RE: balk

The balk was a good call, both because it was the right call, and because the alternative was a wild pitch, in which case, the count would be 1-0. In either case, the runner advances, but the count doesn't advance... Not that it mattered in this case.

RE: Wily Mo's loud out --

Shoulda been a double.

Barry, I agree with you (for different reasons, I suspect) that there is some similarity to 2005... in that if you give the bullpen a lead, the opposition is worried. It woulda been nice to not be so close last night, but in almost any other park, that game is 7-0.

We can at least be cheered that not *all* NL parks are bandboxes. And credit really should be given where credit is due:

Nattily-battily
Washington bats stake them-
selves to a lead that's a
Snap to defend --

Save against Houston, who
Homer-resurgently
Come within one (but all's
Well in the end).

Oh you Nats!

Lannan: Yes, shut him down. Why risk destroying him if we're not in a pennant race? (Why risk destroying him if we were?)

Zimm's D: Judging by that OOZ, I'd guess there are plenty of above-average plays to see. (Part of this will be influenced by the number of left-handed pitchers on the Nats staff.)

Bergmann: If he's used wisely, there's no basis for disbelief. I'm still feeling bad about his having to be shut down after being brought back in to start the ninth on May 14, a move that I agreed with at the time.

Kearns: Who got him to move his hands? Lenny Harris? Nick Johnson? The ghost of Ted Williams? Suggestion #1 - Don't toy with our curiosity. (Like that doesn't sell papers. OK, whatever.)

Sheinin: A nice stroke of noblesse oblige, but - Suggestion #2 - don't cheapen yourself. Have him change your printer cartridges now and then, just to keep things in balance.

Hendo might be in the bloggers Hall of Fame, he's the best.

They should shut down Lannan, why chance it? I can't imagine he'd gain that much from 5 more starts at this point. Then again, I'd like to see some data on the correlation between injuries and innings pitched. Is there really more likelihood of injury if you pitch more innings? Or is that just baseball "logic"?

Bergman should absolutely get a big chance next year. Right now, I'd write down Hill, Bergman, Redding as the 1-3 starters for next year. Put Patterson into the 2 spot if he's actually ready then try outs for the 5 spot.

If those four could throw even 175 innings each on average, that would be as solid a front 4 as anyone in baseball. Granted a few good teams have 2 guys w/ better credentials than Hill/Patterson but if they stay healthy and throw like they've shown they can, they could be perfectly in line with play-off caliber teams' rotations.

A couple of comments concerning the complaining I hear about the short left field porch in Houston. If you watched the games, you should also remember the stadium also has a very deep and large center field area. The catch Nook made on Tal's hill would have been a home run just about anywhere else. If you go back and look as the series, Center field gobbled up as many home runs as Crawford allowed, if not more.

Ok, so I am loathe to admit it but Nook Logan is starting grow on me. On base again and then scores easily from First on Zimm's double. Is it possible at all that Nook is the answer in Centerfield? I am guessing no.

Kearns has looked great lately, I think Wily Mo will finally reach his potential, and Nook is growing on me in center. And I think the Nationals still MUST get a free agent outfielder with pop.

So who plays the least games in the outfield next year of our current crop of outfielders?

I think Church will be the odd one out. He still struggles mightily against left-handed pitching, no matter what Don Sutton or Bob Carpenter think. His ability to handle the breaking ball has only marginally improved, if at all. We've seen him here for large portions of 3 years now, and as Manny stated earlier this month, he hasn't really ever met the expectations that we had. While the chase for 50 doubles is nice, Bowden will probably try to use that to ratchet up his market value to someone else to see what we can get in return.

Nook is proving his value as of late, Bowden won't concede that Austin is a failed project at this point - especially when he gets on streaks like this, and if Wily Mo can be re-signed after the end of this season, then I think they'll give him a full season's work, at least in a strong platoon situation.

... as a fan, I like quirky ballparks as much as anyone else. When I sit down to a game from Fenway or Wrigley or Minute Maid or Camden or a few others, I get ready for some interesting entertainment. Manny Acta likes 'interesting' parks too, it appears. After Nook's circus catch on Wednesday night, he said something to the effect that he thought the train, the short fence, the 'hill', and the 'pole' gave the place 'character'. I wonder if he'll feel that way when some CF sustains a concussion barrelling headlong into the thing some day soon. Now maybe it's simply my overall communist leanings but I could very easily support a call for standardized diamonds for MLB. After all, how can fans evaluate the diversity of players (as we've been trying to do of late) unless they all play with the same limitations and dimensions. There's got to some value to the phrase 'an equal playing field'.

... now this: tonight's game offers a little something extra for us fans north of 49. Both Shawn Hill and the Rockies' Jeff Francis are home-grown Canucks and this may very well be one of those 'who's the best Canadian pitcher' kind of games. Granted Francis has won thirteen games this stanza but who's to say Shawn wouldn't have had an equally good year, if that pesky third base bag hadn't got in the way.

You know things are going well when Kearns draws an intentional walk.
My question is, can Logan learn to throw? OK, he wasn't born with a great arm and you can't change that, but can't he learn to keep his throws down enough to give the cutoff man or the relay man a fighting chance?
I hope he plans to go to the instructional league or winter ball to work on that. He is doing everything else so well, it'd be a shame for his arm to make him a liability.

As one of the most virulent anti-Nooksters in May and Jue, I am amazed and chargined at my complete turn around on him (typical Fan!). If he can keep his BA, run scoring, and RBIs up, he might me the answer in CF (which is what the NATS have thought all along). Given the mostly great pitching this year, I will be content with whatever Management wants to do with the staff.

Natscan, I've had the same thoughts about standardized parks before. I admit that it's idle musing, since it will never, ever happen, but it seems to make a lot more sense.

The argument against it, which also appeals to me is basically the "Huh?" argument, named after the dumbfounded expression a non-baseball fan gets when he or she first learns about it. It's the same look that appears when someone finally understands what "no clocks" means in practical terms ("you mean a team can score 10 points in the top of the eighth?") or that there is no arguing of balls and strikes ("no review?"). They're all things that make this sport quirky and interesting.

Like I said, I am divided. Character verses sense.

... answers to Barry queries:

1/ ... not at all impressed with Manny and/or Jim if it is true Lannan first heard about plans for him from barry's question. Not good, men; not good at all!

2/ ... yes I believe in Bergmann for the long haul. I have no defence other than my gut which derives from what he did earlier in the year.

3/ ... I'll be extremely intersted in barry's findings about Zimm's defence. But I have one question: does our very own Barry EVER STOP WORKING?

Hey Section 506, a baseball team actually can't score 10 points in the top of the eighth, because baseball teams score runs, not points.

And natscan, on this side of de fence (soon to be built if the anti-immigrant crowd gets their way) we spell it defense, not defence.

Sorry for the quibbles, but it's been a long week...

I think this is going to be another consensus day. Yes, Lannan should be shut down. Yes, we believe Zim makes a lot of great plays. Yes, most of us are [cautiously] optimistic about Bergmann. Yes, Kearns looks better at the plate. Yes, Hendo's posts are amazing.

However, I don't know if all of us are in love with Hill's sinker as Barry is. That's not to say we don't like it, but rather that Barry's love for it borders on obsession, and most of us aren't that infatuated.

And how nice is it to be reminded of that series in Anaheim in 2005? Piece of garbage. I'll always remember that. As someone posted once on NJ, "God bless Jose Guillen's crazy ass."

Re: Kearns streakiness as a hitter

In the last ten he's batting .400, which is awesome, but also fuel for the fire. So I checked to see how he looks like over time using basic mlb.com stats. People with better stats sites, please improve these, particularly the gut feeling that Kearns gets hits, but never when it matters.

Here's what I got for him this year:

April .283 AVG, 7 RBI, 10 BB, 19 SO, 2 HBP
May .225, 15 RBI, 5 BB, 18 SO, 2 HBP
June .255, 4 RBI, 13 BB, 15 SO, 1 HBP
July .250, 15 RBI, 12 BB, 13 SO, 3 HBP
August .304, 11 RBI, 14 BB, 12 SO, 0 HBP

Is that a streak or is that someone figuring something out?

3 places where a quality sinker-baller makes ALL the difference:

- Houston
- Cincy
- Colorado

Anyone who can limit fly balls in these places has some value. I'd love nothing better than to see Hill get 16-20 ground ball outs tonight with a handful of Ks thrown in.

Yo 419 - you're gonna quibble about Canadian spelling and points vs. runs? Did you wake up on the wrong side of the bed this morning? Are you gonna go on another rant about the Post coverage or something?

