Fox's Farewell Address -- Bring in the Troops
It was supposed to be his grand farewell, a moment to bask in high popularity ratings and a strengthened economy. But outgoing President Vicente Fox faces a bitter -- potentially violent -- showdown tonight, uncertain whether he will be able to actually deliver his final state of the nation speech or even make it to the podium inside the Chamber of Deputies.

Instead of preparing one last victory lap for the man who ousted the once-dominant PRI, the plan is to erect a veritable shield of armor around Fox.
All day Friday, Mexicans strategized about street and subway closings as political commentators speculated on what will happen at 7 p.m. (central time), when Fox is scheduled to stand before Congress to give the speech, known as the Informe.
"As Mr. Fox prepares to deliver his final State of the Union address Friday, that work includes resolving a political crisis that could plunge the nation into violence. He might not even be able to enter the site of his speech, the lower house of Congress, because protesters are threatening to block his path," explains Alfredo Corchado of the Dallas Morning News.
"While these addresses normally are used to discuss poverty, crime and other issues, Mr. Fox confronts a volatile civil disobedience campaign by leftist politician Andrés Manuel López Obrador, designed to reverse presidential election results that left him the apparent loser. The results showed Felipe Calderón of Mr. Fox's National Action Party beat Mr. López Obrador by 239,000 votes."
Yes, after camping out in tents in Mexico City's Zocalo for weeks, López Obrador and his supporters are now threatening to block entrances to the legislative building, create traffic gridlock and even physically surround Fox so that he cannot speak. López Obrador and his Democratic Revolutionary Party, or PRD, are targeting Fox because they say the president has illegally aided Calderón during and after the July 2 election.
As the Los Angeles Times points out, Fox has been anything but circumspect about his attitude toward the two candidates.
"As López Obrador and his supporters ridicule the tribunal's conclusions, Fox and his government have tried to bolster its image, as well as that of the Federal Electoral Institute, which organized and ran the election. One government-sponsored television commercial shows a woman telling the camera, 'I defend the tribunal, because the tribunal defends my vote.'"
Not Quite Official, But...
We're still waiting for Mexico's election tribunal to certify Calderón as the official winner of the July 2 election -- the seven judges have until Sept. 6. But ever since the panel rejected López Obrador's demand for a full recount, virtually everyone agrees the certification is a fait accompli, and Calderón will almost certainly be sworn in as president on Dec. 1.
The tribunal's refusal to acquiesce prompted López Obrador and his PRD party to raise the stakes once again. He has promised massive, unspecified civil disobedience today and beyond.
"The Informe is only one potential flash point in the PRD-PAN confrontation that has shaken the nation since the July 2 election. Another is Sept. 16, Independence Day, when the PRD plans to hold a 'constitutional convention' in the Zócalo - despite the traditional military parade that arrives at the square in the morning and the president's annual 'grito' from the National Palace the evening before. PRD officials on Wednesday said they don't seek a confrontation with the military, but they would not reschedule or relocate the convention."
Known by his initials, AMLO is now talking about scheduling meetings of his parallel government every six months.
In preparation for this evening's event, government workers have fortified gates around the legislative building and officials announced they were doubling security forces. Between 8,000 and 8,500 city police officers and federal agents will be on hand. (And Campaign Conexión thought the Secret Service went a little overboard in Washington for the president's State of the Union!)

Federal police step up security in preparation for President Vicente Fox's final state of the nation address. (REUTERS/Andrew Winning)
Both sides are amassing small arsenals.
"For weeks, an army of federal police wearing riot gear has stood behind the 12-foot-high steel wall protecting the compound. There also were water cannons mounted on trucks. Roads were blocked and officials announced late Thursday that most subway stations in the area, as well as near the presidential compound, would be closed - a quick way to ensure that if demonstrators want to get anywhere near Congress, they're going to have to walk for miles."
What makes the drama especially interesting -- and different from most protest movements in the U.S. -- is that many lawmakers are vowing to participate, and not just with speeches. It won't be enough for Fox to simply make it inside the chamber. Once there, he'll have to contend with a sizable block of PRD legislators who will certainly hoot and holler, and very possibly physically block him.
Don't Worry, Be Happy
For all the threats from PRD, the Fox team is putting on a good face, with claims that he won't be deterred. But behind the scenes, discussions have been underway about other options, including a "Plan B" option that has him arriving by helicopter if protesters make it impossible for his motorcade to navigate the downtown streets.
As in the United States, the Mexican president is not required to deliver the speech in person; it has simply become a tradition. Fox could send a written report to Congress or address the nation directly from the safe confines of a radio or television studio.
According to El Universal, "PAN leaders also huddled Thursday, including an evening session called by its Senate leader, Santiago Creel. Party officials promised to 'protect' the president, though without answering any violence with their own. 'We PAN legislators won't be provoked,' said Marko Antonio Cortés Mendoza, a PAN senator.
"In an interview with EL UNIVERSAL Thursday, Cortés said Fox should deliver his speech on television if he is prevented from giving it at the Chamber. 'It's a way for him to reach every Mexican's house, so they can be aware of the achievements made during his last year in office,' he said."
Either way, the Fox camp is privately putting out the word that this will be a brief speech.
The former Coca Cola executive is finishing his six-year term with popularity ratings that would make George W. Bush salivate.
But Mexican surveys can be deceiving. In a country where positions of authority garner great respect, it is common for citizens to tell pollsters they like or approve of a leader. More interesting in the poll are Fox's ratings in specific categories. While he scores high for honesty and managing the economy, Mexicans are disenchanted with his performance in the areas of job creation, security and combating corruption.
Regardless of what happens this evening, Calderón won't be in the chamber. The almost-president-elect plans to watch the speech from his transition offices. Calderón aides say he is merely following tradition; Fox, for instance, did not attend Ernesto Zedillo's final speech. But they weren't exactly on the same team. Were it not for the tribunal and López Obrador's challenges, Campaign Conexion suspects tonight's address would have been the perfect opportunity for him to symbolically hand the torch to Calderón.
Now it looks as though the Harvard-educated Calderón will mark his victory on Sept. 10. Juan Camilo Mourino, head of Calderón's transition team, said the PAN has a right to celebrate. (No word on where the López Obrador folks will be that day.)
At a meeting with party leaders in Cuernevaca, Calderón sounded a conciliatory note, speaking of "opening the door to dialogue." Where there is division, he suggested, we will sow unity, where there are insults, we will speak the truth.
Back at the Encampment
For those of you unable to get to the Zocalo, Jonathan Roeder, has an excellent account of his recent visit to the tent city.
"Guadalupe Acosta Naranjo, secretary general of López Obrador's left-leaning Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) and also in charge of the encampment's logistics, showed reporters a map of the encampment, complete with the locations of the 80 gas tanks that are firing the grills and greasy stovetops that feed the movement.
"City civil protection officials, he added, constantly worry about the camp, telling them the amount of fire extinguishers required."
Roeder introduces us to student demonstrators, an enemy "infiltrator" and a man from López Obrador's home state, charged with serving up meals for his compadres. "The cook, Don Pedro Gallinos, said he occasionally gets special orders from López Obrador himself, who hails from the southern Gulf state. His favorite dish, they said, is pancita, or tripe stew, prepared Tabasco- style with garbanzo beans and tomatoes."
By washingtonpost.com |
September 1, 2006; 4:51 PM ET
| Category:
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Posted by: Adam | September 1, 2006 05:48 PM
Ceci,
Vicente Fox is a an all around good guy. He is likable, decent and THE BOSS.
In this little comedy of an Informe he has all the cards and all the big sticks. All other players are rabble rousing dwarves.
Fox represents not only the Executive branch of government. In a very peculiar way, we Mexicans all feel offended personally because he represents each one of us. He is US. We back him because the rowdies are attacking all of us. They don't own the Zocalo nor Reforma street, they don't own this large country of ours. We, the people are coinheritors in our lifetimes of this sacred Motherland, and we won't allow some tin pot gorillas think otherwise.
Fox, you tell them that!
Posted by: rodolfo | September 1, 2006 06:14 PM
Well said, Rodolfo! Little Lopez and his merry little bunch of street fighters will not bring down this great nation-- as long as the people back their president and the institutions established by law.
No matter what happens tonight, Mexico will survive. Even if he has several million people willing to follow him, the nutty guy from Tabasco does not have the support of the vast majority of Mexicans. He cannot claim to represent the "people," when the majority of the voters rejected him. As the CIDAC poll shows, if the election were held today, Little Lopez would get even fewer votes and Calderon would win with over 40 percent.
Fox should stand firm and let the military maintain order if need be. No one has the right to break the law in pursuit of political ambition.
Posted by: Goyo | September 1, 2006 06:22 PM
Ceci, you wrote:
"As in the United States, the Mexican president is not required to deliver the speech in person; it has simply become a tradition. Fox could send a written report to Congress or address the nation directly from the safe confines of a radio or television studio."
