Zim, Kearns and Faith
I was sitting with someone for a couple innings in the stands last night at Shea Stadium, and around the sixth inning, he said, "Ladies and gentleman, Mike Pelfrey." But couldn't it have been, "Ladies and gentleman, the Washington Nationals"?
This team is, um, sputtering offensively. And let's look at the reasons why. It's not Cristian Guzman (.333, but with just one out). It's not Lastings Milledge (.309/.361/.455, though I'm not quite sure what he's doing on the bases sometimes). It's not Nick Johnson (.420 OBP, .529 OBP with runners in scoring position).
Nope, let's look at the third hitter and the fifth hitter. That would be Ryan Zimmerman (.211/.242/.368) and Austin Kearns (.217/.368/.261).
Tuesday night's 6-0 loss to the Mets featured both of these men and their struggles. They combined to go 0 for 8. Kearns grounded into one double play. Zimmerman twice came up with a runner on third and less than two outs, and twice he failed to score the runner. They have 11 RBI on the year.
I did not speak with Kearns after Tuesday's game. He is now 3 for 16 with runners in scoring position, 0 for his last 10.
I did, however, speak with Zimmerman. This is the guy upon whom much expectations are heaped. He is now 1 for 17 with runners in scoring position. I told him those numbers. "Really?" he said. Here's what he said earlier in the interview.
On the first at-bat, with the bases loaded in the third: "I had a good pitch to hit with the bases loaded. ... I just hit it straight up in the air."
The second at-bat with runners in scoring position, he scalded one sinker from Aaron Heilman down the right-field line. Given how this season is going, it naturally fell foul. He then popped up. Again.
I asked if he felt like he was pressing with runners in scoring position. "No. I've hit the ball well. ... I feel comfortable. That's all that matters. The numbers obviously aren't where I want them to be, but you have one good game, one good series, and you're right back to where you want to be because it's so early."
Manny Acta, on those situations and whether Zimmerman is pressing: "I don't think so," Acta said. "Unless I can't read him. He's been pretty normal in those type of situations. You know what? I'll be the last guy to complain about Zimmerman. We won four games, and he won three of those four games. He would be the wrong guy for me to complain about."
Kearns, of course, could be labeled as big a culprit, and there are probably more long-term concerns about him. I'll check in with him tomorrow on his struggles. He's certainly frustrated by them.
Ronnie Belliard is, too, struggling at .200 with a .265 OBP. Wily Mo Pena singled in his last at-bat Tuesday night, and is now 1 for 8. Still early for him.
There is, too, the fact that this club is getting very little off the bench right now. Rob Mackowiak doesn't have a hit in 10 at-bats. Aaron Boone has three hits in the two games in which he's started, no hits in any appearances coming off the bench. Dmitri Young is on the disabled list. Felipe Lopez is hitting .200, has no extra-base hits and appears lost.
What to make of it all?
I'd ask three questions:
1. Do you have confidence in Zimmerman turning it around?
2. Do you have confidence in Kearns turning it around?
3. Do you have confidence in the Nationals' offense - period?
Oh, and by the way, there's a notebook.
By Barry Svrluga |
April 16, 2008; 6:33 AM ET
Previous: Bowden: Hill tentatively starting Saturday |
Next: Let's chat at 2 p.m.
Posted by: joemktg | April 16, 2008 7:00 AM
AND WHERE IS EVERYONE? If Barry can rise and shine and pump out an entry, we should be right there. Grab the Vente and fire up the laptop. Lesssgo, peeps.
Posted by: joemktg | April 16, 2008 7:17 AM
read my comments in all caps on the last thread.
the problem is this team doesn't have the depth to endure any middle of the order slumps like this. but there are so many great player playing poorly to start this season (as usual). one can only hope that these guys start to click at the same time and we get the opposite streak.
Posted by: 231 | April 16, 2008 7:22 AM
"The numbers obviously aren't where I want them to be, but you have one good game, one good series, and you're right back to where you want to be because it's so early."
Amen, baby!
Posted by: Jose Reyes | April 16, 2008 7:37 AM
1) Yes, Zimmerman will bounce back.
2) Nope, in the 2.5 years AK has been here he has yet to show me anything that would merit his salary or PT.
3) The potential is there, I think once WMP gets in the swing of things that should open the offense a little bit.
I would hope once Dukes can return that they give him some time in right, watching Flopez and AK not do anything but continue to get time is starting to wear thin....
Posted by: CB | April 16, 2008 7:50 AM
The promise of Kearns seems to be that he hit .315 his first year in the league. He's averaged about .250 in 6-7 seasons since then. I think he's shown what he is going to produce, which isn't all that great. Maybe they go with this guy through the rest of the season, but at that point they have to pull the trigger.
Posted by: Ed | April 16, 2008 8:00 AM
1) Zimmerman will be fine. He's going to end up with good numbers at the end of the year.
2) Kearns is what he is, a .265 to .270 hitter with 20 or so homers and 75-80 RBI.
3) Despite the recent bad times, I have confidence that this team will perform better offensively than last year's team did. A bigger concern for me is finding a way to get our starters into the seventh inning on a consistent basis. If we keep seeing 5-6 inning appearances, the bullpen is going to be burned out before summer gets here.
Posted by: TJh | April 16, 2008 8:02 AM
1. I'm not worried about Zimm. I don't want him to start pressing. He just needs to keep up with everyday work and practice and studying pitchers.
2. I'm only a little worried about Kearns. I'd like to know what he's doing to work on the situation. I don't want him to start pressing during the games, but during the rest of the time I'd like to know if he's working hard or hardly working.
3. My lack of confidence in the Nationals offense is based entirely on the fact that Pena, Dukes, and Young have been on the DL to open the season. If they'd been available in the pinch or as regulars, I think a lot more Nats outs could have become hits. I don't have the same confidence in Boone, Rob Mack'k, or Willie Harris.
Schneider's performance last night was (according to the gamer) outstanding and not at all surprising. Having him gone really, really smarts today. Not just his bat (not something I ever thought I'd say), but his glove and his pitcher-handling skills.
Posted by: i hate walks | April 16, 2008 8:05 AM
A wise man once said "At the end of the year, the .300 hitters will be hitting .300, and the .250 hitters will be hitting .250."
Or .275, in Zimmerman's case. The latter would be Kearns.
And if, by "have confidence in," you mean do I think they're good, then no, not really. I'm still optimistic enough for 85 wins, but that was always, well, optimistic.
Posted by: CE | April 16, 2008 8:06 AM
Also, I notice no average for NJ. Nick's played well but Dimitri gave them more at the plate last year. Of course, we have to wait and see what happens.
Posted by: Ed | April 16, 2008 8:06 AM
Wow, you're strict, dawg.
************
Maybe they go with this guy through the rest of the season, but at that point they have to pull the trigger.
Posted by: Ed | April 16, 2008 8:00 AM
Posted by: EDukes | April 16, 2008 8:08 AM
"the problem is this team doesn't have the depth to endure any middle of the order slumps like this."
Well said, 231.
Posted by: i hate walks | April 16, 2008 8:08 AM
Thanks for the shout, Barry, but I've decided not to run for mayor anymore.
Posted by: Faith | April 16, 2008 8:13 AM
Barry,
As you note these guys aren't hitting, and haven't been for a while now. Don't they have an instructor or coach for such things?
As you seem to be a stats guy with access to past records, can you crunch the numbers on how this team has hit under their current hitting coach as compared to the former hitting coach? It seems in my muddled memory that their offensive woes began (or at least became entrenched) around the time of that change. Do the numbers back it up?
Posted by: Deep Fried Screech | April 16, 2008 8:17 AM
I admit I got pretty frustrated last night with Zimm and Kearns. Then I decided I was making too much out of it all, and I am just going to watch this team for what is: My team, that is not very good right now, but it's still baseball.
I just hope that despite what Zimm is saying, he is actually working to improve. I suspect he is.
