THE HEART OF THE PROBLEM IS FOX(SONS OF MARTHA BRIBIESCAS)HILDEBRANDO BROTHER IN LAW OF CALDERON AND THE SPECTRUM OF RADO AND TELEVISION(TELEVISA LAW).
ALL REPRESENT MILLION DOLLARS AND POWER.
THE DEMOCRACY IS THE SECOND THEME.
ITS SIMPLE.
THANKS

Basically, there was a whole nation-wide conspiracy plot agaisnt AMLO. President Fox was the first to attack, then the powerful Media came along and then Burger King, Mcdonarlds, Coca-Cola and Pepsi Cola (see how pepsi is blue, that proves they are with PAN, Coca Cola has never used the yellow color which also proves they were agaisnt the PRD) and finally there were more than 26 million of malignant Mexican voters, many of them in the cynical middle and high classes who were corrupted and bought by PAN to either vote for PAN or PRI, in reality the PRI only served as a distraction in this terrible plot.

emptyboxes,

That last argument sounded almost clever. Did you come up with it by yourself?

Every day I log on to this blog at every single hour you appear ranting about the inherent dangers behind every single action undertaken by any left-leaning individual.

Don't you have a job to do elsewhere?
(Is supervising this blog your job?)

Hey, fco-- What's your problem? If emptyboxes is feeling a bit anxious about the situation in Mexico, this blog provides a safe place to let off steam and perhaps engage in some intelligent discussion. I am quite concerned about the post-electoral mess as well and it is fun to drop by here now and then to see what people are saying.

I was hoping to find some intelligent defense of AMLO and the PRD. It can be intellectually stimulating to have a good argument over ideas, but very few intelligent lefties have shown up here. Given what AMLO has been doing and saying I am not surprised that many of them would not want to be here trying to defend him.

Perhaps, instead of attacking emptyboxes, you would like to give it a go and tell us where we Calderon supporters got it wrong.

Where did Calderon supporters get it wrong, Goyo? They are rich fascists, all 15 million of them. Until reading this debate, I did not even know we had 15 million rich people in Mexico, maybe the economy is not doing as badly as we thought.

Interesting debate is to be found in the first comment, by Padilla. I personally did not notice any great bias by the electronic media toward PAN, if anything they overstated the support for the PRI. However, assuming for argument's sake that there was bias, A.) the ley telerisa was passed with PRD votes, so complaining about that does not make sense, and B.) the entire union regime was almost uniformly anti-PAN; this antagonism more than compensated for any advantage Calderon got from media bias. As to Fox's in laws, they are probably crooks. Since Fox is not running for anything anymore, that doesn't seem to be anymore of a problem than, say, Bejerano or Ahumada.

Empty boxes, empty arguments. Jerry and Goyo, the usual suspects with nothing new for the audience. It has definitely become "inside baseball" with a tired team with the same old playbook. How about anyone of you three becoming more open minded and perhaps taking AMLO's side for a change?

Marco, we would, if we could figure out what his side IS. What kind of fraud was there? Cyber, Source Code or "a la antigua". Were the videos real or false? Does he want the election annulled or not? Are his poll workers honest or corrupt?

Is Fox a "traitor" or the democratically elected president all Mexicans?

What is AMLO's side? I would love to take it... Aparrently even the TEPJF is having trouble figuring out what side AMLO's 800 page complaint takes.

Jerry wrote:
"this antagonism more than compensated for any advantage Calderon got from media bias"

Anybody who followed the media coverage will tell you that most of the media establishment was pro-AMLO.
Televisa was definitely pro AMLO until the very day they realized Calderon had won. This is so simple to check at the Televisa www.esmas.com where they have an online TV section and you can find all the interviews of all candidates there in all Televisa programs, with Lopez Doriga, Loret de Mola, Adela Micha, Denise Maerker, and Victor Trujillo. And you will be surprised to see how AMLO was interviewed there twice as much as Felipe Calderon. Actually, on the very Thursday when IFE announced the results of the counting and almost declared Felipe Calderon winner, Felipe was at Lopez Doriga's program and one of the first things he did was to complain to Doriga that AMLO had been many more times at his program that himself, which embarrassed Lopez Doriga who was quick to point out that this was so because AMLO had been Mexico City's Head of Government but he perfectly knew what Calderon was talking about.
I checked the dates and it was true, during the campaign, AMLO was at Doriga's many more times than Felipe Calderon.

I believe the fact is that both TV Azteca and Televisa were betting on AMLO as he had been the clear favorite for such a long time. Another factor that weighed much in their willingness to favor AMLO was the fact that AMLO was so popular in all DF and surrounding areas, and whoever works or lives there gets the impression this is them same all over the country and could not fathom someone else becoming the next president.
And today, even though Televisa and TV Azteca have changed this. Many other networks who get publicity contracts and other benefits from PRD governments are still campaigning for AMLO. And many other journalists continue doing so. Last week Denise Maerker dedicated 38 minutes to Monreal and right after she only gave 8 minutes to Vazquez Mota to reply to Monreal's accusations.
Denise Maerker has had a permanent campaign pro AMLO, she tries to disguise it by trying to present both sides of the story, but the quality of the questions she asks differs much.
I remember one day, at the height of the Hildebrando scandal, in her afternoon program in Radio Formula network, Claudia Shaunbam was showing all kinds of alleged evidences of corruption about Hildebrando and their alleged contracts received from Felipe Calderon when he was Energy Secretary, and then the incredible, Denise Maerker, in a very hypocrite and unfair way, called Felipe Calderon to get a reply, instead of announcing the motives of her call, apparently She or her staff introduced her as Denise Maerker trying to interview Mr. Calderon, to which he agree only to find out that what Denise wanted was to confront Claudia with Felipe, needless to say as soon as Felipe learned the motives of the interview he hanged up. This technique of trying to downgrade a presidential candidate by having him debate with a low level campaign officer of his political adversaries was put into practice not only by Denise but also by several other pro AMLO journalists, like Carmen Aristegui, who tried to do exactly the same with Mr. Calderon. But they would never have done such a dirty trick to Mr. Obrador. And there were many other examples of biased jounalism, Victor Trujillo ran a complete hour of debate every monday morning where the analists were Julio from la jornada and Raymundo Riva Palacios, sometimes Denise Dresser, sometimes Sergio Aguayo, all these people very well known leftist intellectuals. The one thing that characterized this particular "debate" was that is was all about criticizing Felipe Calderon or President Fox and summarizing AMLO's virtues and great personality. Denise Dresser herself made a cult to AMLO's personality in each of her AMLO apologetically and defensive articles in Reforma.
Then every Wednesday Victor Trujillo will have an interview with Lorenzo Meyer, another leftist intellectual, that would last for another 30 minutes at the very least.

The only ones that noticed being pro Calderon were Pedro Ferriz de Con and Oscar Mario Beteta, there are a few others I do not know and that are in the Radio Formula network, perhaps Jose Cardenas would sometimes show himself being more critical of AMLO. I am sure there are many others who were Pro Calderon. But the national media was clearly more in favor of AMLO.

by the way, I like to thank Goyo for coming out in defense of my right to post my thoughts here. I and should also say that he is very right when he says this is a place to let off steam and engage in intelligent discussion. I must say I enjoy the arguments from all individuals, Jerry, Pasilla, Goyo, Maya, K. Vronna and fco. All comments are welcome. Thank you all!

There is an interesting interview at Carmen Aristegui with AMLO.
You can see for yourselves what a lame and leftist biased journalist she is. She actually becomes an interview facilitator with AMLO.
That what I am talking about.

No hay de que, emptyboxes!

You gave a very thorough rundown of the television news programs and their obvious slant towards Lopez Obrador. I had the same impression, although I had not watched as much as you, nor did I keep close tabs as you did. Still, when I first heard the left complaining about bias against them from the televison programs I was bewildered. I had seen Andres Manuel with Adela Micha and she practically fawned over him.

This attack on the media is the same tactic that has been used in other countries where the radical left needs to find scapegoats. I won't bring up Venezuela or I might be accused of a campaign of lies and inuendo against San Andres de Tabasco.

As for Marco's plea-- why would we take AMLO's side-- even if we could figure out where it is? We have our point of view and if you have one why not state it? Maybe there is something we are missing here, if so, tell us what it is.

