The situation seems to be that Calderon has legally won but just by an eyelash, and Lopez Obrador will refuse to accept any outcome in which he does not become el Presidente de Mexico.

This is a scenario for outright civil war, right across our southern border -- Mexico's rich capitalistic northern provinces, versus its poor leftist/populist southern provinces, which is how the votes split in the election just over.

What are the chances of avoiding such a disastrous outcome?

Gringoviejo-- Such a sad scenario need not take place, but it is the specter of this that makes many of us nervous about AMLO's irresponsible accusations. He has a right to contest the election results and condemn any mischief he can document. The problem is-- he seems to have no evidence, just a lot of innuendo and speculation. What is even more amazing is that some people who seem rational and intelligent are actually going along with him.

I don't think this will lead to civil war, but here is what very well could happen--

The TRIFE does a recount and declares Calderon the winner (again). AMLO then condemns the TRIFE and claims the judges took bribes. He will have no more evidence for this than he did to show that his own PRD representatives took bribes to facilitate the vote fraud, but he will make the accusation and millions of fools will believe him.

Calderon then takes office amid street protests and possibly some violent actions. He proceeds with badly needed reforms, hopefully with the help of legislators from the PRI. The PAN-PRI alliance of convenience provides stability and helps the nation get through the turbulence caused by Lopez Obrador and his fanatics. Cooler heads in the PRD-- the Cardenas faction, for example, prevail eventually and AMLO ends up like subcomandante Marcos.

He will be able to fill plazas and rant and rave. He will command great respect from a certain small segment of the Mexican population, but to most people he will just be the clown who lost and couldn't accept it. There won't be a civil war, but there will be a deep, bitter divide that will eat at Mexico's heart for some time. Part of it will be based on real grievances and resentment felt by the poor, who make up nearly half the population. Whether a significant percentage of the poor continues to back Lopez Obrador or not, the suspicions and distrust he fomented and exploited will continue. Mexico will make slower progress in eliminating poverty and moving fully into the modern world. Much of the fault for this will reside with the man who saw himself as the country's messiah.

Much like in Florida 2000...what exactly is the problem with a careful and comprehensive recount? If there are questions, do the full recount and resolve them.

Seems pretty simple to me. Or you can let some judges decide...it worked so well in 2K. Left everyone united allright.

Clearly the margin of Calderon's victory (.58%) is too narrow to conclude with certainty -and this IS a Constitutional provision - that he won the election.

Vote counting in Mexico is done manually at the polling stations by poorly trained civilians, a provision designed to distance public servants from the process and is rooted on society's historical distrust of the government's handling of elections.

In most places the counting is done after a long day at the polling stations, and it starts at around 7.30PM. This is, from the 14th to the 17th hours of a working day!

Without even taking into consideration AMLO's claims, just the fatigue and prevailing illiteracy, what would you think would be an accurate estimate for the degree of error at each station?

If over .58%, then AMLO has a case -and a good chance.

I agree with "What is the problem." Votes have been cast and if there is uncertainty, it can easily be sorted out by a re-count.

Why risk the prospect of long-term instability over the claims of fraud when all it would take is a couple of weeks to clarify the issue

If Calderon is not hiding anything then he should be overtly promoting the re-count as a source of legitimacy.

Vicente Fox was not suppose to participate in the campagn of Calderon.This is a good reason to cancel this election.

Mexico needs social programs to go out of the third world. Only Obrador can give it to the Mexicans.

Viva Mexico

Jocelyn, you say that "Only Obrador can give it to the Mexicans." If this was a forum on some site like rotten.com, you would already have a couple hundred detailed (and obscene) descriptions of exactly how he was going to "give it to" the Mexicans.

Mexico does NOT need social programs to get out of the third world, it needs JOBS. To provide jobs, there must be a certain stability, low inflation, steady exchange rate, and the government should not spend more than it recieves in taxes. Somehow I doubt that AMLO will "give us" that scenario.

As to Fox "participating" in the campaign, come on, that kind of thing has been going on in Mexico and the world since day one. If you think the PRD govt. of the DF did not participate in Ebrard's campaign, you are nuts.

Some people are advocating for a recount, saying thats the only way things can settle down, the problem is not a recount (wich by the way, its ILLEGAL unless theres actual proof of irregularities), the problem is that we are facing a man (Obrador), who consistently has ignored the law, used social pressure to gets his way (even if its illegal), and changed his mind as many times as it takes in order to adjust the situation to his advantage.

Mexico has a historic problem, this problem is what prevents this nation from achieving its full potential, and that problem is NOT ENFORCING THE RULE OF LAW. People and politicians rutinely twist and ignore the law and prevent a climate of stability and fairness from blossoming. Now we have a candidate that wants the law to be broken so he can win and promiss to enforce the very same laws he is breaking??

I am completely against a recount, and not because i want calderon to win, but because i completely refuse to let a rogue wannabe president, to lie and pressure his way into the presidency. THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT THIS NATION DOES NOT NEED, a liar, a man of no word, a manipulator.

I am sick and tired of my goverment givin in to lawless groups, to politicians that use the poor as means to bargain for political power, and i will be damn if i am going to sit her and let this clown walk over our laws to get a second try at a game he already lost.

I think the TRIFE may (and should) simply refuse to grant AMLO's recount request since he has already said basically said that he will not accept any verdict that goes against him. Why should a court waste time ruling if they know they are going to be ignored anyway?

Speaking of the RULE of LAW, including the electoral rule of law, I posted this yesterday:

The rule of electoral law in Mexico states that: (1) the current president shall not use the presidential podium to make statements in favour of any candidate running for the next presidential term and (2) that the winner of the election shall be declared only by the federal electoral tribunal.

Both AMLO and Felipe Calderon declared themselves winners of the election on election night, thereby violating the rule of law. Vicente Fox openly and repeatedly used the presidential podium in support of Calderon during the presidential campaign, to the extent that even the IFE had to warn him against making further statements. Therefore, Fox also violated the rule of law. To make things worse, the IFE insinuated that the winner of the election was Calderon, without first waiting for the federal tribunal to make this declaration.

When the rule of electoral law is broken by the current president, then by the IFE and sadly by two of the highest-ranking candidates, fears of electoral fraud --whether founded or unfounded-- surface only naturally. I believe that we Mexicans must first come to terms with the fact that the rule of electoral law has not only been broken by both of the leading presidential candidates, but also by our current president. Any purist statments placing blame for this conflict on either the leftist or the right-wing candidate are simply the result of passionate politics and not objective self-criticism. We Mexicans saw this coming a mile away before the election and we let it happen by not telling our president to stay out of our polling stations.

The fact that has happened in Mexican history before --using the presidential podium in support of the next candidate, colloquially known as "dedazo" -- is no excuse for it to continue. This is about democracy and not the perpetuation of power.

While it is true that the people who counted the votes may have been poorly trained, being as how they are voluntary citizens working for their country, it also true that the votes are counted in front of party representatives. All together, the IFE volunteers and the party representatives, we are talking about at least 9 people observing the counting, and that when there are only three parties represented at the poll desk.
How many people do you need to count the votes?
The true is there are many filters in place and we have a great electoral system. We wouldn't be in this situation if we had responsible people running for office.
AMLO is desperate, he is crazy for power and his ambition is greater than his love for his country. He is right to go to the tribunals but he should sit and wait for them to decide. Already we Mexicans know he will not recognize the results.
A problem with the vote-by-vote recount is that is presuposses an strategy from the PRD or PAN when the recounting is performed because naturally they will object to all votes in those districts where they already know they lost and they will try to nullify them and we will be in for many months of litigation over one sigle vote that had a little scratch and that PRD wants to nullify and PAN wants to make valid.
We have a law that foresees this scenario and allows for a recount of a specific Poll Desk only when there are valid evidence that the ballots need to be recounted.
And by the way, the votes can be counted many times before the sealing of the package at the end of the election day.
At the district counting the party representatives have another chance to clarify and open if they show evidence enoungh to sustantiate the need to open the ballot packages.
Our Electoral Process does not need anything. It works. What needs to be changed is people like AMLO. They should be sent back home to Tabasco to deal with the local caciques there.

Bernardo Quintana:

You say "Clearly the margin of Calderon's victory (.58%) is too narrow to conclude with certainty -and this IS a Constitutional provision - that he won the election."

