The only thing missing in this sad picture is the Atencos swinging their machetes in Reforma.

What an irresponsible bunch of thugs. What about these kids not going to school? What kind of people will bring their babies to such an event? What about these nasty people cooking in the middle of the Zocalo?
What is going on in here? Does AMLO and PRD think this bunch of scumbags represent Mexico? No way Jose! You got to be kidding us. There is no way such lack of respect for the people of Mexico City can take place.

Thousands of small business owner are losing their income. Already the hotels and tourist industry is reporting losses as high as 20 million dollars every single day these bastards remain there.

What kind of Banana Republic allows for this kind of barbaric behaviour? They should send the army and get them out of there and put Mr. Obrador and his thugs in a mad house.

I would like to ask everybody, Jerry Bourbon , pasilla,Fco,Goyo,Marco Beteta, Maya0,Goyito, Get Real, Bunburina, K. Vronna, and the others to please be respectul and do not start offending anybody. Let's show we are intelligent enough to discuss in peace.

Here, here....

I second the comments as to the unbelievably thuggish nature of the Obrador 'protests'. As a person who spends a considerable amount of time in Mexico I can only say that this is all too typical of political opposition in Mexico. Instead of reasoned debate, people grab machetes, block traffic, and impose their will over those who have nothing whatsoever with the purported cause (in this case a threatened dictatorship as best I can tell).

I agree, Lopez Obrador is on his way to deserving some serious jail time. Let's hope he gets it.

When foreigners see such an event, they smile and say "that's Mexico". It reenforces their view that Mexico is a second of third tier country with an archaic political system. Great damage to the national prestige is being done, but Obrador doesn't care: he has no international vision anyway.

Pasilla.

I'm sorry if I offended your sensitivities. I don't remember having said that I like Chucky's mother any better than the "Green child" or the Cow rat (Moo-rata). I did not defend Calderon's choice of allies. I just mentioned that this would not help the PRD's cause because of the tainted reputations of the people that they think can be their's. I just try to maintain the others in this blog informed of what I hear is going on and give my take on it.

I even agree with you that politics makes strange bed fellows. But, then again I don't think that any politician is infallible. I don't even grant that quality to the Pope on worldly issues.

Now, even the intellectuals are beginning to be excluded if they don't follow the official partyline; check this from El Universal:

"A la petición de intelectuales que les han apoyado y que ahora les exigen el retiro del plantón en Reforma, como Carlos Monsiváis, Cota Montaño aclaró que son respetables muchas opiniones y las habrán de valorar, pero están decididos a mantener la resistencia civil."

Lopez Obrador has bragged about not having much interest in the world outside Mexico. He has rarely left the country and once said that he saw no reason to go to Washington if he won the presidency. He said he would concentrate on Mexico, not foreign affairs.

Well, that all sounds nice, but the fact is Mexico is part of the world and the world is growing more interdependent every day. What he is doing now is telling the world-- "do not come here with your jobs, your investment, or your tourist dollars. This city is now under the control of people who may harm you if you try to walk down a street they have decided to block."

As Sergio Sarmiento noted in his column today, the victims of this spectacle are the people of the city, who not only have to put up with the inconvenience, the garbage, the loss of revenue and loss of work, but also have to pay for it with their tax dollars. The PRD government of the distrito federal is funding this whole venture.

I guess if you live in Mexico City and voted for the PRD, you are getting what you deserve. But it is a shame so many others are hurt by the selfish actions of this egomaniac and the fools around him.

"thugs,nasty people,scumbags,bastards." all above words where posted by emptyboxes, and then emptyboxes asks that nobody start insulting nobody please.
Well, is this not enough proof that double stardards, and down right hypocracy dominate the moral ethics of FECAL, and the PAN and their supporters? Just like now when one watches about Fidel Castro and his failing health, and seeing how some people rejoice at the death, or prospect of death of a man. Death bringing rejoice.
What sickness, who are these people to be even considered human?
Clearly the side that AMLO represents is right, because its against these kind of people that have been running Mexico into the ground, having excess on the backs of millions. This will be tolarated no longer. AMLO is the legitimate President of Mexico. Mexico needs a recount, Voto X Voto. Casilla X Casilla, Con AMLO todo, con FECAL nada ¡Viva AMLO, Viva Fidel!

This are such a good forum to express our thoughts, congratulations to all and Ceci Connolly.
What I would like to know is the why mexican press haven't spoken anything about the costs of the "megaplanton". I was watching an aerial view from Televisa (Oh My God! does that make me a Panista?) and you can see that the number of people installed in the camps are far less the number of the people that attended last Sunday, very few people are in each camp, those camps are very well organized,and the tents are brand new and definitely you can see that somebody is paying for that service, in Zocalo are not only camps but also sound systems and a stage which also have to be rented, and in Av. Juarez there is a fair with games that of course have to be rented too, Who is paying for all this??? Those things are expensive in Mexico, All those come from our taxes?, Obrador is rich?, What is the real cost of Obrador madness and who is paying for it??

Here you go again, K. Vronna. Where in the text that you transcribe it says anything about intellectuals being "excluded."? You interpret the challenge to your twisted readings as anger. Not so.

Maya0, you are right on that double standard thing.

I'm starting to feel kind of concerned about that megaplanton in Mexico City. I wonder if the Federal goverment is thinking in handling that matter later on.

I hope they are not THAT STUPID to repeat a Tlatelolco '68 Part II I'm saying this because I've been reading in other blogs about the presence of militar convoys doing a few rounds. They think Fox is bluffing and I really hope he does.

These are peaceful demonstrators who want democracy! I don't know where "thugs" came from. As far as kids being at the rallies and not in school, hellooo it's summer time, would you prefer they be working in a sweat shop. Speaking of kids I drove from Vancouver, BC to a gun show in washington state last saturday. Just out of curiosity. Every single person in the place were white males, many of them bring their young boys to play with the AK-47s and other machine guns. Which you can buy without any waiting period or restrictions. While travelling home I noticed the Pro-Iraq war people were occupying all the flyovers on the I-5. Of course they made all the children stand in the pollution all day waving American flags as cars whizzed by them.. They weren't too concerned for their childrens safety were they?

The PRD followers let themselves be fooled by what Encinas keeps saying: "We are not going to use violence to remove them, we do not believe in violence, etc. etc."

The fact is, The DF government was constitutionally elected and that gives them the power to remove by force if neccesary, people illegaly obstructing important avenues where Mexican people who need to go to work cannot pass or drive.
That is not violence or repression, that is only the simple application of the law to something that is illegal.

Only a dumb can imagine that Fox will send the army anytime.
Fox can simply remove the DF Attorney (Procurador) Mr. Batiz and Joel Ortega the Secretary of Security and President Fox can put his people there and have this people remove from the streets, they can always do their thing at the Zocalo or in a park, nobody really cares about that clown anyway.

But being as how our President Fox is such a nice guy, he ceded the right to choose the important officials to Mr. Obrador when he was the DF Governor, something he never appreciated, as it has been his attitude towards our President, same as when the Desafuero, which, in spite of all the rethoric from hypocrite and biased liers like Monsivais and Lorenzo Meyer, the desafuero was not ordered by President Fox but by the Supreme Court, which is independent from way before Fox arrived to power and which ordered the Fiscal Attorney to promote such Desafuero against Mr. Obrador for disobeying a Court Order.

So you see. This is all nonsense.

I guess these bastards know very well that Mr. Calderon has seen how they pay good will and courtesies. Mr. Calderon will appoint himself the next Procurador de Justicia of DF and the next Secretario De Seguridad and they will then apply the law and give the city back to its citizens.

This is why they are jumping. Because they know very well that Mr. Calderon is going to have a mayority in both houses and will be able to remove Marcelo or anybody if they get on the way.

Double standards is what AMLO and those thugs practice everyday.

Manesso:

The protestors do not want "democracy". They want Obredor to become President by any means. He is in accord.

The closer the hour gets the AMLO jumps and cryies. This poor fellow can stay quiet one single minute. He has to be yelling all the time like a vegetables vendor at the marketplace.

