I am due to be there tomorrow night and Friday. Are you in the press dining area (adjacent to Terrace Food Court early)?

Great analysis as always. The "real" starting pitchers have to come back! Also, what is the latest on Nick Johnson? Any way, leading with my heart, 6-3.

pitching smitching. where did you eat in St. Louis?

Nats ditch ghost of Mets
Team young, exciting, and fun
But 5 wins too much

Nice post. It's "hains" point, but whatever.

Keep up the delightful work!

I'll flip your numbers, Barry. 4-5, taking 2 of 3 from the Pirates and one each from the Dodgers and Padres. That would still be a strong showing against three above-.500 teams, two of which are red-hot right now.

4-5. 1 each from the Pads and Dodgers; 2 from the Bucs.

I've been waiting for the wheels to fall off for a while now... and depending on my mood at any particular moment, I have two scenarios...

The pessimistic me thinks that things are going to even out... 4-5 for this homestand. However, I have no argument in favor for it, except that they're due (to lose).

The optimistic me thinks that in some respects, the stars might be aligning for the Nats. They have several things going for them:

1) The thing that makes teams like LA and San Diego scary is their starting pitching. In 2005, and to some extent this year, the Nats winning formula was to stay close, wear out the starter, and feast on their bullpen. We have the bullpen to do that, and the makeshift starters have been keeping us close.

2) We've played our own division pretty well recently, and while Florida isn't a powerhouse, they can hit, and we did pretty well against them last homestand. Taking 3 of 4 from Atlanta (leading the division at the time) was pretty cool, too.

3) Barry has put a lot of information out there about the recent stats, but I suspect that the real story is the defense, where statistics don't tell the story as well. My perception is that we're getting a lot more double plays that we used to, the positioning scheme has turned gappers into fly balls, and plays like Kearns' dive and double-up play are stealing outs from the opponents... and we're making a lot fewer errors.

3) They're coming home, and perhaps people will show up for the games and make some noise (and bounce some).

I would take Barry's 5-4, but 6-3 would be cool, wouldn't it?

I think 5-4 will be the outcome of the homestand, with the Nats splitting the six games with the west coast teams and winning two of three against the Pirates. I am looking forward to seeing LA's young catcher Russell Martin play over the next three days. He is going to be a star in the NL. It will also be interesting to see how the Nats' late inning relievers deal with the Dodgers' solid pinch-hitting threats, Olmedo Saenz and Wilson Betemit. Saenz looks like a beer league softball player, but he can hit a fastball with the best of them. Betemit struggled as a starting third baseman, but seems to have found new life with his bat since taking on a lot of pinch-hitting duties. I hope Rauch and the Chief got their rest yesterday because we'll likely need them to come up big over the next few days.

Math isn't my strong suit... Liberal arts education...

7-2, sweep LA --
That's Tug's ghost, not
the Ol' Perfessor's

My gut says 4-5 but my heart says 5-4, and you gotta have heart, right?

Barry asks: "pessimistic/optimistic/realistic"

... as we know now, this team has increased confidence in itself. But we also know it will now take that confidence into confrontations with some tough opposition. There is every likelihood that a split (Barry says 5-4 is asking a lot) is doable. But I say that the answer to his original question does not totally revolve around win/loss.

... if our battered pitchers continue to take the mound when they really should be in the pen, and acquit themselves well - that is, they pitch into the sixth or seventh, get first strikes more often than not, keep the team within a couple of runs of the other guys, I'd call that successful no matter the score.

... if the guys at the plate continue to rotate by game as to who's going to take the lead on any given day, if any one of them gets hot, if they all maintain their average, I'd call that successful.

... if the pen is not overly-stretched, if the defence doesn't collapse into error-city, if Guz and Nook show some speed, I'd call that successful.

... let's face it; we all know there are more losses, more bad streaks yet to come, and if they come at the hands of the big boys as opposed to the lesser lights, I'm satisfied.

... of course, we need to know what happens tonight and tomorrow before we can truly assess this home stand.

4-5, and I would totally be content with that. Any insider scoop telling whether Nick Johnson will be back before the All-Star break? Dump Speigner.

5-4? 4-5? Those are all wishy-washy, which is fine if you want to be right, but no good if you want to win.