Touche, 419! You got me!

On Bergmann, an emphatic YES for the 2008 rotation. More than anyone else on our staff (excepting JP, maybe?) he has the ability to be a dominant starter.

On Hill's sinker - whoah guys, not so fast. Everyone thinks a sinker is a panacea for Colorado, but there's one big problem with that theory - balls don't bite the thin air well, meaning sinkers don't sink and curve balls don't curve, a little but not nearly as much as in sea level parks.

Heavy air good, thin air bad for breaking balls of all stripes. And given the humidor effect, fly balls are not nearly so dangerous as they used to be. It will be interesting to see if Hill can get a lot of ground ball outs. He didn't get as many as expected in his last outing, and he's going to get no break in Colorado related to the air density. I have more confidence in Hill than any of our other starters normally, but this start concerns me.

Thanks for the monthly breakdown, 506!

What strikes me is how despite poor hitting in May, Kearns still drove in 15 RBI (should i call these runs, 419, or should I saw he tallied 15 RBI?).

June was a nightmare month for him despite having his highest BA and all the walks because of his lack of RBI. All 4 of them, the whole month, and they seemed to come at meaningless times, if memory serves.

If you would've said at the beginning of the year that at mid-August (9 days ago), Kearns would have approx the same RBI as FLop, I don't think you'd get much agreement. Yet he finally got to 50 with his shot Wed night.

I'd love to see him settle in the rest of the way to show his stuff. I thought he was getting way too complacent, too comfortable, with his .250 average as it didn't seem like he was doing anything to change. Now we know he's finally made some adjustments and it shows. The intentional walk last night spoke volumes (while I'm just typing them, it seems).

Hey ShawNatsFan, just as there is no crying in baseball, there are no points. You gonna argue that?

And excuse me for thinking that de fence is what de batter hits de ball over to get de home run. Which for some strange reason is not called de home point.

Rants, OTOH, have a long and glorious tradition in this game, do they not?

Re: Kearns' lack of clutch-ness.

While I agree with the overall gut feeling, there seems to be evidence to suggest that the tide may be turning as of late. For instance, his homer 2 nights ago (responsible for the only 2 runs we got) was extremely timely, and the only reason we were competitive in the game late. Timeliness of hitting is extremely hard to quantify - some people discount that there is even such a thing as clutch hitting or situational hitting, despite some players' noticeably elevated average in those (RISP, 2-out, game-tying or lead-changing) situations.

Most of what we have on this issue is gut feeling, but I think that "gut" feelings, despite what you would think to be their deep-rooted nature, are actually rather easily swayed in the face of changing evidence (see: opinion of most journal-ites re: Nook Logan).

Enjoy the sinker while you can. Unfortunately, Hill's mechanics will keep him from ever being a consistent major league starter.

There is some truth to the gut feeling that Kearns gets hit a lot (8 times this year), though. He is tied for number 26 in baseball with eight other people. Jose Guillen is number 7, with 14 WITHOUT Pedro Martinez.

The leader? Aaron Rowand, 17

ShawNatsFan sez: "What strikes me is how despite poor hitting in May, Kearns still drove in 15 RBI (should i call these runs, 419, or should I saw he tallied 15 RBI?)."

Gee, I dunno, man. Shall we meet up in line at the ATM machine sometime and discuss it? But no fair peeking over my shoulder to steal my PIN number. I do have to be home by 9:00 tonight, though, because I see in the Post's TV listings that there's an MLB baseball game on channel 20 tonight, Nats vs Rockies. So could we do it before then? RSVP please, possibly ASAP if you can. Okay?

(Can't for the life of me figure out why I never got that job in the Department of Redundancy Department...)

I dun't thienkk wee shudd pyle on othir blogrs abott speling diffrinces.

Seriously, I'm all for looking for commonalities (e.g., Nats love) and appreciating the differences that make our community all that much more well-rounded and diverse.

Don't you mean 9:00 p.m. tonight?

Sorry, 419, I don't get this. Can you explain? If it has something to do with Shaw, then that's really lame. If it has something to do with the PNC "promotion" at RFK then it is awesome.

"Gee, I dunno, man. Shall we meet up in line at the ATM machine sometime and discuss it? But no fair peeking over my shoulder to steal my PIN number. I do have to be home by 9:00 tonight, though, because I see in the Post's TV listings that there's an MLB baseball game on channel 20 tonight, Nats vs Rockies. So could we do it before then? RSVP please, possibly ASAP if you can. Okay?"

Ok, which of you drives the Wrangler with the "NATSFN" license plate? I was following you down Constitution Avenue last night. Nice ride!

Hey all, especially 419,
I'm not picking a fight. I'm saying nearly all of us have mis-typed or misspelled or double-posted or misread a comment or re-read a posting after hitting Submit and thinking "oops", right?

My thinking, for someone to harp on these in a negative way (different story if a joke, as has been done well here often!) is a little harsh. Especially if you're implying there's only one way (your way) to say things.

Here's a different approach:
"Hey Natscan, I noticed you spell defence like they do north of the border (no, not Pennsylvania). Q for you: when the newspapers in NB, Quebec, or elsewhere in Canada write about baseball, do they spell it "defence" or "defense"? Is a Zimmerman web gem written as a "defensive highlight" or a "defencive" one? Curious minds want to know."

BTW, this curious mind does want to know.

Got my point (run)? Truce, man! Share the joy of the Nats!

Hey, 506, you cracked me up with your descripiton of the "Huh" argument, particularly your droll description of the non-baseball fan. Reason enough for asymetric parks, in my view. And, for what it's worth at this point (hehheh), I took your reference to "points" as being a riff on the non-baseball fan's attempt to describe baseball. You obviously (duh!) know that there are no *points* in baseball.

I'm amazed at Natscan's loyalty from north of the border to our franchise. His quirky spelling (to those of us south of 49) reminds us where he's coming from, eh?

Great summary by John in Mpls.

As to RZ's fielding, I'm all for Barry's plan to try to get a sense of how many above average plays RZ makes.
What do you all think about which has the greater effect on a pitcher's morale, positive or negative -- a spectacular play for an out OR an error on a play that an average 3B makes routinely? I recognize that RZ makes a lot more of the spectacular plays than he does errors, but just wondering about their relative psychological effect on the hurler.

God forbid someone gets offended...

Matt likes a good fight. RYAN CHURCH!

An interesting question is asked by DunnLoring: "What do you all think about which has the greater effect on a pitcher's morale, positive or negative -- a spectacular play for an out OR an error on a play that an average 3B makes routinely?"

I would bet it depends on the pitcher, but probably the latter, since it would encourage them to overpitch and mess up their mindset, whereas the former would just be another out.

In the case of Shawn Hill, though, I don't know that anything can make his morale worse than it already is. He is one gloomy starter!

I think Kearns will be fine. I'm glad to see that he's willing to tinker with his approach to try and improve it. I also think having Wily Mo batting behind him will help his productivity.

Saw on previous threads that others also had problems with their MASN2 feed on DirecTV. That was about as difficult a time watching baseball as I've ever experienced. It was like watching the game being fed from one of those satellite phones. Thank goodness the O's game was over in time for me to switch to MASN (which had a prefectly fine feed) and watch the last couple of innings without the picture jumping like crazy.

JHM mentioned that we should enjoy Shawn Hill's sinker while we can because his "mechanics will keep him from ever being a consistent major league starter." Could you please elaborate? I've watched every start of his for the past two years and apparently I'm missing something.

Finally, I don't think we have too much to worry about regarding Hill's sinker tonight. Ever since they started putting the baseballs in humidors at Coors Field, the home runs hit have decreased substantially.

Guilty as charged.

3 questions, numbered a la Natscan, in tribute for my favourite speller on the blog (btw, Firefox's auto-check feature is a huge help)

1/ I second the request about Hill's mechanics. Why isn't he going to be able to pitch long?

2/ Would someone with stats programs check to see Austin's month-by-month splits in the last couple seasons to see if he is indeed streaky.

3/ How much do stats programs cost on the internet? Which are the best? You may have realized that I love stats, but it's only a hobby, not a job, so I can't justify spending much.

Catching up on the dead-tree edition articles.

First, can anyone explain why Nook Logan chose to rename the hill in Center "Blueberry Hill"?

Second, since we're on the topic of correcting people's statements today, Manny deserves a wrist slap:

'"[The ability to induce ground balls is] like a Catch-22 in a way," Manager Manny Acta said, "because the ball just flies through the infield, too. If you ask me, I'd rather have a dominant guy who's going to strike out guys and not give up groundballs or fly balls. But we don't really have one of those."'

