6- guzman, extra basehit machine, if he played a whole season at RFK would have tremendous number of 2b and 3b. great glove, fast turn on the double play.

4- belliard, shocking range, quick on the double play and a decent 6/7 hitter.

lopez just doesnt have the mindset that manny is looking for. manny likes heart, people like fick who may not have the skill set but have a baseball mind and desire will always be more important to a team than cold hearts like lopez.

if lopez can have a good spring and decent april/may he will be a valuable chip, switch hitting former all star middle infielder, but i hope he is not a part of the future

I can't think of a good reason not to play Ronnie Belliard, honestly. After that, I simply shrug when it comes to the other two. I do believe that Lopez will have a better year next year, and that Guzman wouldn't come close to what he was doing this year. Guzman has only one year left on his contract, but the Nats could control Lopez at least one year longer. With no shortstop yet in the system worth waiting for in the near term, I guess i would go with Lopez.

I would start Belliard at second and Guzman at short.

Belliard suffers from the stigma of being a "role player" [possibly because that's all he is; it's not an *undeserved* stigma. . .] and Manny and the braintrust will continue to view him that way. But he has outperformed Lopez over the course of a full season, and love gets it right -- he turns a QUICK double-play. Lopez should be forced to endure what every Nats infielder must endure -- the wait until Christian gets hurt. Either that, or he can play his way back into the lineup.

Lopez has over a week left to do what Spanky did at third, and Kearns did in right -- prove that he WANTS to improve his performance, and dig down deep to do it. Both those guys were looking at major disappointments, and appear to have willed themselves to a place where they're turning in minor disappointments that bode well for the future.

As much as I hate the Mets [and their RFK-ruining fans], I hope that the Nats push them into the playoffs. Bring out the broom tonight, but then Take It to the Phils and do the same goddamned thing to them!

Depth is a great thing. The question may be who are the better bench players? And who stays healthy? I think there is room for all of them for sure, possibly even Jimenez. But like you implied Barry, we have to upgrade somewhere. But where? Everyone says CF but is it worth tying ourselves up? Bowden has done an amazing with the scrap heap, now we test his true mettle in making the cold-hearted deal improve the team.

As a former Reds fan, I am big Lopez fan, but to be honest Belliard and Guzman have been better this year. I don't know that Lopez is going to be worth the money he will command -- might be better to non-tender him. But to me the big question regarding Lopez staying here is what happens in 2009 when Guzman's contract is up. Is there anyone on the horizon to play shortstop?

Felipe Lopez has had a bad year in 2008. Christian Guzman has had bad years before. Ronnie Belliard has had lesser years. Any one of them could fit on a championship team if the other 7 starters were productive, but none of them could reasonably be expected to be one of the top 4 producers in the lineup.

Next year? I would certainly want to give Guzman a chance to play shortstop and Belliard has earned the right to be the starter entering spring training, but Lopez has the most upside of the group.

Neither Brian Roberts or Chase Utley are likely to become available this winter. So I would expect the upgrades in the lineup to come elsewhere in the lineup.

(Oh and btw, great game last night. The Nats are breaking down the Mets and building good habits for the future. Go Gnats!)

Sorry to stray from the topic, but there is something troubling me. While Chad is going to absorb another pounding from fans regarding his weak performance, is no one troubled by the "no-doubles" defense employed by the Nats in the 9th inning last night?

Is there something about doubles that makes them more lethal (relative to singles) in the 9th than in the 1st through 8th innings?

With a normal outfield deployment, Chad gives up a lone single and is out of the inning on what turned out instead to be the 2nd single, a ball Nook easily catches were he not positioned near the warning track. Or, is Chad's role to encourage hitters to belt the ball deep to the wall where the outfielders can finally be a factor?

If I were a member of the media (hint, hint) I'd query Manny on just what justification they have for this bizarre and dubious strategy.

TomTerp:

The idea is that you want to force the team to get three hits to score a run rather than two. It's the same reason the 1B and 3B play close to the lines in the 9th inning. It's classic "by the book" strategy which Manny almost always utilizes. Unlike FRobby who constantly did strange things, Acta always makes the normal percentage moves - late inning defensive replacements, pitcher/batter match ups, etc. If they had been playing at normal depth and the third hit had been something over the OFs' heads that scored both runs, we'd all be moaning about stupid defensive positioning.

As far as the Guzman, Belliard, Lopez thing goes, the answer lies in how close Nats' management thinks the rest of the roster is to competing. They have no middle infield prospects above low A - perhaps none anywhere. A pennant winner could probably get away with one of those three in their line up, but not two. I've thought since last year when the trade was made that Lopez should not be on this team. I'd trade him in the off season, plow through another year of overall team improvement with Belliard and Guz up the middle, and then look to upgrade one of those positions after '08. The Nats should hope to get younger next year (starting rotation and Maxwell maybe) and one hitter (Rowand or Fukedome) and come out on the other side with maybe 5 more wins than this year in 2008. They should then look to contend in 2009.

