I am happy as can be that the Nats are playing so well. HOWEVER, deep down I know not to get my hopes up. It could be a long post July 31 summer at RFK. The inevitable trades are going to hit this team hard. To those that are traded, I wish them well and hope they have good things to say about the Nationals and their fans.

PS - Take out the 1-8 road trip (SD, CHC, MIL) and this team is great. GO NATS! See you Monday.

"Does a team that basically duplicates last year's performance, given a game or two, mean this franchise is any closer to competing for a championship, which Kasten and the Lerners say is the ultimate goal?"

No, it means they've found cheaper alternatives for the crappy players they signed last year.

The only thing that's going to move this franchise closer to a championship is the development of prospects -- and only Marrero seems like a championship-level performer. This team has a core of average players, but no real stars, not even Zimmerman. They need to come up with a difference maker or three one way or another.

Thank you for asking. What we can make of this is that the Nationals talent is underrated as a whole; that taking two steps forward does not always require taking one step back; and that the Nationals front office including Bowden and Kasten are actually underrated.

Talent: It is very important to have a farm where you grow your own talent, but few teams this year have brought up rookies who have performed better than Belliard and Young (who are not paid significantly more than rookies). We should not confuse lack of a farm system with lack of talent on the roster.

Two Steps Forward: Reducing payroll should not be equated with being cheap or with not having talent. Getting younger is not the same as getting worse results. Prioritizing the farm system in not equivalent to conceeding progress in the current year.

Front Office: Kasten may not have been successful with every team he has been involved with, but management (like baseball) is a team sport. It is possible to have a really good player on a really bad team. The Nationals team is a really good team. His chances of success here are very good. Bowden is resourceful, smart, and talented. For not very much he added: Young, Belliard, Simontachhi, Fick, Flores, Colome, King, Langerhans, etc....

This is quite the devious Plan (!?!?!) by Kasterner. Convince everyone you're going to be historically bad by slashing payroll, and watch them rejoice when you have a normally bad/average team. Talk about adjustment to expectations.

I enjoy watching this team MUCH more than the Os, but mostly because I had no hope of them being good. It's almost a little like the inaugural season.

Love your work, Barry. Keep it up.

Chris opines, "The only thing that's going to move this franchise closer to a championship is the development of prospects -- and only Marrero seems like a championship-level performer."

There's a bit more than Marrero out there, but the point is worth mulling. While the cupboard is not as bare as it was at the start of the season, it's hardly full to overflowing.

I would add that the Nats could stand some veteran signings (when it makes sense to do so, i.e., not before the end of the season), but, hmmm, we've got Belliard, Young, Simontacchi... and last season we had Soriano...

Not that the front office should always shop at Filene's Basement, but the goods on Rodeo Drive aren't automatically better.

Everyone seems to be looking towards the return of the injured pitchers as if they will make a big difference but in doing so lose sight of the fact that pitching hasn't been hurting us thus far. The only thing Hill & Bergman are going to do is relieve an over-worked (but effective)group of fill-ins (forget Patterson). Their return will allow us to maintain a status quo, assuming that our offense isn't offensive (take that Natsfan1a). That's this year.

For the future, unless Bowden is hiding a whole buncha 1-8 hitters somewhere out of sight, I don't see us being any better next year. Matter of fact, if JB does dump Dimitri, Belliard and Bettista we'll have a tough time maintaining what we have now. Logan is exciting but next to useless at the plate. Nobody seems to perform at lead-off (why not try Langerhans?). Zimmerman and Kearns are inconsistent. Who knows when Nick will be strong enough to return? With JB's apparent commitment to getting rid of the veterans, we're gonna be toast.

One thing that is very apparent though is that this team would be much better if we had the pitching staff we thought we would at the start of the season, especially they way a lot of the guys are hitting now. That we are playing decent baseball with the ragtag pitching staff we have is a miracle.

Yes, most of our players are simply average and no they don't have what it takes to perform at the championship level. But do you think that many of these guys are going to be with the team in the next year or two? I sure don't. This team has had huge upheavals year after year and I don't think next season will be any different.

Anthony

"There's a bit more than Marrero out there, but the point is worth mulling. While the cupboard is not as bare as it was at the start of the season, it's hardly full to overflowing."

Don't misunderstand me. There are prospects in the system, and definitely a few interesting arms. But there aren't ANY impact bats other than Marrero. There are some guys who at their peak might be useful regulars, and you NEED those kinds of players to be successful. But to have a championship team, you need to develop an All-Star or two. And in that regard, it's Marrero and nobody else. So far.

Maxwell has potential, I suppose. But he's not terribly young, has a bad track record with injuries, and is still a few levels from the majors.

Zimmerman is on track to equal last year stats which were considered excellent. Oh, now the Guzzzzzman is doing good he not part of the team? I believe his contract runs through '09. Johnson for good or ill is part of the solution. Schneider is an excellent catcher although he always seem to be expected to have his breakthrough "next year". Kearns is the only question mark. I hope he finds himself or Bowden may have to find a sucker (something he is good at) and move him.