That's not a Catch-22, Manny, that's a dilemma, or "Damned if you do, damned if you don't."

Leftover from last night...

Section 506 asked "1) What it was that Schneider did that showed his value?"

I was referring to the throw he made to gun down Pence in the 3rd. Check out the highlights on nationals.com.

I feel it is my duty to come to Natscan's defense (defence?). Speaking as both the holder of an English degree and the husband of an English wife, I really have to believe that American English is the bastardization of the rule. Canadian is closer to the Queen's English. I dig that.

Blueberry Hill, where Nook "found [his] thrill ..." (as the song goes) chasing down that fly ball.

My guess is that he got his thrill (-ing catch) there...

First, can anyone explain why Nook Logan chose to rename the hill in Center "Blueberry Hill"?

Bob L. Head, nodding sagely, beat me to it...

Great movie, though, and an even better book. Maybe it was a pun on catching the ball? Help the outfielder... Nah.

---

'"[The ability to induce ground balls is] like a Catch-22 in a way," Manager Manny Acta said, "because the ball just flies through the infield, too. If you ask me, I'd rather have a dominant guy who's going to strike out guys and not give up groundballs or fly balls. But we don't really have one of those."'

That's not a Catch-22, Manny, that's a dilemma, or "Damned if you do, damned if you don't."

I'm worried about Hill's sinker tonight, too. It's probably going to be a little skittish, since Barry's already called it three times from the plane.

"Oh Shawn Hill's sinker, I can't wait to see you tonight."

I'll second that, John. My mom, the English major, must have harped on the Queen's English enough over the course of my childhood that some of it sank in...

Potatoes, potahtoes...we all love the Nats!

---

I feel it is my duty to come to Natscan's defense (defence?). Speaking as both the holder of an English degree and the husband of an English wife, I really have to believe that American English is the bastardization of the rule. Canadian is closer to the Queen's English. I dig that.

AHA!

"Blueberry Hill, where Nook "found [his] thrill ..." (as the song goes) chasing down that fly ball."

And Bob L. Head is the best name since Mr. 300*

He'll probably be sitting in the press box making the universal "call me" gesture with his hand to his ear.

---

I'm worried about Hill's sinker tonight, too. It's probably going to be a little skittish, since Barry's already called it three times from the plane.

... on a blog about baseball, and specifically, the Nats, I can't believe it's come to this but since ShawNatsfan asked, here's what I can offer:

http://www.onelook.com/?w=defence&ls=a

... as for 'defensive', it's the same anywhere that English is spoken/written ... I guess. As for the reason behind these aggravating differences, I can't begin to say - simply that I was educated in Canadian schools and I learned my lesson well. As for why it should make any difference to any of us, I can't say that either. I certainly don't sit around figuring out ways to use words that will be different and will cause distress; I don't have that much time on my hands.

... all I can say in the end is that in spite of our linguistic differences, we can all join together with a rousing round of "Go Nats!" ... I hope.

That play Zim made last night, the way he threw it made me think, "Oh crap, not another one..." because it kinda rainbowed through the air like Nook's throw from center the other night.

And then Fick caught it, runner was out, and my breath just went "whoosh." Then I watched the replay, and his throw while his body was diagonal to and off the ground, and was simply astounded. I'd missed the first-inning explosion, so that one play just about made my night.

Now if he could just do the ROUTINE throws to first, I'd be ecstatic. That Philly game at RFK still haunts me.

I'll no doubt be chastized for this, but can we please, please, PLEASE make a serious attempt at sticking to baseball subjects here?

Oh yeah -- and bring back Bergmann NOW. :-)

"I'll no doubt be chastized for this, but can we please, please, PLEASE make a serious attempt at sticking to baseball subjects here?"

I was trying to think of a clever way to chastise you, but I can't. I agree with you, but a few diversions now and then don't bug me.

BARRY, I'd be interested in another poll. Guess the starting nine next year.

Geez, you all are a touchy lot here. So I type "Hey natscan, on this side of de fence we spell it defense" and you (a) don't even notice the admittedly lame play on words and realize that my comment was entirely in jest, but also (2) accuse me of "piling on", "harping in a negative way", "implying there's only one way (my way) to do things", etc, etc. All I did was make a statement of fact, akin to saying "Hey Crocodile Dundee, on this side of the equator Christmas is in the winter, not the summer." And then I myself said "Sorry for the quibble." I mean, God forbid if I ever did say something truly offensive, like "John Patterson is a hypochondriac wimp" or something like that, ya know? You'd have wasted all your outrage on me already. Y'all have got to pace yourselves and save your bile for the proper spots, like Manny does for arguing with the umps...

I only listened to the games last night, so I went back to check the highlights on the official site. Zimmerman's throw in the eighth? Wow.

But perhaps more impressive was Schneider throwing out Pence. Very nice.

Apologies, Sect. 419, for not having realized that you were joking. After the recent anonymous attack posted by a member of this blog, I, for one, am perhaps more sensitive than usual.

And while I'm at it, apologies to Matt for my dismayingly digressional ditherings...

Ah, alliteration again!

But that would be true, Section 419. John Patterson IS a hypochondriac wimp!

Personally, I liked the immigration joke, 419. And honestly, I'm not sure if your "truly offensive" statement would draw as much ire as you think. Maybe I'm wrong, but save for a few posters here, patience is wearing thin for JP.

Guess the starting nine, 506 (AM)? I think you'll wind up with a pile of wish lists.

Personally, I'm curious to see how Bowden goes about finding these missing pieces. Do the Nationals have enough in the system to make a trade of impact? Will the Lerners and Kasten free up enough money for Bowden to go get the player he wants?

And then there's the Reds factor...

Proved my point, faNATic. Thank you very much.

Glad to see that Ronnie Belliard is finding his grove again (as one who critiqued him last week).

Looking forward to watching the game on Channel 20 tonight -- MASN better not screw it up again!

Go NATS!

Re. plans for shutting Lannan down, one of the OPs and the Nats team site quote Acta as saying that Lannan will have one more start, which might explain Lannan's seeming surprise to Barry's comments/question.

Never mind. From another item on the Nats site: "Acta said before the game that Lannan would have only one more start this season since Jason Bergmann is expected back from the disabled list on Sept. 1. It was news to Lannan..."

Any time, Minnie-John. I've got your back. Esp. when it comes to reaching the end of my rope with JP.

I'd agree that with our lineup configured the way that it is, Ronnie performing well makes our lineup infinitely more formidable. Having someone at least lukewarm and with a pulse in the 7-spot means our lineup doesn't become such a pushover in the last 3 spots, essentially throwing away an offensive half-inning. I like moving Ronnie down there to provide more balance to the lineup, especially when he's hitting for either average or power (seems tough for him to do both at once).

Of course, this is all enabled by Nook's hot streak, making him far less of a liability at the top of the order.

Speaking of bottom of the orders, did anyone else think Houston's 6-8 was possibly the least threatening threesome + pitcher in the league?

faNATic's post got me thinking. Each time Scott, Loretta, Ausmus/Munson was on the horizon, I was thinking to myself "out, out, out" and it wasn't any better with Lane or Burke at one of the spots either!

No pop.

Then I got to thinking how the same could've been said about the Nats all year. And I sure don't feel that way now!

John in Mpls: "Will the Lerners and Kasten free up enough money for Bowden to go get the player he wants?"

From different sources the Nats will probably be somewhere between $60 - 70 million for their payroll next year. With their $37 million payroll this year that's an increase of $23 - 33 million for next year (not factoring in loss of free agents etc.) Thats quite an increase (as much as +89% high side).

So who do they spend that on? Two big names (pitcher and CF)? One big name (CF) and several middle of the pack guys? (SS, 2B, backup catcher, veteran starter)

I tend to think that additions will be made via free agency more than trades this off season considering they're just now getting the minors back to respectability in their pitching depth but are still woefully thin in hitting.

What's at question is how close do they think they are to contending? You have to believe they can put together a pitching staff that can keep them close most nights and the bullpen has shown this year it's as good as any in the game. Does adding a bat or two combined with better dimensions in the new park add up to enough offense to make a potential run at the post-season? Not to say they would make it or be in a position to make a lot of noise should they get there, but if they can make a respectable push in the first year of a new ballpark that can build a franchise changing burst of momentum that can carry on for years. I lived in SF in 2000 when PacBell opened and the enthusiasm for that team in that stadium with the way they were playing was infectious.

So it's August 24th. Columbus ends its season on September 3rd at Toledo. That means that the most AAA rehab games Patterson can get in before they shut it down is two - if he starts tomorrow night.

Last time I checked, Patterson has not been slated to make any AAA rehab starts.