Please, tell me where does it say the in Mexican Constitution that 243,000 votes are not enough of a difference in any election. There are a lot of cities in Mexico that don't have that many people.

"Vote counting in Mexico is done manually at the polling stations by poorly trained civilians."

Have you ever participated as a funcionario on a federal level or are you just repeating what someone else said as an excuse to challenge the process? Please, note that most of the balloting places challenged by the "Coalition for the good of all" were not in the most backward part of Mexico. Sorry. But, I hate generalizations without proof.

voto por voto casilla por casilla el pueblo de mexico no va a permitir otro 88, fraude a la vista de todos, mexico no olvida y si no ahi estan los millones de personas que se expresaron pacificamente el domingo 16 de julio,

NO rotundamente no se desconfia de los miles de ciudadanos voluntarios que contaron los votos fungiendo como funcionarios de casilla, la gente conto bien y quizas tuvo errores humanos. Sin embargo esos votos que contaron esas personas que en realidad son la parte fundamental del IFE, no coinciden con lo que se capturo en el PREP, o despues en el cotejo de las actas muestra de esto son los resultados que en el acta se presentaban y no correspondian a la cantidad de votos en el paquete electoral. Es decir las actas ya en los consejos distritales fueron manipuladas o al momento de mandar la información al IFE central del df ahi es donde se produce el FRAUDE estimados amigos lectores NUNCA EN EL CONTEO QUE SE REALIZO con la participacion de los ciudadanos. Entiendan por eso es que se debe hacer voto por voto no por que se desconfie de ellos sino de Hildebrando que fue denunciado no por lopez obrador, sino en una investigacion en el periodico LA jornada eldia 20 de abril 2006 chequen esa fecha, hildebrando metio las manos truqueo los datos por medio de software que en simulacros del IFe fue probado. Atencion Fraude a ojos visibles.

Julio Leal, you repeat slogans very well. How long did it take to memorize that? As to the "millones de personas" last sunday, it was more like one million, maybe less, and should surprise no one, since most of the Chilangos voted for AMLO anyway, and a good many of the people in the Zocalo were probably accareados.

Raul, this is about democracy, and in a democracy the person with the most votes wins. Unless you think the Mexican voting public is too stupid to decide on their own how to vote, and has to wait for Fox or the church or whoever to tell them how to vote, election propaganda does not really matter. Every one is smart enough to make up their own mind, right?

Just a few things:

a) About the "poorly trained civilians": all you have to do when you are an official in a balloting place (I've been one twice) is to check that the IFE card matches with the booklet you're given, mark the voter's finger and count the votes. The harderst part maybe to fill up the tally sheets but, when you're notified that you'll be an official at a balloting place, you're given by your IFE instructor a small guide with an example of how to fill them up. In my case, in both times the IFE instructor came to my place to prepare me for the election day, we did a little practice of how to fill up a tally sheet so I wouldn't mess it up on such an important date.

So, to sum it up, all you need to know is to write and count. It is not brain surgery. And you don't count the ballots once, you count them up to 20 times or more by the 4 balloting place officials and the parties' representatives; you count them any number of times until everyone is happy with it. It is important to add that the IFE, of the 6 million people they randomly call for the election, they select 1 million considering their previous experience and they educational level so, if in a poor community you have as options someone who just finished till 5th grade and someone who made till secundaria, the IFE ends up choosing the person who has the highest educational level, in other words, the secundaria graduate.

From my perspective, the only chance of a confusion is on the tally sheets. The copies given to the parties are done with carbon paper, and as you all well know, they don't always work all that well. So, if you write on the official tally sheet 167, in the last copy it would probably appear like a 107 or 67. The problem isn't in the counting of the votes, is on the copy of the tally sheet. A solution to this is to insist to the officials to use the carbon paper and then to rewrite over the numbers in every copy so it is clearly shown the result of the election.

That's why the IFE has a file appart for those balloing places with differences in their tally sheets. A file that was later included in the results of the PREP and that were clarified with the district recount.

b) About president Fox's supprot to Calderón: I don't know where the drama is. It is something that is expected in an election. In the USA and France, just to name a few, presidents actually run for reelections, they campaign being the actual president and no one complaints of unfairness in the election. Cases in point, the actual president of France Jacques Chirac and Germany's Angela Merkel who won the election over Gerard Schröder who at the time was the chancellor of that country.

Besides, you're forgetting that Calderón wasn't Fox's candidate, it was Santiago Creel, and just like it happened with him six years ago, the higher official of the PAN, including the president, didn't support him util the middle of the campaign. And now that we are on an accusatory mode, we have to be objective. A jalar parejo. Marcelo Ebrard didn't even do a proper capaign of himself he relied on the AMLO effect using public funding of the government of the DF. And he won. Even to this minute, the building of the DF government shows cartoons and signs supporting AMLO.

In name of justice, if we are going to blame the president for supporting Calderón, shouldn't we blame too AMLO and Encinas for supporting Ebrard?

c) About the vote by vote recount: actually I agree, if the PAN really won the election they should be no problem in supporting the vote by vote recount. And I agree, that would bring a lot more certainty to the result. The sad part is that it is against the law. And another problem that was created by AMLO himself: in the hypothetical case the vote by vote recount is done, who would count them? Since the IFE are a bunch of delinquents and sell-outs to the PAN there's no one in the political map with the creadibility Saint AMLO needs to recount the votes.

So, the vote by vote recount isn't happening.

So yesterday some radical supporters of PRD offended and attacked Felipe Calderon and PRD and AMLO justified them. This is the thug they wanted to get to office. This is the thug hypocrite analists like Raymundo Riva-Palacios, Denise Dresser, Carlos Monsivais and other radical UNAM graduated writers defended and justified, some openly some not so openly. What will they say about this new and violent incident, and about AMLO's threat against Felipe Calderon's family in front of a million people?
Now there is the firm conviction, in the great mayority of Mexicans, that AMLO must not get to power or trouble will arise, and I mean real trouble, not the little things these PRD underachievers from Mexico City can do, that is nothing. Many people in north Mexico are even considering splitting the country and forgetting about the poor and eternaly subsidized south.

Most PRD followers come to do here is to repeat like parrots their baseless slogan. Vote by vote as if the votes had not been counted before, they will repeat whatever their mesianic leader tells them. There is no rationale in these poor, untutored and frustrated underachievers and they always destroy any intelligent discussion, we must be careful not to pay much attention to them.

Emptyboxes:

It is extremely intelligent to call PRD followers "untutored and frustrated underachievers." By the way, what exactly do yo mean by "untutored"? Just checking. But, again, as I said before, what can one expect from somebody who calls a writer of the stature of Carlos Monsivais "mentally challenged pesudo-intellectual."? By the way, you have to inform President Fox that his Secretary of Education, President of the selection committee for the National Prize of Sciences and Arts, is a left-leaning intellectual, as other collaborators like Xochitl Galvez and Sari Bermudez, committee members, also are. One more sample of your, and Jerry Bourbon's missinformed, or worst, brays.

Contrary to your disdain, I pay attention to what you write, even if it's nonsense, and wonder with sadness every time what educational institutions, what social milieu engenders in an individual so much bigotry, so much hate against fellow Mexicans.

Intelectual superiority is not trumpeted, but demonstrated. And I have not seen much of that in your discourse.

Pasilla, "hate against fellow Mexicans" is better demonstrated with actions, not words in an English language forum. Actions like attacking the car of Calderon as he is leaving a meeting.

pasilla: I believe you are right. "Intelectual superiority is not trumpeted, but demonstrated"
But there is no stature in Mexican intellectuals who write for a presupossed and brained-washed reading clientele from Tlalpan or any other non panista delegation of DF or for the pleasure of UNAM students and professors. A true Mexican intellectual must ponder on the state of the nation, completely, from Baja California and all the way to Yucatan and he or she must also ponder on how they think and what they want Mexico to be, the whole Mexico, not only Mexico City. There are very good writers in Mexico and who are truly national writers but I will not mention them here.
The same happens for UNAM, taken hostage by an ideologically-oriented gang. Instead of being a national university, it is a leftist university that represents the points of view of only a part of Mexico.
People vote, and this vote must also be respected as a point of view. The results of the elections greatly contradict what the UNAM represents, greatly ridicule what all these pseudo-intellectual tried to conviced us of, what they tried to sell us.
Mexico is not Tlalpan, or Mexico City. It is much greater than that and our intellectuals must be up to the task.