New hotness beats old and busted when it comes to skippers.

Bowden can put together a sub-mediocre team that is competitive, for pennies on the dollar.

Randy St. Claire isn't paid enough.

I think it's pretty simple, actually. This means that neither a bad, mediocre, nor winning season this year will have anything to do with the future.

Yes, this team is closer to winning. We have freedom to make choices and play the best player. No longer are we saddled with playing Vidro because of his contract. Same with injured Guillen. We have what appears to be good short stop again and a young second baseman with a good track record who is being asked to hit (until two days ago) where he might not be comfortable.

Bowden knows where to pick up cheap players and adequate bullpen guys. We might trade Dmitri and Belliard, but maybe we dont get what we want and they stay and possibly get us a comp pick.

Dmitri and Belliard are not the exception. We had Daryle Ward and Marlon Anderson last year. We can find two more of them next year.

We have unearthed more pitching than we could have ever imagined. And what if Speigner has turned some sort of corner. I look forward to another Cinci type trade this year. We have some relievers who we could part with and Bowden will just replace them with rehabilitated scrap heap guys like Colome, Wagner, and Carrasco.

Ironically, fans of the Capitals also call their rebuilding process "The Plan." I don't think either are worthy of capitalization until they prove to be successful.

I wouldn't give up on Zimmerman, Kearnes, Lopex and Schneider as cores for the future. I think they all have played better in the past and can do so again. If Johnson can return in the future that would be a big help. I'm not sure that Church is a fuil-time player, but he could be a good fourth outfielder. The first priorites to me are to get free agent outfielders who can hit in the middle of the order.
I also would like to see getting some starters. Bregman, Hill and Patterson have shown some potential, but they probably won't all pan out. I wonder if Matt Chico may continue to be a starter in the future. He probably was called up too soon, but he's been battling out there every fifth day and doing a competent job. Probably you can't ask for much more from a rookie who was never above Class AA. Finally, the Nats may have found another catcher for the future in Flores.

After listening to opinions about the Nats prospects---both the respected journalistic opinions, and the expert-sounding opinions on this blog and other places....I think i have finally figured out the ultimate truth!!

Nobody knows nothing!

All these opinions and projections are fun to read and write, but the real fun is watching what actually happens and seeing how almost everybody turns out to have been wrong.

Of the current hitters, Zimmerman can be part of a championship team here. Kearns, Lopez, and Church can be a complementary player on a very good team, but it's not going to be a very good team if all three are in the lineup. So no more than one of those guys can be part of The Plan. Schneider can be the catcher on a very good team, but if it doesn't happen in the next 2-3 years, he'll probably start the downslide that befalls catchers when they turn 30.

Of the pitchers, Hill could be a back of the rotation starter on a very good team, and possibly Bergman if his performance this year isn't a fluke. Practically anybody in the pen could be a contributor on a very good team, but bullpens seem to change over pretty radically each year so I wouldn't bet on any of them being here by the time this team is ready to be good.

Ohhhh -- we have a challenger for the punster title! (no offense taken, though)

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Dancer 13 said (in part):

Their return will allow us to maintain a status quo, assuming that our offense isn't offensive (take that Natsfan1a).

What we've learned:

Zimmerman is the real thing. Who cares what his BA is--he drives in runs.

Kearns, Church, & Lopez can be pieces of a contending team.

Schneider is the best defensive C in the NL (factoring in pitch-calling & handling pitchers), but can't hit lefthanders at all (look at his career splits).

Flores looks like a player.

Bowden has an eye for talent. And decent middle relievers can be picked up cheap if you can evaluate well.

Park effects are real.

WFY is right--whatever they're paying St. Claire is probably not enough.

Enjoy the ride when we can, but don't expect too much from this team - it has too many holes. It's fun to be the underdog as long as there's a chance we can "bite back" such as the latest Orioles series. Meanwhile, check out National Farm Authority and other blogs which focus on Nat's farm system. This is where "the plan" is percolating - generating the future. Dana

I agree with the assessments that predictions are bunk. Also, I think making them is the most exciting part of following a team.

It seems like the momentum of general consensus is moving us towards "JimBo is good at his game." But one thing I think we don't give him enough credit for is "pitching, pitching, pitching". We don't have the bats we need in the pipe now, it sounds like, but based on Hendo's scouting, it sounds like Bowden's been very successful on picking up some good arms.

The important point, of course, is pitching is harder to win without than hitting. With a surplus of good pitchers, we can always trade for good hitters. I think "pitching, pitching, pitching" should stay the mantra.

Section 418 enthuses: "Zimmerman is the real thing. Who cares what his BA is--he drives in runs."

Hmm... well, RBI are a good thing. But you don't get RBI without your team getting men onto (OBP) and around (SLG) the bases. Zimm's been a bit sluggish in these areas.

