Ballpark Update
I haven't done enough with this stuff, but some of you I'm sure will find it interesting. During the season, we had a regular, short feature in the Monday paper called "Ballpark Update," which was provided to me by Rick "Buck" Buckovich over at Clark/Hunt/Smoot.
Well, Buck sent out this link today. It's a new Web cam positioned atop the press box, and it shows all the progress down there. It's really a pretty amazing to watch all this. Grass is supposed to go in Nov. 1.
Also: I forgot to mention (and watch) that there's an episode on the Discovery Channel's series "Build it Bigger" surrounding the construction of Nationals Park. It will re-air at 10 a.m. Oct. 30 and 10 a.m. Nov. 20, according to this schedule. I haven't seen it, but I'm intrigued.
And Sheinin has lineups for you below, though as he'll tell you there, he's got plenty on his plate. ALCS discussion is probably best done off his entry.
By Barry Svrluga |
October 18, 2007; 5:25 PM ET
Previous: We Interrupt This Postseason... |
Next: Game 6, Tag-Team Style
Posted by: Greg | October 18, 2007 06:12 PM
Torre was given a contract offer they knew he would reject. I think this was an attempt to get rid of him without alienating the players with option on their contract.
I think that will backfire and you'll see 7-8 of the highest payroll players (including Andy Pettite and Alex Rodriguez) leave.
I don't think any of this will directly affect the Nats (though the Yanks might come looking for some Nats telent, namely Cordero, Rauch and or Ryan Church.
However, the chaos that will ensue from so many top FA suddenly flooding the market gives Trader Jim a great opportunity to make some steals, either in FA or via trades...
Posted by: estuartj | October 18, 2007 06:39 PM
Hey Barry/Dave,
Can you believe that Manny isn't even in the running for Manager of the Year in TYIB???? I'm a little behind I know, but I'm appalled and very disappointed. He's still my Manager of the Year!
Posted by: LKitz | October 18, 2007 07:40 PM
Build It Bigger was really interesting. The host actually goes up with the iron workers to install parts of the ballpark. Shows you how dangerous and complicated this work really is. Must see TV.
Posted by: Ashburn | October 18, 2007 08:08 PM
Missed the first 10-15 minutes of the show but what I saw was very cool. Makes me that much more excited about next year.
Question for the gallery. I've been a full season ticket holder since the beginning (section 427) and my first choice was the infield gallery (section 319 to be exact). Also requested the first row in that section. What are the chances of getting my first choice? I'm concerned about people in the lower bowl coming up for more affordable tix. Anyway, on the show last night it appeared that the host was sitting in (approx) section 319/320 and it looked really good.
I wrote the Nats fishing for some info and they said it would be 4-6 weeks before season ticket holders are notified so look for your seat assignments in late November / early December.
Posted by: loggie | October 18, 2007 08:16 PM
the build it bigger was awesome, a lot of stuff on the new stadium and segment on RFK being baseball/soccer and how they changed the field.
on another note is anyone else tired of hearing announcers slurp up umpires and referees who make horrible calls? just say they are wrong you have 10 video replays that show they are wrong just say it.
Posted by: love | October 18, 2007 09:30 PM
Manny's HR? Hard to tell. Looked like it cleared the yellow, but it bounced back. Whaddya think?
The park starting to look like a park.
Posted by: Annandale | October 18, 2007 10:50 PM
I'm interested in the Torre story, because I believe it's okay to know what is going on in some place other than your own town. Sometimes, I even read about exotic places like Iowa and even California. They're in different time zones!
And speaking of being in a different time zone, I guess we have to give credit where credit is due for Manny's 2 for 3, with a walk and an RBI night so far. Maybe being clueless does have its advantages.
Posted by: Section 506 (Before moving) | October 18, 2007 11:00 PM
$5 Million! $5 Million!! If I was offered $5 million to move to Bagdhad and fight King Kong, I would do it, because, if I lived, life would be significantly better. Turn down $5 million to be the toast of the town and do the job you love? I don't get it. Manny showed what an intelligent, energetic young manager can do. The Steinbrenners want some of that.
Posted by: flynnie | October 19, 2007 03:55 AM
There are some things, flynnie, that aren't worth the aggravation, $5 million or no. Especially when you already have more than a few millions in the bank.
