"Schneider knows that, both for himself and for the team, he must finally put up offensive numbers that he believes he is capable of producing."
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I like the guy, too, but "this is a game of fear and arrogance." Not many people succeed in it by having a brutally realistic assessment of their own abilities. "Positive cognitive distortion" is crucial in baseball (and marriages, but that's another blog).

Of course, I could be wrong about that. What do I know? I'm just some joker posting on a blog.

Is there any talk of a platoon behind the plate next year since Flores is a righty and Brian is a lefty? Schneider would get the majority of the starts, but it would give Flores more opportunities to prove himself.

What about making him a player-coach, giving Schneider a clear stake in the club that would continue even when his playing days are done.... I feel like between him and St. Randy, the Nats have one of the best pitching-grooming operations in the game. Surely he would want to be a part of the franchise after his playing days are done; surely the front office doesn't want his talents exploited elsewhere....

Could we get starting pitcher stats with that, please (heh-heh)?

---
First, give thanks to whatever power you give thanks to that your team did not give up 30(!!!!!) runs yesterday.

Nats bullpen vs. Astros: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K.

Orioles bullpen vs. Rangers (game 1): 4 IP, 20 H, 24 R, 24 ER, 7 BB, 7 K, 166 pitches

"What about making him a player-coach"

It pains me to hear this already. At the very least, as Barry says, we should put off that kind of talk until 2009.

As for platooning, it's my impression they've seen probably 90% of what they need to see out of Flores. The only thing left to check out is what happens when he plays every day. Platooning won't necessarily answer that question.

By the way, I think it's very classy for Schneider to be so supportive and instructive to Flores when he knows the kid is breathing down his neck.

One possible explanation for Schneider's higher pitcher ERA: He's catching the newbies, cast-offs and try-outs that have patched our pitching together all year.

Although I realize Flores has almost solely been a day-game catcher, seems to me he also has been maneuvered to catch mostly veterans in those starts (intentional or not).

My impression is that when Lannan, Hanrahan, Chico (early), and others were scheduled to pitch on Sunday/day, Manny either batted Flores on Saturday night or adjusted the rotation to have Schneider catch. The intention of these moves was highlighted when Hanrahan's game in Philly was to come the day after a 12-inning(?) marathon that Schneider valiantly played through.

Love 'em both, and think we got a STEAL in Flores as a Rule 5! He hasn't looked overmatched this year, even when he has struggled, and I'd definitely like to see him get regular time, even in AA or AAA with the up-and-comers.

Well, if they really think Flores is the catcher of the future -- they should decide what is best for his development long term, regardless of Schneider or the 2008 prospects of the Nats.

We also need to get some more catchers in the fold. I am guessing that next year Flores plays everyday in the minors and develops, while Schneider plays up here with a veteran back-up. Then in 2009, Flores comes up if he earns it and Schneider can decide if he wants to become the veteran back-up or go else-where via trade.

Everyone talks about how Wily Mo Pena has the struggles that he has at this point in his career because his contract didn't allow him to get the minor league development that he needed. We have a chance to do the right thing by Flores, so lets be patient and do it.

There's another variable in this equation that Barry didn't touch on. A team needs to carry two (if not three) catchers with the assumption that at least one of the backups will see a fair amount of playing time due to the extreme physical demands of the position (day game after a night game, etc). If Flores goes down to AAA next year, which indeed might be the best thing for his development in the long run, then who is the backup catcher next year? Please don't say Fick. He needs to be gone next year. This points to a need for the Nationals to pick up a backup catcher during the offseason. Who is out there that they could get? I think the answer to this question is what will drive the decision on where to play Flores next year.

This is not an easy one for me. Schneider is one of my two favorite players on this team. While Flores is my favorite future player.
I would suggest Flores play in AA next year with the young tallent and keep Fick/Harper as a backup for 2008. No, Fick is not the best backup, but he is better than LeCroy.

So while I agree that Schneider's offensive numbers aren't where they should/could be, the Ivan Rodrigez's of the league are few and far between. A club will always say that they count on a catcher for his durability, defense, and ability to handle a pitching staff before his offensive numbers. I did a quick and dirty comparison of Schneider's offensive numbers compared to the rest of the NL and here's what I found:

(Minimum 150 Plate appearances - 21 players as of 8/22)

BA:

Bschneid: .231
Rank: 18
NL Avg: .254
Difference: -.020

HR:

Bschneid: 6
Rank: 11
NL Avg: 7
Difference: -1

RBI:

Bschneid: 41
Rank: 11
NL Avg: 37
Difference: +4

BB:

Bschneid: 41
Rank: 2
NL Avg: 23
Difference: +23

OBP:

Bschneid: .321
Rank: 10
NL Avg: .314
Difference: +.007

SLG:

Bschneid: .331
Rank: 19
NL Avg: .386
Difference: -.055

OPS:

Bschneid: 652
Rank: 17
NL Avg: .700
Difference: -.048

So granted you'd like to see him gain 20 points on his BA and bring his power numbers up but he's not off-the-charts terrible in any of these categories. Based on the NL average you're not going to see a significant increase in production by replacing him.

My point being there are only so many Russell Martin's, Jorge Posada's, and Joe Mauer's out there. I submit to you all that Brian's lack of offensive production is not as important as the lack of power and production they've seen from say the corner outfield positions. Power hitting OFs are in far greater number than Cs.

Oops... forgot to sign the previous long-winded statistical post... that was mine.

Hey Barry --

take the games where Schneider caught John Patterson, Jerome Williams (remember him?), Jason Simontacchi and Levale Speigner and re-calculate his catcher's ERA. I'll bet it's near the top of the league's!

MKevin, I like that stat. The other thing we've said about Schneider is that he's been a savior of the pitching staff with his great game calling.

The Catcher's ERA doesn't show that, because that statistic shows what the ERA is and not what it probably should have been.

Why is Flores' over a point lower? This is a far more interesting question. Better starters might be it. We might want to take a look at who started those 60 games.

I also remember Nook Logan used to bat something like 150 points higher during the day or something outrageous like that. I know Earned Runs aren't supposed to take that in account, but batters losing a game bat differently than batters winning a game.

This is a really, really interesting comparison. Schneider is no doubt a better catcher in my mind, but that he should average a whole extra run over nine is curious. The numbers don't lie, but sometimes they are very opaque.

