If they do not tender a contract, the Nats can still resign any of these players as free agents, I assume. MLB Trade Rumors guessed which other teams' players might not be tencered contracts. I would look for the Nats to pick up more players from other teams after this happens.

I am disappointed that Jerry Crasnick rated the Nats' lineup as the 3rd worst on ESPN, but then again, moving up to third in run production would be an improvement,however slight. I hope the team surprises again to make fools of people making such dire predictions.

Our NL East rivals continue to lose some of their best talent:

"Aaron Rowand agreed to a $60 million, five-year contract with the Giants on Wednesday, giving the club a center fielder without having to trade pitchers Matt Cain or Tim Lincecum."

Despite what ESPN says, it does not feel like our lineup is the worst in the division anymore.

Buh-bye, Flippie?

Although I think it might be a bad move, I think you might be right, J-J. Lopez might not return.

Shouldn't John Patterson be on that list?

Mark Prior could be non-tendered by the Cubs. Anyone want to take that chance?

What about me?

RHP Luis Ayala
RHP Chad Cordero
INF Felipe Lopez
RHP Jon Rauch
RHP Tim Redding
RHP Ryan Wagner

I would keep everyone but Lopez. He clearly didn't want to be here last year -- or, at least, he didn't appear to want to be a baseball player. His head was elsewhere.

Wagner is the only one of those at risk for being non-tendered.

Would sign Prior in a heartbeat.

Micah Bowie was already removed from the 40-man ... right?

"Would sign Prior in a heartbeat."

For name appeal or for upside? (Either or both may be attractive, and a good reason to consider signing him.)

Upside, Hendo. I think Prior would be worth the gamble for a year contract, even if it topped out at $3-4 million. If he's healthy, he would be the best pitcher we have.

I'm all about signing Prior--we already probably get wholesale rates from James Andrews anyway, so why not?

*Crosses fingers hoping for an FLop non-tender*

Of course, if it were between signing Prior and Livo, I would choose Livo.

i'd say both upside (more important) and name recognition. now, it really depends on what the offers to him are. we shouldn't get stupid with it. but the team could use at least one name acquisition, even if it is a "risk/reward" guy like prior.

and remember, he's only 27, so if he can avoid the fluky injuries, he could potentially be a good #2 for at least a few years (or a substitute #1 on this team, for now).

livo gives you innings for 08, but nothing really beyond that. he was even part of the contingent of 06 players who had the "bad clubhouse influence" label on him.

prior could give you nothing, or something special. either way, he'd give you a shot at 3+ years of something.

i'd rather sign people with an eye on 09/10 than just 08. unless there's nobody available to fill a long-term gap and we need someone right now (a la loduca).

The Washington Nationals today agreed to terms on 2008 contacts with right-handed pitchers Luis Ayala, John Patterson and Ryan Wagner, thus avoiding salary arbitration. Nationals Vice President and General Manager Jim Bowden made the announcement.

By agreeing to terms with the three righthanders, the Nationals now have only five players (infielder Felipe Lopez and right-handed pitchers Jesus Colome, Chad Cordero, Jon Rauch and Tim Redding) that remain arbitration eligible.

The Washington Nationals are expected to non-tender outfielder Nook Logan and left-handed pitcher Mike O'Connor. Nationals Vice President and General Manager Jim Bowden made the announcement.

Someone will pick up Nook quickly. Despite his occasional brain freezes, his speed and defense can help a contender off the bench.

If you could get Prior for $4 million, you should do it. He's going to be $8-10.

Even I wouldn't spend $8-10 million of Ted Lerner's money for Prior.

I'm so glad the team has decided to give up on the ridiculous experiment with Mike O'Connor. He was good for, like, two games before everyone figured out how to take him long. I seem to remember someone with the team basically saying he had serious developmental problems in regards to, you know, pitching.

I wouldn't mind seeing them take a gamble on Prior for one year, but I agree that $8-$10 million is too much to spend for a guy who hasn't proven he can stay healthy for a full season. On the other hand, $4 million probably isn't enough. You'd have to at least give him Lo Duca money -- at least $5 million. Maybe as much as $6 million. I don't think I'd go any higher than that, though.

Swanni:

Please accept my apologies. I had to re-read your last post about a half dozen times to get it right... I was expecting you to say that they SHOULD spend that.