You can start by addressing what AMLO said to the New York Times-- cited here by our host, Ceci Connolly, whom we should thank again. He implies there will be social unrest if there is no recount. This seems to mean that if the tribunal established by law to ajudicate these disputes looks at the weak evidence his team provided and decides it is not necessary to have a full recount, all infierno will break loose.

Already, in Mexico City, we are seeing signs of hostility against anyone who looks "fresa" or who might be perceived as a person who voted for Calderon. I know of people who falsely claim they voted for AMLO just to avoid trouble and get through the day and they are not rich people, they are lower middle class, working people and small business owners.

Mexico's best hope lies in policies that aim to expand the middle class. If AMLO gets his way the small, but growing middle class will be crushed and what they have earned will be distributed to the poor, with some gratuities falling into various pockets along the way. Why else are all those old PRI gangsters hanging around AMLO?

One of the errors AMLO committed so often was to blame President Fox for all the wrongs and problems in the country, and to paint the country as social disaster in need of prompt rescue, it was the same error commited by Demetrio Sodi in his DF Campaign where he painted the DF like a complete disaster zone.
Many PRD people are still fixed on those false concepts.
While it is of course true there are many poor people in our country, it is also worthy to point out that progress has been made in many areas, our economy has not grow but inflation has been kept at a historical low, same for interest rates, our currency has remained strong through these years, our financial markets are stable and our federal reserves are at historical heights, protecting us from a run or speculation on our currency.
These factors cannot be taken slightly, low inflation and interest rates allow for longer and softer credit terms, which trickle down in greater access by low income households. A strong currency, while maintaining our imports high, have also guaranteed our people's saving and fostered their purchasing power. Stronger stock markets guarantee a fresh resource of money into ever expanding enterprises that find venture capitalists, domestic and foreign, willing to invest in new ideas and technologies.
I have seen blue collar workers purchasing new cars with less than 5 thousand as money down and as low as 900 pesos monthly payments. You can buy a Chevy, or Peugot under these conditions. These was unseen in the Mexican economy.
Some socialist philosophers argue that these are all materialistic goods that contribute nothing to the well-being of the families of these blue collar workers, but I doubt these same philosopher will ever attempt to take their mothers to the supermarket in a bicycle. We prefer to take her in a car if we have the possibility to do so.
The truth is, although our economy has lacked growth, we have had stability, and this stability allows us to plan ahead and invest in our future. We can project, forecast, plan and be confident of our future.
I believe we are all in for a happy ending, Felipe Calderon will be declared elected president, with 207 congressman, plus 8 from Nueva Alianza, plus the PRI and Verde, he will reach a mayority capable of consitutional reforms, Fiscal Reforms, Labor Flexibility Reforms, Markets, Etc. and our economy is bound to grow and to provide better opportunities for all Mexicans. Why should fail to all these?

Check out what a new participant, 'Publius' presents for a recount and a questioning of the election with a well structured post, at the newer blog "More Surprises in Store?", aquí mismo. I guess my plea for a more respectful AMLO viewpoint was answered. Now, if pasilla & maya0 will take the hint and copy Publius, as well as emptyboxes & to a lesser extent, Jerry & Goyo, we'll have a real debate and not a microcosm repeat of the gringo-style miércoles-slinging campaign.

Empty boxes makes a good point. Someone in the previous thread was claiming that low interest rates, for example on cars, do "no good for the poor worker". That is garbage. Historically low interest rates have converted a whole new segment of the Mexican population into home owners, including people down to salaries as low as 5 minimum wages (which is really 2 and a half, if both husband and wife work). These people never had a prayer of legally owning a home during the inflationary PRI years. (And they have converted the areas in the outskirts of Tijuana into a beehive of new housing developments, which, unlike "colonias populares" come complete with public services and title to the property. They do not, however, come with a "lider" or "cacique" of the PRI or PRD, which may be why the perredistas do not like them.) The houses these upwardly mobile working class people are buying are by no means mansions, but they are THEIRS. And it beats a paper shack.

For this we can thank a monetary policy that has stabilized the exchange rate, brought inflation down last year to a rate lower than in the United States, and the lowest long term interest rates in my lifetime.

Why am I pointing all this out? Because, I cannot for the life of me figure out how AMLO is going to pay for all of his social programs. Cutting burocrats pay? Get real. What will the unions say? Either petroleum goes to $100 a barrel and stays there for his whole six years, or he will have to print the money. And the minute he turns on the printing presses, kiss all the macroeconomic stability, and dreams of home ownership, goodbye. Of course, the workers will always be able to, under the guidance of a PRD "lider", parachute in and squat somewhere.

The PRD claims, for those who are willing to listen objectively:

((1)) The IFE failed to name a likely winner on the night of the election, even though it's calculations had Felipe Calderón (FC) ahead of Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) by 1% of the vote, a respectable 400,000 vote figure, given that the PREP count system was established with the presumption of a margin of error of 0.03 percent.
((2)) On July 3rd, the IFE admitted that this difference had narrowed to 0.6%, because of the inclusion of results from a large number of voting stations left out of the original PREP count. This occurred only after AMLO had objected that such voting stations still not being counted.
((3)) There were 283,448 less votes reported as cast for President (from any party) than reported for senatorial positions. In many 'adjacent' voting stations ("contiguas" in the IFE's parlance), there no votes were reported as cast for President at all.
((4)) In states where AMLO was leading, the difference between votes reported for senatorial positions and for President was the largest (in favour of senatorial ballots) and this discrepancy harmed AMLO. In states where Felipe Calderon was leading, the difference between reported votes for senatorial positions and those for president were the largest (in favour of Presidential votes) and this favouredof Felipe Calderon. The extremes were in Tabasco (96,450 votes less for President) and Nuevo León (41,290 votes more for President). In the six states where AMLO led, votes for president were less than those for senator by 313,882. In states where Felipe Calderon led, ballots for President outnumbered those for senators by 111,178.
((5)) After the PREP, [[AWK & unclear] the next stage of the electoral process was the count by district]], which involved a count of tally sheets in all 300 districts. [In this process...,] councils are authorized to open ballot boxes for a manual recount of votes [under... [what limited conditions: "a majority vote of..."]]. AMLO's coalition demanded that 50,000 boxes be opened on the grounds of irregularities visible to varying degrees. District councils only authorized the opening of 2,700 boxes. This 'manual recount' gave AMLO an additional 102,000 votes.
((6)) The district-by-district count resulted in the [WC: amendment] of many discrepancies, first identified on July 2nd-3rd, between tally sheet resultsand the PREP results as well as the inclusion of voting stations that had been left out of the PREP. The result was an upward adjustment in votes for all three candidates, including Roberto Madrazo. But in this count AMLO's upward revision versus the PREP was 16.3% above the upward revision of votes for Felipe Calderon and 15.8% over the upward revision for Roberto Madrazo, both significant differences, especially in light of the few boxes that district councils allowed to be opened.
((7)) In the end, the district count proved wrong the presumption of a small margin of error in the PREP: the correction over the first PREP result was 8.7 percent.
((8)) Intervention of President Fox in favour of FC and against AMLO has been documented extensively, and the question of its constitutionality now rests with the Electoral Tribunal.
((9)) Intervention of Secretary of Communication in favour of PAN in this election is also documented, and and the question of its legality now rests with the Electoral Tribunal.
((10)) Claims that the electronic counting of votes was biased, or otherwise abnormal, and therefore showed paths not typical of stochastic processes have been submitted by professional analysts and mathematicians, and may justify further enquiries.

Posted by: Publius | July 25, 2006 10:24 PM

I copied Publius' post and brought it to this, new, thread. Let us now examine his 8 points.

1. IFE failed to name a likely winner on the night of the election. So what. The vote count was within the margin of error, and if IFE HAD named a winner, AMLO would be complaining about that too.

2. PREP count was bad. Meaningless, the PREP has no bearing on the actual election results.

3. Senatorial/Presidential vote differentials. This needs to be investigated.

4. Same as 3, but worse in Tabasco. The problem here is that Tabasco is so OVERWHELMINGLY anti-PAN (Calderon--3.63% of the statewide vote) that any fraud would have had to be detected on July 2. Unless the PAN bribed ALL the PRD poll watchers. As to NL, investigate it.