I'll bet on 6-3 (2 losses to the Padres, 1 to the Dodgers).

Either that or 3-6.

Oh, right. Eating in St. Louis. You know, I was staying downtown, so I just walked up Washington on Sunday night and ate at a place called the Lucas Park Grille, where I've been many times during the playoffs. Very solid. Sorry I asked for so much advice and then basically ignored it.

I'm feeling good about this homestand. Our boys are on a roll, they've got the confidence, and they're having fun. This no-pressure situation is letting them go out and beat teams they have no business beating.

I'm going 5-4. 2 from the Dodgers and Bucs, one from the Pads. Other than San Diego, the pitchers we're up against aren't terribly scary. Penny can be god awful if he doesn't have his game.

So let's cross those fingers and kick some West Coast butt.

Thanks Barry, for the update on our DL'd pitchers. I hope you will give us plenty of notice when they are sent for rehab starts. I would like to see Patterson, if possible(saw 2 out of 3 last year)or listen on the radio. A real shame that Patterson can't pitch tonight against Penny as he was "lights out" against Penny and the Dodgers on Aug. 4, 2005! Funny thing - both Penny and Patterson were in the D-backs farm system and were supposed to be the future of the team, but they ended up trading them both away. Nick Bierbrodt was the third one - whatever happened to him?

I'll want to agree with 4-5, although I really hate to say that 3-6 may be a bit more likely. I hope it'll be 1 off each of the Dodgers and Pads, and two from the Bucs, but I'm just afraid our "starters" just won't be able to keep holding things together with duct tape and magic beans like they have been.

With the current rotation:

Jason Simontacchi = Win over Bums
Mike Bacsik = Win over Bums
Micah Bowie = Loss to Bums
Levale Speigner = Loss to Padres
Matt Chico = Win over Padres
Jason Simontacchi = Win over Padres
Mike Bacsik = Win over Bucs
Micah Bowie = Win over Bucs
Levale Speigner = Loss to Bucs

Hope springs yada, yada, yada.

Swept by the Dodgers, 2/3 from Pads, 2/3 from Buccos. 4 wins, 5 losses, by my count.

Barry- Has the Post done an article recently on split allegiances? All baseball fans in this area have/had a team they supported before the Nationals came to town. Now that the team has been around for 2+ seasons, are fans ditching their old teams for the Nats? I'm tortured when the Dodgers come to town, but cheer for the Nationals so I can show my face in my season ticket section day after day.

Good point about split allegiances. Most of us locals that were born post-Senators (we do exist) gave up on the O's when Ripkin retired. He was an amazing player and could balance Angelos. So there was no conflict there.

But what about all these other fans? I have friends that are die-hard Mets, Phillies, and Cubs fans that are wild about the Nats and one of them even told me he felt like he won no matter what (last year he expressed a clear Mets preference).

8-1.

Heck, they've already surprised us more than once this season, why not continue it?

Besides, more than one of the games they won in the past month or so have come not from their hitting or pitching, but as a result of defensive errors on the opposing team that later on in an inning resulted in runs by the Nats.

They'll have plenty of time in July, August and September to stink it up.

Except for Speigner, Nats pitchers have been giving the team a chance to win every game; so as long as he is in the rotation, those are automatic losses, just as sure as Patterson pitching one game and then going back to the DL.

Nats should go 5-4, unless Young plays more than 12 innings at first: if so, make it 3-6.

Nats should go 5-4, unless Young plays more than 12 innings at first: if so, make it 3-6.

OK, just read my above post again and realized how little sense it makes. My point was, you never know when a "hot" team like the Dodgers or Padres might suddenly go into a slump.

Hey Barry, can you do something about the headline editors on the Post? This headline sucks:

Offensive Headline quote: "Acta Forced to Think"

Obviously something the Post editor doesn't do.

Does he/she think that's funny?

Nats should go 5-4, unless Young plays more than 12 innings at first: if so, make it 3-6.

Sorry all for multiple entries above; got comment reject message twice but obviously it went thru.

Why can't someone at least teach Young to play 1B offensively instead of back on his heels like he does. If Killebrew, a highschool outfielder, could go directly to the majors and learn to play both 3B and 1B, what's with this letting Young make a fool of himself.

