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Dan Balz's Take

Clinton and Obama Camps Both Cheered by Polls


Will winter-weather voting bode well for Clinton? (AP).

DES MOINES -- Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama found good news overnight in the latest polls that continue to cascade down on Campaign 2008, and their campaigns moved quickly Wednesday morning to spin the Democratic race in their directions.

The good news for Obama came in a new University of New Hampshire survey for CNN and WMUR-TV. Long seen as a Clinton stronghold, New Hampshire has suddenly become a second competitive battleground in the Democratic nomination contest. The new poll showed Clinton now in a statistical tie with Obama, 31 percent to 30 percent.

The good news for Clinton came in a Washington Post-ABC News national poll, which showed Clinton with the biggest lead of the year over Obama and the other Democrats in the race, and an earlier AP/IPSOS poll that also showed her with a big lead. In the Post-ABC poll, Clinton was at 53 percent to 23 percent for Obama and 10 percent for John Edwards among likely voters.

Clinton's campaign reacted by sending out an e-mail with a memo from chief strategist Mark Penn, touting the New York senator's national margins, and a shifting issue terrain (less concern about Iraq, more about domestic issues) that he said plays to her strengths. Obama's campaign sent out an e-mail highlighting the New Hampshire results and a story warning of an imminent Clinton attack.

At this point in the campaign, with Iowa's caucuses 22 days away and the New Hampshire primary five days after that, national polls historically have been far less valuable indicators of the state of play than are polls in the earliest states. Penn has argued for months that this year might be different.

The reason that state polls carry more weight now is that the electorates in places like Iowa and New Hampshire are far ahead of voters elsewhere in taking a measure of the candidates. They have seen and heard the candidates in person, absorbed the considerable amount of coverage that local television stations and newspapers have devoted to the races in their states and watched the wall-to-wall ads the candidates are running on the local news.

National polls at this stage generally reflect an electorate that is weeks if not months behind voters in the early states and whose views of the race likely will be changed rapidly by the results in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

But the Clinton campaign has argued that, because of the new calendar and the fact that almost two dozen states will hold contests on Feb. 5, long-standing national perceptions of the candidates could be more important than in past campaigns.

"They are indicative of her support across Feb. 5th states and she is quite different from other candiates in the primary race," Penn wrote in an e-mail message Wednesday. "She has deep support in the big states based on years of knowing her and that is ultimately hard to overcome."

The Obama campaign has the opposite view. In their analysis, Obama has faced a major hurdle because most voters don't really know him. They have said for months that the longer he had to introduce himself, the more voters would like him. His strength in Iowa and now his growing strength in New Hampshire, they say, confirms their approach.

"National polls, and most importantly polls in Feb 5 states, will likely look much different after New Hampshire," David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager said in an email. "We believe Senator Clinton's support is very thin -- as is evidenced in some of the early states now -- and if she is unable to win both Iowa and New Hampshire her support levels will erode quickly. We are also the best organized in Feb 5 states, allowing us to take advantage of a shifting national dynamic."

They said for months they were not concerned about Clinton's lead in national polls. Earlier, when he appeared to be struggling in New Hampshire and was making only slow progress in Iowa, their assertions sounded like excuses. Now, they are quick to say, gently, we told you so.

Nothing in the way the Clinton campaign is operating, however, suggests anything other than concern about the state of the race right now, regardless of national polls. If anything, the Penn memo was designed as a way to reassure nervous Clinton supporters that, regardless of the fact that she in a very difficult fight in Iowa and New Hampshire, they should not despair about the longer-term prospects for her nomination.

Here in Iowa, advisers to the leading candidates discount even state polls of potential caucus-goers. They are focused on their own numbers. Each night they are calling thousands of Iowans. They are canvassing door-to-door, sizing up people who have said they will support their candidate to determine whether that person will actually turn out on the night of Jan. 3, particularly if the weather is bad.

The Clinton camp in particular doubts some of what has shown up in public polls, particularly her apparent erosion among women voters. The Obama campaign clearly senses even more forward motion for their candidate than the dead-heat polls indicate -- and other signs on the ground here support that view.