The constitution says (capitals are mine):
Artículo 69 - Informe Presidencial
Artículo 69.- A la apertura de Sesiones Ordinarias del Primer Período del Congreso ASISTIRÁ el Presidente de la República y presentará un informe por escrito, en el que manifieste el estado general que guarda la administración pública del país. En la apertura de las sesiones extraordinarias del Congreso de la Unión, o de una sola de sus Cámaras, el Presidente de la Comisión Permanente, informará acerca de los motivos o razones que originaron la convocatoria.
ASISTIRÁ = attend
Posted by: K. Vronna | September 1, 2006 06:37 PM
Goyo,
Music to my ears:
The new concept of democracy - According to AMLO - Mexican Election Post #22
The head of the election tribunal came close to the final determination on the Mexican election by suggesting that save about 4000 votes Mr. Lopez Obrador failed to win (he lost). But wait.....
#1 - AMLO has suggested that he will give his own Grito on independence day (September 16) and declare himself president. but #2 - Polling is turning against this self styled messiah. In a poll released in the Wall Street Journal the following responses were reported -
a) Do you agree with AMLOs resistence to the election results - NO 68%, b) Based on what you know who do you think won the July 2 election - Calderon 62%. c) If the election were held today who would you vote for Calderon 54% (on July 2 37%), AMLO 30% (on July 2 36%), Madrazo 12% (on July 2 23%) - thus support for Calderon has come at the expense of both Madrazo and AMLO.
Finally, (based on a 10 point scale with 10 being high) - How would you rate the following - The voters in the July 2 election (8.2), The electoral tribunal after the election (7.1), Calderon's conduct after the election (7.1), AMLOs conduct after the election (4.1).
posted by Dr. Tax in Sacramento at 5:07 PM
http://drtaxsacto.blogspot.com/
The "crisis" will be a shambles of a house of cards, Lopitos and all, blown away by the new democratic Mexico.
Posted by: | September 1, 2006 06:38 PM
The "Music to my ears" post was mine.
Posted by: rodolfo | September 1, 2006 06:52 PM
mexico is a great country fox has done a great job this mad man who has lost the election and his thugs must pay the penalty for all the cost incurred on a major developing country jv
Posted by: don jose | September 1, 2006 06:56 PM
K.Vronna,
Ceci isn't supposed to know the prissy punctiliousness our government attaches to parlamentary rites and rituals.
We break the law in every which little way we can in our daily lives but when it comes to pomp and circumstance, girl, aren't we barroque.
Posted by: rodolfo | September 1, 2006 07:04 PM
Why should Mexican taxpayers have to subsidize with our taxpesos the PT and Convergencia parties that are only political wings of the PRD. What's the difference between the three?
Posted by: K. Vronna | September 1, 2006 07:19 PM
Can't say I blame them. Look what not protesting over the stolen elections in the US did to our nation.
Posted by: Will in Seattle | September 1, 2006 07:24 PM
I'm sorry my friends, I don´t have any respect for a person (Fox), who told us "stupids, you don't believe that Mexico can grow at the 7% (economy)"... until now we don't grow at the 7%...
I respect the institutional figure, but not the person, for that Fox don't has my respect.
Posted by: Max | September 1, 2006 07:35 PM
Unfortunately for Fox, his crystal ball didn't work so well in predicting 9-11 and the world economic recession.
Posted by: K. Vronna | September 1, 2006 07:42 PM
Will in Seattle,
Would your local police allow a sit-in blocking all entrance to your main square and your main street be settled by squatters for an indefinite period of time?
Are Seattle police idiots of some sort?
Are the vast majority of Seattle inhabitants chumps who will be trampled upon?
Would the State police sit on their hands?
They shure would if they were perredistas.
The only reason this silliness is happening in Mexico City is because the PRD mayor is in cahoots and is lapdog to Lopez wishes, the real boss running things here.
In Europe they had an Adolph and Italy had their Mussolini. Here we have our Lopez to remind us of old fascistic glories.
Posted by: rodolfo | September 1, 2006 07:54 PM
K. Vronna,
WOW! so now the failure of Mr. Fox administration can be blamed on 9/11?
He did everything right from your perspective, right? another foxiland believer!
Yes we have less poor people in Mexico, Viva!!
Viva Mr. Fox!!! Viva Mr. Fecal!!! y que Viva la gente estupida que no se informa correctamente!!
Posted by: Anti-Yunque | September 1, 2006 08:02 PM
Anti-Yunque/ViviClone
Just a comment on a fact that many refuse to take into account. Did I say that 9-11 was the justification for everything that went wrong? Did I say that I am a believer in Foxilandia? Is your last sentence a well thought out and respectful argument? Insults are a dime a dozen and going down in price everyday due to their great abundance, especially from AMLO supporters. Find an anger-management group fast before you sour your life forever.
Posted by: K. Vronna | September 1, 2006 08:16 PM
Anti-yunque,
you're right... viva la gente que no se informa correctamente! viva the sister republic of Reforma! Viva to the people that don't even bother reading the whole constitution. Viva to the people who think everyone is out to get them. Viva the people who are so anxious to hold power that they invent a non exitant fraud. Cause everyone knows that that is the kind of people I want(not)to rule my country...
Posted by: bunburina | September 1, 2006 08:19 PM
K.Vronna,
Happy with your sexy article 69?
Posted by: rodolfo | September 1, 2006 08:30 PM
It's hard to believe that the PRD leadership is allowing this kind of damage to their party. Running up to the podium waving banners and chanting a stupid slogan to block the President from speaking? I don't know how this is playing in D.F. but in Monterrey, people who formely supported AMLO are more and more embarrassed by these antics.
Posted by: Greg | September 1, 2006 08:56 PM
Beyond Sour Grapes
September 1,2006
Left-wing deputies in Mexico have just taken over the stage in Congress, preventing President Vicente Fox from making his final state-of-the-nation speech.
These thugs should be put in jail and face the maximum penalty the law allows. It's time for the real Mexico to get tough.
Posted by: Fred Phil | September 1, 2006 08:58 PM
What are the angry people protesting about?
Posted by: Senor Love | September 1, 2006 09:04 PM
I'm still amazed by how far the Coalition goes to discredit their cause. At least they didn't physically harm the president, or carry out violent marches, but still they reinforced their image of intolerance. They should go to the Profeco to demand their PR people, what a disaster! Just hope that the real left can come out of this as a viable alternative.
Posted by: K. Vronna | September 1, 2006 09:11 PM
If I were President Fox-- I would act on behalf of the nation and its institutions and use my last few months in power to put things in order. First-- federalize the police force of the DF. Clean out the Zocalo and get rid of the plantones along Reforma.
If the Little Lopez people get nasty, fight fire with fire. I would also bring a couple of young cops on television with me so that they could tell their story-- about how these "peaceful" demonstrators throw rocks and filth at them. People would see that these are not "robocops," but human beings. They are Mexican men and women trying to earn a living and doing their job to uphold law and order. It is a disgrace that people elected to Congress to make laws are violating the laws and destroying the very institutions upon which democratic government is founded.
Let's hope the president gets tough and stops this nonsense.
Posted by: Goyo | September 1, 2006 09:17 PM
If I were President Fox-- I would act on behalf of the nation and its institutions and use my last few months in power to put things in order. First-- federalize the police force of the DF. Clean out the Zocalo and get rid of the plantones along Reforma.
If the Little Lopez people get nasty, fight fire with fire. I would also bring a couple of young cops on television with me so that they could tell their story-- about how these "peaceful" demonstrators throw rocks and filth at them. People would see that these are not "robocops," but human beings. They are Mexican men and women trying to earn a living and doing their job to uphold law and order. It is a disgrace that people elected to Congress to make laws are violating the laws and destroying the very institutions upon which democratic government is founded.
Let's hope the president gets tough and stops this nonsense.
Posted by: Goyo | September 1, 2006 09:19 PM
I'm not angry at all K. Vronna. I'm just laughing here reading all those pro-PAN people's comments.
Those who still believe everything is going super-duper in Mexico. Those who think Televisa-TV Azteca are serious in their news programs and not biased.
BTW. I could care less for AMLO-PRD same as I care less for PAN-PRI-YUNQUE-etc
My view is that Foxilandia has not solved many important issues in Mexico and I seriously think Fecalandia won't solve those either (as well as Amlolandia if that would've been the case).
As an observer from the US since I migrate here 10 years back I think there's a good chance of doing a regression on the political arena to almost 40 years a go. I just have to say, what a f*ing shame!
Posted by: Anti-yunque | September 1, 2006 09:24 PM
K.Vronna,
Cuauhtemoc is waiting in the wings, Amalia is an OK governor and the Lopez lunatics will be shunned and expelled, or take their fascist pipe dream and their wonderful little party down with them.
The tribes are running amok, lapdog Marcelo gave a ranting nonspeech before Lopez today at Zocalo. He plays the lapdog routine to a tee.
There were hopes that he would rejuvenate the party rethoric, driving the party to a more sensible center. But a lapdog is a lapdog, that Marcelo little chihuahua.
Posted by: rodolfo | September 1, 2006 09:29 PM
President Fox presented himself in the Congress building and delivered his "State of the Union Address" in writing, thus complying with Article 69 of the Constitution.