The marketplace is not rational when it comes to pitching. Someone will either overspend for Prior, or offer multiple years, which is the same as over-spending. Of course, the Cubs could offer arbitration, which would also be overspending... and that the market is not rational is the reason that Bowden has done so well with retread pitchers. The ones that people have given up on are probably no worse than the ones that are hot properties (for middle-of-the-pack players)... they just have some history that makes them un-signable.

I am so misunderstood. :)

A serious question:

Can anyone name a pitcher who had arm problems for three or four years at a young age and then went on to have a productive career?

I'd feel better about spending any amount of money if there were some examples to point to. I cannot think of any.

swanni, how we love ya!

I meant to quote this in my last posting:

I am so misunderstood. :)

Kerry Wood?

he re-signed a 1-yr deal with the Cubs already

Chad Durbin of the Tigers was non-tendered. Look for him in our rotation, potentially. Slightly wining record last year, sub-5 ERA

I'm under the impression that Prior won't be ready till May. So calculate that into your budget value.

I still think Lopez is an asset that you don't give away. Tender him, sign him, and then either trade or keep him. He is a relatively young switch hitter coming off a career low season. Odds are he bounces back with the bat. Keep him at second and his defense is a plus instead of a minus.

Durbin would be an inexpensive, decent back-of-the-rotation guy. I can see him being a good fit.

I agree, NatBisquit. Lopez is too valuable -- as trade bait, if nothing else -- to just let him walk in free agency. The Nats really can't afford to just let players of his caliber go, so I'd expect they'll put something together.

My view, returning after some time in India:

Don't sell low on Felipe. He could (should?) bounce back. Then we have the option of keeping him or dealing him in July. Nobody else in the pipeline at middle IF. Wait.

Prior has to be a one-year deal with some kind of option/mutual option based on innings/performance. No way he should get $8 million or even $4 million (unless it's incentive-based and he meets the objectives). Say, $2 million base plus $1m for 100 innings, an additional $2m for 150 innings and another $2m for 200 innings.

Holy Smokes!

Check this article out about Prior's situation:

http://www.dailyherald.com/story/?id=93666

No wonder he's hurt!

(the article also hints at why Prior will want multiple years)

Adam Everett is a middle infielder who our man Chris Needham from CP recommends if non-tendered. Now that Felipe is back in the fold, we can hope for his improved success. However, I still would love a solid straight-out glove in the middle.

I am way too interested in this team. I get excited over the scrubs we can pick from in mid-December. I would beg that someone help me out of this, but football just can't hold my attention outside of Sundays.

Let's say, swanni, that Prior and Livo were both available for $5M. Would you pick them both up at that price?

Luis Tiant? Frank Tanana? Came back, but I don't think they were down 3 -4 years

Well done,Jon. Tiant and Tannana are interesting and perhaps instructive examples. Like Prior they both started their careers as hard Throwers and had good success. I think each pitched longer than Prior though before they got hurt. Anyway, after their injuries, they both reinvented themselves as soft throwing deception artists. Tiant was sort of like El Duque, and Tannana was a bit like Jamie Moyer. Maybe that's what Prior needs to learn how to do. Somehow though I doubt he has it in him. I think either he comes back as a flame thrower, which history tells me is doubtful, or he blows his arm out again and is done.

Thanks for the movies natsfan1a.

i wouldnt listen to crasnick, he is lucky if he isnt ESPN's third worst MLB analyst

Props to Barry for the F. Scott Fitzgerald reference.

the rich suite holders are different from you and me...

from mlbtraderumors.com:

===
* The Royals cut the cord on Emil Brown. He turns 33 soon; he hit an ugly .257/.300/.347 in 2007. Brown earned $3.45MM in '07.
* The Tigers non-tendered Chad Durbin, toss him into the free agent pool. Guess those trade talks with the Bucs didn't work out.
* The Twins have let go Jason Tyner.
* The Nats have cut bait with Nook Logan and LHP Michael O'Connor.
* The Dodgers wave goodbye to Mark Hendrickson.
* The White Sox have non-tendered Andy Gonzalez and LHP Heath Phillips. Joe Crede sticks with the Pale Hose for now.
* Adam Everett has lost his job with the Astros. It'd be kind of funny if the Orioles signed him.
* Per RotoWorld, the Angels have non-tendered Dallas McPherson. He's full of potential, but he's never come through. He's only 27, though, so he could still catch on somewhere. Unless, RotoWorld notes, he has an agreement in place with the Angels.
* The Braves have non-tendered Willie Harris, though he had already been DFA'd.