George backed his FO into a corner when he shot his mouth off at the end of the ALDS. They tried to crawl out, not particularly elegantly, and got what they deserved.
It's ironic how the Yankees keep trying to portray themselves as the icon of classiness, and keep turning out to be anything but.
Posted by: Hendo | October 19, 2007 06:45 AM
1st, the new camera angle on the Clark Cam is awesome. It will be very cool to watch the interior take shape.
2nd, I admire Joe for turning down the $5 Million. I honestly believe it was the "1 year" part that did it and not the cut in pay. A one year deal essentially means he has to answer questions about whether or not he's returning in 2009 starting the day he signs. Given that he's had to put up with questions about his return since they lost the series in 2001, Hendo is right... some things just aren't worth the hassle. He's got plenty of $$$ in the bank. Go enjoy a year off and decide if you want to come back to Baseball in some capacity - perhaps for an organization that would appreciate you.
Posted by: MKevin | October 19, 2007 08:48 AM
Boz's column today is pretty good. I can't remember when I last said that. I thought in 2005 that Cleveland was going to blow by the ChiSox and make a serious run. Very well run organization. It's also interesting to see how the Rox changed their philosophy of pitching(Denny Neagle, Mike Hampton vs internal products). The humidor helps ;)
The one quibble - I can tolerate teams that draw poorly before they "make their run," but over the long run, I want to see teams that fill their park do the best. I hope both the fans in Cleveland and Colorado that wave towels and show up for the playoffs get back to packing their parks for the next 5 years while the young stars mature.
Oh, and as for national coverage vs. Nationals coverage - the Post has it about right. Sheinin doing the national beat, Barry doing the Nationals beat. I do want to see an occasional article about the D-Rays because I love baseball and I think Sheinin hits upon great angles for his coverage. And (kick me hard), getting a beat writer for the Os would not be a travesty, either, just for schadenfreude.
Posted by: jon | October 19, 2007 08:51 AM
"Oh, and as for national coverage vs. Nationals coverage - the Post has it about right. Sheinin doing the national beat, Barry doing the Nationals beat. I do want to see an occasional article about the D-Rays because I love baseball and I think Sheinin hits upon great angles for his coverage. And (kick me hard), getting a beat writer for the Os would not be a travesty, either, just for schadenfreude."
The word on the street today (see this from the City Paper site: http://www.washingtoncitypaper.com/blogs/citydesk/index.php/2007/10/18/the-slow-bleed-of-the-washington-post ) is that there will soon be even more retrenching at the Post, possibly another round of buyouts. Even though Sports is not mentioned in this aricle, one would have to think that it would be hit every bit as hard as the rest of the paper, if not harder. Given that, as well as comments from Emilio Garcia-Ruiz in the recent ombudsman piece, it would seem that there is little likelihood of any expansion of the Post's reach when it comes to covering baseball. Hopefully the powers that be there will make the wise choice, realize where their readers' interests largely lie, and concentrate their efforts toward providing exceptional coverage there, rather than diluting their product by becoming a jack of all trades and master of none.
And if the Post has any doubt as to where the interests of a majority of its readers lie, they can look at the statement of relative reader interest made in the ombudsman column (Nationals second only to the Redskins) as well as the way that comments on this journal basically dry up whenever the topic is anything but the Nationals. Clearly, in a time of retrenchment, there should be no room for an Orioles beat writer at the Post. Indeed, we'll probably be lucky if they can retain a full-time Nationals beat writer and a national MLB beat writer. If there's another buyout, my money would be on Boswell taking it and perhaps coming back under contract to write the odd column, a la Solomon. Hopefully those odd columns would be about the Nationals, not the Orioles, but with Boswell you never really know what you're gonna get from one day to the next, do you?
Posted by: Section 419 | October 19, 2007 10:10 AM
i think the angelos comparison earlier was accurate. people are too smart to fall for that "we made a fair offer, it was his choice" routine. yankees may suffer for a while going forward. each team carries the same amount of players. in this new age of prospecting money only makes so much a difference.
and just to chime in on other recent stuff. i hate tim mccarver and joe buck. i hate fox baseball. they rip manny but ignore lofton for arguing with beckett while the ball is still in the air. mccarver offers me nothing. he cannot even read the pitch count on the screen. and i'm pretty sure he corrected himself wrong more than he corrected himself right.
but listening to mccarver and buck be "disgusted" with manny is not what i need to hear. guy gets jammed and almost hits one out opposite field against cy young caliber pitcher against his old club in series clinching game for WS while driving in go ahead game winning rbi etc, etc, and this is the focus? someone must have got to them at the commercial break because when it came back all manny coverage was he's "so strong" and all positive jibberish.
great baseball is diminished by fox coverage every year.
just to clarify i'm a big fan of both manny and lofton. manny might be the best right handed hitter ever. interesting how the redsox may have the best left handed hitter also. (best righty plays left, best lefty plays right). ted williams was often derided for similar attitude, but nobody questioned his abilities at the plate. becket = wow.
go nats!
