May 1

Early ended the last day of Spring Training. Spring Training started in mid-February. This is late April. The whole season counts. Obviously it is still technically "early" on in the season; but that doesn't mean it doesn't effect the team's record.

It's not too early to be disappointed. We are new fans who are learning the high hopes everyone has in Spring Training fade away for most teams pretty early.

Perhaps I spoke too soon:

ESPN: "Report: Blue Jays release [Frank] Thomas after slow start to 2008 season"

So maybe now is the end of early.

Good thing you're not a Tigers' fan, AS.

Early for what? Finishing in fourth place? Nah, plenty of time left for that.

For winning 86 games? They are not looking like they'll turn around this sloppy, clumsy, pressing, out-of-it play anytime soon. So it may already be late for that.

But hey, even a blind pig can root up 25 truffles out of 30 tries later in the year, right?

They would have to be 20 above .500 the rest of the way to win 86 games. The National League is weak, but not that weak.

It is no longer early when your clubhouse leader comes into camp over 300lbs and is proud to say he has not picked up a bat all winter. Set the tone for the year don't you think?

It is not longer early after May 1 for Individual Stats for a team April 1.

Idea: Trade Johnson for valuable pieces (and not risky low-A prospects), and sign Frank Thomas. Rinse And repeat.

The framing of the question points out the problem--expectations. I don't know why the team thought they would be better than last year (did they? or is that just the blogosphere?).

In fact, last year they were very, very fortunate not to be historically bad, and this year they aren't much better. Yes, I think the organization is closer to winning their next WS now than they were last year at this time, but that's because of an influx of young talent in the organization. The vast majority of those players aren't even on the 40-man roster, much less helping them win now.

Look at all the things that surprisingly went well last year--DY, the late run of wins over the Mets, Bergmann's run of hot starts before the injury, Hill pitching very well when healthy, Redding pitching well at all, Chico eating up innings, 15 wins combined from Simontacchi, Bowie and Bascik, the bullpen (not just solid, but one of the best in baseball and not breaking down while pitching the most innings in the league), Guzzy and WMP playing over their heads in Sept.... I'm forgetting a few I'm sure.

So why are we supposed to be better this year? Our rotation is still historically bad, and it very probably will be even worse than last year. Plus, expecting the bullpen to give us the performance that it did last year is unreasonable, if nothing else because we're down a closer, but also because the innings have to be taking a toll, and relievers are just so damn erratic, so the starters will be even more exposed. The lineup? Milledge is an upgrade over our terrible mix of CFs last year, but where else is there supposed to be dramatic improvement? OK, you could reasonably expect some improvement over last year from Kearns, Zimmerman, LoDuca (vs. Schneider), and a few others, but not major breakthroughs, and really there might not be improvement even from those 3 (as we've seen).

So... last year we went into the season holding our breaths for a possible disaster of epic proportions, and were pleasantly surprised when we weren't totally humiliated all year. This year we should have had similar expectations, because we aren't really any better, and the things that allowed us to do better than expected last year weren't really all that repeatable.

In other words, it's not too early to acknowledge that we're among the worst, if not THE worst team in MLB. In fact, that recognition is coming late.

BUT! Before all you knuckleheads start blaming Kasten for not building a winner with 1 draft or Lerner for not spending more money on the likes of Kyle Lohse, realize that the Nats circa 2005 was quite possibly the least talent top-to-bottom franchise in the history of MLB, which came as a result of 5 years of being owned and operated by our competitors for their benefit. Want to know why we suck? Ask Bud why he wouldn't let us even offer arbitration to Vlad Guerrero, hence denying us even the compensatory picks (answer: because he was trying to run the team into the ground as part of a threat to contract the team during negotiations with the players union). Ask Orlando Cabrera why he left our team (answer: because he knew that as long as we were owned by MLB that we'd never compete). And ask, Omar Minaya shipped off Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee, and Brandon Phillips for a 1-year rental of Bartolo Colon (answer: because facing imminent contraction there was no point in keeping prospects, and since every other GM knew we were facing contraction they knew they wouldn't have to give value to get our young talent).

It's going to take time, and nothing, I repeat NOTHING Kasten could have done in one draft and 2 off seasons could have made this team into a winner.

Or to quote Elijah Dukes: "'If it ain't broke, don't fix it.' ... That, my friend, is very broke."

Are you sure there is nothing he could have done? Cubs went from last to first in one year. Or do you mean nothing they were willing to do would make this team a winner.

Now, if Smoker, McGeary, Detwiler, and Marrero all flop, and we're still below .500 in 2010, then it'll make sense to call for Kasten's head.

The starters, except for Redding, have some ugly numbers, but in fact most of these losses are on the bullpen, which nobody expected to blow up in April, or the lack of hitting, which looked much more promising than it's delivered so far. So "historically bad" is just not reasonable.
"Worst team in baseball" -- well, they aren't looking too good, that's for sure.

So Jay, are you saying that right now the Nats should have: Soriano, Livan, Loche, Hunter, etc? Even with those guys, and likely a $100 million payroll, I think the team would be below .500. The Orioles tried the FA plan, it doesn't work. Painfull as it is, the Plan is the right way to rebuild.

andrew, i think you have frank thomas confused with someone who actually plays 1B. frank hasn't played 1B (at *ALL*) since 2004 (when he played all of 4 games there). he hasn't played more than 30 games at 1B since 1999. and hasn't played over 100 games at 1B since 1996. he'd be more of a defensive liability than meathook.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/t/thomafr04.shtml

What he said. In less than 100 words, total, too. (cough)
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Early for what? Finishing in fourth place? Nah, plenty of time left for that.

For winning 86 games? They are not looking like they'll turn around this sloppy, clumsy, pressing, out-of-it play anytime soon. So it may already be late for that.

Posted by: CE | April 20, 2008 11:58 AM
___________________________
But hey, even a blind pig can root up 25 truffles out of 30 tries later in the year, right?

Posted by: CE | April 20, 2008 12:01 PM

Upon conclusion of the upcoming mega-homestand, it shall no longer be "early". Until then, all ills can be blamed upon travel upheaval and intoxication from the "new car smell" fumes of NatsPark.

May 1 is when its no longer early.

But, despite the sloppy play, the team is showing signs of coming around. Hey after losing 12 of 13, its hard to focus.

Hill's performance last nice exceeded my modest expectations.

Nick Johnson is strong. Guzman is strong.

Lopez, Pena, Kearns and even Zimmerman are showing signs that they are not just corpses.

The chief is getting back to form.

I think we'll be over .500 over the next 20 games.

Today I'm following from Nairobi and I'm feeling like its a win and the second series win of the year.

Oh, and the adjective to describe last nites game, and the 2 weeks before is, of course, DREAD.

Are you sure there is nothing he could have done? Cubs went from last to first in one year. Or do you mean nothing they were willing to do would make this team a winner.
____________

See, this is the kind of totally uninformed comment that would be a lot less common if the Post wasn't almost totally silent on the historically dreadful state of the talent on this team when they arrived in DC.

Let's say we signed every FA available--every single one. We'd still be a losing team, because our rotation would be Kyle Lohse, Livan Hernandez, and Carlos Silva, none of whom had a record over .500 last year while all pitched for winning teams.

We in fact did sign the highest paid 1B and C available--LoDuca and Aaron Boone. How's that working out? You want to sign Andruw Jones and watch him hit .222? Or sign Aaron Rowand to block Milledge for the next 5 years? Is he making the Giants a winning team? There just aren't very many good players available in FA, and last year in particular there were very, very few.

You could make trades, but you have to have assets that teams are interested in. People keep saying idiotic things like "trade Nick Johnson for real prospects...." Whom do you think is going to give real prospects for NICK JOHNSON??? They guy can't cross the street without getting hurt. Look at the package the Twins got for Johan Santana, and you think we're going to get multiple talented prospects for NJ? You're dreaming.

So you have to draft and develop. That takes time.

more importantly, look at what chicago *had* before spending big money on a couple of FAs (soriano, lilly, marquis (ugh))to go worst to first (and don't forget how badly they underachieved to be in last place).

a ramirez, carlos lee, derosa, Zambrano, rich hill, wuertz, dempster, howry, wood, theriot (who had a 900 OPS in part time duty in 06 before they signed sori), barrett...

change "carlos" to "derrek" above, i meant derrek lee.

