Dan Balz's Take
Sitting Atop an Unstable Race

Rudy Giuliani addresses the Republican Jewish Coalition (Getty)
Here is a headline you never thought you'd read: "Giuliani Generates Most 'Enthusiastic' Support From Republicans."
Those words are carried atop a report about a new Gallup Poll that shows Giuliani continuing to lead the Republican field nationally. Superficially, the poll represents more good news for the former New York mayor, but it could almost as easily be interpreted as indicative of the fundamental instability in the Republican race.
Start with the good news for Giuliani. He leads with 32 percent and has a double-digit advantage over Fred Thompson, who runs second at 18 percent. John McCain runs third at 14 percent and Mitt Romney is fourth at 10 percent.
When Republicans were asked about possible nominees and whether they would vote for that person enthusiastically or primarily just to vote against the Democratic nominee, Giuliani comes out on top. Fifty-one percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents said they would vote enthusiastically for Giuliani.
Next was McCain at 38 percent, followed by Thompson at 37 percent. Romney ran a distant fourth. Just a quarter of Republicans said they would support him enthusiastically if he were the nominee, while 38 percent said they would vote for him mainly as a vote against the Democrats. Thirty percent either said they would stay home if Romney were the nominee or had no opinion about their level of enthusiasm for him.
All of this suggests Giuliani is now the national front-runner for the Republican nomination. Certainly his rivals have begun to treat him as such. Last week's debate in Dearborn, Mich., saw Romney go after Giuliani over his conservative credentials. Last night, Thompson challenged Giuliani in the mayor's backyard, arguing that he and not Giuliani is the true conservative in the race.
The question is whether Giuliani is a secure frontrunner, or a frontrunner in any sense other than national polls, which can be unreliable indicators at this point in the race. The Gallup poll highlights one potential problem. The longer the campaign has gone on, the less favorably the public sees Giuliani.
His current favorable rating among all Americans is at 49 percent, down from 62 percent in May. He's at 66 percent among Republicans, but has dropped 15 points since May. He's also dropped 15 points among Democrats.
Giuliani's favorable ratings are still higher than those of other Republicans -- considerably higher than either Romney's or Thompson's. But can he avoid further deterioration as the Republican campaign intensifies? His advisers believe that is possible but only because they see potential risk for everyone in a multi-candidate battle in which attacks are flying in different directions.
The other red flag is the contrast between Giuliani's national numbers and his standing in the earliest states. Giuliani hopes to finesse Iowa, where he now runs behind Romney and Thompson But can the person described as the national frontrunner for the GOP nomination afford a weak third-place or fourth-place finish in Iowa? Can the national frontrunner then afford a loss in New Hampshire a few days later?
Giuliani advisers believe the answer is yes to both. They see Iowa as somewhat diminished this year, in part because there is so much attention there on the Democratic race. In New Hampshire, they have long argued that a solid second behind Romney will be enough to keep Giuliani moving forward toward the later states that he is building his nomination hopes around.
But others, in rival campaigns, believe Giuliani must win New Hampshire if he does poorly in Iowa. Although he will claim it is a state better suited to Romney because of proximity to Massachusetts, or McCain by virtue of his 2000 victory there, Giuliani should know that candidates who built their appeal on electability in a general election are expected to demonstrate that strength in the primaries.
Giuliani campaign manager Mike DuHaime said in an email message Tuesday that the Gallup findings on enthusiasm show the former mayor's potential to rally a demoralized party.
"In an environment that seems to favor Democrats in 2008, the party deserves a candidate that can unite and energize the entire party," he said. "These numbers suggest Rudy is the candidate best positioned to keep red states red and go on offense in traditionally Democrat states."
The Giuliani team believes that as long as Republicans are persuaded that Giuliani will be a strong general election candidate, they will forgive his social liberalism and embrace him as the party's best hope to win in 2008. The national polls suggest that to be the case -- but the nomination battle still must go through the states.
A strategist in a rival campaign said the contrast between Giuliani's national numbers and his standing in early states hints at a possible train wreck if the former mayor stumbles badly early. But the same strategist acknowledged that the path to the nomination for Giuliani is no less implausible than it is for the other leading candidates.
So for now, the headline stands: Republicans are expressing enthusiasm for the candidate who nine months ago looked implausible as the person to lead a conservative party. Giuliani should enjoy the acclaim -- and then run his campaign as if he is behind in most of the early states. Which is exactly where he is.
--Dan Balz
Posted at 1:35 PM ET on Oct 16, 2007
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Posted by: 23zzd45 | October 17, 2007 1:05 AM
RambleOn is absolutely right.. then again what about his 'lisp'? When he makes a speech he sounds like a cartoon character.. way to go Rudy!
