I would like the Washington Post to discuss this link and the aberrations in the statistics generated by the mexican reasearcher. I think a full exploration would be benificial for your audience.

http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/james_k_galbraith/2006/07/the_mexican_standoff.html

http://em.fis.unam.mx/public/mochan/elecciones/indexen.html

Thxs, Bob Shaw

Anything coming out of the Guardian is about as unbiased as something in Pravda. The simple fact is that all the last pre election polls had the election a statistical tie, or AMLO slightly ahead, on June 23. The exit polls, according to Mikovsky, showed a statistical dead heat. In other words, the election was going to be decided by less than 1%. And it was. If it had gone the other way, 250,000 in favor of AMLO, the PAN could be making the exact same accusations that AMLO is making now, government (of the DF) favoritism of one candidate, media (La Jornada, Proceso) bias, intimidation of voters, bribery of voters (in Salamanca, on video) etc etc. It was a close election. Period. And, everything would indicate that AMLO lost. Barely. But, lose he did.

Jerry

If Guardian = Pravda, what does that say for other news sources. Does the Telegraph = FOX news?

And, if "everything would indicate that AMLO lost", what is "everything"? Do sworn affidavits alleging corruption not count among "everything"?

It is fun to watch rich people worry that their bought-and-paid-for policy changes won't go into effect. I like it when rich people are worried.

Jerry

If Guardian = Pravda, what does that say for other news sources. Does the Telegraph = FOX news?

And, if "everything would indicate that AMLO lost", what is "everything"? Do sworn affidavits alleging corruption not count among "everything"?

It is fun to watch rich people worry that their bought-and-paid-for policy changes won't go into effect. I like it when rich people are worried.

Confused, I have no idea what the Telegraph equals. I have never been to the UK. If I wanted to drink 40 pints of lager and go beat up some German football fans....but I digress.

As to what is "everything"? Well, let us start with the vote count, verified by a half a million citizens, and tens of thousands of PRD poll watchers (AMLO says his poll watchers may be corrupt, but I have more confidence in the rank and file perredistas, who are generally good people following a bad ideology.) Then, we have the exit polls, which indicated a dead heat. Then, we have AMLO's "evidence" of fraud, (the "sworn affidavits" alleging corruption) which is discredited. Finally, we have a partial recount of several thousand polling places, which actually increased Calderon's lead by .03 of a percentage point.

Now, even if we completely eliminate fraud, the statistical error range in an election this close would allow for the possibility that AMLO did indeed win, by an incredibly small margin. Doubtful, but possible. But, if he DID, and a recount proved it, the PAN could (and would) use every one of AMLO's own impugnations back at him. Furthermore, why should the PAN agree to a full recount when AMLO's history indicates that, regardless of what he is promising now, he will not accept any results that do not go his way.

Incidentally, your comment about "rich people" is interesting. The last I checked, about 3% of Mexico's population could be classed as "rich". Yet, 36% voted for the PAN. Have we sudennly become a VERY first world country, even richer than the US of A or the UK? If so, where is my share of the "riches"????

Confused, I have no idea what the Telegraph equals. I have never been to the UK. If I wanted to drink 40 pints of lager and go beat up some German football fans....but I digress.

As to what is "everything"? Well, let us start with the vote count, verified by a half a million citizens, and tens of thousands of PRD poll watchers (AMLO says his poll watchers may be corrupt, but I have more confidence in the rank and file perredistas, who are generally good people following a bad ideology.) Then, we have the exit polls, which indicated a dead heat. Then, we have AMLO's "evidence" of fraud, (the "sworn affidavits" alleging corruption) which is discredited. Finally, we have a partial recount of several thousand polling places, which actually increased Calderon's lead by .03 of a percentage point.

Now, even if we completely eliminate fraud, the statistical error range in an election this close would allow for the possibility that AMLO did indeed win, by an incredibly small margin. Doubtful, but possible. But, if he DID, and a recount proved it, the PAN could (and would) use every one of AMLO's own impugnations back at him. Furthermore, why should the PAN agree to a full recount when AMLO's history indicates that, regardless of what he is promising now, he will not accept any results that do not go his way.

Incidentally, your comment about "rich people" is interesting. The last I checked, about 3% (at most) of Mexico's population could be classed as "rich". Yet, 36% voted for the PAN. Have we sudennly become a VERY first world country, even richer than the US of A or the UK? If so, where is my share of the "riches"????

Someone accused me in another blog of not doing my homework. I've posted my comments objectively based on my knowledge of the law and the evidence so far found.

Some people in here are loosing their point. May I remind them that I'm not trying to prove that there was a fraud in the making. They are the ones supporting that thesis. They are the ones who aren't doing their homework. Don't worry, I'll give you guys a hand:

http://www.trife.org.mx/siscon/gateway.dll?f=templates&fn=default.htm

Here is the link, directly form the TEPJF, where the legislation relevant for this case is contained. Find where all the supposedly electotal crimes are. I did look for them about a week ago, I did it today too and didn't found anything relevant that could change the current result.

If you do find something, why don't you send you brilliant thesis to the PRD headquarters? They seem to need it really bad. Of their 231 complaints, 112 don't present enough evidence and legal background to be analyzed and so the TEPJF has asked the PRD for more documentation.

So far, all accusations have been done using double standards and lies. They are trying to achieve in the streets, with very out-of-date, Cold War kind of resistence, what they didn't get in ballots. They present themselves as martyrs of democarcy while they ignore that 27 million voters didn't choose their political option. Elections aren't won by majorities, they are won by majorities who vote and, on july 2nd, 27 million mexicans voted against AMLO's view. 14 million people who voted for AMLO are hardly a mojority of the 42 million total votes. Even more, they are hardly a majority of the 71 million mexicans eligible to vote.

Instead of trying to blame everything on someone else, why don't you guys do a self-criticism exercise? Why did the PRD walked out of the negotiations to choose the IFE officials?(yes, they DID walk out, Carlos Navarrete, Senator of the PRD said it yesterday in Zona Abierta with Hector Aguilar Camín) Why did AMLO choose not to be at the first debate? Why attacking the entrepreneurs, insult them, calling them parasites, and thus scaring away the middle class? (casue most entrepreneurs are from the middle class, they aren't rich) Why attacking the president? Why the name calling? Why being so conceited, why ignoring your own advisors? ("la estrategia soy yo")

My advice for all AMLO supproters out there: the solution isn't a question of "we did it because they were attacking us" or "we did it because they did it first". Mal de muchos, consuelo de tontos. It was very clear, 4 or 5 months ago, that AMLO was winning by a large margin the election. No one make him lose it. He lost it himself. Think about that.

Burbina,

Indeed, the TRIFE has requested more information but this is a normal occurrence during most cases. Further, it's not in the quant. (number of unsubstantiated cases) but in the qualitative front where the case will be decided -all it takes is a reasonable doubt for: a) re-count or b) annull.

I myself find it surprising that AMLO was able to withstand the assault of the Mexican elites during the last months on his candidacy: unsustained rumours, governmental interference, media pounding, etc., etc. Your questions seem to mirror your skewed vision of the situation. A more balanced approach would be welcomed.

Obrador ran a bad campaign, he had a brilliant idea in making this an election for the poor, but he made one very mortal mistake. He completely ignored the growing middle class, by doing this, he killed his chances for not only beating Calderon, but beating him by at least 3 to 5 percentage points. He underestimated the power that young, educated, middle class Mexicans have at convincing employees and relatives that AMLO was a danger to the nation.

Marco, every candidate in every serious democracy in the world has to deal with "unsustained rumours, governmental interference, media pounding, etc" in a campaign. This is normal, and the only way to completely stop it is to outlaw free speech.

"Unsustained rumors"? I was told as a fact that if the PAN won, women would be banned from working outside the home, the Vatican would take over Mexico, Sexual Education would be banned in public schools, and Mexico would become a fascist republic. I was also as a fact told that if AMLO won, he would become Hugo Chavez's puppet, gay marriage would be legalized, private property would be confiscated, (and given to the gays?) and Mexico would become a communist state.

Governmental interferance?? I heard plenty of pro Fox spots, yet am given to understand that there were plenty of spots by the GDF that were much more biased in favor of AMLO.