What a far difference from a man of law and order who paciently waits and goes to meetings with representatives, real representatives of our community. He and his staff offend nobody in their daily activities. He does not call his people to take to the streets even though he got more voters. And he wisely prepares the ground for the national reconciliation to come.

While this thug at the Zocalo spreads his hatred and offends and tryies to blackmail the city by saying: I will not leave until there is a full recount.

What a sad spectacle. Hasn't anybody told him that sometimes is necessary to recognize defeat?

It is the culture of the victim. Oh I am the victim of a desafuero! Oh I am the victim of a fraud! Oh I lost because of Sabritas, don't buy any! Oh I lost because of Jumex don't buy any!, Oh I lost because of Banamex, don't bank there! Oh I lost because of Wal mart, don't shop there!

What is this nonsense? When has a candidate of any party in then whole democratic world blame a whole company and try to affect the people working there just because the shareholders of the company, in the exercise of their constitutional rights, support a particular candidate?

What is this stupidity? Was he planning to destroy these companies had he won? What a destructive mentality.

I ask you fellows who support this clown: How the heck in the world is this guy going to get to be President acting like that?

Hey this is to all of you, both PAN and PRD and to all people who believe in democracy.

That Hypocrite scumbag dictator Fidel Castro who terminated all freedoms in Cuba and has dictated the life of those poor people for 50 years while He and His brother and family and good buddies have been living as kings.

Well this same scumbag Castro is starting the die. The miserable took a while, but his day is coming and all the people in Island are preparing for a beautiful day when this criminal get eaten by the worms.

He will pass the Cuban Crown to his brother, who has the right because of his royal blood, but the positive thing here is that the bastard is going to die soon.

I hope he dies as soon as possible, it will be a better world for all of us.

I am sure we all Mexicans who love democracy will agree. Or Not?

manesso-- So what the heck is your point? There are stupid people everywhere, true.

Perhaps you are late to this blog, so I will bring you up to date-- Our problem is not with Lopez O or any of his people exercising their right to challenge the vote in the tribunal or voice their opinion in the street. They have that right which everyone has everywhere in the western hemisphere with the exception of Cuba, where, with any luck, the old man may be about to exit and change may come.

Our complaint is with the lies, deception and distortions used by AMLO to denigrate Mexico's intitutions and its democracy. It is clear he had no intention of ever accepting any vote that went against him. I remember some weeks before the election hearing a Calderon advisor say that there would be trouble if Felipe failed to win by more than three or four percent. They knew even then that AMLO would challenge any close result and that he would send people to the streets.

Also-- You should recognize that there are protests and then there are disruptive acts of intimidation. The pro-Iraq war people you describe apparently violated no laws and did not impede any traffic. Whether you agree with them or not-- and I find it hard to believe they were really pro-war-- they carried out their right to protest without disrupting other people.

AMLO and his mobs are occupying the main thoroughfare in Mexico City and preventing thousands of people from working, shopping, going to the doctor, etc. That is not what I would call peaceful and lawful protest. Of course the police will do nothing because the PRD runs the city. In most other countries the police would arrest anyone disrupting traffic or blocking access to hotels, clinics, shopping centers, etc.

I heard from a gentleman today who is 90-some years old. He wanted to go to pay a bill at a store on the other side of Reforma from where he lives. The mob would not let him pass in a taxi, so he had to take a bus, which they did let through.

So here is typical lefty logic-- They will let the peseros and buses through because they are the modes of transportation used by the "people." But what about the poor taxi drivers who are losing business? Aren't they "people," too?

Again, for the second time, I would like to ask everybody, Jerry Bourbon , pasilla,Fco,Goyo,Marco Beteta, Maya0,Goyito, Get Real, Bunburina, K. Vronna, and the others to please be respectul and do not start offending anybody. Let's show we are intelligent enough to discuss in peace.

It seems to me every week AMLO makes another mistake. This new thing about blocking the Reforma and other avenues is now affecting many other people who are begining to get angry at him. Including, no doubt, many of his own supporters.

But the message is clear. He is threatening with unrest. Everytime the case avances at the Court, he makes another move.

One thing is clear to me:
His desicion to call to a permanent stay at the zocalo and on reforma is an economical measure. He does not have the money to make another huge meeting, and the summer vacations are over and he fears another meeting will bring less people, and less. In fact, I do believe the second meeting had more people than this one. This last meeting was carefully studied by several instutions and they counted less than half a million, including Reforma where they did an outstanding investigation proving there were only 360 thousand people.

So I guess two things from this. One, the money is leaving, two, the DF government cannot give too much cash to AMLO because the authority is watching through the banks and this can affect Encinas and many people in DF Government in the future when Calderon takes power. But the DF can provide support through its suppliers who can bring all the things and food needed for the Planton at the zocalo. So this was easier.

I also have my own doubts as to what AMLO really wants. I believe all these calls to Calderon are in reality a message calling him to negotiate a deal. Perhaps money or a political favor. But it does seem rather strange to see him calling on Calderon to accept a recount when he perfectly knows Calderon will never accept it. He will not play to his game. So what does he want, I guess that is the question.

Manesso, if we could buy guns with no waiting period in Mexico, I have a feeling the tlatelolco massacre and the 88 fraud would never have happened. Unfortunately the only people in Mexico allowed to have firearms are cops and criminals.

Remember, fear the government that fears your right to bear arms.

Borburina: I cannot but feel sorry about what you and many people have to go through because of what Mr. Obrador's endeavours.

Mexico City is such a beatiful place and its enduring and hard working people do not deserve to be treated in such a disrespectful manner.

I am indeed hearten by the hope that these contemptible and inexpiable sit-ins will be the lasts ones of its kind.

We cannot have this disgrace of a President.
I ask:
Where is the democrat?
Where are the Juarez Principles?
Where is the tolerance?
Where is the respect for the law and the constitution?
Where is the care for Democracy?
Where is the hope he represented?
Where is the care for the country?

Who does he think will be affected mostly in case all these situation unfolds into an economic crisis? The Rich who can save their money in foreign banks?

It will all be paid by the poorest people of our country, they will be ones who will end up paying for more debt and crisis and high interest rates and the poor blue collar workers will end up earning less for more work and paying more for less food and goods.

Today I had a little taste of hell. I had to do something important in the Polanco area and, what usually takes me 45 minutes to do, took me nearly 3 hours! 3 hours in the heat, hungry and thirsty, without peeing, locked in my car, stuck in traffic! All of course, due to AMLO's megaplantón. The saddest part of all is the disrespect AMLO is treating his supporters. He is making this poor people to stay away from home, he makes them live in the streets, do their necessities in the bushes of Reforma (it does smell bad), then cook in the benches nearby (very higienic) all for a very dubious cause. Primero los pobres... yeah right. If one thing was clear for me today is that he doesn't give a rat's ass about them; for him they are just "carne the cañón". I understand them being mad since their candidate lost. But I don't think they believe there was a fraud; they want to believe that it happened which is a very different thing from reality. And he's taking advantage of that and using them for his greed, for his egotitiscal purposes.

So yeah, thanks AMLO for the Ciudad de la Esperanza.

maya0 - I don't think that posting "viva Fidel" is helping you in any way to support your arguments. Fidel Castro was definetely a hero when he brought Batista down. Every single cuban thought of it. Some good family friends from Cuba, upper middle class, gave my parents a huge painting depicting Mr. Castro as a hero and they couldn't stop thanking them for throwing Batista out. Three years later they fled the country, without a cent, to Miami. If only Fidel Castro had stayed in power two or three years and avoid becoming one of the worst dictators of the 20th century... Fidel Castro is at the same level of Hitler, Mussolini, Stalin, Trujillo. He's been worse than Fulgencia Batista, the man he defeated. Cuba has the saddest history.

I, for one, don't think anybody is listening to each other any more, why continue pushing the same points over and over? Having said that there are two questions I belive have not been answered by the AMLO supporters:

-As I asked in the previous blog entry's comments: why, if the PRD is not looking for annulment, are they looking to open more than 20% of the electoral packages? This is something that practically gurantees anullment, per the law.