As for Kearns, I feel for the guy. He is a good guy and he is just struggling at the plate. I am not sure I have any confidence in him anymore.
The offense as a whole, we shall see. If Wily Mo can rev it up, we'll be okay. If he isn't going to hit those 40 homers we are in serious trouble.
Posted by: GoNats | April 16, 2008 8:20 AM
Not that they're pressing, but ...
Over/under on how many more games until they bring back the health food, take away the beer, and turn off the clubhouse music?
Posted by: MIB | April 16, 2008 8:21 AM
There has been talk about Zimmerman closing the gap with Wright this year -- and Zimm's start this year is reminiscent of that one terrible start that Wright had before tearing up the league. I sure hope that happens.
If Milledge can be our Reyes and Zimmerman our Wright-- and not emulate the Mets in any other way -- we'll be heading in the right direction.
Posted by: GoNats | April 16, 2008 8:25 AM
I would be interested to hear what Lenny Harris has to say about all of this and what he is doing to work with these guys. I don't have any confidence in Kearns turning it around. His approach at the plate is awful, he is not attacking the ball and his hands are weak. He is always behind, partly because he makes a circle with his hands as he goes into his swing and his swing is too long. I haven't seen anything that Harris is doing anything to help these guys either.
Posted by: Coverage is lacking | April 16, 2008 8:26 AM
the offense is plain terrible. i've said it on and off for a long time now. zimmerman is not a number three hitter. he hits third on this team and we all want him to be the redskins quarterback but this offense is terrible. kearns and nick johnson can get on base a lot with walks, great. but hitting 3-5 somebody in there better start driving in runs. cause we surely don't have anyone 6-9 that can.
what's our team batting ave with the bases loaded? i've seen one inning where we hit, first game 9th inning at philly where it was double after double. it's a long season but this has also been going on a long time now. now we need wily mo and dukes to produce but they were supposed to be the icing, not the cake. can't rely on that.
milledge is impressing me at the plate (although lackadaisical at times in the field) and guzman looks good to go. i still think we resign him for a couple years. zimmerman's glove is top notch. but this team has last place written all over it. to me thats a big disappointment. if zimmerman is this slow a starter every year it's gonna get old fast. dmitri and felipe need to show up. bergman? you reading this? sure would be nice to see you up here also.
i'm afraid this team has regressed sharply. as so many of us say here, the peaks and valleys balance out. agreed, but maybe this is just making up for last years play above expectations...
Posted by: longterm | April 16, 2008 8:28 AM
I have confidence that Zim will turn it around. I have lost confidence in Kearns. The offense as a whole should come around with warm weather and Dukes back and perhaps Meat. I am more disapointed in the pitching and maybe those callups from Columbus will come sooner rather than later.
Posted by: Section 204 Row K Seat 11 | April 16, 2008 8:36 AM
longterm, I pretty much agree with you.
I think what we will see, as the year slowly progresses, is that Milledge will solidify himself. For our longterm prospects, that is pretty much as important a development as there can be.
I just hope being on a losing team doesn't take away his spirit.
I feel I can say with certainty that Lastings and Zimm are the only 2 current members of the Nats major league roster that will be around when we win the pennant someday. I would love for Pena to join that list -- but we will know that by the end of the year.
Posted by: GoNats | April 16, 2008 8:36 AM
So how is the clubhouse? Zimm said he and some other veterans would be taking more charge, but that's tough to do when you're the one hitting bupkis w/RISP. Or a veteran but new, infamously off the juice, and even the beat writer refers to you as "Captain Red Ass."
Qui custodiet custodiam?
That's Latin for "Who cleans the janitor?"
Posted by: MIB | April 16, 2008 8:38 AM
Latin? Latin!?!?! There's no latin in baseball! (unless it's latin-american)
Posted by: GoNats | April 16, 2008 8:42 AM
My manager was Rogers Hornsby, and he called me a walking talking pile of pig[stuff]. Did I speak Latin? NO!
Posted by: JDuggan | April 16, 2008 8:46 AM
Zimmerman will turn it around, Austin Kearns Sucks and Id rather have Dukes starting (want to see how he does), and for gods sake can they bring up Maxwell. Our Bench blows! And no, mackiowak want break out of his slump because hes NOT a major league player.
Posted by: The BigC from DC | April 16, 2008 8:47 AM
Though I'm not calling for Lenny Harris's head yet (506!) I am a little skeptical of him.
It does seem like hitting slumps didn't last so long with Mitchell Paige, though I admit I wasn't paying quite so close attention to him back then.
Those of you who remember better, wouldn't have Paige been all over Kearnsy and fixed it in a heartbeat?
Posted by: NatsNut | April 16, 2008 8:48 AM
These are major league hitters, with all sorts of technology and feedback. Their slumps are on them. That being said, you hear time and time again how a particular coach really helped a particular all-star. No way Bowden sits idly for long. Harris will be gone.
Posted by: GoNats | April 16, 2008 8:53 AM
i think we all kinda knew this was gonna happen when schneider left. still i support that trade. our offense was historically terrible last year. so, the pitching staff is easiest to blame for the difference.
simply put cordero/hill/bergmann/schneider have not shown up so the results should not be a surprise as we relied heavily on them last year. only schneider has given us something to look forward to and that cost us his absence. lo duca? please.
GoNats, i'm hoping flores is part of that pennant too but I know what you mean now that he's in the minors.
Posted by: longterm | April 16, 2008 8:55 AM
longterm, absolutely! My apologies to Jesus since he isn't on the MLB roster.
Posted by: GoNats | April 16, 2008 8:57 AM
Confidence in Zim: Yes
Confidence in Kearns, Pena, Lopez (otherwise known as Jimbo's Mediocre Cincinnati Reds East Coast version: No
Milledge will make one bonehead play for every good play he makes. Will show just enough talent to tantalize, just enough stupidity to frustrate.
Confidence in Lenny Harris: No
Confidence in Jim Bowden: No
Those young pitchers at Columbus better be ready to pitch a lot of 1-0 shutouts because this lineup is weak.
Posted by: Vandy | April 16, 2008 9:06 AM
I was a big fan of Mitchell Paige, and I remember thinking that team hitting had fallen off sharply after his departure. I was not a fan of Lenny Harris at all until this year when I realized that he is on the short list of all-time great pinch-hitters. I think Harris is a great asset to this team, but I'd like to see the Nats get a true hitting coach that can work magic with bats the way St. Claire does with arms.
Posted by: i hate walks | April 16, 2008 9:11 AM
This is what you get with a bottom-of-the barell payroll. What did you all expect, a winning baseball team? Please.
Posted by: Lerners ARE Cheap | April 16, 2008 9:13 AM
Confidence in Zimmerman - to a degree, but not to live up the the expectations that people have thrust upon him
Confidence in Kearns - No.
Confidence in Pena - Yes.
There is no getting around it, our hitting is terrible. Everyone has been so worried about our pitching staff, but they have put us in a position to hae a winning record so far this year, and our bats have consistently let it slip away.
Maybe its a slump? Doubtful.
Take a closer look at what is going on: Our batters are developing bad habits; not just merely slumping. Someone has already mentioned Kearns's awkward and ineffective swing. Zimmerman has been chasing pitches. Hell, almost all of them have been chasing pitches except Johnson. Manny needs to establish a rule that says: "If anyone swings at a first pitch, they report to the park 2 hours earlier the next day."
I too would like to know more about what, if anything, Lenny Harris is doing outside of gametime. These batters are not only NOT improving, they are actually getting worse. Is he not teaching them anything? Or worse, is he teaching them poorly?
For example, Milledge, who has had the absolute least amount of time being taught nder Harris than any other active National, has the highest average with RISP. Coincidence?
Our bench? laughable. Manny should just forego pinch hitting because it is a guaranteed out. Hell, just let the pitcher stay in there and swing away. At least Perez got a base hit last night.
Posted by: Tipp | April 16, 2008 9:17 AM
"simply put cordero/hill/bergmann/schneider have not shown up"
I think Schneider has an excuse for not showing up. He's on the Mets now.
