Re: attendance, how's this for an answer: It depends. Do I think they'll average 37,000 per game for the first month? Probably. Attendance for the first 6 weeks depends more on the weather than anything else. After the first six weeks, it depends on how the team's playing. Are they above .500 at that time, or are they 9-28? There's your answer, I'll bet.

"To develop the young pitchers the way we have this year could not have happened had Brian Schneider not been the catcher"

What young pitchers developed this year?

Chico's been so-so. But nothing special. Did he 'develop'?

Bergmann had a nice stretch mid-season. But was that because of Schneider? Or was that because St. Claire worked with him to change his motion/delivery of his breaking pitches?

Hill has been solid, but he was solid in previous years. He just hasn't been healthy.

What about Simontacchi? Bacsik? Speigner? Hanrahan? None of them developed. Does Schneider, if he's getting credit for the success, deserve some of the blame for their failures?

And what makes good "pitch-calling" anyway? How do we recognize it. It seems like it's a pretty solid BS dump to try to explain things nobody really understands.

If Schneider were batting .260 would they be falling all over themselves praising his calling abilities?

I would have thought they could match the '05 numbers next year, but the wild card is going to be parking. All of the self-righteous Metro yammering in the world is not going to change suburbanite behavior.

Barry,

Tell your bosses that Page 6 of the sports section is no place for your gamer. Unacceptable! If they want to drive Nats fans to the internet and away from the dead-tree version, that is certainly the way to do it.

Thanks, BTW, for the extra stuff from Bowden on Flores. Keep the extra quotes and whatnot coming. Can't get enough of Nats news.

37K per game? Possible, with a cautionary note.

Two givens that will improve attendance will be (1) the new ballpark and (2) improved expectations. The FO need not lift a(nother) finger to make those things happen. The ballpark is on time and on budget, so that's all set provided the Lerners deliver the rest of the furniture and don't tick off any of the construction people. And it is most unlikely that the team will get off to another 1-8 start.

All of that, though, only goes so far. Buzz must be built and steadily nourished around both the ballpark and the team. We have heard mixed reviews on Stan's marketing prowess, so there should be lively interest -- at least among media / marketing junkies -- in whether the product sizzles or fizzles.

What will make it sizzle? Building a product that people want to identify with. It need not be a World Series winner, at least not right away. It does need to be something that people want to watch and take their kids to, something they want enough to buy season-ticket plans, something they'll feel just a little uncomfortable missing (like last night's game!).

That's very simple, but it's all-important, because the window of opportunity is very limited. Sizzle is transient; don't-give-a-damn can last an awful long time.

Great to see Flores doing well. I maintain that Schneider is traded next June/July.

Lots of our young pitchers have developed, I don't think its fair to say they haven't. But I think the lions share of that credit goes to Randy, he's been amazing.

No way can we pull 37K per game next year, although I really hope we do. No doubt attendance will rise, but not sure it will be that much.

agree w Sec 224 - gotta have Parking! Gotta be able to handle the crowds...Nowadays whenever RFK has a 30K + attendance, it completely overwhelms the concessions. The big crowds should be anticipated....OPEN up more stands...bring in more help on those days. Hopefully the new Centerplate vendor can hire staff who act like they actually want to serve a hot dog in under 5 minutes/per dog. (wow, i think I just invented a new Baseball stat MPD)

More consistent/better TV. Better marketing. Most bars in the area do not even have Nats games on because they don't know how to find them. More promotions/giveaways.
And of course, a more competitive team!

As a ST holder and diehard, I go to the games anyway, but i think the above is whats needed to bring in big crowds.

i have to disagree with Chris bigtime. Schneider has been a very good defensive catcher for a long time. and this pitching staff success was impossible to project. no way do we get lucky with this. and i'm sure the pitching coach does a great job in the dugout and off the field but the pitcher and catcher are the ones looking at each other the entire game. i'm not looking up stats or anything but schneider also has a great arm and shuts down oppsosing baserunners. that's very helpful in keeping young pitchers attention where it needs to be. no way does this patched together staff of retreads and rookies do this with a run of the mill average defensive catcher.
surely no piazza. if anything, if schneider had veteran pitchers he could concentrate on hitting much more. i know i'd prefer him skip the extra batting practice and take as much time as possible with all the pitchers. they need to get up to speed quickly.