-Why is the PRD not alleging massive fraud on the Senate and Congress vote, which was made under the exact same conditions? They seem pretty content with THAT.

At this point all this looks like a mute point, as the court, which has until August 3 to deal with the Congress and Senate election challenges, has already expressed opinions against a total recount in the decisions that have already been handed down. AMLO has lost and he knows it, the type of struggle he's conducting demonstrates this as he's burning any and all bridges, trying to debilitate all institutions involved, from the President to international observers. He'd be undermining his own ability to govern.

The PRD has lost the vote by vote war, but we still have to look at the vote tally after the successfully challenged polling stations are recounted. I believe they will still be behind after those recounts.

BTW, does Vegas has odds on a recount? I bet they're some long odds.

P.S. Does anybody else detect a hint of preference to AMLO by Ms. Connolly?

OK, So do you fellows remember how Camacho Solis went to Washington to allegedly gather international support. Well he is back and I have been reading the WPost, NYT, WS and other international and influential newspapers and to no avail. Nothing.

So what was Camacho doing all the way over there?

I believe he was negotiating something with the PAN.

-Why is the PRD not alleging massive fraud on the Senate and Congress vote, which was made under the exact same conditions? They seem pretty content with THAT.

That's exaclty what I've been asking myself. If there was a fraud in the presidential election the logical thing would be that it also happened in the Congress voting too. They happened the same day, people voted for president and Congress at the same time. Same thing with the mayor of the DF. It happened at the same time. It would be really cynical for them to say that the only place where the fraud didn't happen was the DF because (guess what) it is ruled by the PRD.

Logic tells me that if the PAN won more seats in the Congress than any other party, then it is pretty logical that they might have cleanly won the presidential election. The PRD seems to be overlooking that since they have just become the second political power in congress for the firts time and they don't want to jeopardize that. Quite convenient not to complain on what you're winning right?

I think the left is already breaking up, hope more people realize about the insanity of Obrador

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/366098.html

Monsivais himself talking about "insensatez"

bunburina:
"Logic tells me that if the PAN won more seats in the Congress than any other party, then it is pretty logical that they might have cleanly won the presidential election."

And there was much difference there with PAN getting 206 and PRD 160 or less.

But PRD claims to have won 16 electoral districts.
AMLO's indifference to the Northern regions of the country, he berely visited these states and their lack of party infrastructure these almost erased him from these districts.

This was due to the lack of vision of AMLO, he wanted to get huge meetings and that only happened in the DF and the south east states but in the north and some of the central regions his meeting were too small and he did not want to be seen in small meetigns.

Felipe Calderon was campaigning heavily in the south and his meetings looked very lonely but he was doing the right thing, he was campaigning most where AMLO's popularity was higher.

God! How much I'm enjoying all this disjointed, futile chattering. emptyboxes should give a try to science fiction writing; he's so good at wild speculation. And bunburina may want to write on alternative, new age philosophy, with that so peculiar "logic" of hers...

Keept at it, fellows, while reality passes you by.

I was re-reading some of the amazing nonsense; I chose as an example the following:

"Because they know very well that Mr. Calderon is going to have a mayority in both houses and will be able to remove Marcelo or anybody if they get on the way..."

I hope, emptyboxes, that this is one of those that you call "cocaine ideas," and not true PAN plans. Marcelo (Ebrard, I guess) was democratically elected by Mexico City voters. Can you please explain to me how Calderon is going to remove him if "he gets on the way?" Otherwise, I have the right to assume that AMLO was on the way of Calderon's appointment to the Presidency, and PAN has done averything possible, legal or illegal, "to remove him." Is this what you mean?

And bunburina, have you heard about divided voting? Mexico is not a parlamentary democracy, in which the party with the majority in Congress appoints a Prime Minister. People can vote for one party for president and for a completely different party for other offices. There are several other reasons, among them some very practical ones, which may explain why PRD is not contesting other results.

Nobody has come up with the estatute or jurisprudence that indicates that the opening of above 20% of the electoral packages is an automatic cause for election annulment. What I believe is cause of annulment is gross irregularities, NOT THE PROPORTION OR NUMBER OF PACKAGES OPEN. But again, I'm more than willing to be shown wrong, if somebody takes the time to find out, instead of speculating.

Wow, this is the second time I read this column and it feels as if Miss Conolly is a true AMLO fan. I am really surprised to see this prestigious newspaper allowing her to be the least objective as possible. Please read other columns in different Mexican newspapers so you can have a much clearer pespective of what is hapenning.

Funny, Lunatico: is a piece of writing "objective," only if it matches the pre-conceived view of the facts that the reader has? The post we are commenting on looks pretty objective to me; Ceci has put things in perspective: a city of the size of Mexico DF is not "under siege" because 10 km of a boulevard are blocked. Is this disruptive? You bet. But democracy can be messy sometimes. Smart negotiations should be the only way out of the problem.

The Great Tenochtitlan Commune of 2006 is a pale immitation of the Paris Commune of 1871, though the delusional AMLO fancies himself in that mold. I told people in this blog this would happen, and it did. A Tammany Hall machinery run by the PRD in the capital claims to speak for all Mexicans, RIDICULOUS. The chilangos had it comming for voting for AMLO. They deserve their chaos. Starve the damned beast, move the federal government to another place, and let the navel-gazing Tenochtitlan Comune rot in its own urban stew.

Pasilla: You are right

Calderon lost and he and his thuggish right-wingers know that very well.

That is why they are acting to desperately calling of their PAN fanatics and lunatics to do all kinds of cracy things. Felipe Calderon has repeteadly told us that his desperate and cocaine actions to get the presidency were not going to affect the community.
But he is a big lier and we all know. All his right-wing fanatics are now disrupting and affecting our community. That is why people and memebers of our community, business leaders, taxi drivers, even the church and important Mexican Intellectuals are all asking Mr. Calderon to stop his fanatics and brain-washed right-wing followers from doing all these stupid things. Yes, they are free to demonstrate their right-wing aspirations of power and to try to impose their religious and stupid free-market beliefs, but as long as they do it pacifically and without affecting the normal life of the people of Mexico City, who by the way most of the people did not vote for Felipe Calderon, or better, Fecal.

Moreover, the Panistas and this thug Fecal aren't listening either to the international press that has condemned Felipe Calderon's irresponsible attitudes and his resistance to recognize the results that clearly favored Mr. Obrador.

But we know the DF government will act responsibly and obligate this stupid fanatical Panistas and Felipistas righ wingers to do their protests and install their tents on parks and to free the Paseo de la Reforma and other important avenues blocked by these underachievers, who are being manipulated by Felipe irresponsibly and by Televisa and other media networks who are playing the game of the extreme right of our country.

I sincerely believe this is ridiculous, AMLO won and there is no doubt about it, he has the right numbers and he will show them at the right time and on the right media network. Yet he is acting with deep understanding of this critical situation and patience and honor and most important, with high responsibility. Now, that is a real President and not that scumbag of Calderon who does not stop his campaign of lies and continues manipulating his people and taking them to the streets and invading the zocale and creating a mess in the city.

And furthermore Mr. Calderon is throwing away all his political capital and compromising the future aspirations of his party. This only comes to show that all the PRD always said about this man was true.

"I told people in this blog this would happen..."

What, exactly, did you tell us was going to happen? Truly, Gabriel, without epithets or hysterics, what is really happening?

Thanks to Cecil Connolly for an excellent review of the ongoing activities, working hard to gather accurate facts and diverse opinions.

I also hope that these brave and courageous democracy activists in Mexico prove a valuable model for those of us here in the United States, who have mainly been silent while the people sent to manager our elections have been Republican partisan hacks (at best, some allege criminals at worst) with no regard whatsoever to fair voting procedures or, more importantly, the appearance of unchallengeably clean elections.