His speech will be given at 21:00 hrs. on nationwide TV from the presidential residence, reaching a larger audience now.
Win-win situation!
What else is there to report?
Posted by: PETER FREDERIKS | September 1, 2006 09:30 PM
Peter Fredericks,
The Lopistas at Zocalo are gathering in numbers as you read this.
What will they do, where will they go, will they ever stop?
I'll keep you posted.
Posted by: rodolfo | September 1, 2006 09:37 PM
Just what a lot of people have said about the Coalition's miserable PR group, now Fox's speech will carry a much greater weight and be seen by a much larger audience like you say, Peter.
Posted by: K. Vronna | September 1, 2006 09:38 PM
K. Vronna, why just their PR people? what about those polls that showed AMLO 10% ahead of Calderón? They should demand them too...
Oh but wait... wasn't AMLO their only PR people? their only strategist? their only pollster? Gee... maybe AMLO should demand himself to the Profeco...
Posted by: bunburina | September 1, 2006 09:43 PM
bunburina--- Just reading your post it came to me-- Of course, AMLO was in on the complo -- he conspired against himself. He needs to be put away in a dark room with a mirror so he can confront himself.
Posted by: Goyo | September 1, 2006 09:47 PM
Sow the winds and you will harvest storms, the saying goes, the right-wing is suffering that now, after the dirtiest political campaign in Mexican history, much owed to US Republican Party advisors, we all face an atmosphere of no governance, it will be difficult for López Obrador to be president, but it will the same difficult for Calderón, who is just a marionette of vested interests groups, reality goes beyond fiction, much is still to be seen, today's failure to give the state of the nation speech is sign for the times to come, let's wait until the 16 or, much better, let's be there
Posted by: depraman | September 1, 2006 09:54 PM
Goyo,
Hold your horses. You put a madman in front of a mirror and he'll hate himself like he hates us. He'll get so incredibly irate that the man is capable of harming himself like he has harmed us and our city. He might call himself paid and bought for, like he called his PRD polling station representatives. He might sit on his face, like he has done to our Zocalo.
Wait, let's get this guy to face himself, he'll sit on his ugly face and we will applaud the calisthenics. The guy can say magic, let's watch him do that magic on himself.
Posted by: rodolfo | September 1, 2006 09:58 PM
I was watching president Fox on Mexican tv, was he depicting Mexico or some other country? at moments I thought he was talking about Norway
Posted by: bored | September 1, 2006 10:08 PM
Did you guys know that what we have just witnessed today is something we should be proud of?
"Sí se pudo", gritan simpatizantes de AMLO en Zócalo
http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/372599.html
They have some weird concept of good and bad. I can imagine some pejefan choping some carrots, and then, accidentally, cut himself a finger and say: "sí se pudo!! sí se pudo!!". Well that pretty much sums up what they are doing to their political career.
Posted by: bunburina | September 1, 2006 10:09 PM
The question is whether the newly " elected" president will be able to hold the country together in the face of his highly questioned victory.
I submit that if violence is exercised to obtain consensus, Mexico will head down the path of civil strife.
A dire test of gobernability awaits whoever stays in power.
Posted by: joel b | September 1, 2006 10:14 PM
bunburina,
I hope they castrate themselves all the way to Panteon de Dolores and Lopez be the first to jump into the grave they have dug for themselves.
Can anyone see this loony perredistas running a country?
Posted by: rodolfo | September 1, 2006 10:19 PM
As a Mexican who is proud of his country, I pledge allegiance to our Nation, which is made possible by it's Institutions.
I strongly dissaprove the actions of a small, power-hungry, few, who are willing to throw all that's been built by so many real heroes who have in some cases sacrificed their own lives to lead forward our democracy trough betering our Institutions
Constitution, Presidency, IFE, Congress, Political Parties, are all powerful institutions that hold together our nation.
Lopez Obrador has demonstrated a profound disrespect to all mexicans by going agaist everything that we stand for: Democracy, Liberty, Freedom of Speech.
We don't want that for our future. We remember Porfirio Diaz. The revolution is over now. Let us live our democracy in peace.
Posted by: 2opinionated | September 1, 2006 10:35 PM
Anti-yunque (and anyone who feels like this person),
I am not here to make excuses for President Fox or the PAN or anyone else....however, President Fox is correct...there is no reason Mexico could not have grown at 7% or more during his six year term.
If the right labor and tax reforms were made as well as investment in infrastructure and education were made, Mexico could grow at 10%. From my point of view, he was to AMLO-esque in the beginning of his term...thus alienating both PRI and PRD conservatives. He was not willing to compromise on some issues to at least get half-watered down measures passed that would have started Mexico down the right path. The PRI, very angry from their loss in 2000 blocked all initiatives that did not originate with them....and since they had the largest block (I don't remember if it was a simple majority) there was nothing that President Fox could do to get the needed reforms passed. Thus no 7% growth in Mexico...be honest Anti-yunque, do you not believe that Fox's proposed reforms would have spurred economic growth? Does Calderon's current economic proposals not make sense either? They do to me....why don't they to you Anti-yunque?
I'm not sure what you mean by foxilandia...I am assuming it is a reference to Fox and his supporters living in a dream world...but that was not the case. They knew the realities, as all the current PRD congressmen do, and were not able to overcome the PRI and sometime PRI-PRD alliance to shoot down all of his major reforms. That is why I find it disgusting that all the PRD congressmen (as well as you Anti-yunque) criticize Fox (or any president of a republic) for the failures of his term. He had much non-help in getting there. If he had been able to pass all of his reforms and the economy still showed no growth, then I would agree with you and put the blame squarely on the president...but he did not get that chance.
I put much of the blame on the sore losers of the PRI for refusing to cooperate with the PAN at all costs...including the stagnation of Mexico for six years. I for one hope that the less radical factions of the PRD will cooperate with the PAN and PRI to pass Mexico's needed reforms.
Read any economic study on Mexico and you will see time and time again that the same reforms are recommended to spur growth in Mexico...the very same reforms that Fox (and now Calderon's job) tried to pass in Congress. It doesn't take a genius to realize that the economic failures of Mexico over the last six years are directly attributed to the opposition parties....not to Fox simply because he happened to be president at the time.
Well I've said my peace,
Cheers everyone
Posted by: RPM | September 1, 2006 10:41 PM
Sighhh... man, the few AMListas left aren't even challenging, like that kid Anti-Orc or whatever fantasy he's afraid will come and eat him while he's sleeping. I mean, he just hasn't the capacity to notice that almost no one lives in Foxilandia, we just don't want AMLO and he's proving us right.
I remember saying to my wife a couple of months ago "well, if AMLO wins so be it, lets hope he does a good job" but now... I think even Krauze's and Sanchez Susarrey (I mean, you put me in a positon of defending Susarrey for Pete's sake!!!) fell short with their descriptions.
Here's a prediction: in 3 years, the PRD will lose half the congress seats it currently has. Their only hope is to ditch AMLO soon.
Posted by: Ariel R. Orellana | September 1, 2006 10:46 PM
Ariel,
I am watching in rapture as events unfold. One man's personality disorder is proving contagious.
There is no "crisis" and no real danger to the republic. What we have here is a buffonery and teenage exuberance that is intrascendent. All fire and brimstone but no effective blood spilling on either side.
Despite the imaturity you can sense a willingness to show but not act on the foolishness. Bad manners do not bring down a republic. It makes the fools look foolish and that is all.
Posted by: rodolfo | September 1, 2006 11:01 PM
So, is this the way it's going to be? Whenever a liberal candidate loses an election it was in some way "stolen"? Liberals just can't believe the majority of the people don't see things their way.
Posted by: Juan | September 1, 2006 11:20 PM
First of all, I think this is a great forum, very informative. It really has been the best source of information about both events and opinions surrounding this very important election.
I am struck by the vastly different perceptions of the election in Mexico from here in D. C. Here, the general feeling among people who have been following the election is that it was clearly stolen. Most people that I've talked to seem to feel that if the recount had really come up clean, the results would have been published immediately. And everyone agrees that given the closeness of the election there should have been a recount -- the reason the PAN is resisting is because they have something to hide.
Also, the general feeling is that one should put too much faith in all those pro-Calderon endorsements from newspapers --they're just following the advertising money.
What's particularly striking is that the PAN supporters seem to feel that the perception of fraud is a result of the actions of Lopez Obrador's supporters. Others may have a different experience, but my experience is that that's not true. Most of the people here are largely unimpressed by the whole civil disobedience thing. What is creating the perception of a fraudelent election is the refusal to recount the votes and openly present results. My impression (and its just my impression) is that the PAN is actually losing the battle of perceptions outside of Mexico.
Of course, this is just my experience. I'd be very interested to read about other people's experiences.
Posted by: On the Fence | September 1, 2006 11:35 PM
Unfortunately, this crisis is unfolding into the traditional comedy of the "Banana Republic" and a "people's Junta". What's next, yet another Mexican civil war? And how long will the American public tolerate such a violent civil war on our own doorstep before stepping in? Especially with tens of millions of American citizens of Mexican-heritage, and legal and non-legal Mexican citizen-residents here north of the Border-lands.