Posted by: longterm | October 19, 2007 10:19 AM
Were I Torre, it would be the "incentives" that made me walk. Honestly, after all the King George talk about win-or-be-fired, how insulting is it to be told that you will get a million more for each round of the playoff you hit? As if you don't want to go all the way and have to be bribed to do it.
Posted by: Section 506 (Before moving) | October 19, 2007 10:30 AM
i can't let it go. baseball is the one sport that hasn't been completely dumbed down yet. but Fox is trying their damndest. I would prefer MLB just run all their own games on their own network.
Posted by: longterm | October 19, 2007 10:32 AM
506, I'm with you on that. It's not about money as such, but money being used to denote a lack of respect. If you cut someone's base salary by a third and say in effect "you can make up what I took away from you if you don't suck" -- well, I'd walk in that circumstance too. Good for Joe.
Posted by: joebleux | October 19, 2007 10:46 AM
Department of Not Letting It Go:
The more baseball I see (and -- arghh! -- hear) on TV, the better I like baseball on radio. And the more I think about it, the more I wonder whether conventional TV coverage will just never work, no matter who the announcers are.
Maybe that's just the grumblings of a geezer, in which case you can push me into the corner with the radio and ignore me. (If a radio call and MLB GameDay could ever be synched up, I'd be set for life.) Still, I suspect I'm far from alone in my disenchantment.
Posted by: Hendo | October 19, 2007 10:46 AM
Don't worry longterm, baseball can't be dumbed down. I discovered that while trying to teach my Cubs-fan girlfriend (just culturally, remember, she doesn't actually follow baseball) just enough so I could watch the game in peace without being told it didn't make any sense.
Now she knows the intricacies of the Rule 5 draft (though infield fly is still beyond her). Even something as simple as balls and strikes is not simple at all. Foul-tip into the glove?
Posted by: Section 506 (Before moving) | October 19, 2007 10:55 AM
Do my eyes deceive me, or did Nick, JP and Ryan Wagner just come off the 60-day DL?
Posted by: Hendo | October 19, 2007 11:03 AM
Hendo, I saw that too. There must be a technical, procedural reason, right?
Posted by: NatsNut | October 19, 2007 11:29 AM
Well we know they have plenty of room on the 40man now.
Posted by: MKevin | October 19, 2007 11:48 AM
Joe Girardi for Yankees Manager! I'm for anyone who told Jeffrey Lorea to "shut the f--k up!" during a game when the home plate umpire had enough of Lorea's lame Mark Cuban imitation. Can't wait to see him interac with the Steinbrenners.
Posted by: flynnie | October 19, 2007 12:09 PM
At some point during the off-season you have to take everyone off the 60 day DL, so this is not an indication of their health, unfortunately.
Posted by: estuartj | October 19, 2007 12:34 PM
Manny is the Ubermann, to whom the laws of mere ordinary people do not apply. His indifference to his team's fate allows him to play without pressure, and thus hit more home runs than anyone in the history of baseball.
Posted by: Friedrich Nietzche | October 19, 2007 12:46 PM
Great gamer from Dave about Beckett, the Hairy Alpha Male, who did not even glance at the gorgeous anthem-singer, whom he used to "date." I remember when Beckett was with the Yankees and won the Worl;d Series in New York against the Yankees. When asked what it meant to him, he answered, "That I can go deer huntin' sooner."
Posted by: flynnie | October 19, 2007 12:54 PM
OOPS! Last post shoulda said, "I remember when Beckett was with the MARLINS and won the Worl;d Series in New York against the Yankees. When asked what it meant to him, he answered, "That I can go deer huntin' sooner." Just like Nietzche's shouldve said, "Manny is the Ubermann, to whom the laws of mere ordinary people do not apply. His indifference to his team's fate allows him to play without pressure, and thus hit more home runs than anyone in the history of POST-SEASON baseball."