The small inconviences that a few are suffering because of the mega planton. Its only for a couple more weeks, nothing lasts forever. Think of it as nothing more than some construction project and adjust your life around it. Its not every street in Mexico City thats affected. So be a adult and adjust, it wont be there forever. Now about Fidel, well, Cuba is at war with the USA for what? almost 50years? How life would have been diffrent had no embargo been put in place, no bay of pigs, no attempts on Fidels life, no bombing in Cuba or of its airlines. Castro is the military solution for any USA invasion, thats why hes lasted so long. The USA is proven a paper tiger time and time again from vietnam to iraq. Since Cuba is free from USA domination, its seen as a threat to the USA hemonagey in Latin America. So if Castro took actions that arent popular, look to the USA for the blame. Just look at the USA and see who is behind Felipe Calderon, Fox, Zeddillo, Salinas, etc. etc. All educated at the top schools of the USA for the ultimate benefit of the USA. This is what makes AMLO so important for Mexican history, hes independent of the USA, he owes them nothing. That is why hes seen as such a threat to the USA and their benefactors, like all these PANistas who post here. So on with the Mega Plantones, and whatever else will be tought up to put the whole world on notice that things are not going to stay the same as always, that a real Mexican is going to take power in Mexico, AMLO the legitimate president of Mexico. Voto X Voto, Casilla X Casilla
Con AMLO todo, con FECAL nada

pasilla-- "democracy is messy" Yes, but blocking streets is not what comes to my mind when I hear the word democracy. No one is against AMLO's legal challenges or even his speaking out at rallies, but we are against his attempts to undermine institutions like the IFE without sufficient evidence of wrongdoing and his use of disruptive tactics to get his way.

In any case, there are now clear signs that his strategy is starting to unravel. The Monsivais comments are an indication that many people around AMLO are starting to have second thoughts. As the anger builds in DF, the PRD leaders are going to have to start weighing what they may owe to AMLO for his leadership in this election, drawing many people to the polls and substantially increasing the party's presence in Congress against what they stand to lose if they let him go on with this futile rant.

In the end, AMLO will be left alone down in the Zocalo, sitting in a tent with his inner circle, while the rest of the world moves on.

Pasilla,

I agree with you that people have a right to dissent. But, I thought that pacific civil resistance was the way that the weak confronted a powerful government to correct unjust or illegitimate actions. It has been seen as a method for the victims of abuse to gain some victories because they have the backing of ethical and historical reason.

My main objection to the current situation is that it contradicts the essence of civil resistance. It is obvious that the DF Government is collaborating with the people that decided to block the streets.
This means that instead of a legitimate fight of the weak against the unjust or illegitimate actions of a powerful government, we have a crude fight between two powerful adversaries.

With this blockade the PRD, Lopez Obrador and Government of the DF stop being victims and become executioners because they violate the rights of a defenseless population.

Goyo:

You have been predicting doom since one month ago. Ain't happened. Let's wait and see. I'm not sure what you understand by democracy, but in my view in a of democratic society public institutions are not "sacred." They are challenged all the time, because they are constituted by flawed humans, as we all are. The plaintiff in a court of law presents evidence; if it doesn't hold water, it's rejected, and sentence is dictated. Period. He or she has the right to appeal veredicts of lower courts. This is called due process, and in my book is also a critical element of democracy. What does your book say about the right of people to dissent? As I said before, the blocking of streets is inconvenient, but the solution to this problem is negotiation, not violence. Or are you going to demand the "strong hand" so cherrished by neo-PAN politicians? And I make this distinction, because inconvenience was justified when now President Fox blocked highways, or an airport, or when old guard PAN memebers blocked in Chihuahua the international bridges.

Lunatico:

Reforma, Washington Post, Arizona Republic, El Universal (and the Miami Herald), LA Times, and Houston Chronicle... Ceci uses all these sources, and provides the links. With all due respect... what the heck are you talking about?

Greg:

I don't have a full recollection, but I believe the blocking of the international bridges happened back when Don Luis H Alvarez governed Ciudad Juarez, in protest for the hijacking, by the Federal Government, of monies destined to Juarez; some PAN follower can correct me if I'm wrong...

Goyo:

"Also, back when the PAN carried out such actions, there was a real justification..."

PRD justification is not "real" because you disagree with their claims?

"You will see, in the coming days, how rats start abandoning his ship..."

My great-grandfather was a member of Porfiro Diaz's rural police. One day, the imminent End of the World was announced; it would happen at midnight. My great-grandmother decided to take my grandmother and her other children to a nearby park to watch the event. She announced to my half-sleep great-grandfather that it was time to go. He, having seen so many nasty things in his lifetime, answered: "Go ahead, you tell my about it when you get back," and went back to sleep...

Well, Goyo: you tell me about it when it happen...

The most worried people in Mexico had better be the leaders of PRD right now - if they look ahead to future elections. Obrador is doing a wonderful job of decreasing popular support for his party. Every day that he inflicts inconvenience on Mexico City, thousands more of his margin supporters are flipping loyalties. If the election were held again tomorrow, I wonder what the new results would be?

Pasilla:

When did PAN block the bridges in CD. Juarez? Are you sure you aren't thinking of the old CDP party and the Zapatistas?

Pasilla, what I am saying is that people should read news from different sources, sources where different perspectives are offered, something I did not perceive reading this column. Probably that would do you some good...

Pasilla-- Yes--due process! That is what is taking place now in the tribunal.

You wrote: "The plaintiff in a court of law presents evidence; if it doesn't hold water, it's rejected, and sentence is dictated. Period."

Perhaps you should send that to AMLO, because he thinks the "period" should be followed by "and take to the streets and raise hell if the verdict is not to my liking."

Of course, AMLO did not even wait for due process, he started his blockades before the tribunal even had a chance to sit down and calmly review the evidence.

As for Fox and whatever the PAN did way back when-- First of all, I am not here to defend Fox or the PAN. There are probably a lot of areas where I would disagree with them. I supported Calderon because he was the more reasonable and forward-looking candidate. I did not initially like him and there are still some things about his personality that irritate me, but I think he was the better choice. The same goes for Fox in 2000.

Also, back when the PAN carried out such actions, there was a real justification. At that time the PRI held absolute power-- "the perfect dictatorship" as Mario Vargas Llosa put it. Today the situation is completely different. Had there been no tribunal to which AMLO could appeal, or had the government refused to hear his complaints, then he would have been justified in carrying out protests and maybe even been justified in blocking streets.

You will see, in the coming days, how rats start abandoning his ship.

Funny. My last comment appears in the queue higher than the comments I'm talking about. I have started to read minds...

Now Pablo Gomez have given another threat, "If Fox doesn't like our demonstrations he can bring the army in", that make clear who really would like things turn violent, Violence will legitimate PRD aspirations, they dream to be national heroes stopping a new Tlaltelolco, portraying themselves as victims, very good apprentices of Obrador.

Provocateurs

That is what AMLO and his people are. They have been calling on Felipe Calderon every single day to agree to a vote recount. AMLO has been calling the President names so that he responds.

And now the blockings. And the DF is not doing anything of course, waiting for the Federal Government to do it instead.

Pablo Gomez, that hypocrite frustrated congressman, is challenging President Fox to send the Federal Police to take care of the blockade of Paseo de la Reforma.

How imbecile AMLO and his PRD people are. The Reforma blockade is the best thing ever happened to PAN and Felipe Calderon and President Fox in a long time.

These destructive and annoying actions from AMLO only legitimate Presidents Fox intervention in the electoral process to favor Felipe Calderon. The people understand now how correct the President acted by supporting Felipe Calderon. Another problem is that the people start are only talking about the blockade and not about AMLO demands of vote by vote, that comes in second place in the chat. The people can also compare AMLO's actions and threats and offenses (yesterday he said Fox suffers amnesia, today something else) versus Felipe Calderon's messages of prudence and patience and hope and reconciliation.
The Federal Government is also pleased to see that DF Government and AMLO are exposing themselves. First AMLO orders the blockade of Reforma, second Encinas allows it, Third the people get angry at Encinas and his DF government for not acting agaisnt AMLO. People are not even getting angry at AMLO, they know the guy is crazy.

