Dan Balz's Take
A Diligent Clinton Keeps Her Head Down
By Dan Balz
DES MOINES -- Hillary Clinton will close out nearly a year of campaigning in Iowa with a New Year's Eve rally in downtown Des Moines late Monday night. It will be glitzy and splashy and will feature her most significant surrogate, her husband the former president.
But what is striking about the final days of one of the most fascinating campaigns any of us have witnessed here in Iowa is how Clinton has avoided becoming the focus of attention. The national front-runner has become, if not invisible, virtually ignored -- and that seems just the way she wants it.
Barack Obama and John Edwards have zeroed in on one another. Joe Biden, Bill Richardson and Chris Dodd hunger for attention. Clinton is methodically moving around the state, saying the same thing at virtually every stop. She has given a few interviews, but made little news.
The style is classic Hillary Clinton, the girl with the responsibility gene, the always-prepared student who never skips her homework. Her final days in Iowa are as disciplined as they are unexceptional -- except perhaps where it counts, in reaching out to Iowa voters. (But that we will not know until Thursday night.)
The campaigns are drowning in data but no one is certain about where the Democratic race is heading. Everyone here awaits the release of the Des Moines Register's final poll, which historically has been accurate in the order of finish, if not always the margins between the candidates.
But polling here is more treacherous than ever. Christmas interrupted opportunities to poll early last week. The weekend is never a good time to poll and particularly difficult between Christmas and New Year's. And the last days of the caucus campaign will be overtaken by celebrations ringing in the election year.
Beyond that, Iowans have stopped answering their phones. One Democrat estimated that proven caucusgoers are getting as many as 15 telephone calls a night from campaigns and pollsters. A young man I spoke to on Sunday night, who said he has attended more than 50 candidate events over the past year, said he gets about half a dozen each evening. Conditions for polling, as a result, couldn't be worse.
The campaigns are making their own phone calls to supporters and to undecided voters. They are working off elaborate and sophisticated targeting projections. The campaigns have their vote goals and all claim to be on track to meeting them. But all are based on assumptions of how large the turnout will be on Thursday -- and there the range of estimates is so large as to be laughable.
Eight years ago, just 59,000 Iowans participated in the Democratic caucuses. Four years ago that doubled to 124,181. This year estimates run to 140,000 or 160,000 -- or in the guesstimate of former Iowa Democratic chair (and Obama senior adviser) Gordon Fischer, up to 200,000 -- an astounding figure, but one which Fischer believes is plausible given the intensity that has been evident here for a year.
So campaign vote goals could be rendered virtually useless if there is an enormous surge in turnout on Thursday night. Everyone could hit their targets and find the numbers meaningless. In the face of that uncertainty, having a game plan and executing it is crucial, which is what all the campaigns believe they are doing.
But who would have guessed that Clinton would have avoided becoming the target in the final days in Iowa?
It has been long assumed that a victory here by the former first lady could start her on an unstoppable march to the nomination. In truth, the Democratic campaign has been surprisingly lacking in attack ads and negative campaigning. The Republican contest between Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney has become far more negative in tone than the three-way battle among Clinton, Obama and Edwards.
One reason is that the risks of launching attacks in a three-way contest are far greater than in a two-way battle. Another is that Iowans genuinely like all the Democratic candidates and aren't anxious to see someone begin tearing down the others.
Bill Clinton made that point again Sunday night when he spoke in Carlisle, Iowa, just outside Des Moines. He likes all the candidates, he said, but Iowans have to decide which of them they think would make the best president.
There is a workaday quality to the Clinton message -- to the messages of both Clintons actually. Call it bread-and-butter or kitchen-table economics, but the Clintons have never forgotten what got Bill Clinton to the White House.
What got them there was a relentless focus on the middle class and a list of programmatic solutions aimed at easing the economic anxiety that many Americans felt then and feel today -- and the Clintons are still focused on such concerns.
Bill Clinton spoke for an hour on Sunday night, weaving together his wife's accomplishments (with some embellishment) over 35 years and his own record as president. He talked for 45 minutes before he managed to get to his wife's years in the Senate.
His speech was laced with policy past and future (he described how he and his wife solved so many problems that it begged the question of why there is still so much left for a Clinton presidency to do).
Hillary Clinton is doing the same in her own way at stop after stop in Iowa, head down, avoiding the chattering class. "We're locked and loaded on our message," said Howard Wolfson, Clinton's communications director. "Other candidates are making news by attacking other candidates. They're going to run their race. The race we're going to run is focusing people on who's ready to be president."