Tomterp, I was thinking the sa$e thing last night, if Log, wasn't sitting on the wall with 2 outs it's a 1-2-4 inning and no heartburn for one grounder up the middle.

For the middle infield the only real option is to arbitrate Lop and give him every opportunity to start at 2nd, Belli is a great backup and can fill in very well if Guz gets hurt or FLop falters.

Depending on how they all perform any on of the 3 could be traded away.

Guzman, Lopez, Belliard. I don't think any of them are good enough. You could get by with one of them as a complimentary player, but you would need an offensive upgrade at the other position (and a bunch of others!).

Seems to me Felipe's got to have the inside track on the starter's job at 2b not because he's played well this year (he hasn't) or because he's a better player than Belliard (career-stats wise, they're close, with Belliard a slightly better .274/.338/.412 to Lopez's .257/.327./396. The reason he has to have the inside track is this - Felipe's going to be 28 years old, Belliard, 33. The simple fact is we're probably looking for something like a 10-game improvement next year to get to the .500-ish level, and in the meantime, figuring out what to do about all the similar, semi-good, but not-quite-good-enough players (like Belliard, Lopez, and Guzman). Belliard is definitely not the 2b for the next 3-5 years. Lopez might be. For that, he's got to get the inside track, until he plays his way out. If Lopez comes out and hits .240 for Apr-June, then I think you look to Belliard, and try to accelerate some of the MI's that were at GCL this year a little bit faster than otherwise, and look for a stopgap solution. But it's more likely at 28, that Felipe will recapture the production he had at 25, then it is that Belliard, at 33, will recapture what he had at 30.

lopez isn't a superstar by any means but he's good enough for now and next year. i hope we don't turn into a one and done franchise with unreasonable expectations where you are great immediately or we have no use for you. people were ready to turn on guzman early and now he's the answer? i'd like to see a little more consistency in our perspective.

just because we have decided we are ready doesn't mean its the best time to act. run these guys out there again next year. free agents are unlikely to help immediately and would do more harm in the near future tying up flexibility we'll need once we have more answers concerning the progress of our minor leaguers. if bowden can swing a trade, good, but other than that we should just continue sprinkling in the youth. draft early round bats next year and we'll be ready to look at free agents for 2009 once we know how this stadium plays.

it's fun damnit, fun.

Guz, FLop and Ronnie - they are all mediocre, but I would take Ronnie over the other 2. Nat Bisquit is right - all #7 hitters. But hey, our ENTIRE starting lineup is made up of guys that should be hitting 7 or 8.

Hopefully Smiley will be working his way up.

__________
...Is there anyone on the horizon to play shortstop?

Posted by: Ray | September 19, 2007 08:15 AM

Unfortunately, the rumors about Smiley are that he has an amazing glove, but very little in the bat category... Not exactly an improvement over Belliard, for example, who has turned out to be quite handy with the glove and has at least a little bit of pop.

By the way, that HR was by Belliard was HUGE last night: from the 400-level seats near the LF foul pole, my buddy and I (and the several rows of obnoxious Mets guys in front of us) could see just how close that got to being an upper-decker... That's more power than I thought Belliard had, for sure.

Smiley is 17 years old, we have no idea what kind of Bat he'll have when he's finally ready for the big, in about 4 years!

Stephen King is similair if a bit older, probably our future secon baseman, but not for at least 3 years.

I would start Guzman next year and platoon the other two--Lopez vs. righties,Belliard vs. lefties.Both are valuable bench infdrs and PHers. If Guzman plays like he did in 2005(which I sure hope not!)you can always put Lopez back at short.I agree w/Longterm---damnit this IS fun!

Guzman at short, Lopez at second, Belliard to back up or be traded. Guzman will probably hit around career average (.265-75 ??) and Lopez should (but who knows?) come out of his funk. Belliard is probably better team player than Lopez but has he ever played full time?

I second the comment about not becoming a one-and-done team. Guzman was the "trade for a bag of balls" player as recently as last May. Then he came back and went on a hot streak and got hurt and we never found out if it was just a hot streak or if it was the real deal. I'm not convinced he is the Messiah of the Middle Infield, yet.

I do agree with the comment about Felipe not being the sort of guy Manny is cultivating on the team. Unlike Zimm or Kearns, Lopez has not stayed positive and I think it's responsible for worsening his slump.

So I'd start Guz and Bells on opening day. But use Jiminez or Lopez as backup?

Re: Lopez. I don't have any strong feelings one way or the other [except that he's the best looking guy on the team ;)]. But what makes me uncomfortable about all the discussion about him is the broad, sweeping assumptions being made about him as an overall player, as well as a person. The only true, first person bits of evidence we have are a spate of uncharacteristic errors and a woefully slumping batting average. The fact that this slump came on so emphatically and so swiftly should tell you its reason is something specific, not that he's a crappy player and should be non-tendered. C'mon now. Everyone was making the same generalizations about Kearns and Logan in their slumps, but it's all but forgotten now that they're hitting (Well. Some of you are holding on to Logan's slump with a death grip). And then there's the question of his attitude. We have an anecdote from Barry. That's about it. We have no real idea what he's thinking, how he's acting, what his reasons are for the things we've heard about. None. He very well could be an A**hole, but not every great player is a media darling either. We all know he's a great 2baseman, and he has, very recently I might add, been a great shortstop.
No need to be making any huge changes to Lopez's position yet. Worse players in worse and longer slumps have been given more patience and better chances than ya'll are giving him. Next year's lineup should, and likely will be, Guzman at SS, Lopez at 2B, and Belly on the bench.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

NatsNut's comment reminds me of a certain Mr. Jones that some bloggers are desperate to have on this team, despite a slump that is far worse than that of Mr. Lopez.