So we can expect the official news that Patterson is done for the year, um, tomorrow?

How smart do Bowden and company look now by choosing to take the "show us you can do it again" approach to JP after 2005?

on the free agency questions:

Am I the only person that thinks Rowand's a piece of garbage? Just because one FA CF is pissing on his shoes (re: A. Jones) in a contract year, doesn't mean that phenomenon doesn't exist. I say stay away from the game altogether. Sign a lower tiered guy and plug away. Am I in the minority thinking this?

I went to the Clippers site in an attempt to do a little legwork on John's John question but couldn't quite figure out where they hide the team news stories. I did find, however, that the mothers of Chris Booker and Michael Restovich appear to have been rather busy stuffing the ballot boxes in the voting for Clipper of the Month for August...

http://www.clippersbaseball.com/fanzone/poll/?vote=1&cat_id=20

good call MKevin. I have thought that myself several times over the past two seasons.

AND, if he does show he can do it again, what then? trade him at highest value? take the chance again?

---
How smart do Bowden and company look now by choosing to take the "show us you can do it again" approach to JP after 2005?

Posted by: MKevin | August 24, 2007 12:32 PM

I'd stay away from Jones but I think Rowand would look great in a Nats uniform. I'm really hoping they go after him aggressively.

That's what 1yr deals are for ;-)

"AND, if he does show he can do it again, what then? trade him at highest value? take the chance again?"

Posted by: ShawNatsFan | August 24, 2007 12:34 PM

I think adding 2 bats is probably essential for long-term success. That puts someone in either LF or CF, and finding a 2B with some pop.

Look at this 2008 Nats fantasy offense/defense:
C - Schneider/vet backup (these two are likely still weak-hitting, but just fine; also assuming Flores is in AAA next year)
1B - Nick Johnson/Dmitri backup (obviously assuming NJ health)
2B - New bat/Ronnie & FLop backup
SS - Guzman/FLop backup
3B - Zimmerman/Ronnie backup
LF - WMP/Logan platoon
CF - New bat/Logan backup
RF - Kearns/WMP & Logan backup

That's a core of 12 players who could ostensibly make some noise and back up every position on the field. Now if only we could find those 2 bats, we could be looking fairly solid.

Give us next year to feel what it's like to make some noise down the stretch and break .500, then go seriously hunting for the postseason starting in '09. By that time, Marrero, Maxwell, and Flores should hopefully be around to provide real depth in the dugout, if not regularly contributing.

All great points, MKevin.

I don't think anyone would argue that this team has produced not only beyond expectation, but at times seemingly beyond potential. As much as we've seen go wrong, a lot has gone right for the Nationals just be where they are right now. While there is reason for optimism next year, it should be tempered by reality.

The NL East is a tough division. In 2005, the Nationals finished at .500 and dead last. A wild card in 2008 is probably too much to ask for.

Think of the factors here. The Nationals need:

1. A healthy and productive Nick Johnson
2. A healthy and productive (2007 standards) Christian Guzman
3. A similar year from Dmitri Young?
4. Consistent performances from the rotation (health and production)
5. Likely a few FA or trade additions
6. A little luck

Looking at that list, a lot of those situations would seem to be exceptions to the rule in Washington. Nick Johnson is almost perpetually hurt (he's my favorite Nat, so that's not a shot at the guy). Guzman's tenure in DC has been characterized by either injury or a lack of production. Dmitri's never had this kind of season before - is it fair to expect it again? And when was the last time you could say "Nationals" and "healthy pitchers" in the same sentence?

An honest and fair expectation, I think, is to be around .500 and in contention for third place. I'd be happy with that - in 2008.

given the fact that Rowand has benefited from playing in two extremely hitter friendly parks, I think his overall offensive production is inflated. He doesn't have any home run potential and his career avg is in the .280s. For some reason, I just don't like that guy. Can't put a finger on it.

faNATic - great stuff. I like it a lot.

Who are your "new bats" - best case for both?

I'm on record several times for Rowand CF and I like Tadahito Iguchi 2B. Both provide tremendous additions to the Nats roster and are big hits to the Phillies. Iguchi not as big considering he's probably a role player after Utley returns.

Okay, so this is off-topic a bit (but still about baseball, Matt), but I've been thinking about that 30-3 debacle in Baltimore.

First of all, that was the same Texas lineup that Johan Santana two-hit Sunday with 17 strikeouts.

Secondly, all 30 runs were earned. That's all pitching, man.

And the pitching coach is Leo Mizzone!

In an interesting twist of fate, Baltimore faces Santana tonight in Baltimore. With the Nats in Colorado, it might be worth making the trip up 95. That is, if you can stomach giving your money to Angelos.

I see some Nick Johnson references. I post a comment made yesterday from Will Carroll, Baseball Prospectus. Emerging news? Discuss among yourselves.

Speaking of legs, Nick Johnson had some hardware removed from his. The Nationals still hope that he'll be able to come back next spring, but privately are testing the market for an offseason trade.

MKevin, thanks a lot. Appreciate it!

I'm still developing my own wish list for the holes in our roster, but I would probably skip over Iguchi. I don't think he's any upgrade in productivity over either Felipe or Ronnie at 2B. They seem to be generally in the same class of hitter, with maybe an occasional extra SB from Iguchi. While he is a fantastic fielder, I'm not sure that he plugs in the lineup holes any better than who we've already got. Felipe and Ronnie are both capable at the position in the field, and at this point, we're looking for more offensive upgrades that may be available.

"An honest and fair expectation, I think, is to be around .500 and in contention for third place. I'd be happy with that - in 2008."

I'll agree with that. I just think it's not possible for as much to go wrong this year with the health of the club as last year. NJ is my favorite Nat but he's had some serious injuries and I'm just not sure he'll ever completely recover. I don't see why people seem to be leaning towards DY falling off next year? He was an all-star before his off-field issues derailed him and he's been this year's MVP. If his off-field life stays consistent I don't see why his on-field production wouldn't do the same? Do I think he's the future at 1B? Probably not, but I do think he's a great guy to have off the bench if NJ is healthy and an excellent bridge for the next 2 seasons while they wait for the younger kids.

I think it's way to soon to think about contending for a division title, and honestly the WC is probably a stretch too but I do think with the right additions and a bit of luck they can make it interesting enough to keep the new stadium not only full but dressed in red and blue and cheering for the Nats instead of it feeling like you're on the road in DC.

An exciting 2008 means $$$ for the owners which in turn means they're more convinced of the area's long term dedication to the club and an even higher payroll for 2009 and beyond.

Re: the Nick Johnson trade talk.

I think we'll have a hard time getting value for him, based on his injury history alone. If we were going to trade him for someone that would significantly help us out (like an outfield bat), he would have to be part of a package deal with a couple prospects.

I'm not sure that any other team values him as highly as we do right now (in our longstanding belief, whether unfounded or not, that he'll be just fine when he does finally get back). We'll either be disappointed with what we receive or have to give up more than just Nick to get what we want.

That being said, if we do trade Nick away, then Dmitri has proven he can do the job capably this year. We would, however, need someone to fill in his backup minutes (I suppose that Ronnie could do it if he's not a starter in the middle infield), assuming that Bowden doesn't see the need to keep Fick-ing us over.

Interesting, tomterp. I hadn't heard that.

First of all, "testing the market" is a far cry from negotiating deals. But I'm not sure if Carroll is implying they'll trade Nick Johnson or that they're looking to find another first basemen.

The latter seems odd, since they're paying $5 million to his backup next year. The former is odd, because I can't see anyone trading for an injured Johnson, who will make $5.5 million next season. Teams won't want him unless he's healthy, and if he's healthy, the Nationals should want him.

faNATic - you're probably right about Iguchi. The market at 2B is thin thin thin over the next 2 years. I even looked at potential SS/3B you might be able to convert to 2B but there's just no lumber out there really for middle INF.

actually, dmitri *has* had this kind of year before. it's just been a couple of years since he did (2003).

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=3538

2003 Det 155g 78R 34 2b 7 3B 29HR 85RBI .297avg .372obp .537slg .909ops

2007 Was 115g 53R 34 2b 1 3b 12HR 68RBI .334avg .384obp .516slg .900ops

plus he had an OPS in the mid 800s from 98 to 2001.

First of all, thanks for the stats, gwells. I was myopic in my recollection of Young's career.

Secondly, seven triples? How in the world...?

I like our 2B situation. It's a thin FA year anyway. I guess we'll have plenty of time to discuss on... Saturday(?), but...

I'm a big Belliard fan. I think his range is better than he gets credit for, he turns the double play really well, and until recently he was hitting better than anyone not named Meat.