There will be many more polls in the next few weeks measuring attitudes here, in other early states and nationally. They will offer one view of where things stand. But the best measure will be to watch the candidates -- listen to what they say and whether they are positive or negative, watch where they spend their time and take their advisers' interpretations with a dose of skepticism.

The voters are soon to speak and there's never been a campaign in which their entry into the process, after months and months of inside chatter and analysis and predictions, hasn't changed things. Often in dramatic ways

--Dan Balz

Posted at 4:15 PM ET on Dec 12, 2007  | Category:  Dan Balz's Take
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Comments

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Whenever I hear Rupublicans cheering for a Democrat the way they are doing for Obama i know I must go for the other Democrat, Mrs. Clinton.

Why would Rove cheer for a Democrat and give free notes to beat another Democrat?

I will not allow the Republicans to bloody Democrats and get an easy victory against Obama next year.

Posted by: jblade89 | December 12, 2007 10:47 PM

"Nothing in the way the Clinton campaign is operating, however, suggests anything other than concern about the state of the race right now, regardless of national polls."


Mr Balz hits the nail on the head, with the above. I wonder how well their smear tactics will play over the holiday season? "Merry Christmas, Happy Hannukah, don't forget BHO is an inexperienced, drug-addled muslim radical!"

Posted by: bsimon | December 12, 2007 10:33 PM

INTERESTING Reading... Thanks Dork.
You copy and paste tired rehashed 'flat-earth' GOP trash quite well.

Posted by: PulSamsara | December 12, 2007 10:03 PM

DYCK,

I CHECKED, SNOPES, JUST LIKE YOU SAID,

AND YOU ARE A LIAR!!!

http://www.snopes.com/politics/obama/muslim.asp

GO AHEAD....GO LOOK AT THE SNOPES PAGE THAT THE IDIOT DYCK POSTED.

The Snopes site says, and i quote:

Claim: Illinois senator Barack Obama is a "radical, ideological Muslim".

Status: FALSE


My own claim; DYCK IS A LIAR.
Status: TRUE

Posted by: julieds | December 12, 2007 9:14 PM

I think everybody should take a deep breath.
You are attacking each other. This helps no one. If you think you are helping any candidate with rumors that have no cited proof because there is none, you are not. Unless of course you would like to see Rudy, Huckabee or Romney as the next President. The Republicans feed on this hateful discontent because they know a house divided, etc.
If that is the case I am very much afraid for all of us because we will be living in totalitarian society in which you will not be allowed to say anything. If that is your idea of how to gain ground, well you are entitled to your individual opinion always. Could we just tone it down a bit.
Thank You

Posted by: RetCombatVet | December 12, 2007 9:14 PM


No wonder America gets only losers to ren for office. Read most of the posts here..all that is going and all that is critical and all these ani can worry about is the meaning of some ridiculous poll....real leaders lead. not follow polls.... that is what is wrong with the system. Politicians don't stand for anything except responding to polls.. to thing that people laid down their lives for this..

Posted by: jstratt2 | December 12, 2007 8:16 PM

I am amazed at how many people still don't get it. Have you not learned anything from the past with how Bush got into the White House, not once, but twice? These people are hard core and they are not going to give up their corporate greed, war mongering/profiteering, who gives a crap about the middle class ways without a fight. When Karl Rove is givng advice to Obama, hello, doesn't that seem more than a little ODD??

Posted by: wodiej61 | December 12, 2007 7:55 PM

The weather outside is frightful,
for Obama, the polls delightful,
And for Hillary one more blow,
She's gotta go, gotta go, gotta go.

Everybody! Following the bouncing ball...
Oops channeling a little Mitch Miller (who?) HA!

The Obama camp has to be pleased with these polls. And the attempted smear by Billy Shaheen won't work because -- wait for it -- Barack wrote about it in his first book, unlike a current President who hid his drug and alcohol problem from his daughters only to have it crop up unexpectedly in the last days of the general election in 2000. Or another former President from Arkansas who claimed he tried pot but "didn't inhale" while in grad school in England.