Also, anyone who was among the chorus of naysayers on Wily Mo probably should be keeping a low profile right now.

Manny Acta deserves to be Manager of the Year and is the man that will take the Nationals to the World Series.

I say that after reading the gamer and finding this:

"Like Manny said all year long, 'Play hard nine innings,' " Belliard said. "It's a long way."

and then...

"For us," Cordero said, "it's a pride thing."

Both of which prove that this:

"They already have grasped the concept that it's a nine-inning ballgame," Acta said. "Don't panic."

Has created this:

In the words of veteran Mets outfielder Moises Alou, "The Nationals looked like a very inspired team."

After this season, with this team (on paper), to achieve that result is a certain specialness.

They Nats are probably tempted to non-tender Felipe, since they may feel he his not worth the 4-plus mill. How about this: does an intention to non-tender enable the Nats to go to Felipe and sign him for let's say 2.5 or 3 per year over 2 years? He would probably be a valuable guy at that amount. Do rules allow this?

If we non-tender FLop we can't re-sign him till after May 1st. I think that is to prevent teams doing exactly what you just outlined.

I sort of feel bad for FLop. He did what was asked and switched from SS to 2B, then when Guz got hurt in the first game, had to switch back. Then went back to 2B when Guz got healthy, then switched back again when Guz got hurt. In those few games at second, I thought FLop did a decent job fielding and hitting. I wouldn't mind seeing him at second for a full season to see if that improves his demeanor.

That being said, I also wouldn't lose any sleep if they don't tend an offer to him and he leaves. I'm perfectly fine with Guz at short and Belly at second for next year.

Granted, there really isn't anyone in the minors anywhere near ready to jump in if any of the current infielders leave.

After next season, here are the FA's at 2B and SS that the Nats could conceiveably go after:

2B: Jamey Carroll (33), Ray Durham (35), Mark Grudzielanek (37), Orlando Hudson (29), Luis Rivas (28).

SS: Orlando Cabrera (32), Alex Cintron (28), Alex Cora (31), Adam Everett (30), Rafael Furcal (30), Nick Punto (29), Edgar Renteria (32)

I know this would be a pipe dream, but I'd take Guz/Belly/Lopez for another year if that means a chance of signing Orlando Hudson and Rafael Furcal after next season.

and hey, since I'm dreaming ...

Trade Guzman and a slew of our relief pitchers up I-95 for Tejada. He's got two years left and all things considered, at $13M per year wouldn't be a bad signing. He's a durable player (until he broke a bone and went on the DL for the first time in his career), and still a pretty good hitter (.300/.356/.450, 17 HR, 75 RBI). Place him in the #5 hole behind Zim and Pena and that changes the look of this club tremendously.

OK, I'm waking up now ...

Given FLop's performance and (at least public) attitude this season, the Nats may very well be tempted to non-tender him. However, what's counting against him now may very well work in the Nats favor should they choose to offer him arbitration. No chance he wins a significant raise after his numbers this season, and when you look at his numbers overall, he's certainly trending downwards.

If you non-tender him, you have to replace him. As we've covered in great depth in these chats it is a absurdly thin middle infield FA market and the Nats have nobody ready in their system. Who's a better replacement over the next year or two as the Nats continue to build? I think you can argue over who starts where between Guz/FLop/RonB but I don't think you can find better replacements w/o packaging up a trade that would certainly only include one of those guys as who would take two?

Additionally, both FLop and RonB add flexibility to the bench in that they can play either 2B or SS.

I think the starting pitching is on it's way. I think the OF is getting there and that missing pieces can be found through FA or in the lower system. All rebuilding teams that reach the point of contention have that moment where they believe they are one or two players away. Perhaps the middle infield is going to be those one or two guys for the Nats.

I think the more important question going into next year is not how to manage the middle infield, but who in the heck is going to play 1B, and what do you do with the guy who comes up on the short end of that debate?

"No chance he wins a significant raise after his numbers this season, and when you look at his numbers overall, he's certainly trending downwards."

That's not really how the arbitration process works. Lopez will probably nearly double his salary this year because he's played every day, and because, prior to this season, he's had some very good seasons.

Amen to that. MA-NNY AC-TA!! (clap clap CLAP CLAP!!)

---

In the words of veteran Mets outfielder Moises Alou, "The Nationals looked like a very inspired team."

After this season, with this team (on paper), to achieve that result is a certain specialness.

"I hope you're enjoying this spoiler thing against the Mets."
------

Are you kidding me?? I'm LOVING this spoiler thing against the Mets!