Already there were polls taken last week showing a huge drop in AMLO's popularity and an increase in Felipe's. I can wait to see the new ones after this stupid blockade.

Go on AMLO! Don't stop your blockade. Do not let those Panistas convince you of lifting it. Come on!.

Hot of the presses

Amagan con cerrar puentes fronterizos
Buscan presionar al Trife para que cuente voto por voto

Matamoros, México (2 agosto 2006).- El movimiento nacional por la democracia que apoya las movilizaciones postelectorales de la coalición por El Bien de Todos y a su candidato Andrés Manuel López Obrador, amenazó con tomar este viernes los puentes internacionales de Reynosa y Matamoros.

En conferencia de prensa, Jorge de la Rosa, coordinador de la agrupación en Tamaulipas, dijo que con la medida se busca presionar al Tribunal Federal Electoral para que se cuente voto por voto y casilla por casilla esta misma semana y que dé un fallo antes del 6 de septiembre.

"Sabemos que estamos violando la Ley al bloquear una vía federal de comunicación, pero más delito está cometiendo el Gobierno al permitir el megafraude en la elección del 2 de julio", señaló.

En Reynosa se tiene previsto bloquear la vialidad por dos horas o más del puente Benito Juárez, mejor conocido como Reynosa-Hidalgo, mientras que en Matamoros anunció el cierre de la circulación en ambos sentidos del Puente Puerta México, el cual registra la mayor influencia vehicular.

"Lamentamos que se vean personas afectadas, pero parece ser que estas medidas resultan ser el único recurso aceptable para que se haga justicia", precisó.

Pasillo:

The Cd. Juarez municipal government threatened at one time to put up their own toll booths on the bridges to, in effect, double the fee for crossing. It was pretty tongue-in-cheek and they never took any action. That may be what you're thinking about.

The defunct CDP blocked a couple of the bridges sporadically back in the 90's and I think the Zapatista's did so once also, but never for more than a couple hours at a time and never more than one bridge. With all the traffic crossing those bridges, such acts are widely unpopular.

The Zapatistas actually got creative once. They took over the Telmex offices in Chihuahua and put a donkey in the lobby!

Pasilla-- I think we are narrowing in on where exactly we disagree. The PRD is not justified in taking the disruptive actions it has taken because there is a legal mechanism open to the party and its candidate. The tribunal has not even ruled yet, so what justification is there for blocking roads?

Just imagine how many people could die as a result of this activity. If someone is on the way to the hospital in an emergency and they cannot get there for three hours because of the traffic jam caused by the road blocks, who is to blame? Not the tribunal, they are following the law and deliberating. Not Felipe Calderon, all he is doing is waiting for the tribunal decision and going about his business in the meantime.

Senor Encinas would be to blame for not enforcing the laws. President Fox would also be to blame for not taking action to prevent lawlessness, even if he would be accused of repression and federal interference in a DF matter. But the man who would be mostly to blame is Lopez Obrador.

Today we read how Fidel Castro is delegatign his dictatorial powers to his brother, as though Cuba were some kind of kingdom and the Castro Family were the Royal Family with governing rights passed on by the blood.

For all the talk about Cuba, the fact is that graduated Cuban engineers are today working as prostitutes in the Havanna Bars. When you get out of the airport, teenagers, mostly girls quickly approach you to offer you their services, it is sad.

This is a picture of what could have happened to us by putting the wrong person in power in our country.

AMLO has got some psicological problems. He does not recognize authority but his own will and that is a real danger.

He will be remember in history as the very example of what Mexico does not deserve.

emptyboxes I am your father:

Yes of course President Fox intervened. As Encinas did in favor of AMLO and Marcelo "Chucky" Ebrard, I have never denied it and you and Pasilla will thank Fox when this is all over and AMLO ends in a mental hospital.

But in the light of what is happening now, people do not mind Fox supporting Calderon at all. Quite the oppossite, the people, specially those in DF who are now regretting their stupid choice and are asking whether is possible to change their mind.

--- These destructive and annoying actions from AMLO only legitimate Presidents Fox intervention in the electoral process to favor Felipe Calderon

Here we go again boy, so you aknowledge that it was ok for Fox put his dirty tricks in action only to avoid AML to win this election. So how in the world is this a fair democracy then?

What the heck is inside that head of yours? I don't longer know you. Your are a total disgrace to our filthy rich family.

Dad

I am very impressed of reading the remarkable viewpoints of people participating in this blog. However, I do not see any one really concerned with the possibility of violent social unrest. I am deeply worried with social breakdown, because it erases everybodys gains in every aspect of life, such as wellbeing, job, money, family and future. Mexico is a society founded in disparity from its very beginning, the winners over the loosers, the whiter skin over de darker, the rich over the poor, the powerful over the subject. The real danger is the spark of this electoral event in the highly explosive fabrics of history.

Oldtimer-- You are right. Mexico has all the volatile elements for class warfare and bloodshed. Most sensible people therefore favor an orderly society of law rather than the rabble in the streets. What AMLO is doing is playing with fire. My impression is that he would rather see the whole country in flames than admit to his own mistakes and the fact that he lost.

His actions of recent days have made it impossible for him to ever run again with any credibility and if he were to become president he would have a hard time getting anything done since he has gone out of his way to offend and alienate almost every important sector.

Let's hope some of the smarter people around him take control soon and put an end to this nonsense.

So now PAN is having a pic nic. And what was supposed to promote the Vote by Vote thingy, turned out becoming complaints from all the community, even from those not affected by the blocking of Reforma.

The discussion is about Encinas. About an illegal and unpopular blockade and about a man who apparently takes all desicions himself and does not consult with the other people in his party at all.

Even scumbags like Monsivais and other lame mediocre apologists of his lies and blackmail, even them are now "politely asking" for none of them dares to raise their voice to strongly condemn what is clearly an offense to Mexico City and its people.
Of course this not an offense for cocaine people like the morons at La Jornada, specially that mediocre writer Julio Hernandez who is, himself, an offense to any intelligent and reasonable citizen of this country.

I don't think that there is going to be violence, I am not AMLO supporter, I don't like him, but I have gone to the camps in Reforma, just to see, what I could saw was that the people are calm, they are not destroying the pavement as some newspapers say, there are children there and lots of "acarreados" from states, but at least none who I can define as violent, there is a lot of verbal violence among politicians more that among people, I think that AMLO is also playing to scare people, specially politicians and of course the Tribunal Judges are his targets, people on the camps are just poor innocent people who are used as cannon meat and pawns.

Mexicans are too machos, that means they bluff a lot but never go to the end, maybe politicians would like to have violence, but few people will follow them that way.

Interesting questions. If AMLO had "won" by .6%, and the PAN was alleging fraud, and set up tent cities on Reforma, would Encinas and the GDF tolerate this? Or would the granaderos move in and remove them forthwith?

If AMLO gets annointed president by the TEPJF (doubtful, but nothing is impossible), and, in a year, unhappy citizens are camping on Reforma, will AMLO leave them in peace, to disrupt the life of the DF, or will they be transformed into a "conspiracy" against AMLO, and removed?

Just wondering....

It would seem to me that congress would has the legal right to declare the "disappearance" of government in the DF. (This is what the maestros want them to do in Oaxaca, to get rid of Murat's puppet.) Since, AMLO himself promoted regulations prohibiting street blocking, and the government is obviously not enforcing the law, for political grounds, it is not governing. If this continues much longer, look for Encinas in an unemployment line.

HEHE! You read it from me first, this just appeared in El Universal

Alistan recurso para desaparición de poderes en el DF

Preparan organizaciones civiles el documento para presentarlo en el Congreso de la Unión a fin de remover al jefe de Gobierno y el secretario de Seguridad Pública capitalino

Jorge Octavio Ochoa
El Universal
Ciudad de México
Miércoles 2 de agosto de 2006
15:47 Dirigentes de organizaciones civiles preparan un argumento jurídico (que presentarán esta semana) para que la Comisión Permanente del Congreso de la Unión declare la desaparición de poderes en el Distrito Federal por violaciones a los artículos 73 y 74 de la Constitución.

