WMP: Catch the fever

Well, we have one of those little mini-legends-in-the-making things going on here. Yes, Wily Mo Pena has only played in three games for the Nationals and only homered twice. But there is a buzz in the clubhouse, no doubt, because this lineup has very few people (0) who you think can consistently change a game with the homer.

Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez have seen this before. Check the gamer in the $.35 edition (as well as on-line) for the following quote from Kearns:

"It's scary. You used to get caught up watching him take [batting practice], just because you were in awe. But then we used to talk about it. He could hurt somebody."

Kearns said that one day at Wrigley Field in batting practice when he and WMP were with the Reds, the fans were going crazy in left field when WMP was taking BP. Just shot after shot. Kearns talks -- and he had mentioned this to me before Pena even got here -- about how Pena hits line drive homers, no high moon shots. His are more like a well-struck 3-iron that goes on a low liner and then has another gear.

That day in Chicago, Kearns and some others were shagging balls in left, and the fans were going ga-ga. "We yelled up to them," Kearns said, "that they better be careful." He wasn't kidding. These balls were not landing softly.

That's the style of homer Pena hit Monday night. He chipped in a couple of singles, too. Drew an intentional walk. All was right with the world. I asked the typical change-of-scenery question afterward. (This is also lifted from the gamer.)

"It's not just about Boston," Pena said. "I learned a lot of stuff there. But that's all I've been wanting for, for this opportunity to play.

"When you sit on the bench, you're not going to show nobody nothing. When you play every day, it's not the same. Now, you go 0 for 4, and tomorrow, you'll be in the lineup - versus if you come off the bench one time every week, or one time every two weeks, you have to do something. You have pressure. 'Let me do something to be in the lineup again.'"

But there is a harsh reality to all this. We know Pena strikes out a lot (though he went five plate appearances Monday night without doing that). But just how much?

Pena first came up in the 2002 season. Since then, including Monday night, he has 1,381 major league plate appearances with 438 strikeouts. That's a strikeout once ever 3.15 plate appearances. For an everyday player, that's more than once a game, which is remarkable.

According to Stats LLC (I bow down to you, oh great Web site), the players who had the fewest plate appearances per strikeout who played in every season from 2002-07 (Pena's career) are Mark Bellhorn (3.45), Craig Wilson (3.61) and Adam Dunn (3.72) (among those who played regularly enough that they qualify to be ranked, which Pena does not). (Aside: Does it seem like a million years ago that Mark Bellhorn was the starting second baseman for the Red Sox in Game 1 of the 2004 World Series? Wow.)

So Pena strikes out more often than the people who strike out the most often in baseball. Uh, wow.

Be ready for something of a wild ride. And in case there was any question about the outfield alignments for the rest of the season, Austin Kearns is not the everyday center fielder. Manny Acta said that was a one-day thing, and he would do it by feel. Read about that here.

And not to totally switch gears, but where is Tim Redding, and who has replaced him in the Nationals' rotation, wearing his uniform?

By Barry Svrluga |  August 21, 2007; 6:23 AM ET
Previous: So much for that theory | Next: WMP Deal Completed. Adios, Fruto!

Comments

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You are awesome. Do you ever sleep?

Posted by: GoNats | August 21, 2007 6:38 AM

I'm going to project next year's outfield as Peña in LF, Kearns in CF (yikes!), and, duh duh duh, Adam Dunn in RF. With maybe some super-speedy defensive replacement/pinch runner(Escobar? Watson?) on hand for when the team actually needs a real CF. Oh, and Church, of course, for Sunday heroics.

Posted by: Buzzard Point | August 21, 2007 7:06 AM

Dare to dream....Nats '08

Hill
Bergman
Redding
Patterson
Lanan (or Hanrahan)

Cordero
Rauch
Ayala
Colome
Rivera
Bacsik

Schneider (Flores backing)
Johnson (Young backing or starting if Nick is done)
Lopez or new 2B
Guzman
Zimmerman
Pena
Rowand
Kearns (w/ Marero taking over in July or August)

IF those guys a) stayed reasonably healthy and b) performed to 80-90% of their potential, that is a team that would be over .500 and MIGHT just sneak into the wild card. Crazy, right?