Media Pounding? El norte attacked AMLO. So what. Try reading Proceso or La Jornada. If you can get more than a couple paragraphs without finding the words "fascista" "racista" "clasista" or "el Junque" it is a miracle.

Everything AMLO is whining about happened both ways. Period. (And, since AMLO has started playing games, two can play, and if an eventual recount does revert the election, it is almost a guarantee that Calderon will make the same arguements that AMLO is making now to annull the election.)
Everything being whined about happens in EVERY SINGLE DEMOCRACY in the world. None of them collapse because of it. Neither will Mexico.

Lets not forget that Vicente Fox ran in even more unfavorable conditions than Lopez Obrador an clearly won, like i have said, this election was lost right in the heart of Lopez Obrador's camp.

AMLO supporters seem to be losing steam, if this blog can provide any indication. Senors Bourbonm Chavez, and bunburina have presented clear arguments to counter every complaint from the other side and they have not responded with much. That's no fun.

It will be interesting to see if this is also happening in society at large, outside the confines of this cyberspace exchange of opinions. My guess is that the hardcore on the left will remain committed, but then they would remain committed to their cause no matter what evidence was presented to counter it. But I suspect that AMLO is losing steam among the voters at large and that his antics are hurting the PRD more than helping it.

If the people who enjoy spending their weekends in the Zocalo chanting succeed in getting the election annulled, then there will be an interim government for a couple of years and another election. Mexicans will see clearly the price they have paid and they will make the PRD pay for it. AMLO will be shunted aside in favor of a more rational candidate, maybe Lazaro or Marcelo, but much of the damage to the image of the PRD will remain.

Goyo, I knew the arguement was over as soon as they started screaming about "fascism". Cries of fascism are always the last fallback of intellectually bankrupt leftists, in Mexico and the world at large.

NName calling is usually the sign of a lack of either coherent arguments or an intellect that is limited by either insufficient logic or an emotional overload, which seems to be the case of many AMLO supporters. I'm used to being called a communist or leftist puppet, but this election was the first time I've ever been lumped with the "fascists". Lots of people I thought of as rational have surprised me with the hysterical and hate-filled responses to my viewpoints on why I think AMLO was a poor choice for the PRD. As confirmation of this irrational bent, try giving a look at the so-called art exposition in the metro. Frankly, I don't think that profanity and hatred are what small children need to be exposed to, especially when parents are not prepared for what is probably a surprise encounter.

I wish all the levels of government in the country would desist from using public funds to promote their administrations. I'm tired of seeing self-promoting spots, billboards and party colors used in this manner. Politics has no room in the everyday running of government. Maybe there should be a nationwide color scheme for each level of government.

For those who think that AMLO supporters are loosing steam I think you are way off.

Last Sunday was one of the major demonstrations of support to anybody in Mexico's history. The next one will be July 30th and my guess is that could be even bigger. Yes, the goal is to show they have muscle and support.

Please do your homework and stop watching the official news from Fox, CNN, Univision (televisa). Read different sources online so you really get a better picture of what's going on right now.

My opinion is that the media is downplaying this thing which has chances of creating a major political disaster south the border (that sooner or later will come to affect the US).

Idle curiosity. I've been in the Zocalo a couple of times when it has been filled with musicians, dancers, vendors, and their audiences or customers, and people just walking around, although walking was difficult in such crowds. I read that the area is 13 acres. Does anyone who knows more have a figure of what the Zocalo can hold, how many people? Aside from news reports of estimates or official reports of estimates, how many people actually fit in the Zocalo? As I said, just curious. I have my own personal estimate and wonder if I am right or not. Thanks.

Edgar, You are right in that people in the United States should be concerned by what is happening in Mexico. If AMLO and his group succeeds in overthrowing the government through threats of violence that would present a huge security problem for the United States and maybe even divert some attention from the middle east.

But I disagree with the importance you attach to filling the plaza with people who have nothing better to do or who were trucked in there by one group or another.

I am not sure of the answer to zac's question, but I recall hearing that 300 thousand people would fill the Zocalo. Of course, many people also fill in the nearby streets, so let's say it's half a million, or even a million. Mexico has over 100 million people, so these protesters represent less than one percent of the population. Now, each one of them may have a few others out there who agree with them to some extent, so maybe they represent several million.

That is still not enough to give them the right to overthrow Mexico's institutions and impose their will on the majority. Of course, some will now read this and say, "But all we ask for is a vote count and a fair hearing on our complaints!"

Ah, I wish that were true. But what AMLO has made clear is that this goes far beyond that. He will not accept any ruling that is not in his favor. The demonstrations and the attacks on Felipe Calderon and threats against his family are also ways of intimidating the TRIFE so that, instead of making a cool, sober judgment based on the facts, the judges will have to worry about themselves and their families if they dare offend the messiah from Tabasco.

I am also curious about all these complaints about the media in Mexico. I have watched the media mature over the past decade or so and I would have to say the television news programs in Mexico are very well done. The announcers ask good, pertinent questions and they follow developments pretty closely, with reporters on the scene with every candidate and party.

What is this supposed bias AMLO's people keep talking about? Their candidate was interviewed by both Televisa and Azteca. They treated him with respect, even when he said things that merited ridicule. Maybe someone can enlighten me and give some real examples of how the television networks favored Calderon.

K Vronna, now that you have become a fascist, wouldn't you agree that we are much nicer people than the puppets and communists?

"AMLO supporters seem to be losing steam, if this blog can provide any indication. Senors Bourbonm Chavez, and bunburina have presented clear arguments to counter every complaint from the other side and they have not responded with much. That's no fun."

Goyo, it´s not that there are no arguments to counter most of what it´s being said above by either Jesus, Jerry or yourself, but I fear that preconceptions or plain bias may be precluding your ability to distinguish facts and evidence which would in turn question the "reality" that you defend from your standpoint.

Jesus, your argument about AMLO about making "one very mortal mistake. He completely ignored the growing middle class" does not stands scrutiny. How then do you explain that in DF and EDOMEX, where GDP per capita is the highest in the country AMLO had some of the biggest numbers in both relative and absolute terms? Also, are we to infer that there is no middle class south of Mexico City? What it becomes clear is that Mexico is a "two-speed" country with a more modern and progressive north voting for Calderon and a more backward southern part voting for AMLO.

Jerry, your "Everything being whined about happens in EVERY SINGLE DEMOCRACY in the world." is good to generalize but relativity is crucial to explain whether a contest fulfills a critical condition: fairness. A) Fox´s support for Calderon´'s campaign is ilegal under Mexican law and it clearly outweighted any effort made by the GDF to counter it. B) Your argument about La Jornada and Proceso is not close to even being a half-truth as you clearly failed to mention the number of readers between these and those supporting Calderon (Reforma Group + Cronica + Nuevo Excelsior + Sol + etc.), and this of course, without including those by the electronic media where AMLO simply did not stood a chance against neither Televisa, the CIRT, and Azteca. I find suspect the fact that Mexico´s largest vested interests -and a binding constrain to Mexico´s economic growth - alligned themselves so solidly behind Calderon.

And Goyo, unfortunately your arguments are rife with speculation:

"AMLO has made clear is that this goes far beyond that. He will not accept any ruling that is not in his favor. The demonstrations and the attacks on Felipe Calderon and threats against his family are also ways of intimidating the TRIFE so that, instead of making a cool, sober judgment based on the facts, the judges will have to worry about themselves and their families if they dare offend the messiah from Tabasco";

"filling the plaza with people who have nothing better to do or who were trucked in there by one group or another.";

"If AMLO and his group succeeds in overthrowing the government through threats of violence that would present a huge security problem for the United States and maybe even divert some attention from the middle east.", etc.

Perhaps with some more conclusive and factual info. the discussion would help to enlighten the readers.

Marco, if Fox had come out and said "Vote for Calderon", that would have been illegal (though the law is stupid, and restrains free speech). He did not. He ran spots telling people how great his government is. We all know what he was doing, but it is technically legal. And, the GDF was doing it first.
As to the newspapers and TV, regardless as to who got more favorable coverage, in a free country it does not matter. They are free to support whoever they want. And any support that PAN got from the media was quite compensated by all the unions which engaged in strikes and other actions to attack the PAN. Again, perfectly legal. But neither side should whine about it.