This year's record is meaningless as far as a guide for the success of The Plan (or whatever they're calling it). Only the development of young players or of old guys that can be traded for young players has any bearing on the future. Lopez and Kearns are okay, but neither is really a cornerstone of a future contender. Zimmerman hasn't peaked yet, so his numbers are adequate. Guzman may finally be tradeable. We should get pretty good return in trades for Young, Cordero and Rausch. That all goes into "success" for this season.

Winning does make it more fun to watch though.

A couple questions:
(1) Why are the Nationals playing Toronto in interleague play when our division is slated to play the AL Central this season?
(2) Is there any way to reduce the "Homerism" of the TV announcing crew? I'm sick to death of the announcers speaking in superlatives about this team ("Schneider one of the 10 best catchers in baseball," and "Nationals are full of character individuals from top to bottom" were both said last night. If we're pursuing Dukes and already have Young, I don't think "character" is really foremost on people's minds). After growing up listening to Vin Scully (who never refers to the Dodgers as "we"), I'm spoiled, but there must be a middle ground.

I think Guzman's contract runs through next year, not 2009.
They don't ALL need to be "cornerstones" of the team. Two or three will do. If Zimmerman is one, and they sign, say, Torii Hunter over the winter, plus one serious 20-W candidate, this bunch could compete.
Who's doing what in AA is nice to know, but the predictive value either way is imperfect. There are some HOF's there now, in somebody's system if not the Nat's, who will surprise everyone after they get a chance. And there are several Can't-Miss guys who will.

Man, Simontacchi goes into the eighth inning?? Who woulda thunk it? :-)

Nice to see Rauch getting his confidence back. And, given last night's performance, I wasn't too worried about Cordero's blown save the other night.

Barry -- say hi to Guillen and Vidro for us. It'd be interesting to learn how Vidro is adjusting to the second major league organization of his career.

So, if these guys, now, are in effect a .500 team, what does it take to put a .500 team into the wildcard? One really good hitter and one really good starter, and a little luck, might do it.

So, if these guys, now, are in effect a .500 team, what does it take to put a .500 team into the wildcard? One really good hitter and one really good starter, and a little luck, might do it.

ooops. Thought I caught that one in time.

look at it this way: has this team lost 4 games it "should" have won, from one hanging pitch, or messed up baserunning, or lack of one hit, or even a bad call? At least 4. Change four losses to wins and they are at .500 now. Flip another 5-10 games over the rest of the season, and they are in it. Two good additions could do that.

The Wizards/Bullets went through a long period of time where management figured they were just a piece or two away from being a good team: hey, if we just had a good center, we'd be in really great shape -- enter Ike Austin. A year later ... now we really need a point guard -- enter Rod Strickland. A year later... now we really need a shooting guard -- enter Mitch Richmond.

Point being, if you take a .500ish team, and an attitude that you "only need a couple of pieces", you have a recipe for long-term mediocrity.

The Nats, by most measures, are one of the worst hitting and pitching teams in baseball -- that's a lot more than a couple of pieces away from playoff contention.

It's great that these guys are playing .500 ball through smoke and mirrors, but management had better have more of a Plan than just adding a couple of players.

As long as they are sweeping the O's, I could care less who they are loosing to. Go Nats Go.

If this was the NL Central, we would be one win away from 2nd place. With 1 of the starters, and a 1-8 whole to start the season. I will take this every day and twice on Sunday. Until next year, then we better make a run for the wild card.

I love the fact that the Nats swept the Orioles and won the head to head series this year with our no name pitching staff and the Orioles overpaid bullpen. It was great to hear the boos rain down from Camden Yards the last few evenings.

Barry, Thanks for all you efforts!

I always learn something from those who post here, too.

The Nats are fun to watch recently. They are in contention in the games to the end, and have been showing well against what would appear to be superior AL teams.

As others have said, the return of pitchers from the DL will give some rest (we hope) and depth to the bullpen, and can keep the team in close games, generally.

It may be too early to tag the current members of the team as only average or not part of the future. Even big time batters have been having slumps.

Building depth in the farm system makes sense, but it would be nice, too, to be able to keep for a while some of the current players who are contributing and definitely giving a good effort.

I'm not convinced Bowden is the guy for the job. To me, he seems like a "churner," just trading for the sake of trading, churning one group of players for another. No matter how many trades you make, not all of your 8 everyday players are going to be Hall of Famers. Take Guzman, for example. Assuming you're not going to get Derek Jeter or Jose Reyes to play shorstop here, do you dump him for prospects? Seems like he's good enough to play every day, a competent player although not a cornerstone. They can't all be cornerstones. We need a stud centerfielder, more reliable middle relief and some sense of who the "keeper" are among the injured pitchers.

I'm so impressed with the job Bowden has done, I am amazed that he missed Jeremy Guthrie when he was on waivers earlier this year. Seems like he can uncover anyone from under whatever rock or cloud they are hiding.

