This here "Plan" better blooming bloody-blue-heck work...

Collin Balester. Please. Thanks.

Nice gamer, Barry. Liked the visual of a 4-year old Lannan.

But "modicum of momentum" Barry?

;)

I'll take a modicum of momentum. Hell, I'll take anything.

Yesterday I drove from Arusha to Nairobi, through a lush green Rift Valley with Kilimanjaro clouded to the east. At the Namanga border post, I did NOT trade the Curly W cap I was wearing to the Maasai women hawkers for beaded bangles.

Here's hoping that our other "ace", Redding, can kick off the 11 game home stretch with win number 4.

Great Win tonight. I'm more and more impressed by Lannan with every start he makes. He was in my preseason rotation, so i've always been high on him. With that, in no particular order. The post all-star rotation i have is Hill, Lannan, Perez, Balester, and Redding (Chico if Redding is traded). I just have this feeling if Redding keeps pitching well......

Barry, in his first game Lannan broke Chase Utley's hand, not his wrist - also got himself thrown out for hitting Ryan Howard, as I recall, and it was the only game that Manny got thrown out of last year. Quite a far cry from Bergmanning Smoltz last night!

O'Connor could figure in there too.

Several things that I loved about last night:

1. Lannan, of course. This guy has an amazing presence and just inspires confidence. You can see the team elevate its play in the field with him pitching.
So far this young man is the best thing happening for the Nats.

2. Nieves. I love his style of play. He and Lannan work so well together. If he gets sent down when Lo Duca is healthy I will be furious. I am seeing Nieves and Flores splitting the load 50/50 in the not too distant future.

3. Willy Harris. It is so nice to have a left fielder who can play his position. I am sure that Lannan was smiling when the lineup card showed him starting. After all it was WMP who cost Lannan the run in the last game in the first inning. Now he is hitting as well.

4. Johnson. Great defense tonight.

5. Manny Acta. Gave Lannan a chance tonight by inserting Harris for Pena. That is playing to win, not to practice. Let Pena learn to bat somewhere else. Playing Lopez at second. Lopez is a better defender than Belliard, once again, playing to win. When you have a pitcher who you feel will make a 1-0 game stand up you give him every chance with the right catcher and the right defense in the field.
Not bringing in Ray King with a runner on base, perhaps that is the way to use him.

6. Rauch. It was great to see a strong performance from him in the ninth.

7. Zimmerman. Nice defence. Finally a hit with runners on base. Only 1/5 but at last a timely one hit.

This from the "admiting when you're wrong" section: I completely gave up on Lopez during ST. I went as far as suggesting he simply be Pattersoned if they couldn't trade him and he wouldn't accept a spot on the bench. However, since then he has proven he would in fact play whatever position he was asked, and has certainly earned the right to start at 2B. Keep it up Felipe.

Now I just wonder if they should have traded Belliard after his hot ST when teams were coveting him over FLop. Hindsight is of course 20/20.

There is plenty of day baseball in the Nationals farm system. Tyler Clippard (Columbus) and Colton Willems (Hagerstown) each kick things off at 10:300AM. Then at 12:00PM Marco Estrada (Harrisburg) and Ross Detwiler (Potomac) take their respective mounds.

Chico is looking like the odd man out. He looks good in one game spurts, never consecutively. Perez has shown me far more quality in his pitching than I thought we would see, so far he is proving to be a nice signing (take note all those Bowden haters). Redding is pitching well enough to win on teams that have an offense. Hill showed in his first appearance that he has great stuff. I think that Hill will get better outing by outing until he returns to last season's form. Lannan has proven himself to be our best pitcher now. When will Chico be sent down? Who will be brought up that will be better? I have not a clue.

I'm not sure if Chico is the odd man out (yet). That 8 inning performance in his home start against the braves still looms. I was just trying to think in terms of "the Plan" and where we'll be with the rotation around the all-star break. I think Hill, Lannan, Chico factor in. Based on trades/injury so do Balester/O'Connor. I do agree though it feels too early to consider any of this. I just want to enjoy performances like we saw last night from the whole team. Lannan, Harris, Flip, Nieves, Zim, Millz, the whole crew. That was just fun. I'm fired up to see Redding go toe-2-toe with Johan tonight.

"Hill showed in his first appearance that he has great stuff. I think that Hill will get better outing by outing until he returns to last season's form."

Presumably you mean last season, non-injured form...

are we sure we dont want to bring up levale speigner for tonights start vs johan santana again? (i know he is on the DL...)

Hahahaha i hear ya valley, that start in the BaggyDome is one that we'll all remember. I'm not sure if the rest of baseball noticed but that was the first time i thought that Johan could actually be defeated. It was the first time that i realized that he didn't p*ss lightning and cr*p thunder. JK i do think that Redding can pull off the same thing tonight though.

Off topic, I apologize, but has anyone tried parking at the lot (I believe Blue, or B) at 1st and N sts? This is for season ticket holders and I have tickets from my work tonight and I am wondering if it is worth attempting to drive. Metro is nice and easy for us living in Crystal City -- but if Parking and traffic aren't too bad it might be fun.

"If he gets sent down when Lo Duca is healthy I will be furious."
-Dale
***********************************

Not that I completely disagree... but you're kinda setting yourself up for disappointment.

In light of the Speigner start being mentioned this morning, I (re)present the new entries to the NATionary that some might have missed from last night's discussion:

To "Bergmann" - (v) - 1) to out-duel an opposing starting pitcher when said opposition is heavily favored; to win decisively against a future Hall of Famer; 2) to cause an opposing pitcher to "Smoltz"
- Synonyms) to "Speigner"

To "Smoltz" - (v) - to throw a tantrum when leaving the pitchers mound when being "Bergmanned" potentially but not necessarily resulting in injury and a stint on the DL.

Posted by: MKevin | April 22, 2008 10:35 PM

Section 506,

I definitely hope to see him return to last season's non-injured form. A lot of the pitches that he threw Saturday had amazing movement so I am not so worried that whatever he has that makes him a special pitcher is still there.

Big Roy,

I see Chico being the most replaceable part in this rotation. "Odd man out" was not a good choice of words. If we have someone in the farm system who can consistently deliver a better performance than Chico at this time then I see no reason to not let him work on his new leg kick and other issues in the minors. That being said I do see Chico improving each season. He will be a regular starting pitcher on someone's team in the future. If we do not have a Lannan like prospect in the minors that we will bring up then Chico is going to give you a chance to win about every other outing.