5. Open 50,000 polling boxes. ILLEGAL without a TEPJF order. And, the 2,700 polling boxes that were opened did indeed add to AMLO's total. Unfortunately for AMLO they added even more to Calderon's, and his margin went from .56 to .59

6. Please clarify 6

7. Please clarify 7

8. Fox intervened This means that the election was conducted under unfair conditions, and regardless of the vote count is invalid. The only possible remedy here is anullment, something AMLO claims not to be seeking.

9. SCT intervened, to favor the PAN. Where? How?
8 and 9 also of course open the door for the PAN to demand anullment if AMLO wins the recount on the basis that the GDF also intervened, on a more blatant scale, and continues intervening today with the "voto por voto" mantas on public buildings.

10. Claims of cyber fraud. The problem here is these are claims. Not one shread of evidence to substantiate these claims has been presented.

Check out the article at the LA Times:

"Will Mexico Soon Be Tapped Out?
A rapid demise of Cantarell, the country's chief oil field, could pose a serious economic threat.
By Marla Dickerson, Times Staff Writer
July 24, 2006"

At:

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-pemex24jul24,1,6754747.story?coll=la-headlines-business

Then tell me how anybody poses to get their programs financed.

That was mine, sorry, too old to be up this late.

I saw that article today. Scary. Another reason to become a "vende patrias" (That term is so, like, PPS.) and open PEMEX to competition, privatize, do something. Or there will be very little Patria left to Vender.

But, we can always fire up the money printing presses.

We should convert PEMEX ownership to public shares, distribuite the shares amongst the population and have all adult Mexican decide what to do with PEMEX.
We should the same with CFE.

Julio Hernandez from La Jornada has come out a most fantastical and cocaine article today. It shows the kind of silly conspiracy theories about an alledged electronic in the PREP, according to Julio, this was in order to create the impression that Felipe Calderon was winning.

What is absurd is how he presents two different graphs from two different moments, first during the PREP, when the information was fed into the system as it was coming out of the poll stations. This first graph shows the PREP favoring Felipe Calderon. He does not explain that this was so due to the fact that PAN votes concentrate in the urban and most communicated areas of the country, with the exception of DF and some areas in the south.

The second graph shows the District Counting of the votes. We all remember how the PRD representatives resisted and acted very slowly in regions of the north and central states that favored Felipe Calderon while they speed up the counting in the south regions where the voting favored them mostly.

Any serious statistics analist will tell you that the counting at the districts could never have followed the tendency it showed without this political manipulation from PRD.

When Ciro Gomez Leyva was covering the District Counting on that Wednesday July 5, he actually got a scientist from UNAM to explain about the tendency of the District Counting, and the scientist said it was not possible because the votes had already been counted and the counting of the actas was not spontaneous anymore.

But many PRD followers eat this kind of crap everyday from Julio and other cocaine pseudo-analists.

In such a huge election as we had last July 2, many assumptions can be made from both sides of the post-electoral conflict.
One thing stands clear though: If there ever was any fraud, how come it only affected AMLO but never the Congress or Senate? How come it did not affect Madrazo or Alternativa or Campa? They have not complained at all.

You can make as many assumptions as Dan Brown did with his Da Vinci Code. The problem with conspiracy theories is that it is always so difficult to prove them wrong. A doubt was cast upon the United States presidential election back between Al Gore and George Bush, and to this day, many hardcore democrats will still tell you there was fraud and Al Gore was the real winner.
This will happen again every time there is a close result. And there will always be people unhappy on one side or the other.

What is not normal is to have a Candidate and his party who repeteadly declared during the campaign and in the very last day, that the electoral process had been clean and transparent and that the institutions and the media coverage had been fair with all candidates, and there are many videos from interviews of AMLO and Camacho Solis and Monreal and Duarte declaring with Trujillo, Denise Maerker, Adela Micha, Lopez Doriga, etc. that bear witness to this fact. And now these same people, upon learning the results did not favor them, are trying desperately to build a case of Election Fraud. At first they said it was all cibernetic and a bunch of radicals from UNAM came up with all kinds of Da Vinci Code algorithms. One week later, Jose Woldemberg laughs at these silly theories and sets the record straight: All you need to demonstrate you won is the Actas from your representatives. The very next day AMLO comes out and says: "The fraud was not cibernetic, it was in the Actas, they falsified the actas".
The one little problem with this last allegation is that the actas were filled by more than 500 thousand citizens at different times who could not coordinate amongst each other in order to come out with such close result, and furthermore the counting was carried out in front of representatives from PRD, PAN, PRI, Alternativa, Nueva Alianza and also in front of local and international observers from Europe and Canada and USA who have plenty of experience in observing elections.
Mr. Obrador and the PRD are now saying that their own representatives were bought out by PAN officials.

Never mind showing a hundred boxes full of copies and saying: Look, these are the evidences of the fraud.

I believe it is the time to take desicions. IFE is the very cornerstone of our democracy. I trust IFE. I trust Ugalde. I trust TRIFE. If the TRIFE orders a recount or anulls the election or simply declares AMLO the new president, well that's it. If they declare Felipe Calderon, well that's it. But they cannot be subject to blackmail from anybody.

Can some tell me where Publius got his statement in point number three?

((3)) "In many 'adjacent' voting stations ("contiguas" in the IFE's parlance), there no votes were reported as cast for President at all."

I did a quick sampling in the IFE´s report of the district count for President in the first 8 states casilla por casilla and could not find one with zero votes for president. This includes continguas and extraordinarias. I consider this a fairly large sample and would expect to find at least one, if what is stated is true (many). The ones that had less votes were almost always extraordinarias. But, that is expected because some of them are far from the main population (airports) .

Hi everyone, first post, but I've enjoyed watching you guys spar for a while now.

My comment is really a question: I've rarely seen comments by any analyst regarding a specific part of the electoral law: If 20% or more of the electoral packages are opened, the election is autmomatically annulled. The "automatically" part might or might not need ratification by the TRIFE, but my question is this: Why is this issue not mentioned more? If I interpret this correctly, it would mean that if the Coalicion succeeds in getting a full recount then there would be no point to actually doing the recount, as the election would already be null and void. This might actually be part of their strategy to anull the election.

Would somebody with a little more knowledge of the law comment on this, please?

The complexity of all these allegations makes it nearly impossible to demonstrate whether they are true or false as it is very easy to pick up a ballot and claim the legitimacy of any of the eleven signatures. The very reason why the votes are counted and sealed and the Acta is issued is for fear of manipulation after the elections day. So the army protects the ballots, but they ballots are only evidence and the Actas are the certificates of these votes cast on election day. The votes were counted Vote by Vote by the very neighbours and people of the same community that cast them in the first place. And the counting is a final number provided by this local and autonomous authority. It is to be trusted unless serious evidences denounced by the same local neighbours who participated in the counted. If the PRD representatives denounced irregularities on election day, they should have the record of Protests sheets. Fact is, they don't have any and their impugnation is seriously compromised by this very first and essential requisite.

The point is, PRD is trying to compromise IFE's credibility, but in the process the credibility of PRD has also been compromised by irresponsibly presenting false evidences and fabrication of false situations.

I have no problem deciding who to believe.

My problem is with the biased journalists and analists who do not question past history of conflicts and legal problems and scandals and violent protests of the Candidate demanding another vote counting.

Therein may lie many answers to todays allegations of AMLO.

Should the country burn down in social unrest as AMLO, Camacho Solis and Ortega and the others are trying to blackmail us, they must know the first one to get burned to pieces will be the PRD Party structure, because is setting an ugly precedent that will persist in memory of Mexican voters and they will not win in 2012, nor in 2018 but until a new generation of Mexicans with new and fresh and forgiving memory goes to vote.

They already paid a high price for past conflicts they created, and for years, the PRD had been famous for their internal violence.
It is true PAN resorted and practiced civil resistance in past times, but back then there was not IFE or TRIFE and they never promoted violence. The people rewarded them with more votes and political influence.

PRD should have learned this lesson. It is a pity to see them going down so bad.

It is interesting to see people like Camacho Solis, Munoz Ledo and others calling anyone, much less Fox, a "traitor to democracy". In 1988, real traitors to democracy, PRIistas like Camacho Solis, Munoz Ledo and others stole a presidential election. In 1989, when the PAN finally won (let me rephrase that, PAN had been winning since at least 1977, when the PAN had its victory recognized) in Baja California, traitors to democracy like Camacho Solis and Munoz Ledo did their darndest to steal that election. What scum, there is no other word for them.