Dont want violence? Then do a recount, what is Calderon, the PAN and FOX, trying to hide? Dont give already desperate people reason to act out violently, and to deney a full recount, vote by vote, to declare himself, like napleon, winner, to have FOX lie, when he said hes obeyed limits on helping FECALs campain, when everyone saw how open it was. When u have the media, a virtual goverment mouthpiece, commercial after commercial, lying about how dangerous AMLO would be to Mexico, big money also harping against AMLO all illegal actions. Is it any wonder that the young man gave FECAL the finger? Its only through a full recout will u aviod that finger turning into a gun.

Jerry Bourbon:

If you call AMLO followers "untutored and frustrated underachievers," what dou you expect in return, a bouquet of flowers? Let's keep things in perspective. What damage can do a bare hand against an armored van? Besides, AMLO didn't justify the act, only explained what he thinks were the motives. I know what you and emptyboxes are going to say; you are going to make AMLO responsible for the behaviour of all of his followers. Did Calderon asked either of you to come to this forum to call names to respected intellectals, or you do it on your own? Did Calderon asked emptyvotes to come here to threaten with a North-South country split, or is his own bragging? I want to remind you once more that the advertisement about the "danger to Mexico" (that was found ILLEGAL) was paid by the PAN.

Emptyboxes:

Come on! Why don't you mention the intellectuals of your preference? Is it fair to name only those who you insult, because they think different than you? People is worth of your class only if they think alike. By the way, the voting perhaps represents UNAM, but not for the reason you imply. UNAM is a diverse institution, and I'm sure that the division of the country, at least at the Presidential election level, is just a pale image of the diversity of opinions debated in the UNAM, one of the great universities of the world. To save you poisson, I didn't study in UNAM.

"Dont want violence? Then do a recount, what is Calderon, the PAN and FOX, trying to hide?"

Your sound like the perfect uninformed brainwashed Andres Manuel supporter, all you have is the slogans he is feeding you. Please, read what i say and actually think.

1.-Calderon, Pan, and Fox DO NOT have the power to decide if theres a recount or not, only the TRIFE can decide that.

2.-Doing a recount, is ILLEGAL if there is NO PROOF of irregularities. If the TRIFE decides to do a recount, its because theres something wrong and i believe than THEN the entire nation would side with Obrador for a recount, even myself. If the court sees no evidence of wrong doing, then all we have is a sore loser who cannot accept his defeat.

I am glad to see Jerry Bourbon, bunburina and others taking on this strange charge that Fox somehow violated the law by supporting Calderon. I was not in Mexico for the entire campaign period, but I never saw him overly do anything to support Calderon. Is there a photo somewhere of Fox on a podium with Calderon, smiling and waving at the crowd of supporters?

So, as others have pointed out, Fox is perhaps guilty of doing what the PRD government did in the DF, he trumpeted his own government's successes, which implied that people should vote for continuity. In what democracy in the world is this not done?

More to the point, however, is the whole AMLO approach to declaring fraud. If there was an unfair set up from the beginning, then why did he participate? Why didn't he condemn the whole process as a farce and withdraw? If there was fraud, was it a computer manipulation, as he first charged, or was it old style, as he now says? But even more to the point-- where is the proof?

As to the recount-- I think most people now feel a recount would be a good idea politically just to clear the air. But there may be some legal problems with that and I am not sure how the TRIFE will handle it. But if the whole apparatus established for counting the votes the first time has been called into question, why would anyone have more confidence in the TRIFE counters? Of course, God himself could come down from heaven with a bunch of angels to do the count and if it came out with a one-vote victory for Calderon, AMLO would claim the PAN paid off a few angels or maybe even God himself. Next thing you know there would be marchers in the Zocalo with banners condemning God.

Lopez Obrador has just admitied in an interview, that he will NOT accept Calderon's win even AFTER a recount.

He has gone completely insane and hopefully, many of his more moderate and intelligent followers will realize that we now truly, have a Hugo Chavez on the making.

Wouldn't you be suspicious if your oponents Brother-in-law owned the company that wrote the softwar to count the votes for the IFE? Wait a minute that sound familar dosn't it? Software company executives whose companies write the code for the elections, having close ties to conservative politicians who win by a hairs breadth. could't be nahh nothing suspicious here.

Jesse, I'm not sure if I'm intelligent, but I would like to read the transcript of the interview that you mention and make my own mind, instead of trusting your biased criterion. If you are talking about an interview with Adriana Perez Canedo, a summary can be read in the website of Proceso; and AMLO said something a tad different, notwithstanding your histeric (and, franlkly already stale) comparison to Hugo Chavez.

My wife was in the city of Oaxaca on election day. She noticed several things.
1) the people wanted to vote. Voter turnout was in greater percentages than the US ever gets.
2) People were almost violent went told that their polling place ran out of ballots.

#2 raises the important question.. IF Polling places ran out of ballots... and all were used. THen who voted???

So, in OTHER countries it is okay for the president to show support for the candidate of his political party during a presidential campaign. It is against the rule of law in Mexico. No drama. It´s just the law.

This is a fundamental principle to bear in mind when discussing the rule of law. It must be firmly set by example by the President. If it is not, it allows for others to demand equal flexibility with the rule of law and demand, for example, a vote by vote recount.

I was one of those that where in the fence waiting until at the very end, i decided to vote for AMLO. And i have to admit, i made a very grave mistake by giving this man my vote, in fact, i am angry that i waited 4 hrs in the sun in order to cast my ballot for him. What i find completely disturbing, is the fact that he has changed his mind so many times during these 2 weeks, he has gone from accusing the PREP, to accusing IFE, to accusing Fox, to accusing Calderon, to accusing his own followers. He has also changed his mind by saying that he would trust the TRIFE, only to later say he would only accept a recount, and now apparently, the man is saying that even if Calderon wins in a recount, he wont concede defeat.

At this point in time, i have to say i am disgusted, angry, and very dissapointed at his behavior, and now wish the election to be cancelled in order for my to correct my mistake and vote for anyone except this irresponisble man.

I support having another election, by this time, hundreds of thousands of moderate voters like me, who trusted Obrador to be a fair and moderate, will no doubtely, change thier minds.

Martin

Were the people that you say were not able to vote at a regular balloting station or a special one?

If they were at special balloting station usually located in airports, train & bus stations, and border crossings, there were only 750 ballots available. This is because those people were voting outside of their district and the political parties agreed that only 750 ballots could be provided for each station. These are set up for people who are intransit, have recently changed residence or live on the border.

The regular balloting stations have ballots for all of the people on the nominal lists assigned to the station plus ballots for the political party representatives accredited to that station. All of which are folioed to avoid stuffing. I don't think that any regular balloting station can run out of ballots.

Principles that rule the behavior of the Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) according to the 41st article of the Constitution:
a) Certainty
b) Legality
c) Independence
d) Impartiality
e) Objectivity

Proof of fraud:
1. Before the election
a) The 9 member General Council of the IFE doesn't fulfill the principles of Impartiality and Objectivity. 5 of the "consejeros", including Luis Carlos Ugalde, represent Elba Esther Gordillo's PRI parliamentary fraction. 4 were placed by the PAN parliamentary fraction. The PRD fraction led by Pablo Gómez was excluded from the negotiations.
Considering that Gordillo has manifested publicly and privately her pragmatic adherence to Felipe Calderón's campaign, there exists a strong possibility that most of the "consejeros" preferences were tilted towards the right-wing candidate.
Additionally, Calderón himself was witness to Ugalde's wedding, which raises suspicion towards the relationship of the presidential candidate and the top "consejero".

b) Electoral Law (Cofipe):
Art. 48.-
fraction 1:
Electoral proselytism on radio and television is an exclusive right of political parties.
fraction 13:
Under no circumstances will third parties be allowed to make electoral proselytism on radio or television.

