I think the key words here are "the few thousand protesters". Not many left to follow their messias off the cliff. And, I have a strong feeling that come the morning of Sept 15, if they are still there, the PFP is going to sweep through that place like a hurricane.

On a seperate note, do any of you who live in the DF know when Ebrard takes office? I am sure he is praying that this is all resolved before he has to deal with it.

K. Vronna, with regards to your post in the previous blog, I think a possible solution to the campaign financing problem would be the English one of VERY short campaigns, say 28 days, prior to which no political adds or campaign events could take place. Right now, there are Governor's races in Mexico in which as much money is spent as in an American presidential campaign (Tabasco 94), which is just insane.

Ceci,

Do you think it's fair for Lopez to have all the fun. This party has been joined and Fox has as much right as any of us to blow his trumpet.

Victor Trujillo had a Constitutinal Law pointy head explain about what the law means to different parts of Mexican society. The law tells common people what they can not do. The same law of the land tells the branches of government exactly the opposite. The law tells the goverment what it CAN DO.

For a government to operate smoothly the three branches the Executive, Legislative, and Judicial, can and must communicate.

My guess is that Fox got word from the Magnifficent Seven at TEPJF that the ruling would validate IFE's tally.

Fox sent the first feeler. Not many are surprised.

I have a little granade coming your way. Do not divulge my churchillian source, I want people to think I'm so smart as to come up with this whopper.
Remember the "transparent" tete a tete you and I had well in my way to kicking one of the last recalcitrant Colegio de Mexico's Dr. pasilla?
Let's pretend I'm answering your grammatical say you what admonition with this miracle of conciseness:
"This is the sort of pedantry up with which I will not put."

Posted by: rodolfo | August 25, 2006 01:33 PM

I don't have a clue what this guy is talking about; however, I'm not at all surprised: what to expect from someone who confuses common decency in speech with political correctness? His trove of argument is so meager that he has to make use of stupid sexist remarks. I'm sure that I can enjoy a good joke, but not those so cherished by this bunch of reactionaries, based on the most abject chauvinism and bigotry.

maya0 and, in particular, chiapaneco: way to go, guys! You are doing a great public service in confronting innuendo with arguments. I'm back and rested, after visiting one of the Estados Unidos Nortemexicanos (you'd wish, philo-PANistas!). Not much has changed on the right; however, it became a nice surprise how chiapaneco is doing a good job in cultivating the truth among all these dirty lies.

Thank you pasilla!

And now a comment on Ceci's description of Calderon's attempt to "steal" the banners of progressives from Lopez Obrador. Another wet dream of this grey character whose boring speeches are only heard by closed audiences and bodyguards. Those are the only people he feels safe enough to speak in front of.

This in Dick Morris jargon (he is one of baldy's consultants) is called triangulation. Calderon was told that if he adopts Lopez Obrador's discourse people will just forget about fraud and irregularities and welcome him as President, even though there is gross evidence that the guy did not win the majority of the votes.

Sorry Calderon. It's not going to work. Everytime the little parrot utters a word on poverty we are all reminded of the sad results of the PAN government in this arena. They are currently hiding INEGI numbers so people will not confirm that Fox and the neoliberal governments that have preceded him have completely failed at addressing the needs of the majority.

These gobiernos have only acted on behalf of a little group and that is precisely what we want to end. Sorry Calderon, no ammount of parrot talk will make Mexicans forget what your sad campaign was about: promoting hate and division to prevent democratic accountability.

All these poverty jargon comming from a person who wants to be imposed as president through fraud is just plain insulting.

I have noticed that many newspapers are more than ready to use paid-historian Krauze's messianic babble to discredit Lopez Obrador and what he stands for, the Proyecto Alternativo de Nacion.

Once again a reminder. Enrique Krauze, "noted" historian is also a publicist on demand for right wing conservatives. In the Salinas sexenio, Krauze was more than willing to participate in a campaign to present the Porfiriato (Mexican dictatorship that preceded the Revolution) as the best thing that had ever happened to Mexico. Krauze collaborated in the script of a soap opera that romanticized the life of Porfirio Diaz. The aim? To promote Carlos Salinas re-election campaign.

Could these newspapers so eager to quote "noted" Krauze could also take the time to interview Lorenzo Meyer? To be sure Lorenzo Meyer HAS NOT contributed in soap opera scripts to praise former dictators. Yet he does have quite a different perception of what is going on in Mexico that could help these newspapers present a more balanced (and way less cartoonish) coverage.

Here is a fragment of World Views by the San Francisco Chronicle, a newspaper that held its ground and did not fall for the smear campaign by Mexican conservative right wingers that demonized Lopez Obrador to keep the media from poking their noses into all irregularities and fraudulent tactics commited by the PAN and its Elbista associates. (Clear example, Calderon's phone call to some editorial boards to demand from them not to cover irregularities or issues of fairness in the process)

Kudos for the San Francisco Chronicle and its committed pro-democracy journalism:

"As the head of a government that purports to support democracy around the world (never mind that $2-billion-a-year hand-out to Egypt's longtime, democracy-crushing dictator-president, Hosni Mubarak), George W. Bush has completely ignored democracy's struggle for survival right next door, in Mexico. Many Mexicans have noticed Washington's deafening silence.

As a result, now that it's down-to-the-wire time there (Mexico's government must confirm who the next president will be by September 6), in recent days, leftist candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador (or "AMLO") has reached out overseas in an impassioned appeal for support for his reform-minded, pro-democracy movement."

Yep. That's right. European press is giving progressives the derecho de replica that is denied by Mexico's media monopolies and other papers in the US.

Chiapaneco

"As the head of a government that purports to support democracy around the world (never mind that $2-billion-a-year hand-out to Egypt's longtime, democracy-crushing dictator-president, Hosni Mubarak), George W. Bush has completely ignored democracy's struggle for survival right next door, in Mexico. Many Mexicans have noticed Washington's deafening silence.

As a result, now that it's down-to-the-wire time there (Mexico's government must confirm who the next president will be by September 6), in recent days, leftist candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador (or "AMLO") has reached out overseas in an impassioned appeal for support for his reform-minded, pro-democracy movement."

So whats it to be, can foreigners get involved in Mexicos elections or not?

Do you want Bush to comment, or should he ignore it, under Article 33 isn´t he doing the right thing not to interfere, or even be so bold as to express an opinion?

rodolfo:
The Law is the communication mean of an institutional democracy, and this is how the TRIFE will communicate to congress, which will then announce the Elected President to the Republic. President Fox has no business there. Our Courts are independent. Their magistrates were elected by congress, an in particular, the Magistrates of the TRIFE, were all elected with the PRD blessing. And they have ruled in favor of PRD before.
But President Fox knows who the winner is, because that is no secret. Felipe Calderon won and PAN, PRI, PVEM, PANAL, Alternativa and PRD, all of them knew this from day one when they counted their actas.

AMLO and PRD claimed they won, but they never showed the Actas, when people started demanding them to show them, they started saying that the Actas had been falsified or manipulated.

Felipe Calderon won. TRIFE will declare him Elected President.

Had AMLO won that night of July 2, I have no doubt he would have been declared Elected President by now. As it happened, we are still waiting because AMLO has impugnated the Elections in every possible way to either annul some Casillas to revert the result or if that fails, to annul the whole election. They impugnated the whole election for a vote by vote recount and forgot to include all casillas, then they still have thousands of casillas impugnated, and finally, they want the annulment on abstract grounds. AMLO is President or none is.

A Vote by Vote recount: Who will recount? According these people none has the moral authority.

THE PEN IS MIGHTIER THAN THE SWORD: PASILLA IS BACK FROM THE DEAD.

WELCOME. MISSED YOUR LEARNED RANTS!

PeterN: This is the last time you interfere in our internal affairs.
I already got your IP address and I will passed on the the DF Authorities and post it in elsenderodelpendejo.com for the fellows there to start launching cyber attacks on you.
You bloody Brittish!

