How does everyone feel?

I don't know about everyone, but for me, does he need help packing for Harrisburg? It can only help.

Also, Harrisburg would be so much better than Columbus. AA ball is so much better than AAA. AA is where you find true talent and the future of organizations. AAA is just pretty much a holding pen for guys on the 40-man who aren't in the Bigs - the International League should just be renamed the Rehab League or the Alternate League.

Granted, there are reasons why Jim and Stan have the jobs they do and why I have the job I do; however, just my $.02 is that Jesus in AAA would be of minimal benefit while he could really get a step-up in AA by working with the arms he'll be with in a few years on S. Capitol Street.

How do I feel? A little sad, but I guess I understand what's going on. While it'd be fun to project Flores as a wunderkind who can just step right up at the MLB level for 140 games a year, that wouldn't be fair either to him or to the organization.

Flores probably should spend time both at double-A and triple-A. At double-A, he can hone his skills against higher quality competition, as Corey notes; but at triple-A he may well gain benefit from the experience, and perhaps wisdom, of the veterans there.

See you when you and the Sens come to Bowie, kiddo.

Re the Lo Duca signing, I reiterate what I wrote on earlier posts. This goes to show that JimBow didn't have a backup plan for such a situation. He had to know that something like Lo Duca's injury could have occurred at any time and you have to either have veteran catching depth in your or-ga-ni-zation or a nearly major league-ready catcher in the minors. JimBow likes to make the big splash with his personnel moves, but sweating the details is also a big part of his job. Also, the Nats probably could have gotten Estrada on a one-year deal for a lot less than $5 million.

WARNING: Plan Loyalist is Near

I don't understand what is wrong with stockpiling talent. Get what you can get, when you can get it. I mean the deeper roster of personnel available the FO has the more chance somebody comes calling at the deadline or the more options they have to make a call to someone. Would I have liked them to sign some stud youngsters this offseason, sure. Realistically though, I'll never fault them for acquiring talent for minimal cost. Now when they start getting people just to get them no matter what the price tag, I'll be a little more hesitant to write that several thousand dollar check to them each year....I hope we have a little more faith in Teddy than our friends to the North have in Pete.

I don't think this shows a lack of backup plan at all. In fact this seems like an excellent backup plan. Signing Estrada now -- as opposed to December -- makes sense. Another month for him to prove his health. Another month for his asking price to come down. Toronto just signed Barajas last week making Estrada just that more available. Damien Miller has indicated he might retire. Bowden said back in December he wasn't done. What backup plan should we have expected to be put in place before now??? It's still January. Bowden is probably still looking at trades too.

Just updated the above post. Source tells me Estrada physical is Thursday.

I have to agree with NatBisquit. I think there are enough veteran catchers out there that the back-up plan is/was to sign one of these guys if the need arose. Well, that's what they are doing.

With Flores, I think he goes to AA to catch everyday. If/when LoDuca and Estrada (or Nieves or other veteran) go on the DL, Flores comes up and catches part or full time for a couple weeks. I'd guess it would happen at least for 2-3 15-21 day stays in the bigs this season, so Flores gets to play most days and sees time in the majors as well.

It's like gin rummy, except the cards keep changing value unpredictably, but generally down, every time you pick one up.

They're better off at catcher now than this time last year, with more possible upside and not much increased risk.

Its a smart move, in fact we probably should have signed Estrada over LoDuca to begin with. Now we can potentially trade LoDuca in July, and platoon Estrada and Flores in the second half until Flores takes over in 2009. Smart move.

You can count me as one who hopes that Jesus at least gets a chance to compete to make the major league roster. I know it would be better for him to play every game, but I love the kid. I want to see him at the new park.

Personally I wouldn't be surprised if he outperformed everybody at spring training.

I feel that the middle of our minor league system just got a little more interesting to pay attention to. I expect Potomac and Harrisburg to have better years, as if H-burg could have done any worse.

I'm biased: Schneider was my favorite player. I think trading him away was a mistake.

I think he was working well with Flores, I think they were on track to provide a nice balance to each other's careers: as Flores ramped up, Schneider wound down over the next three years.