419, I'm laughing. You've got me on this one, I wouldn't have run the rugby or the Tech story ahead of the Nats.

I worry that the "newsworth" of the Tech piece is because of last year's brutal shootings. I sure hope that's not the case.

Enjoyed the rugby piece, but not sure why it trumped the Nats piece.

We were 2 of those (I'd say 12,000 tops) actually there, who did try to keep it as pumped up in the 9th as (the maybe 8,000 who stayed) could reasonably be expected to.
That said, it's clearly going to be like LA, with a third coming in sometime between the 3rd pitch and the 3rd inning, and about a fifth leaving in the 7th and 8th, regardless of the score. So if they aren't *perceived as* winning, they aren't going to draw bupkis. And they need parking--it's no use wagging a greener-than-thou finger at people who want to drive. AND better food. And 162 games on TV (I know, I know). And effective promos (just not please g-d not Sweet Caroline). Kasten is right, they need the non-baseball fan. To get them, they have to maintain a 'place to be' concept. Ask any successful restauranteur how hard THAT is to keep going for 30 years.

I said it before the stadium deal (which I still don't like, but to be fair, the Lerners have put up $$) and nothing has yet convinced me I'm wrong: this ain't a baseball town.

********
Trenchant observation as usual, Hendo.
-----------------
Sizzle is transient; don't-give-a-damn can last an awful long time.
Posted by: Hendo | September 5, 2007 11:15 AM

Prediction: they will sell out opening day at the new park on curiousity alone. At least 5,000 of those fans, and maybe as many as 10,000, however, will never see a pitch thrown because they will not find a place to park their cars and/or be stuck in the gridlock that will form on South Capitol Street as people drive to the stadium expecting to be directed to parking that does not exist. Most of those fans will not return for a long time. It will make the great opening day 2005 ARAmark concessions debacle look like a World Series win.

I think the real question is even if the parking spaces get built, what does 2009 look like for traffic control, and will they be able to convince folks that they've fixed the inevitable transportation nightmare that will come with the location of this new park? Even if 8,000 parking spaces were available, those 8,000 cars all basically need to come in on a single primary artery -- South Capitol Street. RFK is currently fed by at least four major arteries: Benning Road, East Capitol Street, Penna. Ave., and 395. Even with the parking entries from those other roads, though, 395 still backs up all the way to South Capitol Street for most well-attended games, because they have only 3 people taking $$ for all the fans coming in from VA. That line can only get (much) worse when all those folks get dumped off of 395 onto South Cap. Street, have additional traffic lights they need to wait for, AND then need to make a left turn in front of all the people who are coming north on South Cap. Street who also want to turn into the streets around the stadium.

Given how little the Nats / D.C. seem to have thought about where people will park, I'd be shocked if they'd given any greater thought to how they will efficiently get from their homes to the currently non-existent parking spaces after they are created.

"Schneider has been a very good defensive catcher for a long time." Yep. I won't disagree.

"this pitching staff success was impossible to project." somewhat true. But do you realize we're 14/16 teams in the NL for starter's ERA? While playing in one of the parks that gives the biggest advantage to pitchers in the league? Is that really a 'success'? Sure. We expected to be 16/16, but we shouldn't be throwing a party because we've slightly exceeded terrible expectations.

"schneider also has a great arm and shuts down oppsosing baserunners." Sure. But we're not talking about that. We're talking about his "game calling" abilities, his knowledge of how to handle the pitchers and what pitches to throw and when and where to throw them.