One of the leading chambers of commerce and industry: the Consejo Coordinador Empresarial (CCE), as well as certain enterprises like Jumex or PepsiCo (Sabritas), and certain businessmen like Victor González Torres, among others, violated the 48th article of the Cofipe law, under the tacit complicity of the General Council of the IFE. The damage towards the left-wing candidate had been
already done by the time the Electoral Tribunal of the Federation's Judicial Power (TEPJF) forced the IFE to uphold its responsibilities on the application of the Law.
The same happened when the head of the Federation's Executive Power, Citizen President Vicente Fox Quezada, was scolded, a little too late, for staging a massive campaign on the media trying to convince the citizenship of the benefits of continuity and the inherent "dangers" in the opposition's project.
The fact remains that the CG-IFE reacted late. Such ambiguity subverts the principles of legality and objectivity and lays the foundations for an inequitive campaign.
c) The fourth power: the mass media.
The omnipresent duopoly of Televisa and TV Azteca, after the approval of the, at all glances, unconstitutional Media Law (colloquially known as the "Ley Televisa"/ see art. 28 of the Constitution), made a poor job of disguising the fact that they had thrown their weight behind presidential candidate Felipe Calderón.
This fact completely undermines any trace of equity in the campaign. When every single news-anchor, talk-show host, soap opera character, commercial ad, interviewer, guest intellectual, poll, or radio announcer, kept repeating the same message: lies and slander about the left-wing candidate, his project, his administration as Mayor of Mexico City, and his biography became, by force of repetition, truths, doubts, or, in the worst case, fears in society's subconscious.
d) There is strong suspicion that federal social programs were used with electoral motives. Josefina Vázquez Mota, Calderón's current campaign coordinator, used to direct the Social Development Secretariat (Sedesol) under Fox's administration. Up to date, no evidence has been placed forward by the federal government to clear any doubts about the illegal use of such programs.
e) Carmen Aristegui, a very respected independent journalist in Mexico, reported on her CNN show that the PAN had internet access to strictly confidential data concerning the elector lists. Possession of these databases is an exclusive right of the IFE.
Presumably, Diego Hildebrando Zavala (Calderón's brother in law) through his company: Datanet, after securing a contract with the IFE (product of "tráfico de influencias") managed to get a hold of the lists.
Possession of said lists undermines completely any trace of equity in the campaign. Multiple assumptions or suspicions are raised from this fact:
- Did Calderón have an unfair advantage over his rivals while campaigning?
- Were the personalized phone calls and letters designed to scan the electoral register for possible voters or adversaries?
- Were some electors erased ("rasurados") or misplaced from the electoral register?

Here's an attachment to see Carmen Aristegui's video (for those who speak Spanish):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BFMoibL-3As&search=aristegui

The arguments above were placed to prove that the electoral process strayed far from the principles stated in the 41st article of the Constitution and the Cofipe Electoral Law.
From my point of view, they are evidence enough to annul the whole process altogether (regrettably, a worst case scenario were both the right-wing and left-wing partisans, and the country as a whole have much to lose from).

I hope I have time to state more arguments to prove unfairness and fraud during and after the electoral process in future interventions on this same blog.

Martin

Were the people that you say were not able to vote at a regular balloting station or a special one?

If they were at special balloting station usually located in airports, train & bus stations, and border crossings, there were only 750 ballots available. This is because those people were voting outside of their district and the political parties agreed that only 750 ballots could be provided for each station. These are set up for people who are intransit, have recently changed residence or live on the border.

The regular balloting stations have ballots for all of the people on the nominal lists assigned to the station plus ballots for the political party representatives accredited to that station. All of which are folioed to avoid stuffing. I don't think that any regular balloting station can run out of ballots.

On july 2nd, 2006, a sunday, here in the north of Mexico, 8am was suppose to be the starting time of the elections. Well, I personally went to vote early, at 8am, and suprise, the voting booths where not ready yet, and by 9am, a small line of people where standing by waiting for the boxes to be placed, kits open, etc. etc. Not untill a bit after 9am, did they finally open, allowing the 1st ppl to vote. Now, was this happening in how many places all over Mexico? Of 130,000, what? 50,000? How many people could not vote at that early hour, workers perhaps, it was sunday, but still ppl work even on sunday, and how many didnt vote, because their poll place was not open on time? This alone, is proof that the election was run incompentently, and the demand for a recount, should be obeyed. Oh, and to those people who still want to think of AMLO as a danger to Mexico, he was mayor for 5 years, and Mexico city didnt get blown off the map. So get real, AMLO will be like roosevelt, using the goverment in massive projects that will lift millions out of poverty, which is what is needed in Mexico. Not these modern day tecno bandits, who use brother in laws, to help create software, a la ohio elections. Enough is enough! Recount! Vote by Vote. Or are they afraid of the outcome? The stealing of the elections, and that AMLO is the legitimate president of Mexico.

Here are two comments taken off of Yahoo news:
First, AMLO on the thugs who menaced Felipe Calderon "Lopez Obrador later declined to criticize the protesters, saying, "I don't condemn it. I condemn electoral fraud."

Second, "An opinion poll released on Tuesday showed about 56 percent of Mexicans think the election was clean but 35 percent believe there was fraud."

In other words, the people who voted for AMLO are sure there is fraud, but the rest of the country would like to move on.

The way things are going, Calderon ought to suggest that the IFE order a runoff between him and AMLO. That, once and for all, would be the end of AMLO's political career. (But, he would surely whine fraud there, too.)

Incidentally, did anyone see the little note in El Universal about the Atenqueros who were marching down the street in Mexico City, masked and carrying machetes? If I put on a mask and got a machete and headed up the street in Tijuana, the police would grab me in about three seconds. Why doesn't the (PRD dominated) govt. of the DF do something about this??????

Maya, I was out and about riding my bicycle early Sunday morning, and passed, between 8:00 and 8:30 about 20 polling stations (in "Northern Mexico", Tijuana to be exact). 19 were open, one was not, and had a line waiting. So what? Who do you think runs the elections, angels from on high? They are run by about a million ordinary people like us, and in a million people, you will find screw ups. Do you, by chance, have a better suggestion on how to run them?

Furthermore, how is a RECOUNT going to help your idol if the fraud was in preventing people from voting in the first place? If somebody did not vote, you can count the votes as often as you like, but his vote will not be there. Do you want a new election? Bring it on (as another president rather foolishly said). Having enjoyed 3 weeks of AMLO's paranoia, finger pointing and veiled threats of violence, a new election will not be decided by any 240,000 votes.

I was one of those that where in the fence waiting until at the very end, i decided to vote for AMLO. And i have to admit, i made a very grave mistake by giving this man my vote, in fact, i am angry that i waited 4 hrs in the sun in order to cast my ballot for him. What i find completely disturbing, is the fact that he has changed his mind so many times during these 2 weeks, he has gone from accusing the PREP, to accusing IFE, to accusing Fox, to accusing Calderon, to accusing his own followers. He has also changed his mind by saying that he would trust the TRIFE, only to later say he would only accept a recount, and now apparently, the man is saying that even if Calderon wins in a recount, he wont concede defeat.

At this point in time, i have to say i am disgusted, angry, and very dissapointed at his behavior, and now wish the election to be cancelled in order for my to correct my mistake and vote for anyone except this irresponisble man.

I support having another election, by this time, hundreds of thousands of moderate voters like me, who trusted Obrador to be a fair and moderate, will no doubtely, change thier minds.

I was one of those that where in the fence waiting until at the very end, i decided to vote for AMLO. And i have to admit, i made a very grave mistake by giving this man my vote, in fact, i am angry that i waited 4 hrs in the sun in order to cast my ballot for him. What i find completely disturbing, is the fact that he has changed his mind so many times during these 2 weeks, he has gone from accusing the PREP, to accusing IFE, to accusing Fox, to accusing Calderon, to accusing his own followers. He has also changed his mind by saying that he would trust the TRIFE, only to later say he would only accept a recount, and now apparently, the man is saying that even if Calderon wins in a recount, he wont concede defeat.

At this point in time, i have to say i am disgusted, angry, and very dissapointed at his behavior, and now wish the election to be cancelled in order for my to correct my mistake and vote for anyone except this irresponisble man.

I support having another election, by this time, hundreds of thousands of moderate voters like me, who trusted Obrador to be a fair and moderate, will no doubtely, change thier minds.