@231--no joke. I don't think this team had a single player outside Soriano that would have even started for that last place Cubs team. And that Soriano contract will be killing the Cubs when he's making 10 mil a year at 38.

Sorry, it was a mistake not to sign a Lohse or a Livo to a one year to prevent the wear and tear on the bullpen and to provide experience.

The reality is that it's now four years and the team is going backwards, and before you blame MLB - consider that, once in DC, MLB spent more on this team than the current group. Next offseason, I hope to see some effort to sign some FA's, because you can't completely build a team from within. I am not looking for the Nats to sign a Furcal but I like to see some effort here.

Unfortunately, I am dumb enough to keep rooting for the Nats even tho it appears that the team is planning on fielding weak teams for the forseeable future.

wait a minute, was Acta comparing Zim to Cal and Tejada?

The Cal that in his first three full seasons batted:

1982 - .264/.317/.475, 28 HR, 93 RBI
1983 - .318/.371/.517, 27 HR, 102 RBI
1984 - .304/.374/.510, 27 HR, 86 RBI

and Tejada, the 'roid/HGH user?

Manny, you can not be serious. Zim either needs a day off, or moved down in the lineup. How many runs has he kept off the board by popping up, striking out or hitting weak infield tappers?

I love Zim and think he will be great. But something is wrong with his approach (is the hamate bone surgery still affecting him????), and something needs to be done right now.

at the time, both Lohse and Livo were seeking MULTI-year deals. Notice how no one in MLB signed either for more than a one year deal? NOBODY wanted these guys beyond this year. By the time Lohse settled with the Cards, the Nats had signed Odalis for a one-year deal.

Did anyone ever really expect that the Nats were going to be better than they've been thus far? With this starting staff? With all the injuries to some of their biggest bats? This team will win someday. Enjoy the wins when they come, but don't expect that they are going to be better than they are right now - which is a young and mediocre team that needs to develop.

Steven on Cap. Hill -

I agree with everything you said, EXCEPT that Nick Johnson couldn't fetch valuable prospects. Perhaps not right now (18 games in), but by the deadline when a team could use a hitter like NJ (who couldn't?) and is on the verge of contending.

Bowden has a way of suprising us when we least expect it.

That's not true. The ML roster payroll was more, but there's far more to any business, especially this one.

*******************
once in DC, MLB spent more on this team than the current group.
Posted by: DKNatsFan | April 20, 2008 12:57 PM

DeRose was signed as a FA just before last year for the Cubs, when we Fick to be our jack of all trades.....No I do not think the we should build like the Cubs....but it is the was just a conveninet way to show how obserd your contention that Stan could do nothing....They can do better than this and still build the farm system.....as long as you all drink the cool aid why should then spend. $10 Million for Alfonso at 38.....where do I sign...we have Young and Lo Duca for $10n Million....and I get Alfonso for 5 years leading up to 38.....ya Young and Lo Duca now is better right?

so out of that long list of players, i missed one (and one of the least important of who i listed).

i don't think stan could have "done nothing," as you put it. i just think that a lot of what you suggest he should have done is either hindsight (yes, i'm still laughing at the "jason kendall" comment last week) or patchwork guys. nothing that would do anything like what happened with the cubs (worst to first). which is far more obserd (sic) than suggesting that bowden could have done nothing (which i didn't say).

btw, whoever put up that soriano number put up the wrong number. the last 5 years of his deal are $18m/per.

07:$9M, 08:$13M, 09:$16M, 10-14:$18M annually

oh, and comparing derosa (signed to be the starting 2B in chicago) and fick (signed to be the last guy on the bench, 3rd string 1b, 3rd string of, and 3rd string catcher) is, well, just as obserd (sic). sure you don't want to compare soriano's signing with mackowiak's, too?

That makes more sense....$10 Million sounded to good to be true. Nothing wrong with hind sight. You study history in order not to repeat it. In this case Jason K, Livo, Lohse whom ever....shows this team, Stan's plan and Jimbo's ego moves could be much better.

Ah... the first Zimm air-mailed throw of the year. Now the season is really underway!

2 K's. I'm becoming a fan of Perez.

And everybody who wants Zimmerman to be the face of the franchise. Maybe. But I think it's Johnson. He's a major building block, not a trading piece.

nothing wrong with hindsight to learn from, jayb, but your comment was criticizing the FO because they didn't sign kendall instead of loduca. even thought you hadn't bothered to cite kendall before the season started and before he had a hot start. maybe i should have used the words "revisionist history" instead.

now, if you'd have advocted kendall in december, while i would have called you crazy then, i might be eating my words now (altho i might still get to call you crazy in september, does the name chris shelton mean anything to you?? (hint: 1.200 ops in april, no OPS higher than 703 any other month of the year, culminating in a 549 OPS in september)).

Some wise person mentioned this above, but I'd like to reiterate that Frank Thomas hasn't played a game in the field since 2004, when he only played 4. In the three years prior to that, he played 34. Statistics like these are easily available on the internet, and you'd appear smarter if you'd consult them, instead of immediately posting any thought that pops into your head, in the hopes that if you throw enough junk against the wall, something may eventually stick.

So, as you read these comments, you might want to consider the baseball acumen of those that suggest we acquire the Big Hurt, and keep that in mind as you consider the validity of the rest of their posts.

nick has to play some full seasons before he can be the face of the franchise. he's had essentially one full season and two near-full seasons, while missing all of one and more than half of two others.

don't get me wrong, i like the guy, both as a person (and probably as a teammate) as well as offensively and defensively on the field. but he has to be the guy on the field enough to earn that moniker.

Does anyone remember Rosenthal's penny pinching article from last spring? I wonder if Nats employees still can't use Fedex. Sorry I must admit that I doubt that the current group has spent more than MLB on things other than payroll. I really hope I am wrong. Further, even the much "ballyhooed" 40 million on the stadium may be suspect. I seem to recall an article in this paper that the Lerners had really only spent $10 million. Hopefully I hope that is still not case. I've also noticed that the quality of the materials used in the season ticket packages has declined.

The teams that are in the mix year after year are the teams that BOTH develop their farm system and sign free agents. To stick with just the farm system will produce the occasional flash in the pan season but nothing consistent. Anyway the next two years will be probably be enough to show whether the current ownership really are cheap or just prudent.

Zimmerman is really having trouble being the face of the franchise.

I'm rooting for the man, but hey, you can't force these things.

Nick is making a terrific come-back this year.

(3 K's for Perez)

231-The discussion is not where I can be a good GM, but rather if JimBo is doing a good job. I use hind sight to point out errors. It is Jimbo's Job to identify them before hand. Jimbo got loads of credit for Young...then he spent $10 Million on him which he should get the blame for. Jimbo is the GM not me. I did say all winter that Livo and Lohse should be signed but that is a whole different game and one that really has no point....What Stan and Jimbo do is the point....and it does not look good does it?

Think Lo Duca, Young ($10 Million), Lopez, Kearns, Boone, Not trading Chad, Not Trading Young, banking on the current starters to overachieve and burning out the bull pen.....

Be nice if you focused on what the GM and President have done, not fans.

eh? what are you talking about, dknatsfan? i thought this year's season ticket package was better and easier to deal with than last year's. certainly didn't see any decline i quality...

231, are you really Ted Lerner....just to cheap to sit in your own suite.....is their anything the Nats could do better?

whatever, jayb. that just turns you into the worst kind of fan, the kind that bashes management for not foreseeing things that pretty much nobody foresaw (and i'm speaking of kendall, here).

i'm not criticizing you for not being a good GM, i'm criticizing you for occasionally making ridiculous claims.

i've criticized bowden before. i don't think he's a great GM, and i wasn't thrilled he was retained. i was *really* hoping that cashman would have pissed off the steinbrenner clan and been canned. i can only hope for the double whammy that the young SPs for the yankees don't work out (yay for bad records for the yanks) and cashman gets fired cuz he didn't trade hughes et al for santana.

remember, just because i don't agree with you doesn't mean i agree with bowden.

that said, i *really* liked the milledge/dukes acquisitions.

i'm not lerner (altho i could use the wifi there to post here if i was while still sitting in my seats).

just because i didn't really like any of the FAs out there for this season's nats doesn't mean i'm cheap. and it doesn't mean i don't want to see this team eventually at a $100m salary level in the next few years. it just means i didn't want them to do it with rowand/hunter/silva/etc.

i think the most likely way this team increases payroll is to trade for guys who in situations like miguel cabrera or santana were in. guys who's salaries are increasing exponentially in arbitration and who will want huge FA contracts. the nats should be looking to trade for guys like that and signing them to long-term monster deals. that's the only way to get a player in their prime, nowadays, w/o bringing them up in your own system. teams lock up the best players they can afford to keep to long term deals before FA sets in.

most of what shows up in FA nowadays are players in their early 30s who want 7 year deals and who will be significantly underperforming at the end of their contracts. those are the guys you only sign if they fill the last perceived need on the way to a championship.