Posted by: flynnie | October 19, 2007 12:57 PM
Ordinary insect! All who read me know that I am speaking of playoffs!
Posted by: Friedrich Nietzche | October 19, 2007 12:58 PM
When you're on the 60-day DL, you don't count against the 40-man roster, which gives the team an extra roster spot when someone isn't available for a long period. That all ends in the offseason, so those guys have to go back on the 40-man (or be released). Just more roster "housekeeping" -- that's why some other guys were dropped off the 40-man earlier.
Posted by: Cosmo | October 19, 2007 01:01 PM
Actually, flynnie, it would have not been inappropriate for Nietzsche to say that Manny has redefined what it means to hit a home run by his recognition of the complete lack of meaning in home runs post-Barry (Home Runs are dead, and Bonds has killed them).
Manny's are home runs, because he willed them to be so.
The ump last night might say something a little different...
Posted by: Section 506 (Before moving) | October 19, 2007 01:02 PM
Sorry to hear about the anticipated cutbacks at the post, but I suppose the web will be my source.
Oh, and in the realm of roster trivia, I saw a former catching prospect for the Blue Jays, Guillermo Quieroz, refused assignment by the Rangers and is a minor league free agent. At one time, he was the #2 catching prospect in the minors behind V. Martinez, but did not pan out. If you think Flores will spend a year in the minors, a Quieroz type would be a good back up to Schneider for a year. On the other hand, if you think Flores has shown enough, you bring in a veteran back up and move Schneider to a veteran oriented team looking for a new starting catcher (or experienced back up) or one that has young pitching.
Posted by: jon | October 19, 2007 01:08 PM
I'm feeling really uncertain about Flores. It might be nice to have him and Schneid do a 65-35 split already. I'm thinking day games and Hill and Bergman/(Patterson).
As for moving him to a team with young pitchers that need help with development: how about the Washington Nationals? Chico, Lannan, and the fifth-man (assuming Patterson is not back) could use a superior defensive catcher that has a fantastic mind for the game.
Posted by: Section 506 (Before moving) | October 19, 2007 01:24 PM
Addendum: By uncertain, I mean uncertain as to what to do with him. If you'll recall, I used to be a huge advocate of starting in AAA.
Posted by: Section 506 (Before moving) | October 19, 2007 01:39 PM
i think catcher is the one position where we have current and future roles solidified. pretty much everywhere else needs more attention. those two make a good combo.
i'm still concerned about 1b. no self respecting organization can be comfortable with a nick johnson/meat hook/tony batista/rober fick rotation. the moment a stud 1b is available we need to pounce. and i don't mean adam dunn. i want a justin morneau or mark texiera. ugh, this team still has a long ways to go.
Posted by: longterm | October 19, 2007 01:50 PM
1B is a relatively easy position to fill. Not that the Nats should punt, but rather than agonize about it, I would assume either Nick or da Meat will be available and turn my attention to more pressing matters, like making sure there's a healthy rotation and nurturing our future stud OFs.
Posted by: Hendo | October 19, 2007 02:27 PM
Oh, and finding some guys with enough plate discipline to maintain a respectable OBP. That's a big reason why the Nats scored so few runs this season. (Non-slugging bats are the other big reason. If Guzie and Nick can stay healthy, the Nats will have made strides toward resolving both problems.)
Posted by: Hendo | October 19, 2007 02:33 PM
i agree. obp is sorely lacking. and pitching of course will always be the most pressing need. but i do see help on the way. i just don't want us to be like past braves teams and relying on the next ryan klesko. crime dog was nice for the times i guess but now i want my first baseman to be a cornerstone. i think looking back at this year, pitching wasn't the major missing component. not that i'd bet the farm on a repeat of that either but offense makes the playoffs.
funny how offensive stats remain relatively consistent year to year but not day to day. whereas you rely on pitching day to day but not exactly year to year.
Posted by: longterm | October 19, 2007 03:23 PM
i feel like today is a holiday and nobody is at work but me.