También estudian la posibilidad de pedir al presidente Fox que ejerza su facultad para remover al jefe de la Policía y designar otro con el fin de que éste instruya el desalojo de los manifestantes que bloquean avenida Reforma, entre otras vialidades.

También advierten tener indicios de que el Gobierno del Distrito Federal está patrocinando con recursos y alimentos, las movilizaciones de la coalición Por el Bien de Todos, amén de que hay evidencias del robo de luz directamente del alumbrado público.

Just watching the news about the hailstorm and downpour in DF, looks serious. What I didn't see was anything about how the people in the camps made out, has anyone seen anything yet?

The reason for staying in the camps might have been the cost factor; it takes a lot of dough to payroll the marches.

STATISTICIAN: BENFORD'S LAW ANALYSIS OF MEXICAN VOTE RESULTS SUGGESTS RECOUNT NEEDED

First, allow me to apologize for my error above and thank Ceci (and not "Cecil" as I incorrectly typed) for the review.

Walter R. Mebane, Jr., political scientist and scholar in the application of statistical methods to political behavior, has performed a statistical test to the published IFE results and concluded that a recount is likely needed, though of course he is only concluding that the election results have deviated too much from an expected distribution than desirable, and cannot conclude why.

In a paper prepared for 23rd Annual Summer Meeting of the Society for Political Methodology, July 20-22, 2006 he studies election results from Florida in 2004 and from Mexico in 2006.

Below: the address for the Adobe PDF version of the paper:
http://polmeth.wustl.edu/retrieve.php?id=620

Mebane employs a statistical analysis based on Benford's law, which has to do with the observation that in looking to large samples (such as voting or census data), there is actually a predictable distribution of how often the digits (i.e., 0-9) should appear in a certain position (in Mebane's analysis, the 2nd digit from the left), and that if the digits appear to skew very far from the expected distribution, then there may be a problem, such as errors or some type of fraud ('fraud' may include cases in which data is made up or manipulated for other reasons than aiming at a desired result, i.e., no one ever originally gathered the data and they're making it up).

From Introduction:
"In this paper I study a statistical method intended to help detect election fraud. Other methods, using regression- based techniques for outlier detection, have previously been proposed to help detect election anomalies... The method described here is distinctive in that it does not require that we have covariates to which we may reasonably assume the votes are related across political jurisdictions. The method is based on tests of the distribution of the digits in reported vote counts, so all that is needed are the vote counts themselves. Being based on so little information, the method cannot in itself diagnose whether an anomaly it may flag is a consequence of fraud or of some other kind of irregularity. But, as I show, some patterns of fraud will cause the method to trigger. So the method is best understood as an indicator for places where investigations that use other kinds of information -- for instance, audits of election administration records and manual ballot recounts -- might best be targeted."

He concludes that there is enough departure from the expected model at his level of analysis to warrant a manual recount, whether of a sample or, of course, a complete recount.

From Body:
"The 2BL {2nd digit Benford's Law} test results for secciones certainly suggest there are problems with the 2006 presidential vote counts in many Mexican states, although probably not in most of them. More refined analysis is needed to reach sharper conclusions, but the general impression is that more intensive investigation of the election results is in order. That might include doing a manual recount of many -- perhaps all -- of the individual ballots. A cost efficient method may be to begin by recounting a random sample of the ballots -- all the ballots in a sample of secciones -- where the probability that a seccion is selected for recounting is greater in places where the 2BL test results are worse. For such an exercise it may be reasonable to conduct 2BL tests for secciones collected into sets that correspond to the legislative districts they are part of, with sampling for purposes of initial recounting done at the level of districts. Perhaps a two-stage sampling plan could be used, with districts selected at the first stage (weighted by the 2BL test results) and secciones within each district selected at the second stage. If such an initial sampling did identify problems with the vote tabulations, then the case for a comprehensive manual recount would become extremely strong."

Now, Mebane is NOT saying that there is any evidence that the deviation favors one or another party -- in fact a recount may very well favor Calderon, but since manual recounts are a standard tool in democracies, this is no radical recommendation.

To RC: as to predictions of what may happen after a hypothetical recount, I agree that if a recount favors Calderon then it is possible that there will be further activism by AMLO, but I don't think it will be possible to demand annulment because typically the TEPJF in the same ruling will rule out annulment. (And even if there is an appeal to the Supreme Court, I'm sure they will quickly back any decision by the TEPJF.)

The same question should be posed to the right: if a vote recount favors AMLO, what would they do?

I think both (or more correctly, all) sides should think very seriously about the next stages of their activism no matter what the results are -- for example, let's say that every avenue ends up indicating that AMLO truly lost the election. The right wing and uppermost classes often believe that the only possible outlet for the grassroots activism so far led by AMLO is "thuggery" and violence. But a wise person, which I hope AMLO either is or aspires to be, might think very seriously upon the question of what positive forces such an energetic grassroots left / liberal mobilization might yield. It's not the case that every time that hundreds of thousands or millions of people turn out, that these are merely brainless villagers coming with torches to burn down the castles. Democracy doesn't stop with the filling of official positions: that's where it begins.

Finally, the technical point is absolutely appreciated: a statistical irregularity does not in any way suggest that a recount would change the results.

What a complete, thorough, open, and observed recount would *definitely* do -- in my view -- would be to address the feeling of distrust which has clearly been expressed by many people. And I believe such a recount would help increase trust not just in the results themselves, but in the Mexican institutions involved; yielding a feeling that popular concerns have been listened to and appropriately considered.

Walter R. Mebane has done a number of reports that "prove", for example, that there was fraud in Ohio in 2004, reports bought and paid for by the Democratic Party. There is no law against this, of course, but no mainstream researcher has backed up his claims. Someone who is pro-democrat in the US is probably pro-PRD in Mexico. So, his report is to be taken with a grain of salt.
"There are lies, dam lies and statistics."

El Cid:

I'm not opposed to a complete recount per se although I suspect AMLO may try to use the inevitable discrepancies to then demand anulment. However, don't put too much faith in statistical studies the suggest irregularities. Some dimwit academic ran a study a the supposedly "proved" anomolous results in the 2004 Presidential election in that New Hampshire, so Green Party candidate Ralph Nader petitioned for a recount and it verified the original results.

I have never seen such complicity between a government and his own party eversince the worst times of the PRI, but they weren't as insolent as Encinas is.

This is ridiculous, in their mind they feel they are governing only for those who voted for them and the rest are also their political enemies.

I have seen this same mediocre mentality before when during the problems between Hugo Chavez and President Fox, some journalist asked L. Cota, the president of PRD, whether he felt offended as many Mexicans did and to the shock of the great Mayority of Mexicans he replied: No, I do not feel offended, Chavez didn't offend me, he offended Fox and Fox is not my President.

This is the kind of tribal and dogmatic mentality of the Mexican left where they are suppose to be so intellectuals and end up people like AMLO, Marcelo Ebrard, Camacho Solis and the other expriistas hungry for the power they never got when PRI was governing.

To TG:

Wow, do you even care that you just accused a real scholar of using unreliable and ethically questionable data?

No, apparently not. Because, "as you can see", whether or not the PRD ever contacted or spoke with Dr. Mebane, read the following:

From Mebane's Paper, page 20, Footnote 5:

"5. I downloaded official vote count data from the website of the Instituto Federal Electoral (IFE),
http://www.ife.org.mx/, on July 13, 2006."

And what did you say about Mebane's sourcing?

"As you can see, Mr. Mebane's data was provided by the PRD. This was done after Mitofsky declined to participate."

I respectfully request that you apologize for making (perhaps an unintentionally) disrespectful accusation of Dr. Mebane -- in that were your allegation correct, he would suffer the rebuke of his peers for using a questionable and biased source, a rebuke far outweighing the disapproval of internet blog posters.