That's a foreign policy choice for the Bush administration to make: they can be on the side of democracy, transparency and fairness or they can choose to endorse an authoritarian imposition in Mexico. My personal wish is, of course, that they choose the former but I respect that it is a sovereign decision for them to make.

Re: your manipulative comment on Art 33. Our Constitution is not to be applied beyond Mexican territory of course. It does apply to foreigners living in Mexican territory who have chosen not to renounce to another nationality. Certainly the law applies to foreigners living in Mexico who intervene in politics funding or aiding campaigns. Clear enough for you?

emptyboxes,

The government has to communicate within itself the three branches have to have an ongoing flow. It makes sense that there is no written law that flexibility is prohibited. That kind of rigidity has brought down governments through the ages.
Do you really think the FED chaiman goes to congress without a heads up before with the president. It is a government not a Trapist monastery with iron clad vows of silence. Even the trapists allow some communication among themselves.

Fox was speaking for himself not TRIFE, but everyone gets the message.

Pasilla, never thought I'd miss you. Not in a "I looooove youuuu, maaaaan" way, but in an intelectual challenge way, because you actually listen and ponder what the other side is saying. Maya is starting to listen too, but Chiapaneco does not answer direct questions and will never, ever, ever concede a single point, decrying EVERYTHING as cartoonish (that in itself is even more cartoonish if you ask me). You could point out the hour of the day and he'll say it's Calderonista rhetoric. It's like trying to talk to a recording playing on megaphone on a soapbox that is behind a brick wall.

Welcome back.

emptyboxes:

I´ll have to start a varial phase modification of that IP address. Might take some time to work out how.

I wonder if the AMLOs do want Gerge W. to say anything, or only if they can see the speech first, and decide whether it is suitable for the masses to here.

Pasilla, I'd like your take on AMLO wanting to be named president elect by the National Democratic Convention (why is it invitation-only?). Many are mocking him, but this one actually scares me because it can lead to people dying, after all, it would be like declaring war on the state (not the government although AMLO would probably say that) and if Ebrard picks AMLO's side (something I'm not completely sure he would) it could end up, very, very, very ugly. I obviously don't want anybody to die, if you have to ask.

So now chiapaneco wishes the USA to intervene, how? putting pressure on the TRIFE? What do you guys want the USA to do?

Get real chiapaneco, the USA already stated they will recognize whoever gets elected.

Or do you want the USA to directly tell Mexico something like: AMLO won, Recognize him now!
Don't be silly.

Perhaps you would like the USA to intervene the way that crooked and dirty dictator from Cuba, Fidel Castro, has done it. perhaps your would like the Americans introducing videos of people declaring stuff against Fox or Felipe Calderon.

Is that the kind of help you want?

And you guy got to learn to stop being hypocrites, you hate the USA and now you are pestering them?

Give me a break.

Chiapaneco:

Explain this please:

From the California Chronicle....

WASHINGTON, D.C. - U.S. Representative Tom Tancredo (R-Littleton) today criticized participation in the recent Mexican presidential election by U.S. citizens. According to recent news reports, several thousand Americans of Mexican descent may have voted in the weekend election.

So US Citizens can vote in an election of which they will not have face the consequences?

pasilla,

This from a learned rant from your acolyte:

"rodolfa
Eres mujer! Now I understand where your coming from. Not enuff things to do around your spacious peach colored home? Cant entice the UPS man? Now I get it, well enough said. Emptyboxes with the cocaine, and Peter with his warm beer, should be more than enough for u to handle. U should look up the recipe for making crack, and then have a FECAL King of Mexico extravaganza. Just keep it quiet, am sure your already concern neighbors are not up for all day into the night orgys. Sorry for calling u a puto, but i did get the perra slapping right didnt I?"[sic]

Posted by: maya0 | August 23, 2006 01:28 PM

So now Mexico will have it's own Fantasy Island show, except it will be at the Zocalo. You can be whatever you want! What do you want to be? The President? Jefe de Gobierno? Perhaps a Minister of Finances? This is great!

You can even have your own Proyecto Alternativo Cocaino de Nacion!

By the Way: What is that Proyecto Alternativo?

What does "Alternativo" stand for?
Do you guys have any idea? Is that what Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez are doing?
Is that it?

What a cocaine people! Fantasy Island at the Zocalo!

You just don't get how dual nationality works in Mexico right? Go back to my previous post and check out the law. These people with dual nationality do face the consequences. Their families are here and they make a significant contribution to the Mexican economy.

And 58% of them voted for Calderon

To the guy making a joke our of a foreign policy commitment to democracy:

Carta Democratica Interamericana my pal.

PeterN:

"Do you want Bush to comment, or should he ignore it, under Article 33 isn´t he doing the right thing not to interfere, or even be so bold as to express an opinion?"

Your fixation in a point of discussion (granted, vice shared by many of the Calderon followers) is leading you to write ridiculous statements. Article 33, as a matter of fact, ANY article of the Mexican Constitution applies to individuals in the national territory; how can the Mexican President ask anybody to abandon a country which he or she is not visiting, or in which he or she doesn't reside? Why don't you better move on?

(I wrote the above comment before I read chiapaneco's posting; this, Ariel Orellana, shows chiapaneco's systematic, informed challenge to nonsense or innuendo; I disagree with your perception).

Fox's declaration of Calderon as President Elect is one more of his traditional foot in mouth comments. Who's surprised after almost six years of his politically tone-deaf babble? Not at all unexpected from somebody with his disdain for culture...

I wish I could be able to agree with you on Chiapaneco, Pasilla, but I just can't. I'd post examples but there's no point to it. I would still like you take on whay I asked.

Yep. The voto para los mexicanos en el exterior was a complete failure. IFE spent a lot of taxpayer money on this and it did not work. Bureaucracy prevented many Mexicans abroad from voting, others crossed the border to vote at special polls only to find out that they had ran out of ballots. There were actually some protests on this. This is another asignatura pendiente which must be dealt with.

PeterN:

Tom Tancredo can whine all he wants. Mexican law allows Mexicans who have acquired other nationality to vote for President. When one becomes US citizen, one swears to resign to any other nationality, but countries like Mexico consider that resignation invalid. Period. By the way, I repeat, once more IFE displayed blatant incompetence by failing to provide voting registration services in foreign countries. For those of you who blindly defend "the democratic institutions," what do you thing about this oversight (or worse) that disenfranchised millions of Mexicans living abroad?

Pasilla, glad to have you back and see you brought both your yardsticks. You said:

"maya0 and, in particular, chiapaneco: way to go, guys! You are doing a great public service in confronting innuendo with arguments."

I have to wholeheartedly agree, like this gem of debating from Chiapaneco/Vivi:

"Kukiss is your real name? I have to say it is a quite stupid name... and it fits the person who carries it. All your arguments are looney. Seems like you have spent too much time on the phone listening to negative campaign recordings.

There is such a thing as a stupid opinion. Not everybody has a valid point. You don't have one galleta. What you are saying is just plain stupid.

Posted by: Chiapaneco | August 21, 2006 05:55 PM "

Such intelligence is blinding.

President Fox said Felipe Calderon won. All right.
But how many times that dumb fellow in the Zocalo has called himself the President?

It is really funny how AMLO's reaction to somebody saying Felipe Calderon won is to quickly give an interview with some foreing press declaring himself President.

Is seems to me the President and Felipe Calderon are having much fun with AMLO.

It only takes a call from Derbez to some country in Europe, next day they are congratulating Felipe Calderon, and by night AMLO is yelling at the zocalo that he is the President.

The more they play with him the more angry he gets.

That is some fun.

Actually I must fess up, and do post galleta's post again so we can see this in context. I was reading James Carville and I could not help myself from using the Carville reponse demanded by galleta's comment. I must say I enjoyed every second of it.

Can you also post the message when you so very maturely called me a lunatic?

Thanks!