Clinton took hits earlier in the race and suffered from her own missteps. She and Obama have sparred over the past week on the questions of experience and change. Obama has tried to engage her further but has been distracted by the rise of Edwards -- leaving Clinton largely free to move through the state without distractions.
Who would have guessed that the person everyone wants to beat in Iowa would be finishing 2007 this way?
Posted at 2:01 PM ET on Dec 31, 2007
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Bill "likes all the candidates, he said, but Iowans have to decide which of them they think would make the best president"
Who is he kidding? he's been to the gutter and back trying to bring down Obama. His wife's campaign should serve as a painful lesson for the black electorate: You're either with us or we'll slur your only hope in the race.However, after trashing Obama, we'll get back to pandering you for your vote and you'll have no choice but to vote for Hillary.Brilliant.
This time around, blacks should teach the democratic party's big wigs a lesson of their own:We sit our behinds home if HRC or JE gets nominated.And you'll get your chosen candidate's behind whipped by the republicans, again. Take that, racist pigs?
Posted by: ednyo2000 | December 31, 2007 02:27 PM
Just saw Obama's financials. Seems odd that he has miminal assets except a $1.9M house that he recently purchased. Don't expect our President to be rich but also don't want him worrying about paying his bills.
Posted by: jcfbiggs | December 31, 2007 03:20 PM
Ha! Good story, and very true. Hillary is staying on message, and making a point to visit every corner of the state. Post 9/11, HRC is the only candidate I trust to lead this country back to international respect, fiscal responsibility, and a new Iraq policy. Go Girl!
Clinton/Bayh 2008
Posted by: aboyzboi | December 31, 2007 03:22 PM
bill clinton can go to hell, iowa and stay there as far as i'm concerned. you and your bride blew it with me, a lifelong democrat, with your racist whispers about barack obama. how sad and stupid for bill that he'd squander the good will black folks have for him 'cause he's trying to shove his wife down our throats. no thanks, bill. and no thanks, hill!
Posted by: esles2000 | December 31, 2007 03:42 PM
With the Iowa caucuses rapidly approaching the candidates are pressing their main messages with renewed intensity. The key to campaigning appears to be to "stay on message" regardless of the chaos around you. I am not sure how substantive it is to have a candidate repeat the same slogan over and over, to our political discourse, but this seems to be the conventional wisdom. The daily mantra for Hillary Clinton is "strength and experience". The ex-First Lady cites her experience as a major difference between her and her opponents and one worthy of giving her the nomination. Something about her being able to "hit the ground" running, to where we aren't quite sure. The experience that Ms. Clinton is touting is not just her experience as a junior Senator from New York, given that her closest two rivals also share that experience, no it is her experience in the White House as First Lady.
I for one believe that her experience as First Lady is not necessarily transferable to the position she is now vying for, no more than I believe that First Lady Laura Bush is qualified to be President based on her experiences in the White House. For some reason in this country it is assumed and accepted by many that political positions are hereditary and therefore subject to transfer between fathers and sons, husbands and wives, or brothers. I have often found the reasoning for this strange and not very convincing. I think that many times history has borne out the fact that this idea of transference is not a reliable method of picking our leaders.
The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie -- deliberate, contrived and dishonest -- but the myth -- persistent, persuasive and unrealistic - John F. Kennedy
Posted by: jhawk10 | December 31, 2007 03:51 PM
Barack Obama for President.
It's time for America to Rise and Shine again.
Posted by: PulSamsara | December 31, 2007 04:07 PM
Do you believe a win in Iowa for Sen. Hillary Clinton would guarantee her the Democratic Presidential Nomination?
http://www.youpolls.com/details.asp?pid=1413
.
Posted by: PollM | December 31, 2007 04:10 PM
There are but three viable candidates for the Dem nomination and they are: Clinton, Biden, and Dodd. The U.S. would be none the worse off if either of these three were inaugerated in Jan. 2009.
Obama is not ready. He will be a shoe-in in 2016 and will serve as many terms as permissible.
Bill Richardson should go home and be the best governor he can be.
Posted by: LarryHighPointNC | December 31, 2007 04:15 PM
to esles2000, ednyo2000, so this campaign of Obama IS a racial thing. Glad you said so. Oprah tried to pit black against white but that never reached the press. Obama is about as black as a bowl of vanilla ice cream. Clinton did more for blacks than any other president except Lyndon Johnson.
Posted by: drk797 | December 31, 2007 04:19 PM
Wow! The Drive-By Media wonders why the Drive-By Media is leaving Bill's wife alone.
Do ya think it's the Drive-By Media?
Nah, the Drive-By Media helping a candidate by ignoring that candidate - that can't be.....