Posted by: mlwagnercpa | August 21, 2007 7:39 AM

What former Reds player will be next? No wonder last years phrase was "Get Your Red On."

Posted by: ChrisC | August 21, 2007 8:14 AM

Someone needs to throw a Sean Casey in there, Danny Graves? Actually those Reds teams would have been pretty solid had they had ANY pitching at all.

Posted by: natrat | August 21, 2007 8:23 AM

True true Buzzard Point. I know of a a guy named Ryan Keel that could fit the speedy OF sub and he can play infield...but I can't remember what team he's on. ;)

Posted by: DE | August 21, 2007 8:28 AM

Oops, of course I meant Ryan Freel...

Posted by: DE | August 21, 2007 8:28 AM

The Houston Chronicle had a great quote from pitcher Jason Jennings about Dmitri Young's homer:

"It would have hit the ground if he didn't hit it," Jennings said of the 1-2 slider Young hit out. "So really what else am I supposed to do? I guess I can bounce it in the grass and see if he hits it out that time."

Posted by: The Observer | August 21, 2007 8:39 AM

Incidentally, I DO remember Mark Bellhorn of the 2004 Red Sox. And I DO remember that he used to strike out, well, always. I think I remember him hitting a home run once... But other than that, K's. It is really very discouraging to me to know that WMP strikes out significantly more than Bellhorn. (Of course, it is awfully nice to finally have a little pop in the lineup, too.)

Posted by: just another nats fan | August 21, 2007 9:05 AM

I am enjoying getting caught up in WMP's initial burst of glory as much as everyone else but if we are going to keep bringing former Reds to town I want to see Chris Sabo...that guy had the coolest googles this side of Horace Grant...

Posted by: Nick715 | August 21, 2007 9:12 AM

Why are people so high on Rowand? He's going to hit maybe 30 home runs in a hitter's ballpark in his contract year. That is not a sign of future offensive potential. He's a good defensive CF, but we don't need to add defense (Church is an above average defensive OF, and if he gets consistent with the bat, he's a left handed Rowand basically).

How can we be confident that Rowand will bring any new offense to the table in DC? Kearns was on pace for 30-35 in GABP when the Nats picked him up and now he's got 10 on the year. The last thing we need is to lock-up 2 under-producing outfielders for the long term.

Posted by: NoVA Nat | August 21, 2007 9:25 AM

I am cautiously optimistic about WMP contribution and his liabilities. Hitting in the heart of a strong line-up, which we are close to having, and in a team that is in contention, which we are close to being and working with a hitting coach who believes in forcing pitchers to throw strikes and sharing a club house with guys who know how to look off junk (Young and Johnson) may work well to keep his SO's under control. He never had a chance in Boston and nobady cared when he was at Cincy - we aren't asking for a miracle here, just get the SOs down to a reasoanable level, we'll take a decent number of them if he can give us 40 tatters and 25-30 doubles, the way he hits the ones that don't go out will make great potential 2baggers at RFK and hopefully in the new ballpark too.

If he keeps hitting like this all week where will Manny have him bat for Colorado? I wouldn't be surprised to see him hit 5 or 6 most of the rest of the season, but if he is for real and stays hot I think he could and should hit clean-up with the meat at 5...

Posted by: estuartj | August 21, 2007 9:25 AM

For the rest of this year, why not put Logan back in CF and flank him with Church and WMP. Kearns needs to sit for a while. At least Logan was getting some hits.

Posted by: Sec 515 | August 21, 2007 9:31 AM

just as an FYI, Kearns had a fantastic game last night, and Nook looked like Nook of old, although he did battle in his one AB. i think the issue is that both Kearns and Nook are extraordinarily streaky batters (Kearns is now 9 for his last 17 over the last 5 games, while Nook has been hitting .330-ish since the All-Star break), and its a matter of timing and feel for when to switch from one to the other. That being said, for the short-term, Kearns is presently the hotter of the two and deserves the PT with Nook getting the late game ABs from either Church or Kearns' spot. Gotta agree with Manny on this one for now.

Posted by: faNATic | August 21, 2007 9:47 AM

Y'know, if we're going to give lineups for next year, esp. pitchers, there should be spaces for whoever will replace them when they go on the DL.
But that said, Hill; Bergman; Redding; Lannan; and Hanrahan to start, with Bacsik; Rivera; Colome; King; Ayala; Rauch; and Cordero ain't such a bad start. There'll be five or six guys named Ryan or Marlon or something else who nobody has heard of or everybody forgot about at some point.