Chiapaneco, you are right, the voto en el extranjero was a disaster. Those ungrateful wretches (58% of them, at least)had the nerve to vote for Calderon. I guess living in the U S, and seeing close hand how a society that values capitalism and not crony populism and caciquism lives has corrupted their AMLO values. They, like Fox, the media, the church, the Cardenas family, Coca Cola, Sabritas, and many many others are traitors, yes traitors to the revolution and will, someday, recieve the punishment they so justly deserve. Right?

"Is seems to me the President and Felipe Calderon are having much fun with AMLO.

It only takes a call from Derbez to some country in Europe, next day they are congratulating Felipe Calderon, and by night AMLO is yelling at the zocalo that he is the President.

The more they play with him the more angry he gets.

That is some fun.

Posted by: emptyboxes | August 25, 2006 05:41 PM"

Are you for real? Mexico's foreign policy has lost all credibility this sexenio. Derbez himself put a lot of the nails in the coffin. Phonecalls will not work, especially after countries found out he lied to them by asking them to congratulate Calderon as president elect. Sorry, European newspapers not interested in boring mousy gray candidates. Dream on and quit the bs.

We are starting a RAP/Spoken word poetry contest.

My name is AMLO and I was robbed!
I'm a victim of a mega-fraud!
More people voted for Calderon than for me.
But that's just not fair, you see.
My enemies are corrupt
Gordillo, the Pope, el Junque, Fox, they must all become kapupt
My friends are all o so clean
Camacho Solis, Murat, Munoz Ledo, the list is so long I could scream.
There is no way I could have lost!
My cookies I want to toss.
I will say I was robbed
as my supporters quietly sobbed
If the Mexican people didn't vote for me,
that just means they are way ugly!

The article said "Americans of Mexican descent". Not Mexicans who had come here, become a US citizen, sworn an oath which Mexico ignores. Many of these descendants never were Mexican.

Mexico, prompted by the left several years ago wanted to extend voting rights to subsequent generations of naturalised USA Mexicans, on the hope they would vote for the left. The recent results show that was a bad idea for them. What would have been the protest from AMLo if all 4,000,000 elegible to vote had,as opposed to the small take up?

If Calderon had won by gaining 58% of the 4,000,000, overturning any victory in "mainland" Mexico, would they not then have demanded proof that all these people had some real, and current, link with Mexico?

It´s just a thought.

Chiapaneco,
Here you go:

"Yeah, I think el Chiapaneco has something with the moon chunks, seems like some of the AMLO comments are from a LUNAtic.

Posted by: K. Vronna | August 21, 2006 04:46 PM"

What's said is "AMLO comments", not your comments. You said AMLO had the moon rocks in his pockets, not you.

"Mexico's foreign policy has lost all credibility this sexenio"

According to who?

Tony Blair from England, Angela Merkel from Germany, Zapatero from Spain and many others have already congratulated Felipe Calderon.

Get real chiapaneco. They have embassies here in Mexico and they inform them on the real situation. They don't take lies from nobody before they congratulate anybody.
They know Felipe won.

We'll see how many countries call AMLO to congratulate him when he gets crowned at the zocalo by his little fantasy island cocaine convention.

Thanks K Vronna... and galleta's? since you have a lot of time on your hands I am sure you can make a quick recap of her "arguments" for all to read.

Interesting. Zapatero confessed he had been fooled by Derbez's lies. He clearly said he was ready to recongnized whom ever and defended Lopez Obrador and the Mexican left from cartoonish interpretations. Some members of the Spanish parliament also spoke against his first declarations.

Calderon has been calling everyone so he can later use Notimex to present himself as being de facto recognized and silence out cry against fraud and irregularities. Not ONE of key Latin American countries fell for this. No calls from Bachelet, no calls from Lula, no calls from Kirchner, no calls from Vazquez and no calls from Chavez. Poor Alan Garcia has to recover from the pain of not having Fox in his welcome party as president of Peru just because he commited the crime of declaring AMLO was the candidate who represented what Mexico was about.

Pasilla, glad to read your posts. Must leave. I am sure K Vronna will take the time to make a compendio of galleta's "arguments". Enjoy.

I heard that emptyboxes and rodolfo are on MY team.

Would that be the reason why they chear up each others posts??

Besitos Polacos pa'los 2. Mua!

Greetings,

Just thought I'd add my two centavos.

As a person who has lived and worked in Mexico for well over ten years, I can offer the following observations....

Many of AMLO's observations are fundamentally correct, but acknowledging this has nothing whatsoever to do with a) his suitability for office, and b) his worrisome self-promotional willingness to use mob rule to get his way.

As to AMLO's purported effective management of the DF, I can only laugh out loud. The crime rate in the DF and the intractability of its world class problems (e.g. pollution and traffic) were hardly dealt with in any effective manner during his term. The crime rate is so bad, and so underreported, that it is a poorly kept secret that people with means are leaving in droves. So what does AMLO do? He encourages mass occupations that show absolutely no respect whatsoever for the comings and goings of people who actually have jobs and are trying to make a go of it.

The potentially terminal nail in the coffin of the 'new Mexico' would be any popular uprising against the election tribunal's independent decision making authority. The message to the world would be: mob rule trumps civil authority.

Can't people in Mexico see what is really what is going with Obrador? I'm sure that alot of the people in Mexico who voted for this communist dictator bullie are beginning to see through this idiot and regret having voted for him at all. You ask what were Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez doing through all this? I can tell you that they are probably waiting to to see the outcome of this fiasco in Mexico, financed by both of them. Poor people in Mexico are so desperate to see a change in their country that they can't see that they are jumping from the frying pan into the fire. Cuba is a communist infested country with no future and Venezuela right behind it. Can't say that I blame the poor people in Mexico ... they just want a change in their country that will help THEM ... instead past politicians who enriched their pockets with stolen money that belongs to the poor ... I don't see how these politicans sleep at night. Shame on them!!! I am telling you that at the end of Calderon's term, because he will be the next President of Mexico, if .... Calderon doesn't come across for the Mexican people, Mexico could very well be the next Cuba. People in Mexico ... look long and hard at what has become of Cuba and Venezuela ... is that what you want? My prayers are with you.

PeterN:

Where is your punctilious English? I don't have a clue what you are talking about, my man... Besides, such a big fuss over 40,000 votes...

"I'm sure that alot of the people in Mexico who voted for this communist dictator bullie are beginning to see through this idiot and regret having voted for him at all."

Posted by: Frank | August 25, 2006 06:16 PM

Mmmmm quick answer? Nope. What we truly regret is that the negative campaign has prompted such partial and even racist interpretations of what's going on here. It seems like according to some Mexicans are not capable of supporting a progressive candidate with a progressive platform without being branded as victims of manipulation a "communist, dictator, bully".

Excuse me sir, but us poor Mexicans have every right to choose the platform we feel represents our interests and the right to demand our vote to be respected. No need to pray for us. We took a liking to democracy and are quite ready to resist an authoritarian imposition. Thanks.

Yo, chiapaneco, is everybody who disagrees with you a racist? Kind of like everybody who disagrees with Maya is a Jew? Hell of a way to have a debate, but I guess if you are out of ideas it is a good fallback position to try to demonize your opponent. To bad it is not working very well.
What country do you think Calderon is going to exile you to after he takes office? Venezuela, maybe, or Cuba? Maybe you can get yourself sent to Zimbabwe, where they weigh the money, instead of count it.

"Mexico's foreign policy has lost all credibility this sexenio." Not entirely. I mean, I know you're all sensitive about Cuba and all but it's still a dictatorship and we'll disagree on that, but the Irak vote was not a disaster.

And the European newspapers, like any newspaper, are in the business of selling newspapers, they will print the story about the train wreck, not the one about it arriving safely to the train station. I wouldn't be extatic over AMLO being in the news worldwide, I'd be concerned.

"since you have a lot of time on your hands I am sure you can make a quick recap of her "arguments" for all to read." You asked, she obliged, do you have to get all sarcastic on her?