Finally, what exactly do you want to be done about all this unfairness? A recount will not solve anything, because if Calderon wins he still will have won "unfairly". A nullification would simply result in a second election where, if opinion polls are to be believed, the 65% of Mexico that is tired of AMLO's shenanigans will bury him. A simple declaration of AMLO as the victor will split the country and provoke massive unrest in the north on a scale that will make what is happening in the Zocolo look like a kindergarden class. So, I repeat, what do you want? What is your solution?

Also, please advise where you are getting your statistics. I ask because I think you are confusing the total GDP of the DF with Baja California or Nuevo Leon. In per capita terms, I doubt sincerely that they are higher, because if they were, everyone would immigrate south, instead of north like they do now.

CINTERMEX

Nuevo León
Localizado en la parte noreste de México su frontera con Estados Unidos es por medio del Puente Colombia. Cuenta con 3.9 millones de habitantes (85% vive en el área Metropolitana y 40% es menor de 20 años). Con menos del 4% de la población nacional, el PIB de Nuevo León es más del doble que el promedio nacional.

Goyo, your answers are exactly the ones given by those who decided to align with the goverment. I watch Televisa and TV Azteca (to say both are doing a good journalism these days is to be blind).

Is not about 1 million people with nothing better to do. We are talking about over 14 million people who voted for AMLO.

I do not support neither AMLO or Calderon. But I believe in democracy. So I support a full recount ballot by ballot so everyone in Mexico gets a feeling that the real winner was elected president.

Edgar, I understand your desire to put all this behind by having a vote-for-vote count, but I am afraid that won't do it. As long as AMLO comes up losing, he will claim fraud and this will never end. On the other hand, based on how he has acted lately, if he came up the winner--God help us all!

As for bias in television news- I am still waiting for someone to give me an example of what they mean by bias. If they reported on AMLO and his campaign and had him and many of his people on their interview programs, what else can you ask?
Did they give Calderon more time? Can you show some study that proves that?

I agree with Mr. Bourbon, Every democracy where consenting adults are running for office, tolerates free speech. Moreover, the wars of words are not only expected, but eagerly analized assuming of course that the candidates are prepared to substantiate whatever they say. I find AMLO's whining childish at best. Also, I find utterly absurd the Mexican law which prohibits foreigners from expressing their oppinion about "Internal affairs". That outdated law is a small sample of the self-deceiving attitude that often accompanies Mexican activities. Whe Aznar expressed his oppinion about Mexican politics, the PAN was fined!! I am sure that He was as surprised as all adults would be in a functioning modern democracy...

I do not believe AMLO has got 14 million people behind him. The mayority of the people who voted for him did so as an exercise of civic and peaceful democratic participation and most importantly, they did it so knowing perfectly they could win or lose. By now most of them have already accepted defeat and are not very hopeful about a recount. Many of these people who voted for him are not going to listen to AMLO's accusations and allegations of fraud. Only the hard followers, the most radical will follow him, and of course those who are part of the PRD party, and they are many and specially in DF.
While it is true the meeting at the zocalo was huge. It is also true that a lot of these people were brought in buses and trucks, I saw many families, children and all, it will false to say all the people went there by themselves and it is true that many receive money for being there and their traveling or commuting expenses are also covered by the PRD. During the campaign there were many meetings carried out by all candidates. Of course AMLO has the power to call for a huge meeting. PAN has done it before and the PRI did it for many years.
But our democracy is not about meetings anymore, our democracy cannot be expressed in the streets anymore.
Ours is a democracy of votes. Votes counted by citizens who freely and voluntarily participate in the organization and counting of the votes. Ours is a democracy of laws and order and courts and institutions.
AMLO and PRD need to show their evidences to prove their allegations of either fraud or arithmetical errors. We know they already abandoned the idea of a cybernetic fraud and all those algorithms they talked about so much were worthless.
The Court has asked PRD for the Protest sheets that are suppossed to justify their impugnations since they had none. Each Poll Desk impugned is suppossed to have a Protest Sheet that was written on Election day at the moment of the violation or fraud or error.
Well there is none. Not one single Protest Sheet out of a total of 50 thousand impugned by PRD. Not only that but there is absolutely no evidence attached to any of the impugnations either. The Court has already issued 223 requests for information regarding the evidences and protests sheets.
So now the PRD has asked for a special session to explain to the Court why they have no Protest sheets and no evidences along with the impugned Casillas.

They need to explain to the Court why they HAVE NOTHING, not a single evidence of fraud. What about all the alleged documentation posted at AMLO's website? Isn't it suppossed to be "Fraud Evidences" according to Claudia Shaunbam?

Found some interesting article about how many people can be at the zocalo at the same time.

Excelsior, domingo 16 de julio:

4 people can fit by the squared meter if they leave some space between them. 6 people can fit if they all stand very close together. The Zocalo is 20 866 m2.

- If the Zocalo is relatively full, there are 83 544 persons.
- If the Zocalo is completely full, there are 125 316 persons
- Including portals and the streets surrounding the plaza: 195 000 leaving some space, 292 000 standing close to each other.
- With the nearby streets leading to Zocalo (Madero, 5 de mayo, etc.): 350 000 people.
- Completely full till Eje Central (by the side of Bellas Artes): 500 000

Source: Jorge Meléndez/INEGI

So, apparentely, accordig to the article, the 1 million people in AMLO's meeting isn't true.

But how many people was or wasn't in the "informative meeting" isn't really important. Obviously, Campa or Patricia can't pull that off. (I can imagine a meeting with Patricia, just K. Vronna and I standing there under the sun) But the three main parties, PRI, PAN and PRD, sure can. Any of them, whether with voluntary supporters or accarreados. That isn't really impressive.

Someone said that the PRD won in the State of Mexico and the DF where most of the middle class lives. Wrong. The PRD won most of the delegaciones but lost to the PAN a very very important one: Miguel Hidalgo which includes Lomas de Chapultepec, Lomas de Sotelo, Polanco, Chapultepec, Popotla, Escandón, Anáhuac, etc; all of them, middle, middle-upper, upper class neighborhoods.

In the State of Mexico the PRD won important municipios like Chimalhuacan, but the richest ones like Naucalpan (one of the richest municipios in the country), Tlalnepantla, Atizapan and Huixquilucan the PAN won by landslide. They are actually known as the "blue corridor" since they are the "voto duro" of the PAN in the State of Mexico.

And everyone telling us AMLO critics that we only watch Televisa and Tv Azteca and read only Reforma, just a question: why are we even blogging at the Washington Post website if all we do is watch and read what the mainstrem media give us?

I don't know about the rest, but in national press I read El Universal, Excelsior, Reforma, La Jornada and I get every week my Proceso at home. Internationally, I've read the New York Times, The Guardian, the Washington Post, El País, ABC, Le Monde and Libération. I've watched CNN en español, CNN in enlgish and BBC World News.

Of all the aboved mentioned only La Jornada, Proceso and The Guardian have clearly taken AMLO's side. The New York Times used to back him up during the campaign but since then they have clearly marked their distance. And that's all. That's a clear sign to me that he's not doing something right and the press, not only local but internationaly, have started to criticise him.

Apart from the lack of any proof for all the wild allegations that the PRD is making, what is interesting is the silence of the international left. What has Castro had to say about these elections? Hugito Chavez? Evo Morales? Kirchner? Zapatero? Very little. Why hasn't Patricia Mercado raised cain, like Maquio Clouthier raised cain in 1988? (Which probably cost him his life.) One would assume that all of the above would like nothing better than to stick it to a right wing candidate (and by extension to the United States), yet they are all silent. What does that tell us?

INcidentally, I have a violent prejudice which holds that baseball fans are much more intelligent (and less violent) than football (soccer) fans. Does anyone know of any poll which shows how fans of each sport voted?

Well. The problem with soccer it there is only one break and no time outs, which does not neccessarily make it very commercial. And the scores sucks: 1 to 0 after a 2 hour game, that's a shame, in Basketball you make 85 points after 20 minutes which plus the breaks and tv adds make it a total of 1 hour.

And yes, I do believe there is something about soccer that makes it a little irracional and unpredictable.