May 1.

I'm a little surprised Lenny Harris' name hasn't been besmirched yet in this thread. I guess it is still early.

231 - We are half way to $100 million right now......do you like the talent we have with that cash.  I think Jimbo has done a very poor job spending the first half of the $100 million.Do you think money saved now by not signing FA to 1-2 year deals somehow will be available later to sign players in 2010? 

4 innings, 4 K's. So far so good.

How bout some runs boys.

Thank you Austin.

Oh, thank you, Austin Ryan Kearns. Welcome to the 2008 season.

Recently I think the nats pitching has been getting better. Hanrahan has started to settled down. Our starters are giving us a chance to win every night, Lannan, Perez, Redding have given quality starts but the run support has not been there.

In the words of Crash Davis, we need a rainout.

The adjective is "Uggla"!

You know it's getting late when ...

Charlie and Dave sound drunk by the fourth inning.

Well, it's not like it has a "spend-by" date on it.

Why, what do you think happens to it?

**************
Do you think money saved now by not signing FA to 1-2 year deals somehow will be available later to sign players in 2010?

Posted by: JayB | April 20, 2008 2:21 PM

jayb, you ask the wrong questions (and you ask loaded questions designed to get the answers you want).

i'm disappointed in some of the performances so far this season, and some of the guys signed have not lived up to even the mediocre expectations (kearns, belliard, in particular, meathook).

but i do like some of the moves to get younger and with more talent in the OF. those moves ended up not being expensive as far as payroll goes, and i'm not going to say, "jimbo should have avoided making those deals because they didn't add to payroll" (see how i used the same kind of argument you have there? it's not a fair comment). essentially, i'm fine w/them putting 3 younger "upside" kids in their 4man OF rotation instead of paying big money for a 32 yr old tori hunter or a very overrated rowand.

i don't look at the team in terms of pure payroll. i look at the overall set of moves (which includes the moves they didn't make). i was fine with what they did this offseason, for the most part, considering what their options were.

Adjective for last night: Sloppy

btw, you're not going to change my mindset any more than i'll change yours, jayb. we have very different approaches. i do realize that.

Who is leading the team in RBIs? Is it not Kearns?

5 innings, 5 K's. Go Perez. Onto the dreaded 6th.

that a way odalis, getting just our 2nd hit of the game!

Johnson leads the team in RBIs with 12

I'm working on my second million dollars in the bank. The first one was too hard, so I skipped it.

Actual point being, the starting point isn't really zero, since they are obliged to field a team. MLB minimum is $400k, so x 25, the actual lowest possible player payroll, not counting the rest of the 40-man roster, is about $10M.

So halfway to $100M is really $55M.

>>>>>>>>>
231 - We are half way to $100 million right now

Posted by: JayB | April 20, 2008 2:21 PM

And before the bottom of the sixth starts, I'll say, who can blame Manny for being a little hesitant to go to the bullpen lately?

6 innings, 1 run, 2 hits, 7 Ks, 3bb.

"Smokin' OP!"

Odalis Perez Fan Club. He gets through the 6th. 7 K's.

Barry, it's getting late for our man Zimmerman.

Sorry Manny, but Zimmerman needs a day off.

milledge is nowhere near manny's "green light at 74%" numbers now. that makes it 2-4, right?

I'm not sure how much sense it makes for a struggling team to rest your two best hitters on the same day.

AHEM.

**************
The starters, except for Redding, have some ugly numbers, but in fact most of these losses are on the bullpen, which nobody expected to blow up in April, or the lack of hitting, which looked much more promising than it's delivered so far.
Posted by: CE | April 20, 2008 12:28 PM

Toooooot!

you mean all four starters (before hill yesterday) being under a 5 era is ugly? including today, perez is at 3.38 era (he was at 4.35 going into the game).

none of the starters are great, but there are a number of teams that would kill to have 4 starters with ERAs under 4.86 and two with ERAs under 3.5.

the only ugly number i see is innings per start, which is barely over 5.

not that i think our rotation is great or anything, while their numbers aren't the least bit sexy, they're not exactly ugly, either.

The point about Milledge is a good one and points to Acta not being in control.....from day one Milledge on the bases has been a mess. Acta should be doing a better job here. If Milledge does not know the signs or is ignoring them it still falls on Acta to do something. Seems Millidge has run into 5 outs already...more maybe?

There are too many posters on this blog who read "Moneyball" and now think they know everything about how to build a team. This drivel about only signing FAs when they are a "final piece" is a load of crap. If the Nats keep taking that approach they're never going to need a "final piece.". In 2011 you all are going to be talking about 2014.

i'd care more what you said if you signed a name to it.

oh, and i'm not a "moneyball" guy. that's only part of the picture, anyway. but thanks for thinking you have a clue as to why i think the way i do.

I liked the Milledge and Dukes moves as well 231 but not as an excuse not to also spend now on proven players. I would much rather a had a Tori Hunter in CF and a Millege in LF/RF with Dukes coming into LF 3 day or so. That OF is so much better than what they are calling our OF of the Future.....where is our CF coming from in 2010....Hunter would still be the best option no?

Damnit Nick and Felipe! This seems to be a recurring debate--to sign or not to sign? This past year's free agent class was weak and I think the Nats were wise to steer clear of people like Hunter, Roward, et al. This off-season offers some promising folk--Sabathia (if he doesnt sign an extension), Furcal (?), Orlando Hudson, Teixeira, Orlando Cabrera (him or Guz? he will be 34), Adam Dunn, maybe AJ Burnett (he has an option), Ben "DL" Sheets are probably the big names.

So play GM,,,what are the needs of the 09 Nats, who do you go after, and who is likely to sign? (sometimes we forget that just cuz someone is a FA doesnt mean they will sign, even if the money is good. I for one do not think Hunter would have opted for the Nats unless the money was obsurd).

This is brutal. This season has been brutal. It is hard to stomach Nick Johnson, of all people, striking out with one out and a man at third.

It isn't early. However, I will not be able to take another 9-25 start, because there is no guarantee that they will be able to recover like last year.

I don't like thinking wait 'til next year in April. We may see some of the minor league players early this year, if the team doesn't shake its funk.

I'm still with you though, Nats, whatever happens.

Guys,

The Nats pitchers have a lower era than the Marlins, Red Sox and Yankees. Once again, the league low .221 batting average is just unacceptable, despite the recent timely hits. This team has to hit better.

Also field better - Milledge.

i can't make that call, jayb. i don't know what the team's options will be in 09/10. we can look at FA potential, but we don't know what trades will be possible. if i'd have asked you last april who would be the team's CF now, would milledge have even been on your list? or even on your radar for *any* OF position for this team this year?

oh, and i don't think hunter will be much of a quality CF option in 2010.

walking the 9 hole to load the bases for hanley "nats killer" ramirez, probably not our best option there...

What a disaster! This team has many more problems other than starting pitching.

omg. kill me.

I don't expect the relief to do what it did last year, but so far this year they are doing nothing.

As much as that hurt, hearing Charlie say the ball hit Cantu in "the buttocks" was rather amusing.

Ouch!!!! I thought we were meant to be slightly better than the Marlins this year.

looks like the theme of the year is keep it close until the 8th/9th innings and then lose by a lot...

I've officially reached stage 4:

4. Depression: "I'm so sad, why bother with anything?"

Finding ever more demoralizing ways to lose.

Come home guys, the Pope blessed the clubhouse....

When does Hanley Ramirez become a free agent..wow. Of course I would have rather seen a grand slam than the debacle that was that wild pitch.

Bottom of the 8th Inning...

I give up! Someone has to do something. Don't lecture me on patience. This is not acceptable. Fire Bowden! Fire Lenny Harris! Someone! The season is lost and we are not even finished with the first month.

Maybe DC should have used the $611 million to get the Redskins back in the city.