Another thing to point out is that many of Flores' plate appearances have been as a pinch hitter. If you judge him only in games in which he's appeared as a starter, he's a better hitter:

According to Yahoo!, Flores is hitting .150 (3 for 20) as a pinch hitter and .245 (25 for 102) otherwise.

By the way, Schneider is hitting .000 (0 for 4) as a pinch hitter and .234 (78 for 334) otherwise. His splits aren't any better--he's hitting .213 against lefties and .238 against righties.

(Flores is .254 against lefties and .203 against righties).

Barry offered:

"... he [Flores] is, like Schneider, struggling to stay afloat offensively."

... but Flores is on his way up in his career and Brian is on his way down. In fact Brian has slipped from last year, and I'd expect the same would be true for the years 2006 - 07. I.E. Jesus projects to get better offensively while Brian looks the other way.

... Brian's catcher ERA is higher because he is in the games or the parts of the games where the most runs are scored. I assume Jesus' stats include those innings when he finishes out games in which the scoring is all but finished.

... all in all, this is a great way to evaluate who we have. After reading it, I'm not at all disappointed in having Jesus as the up-and-comer. I still feel he should play in DC next year as the 'equal platoon' catcher. He should be very active in a developmental winter ball league.

... but then again, what do I know?

Well said GoNats, that was exactly what I was going to say.

I wish we had LeCroy back instead of Fick, if we can find a back-p infielder who can double as an emergency catcher AND actually hit the ball that would be great, they would probably have to fill in Batista's spot on the roster.

More likely they'll have Flores play everday in Columbus or Harrisburg (probably depending more on Detwiler, Alandiz, Pena, Gibson, Zimmerman and Wilems than his own potential) and they'll sign a solid veteran catcher, probably a righty with a low cash 1 year deal with an club option for another year. That guy will probably only play once a week or so and get very few ABs for the year.

As for Schneider's offense, well he isn't totally worthless, but he shold get very used to batting 8th, I'm guessing (and hoping) that he will have no hope of moving up in the line-up, even if his numbers improve because the other hitters ahead of him are just too good. Maybe if the 5-7 guys are producung more he'll get more pitches to hit, even with the pitcher behind him, since they'll be more men on base...

"One possible explanation for Schneider's higher pitcher ERA: He's catching the newbies, cast-offs and try-outs that have patched our pitching together all year."

Flores gets many get-away day starts. Other teams might not be playing their best hitters. A factor to consider.

That's a great idea really. Have Flores develop alongside the future pitching stars of the Nationals so that when we comes back up to the bigs, he already has established a repoire with guys like Gibson, etc... Schneider and Hill and Redding obviously work well together so keep that going for now.

I think Barry could do a whole post just on the state of our minor league pitching. I'd be very curious to know what the projected debut in the majors is for guys like Detwiler, and more interesting guys like Pena, Alandiz and Zimmerman (college guys) and what is ahead for Wilems Gibson, Mcgeary, Smoker, etc right out of HS.
This will have a real influence on where Flores plays next year.

Many thanks for the information and analysis, Mr. S.

And my compliments: between this blog and the amount of copy you turn out for the various electronic and dead tree editions of the Post, I get exhausted just reading your work.

My own catching days ended with my high school graduation so I'm hardly qualified to make these assessments...

...like THAT's going to stop me!

But I see Flores as an exciting talent with great potential. A rough talent, however, requiring polishing. Flores needs to play 100+ games next year, and the best place to do that would be in the minor leagues. Send him there with the understanding that he'll be back after he's gotten some more experience.

Schneider is not done yet. He should be the #1 catcher of this club for another year or two at least, with a veteran backup (picked up as a free agent or via a trade during the offseason) giving Schneider one or two games off per week so he can rest those aching knees. (Remember, Hendo, while you're in Australia where the emu are, that emu oil is good for aching knees and other joints.)

As for the longest-term future, catchers do wear out faster than other players (although, did anyone else see Sandy Alomar behind the plate for the Mets last week?) but when that time comes to hang up the mask, I recall once seeing a stat that more catchers have become major league managers than any other position.

Veteran backup catchers with decent defensive skills and not under contract are usually available for a modest cost in the off season. Don't expect them to hit much--if they could, they wouldn't be on the list. My guess is such a player would be available--Lieberthal, Moeller, DeFelice, Damian Miller, Castro, Blanco, etc. None would be as good as Flores would be next year, IMO, but that probably isn't relevant to where he will play next year.

These stats are a little deceiving. Schneider has a much larger sample size to choose from (Schneider at 99 games started vice Flores at 28)

Of course Scheider's "ERA" is going to be higher, a better pitchers line for Flores will have a greater impact on his overall ERA.

Flores was a GREAT pickup in the Rule and I am a huge fan, but he is not ready for the Show. I don't think, however, that he needs to be put in AA either. He has shown that he can pretty much hang with the big boys, next year he needs to catch everyday in AAA quite possibly in 09. After Schneiders contract is up he can resign as a vet backup or move on. At 21, there is no reasonn to Rush Flores. Let him play and beat up the other kids on the Farm.

Who was that guy who was going to go to school, but then got the call last year? Let's see him back next year as Schneider's backup and give Flores every day in AAA or AA, depending on where 2009's pitchers are playing.

On getting to the P-Nats from DC (for G-Town), here's what I do:

First, I leave as early as I can get away with it. Leaving Georgetown at 4:30 for a 7:30 first pitch would not be excessive.

I start out using the same route I would use to get to National Airport. From Georgetown, this might be M Street or Q Street to 23rd, then down to Memorial Bridge.

Then I head south on George Washington Memorial Parkway, *past* the airport into Old Town Alexandria. There are a few lights, but the backup is usually not nearly as bad as on Route 1.

A couple blocks past King Street come the signs for US 1 / I-95 South. I forget the exact cross street, but you need to turn right when the US 1 / I-95 signs say to do so, then hug the left lane for about three blocks, then turn left with the rest of your thousand friends and neighbors.

As this point, I do NOT get on I-95, but instead use the left lanes to stay on Route 1 southbound all the way into Woodbridge.

In 15 miles, give or take (you may wonder if you missed the turn), just past another intersection with I-95 and just past the Prince William County line, comes an intersection with Route 123. Right turn (north) here.