Lopez needs to get on the ball and play up to his potential. He's done great in the field and on the bases when he's sharp, but he's been inconsistent at the plate.

While I would LOVE to see Rowand in CF, I agree he's going to be WAY overvalued this offseason. I love his energy, tenacity and ability. But, he's having a career year, in a hitter friendly park and lineup, in a light CF free agent crop. He's gonna cost a ton, and I'm not convinced he's worth what he'll cost. Depending on that tag though, still would love to see the penguin stance in Nats Park next year!

More Young-Johnson side-by-side... not to steal Barry's thunder

5 of Dmitri's 12 seasons he has batted over .300 (42 percent). 9 of 12 have been over .270 (75 percent). 9 of 12 have also had him playing 100 games or more (75 percent). He's had 667 RBI in 4,547 at bats. So that's an RBI every 6.8 at bats.

Nick has had 0 of 6 seasons batting over .300. 3 of 6 batting over .270. 3 of 6 also playing 100 or more games. And 297 RBI in 1,973 AB, so an RBI every 6.6 at bats.

Ah, but it's the OBP that we love about Nick Johnson (statistically, we love him because he rocks as a person). .395 career! Meat Hook is .349. Does it translate to runs (points!) though?

In his career, Dmitri has crossed the plate on average every 2.1 games he's played in. Nick has every 1.9 games.

What this all seems to mean is that with Nick or Dmitri at the first bag next year we will be doing well. Given Nick's superior on base abilities and fielding, but inferior batting average, might I suggest using Johnson as a pinch hitter/late-inning replacement? It would keep down the wear on his body, strengthen us defensively, and provide the bench with someone we can really trust in a pinch hit situation, while not losing Dmitri's power and consistency.

Staying pat at 2B essentially means the only place you're looking to improve is CF. I think they've made their move in LF by acquiring WMP and there's no way they're looking to move AK from RF. 1B is either NJ or DY, 3B is set, SS is Guzman (I think they're mesmerized by what they saw before he was hurt this year - and frankly I think he earned another shot) and unless they make a run at a guy like Posada I don't see them doing anything major at C.

Where else then are you upgrading besides CF? That means you go hard after Hunter or Rowand and hope the new stadium provides a shot in the arm for the rest of the order and get on your knees and pray that NJ gets healthy.

BTW, I think NJ getting back on the field everyday purges AKs guilty conscience and he goes on to have a huge year.

I like it 506! Copy and paste when Barry puts up the 1B posting!

Or, we can start it now:
One thing that makes Meat a great asset on the bench is his switch-hitting, and equal aptitude from both sides. He is a true switch hitter, using all parts of the field, and potential power -- from both sides of the plate. Tough to find any of those. Problem is, as a PH he's only up once. Bummer.

IF Dmitri is having a rocking spring next year, I'm all for him being the starter and Nick doing a Fick (with some oomph). If Dmitri is hot next year, there's no need to rush NJ. But wouldn't you LOVE to have the problem of both of them playing well?

Couple things:

Your homework for today is to think back to the beginning of the season (April and May) and find as many games as you can that were lost because of things that are fixed (more or less) now, such as errors and pitching. I bet you find between five and ten. The point is that the Nats are already a .500 team (the sample since May is big enough, I think, to say that). Expecting them to be .500 next year is not much of a stretch.

I expect the Nats to make their offseason splash with a trade, rather than free agency. I think Andruw is too old, and that might also be the case for Hunter. Rowand is the right age, but everyone else knows that, too... so the length of contract might be a problem (at least, it would be for me... who wants a 38 year old center fielder?). Forgetting the specifics of the WMP deal, the mechanism by which he arrived in Washington is the most interesting, in my mind... a trade for an arbitration-eligible player that you could get to extend before free agency. Note that is the same mechanism that brought Soriano to the Nats. That opens the market up considerably, with a lot more upside for the Nats.

As for pitching, I bet they stand pat. If you look at all the free agent pitchers from last year, most of them are not doing anything except earning (not really earning... perhaps cashing) big checks. There are plenty of young and promising arms in the farm system (which are the same as cash, when it comes to acquiring personnel)... so between what the Nats can develop and bring up, and what they have already, they still have plenty to stock the minors and have a few left to trade.

The most intriguing of the pitchers, for me, is Redding. He's had really good stuff, he's an imposing presence on the mound... he's a veteran... he's had a bad string of luck, and I think he's glad to be with anyone... and I think there's some chemistry in the clubhouse that makes him even better. Hill and Bergmann are in, for sure. Patterson is in for sure if he's healthy. Chico, Hanrahan and Lannan are all legitimate candidates, though any or all of them could start the year in the minors and we would be well-served getting them some seasoning. All the guys in Vermont, plus this year's draft, plus Balester, etc... Plus Jimbo could invite a few retreads in, just in case. I can't see them spending much on pitching, especially in a year where the publicly stated goal is to contend...

The Redding thing points to one other aspect of the team that I think is important... because it goes beyond just him... and that is, that Bowden and Acta have created a place where guys like that (Put Dmitri, and to a lesser extent, Belliard in that group) who didn't have a lot of hope in playing in the bigs can come and succeed and be a part of something bigger. They know that the team wanted them, that the team is doing right by them... by extending their contracts they're extending that good feeling about the organization... I think that goes a long way towards winning. Look at teams like the Yankees... and for that matter, the Orioles... all they have is raw talent... they have no synergy... they're no better than the sum of their parts. I don't think you win that way.

i'm with theraph in thinking that rowand isn't gonna be the answer. i understand everyone wanting to go all in this year with the excitement of a new park and first real opportunity at free agency, but it doesn't necessarily mean the right players are there for us. to me free agency looks real thin this year. just because a certain amount of money has been earmarked doesn't mean we have to max the budget (i know this is a federal town and habits will be hard to break).

an extra good bat anywhere in this lineup will help everyone, so felipe at 2b is still good enough for me. i think bowden has done a great job in setting this team up for next year already. i'm hoping the lack of free agent pitchers bodes well for a trade since we appear to have more arms than we thought.

we should still concentrate on loading up the minors and try not to get wide eyed overreaching for the playoffs before the pipeline is overflowing. the new park is exciting and the atmosphere alone will be worth a couple games in home field advantage. i guess i don't believe any of these free agent outfielders improves our record enough to make it worth it a 5-7 year committment to them. if i had a choice though, it would be torii hunter...

I think this discussion of expectations is a very interesting one. I wonder, is there a difference between what we expect the Nats will do next year and what we will tolerate? In other words, if the Nats only improve by 3 wins next year will you be okay with that, so long as long-term progress is made? Or do you need the next milestone to be more signficant?

Personally, I need to see an improvement in Runs Scored and at least stay in the same range for Runs against. This should translate to more wins, but it might not. I would also like to see HRs, BBs, and fielding percentage for the team go up.

And most importantly-- stellar attendance at the new park. Finally, a team that is actually on the TV in any DC or local area sports bar instead of the Yankees or Sox or some other sport. Geesh.

I also think that thinking about the mechanism by which a new player arrives is at least as interesting as guessing which player it could be. Say what you will about him, Bowden is creative.

Yes, we like Nick's OBP, but you're right, it might not make up for his offensive shortcomings in other statistical areas. What I really like about him, though, is his patience at the plate. He's a smart hitter, and I've missed having that at times this season.

Someone here championed the idea of making Nick a hitting coach some day. I like it.

speaking of interesting discussions (I'm not endorsing this, just passing it along)

Schilling's Strange Stance
SI's Jon Heyman says Curt Schilling (left) is nuts. "O.K., maybe he's not insane in any clinical way," says Heyman. "Insane in his own way. There can be no other good explanation as to why he would say he might like to join the Devil Rays next year as a free agent. No two-time World Series champ and borderline Hall of Famer with a massive ego and thirst for the spotlight signs up to pitch his last season in Tropicana obscurity." Schilling told Boston radio station WEEI, "I'd love nothing more than to finish my career working on a pitching staff where I know that there are young guys that are going to be positively impacted by me being around [after] I was gone. I enjoy that." [AHEM]
Putting aside that Tampa Bay is trying to build for the future and has virtually no chance to win and no good reason to pursue an attention-starved 40-year-old pitcher, it makes no sense for Schilling to say such a thing from a business standpoint."

Just off the plane in beautiful, amazing, smoggy-as-hell Bangalore. (Picture 100,000 two-stroke engines -- which power most of the motor scooters and three-wheeled autocabs of the city -- mixing with the usual blend of 40-year-old Ambassadors and other miscellaneous vehicle traffic.)

