Ceci-- It is Sarukhan, not Sarakhan.

George Grayson has been following the rise of Lopez Obrador for some time and precicted well before the election that the messiah would not accept defeat at the polls. Everything that has happened is typical AMLO behavior.

As for the possibility of annulment-- It would be good if there were a way to do the election over very quickly. That is probably not possible. Too bad, because if we held another election now, Lopez Obrador would suffer a much bigger defeat. Most Mexicans won't need TV spots to warn them that he is a danger to the country-- they have already seen it in his recent actions and rhetoric. I cannot imagine that he would get more than 20 percent of the vote now. Also, most of the people who voted for Madrazo would see how stupid that was and instead vote for Calderon.

Assumptions...assumptions....

Just as always Goyo, little facts to back your rantings....

Since the general discussion appears to have drifted far away from the main issue, I've decided to bring the main subject back to everyone's attention.
Below, I have posted a sample of numerous inconsistencies that have appeared after two days of recount of 11,800 or so "casillas". My sources are the new "impugnaciones" of the Coalition documented by the judges and magistrates in charge of the recount (I'm terribly sorry for not translating it for non-Spanish speakers):

Campeche:
Distrito 1
Casilla 79 básica:
Calderón -34
AMLO +34
dif. 68
estaba abierta; faltan 343 boletas
(faltan folios 74274 a 74601)

Casilla 83 contigua 3:
Calderón -1
AMLO +1
Faltan 215 boletas (faltan folios
102000 a 102215)

Casilla 67 contigua 1
Faltan 179 boletas

Casilla 94 contigua 1
Faltan 17 boletas

Casilla 83 contigua 2
Faltan 4 boletas

Casilla 70 contigua 1
Falta 1 boleta

Casilla 99 contigua 1
Falta 1 boleta

Distrito 2
En cinco casillas hay excesos de votos.
Casilla 211 contigua 1
AMLO +37

Total del estado hasta ahora:
más de 1000 boletas desaparecidas

San Luis Potosí
Los magistrados no permitieron la apertura de los sobres con votos nulos

Distrito 5
Una casilla no especificada:
Calderón - 40

Morelos
Distrito no especificado
13 casillas estaban abiertas

Michoacán
Distrito 3
Algunos paquetes estaban abiertos

Distrito 5
Algunos paquetes estaban abiertos

Distrito 6
483 básica:
Calderón - 50

Jalisco
Distrito 3
7 básica:
Madrazo -235
Calderón - 233
AMLO - 65
Campa -9
Mercado - 8
Nulos -28

Distrito 4
Casilla 2920 contigua 1
Sobran 111 boletas
Casilla especial mercado del mar
Sobran 13 boletas
Calderón -6

Distrito 5
El magistrado colegiado en materia
civil, Octavio Alcocer y el juez de
distrito en materia civil Francisco
Olmos Avilés han cerrado las puertas
del distrito a todos los asesores de
la coalición, medios de comunicación y
ciudadanos observadores.

Distrito 7
182 paquetes electorales estaban
abiertos
Casilla no especificada:
AMLO +67
Calderón +6

Distrito 8
Casilla 677 básica
AMLO +80
PANAL -80
Casilla 267
AMLO -100

Distrito 10
Algunos paquetes estaban abiertos

Yucatán
Distrito 3
Casilla 260 básica
Calderón -201
Casilla 270 básica
Calderón - 308

Veracruz
Distrito 1
Casilla 3253 básica
Calderón -162

Distrito 7
Casilla 21 contigua 1
26 votos de más, no hay lista
nominal

Distrito de Tuxpan
7 casillas presentan ruptura de sellos
Casilla no especificada
AMLO +56
Madrazo -56

Tamaulipas
Distrito 5
Casilla 365 básica
Calderón -158

Distrito 6
Casilla 266 contigua 1
Calderón - 157

Estado de México
Distrito 14
Casilla 266 básica
Extravío de una boleta
Casilla 266 contigua 1
Sobra una boleta
Casilla 267 básica
Sobran 3 boletas
Casilla 268 básica
Sobra una boleta
Casilla 280 contigua 2
Falta una boleta
Casilla 256 contigua 1
Falta una boleta
Casilla 260 básica
Faltan 2 boletas
Casilla 281 contigua 2
Sobra una boleta
Casilla 283 contigua 2
Faltan 3 boletas

Distrito 18
Casilla 2037 básica
Calderón - 108

Sonora
Distrito de Hermosillo (no especifica
número)
Casilla 341 extraordinaria contigua 3
Calderón - 220

Distrito 3
Casilla 1284 básica
Calderón - 208

Distrito 2
Casilla 164 contigua 2
Calderón -10
Casilla 240 básica
Calderón - 10
Casilla 335 básica
Calderón - 20

Distrito Federal
Distrito 8
Casilla no especificada
El paquete estaba abierto, no
había lista nominal, faltaban 4
boletas

Distrito 20
Casilla 2022 básica
21 boletas extraviadas
Casilla 2300 básica
9 boletas sobraban

Distrito 16
Casilla 3225 básica
Sobres estaban abiertos
Casilla 3225 contigua 1
Sobres estaban abiertos
Casilla 3353 contigua 1
Sobres estaban abiertos
Casilla 3360 contigua 2
Sobres estaban abiertos

Distrito 5
Casilla 3756 básica
Sellos de paquetes estaban abiertos
Casilla 3765 contigua 1
Sellos de paquetes estaban abiertos

Chihuahua
Distrito 8
Algunos paquetes estaban abiertos
Casilla 542 básica
Desapareció el sobre con las
boletas de la elección presidencial

Casilla 439 básica
Sobres estaban abiertos, se
encontraron 80 boletas de más

Distrito 9
Algunos paquetes estaban abiertos

Distrito 6
Sobres estaban abiertos, boletas
desparramadas por el suelo al abrir la
bodega

Baja California
Distrito 4
Más de 50 paquetes estaban abiertos

Distrito 2
Bodega sin sellos, muchos paquetes
estaban abiertos. Presunción de
embarazo de urnas.
Casilla 440 contigua 1
Extravío de 59 votos

Distrito 7
Muchos paquetes estaban abiertos

Distrito 8
Muchos paquetes estaban abiertos

Distrito 5
Bodega sin sellos, muchos estaban
paquetes abiertos
Para que se den una idea, adjunto video
de la apertura de la bodega del
distrito 5:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hv3uG6wepsw

Distrito 3
Muchos paquetes estaban abiertos

Hasta ahora en el Estado:
Calderón - 224
AMLO + 365
Diferencia 589

Aguascalientes
Distrito 1
Más de 170 paquetes carecen de sellos
y firmas de los funcionarios de
casillas

Magistrados bloquean acceso a asesores de la coalición

Nuevo León
Distritos 1, 7, 8 y 9
Magistrados impiden el acceso de
asesores de la coalición

Distrito 9
Casilla 2098 contigua 1
estaba abierta
Casilla 494 contigua 1
Tiene 17 votos de más

Distrito 2
12 casillas carecen de listas nominales
1 casilla se encontraba abierta
Casilla 99 básica
Actas no firmadas y sobres estaban
abiertos

Distrito 5
Inconsistencias en más de 80
casillas, la mayoría de los paquetes
estaban abiertos

Distrito 12
Casilla 174 básica
AMLO +56

Guanajuato
Presunción de votos "clonados"
Casilla 1502 básica
317 votos objetados
Casilla 1461 contigua 1
370 votos objetados
Casilla 1501 contigua 2
371 votos objetados
Casilla 1501 contigua 1
435 votos objetados
Casilla 1502 contigua 1
316 votos objetados
Casilla 1276 contigua 1
77 votos objetados
Casilla 1268 básica
56 votos objetados
Casilla 1269 contigua 1
73 votos objetados
Casilla 1269 contigua 2
69 votos objetados
Casilla 1269 contigua 3
96 votos objetados
Casilla 1282 contigua 2
80 votos objetados
Casilla 1291 básica
46 votos objetados

Distrito 8
Denuncia penal contra consejeros
distritales por no volver a sellar
debidamente los paquetes tras el
proceso del 5 de julio.