A mile or so later, and past another intersection with I-95, comes Old Bridge Road. (There are three left-turn lanes here.) Make a left here, go about six miles (keeping straight ahead after Old Bridge turns into Prince William Parkway) and the stadium will be on your right. If fortune smiles and you're way early at this point, you can stop at one of the 814 conveniently situated mega-mini-malls along the way and pick up some water or grab a bite to eat.

WARNING! Google or MapQuest first (but, I'm tellin' ya, Route 1 in Old Town Alex is a bear; the Parkway is usually better until you're past King Street). Also check out traffic on washingtonpost.com.

Good luck, G-Town, and let me know if this helps.

My vote: Flores to start at AA or AAA next year to get at bats. Schneider to play 120 games. Sign/Trade for a right handed batting backup catcher with good catching/defensive skills.

Schneider is not a bad hitter against lefties most years. Although he is currently batting .213 against lefties and .238 vs. righties, for his carrer he is batting .248 (vs LH) and .253 (vs. RH). He actually hit .271 against LH last year (.251 vs RH). So the platoon thing may not be needed as much as a reduced workload would be helpful.

Bottom line: I want him on the team and behind the plate most nights. Until a Brian McCann or Russell Martin drops into our laps, Schneider should be the man. Keep him, play him, rest him, repeat. Solve the offense problem at the other positions.

That would be CHAD MOELLER, formerly of the Reds, now with LAD? There's Bowden-bait for you.

_____
My guess is such a player would be available--Lieberthal, Moeller, DeFelice, Damian Miller, Castro, Blanco, etc.
Posted by: Section 418 | August 23, 2007 01:24 PM

I'm willing to accept that the Nats need to look for Schneider's eventual successor but a replacement seems unnecessary unless you draft/trade/sign a catcher with the kind of offensive pedigree that provides an immediate, significant impact. If the Nats brass thinks they have their catcher of the future in Flores then next year he belongs in AA/AAA learning how to hit consistently and playing everyday rather than riding the pine or splitting time with the major league club. If it clicks for him at the lower levels and he starts putting up the offensive numbers the Nats think he's capable of he'll force his way back into the conversation. But until that happens you accept the offense that Schneider can give you and sign any of the usual suspects as a veteran backup or make a big splash in the FA market - there are plenty of C's available this off season.

So, the emerging consensus seems to be that (a) Schneider is in the middle of the pack of catchers, is more than serviceable through 2009 and should be kept around, maybe even after that in a reduced role; and (b) Flores should go down and catch the young hurlers for a year or two and fine tune his offense, returning as the starter in 2009 or 2010, hopefully along with some of those young hurlers as well as our missing top-of-the-order CF and 40-HR bat.

NatBisquit - "Bottom line: I want him on the team and behind the plate most nights. Until a Brian McCann or Russell Martin drops into our laps, Schneider should be the man. Keep him, play him, rest him, repeat. Solve the offense problem at the other positions."

Well said.

506 (AM) asks, "Why is Flores' over a point lower? This is a far more interesting question."

Steve answers, "These stats are a little deceiving. Schneider has a much larger sample size to choose from (Schneider at 99 games started vice Flores at 28)."

Statistically speaking, this is very important. While we can look at Brian Schneider's career numbers - which are based on seasons where he has been the number one catcher - we can only try to project the production of Flores based on his 28 games in the bigs, where he has been a backup.

I do think it's ironic, though, that Scheider's defensive numbers are lower than those of Flores, while Flores trails Scheider with the bat. It's kind of the opposite of what our intuitions had told us.

There are some points here that are not tainted by the small sample size, though. For example:

Age: 22
Contract: $380,000, cannot be a free agent until after 2012 season at earliest

--and--

Prospects in the system: None

Awesome and yikes, respectively.

O's ERA casualties:

Cabrera 4.93 to 5.10
Burres 4.45 to 5.24
Bell 4.18 to 6.14
Shuey 6.75 to 9.49

From Nats Notes on the official site:

"Schneider ranks second in the Majors in throwing out would-be basestealers in the last three-plus seasons with 102 (behind the Yankees Jorge Posada with 113). From 2004-2006, Schneider trailed only the Cardinals Yadier Molina in percentage of runners thrown out, 36.9 to 45.9."

Hendo's directions are good to follow, however I would make one change. He wrote that while on the GW Parkway,

"A couple blocks past King Street come the signs for US 1 / I-95 South. I forget the exact cross street, but you need to turn right when the US 1 / I-95 signs say to do so, then hug the left lane for about three blocks, then turn left with the rest of your thousand friends and neighbors.

As this point, I do NOT get on I-95, but instead use the left lanes to stay on Route 1 southbound all the way into Woodbridge."

I would suggest staying on the GW Parkway all the way through Old Town and take it all the way to the end. Go past the Mansion at Mount Vernon, then take the road all the way down to Rte. 1. This eliminates all the stoplights on Rte. 1 in Alexandria and it drops you off right before Fort Belvoir.

Just my two cents.

Love Schneider, Love Flores,

As seems to be the consensus, keep schneider in the bigs, put flores in the minors, sign a usable vet backstop. When flores starts putting up numbers that cant be ignored you move him to the show and schneider becomes the vet backstop. As schneider's career winds down you offer him a position in coaching. This doesnt work if schneider would rather leave then back up flores. Hopefully the whole thing will be moot because we'll draft the next pudge rodriguez or mike piazza next year. Here's hoping.

P.S. I dont see what all this arguing about finding a quality center fielder is about when you look at the rest of the outfield. Yes logan is unpolished and frankly not that good. However, he is hitting, even if its just singles, and he's been improving steadily. This is more then i can say about our corner outfield positions who are sitting at a combined 21 homers between them.

I like church and i like kearns and i understand that they both have potential but lets start to see some of it. I would prefer to turn one of the into a bench player and pick up someone with stats far above the leauge average for the corner positions because that's where the offense is supposed to come from. Right now church and kearns both look like replacement players while nook sometimes resembles a shadow of a starter.

Agree with consensus, and with NatsNut's take on the Schneid as one very classy guy (can you tell he's one of my fave Nats?). I also agree with the comments on the sample size for Flores (tip o' the cap to lies, d***** lies, and statistics).

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VT Nats Fun summarized: As seems to be the consensus, keep schneider in the bigs, put flores in the minors, sign a usable vet backstop. When flores starts putting up numbers that cant be ignored you move him to the show and schneider becomes the vet backstop. As schneider's career winds down you offer him a position in coaching. This doesnt work if schneider would rather leave then back up flores.