I am of the assumption and of the hope that any pitcher who can string together a few decent starts (see Perez O, Redding T) then they are, rightfully so, a good bet to get traded. On these standards I would bet that there won't be a member of this starting staff over the age of 26 post July 31. I'll put the post all star break rotation at:

Hill (not healthy enough to get traded)
Lannan (not old enough to get traded)
Clippard (not enough starts to get traded... yet)
Ballester (Up and down for the next year or two but should be solid by the time the team is ready to compete)
Chico (If at first you dont succeed...)

O'Connor could easily replace one of these guys but i'm thinking that he's the next up and he could get 5 or 6 starts. If he performs he's traded, if he doesn't he's in the minors.

Iam a big supporter of The Plan, but I'm not sure the right guy is in charge to make it work. I would be more comfortable if someone who is more patient and less mercurial than JimBow was at the helm. The problem right now is that outside of Flores, Maxwell and Marrero, there's nothing in the system but pitching. Not that I'm complaining, but where are the up-and-coming middle inflelders to replace Guzman and Belliard/Lopez? Where is the dynamic leadoff hitter/middle infielder this team needs? Is JimBow going to have trade some of that young pitching to fill those, and other needs? Will he still want a pound of sirloin for a pound of ground chuck in potential trades, thereby scaring off potential partners? Does he undermine the manager and coaching staff because of his love of seeing and hearing his name mentioned in the media? I'd love to have an Andy MacPhail type shepherding this new era of Nats baseball, rather than the self-promoter we currently have.

No, i hear ya on Chico, it just seems that the team has been willing to let him "work it out" with the big club based on the starts he gave them last year. Lets see how long that lasts though based how Jimbo handled the Bergmann situation. Matty has gaffed in three of his last four starts, so we'll see. I agree he the most replaceable though. Lets hope he makes it a hard choice for the FO. Its funny, i got into a spirited back and forth with Sec 231 about Lannan/Redding/Chico before the season. I was pushing for Redding to be a part of the rotation and Lannan ahead of Chico. At this point i think their just trying to figure out what they have in Chico. As for as the minors go, Barry mentioned Zimmermann. I've mostly focused on the AAA level with Balester, Mock , Clippard etc. Out of the bunch. Balester and O'Connor stand out right now.

MKevin: good of you to own up to changing your opinion on Lopez. I felt the same way about him in ST and I never really had a problem with him last year.

But your comment on trading Belliard in ST made me chuckle. Imagine, if they had seriously traded Belliard in spring training? We would have gone BALLISTIC!! Even WITH hindsight, this blog would have been in flames.

I am by no means a Bowden advocate but given the state of the Nationals farm system when Bowden came aboard, rating him on the depth of the farm after only three drafts (and keep in mind there were still financial restrictions in place for the 2005 draft) is a bit unfair.

You can only reasonably expect a handful of top prospects out of any one given draft. And the success rate of those type of guys is spotty at best.

The Nationals had a bare cupboard when they arrived in 2005. The draft picks that Dana Brown oversaw was remarkable but it honestly was focused on getting one or two guys and then filling in with signability picks.

Since then the Nationals have had three very promising drafts. In 2005, they selected Ryan Zimmerman, Justin Maxwell, and John Lannan. And there are a couple of other guys still worth keeping an eye on (OF Mike Daniel is one). In 2006, they went high risk/high reward with a lot of high schoolers. Marrero, Colton Willems, Stephen Englund, Stephen King, & Glenn Gibson [turned into Elijah Dukes] are all full of potential. And they went pitching heavy in 2007. The bottom line is the expectation is that the Nats could only really hope to find 5 or 6 guys in any given draft.

All of this has been a positve step but the Nationals are realistically another 3 drafts away from replenishing the cupboard.

While Bowden fairly has his detractors, I'm not sure whether the lack of middle infielders in the farm system is something he should be blamed for.

I agree leetee,

I'm not a JimBow supporter either(actually i'm not sure who is?). Don't forget Burgess on that prospect list. I hope that we really consider Gordon Beckham 2b/SS out of Georgia in the draft. Kind of in the Zimmerman mold. College player, not too far from the majors. Hes not a leadoff guy but is a pretty solid bat.

leetee I can certainly understand your point about Bowden. I hope that Rizzon, Brown, Boone and the others can temper any of his mercurial whims...they seem to be working quite well as a group (at least when it comes to drafting and player development).

The Nats do seem to be loaded with pitchers at the minors, from Columbus down to Hagerstown there is at least a legit prospect or two at each level. Brian from Nats Farm Authority might be a good source when it comes to identifying other potential position players, but I think the Nats are high on some of the younger guys like Gonzalez, Smolinksi, Burgess and some others (but most of them were from the 2007 draft so it will be a few years).
Clearly the Nats need to get some Middle Infielders in the pipeline so maybe a college SS or 2B might be in the cards with their 1st round pick...too bad ESPN doesn't cover the baseball draft 1/100th as much as the NFL Draft!

See you at the Park! Go Nats

PS: Balester or maybe even Zimmermann will be in the mix by August--need a power arm in the rotation. Chico back to Triple AAA sooner rather than later...so Perez, Redding, Hill, Lannan and Balester after the break (though hope Perez can be traded).

oops...sorry for the Rizzo typo!

Post Trade Dealine rotation;

Shawn Hill
John Lannan
Colin Balester
Michael O'Connor
Matt Chico
(Redding traded and Perez traded/DFA'd depending on results)

Schroder and Bergmann will be up in the ML bullpen with Cordero/Rauch traded and Ayala/Rivera traded

That's 4 pitchers gone, plus probably Guzman traded. That would get us younger and hopefully add additional depth to the farm system all at the same time.

From DrayBay:

Buy! Buy! Buy!
Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia - No relation to Tim, but they share last names, positions, and the top ranking among middle infielders in their respective classes. Beckham doesn't have one outstanding tool, but he sure can swing the bat, hitting .430/.530/.868 and shooting up draft boards this spring. I hate to make the comparison, but Beckham's scouting report sounds a lot like Evan Longoria's coming out of college. Of course, Longoria has far exceeded even the most optimistic projections for him, and it's doubtful Beckham does that. On the other hand, Beckham should be able to stick at SS, though some teams view him as a 3B (mlb.com says 2b) down the line.

