Barry,

Any word on why Patterson threw so many curveballs in his outing?

Will Johnson/Young both be playing the split-squad games today?

Is the new HSCS scoreboard operation coming together?

The Astros' joint over in Kissimmee is nice.

Thanks for all the great news, this is really helping me recover from the long, long winter.

Interesting writing when Boz gets to a Nats Game. Hope he spent some time talking with Nats FO in addition to his life long O's pals....

In any case he focused on the exact topic I had been asking Barry about for 2 months.

"Looks like Patterson's arm hurts him," said Orioles executive Mike Flanagan, meaning no harm, just ballpark chat. "He used to have this nice long arm extension. Now his motion is short and he's throwing a lot of curveballs."

"Patterson says he feels great," I said. "You never saw a guy so happy to be pitching again."

"Until Patterson gets a radar gun to 92 mph this season, feel free to hold your breath".

Not sure how Flanagen can take one look and pick out that he has no fastball and the pack of our Media types can watch him pitch batting practice and pull pen sessions and miss he still can not hit throw 90 MPH or more.

All that was written leading up to this time was how much hop he has on fastball.....What happened?

Where is jpsfanandproudofit when you need her? Im assuming its his wife.

Or his mother.

pssst . . . Barry . . . . tell your bosses they've gacked the metro station next to Trustys on their big "how to get to the game" map on C2 in the $1.50 edition.

Right on 231-To pick up any of those FA pitchers would have been such a waste, well, of everything. Yawn is right. I'm so tired of hearing about Hernandez, etc. Las t year Hernandez's stats-4.93 ERA, .308 BA, 90 SO in 200 innings. Chico's stats-463 ERA, 281 BA, 94So in 167 innings. Other than the wins Glavine's stats weren't all that impressive either and he's over 40. And, of course, we couldn't have signed him anyway.
I'll take Smoker and Zimmermann over keeping a Soriano at such an exorbitant cost, especially at the Nat's stage of development. The Lerners are not being cheap, not yet, anyway; they are simply being prudent.
I hope Church is alright.

Young's sitting out a couple days for his strained side. See the Notebook:

http://tinyurl.com/2trluq
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Will Johnson/Young both be playing the split-squad games today?

Posted by: i hate walks | March 2, 2008 08:28 AM

Thanks Jeeves, for the extra n

If Odalis Perez starts 20 games for the Nationals, it is going to be a very long season. Patterson reached 95 in 2005, and to have that kind of season he needs to again. But most pitchers coming back from surgery do not build arm strength overnight. Sometimes it takes most of a season to do so. It may not be until June that Patterson hits 92 again and 95 may be a memory. If he can throw the curve for strikes--which he could not do last year in April--he might be better than Perez.

A few points:

Mr. IB, thanks for pointing out that the response to DJ26 in the last thread re: the Church collision was not posted by me. I'm with those who supported Church when he was here but also understand why he might be happy to have a new opportunity elsewhere. The trade was a good one for both teams. Having said that, I sure wish we still had Schneider behind the plate, particularly in view of the injuries to the Pusher and Estrada, and the probability that we'll be running some young arms out there again this year. We could really use a respected veteran catcher that would serve as a coach on the field, and we don't have that anymore.

The classic courtroom drama posted by JMpls clearly belongs in the NJ Hall of Fame, probably the lead exhibit. Barry himself said something to the effect of "that's worth keeping," and I suspect he has a printout stashed away someplace.

Good to see some regulars from last year returning to the Journal this spring -- welcome back folks!

I think we've beaten the "Lerners are cheap" and "we should have signed mediocre FA starters to fat contracts" arguments to death (again). There are only 3-4 people who make those arguments anyway and I think the rest of us are firmly on the other side.

Yesterday I asked whether Hill's forearm tightened up as his pitch count rose, and suggested that if so, perhaps he could still be an asset out of the pen. Happily that now sounds premature, as the reverse appears to be the case -- he says it loosens up as the innings go by. I think that's encouraging news.

Similarly, if Patterson wants to take it easy in his first start, work on his curveball and not rear back and throw the heater at 100%, count me in favor. We need to look only as far as Estrada to see why going all out in early March, coming off surgery, might not be a good idea.

