Candidate Watch
Most Revealing Fibs: John Edwards

Campaigning in New Hampshire, Dec. 7, 2007.
"America's trade policy has been a complete disaster...We got something America did not need, which is NAFTA, which has cost us millions of jobs."
--John Edwards, Democratic Debate on CNN, Nov. 15, 2007.
John Edwards has embraced economic populism as the central plank of his electoral platorm. In the world according to Edwards, honest, hard-working Americans are for ever being exploited by shadowy lobbying groups and powerful vested interests. It is a black-and-white world in which there is not much room for nuance. The former senator for North Carolina and Democratic vice-presidential candidate sometimes gets so carried away by his rhetoric that he makes mistakes.
An obvious example is his rhetoric on trade. In the Senate, Edwards voted in favor of several trade agreements, including a normalization of trade with China. On the campaign trail, he has slammed the North American Free Trade Agreement as a "failed trade policy that has put "the interests of multinational corporations ahead of the needs of working families." But the statistics he uses to support his argument are highly questionable.
Asked for supporting evidence for the "millions" of lost jobs claim, Edwards campaign spokesman Eric Schultz cited a 2006 study by a leading NAFTA sceptic, Robert Scott of the Economic Policy Institute. But Scott's research does not support the "millions" claim. It does not even support the more modest claim (sometimes made by Edwards) of a loss of "one million jobs." The key line from the EPI analysis is as follows: "Growing trade deficits with Mexico and Canada have displaced production that supported roughly 660,000 (manufacturing only) and 1.0 million (total) U.S. jobs since the agreement took effect in 1994."
Note the word "displaced." Only one third of these jobs were "lost" for good, according to Scott. In the remaining cases, workers found other jobs. Scott says that a majority of these new jobs paid less than the original jobs--but that is a separate debate.
Several other academic studies have been done on the impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement with Mexico and Canada on employment. A 2004 report by the non-partisan Congressional Research Service concluded that NAFTA "had little or no impact on aggregate employment." A 2004 study by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace noted that a total of 525,000 American workers had been certified by the Department of Labor as losing employment due to NAFTA. It was unable to determine how many of these workers found other jobs.
The basic problem in this discussion is that proponents of NAFTA talk only in terms of jobs created," said Sandra Polaski, one of the authors of the Carnegie study. "Opponents talk in terms of jobs destroyed. But there are always pluses and minuses with trade."
The Pinocchio Test
It is still too early to rank the candidates in terms of their overall truthfulness. I have handed out Pinocchios to all the candidates for individual statements that seem at variance with the facts, but will give them a pass this week. Send me any other examples of fibs or exaggerations by Edwards.
Posted on December 11, 2007 at 6:00 AM ET
| Category:
Candidate Record, Candidate Watch, Economy, John Edwards, Other Foreign Policy
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Next: Most Revealing Fibs: Fred Thompson
Posted by: Appalled | December 11, 2007 07:46 AM
Are you the editor's son-in-law?
Posted by: B.Williams | December 11, 2007 07:49 AM
Seriously, are you the editor's son-in-law because this column is consistently analytically frustrating, i.e. a complete waste of space. You ignore Bush's big whoppers in favor of a few nits to pick of the everybody knows it is an opinion statement. If you want to go for it, go for Bush. At least he unequivocally, if you can make out a complete thought, misleads. Start with Iran's nuclear capacity, what was said and when he said it.
Posted by: Sara B. | December 11, 2007 08:16 AM
you have a typo. Read carefully and "skeptically" too.
Posted by: a bea c | December 11, 2007 08:17 AM
Jobs lost means jobs lost. The fact that many or most of those "displaced" workers eventually found other employment doesn't make that statement a fib. Who's checking your facts?
Posted by: | December 11, 2007 08:41 AM
Mr. Edwards' choicest whopper was his assertion that he spent a lengthy period affiliated with the huge Fortress hedge fund in order to study the poor.
Posted by: Richard S. Wheeler | December 11, 2007 08:43 AM
Mr. Edwards' choicest whopper was his assertion that he spent a lengthy period affiliated with the huge Fortress hedge fund in order to study the poor.