I see in Flores a young Jorge Posada with MUCH better catcher's mechanics. If the Nats want him to hit like Jorge Posada he could certainly use a season of regular plate appearances (in the minors.)

Schneider is what he is. A first-rate defensive catcher and a .250 hitter with a little bit of pop. For the 2008 (and 9?) Nats that should be exactly what they want.

e, that's what I would do, too. It was my usual route when I was commuting from Springfield to Alexandria. It's also a lovely drive...

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I would suggest staying on the GW Parkway all the way through Old Town and take it all the way to the end. Go past the Mansion at Mount Vernon, then take the road all the way down to Rte. 1. This eliminates all the stoplights on Rte. 1 in Alexandria and it drops you off right before Fort Belvoir.

WMP and Adam Dunn will play the corners next year, Logan will be the 4th OF and left handed pinch hitter.

Church will be traded to San Diego as part of an 8 player deal including Tim Redding and several Minor leaguers for Jake Peavy.

Juuust a little bit outside, NatsNut. But I like it!!

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O's ERA casualties:

Cabrera 4.93 to 5.10
Burres 4.45 to 5.24
Bell 4.18 to 6.14
Shuey 6.75 to 9.49

I don't have a lot to add to this discussion, especially when it comes to discussing statistics... but that's never stopped me before!

John in Mpls commented about the lack of a prospect in the minors... it is scary, but barring a catastrophic injury, that could be addressed in next year's draft, and nobody would stress too much about it. By the way, John, didja make it to Rochester to visit Nick?

There is a great picture from Spring Training, with Bowden, Acta and Schneider standing around talking... I tried to find it online, but couldn't... It is a Washington Post photo (I saw it recently on WashingtonPost Live) and I think that one picture sums up how I feel about Schneider... that his value to the team goes way beyond the basic statistics. The team should give him every opportunity (not that they haven't) to play and be a productive member of the team... and at the same time, they should do everything they can to groom Flores, which probably means the minors... for next year.

VT Nats Fan: "Right now church and kearns both look like replacement players while nook sometimes resembles a shadow of a starter."

I too am frustrated and concerned about the lack of production from the corner outfield. However, they did just pick up WMP and Austin Kearns is a very good, bordering on exceptional defensive OF. He's shown in the past he could hit for power and average in Cincy. He's publicly admitted that he's beyond frustrated with the dimensions at RFK. If Stan Kasten can parlay his historical relationship with Andruw Jones into a FA signing or snag Aaron Rowand from Philly let's get it done in CF and give the corner combo of AK and WMP a year in the new stadium before acting.

The new stadium throws a huge unknown wrinkle into this whole conversation about offense. You know RFK has had a dramatic negative impact on Zimmerman's numbers this season as well. I'd be willing to bet the sum of the total impact across the roster will be like adding a 10th bat to the lineup next season. Addition by relocation.

Hats off to Barry on the first install, love it. Also, love MKevin's extra stats, nice work.

It all shows that Schneider is above average defensively and exactly average offensively. That's a good starter. He might be a little over paid for that but then again he's proven so probably deserves it. Plus, everyone loves him and he's a team leader, that matters.

I would like to see analysis of how guys came through the minors. Will Flores be better off catching 130 games at Columbus or 45 games in DC? I have no idea. But if you send him to Columbus for '08, I agree w/ others that back up catchers are a dime a dozen in the off season.

As for outfielders. Have to give Kearns a try in the new park in RF. Keep Church at least as 4th OF. If Pena finishes strong then give him him '08 in LF or at least until Marerro is ready. Have to sign a stud in CF. I vote for Rowand, he's a stud and it weakens a division rival.

Honestly, I actually thought about driving down there.

"Hiya, Nick, remember me from section 549 last year?"

-----

By the way, John, didja make it to Rochester to visit Nick?

mlwagnercpa: "I vote for Rowand, he's a stud and it weakens a division rival."

Agreed. Signing Jones away from ATL would also hurt a division rival but he's in a tailspin offensively this season plus he's a Boras client so that's a nightmare of offseason negotiations while other FA CFs sign elsewhere. I think Rowand is a much more likely candidate.

"If Stan Kasten can parlay his historical relationship with Andruw Jones into a FA signing..."

MKevin: Have you SEEN Andruw's batting average lately? Plus, he's become the Jose Guillen of entitled, apathetic veterans, only he'd be more expensive.

MKevin, I like all those points except the Andruw Jones one (on a career-ending slide in pretty much every possible category) and Aaron Rowand's strangely goofy batting stance (although I'll take the numbers that come from the stance).

However, I completely agree that we have an absolutely unknown quantity in what we're getting starting early next spring. Different home dimensions may completely change the kind of hitters that we presently have on the team. For instance, I think Zimmerman could easily be pushing 30 homers himself on a consistent basis (not a stretch since he's at 19 right now while calling RFK home, and with six weeks to go this season).

I'm sluggish, anemic, and down to .214... Somebody help me.

NatsNut: "Have you SEEN Andruw's batting average lately? Plus, he's become the Jose Guillen of entitled, apathetic veterans, only he'd be more expensive."

I noted above he's in a tailspin this season. I'd be excited only if he can be signed at a big discount based on his down season and previous relationship with Kasten. I think the Boras factor makes that all moot however and AJ will probably wind up resigning with ATL very late in the offseason.

Just throwing some names out there, in addition to those that have been mentioned prominently (Torii Hunter, Rowand, Dunn), of players that might be available, either as FAs or via trades given the positions they currently find themselves in on their respective teams:

Luis Castillo, 2b, Mets
Chris Burke, 2b/cf, Astros
Corey Patterson, cf, Os
Darrin Erstad, cf, ChiSox
Ryan Freel, cf, Commies
Vernon Wells, cf, Toronto
Mike Cameron, cf, San Diego

If you look around the league, as I just did, scouting for impact players that would fill our needs, you will find a lot more "spare parts" like these than you will impact players. I suspect this is part of the reason why we decided to retain our own spare parts in Meat and Belly (both of whom I like, but as role players not core players). There's just not much out there.