Colima
Distrito 2
Casi todos los paquetes estaban
abiertos

Chiapas
Distrito 8
29 casillas impugnadas por
inconsistencias

Coahuila
Distrito no especificado
Casilla 81 básica
Todas las boletas del PAN fueron
impugnadas por presunta clonación

The following is a link to the video of the opening of the Baja California district 5 ballot storage room.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hv3uG6wepsw

Take special notice in the loose seals at the door, the unusual number of packages opened, the opened ballot envelopes, and the amount of ballots spread all over the floor.
Notice how ballot packages are not stacked one on top of the other. The same happened in district 23 of Coyoacán which I personally oversaw. I suppose it is standard procedure. Also, notice the large amounts of duct tape used to seal the packages (those which are closed, at least). Therefore, the assumption that packages open up because the lid cannot support the weight of the ballots is ridiculous.

The following is a link to the video of the opening of the Baja California district 5 ballot storage room.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hv3uG6wepsw

Take special notice in the loose seals at the door, the unusual number of packages opened, the opened ballot envelopes, and the amount of ballots spread all over the floor.
Notice how ballot packages are not stacked one on top of the other. The same happened in district 23 of Coyoacán which I personally oversaw. I suppose it is standard procedure. Also, notice the large amounts of duct tape used to seal the packages (those which are closed, at least). Therefore, the assumption that packages open up because the lid cannot support the weight of the ballots is ridiculous.

Nothing to Hide ??? Then why not a full recount?? If I were Calderon and believed with conviction I had won, I would also want a recount to give his administration legitemacy..

"Pimps of the political right." Well said AMLO. That the media in Mexico, and really now, most of the USA, does the dirty deed for right wing reactionarys is no suprise. They dont want true democracy in Mexico, they rather kill it with their confusion and double speak. The need to protect democracy is so important that a call to arms to defend it, would be heeded by thousands. Violence is justified for the sake of liberty and equality, which are things that are achieved with true democracy. And what is being offered in Mexico is not true democracy but something cooked up by the volks at langley vir. The evidence has shown, in only one and a half days of counting, that thier was manipulation caused not by human error, but by manipulating humans. This will not stand. Those are direct threats to true democracy. If the PANistas and thier cohorts, continue with their plan to impose an illegal president, a dictator of the right, on Mexico, their will be a revolt. People will take up arms to defend democracy in Mexico.

Almost 100 years ago, Madero, Zapata, Villa; these winds of change, shaked and stired the whole of Mexico, and hence the world, in a strugle for true Mexican democracy.
AMLO represents the spirits of those true Mexicans, who gave their lives to bring justice to the poor and powerless.
Or we get a solution in Mexico
Or we get a revolution in Mexico.

I wish we had an AMLO. Then GWB, the loser of our presidential election, could not have started the wars that have killed so many people and the world would be better off.

Thank you AMLO.

Ceci,

Jesus Ortega Martinez is not a columnist. These are his credentials:

Miembro fundador del Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD), integrante de su Consejo Nacional, responsable de Asuntos Electorales del Comité Ejecutivo Nacional y representante del partido ante el Consejo General del Instituto Federal Electoral. Se desempeñó como coordinador de giras de la campaña presidencial de Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas en 1994. Fue diputado federal en las LI y LIV Legislaturas, y coordinador de su grupo parlamentario en la LVI. Actualmente es coordinador de la fracción perredista en el Senado de la República.

I think that he might not have an unbiased and nonpartison opinion on the subject.

The mexican left has no logic and no sense of proportion!

For this election, almost one million citizens were randomly selected to act as officials at the 130 477 electoral boots. The selection process involved two variables: the month of birth (january) and the first letter of their surname (w).

On election day, together they supervised the process and received and counted almost 42 million votes in the presence of representatives form all political parties. Then, they took the balloting boxes to the electoral district office, were the vote count was captured and transmited, under the eye of the same representatives, to a central database and immediatly published on Internet. The information displayed included the totals obtained by each candidate, and the results for each electoral boot processed.

One could argue that citizens make mistakes, but nobody in his right mind can argue that they were as good as the left claim, to organize an put in place a plot to steal the election from Lopez Obrador, operating simultaneously on almost 140 thousand different locations, just because they were born on january and their surnames start with a "w". Not even Spielberg could do it!

In this election, we casted at least three votes: one for president; one for congressman; and, finally, one to elect our senator, so almost 125 million votes were balloted and counted. The leftist coalition known as PBT won the largest number of seats in the House and the Senate in its history but, the conspiracy theory argues, only the presidency that Lopez Obrador claimed to win by at least half a million votes, was stolen.

How? I cannot figure out how, and there is no one in that party wise enough to provide a sound answer.

The proof? Only a small number of mistakes that does not affect the results significantly.

Then, what is left for them to say? That the mexican bad guys came into action, with the support from foreign governments, even the Vatican, and some alien expedition, and changed the numbers from the copies of documents in the hands of all parties involved, and so on, so on ...

Please guys, give us a break!

I tend to agree with the article in that both the PRD and PAN are giving biased accounts of the recount. Since media coverage was not allowed by some judges, we only have partial accounts of what is going on. Both parties are questioning all votes, in some cases to the point of the ridiculous. Votes crossed with pen and not the IFE supplied crayons and votes smudged by crayon upon folding are set aside for ruling by the higher court. This has lead the TEPJF to set guidelines as to what are the only three reasons to question a ballot. I would suggest we waita couple of days to see what the next chapter of this telenovela is.

Spoiler:

Thanks for your lesson in voting organization, but it begs for some comments. Let's see:

"For this election, almost one million citizens were randomly selected to act as officials at the 130 477 electoral boots (sic)..."

1) Although about one million citizens were selected to act as polling station officers, not the full million was used, because alternates were not asked to stay if not needed; that leaves about half a million actually participating. Moreover, there were instances in which not even the alternate officers showed up on time, and were substituted by citizens in the line for voting. That breaks the random selection. In addition, there is some evidence here and there that selected officers were not in the list of voters in the polling station in which they were selected. If confirmed, this is cause for annulment.

"On election day, together they supervised the process and received and counted almost 42 million votes in the presence of representatives form all political parties..."

At this time it's a well known fact, even reported by IFE, that THERE WERE NOT representatives of all parties or associations in EVERY polling station.

"Then, they took the balloting boxes to the electoral district office, were the vote count was captured and transmited, under the eye of the same representatives, to a central database and immediatly published on Internet. The information displayed included the totals obtained by each candidate, and the results for each electoral boot processed."

You are talking about the infamous PREP. Too much negative to say about it; it has already been discussed; the bottom line: a dismal performance of this system in the hands of IFE.

"One could argue that citizens make mistakes, but nobody in his right mind can argue that they were as good as the left claim, to organize an put in place a plot to steal the election from Lopez Obrador, operating simultaneously on almost 140 thousand different locations, just because they were born on january and their surnames start with a "w". Not even Spielberg could do it!"

NOBODY, ABSOLUTELY NOBODY has claimed that fraud happened in ALL polling stations. This lie is repeated every too often by PAN followers; I wonder if it is taken verbatim from some playbook (or catechism)...

"In this election, we casted at least three votes: one for president; one for congressman; and, finally, one to elect our senator, so almost 125 million votes were balloted and counted. The leftist coalition known as PBT won the largest number of seats in the House and the Senate in its history but, the conspiracy theory argues, only the presidency that Lopez Obrador claimed to win by at least half a million votes, was stolen.

How? I cannot figure out how, and there is no one in that party wise enough to provide a sound answer."

All these votes are cast INDEPENDENTLY. What is the difficulty in altering the results only for the the most important post in play? I have heard this over and over and I don't see why it cannot be done.

"The proof? Only a small number of mistakes that does not affect the results significantly."

Let's wait and see. The TEPJF has to rule if the findings are inconsequencial... or critical. Good attempt by Ceci, by the way, to make sense of conflicting, unofficial information...