Hey, if I found a way to produce a "Planet NJ" pin, something like a white baseball (the planet) with red seams, circled by a blue banner with white stars (styled after the NJ logo but not identical -- think Saturn's rings not a simple circle around the ball), something that looked like one of those Olympic pins that you could stick on your hat or your jersey, would people buy that? I don't think we'd need anyone's approval for that. If there is interest I'll explore the cost, but my thought, again, would be to sell these at cost plus a slight markup and then donate the entire profit margin to ImpActa.

Bob - I'm in for the pin and don't see why you couldn't clear a little profit to account for the time you put into it.

Nice summary. Woke up today even more worried about Hill's arm. I wish we had some established successful pitchers on the roster he could talk to and compare how their arm feels at this point. Maybe Rijo can give that feedback.

Also, the photo gallery has a picture of a banner that says "Nats Fans" with a big #10 underneath. If you look at the pressbox camera you can see the new banner on a small square building above right field, next to the scoreboard. Not sure what that building is, but I don't object to covering it up with a banner. I'm not sure about this one though -- I guess they're suggesting that fans are the 10th man? A little cheesy. I might be OK with it, eventually, except that Ronnie Belliard already wears #10! So I find it a bit strange.

All right, I have one more idea and then I'll shut up for awhile. What are the odds that the Presidents Race on opening day starts with only Abe, George and Thomas coming out of right field, leading all of us to wonder whether Teddy ran to RFK instead. Then Teddy emerges, riding on Jimbo's souped-up Segway and achieving a come-from-behind victory, only to be disqualified for use of a performance-enhancing device?

jeeves had the extra "n" right. there's zimmerman, the 3B, and zimmermann, the SP picked with a compensation pick for soriano.

Teddy on PED? Explains his big head.

Cindy Lou - Bill James's projection on Odalis Perez for this year: 18 starts, 96 innings, 12.6 baserunners per 9 innings, 4.31 ERA. If he gave us that when he pitched, I'd be more than pleased. But I agree that he's been too erratic to really have confidence in what we are getting.

I'm on board with those who suggested not gorging on middling starters. Matt - Josh Towers? The counter strategy, of letting guys take a few lumps a bit early, I think has been successful in a number of cases. That is basically what the Marlins used with Beckett, Burnett, Willis, et al. But what I guess what you'd argue is that the Indians / Blue Jays model is better, when you bring in the McGowans, Marcums, Carmonas, and Laffeys around the Halladays and Sabathias and Westbrooks. However, I don't think any of the obtainable names you listed were Halladay or Sabathia quality (Maddux, Glavine, and Pettite aren't that good anymore and weren't going anywhere but where they ended up). By the way, while Silva had a decent 2007, he had an ERA around 6 and was dropped from the rotation in 2006.

Two other topics:

1) Barry - along the lines of the "guess the rotation" topic, how about "guess the innings for the starters?" Set a target of 900 innings by starters (28 less than the NL average last year, but 40 -50 more than the Nats got last year), and guess (1) whether the Nats will hit that, (2) how many starters will have 6 or more starts (basically a month in the rotation), and (3) the innings they will pitch. Winner gets to sit by you in the press box at a Redskins game next year, complaining about the lack of coverage of the Nats?

2) This article discusses successful major league ownership across football, baseball, hockey, and basketball. It surveys the past 2 ownerships of all teams in each sport, and basically concludes that half of all ownerships that are going to win a championship do so in a relatively short time (8 years in football, 5 in the other other sports). That is regardless of the revenue and salary structure in the league (capped / uncapped / guarantees / revenue sharing / TV contracts . . .). So, The Plan has about 5 years (2011)? Also, what does that say about Danny?

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2008/03/02/to_be_a_champion_/?page=1

How about guess the 25 man roster?

I'd like to know how I managed to start more games than myself...

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Tim Redding, Joel Hanrahan, Mike Bacsik, Jason Simontacchi and - for goodness sake - Micah Bowie all started more games than Bowie.

I like the pin idea, Bob L (and I knew that posting wasn't yours).

For those who care I believe Baltimore is broadcasting their game against the Nats on WHFS. It is also available on MLB Gameday for subscribers. It does not appear to be available via XM.