Posted by: Anonymous | April 16, 2008 9:18 AM
"I had a good pitch to hit with the bases loaded. ... I just hit it straight up in the air."
Really? You pop up a pitch to the opposite side, and it was a good pitch?
Combined with his statement last week about how he thinks he's having a good approach at the plate, I'm starting to think he's delusional!
Posted by: Chris | April 16, 2008 9:19 AM
Zim: Yes
Kearns: Defensively, yes, offensively, no. He would be a solid 4th outfielder but, he is not a solid starter.
I think the offense will come around. We lack power in the lineup in a big way. Kearns, Zim and NJ are not power hitters. When WMP gets back in the groove and Elijah gets back off the DL, I think this team will improve greatly.
Bottom line, even though they frustrate the crap at times, this is my hometown team and I will stick with them through thick and thin. Go Nats!
Posted by: Section 505/203 | April 16, 2008 9:26 AM
A tragedy after the Nats' game yesterday.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/04/16/shea.death/index.html Can anyone say "excessive alcohol consumption?"
Posted by: rbpalmer | April 16, 2008 9:26 AM
Apparently, the link I tried to post http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/04/16/shea.death/index.html
didn't work. Anyway, the story, on CNN.com, said that somebody fell the equivalent of about four stories, to his death, after trying to slide down an escalator after the game. A truly senseless and tragic death.
Posted by: rbpalmer | April 16, 2008 9:31 AM
As always, I'll write my own response before reading others:
Yes, Yes, No
Zimmerman looks likely to slump for a while. He needs to shorten up and bring it under control. Kearns is not going to be a super star - ever - but he is better than this. Should not be batting 4th/5th. Currently has an .071 batting average vs. LHP. That won't last. But not driving the ball at all from either side. I think both of them can be coached out of their slumps.
As for the offense in general, it is not very good and is not going to get good. It might get hot, but it won't get good - this year. Johnson is the best hitter, but he should not be batting cleanup. Having a great OBP with runners in scoring position is not nearly as good as having a good slugging percentage with runners in scoring position. It just means that he's taking a walk and leaving it up to Kearns - who is slumping. Pena could get hot and help, but contact is important. Dukes might have the most potential, but he's not playing.
Of course we're not losing 3-0 and 3-2. We're losing 6-0 and 10-2. So you really can't blame the offense alone. Pitchers have to keep it close.
And they need to stop trying to steal at stupid times. Milledge isn't the only one.
Posted by: NatBisquit | April 16, 2008 9:33 AM
1. I'm cautiously optimistic about Zimmerman long-term. I just don't think he's a #3 hitter (on a good team) at this point in his career. He did hit a rope down the RF that was foul by inches in a clutch situation, but couldn't straighten it out in that at-bat. His 2008 start reminds me of 2007 when he also started slowly and looked to hit everything to the opposite field.
2. Lost hope in Kearns. A .250 average and 16-20 HRs is not a #5 hitter on a MLB team. Not sure I see much reason for optimism here.
3. The hitting in general is weak, but they should be able to string together some hits with Milledge, Guzman, Zimmerman and Johnson. If Dmitri gets in shape, he could help off the bench. Wily Mo's still a project, as is Dukes. Not sure what we can reasonably expect out of this offensive unit. There are just too many holes right now. Maybe Captain Red Ass needs to push them a bit more.
Posted by: Brant Alyea | April 16, 2008 9:40 AM
You know, in other cities where they actually have good baseball coverage, there are bona fide members of the media who opine on the questions Barry is asking. I mean, there are actually guys in the media who have experience watching tens of hundreds of games and who have learned from those who play the game how to pick up on the little things that we in the general public might not appreciate, and that might inform the analysis Barry is asking us to perform. Some of those guys even know what they are talking about!
Now, Barry is a reporter so it's not his job to do something like call BS on Zimm when he says he got a good pitch to hit and just popped it up. Nor is it Barry's job to break down Kearns's swing and tell us whether he thinks there's any hope. I do like it when Barry ventures into the realm of opinion on this blog, as he did for example in saying that Felipe "appears lost." But wouldn't it be nice to actually have someone really writing about this stuff, and giving us a bit more information to chew on?
Posted by: Coverage is lacking | April 16, 2008 9:50 AM
i'm sorry, what's BS about saying you got a good pitch to hit and just popped it up? are you saying it wasn't a good pitch? or that he didn't pop it up? he essentially said that he blew it, that the pitch was there and he missed it. he didn't say he had a good swing at it. how is that BS?
lots of valid things to complain about, but the two comments about that here make no sense at all to me.
Posted by: 231 | April 16, 2008 9:53 AM
The offense will come around... it takes time. Unfortunately, we have to sit and watch and wait for that to happen. Zim will get his, he seems to start slow each year. At least we have gotten some game winners from him. Kearns? I have two thoughts... hope for Dukes to get healthy? The other... he seemed to go through this last year, and got out of his funk in August? (the memory is short). What did he and Lenny Harris do last year to help.
It certainly was frustrating to watch our batters get their bats sawed off at the handle by Pelfrey. Keep your eye on the long haul, or the short term will drive you crazy!
Posted by: old 425 | April 16, 2008 9:57 AM
Won't hear me complaining if they devote more columnists.
Someone asked about Page and Harris and I'm a glutton for pain, so here you go, the AVG breakdowns for the two (took too much time to do SLG and OBP too).
2008: 108 - 467 (.231)
Harris 2007: 1127 - 4278 (.263)
Total Harris: 1235 - 4745 (.260)
Page 2007: 288 - 1242 (.232)
2006: 1437 - 5495 (.262)
Total Page: 1725 - 6737 (.256)
Posted by: Section 506 (Before moving) | April 16, 2008 10:00 AM
#1 NO -
last night after pelfrey looked to be losing control walking milledge to load the bases...RZ pops up the 1st pitch. He seems to be in denial that there is anything wrong.
#2 NO -
Tired of waiting for Kearns to rise above mediocrity.
#3 NO - With these guys as our #3 and #4 hitters, that kinda answers question #3.
everyone looks too content..i'd like to see someone throw their helmet after leaving guys on base for the umpteenth straight time on a team with a 4-10 record.
Posted by: pk | April 16, 2008 10:01 AM
231, that's kind of my point. To me, it didn't look like a good pitch; it looked like a pitcher's pitch, and to me, it looks like Zimm has been getting himself out by swinging at pitcher's pitches throughout the first two weeks of the season. I think he is rationalizing the fact that he has been going after bad pitches. Now I played baseball for a good portion of my young adult life, but by no means do I consider myself a professional at breaking this stuff down, though I try to watch with a close eye. And you might disagree with me on whether he has been swinging at bad pitches or not, and that would be fine. My point is simply that we could all benefit from additional insight from members of the media on this kind of thing, and we don't get it here.
Posted by: Coverage is lacking | April 16, 2008 10:04 AM
Hoping that this is all a prolonged spell of funk and loathing.
Everyone has loaded Zimmerman with the expectation of being a superstar. But management didn't negotiate a new contract with their poster child. Hmmm. What did they know? So they are telling the man "Produce" and we'll negotiate. And he's way under .250. Gotta hope, for his sake that he pulls out. He plays with grace, but fielding is not the only thing we need.
Kearns is the guy that the coaches love to love. Because he does everything right. You want him to have a breakout season. Really. Root for the man. But is he really any more than a fine-fielding 7-8 batter?
By any statistical model, by any logical model, or by experience, this team has to have a better offense than last years.
Is it possible that, even though he was an all time great pinch hitter, Lenny Harris can't TEACH the boys to hit. We need a teacher. Manny is a good coach --- he didn't have a star-spangled career as a player.
Hit Natty hit.
Posted by: Natty Dread | April 16, 2008 10:08 AM
one more thing (am i ranting?)
what's all this talk about "its just a slow start" ? they will come around.
that was the problem last year ---by the time everyone got over the slow start, we were buried in last place - and a great finish was still not enough to get us within sniffing distance of .500.