But no: we trade Schneider for LoDuca who is like Schneider but without the superfast cannon-arm.

Then LoDuca gets hurt. Nobody could have predicted that, it can happen to our starting catcher no matter who it is.

But that puts Flores in a situation where he can either step up and start the season as the starting catcher at the big-league level or he can go down to AAA and do the same.

Sure, we're going to need another seasoned catcher to cover for LoDuca's injury, and sure Flores needs a lot more ABs this year than last, but let's keep Flores with the big club for at least a few weeks. If we're going to use up one of our (five?) opportunities to send him down, why not do it three or four weeks into the season rather than at the beginning?

Did anyone see the CNBC show (opposite the state of the union) on Bob Kraft and the business side of the Pats (and why am I mentioning it on a Nats blog)? They discussed how in the 2000-2001 offseason they signed 17 veteran free agents for something like $2.75 million guaranteed money, total, or less than most mid-level free agents get in that sport. This also got them out of a salary cap problem ($10 million over). Among the guys they picked were Mike Vrabel. They had comments from other organizations on how revolutionary and brilliant the approach was.

This strikes me as a transferable approach for MLB, although MLB has more guaranteed contracts. It is essentially what the Nats did with the 37 or so pitchers in camp last year, and it looks like it may be replicating itself for several other positions (other than middle infiled and starting pitching). The Cotas and Moellers and Estradas don't cost a mint and allows them not to rush Flores. The two way contracts are also consistent with this approach. The "overstock.com" comment for the outfield (and 1st) is not a bad thing.

With starting pitching, I don't think this year's market allowed for bargain hunting, although as long as Livan, Lohse, etc... overestimated their market value, it would not surprise me if they go to camp with someone on much cheaper contracts than were talked about in December.

I am a big Flores fan, but he needs more time in the minors. I like this move for Estrada, although I am always worried about getting a player the Braves gave up on (see Langerhans). They usually don't dump the good ones. ALL HAIL THE PLAN

I don't think you lose an opportunity to send Flores down to the minors if he starts the season in the minors. He can't be sent down if he's already down, can he?

"was Mike Vrabel" or "were Mike Vrabel and several other starters," but not "were Mike Vrabel."

Jon wins the grammar rodeo, Congrats Putz

Actually, we traded Schneider (and Church) for Milledge. We picked up LoDuca as a FA. And I would make that move every time.

Also, while LoDuca is inferior to Schneider defensively, he is superior to him offensively, which is something this team sorely needed.

-------------------------
But no: we trade Schneider for LoDuca who is like Schneider but without the superfast cannon-arm.

Then LoDuca gets hurt. Nobody could have predicted that, it can happen to our starting catcher no matter who it is.

Posted by: i hate walks | January 29, 2008 03:42 PM
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... as much as I'd love to see Jesus blossom in the bigs (like J. Bench and others did, as someone else mentioned earlier), I think it makes infinitely good sense to have him develop in whatever location necessary so that he comes along with the Nats' young gun pitchers. Then when they are ready, all can come up together.

... so can we rely on a couple of good knees out of four, one arm out of two, and a bat between them to see us through the year?

There are so few catchers in the Nationals upper ranks Flores should be able to catch every day at Columbus. Clippard, Balester, Lannan, Hanrahan and some of the Nationals pitchers who do not make the opening day rotation will be at Columbus, so Flores will get plenty of work with guys who will soon pitch at the big league level. Detwiler and Zimmerman will come through there as well, so I am not sure that having him at Harrisburg makes more sense.

Flores will come into camp with a chance to win a spot, but I have to agree with the plan to have him play everyday in AA with the young arms he will be catching in the future. And if trading Lo Duca at the deadline makes sense, you bring him up to back up Estrada.

And the Estrada signing isn't a desperation move because of Lo Duca's injury. Do you think that negotiations like this can get turned on that quickly? No, I'll bet Jimmy Bo was working on this before Lo Duca got hurt.

The Mets and Twins have a agreed to trade Johan Santana...now they just have to work out a contract extension.