Next time it won't be at the cost of losing just Texas, New Mexico, Arizona and California.
Posted by: Ted in NJ | September 1, 2006 11:55 PM
Juan,
That isn't fair; conservatives also cry foul when they lose close elections. Here are four examples:
(1) 1994 Maryland Governors race: Losing Republican candidate cried foul and dredged up a list of dead people who had voted and thousands of "unregistered" voters. She was very embarassed when the Washington Post found her dead voters within 48 hours. Also the unregistered voters turned out to be voters who had moved in the past year and hadn't gotten around to updating their voting information.
(2) 2002 - South Dakota Senate Race: GOP went so far as to submit forged affidavits alleging fraud among Indian voters.
(3) 2004 - Washington State Gubenatorial Race: GOP tried to disqualify ballots from King County; judge ruled there was no evidence of fraud.
(4) 2004 Venezuela - Regardless of how one feels about Hugo Chavez, he DID win the election by a large margin (and he actually did implement a number of serious protections against fraud in the election; random sampling of ballots and random designation of those ballots into ballot boxes really does make it harder to commit fraud and easier to detect it).
The reality is that there is no such thing as a foolproof election; there will always be some fraud. A corollary to this is that parties that lose a close election will always be able to convince themselves that they were cheated, unless mechanisms are in place to ensure transparency.
A huge part of the problem in the recent Mexican election is that it doesn't contain very much transparency. It creates conditions which actually make it easier for a losing candidate to justify the belief that he or she was cheated.
Regardless of how one feels about Lopez Obrador and his claims that he won the election, his complaints about lack of transparency in the election are valid.
Posted by: On the Fence | September 2, 2006 12:04 AM
As a third generation Mexican American ,
You Mexicans suk just like those dumb ass americans that voted for dubya.
Viva Revolution!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by: Jesus | September 2, 2006 12:10 AM
"Regardless of how one feels about Lopez Obrador and his claims that he won the election, his complaints about lack of transparency in the election are valid."
You have got to be kidding. What? Are your friends too lazy to check each and every ruling from the tribunal, published on their web site? They don't have enough time to check each and every polling station's result, available on the internet too? Because they don't then if follows that there is no transparency? At least AMLO supporters took the time to look through them, how do you think they came up with the numbers in the first place? I feel their numbers are heavily biased but the fact is they got the chance to do so PRECISELY BECAUSE THE WHOLE PROCESS IS TRANSPARENT.
Posted by: Ariel R. Orellana | September 2, 2006 12:16 AM
Now we noticed that there were no massive confrontation. The obsolete repressive apparatus set at El Congreso de la Unión represented a clear strike to the machiavellian plans of the oligarchies who lead the coup: PAN and closed right wing supporters.
AMLO, once again, showed no intention about leading a violent struggle. He did not send the masses to a danger confrontation against army´s gorillas (some of them trained in the USA).
But, of course, oligarchies own the Media, so they pretend to show a different story, something alike Fox-y-land, or Disney-land?
It`s a pity that Ceci does not cite mexican constitution and electoral federal laws. It would be so simple to show that Fox has not respected the Constitution, niether FeCal. It also would be so easy to show that if an electoral box has been violated (openned without the explicit authorization of the Tribunal Electoral), it must be cancelled. Now the judges are not respecting the law.
Everybody knows that in Mexico there is no legal principle or rule of law. That social order benefits, at least, to oligarchies, and at the end, to some imperialist oligarchies in the USA.
So the struggle is not only a national one, and it is not violent.
Peace is the principle of the left politicians; violence is the aim of the PAN.
I hope you mexican citizens practice your rationality and consider facts.
Posted by: Gorgojín | September 2, 2006 12:24 AM
It has often happened in these comments that Democrats from the USA have expressed sympathy or support toward AMLO after displaying bitterness toward the results of elections in the States that favored Republicans. While it is true that AMLO would be as anti-USA as any Liberal could possibly want a foreign leader to be, such people should do some research into what the man planned to do if he had been elected. His administration would have taken Mexico directly into a deeper economic crisis than we have now, for starters.
Posted by: Greg | September 2, 2006 12:31 AM
Gorgojin: Such rationality as was on display in the Congress tonight? Rationality like throwing out vague conspiracy theories with no evidence to support them? Rationality like calling for a parallel government? Losing people their jobs? Depressing tourism in vacation season? Making points by screaming simplistic sound-bite rants.
Posted by: Greg | September 2, 2006 12:44 AM
A lot of the people outside of Mexico did not perceive the profound democratic culture revolution that has taken place over the last years; it's one of those invisible news stories that never gets much reporting. It's easy to stereotype a country with such a tainted history of vote fraud, but it just doesn't represent the actual situation.
Posted by: K. Vronna | September 2, 2006 12:53 AM
To see all gringos talking about "respect of the insitutions" when fraud has a long history in Mexico, started with the PRI and continued to these days.
It's also funny to see how all the "established media" get hysterical about the possibility of a left-leaning candidate winning across the border.
As a German friend used to tell me "the US has moved SO far to the extreme right, that what would qualify as a center government everywhere else in the planet is now seen as 'leftist' by the Americans".
I now live in Brazil and guess what? the hysteria by the "markets" and the "finance pundits" has passed, and even they agree the world won't come to an end if Fernando E. Cardozo wins his re-election term.
Posted by: It's so funny... | September 2, 2006 12:57 AM
Ummm, is this blog caught in a time warp? You live in a Brazil ruled by Cardoso? You know, for someone who lives in Brasil you sure can't spell Brasilian names. Cardozo-Cardoso, Enrique-Henrique, who cares?
Posted by: Ariel R. Orellana | September 2, 2006 01:27 AM
It's so funny to see someone who thinks Fernando E. Cardozo is running for reelection. If you happen to know a Fernando E. Cardozo, please, introduce him to me because I only know Fernando Henrique Cardoso, former president of Brazil.
Oh, and by the way, the current president of Brazil and the one running for reelection is Luis Inácio Lula da Silva, who is a center-leftist ok?
Posted by: bunburina | September 2, 2006 01:39 AM
On the Fence
Interesting to get an opinion from DC that's partially impartial (I love my oxymorons).
One of the reasons for a difference in perception is the fact that people are going to be more interested in a case of wrongdoing, than of something going fine. How many times have you read a headline, and subsequent analysis, saying "Elections held in Bongo Bongo land: Everything transparent and legal". We all like to believe in scandal about other peoples failures in the political/legal world. Makes us feel better that "we may have small problems with our sysytem, but look over there..."
The fact that the election was so close would lead me to believe that this was México's first real test of having free elections. Last time around there was a general revolt against 71 years of PRI government, people from all political backgrounds just wanted them out......this time the people felt able to choose the party of their conscience, as Fox (and if nothing else he must be remembered for this) "broke the mold" of the sitting power ruling the elections in their own favour.
So a close count should be welcomed, if you were fixing the election, would you leave it as close as 240,000 votes?
You maybe aware that the model for elections used in Mexico was also the model used in Iraq (you can leave the Iraq war politics out of this discussion if you reply), it was recommended by an international body as the best model.
There is such a history prior to election 2000 in Mexico that some people cannot change their mind set, and others, just can´t accept a loss.
You´ll find like minded people at every horse racing circuit in the world, convinced "It was fixed".
"And everyone agrees that given the closeness of the election there should have been a recount -- the reason the PAN is resisting is because they have something to hide."
Was George W. Bush "trying to hide something" in the 2000 re-count? Did he really get people to fix the machines so that democrats would only punch "hanging chads" etc in Florida? In the end the courts decided, and Al Gore accepted defeat. He didn´t get his supporters to camp on Pennsylvania Avenue, block the city, threaten, (like AMLO,although quite subtlety) to wreck the nations growth. If he had closed down hotels, restaurants and businesses in DC, the people there would have kicked him and his rabble out of town themselves. Probably with their own fire-arms.
The election was re-counted, in a sample of voting stations that Lopez Obrador claimed were fixed. The judges decided any error was down to innocent human error, or bad transcription, no fraud was found. And if there had been a re-count of all 41,000,000 votes, who would you elect to do it? Lopez doesn´t even trust his own party members, having branded some of them "bought by the opposition", when they had the nerve to counter his claims of fraud. Only AMLO (as Lopez is known here) could count the votes and give a fair (to him) result.
Finally, on this point, PAN did not resist a re-count, it is not in the remit of the winning, or losing, candidates to tell the electoral tribunal what to do. That is one of the things that makes it independent. If they felt they have the right to do that, they may as well say "lets toss (flip or spin in USA?) a coin to see who´s won"
"Also, the general feeling is that one should put too much faith in all those pro-Calderon endorsements from newspapers --they're just following the advertising money."
The richest man in Mexico (and I mean Bill Gates league of richyness!) owns Telcel, Telmex (both part of the national, highly expensive phone network), and a large part of the centre of Mexico city, (due to the gift of his friend AMLO), who probably told him he would not allow any competition in his telecommunications market if he won. Guess who might be the biggest advertiser in TV, newspapers etc?