Please provide some proof that Tori Hunter WANTED to come to the Nats, and that the only reason he did not was because Nats' management would not make it happen. You're saying that, given equal offers from the Angels and the Nats, he would have picked the Nats? If so, he would have been a national laughingstock. You're basing this whole thing on an offhand remark where Hunter said he would not rule out the Nats. Players do that for leverage, especially when the Red Sox and Yankees are out of the running, and it appears that the Nats have deep pockets. When asked the question, which he was, there was no reason to say, "No, I'd never go to the Nats."

It's just crazy to think that a player of his stature would choose to end his career with a team that is clearly in rebuilding mode. He also wanted to stay in the AL.

He would have more likely stayed with the Twins.

Nats' management has made some questionable moves (like re-signing Young, which you all probably thought was genius at the time), but this is not one of them.

despite recent heroics, RZ and AK are still challenging the Menzoza line. Oh, and btw, NJ is hitting .255.

another nats loss in the books.

signs of hope in this one?
another strong start for odalis
kearns hit a homer
thats about it.

Last year's team-despite predictions of being one of the worst in baseball history-showed heart and played above their ability. This is a different team. It is a better team on paper. It makes me ill. Do they care? When will someone show some emotion and get frustrated!!!

This is disgusting. Time to turn some people on their heads:

Bowden! Trading Schneider and CHurch for Milledge now looks like we got hosed again. Lopez and Good God Kearns remain an awful idea. Kearns has NO TRADE value now.

Zimmerman: Time to get off yer azz young man! Your hitting slumps and lack of aggression are killing us.

St. Clair: Are you kidding me? How does this guy continue to have a job?

Bob Carpenter: Call these guys out! Stop making excuses!

Verizon: Where the hell is my MASN HD?

I have gone beyond sighing or whimpering. I am just numb at this point. I remember the same thing happening early in the season last year, when I started listening and even calling into our minor league games.

The one difference is that last year the minor league teams were desperately poor, as well. Vermont hadn't started its excellent season yet, nor the lowest possible level DSL teams, one of which won the Dominican championship.

This year the P-Nats are having an awesome start, and many of the pitchers are having great years so far. I am not so sure that I'd be too excited about Marrero, Burgess or Maxwell yet.

Anyhow, find solace where you can.

8 errors in 4 games; they are really starting to make a push.

No way that Hunter comes to a team that is actually getting worse - deconstructing not rebuilding. I do have hope we can sign him to a minor league contract when he is 40-42.

Based on what is in the farm system now and the lack of any current serious trading prospects, I dread to think about next year.

"jayb, you ask the wrong questions (and you ask loaded questions designed to get the answers you want)."

JayB doesn't ask loaded questions, he asks questions while loaded. There is a difference there.

torches torches torches ...
pitchforks pitchforks pitchforks ...

It's still early, timewise, in the season, but that doesn't mean St. Manny can't shuffle the lineup more and/or give seriously slumping stalwarts a day off.

Seems whenever Estrada or Lo Duca call the games, or come in on substitutions, the pitching goes down the toilet.

Where's O's Exec? I'm gonna praise his team. They played very well last night against the Yankees, who seemed quite flat in all aspects of their game.

I thought he asked loded questions ...

This is so pathetic, even *I* feel sorry for you guys.

As fans---when are going to say enough! I guess I should just go to the Red Loft or sing karaoke at the Nats Park---

You could have gold bullion at Nats Park and now one is going to come to these games--The team has to show that they care--call some people out!!!

That includes Zim--who has no business hitting 3rd...sorry, bro. And if I have to hear Carp say how dangerous Willy Mo is I'm going to throw up--he is hitting .115!

Well, I was thinking of the 3 (all Redding) -10 record for (now) 18 starts, not to gainsay your point here.

************
you mean all four starters (before hill yesterday) being under a 5 era is ugly? including today, perez is at 3.38 era (he was at 4.35 going into the game).
none of the starters are great, but there are a number of teams that would kill to have 4 starters with ERAs under 4.86 and two with ERAs under 3.5.
the only ugly number i see is innings per start, which is barely over 5.
not that i think our rotation is great or anything, while their numbers aren't the least bit sexy, they're not exactly ugly, either.
Posted by: 231 | April 20, 2008 3:16 PM

Hahahahahahahaha, Dr. Tobias Funke. That's the first laughter I've had since about one hour ago. Good show, good show.

I said some very, very unkind things about this team and their abilities to my red-headed, Cubs-fan girlfriend earlier, lest anyone think I'm delusional and don't see what's going on. But as I am positive, even without reading the comments that these items have already been extremely well documented here, I won't repeat them.

Instead: how about that starting pitching? They're looking fine, don't you think?

The starting pitching is the one bright spot right now. I dread it when the bullpen comes in. (Wil Nieves is another bright spot, too. That's about it.)

To clarify, I'm laughing at the reference to Arrested Development. I didn't really pay attention to the comments, they felt a little par for the course.

Yeah, but are there any who would trade a Ramirez or Tulowizski for 2 or 4 of them?
*********

none of the starters are great, but there are a number of teams that would kill to have 4 starters with ERAs under 4.86 and two with ERAs under 3.5.
Posted by: 231 | April 20, 2008 3:16 PM

Nieves is a bright spot?? He has as many hits as I do

His defense, not his offense.

Yeah the starting pitching is great---come on! We've lowered the expectations so low--that bad is good...yeah the pitching is better--But when are we going to start EXPECTING our starters to go six. It should be the standard. We haven't been spoiled with stellar starts...we've just been watching Micah Bowie and Mike Bacsik and don't know better!

It's no longer early on April 23rd, when the Nationals return to a blessed Nats Park to face Santana.

I'll be there with my red curly W hat on my head and a bowl of Ben's in my hand. I've waiting too long for this to consider it early. It's time to start getting it done.

Free agents almost always sign the biggest deal that they're offered. This "he wouldn't have signed here" bs is just more loser nonsense from some of you "fans" who think there's only one way to win or who for some reason secretly want the Nats to be the new Pirates.

i *said* they weren't great. i didn't say other teams would trade their best players for them...

there are plenty of things that haven't gone well for the team so far this year. starting pitching, which should have been the biggest question mark, has been the only part that's come through so far. saying that is a far cry from overrating our SPs.

So they'd kill for it, but wouldn't trade for it. Fair enough.

there are a number of teams that would kill to have 4 starters with ERAs under 4.86 and two with ERAs under 3.5.
Posted by: 231 | April 20, 2008 3:16 PM

that was me, btw

(but do you think Manny would make that deal in a heartbeat?

Hey, no one take your eye off the ball. Our farm system is tearing it up. That's still the goal, to grow a deep system from which we can trade prospects, call up prospects, and go for free agents just to fill holes.

Man, this is disappointing, but it's a sideshow.

you missed the point i was making, CE. they'd kill for their SPs to be pitching that well right now. not they'd kill to have our rotation.

our rotation is probably pitching a little better than they should. a lot of teams' rotations are pitching a lot worse than they should (see: detroit tigers, for example). that doesn't mean the teams want to trade rotations (nor am i suggesting it), just that they'd like their teams to be performing better.

What is the stage reached when it becomes even money whether to watch the Nats or clean the house?

"Shaky Strenth?"--hmmm may have to rephrase the second word.

I have a lot of regrets this afternoon, one of them is not cleaning the house.

Mr. Anonymous, you fit in well here. The "almost" you stuck in there backs up my point, as in "almost" except when you don't want to end your career playing for a team that's rebuilding, and has no chance of going to the post-season.

Frank Robinson should still be the manager, too, right?

I don't really have much to say about todays game except, we really needed to win it. We're 5-14 right now and we get Hudson, Smoltz and Johan next.....gulp!

Note to Manny: Call up Levale Speigner, we're gonna need him.

i am a big lastings milledge fan. however he did something today which really gives me pause.

with 1 outand the score tied 1-2 in the 7th, milledge singled. every1 in the place knew this was a running situation. so youve got to stay close for a couple of pitches to see the pitchers move cause you know hes gonna throw over to first.

so what does milledge do? he takes off on the first pitch and gets caught in a rundown when the pitcher olson fires over to first.

any novice would know to stay close to the bag and wait for a couple of throws and maybe a pitch or 2. any1 with any baseball head would know this.
so milledge taking off really makes me wonder about whats going on in this guys mind and how smart he really is. this just blew me away.

mike8 you never know until you try. You probably would have said that the Mets never would have traded us Milledge for Schneider and Church either before it happened. The Cubs were "rebuilding" in 07 also, seems not to have bothered the free agents they threw money at and who won them a division. You think Gil Meche wouldn't have signed here instead of KC? I guess he wanted to go to a team that wasn't rebuilding and had a chance to go to the postseaon, right?

