Anti-taxers and the GOP Mavs: Is there a Silver Lining?

Almost all of the "GOP mavericks" cleared their toughest hurdle yesterday and survived energetic, well-funded challenges to their 2004 tax-raising vote. The only exception was Del. Gary A. Reese of Fairfax County, who was bounced from office by the baby of the anti-tax bunch, 26-year-old Chris Craddock, a youth minister from Fairfax. He won with a convincing 66 percent of the vote.

Lots of different spin today from lobbyists and activists about whether this is a blow to the anti-tax movement, which swore revenge against the delegates, or whether the process shows positive signs for those who want to see the House GOP Caucus remain all anti-tax, all the time.

Let's start with those who see the silver lining.

Anti-tax activist Jim Parmelee, president of Virginians United for Tax Relief, saw victory in the election results. How?

He saw Craddock's win as proof that the anti-tax message is slowly making headway. Sure, it was the ONLY victory, but if you take the long view, anti-taxers are actually chipping away at the tax-loving beast that allowed Democratic Gov. Mark Warner's 2004 tax package to go through with the help of those breakaway Republicans.

"It's the second election cycle in a row where an incumbent lost on the tax issue," he said. He was referring to the defeat of Jack Rollison at the hands of Jeffrey M. Frederick in a 2003 GOP House primary in Prince William, when the challenger took Rollison to task for engineering the 2002 referendum on a sales tax increase that would have raised money for transportation projects.

He placed Craddock's victory in further historical context: Anti-taxers defeated the sales tax referendum. Anti-taxers helped get Sen. Ken Cuccinelli (R-Fairfax) elected for former moderate Republican Sen. Warren Barry's seat in 2002.

But isn't the bottom line that they lost five races yesterday?

"Incumbents are supposed to win ... It's very hard to unseat them," Parmelee reasoned.

This is the victory-in-defeat argument that many anti-taxers have been preparing for a couple of weeks now. Earlier, Robin DeJarnette, executive director of the Virginia Conservative Action PAC, an organization that funded five of the challengers, said:

"I think we've already been successful." The challengers have "gotten the message out there even though they have been outspent by the incumbents by 2 to 1 or 3 to 1."

But supporters of the mavericks aren't buying it. Nineteen delegates who supported tax increases at one point or another last year were available to be challenged. At the end of the day, only six had primary races. Of those six, only one anti-tax challenger won. Not an impressive tally, they said.

"Virginia voters made clear that these are our 'most wanted' leaders," said Jessie Ferguson, executive director of Virginia21, a group that represents college students and young voters and supported the 2004 tax package. He was, of course, playing on the wording of the western-style "Virginia's least wanted" poster that anti-tax activists sent around in September, highlighting the delegates who at one point supported tax increases.

"They targeted 19 folks with a poster and 95 percent will be back in Richmond next winter. Voters said they wanted them back. Voters have said 'no' to the extremist fringe and their opinions."

By Chris Jenkins |  June 15, 2005; 3:55 PM ET  | Category:  Republicans
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