"What's particularly striking is that the PAN supporters seem to feel that the perception of fraud is a result of the actions of Lopez Obrador's supporters."
That really is getting the horse behind the cart, AMLO was adamant he had won before the election, during the count and ever after. He has cried "complot" (which is best translated as "plan by many others to put me down") He has probably been surrounded by acolytes for so long in his strongholds of the DF, and Tabasco state etc that he believes he should have walked it. He lost the election by his own actions, not by TV spots aimed against him.
"My impression (and its just my impression) is that the PAN is actually losing the battle of perceptions outside of Mexico"
Actually, having had nothing to do today, I´ve read so many articles from around the world, I have to disagree, most are saying, to sum it up....
Calderon...dignified, getting on with things , looking forward.
AMLO.......last chance saloon, rude and pointless, wants blood on the streets to give him some legitimacy.
But it´s only my opinion!
Posted by: Darth Windsor | September 2, 2006 01:41 AM
All you Fox supporters are blind to the fact that the PAN has replaced the PRI as dictator of choice for the leading business figures/drug trafficers who run the country. They knew the PRI had run its course after the Salinas brothers and their cohorts went too far. Zedillo was put in there for damage control and to oversee the implication of the this phoney new democracy. Nothing's changed, the left has been robbed again, doesn't anyone remember Salinas/Cardenas or was that a fair election too? The Fox campanign in 2000 had more cash than Al Gore, most of it illegal. Why should people trust a system just because it says we're fair and transparent. Please
Posted by: Shamed | September 2, 2006 01:43 AM
On the fence comments "A huge part of the problem in the recent Mexican election is that it doesn't contain very much transparency. It creates conditions which actually make it easier for a losing candidate to justify the belief that he or she was cheated." That is an absurd comment for this election which every international observer described as fair.
The better description I have heard in the last couple of weeks was the following:
Come sé llama la partidad de AMLO?
No es PRD, pero ahora sé llama los perdedores.
Another friend said MALO reminds him of un niño con un jugete nuevo.
The Mexican people understand the stakes here and they won't allow some two bit messianic fraud to steal their democracy.
Posted by: drtaxsacto | September 2, 2006 01:45 AM
It's a shame what happened with the Informe though. I certainly hope that the PRDistas who are in a crusade to trainwreck Mexican political institution pay for this sooner or later.
The next two weeks are going to be a pivotal time. The President-elect will probably be announced within days, but it will be anyone's guess what more stunts AMLO is willing to pull. Then of course the Sept. 16th celebrations in Mexico City...
With any hope Fox will take the momentum for at least once in his sexenio, put the plantones out of commision, and leave AMLO's "gobierno paralelo" stillborn - and maybe even AMLO in jail for a long time. Wishful thinking, I know, but how long will this nonsense go on?
Posted by: Beco | September 2, 2006 03:22 AM
Darth Windsor,
Your Lordship, I knew there was a roaring lion inside that beer rusted Oxe's fordian exterior of yours.
Your blovinating discourse manages to put into so many, many words what K.Vronna did succintly and with deadly accuracy in her most excellent 12:53 AM post.
I like her little bombshell of Zapotec wisdom and I like your truly well thought out and as always, well-written rant. I cannot agree more and mirrors exactly what K.Vronna said in as few words.
Your posting and K.Vronna's are a wonder to behold. This "crisis" has never been better told.
The only clowns on a "crisis" mode are Lopez and his wet compadres.
Posted by: rodolfo | September 2, 2006 06:27 AM
Fox and PAN = Coca Cola (poison and death)
AMLO = Life
Posted by: Andy | September 2, 2006 10:14 AM
Abajo Coca Cola Fox y Pan
Arriba el futuro
Posted by: Andy | September 2, 2006 10:15 AM
Everybody has been focusing on the "rabble" in the streets, but there is little or no talk of the reasons why they believe that there was election fraud.
Why doesn't any news outlet actually give us the details about the nature of the alleged fraud? This is what I have been able to glean from fringe sources (I'd love to see some bona fide MSM research though!):
Apparently (although you are hard pressed to find this through MSM), throughout 90% of the election, exit polling and early returns were consistant (polls roughly matched returns) and showed Obrador ahead. During the last portions of the election suddenly while the exit polling stayed consistant, the election results no longer matched the exit polling. In many areas where people were reporting 60% support, Caldaron came out with 99% of the votes collected through those stations.
Even more telling, the results from the final stations contained EXACTLY the number of votes needed to give the election to Fox's chosen. There were also some questions that election returns for some of the questionable polling stations didn't come back until Caldaron/Fox knew the number of votes needed to give achieve victory. At the last minute, that number somehow arrived. Statisticians have indicated that the voting patterns for the final hours of polling are statistically impossible - and statistically inconsistant with the rest of the election.
These are the ballot boxes that the opposition wants to see: The ones where the "winners" got 99% of the vote - or the number of votes didn't match the number of people who apparently used the stations. The courts have refused to look at either issue. Just like the US courts refused to check out the same issues in Ohio (tens of thousands more votes than voters through some stations).
I'm not saying the election was stolen, but nobody in power seems to want to look at the questions. It appears that Mexico has embarked on another 75 years of "one party" rule. Fox didn't liberate Mexico, he simply took power for his own group to dominate. Like the Mexican GOP - anyone remember Florida (party-line court vote to ignore the election results and certify the GOP Prez)?
Posted by: KGB | September 2, 2006 10:52 AM
KGB,
I lost you in the third paragraph of your encyclopedic forensics in fraud analysis.
I was about to leave, so I will be back and tangle with your little house of cards conspiracy theory in just a little while.
I will dissect it and bring light to your obfuscating and nonsensical speculations.
A veritable house of cards, your mighty fortress erection. Likewise, fresh winds of democratic realism will blow away your doubts, speculation by speculation, argument by argument, you will be set on the straight and narrow, amigo/a.
Con permiso.
Posted by: rodolfo | September 2, 2006 11:08 AM
KGB, how about some citations from credible sources? It seems AMLO's only real "evidence" is that he is a self-involved crybaby and won't accept the fact that a plurality of citizens didn't endorse his promise of utopia.
Posted by: RC | September 2, 2006 11:18 AM
On the fence:
Personally, I am inclined to agree with many of your assessments, except the one in which you say that the feeling "here in DC" is that the election was clearly stolen. That is definitely not my impression - and I am someone who personally feels that it was. My impression of the impressions here in DC is that most people believe PAN won and are somewhat dismissive of AMLO. This is DEFINITELY true of our media. They actively want the PAN guy to have won. That much is palpably obvious and I can't believe you don't pick up on it.
To the other one who writes in and says "So a close count should be welcomed, if you were fixing the election, would you leave it as close as 240,000 votes?" To some that's close, to others not close at all. Maybe folks in Florida (2000) would say it's not at all close compared to what they went through (500 votes), or Chicago (1960) would not either.
Posted by: Vye | September 2, 2006 11:31 AM
tic,tac;tic,tac;tic,tac.
Onky few days and we have "presidente electo". Beatiful. Lopez Obrador sera "presidente legitimo" pero de la Casa de la Risa en......La Chontalpa, Tabasco.
Posted by: Eduardo Valle. | September 2, 2006 12:06 PM
KGB asks why the MSM has not highlighted the alleged fraud. He goes on to comment that "Apparently (although you are hard pressed to find this through MSM), throughout 90% of the election, exit polling and early returns were consistant (polls roughly matched returns) and showed Obrador ahead." I am not sure what kinds of meds he seems to have come off but let me offer a couple of comments. First, anyone who has worked around elections over time understand that over an evening results shift. Part of that is based on which precincts are counted. For example, in California, traditionally absentee ballots are counted first (although in the last few years that is not entirely true) and absentees were more likely to vote for the GOP. So in early returns, even in democrat districts, GOP candidates would traditionally rack up seemingly insurmountable leads. In the end they would lose - but that was not fraud not timing. Second, in any counting system there are logistical issues. Normally, ballots are counted in the precinct (casilla in Mexico) and then transmitted to a central place. Traffic and other things can change when votes are counted. Third,exit polling is noticeably an inexact science. A lot depends on which precincts are used and whether the questions asked actually can give you a good response. There are numerous examples of exit polling making huge errors. The exit polls in a close election would be tremendously variable. Fourth and finally, every independent observer who participated in this election said the vote was among the cleanest in history, in any country. That is a fine comment on the role of the IFE. Each of the precincts had party representatives witness the count and then sign off on the results.
This was a close election. 240,000 votes is not a huge margin. But sometimes the electorate is divided. From all of my discussions in Mexico coming up to the election - it was my distinct impression that it would be a very close election. If KGB wants to look for a conspiracy he might look to the third place candidate. I suspect that if Mercado had not been in the race AMLO might have had a better shot. I had a couple of younger friends who went with Mercado because of her social issues stances. Had all those votes gone to AMLO he would have won. But as in all elections - it was what it was.
The key fact, which AMLO does not want to admit, is that he lost. But when you think you are a messiah you don't have to mind yourself with minor things like expressions of popular votes.
Posted by: Drtaxsacto | September 2, 2006 12:40 PM
First, I would like to thank everyone for their polite and constructive replies.