What's your plan? Wait until 2011 and then start dreaming about 2014 when the team is still losing?

This is entirely emotional, which I haven't felt comfortable doing for a long time on this blog given how emotional and non-rational it gets sometime. Fell free to flay me if you think it's hypocritical to do this.

I miss Meat Hook. I don't think anyone smiles like he did anymore or just oozes love for playing. I hope he gets better soon and we get to see some of his voodoo fingers with that big old smile again, no matter how much he weighs. I could tolerate losing with such big heart.

"The Cubs were "rebuilding" in 07 also, seems not to have bothered the free agents they threw money at and who won them a division."

I hope all teams can rebuild this way and give us two sandwich picks in the draft while they're at it!

A draft miss for the Nats...Giants called up former Wilson High star Emmanuel Burriss today...congrats to him. First DCPS player in the bigs in a LONG time.

Don't put words in my mouth, anonymous. I'm not talking about Gil Meche or Milledge. Gil Meche would certainly go to whoever gives him the most money, because he's no good. I'm talking about Tori Hunter -- a guy who wants to win a World Championship. What's so hard to understand?

My plan is to develop a good farm system, stock it with good young players, like some successful teams like the Backs and Rocks have done, and fill in gaps with free agents when the time comes.

506
Levale Speigner is on the DL in Harrisburg.

It's not too early, it's too late! Where is the run support?

My silver lining, GHF attempt: late is when you are leading the division with 17 games left to play and then blow it down the stretch in September, as the Mets did last year. The Nats weren't expected to contend this year. Which is not to say that some of these losses haven't been frustrating. But I'm behind the team no matter what.

Apparently, it's never too early for bush league play. Nor too late. Enjoy!

Not really, it's Jeeves. There's no problem. I'm seeing the ball well, getting good wood on it.
Yeah right, like practically everyone else in the lineup. I've always been one of the most optimistic Nat's fan. But there is something about the attitude here that's getting to me and I don't mean mine or the rther bloggers.

Mike8, it's easy for you to say that Meche is no good. Except of course he's better than any starters the Nats have right now. You think the Nats wouldn't have taken Meche and his 200+ IP and strong ERA last year? Maybe sign Lilly too and the Nats don't have the most overworked 'pen last year and they don't now have a closer with potentially a dead arm. Were you counting on that closer for your championship team, or to at least trade him to help stock your farm system with some of those good young players? Whoops, better rethink that...

Plus, you do realize that Meche was a first-round draft pick? You realize the Nats would be lucky to have one of Detwiler, Smoker, Zimmermann or McGeary ever do as well as or better than Meche? Of course, you are probably planning on all of those guys becoming all-stars, since the Nats' draft picks all crap gold and the other teams' picks stink.

The ignorant smugness of many on this board is amazing.

irony... ah, irony.

And all of those free agents helped the Cubbies to avoid the possibility of a century of futility by advancing through the playoffs and winning the series for them and - oh wait, right, that didn't happen.

...to the white courtesy phone, please

i'm sure derrek lee, zambrano, ramirez, rich hill, wuertz, dempster, howry, and theriot had nothing to do with the cubs' resurgance. it was all about the 2-3 FAs they signed.

No one is saying that the Nats could have won the East last year. The point is that they could have and should have done something to make themselves better. And that they actually made themselves worse for the long term and set back "The Plan" by overworking and potentially blowing out their bullpen. Not to mention ownership's obligation to fans to at least try to field a competitive team every year.

Just because you all read "Moneyball" and some articles last October about the Diamondbacks and Rockies doesn't mean you know how to build a baseball team. And if it was so inevitable that the Nats couldn't have done anything to improve the team the past two years, why are so many of you so distraught about how horribly the team is playing now? It was inevitable, right? Plus you should all be happy, since it means the Nats will get a higher draft pick in 09--maybe that guy will be the cornerstone of the 2014 Plan, huh?

seems to me that you, oh anonymous one, are far more obsessed by moneyball than anyone else here.

and you haven't seen *me* be "distraught."

of course, i use a handle, so you would know if it was me.

dk:

I agree with you about the seeming lack of (baseball) sense in Milledge. Also, in Guzman. And Lopez, and Pena.. It seems that Bowden's acquisitions are made by looking at batting stats and not at whether the athletes understand how to play the game. Way too many gaffes, every day.

If this team represents a placeholder until the day that minor-league prospects can fill the key positions, then I hope that the prospects are being thoroughly grounded in basic baseball. We do not need more Bowden-type phenoms who have not mastered the fundamentals.

That said, it is remarkable to watch MLB players execute a run-down. Few do it correctly. The preferred (Earl Weaver) way is to do it with one throw and one throw only. I've only seen it done right once this year (it wasn't Nats players who did it). So the current occupants of the Nats roster are not the only MLB players lacking in baseball fundamentals.

Year in and year out, it is the well-coached teams that are a pleasure to watch, no matter whether they make the playoffs. The big surprise--and disappointment--to me this year is how poorly coached the Nats are. What has happened to the coaching?

231 I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt by mentioning moneyball, I'll drop it though, I'm not obsessed by it. Maybe I should have just realized that you must have been a Pirates fan and are used to pulling for a loser and perpetual rebuilding programs. So can you give me one reason (more if you have them) why you believe the Lerners shouldn't have signed Meche or Lilly, or both, last year. Or how about Livan or Lohse this year.

can't have a civilized discussion, eh? wouldn't want to make a comment without an underlying dig at someone else? do you presume nobody's opinion but your own is valid (even if you won't sign your name)?

if i knew who you were, and if i'd seen you saying the team should sign meche 18 months ago, then i'd worry about that comment. but since i don't know who you are and if you were one of the very few people out there campaigning for a big contract for meche *anywhere* (the royals took a *lot* of heat for that contract), then more power to you. but i doubt you were.

i'm not going to judge livan or lohse until at least august. they may look good right now, but so did ramon ortiz last year in april. a handful of starts isn't enough to judge.

that said, i had no interest in livan. that time has passed. he hasn't been all that good since 2005. i might have found lohse to be a good acquisition at the price he signed with st louis. but all the way up til then, it looked like he wanted a lot more money and more years, at which price i didn't find him interesting. dunno if the nats were ever involved there.

lilly? maybe. i wouldn't have hated the signing, but he wasn't exactly burning up the league before that. and despite his great year last year, this year he's just the opposite of the starts that livan and lohse have gotten off to.

so, out of those four, without any hindsight of knowing what their years ended up looking like (i.e., just looking at who they were going into FA), one maybe (lilly) and one "only at the bargain price st louis got". dunno if he'd have signed here for that (or slightly more) or whether he turned the team down if offered.

it's a whole lot easier *after* you've seen someone turn their career around to say "we should have signed him!" you think there weren't a few teams out there last year who had poor 1B production who hated on their teams for not realizing that pena would break out (40+ HRs in tampa) or that dmitri would come back here?

i realize it's a lot more *fun* to speculate knowing what actually happened, but that's just not the way baseball teams are built. you have to make the educated guesses *before* you know what they'll do.

So can you give me one reason (more if you have them) why you believe the Lerners shouldn't have signed Meche or Lilly, or both, last year.

Posted by: | April 20, 2008 7:07 PM
------------------------
Meche:
2004: 7-7, 5.01 ERA, 127.2 IP
2005: 10-8, 5.09 ERA, 143.1 IP
2006: 11-8, 4.48 ERA, 186.2 IP

Lilly:
2004: 12-10, 4.06 ERA, 197.1 IP
2005: 10-11, 5.56 ERA, 126.1 IP
2006: 15-13, 4.31 ERA, 181.2 IP

Anon ... you're right. If the Nats signed either or both of them based on these stats, they'd be World Champs by now.

