Official Beat Writer Prediction
But before we get to that, I'd like to thank you all for your suggestions and shared experiences regarding last night. Some things will obviously change prior to the opener, but I think the biggest difference will be between now and next Monday, April 7, when the first true homestand begins.
Schedule Today:
Gates open: 3:30 p.m.
Braves batting practice: 4:30-5:30 p.m.
Nationals batting practice: 5:45-7 p.m.
First pitch: 8:15 p.m.
Keep in mind: The $5 seats (less than 400 of them) go on sale at 3:30 p.m., and fans who are lucky enough to get them must go right into the park.
Coverage from last night: Sports today had a look/guess/preview/wonderment about how the park will play. Naturally, we covered the benching of Lopez and Young, and the notebook has a reminder not only that Odalis Perez is the Nationals' Opening Night starter, but that Tim Hudson owned the Nationals last season.
I also get the feeling that Boz likes the ballpark. Perhaps I'm wrong. You tell me.
As much as this is a sports story, however, the first few days are a news story, so there is a glimpse of how transportation worked. Fan reaction was almost universally positive, it seems. And Marc Fisher, who has a keen eye and ear and has an interest in the ballpark, checks in with some ushers.
On to baseball. Yesterday, I asked you to pick your won-loss record for the Nationals this season. The average win total predicted by readers of Nationals Journal (requisite drumroll, please):
81.5
That would leave a record of 81.5-80.5. Or, for fun, let's just round up, so it's 82-80. There were 50 legitimate votes (I took the liberty of tossing out the 132-30 and 1-161 suggestions), and 29 folks predicted a winning season, 18 had a losing season, and three predicted an even-steven 81-81.
With that, I unveil what's behind Door No. 3: My prediction.
Here's some (or, to rephrase, "way too much") background. In the days leading up to last season, I went on Comcast SportsNet's "Washington Post Live" and told Stan Kasten that of the 30 teams in Major League Baseball, I thought the Nationals would rank 31st. (Was kinda backed into a corner, and was just being snarky (shocker), but it's on tape somewhere, a fact of which Mr. Kasten is well-aware.)
Whatever my prediction a year ago, it certainly wasn't 73-89 and in fourth place in the NL East. Again, I find it kind of amazing how much praise the Nats received for going 16 games under .500, but given the framework going into the season, a lot of that was appropriate.
However, that Nationals' team got five wins from Mike Bacsik, four from Micah Bowie, two from Billy Traber, six from Jason Simontacchi and two from Levale Speigner. That's 19 wins right there, and even though Traber remains alive in the majors (with the Yankees, no less) and Bowie has found a home in Colorado, I think it's safe to say that 19 wins - more than a quarter of the Nats' total - was far more than the team had a right to expect from that group.
The point: The Nationals over-achieved last year. Thus, I kinda feel like they'll settle back into what they are in 2008.
What are they? An interesting question. The offense, I believe, is improved. I know there are differences of opinion on Paul Lo Duca's offensive ability, and indeed Brian Schneider's .326 on-base percentage in 2007 was better than Lo Duca's pathetic .311. But Lo Duca now feels his hamstrings are healthy, and I think he'll help roll over the lineup a little bit more (though I'd like to see him batting a little lower).
The real improvements in the offense, however, come from Lastings Milledge and Nick Johnson. Milledge gives the Nationals something they haven't had near the top of the order - other than 2006, when Alfonso Soriano led off - and that's true power potential. If Milledge hits second all year, I bet he and Zimmerman go back-to-back three times.
Johnson is an on-base machine who sees lots of pitches, something that will help the entire lineup. It's hard to say, after Dmitri Young's impressive 2007, that Johnson is a clear upgrade. Or is it? Young went .320/.378/.491 last year. The average and on-base percentages were career highs, and he has out-done the slugging percentage just twice in an 11-year career. Could he repeat that? Doubtful. Johnson went .290/.428/.520 in 2006, the last time he played. This is one of those cases where you can't be fooled by a 30-point difference in batting average. By any other measure, Johnson's '06 was better than Young's '07.
Toss in some random home runs (and plenty of strikeouts) from Elijah Dukes (to start) and Wily Mo Pena, and there's at least a threat of damage lower in the lineup. Plus, I like the idea of Belliard hitting eighth. He's exactly the kind of hitter who won't be rattled by hitting in front of the pitcher. The guy rarely gets himself out, and I believe - just as with Lo Duca - that he'll help turn the lineup over.