One is secretive. One is disingenuous. One is honest.

One is Barack Obama.

Posted by: jade7243 | December 12, 2007 7:52 PM

There's someone really sick out there posting sick comments about Obama in almost every comment section of the digital media.

He or she changes names here and there ("dyck21005" here on the Washingtonpost and "sickofOprahObama" in 'The Swamp'/ Baltimoresun.com' but posts exactly the same comments without respect to the article being discussed.

Now I call that a real 'sicko'.

What's the sense in spending time repeatedly posting a single malicious article about someone?

If you hate Obama, why not dwell on the positive traits of the candidate you support?

Posted by: hayesgreenfield | December 12, 2007 7:09 PM

There's someone really sick out there posting sick comments about Obama in almost every comment section of the digital media.

He or she changes names here and there ("dyck21005" here on the Washingtonpost and "sickofOprahObama" in 'The Swamp'/ Baltimoresun.com' but posts exactly the same comments without respect to the article being discussed.

Now I call that a real 'sicko'.

What's the sense in spending time repeatedly posting a single malicious article about someone?

If you hate Obama, why not dwell on the positive traits of the candidate you support?

Posted by: hayesgreenfield | December 12, 2007 7:09 PM

dyck21005 is a Hillary campaign plant who has repeatedly posted that bogus story about "Obama is a radical muslim" rumor. Amzing how the low many in the Hillary campaign are will to go to get votes. Pathetic.

Posted by: zb95 | December 12, 2007 7:05 PM

Dan, you are getting better. (When can we say that of Anne Kornblut?) This makes a nice stab at being a piece of balanced reporting. Except perhaps for the cute Christmassy photo of a Hillary campaign poster, its rosy pro-Clinton caption, and the 'balanced' title of your article: how can both camps be "cheered" on the day her massive New Hampshire lead was just wiped out, while there is no substantial change in national polls. No other media outlet has taken this 'balanced' line today. The Washington Post continues to be the most pro-Clinton source. But your final paragraph states the essential truth of the situation: the voters will decide, indeed are deciding, and I am relieved that it is starting to look like the pundits are catching up with reality rather than trying to preempt this race. I, of course, am highly biased. I bet my friend $100 that Obama would be the next President the day he announced his candidacy, and I only had $500 in the bank at the time. Maybe the Washington Post would like to hire me as a political consultant? I could use the money.

Posted by: tony848 | December 12, 2007 7:05 PM

How come no mention of Edwards?

According to a CNN poll yesterday,

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2007/12/12/513031.aspx?CommentPosted=true#commentmessage

he polls better against Republicans than either Hillary or Obama.

Edwards is the sleeper, who will win Iowa, and be the nominee.

Posted by: river845 | December 12, 2007 6:59 PM

Please take down the offensive post of one of your reader which was Posted by: dyck21005 | December 12, 2007 05:09 PM. It is offensive.

Posted by: emmygell | December 12, 2007 6:23 PM

Obama,s rise is hyped by the press. The press likes tight races. Do you remember how they forced Obama to go on the attack. When he did they started saying that that may hurt him. Hillary inevitablity was also created by the press. As far as i know Hillary has never said that is inevitable. Baraka is an exceptional politician. There fore this was bound to tough fight for both of them. I am glad it's no coronation. But Hillary wins it.

Posted by: atugonza1962 | December 12, 2007 6:22 PM

Hey ravenquill, am waiting for you to commit suicide because any way Hillary is going to win the nomination and go on to be President of this country. I can not wait for that day Jan/02/o9. The likes of you are just jealousy of her great achievements. She is a great woman for giving stupid Republicans sleepless nights.

Posted by: atugonza1962 | December 12, 2007 6:15 PM

That national poll is meaningless. The real story is that Obama now is tied or have leads in all 3 early states and still heading up while Hillary is heading down. If Obama wins those first 3 states its probably over -- the momemtum will carry him to the nomination. This story attempts to downplay the poll trends which are clearly in Obama's favor. Bias anyone?