"Then, what is left for them to say? That the mexican bad guys came into action, with the support from foreign governments, even the Vatican, and some alien expedition, and changed the numbers from the copies of documents in the hands of all parties involved, and so on, so on ...

No, not so on and so on. The claim is that "bad guys" (and an ocassional bad, very bad girl) participated at different levels in the fraud. The election challenge not only includes the numbers themselves, but the violations of electoral law that might have influenced the result (illegal advertisement; illegal use of the voters database, coercion of voters, breaks of campaign cost limits...)

Statements without a factual base do not constitute more than empty, fairly useless rethoric...

pasilla

I only agree with your last sentence and cannot find any factual base in your comments to support PRD's allegations.

Rethoric?

How about the following fragments from your text?

"...there is some evidence here and there that selected officers were not in the list of voters in the polling station in which they were selected. If confirmed, this is cause for annulment."

This probably sounds as rocket science to you but I don´t think any judge would take it as proof of anything.

"You are talking about the infamous PREP. Too much negative to say about it; it has already been discussed; the bottom line: a dismal performance of this system in the hands of IFE."

Is that so? So PREP is disqualified because you don´t like it and it has already been discussed? Wow, keep on trying.

"This lie is repeated every too often by PAN followers; I wonder if it is taken verbatim from some playbook (or catechism)..."

But this is not rethoric, or is it?

"What is the difficulty in altering the results only for the the most important post in play? I have heard this over and over and I don't see why it cannot be done."

Probably in your wildest dreams and with a lot of imagination, but I am just a simple guy.

"The claim is that "bad guys" (and an ocassional bad, very bad girl) participated at different levels in the fraud. The election challenge not only includes the numbers themselves, but the violations of electoral law that might have influenced the result (illegal advertisement; illegal use of the voters database, coercion of voters, breaks of campaign cost limits...)"

Are you talking about Claudia Scheinbaum and PRD practices in Mexico City?

Please don´t waste your time, I am not trying to convince you of anything, and have had enough of this rethoric already.

Seems to me like you PRD guys feed on fantasies.

In the whole recount in Nuevo Leon AMLO recovered 4 votes and got some 57 votes to review for the TRIFE, but as usual they claim they are not valid.

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/368229.html

These are the foundings in some 50 Casillas or so.

Where is the fraud?

Get real. Those little numbers do not build a case.

This story doesn't sit well with me:

"Condonan impuestos a hoteles y restaurantes por plantón"
http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/368244.html

If you don't collect tax revenues from one sector you have to make up for them from another or ELIMINATE some program or service paid for by the government. So the GDF will pay entrepreneurs and take away benefits from some other sector; I wonder who's going to pay. Why don't they just take this money from the exorbitant funds that political parties receive in taxpayer contributions, in this case from the PRD?

fco:

Your numbers are totally poor and do not add to something really serious. But suppose they do. These are the Casillas where the PAN won. What about in those Casillas where AMLO won? Fraud will be more possible there as the educational level in those regions is significatively lower than in Guadalajara, Monterrey and those urban areas where Felipe Calderon got most of his votes.

What I have heard is that the reason why PRD did not impugnated the whole 130 thousand casillas is precisely because they committed a huge fraud there in order to win. Of course, they cry and talk about a complete vote by vote recount but I doubt they really wanted and most people, now that we are seeing what happened in those casillas of the PAN in urban areas where it is more difficult to commit any fraud, we can only imagine what the PRD did in those poor states of Guerrero, Oaxaca and in Tabasco, where the prd did not impugnated anything.
Now that is where you will find the massive fraud.

I love your "logic," emptyboxes. Do you understand what "voto x voto, casilla x casilla" means? PRD is not afraid of a TOTAL re-count. Actually, that was, still is the demand. All votes, all voting stations: DF, Tabasco, Guerrero, Oaxaca, what have you; ALL VOTES, ALL POLLIMG STATIONS. That was the exit of the electoral labyrinth. So simple...

simple spoiler/spolier... Too bad that you are tired; otherwise I would invite you to read more than one month worth of comments to postings (and perhaps COFIPE); I'm sorry that you apparently came late to the party...

Pasilla: There was fraud, but it was on the other side, and being as how Camacho Solis and the other thugs in the PRD, including AMLO are very experienced in fraud, they thought that PAN did it. Big mistake! PAN has never committed fraud, they have fought against it all their lives, and you cannot say the same about AMLO and Camacho Solis.

That is where the fraud is, I really hope they open the casillas over there in the south so we can see the can kind of Ballot Stuffing these people are capable of.

The PRD and AMLO are the ones who committed the fraud. That is why Horacio Duarte had those Ballots that he say "Someone brought them to our door" that is nonsense and nobody believes it.

Stop the nonsense Pasilla, fco, maya0, stop the fanatism, in democracy you win or you lose, this time AMLO lost and there is nothing he can do to reverse the situation.

These 11 Polling Stations were chose by PRD, they were part of the 50 thousand Polling Stations they impugnated.
No evidences of fraud were found. Many arithmetical inconsistencies, a vote here two two votes overthere. Yes there was a case with some 80 votes that were mistakenly given to Nueva Alianza, but you guys need to see the votes PAN recovered, 20 here, 12 overthere.

First Cocaine Cibernetic Fraud. Then Cocaine conspiracy theories. Now cocaine Recount results.

When are you guys going to stop the nonsense? You got to be a little serious.

Pasilla: Perhaps we could seriously discuss here about why Lopez Obrador went from having 41 percent in the polls in January to having 34 percent and how Felipe Calderon went from having 25 percent in November last year to winning the elections.

So now AMLO is going to Chiapas allegedly to help the PRD Coalition Candidate. Big mistake. He will be making the same mistake Hugo Chavez did in Mexico and Peru, that by trying to intervene in favor of a candidate he made them lose.
The mayority of the people accross the country who voted for AMLO have already regretted it. No reasonable person likes to see tents and people manipulation like AMLO has done. He has exposed himself as a lier in the Salamanca video. His blockade of Reforma has generated a massive negative reaction.

The results of this visit to Chiapas will mean more votes for the PRI candidate.

PAN is right to have its candidate decline in favor of the PRI Candidate. The PAN voters will giving the votes needed to become a governor.

Again, the PRD Candidate, under pressure from AMLO, will not accept the results, and the PRD will be committing another huge mistake.

They don't understand that the great mayority of people who go to vote, they do so because they want a country of laws and institutions and the last thing they want is conflicts. And the PRD already is synonim of Conflicts and street protests.

Too bad. The more PRD continues to cast their lots with AMLO, the more it will pay for the consecuences.

The People will pay them back ignoring them in future elections.

Ceci: It's amazing the thought's and procedures of Amlo lovers, their führer should be proud of them...These radicals has nothing to do? their desperation for losing what they consider been "cinched" is such, than they are ready for "action"...¿¿?? their smoke...stinks!
Thinking people in the States, should be laughing of poor mexicans, led by this cookie...

Ceci Connolly, thanks for greatly improving both the breadth and depth of coverage of this issue for the U.S. press, which in my view has been mostly missing until recently.

It is incredible the lenghts to which this people is willing to go. Now that they did not find anything serious other than a few errors, the PRD and AMLO are ready to launch the mediatic fight of their life. They are already talking about some 40 thousand votes and a bunch of other lies about the recount.

What a patetical bunch of losers.

I have been following the Mexican election, but I must admit that I'm a little confused by the some of the comments on this line.

It was my understanding that the 11,000 casillas that are currently being recounted are casillas in which one of two things were detected. Either there were substantially more votes cast than there were voters or there were substantially fewer votes than voters. Wouldn't either of those conditions represent evidence of fraud regardless of whether the actas reflected the number of votes present? Isn't the presence substantial (as determined by the TRIFE) numbers of extra or missing votes in 10% of the casillas fairly convincing evidence of fraud?

While a recount is a nice feature, it wouldn't necessarily detect most kinds of fraud, including ballot box stuffing or the removal of ballots.

fco regarding the previous article's comments: the fraud comments where, in truth, not yours, they were in the YouTube comments section. Maybe you should have qualified the link with a note to clarify your position. I realize this is more my problem than yours, still, you're presenting evidence used by people crying "fraud". If you do not share the opinion maybe you should have said so to begin with. I don't know, I'm ambivalent on wether or not to apologize for putting words in your mouth. I'll err on the side of caution and do so: I apologize.