Put me in the "Sign Rowand" camp, I think he would be a good fit on this team, batting second. If we could find someone to lead off and play second or short (i.e., someone better than Lopez/Guzman), go for it, but nobody is going to give us a Jose Reyes. Might take a flyer on Burke, if he's available, solely on the grounds that (a) he's still relatively young; (b) he can play 2b or cf (i.e., insurance for when Rowand runs through a fence); and (c) he's a former highly touted prospect with speed that has never really gotten a shot to play a full season as a regular.

We still need a power bat, but I'm not high on Dunn, particularly at his salary, he seems a bit soft.

Let's look at WMP (with Church and Logan as backups) in 2008 and see what the market, and our team, looks like at the trade deadline next year.

True. Andruw *would* likely come pretty cheap.

Still, even though we're talking about filling CF with an experienced veteran, we should at least spend the money on someone still on the upswing in his career.

(Tor-ii, Tor-ii, Tor-ii)

Just to refresh our collective memories on what Guzman was doing for the first several months of the season, he was a triples machine, relatively consistent at short, and generating more offense than anyone else on the team during that time period, including Dmitri.

Not that I'm a Guzman apologist or fan club member, but one thing that keeps getting mentioned is his replacement (presumably better or more talented). To be honest, I think he earned another shot through his early play this year (including finishing that game with his thumb hanging halfway off). While he hadn't shown that kind of performance for us before on any kind of extended basis, I think it could be repeated if he was healthy...

Now as for Felipe, who has been healthily underproducing for most of the season (and that terrible, abominable, atrocious baserunning error last night... as bad or worse than Nook's 6/23 fiasco).

Bob L. Head: "We still need a power bat, but I'm not high on Dunn, particularly at his salary, he seems a bit soft."

Agreed. Plus it seems they've already committed to a big power/high strike out guy in WMP. They need someone who can hit for average and power. Vernon Wells could be that guy but he too is having a down year.

faNATic: if Guzman comes into the spring healthy he's your starting SS next season. He was well on his way to comeback player of the year before getting hurt. I really felt horrible for him when he went down this year. I've never been much of a Lopez fan. If we're taking Rowand already why not keep picking on the Phils and sign FA Iguchi?

Guzman's numbers early this season (.329/.382/.468) were WAY above his career numbers (.263/.302/.378). He did hit triples and steal bases in 2000-01, but really hasn't done much since then, and he'll be 30 in March. I'm rooting for the guy, but realistically, there's not much upside here.

faNATic: Don't discount Felipe's defense. Aren't we leading, or at least close to leading, in double plays turned?

Stats guys?

BobL, you have been bouncing your head too much. Vernon Wells is neither a spare part or available anytime soon.

The Nats are 8th in the majors with 127 DPs.

Just found this updated list on mlbtraderumors.com, reportedly updated today:

Catchers
Brad Ausmus (39)
Michael Barrett (31)
Ramon Castro (32)
Jason Kendall (34)
Paul Lo Duca (36)
Jorge Posada (36)
Jose Molina (33)
Ivan Rodriguez (36) - $13MM club option for '08
Yorvit Torrealba (30)

First basemen
Sean Casey (34)
Tony Clark (36)
Adam Dunn (28) - $13MM club option for '08
Darin Erstad (34) - $3.5MM club option for '08
Scott Hatteberg (38) - $1.85MM club option for '08
Ryan Klesko (37)
Mike Lamb (33)
Doug Mientkiewicz (34)

Second basemen
Luis Castillo (32)
Damion Easley (38)
Marcus Giles (30) - $4MM club option for '08
Tadahito Iguchi (33)
Mark Loretta (37)
Kaz Matsui (32)
Jose Valentin (38)

Shortstops
David Eckstein (33)
Cesar Izturis (28) - $5.45MM club option for '08
Juan Uribe (29) - $5MM club option for '08
Omar Vizquel (41)

Third basemen
Pedro Feliz (33)
Mike Lamb (32)
Mike Lowell (34)
Alex Rodriguez (32) - Has ability to opt out of contract after season

Left fielders
Moises Alou (42) - $7.5MM club option for '08
Barry Bonds (43)
Milton Bradley (30)
Adam Dunn (28) - $13MM club option for '08; becomes free agent after season if traded
Cliff Floyd (35) - mutual option for '08
Luis Gonzalez (40)
Geoff Jenkins (33) - $9MM club option for '08
Reggie Sanders (40)
Shannon Stewart (34)
Brad Wilkerson (31)

Center fielders
Milton Bradley (30)
Mike Cameron (35)
Darin Erstad (34) - $3.5MM club option for '08
Torii Hunter (32)
Andruw Jones (31)
Kenny Lofton (41)
Corey Patterson (28)
Aaron Rowand (30)

Right fielders
Bobby Abreu (34) - $16MM club option for '08
Milton Bradley (30)
Kosuke Fukudome (31)
Shawn Green (35) - $10MM club option for '08
Jose Guillen (32) - $9MM club option for '08
Geoff Jenkins (33) - $9MM club option for '08
Trot Nixon (34)
Reggie Sanders (40)

DHs
Barry Bonds (43)
Mike Piazza (39)
Sammy Sosa (39)
Mike Sweeney (34)

Starting pitchers
Tony Armas (30) - $5MM mutual option for '08
Kris Benson (33) - $7.5MM club option for '08
Paul Byrd (37) - $8MM club option for '08
Shawn Chacon (30)
Roger Clemens (46)
Matt Clement (33)
Bartolo Colon (35)
Josh Fogg (31)
Casey Fossum (30)
Freddy Garcia (32)
Tom Glavine (42) - $9MM player option for '08
Livan Hernandez (33)*
Jason Jennings (29)
Joe Kennedy (29)
Byung-Hyun Kim (29)
Brian Lawrence (32)
Jon Lieber (38)
Kyle Lohse (29)
Rodrigo Lopez (32)
Greg Maddux (42) - $8.75MM player option or $11MM club option for '08
Eric Milton (32)
Tomo Ohka (32)
Russ Ortiz (34)
Odalis Perez (31) - $9MM club option for '08
Andy Pettitte (36) - $16MM player option for '08
Joel Pineiro (29)
Kenny Rogers (43)
Curt Schilling (41)
Carlos Silva (29)
Julian Tavarez (35) - $3.85MM club option for '08
John Thomson (34)
Brett Tomko (35) - $4.5MM mutual option for '08
Steve Trachsel (37) - $4.75MM club option for '08
Koji Uehara (33)
Jeff Weaver (31)
David Wells (45)
Kip Wells (31)
Randy Wolf (31) - $9MM club option for '08
Jamey Wright (34)
Jaret Wright (32)