==

i don't imagine everett would sign with the nats with lopez and guzman here, but he'd be an interesting pickup.

mcpherson might be interesting if 3B wasn't the one position we have covered (wonder if the Os will go after him, along w/everett).

durban looks interesting.

nobody else on the list there looks intriguing to me.

You're welcome, NatsNut. Netflix has a decent selection of baseball documentaries as well as the feature films. I especially liked The Bases Are Loaded, where Monte Irvin returns to Cuba and connects with former teammate Connie Marrero, and Spaceman: A Baseball Odyssey, where Bill Lee travels to Cuba.

---

Thanks for the movies natsfan1a.

Also from mlbtraderumors.com: "36 year-old first baseman Alex Cabrera is a sleeper power threat among free agents. The former Rockie, Cub, and Diamondback has been mashing in Japan since 2001. The Nationals don't have any room for him but want him anyway. Rosenthal says A.L. clubs are looking at him as a DH candidate, also. Cabrera hit .295/.377/.512 with 27 HR in 441 ABs in Japan in 2007."

Great...another corner infielder. I don't think we need one of those. Young, Johnson (maybe), Boone...How many more first basemen do we need? Can he pitch? If not, JimBo needs to keep looking. But I will say that his numbers do sound intriguing. Hmm...

Andy MacPhail is a talented baseball executive. By all accounts the O's got two good pitching prospects and a (pay attention now) left-handed hitting outfielder who they may now flip in another trade to another team. The O's are apparently looking to acquire a SS. It is also rumored that the O's and Cubs are ready to pull the trigger on a deal for Brian Roberts.

It could be fun to speculate about how the Nats could work into this deal. Let's say the Nats get Luke Scott from the O's and one of several available middle infielders (Fontenot?) from the Cubs. The O's get Felipe Lopez and a reliever. The Cubs get Roberts. Now I like a scenario where the Nats get Roberts better but that seems less likely.

Fontenot is a potential leadoff hitter. Scott a left handed outfielder for those days when you need one.

I have a hard time convincing myself, but ...

Wigi, thanks for the Prior link. I used to play ball with the reporter who wrote that.
******************
Holy Smokes!
Check this article out about Prior's situation:
www.dailyherald.com/story/?id=93666
No wonder he's hurt! (the article also hints at why Prior will want multiple years)
Posted by: Wigi | December 12, 2007 07:55 PM

Mark Prior, Josh Towers, Adam Everett, Chad Durbin are all reasons to consider opening up the wallet to improve the team for the new season. Are the Lerners ready to make the move? These are not big free agents who would bust the bank. They just could bolster the pitching staff and improve infield defense.

Hendo,
$10 million combined for Livo and Prior would be a no-brainer. The Nats payroll would still be well under $50 million.

I suppose Mark Hendrickson is in the mix for our pitching staff, as well. The Dodgers let him go.

The other virtual fish wrap did a little analysis on the Nats slary structure last night concluding with:

"So what's the grand total? If the season opened today, the Nats' payroll would be roughly $54 million. Does that rank among baseball's leaders? No, not even close. But it would be a sizeable increase from last year's Opening Day payroll, which was a paltry $37 million. It also would be more than the Nats spent in their first season in the District ($48 million on Opening Day 2005). Only the Opening Day 2006 payroll ($63 million) was larger.

What does it all mean? Well, the Nats may still have a ways to go to catch the biggest spenders in the game. But they certainly seem to be showing a willingness to increase payroll as need be, and it's a safe assumption that the number will continue to rise over the next few seasons."

And Ladson posted a note that said a "baseball source" indicated the Nats would pursue Willie Harris.

i mentioned harris before when he was DFAd. LH hitter, has played all OF positions as well as 2B and a tiny bit of SS.

johnny estrada and miguel olivo are out there. adding spice to the catcher situation...

i'd prefer josh towers over livan. i'm sure nobody is counting on it but patterson could really make things easier on everybody if he becomes anything close to his 2005 form.