______________

I'm not sure about the Evan Longoria comparison (this is a Tampa Rays post). However, if we can get a Kalil Greene or Troy Tulowitski type player then that would be great

I, like everyone else, am not necessarily a bowden fan. I think he can get too full of himself and he is a little too awed by "tools." I'd love to have andy mcphail, but the problem there is that he already has a job. I dont see however, how people can give him no credit for what he's done here.

We talk about the lack of middle infield depth in the organization. Bowden can go out and try to trade for a shortstop (which i'm sure he's been doing) but look at where we started and then tell me he's done a bad job. When the nats first came to dc we had nobody at short (quickly turned into guzman who everyone but me seems to love right now) and old man Vidro (who i loved but could no longer play the position). In the minors there was next to nothing so we picked up promising prospects like King, Gonzalez, and Desmond. The next year Bowden managed to turn Royce Clayton (who i had thought was out of the game until he ended up on our opening day roster) into Lopez, who has shown sparks this year and may still be a good infielder. As well as picking up Belliard, a move nobody has questioned.

This entire time the Plan has been "pitching, pitching, and more pitching" and bowden has followed that to a Tee. Everyone speaks highly of our great pitchign depth, but where was that in 2004? Now we have a legit shot to have a solid staff in 5 years, and I wouldn't trade that for all the middle infielders in the world. The one thing that everyone always needs is pitching, the one thing that you can't have too much of is pitching, the one thing that you can always trade away is pitching, and yet some people have the gall to complain about how much pitching there is in the organization?

In baseball you don't draft for need. Your concerns are experience, upside, signability. Your choices are prep or college, pitcher or position player, and sometimes the choice is made for you. I'd love to get Gordan Beckham, but if there's someone better on the board we should nab him. Never let need dictate a draft and everything will turn out alright.

Dale,
great observations on last night's positives.

Harris was stinking up the plate for awhile but I completely relax when he's defending left field. I hold my breath a lot with Pena and Milledge.

speaking of Harris, one game I went to a foul ball went to the front or second row of the stands and the fan caught it straight up. Harris had been running full tilt to get it but it got to the fan first. Boy did Harris give that fan the stink-eye.

I call first on the Lannan love. I've loved that kid from his very first outing.

And Nieves too. He was on my opening day roster. Then his first start up here I noticed a SIGNIFICANT difference in his play over LoDuca.

I'm excited about Redding starting. I'm not really worried about him and that's a great feeling.

I couldn't help but take some time this morning to ponder the 2008 stats of one Gil Meche, who will make over $10 million in 2008. 27 IP, with an ERA of 8.00! He'd fit right in with the Nats, he's almost as good as Nerds Journal favorite Jason Bergman. Shoot, we should have offered $60 million for him. Who cares that he sucks, he eats a lot of innings. At least he's no Odalis Perez, who'll make less than $1 million this year.

Hill
Redding
Lannan
O'Connor
Bergmann/Balester

Perez traded, Chico in AAA.

@VT Nats Fan - Could not agree with you more. The mantra for a MLB team in the draft is BPA (best player available). Case in point, there have been rumors that one of the top four players in the draft, University of Missouri RHP Aaron Crow might have a higher price tag than the forecasted slot bonuses would dictate. On talent, Crow is a top four guy. But if by some miracle he were to slide to the Nationals at #9, I would hope they would not let the fact that they have drafted pitchers early in the past prevent them from getting the BPA at #9 and grab him.

Good points Tech, yeah in baseball "best available" always applies. I guess i'm thinking if Beckham falls to #9 he would be the best available. He's projected in the top 5-10, so he could be long gone at that point. I've been following his progress since Cape Cod last year and he's having a monster year this year. I was hoping he'd be a hidden gem at this point but hes shot up the prospect boards the past few months.

Haha, I love it Torri Hunter!

BigRoy, I love Beckham too, I would love to see the nats grab him. I'm a huge supporter of grabbing college players, I like the stability, the maturity, and the track record. Also, the recently mentioned nats farm authority recently did an interesting post on catchers, from what i've seen there's a good chance we grab either the top prep or college catcher with #9.

http://farmauthority.dcsportsnet.com/2008/04/21/future-focus-catchers/

The link for anyone interested.

I am really enjoying all the possible rotation changes and possible trade scenerios. I wanted to contribute in this aspect until I realized that though I sat cringing in my seat through eight innings yesterday, it was the first time I actually enjoyed watching the Nationals play since March 2nd, 2008.

That being said, today I will just simply say: Thank you Lannan, thank you!

GO NATS!

NatsNut, I Totally agree. We would have attempted to use our collective telekinesis to stop the earh from spinning on its axis and reverse time to undo the tragedy of trading our new found all-star 2B, and I would have been leading the charge.

Just shows how good we all are at our day jobs ;-)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

But your comment on trading Belliard in ST made me chuckle. Imagine, if they had seriously traded Belliard in spring training? We would have gone BALLISTIC!! Even WITH hindsight, this blog would have been in flames.

Posted by: NatsNut | April 23, 2008 8:55 AM

Yeah i read that too. I'm not sure what would be considered more pressing, catching depth of middle infield depth. I haven't thought of catching because i immediatly think of "the Jesus" when it comes to that. I guess my inner Billy Beane always goes to the "close to the majors" guys first. I know that the Skipworth kid is getting alot of love though.

Kyle Skipworth, C, Patriot HS, Ca.

VT Nats Fan,

Great Post and dead on.

You said the part about Bowden a Helluva lot better than I have been trying to say it.

Speaking of catching, cool story on Milb.com

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080422&content_id=388747&vkey=news_milb&fext=.jsp

lannan is on my fantasy team.

i still think its doubtful we get a middle infielder with first pick in the draft.

we can easily find great glove man up the middle. it would be nice to have a franchise ss/2b but i'd rather they field first and find offense elsewhere. i'm still calling that we resign guzman and i'm about to call for resigning felipe.

again, draft more pitching this year. i like the idea of overstocking minors with pitching and signing bigtime free agent bats.

also, i think lannan started at potomac last year so maybe zimmermann isn't that much a stretch.

either way next year we are getting the top pick in the draft. that will be exciting. sure would be nice to find arod/griffey/lebron james type there. there i'd be fine with drafting a bat whatever the position.

this just occurred to me. odd man out. wouldn't it be even man out (6th) in a 5 man rotation? i'm happy with lannan. ready for balester. delay detwiler, although his might be the jersey i buy in a couple years.