Alright, here are my thoughts:

1b: Johnson is excellent; need a good backup as he is not ever good for 120+ games. Won't be here by '11
2b: Lopes is a keeper. 6 or 7 years.
ss: Guzman is overachieving, so this is suspect. Lopes sliding over is good insurance. Won't be here by '09.
3b: Zimmerman will be there for years. Not great, but very solid for years.
c: Schnieder, Flores is a nice combo with their roles reversing over the next 3 years. Flores is here to '11+

Infield, adaquate. We need growth from Zimmerman, but the talent is there all around.

Pitching
#1: We have none
#2: We have none
#3: Hill, Patterson when healthies
#4: Bergman, Chico
#5: we have a ton of them

We don't have any top level pitching to shut down good teams playing well. Major, major hole. Even if we made a wild-card by playing well and hard for 162 games, we'd get waxed in a series against a good team.

We could possibly buy 1 top shelf starter, we are a few years from seeing 2. By then, Guzman, Johnson and Scheider will have to be replaced as well.

Well, I have confidence Bowden can fill 3,4,5.

Bullpen is good now. I would deal Cordero and possibly Rauch before we leave spacious RFK. RFK inflates the value of our staff and we should sell while we can.

Outfield.
Church is a good 4th outfielder. Maybe a good 3rd as he settles in. I keep him. could be around in '11
Kearns is a good 4th outfielder. Bowden loves him, we'll keep him until '11
The center fielding platoon is replacable.

Sign Hunter in the offseason (though '11) and you really improve the outfield. Help is distant, but Marrero could be a good LF by '10 leaving Kearns/Church to fight over RF.

Where does all this leave us? We can be a wild card contender next year. Add Hunter and let Acta grow with the team.

Then look out for good starting pitching. Trade Cordero for it. Trade anyone and everyone except Zimmerman and minor league prospects for it.

If we can get a young front line pitcher for '09, open the checkbook. Maybe with luck we could contend in '10.

btw: if the Nationals had the Orioles raw talent and farm system I'd say they could contend next year (anywhere by the AL East ... hee,hee,hee ... Bird fans are really going to suffer).

Joebleux warns: "The Nats, by most measures, are one of the worst hitting and pitching teams in baseball -- that's a lot more than a couple of pieces away from playoff contention."

Many pieces are needed. Some will return to the team this season. Others are coming in future seasons (the recently promoted P-Nats are smokin', though Clint Everts seems to be chokin').

If you carve up the season as Barry did a week or two ago, it doesn't look quite so bad. A healthy Nick and regenerated staff will help.

Not that this is the season to fling money at a playoff run. Even in the most hopeful scenario, the schedule's too far along, and the money spent wouldn't be available for future investment (unless ticket sales and media income went through the roof).

Great analysis Steve. Interesting reading.

"anywhere by the AL East ... hee,hee,hee ... Bird fans are really going to suffer" (Steve)

Considering that Angelos apparently owns Selig, he'll probably make Selig swap the Nats and Orioles.

Regardless of one's feelings for Kasten or Bowden, the team was left extremely bare when it was sold. I'd prefer they take the route of building a good farm system so that they aren't left to the whims of the free agent market place. But it's going to take time, and I don't doubt that next year(s) will look a lot like this year.

In the mean time, give them some credit for producing a team that looks reasonable close to last year's team in terms of success on the field, but for a fraction of the cost. If those savings go into getting Smoker, et al signed, then that would seem like a good thing.

Are there players on this team that will be around when and if the team is successful? Probably not many. But some of these guys might get flipped for useful parts, and in the mean time, they have been an enjoyable team to follow. To be sure, some of the fun is seeing them exceed the low expectations that were set, but it beats what many of us had in 2004.

Anonymous: "and in the mean time, they have been an enjoyable team to follow"

I couldn't agree more. I like the makeup of the team for the most part and really enjoy them.

"To be sure, some of the fun is seeing them exceed the low expectations that were set"

I can cheerfully say that they aren't exceeding my expectations. I picked them to be a .500 team. But then, I've been a Pirates fan all my life and tend to live in Egypt during baseballl season.

"I can cheerfully say that they aren't exceeding my expectations. I picked them to be a .500 team. But then, I've been a Pirates fan all my life and tend to live in Egypt during baseballl season."

I didn't expect them to be a .500 club, but I thought that the media talk of historically bad was ridiculous. The bad start just had more of them jumping on that bandwagon without even considering for a minute the sample size they were basing their opinions on. I guess that's what I meant by exceeding expectations.

future is bright. prospects maxwell, daniel and marrero are tearing up the carolina league for the P-nats just a week in to their tenure there. ian "shortstop of the future of the past" desmond has been there for more than a year and still struggles. those three are rising stars

Nooooooooo! Say it ain't so!!

---

Considering that Angelos apparently owns Selig, he'll probably make Selig swap the Nats and Orioles.