Regarding the response from the left to AMLO's false allegations of fraud. I believe they have already responded. They looked the other way and have remained silent. That's how the mayority of the left usually responds everywhere in the world.

About Patricia Mercado I should say she was on TV and when questioned whether she believed there was any fraud, she was quick to respond she believed there wasn't any fraud.
And I believe Zapatero has just had a most interesting interview with the Times he declared AMLO should accept the results and work from the oppossition to make better government.
In general, I believe there is international consensus that the elections were clean and that AMLO's claims are groundless but to a certain extent a little understandable because of the close results. However international press has also critized AMLO and gone as far as to call him irresponsible for taking people to the streets.
Seems to me that Jorge Castañeda was better at managing the international press than Camacho Solis and his friends in Paris.
On the underground press, the radical press that exists more specially in the internet, La Jornada and Subcomandante Marcos and his international anti-globalization friends are also running another dirty campaign which is possible to find in such websites as democracynow, and at dailykos and other very liberal blogs and as well radical websites along the communist and socialist and anti-americanist networks. It has also found some echoes in islamic militant websites.

Who is paying this gentleman Jerry B? Why listening to this kind of people, who are sponsored by PAN? As someone mentioned, please go to other sources of information and you will find out about Mexican elections.

Let us wait for TRIFE's decision.

Carlos

Carlos couldn't agree more. Some participants in the blog seem to have a tendency to act in the same way the condemn others for their apparent intolerance.

But summarizing: A) AMLO seems to be contesting the results in a legal and so far peaceful way, despite the high pitch rhetoric on both sides; B) The results were so close that a vote-by-vote recount would guarantee the Constitutional principle of certainty; C) Let's give the TRIFE the benefit of the doubt on their wisdom to sort out the best solution.

Carlos and Marco-- I think we are beyond that. We can agree on AMLO's right to file legal challenges and we can agree that the TRIFE should examine those challenges and decide. But AMLO and his supporters are not just waiting quietly for the TRIFE's decision. They are putting up insulting posters, with pictures of Felipe Calderon and Ugalde, they are holding massive rallies where their leader threatens even the family members of his rival, they are attacking physically Calderon as he leaves meetings, they are suggesting there will be violence and "civic" resistance, such as blocking of commerce, if the TRIFE rules against them. All of this is the fault of el peje, who has clearly said he will not accept any ruling that is not in his favor.

AMLO supporters claim there is all this evidence of fraud. If there was a massive effort to have people at polling places working a la James Bond to falsify papers, then surely some witnesses would come forward. I never heard of a conspiracy of that size and scope that did not have a few loose ends. Someone who participated, who took a bribe, would break down and come forward with testimony. If so, that evidence should be taken to el TRIFE. That is where these matters are to be handled, not in the streets and not by threatening people.

According to AMLO's allegations of fraud at the Casillas, all those who were born in January are corrupt.

This is nonsense, PRD people want to tell us there is no winner. Get real! There is a winner and his name is Felipe Calderon, and though the difference is of only .5 percent, it is statiscally unsurmountable in case of a recount. The votes were already counted and the counting already went through several filters, one of these filters was the presence of party representative at the polling sites, another was the counting of the actas at the districts were, because of 2,800 Casillas were opened and recounted. These are the casillas where the parties PRD, PAN, PRI, etc. had questions or doubts.
So whatever comes out of a recounting, it will be very unlikely to change the results enough to make AMLO win.

Hard as it is, it is necessary to recognize when we lose, for not doing so may far damage the PRD reputation as a not reliable democracy partner.

PRD is going to have to deal with a very negative image after this. Elections are coming in several states next year, among them Veracruz, a key state disputed by both PAN and PRD and an essential state for any serious presidential candidate, if PAN wins in this state, it will be in a position to win again in 2012, and PRD better prepare to give a positive image.

People like emptyboxes, and jerry b, are so full of it, it stinks to high heaven. They go on and on, about not being facists, or racists, but they are, their words prove it. People like them, and other PAN supporters, are only intrested in what would happen to them money wise, if AMLO was elected, not caring a hoot about the millions of poor and underemployed, whose root causes of their poverty are based on failed economic policys from both the PAN and the PRI. Why are they so afraid of AMLO? Because they know that real change would happen with AMLO, a change for the better, because, with zero growth for over 5years, how can it get any worse? Point at something good money wise that has happen with FOX? Nada, and i mean nothing. A litro de leche costs 10pesos, here in the north, and 5 pesos for a kilo of tortillas. Yet somehow, these PAN people dont seem affected by this. The peso has gone down against the dollar, not up, so wheres the better life? U cannot point at one thing that counts, one thing that affects positively the working class and poor. And, they, not the middle class, or the rich are the majority of Mexico, and with FOX, and now with FECAL, its going to stay that way. With the PAN in charge, nothing changed, why all of a sudden will it now? AMLO offers change for the better, and they know it. Those who are against AMLO know that their money will be affected in some way, perhaps, now they will have to pay real taxes, or pay real wages. Yes they fear AMLO, not because he is a danger to Mexico, hes only a danger to their status, to their vision of Mexico, that offers no hope for the majority of Mexico. These are the only ones who are against a full recount. Why? They never say why they are against it. They bring up that the votes already got counted, why do it again? They cant accept that their was doubts about the election, enuff to demand a recount. But nope, they will never accept any proof. They are fanatics. They represnt why Mexico has no growth, has so much poverty, so much need. How many niños de la calle, do u count in your city Jerry, and emptyboxes, Goyo? Huh? Probally they dont even notice, because they really dont care.

maya0: You blame PAN and PRI for the poverty in our country, yet PAN has only been in power for almost 6 years. If you blame PRI then you should also notice that all the people in PRD belonged to the PRI not long ago, starting with AMLO, he was a PRI politician in Tabasco, and the rest, Camacho Solis, Monreal, Noruña, Leonel Cota, with only a very few exceptions like Jesus Ortega and Amalia. The rest used to be all priistas.

I find interesting how almost nobody in PAN was in the PRI. For example Felipe Calderon, he was never in the PRI, same for Manuel Espino and most of them.

As it turns out, PAN and Felipe Calderon are today fighting the same thugs they were fighting 20 years ago, but now their party has changed name, now its called PRD.

And but the are the same, exactly the same thugs, they threaten, they blackmail, they lie and cheat, they are violent, they manipulate and fabricate evidences.

The good thing this time they don't have the power of the guns with them, otherwise our freedoms would be gone by now.

AMLO saw himself as president, he thought he could have the whole country all for himself to get richer and to eliminate his political adversaries. Camacho Solis saw himself as Secretary of Hacienda, wiring millions of dollars to his personal bank accounts in Europe, Monreal saw himself as Secretary of Energy, positioning himself for the 2012 nomination, Noruña saw himself as in charge of Oportunidades, with plans to brain-wash all the poor people and extend the miserable clientele networks of PRD through our country.

But it is all gone. By, the dream is gone.

And worst, Felipe Calderon will have 207 congressman plus 9 from Nueva Alianza, all he will need to reach mayority will be 30 priistas, and PRD will not be able to block PAN, neither in Congress nor in Senate.

They are toasted and they know it, that explains all the crying and whining from them today.