Off topic, I apologize, but has anyone tried parking at the lot (I believe Blue, or B) at 1st and N sts? This is for season ticket holders and I have tickets from my work tonight and I am wondering if it is worth attempting to drive. Metro is nice and easy for us living in Crystal City -- but if Parking and traffic aren't too bad it might be fun.

Posted by: GoNats | April 23, 2008 8:16 AM
-----------
we've driven to three games and have had no trouble parking. If you take the route 1 exit off of 14th St bridge there is an exit for the Waterfront that drops you right on Maine Ave. From there you just sail down Maine/M St into parking. It's actually easier than RFK - which I never, ever expected.

@longterm - The clubhouse favorite for the 2009 #1 overall is another pitcher, San Diego State RHP Stephen Strasburg (http://goaztecs.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl/mtt/strasburg_stephen00.html)

this is the rotation i'd like to see post all star break:

Lannan, Redding, Hill, Balester, OPerez

I think its time to send chico to AAA to work on his mechanics. Obviously the new leg kick has brought back his fastball but has also cost him control, which is costing him runs. I think Balester is who you bring up immediately. O'Connor's numbers look fabulous at AAA and he'd be next if OPerez falters.

Mock, Clippard and Bergmann are getting shelled in Columbus, better to leave them down there for a bit.

Meanwhile, has anyone seen the starts our AA and high-A teams have gotten off to? Both leading their respective leagues, both with strong rotations full of very good eras and whips. Detwiler is arguably pitching the worst of the 5 starters at Potomac and is still respectable. 2 years from now our rotation probably goes:

Balester, JZimmerman, Detwiler (L), Lannan (L), VanAllen (L)

I'm fired up about the draft. Saberscouting has two mock drafts where Hosmer, G Beckham, Posey and/or Skipworth are potentially available at #9. Beckham had led the NCAA in homers this year (just like he led the Cape league last summer). Hosmer appears to be the highest rated HS bat.

I'd add Smolinski to the middle infield picture and also note Desmond was part of the Expos system prior to the move to DC.

My bad on missing those guys Ocho, i did it off the top of my head.

or we could go back to Missouri for Kyle Gibson! who are these guys? i have no idea. but we need them!

"I'd love to get Gordan Beckham"

No, get David Beckham. Not only does he have a hot wife (to replace the departed Mrs. Patterson), he packed RFK in his only appearance there last year.

I think its still to early to give us the #1 overall pick for next year, that being said, would it really be such a bad thing? Would it be worth it if we got a star?

I don't know enough about pitching the speak with intelligence on the subject at hand.

But man, that was a good win last night. I had to miss a lot, but from what I saw and the recaps, it appears that the team was finally playing without sloppiness and with discipline. That's been the rub so far -- this club doesn't have the raw talent to win the division, let's face it. But if they play this type of game every night instead of what they'd been doing, they can win a fair number. Moreover, they're fun to watch and root for regardless of whether they pull one out of the fire.

Anyway, let's hope to see them continue this calibre of play against the Mets, regardless of the wins and losses.

Oh, and I too love Nieves behind the plate. His defense and game calling is really smart and it's fun to watch him, esp. when a pitch doesn't go where expected. (Rauch owed the Diaz K to Nieves' framing, that's for sure.)

Curious to see how the park is going to play during this homestand. It warmer, a bit humid. The ball should carry. Johan does have a tendency to give up "the booty" (homeruns). We'll see, should be interesting.

very quiet the day after a win...

yes, life is good, at least until 7:10pm tonight...

I think it's a stretch to project Van Allen in the majors, but a 2010 starting Rotation of;
Hill (then 28?)
Detwiler
Balester
Lannan
J. Zimmermann

Colton Wilems also could be a possibility, he seems like he's been around for a while and is only in low A, but he's also only 19!

I've been catching up on the last several postings due to a couple of heavy weeks at work and some extensive travel. There has been much railing against the GM, the Manager, and the hitting coach. Many think neither the GM nor the hitting coach know their jobs and the Manger is too easy. All that may be true but what I want to question is the leadership among the players. Is there a "kangaroo court" in the Nats' clubhouse? Are the players holding each other accountable? Is anyone saying "follow me," or "watch my next at bat?" That is how a team is formed. I'm not sure we have anything here, yet, other than 25 guys looking out for themselves (even doing a poor job at that also) with no real concept of team play. I've missed seeing many of the last two weeks worth of games but it appears no one is moving the runner over or making sure that the runner scores form third with less than two outs. We just can't forget the number of outs either on the bases or in the field. We can't continue to walk pitchers for goodness sakes. Who among the players is standing up and demanding excelence, or at the very least accountability? I see none of it, which doesn't mean it's not there, but if we have leaders on this club they are very well disguised.
Let's play two!

Cliffy. Dude (i think). You spoke my mind again. It's the difference between losing well and losing awfully that I firmly believe. Just give me awesome, heads-up, smart baseball and great attitude to watch and I'll forgive a lot.

VT, Don't forget we had Maicer Izturis and Juan Rivera before Bowden traded them. Not great, but if the plan was in place they wouldn't have been traded for Guillen and Guzman wouldn't have been signed as a FA (thus losing a draft pick). Bowden is confined by the plan, not part of it.

The case against Bowden isn't that he's never made any good moves. I think the Soriano trade was genius, though it was only worth one year of entertainment value, what a year it was!

Also as I've gone on and on and on... the case against him has to recognize that he inherited a total wreck of a franchise that was coming off of 5 years of deliberate destruction while being owned and operated for the benefit of our 29 competitors. We had no scouts, a shoestring salary cap, 100+ road games a year, and for most of that time the franchise was facing imminent contraction, meaning that when Omar was running the team in 2002 (and trading Brandon Phillips, Grady Sizemore and Cliff Lee for a 1-year rental of Bartolo Colon, among other deals that would only make sense if your team isn't going to exist in a year or 2).

The case against Bowden is....