Posted by: cevans | August 21, 2007 9:47 AM

OTOH, according to the stats on the team site (if I'm doing the math correctly -- not a math major), in the last 5 games Kearns has had 9 hits in 17 at-bats with 5 walks...

Posted by: natsfan1a | August 21, 2007 9:54 AM

Whoops, I see that faNATic responded re. Kearns while I was researching and typing. Great minds think alike. So it goes...

Posted by: natsfan1a | August 21, 2007 9:55 AM

Hey, cevans, watch it with the whammies (just kidding, sort of...)

---

Y'know, if we're going to give lineups for next year, esp. pitchers, there should be spaces for whoever will replace them when they go on the DL.

Posted by: natsfan1a | August 21, 2007 9:57 AM

Excellent, cevans.

---

There'll be five or six guys named Ryan or Marlon or something else who nobody has heard of or everybody forgot about at some point.

Posted by: natsfan1a | August 21, 2007 9:59 AM

I cannot understand for the life of my why people continue to consider Church adequate defensively. Do you watch any of the games? He is HORRIBLE. I have NEVER seen him sacrifice himself for an out, either on the turf or into the wall (although someone tells me he once ran into the wall in Pittsburgh last year). I wonder how many outfield assists he has in his career, because I have NEVER seen him make an on-line throw. Rowand is TEN TIMES the baseball player Church is, in every way possible.

---------------------------------
(Church is an above average defensive OF, and if he gets consistent with the bat, he's a left handed Rowand basically).

How can we be confident that Rowand will bring any new offense to the table in DC? Kearns was on pace for 30-35 in GABP when the Nats picked him up and now he's got 10 on the year. The last thing we need is to lock-up 2 under-producing outfielders for the long term.

Posted by: NoVA Nat

Posted by: Matt | August 21, 2007 9:59 AM

Have to say I agree with Matt on the Rowand v. Church comparison. I HAVE seen Church sacrifice himself, though I can't think of a time he's thrown a strike to home plate for an out. It must have happened. For all the Kearns bashing, he's got a great arm.

Church has done well this year and I wouldn't be sad to see him stay, but I do think he might fit better on another team and we might get a piece that fits better for us if we trade him. Keeping him on the bench is not a good idea, because we all should remember what Church is like coming off the bench...

Posted by: Section 506 (After moving) | August 21, 2007 10:29 AM

Cevans, your rotation didn't even include Patterson or Chico. I'm not saying I disagree - I'm just throwing in the admittedly improbable instance of a healthy, effective Patterson and what it would do the Nats.

I'd love for Chico and Lannan to get more time in AAA. Kasten's idea is to fill the minor league system with talent until it overflows into the big club. I think it's equally effective to "cap" the minor leaguers by having five effective (and healthy) starters in the bigs. A healthy Patterson would go a long way to see to that.

It's also one of the reasons I hope Bowie stays around. Not only would he be effective as a long reliever or situational lefty, he'd be a great choice for an emergency starter, thereby avoiding a callup from AAA. It's also why I'm beginning to wonder about the availability of Jason Simontacchi next season.

A great solution, of course, would be to go after a proven starter in the offseason, even if it's a number two or three guy.

But now I'm just rambling.

Posted by: John in Mpls | August 21, 2007 10:29 AM

I watch all of the games. Every single one of them. 162 a year. Church isn't horrible at all. He is very respectable in the outfield, whether it be in left-center-or right. Why does someone have to sacrifice themselves to be good on defense? You don't have to! (and BTW, he ran into the wall in Pittsburgh back in '05 and missed a lot of time. Think anyone would want to do THAT again?!?) Who cares about outfield assists. If a runner knows someones got a strong arm they aren't going to test it.

-----------------------------------------
Do you watch any of the games? He is HORRIBLE. I have NEVER seen him sacrifice himself for an out, either on the turf or into the wall (although someone tells me he once ran into the wall in Pittsburgh last year). I wonder how many outfield assists he has in his career, because I have NEVER seen him make an on-line throw
Matt

Posted by: Andrew Stebbins | August 21, 2007 10:30 AM

And Andrew Stebbins gets another side of it, that is much more fair to Church's defense. Still, I think Rowand replacing Church would be an upgrade.