"if anything, if schneider had veteran pitchers he could concentrate on hitting much more" He had veteran pitchers last year and hit just as poorly.

re: crowds

it all has to do with frustration. if the new park is a major pain (getting to/leaving, parking, etc...) then I expect the attendance to remain in the mid 20s. even if the team is winning, an assumption of mid 30s is completely unreasonable.

i remember when Camden opened. you would have to get tickets months in advance. i just do not see it happening here. not on average. but i expect large turnouts for weekend series, high profile opponents, promotions days, and the like. just as it is now. the novelty will wear off by the middle of the summer.

and another thing -- tell MASN that we are tired of watching those stupid "get your tickets now" infomercials that Sutton reads. i bet he feels like an idiot. if they are going so fast, why do you run the commercial 2 times a game for 6 weeks straight? we get it, if we want to buy tickets, we will. stop trying to hold the hand that feeds you, i say.

Well, not exactly. Bowden can give him a job with the Nationals. He can't make him hit, or catch popups, or call a decent game.
If Flores IS a major leaguer (I think he is), he will be in the majors, somewhere, and probably sooner rather than later.
As someone once said, "At the end of the year, the .300 hitters will be hitting .300, and the.250 hitters will be hitting .250."
-------
"Young, of course, doesn't get to make the kind of roster decision that would make Flores a big leaguer or not. Bowden does."

From the research department on attendance:

In the 21st century, there have been 6 new parks opened. Here is the team, year, avg. attendance, and finish for those teams:

PIT - '00; 21,591; 5th
'01; 30,430; 6th (+ 8,839)

MIL - '00; 19,308; 3rd
'01; 34,704; 4th (+ 15,396)

CIN - '02; 22,911; 3rd
'03; 29,077; 5th (+ 6,166)

SDG - '03; 25,603; 5th
'04; 37,244; 3rd (+ 12,181)

PHI - '03; 27,901; 3rd
'04; 40,125; 2nd (+ 12,224)

STL - '05; 43,691; 1st
'06; 42,324; 1st (- 1,367)

Average gross bump = + 8,906.5

Given that STL is a far different animal than most MLB cities, the Cards were a 1st place club both years, and that Busch III is smaller than Busch II, let's take STL out.

Take out STL and average gross bump = 10,961.2

Given this, I would say that a 10K bump is very doable.

RE: parking - San Diego had the same parking issues as Fill in the Blank Park will have in SE, and a far less developed (and utilized) public transportation system. While they did run trolleys to the games and they have perfect weather, I think we can do 80% as well as the Friars did with the bump. .8 x 12,181 = 9,744.8 or close to 10,000.

Look for PAID attendance (thanks for dropping the "announced crowd" thing this year St. Barry) in the 33,500 - 35,500 range for next season. Higher if we compete (read +.500), lower if we don't.

But as St. Barry has always said: '09 is the attendance season that matters.

Need to get some numbers from Stan, but they should certainly sell more season tickets for next year than this year, so that should bump the attendance a bit right there. I think they'll get at least 30k per game next year, hopefully more.

Have to agree with PK bigtime on one issue, that the bars in DC never throw the game on. I can't count how many times I've gone into a bar in DC and the bartender tells me he doesn't get MASN. How can that be?! I make sure not to visit those bars again, ridiculous.

I would also say, better promotions and better marketing of promotions would help a lot too.

Also, its gonna help a lot if the base fans create a buzz of their own with their friends and co-workers. Get in touch with your job's unofficial social director and have an off-site or party at a game, people are usually pretty warm to that idea cause its a nice change from the usual watering hole that management selects for every event.

It's been argued that the early problems, slow start, etc, skews the Nats numbers down, and are therefore irrelevant because some of those guys are gone forever, and some have learned along the way, and are better now.

So just out of curiosity, I don't know the answer: how do the current starters rank among individual NL starting pitchers with more than innings?

----------
But do you realize [the Nationals] are 14/16 teams in the NL for starter's ERA? While playing in one of the parks that gives the biggest advantage to pitchers in the league? Is that really a 'success'? Sure. We expected [them] to be 16/16, but we shouldn't be throwing a party because [they]'ve slightly exceeded terrible expectations.
Posted by: Chris | September 5, 2007 11:40 AM

that read "more than X number of innings" when I posted it.

I'm not sure we can look at the attendance bumps the other teams got and assume we'll get something in the same range, because (in my mind) there are some extenuating circumstances for the parks with the biggest increases.