I am glad to see the oil issue being discussed here. Energy experts have been saying that Mexico's major field is in decline for some time and that there are other untapped reserves that Pemex cannot exploit because it does not have the investment (the government sucks up most of its profits) nor the technology, which is available in Houston, but Mexico and North Korea are the only two countries in the world that do not allow private risk contracts in energy development.

I have always thought this "el petroleo es nuestra" business was bunk. In Alaska they set up a fund from energy profits and each year distribute checks to each and every citizen of the state. When did any ordinary Mexican citizen get anything from Pemex? Certainly some Mexicans have become rich off oil money, but not the average Jose. In Venezuela, people pay pennies for their oil. At least there they can say their state-owned company provides them some benefit. Mexicans pay much more than people across the border in the United States and, in fact, I recall hearing about Mexicans going over the border to buy gasoline in Belize because it was cheaper. What does that tell you about all the benefits from this closed industry?

As Jerry suggested, perhaps AMLO thinks he is going to finance his big social welfare programs with oil money, a la Chavez. (ooh, I feel like such a hatemonger mentioning the wild man from Caracas in the same breath with Saint Andres, the messiah). But if something is not done soon to open the energy sector, Mexico's production will go into sharp decline. Pemex is also facing bankruptcy because so much of its money is siphoned off to the government, which needs the money because the PRI-PRD alliance in Congress rejected Fox's fiscal reform proposals.

As for the election and AMLO's strategy of constant marches-- I offer this from today's column by Sergio Sarmiento:

Benito Mussolini conquistó el poder en Italia el 29 de octubre de 1922 gracias a "la marcha sobre Roma" de sus camisas negras. Adolf Hitler promovió su ascenso al cargo de canciller de Alemania en 1933 también gracias a una serie de manifestaciones. Juan Domingo Perón, quien era uno de los golpistas de 1943 en Argentina, se consolidó en el poder por la gran manifestación de Buenos Aires del 17 de octubre de 1945. Hugo Chávez también se sirvió de marchas para conseguir el poder en Venezuela.

Un demócrata, al contrario de un fascista, busca alcanzar el gobierno a través de elecciones democráticas y de respeto a la ley. En ese sentido Calderón ha sido más demócrata que López Obrador, quien ha cuestionado los procedimientos democráticos legales y ha montado manifestaciones para presionar a las autoridades del país, a los funcionarios del IFE y a los magistrados del Tribunal Electoral.

It is interesting seeing Sarmiento's column. He should be warned that ONLY PRD supporters are allowed to call their opponents fascists, if any one else does it, it is hate speech.

But the link to fascism is interesting. It brings up a bigger question. Who is left and who is right? Who is the conservative candidate? Who is the progressive candidate?

Conservatism is defined broadly as a nostalgia for the past, and wanting to maintain the status quo, politically and economically. If change happens, it is usually to recapture a better past. Conservatives tend to be afraid or at least worried about the future. Conservatives are usually nationalistic and xenophobia is often a tenet of their rule (vis Hitler, Mussolini, Tojo, the generals in South Korea 25 years ago, Pinochet...)

Liberalism (classical, not American) is considered an openess to change and new ideas, and a desire to see what the future holds. Liberals tend to patriotic but not xenophobic.

This begs the question of what change, if any AMLO represents from 70 years of PRI rule? (Fox can be considered an interregnum, and, thanks to congress, things haven't changed much under him anyway.) AMLO and his supporters seem nostalgic for a statist past where, if there was no economic progress, at least everyone knew his place, and there were few surprises. With all their screaming about globalization, they do not just seem worried about the future, it terrifies them. Some of their comments about PEMEX, and what is going on in Oaxaca seem distinctly anti-foreigner.

So, who is the true conservative in this race? And, since we know that all conservatives are fascists, who is the true fascist?

Look what Roger Bartra, a well respected leftist has to say about AMLO:

"Lo que más me duele --porque yo vengo de ahí, soy un hombre de izquierda-- es el comportamiento del Partido de la Revolución Democrática y sus aliados: me parece muy conservador y con importantes facetas antidemocráticas. Está poniendo en tensión las cosas. Lo que encabeza AMLO es un fenómeno de populismo. Yo creo que es un fenómeno populista caciquil; él suena más como cacique, como caudillo, pero le llamo conservador porque de alguna manera recupera muchos de los hábitos y de las ideas del antiguo régimen, del Ancien Régime, para emplear un término acuñado por la Revolución Francesa."

"Desgraciadamente la cultura priista yo la veo como el tumor maligno que llegó a enfermar la cultura política del país, y que está haciendo metástasis --por decirlo así-- en los espacios de la izquierda. Eso es muy lamentable porque me parece que es la causa por la cual López Obrador no ganó las elecciones con la gran ventaja que le atribuían las encuestas de hace un año o menos. Ese discurso populista conservador desgastó a su base electoral y mostró una agresividad terrible contra la clase media, de manera innecesaria. Esta clase tiene una gran sensibilidad y cuando es agredida irradia a otros sectores esa animosidad y esos miedos. A mí no me sorprende el resultado. Yo creo que AMLO hizo una política de tipo conservador, de carácter suicida, que minó las bases que había logrado, sobre todo por no haber hecho a tiempo un viraje hacia el centro. Quiero decir, hacia posiciones reformistas, socialdemócratas, y se mantuvo en una actitud agresiva más simbólica que real."

Now what were you saying about conservatives?

If you take AMLO's plan, and compare it to what Lula is doing in Brazil (export, export, export!!!), or Vazquez in Uruguay (trade agreements with the US, over the loud protests of retrograde leftests in his coalition), or with what Bachalet says she will do in Chile (too early to tell, but all signs look good), there is no comparison. An honest leftist who was told to compare, say, Lula's actions with AMLO's plans, with the names removed, would say there was one progressive plan and one fascist one. And I do not think Lula would be the fascist...

Hey Jerry & emptyboxes, why don't you just admit that you HATE AMLO? regardless that if he might have some good points such as addressing the poor people unlike PAN who is always behind the RICH PEOPLE

You are so blind with all your disgust to AMLO that you are not objective at all.
After reading 3-4 of your posts, one word:

BOOOOOOOOOOOOORING!!!

You guys KNOW everything. I guess you most run for president next time... only if you are mexicans of course.

Joe P, please explain how AMLO is going to "help" poor people. I must have missed that part of the campaign. And saying "primero los pobres" doesn't count, I mean concrete plans. Also, what I really want to know, once you find the concrete plans, is how AMLO is going to finance them. You may think I am joking with you. I am not. Mexican (and Latin American) history if FULL of bold plans by alleged "progressives" to "help the poor". In almost every case, the poor get swamped by inflation and unemployment, and the "progressives" line their pockets. Want specific examples? Mexico under Lopez Portillo. Mexico under Echeverria. Peru under the first incarnation of Alan Garcia. Peru under General Velazco. Ecuador under "el Loco", Nicaragua under Ortega (with the added benefit of child rape by Ortega thrown in.) Cuba. Present day Bolivia and Venezuela. In every one of these cases, apart from added poverty, there was a general loss of liberty, and the middle class, along with the poor, took a bath.

Why should we assume that AMLO will be any different. I wish he was. If I had thought he was, he would have had my vote.

Now, please tell me how relaxing labor laws to make hiring easier will not help the poor. How will modernizing the energy sector not help the poor? (I, who am not poor, have electricity. The newer poor neighborhoods do not...THANKS CFE!) How will improving education by reducing SNTE corruption not help the poor?
These are all PAN ideas, of course. But, then again, Fox, with his promotion of home ownership, did more for the working poor in 6 years than AMLO's friends in the PRI did in 70.

I couldn't resist, Jerry:

"How will improving education by reducing SNTE corruption not help the poor?"

Did you see the nice pictures of "el candidato del cambio" embracing Elba E. Gordillo? Working hard at fighting teachers' union corruption, I guess...

Keep convincing each other, you and emptyboxes, of the glories of the new PAN...

Pasilla, I noticed that you don't seem to contradict the other arguements. And, the Oaxaca SNTE is not exactly a hot bed of radical PANistas, to say the least.

Plus we now have the very, very democratic Tabasco PRD giving us a preview of what they'll do if not appeased.