"If a runner knows someones got a strong arm they aren't going to test it," he says. Unless - for some inexplicable reason - that left fielder is Alfonso Soriano. I never could understand why they kept testing him all year long.

Posted by: Section 506 (After moving) | August 21, 2007 10:35 AM

I watch or listen to most of the games - about 100 or so of them - and I agree with Andrew Stebbins about Church's respectability.

I also argue that the Nationals aren't necessarily losing games because of poor defensive play by the outfielders (a certain extra innings game against the Phillies excepted). More often than not, the Nationals are losing games because they are not producing offensively.

Not that they couldn't use another effective starter...

Posted by: John in Mpls | August 21, 2007 10:38 AM

Fair enough. Everyone is entitled to their opinion.
Having said that, (and perhaps this is the short-term-what-have-you-done-for-me-lately mindset of a fan speaking) the next time Church makes me say "wow, nice play" with either his arm or glove, it will be the first.

Posted by: Matt | August 21, 2007 10:41 AM

Take a look at Rowand's stats vs Church's for the past couple of years and there's not that big of a difference defensively. Outfield assits have a lot to do with chance as well as the size of the outfield you're playing 1/2 your games in, CBP vs RFK for example. Additionally, we see Nook diving for balls all the time, that doesn't make him a good outfielder. A lot of the 'great' diving plays he makes are on balls that a decent outfielder would have gotten to on both feet. Sacrifice in that sense is not a measure of skill.

I'm not arguing that Church belongs in the hall of fame, or even our outfield next year. I just don't think Rowand is enough of an improvement to justify the $10 million or more per year he'll get signed for somewhere.

Posted by: NoVA Nat | August 21, 2007 10:41 AM

I've seen Church throw 5-hoppers to Zim at third when runners held up at second on fly balls. I can't think of an accurate throw home he has made. Having now looked it up, he has 10 outfield assists in 277 games and 644 total chances. A good arm? Don't think so.

Church is a mediocre player on a bad team, as Manny recently pointed out. Let's see what WMP can be.

Posted by: Dick | August 21, 2007 10:43 AM

Wow, I guess I don't really know what to say to those who think highly of Church. There is NO statistic that adequately represents what a player does defensively, so I'm just going to have to go with what I see every night. Church is an average ballplayer. He only catches average fly balls, his throws are on-line about 10% of the time, and he's average with the bat. There are only (maybe) 2 or 3 other teams in the majors that he would start for, and he probably wouldn't even be on the roster of most contenders.

Posted by: Matt | August 21, 2007 10:49 AM

Re: Church vs. Rowand: First off, its a little premature to be having this conversation, given that Rowand is not yet on the market and that the pressure in Philly (where I dwell) will be great to resign him. Having said that, he, or my personal preference Tori Hunter, would be a great improvement over Church both defensively and at the plate. Just this past weekend vs. the Mets, Church had a coupe of poor throws, including one where he threw through the cut-off on a play that had no chance, allowing a runner to advance to second. Watch carefully: runners test his arm plenty. At the plate his approach is inconsistent, and he doesn't really inspire confidence. Rowand is a fierce competitor, and a smart ball player. He covers a lot more ground than Church, has a better arm, and yes, gives himself up a lot more to save runs. Sure Church did that once in Pittsburgh in 05, and hasn't again. Rowand seems to get busted up once a month (anyone remember him breaking his nose running into the center field fence last year?) and gets back out on the field and plays harder. Someone questions why you'd want to give yourself up to catch a ball? How about the fact that its your job, and your payed pretty damn well to do it. At the plate Rowand grinds at bats out, and is a clutch hitter. (SABR geeks will tell you there's no such thing as a clutch hitter, but they've mostly read baseball, not played it.)

Sort of a long post, but I think that our limited baseball exposure in DC has skewered some people's visions of what a good ballplayer can, and should be. Church is fine - he'd make a great 21st Century Smokin Joe Orsulak - but you don't want him starting at CF for a contender. Rowand, and Hunter, on the other hand, DO start at CF for contenders.