Ariel, the Iraq vote WAS a disaster, one that we will be paying for for a long while. It is no accident that the US is happily deporting Mexicans, but no Salvadoreans, the El Salvador govt. supported the US on the Iraq war, Mexico did not. No one is saying that Mexico needed to actively get involved, but if we had just gotten out of the way, and abstained, life would be a lot easier. The Iraq vote made a lot of people feel good, but it was a disaster. On the other hand, Fox's standing up to regional bullies in Havana, Caracas and to a lesser extent Buenos Aires has been something to be proud of.

Good article to read:

http://mexicotoday.blogspot.com/2006/08/live-in-df-security-recommendations.html#links

This is what it is
leaving afloat.
For that reason the
clasismo of our adversaries,
that was there,
but did not come out ahead.
Clear that they are clasistas,
clear that they are racist,
clear that they impel
and they create in the discrimination
and all this is leaving,
because this movement
must like intention
vindicate to million
of Mexican, we are
not going we to let
insist on the necessity
of a true change and
I say to them to you:
The power is not the palaces,
the power are not the luxurious offices,
the power is not the advisers,
is not the guaruras,
is not the helicopters,
is not those that are
to the service of which
they have positions public,
no. No, the power is the town.
That is the power.
Zocalo town, it is for now.

Lopez Obrador is really a very envy fellow. If Felipe Calderon receives a simple call from Zapatero, AMLO gets all angry and calls his staff to quickly get him an interview with some foreign press journalist to declare he is the President. It's ridiculous.

Now AMLO is also complaining that Felipe Calderon, as the Elected President, is getting all the cares and security of the Estado Mayor Presidencial, so AMLO calls that paraphernalia. Clearly showing his envy of Felipe Calderon.

Now that Felipe Calderon is announcing a huge social program to benefit the poor and the women and elderly of this country, Lopez Obrador quickly gives an interview to declare something against Felipe Calderon.

I have noticed how Felipe Calderon appears to be the center of attention of AMLO. He is always talking about him. Felipe says this, and AMLO quickly says something.

What this poor loser doesn't see is that people aren't paying attention to him anymore, people are tired of him, his daily rantings, his daily zocalo tirades.

Actually I got a feeling that those fellows there at the zocalo listening to him are not PRD regulars but a curious mix of Mexican Secret Agents from CISEN and Estado Mayor, some Cuban agents spying on the CISE, and some CIA Agents dressed as regular street vendors spying on the Cubans spying on the CISEN fellows. And AMLO talking like crazy on the stage.

Now that the end is near, and AMLO ship begins to sink, deathly stroked by a cleaned partial recount that showed no fraud, no nothing. I begin to wonder on the relativity of life and the idea of living without AMLO's daily rantings.
Do I want this to end in a few days when TRIFE declares Felipe Calderon President?
Do I really want AMLO to leave the Zocalo and get lost into oblivion?
What incentive will I have to come to my laptop and check on Reforma to read the last rant from AMLO?
What about all these intellectuals who have been making a living out of AMLO?
What are they going to do themselves?

Yes, Emptyboxes, you do want AMLO to leave the Zocalo and fade off into oblivion. And as soon as possible. History is not going to be kind to this fellow, he could have graciously conceded that he lost (since, Chiapaneco's rantings apart, he did lose.) wished Calderon well and faded away to await 2012. Now, politically, he is dead, and even the vultures do not want any part of his carcass.

Haven't the students returned to the DF? Some perredistas think they will rally to AMLO's cause. Does anyone know if this is happenning?

I don't know why Fox's suggestion that AMLO is "messianic" is a "whopper". He isn't the first one to suggest that.

"I'm sure that alot of the people in Mexico who voted for this communist dictator bullie are beginning to see through this idiot and regret having voted for him at all."

Posted by: Frank | August 25, 2006 06:16 PM

Frank: Your remarks are highly imperialistic and interventionists.

Let me tell you that it is a federal crime, under Article 33 of the Constitution of Mexico, to interfere into our internal political affairs with such imperialistical remarks. That includes giving your opinion, talking about it, or even posting stuff like you did in this blog.

Should you dare to continue posting such imperialist and intervening opinions we will report you to the DF Authorities who will be glad to demand your extradition into Mexico and apply the full extent of the law. That may also include being completely incomunicado to stop you from making such interventionist and imperialistical remarks on Mexican politics. Not to mention your IP Address will be thrown to the dogs at elsenderodelpendeje.com and your entire name dominion will be subject to spam and hacker attacks.

You have been warned.

Now if you would consider to change your mind and speak in support of AMLO, then you could just dismiss this Warning and continue happily posting your opinions.

RC, it is racist and fascist to criticize AMLO in any way, for any reason. Please save your criticisms for Fox, the PAN, and the 15 million traitorous Mexicans who voted for Calderon.

Jerry, rodolfo, PeterN:

Notice how as the end gets nearer and nearer. UNAM moves with the same desperation as AMLO and the PRD move.

Read today's article from Francisco Cardenas in El Universal. The guy has been pro amlo all the campaign. No a single line of criticism against AMLO coming from him.
And he usually fingers himself with the idea of an annulment. It is worth noticing most pro amlo analysts do seem to enjoy the annulment more than a reversal of the results in favor of AMLO, I guess they all know that is never going to happen.

Francisco Cardenas brings the opinion of yet anooooother UNAM Jurist whose opinion is agaaaaaaain that the TRIFE or even the Supreme Court should annul the presidential election, not all the federal election of that particular day, but only the presidential election.

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/columnas/60016.html

I tell you, UNAM moves when AMLO and PRD move. Oaxaca is pretty much the same. The moment the TRIFE declares Felipe Elected President, the Oaxaca problem will end.

Jerry,

You forgot to include all of the PASCifistas, too. These are the MOST despicable of all, moderate leftists with principles.

This morning I had a really good laugh, even if it was politically incorrect. Our neighborhood AMLO rad asked me this morning what kind of recount the PASC was going to ask from the TEPJF; JOTO X JOTO PUTILLA X PUTILLA? Really progressive guy. Wonder if Mr. Gay from today's post was really Emptyboxes dad?

K Vronna, to respect people with principles, you must have principles yourself. That kind of disqualifies AMLO, doesn't it?

K.Vronna: Shhhhhhhhh! WHy are you forever giving away my little family secrets?

Can we say that the attitudes of a candidate or a political party do affect those of their followers?

I am a bit afraid of what we went through in this campaign. PAN was successful at labeling AMLO as a danger. But AMLO was also a bit successful as labeling PAN as the party of the middle classes and the rich.
My hope is that none of this will last and that people will go back to vote thinking on the candidates themselves. I voted PAN myself but I cannot promise anybody my vote. I believe Mexicans cannot make that mistake again.
And I hope that in the next elections we can all go back to the campaigns and read about the candidates and start again, a fresh start, PRD will be a party of hope and not of violence in the mind of the voter, PAN will also be another party, maybe it will represent the continuity or jobs or whatever, but it will not be the party of the rich and powerful interest groups. And I also hope one of the new parties can give us a surprise and grow to become a real challenge to the big parties.

I was happy to see Mercado surpassing Madrazo in the after debate polls.

But this is only hopes.

K Vronna, you have hit upon the difference between the responsible, modern thinking left, represented by the PASC, and the old, corporatism/statism represented by populists like AMLO. I have not noticed any hatred emanating from you or other PASC tpes. You have proposals, many of which are wrong, but all of which are well thought out, and you want to discuss them with other well meaning Mexicans. On the other hand, the AMLO type left cannot seem to exist without having someone or something to hate. With Maya, it is the Jews. With your neighbor it is the gays. With a lot of the UNAM types, it is the United States. With others, it is more ephemereal things, like "oppressors", the "rich", Coca Cola, Globalization, foreigners, or the Vatican. But, if you scratch them, basically ALL of AMLO's hard core hate something. It is a rather unpleasant way to live, in my book...