Posted by: Dancer13 | June 15, 2007 02:15 PM

There are so many things to comment on here... I'll try to be brief (that never works):

First, "The Plan"... I got news for you Stan... It is already "The Plan"... to the person who says that it shouldn't be capitalized until it is successful, I think it is just as appropriate to capitalize it if it is a bomb... but really, I think that in this context, it is the philosophy by which you build a winning team (successful or otherwise). It is already capitalized... I put quotes around it, too.

I think that it is really easy to get wrapped up in stats, and trying to evaluate one player over another, but ultimately, the only stat that counts is wins. Also, individual statistics are not necessarily predictive, because there are all sorts of synergistic influences... how a player plays with his teammates, how he does in the home park, etc.. Not that I am a Moneyball convert necessarily, but the moneyball philosophy tries to address this in part, because you're essentially optimizing the number of bases taken offensively, regardless of how it happens... so a runner advancing is not necessarily because of a hit by the batter, etc.

Someone made the comment (several times now) about the Nats needing an impact player... Soriano was that, but I think one of the downs about Soriano is that he didn't really make the people around him better... especially the person hitting ahead of him... the pitcher. I agree that the Nats need an impact player, but I am not sure what that means in a practical sense. One of the ongoing fallacies of the free agent world is that somehow last year's performance is somehow predictive of this year's. A healthy Nick Johnson is an impact player, but he's going to make his mark hitting doubles, and sac flys.

The other thing is... baseball is a team sport, and focusing on the individuals ignores all the synergistic forces at play. If individual performance was all there was to it, the Yankees (and other big payroll teams) would be the only ones in the postseason... and that just isn't the case. There are other factors to consider.

Dancer13:

How is coverage of "basebool al-Amerakee" fi al-Qahira? Similar to Washington, DC circa 2005 and half of 2006?

Section 506 (After moving)

Ya got me?

506: TeHki Arabi inta?

Sec 315(2) asks: "Why are the Nationals playing Toronto in interleague play when our division is slated to play the AL Central this season?"

Because interleague play introduces irremediable scheduling problems. 16 goes into 14 no times and plenty left over.

MLB needs either to completely reconfigure the outmoded and irrelevant leagues, or to scrap interleague play. It will do neither, thanks to Bud. (Putting Bud in charge was like giving the baby a hammer and waiting to see how much damage it would do.)

Shwiya, yaa NatsNut. Darstu al-logha al-arabiya al-fusHa fi al-jamiyaat.

When is Stan going to extend the Plan to all the Arab baseball players? Talk about an untapped market! [please no jokes about "waiting to explode"!]

When I spent a summer in Morocco, I tried to teach some of the local kids to play baseball and they thought it was the funniest thing they had ever heard of. What? You need a glove? And a bat? And four bases? And to keep track of outs and strikes and balls? Why not just play soccer and kick the ball around. It made sense, actually. I think soccer is so popular, because it requires so much less equipment than any other sport (besides maybe track).

So these players from the Dominican Republic and similar Latin American countries: what socio-economic caste are they from? Is baseball a sport that shuts out the poor?

What we have learned is that unless Patterson, Hill and Bergman can stay healthy (unlikely, given their history), we will go from mediocrity in 2007 to truly gawdawful in 2008. No team can play with a shamrock up their butt 2 years in a row. Baseball is 90% pitching, and we have an improving Chico and a bunch of over-achievers who must still get through the dog days of summer. Any hope of being in a pennant race someday begins and ends with starting pitching. The baseball gods have a score to settle with Trader Jim and Stan The Plan. We haven't hit rock bottom yet, mark my words.

I think anyone who is optimistic about the outcome of this season (I mean finishing within shouting distance of .500) is welcome to his fantasy. But baseball is a cruel sport, and grinds people down. The smoke-and-mirrors Manny's been using has worked in May and half of June, but what will happen to all of the untested arms on the roster in August and September?

I predict the arms will get tired and give out.

"There's a bit more than Marrero out there, but the point is worth mulling. While the cupboard is not as bare as it was at the start of the season, it's hardly full to overflowing."

With regard to the Nats' farm system, it's just impossible to know who will be able to make a major league team, let alone excel when he gets there. The Nats could chug along for years with less than dazzling results from "The Plan," all the while having management announce that Prospect So-and-So at Potomac looks really promising for 20__.

... greetings from the banks of the Assiniboine in beautifuk downtown Winnipeg.

... why are the Nats playing TO? I think it has a lot to do with the history of the team. The Expos and Jays played every year while trying to establish some kind of rivalry. It never happened, so in its wisdom, MLB and the mighty Bud believe it's something which ought to continue.

"and in the mean time, they have been an enjoyable team to follow"

... I certainly agree with this. In fact it highlights a real fear of mine. That is simply this: the team gets to be a contender but loses its appeal. Right now it's fun to follow the team as it struggles and occasionally succeeds; I'd hate it if it then became a mechanical thing with no soul, even if the success were there.

