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DETECTING EMERGING ISSUES
As it tracks and analyzes thought and actions across the world, the Global Power Barometer (GPB) frequently catches sight of issues that will impact global politics. These are the issues that likely will move the icons in coming weeks. We'll share our peeks at the future as they pass certain momentum thresholds. In future days we'll categorize the "Emerging Issues" and provide snippets about the progress of significant trends. For now, here's what we're presently watching:
- March 26
6:15AM GMT - Here are the critical issues driving the GPB early this morning:
- Iran escalates the crisis with the UK by suggesting it will try the British sailors for "illegally entering Iranian waters";
- Iran loses as the UN Security Council votes new sanctions but then threatens all 15 Security Council members (not a good strategy since the world seems to be criticizing Iran)
- Egypt has criticized US Secretary of State Rice as she charged that a planned Egyptian constitutional referendum was less than democratic
- Islamists might be gaining in Somalia but who can tell since the entire country seems to be spiraling out of control
- US military chiefs in China appear to be making progress in improving relationships
- President Hu Jintao heads to China to bolster relationships (and secure more energy);
- China and Venezuela gain as China is set to rival the US as Venezuela's top oil buyer
- Israel loses as Egypt says Israel must accept land-for-peace principle and as Kuwait slams Israel for human rights violations
- Republican Senator Chuck Hagel mentions the "i" word (impeachment) and airs what many are thinking as result of a range of US missteps over past 6 years;
- EU warns energy investors that the rules in Russia have changed
- A Bush impeachment? For about the past 6 months, the GPB and the systems underlying it have been tracking (and has written about it twice) the potential (as highly improbable as it might seem) for the removal of the Bush/Cheney Administration. Today, with the mention of "I" word by Republican Chuck Hagel, the trend has passed the 7th threshold within the GPB systems (there aren't that many more). There has been commentary on a situation similar to Nixon/Agnew. However, the progression has been very different from Nixon/Agnew...if the process occurs it too would likely be different. It is not a situation that involves a single incident (criminal or otherwise). It is not a trend that involves a President who is unpopular personally. Rather, the thresholds have related to what appears to be a growing recognition among critical thought leaders that the drift in US policy, the loss of US global influence and the weakening of the US military cannot continue for another 22 months (or more if one considers the time required for a new Administration to implement policy changes) without irreversible damage to the nation. As much as the Democrats would like to see the Administration go from a substantive perspective, his departure would make things extremely difficult for Democrats from a political perspective, so the Democratic leadership has squelched any movement in that direction from their members. However, with the issue now raised by a Republican, watch for what happens next.
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The Global Realignment: The end of a US-centric world?
| - The media has recently caught on to the fact that US influence is in steep decline but still under the mainstream radar is the extent to which other players such as Russia, China, Iran, Venezuela are stepping into the vacuum. The US is still the military superpower but it's already sharing the global influence stage with emerging powers who can move global events as well or better.
| A dramatic global realignment appears to be in progress (and quickening) as the result of three factors: 1) A growing feeling that the US is without a coherent foreign policy strategy...a belief that has started feeding on itself; 2) China's rise, its smooth diplomatic technique, its re-alignment with Russia and its aggressive, clever drive to form new alliances with nations extending from Asia and Africa to South America; and, 3) the rise of non-aligned nations emboldened by the inability of the US to effectively use the extraordinary power it possesses. The world, from big nation players to fringe nations to isolated political movements and ideologies, has recognized that a giant vacuum in global power is forming...and they're moving to take advantage of it. Russia is forming critical energy alliances not just with neighbors with nations a half world away like Brazil and Argentina. China was recently asked by Israeli and Palestinian leaders to take on a new role in Middle East peace processes...taking over where the US has proven incapable of achieving results. In 2007, the seat of global power may have 2 or 3 additional legs and many think that may actually stabilize the world. |
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The Coming Energy Wars
| - Supply and demand are easy to understand but what about politics, pipelines, access and protection (long-term protection of energy sources)?
| Everyone knows that energy costs have skyrocketed over the past year as the result of, among other factors, increased demand by the growing economies of India and China. But how will Russian foreign policy, global nationalization of energy fields, the growing use of long-term energy contracts and control of pipelines impact future energy availability and costs. Global Thought leaders are looking at how the following will impact energy prices next year: 1) Whether Russia will continue to bungle its energy development program and ineptly use the energy weapon (e.g., access to its vast energy resources), particularly by threatening energy cut-offs to influence regional politics such as the bids by Georgia and the Ukraine for NATO membership; 2) whether the throwback (to the 70’s) trend of using long-term contracts to lock up energy supplies will put upward pressure on energy costs; 3) whether the trend of nations with nationalized oil and gas fields to limit access of the major energy companies to these fields will continue and grow; 4) whether nations like Turkey will decide that they, not the markets, control access to key pipelines. Beyond this, Global Thought believes China’s no-questions-asked approach to the partners it chooses could give it a significant advantage, particularly in Iran and possibly Iraq. The one certainty is that the global trends in all these areas are not good and could put increasing pressure on supplies for the US in the future…absent, of course, real progress in the US toward improving energy efficiency and increasing alternative energy options. Global Thought is amused at the view the US can drill their way out of this crisis. |
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Latin America and the Rise of the Anti-American Left
| - In 1823, US President James Monroe issued the Monroe Doctrine, naming all of the Western Hemisphere, and particularly Latin America under the United States' sphere of influence. Nearly 200 years later, the Monroe Doctrine looks like it could crumble
| In 2005-2006, Latin American politics have been veering to the left with the electoral victories of Evo Morales in Bolivia, Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua, and Rafael Correa in Ecuador (and a near victory by Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador in Mexico). These new leftist leaders add to current leftist regimes in Argentina, Brazil and Cuba. Perhaps the most outspoken of the leftist leaders is US opponent Hugo Chavez in Venezuela, who was just reelected by a 23% margin. These nations will pose a growing challenge to US interests in Latin America, as they seek to align themselves elsewhere. Already, Chavez has been making loud and brash statements on the world stage, pledging allegiance to Iran, denouncing President Bush and the United States at the United Nations, and signing trade pacts with China. Mercosur, the regional trade agreement instituted to promote free trade throughout South America (similar to NAFTA), is gaining supporters and seeks to give Latin America the same economic clout that the US and EU have. Furthermore, many Latin American nations are members of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), which seeks to provide viable alternatives to American and European hegemony. As Chinese investments in Venezuelan oil, in the reconstruction of the Panama Canal, and in mines grows in the region, watch for more independent action and less concord with the United States. |
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The Ascendant Tiger: China's journey to the top
| - Well-planned, innovative, quiet strategies on the diplomatic, economic, educational and military fronts are helping China build its power more quickly and effectively than any other global entity.