Posted by: ackermanphotography | October 16, 2007 11:07 PM
It seems as if a majority of the posts here question Giuliani's gender, his personal life and cross-dressing. One or two uninformed posters actually accuse him of being a neocon -- you clearly have no idea what neoconservativism is. One other carelessly uses the term "retard" -- real mature, people.
Does anyone actually have anything educated or substantive to contribute?
Posted by: RambleOn | October 16, 2007 10:19 PM
Giuliani=Bush in drag.
Posted by: dlanng | October 16, 2007 10:03 PM
Dear God, PLEASE DO NOT LET Giuliani be the nominee. He is the most despicable candidate on the roster for either parties.
The man is not honest. Just look at his past. He has done nothing heroic, in fact he is to blame for for not having replaced the walkie talkies after the Trade Center bomings in 1993 with one that all responders could share info.
Posted by: tinkabell1 | October 16, 2007 9:56 PM
At this point, Clinton vs. Giuliani would essentially be a tie. Apparently Giuliani does better with mods and indys. But that's where Clinton's deep, deep pockets could be the difference. Edwards would probably still do better in Red/Purple states that Clinton, but he's already had national visibility. If he hasn't garnered enough support from Dems at this juncture, his campaign is probably toast. In the general election, Clinton would have to do a lot of convincing that she's centrist and steadfast. We already know that the Repuglican smear machine (i.e. Rover/Fox News, etc.) will use its ugly scare tactics -- labeling Clinton as a weak woman, yankee liberal, etc.
Posted by: con_crusher | October 16, 2007 9:54 PM
If Rudy somehow wins the Republican primary, one of two things will necessarily be true:
1) The Christian Right political movement is dead. Very dead.
2) We all underestimated the extent to which authoritarianism lied at the core of Christian Right ideology, as opposed to any sort of values that are commonly recognizable as "Christian."
Posted by: schiffer | October 16, 2007 9:54 PM
Ron Paul is the only true GOP candidate.
He has never voted to raise taxes.
He has never signed for an unbalanced budget in congress.
Someone asked about when Ron Paul would leave Iraq...Immediately!
And not stay past 2013, which when each Democratic candidate was asked at the debate all the leading Democrats could not say that they would be out by 2013.
Ron Paul's supporters believe in the message of freedom. Help protect our liberties. Ron Paul supporters know no party. It is about the message and what our country needs to get back. Or do we forget what we have lost?
Posted by: c4k3s | October 16, 2007 9:44 PM
I earnestly hope Trudy Giuliani is the nominee of the Talibanicans. Yes, the thrice maried cross-dressing authoritarian in ermine, the BFF of Mafioso Bernadine Kerik.
Trudy Giuliani? Bring Her On!
Posted by: Nurse_Tabby | October 16, 2007 9:16 PM
I'm a conservative Republican, and I disagree with people who think that Rudy Giulaini would definitely split the GOP on the abortion issue, and minimize its importance as a social issue. If he becomes president, he can use the issue in a way that would wake up Americans to why Roe vs. Wade, in particular, was such an immoral decision that fractured the national conscience over the past 34 years.
Eric Johnston, a passionate pro-lifer on the abortion issue recently wrote a terrific article (in the NY Times, believe it or not!). Its link is below.
His thesis: BECAUSE Giuliani is not a religious conservative (just a law & order, national security, fiscal, and judicial conservative), he can very likely shake up the entire abortion debate on a national level as our next president, in a way that would help win the issue for conservatives.
You see, right now, most Americans think conservatives oppose abortion ONLY because of religious or strict social doctrine. Most people don't understand how conservatives passionately oppose Roe vs. Wade because it took the power to decide the issue out of the hands of the people and their representatives, and into the hands of unaccountable judicial tyrants on the Supreme Court, who invented a "privacy right" that doesn't exist in the Constitution. They'd be shocked to learn that most conservatives, even strict social conservatives, would accept legalized abortion if it were decided by the people or their representatives, although one certainly reserves the right to try and change hearts and minds at the grassroots level. That is of course, what America is all about.
Giuliani can wake Americans up to this fact, because Americans wouldn't chalk up his opposition to simple religious, or even social, doctrine. And he very likely WOULD be a force against unfettered abortion, and abortion on demand. Besides a commitment to nominate the types of judges who never would have decided Roe in the first place, he opposes late term abortion, unless medically necessary for the life of the mother, and supports parental notification laws for minors wanting an abortion.
That certainly stacks up much better than Saint Hillary and the rest of the Democratic candidate parade, especially regarding judicial appoinments, where a president's views on the issue really matter.
I believe Giuliani would make great strides toward promoting the pro life cause, even if he's not an outspoken soldier in that war.