Natscan muses: "Both Shawn Hill and the Rockies' Jeff Francis are home-grown Canucks and this may very well be one of those 'who's the best Canadian pitcher' kind of games."

So who was -- or is -- the best Canadian pitcher? Let's start here, just with names (you get to pick your own stats to inform your argument):

Starters: 1) Fergie Jenkins, 2) John Hiller
Reliever: Eric Gagne

Thoughts?

I understand tempering enthusiasm with reality. But you only get one shot at making a big splash with a new ballpark. Remember new parks can go either way and I don't think you can over-estimate the importance of fielding a competitive product the year you open a new park. Look at places like SF, St.L, even Toronto and Baltimore when they 1st opened. They all had contending teams when their new stadiums opened and they reaped the benefits for years. On the other hand, look at Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, nice new parks but still struggling attendance-wise.

Again, I'm not suggesting they mortgage the future and go for broke in 2008, but if they can do enough to where they're in the mix for most of the season then they're setting themselves up for long term success.

In a perfect world the first year in the new park would have been 2005. That team, that year was electric. If that was in a new stadium I think you'd have crowds in the upper 30,000s nightly this season with the way this team is playing. Too bad it's in a rathole like RFK and thus we have to listen to pundants spout off about how DC is still a questionable baseball town.

It's not just W/L -- they are a commercial entertainment enterprise -- entertain me. Make me think I got my $25 (or whatever) worth, and I'm cool with it.
That means, play well, and contend. They don't have to win, next year, for my money.

-------
In other words, if the Nats only improve by 3 wins next year will you be okay with that, so long as long-term progress is made? Or do you need the next milestone to be more signficant?
Posted by: GoNats | August 24, 2007 02:10 PM

Good points (runs?), Longtermplan. Along the same lines I wrote yesterday, as much as I would like to see Hunter or Rowand in CF next year, the price will be high, the rest of the free agent crop is very thin, and one additional bat probably doesn't get us the WC. We need to keep stockpiling assets per The Plan, first and foremost. Having said that, I wouldn't object if they signed Hunter or Rowand, but signing any of the highly questionable FA starters would be a bad idea. I agree that .500 is the right goal for 2008.

After taking 3 of 4 in Houston town, the Nats are now Rockie bound. Up first is Hill and his biting sinkers, making Rockie hitters think there wearing blinkers. Nats hitters taking adavantage in the thin air, leaving the Rockie pitchers nothing to spare. Long and deep into the thin air at night, Nats hits taking deep flight. Now, I'm not saying they'll get a Texas sized 30, but boy oh boy, wouldn't that be purty. GO NATS...STAY HOT

Well, it was obvious they were just so D[RF]ed glad to be here, that first season.

---------
In a perfect world the first year in the new park would have been 2005. That team, that year was electric.
Posted by: MKevin | August 24, 2007 02:26 PM

Wigi sez: "Your homework for today is to think back to the beginning of the season (April and May) and find as many games as you can that were lost because of things that are fixed (more or less) now, such as errors and pitching. I bet you find between five and ten. The point is that the Nats are already a .500 team (the sample since May is big enough, I think, to say that). Expecting them to be .500 next year is not much of a stretch."

A key part of realizing any expectations of .500 or better for next season will be for the team to get off to a good start in April/May, something they haven't done in the three years they've been in DC. Even the 50-31 first-half team of 2005 didn't really hit its stride until late May/early June. Of course, there has always been considerable offseason turmoil from one season to the next, which probably contributes a lot to the slow starts. No matter who gets signed or traded this winter, Manny will need to do a good job of managing to keep it from affecting the ability of the team to coalesce and start strong. Based on his managing performance this year, though, I think he'll be up to it.

Liking the poesy, SC Nats Fan!

Good points (AKA runs) MKevin and ce, jr. re. 2005. It would have been the icing on the cake to have had them in the new park then. That was such a special year. They were so glad to be here and we were so glad to have them (and still are, natch).

Theraph, I'm with you on the anti-Rowand movement. He's having a career year in a hitters' park and isn't even going to hit 40 HR. He's going to demand way too much money for too little production.

If we have do drop a lot of money on CF, and I'm not convince we have to, I'm an Andruw Jones fan. He's the best defensively by far (look at Hendo's stats from the other day) and he can't possibly have another year with the bat like this one right?

Contending (as opposed to contentiousness) is *not* far off -- a .500 team (and we all seem to agree this team is effectively that) would be 5 games out of the wild card, today, August 24, albeit with 6 teams ahead of them. That's probably not anomalous, but approximately true most years. Which fits more than just the technical definition of contending. And being in contention in Sept. is mainly what got Girardi the MOTY last year, I think.

faNATic notes: "Timeliness of hitting is extremely hard to quantify - some people discount that there is even such a thing as clutch hitting or situational hitting, despite some players' noticeably elevated average in those (RISP, 2-out, game-tying or lead-changing) situations."

Oh, "clutchness" exists, all right. The darn problem with it is that it's easiest to see in hindsight -- e.g., "say, hasn't Zimm been pulling that off a lot lately?" -- but, of course, often elusive in particular situations.

That said, I think "clutchness" can be manufactured, to a degree. If the team's having good at-bats -- whether they result in a string of hits or a few 9- and 10-pitch groundouts/Ks along the way -- you get into the opponents' bullpen faster, and get to keep pounding on arms that may already be tired from recent previous work.

That's when you can start to see opportunities arise, at least from the fan's point of view. Put, say, an overworked Danys Baez into the game to face the heart of the Nats' order. Do you get excited then? I do.

Perhaps real "clutchness" can be characterized by a hitter's having an above-average chance to perform well in a key situation against almost any pitcher. That's what we think of when we see a David Ortiz, or a Zimm. Sometimes it comes through.

But is it still elusive? Oh, yes. Nothing's easy in this game.

It has nothing at all to do with this thread, but if anyone here thinks that Tom Boswell is not, deep in his heart of hearts, a die-hard Orioles fan, just look at the way he took this question from his chat today:

"Falls Church: Bos, what are the chances of Manny winning NL Manager of the year? How many more wins do you think he would need? Thanks!"

and turned his answer into a discussion of the Orioles' new manager and their prospects for the future.

Is it any wonder that folks like me so often feel the need to rant about the way our hometown paper neglects our hometown team?

Hey gang,
I was just reading Boz's posting during his chat about the Orioles 30-3 game, where he says he watched every pitch. It is quite an account!

I'm with John in Mpls - the same team that suffered 17Ks earlier. 30 ERs. Amazing.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/discussion/2007/08/16/DI2007081601283.html
"Watched every pitch. One of the most amazing (and memorable) games I've ever seen in the regular season. MUCH better than seeing the zillionth no-hitter."

Twas a good thing the Nats had a 3 run lead last night, though, it wasn't an overworked Cordero that gave up the 2 run bomb, it was actually, according to the podcast, a rusty Chief. Then again, in a real ballpark it would merely have been routine flyout, as would the first one Lee hit. How the heart of the Nats bullpen can keep up the quality work they've doled out so far is beyond me. Nats starters don't even average 6 innings per outing. Perhaps it's how Manny divides it all up, though occasionally, Rauch shows the wear. At least the additions of Ayala and Colome have provided some depth, and Schroeder has performed well also. The Chief has blown 8 save opportunites, a number a little to high for the liking. Ah, if we'd been able to split those to only 4...if only. Oh well, progress has been made this year just the same, and in the new digs next year, who knows what may happen, maybe the....should I say...the miracle Mets...excuse me...miracle Nats. Hey, I'm allowed my baseball fantasy, aren't I?

Speaking strictly for me, yeah, I do still wonder about that.
Boswell is just one guy. You don't like him, fine, don't read him.
Barry is posting online at 3 in the morning, from the airport, from the park, 3 times or more some days, plus the gamer, the notebook, the more-than-occasional extra piece. And there's Yanda and the other pinch-hitters for his days off or travel. That's a lot.
Yes, they miss some things, or don't get to run them for various reasons, but "neglect"?? With all due respect, Puh-LEASE.

_______
Is it any wonder that folks like me so often feel the need to rant about the way our hometown paper neglects our hometown team?
Posted by: Section 419 | August 24, 2007 02:56 PM

Manager of the Year Manny: Acta, to me, is the most deserving but we all know that never mattered. So who will actually win it? Bobby Cox, Tony Larussa, Ned Yost, Manny Acta? No way Bob Melvin or Bud Black deserve it. Sweet Lou? I hate to think Cox and Larussa, but...Willie Randolph? yuck.