We've learned Manny Acta is a good manager and hopefully can turn into a great one. He's got all the boys playing hard and doing the little things like being so quick to step in front of Felipe the other night before he got ejected.

Zimmerman is one of the stars of the future. Lopez, Kearns, Flores, Chico, and Church can all be parts of a contender.

The jury is still out on Bergman, Hill, and Patterson until they can find a way to stay healthy.

Our farm system has made a lot of progress and im definetly expecting to see more of our players in BaseballAmericas Top 100 prospects next year.

Esmailyn Gonzalez is making his debut in the GCL league soon which should be really exciting for the club and we've been signing a lot of other foreign talent such as Sandy Leon. We have two DSL teams playing pretty well now and as they've said we're scouting on the Pacific Rim.

All this tells us the plan is going along well and may even be ahead of schedule. Getting McGeary signed would show a huge commitment to the farm system. McGeary, Smoker, Detwiler, and Burgess is a great infusion of talent!!

btw while Hunter would be a nice pick up Kosuke Fukudome would bring a lot of media attention to us and the new ball park plus be a big step in getting talent from the Pacific Rim.

Ah, the joy of low expectations!
Manny seems able to teach fundamentals and get guys to play the game right. There is a brain lock now and then, but mostly this team is not beating itself very often these days. For this old fan who has seen more than his share of seven-figure salaries making base running blunders, missing cutoff men, swinging at a first pitch with a base stealer on first, that is no small thing.
Zimmermann may never put up the gaudy numbers that would make him a household name, or even an all star, but he is a solid ballplayer who is likely to keep getting better. I'd like to say the same for Kearns, but sometimes I wonder. Just when it seems he will begin to hit consistently he suddenly, inexplicably looks lost. But I haven't given up on him. Same for Lopez. Logan can be valuable if he learns to make contact enough to use his speed. It could happen. Vince Coleman learned to hit a little after he was in the big leagues.
Simontaachi looks a little stronger each time out. OK, he's the second oldest guy on the roster (and barely, he's about a month younger than Young) but he ought to have four or five decent years left. He wouldn't be the first guy to really learn to pitch in his mid-30s. He'll never have the kind of electric stuff to make a #1 or #2 but he might make a solid three or four starter for several years. Let's face it, there is a dirth of pitching right now and the Nationals aren't likely to be signing a rotation of Willis, Peavy, Penney, Beckett and Wang anytime soon.

Someone above mentioned he was not thrilled with the "homer" attitudes displayed by Carpenter & Co. on TV. I suspect both the play-by-play and color guys are under orders from Kasten to exaggerate the high points and downplay the low points, so all that Carpenter & Co. are doing is following orders.

To me, this speaks of a wild miscalculation on the part of Kasten as to what kind of a demographic he is dealing with. This is not Atlanta. In fact, Kasten has failed to note that the Washington metro area houses the most educated SMSA in the nation. The antics that the front office has come up with--Screech, the racing presidents, the "homer" commentators, all point to the fact that the front office hasn't a clue as to how to pitch a new team to a sophisticated audience such as DC's.

My guess is that audience ratings for both radio and TV are in the basement, reflecting the poor attendance at home games. Given the misdirected promotional efforts, I'm not sure even a winning baseball team will be enough for the people who have been turned off this year by Kasten & Co. to take a second look. Certainly a new stadium in and of itself is not going to change things.

It may be that the train has left the station as far as the Nats' ability to win over some converts to baseball in DC is concerned. They've got hard-core baseball people locked in, to be sure, but Barry's excellent blog doesn't get even a hundred responses, so it's not much to bank on.

Expect the Nats to stay/perform as they are now for 3 more years at least. It will take that long for the seeds to grow in the farm system. It will be patch it and play til then. Nothing more than that, but do enjoy the enthusiasm and the good streaks when they happen...GO NATS...STAY HOT

Is it just me, or does it seem like that field is just absolutely massive?

Ryan Langerhans says, "You want ribs in Toronot? Oh, I'll SHOW you ribs in TORONTO."

Ryan Langerhans is funny. I'm glad he's on our team.

Given that blast of his tonite, he evidently still has some ribs issues.

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Ryan Langerhans says, "You want ribs in Toronot? Oh, I'll SHOW you ribs in TORONTO."

Ryan Langerhans is funny. I'm glad he's on our team.

Posted by: Ava | June 15, 2007 09:41 PM

And what's with that Viva Las Vegas scoreboard in the outfield?

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Is it just me, or does it seem like that field is just absolutely massive?

Posted by: | June 15, 2007 08:47 PM

Hey JohnR (VA): You're a smart guy. I like reading your comments. You're right about the front office "antics" and I'll hang with you busting on Screech, Carpenter, whoever and whatever. But don't be hatin' on the Presidents, my friend. Those guys are awesome, crack me up every time I see them, and happen to be THE ONLY original and entertaining promotion yet.
;)

Well, ain't that a helluva note. Just got back a bit ago from the Friday night bridge game. (It's a long, long walk from Glencarlyn to Silver Spring... OK, only kidding. My partner and I did have Bacsikesque moments though. She and Mike recover maybe a little quicker than I do.)