Like or not, Felipe Calderon was much more intelligent in the way he managed his campaign. He has proven to be a far more effective and pragmatical candidate. He created political alliances with Elba Esther Gordillo and developed more than friendly relations and dealings with most of the PRI Governors and at least with one from PRD. Whether these relations were based on simple ideological coincidences, secret dealings, or for fear of AMLO, we know today that without all these allies Felipe Calderon would have never got as far as he has today, to being on step from becoming the next President.
This tells me that the task at hand was huge and very difficult. He or someone next to him clearly saw, a year or so ago, that AMLO was a candidate to reckon with, so popular, it was necessary something bigger than the PAN to at least challenge his popularity. The campaign was a huge effort and it was necessary to get in the team all social agents akin to PAN's ideology. The PAN itself, united. The President, The Business Community, The Church, many organizations who shared the same values. And of course, all the enemies of Madrazo and AMLO regardless of their political ideology.
And so Felipe did work on it. He came to Nuevo Leon two or three times and had interviews with our governor Nati, he also had interviews with most of the PRI Governors, but specialy with the leader of the TUCOM. He also visited Lazaro Cardenas Batel and his father as well.
And Elba Esther Gordillo was a centerpiece also. And several other labor unions and organizations.
He should thank them all when he arrives to power.
And I believe he gave a lesson to those who underestimated his political skills.

My hope is that he will be able to form alliances and get the reforms the country needs so bad by reaching agreements with the other parties.

I have repeteadly stated here that our Mexican left is anti-semitic and they did not prove me wrong. Carlos Monsivais, Elena Poniatowska, Sergio Pitol, Angeles Mastreta Cristina Pacheco among other pseudo-intellectuals have published an open letter in several newspapers demanding UN to stop Israel attacks and assess the Lebanesse victims.
They failed to mention about the Israeli victims of Hezbolah of the last years.
I should say they are also not a all concerned with the Lebanesse victims, in reality these pseudo-intellectuals are doing this because they depend economically from Carlos Slim generous art and literature sponsorships, of course this is on top of the usual check the get at the Secretaria de Finanzas del Distrito Federal.

emptyboxes, to call Carlos Monsivais, Elena Poniatowska, Sergio Pitol, Angeles Mastreta Cristina Pacheco "pseudo-intellectuals"; can give us a clue of what kind of person you are.

I do not support the PRD or AMLO, but I have taken the time to read one or two things about these people.

I'll bet you one thing, you'll never accomplish anything useful that could compare to these great people. Not in you lifetime. Go ahead with your PANistas fellows and chant "Viva Cristo Rey" and destroy all the books written by these "pseudo-intellectuals"

This was published today:

En una entrevista con la cadena estadounidense Univisión, Andrés Manuel López Obrador dijo que se considera el Presidente de México, a pesar de que en el cómputo oficial de los comicios del 2 de julio quedó en segundo lugar detrás de su rival panista Felipe Calderón.

"Sí, yo soy el Presidente de México. Yo soy el Presidente de México por voluntad de la mayoría", afirmó el candidato presidencial de la coalición Por el Bien de Todos, interrogado sobre si se siente el Mandatario electo.

Now it seems that we have more than one president in Mexico. TEPJF, please make a ruling soon or both of the suspirantes will declare themselves president and we will have three.

Joe P, I do not know what EmptyBoxes has or will accomplish in his life. He may have accomplished many things that are useful. I very much doubt, however that he wishes to accomplish what the intellectuals you mentioned above have. What have these intellectuals managed to accomplish? Well, they served as paid mouthpieces for umpteen PRI administrations, by taking comissions, museum directorates, university positions, and having government owned FCE (who I once worked for, I know) publish their books, despite knowing that no one would buy them. "Lack of democracy" did not seem to bother them then.

What else have they accomplished? Through intellectuals, we have learned what paradises the Soviet Union and Mao's China were. We now know what paradises Cuba and North Korea are. We have also learned how evil the United States is, although that has not stopped our esteemed intellectuals from visiting their whenever possible.

No, I do not think any decent, self respecting human being wants to accomplish what these intellectuals have. Rather, I would assume that the people who post here (like Emptyboxes), for example, may build bridges, construct buildings, deliver babies, teach our children, etc etc. That is to say, they are PRODUCTIVE, which these intellectuals are certainly not.

First of all, I think emptyboxes might have a brain so he can speak for himself, don't you think?

I'm bored about the same stuff you have written already.

PRD = Comunists, evil dooers
PRI = BAD BAD BAD (the only one I agree)
AMLO = Hugo Chavez Clon

PAN = GOOD, zero corruption, democracy, prosperity

I say:

emptyboxes = Jerry B (both full of it)

I suggest both create your own Forum where you can kiss each other butt.

Sooner or later people like you will see that you don't OWN the TRUTH. History will repeat over and over again thanks to you guys.

K Vronna posted a link from the L A Times last night about the glorious future that awaits PEMEX. Here is another L A Times link, about a less than glorious future that awaits TELMEX if the COFETEL gets its way. That fascist Fox has really stuck it to the Mexican consumer again, and this may explain why Carlos Slim backs AMLO.

Mexico Moves to Open Up Phone Market

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-mexphone26jul26,1,415140.story?coll=la-headlines-business

As these rules won't take effect until December, I would assume Slim really wants AMLO as president now.

The article does explain a little why Carlos Slim has supported AMLO. Carlos Slim is the owner of the Wal-Mart Mexican franchise, Telmex, Condumex, Inbursa, Sanborns, Aurrera, Sam's, Vip's Restaurants, Telcel, and an endless list of more Mexican companies, many of them adquired with the help of Salinas and priviledged information from government officials, what many people fail to see is that he is everywhere in our country.

Mr. Slim is a new rich, he got all these companies because of his corrupt dealings with Salinas and many other PRI officials and he got a lot of power by openly buying many congressman, including of course, all the PRD bench in congress. By the way, just a few months ago there was a proposed bill from a PRI Congressman to revise the Telmex contract, guess who oppossed it publicly, the same AMLO, he spoke against it on the very next day, and his PRD congressmen blocked it.
PAN had always been supported by the traditionaly rich families in Mexico, and the PRI system tried to destroy them in an effort to break the PAN base, they nationalized the banks, and created a new breed of rich and millionaire priistas or pro priistas business men, many of them ended up in jail or broke.
But the traditional families who supported PAN and other new business leaders who for some reason had troubles with Slim have always fight back against his growing power and influence.
This election is also about this fight about controlling the Mexican economy. Mr. Obrador has consistently attacked the business leaders who happen to oppose Mr. Slim, everybody knows this is no coincidence, and these business leaders know very well where these attacks come from, so they also support Calderon, this explains those spots on tv from business communities.
The first one and most important business enemy of Slim is Mr. Roberto Hernandez from Banamex and is the one who gets the most insults and public attacks from AMLO, everybody knows Roberto Hernandez and Carlos Slim have bid for the same contracts and privatizations and both has pressured the federal government in many ways to get their bids or interests advanced, in the times of Salinas,Slim always got the contracts, of course, but when Zedillo arrived, he saw the danger that Slim possed to Mexico by trying to control with monopolies entire industries in the country, so there were no more favors for Slim, but Slim got some congressman from PRD and PRI and from there on, Zedillo had a lot of problems, Fox continued with the same attitude towards Slim, the fact is, even international organizations have told the Mexican government to open to more competition and to allow for new business agents instead of having one controlling everything.
Carlos Slim leads a group of business men that depend highly on business with his industrial and financial concerns.
Roberto Hernandez leads a huge group of big, medium size and small business organizations who were behind those tv spots against Obrador and who actively promoted Calderon.

So we see how Lopez Obrador has never attacked or said anything bad about Carlos Slim, when asked about his relation with him, he simply replies: We respect each other.
This mutual respect gave Slim the chance to buy the whole historical center of Mexico City and many other good jewels went to him during Obrador's term. Slim and Obrador gave a museum to Monsivais.
The problem for Slim is that every year the Federal Government imposes more regulations to either restrict his monopoly powers or to open the market for more competition. Mr. Slim is trying to get another six years of protection by getting Obrador to office. Monsivais, Guadalupe Loaeza, Lorenzo Meyer, Granados Chapa, they all perfectly know this. They receive money and position and benefits and honors from being close to Slim.
AMLO will continue attacking Mr. Roberto Hernandez, Gaston Azcarraga and any other Slim business enemy, as long as he gets support from him.
Seems to me like none of them got what they wanted this time.