Posted by: zb95 | December 12, 2007 6:07 PM

I was amazed by Rush Limbugh,s wining after the cnn debate that cnn disrespected and demeaned Republican candidates during the debate in the way they were introduced by the man with a guiter. Rush demeans demcratic candidates all the time on his show. What is good for the gander is also good for goose. I do not agree with Rush any way.Republican candidates wit the exception of Huckebe and maccain, they are all biguitted sycomphants

Posted by: atugonza1962 | December 12, 2007 6:06 PM

First of all a comment about a comment...

Obama's time is not now _ what do i have to wait until I live in a dictatorship, do i have to wait until things get worse, do I have to wait until politicians in the MAINSTREAM (READ HILARY) STOP LYING, IF THATS THE CASE I WILL WAITING FOR ETERNITY

Now onto some other commentary

Of course the poles come out in her favor they are done by people and with people who are invested in the way things are....I took statistics you can male a poll say anything...so I will not vote via polls, I will vote for whom i think the best candidate is....I have voted democrat I have voted Republican, i have voted independent, and the fact is that the democrats and republican have sadly disappointed for the democratic party to stand behind Hilary is just disgusting she is panderer and a liar, As a woman she makes me shamed that she is the same sec I am....as far as ANYONE in her campaign pointing the finger about drug use PLEASE spare me your alley cat morals...disgusting is what it is.

Posted by: ravenquill | December 12, 2007 6:05 PM

Hey Demcrats, cool down and think.Why are Republicans cheering Obama. All conservative talk show hosts are cheering Obama and giving him advise on how to defeat Clinton. listen to the likes of Hannity and the stupid Rush Limbugh. Even Karl Rove wrote a piece advising him how to challenge Hillary. The only reason they are doing that is they are scared of the Clintons. They will not be able able to swift boat her the way they did to Senator Kerry and he could not fire back. Guys am tired of losing elections.Just wait and see what the republicans will unleash should Obama win the nomination. Do you wonder why they nolonger remind people falsely that Obama 's middle name is Hussein.And unfortunately the mad will stick as it stuck with Kerry. Hillary has been tested, they have said all the terrible stuff about and she still beats any republican. We have to win this election.You know what's is at stake my friends. Supreme court, endless wars, tax cuts to the top 1% forgetting the middle class the back borne of this economy, rising healthy care costs out of reach to the majority of Americans,the list goes on. Much as Obama can be an excellent President, his time is not now.

Posted by: atugonza1962 | December 12, 2007 5:57 PM

I spent this summer in Iowa. In general, small town white folk liked Barack even before many of them planned to vote for him.

So when Hillary goes after him, she sounds so flat to a lot of people. As an Obama supporter, I hope she keeps trying to explain to folks why they should turn against him.

Posted by: lwrzesin | December 12, 2007 5:56 PM

Hey Demcrats, cool down and think.Why are Republicans cheering Obama. All conservative talk show hosts are cheering Obama and giving him advise on how to defeat Clinton. Even Karl Rove wrote a piece advising him how to challenge Hillary. The only reason they are doing that is they are scared of the Clintons. They will not be able able to swift boat her the way they did to Senator Kerry and he could not fire back. Guys am tired of losing elections.Just wait and see what the republicans will unleash should Obama winthe nomination. Do you wonder why they nolonger remind people falsely that Obama 's middle name is Hussein. Hillary has been tested, they have said all the terrible stuff about and she still beats any republican. We have to win this election.You know what's is at stake my friends. Supreme court, endless wars, tax cuts to the top 1% forgetting the middle class the back borne of this economy, rising healthy care costs out of reach to the majority of Americans,the list goes on. Much as Obama can be an excellent President, his time is not now.

Posted by: atugonza1962 | December 12, 2007 5:53 PM

dyck - You certainly are.