Closers
Armando Benitez (35)
Joe Borowski (37) - $4MM club option for '08
Francisco Cordero (33)
Octavio Dotel (32) - $5.5MM mutual option for '08
Eric Gagne (32)
Jason Isringhausen (35) - $8MM club option for '08
Todd Jones (40)
Al Reyes (37) - $1MM club option for '08
Mariano Rivera (38)
Bob Wickman (39)

Middle relievers
Jeremy Affeldt (29)
Antonio Alfonseca (36)
LaTroy Hawkins (35)
Jorge Julio (29)
Joe Kennedy (29)
Scott Linebrink (31)
Troy Percival (39)
David Riske (31) - $2.85MM club option for '08
Russ Springer (39)
Julian Tavarez (35) - $3.85MM club option for '08
Mike Timlin (42)
Luis Vizcaino (31)
Kerry Wood (31)

I would like to throw a name in the ring for center field. He is not quite ready but should ready by 2009. This guy has better numbers than Manero. - Justin Maxwell. - Five tool guy -

MKevin: "The Nats are 8th in the majors with 127 DPs."

Posted by: MKevin | August 23, 2007 03:28 PM
______

We'd probably rank a lot higher in DPs, if we didn't we contribute so many GIDPs to the other 7 teams (ahem...cough...Ryan Zimmerman..cough).

"BobL, you have been bouncing your head too much. Vernon Wells is neither a spare part or available anytime soon."

GoNats is right. I thought I remembered seeing Wells' name in trade rumors, but that must have been last fall because he signed a huge contract before the season.

Boing boing, wobble wobble.

NatsNut, I'm not discounting Felipe's defense (solid range; fairly strong, if slightly errant arm), which has certainly helped our DP and defensive stats in the infield. I have to confess, however, that I think our DP stats have been padded by Belliard's fairly impressive performance at 2nd (in both starting and turning double plays), and Guzman's play at short prior to his injury. Additionally, Zimmerman contributes to that stat as well for DPs that he initiates.

In sum, defensively, Felipe is a fairly valuable part of a productive DP whole. As with all players that we're discussing however, there's more to the analysis than one small facet of his defensive work. His offensive troubles this season are fairly well documented, and he seems to have mental gaffes (of the type we often ascribe to Nook) on a somewhat routine basis as well. Last night's ill-conceived attempt to leg out a triple was just the most recent example.

The number of DPs turned has a lot to do with the number of ground balls hit by opposing batters. You need a pitching staff built around inducing the ground ball to get the opportunity to turn the DP.

Yes the success of the DP is largely up to the defense up the middle but take a guess at who's last in DPs in the majors....

The Mets with 96. I don't think anyone is questioning the defense of the Reyes/Castillo combo.

Rather than DP look at FPCT:

Mets - last in the majors in DP - 9th in the majors in FPCT
Nats - 8th in the majors in DP - 19th in the majors in FPCT

Ryan Zimmerman: MLB GIDP leader at 24.

Okay. I'm outta my league now. What's FPCT??

I bet you find correlations between staff strikeouts and double plays (more k's, less dp) and between hits & walks allowed and double plays.

We get so many DP's because we allow so many runners on first. The Mets don't.

NatNut: "Ryan Zimmerman: MLB GIDP leader at 24."

EEESSHHHHHH!!!! At least he's in good company:

Carlos Lee - 21
Albert Pujols - 21
Derek Jeter - 20
Manny Ramirez - 20

NatsNut: FPCT = fielding percentage

I'm surprised Bill James hasn't invented some stat for Success Percentage in Double Play Situations or something like that.

Anyways, does anyone think that sending Flores back to the minors after a year in the majors could hurt him mentally? He sits through a year at RFK but then has to hang out in Columbus while his old teammates live it up in the new digs?

GoNats: "Anyways, does anyone think that sending Flores back to the minors after a year in the majors could hurt him mentally? He sits through a year at RFK but then has to hang out in Columbus while his old teammates live it up in the new digs?"

I doubt it. As much as it's been speculated this season that he's going to the minors next year you'd have to think they've prepared him for it. As a Rule-5 draftee he's kinda gotta be expecting it. I'd think he'd welcome the opportunity to play everyday. He's not making any more or less $$$ either way so you'd hope he'd see it as an opportunity.

GIDP is a pretty deceiving stat as well, totally dependent on the lineup around you.

For instance, Carlos Lee is 3rd with 21 GIDP (we'd take him in our outfield); Pujols is tied with him at 21 (the truth: we'd take him over Dmitri, although apparently his own coach wouldn't; see All-Star game); Derek Jeter and Manny Ramirez are coming in at 20 GIDP apiece (we wouldn't turn down the production of either one if they dropped in our laps).

The verdict: GIDP is not necessarily a great stat to measure a player by - though your underlying point as to inning and rally kills by the offending players is entirely valid.

That being said, Zimmerman needs to continue to refine his eye and he'll be just fine. Nights like last night don't help (crafty veteran pitcher, umpire with a highly debatable lower portion of the strike zone).

That wasn't off topic, Nut, it was ironically on topic. And may I reassign my "yikes" from earlier? Yikes.

I guess we've come to a bit of a consensus on Schneider, since we seem to have moved back to the CF situation. I'd love for Hunter to be the FA the Nats go after this year, but I'm geographically biased. You guys probably get to see a lot more out of Rowand, while I get to see Hunter almost every day. In addition to being what the Nats need on offense and in center, he's an absolutely great guy, and every one of you would fall in love with him. It'd be a good thing for the club to have such a media-friendly face.

Then again, I did go to Maryland, so I'm also pulling for Maxwell (thank you, mjames). Maybe not in 2008, but hopefully before too long.

Haha, nice work MKevin, you picked out the exact same players I did for my point... I was busy typing while you'd posted.

Also consider BSch K with RISP and GIDP. It 'seems' that he does poorly in those categories as well. And noticeable to the fans that I talk to is the lack of an "eye of the tiger" ... no apparent on-field frustration.

Flores won't be hurt mentally by going down. He knows he has a future here and knows why he was kept in the bigs all year. What I worry about, in a good way, is what happens if he lights it up in AA/AAA and feels he deserves a call-up?