Posted by: Moses Monroe | August 21, 2007 10:54 AM

Andrew:

The difference between Church, and Logan and Kearns is something for which there is no statistic: the laying-out, diving, tumbling, highlight reel catch. Those catches are made in the first step or two after the ball is struck, because if you're Church, in those first two steps, you're thinking base hit, where Logan and Kearns are thinking out.

The thing is, the viewer's perception of the play is dictated by the demeanor of the outfielder; if he believes it to be a hit, he is displaying the body language of someone getting in position to field the ball off the ground... so you, as the viewer, are not saying, "Hey, Kearns woulda had that base hit" because it is almost impossible for a viewer to see that (especially on television).

It only shows up after a season or two of watching. Church did indeed have that incredible catch in Pittsburgh in 2005, went on the DL because of it, and while I have watched 90 percent of the games since then, I am hard pressed to remember another tumbling catch by Church since then.

I will agree that is not the sole criteria by which one should evaluate an outfielder. But (if I am correct) we're conceding hits on plays that should be outs. How many? Who knows.

I am all ready to be proven wrong... but as I said... it isn't something for which there is a statistic... it is just the vibe you get watching him... and the vibe is, I don't ever see Church making a full-out catch right on the edge of his range. They all seem routine... which on one hand, is great, cause he makes it seem so simple... but on the other hand, he may not be challenging ones he's physically capable of reaching.

Posted by: Wigi | August 21, 2007 10:58 AM

Food for thought on the WMP train...

That shot (and it was a shot!) last night would've probably put a hole in the Green Monster, right? And possibly ended up as a long single?

With WMP's history of hitting bullet line drives and not rainbows, it wouldn't be surprising if he was changing his swing at Fenway, and that's not the hitter he is. But if he can limit his K's, he adds some serious heft to make pitchers pause -- and Church better take advantage of the pitches he's going to get with WMP behind him!

Oh, and I have to agree with the sentiments of Church as a below-average OF, except I think he is an average LF (which is where the worst defensive OFs usually play) MUCH better than Dunn, Bonds, and C.Lee (did you see that weak effort on the flare pre-Meat's HR?).

Posted by: ShawNatsFan | August 21, 2007 11:04 AM

Back to WMP real quick: Given the past few days' glorious hits that he did, does this mean that statistically he's already due for a couple of 0 of 4 games with a lotta strikeouts?

Posted by: Juan-John | August 21, 2007 11:05 AM

If you flip a penny 1,000 times and get 1,000 heads, the probability on the next flip is still 50/50.

----------------
Back to WMP real quick: Given the past few days' glorious hits that he did, does this mean that statistically he's already due for a couple of 0 of 4 games with a lotta strikeouts?

Posted by: just another nats fan | August 21, 2007 11:10 AM

Rotoworld speculates that the PTBNL may be Emiliano Fruto, who is still thought to be ahigh upside guy even if he has stunk out the joint in AAA this year. Higher upside than Abreu or Munoz, but not the results this year. Weird though, if it is Fruto, because I thought the idea for AZ is to get bullpen help down the stretch. Rotoworld also suggest that Boston's interest in Carter is that "[t]he 24-year-old left-handed hitter could be a solid platoon first baseman in the major leagues."

Even if Wily Mo falls flat on his face, this is still a good deal. Middle reliever not on you 25 man roster for a roll of the dice shot at a huge power hitter is a good gamble for a team that is building. And don't say "we'd be better off with Carter" unless you find a place for him to play with Dmitri and Nick.

One other thing - according to the Nats website /player news, Wily Mo is only signed through this year (2007). I still think they can decline to offer arbitration if he's a bust. He's not FA eligible until 2008, unless the team does not offer arbitration. Let's hope it's a moot point.

Posted by: jon | August 21, 2007 11:11 AM

I don't think Andrew ever said Church was great. He was responding to a post in which Church was called "HORRIBLE" (yes, in all caps), and Andrew responded by calling him "respectable."

Maybe it's arguing semantics, but I think "respectable" is a decent term for Church. The Nats are fighting to earn a respectable record in light of preseason predictions, and Church, who will hit over 40 doubles this year, is a part of that fight.

This year.

To me, "respectable" depends on the context, and in the context of next season's expectations, I don't see Church's productivity - defensively or offensively - as reaching respectability.