Posted by: pk | April 16, 2008 10:09 AM
From Barry's gamer:
"The Mets haven't hit, so they shook up their lineup. The bullpen looks shaky."
Hmmm. They shook up the lineup, huh? The Mets, who were 5-6 coming into the game, shook up their lineup. Meanwhile, the Nats, losers of 9 in a row before hanging on to a win on Sunday, have yet to shake up their lineup.
Now, I don't know how the Nats could shake up the lineup considering over half of their starters aren't hitting, but something needs to be done. Either move Zim from the #3 spot, or sit him for a game. Regardless of what he or Acta says, he is pressing.
How's this for a shakeup:
2B Lopez
C LoDuca
CF Milledge
1B Johnson
3B Zimmerman
SS Guzman
LF Pena
RF Kearns
P tbd
As for Pena, he's played 2 games so far. He missed the last week or two of Spring Training and only rehabbed in one or two games. I'm willing to give him a pass for the next week or two before condemning him. He does need to play everyday, though.
Once Dukes is healthy, if WMP is starting to hit the ball, then I'd try an outfield of WMP in left, Milledge in center and Dukes in right, with Kearns off the bench as a defensive replacement late in the game.
And let's not forget what a decent job Odalis did for us again last night. A few too many pitches (over 100 in only 6 IP), but he still kept the Nats in the game late. Take away the one truly bad start in STL, and he's been pitching pretty darn good:
18.2 IP, 16 H, 5 ER, 5 BB, 11 SO, 2.41 ERA
Once again, the bullpen failed when we needed them to hold the fort. They can not keep giving up runs late in the game. There's a big difference between being down 2 going into the last couple of innings (especially against the Mets bullpen) and being down 4 or 6.
Posted by: e | April 16, 2008 10:16 AM
I love the guy but something about Zim's comments doesn't sit right. He either sounds defensive, or in denial, or too lax or something.
We see Zim's 0-for-A-Lot, and he says "really? I think i'm hitting well."
Manny does it too sometimes. I understand being guarded with the media and not letting public opinion get to you, but COME ON. SOMETHING sucks. Give us a real answer. We're not idiots.
Posted by: NatsNut | April 16, 2008 10:16 AM
Acknowledging that we have a problem is a start. To address Mr. Svrluga's' question:
Zimm: some confidence - he needs support a good five or six hitter
Kearns: no - for two years I have watched him fall across the plate when he swings.
Pena: some confidence - give him a year at least - Manny why are you batting him 7 - so he gets better pitches??? - I thought you wanted him to drive in runs.
Guzman: yes
Milledge: yes but enough with the brain cramps.
Johnson: yes a good five or six hitter
Dukes : yes, although I have not seen him play but I understand he has potential.
LoDuca: no
Estrada: pinch hitter no more
Harris: no
Rob Mack.... : no no no no
Boone: no
Lopez: no
Belliard: no - bench player at best
Young : yes can hit
Bowden: no
Lenny Harris : no
Acta: Has nothing to work with but Milledge's mistakes are Manny's responsibility . He needs to deal with Milledge's antics.
I will leave the pitching for another day. They are not the reason for this wreck. Bowden needs to own up and do something. Get rid of all or some of the "no's". You replace them with some youngster's who have some potential.
I can watch losing if they demonstrate the potential to get better. I have watched this team for 30 years so i am used to losing but hope would be nice.
Bowden is trying to use "smoke and mirrors" with this crap. For that he should be fired. He should show more respect to the fans. Some examples of what Bowden could do. He should play Dues in right when he gets back. If you want to keep Kearns you play him as a defensive replacement and pitch hitter - he replaces Harris. You trade Belliard for prospect. In spring training there was interest in him. You replace him with Desmond with Lopez the back-up. Maybe trade Lopez or waive Lopez. I will wager you could send Lopez down and not one would claim him. If you want to save money bring up Maxwell and waive Lopez and Kearns, hoping someone claims them. If Bowden was serious he would make some hard decisions and waive his favorites who are doing nothing ( IE Kearns , Lopez, Belliard, Harris, Mackowiack, etc.
Posted by: mjames | April 16, 2008 10:16 AM
But look on the bright side.
At least we're not paying anyone what a certain Cubs outfielder gets for frequent disabled list visits.
For the price, even Dmitri compares well to Soriano.
Posted by: Natty Dread | April 16, 2008 10:17 AM
See above comparison of Harris and Page and note that Harris is 4 (insignificant) points higher than Page was WITH Alfonso Soriano and Nick Johnson and Jose Vidro.
Posted by: Section 506 (Before moving) | April 16, 2008 10:18 AM
I am tired of Zimmerman saying how great things are. I agree that he will be fine for the season, but if I were 1 for 17 with RISP I would be angry at myself. I would definitely know about it. Of course I don't want him to press, but I'd like to see just a LITTLE fire.
I agree about Kearns. Should not be part of the plan. I don't think Ed was harsh at all.
The bench is god awful. Rob needs to be sent down.
I'd also like to see a shakeup with the lineup. Maybe:
Guzman
Belliard
Johnson
Zimmerman
Milledge
Pena
Kearns
Lo Duca
P
I think Belly would start producing more if he wasn't mired in the bottom(less pit) of the order.
The offense can't get much worse but I don't see it getting too much better without some changes.
Probably my only complaint about Manny is his tendency to have an idea in his head about players and not change it. He's branded Zim as the 3rd spot, Kearns as one of our best players, Johnson as our cleanup, etc. I also think he gives too much leeway to veterans who have 'earned it' in the past.
Posted by: nattaboy | April 16, 2008 10:19 AM
I do think Zimm will improve over where he is. He has a lot of work to do to prove he is a #3 hitter on a winning team. I think he can be a Wright-like hitter but is quite a ways from that so far.
Kearns - I think he also will improve but I feel like he has had quite a while in the bigs and is so far a .265/22/89 hitter. Those three numbers are well below average, average and average among starters in the NL. Corner OF is supposed to be above average, especially on a winning team. His defense is fantastic and underrated and I love the guy's attitude but he has not proven he deserves to be a starting RF and #5 hitter on a good MLB team. Sorry, just the facts as I see it. I don't know the history of players significantly improving after 3+ years in the bigs (I don't think it's great) but that's what he needs to do.
Our lineup is week. We have a high OBP, high walk, low power guy hitting clean up, a slightly above average power guy in the 3 hole and an average hitter in the 5 hole. That's not going to get it done. That will struggle to break .500 which is what I think they will do.
This team has a long way to go to compete w/ Phillies, Mets, Braves - let alone try ot beat an AL team in the Series.
But, I'm enjoying the ride!
Posted by: Avar | April 16, 2008 10:19 AM
1. Zimm will turn it around, but I'm concerned by his statement, "I feel comfortable. That's all that matters." I understand not wanting to mess with your approach just becuase you've hit a rough streak, but the term "comfortable" makes me nervous. Comfortable means complacent. Complacent means you're falling behind and don't even realize it. I have FAITH that Zimm will, in fact, turn it around. But I'd be a lot more confident about it if he were just a bit more UN-comfortable with failure. I know he's the Golden Boy, and I have dreams that my son will grow up watching him the way I watched Cal Ripken. But Zimm shouldn't get too "comfortable", lest he forget that he does not have a long-term contract.
2. No confidence in Kearns. Bowden bought high on this stock and he's not going to be able to unload it.
3. If WMP, Dukes and Milledge can stay healthy (and L-Millz can keep from making boneheaded moves on the basepaths), Zimm regresses to his mean (which means a few very exciting games), and NJ continues to quietly be the most productive member of the team, this team will NOT finish last in runs scored. Beyond that, I make no promises.
Posted by: Section 319, late of 426 | April 16, 2008 10:22 AM
This one can't be solved by playing cards with the guys, I too would be interested in hearing from Lenny Harris.