For the third point fco, I'm free to add information I deem relevant.

Now, to the matter at hand, while your example has some valid points, you start from a shaky supposition: that the missing ballots were cast ballots. Lets look at one example:

Campeche:
Distrito 1
Casilla 79 básica:
Calderón -34
AMLO +34
dif. 68
estaba abierta; faltan 343 boletas
(faltan folios 74274 a 74601)

If those were indeed cast ballots then the text would say something along the lines of "less votes were found than electors voted". Most likely scenario: the unused ballots were left out, possibly left in the trash. Anomaly? Of course. Cause for annulment? I'm not sure but I wouldn't think so, as the will of the electors at that station was preserved, even if it took a challenge by the Coalicion.

This is precisely why I say than fraud is unfathomable to me, from the moment the voter shows his ID to the time an official winner is named, everything is public and reviewable. Lets look at another example quoted several times here: "falsified acts". First a small review of the process: voting closes, votes are counted, the act is filled, COPIES ARE GIVEN TO EVERYONE OF THE REPRESENTATIVES, packages are completed and sealed and finally the representatives accompany the casilla president to the IFE office, to deliver the package. Even if the representative did not show up, the general representative (1 per 10 casillas) can still pick up the copy. This is done prior to sealing the package and before the package ever leaves the station. If anywhere down the line an act is falsified, vote counts modified by algorithm, black magic or what not, then everyone has a copy they can show and say "Hey, look! The act was falsified" or "Hey, votes published do not match the numbers in the act we were given!" Even more, since everyone gets a copy, the one entity (political party or IFE) that falsified the act can be readily identified. Can this annul the station? Possibly or even probably. Chances of no one noticing the falsification? I think it's easier to win the lottery. The fact the PRD denounces act falsification yet never contrasts their copy against the falsified one speaks volumes.

Finally, regarding the PREP, come on pasilla, you know perfectly well that the PREP was just a tool, much like a poll, not an official result. Even so, lets look at the hard data (you can find full reports at the IFE site) regarding, first the "rapid count" results which the PRD complained so much about it not being published:

Robust method ranges
PAN 35.25 to 37.40%
PRD 34.24 to 36.38%

Classical method ranges:
PAN 35.68 to 36.53%
PRD 34.97 to 35.70%

Bayesian method ranges:
PAN 35.77 to 36.40%
PRD 35.07 to 35.63%

Results after the district count:
PAN 35.89%
PRD 35.31%

If anything, the "conteo rapido calculations" were better at predicting the PRD results thqn the PAN results but still quite accurate. To complaint about the "conteo rapido" results not being broadcasted would imply that it would have been better to declare a winner which would have been Calderon. What would the PRD reaction have been then?

Now the PREP with the inconsistent acts left out:
PAN 36.38%
PRD 35.34%

Half a percentage point away from the real PAN result and less the Half of one percent for the PRD. You may point out the 3 million votes left out initially, but this was per the rules which the PRD agreed to, something they conveniently neglect to mention every time they talk about the PREP.

Lets now include the acts left out:
PAN 35.91
PRD 35.29

A GRAND total of .04 percentage points away from the district count. The PREP really sucked, apparently. Could things have been clearer as to the limitations of this tool? Yes. Can the tool be dismissed? No.

On the fence:

The PRD asked, and the tribunal agreed to open these almos 12,000 packages because there are doubts about them and that is why we're examining them again, so far, and depending on who you choose to believe, the recount shows differences of about a vote per casilla picked up net by AMLO. There are differences of about 5 or 6 votes total, per package. This hardly constitutes fraud, but lets wait for the judges' ruling.

More info coming out, it seems that the PRD is using any excuse it can to leave out Calderon votes. These votes are currently being excluded but have to be reviewed individually by the tribunal. What type of votes are being excluded?

- Votes marked with pen instead of with the provided crayon.
- Votes that have small smudges made by crayon residue.

For Nuevo Leon this means that, of the 400 votes "lost" by Calderon, these two types of votes account for about 300 (these numbers are from the 10th). The net difference picked up by AMLO of 399 votes includes the 351 votes set aside. When you set exclude those votes then the net pickup if 48 votes. The number of casillas recounted at that moment was 390. About an 8th of a vote per casilla. Even if all those votes set aside are included its only 1 vote per casilla.

For Jalisco, with 1769 casillas counted, the pickup by AMLO was of 676 votes net, about .4 votes per casilla. The votes excluded for later review? 3357.

I'm betting that many of those votes will flow back to Calderon, smudges from crayon residue is not sufficient to annul a vote. Same goes for the pen, as the law only asks for a mark to be made inside one party's box, not that it has to be made with the IFE crayon.

Ariel R. Orellana,

I appreciate your response, but you didn't really address my question.

I looked at the PRD website -- I don't think it makes its points well (although that may just be my mediocre Spanish). From what I could understand, each casilla received a certain number of ballots which were supposed to be closely accounted for. The discrepancies reported to the TRIFE were casillas in which the combination of left over ballots plus votes was significantly more or less than the allotted number of ballots suggesting that ballots were illegally added or removed.

The fact that the the actas (tally sheets as I understand it) reflect the ballots inside the packets would appear to me irrelevant. If someone had removed or added ballots, they would have almost certainly done so before the count -- to do so after the count would be ineffectual. And if ballots were added or removed prior to the count, then the recount won't detect that.

The problem, as I see it, is that there are over 10,000 casillas with significant numbers of extra or missing ballots. I don't know whether that invalidates the election or not. But it certainly makes the IFE look bad.

Mr. Orellana,

I appreciate your efforts to clarify what happened with the two Campeche casillas I posted at the start of my recount review. If I were a PAN representative, I would bring you in as a lawyer. I congratulate you.
On the other hand, if I were a Coalition lawyer I would still try my best to prove that those missing votes were AMLO votes. In the end, the TEPJF would be the only institution responsible for taking a decision about those missing votes. I still sustain that jurisprudence suggests, strongly, that such "casilla" should be annulled. On the other hand, the TEPJF could have a less strict approach to the matter and consider the absent votes as irrelevant. Recent events indicate that acting pragmatically is not in the order of the day for the tribunal.

However, though I applaud your efforts to clean a couple of small stains in the recount process, I invite you to zoom back and see the whole picture. It is too much! The whole thing is too messy! Numbers like the ones I posted in a previous intervention on this blog only keep raising more and more suspicion on a high number of voters of the losing Coalition, and some members of the winning party (who, if I might incur in a certain degree of falacy, according to aristotelic logic, have no strong, tangible proof to convince their adversaries that the whole electoral process was clean).

The link to the video I posted was loaded by one of the guys from the Mandoki crew, a declared AMLO supporter. Nevertheless, what it shows is true. Even El Universal showed pictures of the mess in the Distrito 5 de Baja California.
I cannot insist enough that you should check this video yourselves:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hv3uG6wepsw

emptyboxes:
Now you're saying that Duarte and the PRD guys are the real architects of fraud. Well, go ahead, prove it.
However, if you don't have hard evidence that generates strong suspicion at hand your case will not hold water.

As for your claim that the PRD manifests publicly having gained 40,000 votes in the recount... it is just another stark lie.
The PRD has declared that AMLO, at midday, Friday the 11th, had recovered aproximately 5,000.
Anticipating your rantings I'll claim that I agree, vote swapping has been considerably lower than we expected. Nevertheless, the uncovering of large amounts of irregularities will, most probably, prompt the Tribunal to annul a large number of "casillas" (not counting the large number of opened "casillas" that were found inside the storage rooms of the electoral district premises, that were not taken into consideration into this selective 9% recount).

As for your prejudiced argument about northern "funcionarios" being better and cleanier at counting votes than southern "funcionarios", I think Pasilla has given you an appropiate answer.

spoiler:
Glad to see a new face in the blog.
The proof you asked for to support our arguments has been posted extensively and debated tirelessly on previous entries by Pasilla, Marco Beteta, El Cid, and yours truly, among others. I would feel particularly obliged if you could give these entries a quick glimpse and, afterwards, rejoin the debate.