I also respectfully request that you apologize to me, for your having been so lazy that you didn't even care to download the paper and examine the source of Dr. Mebane's data, which might have taken you 2 minutes to do.

Here is a nice story, from El Universal, about how the PRD is "helping" the Mexican working class.

Historia del día: El plantón esfuma las propinas

Rubén Castro / ELUNIVERSAL.com.mx
El Universal
Ciudad de México
Jueves 3 de agosto de 2006
12:45 Las mañanas han dejado de ser el lapso de más movimiento para los meseros de Sanborn's de Juárez y Humbolt desde que hace cuatro días tienen a su puerta el plantón de la coalición Por el Bien de Todos. Con la ausencia de clientes, las propinas también se han esfumado.

"A esta hora estaba casi lleno y ahora está vació", menciona Suhey Castañeda, mesera del lugar, quien señala con la mano las mesas con carpetas y cubiertos listos para su uso, pero sin ningún comensal que los ocupe.

Menciona que al haber menos tránsito de clientes, las propinas también se ven mermadas. Calcula que la clientela ha descendido hasta en un 50%.

"Al estar tapada la avenida, la gente no puede pasar y por lo tanto no vienen a consumir", dice.

Desde hace un año, Suhey trabaja cuatro horas diarias en el restaurante. Ese lapso era suficiente para obtener cerca de 50 pesos en propinas para completar su sueldo. Hoy tiene que conformarse con la mitad.

A madrugar

La joven revela que se levanta más temprano de lo habitual para llegar a tiempo al restaurante, donde labora desde las 6 a las 13 horas.

"Vivo en la Roma, tomo un colectivo en Insurgentes pero me deja en Morelos, por lo que tengo que venir caminando. De regreso uso el metro, pero está muy lleno".

Aunque la también estudiante de derecho en la UNAM considera que el PRD tiene derecho a impugnar, cree que el plantón está por encima de los derechos de terceros.

"El PRD tiene derecho de impugnar, pero creo que el plantón rebasa los límites, ya que sus derechos terminan donde comienzan los de los demás".

En la línea de guerra

Al encontrarse en el ojo del huracán (sobre Juárez) la mañana de este jueves le tocó atender a unos simpatizantes de López Obrador.

"Llevaban sus pancartas y todo, venían con la idea de manifestarse en el edificio de la Bolsa Mexicana de Valores y sinceramente me dio mucho coraje, creo que eso ya es excesivo".

Al limpiar una de las mesas del establecimiento, otorga un último comentario: "cada quien tiene sus ideales, pero creo que hay que ser coherentes, ya que no puedes pelear por la legitimidad, cuando ellos hace lo contrario".

Suhey acepta que de continuar la asamblea permanente en un mediano plazo, su sueldo podría verse mermado, por lo que confía que el conflicto post electoral se resuelva lo más pronto posible.

Maya0, isn't there some kind of TOEFL requirement for the art institute of chicago? Not only are your postings incoherent, they are illiterate. What, pray tell, does Fidel have to do with the presidential race here in Mexico. I would assume he backs AMLO, but who cares? Why do you bring him up?

Maybe the tribunal will go for a full count to resolve these questions and maybe AMLO will be declared winner as a result. Then Mexico will be faced with six years of this erratic, anti-democratic, above-the-law egotist in power. Of course, his power will be limited because he will not have sufficient votes in Congress and, having offended and scared major segments of society, he will have little support from anyone.

What a nightmare for Mexico!

If AMLO was seen as a danger before this-- his actions of the past week have shown that all those fears were justified.

Goyo, you HOPE it will be only six years...

The following article is very interesting, from Pravda, excuse me, La Jornada:

It sounds like there is discord within the PRD, as even AMLO has been making noises about no more criminal activity until the TEPJF rules. Monreal would appear to be directly contradicting him. I think that the interests of AMLO (in winning power) are beginning to diverge from those of the PRI thugs who surround him. Monreal, Camacho Solis et al benefit from general instability, this allows them to consolidate their own positions of power. This is all most interesting.

Intensificará coalición acciones de resistencia: Monreal

Agencias

03/08/2006 12:16

México, DF. Ricardo Monreal, coordinador de redes ciudadanas de Andrés Manuel López Obrador, informó que la coalición Por el bien de todos intensificará en los próximos días en el marco de la ley las acciones de resistencia civil pacífica.

Las acciones seguirán, "no nos vamos a esperar" hasta que el Tribunal Electoral del Poder Judicial de la Federación resuelva sobre el recuento de votos, subrayó en entrevista.

Según algunas fuentes, se conoció que ayer miércoles Andrés Manuel López Obrador canceló la "toma" de edificios públicos, que comenzaría a las seis de la mañana de hoy jueves, como un gesto de "buena voluntad" hacia el Tribunal; lo que no descarta (la coalición) es la "toma" del Aeropuerto Internacional de la Ciudad de México.

Al respecto, Monreal comentó: "va a haber muchas cosas todavía; es probable, la resistencia civil tiene muchas variantes, la resistencia civil pacífica seguirá ejerciéndose.

Agregó que todas las medidas de resistencia civil generan molestias, "por eso se llaman así, no son cualquier cosa ", precisó, pero enfatizó que todas las acciones se toman de manera colegiada.

Ninguna de las medidas son cómodas para nadie, tanto para quienes lo padecen como para quienes las integran, pero "el futuro del país está en riesgo, la democracia está en peligro y lo que estamos haciendo es lo correcto para evitar que se consuma un atraco electoral, lo que deseamos es que recuenten los votos".

Andrés Manuel López Obrador frenó ayer en su "asamblea informativa" nuevas acciones de resistencia civil y anunció que esperará de dos a tres días a que resuelva el Tribunal Electoral del Poder Judicial de la Federación sobre su pedimento de contar uno a uno los sufragios de la elección presidencial.
Al plantearle que con esas medidas -el bloqueo de la BMV el jueves por la mañana- se pone en entredicho la palabra del político tabasqueño de esperar a que el TEPJF resuelva en torno a la demanda del conteo de voto por voto, casilla por casilla, respondió que "no, porque fue una decisión colegiada nuestra y él la respetó, porque las decisiones las tomamos colegiadamente".

What is wrong with you poeple?
Calling thugs, scumbags and nasty people to all the people that is right now in the Zocalo...
In what country do you live?
Most of the people that are in the Zocalo square, live in such terrible conditions anyway.

Have you even visited the Zocalo recently? I'm sure you haven't becuase you'd realized that reality is very different than its presented in tv news or some newspaper.

Shame on you if you are mexicans. You don't live near the horrible reality that exists in most areas of the country. All those poeple just want a change that was not given by Fox and certeinly will not be given by Calderon since he started making a fraud. Maybe Obrador will not make that change but we'll not let Calderon be president since he didn't won.

I didn't vote for either of them but I am sick tired of being manipulated and not doing anything.

What did you expected from such a big protest?
That everything will remain calm and normal. Can you stand four weeks to work for democracy instead of six whole years of fraud?

El Cid:

I think your post is related to this report published back on the 26th of July.

Buscan en EU a especialista
Dice el profesor Walter R. Mebane que los contactos han sido informales
26/07/2006

WASHINGTON.- Simpatizantes de Andrés Manuel López Obrador gestionan la asesoría de un connotado experto estadístico estadounidense para reforzar su argumento sobre la inexactitud en el conteo de votos en la elección presidencial del 2 de julio pasado.

Luego del rechazo de Warren Mitofsky, intercambiaron información con el profesor Walter R. Mebane, uno de los más renombrados especialistas en estadística electoral de Estados Unidos.

"Ellos me mandaron datos. Ocurrió que mi investigación estaba en un punto donde pude utilizar los datos mexicanos sobre casillas electorales", indicó el experto de la Universidad de Cornell, quien desarrolla métodos para detectar conteos erróneos de votos.

"Estoy actualmente en la fase de ver si un método mío puede detectar un fraude en las elecciones de EU. Aún no lo sé, pero hay buenas razones en este momento para creer que sí puede detectar un fraude".