Second, I would like to make it clear that as a US Citizen, I have no desire to express an opinion regarding whether there was fraud or who should be president of Mexico -- that's a decision best left to Mexicans.
My sole motivation for participating in this forum is that I am genuinely unhappy with the endorsements given Calderon by the Washington Post, Wall Street Journal and New York Times. They set a precedent which could be applied to US elections, and that distresses me. For I think there is one overriding issue that is being ignored: Who owns the ballots, the people or the state?
I feel very strongly that the answer to this question must be the people. If that's true, then Lopez Obrador has an absolute right to have the ballots re-examined and neither the Mexican government nor the Washington Post has the right to deny him. He has challenged the election, said he doesn't trust the results and has demanded to see the ballots. This right should not be predicated upon him meeting any additional standards.
While I respect the opinions of those people on this line who have expressed the opinion that the recent election was transparent and fair, I'm afraid I must respectfully disagree. I think there are numerous examples where the recent election has failed to meet accepted standards for transparency and verification.
Despite the closeness of the vote, 90% of the votes in the election have never been recounted.
Although there appear to be tens of thousands of casillas having significant administrative or other errors, the IFE made no effort to evaluate either the cause or the magnitude. An audit of these discrepancies should have occurred IMMEDIATELY after the election, not six weeks later.
On July 3, the PREP reported that 99% of the votes had been counted, even though the IFE knew full well that there were 2.5 million votes that could not be included due to errors in the actas. This mistake should have been corrected immediately, not 36 hours after the election. (I might also add that if this was a mistake in the PREP software, it is a VERY odd error for tested software -- a full investigation by independent experts should also have been performed).
The TRIFE annulled approximately 150,000 votes (4% of the recount total) and then declared the election valid. The results of the recount should have been published IMMEDIATELY upon completion of the recount.
In fact, the entire concept that the ballots should be protected so carefully and then NEVER examined again constitutes a fair lack of transparency in and of itself.
Let me empasize that none of these issues, either singularly or collectively constitutes fraud. My intention in posting is not to criticize the Mexican election, but to criticize the Washington Post and the rest of the US Press for endorsing the desires of their advertisors rather than upholding the people's right to a full inspection of the votes. I would hope that they will do better in the next US election, but I have scant hope.
Posted by: On the Fence | September 2, 2006 12:45 PM
Gorgojín commented "Everybody knows that in Mexico there is no legal principle or rule of law. That social order benefits, at least, to oligarchies, and at the end, to some imperialist oligarchies in the USA."
Not everyone knows this. Anyone who has observed Mexico since the 1988 election is that there has been a determined effort to make the electoral system much more transparent. The creation of the IFE is but one example. A large number of Mexicans have worked very hard to create a better system.
He also comments "So the struggle is not only a national one, and it is not violent. Peace is the principle of the left politicians; violence is the aim of the PAN." What nonsense. Lopez Obrador and his followers are itching to have a repeat of 1968 - they would then protest the "martyrs" but the times are different. And the opposition understands his tactics. Why is it not violent to disrupt the lives of thousands of people at random? Why is it not violent to prevent the President of the republic from fulfilling his constitutional duty?
Posted by: drtaxsacto | September 2, 2006 12:53 PM
Calderón says "we the peaceful people will prevail over the violent ones", gimme a break, the one who has been promising "though hand" calls himself and his partisans "the peaceful people", the ones who promoted the worst hate campaign on the Mexican media, when the worst liers call the other liers then something is wrong, something stinks, we have reached the last state of sophism, it s time for another revolution, and this could be indeed a peaceful one, if possible
Posted by: depraman | September 2, 2006 12:58 PM
Ceci, your prejudiced coverage of the Mexican political upheaval is symptomatic of the rather shabby intellect of the western postmodern post-colonial left. Keep up the prejudiced work, while your readers laugh behind your (and WaPo's) backs.
AMLO received only 1 out of 3 votes, because he had no economic program. He refused to come on a TV debate and he made sure his anti-democratic agenda was well hidden. Until the left can develop a program to reduce corruption and create wealth, nobody in Mexico will seriously listen to them. This will probably never happen because the left deep down does not agree to civil and open society, and has no idea how to help the poor, except for stealing from the middle class.
Posted by: Karim | September 2, 2006 01:39 PM
"Until the left can develop a program to reduce corruption and create wealth, nobody in Mexico will seriously listen to them", true in the meanwhile we'll keep listening to the Mexican right, whose program aims at increasing poverty and corruption through our sacred institutions.
Posted by: depraman | September 2, 2006 01:46 PM
Depreman, PAN is certainly not in favor of "increasing poverty". Again, I refer to the rather deficient intellect of the post-colonial left, when they make such generalized claims. And PAN is the only party seeking elimination of corruption and state rentiership entitlements. The level of corruption in the Mexico City administration is phenomenal.
To combat corruption, you need market oriented policies at the micro and macro levels, underpinned by social-democratic support of the poor. Now tell this to AMLO and his army of ideologic paid goons engaged in protection rackets and power mongering.
Posted by: Karim | September 2, 2006 02:01 PM
KGB,
I see some heavies are in full attack mode. I have invited my friend Orellana to do the honors.
Should he not blind you with his brilliance
I will have no recourse but to squash your protoparanoia with my own little finger.
drtaxsacto,
Your blinding clarity is 100% A OK!
If your questions had ready answers we wouldn't be having any fun. Lopez is what in my teenage years we called "pandillero", a streetwise little thug who got his way with heavy fist pounding.
I remember one particular character from that long ago time called "El Chile". He had Lopez' charisma and ready to pounce, hair trigger temper. He wasn't so much admired but feared.
Lopez is "EL Chile" of Mexico's contemporary times. Many fools have joined his cause and to put but one example, Ricardo Monreal closely in cahoots with Lopez lost the PRD senate leadership to a rival.
On The Fence,
You can opine as far and wide as you like. Anything and everything you say is political, as far as this blog is concerned. This little comedy of an election should serve as a blueprint for all elections.
IFE is a PEOPLE'S confederation, paid by all Mexicans and run by ordinary mexican citizens. The tamper-proof safety valves in the process are a wonder of self-evident simplicity.
The electoral tribunal is savvy and has a full 10 years of electoral madness experience.
What we are doing here is an excercise in futile hypothesizing. The good people of TEPJF (Electoral Tribunal) are hard at work reviewing the election comings and goings and will soon give their final irrevocable opinion.
We can guess all we want about the grade the TEPJF will give this election or who they will name the winner. These Magnifficent 7 hold the report card and soon we will all know the result of their pointy perusal, Lopez, et al notwithstanding.
Posted by: rodolfo | September 2, 2006 02:04 PM
What happened with the Fox speech attempt is the sort of thing that happened recently in the Ukraine. What's going on in the Zocalo is exactly the same as in the Maidan. The big difference of course is the reaction of the major media in the West. It's like night and day.
I guess that when Soros is not financing the protesters, when the International Republican Institute is not organising the protesters, when money from the US Embassy is not paying for concerts and free food in the square, then it's not a grass-root democratic uprising but instead is an evil attempt to start a civil war.
Of course in one case the EU gave the election thumbs down while giving the one in Mexico a thumbs up. In the first case, the EU had already decided that if Yushchenko didn't win, it was fraud. The second observer mission was run by a close ally of the PAN party, one of the officials for the Spanish right wing party.
Observer missions so often see what they want to see. But still, the EU, the powerful West rules, and that's what matters. What's good for the Western powers is good for Ukraine, and for Mexico.
This is yet another example of the lack of principles, that "the ends justify the means", which is the last resort always of those who want to rule the world.
Posted by: R | September 2, 2006 02:29 PM
Peaceful PRD vs violent Mexican institutions? Is that the line we are going to see now?
Look at the images from last night-- thugs wearing masks attacking the police line. One guy even used a crude welding flame from an aerosol can to try to burn through the steel fence. Others were hurling big rocks.
Inside the chamber, the PRD legislators justified their clownish behavior in blocking the informe by condemning the police cordon around San Lazaro.
How could they talk with a straight face about this? Surely any reasonable person could see the reason for tight security. Surely any Mexican citizen seeing the violent demonstrators would think,"Thank God the police blocked those people from getting in and attacking the president."
Now, as for the fraud allegations-- In any election, anywhere, there will be mistakes. These only become a big issue when there is a very close election. Then the question becomes whether these were deliberate, orchestrated errors, in other words fraud, or just common slips and goofs. That is why Mexico has the tribunal. The magistrates look at the complaints from all parties, they examine the evidence and they determine if there was a widespread problem or just simple errors. The magistrates did their job and they ruled that there was no fraud. That is that. Case closed.
But Little Lopez and his mad followers have something else in mind. Their plan is for violent revolution. It is time for people who have been supporting him to wake up. Some Mexicans who voted for AMLO have already backed off, as can be seen in the recent polls, but what is needed now is for the decent, reasonable people in the PRD to come forward and reject the tactics of Little Lopez, the messiah who has proven that he is, IN FACT, a danger to Mexico.