Can't wait to see this guy pitch against the Nats for years to come. Aren't we 1-0 against him lifetime? ;)

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/2008-01-29-twins-mets-santana_N.htm

Sorry, can't bother with the Tin Yurl

i hate walks: Schneiderman was one of, if not may favorite Nat, too. But the combo of Lo Duca/Estrada is gonna hit at least 50 points higher this year (maybe 80) and drive in 30+ more runs. oh, and Church was expendable and the Nats got a potential future all-star in Milledge. absolute no-brainer of a deal & FA signing, i'm sorry to say.

It seems that the Mets have landed Johan Santana, knocking their minor league system down a few notches, but leaving us defenseless 3 times a year unless we bring up Levale Speigner (I still thought that joke several posts ago was pretty clever).

The people they are getting were ranked 3, 4, 5 and 6 in the Mets' system last year, but of course, Lastings Milledge was ranked #1 in their system the year before.

If we were talking about any other team (about whom we didn't have such passion) we would look at Lo Duca and Estrada as a 50th percentile catching pair. Not great, not bad. Defensively? A little weak, but both are veterans and have experience on winning teams. Hitting? A little above average, for catchers. Speed? haha, that's funny. The point is... they COULD be the catchers on a championship team that was strong everywhere else.

When you compare them to Schneider and Flores, you are giving up something on defense, but gaining on offense. Schneider had nowhere to go but down, defensively, and I would be surprised if he hit more than .250 this year... and we still have Flores.

We're ahead of the game at catcher... way ahead... and for the first time in Nats history, we have a more-or-less household name in the minors in Flores... probably about as close to a sure thing as you get in the minors.

i'm not sure being ranked 3,4,5 in the mets system is the same as being ranked 7,8,9 in the yanks/sox system. the twins took it in the shorts in this deal because they got greedy in december.

Carlos Gomez and pitchers Phil Humber, Deolis Guerra and Kevin Mulvey. and how does that compare with the supposed earlier offerings from the yanks/sox that they spurned in december?

like hughes, melky cabrera, and a couple of prospects? Lester, Crisp, Masterson, and a minor leaguer?

According to Baseball America, the players rank thusly in the Mets system:

2. Deolis Guerra
3. Carlos Gomez
4. Kevin Mulvey
7. Phillip Humber

Mulvey was listed for best slider in the group, Humber has the best curveball, and Gerra's changeup was the best in the Mets farm system. Gomez is considered very athletic, and a good defensive outfielder. He missed nearly sixty games with a broken hand last year.

Humber received a $3,000,000 signing bonus in 2004, second-highest in club history. He and Mulvey appear to be the most MLB-ready of the pitchers. With Torii Hunter gone, will Gomez get an honest shot in Spring Training?

Gomez is the 60th-ranked prospect, Humber is 73rd, according to Baseball America. The Mets avoided handing over their two top-25 prospects, Mike Pelfrey and Fernando Martinez.

I have no idea where the Mets stand in terms of the strength of their farm system, but it certainly looks like the Twins, two quote 231, "took it in the shorts."

I saw Santana strike out 19 against Texas last year. I'll leave it at that.

Praise the Lord. Finally the Santana trade rumors will be over. Now if the O's can pull the trigger on Beddard perhaps the rest of the league can finish signing the remaining free agents. This should end the Mets mild interest in Livan Hernandez. Will Livo be willing to sign at a bargain rate with the Nats? He's no longer the same pitcher that came to DC in 2005 with the Nats, but he is an innings eater who is sure to give maximum effort for 30 starts per year.

I meant "to."

Be gentle.

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but it certainly looks like the Twins, two quote 231, "took it in the shorts."

Did Charlie Slowes ever nail down a contract? Did I miss the announcement?

I've not seen anything on that Juan-John.

---

Did Charlie Slowes ever nail down a contract? Did I miss the announcement?

As a Fan of the Plan I'm happy to see the Mets gut their farm system for a pitcher who will be 29 when this season starts.

Look, Santana's been lights-out, and I certainly don't wish him any harm. But look at what happened to Mark Mulder, or to Barry Zito, when similar moves were made by the Cards and Giants, respectively.