In MIL, where there was the largest increase of + 15,396 a game, they went from an old out-door park to a stadium with a retractable dome. That will necessarily increase otherwise lost attendance on bad weather days.

In San Diego, with the third largest bump of +12,181, the team went from playing in hard-to-get-to Qualcomm park, which was even worse for baseball than RFK is, to playing in a family friendly new park with outfield picnic space in the heart of town. We may have the opposite draw, as we go to a stadium that is harder to get to and doesn't have the same sort of picnic options and family draw.

The other big draw, Philly, at +12,224, is what we need to hope for in D.C., but I still don't see us getting that type of bump. In Philly they also went from a park that was even worse than RFK for baseball (the astro-turfed Vet), and made a change that was transportation neutral, as the new park was across the parking lot from the Vet. Unless I'm mistaken it also helped that in their first season in the new park the Phillies were contenders (I think) for much of that season.

I think we need to brace ourselves for numbers more in line with what the Pirates and Reds saw -- 6,000 to 8,000 a game, with much of that coming from early increases in the season ticket base. As much as I hope I'm wrong, I think Trader Jim is mistaken if he thinks he's ever going to see a season with average sales north of about 30,000.

I don't mind wagging the green finger a bit-- Honestly, we have great public transportation in this city (of course, the ability of the stations near the new stadium to accommodate the crowds remains to be seen). Most people in the burbs can park at a station and take a train in... WHY would anyone prefer to fight traffic and gridlock to drive to a game? Not to mention the limitations this poses on your enjoyment of the fine local microbrews that I pray to jeebus the new stadium concessions will offer.

Frankly, I hope all this talk about parking problems has the positive effect of encouraging all who can get here by other means to leave the Escalades at home/the Metro parking lot and take a nice relaxing ride to and from the game.

Here's a link with the team's pitching performances. The ERA column shows the entire team's ERA (not just the starters, unfortunately) through each game.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/tgl.cgi?t=p&team=WSN&year=2007

Once you get past the first few games, the team ERA peaked at 5.16 on April 25. Since that date, it's 4.36, which would put them in the middle of the pack, where they are overall. Much of that, though, is because of the bullpen's excellence. The starters have done better, but they're still not much better than the worst 4 or 5 teams, even if you take away the worst stretch. (and all teams have bad stretches)

As for the innings question, I'm not really sure what you're looking for there.

All fair points 408 Row 1.

What should not be lost in the equation is the change in the standings. I am hopeful (though I maintain that Jimbo is not the guy to get us over the hump) that the team will be significantly improved over the team that left Viera in March (one could argue it already is). Given the poor mouthing that came from the media and the club itself about this year's team and the (uncalled for in my opinion) trashing RFK took in the 2 prior years, there was no motivation to buy tickets for '07 unless you are (a) a diehard fan or (b) securing priority for SE. That motivation is good for the almost 2 million the Nats will draw for this year, but not much more.

The questions for next year and beyond are these: 1. Can the FO make Fill in the Blank Park a "destination" for the casual sports fan and 2. Can the Nats improve in the standings to be a steady .500 or better team?

If the answer is yes to BOTH of these questions, then DC will be a top 10-15 market in perpetuity (cracking the top 10 will be tough given the New York and LA duos, Cubs, Cards and Red Sox - that is a steady top 7 right there). If the answer is no to EITHER of these questions, the Nats will (sadly) resemble the Wizards in terms of support. Solid when they are good; mediocre when they are not.

The good news for Nats fans is that it will by 2037 before anyone can do anything about it.

37K per game? That's quite a stretch. The team needs to do much more in the way of publicity and marketing. They and the city will also need to really smooth out the parking and access issues to the new stadium. Metro is, of course, there, but it breaks down more often than metrorails in other big(ger) cities, and the Green Line seems to catch it worse than the other lines as far as breakdowns. For that reason alone, I rarely take Metro to anything downtown.

While Washington Post Radio has the games this season, I'll echo other posters and say, What is with the Post and the Sports section?? Every other sport is on the front page of the Sports section this morning, yet the Nationals get a miniscule mention about last night's victory over in the left margin. That's just lovely. Was there any mention about the Nats winning on the front page of the Post this morning, a little tiny squib, perhaps, pointing readers toward Sports? Hell, no. This is very frustrating. While the Post can't "root" for its hometown teams, it has plenty of room to do a better job with basic coverage of the Nationals (Barry's reporting excepted).