We were at a baseball game in Tecate last night, and one of my drunken friends got a huge laugh out of offering another, insanely drunk, fan free beer for the rest of the game if he would run around the stadium shouting "Voto X Voto, Casilla X Casilla!". The drunk was too smart and refused. Somehow, outside of the DF, that kind of crap just does not fly.

AMLO has made a new demand at his planton in the Zocalo. They will not leave until there is a full recount of the planets in the solar system, because the PAN seems to have opened up the galactic urna, and removed some planets, as there are now only eight of them.

Jerry B, I stand corrected. AMLO is now my hero!

I see somebody quoted Tom Tancredo earlier. He borders on being a fascist (no lie)!

Tom Tancredo is a nut case. If he were Mexican, he would probably get along quite well with AMLO, they are both rather xenophobic and quite afraid of the big bad world outside their respective borders. Unfortunately, he represents a real current in American politics, a current that was given an immense growth potential by the stupid marches of this past May 1.

LOL!!! Good grief Jerry, I almost woke up my son from laughing so hard.

I was refering to you "recount of the planets" :-)

Luna X Luna, Planeta X Planeta!!! Everyone knows that Pluto leaned toward the PRD, because AMLO promised to build a bullet train there.

I tell you, it wasn't the PAN, the Jew Abrahán Uhrnaz or the Japanese guy, Tekito Tubo To who rigged the galactic elections, it was maya0! You know how he feels about Plutos.

Next thing you know, Pluto will try to get married to Uranus. What is this galaxy coming to, anyway?

Who was that last remark directed to, Jerry? You can't be talking about Uranus with just anybody these days. Get me the Peptol-Bismol, please.

Who is going to be the one(s) that go directly to AMLO to ask him to come to his senses after the ruling by the TEPJF if it favors Calderón? Any guesses?

Probably Ebrard, who does not want to see his own future aspirations get flushed down the toilet. Whether AMLO will listen is an open question.

Jerry B, isn't the cibernetic-old-fashioned-"hormiga" fraud against Pluto tragic? Damn you Sabritas and Jumex! Pluto was my favorite planet! Voto x voto, planeta x planeta!

To put an end to the whole nationality thing, article 33 of the constitution doesn't say anything about renouncing to another nationalty in case of naturalization. In fact, the Constitution doesn't say anything about renouncing to some other nationality. Article 33 is only about foreigners' participation in Mexican politics. The article you guys are refering to is article 17 of the Ley de Nacionalidad. Mexicans by birth or sons/daughters of mexicans, born in foreign countries, can have as many nationalities as they like.

Calderón hasn't received congratulations from any left wing government in Latin America. But they haven't publicly expressed their sympathy for AMLO either. I think they know it is a lost cause and it is better to shut up, at least for now. I don't think that the congratulations received by Calderón from Zapatero, Merkel, Blair, the European Union etc. are mistakes. No one lied to them. They have ambassadors here who inform them of what is going on. If they congratulated Calderón, it wasn't because they liked him or because they liked the idea of the PAN ruling the country for six more years. I don't think it goes in that direction. I think it is more as a vow of confidence to the mexican institutions, a vow of confidence to the IFE and to the mexican law. And that, form start, puts some clear boundaries to those who attack the institutions or try to get whatever they want through pressure and not through the instituional channels we have.

Finally, AMLO says he hasn't received hardly any news coverage during the last month. Excuse me, I don't know, is he living in a different country than me? Almost everything in the newspapers, radio shows, tv shows etc. is about AMLO. We discuss everything he says every single day. Every single day is published in almost every newspapers his statements to the press and his speeches. The PRD, despite what they say, is actually the political party with most air time in TV during the campaign. And afterwards it is pretty much the same. Madrazo has disappeared from the face of the earth, Campa is also a no show, Paty Mercado has appeared in a few tv shows and interviews and Calderón has been really discreet during this process. And the fishermen from Nayarit are part of the complot too. How dare they take away the limelight from him?

I wonder what has happened to Madrazo. Hopefully he is on the way to the permament obscurity he so richly deserves. I would be interested in knowing if there are any polling numbers on how the ten million or so PRI voters would vote in a hipothetical runoff between AMLO and Calderon.

Also, considering both Madrazo and AMLO, I propose a new ammendment to the constitution forbidding natives of the State from Tabasco from holding any elected office whatsoever.

Depends on who's still with AMLO, besides Fdez. Noroña of course. If Monreal goes that might do the trick. But AMLO's not who worries me, it's the rad's playing xtreme political sports, it only takes a few to cause major caos.

Good evening felas!

K Vronna, it only takes a few to cause major chaos because we permit them to. The stuff going on in the Zocalo or Oaxaca simply would not be tolerated in any other democracy in the world. The way to register your outrage at the government is to vote the bastards out, not violate the law. We are tolerating this because until 10 years or so ago voting the bastards out was not an option, and "civic resistance" was the only other way to make one's opinion known. Those days are over now. The city of Oaxaca ought to be put under martial law, and the army should be used to open highways and clear out the central plaza. A democratic government has every right to uphold the law, and the constitutional guarentees of ALL its citizens, not just a bunch of long haired wackos with clubs and machetes. Oaxaca would be a great place to start.

bunburina & JerryB,

I agree that there isn't anything in article 33 from the Mexican Constitution that prevents any 'terricola' to express his opinion in an american newspaper blog.

But I want to contribute to our law immersion course by suggesting the reading of article 34, specially fraction II, because you'll be surprised to learn that Lopez Obrador and the PRD gang don't fulfill the prerequisites established in this fraction, to be considered as mexican citizens.

I will save you some time:

"Artículo 34. Son ciudadanos de la República los varones y mujeres que, teniendo la calidad de mexicanos, reúnan, además, los siguientes requisitos:

I. Haber cumplido 18 años, y

II. Tener un modo honesto de vivir."

I always thought that Martita's sons didn't strike me as very Mexican.

So the Constitution says that being born in Lerdo, Dgo., and having a 'credencial de votar' is not enough to be considered a mexican citizen. Am I right?

that is also true, K.Vronna

spoiler, actually pretty much 98.9% of Mexico's political class don't fulfill the prerequisite to be mexican citizens. I suggest they move to the now no-planet Pluto.

"Also, considering both Madrazo and AMLO, I propose a new ammendment to the constitution forbidding natives of the State from Tabasco from holding any elected office whatsoever."

Ha! That is a good one. The only exception I can think of is my very good looking political philosophy teacher in college. He's from Macuspana and I would not mind at all seeing him every day in the newspaper's headlines. He made Marx, Rousseau, Sun tzu, Thoreau and Machiavelli sexy to me.

And yes you are right, in every single democratic country public force is used to preserve public order. Chile for example, under Bachelet, has used the same water tanks the PFP have in San Lázaro, to clear away a students meeting that was disturbing the public peace and no one went on to the media to say it was repression.

K. Vronna you are right, I would be seriously worried if Fdz Noroña or Padierna leads the PRD in the upcoming years. Luckily for us all, it seems that the moderates are finally taking over. The new PRD deputies seem to be open for dialogue or so they have claimed so far. But we'll see, you never know...

The novels are better if you read them to the end. I hope el Peje has the time and the brains to read not only article 39 of the Constitution, but 40 and 41 as well.

"Artículo 40. Es voluntad del pueblo mexicano constituirse en una República representativa, democrática, federal, compuesta de Estados libres y soberanos en todo lo concerniente a su régimen interior; pero unidos en una federación establecida según los principios de esta ley fundamental.

Artículo 41. El pueblo ejerce su soberanía por medio de los Poderes de la Unión, en los casos de la competencia de éstos, y por los de los Estados, en lo que toca a sus regímenes interiores, en los términos respectivamente establecidos por la presente Constitución Federal y las particulares de los Estados, las que en ningún caso podrán contravenir las estipulaciones del Pacto Federal.