Also, the rest of the Mets' staff includes fragile Pedro, John Maine (who has a total of 1.5 decent seasons under his belt and had an MRI on his shoulder after the season), the mercurial Oliver Perez (due for a down year; check out his reliable up and down stats) and El Duque, who is at least 38 and pretty far removed from his heydey in the Last Days of the Yankee Dynasty.

Sure, a 1-2 of a healthy Pedro and Santana is potentially scary over the near term, but health is always a question and who knows what this deal will look like when The Plan comes together and we have our A-Team (OK that should date me pretty well for some of you).

so Putz, who's your set up if Sherrill is traded?

Hendo-

Did you get your Baseball Prospectus book yet? I still need to wait a few weeks for the Baseball America Prospects book. I want to enjoy the more positive assessment of the team's future in great detail.

Also, why is everyone talking so much about Santana? Didn't anybody notice that we signed Johnny Freakin' Estrada today?

It was fun to say that, if nonsensical.

Santana to the Mets....status quo in baseball, the rich get richer...if he stays healthy, the other teams in the NL East will be playing for nothing but 2nd place...

Estrada move is ok - definitely not something a cheap org would do

17md: Publication date for the Baseball Prospectus book is February 18. I'm hoping the PECOTA numbers will be out this week, though.

I'm also looking forward to a more hopeful assessment of the State of the Organization from the BP folks.

i don't see mulder and zito being comparable to santana. both had more serious question marks with their health and declining ability. while santana didn't have his best year in 07, he was still pretty dominant. neither zito or mulder were dominant when they were signed. zito, in particular, had a lot of questions.

So I suppose January-February for the folks at Baseball Prospectus must be like tax season for accountants, huh? :-)

"So I suppose January-February for the folks at Baseball Prospectus must be like tax season for accountants, huh? :-)"

Possibly worse, since -- although no details are yet available -- they will probably immediately go out and do a signing tour, including in DC. (Which is where I hope to pick up my copy of the book. Getting to chat with the BP folks is always entertaining.)

Looks like the Nats will play the Georgetown Hoyas baseball team in February in Viera:

http://guhoyas.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl/spec-rel/012908aac.html

J-J:

Now that is the kind of move that ties you closer to the home town. They should set up an exhibition with George Mason next year.

From the City Paper, which has not been particularly sparing of criticism of the Post, comes this valentine to Barry by Andrew Beaujon:

http://tinyurl.com/2vnlge

Nice find, Hendo. Thanks for sharing the City Paper piece.

I think that sending Flores to AA or AAA or whatever, is the right thing to do. Lo Duca & Estrada can man the catchers box, as long as they are healthy, while Jesus gets valuable experience in the batters box. This makes sense in that as others have stated, he'll be gaining experience catching the up and comers of the future rotation. JimBo and Stan will one day be verified as having done this thing the right way. Naturally, injuries can sidetrack things, but the big picture is still in focus and attainable. I have faith in the plan. Thank goodness our owner isn't spelled Angelos. As long as Teddy boy and his protege Mark let the baseball people make the baseball decisions, things should just move right along. zippity do da, zippity day, oh what a beautiful day.

By the way... there is a small group of Nationals Journal readers that have formed a community in Yahoo! Groups. It is there mostly as a way to post questions or comments that one might not think appropriate for the entire NJ audience.

http://groups.yahoo.com/planetnj

Estrada or Lo Duca only one of them will be on the team come trading deadline. Jimbow is working to get more young arms for 09

I had questioned Jim Bowden's decision to sign Paul Lo Duca as the team's short-term catcher, indicating my preference for Johnny Estrada.

Gee, now we get 'em both.

Though Brian Schnedier was a good guy and a good defensive catcher, I have no doubt that the Lo Duca / Estrada tandem will net the Nationals far more runs on offense than they allow of defense (as compared to Brian Schnedier)

The two could easily combine to hit .275-15-60. Based on the how the Nationals are currently constituted, the only soft bat was at catcher. Now, -- assuming there aren't too many down years -- the Nats could have a very potent offense. How good?