Maybe, as Barry has pointed out, he'd be a decent fourth outfielder on a team with reasonable expectations. But he's certainly not the every day solution at any position next season. I don't think Andrew was arguing that, nor do I think his argument - or mine - constitute thinking "highly" of Church.

What is troubling to me is the lack of a CF prospect in the farm system. The Nationals have never had a viable every day CF, and, unless they acquire one in the offseason via free agency or trade, they're going to go into next season without one. This is troubling.

I agree with Moses, my preference is Hunter. But hey, that's just me.

Posted by: John in Mpls | August 21, 2007 11:17 AM

On the Wily Mo trade, it sounds like Carter is a below average defensive 1B and better suited for the DH spot. Since we've already got that role on the team filled, I doubt there's much of an argument in favor of Carter over Wily Mo. If all we have to give up is a AAA bullpen guy for someone with the potential to hit 35 or 40 HR, then this is a great trade.

Posted by: NoVA Nat | August 21, 2007 11:20 AM

Wigi -

What a catch by Church in 2005! It looked like another blown save by The Chief when Church just Aaron Rowaned himself into that wall and held onto the ball. He saved the game and nearly ended his career. All we heard was how long it was taking him to rehab, with that Idiot Guillen chiming in. No wonder he shies away from giving it up, now that his swing and he are back in the bigs.

Posted by: flynnie | August 21, 2007 11:20 AM

I'm slow today, and it took me a few readings to get this one, Barry. (What? Was Redding traded? Have they made a roster change? Ohhhh, you just mean that he has made a real turnaound pitching-wise. Never mind...)

Heck, I don't care if the body snatchers have taken him over, I just like the way he's pitching! :)

---

And not to totally switch gears, but where is Tim Redding, and who has replaced him in the Nationals' rotation, wearing his uniform?

Posted by: natsfan1a | August 21, 2007 11:25 AM

Based on his picture on the official site, I thought maybe Nick Oliveri (formerly of Kyuss and Queens of the Stone Age) had suited up.

-----

And not to totally switch gears, but where is Tim Redding, and who has replaced him in the Nationals' rotation, wearing his uniform?

Posted by: John in Mpls | August 21, 2007 11:31 AM

Say, Barry, is Sheinin on vaca or something? I was going to post something in his Tuesday chat today but I see that it's not scheduled.

In case anybody here might want to delve further after reading Sunday's MLB section on player oddities/rituals, I recommend "Baseball Eccentrics," by Bill "Spaceman" Lee (who better to write a book on eccentrics?) with Jim Prine. It includes a number of the players mentioned in Sunday's piece and many others. On a Nats note, I love Batista's blessing ritual as illustrated in the piece.

Posted by: natsfan1a | August 21, 2007 11:32 AM

Dunn Bonds and CLee (w/ berkman) are clearly the most important hitters in their lineups. Any AL team would be happy to have them DH. i'm laughing as i write this but church is not even orsulak. I'm not sure Nats feel the need to pickup a CF this offseason. the offense would definitely benefit but I could easily see wanting one more year of maximizing the draft. allowing some prospects to show you a timeline and when they're gonna be ready for an infusion of outside talent. anyone have a list of FA's following next year? this year's crop isn't that deep. and it's pretty much all guys past 30 already.

Posted by: long term plan? | August 21, 2007 11:34 AM

I meant Prime, dang it, Prime. Daggone 2-hour proofreader lunches...

Posted by: natsfan1a | August 21, 2007 11:34 AM

i can't get too excited about these guys. and assuming andruw stays in atlanta, torii hunter and rowand are about it. i don't see how can we have dunn and wily mo on same team. that would be a nightmare for grooming young pitchers. so barring a trade we may already have our OF.