The Nationals will almost manage to tally four wins on the homestand, but will wind up at 3 and 6 after a bullpen meltdown during an extra inning game against the Dodgers.

(If that prediction winds up accurate, I'm buying a bunch of lottery tickets and flying to Vegas.)

to dwilkins4:

A couple things... He's (Young) not a first baseman... everyone knows that... he does OK, given that fact... And... he hit .565 on the last road trip.

Anything better than 3-6 would be a plus.

To see what kind of a team we really have, we are going to have to wait until there are at least four legitimate starting pitchers available, and then see how they do.

The Rube Goldberg machinations required due to too many starters on the DL make for very entertaining baseball, but yield few clues as to how this team is going to fare under ordinary circumstances.

Thought: what if "ordinary circumstances" are unattainable this season?

6-3 on the homestand. We split the six with the west coast teams and feast on the Pirates, who are only marginally better than the Reds.

I think most people here are being much too optimistic. We've been beating bad/mediocre teams. But playing good teams is going to be a different story. Don't get me wrong, I love the team to death, but let's be real here. Padres/Dodgers pitching is going to be murder to deal with. I'll give it 3 - 6 (one each from Dodgers/Padres and 2 from the Pirates).

Anthony

Anthony, wouldn't one each from the Dodgers and Padres and two from the Pirates make is 4-5? For me, I'll take 5-4, because I am borderline recklessly optimistic. In baseball, anything is possible. Just look at the 2006 World Champions.

JohnR (Va) made an excellent point:

"To see what kind of a team we really have, we are going to have to wait until there are at least four legitimate starting pitchers available, and then see how they do."

... Barry is doing his job (well) by posting stats and ideas, then suggesting discussion points, but in this case, we are letting our hearts get the better of us, whether we expect success or failure, when we try to foresee anything meaningful.

... for this homestand, we need only continue our watching brief and pray like hell when the going gets too rough.

Where is D. Young in the lineup? Is he still hurt?

Dmitri Young: Yes, sorry. That collision on Sunday was still bothering his back, though Acta said he would likely be available to pinch hit tonight and should be in the lineup tomorrow.

Dodging history,
Acta forced to think again.
Hunches were Frank's gift.

RBI single.
tomorrow's Post headline:
"Guzman won't get it ..."

Alyssa Milano stinks. Go Giants.

Christian Guzman stinks. That is all.

Stop whining?? But ...
This is Washington.
It is our Way.

I forgot -- Tony Korheiser's show stinks.

On the other hand--
Ghosts have been known to lie.
Maybe 2-7.

Ugly, ugly game. Let's just hope it's a one off. But as I said, the Nats are playing good teams now. This might be a look at what we have to look forward to. Let's hope not though.

Anthony

haikus are so neat
but no good talking baseball
time to move along

... Simontacchi struggled hard tonight but ne did the best he could. For six innings he gave the guys a chance; he simply was no match for the bright penny.

... now we know; now we'll see how the guys respond to such an abrupt wall-slam.

... another game tomorrow; another chance to start again.

Speaking of split allegiances. I was a Braves fan since sitting near Chief Nokahoma's teepee as a kid. Moved around a lot, but always rooted for them. Moved to DC and when word got out we might get a National League team I actually said (cringe) "Great! Now I get to see the Braves here!". First matchup b/t Braves and Nats in '05 I wore my Braves T-shirt and Nats cap, ready to cheer for both and figuring everyone would understand. But with the first nice play by the Braves, I just couldn't cheer for them. That night I said a sad goodbye to the Braves and became a die-hard, one-team, NatsNut. I had to stay in the closet for awhile with my family, especially when we were threatening the division that year. But I "came out" to my family later that year and they give me a hard time. But since becoming such a Nats freak, I mean fan, I've learned so much more about baseball. Dad and brother have forgiven me now that I'm just as excited about the game as they've always been. Go Nats!

Sigh. 4-5 would be consistent with the season so far, so that's what I'll say, even after tonight.