Location Location Location is to realestate as Parking Parking Parking is to the Nationals attendance in 2008. Like many others, if my 20-25 minute drive after a game becomes a 45 minute metro ride and 15 drive home, attendance will be way down from May 1 to Sept 30.

408 Row 1 makes a good point. Nats Park will have plenty of attractions, but good parking will not be one of them.

Fortunately, between Metro and the still-to-be-operating RFK lots, there will be plenty of capacity to get fans to and from. And either or both of these could be used for promotions such as ticket and merchandise giveaways.

Whatever the case, it's essential that the Lerners and the District government encourage vehicles to stay off South Capitol Street. Not to do so risks building a generation of enraged ex-fans.

Having said that, fans can take matters into their own hands by parking remotely and using transit. We Washingtonians are a car-spoiled lot, but we are going to have to get over it sooner or later. Opening Day 2008 at Nats Park will be as good a time as any to start.

JennX: I prefer to drive to the game for several reasons:

Metro Parking: $3.25
Round trip per person: $6.00 (approx)
Total cost for 2 people: $15.25
Trip time: 45 minutes mimimum each way, plus driving time to and from the metro stop. Total travel time: 2 hours minimum.

Cost for Parking at the game: $15.00+ gas
Trip time: 30 minutes average each way. Total travel time: 1 hour on average.

So, for what is maybe a couple extra dollars in gas, I can go to and from the game in air-conditioned comfort in my car that does not smell like an armpit, I do not have either someone's armpit or butt in my face, I can listen to the post-game coverage on the radio, it takes far less travel time, plus I can tailgate on the weekends.

To me, it's a no-brainer.

Sadly, there are fewer and fewer of us who remember RFK during the Senators II tenure in the 1960's. I remember one night game against the Brewers (first time, first team to wear those powder blue road uniforms), there were so few of us that the ushers began to refer to us by name.

Bad team. Bad town (at the time). Bad location.

I'd guess 34,000 per game first half of the year, 28,000 second half (if the team is still bad). 2.2-2.6 million give or take.

i don't believe schneider will ever hit over .270 but he knows as well as Ausmus where is bread is buttered. But how many different starters have we used this year? How many of them had any experience in the majors. I don't remember exactly but wasn't there a point where we had a grand total of 10 career wins from our starting pitching staff early on. I don't want to get caught up in the numbers so much as convey that the catcher is shouldering most of the load here. It's not like these young guys can walk over and ask Clemens or a Maddux how they do it. So i do believe Schneider deserves an enormous amount of credit this year. This entire organization could have spiraled out of control with embarassing performances. And yes i believe that it was seriously possible to affect all levels of the club. instead it has become a positive factor. that we didn't do irretrievable damage to our psyche is good! I'm trying to be realistic here though, so the whole "hey we aren't as bad as everyone thought!" feeling won't be as fun two years in a row. the new stadium sure helps, though. this club has a long ways to go. the difference between a .400 & .500 club is much easier to make up than a .500 to .600.

Keep FLORES in the majors please.

Just a few thoughts on attendance:

1. It is not reasonable to expect 3 million year-in and year-out. That is a nice goal to have, and it is attainable in strong years. But the major league average is, IIRC, about 2.5 million.

2. The Nats drew 2.7 million in 2005 and the falloff afterward was widely predicted given RFK's age, the team's lack of competitiveness, and a lot of bad PR and mistreatment of the season ticket holders during the offseason. I would consider it alarming for the long-term only of the club's management doesn't draw the right lessons from it and start treating its customers better.

3. The long-term success of the team at the gate will depend on its being competitive in most, not necessarily all, years. That is true in most baseball cities and it will be no less true here. My greatest concern is that excessively optimistic projections of long-term average attendance lay behind projections of how the District's debt would be paid off from constructing the ballpark. If those numbers fall short (failing to generate the needed ticket-tax revenue) DC will have to make up the shortfall out of general revenues, despite promises to taxpayers to the contrary.