Outfielders 2007-08 (*08 option)
Bobby Abreu * NYY
Moises Alou * NYM
Milton Bradley SD
Mike Cameron SD
Brady Clark SD
Jeff DaVanon OAK
Adam Dunn * CIN
Darin Erstad * CWS
Kosuke Fukudome, Chunichi, Japan
Luis Gonzalez LAD
Shawn Green* NYM
Eric Hinske BOS
Torii Hunter MIN
Geoff Jenkins * MIL
Andruw Jones ATL
Bobby Kielty BOS
Rob Mackowiak * SD
Orlando Palmeiro HOU
Corey Patterson BAL
Aaron Rowand PHI
Reggie Sanders KC
Brad Wilkerson TEX

Posted by: long term plan? | August 21, 2007 11:41 AM

You gotta love a GM who acquires a qualtiy player for another player that isn't even on his team. I know there are those among you who think Bowden is lacking as a GM, that he is too focused on former Reds, etc..., but you gotta respect his creativity. WMP is somewhat unlikely to become a starting MLB OF for the long term, but what if he reduces his strikeout rate to 1 for every 4 at bats? If he can do that, he is no worse than Jim Thome, Richie Sexson, and a number of other very valuable hitters who whiff alot.

Bowden should also be praised for the trades he has not made. He has kept Cordero, Rauch, Young and others and still managed to add a few pieces throughout the year. Were some of those unnamed sources who said that the Nats were asking for too much working in Boston or Arizona? Seems like Jimbo waited for the market correction before acquiring WMP. Give the man credit.

Posted by: NatBisquit | August 21, 2007 11:43 AM

Anyone else wonder whether WMP strikes out so much because he has less playing time and is overdoing it trying to earn a spot? I heard Bob Carpenter say one time that the Pinch Hitters Creed is "Never go down looking". That might up the strike outs too.

Posted by: Section 506 (After moving) | August 21, 2007 11:58 AM

Fine. As far as major league ball players go in their entirety, from rookie league to the majors, Ryan Church is at least adequate, if not above-average. He's not HORRIBLE, unless your goal is winning a World Series, in which case he is, indeed, horrible.

Posted by: Matt | August 21, 2007 12:13 PM

Your starting Left Fielder in the clinching game of the 2006 World Series:

So Taguchi.

Posted by: Horrible | August 21, 2007 12:46 PM

*Professional* ball players in their entirety, rather.

Posted by: Matt | August 21, 2007 12:47 PM

Church is definintely trade bait this off season. WMP is clearly being invited to take the LF position. Not only does Church have limited range and throwing arm, but I think his attitude and body language are what grind the front office the most.

Also, there is no comparing Church to Rowand, Roward is far superior on all levels, and I love the fantasy of a WMP, Rowand, Kearns outfield.

Posted by: G-town | August 21, 2007 12:47 PM

All I have to say about Church is -

Who remembers that game this year that went into extra innings in Philly...and Rollins' inside the park home run.

Church missed the catch, misthrew FLope in the cutoff. Terrible. That was my #1 worst moment of the season so far.

Comparing Kearns and Nook as batters is rediculous. Hanrahan has more extra base hits this year than Nook (kidding, but not really).

Posted by: 1938FratStreet | August 21, 2007 12:47 PM

So that's now the standard for World Series-winning left fielders?
------------------------

So Taguchi.

Posted by: Horrible

Posted by: Matt | August 21, 2007 12:50 PM

maybe if we add pujols we can keep church?

Posted by: long term plan? | August 21, 2007 1:03 PM

All that proves is when a so-so team gets some so-so pitchers hot at the right time (Weaver, Suppan), it can win 12 out of 21.

[not to take anything away from LaRussa & Duncan--they're doing it again this summer with Kip Wells, Looper & Piniero]

So that's now the standard for World Series-winning left fielders?
------------------------

So Taguchi.

Posted by: Horrible

Posted by: Matt | August 21, 2007 12:50 PM

Posted by: Section 418 | August 21, 2007 1:10 PM

If you flip a penny 1000 times and get 1000 heads, you probably have a two-headed penny (or it is otherwise unfair), so the probability on the next flip is heads again...

(Enjoy Wily Mo, by the way -- I was always optimistic on his potential in Boston, but we couldn't give him the consistent at-bats that he needed. I think there's a very good chance he'll develop and work out really well for the Nats.)

------
If you flip a penny 1,000 times and get 1,000 heads, the probability on the next flip is still 50/50.

Posted by: soxfan | August 21, 2007 1:33 PM

Uh...not the same thing.

I'd say WMP is indeed likely due for some strikeouts. He cannot and will not maintain a .455 BA/1.700 OPS.

----------------

If you flip a penny 1,000 times and get 1,000 heads, the probability on the next flip is still 50/50.