Hendo,
Perfect post about clutchness and the deeper pitch counts and how it all kinda revolves around a team strategy and approach. Wears down an opponent's bullpen at the end of the series too.

One thing about baseball is over such a long season, it's a lot tougher to be consistently clutch than NBA/NFL/NHL. That's why October clutch players (Jeter, Rivera, Ortiz) get remembered as such.

Ah, 419... I knew you had it in you!

And, still a truce about spelling differences, terminology differences and errors!

andruw is pushing closer to hall of fame and has many years left in his body. he could be a bargain after this year...no doubt he has the right position/power combo and familiarity of NL East. maybe he'd like a new ballpark change of scenery...

Thomas did respond to the Acta MOY query as noted below before segueing into O's coverage (and, to be fair, it is a baseball chat, not a Nats chat):

Tom Boswell: He hasn't gotten enough attention early enough in the season. Everybody around the country thinks, "Wait. They still might fall apart." They're not going to fall apart.

Right now, the Nats are ahead of nine teams and barely behind Baltimore. But it's close. They still might only finish ahead of Tampa Bay. If they win 74-75 games and finish ahead of 10 teams, including the Orioles, Acta IS the Manager of the Year and I don't care who technically is handed the award.

The "magic number" is 72 __more wins than last year's team. They're on pace for 73. The people who enjoy this team are, like me, probably a little baseball-wacko. That's okay.

ESPN's Jayson Stark thinks Andruw Jones is nothing less than "the most overrated CF of all time." Here's what he wrote:

"I'm not going to devote a lot of space in this column to Jones. I'll leave it to the accompanying book excerpt to cover that one. But in case no one has noticed, Andruw's trend line hasn't reversed much this year, either. He's 18th of 23 qualifying center fielders in zone rating. He's on pace to strike out nearly 190 times. And he has had nearly twice as many multi-strikeout games (16) as multihit games (eight) so far. For the record, I like Andruw. He could play for my team any time. And he's one of the best center fielders I've ever laid eyeballs on. But the idea behind this project is to point out the difference between how we perceive a player and how he's actually playing. And Andruw is not the same player he used to be."

And here's a link to the "accompanying book excerpt" referenced above:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2880979

Rowand is not the greatest, but I think that will keep his price down. Which other teams would we be contending with?

The other great thing about snagging Rowand is that he robs Philly of an impact player in their lineup. If the price is right, I think he'd be a fine addition and a better subtraction.

On to the team's playing. Here are the month-by-month stats:

April 9-17 (.346)
May 13-15 (.464)
June 10-16 (.385)
July 14-12 (.538)
August 12-10 (.545)

April, you all remember when we lost all our starters. June we lost them all again, as you'll recall. It seems that with more or less stable starting pitching, this team is a serious contender.

There is legitimate concern about Andruw and whether he's on a downward trend. But he's still a step above Hunter (who looks destined for the White Sox anyway) and way above Rowand. If we are going to waste money on a top-tier guy in center this year, I think the safest bet is Andruw. I'd rather hang onto that money for this year though.

So, 506, all we need to do is to put the first half of 2005 together with the second half of 2007.

"So, 506, all we need to do is to put the first half of 2005 together with the second half of 2007."

And I think splice that all with a healthy strain of the 1924 Senators. See, it's not so bad!

Going off-topic for a minute -- sorry, Matt -- John in Mpls opines, "Speaking as both the holder of an English degree and the husband of an English wife, I really have to believe that American English is the bastardization of the rule."

There's something to be said for that, but considering that around 300 million of the world's billion or so English speakers subscribe to the American plan, it's a bastardization to be reckoned with.

I'm moved to this observation by being in India, which is home to maybe only 50 million or so everyday English speakers, but has retained English (the Queen's, kind of) as one of its official languages -- if but a "subsidiary" one. Now if they would just adopt baseball... (Cricket's not hard to get to like, though.)

Back on topic, let me note that "The Australian" newpaper, in a recent summary of worldwide scores of all sports and sundry at the top of its inside sports page, bore a picture of who do you think? A-Rod. There is hope.

i agree andruw is overrated, and probably always has been since he never ran as much as he was "projected" and his ave never improved. but this team could use someone who knows what it means to be in the playoffs every year. and he might enjoy playing in front of an excitable crowd.

this is crazy. we should still have grady sizemore. this could be a much different conversation right now. i guess i'm still not over brandon philips/sizemore/cliff lee = bartolo colon.

You want excitable? We got your excitable right here! :)

---

and he might enjoy playing in front of an excitable crowd.

Don't forget a dash of Expos for exotic flavor!

---

"So, 506, all we need to do is to put the first half of 2005 together with the second half of 2007."

And I think splice that all with a healthy strain of the 1924 Senators. See, it's not so bad!

There is a reason I'm not a GM. A number of reasons, really. One is that I do not want Andruw Jones because I don't want his big, dumb grin and lumbering ways. Especially not the slightly amused look he gets when he strikes out. As if these mortals are trifling with him.

I hope we go after Rowand, I think he is a quality player and will put up good numbers in DC, though not the numbers he's put up in Philly. It would also be great to put a big hole is one of your top opponents line-up. Unfortunately I think his price will be higher than his value and I have a feeling he'll be staying in Philly when all is said and done.

Torii Hunter is also a great possibility and would put up numbers as good or better in DC than he has in MN, the only question I have is how long a contract he will need. If he wants a 5-8 year deal I think it's a no-go (he's 32 already), if he needed 12-15 mil a year for 3-5 years I think that's a great move. I also wonder if MN is going to make a big move to keep him, can they really let Hunter and Santana go in back-to-back years and not change the team name to the Pirates?

Most likely (and I don't think this is a good idea, just that it will happen) is Adam Dunn. We all know how Bowden feels about Dunn (hell any Red, past or present). Off the 3 guys he is the one that can be a real line-up changing HR hitter. Dunn has no problem hitting the ball out of any park IF he connects with it...my only real issue with Dunn is if we can really handle having Dunn AND WMP strking out 150 times a year in the same line-up? Still as a power line-up this does sound impressive;

1. Lopez (2B)
2. Guzman (SS)
3. Zimmerman (3B)
4. Dunn (LF)
5. Johnson (1B)
6. WMP (RF)
7. Kearns (CF)
8. Schneider (C)
9. Jake Peavy (P)

I heard yesterday from "Jim Bowden's Intern" that Chuch is going to the Padres with Redding and several minor leaguers (probably about 12!) for Jake Peavy. I know I started that chatter here after watching Peavy eat the Mets line-up for lunch on Wednesday night, but OH MY GOD how I wish it could be true!!!!

Sect 506: you were on the same lines as me... I (as I so often do) took it wayyyyy to far :-)

Looking at the wins/losses per month as you said April and June stick out statistically. So if you remove them, the teams over all record is 39 - 37 for a .513 WPCT.

Now, apply .513 to the games played in April and June and you get 13 - 13 records for both months for an overall record of 66 - 62. That's (in theory) how they could be doing without all the injuries.

Take it further and apply .513 to the remaining 34 games for a season record of 83 - 79.

Here's the real stretch... if you can assume that the Nats were capable of 83 - 79 this season without injury, and you can sign or trade for a big bat, move to a stadium that plays more fairly can you assume to add 5 wins? If so that's 88 - 74. Big stretch yes but this is the kind of improvement that perhaps isn't outside the realm of possibility.

how about zimmerman = peavy? tony batista at 3rd. problem solved.

For those of you English purists, Boz in today's chat:

"Pretty remarkable that the Nats are talking about suck "problems" __finding the great player who takes you over the top and makes you a champion WHEN THEY JUST GOT OUT OF LAST PLACE THIS WEEK."

"suck 'problems'" -- probably one of the greatest typos ever... :-)

100-plus posts on a non-Barry-vacation day!

Then again, it IS a Friday in August in Our Nation's Capital... :-)

John in Mpls reflects: "Someone here championed the idea of making Nick a hitting coach some day. I like it."

That was me. Glad you like it. I still like it, too. And if, heaven forfend, Nick can't come back in the lineup, may his day as the Nats' hitting coach come soon.

Longterm, they had to trade all three of those guys for Bartolo, if they had kept even one of them, there wouldn't have been enough food for Colon at the clubhouse buffet.

Rowands' avg has dropped steadily as the year has gone on, and he is not an impact bat whatsoever. notice how when his protection behind/in front of him in the order hit the DL, his production dropped. He is nothing more than Mike Cameron with less speed, less power, and less range.

I really like Boz's column, but I can't bear to reed his chats_ The typo]s and the caps DRIVE ME CRAZY. Also he tends to be JUST A LITTLE DRAMATIC.. =)

I noticed that, too, Juan-John. A classic slip of the fingers. Paging Sigmund Freud to the white courtesy phone.