A 6-3 is feasilble (so is 3-6), but winning 3 from Pirates is perfectly doable if the offense forgets it came home. Lowe and Hendrickson are beatbale for the Dodgers. We miss Young and Maddux against the Pads. We lose to Peavy, but could take the other 2 from the Pads. Optimistic, but reasonable if ... (and this is genious coming up here) ... if, we score more than the other team. Pitching and Hitting are the keys to the game

And, BTW Tom Paciorek did 'Keys to the Game' way better than Ray Knight does and light years better than Baylor. However, Knight was a nice change of pace this weekend. I still like Sutton, but Knight did a entertaining job. Loved the enthusiasm. The commentary was good and entertaining.

(wrote this yesterday ... apparently supposed to hit submit ... whatever)

I think 320A nailed it and the nats will go 2-7 on this homestand. Nats hitters, at rfk, facing those good pitchers? It's gonna be tough to get some wins, as Brad Penny showed last night. I hope we win more, but I think 2-7 is pretty realistic.

I agree with Manny (in the $.35 story this morning). Last night's ugly numbers not withstanding, Simontaachi seems to me to be getting a little better with each start. He could borrow Ray Miller's t-shirt ..."Work fast, throw strikes, change speed." Well, two out of three at least. It's hard to tell on the radio how much he is changing speeds. He seems to lack an out pitch. I don't know the numbers on this and I could be wrong but he seems to me to pretty often give up hits after getting ahead 0-2. Obviously, he is never going to have the kind of wicked stuff that gets guys to chase pitches in the dirt when they fall behind but he ought to be able to get them to chase something.
Put me down as another one who lost interest in the Orioles when Cal Junior retired. Sad. Very sad. Baltimore is a great baseball town, one of the very best in my opinion. They deserve an owner who either understands the game or understands that he does not understand the game and gets out of the way of people who do.

Listened to Ray Knight all weekend and was really glad that he was only temporary. He talks too much. Reminds me of a chatty-Kathy doll. Much prefer the regular guys.

Yankees - 21 Wins
Nationals - 21 Wins

The Yankees are still thinking about the post-season. We're debating 3-6 vs. 5-4 homestands. Why not set our sights higher? Sure Yankees fans are delusional, and no, we don't have Clemens suiting up for us on Monday, but record wise, their hope suggests we've still got time to dream of something more.

/The Prozac went down easy this morning.

Quick! I need a pick-me-up after last night. What would Boz say?

Knight's all right, I guess. Better than Hawk Harrelson for sure.

Interesting set of predictions; I wonder if Barry's tallying them to provide us a report this afternoon.

Hope the Nats can get some runs for Bacsik, a good guy who deserves to catch a break if anyone does. What the Nats must do to give themselves a chance is to get some decent at-bats. Giving away outs in the batter's box, either through strikeouts or just not drawing deep counts, is tantamount to giving up.

The only guys in last night's lineup who seem to want to take good at-bats are Church -- notwithstanding two K's on the night -- and Schneider. I can see Guzman doing better, and he and Logan haven't been back long enough to be able to make a fair judgment (or guess). But Lopez (who shouldn't be hitting leadoff), Zimmerman, Kearns and Belliard need to keep trying to get better pitches to hit.

I sure hope da Meat comes back tonight. There's a quality hitter if there ever was one -- can his good habits rub off on some of the rest of our guys?

He's already said it, in today's column (link below). Get me, I'm improving site hits -- take that, soccer blog! Bang!! Zoom!!!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/05/29/AR2007052902149.html

---

Quick! I need a pick-me-up after last night. What would Boz say?

... no one has spoken of Zimm's error but I will. Ryan made the right choice; instead of taking the easy out at 1, he threw home. He missed, but he made the right choice. To that point, Simonize had kept them to within three runs (and Manny's also right about Jason being better than the box shows). So if Zimm gets the guy at home, there's still a chance of getting out of the inning down only three. And don't forget, altho' no one's going to say it, the runner at home was Brad Penny and if he gets into a dust-thumper with Schneider, there's every chance he gets hurt or at least off his game.

... so yeah, Ryan made the right choice. It didn't work last night but I hope he makes the same decision again.

... everyone's talking about Nickie J's return like it reminds them of Easter morning. And I hope it will be, but I don't feel that way. Nick is a good ball player, gets on an inordinate amount of times, but he is not this team's saviour.

... get back soon Nickie, but hey you, the rest of the guys: don't accept all this tommy-rot that you'll then be off the hook.