TG
You're the only right-winger talking sense. I support your initiative to wait until Sunday for the TEPJF resolution before precipitating into unsustainable conclusions.

These imbecile PRD followers are more and more looking like islamist fanatics. They carry a stupid caricature of their leader, sometimes gigantic, wherever they go. They also carry signs of hate, and the same as islamist fanatical people, they will hear nobody, no institution, nothing has more credibility than their messianical leader.

And here they come and post all kinds of false and cocaine allegations.

Get real people, stop the fanatism, the recount only shows you there was no fraud. They are trying desperate trying to base their allegations on case like this one:

Casilla 67 básica:
Calderón -3
AMLO +1
dif. 5

What is this? What kind of fanatical nonsense people are this? Who is this thug you respect more than any institution in your country?

Get real fanatical people. Don't be misguided by an insane leader who should be in a mental hospital. Don't you see what he is doing with Reforma? All those people losing their jobs because of his stupid caprice? What kind of stupid nonsense are you following? Come on!

Now that the recount is coming to an end and the TRIFE did not find anything relevant, AMLO wants to annul the whole election. Such is the antidemocratic spirit of this bastard that he will not accept Felipe Calderon to govern. He already calls his a spurious president, Mr. Obrador is so imbecile he thinks this expression generates more sympaties, well, only in the most fanatical of the dumb losers who follow him, like those students who were not admitted to the UNAM and are now asking for his support.

What a ridiculous poor guy, in a few weeks, he has destroyed his career and political capital completely and has aligned most political forces against him and his party.

None listened to his petition to join him in his stupid demands, the PRI turned them down, even though the PRD are expriistas, then they talked to the Partido Verde, and the same, turned down, they talked to Patricia Mercado, and the same, turned down. They tried to get attention from the international press, only to get criticized time and time again.

And now they say they will try to get international support, from who? from Hugo Chavez? from Cuba? from China?

Patetical.

It seems to me there is no shame in La Jornada, here a trick they use to play the game of AMLO

http://www.jornada.unam.mx/2006/08/12/index.php

What a shame on these retrograds. They are the only newspaper reporting this stupid stuff. Not even El Universal is playing on these lies because they know there are no evidences of any fraud.

emptyboxes:

you comments have become so predictably irrelevant, that I don't even bother to read them in detail. If you have something ob substance to say, could you please preface it with some sign? That will save me a lot of time. Thanks.

Ariel Orellana:

I agree, and so I said: the PREP in the inept hands of the current IFE administration more an instrument of propaganda, than a useful source of information (we all now, official results, but without "legal" power). But as spoiler demonstrate onece more, it's a lot easier to rant about the virtues of one candidate, the sins of the other, without saying anything of substance, really. But spoiler is tired, probably tired of the democratic play...

The PRD has been whining about a supposed "eleccion de estado". I have to admit, they were right. There is indeed an eleccion de estado campaign going on right now...

BUT, this election is in Chiapas, and it is the PRD doing it, so, that is alright.

Saque las manos, le exigen a Pablo Salazar

Redacción Excélsior

nacional@nuevoexcelsior.com.mx

El caso de la supuesta intervención del aparato de estado en Chiapas a favor del nieto del poeta Jaime Sabines, quien compite por la gubernatura con el emblema de la coalición Por el Bien de Todos, fue condenado en el Congreso de la Unión y por mayoría se aprobó un punto de acuerdo para que el mandatario Pablo Salazar Mendiguchía "saque las manos" del proceso electoral local.

Elementos sobran para comprobar que hay una franca protección de Salazar a Juan Sabines, dijo el senador Héctor Astudillo Flores, candidato derrotado a la gubenatura de Guerrero.

"No hay duda de que ha habido acciones, nombramientos, designaciones que muestran que hay una intervención que en ocasiones ha violentado la propia ley, voy a citar algunos casos", dijo.

Inició la enumeración con Oswaldo Chacón como contralor de la legalidad electoral, quien, dijo, "no reúne y no reunió en su momento los requisitos porque fungió de 2003 a 2005, como secretario técnico de la Secretaría de Gobierno del estado de Chiapas y esto es un impedimento en términos de la ley local". dijo.

También señaló que Andrés González Díaz, ex coordinador de campaña del actual gobernador chiapaneco, fue designado en estos comicios como director de organización electoral del Instituto Estatal Electoral, señaló el priista.

Astudillo Flores acusó desde la tribuna que los fondos para la reconstrucción de aquel estado, tras el paso del huracán Stan, se utilizaron en forma partidista.

El senador panista Juan José Rodríguez Prats solicitó la palabra antes de sumarse a la votación. "Definitivamente se ha volcado al Estado y a todo el aparato sobre Sabines".

Can one of the less irrational AMLO supporters please correct me if I am wrong, but didn't AMLO promise that he did not want the election anulled?

AMLO and PRD want the election annulled. They don't really want a total recount, that is all propaganda, is pure window dressing so that the dumb followers have something that sounds coherent. He can't tell them to sing in the streets something like "Anull the election!" that will not fly, even among his most staunch supporters.
But now that they saw there is nothing to be found in those Ballot Stations, they are looking for any little excuse the get them annulled.
Too late my friends. And now PAN will respond in kind and they are begining by taking away the Chiapas election, which was pretty much in PRD's pocket, and now not anymore as the many of the panistas of the state will vote for PRI, and you can be sure they will, they don't appreciate what PRD is been doing.
PAN has been and will be pacient until the TRIFE finally confirms Felipe Calderon. They have been working with other political parties like PRI, P. Verde and Alternativa and Nueva Alianza. They are building a mighty alliance that will pass Felipe's reforms and iniciatives and will make PRD like harder.
Never interrupt your enemy when he is destroying himself.

Poor AMLO, he knows these are his last days at the center of Mexican politics and everyday the inertia of his defeat pushes him away and he cannot accept it, he will do whatever to remain in the center, in the news in the headlines, dictating the news of the day, it does not matter if he destroys his parties aspirations, it doesn´t matter if Marcelo is losing all his popularity also.
History is passing AMLO by and he will fall into oblivion.
All is gone, only the sour taste of dreams that will never materialize: A Statue of himself next to that of Benito Juarez that will never be. A picture of him in Palacio Nacional that will not be. A country that will not belong to him. Power slips away from his hands. Colors do not shine. Political analists and intellectuals no longer talk about his greatness and political power and his popularity and they do not foresee him as the next president anymore, everyone has assumed Felipe Calderon will be the next president, why? The process is not over yet, he says. Books no longer talk about his political success or achievements. No more blanket media interviews at Televisa and TV Azteca. No more conferences gathering intellectuals and artists to adore and praise him.
And the opportunity to take revenge of PAN and their insults is no longer there.
What purification of the institutions? Which institutions? IFE, TRIFE, The Presidency? Those he is trying to destroy?
What is left of all that? Only a bunch of ignorant underachievers living at the camps and that need food and money to spend. Only radical groups with no political, economical or intellectual influence like CGH, Panchos villas, atencos, EZLN, ERP, etc. Homeless, punks, prostitutes and beggars joining his camps in search of some food and shelter and willing to yell and to carry those signs. Mandoki and Julio Hernandez and La Jornada and Proceso and their dogmatic clientele readers with zero political influence, the very radical and worst media. Pictures of Lenin, Stalin, Marx, red communist flags intertwined with the yellow and black flags of PRD at the zocalo and at the camps in Reforma. Dante and Beto Anaya and their useless political contribution.
International press having a day at him, criticizing everyone of his moves, Castañeda has more influence in leftist newspapers than anybody else in PRD, what a shame!.
Little pieces of news starting to make it to the press and it is bothering AMLO and his party officials, a man died in one of the camps, a girl was rape, some people are stealing the belongings of some of the people from other states, thiefs hanging around and looking for some opportunities.