Nothing in that spring training article gave me any confidence whatsoever.
Posted by: prophet | April 16, 2008 10:25 AM
1. Yes I believe in Zimm, he will turn it around, though I think a quick shake up in the order may not be a bad idea.
2. Kearns was, is, and always will be a BUM! We couldn't even trade him if we wanted too. I cannot wait for our outfield to be Milledge, WillyMO!, and Dukes (Please stay out of trouble, PLEASE!)
3. I think Manny needs to shake the order up a bit to get something going!
LETS GO NATS!
Posted by: Nats=class,class,class | April 16, 2008 10:27 AM
Zim is swinging too hard. he needs to be more compact and CHOKE UP WITH TWO STRIKES. put the ball in play and stop trying to mash it. who knows what Paige would have done, but he needs to start playing some pepper. he will turn it around, but its not going to turn around without changing his approach. so i agree with the theory that he is 'content'.
kearns is what he is.
lenny harris is too chummy with the players. that never works in baseball. look at all the great coaches and managers, and there is always a level of authority. Jeter called his Mr. Torre. do you think Torre played cards and shot the bull with the team?
Posted by: theraph | April 16, 2008 10:29 AM
"This is what you get with a bottom-of-the barell payroll."
Payroll is irrelevant to this discussion. Do you think if we just paid the current guys more that their problems would go away? Did that approach work with Dmitri?
Posted by: Anonymous | April 16, 2008 10:32 AM
Coverage
you raise an excellent point on assessing the team's performance. I do not want to hear from Bowden's PR department (i.e Bill Ladson of MLB)
Posted by: mjames | April 16, 2008 10:32 AM
ARGH!!! Does anyone here actually give a damn about assessing the situation?! Or does everyone just want to generalize their frustrations from last night. I spent a lot of time breaking down the Harris/Page numbers and no one has bothered to even refer to it. You're all just making snap judgments based on something you saw on TV and something someone said to a newspaper reporter. If they said negative things, they would get hammered for having a bad attitude.
Let's look at Zimmerman's numbers. His performance at the plate is currently 12 for 57 (.211). If he has a four hit night tonight (like Reyes did last night) then he's suddenly .262. If one of those hits drives in two runs, then he's the RBI leader for the team and has more than the aforementioned Jose Reyes, who - by the way - came into the game as the goat of NYM batting .200 and went out as a hero batting .273.
Good lord, the site is www.baseball-reference.com, go there before you post.
Posted by: Section 506 (Before moving) | April 16, 2008 10:37 AM
I was about to launch in to my "ask Zimmerman about his hamate" routine, but wanted to (a) think, and (b) check his stats at hardball times before I rehashed and opinoinated. Glad I did.
Zim and Manny have a valid point: he is having absurdly bad luck on batted balls in play dropping for hits. Again, it is pushing around small numbers, but since the post brings up small numbers and rate statistics, why not.
His BABIP is .200 this year vs. "average" for major leaguers of .290 (thanks, Dictionary) and his 2006 / 2007 of .326 and .295. His line drive percentage is actually up, slightly (17.3% v 16.9%), and his groundball % is down 5% from 2007 (2005 -2007 around 42- 43%, this year 38.5%). Maybe those numbers suggest a 1 or 2 hit drop off in how he is hitting, but can't explain the 1/3 fall off in balls dropping in.
Maybe a couple of other stats show the problem: an increase in % of flies that are infield pop ups (17%, was 11%) and a decline in his walk rate (1 per 20 plate appearances vs. past rate of 1 per 11 or 12). Less selective? Less quality contact (more pop ups)? Pressing?
I'll leave it for real stat people to figure out if any of this means anything. Here's the link to his hardball times spage: http://tinyurl.com/6fzkar
Posted by: PTBNL | April 16, 2008 10:40 AM
Uh, no, Mr. Anonymous Poster, don't be so simplistic with your silly sophsitry. What I want is for the Lerners, Stan and Bowden to have brought in better players. Period. By wild coincidence, better players would generally cost more. The players currently on the Nats are getting paid what they deserve (except maybe for Dmitri who, as you point out, is overpaid.) Point being, you get what you pay for. And in the Nats case, that means, not much.
Posted by: Lerners ARE Cheap | April 16, 2008 10:44 AM
506,
with respect, stats do not measure everything. even though stat people like to think they do. you can tell alot by watching someone swing a bat and how they handle thing that stats will not tell. it goes both ways. a single is a single is a single. but unless you see it, you dont know how it was a single.
zim is swinging to hard. when he misses, he falls all over the plate with the momentum carrying him towards the first base line. thats not a snap judgement, that is visual recognition of a potential problem. if he says he is comfortable, then that means he thinks he is comfortable.
how many people here play golf? just because you are comfortable during your swing does not prevent the ball from slicing into the woods.
i have no idea who you were referring to in your post. but i will take up the other side of the argument and suggest that baseball is just as much visual as it is statistical. i do not think Zim is performing poorly. but i do think he his swing is too long and hes trying to hit the ball too hard. that changes the fundamentals of a baseball swing, and that can change the muscle memory - making what is wrong feel comfortable.
did you ever check out the G/F on Lo Duca?
Posted by: theraph | April 16, 2008 10:46 AM
The same stat source confirms what we've all seen about Kearns - big leap in his groundball rate (45% to 61%) and a big leap in his infield flies as a percentage of his fly balls - 4 -5 % in '06, 8% in '07, 20% this year.
Posted by: PTBNL | April 16, 2008 10:47 AM
not surprisingly, much of the analysis here is overemphasizing 14 games worth of stats. there are a whole lot of really good players playing really really poorly in baseball right now. i'm sure we'd trade our couple of hot hitters at the moment for any of them. would you trade guzman for tulowitzki? anyone interested in big papi? cc sabathia?
Posted by: 231 | April 16, 2008 10:48 AM
506, the numbers are interesting, but batting average doesn't really tell the story. The problem seems to be hitting with runners on base and in scoring position in particular.
Posted by: Anonymous | April 16, 2008 10:48 AM
Manny,
What time did you say that team meating was going to be?
Posted by: MCQ | April 16, 2008 10:50 AM
Kearns and Zimmerman seem to be the only guys in the lineup who never get a day off to clear their head, rest up, think things over or whatever else they might do to try to turn things around in their approach without being under pressure to perform in that day's game. Maybe they both should get a day off every now and then. Let Boone take the start at third, Dukes (when he gets back) take the start in right. Or, if there's no other way around it, have FLop start in left and move WMP over to right for a day. Hell, Terry Francona gave Big Papi a day off to try to turn things around in the midst of his slump. Why can't Manny do that kind of thing? Just because Zim is the face of the franchise, that doesn't mean he needs to be forced into becoming a Ripken clone. Give him a day off every now and then!
Posted by: Anonymous | April 16, 2008 10:51 AM
easy there, 506. This is not even close to the first time Zim has said something like this to a reporter. He has talked about hitting the ball hard and not having them fall for hits on many occasions.
I think most people have said they are NOT worried about Zim. If they're like me, they just wish he would acknowledge that he could be doing a lot better at this point.
Bergman didn't get hammered when he said something negative. Lo Duca, though dubbed Capt. RedAss, hasn't been really torched for it. Mostly because what those guys said was true.
It would be nice to hear Zim say "I've got to do better with people on base".
Posted by: nattaboy | April 16, 2008 10:51 AM
Long time lurker, first time poster. Hope 220 isn't already taken, and someone please point that out to me if it is.
I think the problem is that our lineup is, simply put, not as good as we sometimes like to think it is. (Zim in particular has a way of throwing off our perceptions with his flair for the dramatic!) On a pennant-winning team, Austin Kearns bats seventh, Zim probably bats sixth (unless he really does take the leap forward offensively that we all want him to), and Nick bats maybe second? In other words, I don't think we have *anyone* right now who would be a 3-4-5 hitter on a team that would scare anyone in the postseason. Until WMP or Dukes, or in the future Marrero or Burgess, demonstrates that kind of ability, we have a lineup that, while it might get hot for stretches, can consistently be exposed by even mediocre pitching. Yes, they're in a slump, but this lineup has no chance of being considered "good" as currently constituted.