Second that, and NatsNut's comments re. players generally (even Chief??? :-) )

---

e said (in part): I sort of feel bad for FLop. He did what was asked and switched from SS to 2B, then when Guz got hurt in the first game, had to switch back. Then went back to 2B when Guz got healthy, then switched back again when Guz got hurt.

natsfan1a: No. Chief is the exception. tear him to shreds. ;)

_
Second that, and NatsNut's comments re. players generally (even Chief??? :-) )

Posted by: natsfan1a | September 19, 2007 10:56 AM

Mr. Barry, if you read this post please give us a Ross I-pitched-all-of-one-inning-in-Sept Detweiler update when you get a chance. Thanks!

Rizzo update - sort of - if you count no mention of his name as a good sign.

From ESPN Rumor Central on the Pirates GM search:

Bernazard talks to Pirates
Sep 14 - The Pirates have interviewed current Mets assistant GM Tony Bernazard for their vacant general manager's job, reports ESPN's Peter Gammons.

Bernazard is currently an assistant to Omar Minaya, and before that was an executive with the Players Association following his playing career.

Sources have also told the Philadelphia Daily News that Ruben Amaro Jr., the Phillies' assistant GM, might be the front-runner for the Pirates' job.

Amaro, who has already interviewed for the Astros' vacant GM job, told the Daily News that the Pirates had yet to ask the Phillies for permission to interview him.

Yer funny, NatsNut! :)

---

No. Chief is the exception. tear him to shreds. ;)

Ah, the heck with all that, Barry. We want the inside scoop on the "presidential surprises" that Kasten hinted at in the radio pregame show yesterday! (Teddy wins!!??)

---

Scheduling note: Because Stan Kasten is holding an "informal media roundtable" (at which I'm sure he'll offer little if any insight into things such as next year's season ticket base and his offseason strategy for improving the team) at 1 p.m., the chat has been moved till 2:15 p.m. Please join me then.

On the middle infielders, I think we have to keep all three and play the hot hands.

If you look at career numbers, three year averages and this year's performances, you come away expecting something like this from the three candidates (avg/obp/slg hr-rbi-sb):

Belliard .280/.335/.429 11-57-6
Lopez .265/.330/.400 13-57-22
Guzman .265/.310/.380 5-45-10

In other words, Belliard and Lopez are better hitters than Guzman, and Lopez is the only one likely to steal a meaningful number of bases.

However, Guzman is a better shortstop than Lopez (fielding percentage/range factor/zone rating):

Lopez .959/4.19/.812
Guzman .971/4.37/.809

Another thing worth noting is that while Belliard and Guzman hit both lefties and righties, Lopez bats 30-50 points higher against lefties.

Finally, Lopez is 27, Guzman is 30 and Belliard is 32.

Where does that leave us? I find myself agreeing with Marc above. I think you try to give Lopez a fresh start in Spring Training and see if he can fulfill his potential. That means Belly on the bench to start. But that's a good idea because he can handle that veteran utility player/pinch hitting role better than Lopez can. And you give Ronnie some starts, perhaps against tough righthanders; and maybe you put Lopez at short and Ronnie at second against some lefthanders.

Then see where we are at the end of May. If Lopez is sulking and batting .240 then you play Belliard more. If Guzman is hurt or batting .200 again, as he did for most of 2005, then you play Belly and Lopez.

And build from within.

A mishmash of things here...

The No-Doubles defense, is the "conventional wisdom." Whoop-dee-do, get out some spray charts and lets do some analysis whether it really hurts or helps.

Last week, I read a list of Manager-of-the-Year candidates - and Manny was not on the list, But Willie Randolph was with his $100M payroll, now his name has crept onto the list of Managers who may get fired (pending the Mets collapse).

Kasten's presser - Barry - here's my questions:
- I understand writing off 2007, but will there be real marketing for next year?
- Will there be a real promotional schedule?
- What's going on on the last day? Have the Nats published a schedule of events? I'd hate to show up 15 minutes before the 1st pitch and learn that missed 20 minutes of stuff....
- When will I find out where my seats are for 2008?
- Any update on naming the New Stadium?

I was on vacation last week and didn't read through the posts while I was gone, so I apologize if this has been covered already but I just noticed that Sunday's game time has been changed to 12:05 (originally 1:35). Why?

I normally don't go the Nats website (rarely any updated info, Ladson rarely writes anything that isn't already covered by Sir Barry, and the site is just too busy with worthless stuff), but for some reason I logged on today and barely noticed the time change announcement. Thank goodness I did or else I'd have missed a lot.

Also, how does this affect the tailgating party for all of us Barry disciples?

e: Game time was changed due to the DC pointy-ball team having a game at 4:30pm out in Landover.

How about this for another Jimbo reclamation project (courtest LA Times):

Bartolo Colon appears to have pitched for the last time in front of the home fans at Angel Stadium. Colon, who won the Cy Young Award in 2005 but has since been hampered by injury, was scratched from today's scheduled start because of back stiffness, Manager Mike Scioscia said Tuesday. If Colon does not start next week, his Angels career probably is over. The Angels do not figure to include him on their playoff roster, and his contract expires after the season.

colon would be amazing, only if burger king comes back and then we will have the most barrels in the league. im all in favor of that.