Posted by: longterm | October 19, 2007 03:24 PM
longterm, I think that's an interesting observation about stats, but I would add an important qualification: the PERCEPTION of "offensive stats remain relatively consistent year to year but not day to day. whereas you rely on pitching day to day but not exactly year to year"
I think in reality, batters can vary year to year and day to day as much as pitchers can, but I think because of the nature of their jobs, it is less visible. I'm thinking of Guzman and Glavine here.
Posted by: Section 506 (Before moving) | October 19, 2007 03:34 PM
For the person who requested to be in the first row of Sec. 319, be careful what you ask for. There is a rather large railing in front of those rows, so you are might be spending a lot of money for an obstructed view. When picking my seats, I called the Nats tix people and asked about the railing they hemmed and hawed for while and then said "all the seats are good," which made me very suspicious.
Posted by: obstructed view | October 19, 2007 03:52 PM
RE: OBP - one of the reasons to hope we get a full year out of Nick is precisely that. To me, its fun to watch guys with plate discipline work counts and pounce, which is another amazing thing about M-Ramirez in this series. Nick was a Youk type #2 hitter for NYY, and I kind of prefer that model to the fly who does not get on type. My gut tells me that Guzman reverts to career norms in terms of OBP next year, so I don't think he is a real good OBP / top of the order guy, and he's gone next year, too (hard as that is to believe).
I agree we are in good position for catching next year. What I'm suggesting is that maybe Schneider is near the peak in his value, that Flores is more likely to be the catcher by '09 and beyond, and that you could possibly get some useful prospects back if you moved Schneider. If you think Schneider is too valuable for our current pitcher development, then, as .506 suggests, send Flores down to AA/AAA to play 110 games and work with the arms coming up, and perhaps take a stab at a Quiroz (not Quieroz) and see if you hit gold again (and make Schneider even more tradeable). Oh, and I just throw that name out as an example of a type that might be worth a flyer and because his name came across the wires.
Posted by: jon | October 19, 2007 04:01 PM
506 - You mean Manny's 396 foot single?
Posted by: flynnie | October 19, 2007 04:20 PM
Longterm, or anybody, how do your prevent a 100 loss season in the new park if the horseshoe drops out of the bullpen's butt?
Posted by: shorterm | October 19, 2007 04:25 PM
I think that the world of FA is changed, Cleveland, Colorado and Arizona being the prime examples - but hardly the only ones...
For every position you have to look to the farm, trade or sign FA only to fill a whole in your system of if a prospect isn't coming along in time for your best shot at a championship.
With that your 2010 Washington Nationals;
CA - Flores
1B - Marrero
2B - Stephen King
SS - "Smiley" Gonzales
3B - Zimmerman
LF - Pena
CF - Maxwell
RF - Burgess
SP - Willems
SP - Detwiler
SP - J. Zimmermann
SP - Gibson
SP - Hill
Who of those won't pane out?
Posted by: estuartj | October 19, 2007 04:32 PM
shorterm:
1. I don't think luck had that much to do with it. The Nats' relief corps was good, but ERAs of 3-and-change to 5-and-change are about what you expect from a major league bullpen.
2. Cordero's horseshoe was conspicuously absent on several occasions in 2007, as were Rauch's and others' at various times. They yet lived to fight on other days. We're not talking Danys Baez and Jorge Julio here.
3. Given some run support, the bullpen will be under somewhat less pressure than in 2007.
Posted by: Hendo | October 19, 2007 04:39 PM
Not a bad mark to aim at, estuartj.
But you don't see Mike Daniel in the mix? Or Bergmann or Lannan?
(And my pet project, harped on tirelessly by me in this Journal: with all due respect to Lenny Harris, I sure like me some Nick Johnson as hitting coach.)
Posted by: Hendo | October 19, 2007 04:44 PM
Hendo, it will be a huge plus for the bullpen if the starters could average at least 6 full inning in '08.
Imagine how much better Ayala, Rivera, Rauch and Cordero would be if you only saw them 50-60 games a year each instead of 70+?
Witha little more stability and a little luck injury wise and I don't think that is too much of a stretch.
Posted by: estuartj | October 19, 2007 04:44 PM
I think Daniels is on the roster in '10, but not starting.
I think Bergmann and Lannan either get shipped out of move to the bullpen as better personel come up.
Posted by: estuartj | October 19, 2007 04:49 PM
"Given some run support" - Hendo - what makes you think that you can count on this from the worst hitting team in baseball? Who in that roster besides The Yule Log hit over 300? Looks like lots of heartbreak next season in the new park with no more long outs to count on. And let's not even think about Cordero with shorter fences.