See how dumb FECALs supporters are?, I mention that the late opening of poll places was but one of numerous things that happen on july 2nd, that had it occuered anywhere else, would have null and void the election. What part of that is hard to understand? This reminds me of how PAN backers say that Mexico is split down the middle because 16 south states went to AMLO and 16 north states went to FECAL, and somehow they won, because the north is bigger than the south, yes its bigger in size, but not in people...Get real, AMLO won the largest city of Mexico., the most populated state, the state of Mexico, the southern states,where most of Mexico resides, and he also took northern votes, i live in the north, and voted for him. That alone, by sheer numbers, logic followed that AMLO won, but nope, FECAL won because the north all voted for him. Wheres the logic in that? So lets open them ballot boxes, and vote by vote, see who won. Why are they afraid to recount all of them? Because the truth would show that AMLO is the legitimate president of Mexico.

A young child is born, at the IMSS, maternity services provided by the Federal Government: hospital, doctors, nurses, beds, towels, medicines, etc. It is all free, the government pays for it.
The boy grows and goes to school. Elementary School: Building, books, desks, tables, chairs, doors, blackboards, erasers, teachers, assistants, administrative staff, all paid for by the government.
Secondary school the same, building, books, water, electricity, professors, administrative staff. All free, paid by the government.
High School the same, building, books, professors, administrative staff, paid for by the government.
University, UNAM or any other state university, highly subsidize and pay only a few pesos per semester. The rest is covered by the government.
Graduated, now to work. Infonavit: a soft credit for a house, the governments still helps, no problem. IMSS the same, pay a little and the rest is covered by the government. Want to get a free piece of land, just get together with some friends and go invade a land somewhere, no problem, the government will help you get it legally after a few years. It will be free.
But the problem is the government can't take care of everybody, there isn't enough money there to support everybody.
And what about you? What are you going to do for Mexico? What will your contribution be besides extending your hand to receive a little miserable help? Many people asked themselves the same question, many people opened their own little business with their hands and hard work, others left in search of better opportunities elsewhere.
This paternalistical system does not work, it only creates underachievers, poor miserable people waiting for the government to come and give them education, jobs, land, everything. Many people in north Mexico dislike this way of life, we have built our own hospitals and universities and industries and we wait for none to give us anything, what we want is a good and responsible management of the economy and an independent judicial system, and institutions like IFE, to be respected and honored by everybody, without exceptions.

Maya0,

Its illegal to open the ballots, the PRD ITSELF created the law that prohibits it, if the PRD cannot even respect the laws they themselves create, why should i believe anything they say about vote fraud?

Your arguments are ridiculous.

Maya, as you have mentioned that those of us who support the PAN are dumb, you will have to excuse me for this question, but could you explain "FECAL" to those of us who are not intellectuals? Please? Did you think that up yourself, or did someone teach it to you? Whatever it means, it sounds cute....

Also, again probably because I am not an intellectual, I do not understand why winning "the largest city and state in Mexico" has anything to do with winning the election. Did the rules change, and now Chilangos get 2 votes each? And this logic means that because a bunch of Chilangos and YOU voted for AMLO, he must have won? Interesting logic, are you a philosophy major?

It gives me hope for Mexico to read the comments of Carlos H. He voted for AMLO in good faith. No doubt he liked AMLO's expressions of sympathy for the poor and his plans to help the poor.

Now, however, he sees the ugly truth about the man he voted for and he wishes he had not done so. He says that if another election were held today, he would not vote for AMLO and probably there are hundreds of thousands of people like him.

There is hope for Mexico as long as there are reasonable people who can admit they made a mistake and take a different path.
AMLO in Los Pinos would have been a disaster for the country.

"it is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing".
From the Tragedy of Macbeth.
Shakespeare

AMLO has been only partially successful on trying to convince the public opinion about the electoral fraud. Polls indicate that only a third of the population favor a vote recount, but two thirds do not favor it. And there is more because new polls will be coming out soon and they will show how his popularity and credibility has been greatly compromised.
Even the most supporting journalists who defended and apologized AMLO during the campaign are now moving away from his radicalization. No journalist is talking about the alleged fraud, they are treating it as what it is: fraud allegations made by a candidate who lost the election. It will go away and will be remembered as an alleged fraud claimed by a loser who could not admit defeat. Just like that big lie about the Hilderbrando and cuñado gate, for as much as they talked about it, nobody remembers it today.
Mexico is changing, the generation of politicians like Lopez Obrador, Camacho Solis, Madrazo, and Monreal among others is leaving and they are doing it for good.
A young, modern and vibrant generation of politicians like Felipe Calderon, Marcelo Ebrard and others is here to stay and to set the course for the future of the country in more and ever more competitive elections. We Mexicans can only benefit from such changes and put the past and its characters behind us. long life to Felipe Calderon and Marcelo Ebrard! The new leaders of the most vibrant political forces in Mexico.

There are soooo many thinks I like to clarify:

a) Presidential support and reelection are signs of a helthy and mature democracy. Not having presidential support and no reelection are actually antidemocratic actions. I know that we have a bad history of reelections: Santa Anna, Juárez, Díaz. But that all happened in the 19th century. I think it is time to move and leave those historic stigmas behind. Oh, and show me where is it a crime for the president, the governors, the deputies and the senators to support their candidate.

b) About the IFE officials: no one left out the PRD in the election of the officials. The PRD voluntarily left the negotiation table and didn't want to cooperate. So, the show must go on and the other parties chose the officials. Period. the reasons for leaving the negotiations are known only by the PRD but using that against the IFE is just simply low.

c) The Consejo Coordinador Empresarial is formed by citizens. Citizens have the basic human right to express their political views. I hate double standards, so let's be fair. A group of entrepreneurs supported Calderón. Group Carso and Genomma Lab made AMLO's tv ads and helped him financing the campaign. They are citizens too and they have all the right to do that. But if you're going to point fingers at the CCE, please look at who's aiding your candidate in the first place.

d)So, there's a doubt that Josefina Vázquez Mota used the lists of Oportunidades in favor of Calderon. Fair enough. There's also a doubt that the PRD used the lists of the financial help of the elderly in favor of AMLO. Then again, please, drop the double standards.

e) Many people are using the whole Hildebrando thing as a proof of fraud. It may look suspicious, I admit. But, may I remind you, Saint Peje himself said in his "informative meeting" that it wasn't a cibernetic fraud after all, it was done, and I'm quoting him, "a la antigüita". So, AMLO himself has dismissed that option. Besides, the supposed Hildebrando software was used for the PREP. Big deal, the PREP isn't the official result. It exists for a quick countdown and nothing else. The final word (and not in this election, but in every single election) is the TRIFE.

I've said it a bizillion times, I'm not pro-Calderón. I'm not pro-Peje. I voted for someone else (Patricia Mercado, if you must know) But what I can not stand, and I will not tolerate is lies, corruption, and double standards. And all I've seen as the supposed proofs of this "fraud" is nothing more but lies, corruptions and double standards. How long is it going to take you people to realize that?

I must admit I voted for Felipe Calderon. I went to the polls and I cast my vote with all my confidence in our IFE volunteers and our institutions. I also admit that I wished and prayed for Felipe to win. Now I know I was right, I am so proud of myself. His comeliness and good manners, his unruffled continent as oppose to that of his opponent.
I can only feel sorry and extend my most sincere sympaties for those who regret having voted for deceit.