It looks like Bill James is just averaging the very distant good years for Perez against the more recent bad ones. Perez last good year was in 2004, since then he has been 6.83, 5.64, and 5.55. That's pretty consistent with a trend line that is working the right way, but Baseball Prospectus reads that trend as headed toward 5.43 in 2008, not the more unrealistic 4.31. Let's hope that Bill is spot on with his Millege projection of 18 homers, 21 steals and an average of .281. That I hope is sound as a bell.

Cindy Lou Who?

Yer welome, Mr. Head, but really, the illiteracy was the tip-off. We may not know much about FA pitchers and economics here, but we OWN spelling and grammar.

I like the idea of Teddy coming out on the Segway. My suggestion would be to let W. run in the race, I'm sure he would smoke the field.

"So, The Plan has about 5 years (2011)?"

that's really 4.5 years... i'd give them til 2012, which would be 5 full seasons. it's really not fair to count the half season when they had no effect on the offseason.

Didn't they do Segways at a game last year already? Great idea for OD, just not sure how original it would be.

Although Teddy doing another Zipline run at the new stadium would still be pretty cool...

Cindy Lou - I agree BP's more realistic. James's numbers are close to career average, but his last 3 years were certainly worse than average. 2005 and 2007 had injuries, and 2006 apparently he was put in the Dodgers doghouse early. Signing him was not a bad gamble, though.

"The counter strategy, of letting guys take a few lumps a bit early, I think has been successful in a number of cases. That is basically what the Marlins used with Beckett, Burnett, Willis, et al."
- Jon

Sorry to state the obvious but we do not have anywhere near the talent of Beckett, Burnett and Willis in our farm system....most scouts see our top prospects as no more than #2 or 3 starters. Chico as a boarderline #5 starter on a bad team.

Those who point to the Tigers development as a model....take a look at the lineup....not much home grown talent....and they do well is spend big bucks on signing the top dollar "un signable picks".....much more money than Jack M's under $2 Million cost......Big money gets Tigers big talent.... not the #2 or 3 ceiling starters we drafted in 2007.

Thanks, JayB... at least I know I'm not completely alone.

jon - you can hate on Josh Towers if want, and he's certainly far from anything special, but FOR THE 100TH TIME PEOPLE, I'm not saying that Towers would have put us over the hump and made us division champs. His stats from last year were extremely similar to Bergmann's, and MY POINT was/is that if signing Towers for the 400k (400k!) that he got means that Balester and/or Detwiler spend another year in the minors, THAT IS A GOOD THING.

Opening day rotation:

1. Bergman
2. Chico
3. Perez
4. Redding
5. Lannan

Hill -- DL. Patterson -- DL, AAA or designated for assignment.

Another prediction: People here will say that Hill and Patterson's failures are actually a positive for the team because it will enable youngins' Chico and Lannan to get more innings. They will also say that no one was really counting on Hill and Patterson anyway -- although they said the opposite in late February when the Nats refused to pay Livo a decent wage.

Yes, they did.

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Didn't they do Segways at a game last year already?

Does anyone have lineups for todays games?

Bob L. - if the proceeds are going to ImpActa Kids, I'd be OK with a more substantial markup... say cost + $10.

If you weren't so cheap you'd spend $50 on a Free Agent pin.

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Bob L. - if the proceeds are going to ImpActa Kids, I'd be OK with a more substantial markup... say cost + $10.
Posted by: MKevin | March 2, 2008 12:52 PM

Matt, if your point is that it's not a bad idea to sign an MLB-average back-of-the-rotation starter for a bargain basement price while giving young prospects time to develop in AA, I don't think you will find many here who disagree with you (hence the general support for signing Odalis Perez for $850k).

Signing an MLB-average back-of-the-rotation starter to a multi-year, multi-million dollar deal is another story because there's no reason for this team to do that -- better to find out if young guys can be major league-average or better (as Chico was last year).

And as for Josh Towers, he had a decent 2005 when he went 13-12 in 33 starts, 208 innings and a 3.71 ERA. If I thought there was a remote chance that he was that kind of pitcher then I would have advocated signing him at $4 million per, much less $400k. Unfortunately in 2006 he sported an ERA of 8.42 and a 2-10 W/L record. He followed that up by going 5-10, 5.38 in 2007. In short, he'd be competing with Bacsik, Redding, Hanrahan and their like for the #5 spot here, at best, not exactly the answer to anything.