Posted by: shorterm | October 19, 2007 04:55 PM
Interesting, estuartb. Could Lannan be the left-handed Ayala?
And let's not forget Chris Schroder, whom I would like to see inserted into more high-leverage situations starting in '08.
In fact, add Schroder and a lefty specialist to Ayala, Rivera, Rauch and Cordero, and that looks like a major-league bullpen.
Posted by: Hendo | October 19, 2007 04:55 PM
Schroeder is iffy for all parks not in Denver. He looked like he needed to be sent dowm by season's end.
Posted by: shorterm | October 19, 2007 05:00 PM
Conclusion: shorterm did not watch a single Nats game all year long.
Fact: Schroder was a stud at the end of the year, after a relatively uncertain beginning.
Posted by: | October 19, 2007 05:14 PM
shorterm... memory? He had a great year
Posted by: Section 506 (Before moving) | October 19, 2007 05:16 PM
Nice... shorterm memory loss.
Posted by: faNATic | October 19, 2007 05:19 PM
Does this mean that their luck does not hold out, or what? I ask because I'm interested in idioms and I'm not familiar with that one. It does paint a vivid picture, though.
---
if the horseshoe drops out of the bullpen's butt?
Posted by: natsfan1a | October 19, 2007 05:21 PM
Vivid is one word for the picture that paints... although theoretically, there would have to be multiple horseshoes involved.
Can't say that I'd heard that one before either, although it wasn't incomprehensible once I got over the sticker shock.
Luck not holding out seems to be an appropriate euphemism, though, 1a.
Posted by: faNATic | October 19, 2007 05:24 PM
Looking grim:
On-base percentage is a great statistic because it tells you something important, and in a clear language: at what rate did this player reach base? It doesn't tell you how far he reached base (second base? third? home?), but only whether he did or did not.
Slugging percentage is another great statistic because it tells you something important, and in a clear language: how many bases did the batter gain for himself per at-bat? It doesn't consider walks as either a positive or negative event (it simply strips them away as if they don't exist). It also tries to establish the importance of the single and HR by weighting the HR four times as much as the single.
The 2007 Nats are 25 out of 30 teams in hitting, and 29 out of 30 ion the more important run-producing category of slugging.
Their OBP is .325. Slugging is .390. The only team worse in slugging was the Giants at .390.
Posted by: shorterm | October 19, 2007 05:33 PM
I meant Giants at .387. Reminds me of when Whitey Herzog managed the Rangers and said that they were only 3 players away from the World Series: Babe Ruth, Sandy Koufax and Whitey Ford.
Posted by: shorterm | October 19, 2007 05:37 PM
Surprise! Two of the teams that played in two of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks had some of the worst slugging and obp numbers.
For lack of any reasonable explanation for this phenomenon, I have to agree with shorterm and call these numbers what they are: an absolute shocker.
Posted by: faNATic | October 19, 2007 05:44 PM
"The top-producing skipper was now said to have the golden horseshoe up his ass. Since gaining possession of the horseshoe myself, I had preferred to think of it as under my pillow." Linda Greenlaw, The Hungry Ocean: A Swordboat Captain's Journey. Capt. Greenlaw was played (not very well) by Mary Elizabeth Mastrantonio in the film The Perfect Storm. As in, "The perfect storm is heading for OxBlue Park unless the pitchers keep that horseshoe up their ass."
Posted by: shorterm | October 19, 2007 05:49 PM
Chris Schroder: 2007 ERA 6.35; Last 30 days played ERA 7.71. Yeah, he was on fire, terrific! I don't know what I was thinking.
Posted by: shorterm | October 19, 2007 06:13 PM
Knock yourself out, Nataholics, but next year your team is in trouble. Let me be the 1st to predict 100+ losses w/o the spacious RFK fences to mask pitching so deficient that it can't last. Why the fall in season ticket-holders from 2005? Because this team won't be anywhere near 54-29 at the All Star break like it was in 2005, and people won't pay all that money to see a loser in America.
Posted by: | October 19, 2007 06:18 PM
That last was me.
Posted by: Cassandra, Prophet of Doom | October 19, 2007 06:18 PM
Oh good, the doomand gloom 100+ losses talk has started already.