Dream on emptyboxes, your eyes, will never see FECAL as president of Mexico. Their will be a recount, theirs enough cause for that effect. Thats why you, and your kind are so afraid of that happening. And you want to ignore history. The PAN has been a viable politcal force since its inception, along with the PRI, hand in hand, legislating against the masses, creating individuals like Fernadez de Ceballos, and his ocean front properties. Get real, the PAN has been around for 50 years! And u want to convice people that they have had real power for only 6? What a blind person u are, and those that think like U. Hand in hand, the PAN and the PRI, have created the situations that millions of people in Mexico wallow in. Massive underempolyment, terrible public education, huge disparitys in public works. The list is endless. When those who founded the PRD, saw these enquitys, in their own party, they saw to evolve, to improve, thats why they changed to a better option. Is that so unusual? So what if they where from the PRI, their not now, they got wiser, and left. Thats something to admire, not despise, like you and your kind, are so quick to belittle. Real power, the presidential kind can affect change, but in 6 years, the PAN blew it. And you and everybody knows it. Why do other countries, even the fear country of Hugo Chavez have growth? It cant be explained away simply by saying it was because of oil, theirs been oil before in venezuela, and their was no growth. What about here in Mexico? It costs 3 dollers to extract a barrel of oil in Mexico. And its being sold for over 70 bucks. Where is all that profit really going? Ill tell you where it aint, it aint paving no roads here in PANista Lerdo where i live in dgo. It didnt create refinerys anywhere, so that Mexico has to import gasoline from the USA. But the president of the bank of Mexico, Mr Ortiz, whenever hes in NYC, pays ten thousad dollars a night staying in only the finest places. Theirs part of that oil money. The PRI, together with the PAN, have circumnavigated the nation into poverty. Its really sad, how soon PANists forget, when FOX, with donkey ears, demanded a recount, vote by vote. You know who started the massive road blocks to pressure the fedral or state goverments? Yes, the PAN started that fine tradition. So dont give me any of that bull, that oh, oh, the PAN has had only 6 years. If they where not smart enough to figure out how in the last 6 years, history only shows, that they will not further any change at all, they are the status, they want everything to stay as it is. Because they benefit from all the misery that is the real Mexico. You and your kind, go tell a family begging for change in every major intersection in any urban city of any size in Mexico, north or south, that AMLO is a danger to their way of life. The only danger I see is to you and your kind, thats why your so afraid of a recount, because the major news commentators in the west, from all over, are behind a recount, in order to clear the air over the election. Why are you so against a recount? Because fraud was commited, and when the vote by vote recount is done, under the glare of the whole world watching, the truth will come out, that AMLO is the real legitimate president of Mexico. No matter how much you rant and rave, your eyes will never see the day that FECAL has a tri color banner placed on him. A recount will prevent that. And you know it, thats why your so againt it.

Maya zero are there 15 million racists, fascists and fanatics in Mexico? Because that is how many votes the PAN got. The majority of the citizens in your state (I believe you said you were from Monterrey) voted for Calderon. Are the majority of the citizens of Nuevo Leon fascists? If so, how can you stand to live among them?

Most of the money I earn is in dollars, from San Diego. Economically, AMLO would be the best thing in the world for me, as he would provoke a peso devaluation that would probably allow me to buy the whole block I live on.

As the notorious fascist and El Junque member K Vronna mentioned in an earlier post, hatred and bitterness are no fun. You do not sound like you are having much fun. Not that I greatly care; be miserable if you want. But, the hatred and bitterness toward people who think differently that is emaninating from the PRD is probably the main reason that, when all is said and done, AMLO is going to lose. (And why he did not win by 10 points in the first place, he had this election WON three months ago.)

As to the family on the street begging, they are there for one of two reasons. Either they are drug addicts, in which case no one can help them until they choose to help themselves, or they are unemployed. If they are unemployed they can thank labor laws so anachronistic that job creation in this country is almost impossible, and a union dominated education system that does not educate. Labor and education laws that Fox tried to change. Unlike the PRD, the PAN wants to give these people an opportunity to work, not convert them into dependent clients of a paternalistic government, a la the PRI.

There is a secret conspiracy. El Junque is secretly paying money to AMLO to continue his election protests, because the Vatican, the CIA and the Zionists told them that this is the best way to permantly destroy the PRD as a political party. You heard it here first...

Maya0: I need not dream on as you previously stated here. It is already happening, it is Felipe Calderon that is ahead in the numbers, and to the best of my knowledge, AMLO and company have not been able to provide one singe piece of real tangible evidence, it has been all talk and talk and videos that were supposed to be proof and resulted otherwise, and cibernetic fraud that at first existed and there were numerous formulas and equations and algorithms, but not anymore.
International support is at a low as foreign governments and international press learn there is no fraud. Internal support is also eroding as more and more intellectuals are beginning to distance themselves and to critize PRD and AMLO's attitudes and agenda.
Everybody is turning their back on PRD and AMLO, except of course for the radicals, I read yesterday that the EPR from the mountains of Guerrero is supporting AMLO, and so are the many socialist and communist underground parties and groups that populate the south and center of our country.
It is AMLO and his PRD and the radicals against the great mayority of Mexicans. Already these forums and blogs, formerly overcrowded with AMLO supporters, are little by little taken over by supporters of our democracy and institutions.
It is ridiculous that a candidate who obtained only a mere third percent of the votes wants to impose his agenda on the rest of the country. He and his party's future are being compromised by their negative to accept defeat with honor, responsibility and patriotism.

Maya0-- Please knock off the FECAL thing. That is disgusting and there is no reason for it. We don't call AMLO any other name other than what his own people call him-- Andres Manuel, Lopez Obrador, AMLO, el peje, etc. Okay, I called him the messiah of Tabasco once, but that is based on his own view of himself and contains no insult.

Now, as for poverty. It is true that Mexico's elite has failed the poor and it is especially sad that Fox did not accomplish more. However, to say he accomplished nothing is not true. He did knock a few percentage points off poverty and he did expand opportunities for people to own houses and enter the middle class.

Where he failed was in playing politics to get the PRI and PRD to pass some of the badly needed reforms that would lead to real job creation in Mexico. Today, Mexicans are lucky to get a factory job where they earn in a day what people in the United States earn in an hour at minimum wage. No wonder people take risks to go north illegally seeking work.

Much of Mexico's economic distress can be traced back to the leftist governments of Echevarria and Lopez Portillo. AMLO talked a good talk about helping the poor, but if he would take Mexico back to those failed policies, the poor would suffer more. Calderon's plan makes more sense. If he can get some PRI senators and diputados to help, he can pass the fiscal, energy and judicial reforms Mexico needs.

Mexico is a rich country full of poor people. It could be another success story, like some Asian nations, by addressing deficiencies in education, public health, tax collection, etc.

Opening the energy sector to private investment so that some of the resources now beyond reach can be exploited would help. But if the money is not spent properly, it will be for nothing. The old PRI operatives hanging around AMLO don't give me much confidence in whatever plan he has, but Calderon seems to have the right ideas and a capable team to carry out his plans.

"Dream on emptyboxes, your eyes, will never see FECAL as president of Mexico."

What's up Emptyboxes? Are you going to suddenly go blind in the next few days?

maya0: Hijita, I admire your passion, but your logic and name-calling are atrocious. When you use phrases such as "you, and your kind", you do yourself and your candidate a disservice. Don't you remember the "chachalaca" spots and the points the PAN picked up by portraying AMLO as intolerant? This is exactly the tramp you are falling into when you resort to this type of debating, and the worst of it is that the real debate of ideas is lost in the cacophony.

Some earnest questions: Does anyone think that all the profanity and name-calling advances the cause of the PRD one bit? If you want to present your cause as a peaceful and democratic movement, why are so many trying to paint the opposite picture? If the election was a "total pigsty of corruption" as AMLO has said, then why ask for a vote by vote recount if the result has already been decided? And lastly, if the '06 elections were as crooked as the ones in '88, why aren't the guys from CISEN out in front of my house trying to scare my husband and me again?

P.S. - bunburina, we'd never be out in the sun in the zócalo with Patricia Mercado because she'd never be that disrespectful of either her followers or the general public. I was probably marching before a lot of you were out of kindergarten and I doubt that even one of those marches would have had the effect of good old neighbor to neighbor discussions. Democracy is built through person-to-person encounters and bridge building, anything else is ephemeral. There is no easy way, no political Messiah, just old-fashioned hard work.

Democracy's most dangerous adversaries are those who seek power in our latinamerican nations on the basis of their asserted moral superiority over their fellow citizens. These politically ambitious guilt trippers are not ignorant or unaware, but they do rely on both the functioning moral code and the historical ignorance of the average latinamerican voter. And increasingly on the prestige of the law and the power of the state where guilt alone has come to lack the power to hold voters in thrall. In their pursuit of power, they risk destroying the very communities they seek to lead. This is the case of AMLO.

just when one starts feeling he's living in a civilized society, the ghost of banana republics and drumhead trials comes and haunts mexico. i have to say, ever since this postelectoral thingy started, i've been feeling i'm stuck in century XVIII :(

however,
PRD IS NOT a left-wing party. it didn't even have the balls to have red in its logo. and why is it that there's always swaztikas and hitler references during their marches? that's such a tired,' knee-jerk reaction.