231, As JayB said way back in this post, I'm not trying to *be* Kasten and Bowden, I'm criticizing them. You crack me up in requiring fans to out-guess the people who are paid to run the team as some sort of prerequisite to criticize management. I don't need to have said "sign Lilly" 18 months ago in order to criticize Stan and JimBo for doing nothing to improve the pitching. They are the guys who are paid to make educated guesses *before* they know what the players will do. Other teams made those educated guesses, the Nats sat on their butts. I agree with you that it is difficult to make those guesses, but it is ridiculous to suggest that that means that the team shouldn't even try, which is what it sounds like you are saying. Especially when the Nats are as bad as they are.

And for the last time for those of you who have not gotten it yet, I am NOT saying that signing any of these free agents would have brought the Nats a championship, or even a division title. I do think they would have made them more competitive, which is a valid reason to sign them by itself. Also, in the spirit of THE PLAN, I think they would have helped save the bullpen last year, and this year. The relief pitchers the Nats currently have are, by all accounts, part of The Plan, and they are being horribly overworked. That sets back The Plan. Cordero's arm may be dead, and even if he can still pitch, his trade value has gone way down as a result of his struggles. Hopefully no others end up with blown out arms.

And for those of you who want me to have a name, I've adopted one. Lerners are Cheap has had the right idea with some posts recently, so I am basing my name on his with a twist. I hope LAC won't mind me considering myself an LAC follower. After this post I will call myself LACBCAE.

i believe you when you say you aren't advocating that those guys would bring us a championship. it gets tough to have discussions when there are multiple people discussing multiple positions.

i criticize you for bringing up names like meche, but you're the one who brought him up. lilly is probably a much more valid name to bring up, since he actually had some success previously (AL east is much tougher on pitching).

and while i get your comment that it's not your job to be GM, the reason i take issue is when you bring up specific names of guys who outplayed expectations as evidence of guys we should have signed. i mean, we'd have been better off signing pena last year than meathook, too. a lot of teams missed on pena, meathook, meche... it's an inexact science.

now i understand your position that they should have done more to make the team competitive. and while i prefer building from the farm system first before delving into the high-priced FA market, i understand that not everyone wants to see it done that way. honestly, there's no "one way" to do it. and any great team, especially long-term great teams, are built through both. the question comes down to how do you mix the two of them together.

Well said LACBCAE. Building a farm system is great, but the Nats probably need a couple of more years of decent drafting before we get to the point that the farm is really helping the Nats. I fear that the ownership will use the "plan" as an excuse to avoid spending money on free agents. Why not, they are good businessmen who naturally want to make a profit. Winning teams are too expensive.

I would be interested in the Washington Post doing a story on just how much the current owners really spent on the stadium. I just have this sinking feeling that it is less than the 40 or 60 million figure you see bandied about.

I was going to take some time to look up Meche's stats, which show that there's no reason to think that this year he'll be any better than, say, Odalis Perez or Tim Redding. So thanks to some other posters for doing it for me. Anonymous, I know as much as I need to know about Gil Meche.

I also know that not all draft picks will work out. And I never said the Nats should not sign any free agents, the whole discussion started when I said that there was zero change that Hunter would have signed with the Nats over the Angels. I'd be happy if he was playing for them right now, but it's fantasy to think that he'd go to a bad team like the Nats. If you want to keep kidding yourself and looking at each game from the angle of how the Nats would do if Hunter was playing for them, go for it.

you probably didn't think arod was heading to the rangers, either, mike8. sometimes money talks. and i don't think tori hunter's comments about working with the african american population in DC was purely posturing.

that said, i also don't think he'd have been a good signing for the nationals. he's the kind of guy who belongs on a team that is on the cusp, or trying to stay on top. not a team in the midst of a rebuilding effort. he would have helped the team, no doubt, but his contract would have been painful in 2-3 years. and that's when we'll hopefully be signing the next guy who's similar to tori hunter. or so i hope. i hope the front office and ownership won't prove me wrong, but i won't judge them on it until they don't do it then.

lerners are cheap. thanks for the 5-14 record. peter angelos all over again.

and kearns still stinks.

except angelos spent a whole lot of money for those crappy records.

Always pleased to see that others agree with me on this issue, LACBCAE. I wouldn't agree that you are a "follower" however.

As to the 9:18 post, that was not me. I suppose it's inevitable that others might use my moniker since it's a truism.

Steven on Cap. Hill -

I agree with everything you said, EXCEPT that Nick Johnson couldn't fetch valuable prospects. Perhaps not right now (18 games in), but by the deadline when a team could use a hitter like NJ (who couldn't?) and is on the verge of contending.

Bowden has a way of suprising us when we least expect it.
_____________

We'll see. If we can get a good young player or better yet two for Nick, great, do it. I'm all for that. Maybe we will. But I think we're getting a little crazy to think that flipping Nick will solve all our problems.

Setting aside my feeling that teams will stay away because of his health problems alone, there just isn't much demand for a guy like him. Look at who plays 1B around the league. Nick probably isn't even in the top half. I have 11 1Bs that I think are indisputably superior to Nick: Pujols, Fielder, Tex, Howard, Adrian Gonzalez, Berkman, DLee, Carlos Pena, Youkilis, Helton, Konerko. Then factoring age, long-term high-end, and current performance I'd also rather have Loney, Carlos Guillen, Delgado, or Adam LaRoche. Then you have a bunch of teams that have young guys like Ryan Garko, Daric Barton, Kotchman, Conor Jackson, Joey Votto, etc. Those teams aren't going to be interested in Nick.

Who's left? Is Nick really that big an upgrade over Sexson or Overbay or Giambi/Duncan? Maybe. I'd say he's better than Jacobs, Millar, and whoever the Royals and Giants are trotting out there, but why would those teams give up prospects? They won't. OK Sabean might, but we better hurry cuz he's bound to get fired one of these days. Delgado's struggling so maybe Omar will get impatient and look to make a deal, but didn't they just evacuate 4 out of their top 5 prospects for Johan (and forget FMart)? What's left there? And are they really going to give up on Delgado?

That's pretty much every 1B in baseball--not a ton of obvious trading partners for Nick.

So then is a team really going to give up valuable prospects just to get a bat for their bench? Nah. Maybe an AL team like the Twins or the Mariners decide to make room by moving their 1B to DH, but do those teams really want to move prospects to try to win now? Maybe Seattle, but only cuz Bavasi's an idiot and seems to actually think he's close to winning now. Among the other AL contenders there aren't many teams that would be any better off with NJ than who they're DH-ing now. Certainly not Boston, NY, Detroit, or Cleveland. Anaheim doesn't have enough ABs to go around as it is (and Stoneman never trades prospects), and who else?

Maybe someone will get hurt. That's probably our best chance, but to complain NOW that we should have ALREADY moved NJ for prospects? That doesn't make any sense. Teams are at least going to insist on seeing him play a month or 2 before even taking calls.

btw, whoever put up that soriano number put up the wrong number. the last 5 years of his deal are $18m/per.

07:$9M, 08:$13M, 09:$16M, 10-14:$18M annually
___________

Thanks for the correction. I just quickly looked up what he's getting this year, and I forgot how that contract escalates. you're right--10 a year would be a steal for him, even if you do have to employ him at that rate 2-3 years into retirement.

Mike8 you can say that all you want, but the fact is that there were starters out there both last year and this year who are better than any of the reclamation projects and refuse bin pickups who Kasten and Bowden have thrown out there. Meche pitched far better last season than any pitcher on the Nats. Identifying guys is Stan and JimBo's job, they get paid a lot of money to do it. It would be far better to try and fail than not try at all. Instead, they did nothing and insulted the fans with the awful pitchers they put out there. And they overworked their bullpen to boot.

Those were my curiously long posts.

Meche clearly would have helped us. Lilly too. And we have the money for it. But I think that first off-season just a couple months after the new owners signed the papers were a lost off season. Maybe that's too charitable, but I just never thought there was a chance we'd play in that FA class. Just seems prudent to take a little time to see what the finances of the team will look like before making salary commitments of $50-100m. So I tend to evaluate us as having really 1 draft and 1 off-season since we escaped being owned and operated by and for the benefit of our 29 opponents.

Re: Nick. I forgot Morneau. He's a little better than NJ I'd say. So that's for sure 12, and probably more like 20-21 teams that are better off with what they have now than we are with Nick.