----------------
Back to WMP real quick: Given the past few days' glorious hits that he did, does this mean that statistically he's already due for a couple of 0 of 4 games with a lotta strikeouts?

Posted by: just another nats fan | August 21, 2007 11:10 AM


Posted by: DE | August 21, 2007 1:39 PM

No, natsfan1a, I didn't intend to put the mickey on anybody; in fact, I've avoided mentioning the sustained health so far of the C...
Whoops, that was close.

Yes, John, leaving Chico out of the rotation in favor of probably Lannan was an oversight. Leaving Patterson off wasn't. But like I said, they won't all be healthy and effective at the same time.

There aren't 30 good centerfielders at any one time. There might not be 15. It's a hard spot to play. That was one encouraging thing about signing McGeary: they ponied up when they had to. If Torii is available, go get him.

Church, Church, Church. Gotta respect 50 doubles, but he reminds me of something Bill Walsh supposedly said about QB Steve DeBerg: "He's just good enough to lose."

I hope WMP can do it for real. It happens.
And I hope Dmitri can really hit .335 with no more than an error a week. We'll see.

Guzman 6
Lopez 4
Zimmerman 5
Hunter 8
Pena 7
Young 3
Kearns 9
Schneider 2
starter 1

Posted by: cevansjr | August 21, 2007 1:45 PM

Whew, that *was* close, cevans! ;)

---

No, natsfan1a, I didn't intend to put the mickey on anybody; in fact, I've avoided mentioning the sustained health so far of the C...
Whoops, that was close.

Posted by: natsfan1a | August 21, 2007 1:50 PM

Consider.
One: probability is a factor which operates within natural forces.
Two: probability is not operating as a factor.
Three: we are now held within sub- or super-natural forces.
Discuss!

Posted by: Rosencranz and/or Guildenstern | August 21, 2007 1:55 PM

Before the first season, Marc Fischer wrote of Charlie Slowes and Dave Shea: "Once the season starts, they will be lucky to get two days off each month. They live on the road, traveling in the wee hours, eating on the run." And Barry posts at 6:43 AM! I once heard a former beat writer say that he would rather be a war correspondant than ever return to MLB beat writing. No wonder Shiner no longer does it for the O's, and there's no one at the Post anxious to take that job. And, for all you have done, thanks, Barry! We will miss you.

Posted by: flynnie | August 21, 2007 1:57 PM

There is an art to the building of suspense.

Posted by: Section 506 (After moving) | August 21, 2007 1:59 PM

Fine. As far as major league ball players go in their entirety, from rookie league to the majors, Ryan Church is at least adequate, if not above-average. He's not HORRIBLE, unless your goal is winning a World Series, in which case he is, indeed, horrible.

Posted by: Matt | August 21, 2007 12:50 PM
So that's now the standard for World Series-winning left fielders?
------------------------

So Taguchi.

Posted by: Horrible

No. It's not MY standard. It's YOURS.

Ryan Church > So Taguchi

So Taguchi is not Horrible because he was the Left Fielder for a World Series winning team.

Ergo: Ryan Church isn't horrible.

QED

Posted by: Horrible | August 21, 2007 3:35 PM

Fine. As far as major league ball players go in their entirety, from rookie league to the majors, Ryan Church is at least adequate, if not above-average. He's not HORRIBLE, unless your goal is winning a World Series, in which case he is, indeed, horrible.

Posted by: Matt | August 21, 2007 12:50 PM
So that's now the standard for World Series-winning left fielders?
------------------------

So Taguchi.

Posted by: Horrible

No. It's not MY standard. It's YOURS.

Ryan Church > So Taguchi

So Taguchi is not Horrible because he was the Left Fielder for a World Series winning team.

Ergo: Ryan Church isn't horrible.

QED

Posted by: Horrible | August 21, 2007 3:36 PM

I hate all this talk about next year, let's talk about tonight, we have all winter to discus FAs and trades. I'm interested in who on our roster or in our organization now is going to step up and make themselves a part of this teams future.

Since we are talking outfielders I think WMP will work out to be a potentially great corner guy, curious that Pena has said that RF is his best position. Kearns might be a passable defensive CF as is Church but even if Chuch gets his 50 he needs to step up in avg, obp or he's trade bait or 4th OF/Lefty PH.

Posted by: estuartj | August 21, 2007 3:57 PM

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