There's a lot of talk out of Detroit that they need to trade for a Shortstop. I say we trade them Guzman for a couple of young players. Maybe this is why Bowden is adamant about getting Guz back on the field this year?

Thanks for asking, e. Here's an updated invite with new, improved directions:

Come one, come all to celebrate the last Nats game at RFK with a BANG (and, hopefully, a ZOOM) at the NJ blogger's tailgate event!

Date: Sunday, September 23

Time: From 10:05 AM (when parking lots open) to approx. 11:35 AM (game time is 12:05)

Where (NEW DIRECTIONS): Northeast corner of Parking Lot 8 at RFK, i.e., the corner nearest the East Capitol Street Bridge, away from the stadium, and furthest in from the entrance from the freeway. It's in the upper right-hand corner if you look at the RFK parking map at

http://washington.nationals.mlb.com/was/ballpark/directions.jsp

The ballpark link above has driving directions. If you are coming from the Stadium-Armory Metro station, walk past the Armory and towards the main gate of the stadium. At the front of the stadium, turn right and go down the steps. Walk straight ahead, past the MASN trailer on your right and the ticket windows on your left, then go through the tunnel that runs under the road to Lot 8. Proceed to the tailgate site as described above. Look for Hendo's black '07 Miata with the Planet NJ sign on top. Hendo will also provide a sound system for our musical pleasure.

Attire: Baseball casual (Nats gear or Meat Hook t-shirts for the carnivores among us)

What to Bring: Chair, if desired, your own drinking water, and something to eat or drink. Volunteered so far have been sweet muffins or scones and fruit, bagels and cream cheese, English muffins and hard cheese, poached salmon, coffee, white wine, and plates/cups/napkins/utensils. Other contributions are welcome.

Your hosts include: Jenn-X, Hendo, Natsfan1a, SC Nats Fan, and Wigi

I've been trying to keep track of potential attendees via postings. Apologies if I've inadvertently left someone out, or mistakenly attributed interest to someone who hasn't any. According to my notes, those who have recently indicated an interest in attending include: cevansjr, e, Flynnie, Jenn-X, Hendo, Natsfan1a, NatsNut, SC Nats Fan, Sect. 506, ShawNatsFan, theraph, and Wigi. Earlier in the season, annandalenatsfan, Frank20, Geezer, Sect. 502, and Swanni had also expressed interest. Last but not least, we hope that our favorite scribe will stop by at some point.

Please come join us so that we can put faces to the monikers!

Yeah lets sign Colon and trade him for Sizemore.

#4, thanks for taking up the argument regarding the "no doubles" defense.
-----------------------------------------
#4's comments:
"The idea is that you want to force the team to get three hits to score a run rather than two. It's the same reason the 1B and 3B play close to the lines in the 9th inning. It's classic "by the book" strategy which Manny almost always utilizes. Unlike FRobby who constantly did strange things, Acta always makes the normal percentage moves - late inning defensive replacements, pitcher/batter match ups, etc. If they had been playing at normal depth and the third hit had been something over the OFs' heads that scored both runs, we'd all be moaning about stupid defensive positioning. "
----------------------------------------

Year to date, in 5,163 at bats, the Mets have 954 singles, 271 doubles and 25 triples. They are FAR more likely to get 3 or 4 singles in an inning than to get a couple of extra base hits, or even a mix of singles / doubles. The ratio is 3.22 singles per double / triple. The "prevent" defense I believe increases the chances of singles, but does not reduce the extra base probability enough to make up for the potential damage from the far more likely cluster of singles. Therefore, I believe the smart percentage play is to use your normal defense.

What makes the 9th inning so different anyway? If playing your outfielders back on the edge of the warning track is such a good idea in the 9th, why not employ the strategy all the time?

I bet if you could play a whole season with your defense back, and a whole season in the normal position, you'd see dramatically higher runs scored against you in the prevent defense, which is why it should rarely if ever be employed.

So far as playing your corner infielders on the line, I hate that strategy as well. I think as more statistical analysis of defense becomes available, the evidence will show that this is poor strategy as well, but for now I'll just have to say I have an uncorroborated hunch.

tomterp, the other thing to consider is how many outs there are and baserunners.

In this case Chief had already gotten two out so the focus should be on getting that last out, not preventing a certain kind of hit. However, once they had a man on first you set up to avoid the double so the man on first won't score.

This part is a tough call for me, because with two out and a two run lead it's not catastrophic if the next hitter does hit a double the runner at 1st scores (probably) but you don't lose the lead.

This come to another issue, which is how relief pitchers are judged statistically. I think their should be a split of ERA for inherited runners scored. Say if an inherited runner on 3rd comes scores the original pitcher would be charge 3/4 of a earned run and the reliever 1/4, they go halsies on a man on 2nd an 1/4 vs 3/4 for a man on 1st.