I like to consider myself an optimist, but also a realist. I think we have power hitters in the pipeline in Maxwell, Marrero and Burgess. I also really do believe this could be the year Zimmerman establishes himself as a hitter, so I might wind up being wrong about our 3 spot. But right now, there is no one in our lineup who looks like he has any business hitting in the 3-4-5 spot for a playoff team. It's not a winning team this year, I'll be shocked if they win 80 games.
Posted by: 220 | April 16, 2008 10:56 AM
506,
Barry asked if we had confidence, not if we had answers.
I mentioned "a feeling" I had about Lenny Harris v. Mitchell Paige. I guess you answered my question. Lenny Harris is better than Mitchell Paige. Thank you.
Posted by: NatsNut | April 16, 2008 10:56 AM
Most of these guys are pressing a bit, which tends to happen when a team is in a slump. They need too relax and just play.
The one thing that bothers me is stupid baseball. For example, Milledge getting thrown out a 3rd. Zim swinging at the 1st pitch when the the bases are loaded, there's 1 out and the pitcher just walked the last batter on 5 pitches.
When they stop pressing, it will turn around...any day now would be nice, though.
Posted by: Section 505/203 | April 16, 2008 10:59 AM
220 -- welcome! Very astute analysis. Hope to hear from you more.
Posted by: e | April 16, 2008 10:59 AM
excuse me. PAGE, not Paige.
Posted by: NatsNut | April 16, 2008 11:05 AM
1. Zim - faith, but probably not destined to be a #3 hitter on a winning club.
2. Kearns - a solid player, would look better on a good team with power at other spots.
3. No. Dukes and Meat on the bench will help though. LoDuca isn't an improvement over Schneider even offensively - he had a couple of good juiced years, but not recently.
Our offense is so right-handed that we're at a disadvantage facing righties, the majority of pitchers. Need left-handed power somewhere in the lineup.
We have so many guys batting at the wrong place in the order, but since we don't have legitimate 3 or 4 hitters we're stuck.
Posted by: Geezer | April 16, 2008 11:08 AM
How about having Guzman hit third or fourth? Maybe he'd have a better chance of batting some runners in (granted, that assumes that there'd have to be someone on base already, but given their current slump, why not try)?
Posted by: Juan-John | April 16, 2008 11:12 AM
Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
Albert Einstein
The problem of Zim and Kearns is MAGNIFIED by our Manager who refuses to "shake things up" if he know Zim and Kearns are struggling why not move them down in the lineup a little? I know it's not like our bottom of the order is doing anything either, but why bat WMP (who's obviously not 100%) 7th instead of 8th.
This slump is on the players and they will bounce back, but you have to start blaming Acta as well for not trying something different. Lenny Harris needs some blame and so does Bowden for not getting Acta the help off the bench Acta needs. It's time to shake things up and reward Langerhans for his .325 avg in AAA (batting clean up) or 3B Yurendell Eithel de Caster AA batting .356 or OF Jorge Padilla batting .342... Or call up Mike Daniel and Justing Maxwell! LET THE YOUTH MOVEMENT BEGIN!!! We can lose with young guys just as well as we can with old guys.
Does anyone remember the cut off date in which the team can call up guys and they don't qualify for UFA for another year. (I remember some discussion about this with Lannan and Maxwell before the season)
Posted by: NatsFan | April 16, 2008 11:17 AM
1) Yeah I have all the confidence in the world in Zimm, he'll be fine.
2) Can't say the same about Kearnsy. He's done as a Washington National. He has been given chance after chance after chance. For some reason Bowden and the think tank banished Church from the Nats, but he did more in less at bats (and w/ less chances) than Kearns. It's a joke to keep hearing Bowden, the announcing team, etc say "oh we can't wait until AK breaks out and delivers." Well he hasn't since being a National. Time after time he has come up with RISP and he can't deliver. Not this year. Not last year. Never. Cut your losses and let Elijah Dukes (I wanted him as opening day RF) or Justin Maxwell (or even Alex Escobar) play there.
3) I still have faith in the team. I'm sticking by my 77-85 record.
Posted by: Anonymous | April 16, 2008 11:20 AM
"What I want is for the Lerners, Stan and Bowden to have brought in better players."
Then say that. And to avoid being simplistic, follow it up with names of those better players who could have been brought in and how they could have been obtained. By summing up your argument by saying "the Lerners are cheap" you're making comments no more valid than someone would if they said "the Lerners are stupid". After all, smart owners generally field better teams too, don't they?
"Point being, you get what you pay for."
Except when you don't, that is...
Posted by: Anonymous | April 16, 2008 11:22 AM
you might as well forget the name "alex escobar." i keep seeing it come up here, but the guy is an injury waiting to happen, even when he's already injured.
as usual, he's already on the DL.
Posted by: 231 | April 16, 2008 11:29 AM
"Albert Einstein"?? What does that mean, "Albert Einstein"?
Posted by: Crash | April 16, 2008 11:32 AM
Anonymous (why don't you start using a name anyway?), I'm not a shadow GM, and I don't need to play one in order to validly criticize ownership. I have no clue what players may or may not have been available in trade for Bowden, because that info isn't available to fans. To validly criticize the composition of the team, I don't have to name each free agent that Bowden should have signed, only to have you reflexively respond either (a) that guy sucks and our guys are just as good or (b) there's no way anyone knew free agent X would do as well as he's done for [insert other team name] so you can't pick people in hindsight.
The fact is that the ownership of the team arrives at a payroll level, and then it is up to the GM to field the best team that he can. Do you really think that if Bowden had 30 or 40 million dollars more at his disposal, he couldn't put a better team on the field? I am confident he could--but that's his job, not mine, and I don't need to explain to you how I would spend $30 million in order to legitimately criticize ownership's decision on payroll. If Bowden proved unable to get that job done, then the fault would lie with him. Your line of debate--name me the specific players and how you would bring them in or else you can't criticize the owners--is absurd.
Posted by: Lerners ARE Cheap | April 16, 2008 11:37 AM
Actually, the one thing Kearns is doing right, maybe even better than normal right now, is drawing walks and getting on base. And the one thing we can be disatisfied with our lead off hitter is that he is not getting on anywhere near league average.
How absurd would it be to flip-flop Kearns and Guzman? Let Guz's hits drive in runners. AK is not the classic leadoff type, but in this line up, he can't bat 7th or 8th. Maybe move Nick up to #2 and move Milledge and Zimmerman back a slot to #4. That way, the two guys who get on the most get up the most, and the guys who get hits or drive the ball have guys on base in front of them when they do so.
I'll admit, that may be to weird for me even to want to do it.
In the AL, Kearns would bat 9th so he'd be on when the top of the order came around. Maybe he has more value to team there, like Oakland.
Posted by: PTBNL | April 16, 2008 11:40 AM
Look, I'm as frustrated with our play so far this year as anyone. But we need to keep in mind that we're still in the first inning of the season. It's not time to start firing coaches or benching proven major league regulars.
Kearns haters, give it a rest. He might not become the all-star we hoped he would be when he got here. But overall he's an above-average major league right fielder. His career average season is .265/.360/.447 with 22 HRs and 89 RBIs, with gold-glove caliber defense. You don't bench that kind of player because he has a bad 14-game stretch. Look, I'm hoping Dukes is the real deal as well, but it's also worth remembering that he's played a grand total of 53 games in the majors, during which he batted a whopping .188.
The main problem with this team so far is the failure to hit in clutch situations. But clutch hitting has been shown to be a myth -- the stats are not reliable, it's just the luck of the draw. And that means we should expect things to turn around.
Now, with that said, we can't get back any of the games we've lost, and there is no guarantee that my predicted improvement in clutch hitting will mean our pitching staff will be good enough to win those games. We've dug ourselves a hole here.