SS - Lopez: .260-12-50 or
Guzman: .250-5-35
CF - Milledge: .275-22-80
3B - Zimmerman: .285-28-110
LF - Pena .270-30-90
1B - Johnson .280-17-75 or
Young .280-15-75
RF - Kearns .170-24-80
2B - Belliard: .280-12-55
C - LoDuca/Estrada: .275-15-60

None of those numbers are unreasonable assuming these guys play up to their potential. That said, a couple of guys will probably play poorly, and one or two might play much better.

Either way, man, I'm looking forward to spring training!

I always liked Estrada. I don't necessarily agree with the anonymous poster above about Braves castoffs. If you look at their recent history with catchers, I think Estrada left because they had McCann.

They have had a ridiculously good line of new catchers coming up over the past few years. There was Javy Lopez (former All Star I think), Johnny Estrada (former beast), John McCann (future All-Star?) and until Teixera, Jarrod Saltamacchia (projected beast).

I mean wow. Estrada might not give us defense, but I think he will help our offense more than Paullie.

Anyone recall a Rule 5 guy that was kept in the majors then sent to AA (instead of AAA) the following season? I'm drawing a blank but positive it's happened many, many times.

The Santana trade is really interesting if he signs the extension. $20-25 million locked up for 5-7 years for a 29 year old player some experts said looked injured towards the end of last year. I'm curious if there are recent reports on Santana's health or if the Twins GM backed himself into a corner and the Mets offer was the best one available. The Yanks and Sox seemed to both offer packages of prospects with higher ceilings/closer to the majors.

Guerra seems like the prospect with the highest ceiling, but farthest away from the majors. Mulvey, Humber and Gomez were all more highly rated going into 2007 than 2008.

If Angelos or the mysterious "Jones degenerative hip" issue block the Orioles/Mariners trade for Bedard, I'd be an angry (stupid) Orioles fan. The package proposed for Bedard seems much more desirable than that for Santana, whether it's near term (with Jones in center and Sherrill in the pen) or long term (with Tillman & Butler/other prospects).

and who is thinking of politics tonight, NattyDelite?

--------------

John McCann (future All-Star?)

I wouldn't call Estrada a Braves castoff (maybe a Mets or Brewers castoff). He was dealt from the Braves (McCann was called up that year) to the DBacks for two young/promising arms then shipped the following season to the Brewers for Doug Davis in what I remember to be a six player deal. I don't think Estrada will ever be confused with Gary Carter but as a backup and LoDuca Insurance Policy (LIP), hes definitely servicable.

Just realized I'll be out of town for the ESPN home opener. Anybody know of another way to get one of those refrigerator-magnet schedules (last year they gave 'em out on Opening Day only, if memory serves).

Beltway Boy-

Good stuff. I certainly hope that Nick and Lastings do better than that, at the very least.

Schneider must be enjoying NYC now...

another good move by FO. these guys know how to dot their i's and cross their t's.

i love how we are just filling the pipeline at every position. longterm the real concern is still gonna be finding offense out of the middle infield. everything else looks like it's falling into place.

it's very possible we get some more draft picks this coming year as compensation too. or we just can spin off the backups after we sort out the value. exciting times here. it's finally coming together. we'll be a better team this year and better again next year.

long live manny.

I had a few minutes to ponder this, so I'll share:

The Nats play the NL East Teams (18 games each for a total 72 games) The projected rotations for those teams (subject to change) are listed below and have 9 LHP and 11 RHP. (We might face Santana as few as 2 and as many as 4 times). So in division 45% LHP. The Nat's have a predominately RH lineup (particularly in the OF).

Mets: Santana(LHP), P.Martinez, O.Hernandez, Maine, O.Perez (LHP)
Phillies: Hammel (LHP), Myers, Kendrick, Moyer(LHP), Eaton
Marlins: Olsen (LHP), Mitre, Hendrickson (LHP), Vanderhurk, Nolasco
Braves: Smoltz, Hudson, Glavine (LHP), James (LHP, Hampton (LHP)

All this means to me is that the Nats are well postiioned to face what I think is a higher than normal ratio of LHP in the NL East. Probably there will be some matchup problems against RHP. Estrada joins Lopez, Young, and Guzman as switch hitters.