WelI it's this simple: Fire Bowden. Lopez stinks. Kearns is awful. Willy Mo is lousy. Lo Duca is over hill. Estrada is FAT, FAT. And it goes on and on and on. Mistakes too many to count. Here's one for you: Do you think any of the starting 25-man roster could make the Yankees or Red Sox roster? You decide. The new stadium is lovely. It's like buying a new house, with no furniture. Fire Bowden. If you don't, fire Kasten, too. Manny, you're on the hook next year. Time to light a fire under these guys, call up the kids from Richmond, and start planning next year. Can you say 110 loses, 'cause it's coming.... The Lerners are smart people. But it looks like they're getting a bill of goods from Kasten, Bowden, et al. Let's make some changes now. Before this turns into a complete disaster.
Try this, at $20K for season tix plus parking, I don't wanna wait until next year.

"call up the kids from Richmond"

Uhm, we don't have a team in Richmond...

WHOA! SO THAT's what I've been doing wrong all this time! RICHMOND. Why didn't we think of that?

Not sure if we could even beat Richmond at this point

On further reflection, I've decided that Randycop was also denigrating our farm system. If you're going to trash the club, you might as well go for perfection. Well done, Randycop!

We do but you can't have any of our kids.

---

"call up the kids from Richmond"

Uhm, we don't have a team in Richmond...

Here's one for you: Do you think any of the starting 25-man roster could make the Yankees or Red Sox roster?

____________________________

I doubt any Nats could make the Phils, Braves, or Mets either. Oh wait, 2 of our guys are already on the Mets, my bad.

that's *IT*! we just need to call up the braves' prospects from richmond!

Me, too. It's for damsure nobody in that clubhouse is enjoying life much these days, and man, does it show.

And while we're at it, an anecdote for Manny, on busting some chops in the clubhouse. http://tinyurl.com/3pdqaj

****************
I miss Meat Hook. I don't think anyone smiles like he did anymore or just oozes love for playing.

Posted by: Section 506 (Before moving) | April 20, 2008 4:58 PM

It's like Alexander the Great, when he just sliced the knot instead of untying it! Nevermind trades, just call up other teams' prospects, and circumvent the whole system. Of course, we'd need a pretty good antitrust lawyer to pull that off, anybody know of one in the area who's also familiar with baseball?

***************
WHOA! SO THAT's what I've been doing wrong all this time! RICHMOND. Why didn't we think of that?

Posted by: Jim B | April 20, 2008 10:30 PM

Watch this, next year they WILL have a team in Richmond, but have to be calling up the same old same old anyway.

A message from your friends at NatsNerds:
http://tinyurl.com/53hwy6

Why aren't the Nats following the Marlins model? At least they've won 2 WS in 11 years. In the last 30 years, the Phils, Mets, and Braves have won only 3 combined

Why aren't the Nats following the Marlins model? At least they've won 2 WS in 11 years. In the last 30 years, the Phils, Mets, and Braves have won only 3 combined

Posted by: SwiftIt | April 20, 2008 10:57 PM

-----

And only had 11,000 tickets sold on a beautiful Sunday afternoon. The Nats haven't dipped that low this year.

Yeah you're right. I still think it's funny that they have 2 recent banners though. And the Cubs sell out almost every game, even on the road, and haven't won in 100 years. Go figure

Agreed, it amuses me to know end. It's like the perfect validation of moneyball... and it's a flop.

Due to my own overwhelming gloominess at being last place... ugh, LAST PLACE, WORST IN BASEBALL... I decided to revive an old tradition, the Games Back/Ahead chart, which compares the Nats to every other team in baseball. As a reminder, these standings only matter to us (though this year I think "us" is going to be a more self-selecting crew, there's nowhere near last season's unanimity, which is probably good). Don't take them too seriously, but I think you'll not be so disappointed. As before, they only count teams that are within five games of us.

30. Nats, 5-14 (.263) -
29. Detroit, 6-3 (.316), 1
26. Cleveland, 7-12 (.368), 2
26. Texas, 7-12 (.368), 2
26. Houston, 7-12 (.368), 2
24. Pittsburgh, 7-11 (.389), 2.5
24. Dodgers, 7-11 (.389), 2.5
21. Tampa Bay, 8-11 (.421), 3
21. Cinci, 8-11 (.421), 3
21. San Francisco, 8-11 (.421), 3
17. Minnesota, 9-10 (.474), 4
17. Philadelphia, 9-10 (.474), 4
17. San Diego, 9-10 (.474), 4
17. Kansas City, 9-10 (.474), 4
13. Yankees, 10-10 (.500), 4.5
13. Seattle, 10-10 (.500), 4.5
13. Atlanta, 9-9 (.500), 4.5
13. Colorado, 9-9 (.500), 4.5
12. Toronto, 10-9 (.526), 5

That's right, over half of baseball is within five games of us. In fact, a winning record is within five games of us. If we go on a five game winning streak, we're suddenly looking at one of the better teams in baseball. I think this kind of goes to Barry's question above, "is it still early?" This morning, I said no, but any time you have a winning percentage of .263 and only need five wins to be above .500, IT'S EARLY.

I think the concern around here, more accurately, is that this caliber play will continue throughout the year. It's not too early to get heads in the game and stop making careless - or too careful - mistakes. No more not thinking or over-thinking, just play ball.

any time you have a winning percentage of .263 and only need five wins to be above .500, IT'S EARLY.
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I flunked math, but I think a 5 game winning streak would make us 10-14, not .500

I flunked math, but I think a 5 game winning streak would make us 10-14, not .500

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Oh! We're doomed.

My Predictions

Lenny Harris is gone by May 1, 2008 replaced by Barry Larkin

Tim Tolman reassigned to Minor League Development by October 3, 2008

Jimbo Fired by October 5, 2008

Acta Fired by June 1, 2010

So much for having a core of great pieces and chemistry in place Stan.

It is becoming clear that our Spring Training season was a waste of time. Fundamentals in baserunning were not learned. Situational hitting may have been discussed only on bus rides. Arm injuries of pitchers were masked. Outfield shagging of flies must have been forgotten. Accurate throws to home from the outfield are not even on a high school level. It appears that there were a lot of assumptions made in Spring Training that are making fools of the ones who made them. Or is this team thinking that the calendar is still reading February 1?

This discussion about the signing of free agents is becoming ridiculous. Referred to pitchers by noname or whatever he/she wishes to call itself, would have made practically no difference in the Nats standings at this point, even with, in a couple of cases, said pitchers surprisingly good starts. The Nat's bullpen, which most of us considered a strength, has turned out to be terrible so far. The offense has been practically non existent and maybe a Hunter would have made a big difference. But, I, for one, thought Zim, Kearns, and the bench would be doing much better. On paper that was so. I have to admit, I do not know what is going on because there appear to be so many negative factors happening all at once. But one thing I'm convinced of is two of the FAs out there wouldn't have changed much.
Of course, I've been one who has wished all along that they'd play the kids. I questioned the LoDuca and Estrada signings, two or three of the bench players they picked up at the expense of others (read Whitney), and wonder about the effectiveness of Harris as a hitting coach. To wish that 'things were better' would be an understatement.

Jeeves you don't get it. Perhaps the bullpen would not have turned out to be "terrible so far" if it was not the most overworked bullpen in baseball the past couple years? Can you say "burned out"? How about "dead arm"? Look at the appearances for Cordero, Rauch, Rivera the last couple years.

Why you would want to play "kids" who aren't ready for the big leagues and introduce them to this culture of losing is beyond me. That is exactly how to undermine their development and set back "The Plan.". Sometimes signing some decent free agents as a stopgap is helpful to a long-term rebuilding plan. Of course, if you don't get it, you don't get it.

Dale- This is the problem I see with Acta. He does not pick the players, but it is his job to coach fundamentals. It is clear that he did not do this this spring. I think this is because he was told he could do no wrong, he fell in love with increased "tools". If I hear one more time "Milledge is young and he is still learning"......come on Manny that is your job and you have had two months to make some progress.

I'm also wondering about Spring Training.

Didn't Manny pretty much give Zim the whole spring training off, saying he's always ready? Ahem.

And it seemed like every spring training game was a tryout for the B,C, and D squads. I don't think the current roster played a game together more than 3 times.

Yay - the first GB/A standings! Thanks, 506. From the Great Minds Think Alike Dept. - this a.m. as I drank my coffee I perused the MLB standings and put a tick mark next to teams that had only one or two more wins than us. It would take 9 wins to reach .500, I think, but it would take fewer than that to catch some of the teams in the GB/A standings (I accidentally typed "last" for "list" there on first drafting this - paging Dr. Freud to the white courtesy phone).