Algunas preguntas al aire, he escrito ya que no se desconfia de las personas que estuvieron en las casillas ya que de manera voluntaria estuvieron ahi para que votaran aproximadamente los 42 millones de personas el dia 2 de julio.
a) Pero que paso con Hildebrando dias antes de la eleccion se probo con carmen aristegui la manipulacion que se habia hecho para beneficio del candidato.
b) Perdon pero porque el IFE mando hacer mas de 1 millon de boletas ademas de las establecidas para que queria ese "colchon".
c) Que raro que en 79 casillas o mas, quien le cree ahora al IFE, esa cantidad la dio el IFE hoy 19 de julio. En esas casillas votaron mas personas que las que estaban inscritas en las listas nominales. IMPOSIBLE cuando los que sabemos JAMAS, NUNCA se pueden acabar las boletas en una casilla a menos que sean especiales pero no es el caso y sino votan todos los de la lista nominal mucho menos que voten mas de los que estan inscritos. Razones por las que no votan todas las personas incritas en una lista nominal: 1)fallecidos, 2)emigracion (pero creo en mexico no se da verdad), 3)abstencionismo.
d)Porque en algunos distritos para el conteo rapido se baja la muestra de casillas, y si se baja ese muestra en que distritos se sube. ¿porque? se bajarian en distritos con preferencias a favor de Lopez Obrador.
e)¿Porque? a la gente de las casillas no se les da calculadora para realizar el conteo en algunos distritos. Ok diran ustedes los que leen es muy facil hacer cuentas de mil boletas mas o menos, si es facil quizas para nosotros que podemos leer en ingles y algunos en ingles, pero en la casilla hubo personas de diferentes niveles de estudios, incluso unos ni sabian leer o escribir.
f)¿porque?no se informa con anticipación de las actas con anomalias que no son sumadas al PREP, sino hasta despues que el candidato AMLO lo da a conocer.
h)Porque se dan cambios al momento de capturar las actas y no coinciden con los votos en el paquete electoral. Esto solo se logro comprobar cuando algunos representantes de AMLO pidieron nuevamente el conteo de los votos.
i)Un millon y medio, 2 millones los que sean, asi fueran 100 mil personas piden que se recuenten los votos con todo esto no es necesario?... Otro 88 cuando se cae el sistema y remonta el PRI, que parecido no ese miercoles todo el dia AMLO esta a la cabeza nos vamos a dormir y remonta el PAN... Que coincidencia.
j)Y hablando de coincidencias Calderon invitado de honor siendo secretario de energia a la boda de Ugalde, y dias despues Ugalde en compañia de carlos salinas recibe una llamada de elba esther confirmando su presidencia en el IFE.
k)IFE 15 años de democracia que no sirven de nada, La DEMOCRACIA SEÑORES NO LA CREA EL IFE, sino todas esas personas que voluntariamente por miserables 200 pesos disque para comer, la hacen y los que nos presentamos a votar.
HAY QUE RESPETAR EL VOTO, que bueno que los ojos de otros paises estan observando el cochinero que es MEXICO, que no ha cambiado mucho... ¿que no se limpiaria un poco contando otra vez los votos?.
¿quien alento la violencia con spots tan mentirosos y llenos de una moral que enferma? no fue Felipe calderon y ahora quiere reconciliación ¿quien le cree a ese señor? YO NO y ahi esta mi nombre no soy ningun cobarde para esconderme en la clandestinidad

Well, I have to admit that, of the two leading candidates, won the election the one who wasn't all that bad. I'm not sure if AMLO supporters are realizing this but in a way they are confirming what the PAN spots were saying during the campaign: "AMLO is a danger to Mexico". Not because he destroyed the economy or for violent demonstrations as it was the PAN's main idea, but by destroying the creibility of out electoral institutions that have cost us, all mexicans, sweat, blood and tears to build. If some people who didn't vote for AMLO (like me) felt in a certain moment a little bit of sympathy for him, right now, with his current behavior, that same sympathy is totally gone.

I was reading that someone in here was comparing AMLO to Mr. Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Dear God! Poor Roosevelt, he must be revolving in his grave. You just can't compare Mexico current economical stabiliy to USA's economical bankruptcy of the Great Depression. Sure the New Deal worked great during that time since the government was the only entity with enough capital to get the economy in motion again. Of course, with the entire coutry being broke the only way to employ people was by giving them jobs in the contruction industry, building roads and stuff like that. But right now, in Mexico, although unemployment rates are high, a great deal of people do invest and create jobs. There are parts of the country that are on recession but there are some other regions with a great economical boost. The 2006 Mexico is so far away from the USA of the Great Depression.

JC Leal:
Two comments. You mention "MEXICO que no ha cambiado mucho". You are right, all the alquemests of the 88 fraud are back in business, Camacho Solis, Monreal, Bartlett, all of them, and they are all members or supporters of the PRD.

This is better:
"quien alento la violencia con spots tan mentirosos?". Please explain how a campaign spot "alienta la violencia"? Did the spot perchance jump up and kick a politician's car door? Did it steal a bunch of money from the GDF and go blow it in Vegas? SPOTS(???) causing violence? Boo Hoo.

WILL Someone who supports AMLO's campaign please tell us exactly what they want at this point. Because I do not get it.
1.) Do we need a recount because polling places opened late and people were prevente d from voting?
2.) Do we need a recount because "everybody in Mexico City voted for AMLO, so he must have won?"
3.) Do we do a recount just because it is "good for Mexico" and will "clear the air", never mind that this is illegal?
3A In the event that a recount is done, will AMLO expect Calderon to abide by the results if it turns the vote toward AMLO? Can Calderon expect the same from AMLO. If Calderon cannot expect the same from AMLO, why should he agree to a recount?
3B If the IFE is "corrupt", and the recount still shows the PAN winning, won't that just be more evidence of corruption? Furthermore, if the IFE is corrupt, they will, presumably, cook the recount and screw AMLO, so isn't the whole thing a waste of time?

julio cesal leal espinosa,

Nice rant. Show me hard evidence of what you're saying and I'll believe you.

Oh, and if what you meant by being "en la clandestinidad" is to give us a hard time for using nicknames, let me tell you, it is the internet and we use nicknames for security reasons. If you want you're name to be hacked or some psycho to look you up in the white pages, be my guest.

4.) Should the election be nullified because
A.) Businessmen exercised their rights as citizens to support a candidate?
B.) Fox ran spots telling the world what a great guy he is, but never mentioned either Calderon or the PAN in them?
C.) the GDF ran spots telling Mexico what great people these perredistas are, giving pensions to grandma?
D.) IFE is corrupt?
E.) Everyone is out to get AMLO?
F.) AMLO was compared to Hugito Chavez? (error, Hugito is a crook, but a much better politician.)
G.) Mexico lost to Argentina early in the world cup, thus depressing the vote?
H.) Great Right Wing Conspiracy, Mexico subsidiary?
I.) IFE cooked the books?
J.) TEPJF is corrupt also?
K.) AMLO is really God (or Jesus, Juarez, Gandhi, M L King, etc), and God cannot lose?

Supposing the election is then nullified, then what?

A.) IFE conducts a new election? IFE is corrupt, if (when) AMLO loses again, and by a bigger margin, will we repeat this whole process?

B.) Somebody other than IFE, which is impartial, conducts the election? WHO WHO WHO?

C.) Cancel elections altogether, since AMLO only wants to help the poor? Just make him president for life? Elections are a waste of money and time anyway, when everyone knows that AMLO will always win. (If he does not, of course, it is FRAUD!)

Julio,

They say that love is blind; same goes for hate. Look at what's going on in poor Oaxaca; a lose/lose situation. Just look what hate can do, then take a deep breath, count to ten & think about your family, your friends. Cool heads are much more rational, just what we need right now. Let's let the TRIFE do its work and then accept the decision like we must or else watch this place go down the tubes.

¡TRANQUIS! ¡TRANQUIS! CALMANTES MONTES

I have heard several people hear complaining about "favorable" coverage given to Calderon by the media, and they blame this on the "ley telerisa". Fine. How did the PRD deputies vote on this law?

Further, in November of last year there was an example, in Brazil, of utter media propaganda in favor of an election result. The Brazilian government pushed a referendum to totally ban handguns. (we all know the criminals and murderers would have been lining up to turn in their guns right away. sure.) EVERY TV network (and there are a lot more than two) in Brazil backed this. A "telenovela" was written in which a gun free Brazil was presented as paradise. President Lula crisscrossed the country campaigning in favor of a "yes" vote. The "NO" campaign was underfunded and disorganized.
Yet, on election day, something like 65% of Brazilians, including majorities in ALL 26 states voted "NO". All the government and media propaganda had ZERO affect. Because Brazilians were smart enough to see through the lies about this referendum.
If Brazilians are smart enough to ignore government propaganda, are the PRD supporters saying that here in Mexico we are too stupid to do this? I think not. I think people everywhere are smart enough to filter out government propaganda.

Es cierto se me olvidaba en que pais vivo, que decida el TRIFE, aunque creo seguira igual.

Solo me pondria a pensar que pasara AMLO probablemente no aceptara sino le favorece el resultado.

Que pasara con ese millon, ya no los 13 que votaron por el, Que México esta por venir?. Se calmara el pueblo como en 88, o en 2006 sera diferente, No soy de ningun partido ni PRD mucho menos PAN ni PRI.

Solo expreso lo que veo. Ok calderon gana le ponen la banda presidencial que bonito y luego... cuando quiera hacer las reformas electricas, petroleo, iva etc. En el informe, en la toma de protesta... ¿Donde estara AMLO?, Estabilidad en pocas palabras.