The bench, too, I think is better. Once Johnny Estrada comes back from his injury, they'll have three switch-hitters - joining Felipe Lopez and Dmitri Young. Aaron Boone is a veteran right-handed bat who's a huge improvement over Tony Batista in that role. Rob Mackowiak had a horrible spring, but perhaps that was due to the injury. And I really like Willie Harris as a 25th man because he can play almost anywhere defensively and will be a good pinch runner when Dmitri comes up and whacks a pinch-hit single. (Of course, one of these guys will likely have to go when the Weapon of Mass Production comes off the DL).
So the offense is improved. Pitching?
I love the bullpen. Somewhat concerned about Chad Cordero in the new park (and still a little concerned about his lack of velocity in spring training), but he's a proven commodity. Yes, he'll blow some saves. But I'm willing to ride him. Jon Rauch doesn't concern Manny Acta at all, and Luis Ayala may be getting back to 2005 Luis Ayala. Remember his ERAs his first three big league seasons were 2.92, 2.69 and 2.66. That's not a terrible record for a guy pitching the seventh. I'm still intrigued by Joel Hanrahan (though he hasn't thrown 97 mph again like he did in that mid-spring outing against Atlanta), Saul Rivera is quietly efficient (one home run allowed in 85 appearances in 2007). I wish there was one more lefty, but judge Ray King by left-handed hitters' batting average and OBP against him (.187 and .284, respectively) and not by his ERA (4.76). And at this point, I am just praying for Jesus Colome's family and his buttocks.
So it comes down to the rotation. Here's where I have real question marks. I liked the way Odalis Perez threw in spring training, and his changeup is a very nice pitch. But the reality of the major leagues is that if he's you're No. 1 starter, then he's supposed to beat the other No. 1s in your division. This year, that would be Tim Hudson - who we'll see tonight, and who was 4-0 with a 0.60 ERA against the Nationals last year - and Johan Santana and Brett Myers/Cole Hamels. Yikes.
Which is why so much, to me, comes down to Shawn Hill's health. There is no one with better pure stuff on the Nationals' staff. I'd say Tim Redding is throwing the ball well enough to win 8-12 games. Jason Bergmann is good enough to win and at times dominate, but he just hasn't done it consistently. Matt Chico is making a major overhaul of his delivery on the major league stage, and his ERA away from RFK (4.48) was better than at home (4.76), so he could be adversely affected by the new ballpark.
Are the options to turn to when/if those guys go down this year more intriguing? Sure they are, and I have some faith that John Lannan can pitch at the major league level, and pitch effectively, right now. But even if the Nationals turn to Collin Balester/Tyler Clippard/Garrett Mock at some point, they're bound to take their lumps even as they give glimpses of what the future might hold.
(Man, this is long-winded stream-of-consciousness-type stuff right now. My apologies.)
So, in conclusion and summary, I believe the 2008 Nationals to be better than the 2007 Nationals. And what does that translate to?
76-86
All that improvement yields only three more wins? Like I said, this is based on the theory that they over-achieved last year, and that a better team will be more fun to watch, more competitive on a nightly basis - but not worth that much more in the standings.
I'll get you lineups from - gulp - the first game at Nationals Park when I can. Tonight should be truly fun. Bundle up, and enjoy.
By Barry Svrluga |
March 30, 2008; 12:20 PM ET
Previous: Kasten: "A great night" |
Next: Opening Night Lineups and pregame schedule
Posted by: The Beltway Boy | March 30, 2008 12:49 PM
While your predication is probably not unrealistic (plus-or-minus five games), I found the NYT's suggestion that the Nats would finish last in the NL East totally off base. I gotta believe that however well or poorly the Nats perform, the Marlins will be worse. And I also suspect that at least one of the members of the Mets/Phillies/Braves troika is going to crash and burn this year. So we'll just have to wait and see what happens over a 162-game season; that is, after all, why they play them all.
Posted by: Section 133 | March 30, 2008 1:25 PM
Anyone have an opinion on how fast the RFK lot will fill up tonight?
Posted by: Anonymous | March 30, 2008 2:10 PM
hope you dont mind im throwing out your prediction because you were so wrong last year.
Posted by: love | March 30, 2008 2:12 PM
Addinition tickets to tonights game have been released on the team's website.
Posted by: Nationals.com | March 30, 2008 2:16 PM
Barry: When do you plan to start covering the Redskins?
Posted by: ballfan | March 30, 2008 2:18 PM
I am not sure that the team handled the tickets sales for today very well. Still, if any of those $39 tickets still remain later, I may just slip out this evening for a cold Opening Day.
Posted by: Positively Half St. | March 30, 2008 2:39 PM
I enjoyed fantasizing about slipping out for Opening Day for those couple of minutes, but that is the extent of it. It is my daughter's 12th birthday, and we will all be going out for dinner.