Joe P.:
I can critisize any public person as much as you can critisize me or Jerry.
Fact is, there are people who honestly write what they think, and then you read them, and there are people who write and dishonestly fabricate situations to make you think what they want you to believe.
Take for example that hypocrite Cuban singer Silvio Rodriguez, he sings wonderfully and writes some good Ortega y Gasset metaphors. The problem is, when you get down to the very fact that Silvio has never said anything about the condition of having a dictator, Fidel Castro, running the lives of the 10 million people in the island for more than 40 years. No, never, so the Ortega y Gasset inspiration and ideas, what are they? What then does he want to say? It is all brain-washing my friend. The same happens with Pablo Neruda, who entirely converted his Walt Whitman inspired and copied poetry into an ode to Stalin, that great democrat.
I believe in honest thinking. I read and I am free to analize where it comes from. I know people who only read La Jornada because it fits their ideology and when they read Reforma they feel bad, they are like sheep who need to be guided, they are not getting informed, they are getting brainwashed.

I am open to changing who I support. Can one of the AMLO supporters out there PLEASE, give us some good reasons to support him. Or at least refute the arguments that he is surrounded by PRI dinosaurs, seems to be paranoid, and has not explained how he is going to finance his plans??? Pretty please? And, if it could be done without name calling, that would be even better. There is nothing like calling someone a fascist to effectively shut down rational debate.

I am not working very hard these days, and to keep from falling asleep at work, play on the internet. I searched the words "El Yunque", "fascista", "fascismo" and "racista" on La Jornada's web site. Each returned literally hundreds of articles, the gist of which was that the PAN and everybody which supports it, as well as anyone who dares to criticize AMLO, his supporters, and most especially his intellectual supporters was one or more (usually all) of the above. I then did the same thing on El Universal for "comunista" and found almost nothing. I would have liked to search Reforma or El Norte, but they make you pay (fascist pigs.) to access their web page.

What does this tell us about the level of debate being promulgated by AMLO's supporters, who I do not even want to call leftists, because that is an insult to honest and well meaning people who support left wing causes?

All these complaints about name calling being bandied about, and yet I cannot think of (and please point anything I am missing out to me) one instance where Calderon, Fox, or any high PANista made a personal attack on AMLO. Nor called him a traitor. Nor threatened his family. They did compare him to Hugo Chavez, but if Hugo Chavez is so great, why is this bad? Furthermore the PRD compared Calderon to Franco, so why complain?

I am getting genuinly worried, because it takes two sides to have a rational discussion. Vituperative name calling, threats, busting up private businesses because they supported the "wrong" candidate (and notice that no one from the PRD is bothering TELMEX installations) and general intolerance makes this impossible. Maybe the PAN is no better. Maybe. But, without listening to the two sides debate this, it is impossible to tell.

There is a very real danger that this is going to end badly. However the TEPJF rules, I think the PAN will accept it, they have given no indication that they will not. Will the PRD, if it is against them? If Calderon DOES end up the winner, with or without a recount, as the TEPJF determines, how long is AMLO going to keep up his demonstations and semi-violent activities that are hurting a lot of law abiding citizens of all political stripes? And, how long is the government and society going to stand for it. At some point it is going to either stop, or it will be stopped. And that is what worries me.

Flames are being lit and passions are being aroused that, if not quenched soon, are going to have a bad end. AMLO has basically zero support in the northern half of the country, and even in the south, outside of the DF and environs his support is minimal. If final court rulings go against him, he cannot win, and must know this. So, why is he continuing?

I should clarify that AMLO had plenty of support in the south on July 2, he won all the southern states except Yucatan. But, there has been little evidence of support for his fraud allegations. Michoacan? Home of Lazaro Cardenas Batel. Zip. Nada Ditto Zacatecas, another PRD stronghold. Even in Chiapas...nothing.

As mentioned above, I am not impressed with AMLO. He had a real chance to be a statesman, and set himself as the leading candidate in 2012, and has blown it. That is no loss. What no one seems to be realizing here is that he is also opening the door for the PRI to return. We will all notice that the PRI is being very quiet. Madrazo has said nothing beyond some polite platitudes. They are standing back and letting the PRD and the PAN beat each other up, and I will bet everyone here money that, starting with the Veracruz elections next year, the PRI is going to present itself as the "rational middle" between crazy perredistas and crazy PANistas. The PRI should be dead (and good riddance). AMLO's actions are giving it a second chance at life. And that is truly unforgiveable.

"I am not working very hard these days..."

Jerry B.

It shows, it really shows!

For all you who have a little time on your hands, try reading Enrique Krauze's article in today's Post. Maybe it'll stimulate some discussion.

What's so new about Enriquito Krauze text? He seems to repeat the same psychobabble, half-truths and innuendo that we have been reading in this blog. What surprises me is how he, a historian, dares to predict the future. The editorial looks to me a lot like PAN talking points. I'm just going to comment one of the twisted facts that he publishes, that of the AMLO "menace" during the July 16 demonstration, because I find it particularly illustrative of the disqualifying tactics of some PAN sympathizers; AMLO said (in a rough translation):

"I encourage him (Calderon) to reflect, for himself, for his close family, for his closest collaborators, that the spot of a crooked election is not washed out, not even by all oceans water."

(The reference to people was an ad lib, because it doesn't appear in the text of the speech published by "La Jornada" and "El Universal").

Almost a fatwa, right? As far as I'm concerned, AMLO was talking about the preservation of Calderon's good name. That's all. For those who interpret this as a "menace", I would reply, as we say in Spanish: "el león cree que todos son de su condición..."

I'm really tired of these rightwing fascist comments about Patricia Mercado, like these that were in an editorial a few days back that show what retrograde minds can cook up. Sarcastic, shallow criticisms from these kinds of bigots (look at what's said about "los marginales") just go to show what progressive ideas have to fight against. Sounds like a bunch of "cristero" ranting to me. What cynicism!

"El Partido Alternativa Socialdemócrata y Campesina, fruto de la insistencia protagónica de Patricia Mercado, ex trotskista, ex feminista, ex contracultural, ex activista de causas radicales.

Mercado, exhibió su infinita piedad ante "los marginales" (consumidores de mariguana, mujeres que abortan, gays y lesbianas)

Se dio tiempo ideológico para incurrir en la frivolidad y enriqueció el debate de los candidatos presidenciales con un vestido rojo a tal punto incandescente que le impedía a los espectadores fijarse en sus ideas (las que llevaba)

Le respondía a Radio Fórmula algo en la índole de: "Nuestra propuesta es de alternativa porque tocamos asuntos que nadie más toca, como el empleo, la seguridad, los problemas agrícolas, los emigrantes y la educación y los índices de criminalidad en la colonia Condesa" (así no lo dijo, pero nadie tampoco podría recordar sus palabras)."

¿como financió AMLO sus programas sociales en el Distrito Federal a pesar de las reducciones de presupuesto?
Respuesta.- Austeridad y mejor recaudación fiscal.( chequen la página de la Secretaría de Hacienda www.shcp.com.mx AMLO pagó 15,000 millones de pesos de deuda que le dejaron anteriores gobiernos y pidió prestados 14,000 millones)

K Vronna, where did that quote about Mercado come from?

Raul P. E., what you mention is nice, but financing the GDF is one thing, since a significant portion of public services are financed (subsidized) by federal taxpayers (predominantly northern states) and do not have to be paid for the the DF.

On a national level, how exactly is he going to force "austeridad" on a bunch of retrograde PRI dominated unions? As to "mejor recaudacion fiscal", does this mean the north is going to get to pay even more? Or will he be putting IVA on food and medicine?

Incidentally, K Vronna, I read Krauze's column. Much of what is in it sounds like what I posted last night. Did he copy me?
I also read another article, in yesterday's post OP-ED called "the coming oil glut". This ought to make PEMEX in particular and Mexico in general tremble. Especially if AMLO gets in power and is counting on the present oil prices lasting into infinity.

Good point, Jerry B, we have seen oil prices peak and then crash before and it would be nice to see it again, not only because of the help it would be to consumers, but because it would pull the rug out from under Chavez in Venezuela and force Mexico to deal with a looming problem that politicians have preferred to ignore.