---

"Pretty remarkable that the Nats are talking about suck "problems" __finding the great player who takes you over the top and makes you a champion WHEN THEY JUST GOT OUT OF LAST PLACE THIS WEEK."

"suck 'problems'" -- probably one of the greatest typos ever... :-)

OK, so we've got Nick Johnson as the hitting coach, and the other day the consensus was that Brian Schneider should also stay on as a coach when his playing days are over. What's next? Maybe Fick should become the first base coach. Wait -- Fick should be kept around because he can coach first, third, or the bench, right?

One nice thing about Barry is that he so rarely makes a spelling or a typographical error.

Put me down for the [RF]-ing usage coach...

Bob L. Head, don't underestimate the usefulness of a utility coach. Also, he can be a late-inning coaching replacement for Tim Tolman to save us outs.

I'm on board for Nick as hitting coach, too, though I hope it'll be later rather than sooner. I wonder whether he isn't already doling out hitting tips now...

Y'all probably saw this already, but just in case:

TV or Not TV? That's a Question for Tomorrow.

Friday, August 24, 2007; E02

With the Redskins taking on the Ravens and the Nationals and Orioles both playing night games, the Washington-Baltimore region has more sporting events tomorrow night than its televisions can handle.

In the Washington area, the Orioles will be on MASN, the Nationals on WDCA-20 and the Redskins-Ravens game will be on WUSA-9, MASN2 and Comcast SportsNet.

In Baltimore, the Orioles' home game against the Minnesota Twins will be telecast on WJZ-13, the Nationals will be on MASN2 and the Redskins-Ravens game will be on WBFF-45, MASN and Comcast SportsNet.

There is no way anyone will find this at all confusing. However, we do suggest you clip this article and tape it to your remote control, just in case.

-- From Staff Reports

This just in: Barry Svrluga has yet to report to the Nats side of the Colorado Rockies clubhouse. In other news, Shawn Hill is searching high and low for his sinker, which seems to have gone missing.

Bob L. Head envisions: "Maybe Fick should become the first base coach. Wait -- Fick should be kept around because he can coach first, third, or the bench, right?"

Absolutely. Lest we forget, Manny was a third-base coach in his most previous life.

Not that Manny should be feeling Rob's hot breath down his neck, but Fick is a guy I really think I wanna keep around.

estuartj, Why do you think Hunter is going to get better over the next 3-5 years? He's a good player, but I really believe his best years are behind him at this point. Let Chicago have him.

I like your lineup especially if we can get Kearns to play CF in the off season, the all Reds thing does bug me a bit. They didn't do much when they were all in Cincy did they?

As long as I'm working as a rumor monger, what would a player like Jake Peavy or Johan Santana require in exchange for a pre-FA trade move similair to what Bowden pulled off with Soriano?

Assuming that SD and MN don't believe they can sign them what would they be looking for in exchange?

NoVa Nat,

One of the biggest questions next year is can Kearns play CF. I think he is hesitant, and with good reason since it isn't his best postion, but I think he could do it and would be replaced in CF by Logan or Watson or some other FA defensive CFer and Kearns would replace Dunn.

It's crious that Bowden has gone after almost every Red POSITION PLAYER he can get his hands on but NOT ONE pitcher? Maybe that alone tells you something about why the Reds never contended with Bowden as GM. Can anyone else give us some solid facts to back up that impression regarding the Reds under Bowden?

estuartj: How about Ryan Wagner? (Groan.)

NJ Nation: How about Ryan Wagner? (Groan.)

You know, the jury is still way out on WMP, but Kearns and Lopez are not the worst we could have in those positions. Better would be better (in the tradition of Yogi), but a couple times today we've seen stats that suggest starting pitching stability has been the difference between contending and not contending.

We could be much, much worse off than if we signed Dunn in the off season. We might be able to be a little better off if we got someone else instead.

Love Fick as the "utility coach."

ESJ, look at what the Braves gave up for Mark Teixeira:

"Braves August 1: Acquired first baseman Mark Teixeira and pitcher Ron Mahay from the Texas Rangers for catcher Jason Saltalamacchia, infielder Elvis Andrus and pitchers Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison and Beau Jones."

Salty was their top prospect and was already playing in the majors, Andrus and Harrison were their #2 and #3 prospects, Jones was #14 and Feliz was #18.

With that said, the Bravos paid a steep price, knowing they had a deep farm system and thinking that Tex was the missing piece from a potential World Series team; they wanted to strike while Smoltz and Chipper and Andruw are still around. Doesn't look like it worked out for them, at least not yet.

Around the trade deadline everyone was saying that teams value top prospects more highly than in the past and won't give them up for rental players. Given the Atlanta example, however, the exception to that might be when the team acquiring the star thinks he's the one to put them over the hump. It might also be the case that young top shelf talent like Tex and Peavy and Santana can still fetch top prospects, whereas older veterans (e.g., Dmitri Young) can't.

Overall, as great as it would be to get Peavy or Santana, I don't think the Nats are in a position to do that yet. Better to pursue The Plan for another year or two and then, if we're one player away at that point, make the big splash then.

One thing that hasn't been clear from the FO is what premium they put on speed? The only two guys on the team right now who are a threat to steal are Logan and Lopez, but they aren't exactly running wild. I wonder how much more willing Manny would be to send runners if he had better bench speed. We might see a little more movement on the basepaths if the Nats bring up guys like Brandon Watson (is he still hurt?), Bernie Castro, etc.

A year ago there was a lot of talk about improving team speed, but now a year later I think we are, if anything, slower.

Going back to the 30-3 game one last time. Did anyone notice that the stRangers left 19 runners on. It could have been a lot worse, but I think they just got tired of driving them in.

Bob L. Head, so if you were the GM for SD or MN and you got a phone call from Jim Bowden inquiring into the possibility of a trade - who would you ask for? For our purposes let's skip the high ball/low ball part of a negotiation and just go for what you think would work.

506: Church is a much better left fielder than Dunn.

Would Dunn's bat make up the difference? Possibly -- and this year, probably. But if Church can slug it in Nats Park, the difference might be close enough that we'd not to want to go fishing for an incremental (and expensive) improvement.

First of all, if I was ever lucky enough to hold and possess Shawn Hill's sinker, I would not hide it. I would caress it and proudly display it for all the world to see.

Secondly, there's a new post breaking down first base. Feel free to move on. I'm late getting over to the park.

Torii Hunter has gotten better each of the last 5 years. Check out his AVG/OBP/SLG:

2003: 250/312/451
2004: 271/330/475
2005: 269/337/452
2006: 278/336/490
2007: 299/343/537

He averaged 134 games played from 2003-2006, with 125 already played this year. I can see picking him up on a 3-5 year contract. He'd definitely help for the next two years. After that, the Nats could trade him to the O's as they always like to pick up aging players.

And can we finally stop whining about trading away Sizemore, Lee and Phillips? At the time, the Expos had gotten the best part of the trade. The Expos were vying for a playoff spot. Lee and Phillips were in AA and Sizemore was in High A. Colon did what he was supposed to when he came to Montreal by going 10-4 with a 3.31 ERA in 17 starts. Trading three minor leaguers (no one ever knows if one minor leaguer will ever pan out let alone three) for a proven major league starter? I would make that trade 99 times out of a 100.

First base post by Barry.

Jeez, I step away for an hour or so (to do some work - novel idea) and this thing explodes.

"A dash of Expos for exotic flavor," and maybe a half-dash of Puerto Rican spice, seeing as half of Expos "home" games were played there in 2004. Thank you, MLB.

When we're talking about Schneider and Johnson as coaches, I think we understand it might not be with the Nats. We're really just acknowledging their baseball intelligence.

Suck problems. Now I'm really sorry I missed the chat. But just for grins, look at your keyboard. C and K aren't even typed with the same hand! Paging Mr. Freud...

If I am GM of MN or SD I'd start with Zimmerman, Balester and another pitching prospect, like one of our recent draft picks or someone from Vermont. (I know we all love Zim here but outside of Nats Nation he might well be regarded simply as a 22-year old with promise who might be an all-star one day, and also might be a guy that hits .275 and 20 dingers with decent defense; in other words, a useful guy but not a franchise guy like Peavy or Santana.)

The Nats wouldn't agree to Zim, but I don't think the other side would do the deal unless it netted them a young player that was MLB-ready and had at least the potential to be an all-star (like Zim).

So maybe the next proposal would be something like Shawn Hill, John Lannan and Marrero.

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