... and a question for Hendo: if you don't like Flippie in the #1 spot (and I'm not necessarily disgreeing with you) who'd you put there instead? Nookie (aka Langerhans), Guzman (but then who's #2), or someone else?

A rough night for sure. Couldn't see the game from down here in the south, but, the broadcasters indicated that the Dodgers had a lot of well placed hits, not necessarily hit that hard. That's a good spin now isn't it. Nights like that are sure to happen now and again. This is a rough homestand to be sure. 3-6 might be a positive outcome, taking 1 of 3 from all. 4-5 would be the upside. The NL West is a good division and I'd expect a shift back to reality after playing those AAA teams on the road last week. Boz had a nice column today which gives us all hope for next year and the PLAN. GO NATS .. STAY...competetive.

Natscan asks: ". . . who'd you put [leadoff] instead [of Lopez]?"

Young, Church, or Belliard, in order of preference. I want my on-base guys getting the most at-bats.

to NR...even of NJ returns this year it won't be the second coming, not even close. It will probably take him the rest of this season just to prepare for next year. I wouldn't expect his numbers for this year (per game that is) to be anything close to his lifetime stats. But, that said, getting back to form for next year is really all that matters anyway. A legitimate, everyday leadoff hitter isn't here yet. Perhaps he's in the minors, perhaps he'll arrive in a trade during the off season. Remember...the PLAN. sic'em Stan

Hendo, you cannot be serious...Young, Church or Belliard...leadoff hitters??? OK Manny, quit snickering...I said to quit snickering Manny. Thats not nice, or respectful of your fans Manny...STOP IT

You bet I'm serious. Naturally I'd like to have some more slugging power to spread around the order, but this is what you've got.

Burying your sluggers, thus giving the opposing pitcher the chance to face your team's strikeout leader, is what I have trouble taking seriously.

a spin off about split allegiances...what about the jerks who simply show up to root against the Nats..I was at the game last night and there he was again....with his dodgers hat...cheering all the way. very convincing--a real dodgers fan supposedly, except if you had seen the same guy rooting for the Braves last month, and the Mets last year. I can't fathom how these types get their kicks this way.

Re. split allegiances, I was born in the Chicago area and grew up in the SFO Bay Area, but didn't really follow baseball closely. My dad and brothers listened to Giants games on the radio and I remember liking the cadence of the Alou brothers names over the airwaves: Fe-lipe Alou (the announcer read it with two syllables), Je-sus Alou, Mat-ty Alou. Our family didn't ever go to games (distance and cost both being factors there). After moving to the Washington Metropolitan Area in early 1990, I mainly watched postseason games on TV and didn't closely follow any team during the season (I did follow the Cubs to some extent as part of a reciprocal rooting agreement with natsfan1b). So when the Nats came to town I could (and did) embrace them wholeheartedly and also became something of a student of the game (the Redskins are another story due to my memories of SFO's team in the Montana-era years, but I digress).

Hey Split Allegiance, maybe your heckler guy is Swanni.....

Actually, Church hitting leadoff is something to consider. He sees a lot of pitches and has good speed. But how would you shape the rest of the lineup?

If you want to get really crazy, how about hitting Zimmerman leadoff? With a good #2 hitter behind him, he will get some good pitches to hit. Zimm has decent speed and knows how to steal bases.

How's this for a lineup?
1 - Zimmerman (R)
2 - Lopez (S)
3 - Church (L)
4 - Young (S)
5 - Kearns (R)
6 - Guzman (S)
7 - Schneider (L)
8 - Logan (S) or Langerhans (L)

BrianH asks: ". . . how about hitting Zimmerman leadoff?"

Based on the rationale given, and on preseason expectations, it's worth a try. Based on current performance, I'm not sure it's an improvement on the current lineup.

However, I expect some regression to the mean by Zimm and others -- and would also like to factor in a bigger sample from Guzman. Once Guzie's got 100 PA's, I'll submit a lineup card for y'all to chew on (and spit out, if deemed appropriate).

NatsNut - Congrats and kudos on picking one team to root for. Nothing worse than a wishy-washy fence-sitter, and even more props for not taking the easy way out (Braves).

This leadoff discussion just leaves me scratching my head. They'll figure it out, that's what they're paid to do. Toss this year out...07 is where it starts to matter a bit.