As for Krauze, he might be reading this blog, who knows? In any case, he got it right and put it in very clear terms--

"If the PRD candidate had simply implemented this legal strategy, his behavior would not have unforgivably sullied the process or undermined Mexico's fragile democracy. But as might have been predicted, López Obrador wasn't satisfied with legal action. Just as he's always done, he had to go for broke -- resorting to "ad terrorem" methods."

This is just what I said in a recent answer to an AMLO supporter here-- we are not questioning his right to challenge what he sees as irregularities, but we are challenging his deceit and his threats against individuals as well as Mexican institutions. I see a bad storm coming and I just wish more AMLO supporters would see the light and start backing away from this guy before irreversible damage is done to the country.

I admit to be truly fascinated not only by the amount of the postings but by the length of each piece of mussings by Jerry B. and emptyboxes. Both of you guys, are you being paid for what you do? Are you really thinking that you are steering public opinion by writing all this one-tracked hollow arguments? Every time anyone contests your points or brings to the discussion arguments or evidence like Pasilla or by Publius, you rush to disqualify them without first addressing the merits embeded in their points. By doing this, you are depriving the rest of us from engaging in a meaningful discussion and you scare away other people from participating with your low level refute-all approach.

Truly guys, dont take me wrong but you display the national attitudes that have brought the country to this sorrow state of affairs.

One last suggestion, get a new "alias" - or better still, give your real names -and re-engage in the conversation with a more analytical approach.

I think Goyo has got a good point here when he says that most of us are not questioning AMLO for pursuing a legal path to try to revert the results and win.

I and any reasonable person in the world would do exactly the same. I would not have accepted the results. But resorting to lies is not an option.

By the way, Have you guys heard that many of the current congressmen and senators have been diagnosed with an illness that spread all over the house of representatives and is called "SIHDA" and is making some congressmen to even think about leaving the country far away.
The name of it is SIHDA, Sin Hueso Despues de Agosto, (without a bone after August) and apparently the representatives are about to collect their last check.
But the synthoms began a few weeks ago: chills, and ostheoporosis, aparently it attacks the bones.
The hardest part of it it's the cure: They will have to find an honest way to support their households!.

Just spotted this in El Norte:

Ciudad de México (27 julio 2006).- Los legisladores federales electos Ricardo Monreal, del PRD, y José Murat, del PRI se reunieron hoy para dialogar sobre la posibilidad de una alianza en la defensa del voto por voto.

En entrevista, el ex Gobernador de Zacatecas confirmó el encuentro -realizado en un restaurante de la zona del Ángel de la Independencia--, y reconoció que los perredistas están buscando alianzas para fortalecer su lucha postelectoral.

¿Se reunió hoy con Murat?

"Si, me he reunido con mucha gente para conversar sobre el momento político que vive el País. Estamos haciendo un llamado a las fuerzas progresistas del país para que se sumen a la propuesta de dar certeza y legalidad al proceso electoral, para que juntos pugnemos por la transparencia, por el voto por voto y casilla por casilla", dijo.

If Jose Murat is part of the progressive forces in our country, we are in deep trouble. This is really scraping the bottom of the barrel.

Ricardo Monreal and Murat have been friends for a long time and Monreal won't get any far from this little interview.
The PRI is perhaps the party to gain more in the remote possibility of an Election Anullment.
But the strong PRI Governors from Central and North Mexico will never allow this to happen. And the PRI knows they need the economic support from many PRI Businessmen who will quickly turn away from the PRI if they support the radicalization of the post electoral conflict.
Monreal and others in the PRD have been trying hard with all parties unsuccessfuly. Alternativa was not interested, as it got many people who left the PRD and joined her in hope a real moderate and modern left. Nueva Alianza is a PAN Satellite party, forget it. PRI made its position clear from the very next day after the elections and they perfectly know that PRD is their real enemy. It is the PRD where all those labor unions and popular organizations have gone. The loss of the PRD is the gain of the PRI and viceversa. PAN takes aways vote but their voter base is completely different.

Wrong again emptyboxes, the forces at the PRI are moving but...in the opposite direction. Indeed, the PRI governors from the north who, by the way, betrayed Madrazo, wanted Calderon's triumph to become a fait accompli on July 3rd. This was only avoided because Madrazo refused to become the "Zedillo of 2006" in his own words. But, it may come to you as a shocker to learn that a regrouping inside the PRI is ocurring - as we speak - and that they will demand a recount as the "only way to legitimize this election".

Moreover, the copies of the actas and polling stations info. are now flowing smoothly between both parties and....great surprises are to be revealed shortly, along with some compromising telephone conversations.

Are you attending this Sunday's rally at the Fuente de Petroleos? Jerry B. should come, it promises to be very informative and it will help you level your comments.

Saludos

Murat is buddy buddy with Monreal? And the PRD is complaining about Gordillo? Gordillo is an innocent baby compared to Murat and his "auto atentado" of several years ago that cost the life of a Oaxaca state policeman. Maybe he can bring U. Ruiz with him.

"Moreover, the copies of the actas and polling stations info. are now flowing smoothly between both parties and....great surprises are to be revealed shortly, along with some compromising telephone conversations."

Too little, too late my friend.

The Copies of the actas are available from the IFE itself today and any Party can get them. They were very important before the District Counting, when PRD desperately begged PRI to show them theirs and received a NO for an answer.

The copies of the Actas from the PRI are already in PAN hands. They had them from day one, and they as well had those from Alternativa and Nueva Alianza. So, if you think the Actas will show any fraud, forget it. Precisely because Claudia Shaunbam did not find any fraud in the actas is because they claim now that the Actas are false themselves. Of course, and the PRD representatives were also false too as AMLO has repeteadly stated that they were corrupted, yeah right.

The one party that would have benefited mostly from an anullment was the PRI, for they could have the opportunity to run again with a new better candidate. If they had any evidences I have no doubt they would have impugnated the elections. They benefit nothing from the Vote by Vote recount and they know they will get any new friends.

Plus they have a lot to lose. There are many corruption scandals around many PRI Governors and Felipe Calderon can get a pay back easily if they stab him in the back. Wishful thinking Francisco.

Fact is, they did not file an impugnation for the Presidential election, I think they did one somewhere in Yucatan, but very minimal.
And about the tape recordings, isn't it a little late in the game?

You also seem to believe that a recount will benefit AMLO. A recount will only change the results slightly at the very least. Bear in mind the votes were already counted by several people and in front of many people, which does not leave many chances of errors, and the party representatives signed the Actas on election day without filing protest sheets, as is the case of the PRD Party Representatives.
And moreover, many of these countings were taped just like the Salamanca video, which AMLO tried to show as evidence of fraud and the same PRD representative refuted him.
I heard good things about this next informative meeting. The PRD is offering Mexico City tours to a lot of people in many states, they offer to pay for everything, they have buses, and tamales, yellow shirts for the ocassion and everything. I suppossed there are going to be many people touring Mexico city this weekend, specially around the Zocalo, which by the way, cannot hold more than 150 thousand people, I wonder where the DF got the million people figure..
I guess it is good for the local tourist industry. Too bad these people are not there to spend money themselves but rather to receive some from PRD and too bad the PRD is running out of money and won't be able to do this as often as they would like to.
Wishful thinking Francisco.

All Hail The Voice of the Downtrodden! AMLO is really starting to mirror good 'ol Marion Barry. When is HE going to introduce his Gasification machine?

Marion Barry!!! I miss him, D C was so much more exciting when he was mayor. My favorite quotation from him was, after he went to see the Redskins in the super bowl during a blizzard that shut the city down, "People blame me for the blizzard. Well, if it didn't snow, would they blame me for that, too?". Marion, at heart, was a good guy, as long as you kept your hand on your wallet, and didn't demand too much in the way of public services. And he made you LAUGH. At least he did not associate with known crooks and probable murderers like Camacho Solis. AMLO I am not so sure about, and he does not make me laugh.

Marco Beteta, I invite you to see my response above to Publius' points. I think I made good points refuting several of them, but was very clear that at least numbers 3 and 4 should be investigated by the TEPJF. Either they are correct or not, but investigating them benefits everybody.

In cased you missed them, here they are again. Also, can you think of any other logical response than annullment if point 8 is correct? Yet AMLO says he does not want an annullment.

1. IFE failed to name a likely winner on the night of the election. So what. The vote count was within the margin of error, and if IFE HAD named a winner, AMLO would be complaining about that too.