Link to the article: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/14/opinion/14johnston.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
Posted by: pconti777 | October 16, 2007 9:15 PM
After reading these Republican responses, I have come to the conclusion that being Republican is like running in the Special Olympics; your team may win, but you're all still retarded.
Posted by: camera_eye_1 | October 16, 2007 8:55 PM
Can you imagine the Post ever writing that Hillary's lead could " easily be interpreted as indicative of the fundamental instability in the Democratic race "? Of course not! The Post is a shill rag for the Clinton machine. I can't wait to read the sad stories from the Post political staff the day after Rudy breaks her little heart in the General Election.
Posted by: fred100012003 | October 16, 2007 8:55 PM
If Giuliani ends up being third or forth in Iowa then he will probably not win.
Posted by: vel_susr | October 16, 2007 8:49 PM
not as unthinking or idiotic as bush, though he's gotta be considered most likely to perpetuate a horribly short sighted and ridiculous neo con agenda, with a dose of hard headed philosophical stupidity.
Posted by: glenbc | October 16, 2007 8:31 PM
Rudy Giuliani is a ghoul. He shamelessly co-opted the worst American tragedy on native soil in the last century for his own personal gain. He is a perfect fit for the Republicans and the Fox T.V. led neo-cons. (read neo-fascists) Never forget that for Guiliani and the Bush Administration, 911 was their own personal Reichstag fire.
Posted by: tomathans | October 16, 2007 8:15 PM
Yeah so - BARACK'big-ears'OBAMA and RUDY'likes-to-dress-as-a-woman'GIULIANI 'got' the most money!!! JOHN CONNERLY 'antied' up millions and never got a vote!!! HILLARY 'illegally' listens in on phone-calls, accepts joyfully tainted campaign donations, and promises 'groups' exactly what they want to hear!!! A NEW 'FASCIST' FOR OUR TIME - NOT AS ARTICULATE, OR AS SMART, OR AS GOOD-LOOKING AS 'IL DUCE' BENITO MUSSOLINI - BUT WHAT THE HECK HILLARY IS THE FEMALE FASCIST FOR OUR TIME!!! HILLARY 'THE NEW BENITO - JUST AS VICIOUS, JUST AS VINDICATIVE, JUST AS VITUPERATIVE,
JUST AS VENO,OUS AS ANY MALE!!! HILLARY=FASCISM!!!
Posted by: ZyskandarAJaimot | October 16, 2007 8:15 PM
SarahBB,
Mr. Giuliani will not sign any of those pledges as is very clear from what he has said over and over again during this campaign. The guy who had better things to do than serve in the military when he was in that age bracket is more hawkish than Bush and Cheney combined.
Heaven forbid that he or one of the look- and sound-alike viable Republican candidates make it to the White House.
See also,
http://www.reflectivepundit.com/reflectivepundit/2007/08/rudy-giuliani-n.html
Posted by: bn1123 | October 16, 2007 7:44 PM
Will he sign the I will not torture people as president pledge? How soon will he get us out of Iraq or will he get us into Iran first?
Posted by: SarahBB | October 16, 2007 7:08 PM
The only sane member of the GOP in the 2008 race is Ron Paul. He opposed the Bush/Republican debacle in Iraq from the start and even warned against it. All the rest are more or less Bush backers of the failed party line.
Posted by: oneman | October 16, 2007 6:56 PM
I don't know that the GOP has a viable candidate yet. It's beginning to look a lot like Bob Dole in 96 to me.
Posted by: jonavery2000 | October 16, 2007 6:47 PM
MEDIA PITCHER: Pro-Life?
RUDY: Nah, pro-Choice.
CONSERVATIVE UMPIRE: Str-ii-ke One!
MEDIA: Against gay rights?
RUDY: Nah, for.
UMP: Str-ii-ke Two!
MEDIA: Family values?
RUDY: Well, on my third marriage, and my kids won't talk to me.
UMP: Str-ii-ke Three!
RUDY: Hey, wait, I got lots of stuff. I'm for gun control... Nah, that's not it.
UMP: Yer out!
RUDY: 9/11! That's it, I was there, 9/11!
UMP: YER OUT!
Posted by: goat909295 | October 16, 2007 6:21 PM
These tax and spend Republicans don't conserve anything. They want war, not peace. They increase government instead of reducing it. They limit individual freedom instead of increasing it. They ignore the Constitution instead of obeying it.
Please help the Republican party find real Republicans as candidates instead of these phonies.
Posted by: thoughts | October 16, 2007 6:15 PM
It appears that the social conservatives living in the south have not shied away from Rudy. He has played to packed houses from what I have seen living there. I cannot imagine them voting for Hillary but a 3rd party candidate is always a possibility. Thompson is too old and boring and McCain had his chance in 2000. Romney seems to be "ahead of his time". I am not sure if I would label him a lightweight in that he has not made too many mistakes. Time will tell.