Another scenario, if he's in AA/AAA, and Schneider gets hurt for a while - does Flores come in and start while the veteran backup rests him? Obviously that depends on the veteran backup and Flores's performance, but something that'll be interesting to see.

I'm really hoping he finds that swing working for him with regular playing time. I really like that kid, and he has a cannon!

I could be a similar thing about Barry if the rumors are true. Write about the sweet new press box, but never get to use it?

Are the rumors true? Do we have confirmation yet?

-----

He sits through a year at RFK but then has to hang out in Columbus while his old teammates live it up in the new digs?

Anytime you can have a Terrapin alum patrolling the outfield you are in good shape. Let's see....if he makes it to the majors he could be the first successful Terp MLB outfielder since Ron Swoboda.

What rumors? Where does one hear rumors about sports reporters?

faNATic - sorry for the preemptive post ;) Just happened to be one of the few times I got to the point without waxing poetically on and on and on and on....

"We get so many DP's because we allow so many runners on first. The Mets don't."

This is the dirty secret of the DP stat. DP per Opportunity (runner on first, ball on the ground, but not bunted) would be a much, much more valuable statistic.

Here's a question related to AAA:

What is the process for using a player's option. We act like it's a life-shattering event, but presumably ball players aren't all children and managers aren't all crappy at interpersonal skills and sometime or other there has been a manager who has coherently explained from an organizational perspective that "it's not you, it's us" or "it is you, but we expect it to be a temporary thing" without crushing the player he is sending down.

Flores is a great example and so is Chico. I have some confidence that Manny could tell Matt, "Dude, you'll be fine. Just go get your groove back, we know you're capable, and when the roster opens up and we have space for a known-entity instead of having to do try outs, you'll be back."

Can it really be that bad to have to go back to AAA? Assuming you have the maturity needed to be in the big leagues in the first place?

Section 506 (After moving): "Can it really be that bad to have to go back to AAA?"

Not if you play at RFK 81 games out of the year... only 1/2 joking. It's gotta hurt more getting sent down from a place like PNC or PacBell (no way I'm calling it AT&T).

Realizing my own mistake... Flores of course would go down just in time for the opening of the new park so I bet that might tick him off just a little... it would really piss me off but I'm personally really big on creature comforts. Hopefully it acts as an incentive to play harder and get back to the bigs sooner.

Hi Friends:

I'm back from my business trip. I found it difficult only getting day-old additions of the Post for Nats' news. No internet. No TV. I had the shakes.

I've read the postings from today and...

1. I'm struck by the change in tenor regarding Jesus Flores. Just three weeks ago, many in our community were calling for him to start full time for the rest of the year. I had come around to the point that I thought platooning him next year was the right thing to do. However GoNats convinced me that we should be more patient and send him to AAA for a year. There are easily obtainable quality back ups. Besides, I heard one NL GM say that his advance scouts rate Schneider head and shoulders above every other NL catcher in terms of his pitch calling and the way he handles his staff. He called Schneider one of only 4 not easily replaceable players on the Nats - the other three being Zim, Cordero, and Rauch. This brings me to my other point ...

2. The discussions the last few days about the OF and even the catching situation really drive home the point that the Nats have very few impact position players in their system (maybe Zim). We're arguing about Church, Logan, Kearns, and Pena - all below average players. They have no Reyes's or Pujols's or anyone like this that we can really get excited about - not yet anyway. Maybe Maxwell or Marrero could be that player some day, but until someone tears up AA or AAA pitching, I feel like the Nats are treading water a bit. JimBo's going to have to keep patching it together with the Wily Mo's of the world until they restock. This comment should not be interpreted as me being critical. I think it's good the Nats concentrated on pitching first. I guess it just brings up the ugly reality of how MLB stripped the franchise and ran it into the ground before the Lerners bought it.

3. I was hoping for 4 HR's from Wily Mo during my absence. Two wasn't bad. Let's get 'em tonight.

"Hopefully it acts as an incentive to play harder and get back to the bigs sooner."

This goes to what I'm saying. Surely, someone can explain to him that if he doesn't go to AAA and bat every single day he will ALWAYS enjoy the comfort of the bench in Nats Park and the beautiful sight-lines from the dugout. We like him because of his potential, but he is not a major leaguer yet and is only up here because of Rule 5 stipulations.

Manny must be sensible enough to say "you're spending one year in Columbus so that you can spend ten to fifteen years in Washington. If you don't like that, you can spend two years in Washington and then ten years shuttling back and forth to Columbus."

"you're spending one year in Columbus so that you can spend ten to fifteen years in Washington. If you don't like that, you can spend two years in Washington and then ten years shuttling back and forth to Columbus."

Well put. If you speak Spanish perhaps you could land a part-time gig breaking bad news to ballplayers.

Welcome back, #4. Your second point is dead on, and not only shows how amazing this year's results have been, but also how tempered our optimism for next season should be.

As long as we're at it, here are the 2009 free agents, courtest of Cot's Baseball Contracts:

2008-09 Free Agents
The following players have contracts expiring or should have the six years of service necessary to become free agents after the 2008 season. Players with 2009 options are noted with an asterisk.

Player Club
First Basemen
Rich Aurilia SF
Ben Broussard SEA
Carlos Delgado * NYM
Nomar Garciaparra LAD
Jason Giambi * NYY
Wes Helms PHI
Kevin Millar BOS
Richie Sexson SEA
Mark Teixeira ATL
Frank Thomas * TOR
Jim Thome CWS
Daryle Ward CHC

Second Basemen
Jamey Carroll * COL
Ray Durham SF
Mark Ellis OAK
Marcus Giles SD
Mark Grudzielanek KC
Orlando Hudson ARZ
Jeff Kent LAD
Felipe Lopez WAS
D'Angelo Jimenez WAS
Pablo Ozuna * CWS
Nick Punto MIN
Jose Valentin NYM
Jose Vidro * SEA

Shortstops
Orlando Cabrera LAA
Alex Cintron CWS
Alex Cora BOS
Craig Counsell * MIL
Adam Everett HOU
Rafael Furcal LAD
Cristian Guzman WAS
Cesar Izturis PIT
Ramon Martinez LAD
Edgar Renteria * ATL
Juan Uribe CWS

Third Basemen
Hank Blalock * TEX
Joe Crede CWS
Morgan Ensberg SD
Troy Glaus TOR
Chipper Jones * ATL
Corey Koskie MIL
Greg Norton TB
Alex Rodriguez NYY (may void)
Scott Spiezio * STL