4. If parking was an issue, it should have been brougt up a long time ago. Everybody who looked at that site when it was first proposed knew that parking would be limited. Remember that MLB insisted on that site and explicitly rejected any consideration of remaining at the RFK site, even in a replacement ballpark. So it is way past time to be hearing these alarmist complaints from the team -- they simply need to make it work, with whatever support from the city and Metro is reasonable.

About the parking: I suspect that the FO and the city are really going to work hard on the parking situation. They all know full well that it's the last big question mark to fill for success. The piece a few weeks ago mentioned collaboration with the city already, even approaching the Feds (DOT). I suspect the FO will get lots, if not full, cooperation from the city for opening weekend and I trust that if they don't have a long-term solution, they will have come up with a creative plan for the short-term.
That said, they will really need to come up with a big "wow, what a great idea" parking and traffic plan for that first month at least. And when they do have a plan, they'll need to get the word out-- hard and early--like nobody's business.

Chris: I can't disagree more about the catcher's role. You may think the pitchers have been so-so this year, but so many factors could have made them a downright laughing stock. All the early injuries for one. Chico never pitched above AA ball before coming up. Look how many random new faces showed up throughout the year. Look how many rookies and players who haven't seen the bigs in years showed up. Schneider's had to adjust to complete rotation turnover multiple times it seems. He needs to know all the hitters they're playing against, know what works to get them out, PLUS know the pitcher who's up and what works for HIM. He needs to have a solid rapport with the pitcher to coax him past a rough patch, settle him down if shaken up a bit. If the pitchers so far have had any problems I guarantee they were still minimized by Schneider's presence.
As for "not developing" Simontacchi, Bacsik, Speigner, or Hanrahan? Hanrahan doesn't count because he's holding his own and Simontacchi is hurt. But the others? He more than likely carried them further than just their talent alone would have done.

"37K per game? That's quite a stretch. The team needs to do much more in the way of publicity and marketing." - Samantha7

I agree.

I have yet to see a major league quality marketing effort from the Lerners. There are plenty of good ideas listed above. Attendance will increase if the Lerners put forth an effort.

Why would the Nationals expect people to attend games if they don't agressively advertise the damn team!

The Nationals have drawn well in games with promotions. Of course most of those tickets were sold at "premium" prices, so the extra advertising paid for itself at the gate.

I'm a little shocked at all the folks ready to jettison Schneider for a rookie catcher. Flores was great last night and will probably develop into a terrific everyday catcher. But he couldn't possibly take over now the key role Schneider plays for this team -- to handle the Nats' pitching staff. His skills in that area easily make up for his low batting average, although he's had some timely hitting, too. (Remember those recent doubles?) In fact, hits by a good catcher are really just gravy. And don't forget -- starting catchers get pretty banged up over a season of 150 or so games -- let's see how great Flores' average is when he's put in all those grinding hours crouched behind the plate.

All this talk about parking at the new stadium is rubbish. When the Redskins moved to FedUp Field everyone complained about a complete lack of Metro access to the new home for the Skins. Everyone complained about having to drive to Raljon (ne Landover) to see a football game.

Now were looking at the complete opposite situation. The new Nats home will be more accessible by Metro than by driving into town. That's just the way it's going to be folks. If you can't bring yourself to take Metro then be ready to deal with the fact there won't be enought parking spaces for you.

Pretty soon people will embrace Metro as the best way to get to the stadium and will have forgotten about this parking nonsense. There's no parking around Wrigley Field or Yankee Stadium and most people take the train to those games. Have for decades.

Count me out if this happens again. I went to the game last night, but, once again, had trouble finding a taxicab to take me home. I went to a Nats service counter/office near the entrance I entered and said I couldn't find a cab last time I was here. They told me to come to this office after the game and they would call a cab. Yeah, sure. Is this how it is done at the other major league ballparks? I doubt it. Can't Kasten make some arrangements with some cab company to have cabs lined up and waiting from say 9 o'clock to onward on game nites? If they don't have such a plan for the new ballpark: Forget it. I won't go.