PRD IS NOT a left-wing party.

I would say that even though I do not trust their leadership, Mr. Cardenas was indeed a left-wing leader, but he made a mistake when organizing the PRD for he did not institutionalize a board of counselors or leader to take desicions as a group, a one man party was instead created, the banana-republic element in the equation, and this is what happens when there is no consensus within an organization. While Mr. Cardenas was dreaming, Mr. Lopez Obrador seized power and neutralized all oppossing factions, he first finished with the Cardenistas who were the first to go, then he neutralized the chuchos, making Jesus Ortega a joke of a leader, and then he got these partners with him, Camacho Solis, Monreal, Noruna, Leonel Cota and the others, and now the PRD is his property.
I think he is getting ready to finally oust Mr. Cardenas: He invited him to join him at the next meeting at the zocalo, perfectly knowing he would never attend, I believe the move is to have a reason to attack him and getting him out of the party. I also believe AMLO is preparing for the future, after the judges ratify Calderon, he will make sure Mr. Cardenas cannot come back to PRD and take his leadership away, for he senses many moderate PRD members will be very glad to see Mr. Cardenas lead the party for the next few years.
It will be very interesting to see what AMLO is going to do to remain on top of Marcelo Ebrad during the next years so that he can run again in 2012. AMLO is very smart and uses information he collects about people. I have learned that many PRD members, including Marcelos Ebrard, have certain secrets, as all politicians do, but they perfectly aware the AMLO knows their secrets and can use them against them. I am certain this is the case of people like Claudia Shaunbam or Leonel Cota, they have an attitude when they come out in press conferences, you can see their eyes looking down all the time, I least this is the impression I get, but I might be wrong.

"What's up Emptyboxes? Are you going to suddenly go blind in the next few days?"

I would like to go blind and deaf. The post-electoral noise has got me so sick and tired of Mexican politics and I think the same is happening with a lot of people, at work for example, the elections is not a good topic anymore. People would rather talk about something else. It is not the Impugnation from PRD but rather all the noise and campaign they continue with, I wonder why nobody tells them that most Mexicans are already tired of it. They should simply wait for TRIFE to reach a veredict. They would do us a great service.
Here in Monterrey you can witness how incredibly ignorant and selfish some of the PRD local party leaders are, they are posting signs, that are suppose to support the Vote by Vote recount, but that instead are extremely offensive of Felipe Calderon, and they are doing this, in a City that voted for Felipe Calderon 5 times more than AMLO, needless to say some of the locals are destroying those stupid signs and the local PRD is not gaining any sympaties.

One of the most common arguments PRD resorts to when attacking PAN, is that PAN allegedly carried out a dirty campaign agaisnt AMLO, calling him a danger to Mexico, but they tend to forget that AMLO had been attacking PAN consistently for several years, and actually had created the concept of PRIAN in people's mind, and it was just as effective. So PAN had to resort to something very agressive in order to even the campaign and clear the way for Felipe Calderon.

Maya0, you make it seem like a populist/socialist can just wave a magic wand and uplift the poor? Where has that ever happened?

Here is some food for thought:

Are we a banana republic?
Yes but maybe NO, we have a post-electoral conflict, but
is the peso falling?
Is our stock market stumbling?
Are foreign and domestic capitals and investors leaving?
The answer to these questions is NO. At least until now.
Moreover, the investor community is already talking and discounting any results. Of course they will be more than happy to see Felipe Calderon winning, as long as he.. Is able to create a coalition government to be able to pass the reforms the country needs sometime next year.
But if AMLO wins, they are also betting that once in power, AMLO and PRD will become more pragmatical and will consider pushing the reforms, pretty much like Lula da Silva did in Brasil, and that the PAN will go along with it and there will be reforms sometime next year.
I guess these are optimistical views but I believe these are logical scenarios. Nothing tell us AMLO will be another Hugo Chavez, our closeness to the United States will obligue to some moderation of any leftist government, the reality of the government budget and the prospect of economic crisis and losing the next elections will also make PRD officials become more pragmatical and adopt more market oriented policies.
What is surprising today is how the peso remains strong, is fluctuates up and down but it moves within a normal and expected range. Same for our interest rates, the lowest in history. Same for our stock market, fluctuating, having good and bad days the same. Our federal reserves are the highest in history, 75 b. and protect us from the prospect of any attack to our currency.
So it begs the question again: Are we still a banana republic? Are we a mature democracy?

AMLO reminds me of John Kerry in the 2004 US campaign, who, from time to time would announce that he "would not tolerate" personal attacks from George Bush. This was a signal that an especcially nasty personal attack against Bush (he was a draft dodger, war mongerer, baby eater, Christian nut, etc etc...) was coming up. AMLO is the same way. His followers whine that the PAN is attacking him, yet he feels no compunction about calling Fox a "Traidor a la democracia", and other sweet things...What a worthless hippocrate.

Emptyboxes, as you know Fox has been a disaster for Mexico, and is a fascist, racist, classist, fanatic, traitor, and el Junque member. How is it possible that under such a person, Mexico has the lowest interest rates in our lifetimes, the highest foreign reserves, the highest rate of home ownership, and the lowest inflation?

One thing that is starting to bother me is how some people are questioning or even insulting each other's reasons to prefer one candidate or another. I've never questioned Jerry or emptyboxes for voting for Calderón, or Pasilla for voting for AMLO. What we're discussing here, and the main problem is if there was a fraud or not.

Why someone voted for their prefered candidate is another subject and that should be respected. Cada quien habla como le fue en la feria. We can't overlook the fact that some people did great during these last six years under Fox's government. We can't overlook the fact that some people did great under AMLO's government in the DF.

Maya0 is accussing the "rich people" of being scared of AMLO because he represents a threat to their economy. Even if this is true I really don't see where is the problem. If their economy did great during Fox's administration and they feel that AMLO might affect that in a negative way they have all the right in the world to support Calderón. They have the right to defend all that they have worked for and vote for continuity. If some people feel that Fox's government hasn't done anything for them they are entitled to demand a change and if they believed AMLO was the best option for them so be it. That's what democracy is about, that's what pluralism is about. If Banamex's Roberto Hernández or Bimbo's Lorenzo Servitje voted for the PAN or if a poor man living on the street voted for AMLO so be it. A rich man's vote is worth the same as a poor man's vote. That's how democracy works; everyone is equal regardless of their social status (and it works both ways, for the rich and for the poor).

Don't try to make this a discussion about the moral quality of the ideologies represented by each candidate because it would be a neverending story, since both sides, left and right, have pros and cons. Even more, both visions part from different ideals: the right wing support liberty above all maybe sacrificing a little equality on the way (e.g. USA), while the left wing gives more importance to equality maybe resting a bit of liberty (e.g. Cuba, URSS). All of the above, of course, taking in count how purely right or left wing the regime is. (Europe doesn't really count since it is more of a center-left kind of model)

Actually, it would be very interesting to discuss which one suits Mexico better. Jerry, emptyboxes and I kind of had a little debate about it in another blog. But in order to do that we need to drop the whole exlploiter/rich fascists/racist/schizophrenic/name calling argument cause it is not helping to raise the level of debate in here in any way.

Maya:

Venezuela is growing despite Chávez, not because of him. Poverty has declined a little since he took office, but it would be almost impossible for it not to with the oil price about seven times higher (SEVEN TIMES) than when he took office (though of course plenty of African governments manage to do it). The fall in poverty should have been larger. Some of his government's poverty reduction programs have results, but, as with the Cuban case, it is not necessary to wreck the economy to institute poverty reduction programs, as has been done recently in Mexico and Brazil. Growth has also been high in the latest years partly because of a rebound from a large fall before, due both to the strike at PDVSA and Chávez's economic policies. Same thing with Argentina. The high growth has a lot to do with the rebound from the crisis, though it might not last much longer if power generation and private businesses in general are not promoted soon by Kirchner. Going back to Venezuela, the murder rate has almost tripled under Chávez, which says a lot about the collapse of already weak institutions due to even less democracy than before.