Also, for saves there should be some statistic worked in for how many runs were given up. There is a lot of difference between a 1 run lead with runners on and a 3 run lead with the bases empty, but for the save statistic there is no difference.

M.I. thoughts:

1. Guzman: Could be good for 5 years...but, he seems to be proving to be fragile. He fulfills all of the modern SS requirements (solid hitter, excellent fielder), but can you pencil him in 140 - 150 games a year?

2. FLop: Attitude problem? Good 2nd baseman, with good instincts and a solid bat for 2b. Reasonable 7 hitter, OK 2 hitter. Can't play SS. Does not have the arm. I don't think that Zimm trusts him. This means that Zimm overplays 3rd (does this contribute to his errors?).

3. Belli: Reasonable 2nd, not sure at SS, OK as the third choice at 1st and can even give Zimm a break at 3rd. His age works against him. Keep him as the "perfect" utility infielder (Nats are going to have to pass on Fick, because they are probably going to push for a 13 man pitching staff).

4. F/A: Nothing out there this year and the '09 class is fair, not great.

5. Tejada: Stay the heck away. Nats won't be serious, serious contenders 'til '09 or '10. He'll be done by then.

6. Trades: Now may be the time to pick up a serious prospect at AA level from a team with a blockage at 2nd or SS. If you want to go with pure speed and D at SS, Burriss may be available from S.F. He's at A this year, but the timing may be wrong for them and him, as they need to turn over the roster sooner rather than later and have a 41 YO SS. The question always is: Can you go home again?

BTW, I may show up for the Party. Depends on who drives.

ESJ, good point on inherited runners; without that adjustment the value of a relief pitcher is not sufficiently related to his ERA.

Similarly, a relief pitcher should not get a win simply because he is the pitcher of record at the time his team takes the lead for good. If a starter pitches 7 shutout innings and is removed for a reliever with the game tied in the top of the 8th, the starter, not the reliever, should get the win if his team scores in the bottom of the 8th. Wins should be awarded by the official scorer, perhaps based on a set of mandatory requirements (pitchers always get the win in certain specified circumstances) alongside some more flexible guidance (stuff to consider when awarding wins in situations where none of the mandatory requirements apply).

"The 'prevent' defense I believe increases the chances of singles, but does not reduce the extra base probability enough to make up for the potential damage from the far more likely cluster of singles."

TomTerp:

I find your argument interesting but I really cannot agree with this point above. Of course the "prevent" defense greatly reduces the extra base probability. It almost eliminates it (except for HRs of course). Here are a couple of other things to consider:

1. As someone else said, the number of outs matter at great deal. You'll notice that with two outs and a runner at 1st or no one on base in any inning that a manager will always back up his OF unless there is a very weak hitter at the plate. It's the same idea. Make them get two more hits to score a run.

2. The score also matters a lot. The difference in the 9th inning is that giving up one run but not two (as the Nats did last night) still wins you the game. The finite nature of the 9th inning and knowing how many runs you have change defensive strategy. While it may cause heartburn for the fans, it's still the "by the book" thing to do.

3. This to me is the companion defensive argument to the sacrifice bunt argument. It's all about big innings v one run innings. The "prevent" defense makes sense if you are up by 2 runs or more in the 9th. I will agree that in a one run game, I'm not as big a fan of it, particularly with zero or one out.

Hope you can make it, Catcher50!

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BTW, I may show up for the Party. Depends on who drives.

re: 9/23 attendees. Don't forget the lurker who asked if he/she could come and hang out in the bushes watching us! LOL!

Yes, that was a riot! Might have been theraph?

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re: 9/23 attendees. Don't forget the lurker who asked if he/she could come and hang out in the bushes watching us! LOL!

Catcher50 sez "[Lopez not playing good SS] means that Zimm overplays 3rd (does this contribute to his errors?)."

I would say no. The majority of Zimmerman's errors this year have been throwing errors. And many of the throwing errors happen when he has time to set up and throw, rather than when he scoops up a ball in a hurry and has to make the throw quickly based purely on instinct. Presumably if he's ranging wide to grab balls that Lopez might have been able to field, these are going to be situations where he won't have time to set up and think about the throw - and given Zimm's pattern this year, hurried throws are less likely to result in a error than throws he has time to think about.

indeed, it was i says the lurker. two posts already? eegats.

Next year's realistic goal is .500. Acta will push for more, but this year's squad over performed to get within spitting distance of 75 wins. Guzman, FLop and Belli are a good combination for that goal, flexible, potentially tradable, good enough to press each other. We were just insanely lucky with the pitching. Adding a Colon or other proven commodity to take up the slack while Hill continues to emerge, Patterson comes back, or not, and we sort through the rest, makes a lot of sense.

I'm going to at least stop by, I hope, but so far I have invites to three tailgates on Sunday.

One is from the guy who makes the beer for the Vintage 50 brewpub in Leesburg.

It wouldn't be polite if I didn't at least say hello to him ("Why, yes, I'd love to try your latest, Bill -- oh, you brought ALL of them?"), would it?