How did the crow from this season taste?
If we can amange to use 6-7 starting pitchers instead of 13 and produce more runs with those less Yellowstone-esque park dimentions, not to mention having Guz and NJ back, plus WMP for a whole year, etc, etc, etc then I thing 81-81 is a lot more likely than 62-100
Posted by: estuartj | October 19, 2007 06:52 PM
True.
Sticker shock -- I like it! :)
---
although theoretically, there would have to be multiple horseshoes involved.
Can't say that I'd heard that one before either, although it wasn't incomprehensible once I got over the sticker shock.
Luck not holding out seems to be an appropriate euphemism, though, 1a.
Posted by: natsfan1a | October 19, 2007 07:11 PM
Nice try, but we all know that it's just Buster Olney in drag.
---
That last was me.
Posted by: Cassandra, Prophet of Doom
Posted by: natsfan1a | October 19, 2007 07:13 PM
Nats '05 .506 at home, .459 away
Nats '06 .506 at home, .370 away
Nats '07 .494 at home, .407 away
Posted by: Splitsville | October 19, 2007 08:26 PM
estuartj - For fun, I'll bite. How old will Smiley be by 2010? 20? That's a bit quick of a projection. Not saying he will not pan out, just saying 2010 might be quick.
For all - A more fundamental point should be that prospects do not all pan out. You need multiple prospects at each position to build from prospects. Take Cleveland, for example. They had both Phillips and Peralta at short, Broussard, Hafner, Garko, (plus another guy whose name escapes me at Kinston/ Akron 2 years ago) at 1st, and too many OF prospects to name.
The Nats still have to thicken their talent pool and be willing to trade veterans to do so, not just draft. Again, with Cleveland, Hafner, Cabrera, Sizemore, and Gutierez were all acquired as minor leaguers for major league talent (Colon, Broussard, Einar Diaz). If a Pronk can be acquired for Einar Diaz from a team with a need for a catcher and a block at 1st base, then we can't get too attached to any of the veterans on this roster. Returning to a favorite topic, is Cordero Heathcliff Slocumb? That is, yes he has gotten saves, but can you get both Jason Varitek and Derek Lowe for him?
Posted by: jon | October 19, 2007 08:36 PM
Can I please play with you please?
"[Clayton] said he would be open to a return to the Washington Nationals..."
Posted by: Royce Clayton | October 19, 2007 08:37 PM
Michael Aubrey is the mystery 1st baseman. And by Tek and Lowe, I mean high minor league prospects, not established major league guys, for Cordero. Can we find a team that plays in a fly ball friendly park for him?
Posted by: jon | October 19, 2007 09:31 PM
Career: Home 21, away 18
RFK 16
Dolphin 5
Stade Olympique 4
Turner 3
Minute Maid 3
1 each in
Shea
Petco
Citizens Bank
Busch
Wrigley
Great Amer
Coors
EnH Bithorn
Posted by: Cordero home runs by park | October 19, 2007 11:36 PM
Catching up here, I'm having trouble thinking that having a horseshoe up your ass is somehow a good thing. If I had a horseshoe up my ass, even a golden one, I think I would regard getting rid of it as the good thing. So there's that.
Chris Schroder: Did have a September ERA of 7.71, per shorterm, but that was indeed a shorterm result as his season ERA was 3.18. He appeared in 37 games and gave up zero earned runs in 26 of those, and just one earned run in 7 more games. He gave up two homers all year. Shorterm is Schroder's ex-wife.
Posted by: Bob L. Head | October 20, 2007 08:27 AM
To the prophet of doom:
I don't understand all this hand wringing about the pitching and the new ball park. By all reports the park will be "fair" meaning it won't favor either hitting or pitching. The pitching stats might get a little worse, but the hitting stats will improve. It ought to be a wash. As far as the 100 loss thing goes, I don't see how any NL team loses that many games. Unless there is a significant shift in FA talent from the AL to the NL in the off season, there won't be any great NL teams again next year. It's hard to have a 100 loss team in a league when there are no 100 win teams.
My prophet of doom statement is more long term. Looking at that 2010 line up is depressing. The Nats have no prospects who have produced past Potomac. They don't seem to have anyone who is a budding Albert Pujols - someone who is an offensive monster. Until we see that, they are a long way from a championship team.