Ese pais dividido aguantara 6 años mas, quizas si, ¿cuantos no aguanto ya?.

The country is not divided as some people may want to put it. Is the United States divided because the difference in their presidential elections was so little? Not at all. This is how democracies work and we must all understand it and get used to it. Every time, in the United States or in Mexico and elsewhere, there is a little marginal difference between two candidates we are going to have situations where one of them will impugnate the election. That is normal and we accept whatever the Court says in the end.
What is not normal is to see a candidate blaming everyone else but himself for defeat. What is not normal and has not been so in Mexico is to blame the IFE for being one-sided and to blame the President, and the Church and the Business Community and their own Poll Station representatives of being part of the plot, of blaming the media, and blaming just about anyone else. That is not normal and should be condemned. PRD is not challenging the results of the Senator and Congress elections, except for a few impugnations, like the other parties and which are normal, but how come they don't say anything about what they won?
The PRD will suffer very much because already the mayority of the population is blaming AMLO and PRD for the post-election situation. It is not about the impugnation but about these demonstrations where you see pictures of Ugalde depicted as a criminal, where you see the hate towards the president, Felipe Calderon, Etc.
Mexican people do not hate like that, and tells me these people are a little minority manipulated by an irresponsible leader.
Whilst it is true that some 14 million people voted for AMLO, it is not true to say that all of them were PRD followers, a great part of them are already having second thoughts about who they voted for, many of them are already regretting it, many others probably support his claims and would like to see a recount but do not hate Felipe Calderon or the IFE or the President, another part of them were PRD followers who are of course in favor of the recount and may have some hurt feelings about the whole process, but out of all these people, who will be willing to take it to the streets? Only a little bunch. Very little to make a number.
Camacho Solis and Lopez Obrador and Monreal and the others at the PRD are continually repeating their threat of instability, but we know that is not going to happen.
They will have to admit defeat as it is the best thing to do in this situation and the PRD will lose very much in the next elections and they will have learned a big lesson.

Anyone see the article in El Universal where Lazaro Cardenas Batel, governor of Michoacan has to defend himself against charges that he is a "traitor" to the PRD? AMLO seems to have discovered yet another enemy.

Second interesting article, here:
http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/nacion/140848.html
where another ex PRIista (who should know) blames Fox for "violence", and identifies that known right wing ideologue, Jorge Castaneda as yet another enemy of AMLO.

These people are going to end up with an enemies list that would have made Richard Nixon proud.

AMLO won, by sheer numbers he won. Once all the ballot boxes are recounted, vote by vote, if its shown that he didnt win, then so be it. Why is that so hard to accept? Why are all these PANistas Facistas, all hung up about what a bad man AMLO is,no matter what he did during 5 years as mayor of el D.F. he could do no good. He didnt cause Mexico to fall down a cliff being head of its largest city did he? But no matter what he did, he was wrong, and he was bad. Its personal I think, maybe even racist, perhaps? How dare this dark skin indian looking man dare to want to be president of Mexico? Because sense it doesnt make. Everywhere in latin america that had recent radical changes, from right to left, from Argentina, to Venezuela, economys have gone up. That monster Hugo Chavez, has done the terrible thing of having Venezuela humm along at 7percent GPA for over 5years, same in Argentina, where that leftist monster in charge, thumbed his nose at the world bank, the IMF and for almost 6 years has also seen 7 percent growth in those years. In fact, it seems that by going against the grain, those economeys have surged ahead. While those that link themselves to more of the same, like FOX, and now FECAL, have had years of years no growth, zero. NADA So how come AMLO was a danger? Reading all of these ppl here, who want more of the same, who back FECAL because, they must benefit somehow. It will affect them to have a indio in charge of Mexico. Maybe its a sub consious thing, because these ppl really hate AMLO. Since way b4 the election, they have hated AMLO. Closet racists? Who knows, because he did well as mayor of the largest city of Mexico. He did extremly well comparing the numbers in work done, schools open etc. etc. So how was he a danger to Mexico? Nope, its a psych thing really with these ppl here, look how much hate they sprout forth from their minds when they mention AMLO, or his supporters. Yep, me thinks its a race thing, and some of them may be as dark as AMLO or more, a self hate? Who knows, but their the first to attack the idea of a total recount, vote by vote. Voto X Voto. What are they afraid of? FECAL short for Felipe Calderon, 2day comes out with white ribbons for peace. White ribbons....really now, these ppl dont know when to quit.

Jerry Bourbon:
I don't believe the media favored Felipe Calderon. Actually it was quite the oppossite, the media favored AMLO far more than Calderon or Madrazo. How many times did we AMLO with Lopez Doriga in prime-time and in very friendly talks were Lopez Doriga would actually turn the microphone to AMLO and let him speak? And these interviews usually lasted for more than 30 minutes. How many times Carmen Aristegui talked about AMLO in her tv and radio programs, and Where about Denise Mearker? And Adela Micha? Ciro Gomez-Leyva? and the list goes on and on.
I actually saw an overwhelming presence of analist and comentators in favor of AMLO.
Today, we see Carmen Aristegui, Victor Trujillo, Ciro Gomez Leyva, Raymundo Riva-palacios and many others trying to minimize the terrible errors AMLO is making everyday, they minimized when AMLO threatened Felipe's Family in front of a million people, they minimized how Felipe was attacked by a bunch of fanatics, they minimized how AMLO justified this violent act later. They minimized the Salamanca video affair. They minimized how AMLO has repeteadly declared he will not accept the veredict of the Court unless it favors him. They minimize just about everything. But if President Fox says something about "Renegados" only once, this same hypocrite journalists will repeat it and critize it a hundred times. They have an ear pegged to Felipe Calderon's statements looking for any errors he might make in his speeches. These biased journalists have a score of adjetives ready to be used against the PAN and Felipe: Intolerant, abusive, violent, racist, religious fanatic,etc. And they did it all the campaign. Now we hear this fellows from PRD cry for media coverage. As a write on this blog, Lorenzo Meyer is with Victor Trujillo, as he did all the campaign, talking against capitalism and trying desperately to lay grounds to his cocaine conspiracy theories about the Mexican right wingers. Another sorry AMLO apologist. The poor fellow has so many losts paradises. He should go back to continue writing his marvelous and very respectable first-grade elementary history books for slow-learning kids.

A clarification for everyone in this forum: if you voted for Felipe, you are not necessarily a PANista and if you voted for AMLO, you are not necessarily a PRDista. This is important because a lot of us voted for either candidate and do not belong to or identify with either of these two asphixiating political parties. Can´t we be independent voters?

A lot of the hate and intolerance that is being expressed here and on the streets (Felipe´s car being kicked, the art exhibit in support of AMLO being vandalized) is somehow involved with identifying the perpetrators with factions, i.e. PRD vs PAN, pro-AMLO vs. anti-AMLO, pro-free enterprise vs. anti-free market. Why are we having such a difficult time separating the voters from the violence perpetrators and from the personality of the candidate that we voted for? As the song would say: "Relax, don´t do it!"

My next question is: am I allowed to support a vote by vote recount without being labeled a PRDista and without being labelled a Calderon-hater? Why does supporting a recount represent such an insult for some? My best friends here, who were presidents of casillas and counted votes, say that they would not mind a recount and that they would not feel offended about their math skills if the TRIFE ordered one.

Let´s wait and see what the TRIFE says.

About maya´s self hate thesis: some middle-class people that I have talked to have admitted that they did not vote for AMLO for fear of being labeled "nacos". Others did vote for him but are afraid to come of out the closet and admit it in their social circles for the same reason. So, maya, you may have a good point here about the racism but I think it is tainted by classcism as well.