But all of the problems we've identified so far can be cured by a modest winning streak.
I think that's achievable. Cordero is back which hopefully makes our Strength less Shaky as the bullpen arms return to their respective roles. It looks like Hill is coming back this weekend. Perez and Chico have looked good of late, and Redding has been fine overall. Lannan has had one good start and one bad one, and if one of those guys falters, O'Connor could be called up from Columbus (as Barry notes in the Nationals Farm Update (nice feature -- let's keep that going) in the dead trees edition this morning, Mike O'C is 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA in three starts, with 16 Ks and 4 BBs.)
I agree that we have some flaws in our batting order. I just don't know that shuffling things around solves them. Guz and Lastings deserve to be 1-2 at this point. I'm going to leave Zim at three and Nick at four for the moment, although NatBisquit said above what I've been thinking lately about Nick Johnson, which was:
"Having a great OBP with runners in scoring position is not nearly as good as having a good slugging percentage with runners in scoring position."
That's what's been happening so far this year: Guz and Lastings get on, Zim doesn't deliver, Nick walks, and Kearns doesn't deliver. Does that mean that Zim, Nick and Kearns are not ideal 3-4-5 hitters? At least in that order? Maybe, but I'm not sure exactly what to do about that. Do you hit Nick third and drop Zim to fourth? Possibly, but then he loses some protection, so it might be a toss-up.
The only real cure is for Wily Mo to step up and become our power guy in the fourth or fifth spot. Kearns at six, followed by Lo Puca (or Estrada) and Belly, is not a bad bottom third of the lineup.
For the record, WMP's career average season is .259/.315/.470, with 24 HRs and 70 RBIs. In other words, so far in his young career, he hasn't been as good as Austin Kearns.
So, the bottom line is, we have to hope that (i) Guz and Lastings keep doing what they've been doing at the plate; (ii) Zimmerman returns to form, which he will; (iii) Kearns returns to form or takes the next step (many MLB players have their career years at his age so there is still room for substantial improvement); and (iv) Wily Mo grows into the 40-homer bat we've been missing forever.
Posted by: Bob L. Head | April 16, 2008 11:41 AM
Under this new rule, Guzman would be at the park now for tomorrow's game.
-----
"If anyone swings at a first pitch, they report to the park 2 hours earlier the next day."
Posted by: John in Mpls | April 16, 2008 11:43 AM
Thousands of games, then...
-----
I mean, there are actually guys in the media who have experience watching tens of hundreds of games...
Posted by: John in Mpls | April 16, 2008 11:44 AM
Crash, that definition of insanity was attibuted to Albert Einstein.
"Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."
--Albert Einstein
Posted by: Matt | April 16, 2008 11:51 AM
"The fact is that the ownership of the team arrives at a payroll level, and then it is up to the GM to field the best team that he can."
You really think this is how it works? Boy, are you clueless. "Here's X dollars, Jim. Now go buy me X dollars worth of players. Get the best ones you can, too. And make sure you have at least 25 of them. What time will you be back so I can have dinner ready?"
And you call me *me* simplistic.
Posted by: Anonymous | April 16, 2008 11:52 AM
"Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."
--Albert Einstein
Genius: Knowing in theory what a comb is for, but unable to put it into practice.
Posted by: Anonymous | April 16, 2008 11:55 AM
bobL, stop being rational, please. it has no place on this blog. ;)
a side note on dukes: while his BA was 188, his OBP was 315, which is pretty good when you hit below the mendoza line.
Posted by: 231 | April 16, 2008 11:55 AM
1.) Yes
2.) Not at all
3.) Very little
Posted by: pondaz | April 16, 2008 11:57 AM
1. Lots of faith in Zimm.
2. Not so much for Kearns. Just hard to see him being better than .275/20/80 at his best right now with potential for much less production.
3. Hard to evaluate the offense given the injuries. My hope is that when we get to Memorial Day, Pena and Dukes will have been given enough at bats to warrant benching Kearns if they both are hitting and Kearns is not.
One other gripe: we let go of Patterson because (party line) we are trying to be competitive and he just wasn't showing that he could get the job done. So why on Earth did we keep sending Harris and Lopez out to leftfield? They are non-competitive as corner outfielders. Why is Rob Mackowiak on this team?
Posted by: Arlington Nats Fan | April 16, 2008 12:02 PM
Right now I have no confidence in the offense of the Nationals. After they left so many men on base at the beginning of the game - which is now the norm - I went to bed when the score was 2-0. I was just about certain they didn't have a chance. It also seems like, if they score early they expend so much energy (and luck) that you can almost feel they will not score again! I wish the season could end earlier. Usually, I see three or four games a year. This year it may be one, just to see the new park. GOOD LUCK NATIONALS!!!
Posted by: Gaithersburg Pete | April 16, 2008 12:03 PM
Anonymous, I love how you responded to me yet totally ignored the substance of my post. If I am so simplistic, then my simplicity should speak for itself and there's no reason for you to waste your precious time responding to me, no?
I know how setting payroll for professional sports teams works, thanks. Do you really think that ownership does not give the GM even a target range of how much payroll can increase and where they want payroll to be? Do you think Mark Lerner and Stan Kasten never had a discussion with Bowden during the offseason about where the owners wanted '08 payroll to be? Really? I think now I understand why you're not willing to put a name to your posts.
_________________
"The fact is that the ownership of the team arrives at a payroll level, and then it is up to the GM to field the best team that he can."
You really think this is how it works? Boy, are you clueless. "Here's X dollars, Jim. Now go buy me X dollars worth of players. Get the best ones you can, too. And make sure you have at least 25 of them. What time will you be back so I can have dinner ready?"
And you call me *me* simplistic.
Posted by: | April 16, 2008 11:52 AM
Posted by: Lerners ARE Cheap | April 16, 2008 12:06 PM
231, I, for one, knew you were being sarcastic.
Posted by: Bob L. Head | April 16, 2008 12:11 PM
I think as a manager you have to put your players in the best possible position to succeed.
For Kearns, this means not constantly batting in key situations -- especially with 2 outs.
I also like the suggested radical idea of having him lead off. He would be like Wilkerson with a better OBP. (That is a wild guess).
Johnson and his OBP could be higher up in the order too-- and then line up the higher slugging percentages.
The result (OBP then Slugging)?
Kearns (.368, .261)
Milledge (.361, .455)
Johnson (.420, .475)
Zimmerman (.242, .368)
Pena (too small sample)
Guzman (.338, .556)
Belliard (.265, .333)
LoDuca (.317, .286)
If people start producing like normal, you can move it around again if you want.
Posted by: GoNats | April 16, 2008 12:17 PM
So, the blossoms have just fallen off the trees and we are ready for major overhauls on the team.
I tend to view things from a wider lens. Our team last year played .500 ball after about mid-May and had much less talent than the current team.
I believe spending money for talent is a question of who to invest in and when to invest in them. The free agents available this year were not what was needed in order to build a solid team that will compete in the long run. I think management did a masterful job of obtaining young talent and not giving too much up. I think letting our young pitchers develop, rather than rushing them up is also encouraging.
Overall, this is an improved team that should be competitive in most of the games they play. I don't remember how long it took last year's team to bat around the order three times, but I know it wasn't in the first seven or eight games. Our starting pitching is better than last year's as well. I don't think it will be much longer before our team starts playing better on all fronts (pitching, hitting, and defense). Then we will be able to better evaluate what we have. Heck, I'm still wearing a jacket to the games. Give it a little more time.
Posted by: Section 223 | April 16, 2008 12:20 PM
I wish that the nats would win...i think that they need to wear there socks high again!
Posted by: teddyrocks | April 16, 2008 12:22 PM
Alright, 506(BM), I'll take the challenge.
Someone here pointed out that average is not in and of itself indicative of the effectiveness of a hitting coach. Fair enough. I didn't have the time to do OBP or SLG either, so I went another route.