The city is studying plans to build a skyway (as in gondolas) over the Anacostia from Poplar Point to the Nats Park. You have got to be kidding. I suggested over a year ago that they build a pedestrian bridge from a GINORMOUS parking lot on Poplar Point. This would mean easy access to 295, a 600m walk to the stadium's first base line, and development on both sides of the river. This skyway had to come from the member from Ward 8.

hmm, I'd rather take a water taxi, I think.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/09/11/AR2007091101988_pf.html

I still don't get why you would keep Langerhans and non-tender Nook Logan. Even with all the superstitious "breaks the wrong way" claptrap (warning! I am being facetious, mocking my own stats-dependent analysis style, so re-lax), you've got to admit that he is better than Langerhans

The Post (Metro, B1) shows the "skyway" as an "aerial tram to the ballpark," and as part of one of four proposals for development of the site being considered by Fenty's office. This is not happening any time soon. Another proposal involves water taxis. Adding some parking over here to serve the new development, the soccer stadium and the new ballpark would seem to make sense, perhaps a pedestrian walkway could be tacked on to the existing S. Capitol Street bridge.

Just because you non-tender, does not mean you woun't invite the player to camp. You have to non-tender to get them off the 40 man roster, but concievably the Nats could turn around and offer Nook a minor league contract.

official MLB list...
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071212&content_id=2324311&vkey=hotstove2007&fext=.jsp

Does Langerhans have a minor league contract?

he has a split contrace, on that pays him $500k if he ends up on the ML roster and that pays him $300k if he's in the minors.

Nice little link to the Hardball Times catching stats. http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/?view=catching&league_filter[]=2

For those of you who want to compare Schneider, Lo Duca, and Olivo catching skills, conveniently the default innings sort for 2007 has them in a row (they all caught (##5 - 7 in innings caught). Caught Stealing % - Schneider and Olivo - 28%, Lo Duca 19%. Stolen base against / game - Lo Duca is about .20 higher than the others. Wild Pitch and Passed Ball / game - Lo Duca .240, Schnieder .370, Olivo .610. Staff ERA - Lo Duca 4.13, Schneider 4.79, Olivo 5.04. Finally, assists - Olivo 64, Schneider 53, Lo Duca 34.

I will guess that a fair amount of the ERA difference is the quality of who is on the mound. To some extent, perhaps the passed ball and wild pitch numbers are also tied to the control of the staffs, and the willingness / ability of the pitchers to hold runners would influence the stolen base stats. Again, at Capital Punishment, Chris Needham suggests that Lo Duca's control of the base runners will get worse with the National staff as he loses pitchers who control the running game.

Olivo has pretty good power, but, in his 2 seasons with 400+ ABs, has been horrid at getting on base (.287 & .262). THT's projections are for that to improve to .295 and to have an OPS of .726, or right about what Lo Duca has done since 2003 (.732 per Barry's article). I'm not skilled enough to break down the defensive stats, but he appears to be somewhere between Schneider and Lo Duca. He's 29 in July. He might be someone to bring in if we want to let Flores catch every day in AA or AAA.

bring in to split time with Lo Duca.

"Does Langerhans have a minor league contract?"

IIRC, he got a major league/minor league contract. One amount if he makes the team, a lesser amount if he ends up in the minors.

As to why anyone would want Langerhans over Logan, in one way it's like asking if they'd prefer this worthless piece of crap over that worthless piece of crap. Might as well just hold your nose, close your eyes, reach out and grab one. But if comparisons must be made, I'd say Langerhans is marginally better defensively, he has a miniscule amount of pop at the plate whereas Logan has none (Langerhans had a couple of homers, including a grand slam), and Langerhans I believe is younger. Also Langerhans doesn't have that totally lost look on his face every time he comes out on the field like Logan does.

It may appear that I am sort of dithering, as we go into a new park but, it seems to me that LoDuca is probably closer to the average ML catcher than Schneider. Schneider has some super abilities, but he is not average. He, IMO, is a much better defensive catcher and has been a much below average offensive catcher.

LoDuca will give us a benchmark, in the new park, to evaluate whether we can sacrifice offense for defense, or vice versa.