Posted by: Goyo | September 2, 2006 02:48 PM
If the current situation in Mexico is analogous to the happenings in the Ukraine, what do they call the citizen-run independent electoral commision in the Ukraine?
Posted by: K. Vronna | September 2, 2006 02:52 PM
It´s easy to understand that the majority of the opinions expressed in this e-forum are from the point of view of the right or conservative people.
Most of the poor people in Mexico don´t have access to this electronic joint. And many who have, like me, don´t speak or write english very well.
That is one of the structural facts that silence the voice from bellow, from the "ignorants", the "blind followers", and a lot of prejudices expressed by the proto-fascist leaders of PAN.
I make a call for those in the USA and the rest of the world, to listen to the rational arguments, sustained on facts, not in mythical thinking.
The World Bank, ironically, shows in their reports about Mexico, a very different picture from that paninted by Foxy-land. Poverty has grown, and unemployment too.
And there is another importan point:
AMLO and its team, represent the only one viable path to a civilized democratic turn. The "ex-ante" coup comitted by the right, is feeding the real violents sector of the country: that radical left, like EPR, which don´t believe in a peacefull transition to igualitarian development in Mexico.
One of their thesis is: formal democracy finds its limits when the political-economic systems is betrayed by a redistributive turn. So, they say, guerrilla fighting is the only path.
That is not the vision of PRD and many others sectors in the left. We don´t want violence, we have struggle peacefully to develop our country with a sense of social justice and respect to the Constitution.
FeCal´s attitude supporting FOBAPROA, nepotism, the selling to USA of strategic basic resources and the reppressive system he always promotes, is a call to those radical sectors, "guerrilleros trasnochados".
AMLO does not represent those violent sectors.
Unfourtunately, FeCal does represent the violent sector in the right (neo-sinarquismo=neo-fascismo).
I wonder that this right-wing violent plan is backed by Bush, a real criminal war.
Our path is the peace and rational thinking. Is not that irrational feeling about "danger, danger, and danger" without argumentation.
Our weapon is peace, that deep feeling and attitude showed by Gandhi, Luther King and Mandela.
Posted by: Gorgojín | September 2, 2006 04:11 PM
to drtax...
Ask poor people if thei feel that mexican lawyers are with the richs or whith citizens.
Ask indigenous people is the law is equal to mestizos and to indigenous people.
The great democratic advanced experienced in Mexico, is debt mostly to PRD, and also to the now marginalized sector from PAN, the Maquio heiress.
Now Fox government has betrayed democracy.
If democratical elected governments are USA government lackeys, like that in Ucrania, they enjoy international recongition; if not, they are from "Imperio del mal", "Darth Vader followers... ja ja ja ja ja ja
Posted by: Gorgojín | September 2, 2006 04:19 PM
Gorgojín, your English is fine, but you can also express yourself in Spanish here, many posters speak it as well.
I wish I could say the same for your ideas. The unemployment rate in Mexico is quite low, between 3-4%. It is certainly better to be seeking work in Mexico than in that statist paradise of Venezuela, where unemployment is nearly 10%.
AMLO just promises more statism, which is just a mirage of false promises. People want to believe the state can give them everything, but it can't. Do you want to continue to have a protected monopoly sector that is run by a small group of unions and bureaucrats while the rest of the country produces real wealth in the formal private sector and the informal sector struggles because so many resources are sucked into the deadbeat public sector?
Posted by: RC | September 2, 2006 04:22 PM
Gorgojin, what do you smoke? I would really like to try some... You made a few comments above:
"Most of the poor people in Mexico don´t have access to this electronic joint. And many who have, like me, don´t speak or write english very well." Really? Internet access is as cheap as 5 Pesos per half hour, and internet cafe's are ubiquitous. Because of migration to the US, more poor than you might think speak English. Furthermore, most of the psuedo-intellectuals in places like the UNAM speak English because, when they are not burning American flags in front of the US embassy, they are inside the same embassy brownosing American officials for student visas and becas to American universities.
Go out and actually talk to the poor. You might learn a thing or two.
"AMLO and its team, represent the only one viable path to a civilized democratic turn" Really? Democratic? How would you qualify the recent gubernatorial election in Chiapas? Was that democratic? Were state resources used? Were votes bought by the PRD? Is illegal squatting on Reforma democratic? How do you define the word "democratic"? Does it mean that the man with the most votes wins, or, to you, does it mean that the PRD must always win or the election is not "democratic"?
"Unfourtunately, FeCal does represent the violent sector in the right" He does? Can you please name ONE example of violence from the right? And please do not blame drunk drivers on Reforma on the PAN. If I knew how to contact you, I would be almost willing to offer you money for a valid example, because I do not think you can. Has the PAN engaged in any of the following:
Threatening people in the DF who have politically incorrect bumper stickers on their cars?
Physcally attacked representatives of the News Media?
Illegally closed any streets to the general public?
Attacked the federal police with rocks, pipes, and aerosol can flamethrowers?
Called for the army to refuse orders?
Prohibited access to the zocalo to those who disagree politically with them.
Called any patriotic Mexicans "traitors" to democracy?
Do violent groups like the Atencos, the CGH, the EZLN, APPO, or the Francisco Villas support the PAN or the PRD? What does it say about an organization that has the support of groups such as these?
If, During AMLO's fantasy convention on Sept 16, do you think violence would occur if any PANistas showed up to exercise their right under article 39 to participate in the convention. If violence occurs, who do you think would instigate it?
Finally, you say "Our path is the peace and rational thinking" Is it? Never mind whether it was peaceful, do you think what happened last night was rational? Will that convince Mexicans to support AMLO, or will it convince them that he really is crazy.
Do you have a "rational" answer to the numbers in the latest Reforma poll, or do you believe that these are false?
Please respond, I am waiting anxiously for examples of PAN violence...
Posted by: Jerry B | September 2, 2006 04:45 PM
AMLO have to decide if he is going to be Revolutionary or Institutional, he can't be both otherwise he is the incarnation of the escense of the old party, "Institutional Revolutionary" = PRI! remember that Pri was founded by Caudillos of the Revolution refunding institutions destroying the old ones, Mexico deserves much better than that.
Posted by: A. Ramos | September 2, 2006 04:47 PM
Dear readers, if the election wasn't at least partially fraudulent then why do they resist and avoid a total recount at all costs? Mexico has a long and proud history of fraudulent elections, since before the PRI days. The PAN government of Fox and Calderon will spend more money in putting police in the field to keep Mexico "safe" than they would have spent on a real and complete recount. I mean the man had 8000 riot police at San Lazaro yesterday! Mexico is a truly great country, both in geography, history and most of all the people. But politics have always been rather tragic in the end for the people, from the conquest to the independence to the revolution to the present day. AMLO will destroy the economy. Calderon will sell it to US and foreign business men. Hard choice, isn't it. I am an American, a Latin American Studies graduate and lived in Mexico for 4 years. The country has an amazing cultural history. A damn shame that Wal-Mart is the number one single employer in Mexico. Wal-Mart does such a good job at protecting small town economiesin the US, I just have the feeling that they will do a knock-out job of preserving the essence of Mexican culture. My experience is that PANistas would sell thier cultural heritage to have a semblance of North American culture. This is the same type of self-hating, malinchista attitude that has kept Mexico down for literally centuries. If Calderon won, recount completely the votes, and then AMLO will be even more of a heel than he is now, case closed. But then why would they not recount, because they won, even if narrowly, by using age old and well developed election manipulating techniques. Another thing, who doesn't believe that the US and the Republican party hasn't put mountains of pressure on Fox and the PAN govenrment of Mexico to keep AMLO and any and all leftists out of power. They are having enough fun with Chavez, Evo and Castro, the latin american axis. I am sure the US would do ANYTHING to prevent that type of leftist leader on thier southern border. As for the fears of a Mexican revolution, well fat chance. If things keep up this way, AMLO and followers will be beaten,jailed and raped by the PFP like those folks in Atenco. All in all, the faith in the new mexican democracy is a joke. I love Mexico and I would love to see the Mexican people get a government that treats them well, for once. But after Atenco and this election, well its as if the PAN displaced the PRI just to play the same old dirty game. Even if the election isn't fixed, and the PAN is just too righteous and snotty to afford the Mexican people undisputable proof of thier victory, did they really have to take us back to the tactics of Tlatelolco in '68? Which reminds me, those riot troops are not robocops, some are good outstanding people. But many because of the age old culture of injustice and repression in Mexico and truly brutes without respect for human right at all. They make LA cop's beating of Rodney King look like a carousel ride. Whoever really won, the Mexican people have lost, because the "democratic revolution" was mutated into the same oldthing as always. It's a mexican tradition after all, from the independence to the revolution and beyond. A few notes- K. Vronna, if I remember correctly, the PT(Partido de Trabajo) was aligned with the PRI, not the PRD only 2 years ago. Goyo, I already mentioned my perception of the so called "Robocops, and I am sorry to say that I don't buy all the stuff that PANistas say about maintaining "law and order." It's all about politics and control. That's it. PAN and AMLO are playing a really big game to see who wins, just like the desafuero game, for those who remember, and it's all at the expense of the Mexican people. And I unfortunately agree with antiyunque and depraman being taking 40 years back and the influence of Republican election advisors, respectively. It's cute- Fox got elected with US businessmen money, Calderon with Republican advisors? Whats next? Last of all I would like to thank you, Mrs. Connolly on a thoughtful well written article that has sparked this interesting series of comments.