Posted by: Larsen770 | October 16, 2007 5:45 PM
Rudy Julie is something of a lightweight, perhaps without enough substance to be President. Fred Thompson seems to have some sense--what we need in a President.
Posted by: IIntgrty | October 16, 2007 5:26 PM
Giuliani: social conservatives don't like him. Fiscal conservatives are fawning over Ron Paul. Just what exactly is Rudy conservative about?
Posted by: csen | October 16, 2007 5:24 PM
JimSheridan writes
"Hold your fire. All this and much worse will come out but hopefully after he is the GOP nominee - meanwhile lie low."
LOL. Funny, and likely true. It wouldn't surprise me to learn that Senator Clinton still has opposition research on the Mayor from the 2000 race.
Posted by: bsimon | October 16, 2007 5:17 PM
Although the "theocrats" have discussed breaking away from the Republican Party, don't underestimate their disdain for Senator Clinton, assuming she becomes the Democratic nominee. Her unfavorable ratings are unprecedented for a likely nominee, as she somehow has that unique ability to make people either love her or hate her. If she is the nominee, many conservatives will not sit at home...they'll vote for the anti-Clinton Rebuplican, whoever that may be.
Bottom line: Both front runners have electability issues. Any predictions for which demographic sits at home on election day are way premature.
Posted by: smarty_pants | October 16, 2007 5:11 PM
Harinc, Urbanski - Hold your fire. All this and much worse will come out but hopefully after he is the GOP nominee - meanwhile lie low.
Posted by: JimSheridan | October 16, 2007 4:38 PM
stand corrected. meant to say first wife was cousin. that is true, which is why he was able to get marriage annulled after 14 years. all else in post also true
Posted by: urbanski_michael | October 16, 2007 4:05 PM
"America's Mayor" tries to sell himself as the big hero of 9/11. The truth is that his failure to fix the radio problem that had plagued the fire department since 1993 lead to the unnecessary deaths of scores of firefighters: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article1530535.ece
Posted by: braultrl | October 16, 2007 4:01 PM
It is faulse that the first wife was first cousin.
Posted by: rfalas | October 16, 2007 3:56 PM
The man married his first cousin. His cousin! Come on people. GOP should be ashamed of themselves for letting him come this far.
Oh, and he also cheated on his second wife in full view of NYC for months...leaving the wife home while bringing the girlfriend to official city functions. Then told his wife he wants a divorce on national television. A--hole!
His own children refuse to support him
Posted by: urbanski_michael | October 16, 2007 3:29 PM
I pray that Guiliani is the Republican nominee.
Every time the GOP tries to slime the Democratic nominee with allegations of tax and spend, the Dems will point to Guiliani's fervent support of the NYC commuter tax, the falsity of his recent claim that he cut taxes 23 times as mayor (I must have missed his service in the New York legislature), and the nearly 14% increase in real spending under his watch
(his parsing about reducing spending "on a per capita basis" won't cut it in a general election debate).
Then, when the GOP slimes the Democratic candidate on the so-called values issues, the Dems will point to Guiliani's admitted adultery, the fact that his two adult children don't even speak to him, and his latest wife says she wants to be coronated as America's princess, not First Lady.
The problems Guiliani causes Republicans on abortion, homosexuality, gun control and other "wedge issues" will blur the lines between the two parties and, at a minimum, depress the evangelical vote. When the GOP tries to resurrect its image on its corruption problems, the Dems will point to Guiliani's shady business dealings and associations with Bernard Kerik and other shakedown artists and mafia figures.
It will be the death of the modern Republican party, which would be a good thing for America and the world. Bring him on!
Posted by: harinc | October 16, 2007 3:29 PM
Guiliani will be the worst move for the Republican party. The theocrats have already discussed breaking away if he's nominated. Even if they don't, they'll certainly sit at home on election day and allow the Democratic nominee to win red states.
Posted by: thegribbler1 | October 16, 2007 2:26 PM
The comments to this entry are closed.

I've voted Republican since the Reagan / Goldwater Revolution. I will NOT vote REPUBLICAN unless Ron Paul is the nominee. I will vote democrat. Period.
Ron Paul is the only honest statesmen of all the candidates. Everyone likes to talk like they knew Reagan and are like him. Reagan said "Libertarianism is at the heart of true republicanism." In fact when Reagan came on the seen the biggest complaint was that he was really a libertarian. Ron Paul led the Texas Delegation for Ronald Reagan for the Republican nomination. When very few supported Reagan. Ron Paul is the True Reaganite and True Republican.
All the others will continue this trend of a presidential dictator and start ww3. Ron Paul is America's last hope to return our republic. If not our republic is lost and our nation will collapse from within.