Yes, I know that this follows many of my earlier notes that say to wait and hang in to see what GEICO/FBR/Mars park plays like, but so far, no one has said anything to dissuade me from that position.

"I will guess that a fair amount of the ERA difference is the quality of who is on the mound."

You'd guess right. As documented a few years ago in "Baseball Between the Numbers," there's little evidence that any major league catcher has much influence over the ERAs of his pitchers. (Unearned runs are another matter, which is why Doug Mirabelli will have a job as long as his knees hold out and Tim Wakefield throws knuckleballs.)

Let's wait until after 2pm before we offer Prior anything.

Well done,Jon. Tiant and Tannana are interesting and perhaps instructive examples. Like Prior they both started their careers as hard Throwers and had good success. I think each pitched longer than Prior though before they got hurt. Anyway, after their injuries, they both reinvented themselves as soft throwing deception artists. Tiant was sort of like El Duque, and Tannana was a bit like Jamie Moyer. Maybe that's what Prior needs to learn how to do. Somehow though I doubt he has it in him. I think either he comes back as a flame thrower, which history tells me is doubtful, or he blows his arm out again and is done.

Clemens is reportedly in the Mitchell report. I am shocked, shocked!

Well done,Jon. Tiant and Tannana are interesting and perhaps instructive examples. Like Prior they both started their careers as hard Throwers and had good success. I think each pitched longer than Prior though before they got hurt. Anyway, after their injuries, they both reinvented themselves as soft throwing deception artists. Tiant was sort of like El Duque, and Tannana was a bit like Jamie Moyer. Maybe that's what Prior needs to learn how to do. Somehow though I doubt he has it in him. I think either he comes back as a flame thrower, which history tells me is doubtful, or he blows his arm out again and is done.

Arghh!!!

I hate blackberrys

Sorry for the double post, something from yesterday no less.

Just a little game...

Any predictions on the Mitchell Report names?

I think Clemens is a given.

Andruw Jones, I've long predicted
Tejada, I'm sure

Chipper Jones

Almost every RH set up man and middle reliever in baseball from 1995 to 2004.

Mariano Rivera
Brady Anderson
Sandy Alomar Jr.
Marcus Giles
Brian Giles
Ivan Rodriquez
Paul O'Neill
Gabe Kapler

What about Maddux and Glavine?

No and no.
____________________________

What about Maddux and Glavine?

Posted by: Section 506 (Before moving) | December 13, 2007 10:47 AM

Any current Nats in the report? I'd say probably not. As for former Nats, we all know Guillen will probably show up, and I wouldn't be surprised to see one or two random people you wouldn't have expected, like Castillo or Wilkerson.

Oh, and maybe Livo, with whom you all seem to be so enamored. He's like 52 years old (don't believe the listed age!) and there's no way you throw that many innings year in and year out without a little something to get you through the pain...

Easy ones:

Barry Bonds
Gary Sheffield
Jose Guillen
Jason Grimsley
David Segui
Rafael Palmeiro
Mike Cameron

"Mariano Rivera
Brady Anderson
Sandy Alomar Jr.
Marcus Giles
Brian Giles
Ivan Rodriquez
Paul O'Neill
Gabe Kapler"

Also Gabe Kaplan. ("Welcome Back Kotter" for you who are too young to understand this reference.) Something has to account for that hair.

Vinny Barbarino
Horshak

Kevin Brown
Randy Johnson?
Pedro Martinez?

Boy that would make the Pedro-Jose feud that much better! 'Roid raged with a chip on their shoulders!

I have seen a partial list. The only National on the list is Aaron Boone.

Barry? Why no post chat for today? Is there one scheduled tomorrow for after the Mitchell presser?

As for the non-tenders, make an offer to Prior. $6M? Fine - it's not my money.

And Akinori Otsuka was non-tendered by the Rangers. In 4 years in MLB, he has a 2.44 ERA, he'd be an asset in the bullpen - he also has closer experince saving 32 for the Rangers in '06.