2. PREP count was bad. Meaningless, the PREP has no bearing on the actual election results.

3. Senatorial/Presidential vote differentials. This needs to be investigated.

4. Same as 3, but worse in Tabasco. The problem here is that Tabasco is so OVERWHELMINGLY anti-PAN (Calderon--3.63% of the statewide vote) that any fraud would have had to be detected on July 2. Unless the PAN bribed ALL the PRD poll watchers. As to NL, investigate it.

5. Open 50,000 polling boxes. ILLEGAL without a TEPJF order. And, the 2,700 polling boxes that were opened did indeed add to AMLO's total. Unfortunately for AMLO they added even more to Calderon's, and his margin went from .56 to .59

6. Please clarify 6

7. Please clarify 7

8. Fox intervened This means that the election was conducted under unfair conditions, and regardless of the vote count is invalid. The only possible remedy here is anullment, something AMLO claims not to be seeking.

9. SCT intervened, to favor the PAN. Where? How?
8 and 9 also of course open the door for the PAN to demand anullment if AMLO wins the recount on the basis that the GDF also intervened, on a more blatant scale, and continues intervening today with the "voto por voto" mantas on public buildings.

10. Claims of cyber fraud. The problem here is these are claims. Not one shread of evidence to substantiate these claims has been presented.

5. Open 50,000 polling boxes. ILLEGAL without a TEPJF order. And, the 2,700 polling boxes that were opened did indeed add to AMLO's total. Unfortunately for AMLO they added even more to Calderon's, and his margin went from .56 to .59

I think it is important to point out that these polling boxes were opened at the Districts and the votes recounted presicely because they were reported with irregularities. They were the only ones that were opened not because the districts deny or rejected to open the rest of the polling boxes but because there were irregularities in these boxes. The Counting at the Districts is professional and detected errors or irregularities in polling boxes and corrected them by opening them and recounting them.

These only proves there is no further need for another recount.

It will be interesting to see what AMLO gets at his sob session this Sunday in the way of a crowd. Whatever he gets, it is interesting that he only does these assemblies in the DF, I have a feeling that he knows that he does not have enough hard core disciples elsewhere in the country to try doing an assembly outside of the DF. It would seem to me that if he DID have the potential to draw large crowds in Oaxaca, Tuxtla Gutierrez, Villahermosa, Morelia or Guadalajara he would do it.

Still haven't guessed where those Mercado quotes came from? Try the editorials from El Universal on July 9th.

The noted right wing fascist Soledad Loaeza wrote an interesting column in La Jornada today, of all papers. One paragraph stands out:

Las tácticas de AMLO para mover a la indignación son ahora bien conocidas: reuniones multitudinarias dominadas por la emoción colectiva, exacerbación de los ánimos mediante la satanización machacona de personajes o decisiones impopulares, construcción de un universo binario en el que él y los suyos representan el bien y todos los demás el mal. En el mundo incierto de los inicios del siglo XXI, López Obrador ofrece las irrebatibles certidumbres de un hombre poseedor de una verdad que no reconoce ningún principio de realidad, pues poco importa si para imponerse incurre en exageraciones descabelladas, en inconsistencias, inexactitudes o contradicciones. En el discurso lopezobradorista lo mismo se defiende el voto que se desconocen los votos emitidos; al igual que se habla de la defensa de las instituciones se propone pasar por encima de ellas para llegar a un acuerdo político -que equivale en el fondo, muy al estilo salinista, a sugerir una macro concertacesión-, o se afirma en forma contundente que el objetivo no es la anulación de la elección, pero se hace todo para que se imponga por la fuerza de los acontecimientos.

K. Vronna,

The article that you refer to in El Universal was written by Carlos Monsivais. I thought he was supposed to a leftist intellectual. Why would you say "rightwing fascist", if the author of the article is one of Mexico's most prominent leftists? Are you trying to be cynical? From what I read in the article, he is trying to evaluate the new political parties. But, he recurs to petty insults to disqualify them. If this is supposed to be one of our "intellectuals", as I said about José Murat being a member of the progressive forces we are in deep estircol.

Jerry B.

Keep downplaying this thing (Sunday's march to Zocalo). I really think you can't see beyond your nose.

This is not anymore about some crazy "Hugo Chavez Clon" gathering. It's about true DEMOCRACY. Millions of people are against the practices shown by the current Fox administration. Failure to count all the ballots could tigger a major crisis down there.

Plain and simple, why if Calderon is so sure about being the un-official winner of this election opposes to a full recount? that would give peace of mind to millions of mexicans.

Please spare me the pain of telling me it's illegal to do a full recount or that automatically would nullify the election, because IT'S NOT TRUE. I know it's now the TRIFE's decision. But still if Calderon would support such proposal things would be a little bit easier.

Why are they so afraid of this (PAN)?

I could care less who is the winner, but lets support the fact that it HAS TO BE THE ONE WHO GOT THE MOST VOTES.

Get Real wrote:

"I could care less who is the winner, but lets support the fact that it HAS TO BE THE ONE WHO GOT THE MOST VOTES."

The votes were already counted by hundreds of thousand of honorable Mexicans. And FELIPE CALDERON WON.
Why do we need to listen to a mentally-ill person who cannot recognize he lost?
How many times do you and this crazy thug need to count?

If AMLO and you and his other followers cannot count right, that is your problem.

Now if AMLO shows one single piece of evidence that would indicate that in an specific Ballot Station there were irregularities, well then the Court will open the corresponding ballot box and carry a Vote by Vote Recount.

However, I suggest we get a new regulation clearly requiring the next presidential candidates to learn some basic Maths and they the candidates are also mentally healthy, just in case.

Get Real, I am aware that millions of people are against Fox's policies. I would assume that that is why AMLO got 14 odd million votes. That being said, as of right now Calderon won the election. Please explain why he should facilitate a recount of votes, when this is not legally required. He has already said that if the TRIFE orders it, he will not oppose the order. Why should he go beyond that. A recount gives AMLO the opportunity to revert the election, which is statistically doubtful, and if it upholds Calderon's victory, every indication is that, regardless of what AMLO says now, he will either allege fraud in the recount or argue that the election was unfair anyway. Why facilitate AMLO's endless electoral shenanigans?

A related question, Get Real. I am slightly embarrassed that A slimy character like Gordillo is supporting Calderon. But, I am happy that at least the PAN is not trying to get her to join the PAN. Are you aware of any other ex-PRI vermin that support the PAN? Please post their names here. As mentioned, I am embarrassed about Gordillo. How do you feel about the following PRD members. Camacho Solis? Munoz Ledo? Yeidkol or Citlali whatever her name is? Ricardo Monreal? How do you feel about the following active PRI members who seem to be supporting the PRD: Manuel Bartlett? Jose Murat? Do they bring you pride, or as with Gordillo in my case, do they bring you embarrassment? Do you think they have the best interests of Mexico at heart or their own?

Also, why, during all the verbal attacks on parisitic businessmen, is Carlos Slim's name never mentioned?

emptyboxes,

stop watching Televisa. The ballots have been counted ONCE and the acts (many of them were modified to favor PAN).

That's why there's the NEED OF FULL RECOUNT. If you don't dare to research and do your homework, then we can't expect you come here with facts.

I'm not a PRD fan neither for the PAN. So I read Reforma, La Jornada, CNN (I recommend Carmen Aristegui's TV program) so once you read all the different sources you can make a good opinion. I've done it, and I think the whole process was full of inconsistencies (I don't care if people like you think it was done probably in isolated cases), the fact is: IT WAS DONE.

Get Real, you say that, of the actas, "(many of them were modified to favor PAN)" Do you have proof of this? More to the point, does the PRD have proof? If they do, what are you worried about, whether Calderon wants it or not, there will be a court ordered recount. If the court DOES NOT order a recount, wouldn't it be safe to say there is no proof of alteration of actas?

Ezra Shabot writes a very interesting article in Reforma today.

He is the latest in a growing number of Mexican intellectuals who are denouncing AMLO as a lunatic leader followed by dogmatical people.

The list is growing. Jesus Silva-Herzog, Enrique Krauze, Sergio Sarmiento, Carlos Marin, and many other serious and non-partisan intellectuals are begining to talk about AMLO psicological problems, which are visibly clear every day as he exposes himself by going to interviews.

We should point out that some of these interviews are mere jokes, like the one he had with that radical and dogmatical communist and stalinist pseudo-intellectual of Gran