Posted by: #4 | October 20, 2007 09:00 AM
Indeed. I did find this visual aid helpful in sussing out the meaning (warning: link may prove offensive to some).
http://yippee-online.com/2007/09/03/a-horseshoe-up-your-ass/
---
Catching up here, I'm having trouble thinking that having a horseshoe up your ass is somehow a good thing. If I had a horseshoe up my ass, even a golden one, I think I would regard getting rid of it as the good thing. So there's that.
Posted by: natsfan1a | October 20, 2007 09:34 AM
#4's prophecy of doom is more substantive than Cassandra's, but I'm still not buying it.
Pitching is well on its way to being set. The Nats drafted amazingly this season. Arms from this year's draft have every potential to be part of a solid staff in 2010-2011.
A home-grown pitching corps leaves some checkbook room for picking up FA hitters. This is where the front office will have the chance to distinguish itself, and where it must produce. Remember that two expected high-end producers on the 2008 squad, Guzie and Nick, are free agents. Whether either will be around in 2009 is problematic. That, to me, is the critical issue, because 2009 is the season at the end of which most of the pieces for a pennant run must be in place if the 2010s aren't to start off dismally.
It's easy to prophesy doom, but it's more fun and rewarding -- if harder work at first -- to identify specific challenges and then to craft solutions to the challenges (even if most of us are crafting from the comfort of the hot stove). And the number-one challenge over the next three seasons -- right ahead of continued smart drafting, IMO -- will be to operate shrewdly in the FA market.
Is this Nats ownership group and front office up to that challenge? That's the question that the doomsayers (and optimists) should be debating.
Posted by: Hendo | October 20, 2007 10:10 AM
"Is this Nats ownership group and front office up to that (making shrewd FA decisions) challenge? That's the question that the doomsayers (and optimists) should be debating."
Hendo brings up this interesting point. I would phrase it a bit differently. Like in all personnel moves, mistakes will be made unless you are extremely lucky. Trying to build the offense through free agency will inevitably mean that large sums of money will be wasted. Draft mistakes are much cheaper. Therefore my question is: will the DC market be such that the Nats will be a high payroll team? If so, they can afford these mistakes. If they are more of a mid level market payroll organization, fandom should be wary of building the offense through free agency. The D'Backs and Rockies are great examples small to mid market organizations that have used FA very little.
Posted by: #4 | October 20, 2007 12:24 PM
It's so much fun to rehash old ground on Chad.
ERA home v road 2007 - 3.00 v 3.82
HR/9 home 2007 - 0.86; road 1.09 (~27% difference).
HR/9 Home 2006 - 1.35; Road - 1.91 (41% increase in rate).
He's a fly ball pitcher, although less so this year, whose strikeout rates per 9 drops on the road (perhaps because he needs to be more careful outside RFK).
Posted by: Contra Home runs by park | October 20, 2007 03:08 PM
Okay, I'm usually very forgiving of Kasten
and his people when it comes to my season tickets. I don't think I've once joined in the various gripes about whatever the gripe of the day is. I wasn't upset when I got my packet the week before opening day. I'm not too worked up about where I'm going to sit in the new park. I'm not even worked up about the 400% price increase. I'm even cheering him on about the parking situation, knowing he's going to have a hard time of it. I'm still that grateful to have baseball in my town.
But I have a serious bone to pick about an email I just got. It says people can come down to ESPN Zone on Tuesday evening, put NEW deposits down for FIRST TIME season tickets on the new park AND GET A FREAKIN' MP3 PLAYER???!!!! The same MP3 player I was promised, several times, and NEVER GOT for the 2007 season tickets I paid for!!!!! And where's the freakin' MP3 player for my deposit I paid IN JUNE for 2008 Stan? Huh? I never expected an MP3 player. But YOU TOLD ME I would get one. Several times. Never saw it. And I never said a word until now.
You've got some nerve, Stan Kasten. But I don't care about the freakin' MP3 player. You know what you can do with my MP3 player, Stan.
IT'S THE PRINCIPAL OF IT THAT HAS ME FURIOUS.
Posted by: NatsNut | October 20, 2007 04:41 PM
New post up, guys and gals.
Posted by: natsfan1a | October 20, 2007 05:37 PM
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I saw the show - it was sweet. I couldn't help but notice that it was offered in HD, hence the first time the Nats Park was broadcast in HD. Hopefully not the last either!