Catchers
Rod Barajas PHI
Henry Blanco * CHC
Johnny Estrada MIL
Toby Hall * CWS
Kenji Johjima SEA
Mike Lieberthal LAD
Adam Melhuse TEX
A.J. Pierzynski CWS
Mike Redmond * MIN
Ivan Rodriguez DET
David Ross * CIN
Javier Valentin CIN
Jason Varitek BOS
Vance Wilson DET
Gregg Zaun * TOR

Outfielders
Bobby Abreu NYY
Moises Alou NYM
Garrett Anderson * LAD
Rocco Baldelli * TB
Willie Bloomquist SEA
Emil Brown KC
Endy Chavez NYM
Carl Crawford * TB
Adam Dunn CIN
Jim Edmonds STL
Juan Encarnacion STL
Cliff Floyd CHC
Brian Giles * SD
Shawn Green NYM
Ken Griffey Jr. * CIN
Vladimir Guerrero * LAA
Jose Guillen SEA
Raul Ibanez SEA
Geoff Jenkins MIL
Jacque Jones CHC
Mark Kotsay OAK
Rob Mackowiak SD
Kevin Mench MIL
Jason Michaels * CLE
Craig Monroe DET
Jay Payton BAL
Wily Mo Pena WAS
Scott Podsednik CWS
Manny Ramirez * BOS
Juan Rivera LAA
Rondell White MIN

Starting Pitchers
Kris Bensen BAL
A.J. Burnett TOR (may opt out)
Paul Byrd CLE
Jon Garland CWS
Tom Glavine NYM
Mike Hampton * ATL
Rich Harden * OAK
Orlando Hernandez NYM
Jason Jennings HOU
Randy Johnson ARZ
John Lackey * LAA
Esteban Loaiza OAK
Braden Looper STL
Derek Lowe LAD
Pedro Martinez NYM
Matt Morris * PIT
Mike Mussina NYY
Jamie Moyer PHI
Mark Mulder * STL
Carl Pavano NYY
Jake Peavy * SD
Brad Penny * LAD
Odalis Perez KC
Oliver Perez NYM
Andy Pettitte NYY
Mark Prior CHC
Horatio Ramirez SEA
C.C. Sabathia CLE
Johan Santana MIN
Ben Sheets MIL
John Smoltz * ATL
Julian Tavarez BOS
Steve Trachsel BAL
Brett Tomko LAD
Claudio Vargas MIL
Woody Williams HOU
Randy Wolf LAD

Relief Pitchers
Tony Armas Jr. PIT
Luis Ayala WAS
Joe Beimel LAD
Joe Borowski CLE
Aaron Cook COL
Juan Cruz ARZ
Ryan Dempster CHC
Brendan Donnelly BOS
Octavio Dotel ATL
Scott Downs TOR
Alan Embree * OAK
Scott Eyre CHC
Kyle Farnsworth NYY
Casey Fossum TB
Brian Fuentes COL
Aaron Fultz CLE
Tom Gordon * PHI
LaTroy Hawkins COL
Mark Hendrickson LAD
Trevor Hoffman SD
Bobby Howry CHC
Jason Isringhausen STL
Steve Kline STL
Brad Lidge HOU
Brandon Lyon ARZ
Damaso Marte * PIT
Tom Martin COL
Julio Mateo PHI
Guillermo Mota NYM
Joe Nathan MIN
Will Ohman CHC
Hideki Okajima * BOS
Darren Oliver LAA
John Parrish BAL
Joel Pineiro STL
Chris Reitsma SEA
Dennys Reyes MIN
Juan Rincon MIN
David Riske KC
Francisco Rodriguez LAD
Brian Shouse MIL
Rafael Soriano ATL
Jorge Sosa NYM
Mike Stanton * CIN
Salomon Torres * PIT
Derrick Turnbow MIL
Oscar Villarreal ATL
David Weathers CIN
Dan Wheeler TB
Dave Williams NYM
Matt Wise MIL
Jay Witasick TB

Just reinforces the fact that we need to develop our own impact players.

Nice moniker, Bob L. Head!

Pace:

As an extremely passionate Nat supporter, but in the spirit of putting this year's results in context, I think it's more accurate to say that we've had amazing results this year relative only to the doomsday predictions that were made in the winter and spring.

Example of what I'm talking about:
One of the best ways to measure team strength offensively and defensively/pitching (beyond the overall won-loss record that we all know and love) is quite simple - runs scored, and runs against.

As it stands, before today's game, we are 57-70, which projects out to roughly 73-89. This is 16 games [or 8 games] under .500 [since various members of this forum like to measure it in the alternative, and maybe more rational way]. As many have noted, this would be a 2-game improvement over last year, with Soriano and other valuable players lost, which is entirely commendable, given the various injury and other hardships that we have fought through.

Onto the runs scored/runs against metric. As of last night's game, we had scored 499 runs and allowed 592. This projects out to roughly 637 runs scored by us this year, and 755 runs scored against us, a gap of 118 runs.

Since the Nats have arrived in DC, the breakdown (year/record/runs scored/runs allowed/differential) has been as follows:

2007(proj.) 73-89/637/755/118
2006(actual) 71-91/746/872/136
2005(actual) 81-81/639/673/34

To summarize, we're on pace to score fewer runs than we ever have since arriving in DC. This is despite the unforeseen seasons from Dmitri, Ronnie, Guzman's first half, etc. Cut it however you like, but the offense really is critically deficient.

Our pitching/defense appears to be middle-of-the-road, even by Nationals comparisons (scary). We have yet to approach our prowess of the inaugural season (the pitching of which kept us in contention until late in the season).

Moral of the story: we are a feel-good team this year, but we can't let our minor success compared to laughably low expectations temper the fire. We have much further to go on both sides of the ball (sorry, can't help the football analogy). As most of us have started to feel, however, even as our pitching situation appears to be on the upswing, our offense will be letting the team down for the foreseeable future without a major shot in the arm.

Just in case y'all don't know, there is a new posting.

Please, STOP TRYING TO GET OFFENSIVE OUT OF A CATCHER!

It's an absurdity to the think the exceptions like Mauer will ever be the rule. If a team has a catcher who can bat .250 and drive in 50 or 60 runs, they should consider themselves extremely lucky.