Supposedly here is the list (and yes, Prior is on it as are a few ex-Nats). Of course, this all unconfirmed until 2 pm:
Brady Anderson, Manny Alexander, Rick Ankiel, Jeff Bagwell, Barry Bonds, Aaron Boone, Rafaeil Bettancourt, Bret Boone, Milton Bradley, David Bell, Dante Bichette, Albert Belle, Paul Byrd, Wil Cordero, Ken Caminiti, Mike Cameron, Ramon Castro, Jose and Ozzie Canseco, Roger Clemens, Paxton Crawford, Wilson Delgado, Lenny Dykstra, Johnny Damon, Carl Everett, Kyle Farnsoworth, Ryan Franklin, Troy Glaus, Rich Garces, Jason Grimsley, Troy Glaus, Juan Gonzalez, Eric Gagne, Nomar Garciaparra, Jason Giambi, Jeremy Giambi, Jose Guillen, Jay Gibbons, Juan Gonzalez, Clay Hensley, Jerry Hairston, Felix Heredia, Jr., Darren Holmes, Wally Joyner, Darryl Kile, Matt Lawton, Raul Mondesi, Mark McGwire, Guillermo Mota, Robert Machado, Damian Moss, Abraham Nunez, Trot Nixon, Jose Offerman, Andy Pettitte, Mark Prior, Neifi Perez, Rafael Palmiero, Albert Pujols, Brian Roberts, Juan Rincon, John Rocker, Pudge Rodriguez, Sammy Sosa, Scott Schoenweiis, David Segui, Alex Sanchez, Gary Sheffield, Miguel Tejada, Julian Tavarez,Fernando Tatis, Maurice Vaughn, IJason Varitek, Ismael Valdez, Matt Williams and Kerry Wood

And current Nat Aaron Boone too. Should have mentioned him. I wonder if Bob Boone gave his boys the juice.

another philosophical question for you all:

if PEDs were not illegal and they were used, why is it such a big deal? anabolics, were illegal in the U.S. but not the other stuff. so if its not illegal, and the game has no rules against it, what is the purpose of throwing players under the bus after the fact? that does not accomplish anything in my mind. if the players used after the testing began, then thats another thing entirely.

do i agree with steroids? no, it sucks. but thats not the question at hand.

i agree. this whole thing stinks. glad to see clemens in there though. about time that was brought up...

new post

Thanks for this, Jon.
Question to consider: CS/SBA vs. PB/WP
Obviously these are pitcher-dependent stats to a significant degree, and not necessarily proportionately so (a given pitcher could be terrible at holding runners close, but with very good control, or few 59' curve balls, and thus few PB/WPs). That said, it looks like Lo Duca is a full pitch per game better than Schneider was on keeping the ball in front of him, and thereby not allowing a runner to advance. It seems to me that should mitigate his worse Stolen Base Against significantly.

*******
For those of you who want to compare Schneider, Lo Duca, and Olivo catching skills, conveniently the default innings sort for 2007 has them in a row (5-6-7 in innings caught).
Caught Stealing % - Schneider and Olivo - 28%, Lo Duca 19%.
Stolen base against/game - Lo Duca is about .20 higher than the others.
Wild Pitch and Passed Ball/game - Lo Duca .240, Schnieder .370, Olivo .610....
Posted by: jon | December 13, 2007 09:55 AM

cevans - is it 1 pitch per game or .13 pitches per game? The latter works out to about 20 per 162 games. If the latter is true, then that is about how many extra stolen bases Lo Duca gave up when he was with the Mets. However, there is some suspicion that the SB number will go up when he works with this staff. And it does make you worry a bit about Olivo.

Tanana and Tiant - I do think they had pitched more seasons in the majors before getting hurt. Don't know the ages.

You see what happens when I stop the PEDs.
Of course you are right, it's about 20/year.
And I agree about Olivo.
But it occurs to me that raw numbers would be more accurate, in this case, than percentages. Might a catcher throwing out fewer runners because only the really good ones run on him have a lower CS percentage? Conversely, (more likely in the instant case) if everybody runs on him, because they can, his percentage number might actually hides some damage done?

********
cevans - is it 1 pitch per game or .13 pitches per game? The latter works out to about 20 per 162 games. If the latter is true, then that is about how many extra stolen bases Lo Duca gave up when he was with the Mets. However, there is some suspicion that the SB number will go up when he works with this staff. And it does make you worry a bit about Olivo.

Posted by: jon | December 13, 2007 01:58 PM