JayB, I don't think anyone is going to argue that injuries to Patterson and/or Hill is good for the team because it gives innings to the youngsters. That argument applies, again, to overpriced average veteran starters, not to these guys who still have substantial upside at their respective ages if they can manage to stay on the field.

And why in the world would you predict that Patterson will be DFA'd? That doesn't make any sense either.

Game on!

Win-Loss records and ERA's are worthless stats.

OK, all the central points aside, $seven-digits/year and "decent wage" don't belong in the same sentence.

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"... when the Nats refused to pay Livo a decent wage.

Posted by: swanni | March 2, 2008 12:30 PM

Chipper Jones pulled a hammy and the Bravos don't have anybody to back him up.

Jimbo, time to send Kory Casto to Atlanta for Brent Lillibridge.

I'm not having much success at shutting up.

But in essence, you (Bob L.) are correct that Towers would be competing for the #5 spot.

Having said that, there were 13 guys on that list, with varying degrees of talent and success, all the way from guys who are still unsigned to guys who signed 50 million dollar deals.

All I was trying to do was point out that there was a lot of free-agent pitching with varying talent, any one of whom would help NOT ONLY our 2008 rotation & record, BUT ALSO the long-term well-being of the franchise by keeping the young kids in the minors where they belong.

Some of you have screamed at me about the ridiculousness of Any Pettitte, Carlos Silva, or Josh Towers individually, but you were missing the point. The point was that there was, like I said, varying degrees of talent and contract levels out there to fit whatever it was the front office was looking for.

I'm just hesitant to believe that the option they chose (which was none of the above, and letting the youngsters battle it out) was the best, most efficient option.

Segway, schlegway -- I've been waiting for my jetpack since 1984. I was promised a jetpack, dammit.

and the beauty of this is, you don't have to believe it. Just watch the games, and we'll see.
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I'm just hesitant to believe that the option they chose (which was none of the above, and letting the youngsters battle it out) was the best, most efficient option.

Posted by: Matt | March 2, 2008 01:17 PM

An uncalled for venomous response. Step away from the computer. I think I hear your mommy calling you for lunch.

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If you weren't so cheap you'd spend $50 on a Free Agent pin.

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Bob L. - if the proceeds are going to ImpActa Kids, I'd be OK with a more substantial markup... say cost + $10.
Posted by: MKevin | March 2, 2008 12:52 PM

Posted by: Ahem | March 2, 2008 01:03 PM

Which is not to say "Shut Up and Cheer." (huh?? nevermind...)
Argue away, that's what the offseason is for. That's practically *all* the offseason is for.

I think that was a good-natured shot at the Baratistas, Kevin. Don't take it personally.

New

Matt, I'm not sure we're that far apart in theory -- again, signing an average starter for a reasonable price and keeping prospects in AA is a solid approach. It's just that the market for average starters (Silva) was unreasonable, so most teams, including the Nats, took a pass. Now, there are some guys out there, like Perez, who are at least arguably average and who are accepting a lot less money.

Towers, by the way, stands to make $1.8 million if he makes the roster (only $400k is guaranteed). Toronto waived him twice in 2006 and non-tendered him in 2007. Hence, if you Google the reactions to his current contract, you will find phrases like "more guaranteed money for mediocrity."

Fair enough.

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Hence, if you Google the reactions to his current contract, you will find phrases like "more guaranteed money for mediocrity."

Posted by: Bob L. Head

Post

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New

jeeves had the extra "n" right. there's zimmerman, the 3B, and zimmermann, the SP picked with a compensation pick for soriano.

Posted by: 231 | March 2, 2008 10:43 AM

I know. That's why I thanked Jeeves. He put the extra 'n' there when nobody else does. This IS the grammar blog, right? We have to sprinkle praise in there too sometimes.

They need Patterson or Hill to be healthy on opening day, that's for sure. If not it's going to be another tough April. It's way too early to predict the starting rotation. There are so many guys like O'Connor or Balester who could have a great spring and outshine AAAA pitchers like Redding and so many pitchers on this team are one outing away from the 60-day dl, so I am waiting two more weeks before even thinking about a projected rotation. Some guy from the Angels looked good today. Who is he??