Posted by: Richard S. Wheeler | December 11, 2007 08:43 AM
The WaPo's biggest whopper is that this is a factchecking column. If that were so, the daily subject would be the serial liars subverting the Constitution from the White House, Bush and Cheney. (Today's whopper is reported in the NYTimes: Some mid-level attorney approved the destruction of the CIA torture tapes. Right....) Instead it is used to nitpick anyone not on the neocon Christmas card list.
Only a well-off Washington journalist would say that the difference between a well-paid job with benefits and an $8 an hour job with no benefits is not a job loss. Ask the person trying to support a family on Walmart wages.
Posted by: truth | December 11, 2007 08:55 AM
The purpose of this column is to analyze statements by "political candidates, interest groups, and the media," which eliminates Bush and Cheney. Geez, people, get with the program!
Posted by: WashingtonDame | December 11, 2007 09:05 AM
I'll bet fact checker isn't well-off at all. journalists make notoriously little.
Posted by: | December 11, 2007 09:09 AM
I don't know why I even bother to read this column. For example, it considers "The claim that he is the "most electable" Democratic candidate" an exaggeration or a fib. Really, were you that desperate for material for this column? Clinton, Edwards and Obama all think they're "most electable." How is this a fib or exaggeration?
Yank this column. It really hasn't met any of the expectations set for it.
Posted by: cab91 | December 11, 2007 09:21 AM
Hyperbole is not always lying. Edwards claim about Millions of jobs is possible, when one counts a stagnant economy and one talks about quality of work. If a good job is lost (say a factory job) and a bad job gained (say cleaning streets at the mall) the net exchange is negative for workers even if the statistics show a null. Some Statistics show the exchange that way.
The so called "facts" offered by both are opinions backed by numbers.
Posted by: Chris Holte | December 11, 2007 09:31 AM
to the anonymous commenter at 9:09 a.m. Are you really suggesting that Michael Dobbs who has been employed by the Washington Post since 1980, is not being paid well? I call fact check on you.
Posted by: truth | December 11, 2007 09:38 AM
You are ignoring the human aspect. When people or jobs are "displaced" then people lost those jobs. It is use that minces words in order to create a fib that isn't even a fib. It was a direct reading according to your own article. You counter the statistics with a report from the Department of Labor, since when has the department of labor given an accurate employement statistic? The cannot even accurately report how many people have or do not have jobs they depend on people coming to them and reporting. Your title is a lie.
Posted by: Greg | December 11, 2007 09:40 AM
As a rookie journalist, I love reading this column. Dobbs is really doing his homework. And as for the "go for Bush first" claim, I think that what Dobbs is doing is important for the political process -- he's trying to keep candidates honest, which takes some of the spin out of their campaigns.
I like seeing where and how he checked the facts.
As for the whole "check Bush" thing, I think it's fine for Dobbs to check up on intermediate liars -- asking him to check up only on Bush is like asking scientists to only research a cure for cancer(?) because it's the leading cause of death in America.
Posted by: Rita | December 11, 2007 09:41 AM
To start - I'm personally voting for JOE BIDEN who the Washington Post doesn't even mention as a candidate!!
John Edwards may be a liar, but this article is not convincing at all. It looks like it was written by Sean Hannity and reeks of bias and bad arguments. Nafta is a complex issue, and you do about as well promoting it as John Edwards does attacking it. Does that make you a liar? It's all just bickering about statistics, which all depends on where you got the statistics. Statistics are the bread and butter of true liars, and I'd rather shift the discussion to specifics, problems and solutions. Why are medical products made right here in the states so much cheaper to buy in Canada? Why are foreign car companies using more American factories while all of my "American car" parts are made in Mexico? What about farm subsidies? China alone is a discussion area, but jobs lost and jobs created and jobs displaced alone and it's Nafta's fault or no it's normal economics does not tackle the meat of the issue. I know some idiot out there is looking at the trade gains from the plummeting dollar and using it to pat Nafta on the back like they knew it all along.
He rubs me the wrong way too, but it defeats your argument to go on the attack in this way. It just makes your whole article look like partisan trash.