With respect to Mexico's elections, I believe that if the government had had control of the electoral machinery, it might have cheated the result if it favored López Obrador. Though debatable, the 'desafuero' process seems to me illegitimate (an 'amparo' violation by an authority is not a 'minor' issue as some in the foreign press had it, but it is not either a reason to exclude the leading presidential candidate in a country where the law is not strictly enforced; I would love to see a study that showed how often 'amparos' are violated, to see if it was justice made to order, which is not justice and which I believe was the case, or if the 'desafuero' was valid) and I believe warrants my previous statement. However, the intent in this case is not enough to justify an annulment. Fortunately, there does not seem to be a way for the government to organize a fraud (the main hero here is José Woldemberg). It could only be done by co-opting more than a million people, and in such a case there would surely have arisen some evidence even before the election. There were irregularities in specific places, but that does not amount to fraud (I think it highly irresponsible for the PRD to use the word fraud without hard evidence). Voting station functionaries in some places could have colluded to alter results, but since they were randomly selected from the general population, the cheats could go either way, especially since support between both leading candidates was so evenly divided. I see no reason to suppose PAN supporters had a bigger tendency to cheat than PRD supporters, or that PRI supporters went one way.

Much has been said about possible manipulation of the PREP. The statistical analysis of the likelihood of the way results appeared is interesting, though I am not qualified to give an opinion (interesting, if biased, article of Galbraith's son in the Guardian, quoted by someone above). Its handling by the IFE is certainly suspect and should be addressed later (whether the PRD had no say in the appointments of the IFE heads because of its intransigence and manipulation or if it was mobbed by the other parties, I cannot say). But the PREP results are completely disconnected with the official results, so it is not a central issue. It cannot lead to fraud. Much has been said about Calderón being irresponsible by claiming victory early, but he HAD to, since AMLO had done so previously. In the big leagues it is not possible to be naïve, it is even irresponsible.

As for the proposed full vote recount, it is impractical, not to say impossible (the votes were counted by citizens because it is the most impartial way to do it we have; if they are recounted by an authority, human error should be lower, but so would credibility, which is the whole point in citizens participation, especially since AMLO does not seem to trust anyone and since he has also alleged 'traditional' fraud, like ballot stuffing, against which a recount is useless; if they are recounted by citizens and the results are reversed, Calderón could rightly call for another recount arguing human error, and so ad infinitum). It is illegitimate if not illegal (the fact that the TEPJF has the authority to order a full recount does not mean it should do so without solid justification, which in this case there is not). And it is naïve (it would only lead to annulment, which is clearly what the PRD wants). I am sickened by calls for a recount so that AMLO is pacified. There is no reason for us to try to pacify him and his supporters, it is blackmail. They are a minority. Let them try to wreck the country, so that the left stays in the wilderness for a while longer until it comes back to its senses. I suppose people in the PRD like Ortega, the Cardenas family, Amalia García, Ebrard, etc., are waiting for the TEPJF to issue a ruling to jump ship, being then certain that AMLO would not win, and thus try to minimize the cost to the party without risking having dumped AMLO in the event he happened to win in the ruling.

The PRD has a stronger case for the annulment of the election on the grounds that the Federal Government illegally supported the PAN. Even if it is done in countries like the US, I do not think it is correct in the Mexican case for the president to intervene on behalf of a candidate, not least because for that reason Fox has lost any authority to mediate things now, like the kings of Spain and Thailand can, for example, given their hard won moral authority. The caveat here is that AMLO received huge support also, from the Mexico City government. It is very telling that he blocked public transparency laws for the capital (along with macroeconomic stability and poverty reduction programs, the transparency law and institute are Fox's biggest successes; bear in mind that the illegitimate casino concessions Creel gave Televisa came to light because of this law), and that the big infrastructure projects were directly adjudicated (it was a gem to see Claudia Sheinbaum accepting it was illegal for her to have done it, but that AMLO was clean; never mind that she is of his closest aides). It is obvious that the PRD used the Mexico City government to channel large amounts to its campaign, I would think more dubiously than the Federal Government. The air time was evenly divided, and so spending must have been, and, if not, it was AMLO who got preferential treatment from the TV stations. The PRD complains that businessmen supported Calderón, but remember AMLO received support from many unions. All in all, things were even, and I personally believe that the PAN reacted rather than lead in dubious practices, first versus the PRI at the beginning of Fox's term and then versus the PRD and its practices in the capital's city hall (for PRD internal politics, which is practically a black box to me, see Paco Ignacio Taibo II's article 'Pacto con el Diablo'; well written).

Another reason not to fully recount the votes (not that the above are not enough), and one that is only said in anonymity, is that there exists the possibility of a reversal, if only because human error (unlikely, however; remember that in those booths where there was a recount Calderón increased his votes on average; it is misleading for AMLO to show only cases of counts where he was affected). Under no circumstances should the risk be taken of AMLO winning, especially since, contrary to the 'desafuero' case, the moral case and public opinion are more in the PAN's side. I prefer to have a president not deemed legitimate by a third of the electorate (which should diminish with time, as with Carlos Salinas' case) than having AMLO and his people in the presidency. As 'Catón' rightly said, it is better to have him six months, at the most, in the streets, than six years, at the least, in the presidency. AMLO is dangerous because he wants full power at any cost, amply demonstrated, and because he is a VERY GOOD politician (and manipulator). Add the patronage power of the presidency and the easiness of co-opting PRI deputies, and México barely escaped a very delicate situation. In other words, considering there is not a second round of voting, a particularly able opponent with disturbing characteristics (obviously an approximation, but valid nonetheless), an immature democracy (though not the electoral process itself) and citizenry, and there is a stronger case for realpolitik than for idealism. I can understand the illegitimate and illegal things the PAN has done, like the alliance with Elba Esther Gordillo, and although there are obviously many cases of unjustified moral decline (most obviously Santiago Creel; I feel Marta Sahagún and family started from the bottom, so I see no decline there, though there is in the case of Fox), when faced with such opponents as the PRI and the PRD. The issue is not to be absolutely clean, but to be the least dirty possible without being naïve. For me, so far to vote PAN is a clear-cut case of choosing the lesser evil. I hope that by the next election democracy has taken hold strongly enough for me to be able to vote in terms of decency and not of pragmatism. As in Spain, where, if I were a citizen, I would have switched, as many did, from the PP to Zapatero after Aznar tried to manipulate the Madrid bombings, regardless of their respective programs.

In my opinion AMLO is an effective politician who always gets his objectives. That apparently makes him a good candidate. The problem is how he achieves his objectives, he has not respect for institutions. If he ever becomes president, he will use the priviledge information at his disposal to advance his personal goals and those of his partners. The fact that he showed an audiotape of Elba Esther Gordillo talking on the phone with a governor shows how he feels no shame to use spionage as a political weapon. He has done it before and against his own PRD partners.
He threatens, lies, cheats, plays with information and manipulates facts. We saw it all, first when the affair of the allegedly hidden 3 million votes, they were never hidden, Horacion Duarte always knew about it and he consulted the file the very night of July 2, yet AMLO chose to use it mediatically, publicly questioning IFE in an effort to expose an alledged fraud. Then the manipulation at the districts, then the salamanca video tape.
We have seen it all.

I disagree. I do not think AMLO is a good politician, if he was, he would be president elect right now. Blowing the lead he had in, say, April, should be impossible. Yet he managed to do it. Part of it was skillful campaigning on Calderon's part, but still....

Gee! For a bunch of people who are fed up with politics, you certainly talk a little bit too much about it. As a matter of fact, you were complaining about people from the left becoming silent. I for one don't comment as much as before because I refuse to keep going on rebuting cyclically your same arguments: the magnificent macroeconomic indicators during the Fox administration (never mind the 53 million people living below the poverty line); the sidewalk psychoanalysis (that thing about the low eyes of PRD interviewees was very funny); the partisan past of PRD members... I find amusing how a passionate , apparently young, defender of the left (from Durango, not Nuevo Leon: you should read carefully), maya0, makes you cringe. Anyway, I will comment when there is something new to comment about.

K.Vronna and Bunburina: I still don't get the "modernity" of your leftism. Your speech sounds to me very close to a center-right, almost PANista, one. FYI, Bunburina, I didn't vote for AMLO; in reality, I couldn't vote for anybody; I was disenfranchised.