La renovación de los poderes Legislativo y Ejecutivo se realizará mediante elecciones libres, auténticas y periódicas..."

I suppose that when el Peje was a little boy he only read the part that says: "Once upon a time...", and that explains why he didn't like children's tales.

I am suprised by the ignorance of the editorials and comments by the Washington Post. I think people are beating around the bush. There is a simple question. Was there or was there not electroal fraud?

As one of Mexico's (indeed Latin Americas) main financial fraud auditors, let me throw in my two cents & give me some credit when I say this...

The Mexican electoral system is an extremely tamperproof system (mind you no system is 100% safe). There are at least 7 layers of verficiations and controls to the system. The most important control is the public tally that is made at each polling station. The only effective way to break these controls would be by bribing ALL polling officials (randomly selected public citizens) & PARTY REPRESENTATIVES (AMLO's own people) present at the polling station. That would be in the area of 20 people per polling station in a nation with about 12,000 polling stations (don't remember exact number). Mind you for the fraud to be effective, you would have to alter most if not all polling stations, because if you only alter a few, these would register as statistical anomalies. (All polling stations that break from the average automatically are set aside for a recount- one of the controls I mentioned)

Basically...AMLO`s claim can only be valid if a couple hundred thousand people were bribed. I will be generous and simply state that this extremely unlikely because of the shere magnitude. Please remember NO ONE HAS COME FORWARD TO CLAIM HAVING RECEIVED SAID PAYMENTS OR PRODUCED ANY EVIDENCE OF SUCH PAYMENTS. If 250,000 people were bribed, wouldn't you expect at least 1 person to speak up? So where is that person?

Let me conclude. The Mexican electoral system is one of the few that was specifically designed to prevent fraud (most electoral systems are based on convenience tradition, and cost efficiencies). If you cannot trust the Mexican system, then what hope is there for other systems that don't actually have controls? How can you trust German, American, or even Swede elections? What hope is there for democracy if any losing candidate can claim fraud without providing proof?

For all other bloggers... please don't reply citing AMLO's pseudo proof. If you cannot explain precisely how ALL the controls and counter verfification devices were violated I am not interested. I WANT EVIDENCE!

One anomaly is not enough, you need to prove a systematic breakdown of controls to prove fraud.

Ah! And please Washington Post... before you talk nonsense please at least understand the system AMLO is challenging and his basis for doing so. Otherwise you become an irresponsible instrument to difuse ignorance. Quite frankly your ignorance and dare I say lack of proffessional ethics can be dangerous in a volatile environment.

Regards,

A UNA DAMA MUY BLANCA, VESTIDA DE VERDE

Cisne gentil, después que crespo el vado
dejó, y de espuma la agua encanecida,
que al rubio sol la pluma humedecida
sacude de las juncias abrigado,

copos de blanca nieve en verde prado,
azucena entre murtas escondida,
cuajada leche en juncos exprimida,
diamante entre esmeraldas engastado,

no tienen que preciarse de blancura
después que nos mostró su airoso brío
la blanca Leda en verde vestidura.

Fué tal, que templó su aire el fuego mío,
y dió, con su vestido y su hermosura,
verdor al campo, claridad al río.

mayaO,
You inpire the fire that that rocks this Ceci cradle. Cheers, senora not yet senorita Tinkerbell, I love to hate you, so I say.

Armagedon,

armagedon.
Did you mean Armageddon?

Suggestions:
Armageddon
Armageddon's
amandin
imaged
Actaeon
Armgaunt
Arcadian
arcadian
arcading
Amidin
amidone
Amgun
earmarked
Markdown
markdown
Aketon
mark down
markdown
arm candy
A marked man.

You have entered pointy head country here, sir. There is an Oxford educated country baron of the north wich is an HRH card-carrying relative of hers, an emptyboxes pitbull, a sub commander named K.Vronna, a poesy genius in JerryB, a psychotic Huichol named mayaO, her sister Chiapaneca, one very white bunburina, a voodoo numerologist in Ariel Orellana, a long-absent but not forgotten mayaO-Chiapaneca twin but with intelligence, and a lot more ranting nuts like you and me.

The Mexicans, plus one Brit, have taken over this WPost Ceci's blog.

I have checked your spiel and I like it. Welcome to Mexican post electoral madness.
pasilla and other locos will examine your words and will conclude you must be a Dick Morris plant. Just my kind of mucho loco, you must be, because you're 100% right.

Armagedon: You are in deep trouble. The hordes of elsenderodelpendeje.com will hunt you down, they probably already got your IP watermark or are trying hard to find an electoral observer who would go by the nickname of some apocaliptical names.
Plus you have violated Mexican Constitutional Article 33 by intervening agaisnt AMLO and you will be brought to justice and remain incomunicado for the rest of your days. I hope your family will have some DF Officials incriminating videos to defend themselves, else they will be also thrown into a DF jail.

A daily meeting at the zocalo with all the acarreados and all the paraphernalia there. There is a lot of money. Me must ask ourselves where all this comes from.

Campaign money, DF money, Venezuela?

Where does it come from? I believe it is time we start demanding these people to clarify this.

"Kukiss is your real name? I have to say it is a quite stupid name... and it fits the person who carries it. All your arguments are looney. Seems like you have spent too much time on the phone listening to negative campaign recordings.

Chiapaneco, After I read this comment I started to laugh and laugh reall loud,
it makes me realize that I got you angry just because I critizice AMLO.
It also shows Chiapaneco that you really belong in AMLO'S clan,
AMLO and his followers can be very disrepctfull to others in a lot of different ways,
BUt when others show disrespect to them,
WOW they are screaming of anger!!!!
AND....
I still insist that Felipe Calderon won
because, Most mexicans voted for him!!!!
That is the bottom line!!!
People should consider that Mexico so far regardless of how the government has acted,
Mexicans have freedom.
YES,,, Freedom, !!!!
Freedom that AMLO wants to take away,
Because AMLO claims and claims that he received negative advertisement from the other political parties,
BUT He is now only showing that they were telling the truth!!!!
AMLO IS A DANGER TO MEXICO!!!!!!
REAL MEXICAN CITIZENT ARE TIRED OF HIM!!!

MOst Mexican Citizens wants AMLO To be exiled to a psyquiatric hospital where he can not only be President, HE can also be a KIng!!!
By the way, Chiapaneco at the end of all this,
YOu will remember me and the others ones,
BUt I hope it will not be too late!!!!

This comment is to Ceci:
Ceci you mention in your article that
Lopez OBrador and his followers have been living in the tents of the Zocalo and other major cities,
Ceci, I have to correct this...
Lopez Obrador has not been living there,
Lopez Obrador has been staying in a very expensive and luxurious Hotel all this time,
Lopez Obrador only shows ups to his" Conference speeches" and leaves.
The "Called" followers (because most of them now are being paid to stay)
are the only ones living in tents,
but they have to keep bringing new followers all the time too.
By the way, It would be interesting,
Asking AMLO why is it that he sleeps as a King in a hotel, as he claims everybody is equal.
Of course, AMLO wont answer,
As AMLO hates reporters and he does not want to be interviewed,
UPS I forgot, He only hates Mexican Reporters,
He likes American (Univision) and Now
He liks French!!!!

Lopez Obrador is always two steps ahead of puppet Calderon and his cronies. Calderon met with some radio journalists and asked them for advice as he wanted to copy Carlos Salinas in his strategy for legitimacy after rigging elections. These are the steps:

1. A "quinazo" or high profile action to feed the supportive media and make the public think Calderon might have the stature to govern even if he did not win the most votes. Lopez Obrador with humor suggests Calderon should put behind bars the Bribiesca brothers and his brother in law Diego Hildebrando Zavala.

2. Alliance with leaders of the PRI to legitimize his presidency. Emilio Gamboa would play the role of Diego Fernandez. Hey! they could even support the idea of burning all the ballots so Mexicans.