Posted by: Thomas | December 11, 2007 10:24 AM
Rita,
I agree with you. Of the thousands of people I can imagine read this every day - you will always have the nut cases commenting re: above.
Truth: R u kidding about your screen name? Truth? That's quite presumptuous!
Posted by: | December 11, 2007 11:55 AM
really? he made his millions as a trial lawyer by lying?!? i could have sworn he made those millions by exposing the lies of corporations who put a few cents of profit over the lives and well-being of consumers. guess i must be mistaken. then again--no way. it was definitely off of greedy corporations who put greed ahead of people.
Posted by: dcjhw | December 11, 2007 12:16 PM
Looks like Edwards' assertion that he is the most electable Democratic candidate is born out by a new CNN/Opinion Research poll. According to the story:
"On the Democratic side, Edwards performs best against each of the leading Republicans. In addition to beating Huckabee by 25 percent and McCain by 8 percent, the North Carolina Democrat beats Romney by 22 percentage points (59 percent to 37 percent) and Giuliani by 9 percentage points (53 percent to 44 percent)."
So NO Pinocchios on that one, folks.
Posted by: Ancient_Mariner | December 11, 2007 05:25 PM
In reply to Thomas, I am neither attacking nor "promoting" NAFTA in this post Whether NAFTA is good for the U.S. is a complicated subject beyond the scope of this Fact Check. I am merely saying that Edwards can not produce a credible economic study to show that NAFTA has cost "millions of American jobs."
Incidentally, I will be having a live-on line discussion at 12 a.m. Wednesday, and you are free to go at me then. Look forward to your questions and comments.
Posted by: The Fact Checker | December 11, 2007 06:01 PM
One of the (sometimes) valid criticisms the left has of the right is that the right occasionally gets too easy a pass from the media on big national policy issues (e.g., the overly-hyped build-up to war). What shocks me is that these same people on the left scream bloody murder and "go after Bush-Cheney instead" when the media turns its focus on the left even a little. Ignoring the hypocracy and foibles of Democrats does the country no more good than ignoring the hypocracy and foibles of Republicans.
Reading comments from Democrats over the last several months, I've come to the conclusion that they can dish out the critical thinking just fine, but they can't take it from anyone but their own.
Posted by: Longbow | December 11, 2007 06:40 PM
I give the Fact Checker three pinocchios for his analysis. If I lose an apple and find an orange, I have still lost an apple. If I lose a job and find another one, I have still lost a job. That's the fact.
Posted by: Fact Checker Checker | December 11, 2007 10:46 PM
I'm surprised that Fact Checker couldn't come up with some statements from Edwards that aren't a little more questionable. Unlike the Rudy's, Mitt's, and others' outright untruths, Edwards appears to be guilty only of hyperbole. Since when have political candidates been disallowed hyperbole? Politics runs on it.
Posted by: Stonecreek | December 12, 2007 12:32 PM
At least you could have updated the "most electable candidate" fact check. As it turns out, Edwards could be considered a visionary given the latest CNN poll. Fact check that. And I agree, enough twisting the meaning of words. Displaced means Americans lost those jobs to people overseas.
Posted by: BJLeone | December 13, 2007 07:38 AM
The issue with this "fact" is the one-sidedness of the assertion that NAFTA cost "us" (Unions? Whole US? Dem voters?) millions of jobs. Every year millions of people quit their jobs, take new jobs, are fired, etc., and millions of people are hired into new jobs. The real analysis of the impact of NAFTA must consider jobs gained as a result of NAFTA before making an assessment as to whether it was a good thing or not on balance, which would include the benefits of closer commercial ties with neighbors, etc. By attempting to strip the argument down to one aspect of the economic picture, the candidate is guilty of cynical opportunism and dumbing down.
Posted by: Doaproperanalysis | December 13, 2007 11:19 AM
You're accusing Edwards of dumbing down his rhetoric to a nation that allowed GW Bush to occupy the White House for TWO terms? Maybe he isn't dumbing down enough.
Posted by: Get Real | December 23, 2007 03:53 AM
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Don't forget all the lying he did when he was a trial lawyer. He made his millions by lying.