NatsNut, didn't Zim also have to take the spring easy because of his hamate surgery?

LACBCAE, two questions for you:

1. Do you think the loss of two draft picks (or is it just losing one and the other is a freebie?) is worth signing the Type A free agents you want?

2. How is the burning out of the bullpen - presumably last year, since it is way too soon to burn out this year - the fault of the Lerners who had only three or four months to create a new baseball operation and then pick the right players to sign? Or, if it is their fault, how do we know it wasn't simple baseball ignorance instead of cheapness?

...and in the second draft I replaced "list" with "standings." I think that I need more coffee...see you later...

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...but it would take fewer than that to catch some of the teams in the GB/A standings (I accidentally typed "last" for "list" there on first drafting this - paging Dr. Freud to the white courtesy phone).

Any time, natsfan1a, I thought of you when I was working on it. "Well, I know at least ONE other person who will be happy to see this..."

It's really not as bad as it feels. Even just two wins in a row could really catapult us up the list.

If he did, they sure didn't say so. He said he didn't hit in the off season but he was fine by spring training.

Manny said several times, IIRC, that he didn't play him because he was always ready and didn't need to worry about him. And someone, can't remember who, referenced Manny not burning him out in ST.
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NatsNut, didn't Zim also have to take the spring easy because of his hamate surgery?

Posted by: Section 506 (Before moving) | April 21, 2008 8:45 AM

Last year was a successful profitable season. We hope to make at least 60 million this year. First I just want to thank all the DC businesses who are paying extra to give me a free stadium. Second I want to thank all the chumps - er fans who continue to give me money to come see the Nats - the worst team in baseball. Don't worry my family will periodically engage in a little noblesse oblige by a giving a paltry $40,000 to some foundation. And I will spend just enough to keep everyone hoping.

JayB--

I hate to admit this but I am finding myself agreeing with you more and more.

One also wonders how much of this roster was was set by the second week of Spring Training? I am still scratching my head over Mackowiac. The starting pitching seemed to be the only thing in flux, mostly due to injuries.

LACB>>>

I don't think that the bullpen has dead arms except for Cordero. There seems to be other issues involved perhaps starting with the absence of Schneider and Flores (i.e. familiarity between the catchers and pitchers), although Nieves has been impressive. The issues with the bullpen seem to be control issues and pitch calling issues plus throwing the ball right over the middle of the plate, belt high.

Section 506:

1. It would only be 1 draft pick, and it would be a second round pick since the Nats are a bottom 15 team. In any case that assumes the free agent is a Type A, which I'm not sure is the case--if it's Type B, then the Nats don't lose a pick. Yes, I think losing a second round draft pick is worth signing a proven major league player given the huge uncertainties of prospect development.

2. Bowden has been the GM of this team since late 2004. His baseball operations were up and running, nothing needed to be "created.". They sat on their butts and did nothing. And I'm not just talking about one year anyway. Overwork leading to burnout can be cumulative: the bullpen was overworked this year, and it is sure looking like it will be overworked again this year. Whether you want to attribute that to cheapness or ignorance, or perhaps even arrogance (we're so damn smart that we know we can throw any old starters out there and they'll be just as good) doesn't really matter to me. In any case, it is inexcusable.

On the free agents, I thought you were opposed to the Odalis Perez, Paul Lo Duca, and Johnny Estrada signings. You were advocating Lohse and Hunter, as I recall. Aren't they both Type A? I would prefer to have the extra draft pick, because one more pick is one more chance at gold, which is better than guaranteed brass in my mind. But I don't mind free agents that don't loose us picks.

I misunderstood your point about bullpen arms. I thought you were saying that the bullpen was burnout because the Lerners had been cheap and didn't sign free agent pitchers in 2007 and will be worse since they didn't sign free agent pitchers in 2008. I was assuming that you weren't holding them responsible for 2006 and 2005, years in which the bullpen was also very heavily overworked.

I seem to recall the Lerners did a lot of reorganizing of Bowden's staff. Anyone?

Of course, that should have said that "the bullpen was overworked last year, and it is sure looking like it will be overworked again this year."

Tough choices tonight, watch the Caps try to force game seven against the hated Flyers, watch the Wiz try to even up the series against the hated Cavs, or watch Chico (0-3) v. Hudson (2-1).

Bye, PB69. We'll see you in three years when the team is in contention and we've put in all the hard work of suffering through rebuilding for you. We'll keep your seat on the bandwagon warm, so you can hop back on like you never left, maybe even break out that hat you wore back before July 4, 2005. Sure is good to have a winning team, good thing it comes so easy!

You better watch the Nats game, I actually think Hudson could throw a no-hitter tonight. Also, Zim did take a week off in Spring Training b/c of an injury, but other than that he played a lot and actually hit pretty well.

Section 506, you didn't misunderstand me. Meche and Lilly were both Type Bs. The Nats could have only lost one second round pick in signing them. The Nats would not have lost any pick whatsoever for signing either Lohse (who was not even a Type B) or Livan. I've never said the Nats should have signed Hunter.

As to the bullpen, of course I'm not holding the Lerners responsible for its overwork in 05 or 06. But I do think that, recognizing it as one of the few assets the team has, they should have done what they could to conserve it, by signing some starters to ease the load. They did the exact opposite with the nonsense they pulled with the rotation last year, which they have perpetuated this year.

"...see you later..."

You know, more often than not when Bob Carpenter says this, it actually IS a home run. Just not often enough, though...

For those who will be at any of the 4/25-4/27 home games (the 27th game is the day for our first NJ gathering of the year), the Nats will be conducting another baseball equipment drive in that timeframe:

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/official_info/community/btf.jsp?content=equipmentday

I'm still perplexed as to why Manny sat Guz and Nick yesterday but still refuses to sit Zim. With Nick, okay maybe I get it since he hadn't played in a year and a half and you don't want to risk another injury. But Guz? He's been their most consistent hitter (wow, is this possible?) and yet he sits him down for a game? Why? Because he was hurt last year? Wasn't Guz playing in September? Of the three (Guz, NJ, Zim), which one had surgery during the offseason? Which one isn't hitting his weight and has exaclty one more hit than I do with runners in scoring position? Would it be that terrible to sit him for one game?

Oh, and the Nats face Hudson, Smoltz and Santana the next three days and Carlos Zambrano this weekend. Quite possibly this could be a very long week.

Thanks for the offer 506, but I'm going to to a games in each of the four series in the upcoming homestand, so no need to keep my seat warm. As for tonight, if you think watching a bunch of bums who won't be here in three years is more interesting than playoff games being played by two of our home teams, I'll conceed that you're a more dedicated Nats fan than I.

also, does anyone know a way to see how many times Nats pitchers (relievers in particular) have had an 0-2 or 1-2 count on a batter only to either walk him or gives up a base hit? Seems to me they do this all the time.

I'm about as p'd off as anyone here and I'm about tired of the "it's still early" line; however, let me drop some knowledge on ya. And, it's tough for me to even accept these but hey numbers are numbers.

As of right now: 4/21/08 the Nationals are 5-14, 6.5 GB

As of 4/21/07:
-Philly was 5-11, 6 GB
-Colorado was 7-11, 6 GB

As of 6/1/07:
-The Yanks were 6 games under .500 and 12.5 GB
-Philly 2 games under and 8.5 GB
-Colorado 5 games under, 7.5 GB

Conclusion:
Gulp, it's still early. I'm about as disgusted as everybody and sure hope this is rock bottom; however, if we start to claw our way back with a win here and there, a series win here and there....who knows. I mean I know it took a monumental collapse by the Mets for it to work out for Philly and the Rockies were blessed with the grace of God during September, but hey not all is lost. Granted, there hasn't been many signs of promise; however, we have gotten some decent (not great, maybe not even good) starts from the rotation. Hopefully on the plane the guys realize that it's not over until the fat guys start strapping on the gear out at FedEx - a couple of series wins before we close out early season divisional play and we're right back in the thick of things.

e, try this:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/psplit.cgi?team=WSN&year=2008

these aren't just regular losses. they are embarrasing effort losses. worse than that they are against division rivals. this team has little chance to makeup any ground when they can't win head to head matchups.

we don't even have many picks to get excited about in this years draft. it's been a long month, but it's going to be a real long season. i'm just lo