3. A supportive media to silence public outcry against the imposition. Ni los veo ni los oigo. Maybe Krauze could also write a soap opera script on El Sinarquismo, as the best thibg that ever happened to Mexico. In this way the country would realize that it is lucky to have as president the heir of a Franquista tradition.

4. A Solidaridad style povery erradication program. Targeted charity used to meet political ends. Dick Morris calls this triangulation, stealing the agenda of the adversary. No real answers to gross inequalities. Just pan y circo distractors.

5. The search for legitimacy abroad. Salinas became Mr. media with NAFTA and a few hand me downs to the PAN. Calderon could very well use the support of the papers who have already bought line by line the negative campaign against Lopez Obrador. I bet the Wall Street Journal would be more than willing to publich praising notes on this soon to be deemed as modernizer.

Sorry Calderon. No imagination. Your consultants are making a lot of dollars but they are not original. No way people will accept the same bs as in 1988. We demand clarity, transparency, certainty. Your refusal to back this claim shows you did not win. No media strategy will change that.

To Armaggedon, you need evidence? pay a visit to www.proceso.com.mx you can also visit www.amlo.org.mx to see what the Coalition in talking about. Gross irregularities citizen groups like Alianza Civica have also denounced after the partial recount. If Televisa is not talking about it that does not make it any less real. Sorry.

No anger. Just sadnness. And pity.

A message for pasilla and Maya0 there is a very interesting proposal coming from Barcelona in Jaime Aviles blog to help end partial and biased perceptions of the post-electoral crisis abroad.

http://www.lahoradelpueblo.blogspot.com/

Could someone please give roldofo his medicice? Is he going nuts or what the hell?

I've decided to expand my kid's list, so now my new sons are daughters are:

emptyboxes, roldolfo, Jerry B, K.Vronna and say hi to Kukiss who can kiss my azteca-zapoteca ass!

love, your mom

Mom! Why did you put toloache in my brother Andrés Manuels's tea?

The IMO, Instituto de Marketing y Opinion has published in its webpage the report of its exitpoll. All data coincides with IFE results: participation percentage and the voting for PRI etc... The only discrepancy is regarding the winner of the most votes. For IMO, the winner is Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.

The informe also explains a lot of irregularities in IFE's countings.

http://www.imocorp.com.mx/Inicio/Estudios/07-06/Presentacion_Nacional.pdf

No, Martita Sahagun has bought all toloache sold in Mexico. No more toloache , the brujos of Catemaco say.

I don't doubt that the Bruja de los Pinos has tried to corner the entire market, but you can't beat those Chinese, they always find a way to get their contraband goods into the country.

Soy hijo de la mala vida. I couldn´t stay away.

Armagedon:

1. Agree with your main conclusion, but it is possible, that without fraud, the results of the counting, even with, as you say, the 7 layers of verification, could show an error when the difference between the two contenders is so small at 0.58%. Even very strict confidence intervals, in the statistical sense could show variations. But recounting again, vote by vote, may in itself not produce the exact result of the 2nd of July vote....no one knows what has happened to the ballot boxes since then...even if they have been kept under lock and key, this would add another dimension to the error in the statistical sample. Even IMO the agency quoted by Chiapaneco, in their own site, show the analysis by an independent analyst Wolf Luis Mochán Backal, who says and I quote:
http://www.imocorp.com.mx/Analisis_PREP_2006[1].pdf

"The real value is defined by the final count and the winner of the PREP or exit polls is only circumstantial." And in other IMO, studies they show differences between their exit polls and the final tallies. The closeness of this election complicated matters. AMLO is stuck on the idea that IMO told him he was the winner and he wants to confuse this with the final result.

2. I have been reading a two tome series called "Presidentes Mexicanos" published by the Instituto Nacional de Estudios Históricos de la Revolución Mexicana and whose coordinator is the well regarded Will Fowler. It appears that what is happening now, has happened in the main before, and that the danger to Mexican governance appears to be less than in other occasions:

a)Guadalupe Victoria, the first president after the independence from Spain, and the short lived Iturbide "Empire", considered to be a not very effective, obscure first president, whose power was zero at the end of his term of office was ready to hand over power. Elections take place and an obscure politician Gomez Pedraza is elected. Vicente Guerrero, hero of the Independence movement, does not like this, he starts his own military movement, and finally he is installed as president. The two opposing political forces were the masons: the liberal york rite supporting Guerrero and the conservative Scottish rite supporting Gomez Pedraza. This habit of not respecting the election process would create a process of 50 years of instability in the country until the election of Porfirio Díaz (under the banner of no-reelection because of Juárez repeated stay in power)
b)Another time when a similar situation took place, of course, was when Madero revolted against Díaz (who put Madero in jail because he feared Madero would win in the election---signs of the desafuero). Victoriano Huerta with the help of Felix Díaz the brother of Porfirio, made a coup against Madero and proclaimed himself president again creating a period of instability until the presidency of Plutarco Elías Calles who created the PNR, the direct ancestor of the PRI, and then created now not a personal dictatorship but the dictatorship of a party.

Today off we go in another attempt at screwing up the institutions, faulty though they may be, which will probably generate another period of instability.

Unless, unless, this vicious cycle is broken with the emergence of strong governors, and brave legislators, that leave the political and justice balance in the hands of the federal government, and slowly, oh so slowly transfer the creative and developmental power to the sovereign states in Mexico.

Nothing strange about what is going on today in presidential politics. The phoenix should rise at the states' and community levels...waking the people to power.

Mrs. emptyboxes Mum,

Such grandness of misery, yours. Such plaintive longing, yours a prayer seeking nothing special.

Will my lifting of gladness, with utmost force create from this communion sopor and remorse.

You are a foreign brute to our delicate orations. Your scrupulous accuracy of definition confounds no one. Keep your dramatic spectacles, naturally exhausting, away from this Parnassus.

Let the quiet extasy that profound cavilation make us Authors obey the voices within. I shall have no light through the darkness of your diatribe, through which your erring stumbles.

Superfluous incense to salute you. You were found in trouble by the wayside. It makes no jealousy that you would seize the pillars of human good and turn our places of joy into a buried never rising Zocalo.

This blogger has an ongoing rant about Mexico's election madness. The rant below is at the bottom of the page.

This is not 1988 (or 1968) - Mexican Election Post #18

MALO staged a set of sit ins yesterday in Mexico City to "explain" to the Mexican people how he and his supporters would not expect anything but a victory (no matter what the count). His thinking is evidently to influence the tribunal that is trying to sort out the claims and counter-claims relating to the very close election.

In earlier times the strategy which MALO is playing out would be very effective. Mexico was a very centralized country. The Mexican Navy is based in a city that has no places to put the ships. A lot of communication - financial, transportation, service - is routed through the Federal District. Road systems and airlines seem to route through Mexico City.

In 1968, when a group of students wanted to press some issues and the then president of Mexico did not want to show badly with the then upcoming Olympics, a demonstration that turned ugly and by some was known as the Night of Tlatelolco. The demonstrations got violent - in part created by government agents and Ordaz was able to quiet the furor at the excess show of force. It was logical to pursue that strategy when Mexico City was the center of the Mexican universe. Under the PRI, centralization was a key element of the political system. It was a hierarchial system.

Beginning in 1988, that began to change, as it did all around the world. Listen to Kenichi Ohmae, who concidentially (at least for me) became a worldwide figure around the time of the 1988 election. Ohmae formulated, in a series of excellent books on the notion of the decline of the nation state. He talked about customers, corporations and competitors. He was also very thoughtful about the changes in relationships that all of us now take for granted. His writings anticipated the decline in the importance of hierarchies. That trend did not expose itself in all places at the same time. In the 1988 election, in a potential last gasp of the PRI hierarchy, Cardenas (the Grandfather of the PRD) lost an election in what some observers called the "long count." Cardenas was winning at one point in the count the screens and the IBM computer doing the count went down and then when they came back up Carlos Salinas became the winner. There was a lot of speculation that the PRI manipulated the results.