The Planton has no way back unless Felipe Calderon comes and kneels before him and accepts him as President, then he will leave the next day. In his dreams.

Here is how a usual PRD Follower thinks:

"Hi I am a Mexican living in the United States, I came to this country looking for work, I hate this country and I support AMLO, Cuba and Hugo Chavez and I would like Mexico to become something like Cuba, of course I will continue living in this terrible country where I even brought my family to live and to work here. I hate it here, the people, the language, their alledged democratic system. I think Osama bin laden is a real heroe, the United States really deserved the semptember 11 attacks. They have never done anything good for humanity, in reality the soviets saved the world from nazi germany and the soviet communist system really works great but the problem is they had to spend all the money in arms because the United States, where I live and work, was always trying to destroy communism. But communism really work for humanity. I live here in the United States and I work at a miserable restaurant, of course I have a new car and a nice spacious house, and we eat meat everyday and we enjoy the freedom to travel and to see and read and to say anything we want and we also have economic freedoms to open a business if we want, but I hate all of these, the terrible conditions of capitalism, I hate George Bush and I hate the American Flag and I sometimes burn one in my garden just for fun. I love Sadam Hussein and I also have a picture of Che Guevara in my living room, I believe in revolution and the power of the people.
That is why I love comandante Fidel Castro, he established a real democracy in Cuba like when he gathers all the people in the plaza and talks to them directly and that is exactly what Hugo Chavez does in Venezuela and AMLO wants to do the same in Mexico. That is why I support AMLO, Viva Hugo Chavez! Viva Fidel Castro! Viva Osama bin laden! Viva AMLO."

Of course we should hate the United States, Empty boxes. If they (and those stinking British) hadn't interfered with Comrade Hitler's plans, we wouldn't have to worry about those interfering Jews (who are responsible for all wars) anymore.

Mr. Lopez is a paranoid loser that wants to lay blame on onyone but himself for blowing his January ten point lead. He knows he lost so he's doing a snow job to weasel his way out of assuming responsability. It is a wonder to behold and pathetic to experience. We Mexicans are being punished for one small man and his maffia's born-to-fail arrogance. In a runoff he would lose again, big time.

I would die laughing if the TEPJF ordered a runoff. And, since their decisions are not appealable, they can.

Jerry B: A run off will certainly give a landslide victory to Felipe Calderon.
I hope somebody will carry out a poll and check on the question: Who would you vote for if we had an election today?

Castro has no democracy in Cuba,
North Korea has no democracy,
Saddams Iraq had no democracy,still dont.
Not independent like it should be.
No person who thinks with a iota of freedom in their blood, wants to live like that.
Democracy was eliminated, when the 1st democratic president that was ever seen in Mexico, Fco.Madero, was assasinated with help from the USA. For over 70 years demacracy laid dormant.
With Fox, it renewed.
2 of July, 2006, demoracy is once again hijacked.
The party of the rich and powerful, and the gullible, PRI-PAN, wish to keep AMLO from winning. Hence the democratic process has been threated.
Mexicans, real democratic Mexicans will rise to the ocasion, with arms if need be, to defend what is so sacred. Freedom. Freedom is at stake in Mexico, a dictator from the right, (FE)lipe (CAL)deron is trying to bury Mexicos freedom and democracy with an illegal take over.
This will not stand, we will take more than just streets, if are freedom is threatend. But to impose a dictator of the left, is imposible for the true Mexican, who yearns for freedom, and true democracy. We would not allow that. AMLO and all of us who want true democracy, demand that their be a full recount. If not, then nothing is proven. Only that theirs something to hide. If FECAL where a true democrat, he too would demand a full recount, Voto X Voto Casilla X Casilla
but hes not. The proof is in his actions.
AMLO has taken over, one street, yeah important, but more than the freedom that true idependent democracy means?
Poor individuals, who generalize and think all people are the same. We dont want a Castro or Hugo version, or a systum of goverment that varies from what we have now. We still want malls, ferias, cars, all the enemities, that a capital systum gives. But we dont have that in Mexico now do we? More equitable. AMLO is equitable. Hes not radical to demand a true democratic process. Hes correct and their for we support him. Proof is, some ppl in the USA, watch AMLO and whats going on, and some think,wow, if only we had done that with Gore, maybe no 911, no current wars. The whole world is watching.
U want investment in Mexico? So do we. Theirs no arguement their, we have much in common. We dont want a commuist. Thats so imature to think that we do.
The left in Mexico wants true demorcatic change, it was revived with FOX, but he didnt do much with it, or allowed 2, but thats democracy. And now FOX, the PRI, the PAN, FECAL, most media in Mex, and elsewhere, want to bury the democratic process. No way jose. Its not going to happen, to many lost years. Does the PAN want its own 70 years too? So, join with us, in demanding a full recount. It will ease along the process. Whoever wins the full recount wins. Y ya, se acabo.
It will be over, the winner takes the prize. But not without a full recount, because if they try to impose FECAL on us, the true Mexicans, who yearn for freedom and deomcracy and change, real capitlistic, 1st world change, for more of us, not less, not just 4 a few; we wont allow a dictator of the right to take power. Their would be a rebellion.
Not the 1st time that has happen here.

Hermanos, touch your heart for Mexico, what it means, 10,000 years of history,
the mixing of all races, becoming us.
We owe it too ourselves to unite in the defense of true democratic change.
People of the world who yearn for change, yearn for freedom, please keep us in your thoughts, and watch, this is going to get very instresting.
"May u live in intresting times."
a very old curse in china.

Say the election was anulled, and AMLO went on to lose the next one. Will he accept that, or will he claim it was unfair because he was forced to make an arse out of himself to secure it?

Ms. Maya the zeroeth wrote this: "Mexicans will rise to the ocasion, with arms if need be". Umh... Where are the arms going to come from, Maya? Your heroic PRI president Echeverria (one of AMLO's heroes) basically banned the private posession of firearms in 1974.

And, somehow, I do not see the three of four PRDistas in Baja California, for example, mounting a revolution, armed or not.

Any process that does not lead AMLO to the presidency is inherently biased, unfair, sexist, racist, classist and imperialist. As a point of fact, maybe elections should just be done away with, since rich capitalists and Americans only manipulate them.

"Hi, I am a PRD Follower and I hate USA, I hate USA with all my hearth and I love Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez and Osama Bin Laden, they and AMLO are the real heroes of democracy, True democracy, like when all the cubans gather at the plaza and Fidel Castro speaks to them, that is real democracy, not the voting system in so called democracies like Germany or Spain or USA or Mexico, where the votes do not count and it is all fraud. Real democracy is in Iran where the ayatollah leaders speak in front of a real crowd, same like in venezuela with Hugo Chavez, he even has his own tv show to have the opportunity to speak to the people directly, and same like Fidel Castro in Cuba. That is why I support AMLO, he is like Fidel Castro or like the Iranian Ayatollah or like Hugo Chavez, he has a special gift to sense the will of the people, oh yes, and when he speaks, it is the will of the people speaking, that is why the perredistas get together to listen to him at the zocalo, that is real democracy.
I hate USA, I like to burn American flags sometimes in my backyard (I have a nice backyard in my beautiful house here in Texas, and a garage and I just purchased a brand new Ford Lobo, and soon my family and I will get our residence card) I hate this stupid country so much, I was so happy when I saw those airplanes hitting those towers and killing all those Americans, they really deserved it.

Vote by Vote! Viva AMLO! Viva Fidel Castro! Viva Osama Bin Laden! Viva Stalin! Viva Hitler!

Looks like the DF assembly plans to give itself a little bonus of $1oo,ooo pesos and according to Lorena Villavicencio of the PRD this money will end up in AMLO's war chest. From notimex:

"La coordinadora de la fracción del sol azteca, Lorena Villavicencio --a título personal-- reconoció que este dinero lo podría destinar a la resistencia civil de Andrés Manuel López Obrador."

What happened to Emptyboxes? Has his defective genetic code finally taken over?