1. He's been a GM for 14 years and has 1 playoff appearance, no WS appearances, and 4 winning seasons. If you want to make excuses (small market, Marge Schott, media bias, Ralph Nader...), you can, but the track record does not include the traditional definition of success, aka winning. Check it out: http://www.thebaseballcube.com/general-managers/jim-bowden.shtml

2. Baseball America's glowing reviews of the 2007 draft notwithstanding, he's been a poor drafter over his 14 years as a GM, especially when it comes to pitching, which makes him a bad fit for "The Plan." He gets generally better marks for his trades (though still a mixed bag) and very high marks for his ability to scrounge "free talent," but the Plan is about drafting and developing, especially pitching. At Baseball Reference you can look at all his draft results by year--http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft.

But here's a quick summary of what you'll find from his years with the Reds (I'm not 100% positive he ran all these drafts, but I think this is right):

1993
--1st round: Pat Watkins (195 career AB)
--Best pick(s) overall: Paul Bako, Scott Sullivan

1994
--1st round: C.J. Nitkowski (career 18-32, 5.37)
--Best pick(s) overall: Aaron Boone

1995
--1st round: Brett Tomko (career: 94-94 4.60)
--Best pick(s) overall: Tomko, Jason LaRue, Ray King, Rob Mackowiak (wait a minute...)

1996
--1st round: John Oliver (never made the show)
--Best pick(s) overall: Buddy Carlyle (9-10 5.96)

1997
--1st round: Brandon Larson (291 career AB)
--Best pick(s) overall: Scott Williamson (career: 28-28 3.36)

1998
--1st round: Austin Kearns!
--Best pick(s) overall: Adam Dunn! B.J. Ryan! (wow! JimBo struck it rich that year!)

1999
--1st round: Scott Dunn (never made the show)
--Best pick(s) overall: Ben Broussard

2000
--1st round: David Espinoza (never made the show)
--Best pick(s) overall: Oy vey. Dustin Moseley I guess (career: 6-5, 5.36)

2001
--1st round: Jeremy Sowers (8-10, 4.80)
--Best pick(s) overall: well, Sowers is the only one who's made the majors, so...

2002
--1st round: Christopher Gruler (hasn't made the show)
--Best pick(s) overall: Joey Votto, Chris Denorfia

So there you have it. NOT a pretty picture. I only looked at the June drafts, not the supplementals, etc., but based on that quick review, he's drafted 2 all-stars (Dunn and Ryan), no HOFs, and maybe 6-7 position players who panned out as starters in the bigs. Maybe Votto will join the list of all-stars someday.

But most damning (if you're looking for credentials to implement "the Plan") is that he's drafted exactly 2 pitchers who posted winning records in more than 20 decisions career--Scott Sullivan (40-28, 3.98) and John Riedling (17-13, 4.41). Yikes!

Now I realize that drafting is an inexact science, especially in baseball, and ESPECIALLY with pitchers, but if this is all you were able to do in 10 years... well, he's at the very least a bad fit for "the Plan."

3. In the interests of organizational continuity, it's always preferable to have a new boss come in and bring in his own people. There's a reason why every new President cleans house in the West Wing. You want everyone on the team feeling bought in and part of the project for the long-haul, as I think Manny does, and Zimmerman, and Kasten. But Bowden has to feel like he has less support than that in the organization, and therefore probably feels pressure to win faster than you would expect under "the Plan." I don't blame him for that, but it's hard to imagine that there isn't at least some of that there, and it's bad for the organization.

Why is it that after a loss, the pitchfork crowd is out in force, but after a win, none of them have anything to say?

Thanks for the defense yesterday, 506, but in fact I did call out the blog-hards and I will probably continue to do so even though I should ignore them instead.

Great posts on the minors (Brian, keep it coming, a lot of us send people to your site via posts here on a regular basis, but the more, the better) and on the draft (I gotta catch up on that).

If you're a fan of the Nats, you might as well be a fan of The Plan, because that's what this team is about right now. If you don't like it, go somewhere else and we'll see you in a few years.

Since it's come up a couple times recently -- yes, I'm a guy

Me, too. Funny, I was saying as much to 1c before yesterday's game started.

---

Cliffy. Dude (i think). You spoke my mind again. It's the difference between losing well and losing awfully that I firmly believe. Just give me awesome, heads-up, smart baseball and great attitude to watch and I'll forgive a lot.

Just to clarify, I meant that I agree, not that I'm also a guy. Daggone pokey submit button... ;-)

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Me, too. Funny, I was saying as much to 1c before yesterday's game started.

Bob L. Head (aka, "Mrs. Bowden"),

:)

I'm here! And verbose!

Bob L., I enjoy your posts here, but I would have to say that "love it or leave it" is blow-hardism at its worst. I would hope that people will feel free to post here whether their thoughts are in line with corporate Nat policy or not. You don't have to be a Planista to be a Nat's fan.

Hey Steven, I think you have an argument there, although, as you duly noted, drafting is an inexact science (in fact it's a crapshoot).

For example, let's take the Atlanta Braves top picks over the past 10 years:

1998: Matt Belisle
1999: Matt Butler
2000: Adam Wainwright
2001: Macay McBride
2002: Jeff Francoeur
2003: Luis Atilano
2004: Eric Campbell
2005: Joey Devine
2006: Cody Johnson
2007: Jason Heyward

So one of the best, if not the best, organizations in baseball (in terms of bringing up talent from the minors to stock the major league club) has one MLB player currently on its roster from among its last 10 first-round picks. Granted, the last four are still in the system and are regarded as prospects, but so are the Nats recent picks.

With that said, my own pet theory, as I've said on here recently, is that Rizzo in charge of the back end of The Plan (the draft and prospects) and Jimbo is in charge of fiddling around with the major league roster and trying to (i) use the assets we have to acquire more, better and younger assets; and (ii) try to field a competitive major league team using spare parts while we wait for The Plan to come to fruition in a few years.

Finally, for the record, my view is that posters that have a reasoned opinion and back it up with research and stats (as you did above) do not fall into the category of "blog-hards" I mentioned earlier, no matter what their opinions are.

Just a little reminder...

Hey, fellow Nats fans and Constituents, it's almost time for the NJ faithful's first gathering of 2008!