Posted by: donrochon2003 | December 12, 2007 5:50 PM

Does anyone actually feel that they should know if something is true brfore they post it. We have Obama being a radical muslim and drug addict, Hillary is a lesbian and mass murderer who knowingly let Bin laden excape. Where do you people get these "facts".

At the very least we know that Obama has been a practicing Christian for many years. I believe that there are amny many christians who consider themselves to be devout chistians even though they have been practicing for only a relatively short time. But in the end, who cares if Obama is christian, is that supposed to be some sort of requirement for a good president? Bush is an extreme example of how bad a christian president can be. Is Hillary a lesbian, I don't know, but I am sure none of you do either. Is she a mass murderer, not in any tradition sense, certainly not like Bush/Cheney. Did Hillary let Bin Laden escape, that's giving her way too much credit as first Lady, and I doubt that Bill intended to let Osama get away either.

Let's stick to things that we actually know, or better still let's look at what the candidates have done and are likely to do in the future, and not worry about their personal life and beliefs.

Posted by: bjuhasz | December 12, 2007 5:46 PM

Anastasia-2, I never, ever did drugs. I used to smoke light cigarettes in my youth, My health doesn't allow me to do it now; that is as far as I ever was connected to drugs. I am sure that government's officials were involved in Oklahoma bombing, other way it had been physically impossible to achieve such degree of damage, as had been achieved. I HAVE NO DIRECT PROOFS that Mrs. Clinton was involved in this issue. But Mr. Clinton didn't want to execute McVeigh, probably saving his life, as the leverage against his wife-co-ruler, but Mr. Bush executed him as soon as he obtained power. Mrs. Clinton has been pressing for execution of Nichols for a long while of time also, but unsuccessfully.

Posted by: aepelbaum | December 12, 2007 5:39 PM

dyck21005-

That type of slanderous statement is what makes Hillary's campaign look bad. As an Obama supporter, I encourage you to keep posting these things. Hillary has already had to fire two volunteers for forwarding these false emails and it is embarrassing to a campaign that is already panicking such as Clinton's.

Posted by: benjamin.j.silver | December 12, 2007 5:38 PM

Zukermand, D. Balz need to make money, and WP, New York Times, CNN (meaning for Bush and current government), etc., etc., etc. are working for Clintons. I have seen D. Balz in a few PBS broadcasting, he, certainly, doesn't like Mrs. Clinton (who does?) and doesn't want her incomng presidency, but he needs to keep his job, as others, like Anne Kornblut, and so on need. Anyhow, I really hope that Obama would win, it would be the important victory of common sense. When Clintons, who intentionally spared Osama Bin Laden and were so close and friendly with Arafat, Saudies, Pakistani radicals, etc. are talking about their devotion to this country, or to the christian values, I am seeing in front of my eyes obviously demolishing towers of WTC on 9/11.

Posted by: aepelbaum | December 12, 2007 5:28 PM

Wow. They'll let just anyone use the internet these days, won't they?

dyck21005: When you resort to using someone's Muslim-sounding middle name repeatedly as your main argument against a candidate, you sound like a moron. Even worse, you sound like Ann Coulter.

aepelbaum: You think Hillary Clinton was responsible for the Oklahoma City bombings? You've been believing what you wrote in your crystal meth journal while tweaking again, haven't you?

Sigh. I wish Oprah would pick Carl Sagan's "The Demon-Haunted World," particularly the "baloney detection kit" chapter, for her book club. Otherwise there is very little hope for critical thinking in the United States.

Posted by: anastasia2 | December 12, 2007 5:25 PM

Dyck21005, how come that the man who is the well known member of Christian church here in Illinois for many years by now is radical muslim? During his entire adult life Obama has been the devoted Christian, at least within the time when Mrs. Clinton has been the devoted liar and a occasional mass and personal murderess. I do not think that these actions of hers can honestly co-exist with any positive moral she has. It means that she doesn't have ANY moral and ANY religious virtues.