Nice notebook item on Patty, whom we celebrate tonight as we close it down at the hutch.

Nattily-battily
John Hollis Patterson's
Testing his wing in the
Minors awhile,

Trying to heal it
Non-arthroscopically,
Trading velocity
Somewhat for guile.

As Churchy says, we'll get 'em tomorrow. Have a great weekend, everyone.

I'm with on the Presidents, NatsNut!

---

Hey JohnR (VA): You're a smart guy. I like reading your comments. You're right about the front office "antics" and I'll hang with you busting on Screech, Carpenter, whoever and whatever. But don't be hatin' on the Presidents, my friend. Those guys are awesome, crack me up every time I see them, and happen to be THE ONLY original and entertaining promotion yet.
;)

Posted by: NatsNut | June 16, 2007 12:30 AM

JohnR (VA) observes: "In fact, Kasten has failed to note that the Washington metro area houses the most educated SMSA in the nation. . . ."

I think not. This time, it seems to me, the glass is half full.

If you were at the finale last season, you will recall that the jumbo screen played videotaped goodbyes from players, coaches and front office higher-ups throughout the game. While I don't remember whether Lerner did one, I vividly remember Bowden's, in which he praised Washington for having the most "intellectual" fans in the game.

Intellectual? Baseball fans? Who would think to say a thing like that, even though it's right on? (And what about Boston?)

Sometimes -- granted, to the distress and disdain of many -- even JimBow gets it right.

JohnR(VA):

Couldn't disagree more with you on Screech and the Presidents. It's true that they are not for the "sophisticated" adults, but the kids all love Screech (and virtually everyone loves the Presidents). Those promotions have nothing to do with attracting the current ticket-buying public but with enteraining the kids iof the ticket-buying public (that is, the next generation of ticket-buying customers).

I remember the videotaped goodbyes at the 2005 finale. Unfortunately, due to the poor sound system (and, perhaps, to my being half-deaf), I couldn't hear them. I was disappointed that they weren't included on the DVD that was sold after the season. I couldn't hear most of Frank's goodbye last season, either. I was in the outfield and a bunch of us fans were asking each other, "Did you get that? What did he say?" That footage, however, was later made available on the team site.

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Hendo said (in part):

If you were at the finale last season, you will recall that the jumbo screen played videotaped goodbyes from players, coaches and front office higher-ups throughout the game. While I don't remember whether Lerner did one, I vividly remember Bowden's, in which he praised Washington for having the most "intellectual" fans in the game.

Probably the reason Barry's blog doesn't get as many hits as it should is because the Post buries the link. I guess Angelos owns the Post editor too.

The link should be on the first page of the Sports section in the same place every day.

Steve itemizes, in an excellently enumerative post: "We don't have any top level pitching to shut down good teams playing well. Major, major hole. Even if we made a wild-card by playing well and hard for 162 games, we'd get waxed in a series against a good team."

Pitching depth is my reflex criterion for SWAGging the playoffs and WS. On the other hand, some pretty fair staffs -- I'm thinking the A's while Zito was on board -- have come out on the short end of the postseason.

And who, based on pitching, picked the Cardinals over the Tigers in '06? Or the Bucs in 1960? Etc.

As Billy Beane notes, and he's far from alone, the playoffs (like any short series) are largely about luck.

Is anyone else steamed about last night's game? It seemed like Manny gave up on trying to generate anything. My biggest evidence was the way that Abreu was repeatedly left in the game at points when I think he would have been pulled by other teams. If Manny is going to bench Lopez and Church for not running out a ground ball, HE shouldn't leave a reliever in that's being chewed up just because he thinks there's no way to come back.

Well, Speig went out and battled again yesterday. Talk about your on-the-job training.

Now. Brandon Watson. You have heard of him. Lives in Columbus when at home during the season. Wears uniform number 00. Is at present riding a tie for the longest-ever hitting streak in the Class AAA International League.

So, you think: We've got Watson at Triple A and we've got... um... Tony Batista up here?

Before anyone launches a torchlight procession to demand the promotion of Double Zero, though, a bit of perspective.

- Watson's had a couple cups of coffee already. He was up in late '05 and was Frank's flavor of the month in April 2006. The rules of this blog forbidding obscenity might not allow me to post his career MLB line, so lemme just tell you it wasn't pretty.

- This season, Watson is sporting a .338/.368/.384 line at Columbus. Note the yawping lacks of patience and power behind that OBP and SLG: ten walks and zip HRs in 219 at-bats.

- The Columbus roster also contains Darnell McDonald who, at .322/.383/.448, is having arguably a better (not to say magnificent, but OK) season. Michael Restovich is slugging .503 out there.