Beltway Boy -- like your projected lineup/stats, but do you really think Kearns is only going to hit .170?! I'm sure that must have been a typo.

The Twins HAD to send Santana to an NL team. There's no way they would ever want to face him if he were on the Sox or Yanks, especially if it were in the playoffs.

If Kearns hit .170 and still managed 24 HR and 80 RBI, he'd pretty much be the definition of an all-or-nothing hitter.

If he got 420 ABs, which is not an altogether unreasonable estimate given the potential for some rotation of the outfielders this season, he'd be hitting a homerun once every 3 hits. Unfortunately, that also be about once every 17.647 at-bats. Since he's only getting 2 other hits in those 17.647 at-bats, however, that leaves a whole lot of wasted outs, something our team desperately needs to improve upon this season.

If you check out the webcam, they're testing the HD board. Looks like they've got it tuned to the smithsonian channel. According to jdland, they're going to show the superbowl on it to the workers this sunday.

My bet is the .170 for Kearns was a typo...probably should have been .270

I'm sure it was, SC Nats Fan, it just struck me as an interesting what-if scenario. That'd make for a Kearns that acted more like a mini-Adam Dunn or Frank Thomas than the Austin we've seen the past two seasons.

Let's hope there are no DC government workers involved in the testing of the video board. Otherwise, there might be porn showing up there when they think no one's looking.

419+1...I trust you'll keep a keen eye on that board and update us if that happens...yikes.

that would be a world-record largest HD porn display.

Beltway Boy:

Just a reminder... Guzman was hitting over .300 last year when he got hurt. I know a lot of us are gun-shy with him, but he was showing us the reason that Bowden signed him... I'd give him at least .270...

wigi, to be fair, all of guz's numbers were by far career bests (or on pace for them). the closest he ever came to them was in 2001, his best year by far. other than that 2001 season, he never had an OPS above 693. i wouldn't predict he'll match those numbers and figure he'll be closer to his career average (.263/.302/.378/.680), so maybe 270 with 25 2Bs, 5 3Bs, 6HRs, and 35-45 RBIs is a realistic number if he has a good year. and that's if he plays 140 games.

231: I don't think Guzman's career-best numbers in '07 were flukes. Remember that he got his eyes and his shoulder fixed during his downtime; improvement was to be expected.

My guess is that he still has the time and talent to better his career averages.

Yes the eye surgery was said to greatly improve his hitting, however he has dealt with injuries since joining the Nats and that sort of string tends to be a sign of aging, not of a fountain of youth. I would be cautious of assuming his numbers last season will be typical, to be safe i would look closer to his career averages and hope for new career bests. I do however think we will see improvements from last years numbers from Zim, Kearns, Lastings, Dukes, and Lopez. Not to mention an improvement on Nicks 0 gp.

it's not impossible that he won't improve from his career norms, but i think expecting him to match the numbers from last year is a bit much. (a) it was a small sample (40 games) and (b) while the eyes may help, it's not like the shoulder was an issue from 2002-2005, when his numbers weren't that great, so maybe that's not the best reason to expect him to continue exceeding career OPS by 150+ points.

i hope you're right, but i think we're better off expecting the career norm as opposed to expecting him to match career highs. then if he *does* match the high or do better than the norm, we can be happy with it. and if he matches his norm, we don't have to be disappointed.

VT Nats Fan:

I make a hazy and non-scientific distinction between injuries that are more likely due to repetetive stress (shoulders, elbows, knees, etc) and those that are the result of a collision, etc. (unless you're Alex Escobar, in which case, your uniform should be made with bubble wrap). Guzman's injury last season was the latter (though his previous ones were the former). I would love to think that he'll be on the higher side of the curve this year... not to mention that it's his free agent year... and apparently he's a pretty proud guy... so he thinks he has something to prove.