Date: Sunday, April 27

Time: From 11:35 AM to approx. 1:05 PM (game time vs. the Cubs is 1:35 PM)

Where: We will plan to meet at Nationals Park on the right-field side of the center field gate (which opens 2.5 hours before game time) on the main concourse level. Somebody will be posted in that area with a Planet NJ sign, name tag, or some such identifier. Our scouts plan to arrive earlier and attempt to snag a picnic table (the tables are located behind sections 142 and 143 on the main concourse level). One of our scouts has learned that the tables can only be reserved as part of a group ticket package. However, unreserved tables may be available on a first-come, first-served basis. Our fall-back plan will be to pull up cement seats in a remote area of the park or to seek out the standup tables just inside the home plate gate. See the team site for a map of the main concourse level.

Attire: Baseball casual

What to bring: Your own drinking water and food (unless you plan to buy it inside the park). A blanket in case we are not able to snag a table and need to pull up cement seats in a remote area of the park. Something to donate for the baseball equipment drive, if you are so inclined (details available via team site).

For Nationals policy on outside food and beverages, see the excerpt below (cut and pasted from the A-Z Guide on the team site):

"All food items must be contained in single serving bags within a soft-sided container or cooler, that does not exceed 16" x 16" x 8". Metal, plastic or glass containers of any kind (except for factory-sealed, plastic water bottles, no larger than 1 liter and juice boxes) are prohibited at Nationals Park. Only one bottle of water per person will be permitted."

Your hosts include: Natsfan1a, NatsNut, Hendo, and our special guest host - John in Mpls (only he'll be in D.C., not Mpls, but I digress).

Please join us so that we can put faces to the monikers (and see some familiar faces again)!

Aw shizznitt. Walt Jocketty was available?????

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/baseball/mlb/04/23/krivsky.fired.ap/index.html

I only assumed he was retiring or taking a year off or something. Talk about the FA that we should have signed last off season!

That's the end of the "there's no one else out there" defense of JimBo. Now THERE'S a GM with a track record of success--drafting AND winning.

Try this on for size:
13 years, 7 playoffs, 2 WS appearances, on world championship.

I really sucked today

forget jocketty... i keep hoping that hank will continue being a worse version of big george and chase cashman out of town. maybe he'll want to come home.

JoeBleux, fair point, I didn't really mean to say "love it or leave it," and I agree, of course, that people can and should have, and post, their own opinions.

What I was really trying to say was that the team has been pretty upfront about what it's going to do, right down to the fact that Manny basically says above that the losses don't matter this year as long as we find one young pitcher that looks like part of the future. If you accept that then it's easier to be a fan of the current team. If you don't accept that then the current team is just going to make you angry. Personally I don't enjoy being angry and if I'm spending a lot of time doing something that makes me angry then I think maybe I should be doing something else. But not everyone has to make that choice, clearly.

Fair enough. I'll try to continue to wield my well-reasoned pitchfork effectively.

On the draft, I totally agree that there's so much guesswork, that you have to take the long-view and assume there will be plenty of busts in there. But taking the longest possible view is what puts Bowden's performance in the worst light. I looked at every pick in every round over a decade, and there isn't a single SP there who qualifies as better than a 5.

I also think that's why we're a little hasty to go nuts over the 2007 draft. We'll start to see in 3 years or so whether that draft really was all it was cracked up to be.

BTW--those Atlanta first round picks are incredibly impressive, actually. You've got an ace SP and a middle-of-the-order power bat in the space of 3 drafts, and Belisle is probably better than ANY SP Bowden's ever drafted in any round.

Bob:

Make that two of their last 10 first-round picks that are successful major leaguers. Francoeur (the obvious one) is on Atlanta's starting lineup, but Macay McBride is also one of Atlanta's top arms out of the bullpen.

Just to clarify, I meant that I agree, not that I'm also a guy. Daggone pokey submit button... ;-)

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Me, too. Funny, I was saying as much to 1c before yesterday's game started.

Posted by: natsfan1a | April 23, 2008 12:12 PM

==================

Whew! I was sure that 1c (as well as 1b) would have been too shocked by that conversation to pay any attention to the ensuing game...

Thanks for the invite natsfanta1. Unfortunately I will be unable to attend but I will be there in spirit. Hopefully sometime later in the summer - I'll be in Charlottesville in July and the homestand on the 12th and 13th looks very possible. Have fun, go Nats!

p.s.
Don't let John in Mpls run-out to get something to eat if we have the lead!

Of course, that's just the two on ATL's list. As Steven pointed out, Wainwright's doing pretty well in STL.

I'd contest the Belisle is better than any starting pitcher that Bowden's ever drafted contention though. Aside from the optimism about our current arms, Tomko was a fairly high-end starter (certainly at a higher level than Belisle) for quite some time before falling off and ruining his career stats.

What's the story on Detwiler today? I'm on my blackberry in Ottawa, Canada so I can't check on the big minor league day game marathon we've got on tap.

"But taking the longest possible view is what puts Bowden's performance in the worst light. I looked at every pick in every round over a decade, and there isn't a single SP there who qualifies as better than a 5."

As the GM, how much input do you really think Bowden had on those picks? He didn't scout any of the players himself. Sure, he probably read the scouting reports before each draft, but he likely had no input at all into the Reds organization's internal ranking of the players available. The decision of which player to pick as the Reds' turn came up was probably not made by him either. At best, he might have served as a tiebreaker if there was a deadlock among the staff as to which player to choose. Unless he brought his entire scouting and drafting team from his Reds days over with him to the Nationals (which I don't think he did) there's really no way you can damn him now for how the Reds drafted when he was GM there. He deserves credit/blame for trades, of course, but draft decisions are not really the responsibility of a team's GM, even a meddlesome one like Bowden.

Formerly anonymous, but given Barry's ruling yesterday I guess I need to place a bogus name on my anonymous postings to cover my shame. So let's just say I'm Posting With a Bag Over My Head (PWABOMH).

Detwiler struggled with his command today. He lasted only 2/3 of an inning getting pulled after throwing 40 pitches. He had several three-ball counts (though he walked only one) and gave up a home run.

You're welcome and thanks, lowcountry. Keep us posted on your summer schedule and we'll see what develops. Some of us will be at the July 4th P-Nats game but it sounds like that date will not overlap with your trip.