I voted for Felipe Calderon because I believe in his proposal. My vote was not anti-peje and cannot be explained in the context of AMLO being a danger to Mexico, or representing the nacos or else. That is nonsense. North Mexico has traditionaly voted PAN for many years. But I must congratulate Felipe Calderon and his campaign staff for all the work they did. They turned the situation around. AMLO had been campaigning for several years, building alliances and getting more and more popular with his class division speeches. By november last year, he was 43 percent at the voting intention polls. PAN resourced to spots portraying AMLO as a danger for Mexico. AMLO's campaign staff were so slow to react, those spots ran for months until they discovered that the spots were having an echo in the population, then they went to court and got them stopped, but it was too late. In the last weeks, PRD attacked Calderon with many spots on the Fobaproa and Hildebrando issues, hurting Calderon, but it seems they reacted too late. AMLO and PRD lost he campaign because they did not hire a professional election campaign consultor, AMLO's campaigning around the country certainly helped him, but his own mistakes and the late reaction to PAN attacks proved fatal. AMLO has made an incredible effort to overcome the defeat and is fighting back in court. His followers are getting enthusiastic when they see those massive meetings but it is a misleading effort to try to stop his partners from abandon him and to keep himself in the news. He has certainly inspired hope in many of his followers. But the new campaign motto "voto x voto" is also misleading. He has first to revert the results by a little more a quarter of a million votes in order to win, but in the recount, Felipe is also likely to get more votes. The odds are agaisnt him. Plus PAN is defending Felipe's victory at the Court, and also the IFE, they are defending the election results also because their credibility is at stake. The Court will decide on the basis of the credibility of the IFE and its results, and will demand PRD to present evidences of the fraud or of why the votes should be counted again. Contrary to what AMLO is making people believe, the Court will not investigate a possible fraud, they will expect the evidences shown from the accusser, in this case AMLO and will listen to evidences coming from the defense, PAN and IFE. It is two against one. Tough luck.

Although maya0's comments are a little disjointed, she makes several good points. The most important to me is the personal tone of the attacks against AMLO. I'm still waiting for rational criticism of his proposed program, for well thought arguments in support of the contention that, if President, he would be a danger for Mexico. Emptyboxes recurs so often to "cocaine" this and "cocaine" that, that I'm wondering about his hobbies...

Bunburina pretends to comment rational, impartially, but she forgets (or worse)mentioning critical facts:

a) We are talking here about use of advertisement paid by all taxpayers (e.g. promotion of federal government activities), in support of a candidate (TV ads). Article 28 of the General Law of Social Development forbids it. Fox government did it; it's illegal. The Supreme Court ordered the advertisement stopped. Regarding re-election. The last Presidential candidate who attempted it was shot dead, already in the 20th Century; as a matter of fact, one of the crazy ideas in the anti-AMLO campaign is his "secret" intention to get re-elected (rumor mentioned, as I recall, by Enriquito Krauze). So, good luck with your "modern" idea.

b) In November of 2003 all the PRD group in the Mexican house of representatives oppossed the composition of the General Counsel of IFE. PRI and PAN (and satellite family business PVM) quashed every attempt to have a dialogue on the proposal. No walk-outs here.

c) We are here talking again not about a citizen voicing his or her opinion, but about a civilian organization supporting a candidate, in disguise of a non-partisan vote-promotion campain. IFE ordered the ad campaign stopped, because what the Enterprise Coordinating Coucil was doing was probably illegal (see COFIPE).

d) and e) Hildebrando and the mishandling of IFE's voter's registration database. Again, these are not "cocaine" conspiracy theories. Accusations against PAN (Josefina Vazquez Mota, Hildebrando, brother-in-law of Calderon, provider of software to IFE) of putting the voters database to illegal use was so solid that it was sent by IFE to the electoral prosecutor.

If we want to accuse or disregard the accusations, why don't we have a minimum of intellectual honesty? Why don't we inform ourselves before speculation and histerics kick in?

I, like Jerry Bourbon, have wondered about all this crying by the left over "spots tan mentirosos." What was the lie in the PAN television spots?

I did not see them, but what I have heard is that there was a spot with some video of Chavez ranting, followed by some of AMLO ranting. I think they used the clip where he called Fox names. So, where was the lie?

The video just showed two demagogues in full rant and left it to the viewer to draw the comparison. The video showed AMLO insulting the president, something that did not sit well with most Mexicans. His own words and bad behavior did him in.

I also find it curious that people on the left would get so upset by a comparison with Chavez. Isn't he, after all, their darling? Don't they just get all warm and fuzzy when they see him snuggling up with the old scraggly bearded Fidel, the last remaining dictator in Latin America? Wouldn't they expect a president Lopez Obrador to open the doors even wider to communist Cuba?

But there is little need to go over this issue about the accusations that AMLO was a danger to Mexico because, as someone else noted here, in his post-election behavior he has proven that point.

Goyo, Goyo:

I thought you were a little rational. I read a great comment in one blog this morning... What would you think if I talk to your neighbors and say "Don't get close to Goyo, because he's dangerous." Would you like it? Would you approve my campaign?

Calling the President with the name of a noisy bird, in the heat of a campaign rally, is it a mortal sin? The President is an employee of the Mexicans, one of whom is AMLO; or are you going to deny him the Mexican nationality? Perhaps in the Estados Unidos Mexicanos del Norte...

What I consider a serious intellectual sin, that you and other Calderon sympathizers commit nilly willy is to make a homogenous bunch of all with progressive ideas. How do you know what I think about Hugo (by the way is Huguito, no Hugito) Chavez or Fidel Castro, without me saying? Have I ever accused you to admire Franco or pederast Marcial Maciel? I don't know who you admire; I don't speculate.

I conclude with a rethorical question. Do excercising your rights make you a "danger for Mexico"? Since when?

Pasilla-- The problem facing Mexico right now does not concern the right to challenge results. There is a legal mechanism for doing so and AMLO is exercising his right to pursue that challenge. He may even get his "vote-for-vote" recount. I am okay with all that.

The problem is that he has made accusations all over the place with no proof. He has accused ordinary citizens who worked for him, for his party, of taking bribes in order to throw the election. When evidence emerges to show that he is wrong he does not apologize, he just makes more accusations.

One day he says there was a manipulation of the computers with some algorithmn and then the next day he says it was done in the old way, implying some massive fraud whereby papers were moved about, records falsified, etc. Well, if it was the latter, there should be a good paper trail to follow. Let's see if he presents that evidence to the TRIFE.

The other reason AMLO has shown himself to be a threat to Mexico is his not very subtle suggestion that there will be violence if he does not get his way. Even after the incident where people attacked Calderon's vehicle, AMLO could not bring himself to condemn violence. He has even issued veiled threats against Calderon's family.

Now, putting aside all political differences, doesn't all this trouble you? Don't you see signs of some instability or, at least, some recklessness of character that would make this man a danger to have in Los Pinos?

In regard to his calling Fox a name, that of a noisy bird, as you say, I have no problem with that. You are right, that is part of politics. But, please consider these two points-- One, his statement did bother many Mexicans, as evidenced by his drop in the polls following that incident, and TWO, it seems strange that someone so sensitive to criticism, who complains about "negative" ads, would be so free in using colorful insults against others.

Now, in regard to your obvious pain at being lumped in with all the lefties in Mexico who seem to admire the old dictator Castro and his young prodigy Hugo (whom I have called Hugo and not Huguito), I am glad to hear that you do not accept that. I would be very happy to hear many more Mexicans on the left express the desire to form a modern leftist alternative, as has been done in Europe and other parts of Latin America. But what I see are people marching into the Zocalo for AMLO carrying communist flags and wearing Che Guevara tee-shirts. I see La Jornada and other publications and, I believe, one or two of the people writing on this blog, defending Chavez.

Since you say you do not want to be lumped in with all others on the "progressive" side, I exempt you from the question I put to those who like Chavez and support AMLO. What is so wrong with an ad that compared the two men? Let us not forget that Chavez was elected in a democratic election. He has managed to get complete control of the government and has begun to intimidate opponents through some questionable actions, but he has not turned Venezuela into a police state like Cuba.

The growth Venezuela has experienced comes from high oil prices and from a still active middle class business community, but there are good arguments to support Chavez and his social programs at home. So, again, why would the PRD reject any comparison between AMLO and Chavez?

AMLO's slogan "primero los pobres" is something Chavez could have used as well. If the PRD folks think the social programs Chavez has set up in Venezuela are so bad that they don't want to be associated with them, then what kind of programs would they favor?

But, to be scrupulous, the PAN ad did not get into policies, it compared rhetorical styles. Chavez, for whatever faults he may have, is a very intelligent, colorful and entertaining speaker. He can go on for hours and keep crowds listening to every word, much like the old guy in Havana. So why would AMLO object to the comparison? Actually, AMLO can't hold a candle to Chavez in this re