If there's a silver lining in the middle infield, it is that all three guys have something to prove: That Lopez isn't a head case, that Guzman can stay healthy and justify his $4 million, and that Belliard deserved the extension he got... which is the best spin I can put on it, because it looks less and less like Bowden will be making a change there...

i think the injury comment on guzzie is fair, tho. he's never played more than 140ish games in a season and only had 600 ABs once (for a guy who hits in the top of the order, that's not a lot).

as i said, i'll hope for the best with the guy, i know he plays hard and wants to do well. and hopefully he'll build on what he did for 40something games last year. but it's probably not best to count on more than 120-140 games out of him at best (that's what he's played most years).

maybe he'll surprise me. i hope so. i just don't want to set unrealistic expectations up front.

231-

Your comment is reasonable, but Spring Training is about to start! This time of year is all about unrealistic expectations! Therefore, it is time for Guzman to hit .300 and hit 20 HRs!

Oh, no! Here come the punctuation police!! I'll stop! Really!

Crud/

231-

Seriously, though, I really hope that 2 of the 3 middle infielders exceed expectations, because that would be a recipe for a better year than most will predict. If only one does (likelast year, when Belliard found a way to shine), then the middle infield will be a drag on the probably improved offense.

oh, i definitely hope they all do, but i'm going to expect career norms from all of them and be happy if any or all exceed them. i like the way this team is being built and i see the light at the end of the tunnel (even if that end is in 2010 or later), but i realize that 500 is still the goal for this team and, while i'm a "glass half full" guy, i'm still not a "cup runneth over" guy. ;)

The 40-man roster is full, so if Estrada is being added, someone has to be removed. Whitesell seems like the most likely suspect, with Casto right behind -- unless there is a trade in the works. Any word on who it might be?

or langerhans. really don't see a place for him on this team.

No worries, 16 more, you have a ways to go to approach the exclamatory excess of one of my aunts!! She loves, loves, loves exclamation points!!! If one is good, then four must be better!!!! :-)

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231-

Your comment is reasonable, but Spring Training is about to start! This time of year is all about unrealistic expectations! Therefore, it is time for Guzman to hit .300 and hit 20 HRs!

Oh, no! Here come the punctuation police!! I'll stop! Really!

Crud/

Okay, so here's a pointless hypothetical while we wait for the next post:

What if the FA catchers had been signed in reverse order this offseason? What if the Nationals had signed Estrada to the $1.25 million contract first?

Would anyone be clamoring for improvement? How would you take the news that the Nats had an interest in Lo Duca in addition? Would that affect how you view the likely assignment of Flores to the minors?

Oh, and pretend the Mitchell Report wasn't due until 2009 or something. And that Lo Duca didn't tear his meniscus.

Just wondering.

John, can we pretend his name is Brian Schneider, too?

If Estrada was the #1 sign i would have been more disappointed. I think LoDuca is overpaid (especially because we probably could have gotten him for i discount after the Mitchell report). However, LoDuca is still considered a solid catcher and a good hitter, and the reputation does help. If we hadn't signed LoDuca then half of you would probably still be complaining about how cheap the ownership group is. While i never thought LoDuca was a great signing it did show that the organization was willing to spend a little on a name. That can go a long way to showing a fan base that they care. I don't think that the Estrada signing would have had as much of an impact. These were the best 2 catchers on the market and we did well to pick them up. If there's better next year we'll go after them, if not we'll expect Flores to be ready or we'll resign these guys. I like what we're doing.

I was looking at Nationals Farm Authority, and thinking about where flores would go, and it really seems that Harrisburg might be a fun team to pay attention to this year.

Lo Duca would have been exciting to obtain even two off-seasons ago, so I give him as much benefit of the doubt as Lopez, or Guzman. For excitement, though, folks, think of a full season of Wily Mo, or a full season of Lastings Milledge. There is real reason to be pumped. Pete's sake- the idea of Nick Johnson playing at all is exciting to me.

The 40-man roster is full, so if Estrada is being added, someone has to be removed. Whitesell seems like the most likely suspect, with Casto right behind -- unless there is a trade in the works. Any word on who it might be?

...sigh...

---

John, can we pretend his name is Brian Schneider, too?