"My greatest concern is that excessively optimistic projections of long-term average attendance lay behind projections of how the District's debt would be paid off from constructing the ballpark. If those numbers fall short (failing to generate the needed ticket-tax revenue) DC will have to make up the shortfall out of general revenues, despite promises to taxpayers to the contrary."

Give that man a cigar. To me, this comment hits the nail on the head. The city is facing a financial debacle.

The Lerners will always make money. The amount of money they spend will always be less than their revenue stream--whatever that happens to be. So if attendance lags, so will spending on the ball club. It will all depend on the previous year's gate receipts, minus their profit and on expenses they count every bean. I guarantee you the Lerner family will be making money--whether attendance is 10,000 or 40,000 per game.

Shoot the messenger: the grousing about the WaPo's placement of game stories is misplaced. The Post's editors clearly have made a judgment based on their estimate of reader interest. That's their job. Better to place blame where it belongs--on the Lerner/Kasten management team, which from my perspective failed to come up with a marketing program for a very large, very sophisticated market with all kinds of alternative leisure-time activities competing for attention. "Yeh, the team's going to be mediocre" was hardly a winning marketing theme for 2007. "Come see the same mediocre team in our new ball park" apparently is the mantra for 2008.

JohnR (Va) and Mike G are the type of "fan" that the people who believe that Washington is not a baseball town are thinking of. We will see what we see. The team should be better next year and a contender in 2009. Than we will see if DC Metro is to "sophisticated" for baseball. As for Mike G, you got to be kidding me.

I'm very concerened about attendance - but it's unfair to label DC as "not a baseball town" - The town hasn't had a team for 33 years and lots of potential fans still root for the team in Baltimore, which is understandable since there were no alternatives and sports allegiances usually stay with people. It does dilute the potential fan base, but there's still enough people to boost Nats' attendance to the 2005 level if the marketing is good, good options for partial plans exist (20 is too darn many for most people - 6, 10 and 13 options are needed), and the team wins. There's not one town labeled a "good baseball town" that doesn't have at least one or two memorable years that sparked or renewed interest in the team (yes, even the Cubs made the play-offs in 84, 2003 and some other years). Winning is a prerequisite.

Still, the Nats do almost no marketing in DC, PG County and Montgomery County - that needs to change right away. I have a friend who lives in PG and he says he wants to go to a game, but never hears a thing about the Nats, no advertising, no place to buy tickets. Every agency and company has a rec association where people can buy tickets - few if any offer the Nats, almost all I know of offer the O's - my place offers O's tix, but says the Nats tried to strong arm them into buying more tickets than they thought they could sell. The team's ad campaign is terrible - they need to fix so much - but winning will help more than anything else.

The numbers don't lie. I'm willing to become wrong, but until they *do* draw that 3 millionth fan, until people stop asking "Why are you wearing a Wilson cap?", until people learn how and where to get a cab at the ballpark (19th St. just s. of East Capitol, and not too long after the game ends - the cabbies don't like taking drunks who want to haggle over the fare to Union Station), until what gets said/printed/posted doesn't mostly reduce to "boy, do they suck", like it did this year (clinically proven: people remember and believe what they hear often enough, even when what they are really getting is "do NOT!", even if it is a total debunking, they remember, and believe, "Nats suck"), then DC is what it is, and it ain't what it ain't.
And yes, the marketing IS as bad as the Post et al. said the team would be.

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I'm very concerned about attendance - but it's unfair to label DC as "not a baseball town" ...
The team's ad campaign is terrible - they need to fix so much - but winning will help more than anything else.
Posted by: Natswriter | September 6, 2007 01:51 PM

Remember, this is a town that's had three (barely) above .500 baseball season three times in the last 51 years (I think 1946, 1952, and 1969) and no play-offs/World Series since 1933. There's NO ONE under 45 who even remembers a good baseball team in DC, let alone ANY team - it takes time and some more creativity to get more fans to first know baseball exists, second care about the team, and third, shell out $$ for a game.