Asesor del Partido Demócrata para un análisis sobre el conteo de votos en Ohio en el 2004, Mebane explicó que sus contactos con México son aún informales, a través de académicos de la UNAM y la UAM ligados a la campaña del perredista.

El fin de semana, Mebane utilizó los resultados a nivel casilla de la elección mexicana para una ponencia en la reunión de verano de la Sociedad de Metodología Política de EU, donde concluyó que es necesario un estudio más detallado.

Sugirió que antes de un recuento total de los votos quizá se necesite un conteo parcial en secciones electorales elegidas de forma aleatoria para identificar si hay problemas.

"Si esa muestra inicial identifica problemas con las tabulaciones del voto, entonces un recuento manual total se convertiría en algo extremadamente importante", apuntó.

As you can see, Mr. Mebane's data was provided by the PRD. This was done after Mitofsky declined to participate.

I congratulate Ceci Connelly for her objective report about what is happening in Mexico City.

As a concerned an informed citizen who comutes daily to Avenida Reforma to work I want to manifest my full support for the camps of the Coalition.

It is a fact that the protest causes important inconveniences to all of the people who work in the area. Nevertheless some of us have managed to adapt by getting up earlier in the morning or using the subway. I was, in fact, one of the several thousand who got jammed for four hours in yesterdays hailstorm. Beleive me, the camps played a minor role in the chaos generated by obstructed sewers.

For those bloggers who live in Mexico City that work near this area, I extend a sincere apology and hope you understand the importance of this measure.
I quote one of the signs placed by the protesters near Eje Central avenue: "Disculpe las molestias que esta obra pueda ocasionarle. Estamos construyendo democracia".

As for the resources needed for sustaining the camps. The large tents and portable WC's have been paid by Coalition congressmen (and congresswomen) and public administrators out of their personal salaries. The food, tents, chairs, improvised movie theaters, cultural events, etc. have been brought by the very same protesters (this weekend, some comrades and I will prepare 300 tortas to distribute among the campers).

Although local commerce and tourism have reported steep losses, the Mexico City government will implement tax excemptions that will cover most of them.
Also, they plan to open the Diana Cazadora and Ángel de la Independencia glorietas for transit as well as the avenue's "laterales" (already Periferico, Circuito Interior, Rosales-Bucareli, and Eje Central are open to circulation across the camps, while parallel avenues like Chapultepec, Constituyentes, Durango, and Alvaro Obregón provide alternative routes from East to West or viceversa)

Let me point out an important fact: there's a very simple solution to this predicament. If Felipe Calderón agrees to a vote by vote recount, the Coalition will immediately raise the camps and cease the movilizations (note: I am perfectly aware that the implementation of such a measure is an exclusive attribution of the Electoral Tribunal; nevertheless, an agreement between the main political adversaries towards a measure that will restitute certainty (a principle established in the 41st article of the Constitution) will certainly contribute to political distension and may give (should the results favor the PAN candidate) Felipe Calderón the legitimacy he, at present, lacks.

Recent examples (year 2006) of close elections that were resolved with a vote by vote recount:
1. Costa Rica
President Oscar Arias won by a very thin margin over his closest adversary. A vote by vote recount was implemented and Arias won again, this time with a broad sense of legitimacy.
2. Italy
Romano Prodi won by a slight margin of votes over Silvio Berlusconi. The vote by vote recount took place and italians were reassured that his victory was legitimate.

The Coalitions plight to the tribunal is not annulment but a fair recount. There are aproximately 1,600,000 votes with arithmetic inconsistencies that the Coalition believes were stolen.
There are, mainly, four kinds of arithmetic inconsistencies:

1. The total ballots assigned to the "funcionarios de casilla" is not equal, as written on the "actas de casilla", to the sum of the votes for the 5 candidates, plus the null votes, plus the non registered candidates' votes, plus the unused ballots.
There are 1,104,376 votes that fall into this category.

2. The total deposited ballots are not equal to the sum of the votes for the 5 candidates, plus the null votes, plus the non-registered candidates' votes.
There are 199,465 votes that fall into this category.

3. The nominal list of each "casilla" plus 10 (which should be, according to law, equal to the total ballots assigned to the "funcionarios de casilla") is not equal to the sum of the votes for the 5 candidates, plus the null votes, plus the non-registered candidates' votes, plus the unused ballots.
There are 258,822 votes that fall into this category.

4. The nominal list plus 10 is not equal to the sum of the total deposited ballots plus unused ballots.
There are 58,525 votes that fall into this category.

The sum of all 4 arithmetic inconsistencies is equal to 1,621,188 unaccounted votes.

My source is the "Recurso de Impugnación de la Coalición Por el Bien de Todos" which, I might add, has already been recognized by the Electoral Tribunal as valid evidence to support the Coalitions claims.

PAN supporters: let these votes be recounted. If such inconsistencies were human errors commited with no intention to aggravate a particular candidate or party; if the 35%-35% streak is repeated in these unaccounted votes then you will have the evidence to prove that López Obrador was wrong and there was no fraud (during the election). In such a case, even I would recognize Calderón as my legitimate president.

Reasons why the Coalition opposes annulment:
1. The president's mandate would be shortened from 6 to 4 and a half years.
2. The interim president would be elected by the PAN, PANAL, and PRI majority in Congress. This situation translates as an inherent weakness due to lack of independence of the executive before the legislative power. If structural reforms (such as the fiscal, energy or laboral reform which the Coalition defenitively opposes) were promoted, the interim president would be constrained to excercise its right to veto the initiatives.
3. The new electoral process would take place without correcting the "fallas de origen" of the last process:
a) Lack of representation of the left in the Consejo General del IFE
b) Illegal participation of third parties in promotion of candidacies (art. 47, fract. 1 & 13 of the Cofipe)
c) Campaign spending limit breaking
d) Usage of goverment programs for political proselistism
e) Deviation of oil excedents to said goverment programs aimed at political proselitism.
f) Manipulation of the corporatist vote by the SNTE led by Elba Esther Gordillo
g) Illegal posession of confidential personal data contained in the electoral census.
h) Campaign espionage directed by the intelligence services of the Executive Power (Cisen).
i) Manipulation of electoral results via cibernetic alterations on the PREP and "recuento distrital".

Note: Expecting your angry rantings around the points I have just mentioned I'll just state that I have proof of all of the above. However, I'm tired of defending again and again the validity of my sources against obtuse arguments so you'll just have to do your homework.

As for the origin of "civil resistance", the PAN did block the border bridges, did took over important highways and did establish camps as measures to protest electoral fraud in the 80's and 90's. Francisco Barrio Terrazas, Luis H. Álvarez, Manuel J. Clouthier, Vicente Fox Quezada, and, to a lesser extent, Felipe Calderón Hinojosa, participated on these measures. I can't believe this party or its followers! They have no historical memory!

Djnx, if you didn't vote, why are you complaining. Non voters deserve whatever they get in the way of government. Many people have posed this question in the past, but, I will pose it again. What change does AMLO and his posse of PRI thugs (and I do not know what other word to use but thug to describe someone like Camacho Solis or Murata.) represent? In what way do they propose anything different than what was already, and disasterously, tried under Lopez Portillo and Echeverria? Please enlighten me? I understand they represent change for the PRI dinasours who will be able to get their hands back into the public treasury again, but what change to they represent for you or I?

Fco, the PAN did indeed involve itself in civil disobedience in the 80's and early 90's. They did so because there was no IFE or TEPJF to appeal to. Now there is. End of discussion. (Unless you think the TEPJF is corrupt, I suppose.)

Fco, your points (and my fascist, racist, sexist, junque influenced responce):

3.A Lack of representation at the IFE. Your people boycotted. Mistake on their part, not mine or IFE's. Your fault, stop whining.

3.B 3rd parties promoting candidates. Prove that PAN was involved. If not, it is not their fault.

3.C Breaking the spending limit? Again, prove it. Also, do you mean breaking limits like Ebrard did in the DF, spending 300 million pesos where the limit was 50?

3.D Political proselitism with government programs?