| China is building a sphere of influence that extends from Asia and Africa to South America. From the way it negotiates natural resource contracts to its new foreign aid strategies to its new military alliances, China is usurping power from its neighbors, the US and Europe. Global Thought believes China's economic growth and its evolving relationships with Russia, India, Pakistan and potentially Iran, along with its quickly growing influence on non-aligned nations combined with the vacuum being created by the decline in US influence could well make it a power to match or exceed the US global political power far sooner than anyone has thought. Chinese investment may in fact resurrect oil production in Iran…Global Thought believes its conceivable that China could end up the winner in Iraq also. Indeed, China at present is more than matching US power as is obvious by its daily GPB positioning relative to the US. Because many Global Thought leaders believe the US has no strategy to counter China's rise, watch for China to stay to the positive side of the US icon from some time to come. |
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Armageddon Watch: The new arms race
| - Iran offers to share nuclear technology with its Gulf neighbors and Russia looks to assist Brazil and Argentina with nuclear development...plower plants not bombs but how far is the jump to weaponry?
| A global arms race has begun. The lesson from Iraq, that a country shouldn't bluff about having WMDs, is spreading. North Korea and Iran are just the first to be making practical use of that lesson. The head of the IAEA, Mohamed El Baradei, estimates that about 40 countries could develop nuclear weapons. The concern of thought leaders is not, however, that the US or Russia will be challenged. A big worry is that nuclear weapons will fall into the hands of non-state ideological, religious or political movements where retaliation is impossible (e.g., no one knows who is responsible and/or where they live) or there is no deterent (e.g., the perpetrators believe in Armageddon and welcome retaliation on their hapless and perhaps unknowing host). Most frighteningly, the goal of some of these players (e.g., al Qaeda) may specifically be to foment war among two or more nation states (not where they live) and create a power vacuum in which they can advance their own global objectives (bin Laden's WTC attack very effectively drew the US into stirring the Middle East pot, giving Islamists an opportunity to gain power they could never have created themselves). The next most significant concern of Global Thought is regional war among nations possessing the bomb (e.g., Israel/Iran, India/Pakistan). Thought leaders by a wide margin believe the shattering of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty, diminishing global stability and the activist foreign policy of the US over the last 6 years have inched the nuclear genie further out of the bottle. In recent days, Iran's neighbors (e.g., Saudi Arabia) have heated up their talk about beginning nuclear programs. Iran cleverly has now offered to share nuclear technology within the region. Whether Israeli PM Olmert intentionally let his tongue slip about Israel's nukes (as a subtle threat) or did it unintentionally, the race appears to be heating up. |
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The Next War?
| - A growing number of writers and analysts, as well as political leaders, are talking about a wider war (or wars) brewing in the Middle East.
| There is more than a little talk of a wider Middle East conflict even as the US is attempting to exit Iraq and Israel has reached a temporary cease-fire with the Palestinians. Syrian leader, Bashir al-Assad warned recently that Israel could attack Syria (which some interpret as an invitation). Various writers have speculated that Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad might have adopted Osama bin Laden's strategy of drawing the US into further stirring the Middle East pot, a move some believe would work to the advantage both of Iran and Islamists. Jordan’s King Abdullah has warned that in 2007 three civil wars could erupt in the Middle East (among the Palestinians, Lebanon, Iraq). Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has started the Israeli Defense Forces on a course of preparing for the possibility of war with Iran. Some conservatives in the US are saying that the problem with Iraq is that the US didn't expand the battlefield far enough (to include Iran and even Saudi Arabia). And, of course, Islamists are on a roll. Right now, it's perhaps all speculation but with at least 2 US strike groups in the area, Iraq in turmoil, Iran moving ahead with its nuclear program, and several nations (not to mention political movements) on a hair trigger, the old saying that "Daggers drawn tend to draw blood" needs to be considered. Emerging Issues will watch as the situation unfolds. |
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Progress of the New Caliphate
| - Are the "birth pangs of a new Middle East" heralding a new Islamic empire?
| Building the new Caliphate has been Osama bin Laden's goal, and the goal of Aggressive Political Islam (API) for more than a decade. President Bush has publicly acknowledged this goal. API has been growing dramatically in their power, breadth of operations and speed of action with new fronts opened from Thailand to Somalia to Bangladesh…and, of course, don’t forget the most effective global political presence on the Internet - API. In presenting an alternative to bring discipline and order (granted fundamentalist religious order but order nonetheless) and effective social service management to areas where extraordinary corruption and violence are rampant, API has not only won by military means but they’ve won at the grassroots level. And those grassroots successes have translated to election success. API has won significant power in every election in which they’ve participated. The big question on Global Thought’s mind is how API will fix Iraq once the US pulls out. |
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