Posted by: aepelbaum | December 12, 2007 5:17 PM

Whan this murderess -Hillary Clinton is trying to talk about moral or drug usage in Obama teenage years, I really think that this dirty criminal - Mrs. Clinton has no limit whatsoever of her disgusting hypocrisy and arrogance. She ordered so named "suicide" of Foster in 1993, and mysterious murder of her lesbian lover ( in 1997) a bit later than when Obama was able to use drugs. Americans want someone similar to them, as a president, not a saint, who might have tried drugs, as many other Americans did, but not the cold blooded murderess of her former intimate friends, and mass murderess of children (Oklahoma bombing), as our "wonderful" Mrs. Clinton is. When this piece of stinken crime would be finally out of public sight? I really can't wait.

Posted by: aepelbaum | December 12, 2007 5:11 PM

INTERESTING READING! THANKS Obama researcher!!OBAMA'S BACKGROUND CHECK !!!!!! I am surprised Oprah did not do her home work, or did she...We checked this out on "snopes.com". It is factual. Check for yourself. Probable U.S. presidential candidate, Barack Hussein
Obama was born in Honolulu, Hawaii to Barack Hussein Obama, Sr., a black MUSLIM from Nyangoma-Kogel, Kenya and Ann Dunham, a white ATHIEST from Wichita, Kansas. Obama's parents met at the University of Hawaii. When Obama was two years old, his parents divorced. His father returned to Kenya . His mother then married Lolo Soetoro, a RADICAL Muslim from Indonesia.? When Obama was 6 years old, the family relocated to Indonesia. Obama attended a MUSLIM school in Jakarta. He also spent two years in a Catholic school. Obama t akes great care to conceal the fact that he is a Muslim. He is quick to point out that, "He was once a Muslim, but that he also attended Catholic school." Obama's political handlers are attempting to make it appear that he is no longer Muslim. Obama's introduction to Islam came via his father, and that this influence was temporary at best. In reality, the senior Obama returned to Kenya soon after the divorce, and never again had any direct influence over his son's education. Lolo Soetoro, the second husband of Obama's mother, Ann Dunham, introduced his stepson to Islam. Obama was enrolled in a Wahabi school in Jakarta . Wahabism is the RADICAL teaching that is followed by the Muslim terrorists who are now waging Jihad against the western world. Since it is politically expedient to be a CHRISTIAN when seeking major public office in the United States, Barack Hussein Obama has joined the United Church of Christ in an attempt to downplay his Muslim background. ALSO, keep in mind that when he was sworn into office he DID NOT use the Holy Bible, as all of our other public officials, but instead the Koran. Let us all remain alert concerning Obama's expected presidential candidacy. The Muslims have said they plan on destroying the US from the inside out, what better way to start than at the highest evel - through the President of the United States, one of their own!!!!

Posted by: dyck21005 | December 12, 2007 5:09 PM

'Nothing in the way the Clinton campaign is operating, however, suggests anything other than concern about the state of the race right now, regardless of national polls. If anything, the Penn memo was designed as a way to reassure nervous Clinton supporters that, regardless of the fact that she in a very difficult fight in Iowa and New Hampshire, they should not despair about the longer-term prospects for her nomination."

This is, of course, baseless speculation, but hey, it's "Balz's Take" so I guess it's OK. Why can't Mr Balz just be a professional journalist? Is that so much to ask?

Posted by: zukermand | December 12, 2007 5:04 PM

Come on...our current president is a former alcoholic who used cocaine extensively.

There aren't many voters under the age of 60 who never tried illegal drugs.

It's a non-issue.

Posted by: jmp66 | December 12, 2007 4:55 PM

Clean reporting, much appreciated.

Posted by: rarignac | December 12, 2007 4:50 PM

Hillary Clinton is an empty shell, saying whatever it is she thinks will get a particular audience to vote for her.

Barack Obama tells us what he really believes, whatever his audience wants to hear.

And, just like the experts you cite, I don't care what the polls say, either, because I'm voting for integrity.

America (and the world) NEED a US president that can be trusted.

Posted by: miraclestudies | December 12, 2007 4:48 PM

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