I wrote to MLBTraderumors.com's mailbag yesterday to ask the following question. I didn't prime the pump by mentioning the Nats. I find the answer surprising:

You clearly need to pay attention to the local press for each team to sniff out trade rumors across baseball. We all know which markets have the heaviest media coverage of their baseball teams. Which markets do you find have the lightest local media coverage? - Kevin

The Orioles seem a bit light from my vantage point - it's only really the Sun getting scoops. The A's are neglected, but fortunately we have Susan Slusser on the beat. The Marlins seem really light to me on blog coverage.

231 & VT Nats fan-

I think you both make good points on the middle infield. Taking a step back, comparing to last year, I think the Nats have improved everywhere but the middle infield and the bullpen. For the 'pen, it was solid and I don't have concerns there. I think we all have concerns about the middle infield. Not that there was much available this off season, but our existing question marks and relative lack of minor league depth at 2B and SS are concerning.

NJ,

All true, but i still wouldn't count out Jimbo. Who of you would bet against another trade or two before the season starts. Certainly something will go down before July 31st, so i wouldn't worry too much. Not to mention, we're still two years away from the Plan's goal for playoff contention.

"I think you both make good points on the middle infield. Taking a step back, comparing to last year, I think the Nats have improved everywhere but the middle infield and the bullpen"

If people stay healthier we're in better shape in both of these areas also. Remember they were treating Ayala with kid gloves last year. I'd expect he'll be back to himself this year. That will help the bullpen a lot. If Guzman can finally stay healthy then the middle is definitely better than a year ago. I'm getting pretty psyched!

Bazz, I'm in line with your thoughts. I think the the middle infield will be just fine. Health is the only concern. I've had some reservations, but I am beginning to think that FLOP will rebound. If Guz can stay healthy and Belly have a similar year as last, things are looking up. I can smell Viera from here, oh, thats Panera isn't it.

Pre-Nats, the Post often scooped the Sun on Orioles news (Ripken's retirement).

Not to be the skunk at the garden party, but I think we should get ready for some preseason forecasts from prognosticators that do not fall in line with the optimistic views here on Planet NJ.

The line might go something like this:

"Here's a team that overachieved last year based on a combination of positive clubhouse chemistry, unexpected contributions from castoffs and an inexperienced rotation whose below-average performance was masked by cavernous RFK and a solid defensive catcher. They still have huge questions in the rotation due to inexperience and injuries. The new park won't hide this weakness like RFK did. LoDuca and Estrada are weak defenders. Clubhouse chemistry is in doubt with the departures of Schneider and Church and the additions of Milledge and Dukes. And while they're hoping for improvements on offense from almost every position (think about that for a second -- it's true), that's unlikely to happen. There is as much or more downside risk as upside potential, at least in 2008. Not only that, but the Nats will have to contend with the likes of the Mets, the Braves and the Phillies in the NL East. Expect this team to be fighting the Marlins for fourth place again this year."

new post

A few more schedule notes based on my own informal count of the schedule. (Could be off by a few, but ....):

- 72 games against NL East Opponents (18 each)
- 18 games against AL opponents including 6 against O's
- 41 games against NL Central
- 31 games against NL West

Except for the O's the AL opponents are from the AL West this year.

Including opening week and the all-star break there will be 22 off days. Excluding opening week and the allstar break there will be 17 off-days spread out over six months.

The longest road trips are 11 days (Sept), 10 Days (June), 10 days (July). There are also a couple of 8 day trips.

The longest home stands: 12 days (Apr/may), 10 (june), and 11 (sep).

"Except for the O's the AL opponents are from the AL West this year."

Nope, Minnesota is in the Central. Don't know why they were included instead of Oakland.

Also, it's 40 vs. NL Central and 32 vs. NL West.

e & others,

Thanks for clearing me up on the trade details that brought us LoDuca/Milledge.

After pondering your arguments, I'm now over losing Schneider and I'll be happy to cheer for our catcher (I'll just be really excited in a year or two when it gets to be Flores' turn).

I'm glad I got over that before pitchers and catchers report to camp. Thanks NJ'ers.

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Hello, of course I came to visit your site and thanks for letting me know about it.
I just read this post and wanted to say it is full of number one resources. Some I am familiar with. For those who don't know these other sites they are in for a treat as there is a lot to learn there.