Viva el pueblo de Mexico! porque es el unico verdadero Mexico!
Posted by: Tex Drifter | September 2, 2006 04:50 PM
Gorgo, you also made this rather fantastic complaint: "the selling to USA of strategic basic resources" By this I am going to go out on a limb and assume you are talking about oil. What exactly do you propose that Mexico do with the oil? Drink it?
Posted by: Jerry B | September 2, 2006 04:54 PM
Tex Drifter, great, a few years of college and you are the one true expert on the subject. When you were in college, between protests and sit ins, did you find a time to take any basic economics courses? Because you say the following"
"A damn shame that Wal-Mart is the number one single employer in Mexico" Wal-Mart has close to a million employees in Mexico, who, unlike in the US are paid above the (admittedly crappy) prevailing wages. What would happen to them if Wal-Mart went away? I know you do not really care because money worries have probably never been a worry for you in your university cocoon, but they represent a million human beings that WE, not you in the US would have to deal with if they lost their jobs.
Posted by: Jerry B | September 2, 2006 04:55 PM
Gorgojin,
This is the kind of peace your brothers love to flaunt:
Quiero agradecer las infinitas respuestas y el apoyo total a esta nueva causa, he recibido mucha información del pinche delincuente de Victor Hernández así como muchas personas que se han ofrecido a rastrearlo y traernos fotos, incluso gente cercana a él que han optado por desertar de su causa, sin embargo piden dinero para tal material, lo siento no pagamos nada y si lo quieren donar adelante. Recordemos como actúa este pinche criminal cobarde de Victor Hernández al publicar información de quienes no piensan como él, Carlos Espejel, el webmaster de antipeje.net, periodistas, empresas, etc... Ahora le toca a él y le volvemos a recordar lo siguiente: Victor, te estamos buscando cabrón, cuídate las espaldas y piénsala 2 veces antes de confiar información a gente cercana a ti. Esto apenas comienza y ya nadie lo para........
Victor's sin: excersing his freedom of speech rights.
Get real, pal. You are dreaming if you think Lopez and amigos are really, really nice. They are nut cases with an attitude.
I would study greatness closer to home. Juarez was an ignorant shepherd that spoke no Spanish. Did he go about telling a sob story or did he get with the program and succeeded like few ever have in Mexican history. Juarez is my kind of juarista, not Lopitos and his cronies.
Posted by: rodolfo | September 2, 2006 04:57 PM
Gorgojín, I agree with RC, your English is as good as anybody's here on this blog. I also appreciate your point of view. You could be right in thinking that the violent elements will emerge if they see AMLO being treated unfairly.
Now, from my point of view, that is one of the great sins of Little Lopez, as I like to call him. Instead of taking the high road and accepting the ruling of the tribunal, he started crying fraud right away. He did not wait for the process set up by and run by the people to do its work. By impugning Mexican institutions, without much proof to back his attacks, he has undermined confidence in the system and led many people, like you, to think something was wrong with the election.
Had there been a practical way to do a recount, I would not have been against it-- "voto por voto." But the TEPJF looked at the evidence and decided it was not necessary. I can accept that and so should AMLO.
As for your attacks on PAN and Felipe Calderon, I am not necessarily a defender of all things they say or do or propose, but I do think their ideas make more sense than the leftist, statist ideas of the PRD. You say they would sell Mexico's "strategic basic resources." What would that be, oil? That is how you make money from a resource-- you sell it on the international market. How do you think Chavez got all that money to play with? Now maybe you mean they would sell PEMEX. Not necessarily a bad idea, but not something Calderon has ever proposed. What they have proposed is a very slight modification in the current law that would allow private companies from the United States, Brazil, Spain, France--- from all over, to come in and develop resources that are in the ground or offshore, but which PEMEX is unable to reach with its limited technology. This would be a great benefit to Mexico, as it has been, by the way, for Venezuela.
That is the problem with a guy like Lopez, he talks a good talk about helping the poor and defending la patria, but what he is really doing is exploiting the poor for his own political ambition. Of course, citizen Slim would also benefit, we must not forget him.
Posted by: Goyo | September 2, 2006 04:57 PM
Dear Jerry B,
I don't think you should be so polarized over these things. The right has been violent, in the name of law and order. I don't think the response at Atenco would be accepted within any civilized country as a good way of attaining law and order. There is no excuse for what the police did to those people. Perhaps the Atencos, as you call them, had leaders with violent means such as kidnapping, but most of the people involved were kids, with inocent if misguided sense of justice. There is no excuse for the police beating and raping and otherwise violating the civil and human rights of the citizenry. Some may say that all, PAN on the federal level, PRI on the state level, and PRD on the local level, were involved. But anyone who tries to convince me that it was not some kind of revenge for Fox not being able get his airport of questionably bought land in Atenco, well, they will have some trouble. It is politics, dirty and unjust as ever. And no political group in Mexico, not the PAN, PRD, PRI, PT, Convergencia, the Verdes, nobody is doing any good or better than the others as long as they play by the old PRI rules of repression, fear and control. And to emphasize again- PAN violence = Atenco. If only because they let it happen the way it did, and probably for a lot more reasons than just that. Mexico is not a country at war, and the geneva Convention stipulates better conditions for prisoners of war. The PFP response that day sounds more like a lesson in control learned at the School of the Americas mand that is just pathetic for a country like Mexico. What where the odds there? Like 10 PFP to each protester? not including helicoptors etc. I am not saying they shouldn't have done something, but what they let happen there is what has most knocked my faith in a democratic Mexico.
Posted by: Tex Drifter | September 2, 2006 05:11 PM
I wonder what potential investors and tourists think about Mexico if they happened to catch the coverage of the PRD stunt last night. It is getting more and more difficult to stay civil in speaking to people who make this country look like the home of a bunch of bombastic third-world sloganists. To anyone from the world reading this blog who may not have visited Mexico, please believe that the majority of Mexican people - from all economic levels - are dignified, modern people.
Let's annul the elections, but all the elections, including for Congress. Then let's vote again. Here's betting PAN wins by a landslide in every contest except those in the parts of the South that can't seem to find their way into the 21rst century.
And please no lectures on poverty. Many, many people in the North have fought their way out of poverty by working hard and insisting their kids get an education. Try it and see if it works for you.
Posted by: Greg | September 2, 2006 05:22 PM
Dear Mr. Jerry B,
I appreciate and read comments of all posting including yours. Thank you for reminding me not to make the mistake of mentioning personal information about myself that could be used to fuel attacks of less tranquil readers. Your comments were read and duly noted. While I have no need to explain my economic or educational circumstances to anyone, I will state that for I am familiar with basic economics and am aware that Mexico is not in the best of economic situations. Also I have never participated in Mexican politics, not sit-ins or otherwise, as that would be illegal for a foreigner. Mr. Jerry B, you know nothing of me except for what I have told you of myself. The rest you have inferred perhaps from your own stereotypes. I do not pretend to be an expert on any subject, but have studied Mexican politics at length from very different perspectives. As for the Walmart issue, I am not saying that Walmart and the jobs they bring are innately bad. In fact I agree qith the fact that Mexico would be worse off without jobs. But as student of Mexican culture in all i'ts richness, I believe that efforts should be made to adapt Walmart to Mexico, not adapt Mexico to Walmart. I feel the same way about Walmart in the US, they should adapt to and help communities. All I am saying is that the state of economic colonization in Mexico is slightly depressing. It is too bad that there are not more Mexican nationals proud of thier heritage with money willing to invest in thier own country. I understand that Mexico is old, and that it also must be new to survive, but thier is a balance in combining new with old that is important in preserving culture.
Posted by: Tex Drifter | September 2, 2006 05:38 PM
The south has always been controlled by different factors than the north. The history of Spanish domination in the north and south left entirely different legacies. Racism has been a bigger factor in hindering development of the south more than in the north, for example. If the south can't seem to find thier way to into the 21st century, it may be because they are just out of the 19th century in some parts. Perhaps thiers is a longer road out of poverty than that of the north.
Posted by: Tex Drifter | September 2, 2006 05:47 PM
The PRD Party accomplished something else last night. Up until now people have regarded the disruptions as the product of AMLO personally, but the PRD has now purchased the brand from him.
How many of the people in the demonstrations are new to the cause? Were the hooligans at the barricades long-term PRD supporters or opportunistic career agitators taking advantage of political cover?
Those PRD politicians escalated the situation last night. They set a preced
Feedback about the blog? Questions about the election? 

Excellent coverage Cici and a fun, informative blog to read.
We've linked to a few articles and editorials slamming AMLO for calling for a parralel government, at the Mexicans and Americans Thinking Together Blog. Just when you think it's nearly over it gets more interesting.
http://mexicanosyamericanos.blogspot.com
and visit http://www.matt.org