There's another issue - most of the team's marketing and presence is in NoVA and people there just aren't going to go to games except for tickets thru their job, neighborhood assoc, or country club. It's a work-aholic culture. I have family who both make, taking both spouse's incomes, over $250,000 a year and, between them both, and they both love sports and grew up here and don't go to Baltimore, they've been to a whopping 3 games!! The team needs to widen its marketing, move its AAA team to Richmond even if they have to pay off the Braves, get tourist/travel agencies to add games and ballpark tours to their customers, offer flexible partial game plans, get ticket offices in convenient locations and don't charge extra to buy them there... I could go on and on and on - only winning will get fans above 2.75 - 3 million - but good marketing and presence will make it hard not to hit at least 2.5 mil...as long as the team wins 70+ games.

The team does not s**k - they are 54-52 the last 106 games! Mediocre? Sure. Compelling stories - Yep - The team just isn't telling them - they're letting the "Nats s**k" message trump a much, much nicer one...

natswriter, thanks for the trenchant response. I agree with you 100% about the need and value of a good professional marketing job, which has SO not happened, and the importance of fielding a competitive team in this market, which almost did happen.

That said, the "33 years without a ML team" argument is a bit of a red herring (ok, technically a Genetic Fallacy). The preponderance of people in and around DC didn't grow up here (me included). If that argument held, there would be few baseball fans in Mississippi, Alabama, etc., where there is no team for hundreds of miles, and that's not the case, last I heard.
Baseball is a part of the culture, or not. Not having a DC team doesn't help, but that's not why this isn't (yet) a baseball town. There are other reasons.

I think you know this, but for the record, I wasn't saying the team sucks, I was saying that that ubiquitous message drowned out any chance the team had to draw fans when they exceeded those low expectations, and played some pretty interesting ballgames. I'm the guy who picked them to finish 80-81: you could look it up!

"The preponderance of people in and around DC didn't grow up here (me included)."

CEvans - thanks for your response, I know it isn't you saying the team stinks - you correctly pointed out that this is the local and national message most non-uber fans have about the Nats.

Your comment above is a commonly held untrue belief - many, many people grew up in the Md-VA suburbs and have stayed here into 2-3 generations - I'm one of those locals.

Baseball becomes part of a culture by being available and by the team having at least one year of playoffs and winning that people can hold on to in the inevitable lean years.

The comparison to those other towns and places doesn't hold - they are not large metro cities like DC, they never had baseball and had to compensate by following the closest teams.
Much like people in DC and Va did by going to Baltimore. In fact, many O's fans said they couldn't compete in the AL East without those fans - I disagree with them, but if DC's such a bad baseball town, why were these so many of them?
I've enjoyed your opinion and discussion, though. It's nice to have a civil disagreement.

natswriter, that's a gross generalization, IMO. I live in NoVA and go to 10-12 games per year. Many other fans in the NoVA area are season ticket holders. The people with whom I'm acquainted purchase tickets on their own, as do I, rather than acquiring them through their job, neighborhood association, or country club (I don't even belong to a country club). The work-aholic culture pervades the entire metro area, IMO, not only Northern Virginia (and I'm quite far from being one, just for the record).

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There's another issue - most of the team's marketing and presence is in NoVA and people there just aren't going to go to games except for tickets thru their job, neighborhood assoc, or country club. It's a work-aholic culture.

Moving forward a reply to a posting from several days ago, as, oddly enough, (see my comment on work-aholism below) I've been away on vacation for several days and am still getting caught up from my vacation days the week before that.

natswriter, that's a gross generalization, IMO. I live in NoVA and go to 10-14 games per year. Many fans in the NoVA area are season ticket holders. The majority of those fans with whom I'm acquainted purchase tickets on their own, as I do, rather than acquiring them through their job, neighborhood association, or country club (I don't even belong to a country club). Also, the work-aholic culture pervades the entire D.C. metro area, IMO, and is not restricted to Northern Virginia or any other subregion (I'm far from being one myself, just for the record).

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There's another issue - most of the team's marketing and presence is in NoVA and people there just aren't going to go to games except for tickets thru their job, neighborhood assoc, or country club. It's a work-aholic culture.