Have fun all, stay warm. The team is a distant second for me today, even for the opening of the stadium.
Posted by: Positively Half St. | March 30, 2008 3:11 PM
One factor you didn't mention is the mediocrity of the NL East, the NL in general, and our interleague matchup with the short-stack AL West. I just kind of think that it'll be hard for anyone to get very far below .500 (except maybe the Giants and Pirates) in the NL. I figure we'll blow our share, but we'll get a goodly number back. So I would give us 2-3 more wins than you have on the basis of the weak opposition. But if we were playing in the AL East or Central, we'd be looking at 68 wins or less.
Posted by: Steven on Capitol Hill | March 30, 2008 3:29 PM
I can't believe I jut got a ticket online. Section 218 here I come.
Posted by: OMG | March 30, 2008 3:51 PM
Barry --
Love the stream-of-consciousness type stuff. More of it. This is a blog, that's what it is for.
Too cold for me to fight crowds and wait outside all night. Will have to check it out thoroughly one night next week. Tried to get ticx on the Nats site just now but they aren't available. I feel like the club did a screwy job with the way they sold tickets for tonight's game and I hope that tonight doesn't sell out because of it and they learn a lesson. I'm certainly not going to by a $68 walk-up ticket fifteen minutes before game time tonight, and I don't think many others will, either. I wonder how many people will just go for it and buy a pair of season tickets tonight? Three?
As for the w/l, my prediction was 82-80 anyway, based on a healthy Nick Johnson and an exciting nail-biter of a season.
Here's to a hot summer and cold Yuengling in a cool Nationals Park!
Posted by: i hate walks | March 30, 2008 4:07 PM
Barry --
A very professional and thorough analysis. Could be a couple of games either way. Isn't that why they actually play the games??
My only difference with you is I don't share your confidence in the bullpen. Chad Cordero is a heartbreak waiting to happen. Are Rivera, Colome and King going to be as good as last year? To me, that's the make-or-break issue this season -- the bullpen.
Look forward to watching it all unfold.
Posted by: Vandy | March 30, 2008 4:19 PM
The key to the batting order I think is getting about .340 OBP out of our SS. I was very happy that Guzman drew a walk the first time up vs Loewen. If either Guzman or his backup can let us maintain league average out of that spot in the order, then the line up works very well. As Barry puts it, Belliard is a very consistent and disciplined guy who will not get himself out. Putting him instead of Lo Duca at #8 avoid bunching two (or 3) holes in the 8-9 (1) spot. I'm not sold on Lo Duca's offense yet, but I suppose that if either Elijah or WMP gets going, they can be moved to 6th or 5th. Slotting them 7th takes some pressure off for now.
Going again tonight. Victory!
Posted by: PTBNL | March 30, 2008 4:47 PM
Thanks for the input, James Joyce.
Since my prediction was thrown out the window, I will refrain from any further commentary.
Posted by: John in Mpls | March 30, 2008 5:14 PM
I keep seeing "beat writer prediction" and thinking that it relates to the poor unfortunate writer who is going to have to fill Barry's shoes one day...
Posted by: natsfan1a | March 30, 2008 5:25 PM
natsfan1a -- I keep thinking the same (sad) thing.
Barry, you can assure us and reassure us, but we're going to miss you when the day comes.. Be sure of that.
Hopefully you'll get bored during the summer and poke your head in here and give us an occasional snark.
Posted by: i hate walks | March 30, 2008 5:54 PM
Glad to know that I'm not the only one, IHW, and I agree with you on both counts.
Posted by: natsfan1a | March 30, 2008 6:59 PM
Well, Frank left, and somehow we managed. It'll be OK.
Posted by: I kid. | March 30, 2008 8:27 PM
The comments to this entry are closed.
Barry, you could be right; in fact, you could be spot-on
If ...
The Nationals play down to their potential, if the majority of the starters play adequately but not great.
The offense - if the boys play to their potential - could get 142 homers just from their starting lineup: Guzman (5) - Milledge (21)- Zimmerman (25) - Johnson (22) - Kearns (20) - Dukes/Pena (24) - Belliard (13) - LoDuca/Estrada (12), and there could be another 15-20 homers in there if guys like Kearns and Zimmerman take their game to the next level.
A healthy pitching staff could net 59 wins: Hill (13) - Bergman (13) - Redding (12) - Chico (11) and Perez (10). This is, of course, assuming they all play as well as they did last year, perhaps a tinch better. Last year, the "Motley Crew" won 39 games. Assuming the bullpen wins the same number as last year, the Nationals could then win 93 games.
We should then subtract 10 wins because these stats were based on a best-case scenario, and *voila*, the Nats should win 83 games in 2008.