Hi I am a PRD Follower living in the USA. I hate this country so much with all my hearth and I wish it will be completely destroyed soon.
I moved to Texas and I live here with all my family I have a good job, I am very smart because these stupid americans give me a good job and very good salary and the stupid dogs don't know I am communist and I hate them. I am so smart! I have purchased a house here and I even have a Ford Lobo, is red and very nice and when I go to DF and show off with all my friends there.

I would like AMLO to be the president, I know he really won, He never lies, those panistas are a bunch of liers.

You see, AMLO has a special gift, he talks to the people directly, that is why we don't need these stupid election systems in Mexico, just go to the Asamblea Informativa and AMLO and the people there will decide.

I hate America so much. I would like Osama Bin Laden to attack them again, just don't attack Texas because I don't want to lose my job.

I love Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez and Stalin and one of my best heroes is Mao from China. These are real heroes of the world, not like washington and these stupid people of this country.

I hope AMLO can impose himself and be the president and stay in power like Fidel Castro, for about 50 years or so, that is real democracy.

Oh I hate these americans they are so dumb, I am very smart because they don't know I am pro castro and pro osama and I support AMLO, and they gave me the opportunity to work here and to bring my family and to get my papers, when I came crossing the rio grande they helped me. They are so dumb and I am so smart.

Viva AMLO! Viva Osama bin Laden! Viva Fidel Castro! Viva Iran! Viva Hisbollah! Mueran USA! Mueran Israel! Vote by Vote!

pasilla, fco, maya0, where are you? help me with Jerry B and bunburina and K.Vrona, please.

I am on your side. I hate americans too. I want to burn american flags. I believe in Stalin too. I am pro Castro and Pro Hugo Chavez. And I support Hisbollah, Osama Bin Laden, the iranian Ayatollah, and just about every enemy of the USA in the world, I support them all and I would like them to destroy the USA and I want to help AMLO impose a real democracy and totalitarian regime in Mexico, with AMLO in power for 50 years and then after he dies, he can pass power to his younger brother to continue with his revolution.

Come on guys! I am on your side.

Emptyboxes, if you can just find out a way to get rid of these irritating elections, Mexico will be a much better country. Elections only generate bad feelings and cost a lot of money that can be better spent on making the poor into dependent clients of AMLO. The stupid Mexicans also have a bad tendency to not elect the right leader, because they are not intelectual enough to withstand the racist/imperialist/yankee/el junque propaganda machine. It would make much more sense to just let their betters (like Monsivais, Pontiawaski, assorted actors and actresses, and a bunch of very honest ex PRIistas) make the hard decisions for them.

After all, this system works very well in Cuba, China and North Korea. The fact that 10% of Cuba's population lives in Miami is just further proof that they are too stupid to make decisions for themselves.

On the fence, sorry for taking so long, but summer weekends are made for the outdoors. The PRD has overstated facts before, I wouldn't be surprised if this was the case again. The last assumption you make, that ballots can be stuffed prior to the count is wrong. The count is made as soon as voting ends. There are many safeguards against ballot stuffing: transparent urns, numbered ballots, a synchronized voter count by the station secretary and all representatives (they have a copy of the voter list, which they mark with a "VOTO" stamp). Additionally, since party representatives, up to 2 per party normally are not at the casilla they would normally vote (iow, they can be assigned on the other side of the city), then there are always more ballots than voters, to allow these representatives to cast their vote at the casilla they are if every single voter casted their vote. Finally, the votes are counted in front of everyone and everyone signs off on their agreement with the numbers or, if something does not add up, they can write it down in the act (tally sheet) and sign it.

First, lets describe the proper procedure and what is necessary for everything to add up: On voting day the first act (the electoral day - "jornada electoral") is filled upon opening of the station, this one includes the number of ballots received, and is then updated any incidents that ocurred during the voting process (drunks, people with political propaganda, someone intimidating voters, etc). As voters come in, representatives sign ballots at the top, at the point where it detaches from the block, and making sure to cross over the detachment line. At the end of the voting process, the votes are counted in front of everyone, any unused ballots are cancelled, put into a special envelope, the number of ballots written on the outside. Now the filling of the second act, the tally sheet, begins, first with the votes for every party, the number anulled votes and then number of unused votes. After this is done, everybody signs off, no exceptions. If they so wish, the representatives can sign off under protest and write down the reason why they do so. Now the list of voters, with the "VOTO" marks is put into an enverlope, the null votes into another envelope, the valid votes for all parties into yet another envelope and the tally sheet, protests, jornada electoral act in a final envelope. Now a package is made with all the left over crayons, indellible ink (used to mark the thumbs of voters that have participated, yet another safeguard), voting booth material, envelopes and the ballot blocks (with the representative's signatures) and then is sealed with a special tape. The 4 officials who man the station sign across the tape as to render it sealed. If the representatives wish to add their signatures they can. Finally, the final envelope is put into a transparent slot on the outside of the package and also sealed. Sound complicated? Try it after 12 hours under the July sun. Believe me, it sucks, I did it 5 times, once as an official and 4 as a representative.

Basic scenarios:
- Everything is perfect. Never had one of those.
- Sometimes, a station will be subdivided because of a high number of voters. You can have as little as one, seen as many as 6. When this happens you will get votes from one subdivided casilla in another one. How the hell this happens I will never know, there are at least 4 pairs of eyes on the voters at all times, but it WILL happen, I guarantee it. Since votes can't me moved back to their original station (as opposed to the scenario where a vote is put into the wrong urn within the same station, where you can move the ballot back to its correct urn) then you already have stations with more votes than voters participated and with less than voters participated.
- Since you have a complicated procedure that has never been practiced by the official, its almost a sure thing that one step will be screwed up: one of the envelopes will be left out (and probably noticed after the package has been sealed), the envelope thats supposed to go on the outside will be put inside, someone will make a mistake while writing down numbers and then correct it, etc etc Some of these are problems that will justify an opening of the package, some will not.

What can account for a significant number of missing ballots? One of the envelopes is left out. This one will generally be the unused ballots envelope, as many officials will assume that they can get rid of it (who needs unused ballots, right?) or, since its made so much earlier than the putting together of the package they'll leave it lying around and forget about it until its too late. If all the other numbers line up, then any of this possibilities will be the most likely ones.

What can account for a siginificant number of excess ballots? I've known of officers who will ask to put their unused ballots envelope into the package of the contiguos station, assuming that it will be ok. If everything else adds up, then this is possible.

Remember, the number of voters is known and can be looked over, when I say "everything else adds up" I mean that the number of voters matches the number of votes, wether anulled or valid.

If there are suspicions as to wether the urn was stuffed and then the act doctored, you have several ways of detecting this: you will find ballots with non matching serial numbers, ballots have watermarks and other security measures, each representative's signature has to line up with the corresponding part on the voting block, etc. For stuffing to work, ballots and signatures will have to be forged perfectly plus you still have to doctor the tally sheet. However, every party has a copy of the original sheet, making it practically impossible for this scenario to occur. If anybody tries it, I'm certain they will get caught and anyone trying to cheat knows this, stupidity would have to be monumental on the part of the offending party to go ahead and try it.

I hope I have not bored you to death with this lengthy explanation, but I hope this helps you reach your own conclusion.

Thank you very much, Ariel for a very thorough explanation.

fco, I can understand why AMLO would continue to try to prove that the missing ballots were indeed votes for him, but the numbers still don't point in that direction in this particular scenario. I guess this is the nature of what's going on right now.

Now, as to the "whole picture" I believe you're also missing perspective here. These are the "worst of the worst" offending casillas from the point of view of the Coalicion. You cannot simply extrapolate the problems here and claim that the whole election is tainted by the same problems.

The information you've provided is incomplete in many ways, there is no reference as to the total number of stations recounted at the moment the information was compiled. Sometimes there are only blanket statements. Given this limitations, I'm going to categorize the problems reported according to their severity. This distinction is arbitrary and I've bascially made 3 categories: problems that will probably be dismissed, problems that will be looked at in more detail, so the outcome is unpredictable and things that will probably anull the casilla. Finally, there is a categories for problems unrelated to the election and another for incomplete information.

