The Trail: A Daily Diary of Campaign 2008

I am an independent woman who has voted green and democrat primarily. I don't like Hillary. I think if anybody can loose an election that is otherwise a sure thing for the democrats, it's her. People underestimate how raw she rubs people. I find her dishonest and mechanical. Any other dem I would vote for. I would LOVE a woman president...but I'm not voting for Hillary just because she is a woman. She is like voting for a piece of equipment on a broken down machine.

Another poll to consider in this debate is the Zogby poll of the past week. This is the largest poll in numbers surveyed that I have seen to date.

http://www.newsmax.com/insidecover/hillary_Zogby/2007/10/20/42596.html?s=al&promo_code=3BBB-1

This poll was a a large sampling of slightly less than 10,000 people nation wide. Usually polls are of 2,000 and even less.

My conclusion after reviewing the article regarding this poll is that Hillary cannot carry the majority of the women's vote in the General Election.

If she is to win, the General Election it will be due to the male vote. She would need the majority of the male vote to place her above a simple majority of 51% in the popular vote. Electoral votes are another question.

This poll shows that 83% of Democrat women voters say they would vote for Hillary in a General Election. And, 17% of the women surveyed of her own party say they would never vote for Hillary.

Women who identified themselves as Republican were just the opposite with 83% saying they would never vote for Hillary and 17% saying they would consider (note the word "consider") voting for Hillary. The word consider implies that Hillary would not get the full 17% and maybe even none of those women who considered themselves Republican.

This poll had an insignificant number of people who refused to say, hence there appears to not be many women who are neutral on Hillary----she is a very polarizing candidate.

Wonder how the men feel about Hillary?

It is really funny reading comments portraying Clinton as mean spirited and divisive.

When she first ran for Senator in New York, she was called a carpetbagger, an opportunist. She may have this negative impact initially but due to her sterling performance as Senator of New York, this impression has substantially diminished and she won overwhelmingly for a second term.

I am sure that the same thing will happen to her in this Presidential nomination campaign. She has her good track record as a senator to back her up.

What in the world did she ever do to deserve this description of a mean spirited woman

"zuker, that is a point worth making. The question is why the polls show a growing Clinton lead while so many self-professed Dems don't want to see her as the nominee?"

Perhaps because there are not "so many".

" I suspect the MSM is putting too much stock in the pollster's numbers in order to write the 'inevitable nominee' story. Of course, this also sets up future stories of the candidate's fall, or the new surges of the challenger(s). Papers are gonna sell!"

When available data contradicts your theory, you resort to conspiracy theories. I don't.

By the way, are you really unaware of how self-contradictory your suggestion is?

zukermand writes
"So many thoroughly thought through theories for why Sen Clinton just CAN'T win. I'm sure you have some very credible explanation for why whenever someone goes around and asks a large group of people about it, they disagree with you."


zuker, that is a point worth making. The question is why the polls show a growing Clinton lead while so many self-professed Dems don't want to see her as the nominee? I suspect that the general public that pollsters survey are responding based largely on name recognition. Which begs the question - will she get the support necessary to win primaries? Her argument is that 24% of GOP women will support her, but that (alleged) support is for the general election. Can she get 24% of Dem women in the primary? If not, the general numbers are irrelevant. I suspect the MSM is putting too much stock in the pollster's numbers in order to write the 'inevitable nominee' story. Of course, this also sets up future stories of the candidate's fall, or the new surges of the challenger(s). Papers are gonna sell!

Wow, you people are so insightful and well informed. So many thoroughly thought through theories for why Sen Clinton just CAN'T win. I'm sure you have some very credible explanation for why whenever someone goes around and asks a large group of people about it, they disagree with you. Hmmm. I also find the trend lines for Sen Clinton and Mr Giuliani interesting and at odds with your amazingly detailed and elaborately constructed analyses. Curious.

I am a Democrat and a woman who will not vote for Hillary Clinton. Most of the women I know feel the same way. She has proven to be mean-spirited and divisive.

Hillary was endorsed by Emily's List and NOW, organizations that have large numbers in the North East. These New York organizations have little sway in the Western States. These endorsements will cost her votes from Republican women, especially in the South.

Many voters have Clinton fatigue and are seeing fundraising scandals reminiscence of the Bill Clinton years. If Hillary is on the ticket in 2008, the Democrats running for Congress will be overshadowed by news reports of more Clinton scandals.

We need to have a Presidential election that puts the issues before the American people rather than the antics of the Clintons. We survived the circus once but I am not willing to sign up for a second act.

Any repub women who vote for Hillary will be FAR outweighed by ALL of the people who will come out of the woodwork to vote AGAINST her.

Dems are idiots if they nominate her.

I won't vote for a republican, but i will NEVER VOTE FOR HILLARY.

Sorry dems, she's not in my party. I'll stay home if she's nominated. Hillary means more war, and more saber rattling.

Here's an article noting that Hillary has recieved more money from the Arms industry than any other republican:

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/americas/article3075691.ece

I have been trying to tell those in the msm that not only the gop or indies are against Hillary but, half her party cannot stand her.
Penn can do all the funny math he wants but, go on any left leaning blog and you will find plenty of democratic women, myself included, who will leave the party if Hillary is the nominee. Some will vote 3rd party and many will simply stay home. I am sure that are many who will vote for an acceptable republican rather than vote for her. This is people who are lifelong democrats.
So, saying republican or indie women will vote for her is a laugh when she cannot convince half the women in her own party she is acceptable.
I would love a woman president, just not Hillary.
In the meantime, like many of the uncounted in the grassroots, I will continue my support and donate to and work for the nomination of Barack Obama.

Problem is there could be 24% of Democratic women who won't vote for Clinton. I talk to them and it is not flattering what they say. It is not just men who don't like her. She has a personality problem unrelated to gender which is her biggest handicap, that and her Iran vote.

Clinton's handlers are apparently aware that many Democrats will not vote for her under any conditions. Therefore she will need to make up the lost votes. In one of the worst cynical maneuvers I have ever encountered, the Clinton machine is counting on women voting for Clinton because the candidate is female. Clinton will have to fake a prolife and a strong Christian belief to get any GOP women to vote for her. And what will Hillary do when the radical feminists supporting her now start criticizing her change? The old cynic Hillary figures the NOW women will have no other choice. She's gambling, and she will lose.