Not to hate on Watson, y'unnerstand. But there's usually a reason these guys are at AAA, which can be more a parking lot than a developmental level.

Those stats don't include Brandon's defense.

He stunk in 2006.

Does he still stink? I hope we never find out.

Alex Escobar, come on down! You're the next contestant on "Who the Hell is Playing Center Field for the Nationals!"

There were a couple items about Esco in the OP's. (Other Papers.)

I think Barry's washed his hands of him.

Escobar can flat out hit. I was lucky to see him in person at RFK last season.

He has Nick Johnson's eye at the plate. He hits in the clutch. Defensively, he gets poor jumps on flyballs but he covers his late reactions with his speed.

But since he is hurt all the time, essentially, he is worthless -- as a player, that is. A lot of players questioned his willingness to play through pain.

"OP's," I like that. Will try to use it in the future!

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Hendo said (in part):

There were a couple items about Esco in the OP's. (Other Papers.)

Are you there Hendo?

May I just say, All right, Nats! A great trip for the Road Warriors. Come on back for some home cookin'!

Addendum to Ava: In Langerhans' case, probably some down-home, southern style ribs!!

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I said (in part): Come on back for some home cookin'!

Sorry... was traveling. You know what summer thunderstorms can do to airplane schedules...

On the airplane to Dallas I was squirming through John Schuerholz' "Built To Win." I like the organizational philosophy but at times he's just too much like the Greg Kinnear character in "Little Miss Sunshine."

Also, he rags on "Moneyball" all through the book. Schuerholz seems like a smart dude. If he ever reads "Moneyball" all the way through, he'll probably enjoy the hell out of it. (The irony is that a lot of the FO types that scorn "Moneyball" are practicing a lot of what it talks about.)

Am trying to get a glimpse of Stan Kasten's character, but the available glimpses are most faint. I'm coming away so far pretty much with the Kasten we know, not that Schuerholz adds a lot.

I will tip my hat to Schuerholz, though. Don't expect the Braves not to contend any year soon.

Barry,
Where did you end up eating? We went to Pizza Rustica (I think thats what its called), Kama over on King St. W, and Cora's.

AZS

natsfan1a, Ryan Langerhans does love those ribs.

Way to go Bowie! And while I'm at it, a big tip of the blue curly-W cap to this afternoon's Nats relief arms!

Nattily-battily
Everyday Colome
Author of pitching
Appearances brief,

Sets down the enemy
Chronicologically,
Leaving Big Jon to cry
"Hail to the Chief!"

Oh you Nats!

A very nice finish to a very nice 9 game roady. 6-3, very nice indeed. Hopefully the Nats can maintain against some power hitting AL clubs at home. Way to play the Tiger visit down D.Y. Wouldn't want to feed the bulletin boards would we. Perhaps you can catch them...uh...how do we say....cat napping.

Re. fending off the power hitting AL clubs at home, I noticed that the Indians are playing .500 ball on the road.

Sec. 315 et al: OK, I concede I wasn't thinking of the kids when I dissed Screech and the racing presidents. Does anyone know if the minor league affiliates have such stuff?

I like to see baseball when I go to games, not Disney entertainment. When GW played on the ellipse, it was fun to skip work and go over and watch a college game with just the players, coaches and a very few onlookers. Same deal when I lived in Annapolis with the Mids. Now that's baseball.

Hendo: I read Schuerholz's book last year. It got a little irritating--when he wasn't writing about how great he was he was writing about other people saying how great he was. On the other hand, it does shine a little light on where Kasten might be coming from. I'd be willing to bet the expectations for professionalism, in the clubhouse especially, were brought with him.

Man, Zimmerman is only hitting .250- what a bust. I mean, sure, he's leading the majors in RBI's since the beginning of May, but only .250?? If he was hitting .270, now, he would be really living up to expectations, but .250??-that's terrible. The Nats would probably be in 1st place if Zimmerman was getting 1 more hit in every 50 at bats, which is what 20 points of BA is worth. One hit every 11 games...
Just think how many more opportunities any Yankee hitter has to drive in runs, but Zim is leading every player in the majors in RBI since May. 20 points in average is an extra 15 hits for the entire year, practically meaningless. Zimmerman started the season hitting terribly with RISP, and has been a monster driving in runs since then. He is a great player that will be the cornerstone of the organization for years to come. Remember, 10 points of batting average equals 1 more hit in 100 at-bats. Zimmerman's ability to drive in runs and hit in the clutch make him more valuable than most of the .290 hitters out there- that's why he's leading the majors in RBI since May despite being on a team that has many fewer baserunners than offensive powerhouses.

A wise man once said, "At the end of the season, the .250 hitters will be hitting .250, and the .300 hitters will be hitting .300." Remember Crash Davis's drunken rant about the difference? One extra hit a week -- one bloop, one bleeder, one seeing-eye grounder, one dying quail ... and you're in Yankee Stadium. But this is from a bitter career minor leaguer who knows better.