PS The comment on the lack of red color in the PRD emblem was truly hilarious. Relax, people (including maya0): things are moving along and life goes on.

Now AMLO's camp is demanding Felipe Calderon to accept a vote by vote recount, they are doing it so frenetically, in the voice of Lopez Obrador speaking at several interviews, first in TV Azteca with Alatorre last thursday and then the very next day at Diario Monitor with Gutierrez where he suggested AMLO to send a letter to Felipe Calderon, idea that was inmediately taken by AMLO, who is suppossed to be sending such letter to Felipe Calderon today, as it has been cofirmed by Camacho Solis. This appears to be a new shift in AMLO's strategy, otherwise it would beg the question: Why didn't they think about sending the letter to Felipe Calderon before? And I believe this is happening because AMLO is continually shifting strategies, first there was a cibernetic fraud, then he himself denied it and declared the fraud was carried out the old way, by falsifying the tally sheets of the voting polls. I also tells me that perhaps AMLO's legal strategy suffered the same fate, at first we all thought AMLO's legal strategy to revert the results was to nullify enough Casillas that favoured Felipe Calderon so as to change the totals to his favor, but since they lack the Protests sheets that were suppossed to be filed at the polls on election day and that the Court is now requesting from them and of which they do not have any, it seems to me that AMLO's legal strategy has reached a dead end since they only challenged 50 thousand poll sites and now they demand a total recount, their strategy is also contradictory for at the same time they are challening the polls from districts that favored Felipe Calderon to be recounted or anulled, they are also demanding anullment of the whole election on an Abstract basis, that is that the fraud did not occur at the polls, but that the results of the election were influenced by the President, the media, the business community, etc. The contradiction is that if the Court denies the anullment on these basis, then the whole election was legal and therefore Felipe Calderon is the clear winner, and since they don't have enough evidence to support any of these allegations they are finding themselves at a dead end, where they cannot longer guaranteed to convince the Court to either nullify or to recount all the votes.
The only way out is to have the other party, PAN, and more specifically Felipe Calderon, to agree to demand the Court a vote by vote recount, which then will make it easier to bring along the PRI and the rest of the parties, making it impossible for the Court to deny such a total recount.
This probably explains why PRD is slowly but surely moving to a position where they no longer commit to accept the Courts veredict. As a matter of fact, Camacho Solis implied this yesterday in his interview with Denise Dresser. The tone of his threats has come down, and I believe we will see a PRD trying to offer a friendly hand to Felipe Calderon in an effort to have him agree to a total recount.
The other problem for AMLO is that they didn't expect the IFE to come out in defense of the elections and they have done in a strong manner, denying each and everyone of AMLO's allegations of fraud and basically presenting solid evidences that show to the Court that the election was cleaned and implicitly asking the Court to simply reject AMLO's claims and ratify Felipe Calderon. PAN has also presented their defense allegations and evidences showing to demonstrate their clean victory.
Tough luck for AMLO.

Correction: Camacho's interview was with Denise Maerker and not with Denise Dresser.

All rich are not all bad. That would be generalising people, lumping them all together, and its not fair. But those who have become rich, thru the goverment coffers, thru confilct of intrests, and questionable ethcis, cannot be ignored. Those PANistas here, who comment on how AMLO, and his supporters, and the left, are dangerous, show they are quick in lumping them all together with Castro, and Hugo Chavez purchases of machine guns. You have seen the media blitz that hit AMLO, using profane images and words to link him to danger, and mayhem. Some rich, have benefited, through confilcts of intrests, personal connections to politicians, or becoming politicians, in order to better their own till, and of their cornys. Its obvious that they where scared witless by AMLO and used all their channels to stop him. Visual violence was used by the PAN, by the right wing, yet now its wrong when AMLO and his supporters, defend themselves from a obvious electrol process full of holes. I love how the PAN supporters gleefully use Echeveria, to show what a leftist is. Lucio Cabañas, would have been suprised to know, that the man who had him killed was a leftist for the poor. White brigades, etc. etc. Echeverria was no leftist. Twisting facts is a way of life for most of these PAN supporters, and ignoring history. But history shouldnt be ignored, and the PAN has history that cannot be ignored. Who started the infamous highway blockades, the PAN, who has demanded that the TRIFE, annull elections, demand that ballot boxes be open, when elections havent gone their way? The Pan. The PAN has the current record, over 17 incedents where the PAN, has demanded statisfaction by the TRIFE, and they where complyed. But how dare AMLO, and his supporters, use mass protests, demand recounts from the TRIFE, oh no, it shows a lack of respect, and a lack of patirotisum. Wonder why I call u facists? Its in your actions. You ignore history, you twist facts, and lump all into one. Its ok for PANistas to call for a recount, but not for the PRD. Why? Why are you all so afraid of a recount? Every reasons all of you give, can be shot down one by one. To ignore history is to be condemed to relive it. The PAN wants people to forget its histroy. Its history of demanding recounts, of mass mobilizations, and of course, linking itself with the PRI, in order to benefit from being close to power. Ugalde, Elba Esther, Felipe Calderon, all partied together, PRI and PAN, in the privacys of their own homes. Confilct of intrests? Smells rotton, no matter how you look at it. If it looks wrong, it is wrong. You all cannot be so naive. It takes guts, to look at the facts as they are, and not ignore them, or twist them into someting else. Fact, Mexico has had no growth during Foxs term. Fact, those countries in Latin America that have turn away form the status economic modes, have had growth, and that includes countries that dont have oil. Fact, the peso has fallen shrapley, thru mini devaluations, less shock, yet same effect. Fact, the price of basic needs, like milk, tortillas, bread, etc. etc. have risen shraply also during these PAN years. Perhaps, most of these PAN supporters, send their maids to do the shopping, i dunno, but low intrests rates havent kept the price of tortillas from going thru the roof. A tiny percentage of Mexicans have benefited no doubt, but theirs no trickle down effect here. Fact is, Mexico with the PRI, didnt work, and with the PAN is more of the same. Facts, you cannot ignore facts. Fact is, the TRIFE, not FECAL or AMLO will decide what to do. Seven men who have nothing to lose. Their ten year terms are up, they get paid like royality, in order to keep them clean. They have nothing to lose, and outside experts, clearly state, that favors AMLO. Why are the PANistas so afraid of mass demenstrations, of people calling for a recount, Voto X Voto, casilla X casilla? Must be something to hide. Something that the PANIstas Facistas, and clearly some racistas(cant have no naco indio in the chair)are good at. Hiding from facts, and the truth of history, which if ignored, will condem us to repeat it. FECAL would clearly be condeming Mexico to repeat history again. Zero growth, and high prices for basic needs. No thanks, I pefer to see clearly, and a recount, will help clear the air in Mexico, and isnt that what we all should strive for? If your against a recount, your clearly against Mexico. And thats a fact.

For all those Fox/Calderon supporters, please GET REAL. You guys better wake up and stop living in the place very well known as "Foxilandia" where people are happy, there's no poverty, there's true democracy, etc.

One question, when was the last time you got a chance and talk with an illegal mexican immigrant and ask him/her about the reasons for coming to this country?

I think the economic model for the last 18 years or more has proven wrong. Why? simple fact IMMIGRATION TO THE US.

I'm a legal resident of this country, but if today we would have a good economic model creating jobs, I'd be the first one packing my stuff and going back to Mexico, but I guess it's good to keep dreaming right?

other question for those PAN/Calderon supporters, when was the last time you visit those areas in Mexico where people could barely cover their needs and many times not even that?

GET REAL!!! we neeed a change in the economic model. I could care less if its the PRD, PAN or even PRI the ones in charge as far as I know all is the same.

Here we go again. Maya zero, "why wouldn't I call you fascists?" Maybe because you are too uneducated or immature to engage in reasoned discourse with people of good faith who disagree with you.

Please explain to me what "visual violence" is. Does this mean attacking someone with words? Boo Hoo, stop crying, that happens in an election campaign. Are you trying to justify REAL violence, such as the attack on Calderon' car,for example, or possible future real violence as threatened by Camacho Solis (who knows a thing or two about violence, from his days as a PRIista) because someone hurt your idol's feelings? Repeat, boo hoo. Get over it. You insulted me by calling