- Trivial problems, will probably be dismissed, including small numbers of missing ballots, small numbers of mistakes in the counting (< 15 in both cases), votes punt into the wrong casilla and "objected votes": 27

- Medium problems, will have to be looked into, outcome unpredictable, including more than 15 missing ballots (even if no other problems), more than 15 votes miscounted, combinations of trivial problems and, most importantly, opened packages with no other problems reported. That is packages whose contents otherwise match perfectly, but were found opened ("gutted" was a one of the more colorfull descriptions I read): 456

- Severe problems, will probably result in anullment, including more votes than voters, more ballots than voters and opened packages that had additional problems: 25

- Problems unrelated to the voting process (magistrates blocking access to representatives and similar): 8

- Districts with incomplete information, on which no conclusions can be made: 14

If my assumptions are correct and I then proced to assume that half of the casillas with medium problems will be anulled then we're talking of some 250 anulled casillas with probably around 25% of the 12,000 casillas processed. At that rate, maybe 1000 casillas could be anulled. This would be 0.77% of the total. Let's work with round numbers and say 1% (1300 casillas) and that Calderon loses an average advantage of 150 votes per casilla. This means he would still have an advantage of about 50,000 votes, even discounting the vote changes in the rest of the casillas.

This scenario has many many holes and is based wild suppositions and now I will further assume that no more casillas will be anulled since the TEPJF has already ruled against that they do not meet the conditions to be opened.

So, what does the big picture look to me? Calderon will win, probably with more than 50,000 votes, but AMLO will be mad and we'll be here, arguing, a month from now.

Mrs Jerry b. thinks that Echeverria was heroic, he was a monster, that should be locked away till dead. This just shows that Mrs Jerry b. is confused, and of course clearly shows that he knows dick about Mexican Histroy. Its no wonder that u think that their are no arms here. Weapons come into Mexico via the USA, as easy as drugs go into the USA via Mex.
See how little u really know about Mexico? La frontera is not deep Mexico. But then again, thats what u think is Mexico dont U, Mrs Jerry b?

Miss Connolly,

Instead, or rather in addition to Ackerman, you should refer to articles of intellectuals like Krauze, Isabel Turrent, Jaime Sánchez Susarrey, Ezra Shabot, Soledad Loaeza, Elizondo Mayer, Lorenzo Mayer, etc. These people understand the situation in Mexico much better, they are some of the best social scientists in the country. Ackerman is second rate in comparison. I think the foreign press is mostly biased in favour of AMLO because they are lefties in the US. They should read the abovementioned intellectuals to see what the people with the deeper understanding of the situation in Mexico are saying, maybe then they would write more responsibly. The open letter from 135 intellectuals is very significative because they are the top SOCIAL SCIENTISTS in the country. The response by 500 'intellectuals' is irrelevant. Aside from Monsivais and a couple of others, they are artists and second rate intellectuals, no match for the others. Why should we care for what Diego Luna says, he is an actor. I am not surprised that this Maya00 idiot, who only repeats slogans, is an 'artist', most of them are like that, only feelings and no analysis. So please, people in the foreign press, see things as they are, not as you want them to be, no matter how noble your motives, because you are doing a disservice to Mexico (fortunately you do not have that much influence). 'Voto x Voto' is an absurdity and sore losing, which would only weaken the electoral institutions which regardless of errors are solid (Ugalde is not the whole thing fortunately). I am very glad the partial recount showed no big differences (a full recount would show even less differences in favour of AMLO because it would include his strongholds). Lets hope the government shows more courage and uses public force against the radicals. By the way Maya00, before you start calling me a fascist, AMLO fits rather well into the fascist definition: convergence on a charismatic leader, with all the show involved, a mass movement in constant mobilization, and so on. A couple of articles by Soledad Loaeza, Isabel Turrent and Silva Herzog showing the fascist traits of AMLO are very illustrating. He is potentially a Juan Doming Perón. So think about whom you call a fascist.

Ariel Orellana,

Very illustrating description, thanks. Jorge Alcocer has interesting articles on similar lines.

Mex: I do not believe Dr. Ugalde committed any errors at all despite what many AMLO apologists want to make us believe.

The fact that there was an inconsistencies file of Actas that were not included in the PREP, it has been documented that the political parties knew about it way before and that Horacio Duarte consulted these files. We cannot blame Dr. Ugalde for the lies of AMLO and the PRD Coalition.

Dr. Ugalde, as many professionals in the IFE cannot be blame for criminal and astute tactics from AMLO and the PRD Coalition to discredit and destroy the election process.

May be the only error of the IFE is not to accuse AMLO and the PRD Coalition of fabricating evidences to change the election results.

Ms. Maya, please inform those of us who are not quite as smart as you in what significant ways that AMLO's economic program differs from that of Echeverria or Lopez Portillo. Will policy towards petroleum or electricity differ? Monetary policy? (Will the B de M maintain its independence?) And so on.

And, somehow, Ms. Maya, the idea of a bunch of armed intellectuals like yourself running around with guns would be almost risible if not for the fact that, like the Zapatistas in Chiapas, you will problably convince some poor dummies to actually start shooting. And, when the (stress the word "poor") dummies start dying, you and your ilk will be off to university in the hated United States, far away from it all and safe. You disgust me.

Pueblos indios, marginados por generaciones, admite Fox

El presidente de la República, Vicente Fox, ayer hoy que uno de los grandes retos que ha enfrentado su gobierno ha sido la situación de rezago y pobreza que han tenido que soportar los indígenas por generaciones, por eso hizo un llamado a agotar todos los frentes, en todos los niveles de gobierno y poderes del Estado, en la tarea de integrar a los pueblos y comunidades indígenas al desarrollo nacional.

I wish everybody would make short comments.
The long comments are unreadable, obfuscate and do not clarify your message.
We want to know your opinion, not your bias. Right now what do I think: Calderon got the most votes, period. The TRIFE will
certify it so, end of story.
What we read here is mostly nitpicking blabber among over-excited post-election junkies, Mexican-style. Please keep it short and acid!!
People reading this are watching and might conclude we're serving ourselves "just desserts".

Calderontotherescue: this is not the Nopaltitlan de las Flores Post, but the WASHINGTON Post site!
Could you at least translate your very original propaganda, or are you afraid of platitudes exposed, PUHLIZE...

Calderón pierde -6898 votos que en las actas del 2 de Julio habían sido sumados a su favor "por error", sin sustento en boletas electorales.
AMLO gana 2406 votos (perdiendo tan sólo 89, totalizando 2317)

Los votos perdidos por el PAN y ganados por AMLO arrojan un saldo de +9215 votos favorables a la coalición (6898+2317=9215).

I know emptyboxes will post some irrelevant stuff saying still is not enough votes to win the election. But the main point here is that thw whole process is FULL OF THIS CRAP.

My point is, FECAL has not been elected by the majority of Mexicans.

If the TRIFE would act responsible enough (which I doubt) it would rule to nullify all those voting polls. But I think their best way out would be to nullify the whole election so PRI-PAN can have a puppet I mean an intern President and do whatever the heck they want for the following 18 months and prepare with dirty tactics again in order to deal with that major threat for Mexico (AMLO). Isn't Democracy great?

No doubt fco, pasilla, get real, maya0IQ et al would be just as strident in their claims of a corrupt election system had AMLO won.

I´m sure, if AMLO had won, the first thing he would have done is a comprehensive review of the election process that allowed a little Hitler like him to become president.

Mrs Jerry b, a gringo mexican wannabe, pls go away to your life in the states, because thats all u know, pls butt out of Mexicos affairs.
Mexico para los Mexicanos. Vayase al carajo, instead of posting here. Because if a uprising does happen, hopefully not, your kind should not dare be in Mexico, because u will be found. And taken care of. Thats a promise, and not no threat.

Maya0IQ,

"Come and have a go if you think you´re hard enough"

Get Real: the nuts on the left would like nothing more than an anulled election which PBT made LEGALLY IMPOSSIBLE. PBT did this by impugning less than ALL the 300 districts. Lopez wants as much noise as possible to obscure the fact that he blew a 10 point lead, the poor schmuck.