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I've been trying to keep track of potential attendees via postings.

Earlier in the season, annandalenatsfan, Frank20, Geezer, Sect. 502, and Swanni had also expressed interest. Last but not least, we hope that our favorite scribe will stop by at some point.

Please come join us so that we can put faces to the monikers!
Posted by: natsfan1a | September 19, 2007 12:32 PM

#4, I agree with a number of your observations, regarding how different situations (1 run ahead vs. 2 runs ahead) can influence your thinking and strategy. Especially relevant might be the particular matchups - ie the batter you are facing, and the skills of your pitcher. An extra base risk might be extreme in certain cases. (like Chipper Jones facing Chad for the 3rd time in a series - ugh)

But I keep going back to the Mets stats I pulled, that 18% of at bats result in a single, vs. 6% in a double or triple (forget home runs, the defense doesn't matter). At 18% vs. 6% per at-bat, it is more likely you will surrender two singles (and equally likely 3 singles) in an inning than 1 double or triple, and this is assuming standard defenses. So with a runner on first, going into the prevent defense focuses on reducing the 6% chance, but has the consequence of improving the opponent's chances of getting two singles, which was more likely to start with.

This may be "by the book", but that old school book has been proved to be off the mark in a number of ways, and I remain skeptical of the strategy pending further corroboration.

I might invite myself to 502's tailgate.

Re: 9/23 festivities

I'd love to come to the tailgate. Unfortunately I have Sunday family obligations.

1) playing the outfield back with a two-run lead was the correct thing to do. you can second guess it all you want, but it was the right call (especially with two outs) in this instance. and it worked out just fine.

2) for anyone advocating the acquisition of bartolo colon, he's done, finished. he weighs about 300 pounds now, and has been on the dl most of the past two seasons. unless he's willing to play for a bargain basement contract, they should stay far away. it seems to me that the last time the expos/nationals picked him up, it cost them grady sizemore, brandon phillips, and cliff lee. that was too much then, and whatever he might demand on the open market would almost certainly be too much now.

Hey! The ESPN preview of tonight's game includes the following sentence:

"Meanwhile, a series with the last-place Nationals hasn't helped end New York's struggles."

How can ESPN get this wrong?

It seems to me the Colon comment was facetious...

I just saw this on NFA

"Alexei Ramirez
September 19th, 2007
Baseball America noted that MI/CF Alexei Ramirez, a Cuban defector who played in the 2006 World Baseball Classic, has selected Jamie Torres as his agent and is ready to come to MLB. Ramirez is reportedly 26-years old and has played CF for the Cuban National team in the WBC, SS for Pinar Del Rio in the Cuban National League, and also at 2B for the Cuban national team. From what I can find, he seems to most resemble Julio Lugo in terms of projected abilities.

If he can play center field, he seems to be an intriguing option for the Nationals this off-season. His salary demands would not seem to be at the level of the top tier CFs on the market (Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter, Aaron Rowand) but it definitely would be a risk on whether he would provide a solid return."

I think this would be a great move, they guy seems to have tons of flexibility (CF, SS & 2B, all positions of need), is the perfect age and most importantly wouldn't require giving up picks or prospects in return. I am curious about what kind of salary he would demand.

Also, since we have several dectors from the "commie" franchise on the roster, why not add an defector from a communist country?

Cuba Libre!!!

I'll be at least strolling through. I know my crew will want to get to RFK plenty early anyway.

Has anyone yet volunteered to bring nametags? I'd like to see everybody put at least their handle on there (and their name, optionally).

sorry, but i understood the comments of bob l. head and section 314 concerning bartolo colon to be serious. there were a few others, however, that were clearly humorous.

I think it would be fun to try and guess who's who.

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Has anyone yet volunteered to bring nametags

Well, I'll be the one with a Cubs-fan girlfriend with red, red hair, so I won't fool anyone. Also, I may be ranting about mildly facetiously about the Phillies or in sever earnestness about Phillies fans.

blueson comments:
"playing the outfield back with a two-run lead was the correct thing to do. you can second guess it all you want, but it was the right call (especially with two outs) in this instance. and it worked out just fine."

It worked out fine in that we won the game, but no would-be doubles were prevented, and they darn near pecked us to death before the bleeding stopped. In this instance, a standard defense would have been more effective. But why do you say that playing the prevent defense is the right thing to do (looking for a supporting argument here)?

And thanks for giving second-guessing permission, I was sweating that one.

Hey Barry, this is off topic, but can you get your crack WashPost IT staff to link to the Journal from inside every gamer (maybe from your byline). It's torture to have to thrice-click back to the top Nationals page and then wait for the rotating "Nationals Journal" link. I want to read all 3 Nationals pieces every day -- make it easier!!

I will aslo be absint a copy editor@!

For the record, I was not advocating acquiring Colon, merely pointing out that he was available and that he was a reclamation project.