In the 1994 election, the PRI seemed to be in control again. They elected Ernesto Zedillo. The PRI thought they had a continuation of their then 60+ years of rule of the country. But Zedillo was not exactly what they thought he was. Zedillo should be credited as an important transition president. During his time, the country began to change, ever so slowly. An election commission (the IFE) was created. Economic growth began to flourish. But in the middle of Zedillo's six year term change began to get out of the PRI's hands. A couple of states went to alternative parties. And then in 2000 in a major change the country elected Vicente Fox.

By any account Fox has not met expectations. Economic growth has been slower than expected. There are still some significant monopolies controlled by the government. But the trend started in 2000 has continued unabated. Over the last couple of years I have worked with a couple of state governors in Mexico who are evidence of the new trend. They are not all members of one party. What they have in common is a group of talented cabinet secretaries and staff and a strong commitment to make the Mexican federal system real.

Some transitions, when the ruling party ran a system for more than 70 years, take some time to be fulfilled. But I believe the forces that began to be explained by Ohmae and were visible in Mexico with actions by Zedillo and Fox are continuing in Mexico. MALOs denial of those trends may be at his own peril.

So what might be the effects of MALOs disruptions of Mexico City? As I see it there are a couple of high possibilities. The first might be some anger in the provinces. It is unlikely that these demonstrations will bring the nation together, indeed, some of those governors and their constituents are likely to work all the harder to implement their vision of Mexican federalism. A second possibility is that the protests could cower the Tribunal into submission to offer something to MALO. But even if they offer him the election (which I believe to be unlikely) the first trend is unlikely to be abated. Third, the disruptions in Mexico City could encourage economic producers to begin to figure out how to integrate their activities outside of the DF. Ohmae wrote impressively about the importance of commercial dyads. For example, he argued that the relationship between Tijuana and San Diego is stronger than the tie between Mexico City and Tijuana or Washington, DC and San Diego. The commercial relationships continue to build - in spite of Telmex and Pemex and other monopolies - across borders.

In any event, even if Calderon is awarded the election he won, he will need to think carefully about how to govern. MALO is not likely to go away, even if some of his supporters are willing to begin to oppose his tactics. But my impression is that Calderon is a lot more practical than Fox and his colleagues were. I expect he will be a bit more effective than Fox. MALO should recognize that the conditions that spawned 1968 and 1988 are simply less important than they were.

Tuesday, August 1, 2006

http://drtaxsacto.blogspot.com/2006_08_01_drtaxsacto_archive.html

rodolfito mijito,

I'll say it again, that mental diarrhea is making me worry.

have your sister K. Vronna give you some of her pepto sometimes works really well on her.

in the meantime I have some stuff to do, get well.

your mom

This piece by drtaxsacto mentions some interesting points in that the local dyads, especially on the borders, are overtaking the governments in responding to the needs of the population. These movements are local and at the same time imply global effects. Human needs will always find a method to obtain satisfaction, even if this method is sometimes distorted by interference by politics. More leeway in local spending discretion and a solid foundation of laws and guarantees at the national level is only logical in a country that has such drastic differences in the socio-economic status of its regions.

The idea of the dyads is well presented in this book:

An Empire Wilderness
Travels Into America's Future
By ROBERT D. KAPLAN

Thanks to Viper, too for returning to contribute to the discussion and especially for this remark:

"The phoenix should rise at the states' and community levels...waking the people to power."

Viper,

This election was foremost a test of Mexican societys' transition into a more mature and stable political society.

Lopez was the people's choice for echeverrismo melancholics. Calderon represented a continuance of "humanistic" government where the presidential figure was less and less referee in any and all disputes.

The people chose a continuity, if by a whisker.

2006 Mexico is not 1988 Mexico, the old authoritorianism has been replaced with a flexible and less influential Executive branch. This curious electoral "crisis" is just a long impasse that is stipulated by law. The normal life of the country continues, despite rumblings and stridency by Lopez and his followers. The peso is stable, there are no runs on bank deposits, the stock market is fine.

Congress will start its work as scheduled and sooner rather than later Lopez will become a windbag joke, like that opportunist Porfirio Munoz Ledo.

Mexican society withstood with aplomb and great display of adult patience this next step in affirming that the old ways are behind us and a more grown up democracy will not sell on the cheap to a sore loser's ranting.

rodolfo you are Brilliant! I enjoyed it much.
Viper, great post.
K.Vronna: I highly recommend these two great fellas for a rank promotion. Please do consider this motion.

Rodolfo: I would attempt to add some along the line of what you posted, though not as valuable as your own post.

-Our dear Republic and its most precious institutions have been spared from the horrible consequences of an authoritarian despot who would have gotten himself re-elected time and time again. Another Hugo Chavez. He is now demonstrating to all of us the kind of democracy he stands for. The street democracy. The daily offense, the violence in the words that encite to physical violence.

And yes, "The people chose a continuity, if by a whisker." But the people also chose to look at the future.

Mexico doesn't want to be like Cuba or Venezuela. We don't want abstract socialism. We don't want radicalizations, conflicts, dogmatism.

I foresee a modern Mexico in a few years. And I believe Felipe Calderon and a coalition will be key to this Mexico we want.

They will pass the reforms this country needs so much. They have to, society is demanding them.

But the left will have its day in the son. And it will be a modern, responsible and social democrat left.

And then our country will be complete.

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Rodolfo, emptyboxes, K. Vronna

Ohmae, dyads, "the responsible left will have its day in the sun" and even Robert D.Kaplan´s contributions (though I don´t like his penchant for war) are just cool contributions.

I think we will know by Tuesday, what the Tribunal will decide...

I feel the love......!

Although reading El Universal, today seemed like every writer was focusing on how fundamental it was that we count each vote again.....Muñoz Ledo (beating the heck out of Fox, for being so stupid)has, of course, forgotten that he stood beside Fox on the day that Zedillo made "el madruguete" and declared Fox the winner. I guess, he left his erstwhile friend Cuauhtémoc before, easily he can do it again; Raynmundo Riva Palacio (a descendant of Vicente Guerrero, and of an apologist for Porfirio, Vicente Riva Pala
cio, and of the first chairman of the PNR the direct antecedent of the PRI) thinks that urban guerrillas are operating in the Zocalo and in Oaxaca signaling that Mexico is in for a period of unrest. He also seems to imply that a vote by vote recount is important. He has never come out and said it, but I think he favors AMLO. Proceso and La Jornada, are, of course, on the side of the full re-count.

Fox will probably have to play a key role in negotiating AMLO out of additional hanky panky. I believe that whatever he negotiates he will appeal to the
moderate PRD leadership in the legislature and possiblyCuauhtémoc Cárdenas and his son Lázaro, the governor of Michoacán. All of this assumes that the Tribunal will declare Felipe Calderón president. Ebrard, has the presidency on his mind, for the future. So he will probably begin the disassociation with AMLO, más rápido que pronto. Funny how Chiapas seems to have gone by the wayside, and how maybe Tabasco will start getting warm.

Once the dismantling occurs in the Zócalo, then they will fix Oaxaca.

Fox may still leave with a blaze of glory. The bookend president: brilliant at the beginning, brilliant at the end, drab in between.
I'll get back to dyads in Google scholar and Ohmae ('cause apparently region states now are not only proximate regions but also virtual regions, interesting concept)
Thanks for the posts.

Stay away from emptyboxes and Co or I will kick your naco-PRD asses

Bunch of illiterate mexican-indians-pro-PRD

if you are dumb-stupid-rude therefore you most love AMLO

La chi.... Your name also says it all,
But I laugh and laugh
Because my theory of AMLO and his followers acting the same way,
It proves to be right.
You too get very angry at me or anybody that tells you that Felipe Calderon is the best choice for Mexico right now.
Felipe Calderon is intelectual, educated, smart, and the bottom line...
He got more mexicans to vote for