I think that we'll be okay with John as they don't have Burger King at the park. :)

---

Thanks for the invite natsfanta1. Unfortunately I will be unable to attend but I will be there in spirit. Hopefully sometime later in the summer - I'll be in Charlottesville in July and the homestand on the 12th and 13th looks very possible. Have fun, go Nats!

p.s.
Don't let John in Mpls run-out to get something to eat if we have the lead!

Posted by: lowcountry | April 23, 2008 12:41 PM

Funny!

---

Formerly anonymous, but given Barry's ruling yesterday I guess I need to place a bogus name on my anonymous postings to cover my shame. So let's just say I'm Posting With a Bag Over My Head (PWABOMH).

Posted by: PWABOMH | April 23, 2008 12:58 PM

Typically, the GM has a play in the first selection or two, the ones that bring the most promising players. In 2007, I'd imagine Bowden had a say in the Detwiler selection for sure. And probably the Smoker and Burgess ones as well. But likely would defer to Dana Brown, Mike Rizzo and the rest of the scouting staff on the rest of the draft.

Bob L., that came across a little more harshly than I intended. Must remember to count to 10 before posting. I understand your point that it's going to be a long season if we get up in arms about the payroll all over again after every loss.

This predition of, or assembly of wish-list for, the future Nats rotation is fun but it is a bit much -- I mean 9 months ago half of those names would be out of the picture. Would John Patterson have been the number 2 guy? At the rate things are moving with this club over the past 2 years, it is anyone's guess, Bowden included, who might toe the rubber for the Nats next week much less next year or beyond. But I guess that is the way it should be with this assemblage -- we should not be wedded to anyone on this club or in its organization, postion player or pitcher. I say go wild Trader Jim! This organization has brought such little reward over the past 200 games that the risk of breaking it up seems pretty tolerable right now.

We can argue the fine points but there is no way to argue that JimBo's record in Cinci, drafting or otherwise, was anything other than "meh." (Where did we get that word, and why is it the perfect word to describe Jimbo's record in Commietown?)

I guess I just think he might have a specific role here, and that's to implement Stan's Plan in a "creative" way, which probably means relentlessly working the phones to try to get max value for mediocre players.

Here's Barry's story on Stan's decision to retain Bowden:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/03/29/AR2007032902471_2.html

And another one to the same effect:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=kurkjian_tim&id=2524964

The key quote, from Stan (from Barry's story):

"We know Jim has been something of a controversial figure for some time, and after I made this decision, this person called me and told me how surprised he was," Kasten said. "Then I told him what I had here, and what I thought was needed to get out of it, what was required. And the guy said to me: 'You know, you're right about that. That's one thing he can do. Now I see what you're saying.' "

Makes you wonder whether Jimbo himself is part of The Plan, now doesn't it?

"Typically, the GM has a play in the first selection or two, the ones that bring the most promising players."

Maybe so, but even then isn't he pretty much dependent on the quality of his scouting and draft organization? If their player rankings suck, isn't the GM going to then be reduced to choosing the smallest piece of crap out of a pile of manure? Do you really think Bowden had ever even heard of Ross Detwiler before someone in the organization came up to him and said "We should go after this guy"?

Smirkman, you make very good points and i agree with all of them. That said, those guys are not all stars so its arguable as to the value of that trade.

The point that you did bring up was from the signing of Guzman. Many people argue that we need to raise payroll, presumably by bringing in free agents. Not only do big money free agents cost a bundle (as Teddy and Stan will be quick to point out) but they also block younger guys who may have value, and they can steal draft picks. I ask everyone to keep that in mind as they pine for Hunter, Jones, and the rest.

"Do you really think Bowden had ever even heard of Ross Detwiler before someone in the organization came up to him and said 'We should go after this guy'?"

In today's environment, probably more than you'd think. While yes, the quality of scouting plays a large role, GMs do get a chance to actually see some of the big prospects play with their own eyes.

I'd contest the Belisle is better than any starting pitcher that Bowden's ever drafted contention though. Aside from the optimism about our current arms, Tomko was a fairly high-end starter (certainly at a higher level than Belisle) for quite some time before falling off and ruining his career stats.
________

OK, you got me. Still, don't hate me if I'm not doing jumping jacks for a guy who's high water mark is Brett Tomko.

ok ladies im finally headin out to the new park 2night. ill give ya a full honest report tomorrow.
(nice bk 2 bk btw, nats v santana 2night and then off to verizon tomorrow night for the comebk.)

Joebleux, I should have counted (or at least re-read) before that post, it didn't come out the way I intended and you were right to call me on it.

And, upon further review, while I stand by my general point about the draft being a crapshoot, it does indeed appear that the Braves are better at shooting crap than Jimbo (and his staff, scouts, etc.) were in Cinci.

And of course we're all too high on Detwiler, Smoker, McGeary et al. But so is Baseball America. It's the nature of the beast. Ian Desmond (sorry, that'd be "Diamond" Ian Desmond) is the next Derek Jeter, until 15 minutes later when he proves that he's not.

OK, 15 minutes is an exaggeration, but look what we've all been wrong about even just over the past 2 months:

1. Dmitri Young is our starting 1b. Who knows whether Nick will ever come back?

2. Belliard is our starting 2b.

3. Guzman's 2007 start was a fluke (Hendo and possibly a few others believed, but a lot of us might be eating crow on that one, including me.)

4. Patterson is our Opening Day Starter. (Now he's one of several new verbs.)

5. Lo Duca and Estrada will improve our offense from the catcher slot. (Now we all love Nieves!)

@dk - Would you like to buy a vowel?

I assume the GM is in charge of the whole operation--hires the scouting director and the scouts and has bottom line on more or less every acquisition the team makes. He sets the organizational philosophy for how and who to acquire (toolsy guys who look the part vs. sabermetric studs, for example). And I think it's fair to hold the GM responsible for the outcomes.

Bur really, this isn't rocket science. It isn't THAT complicated. I assume since this is the GM's full-time job (what do they do all day?) that he has a first-hand opinion of every pretty much every player he signs.

Another thing to consider is the owner's willingness to sign players above slot money...Sowers, for instance, didnt sign and was eventually a 1st round pick of the Indians.

My concern about Bowden would be his willingness to trade propects for players, lose draft picks by signing type A/B free agents and not continually building from within. All questions that obviously cant be answered immediately.

Bowden may have been a lone cowboy in the drafts until last year, but they created a huge, overhauled team of scouts last year.