Also, from the chat (still no Meat):

Barry Svrluga: Here's the Nationals' lineup tonight, before I can get it on the Journal:

Logan -- 8
Lopez -- 6
Zimmerma -- 5
Pena -- 7
Kearns -- 9
Belliard -- 4
Fick -- 3
Flores -- 2
Chico -- 1

#4: Sorry that you can't make it. Maybe we can pull together some sort of hot stove NJ get-together for the off-season. Our own winter meetings, if you will.

ihatewalks: Glad that you can stop by. Great minds think alike on the nametags (altho guessing could be fun, too, NatsNut). I was thinking of picking up some tags and asking that people fill them in with their monikers and first names at the event. Would you be willing to bring some tags and a marker or two, IHW?

Sect. 502, AKA social butterfly: Okay, we'll share you with the other groups. I suspect that Sect. 506 and others might like it if you shared some of the beer tailgate wealth... :)

Sect. 506, no worries re. miszing copee edditurz. We'll be unplugged and fancy-free at this event! Though it might be cool if we were wired somehow so as to communicate with members who can't attend. I think that you should re-create your awesome Phillies rants for us in person. Will be fun to meet your Cubbies girlfriend, too.

This is my first post, although I've been lurking all season, like a fly on the wall of Nats cyberspace. Since lurkers have been declared welcome, I'll come by the tailgate, bringing crab dip. (I don't think Peter stole sole rights to crustaceans, did he?)

Yahoo! Another lurker outed! And funny too. Now that wasn't so bad, was it?

Not to add fuel to the fire, but I agree with TomTerp about not using the "prevent" defense. I understand why managers use it, but I don't think it's completely effective. While the number of outs and score of the game are important factors, there is also one other thing to consider: who's coming to bat.

Last night, after Shawn Green got the single, Paul Lo Duca was coming up next. So far this year, Lo Duca has 87 singles, 16 doubles and one triple. He was 5 times more likely to single than hit an extra base hit. If Logan plays normal defense, Lo Duca is out and those of us watching the game wouldn't have needed to have our hearts re-started.

Sounds good, NatsFly (as in "on the wall"?)!

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This is my first post, although I've been lurking all season, like a fly on the wall of Nats cyberspace. Since lurkers have been declared welcome, I'll come by the tailgate, bringing crab dip. (I don't think Peter stole sole rights to crustaceans, did he?)

Oh, you already said that in your post. re. the wall. Duh.

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Sounds good, NatsFly (as in "on the wall"?)!

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This is my first post, although I've been lurking all season, like a fly on the wall of Nats cyberspace.

Of course, I meant "duh" that I didn't realize you'd explained the moniker in your post until after I'd posted to guess the meaning.

I'll be there with a bottle of Fat Bastard chardonnay.

Great, Juan-John!

WFAN 660 AM on the way home from the game credited JimBow for getting Pena as the key difference-maker in the Nats lineup that is now beating, instead of being swept by, the Mets.

I'm eager for Meat to come back and help Pena and drooling over the idea of Guzzie too. Maybe even start Church in Center...

I'm salivating over the return of Nick Johnson and his .400+ obp and .956 ops in '06.

Nick Johnson of '06 is never coming back, even if Nick Johnson of '08 returns. You don't sustain an injury that takes this long to heal without losing something permanently.

In relation to the prevent defense comments:
1. With 2 outs and up 2 runs, you gotta play the prevent, gang. And yes, i almost threw my glass at the TV when Cordero gave up the run.

2. So, any thoughts on how many Cordero saves were secured on a warning track or gap catch that resulted because of the prevent defense? I wouldn't be surprised if that list was long with all those long outs.

Finally, yes, I am laying low, admitting that I did NOT want WMP coming to DC and striking out a ton. BUT, I also acknowledge that I wanted WMP to prove me wrong!

506 your pessimism is noted.

I do think their could be some loss for NJ as a fielder, but I doubt it will have a major effect on his batting - though it might take a little while to get back up to speed.

I agree 506, 2006 was, in all likelihood, Nick Johnson's career year. Even if he does make it back and play regularly, he's much more likely to post something closer to his career numbers of .272/.395/.458. He's going to be older and slower and out of practice.

By the way, it's Nick's 29th birthday today (just noticed that while looking up his stats).

I'm off to the park, along with my symbolic broom!

Gonna enjoy 3 more games in section 317 (I got tix for $15) before these same seats become $300(!!!) next year! What a joke (but you do get meals and wi-fi in the "Club"). I'm curious how long that pricing structure remains...

I'm headed to the game too - last RFK game for me since I'll be home in STL this weekend.

Happy Birthday Nick Johnson, hope the rehab is going well in Sacramento.

Wish you were here...

ShawNatsFan,
I was against bringing WMP to DC before I saw the price tag. I feel the same way about Adam Dunn, If we could have gotten him for another broken pitcher and retred defender, why not?

I'm very hopeful that the WMP we've seen here this year can be with us all of next year and be that "big bopper" we need, I just hope JimBow can now lay off getting Dunn too - I love the power (80+ homers a year between Dunn and WMP in '08), but 300 strikeouts from the corner outfielders we can do without! Although I am warming to the concept of Kearns in Center Field.

New post is up. Sorry, haven't had a chance to read all this chatter.