From 2005 until his departure in early May of last season, a Page-coached team scored 1,481 runs over 358 games, or 4.14 runs per game.
From May 11th of last year through yesterday, a Harris-coached team has scored 628 runs over 142 games, or 4.42 runs per game.
That's a difference of .28 runs per game, or 45.36 runs per season.
(Sure, this dosen't take into account errors, RBI, or LOB. Honestly, I don't have that much time.)
Posted by: John in Mpls | April 16, 2008 12:32 PM
Tom McCraw was the Nats' hitting coach in 2005.
Posted by: Coverage is lacking | April 16, 2008 12:37 PM
I also think it's interesting to look at the run-per-game averages of the two managers the Nationals have had.
Under Frank Robinson, the Nationals averaged 4.27 runs per game.
Under Acta, the team has averaged 4.11 runs per game.
However, you have to look at those numbers through at least two important filters:
1) Frank had Soriano in 2006. Just taking out the 46 times he (alone) crossed the plate that season on his own HRs and Frank's runs-per-game average is down to 4.13. Take out all Soriano's 95 RBI - which would get you a team more like the one Acta had last season - and you're down to 3.98.
2) The 51 runs in the 14 games this season are pulling down Acta's average, even though it's not a full season, and represents a team-wide slump.
There are a lot of variables, not the least of which being the roster changes. On the whole, though, it seems that Acta's offensive strategy makes the Nationals a more productive team in terms of runs scored.
Perhaps that answers Barry's third question for me.
Posted by: John in Mpls | April 16, 2008 12:44 PM
New post up re. an upcoming chat.
Posted by: natsfan1a | April 16, 2008 12:44 PM
"Do you really think that if Bowden had 30 or 40 million dollars more at his disposal, he couldn't put a better team on the field?"
Maybe, maybe not. Spending money on baseball players is not like going to the butcher and spending money on meat. At the butcher, it's all arrayed out there in front of you and it's all available. If you have more money, you can buy filet mignon. If you don't have money, you have to buy ground chuck.
The baseball marketplace is different. Many of the best players are not available because they're under contract to other teams. Prices on the players that are available do not track directly with quality. You have to know what you're doing when you spend the money you have. Merely spending more money than the other guy does not guarantee you anything except that you've spent more money than him. It's not who spends the most money that will do the best, it's who is the smartest at spending the money they have at their disposal. (And BTW, there's never been a single indication that the Lerners ever told Jim Bowden he couldn't spend money when he wanted to.)
I can't believe I have to explain this to you, but obviously you don't have a clue as evidenced by this bit of wisdom you offer us:
"I am confident he could--but that's his job, not mine, and I don't need to explain to you how I would spend $30 million in order to legitimately criticize ownership's decision on payroll. If Bowden proved unable to get that job done, then the fault would lie with him. Your line of debate--name me the specific players and how you would bring them in or else you can't criticize the owners--is absurd."
No, your line of debate where you just throw out your charges of "the Lerners are cheap" with nothing to back them up other than excuses for why you can't back them up is what is absurd. The Lerners are cheap because you say they are. Right.
Posted by: Anonymous | April 16, 2008 12:45 PM
"Albert Einstein"?? What does that mean, "Albert Einstein"?
The appropriate response is:
"I mean ALBERT EINSTEIN!!"
Jeez, and you guys call yourselves baseball fans.
Posted by: Section 319, late of 426 | April 16, 2008 12:47 PM
Dang it, that's right. Thanks for catching that. Obviously, it changes things a bit.
Page: 842 runs over 196 games, 4.30 RPG.
Harris: (still) 628 runs over 142 games, 4.42 RPG.
Total difference: 19.44 runs per season.
-----
Tom McCraw was the Nats' hitting coach in 2005.
Posted by: John in Mpls | April 16, 2008 12:49 PM
We need to mix up the line-up. No way is Kearns a #5 hitter...
1. Milledge
2. Guzman
3. Johnson
4. Pena
5. Zimmerman
6. Lo Duca
7. Kearns
8. Belliard
9. Pitcher
I would even be in favor of having Dukes start at LF when he gets back and have Pena move to RF with Kearns on the bench...
Posted by: estuartj | April 16, 2008 12:53 PM
I thought that was "William Blake."
Posted by: Anonymous | April 16, 2008 12:54 PM
I'm not making excuses, I'm telling you that I don't need to engage in your absurd line of debate just because you command it. I'm criticizing the owners, not the GM.
The Lerners are operating in one of the richest markets in baseball and they've failed to field even a respectable team. Their payroll is in the bottom 5 of all of baseball, along with backwaters like Pittsburgh and Tampa. The Lerners are cheap: "What concerns us most is the free agency signings which have occurred in the last 90 days," Lerner said Tuesday afternoon at George Washington University. "It could take baseball out of control."
______________________
"I am confident he could--but that's his job, not mine, and I don't need to explain to you how I would spend $30 million in order to legitimately criticize ownership's decision on payroll. If Bowden proved unable to get that job done, then the fault would lie with him. Your line of debate--name me the specific players and how you would bring them in or else you can't criticize the owners--is absurd."
No, your line of debate where you just throw out your charges of "the Lerners are cheap" with nothing to back them up other than excuses for why you can't back them up is what is absurd. The Lerners are cheap because you say they are. Right.
Posted by: | April 16, 2008 12:45 PM
Posted by: Lerners ARE Cheap | April 16, 2008 12:56 PM
On spending money. Last year we spent smart money to sign the best talent in the June draft. That was the Lerners, Rizzo and company. The next pile of money went to Dimitri Young, Belliard, Lo Duca, and Estrada. Svrluga wants to talk about Kearns and Zimmerman, but his buddy Jimbo is the one wasting the money and our time. The Lerners are going to figure that out because they are good businessmen and if you have someone who spends big wads of your money and doesn't get back anything for it, you ain't gonna let him keep spending your money very long. And the only thing that is cheap is talk.
Posted by: Cindy Lou | April 16, 2008 1:07 PM
Where's O's Exec and his Brady-burns today?
Posted by: Anonymous | April 16, 2008 1:42 PM
"Spending money on baseball players is not like going to the butcher and spending money on meat. At the butcher, it's all arrayed out there in front of you and it's all available. If you have more money, you can buy filet mignon. If you don't have money, you have to buy ground chuck."
___________________________________________
"You can get a good look at a butcher's ass by sticking your head up there. But, wouldn't you rather to take his word for it?"
Posted by: Tommy "Boy" Callahan | April 16, 2008 1:55 PM
I think it's time to face facts: Zimmerman is overrated. The Nationals needed a "face" for their franchise -- someone to put on marketing materials. Zimmerman has been annointed as their "franchise player," but what has he done to earn this distinction?
Zimm's BEST year was 2006 when he hit .287 with 20 homers. Those are not even close to all-star numbers. By contrast, Aramis Ramirez (who was also not an allstar) hit .291 with 38 homers in the same year for the Cubs.
Last year, Zimm hit .266 with 24 homers. Even these mediocre numbers are misleading because he spent most of the season hitting below .250 and had a good September.
Manny should move him out of the 3rd spot in the lineup, and Bowden should go out and find a real all-star who can anchor the line-up. The sooner we face the fact that Zimmerman cannot carry this ballclub, the better off we'll in planning for the future.
Posted by: J-dub | April 16, 2008 3:07 PM
This offense is anemic and has been since July of '05. Watching Schneider play for the Mets just killed me.
Posted by: 6th and D | April 16, 2008 4:26 PM
The comments to this entry are closed.

I have confidence in any experienced major league player in pulling out of slumps: the season is always about peaks and valleys, and this is no different. It's usually not about some severe issue with mechanics, but rather something cooking in the skull (thus the question "is he pressing?"). These guys all have the ability to see it and react with their swing, and usually the difference between extended success or failure is something rattling between the ears.
You may note Guzman's extended slump over 2+ seasons: I attribute that to eyesight and injury, and both have been corrected.