Barry even wrote about the heated but healthy and smart debates among a table of, what, 8-10 of the best guys in scouting?

I'm not sure nowadays that Bowden deserves either extreme--praise or hate--for drafts, or even trades.

cont'd...
Bowden can probably take credit for savvy negotiating but not so much anymore for the actual picking of players.

"I assume since this is the GM's full-time job (what do they do all day?)"

SOMEONE has to take the Segway in for its scheduled maintenance. I haven't noticed all that many Segway shops in the area, so at 12 mph you could waste half a day just riding it back and forth to the shop. And the Lerners are so cheap, getting the rental replacement Segway while it's getting worked on is totally out of the question. So you've got to sit there and wait, dependent on the WiFi at the Segway shop to get anything productive done. It's a wonder we can even field a team!

Bowden can probably take credit for savvy negotiating
Posted by: NatsNut | April 23, 2008 1:36 PM

and let us not ever forget the incredible haul bowden received in return for a-soriano.
oh thats right, he got nuthin back-NUTHIN FOR ONE OF THE BEST PLAYERS IN THE GAME AT THE TIME--NUTHIN, the greedy sob.

Jordan Zimmermann and Josh Smoker beg to differ

Jordan Zimmermann and Josh Smoker beg to differ
Posted by: Nothing for Soriano? | April 23, 2008 1:45 PM

youre kiddin right? thats the best u can come with? 2 longshots playin A ball for soriano.
first off bowden didnt get those, them came via baseball rules.
2nd, for a player such as soriano you should get 4 or 5 players in return, which is what most people were offering, but that still wasnt good enough for mr b.

look at what bedard and santana etc brought back.
2 players in A ball???
gimmie a break.
what a freakin waste!!!

soriano should have and would have fetched at least 2 stars or at least 2 ready major leagues to go along with at least 2 probably 3 prospects.
how do you end up with nuthin, NUTHIN, 2 A BALLERS FOR ONE OF THE BIGGEST STARS IN THE GAME MR B!!!>>>

BA's player rankings are all about potential. That's why their high end propects are all young and in the lower minors. As all players play the game longer they become exposed. So take those BA rankings with a large grain of salt. The Nat's high ranking by BA just means we have a lot of young players with a lot of potential. But, of course we did not even have that until this year. Good example is Ian Desmond even though he has fallen down the rankings in the organization, he is still the best SS in the system. But, his flaws have been exposed.

"Jordan Zimmermann and Josh Smoker beg to differ

Posted by: Nothing for Soriano? | April 23, 2008 1:45 PM "

Draft picks are great, and prospects are nice to think about, but, in terms of numbers, pitchers fail to pan out at a high rate coming through minors. If one of those guys is a regular in a major league rotation he will have beaten the odds. John Rauch was BA's #1 prospect in all of baseball at one time. While he is a good set up guy, hard to say he's met that level of expectation.

Does anyone remember what Bowden turned down for Soriano? I remember Maybin rumors, but I forget if he was asking or they were offering.

"soriano should have and would have fetched at least 2 stars or at least 2 ready major leagues to go along with at least 2 probably 3 prospects."

Yeah, we were just chomping at the bit to do that. We are not that stupid.

*excluding the recently fired Mr. Krivsky

can i ask again, then... do you, dk (or anyone else), have any knowledge of any deal offered for soriano that bowden declined?

remember, part of the concept was they wanted to get more from trading him than they got in draft picks. so did someone offer something better? i never saw a better offer even rumored, but maybe i'm not remembering it right or i missed it.

as far as what santana and bedard brought back, those are significantly different situations. (a) both happened in the offseason, (b) bedard had two full seasons of team control left, santana a full season, (c) soriano would have been a 2-3 month rental, since he had made it clear he would not resign with who he was traded to because he intended to hit the FA market (contrasted to santana who would only waive his no-trade clause if he got at least a 7yr/20m+ per year deal *in advance* of the trade).

let's at least compare apples to apples. you have to compare soriano to a player who's got half a season left on the contract, traded mid-season, and who was definitely going to be a FA and wouldn't negotiate during that last couple of months.

desmond also dropped in the rankings because he was compared to crappier players in 04/05 than he is now because they've added better quality prospects in the system.

dk, they weren't trading Soriano under contract for 3-5 years, they were trading half a season of him, and they concluded that the prospects they would be in position to draft were better than the prospects they were being offered for him at the time.

231 and others beat me to the punch. I don't think we would have turned down Maybin for Soriano, but I don't have knowledge of any specific offers. Maybe MLBTradeRumors has something in the archives. I'll check later.

RosenRosen says Cashman might be available here:

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/8059584/Baby-Boss-could-cost-Yanks-their-GM

Any takers?

Meanwhile, back at the ranch...new post up.

i cant remember specifics either at this point except that there was lots of interest and lots of packages being bandied about. and i remember interviews with bowden and he was grinnin like a cat in the catbird seat.

ill never forget all the articles abut how excited he was and at the same time all the articles that kept stating that other teams were complaining that bowden wanted a kings ransom for soriano. and in the end his greed won over and we ended up with nuthin.

and he had the nerve to come back after all the deals fell through and say we're glad he's still with us and we all go to the park to see him play and hopefully he'll sign with us long term blah bblah blah when every1 knew that was a crock.

Bob L. - I forget which way the Maybin rumor went, but I think perhaps Bowden asked for Maybin and was told to take a hike. Maybe that is consistent with what Barry said about Jim B.'s approach to trades - ask for the moon because sometimes you get it.

I'll repost this the next thread, but I did go back to MLB Trade Rumors. Plug Alfonso Sorian into their search engine, I got this result -
http://tinyurl.com/3s3pc9

I don't know how accurate these rumors are, but:
1) from the White Sox the site reported a package centered on Brandon McCarthy (then about #40 on BA's prospect list, eventually dealt for Danks, subsequently developed injury issues), but a subsequent story had Ken williams denying it and saying Josh Fields was also of the table. Apparently Bowden asked for Lance Broadway, perhaps to unite the Broadways? I'll take Zimmerman and Smoker over this stuff;
2) Angels - Jeff Mathis and Erick Aybar (buy would those two look good here now!), also Dallas McPherson (who has not panned out due to injuries, but at one time was a top 10 prospect).
Also Astros were reproted as interested, as well as the Twins.