Posted by: PerryM1 | December 31, 2007 04:35 PM
Clinton is going to win this. I can feel it in my bones. Not very scientific but for that I turn to the fundamentals of all the national polls. On all the key attribute questions like experience and electability, or the policy questions like ability to manage Iraq/the economy/healthcare, Clinton wins not just narrowly but by a mile. Then there are the polls of the past few days in IA itself. Clinton is steady while Obama and Edwards are jumping around perhaps indicating the softness of their support. And given the Obama tactics of the last few days one has to assume they are getting nervous about the outcome.
Posted by: johnbsmrk | December 31, 2007 04:39 PM
Clinton has lost my vote due to her pitiful strategy of using racist undertones to sway voters from Obama. I still like all three Democratic candidates, but i will not vote for her in the general election. She lost a large section of the black electorate by that sad move...and she doesn't even know it yet. For shame, now i'll have to sit out of the general election if Edwards or Obama doesn't make it.
Posted by: dranfu | December 31, 2007 04:43 PM
HRC go and get them tiger. You are finishing in just the most dignified and intelligent way. Cook
Posted by: claudiacook | December 31, 2007 04:57 PM
Dems are SOOOOOO stupid if Hillary is nominated.
Hillary is the least electable of the bunch. In this angus-reid poll out today, the only republican Hillary can beat is ROMNEY.
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/29506/obama_leads_five_republicans_in_us_race
It doesn't matter how many Dems like the Clintons, if regular Americans don't like them, the Clintons won't win in 2008.
Posted by: julieds | December 31, 2007 05:23 PM
Hillary is going to have to open her mouth at some point....I think her campaign is realizing that there is a direct correlation between her mouth yapping and her negative numbers rising.... Hillary and Bubba need to just go away back to their trailer park in Arkansas.
Posted by: charko825 | December 31, 2007 05:26 PM
Obama has trouble with stump speeches. His mouth is engaged before his brain. He does a lot of sputtering and stammering. Can you imagine the trouble he would have making a decision?
HRC/WJC the only way to go!
Posted by: mortified469 | December 31, 2007 05:48 PM
It is time to say Clintons Good Bye. America has seen enough dynasties. GW Bush is not HW Bush and HR Clinton is not W Clinton.
Posted by: khctamu | December 31, 2007 05:56 PM
Hillary Clinton simply cannot trust herself being caught in another lie. That is why she is MIA. It is now to close to the actual caucus and if she slipped, showing her strongly Progressive, Socialist agenda, she would surely loose. She actually is worse than Bill when it comes to Honesty... "I never had sexual relations with that woman..." The House of Clinton needs to end NOW.
Posted by: stephen.m.kessler | December 31, 2007 05:59 PM
Yes she keeps her head down by criticizing Edwards today on the stump.
Stop spreading the lie that she is above the fray
Without mentioning him by name, Clinton also appeared to mock Edwards's fired-up speaking style.
"It's not something you have to do by yelling and screaming. Save your energy. Get the job done," she said about battling special interests. "Instead of generating a lot of heat, rolling your hands and jumping up and down, sit down and figure out how we're going to beat them."
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5iNxTApa2sQRu0Xx99P3jt2bEXw7gD8TSMUHO0
Who do you think she was talking about? Americans are not stupid. Stop trying to frame the campaign.
Posted by: TennGurl | December 31, 2007 06:00 PM
I don't know about Iowa but a lot of Florida Republicans feel like the candidates in their party would benefit from a vote in the primary for Hillary. So, they've reregistered (switched party) as Democrats for next month's primary in order to vote for her and will switch back in February.
Posted by: wmboyd | December 31, 2007 06:06 PM
What a lot of vitriol! let's face it -- all, that is ALL, of the Democratic candidates are qualified, interesting, intelligent, caring. And all, yes ALL of the Republicans are pandering and unrealistic about the war, about health care,about education, about corporate greed. so those of you who shout racist about Hillary are being silly. c'mon. and if you say you'll stay home if she gets the Dem nomination you are cutting off your nose to spite your face. We absolutely don't want another Republican for the next 50 years. or forever for that matter. We Dems have to stick together and not be dragged into the backbiting and nastiness of Republicans. we don't want to turn ourselves into Karl Roves. Whoever wins the Dem nomination deserves to be supported by all of us. don't get duped into being as negative, divisive and stupid as the Republicans. go Democrats!!
Posted by: hagueacademic | December 31, 2007 06:24 PM
I also will not be supporting Clinton in the general election, because of the racial stereotypes they used. Years ago, I wrote her a letter to run in NY, that I would be happy to work in her campaign. I phone banked for the campaign.
Her rival was my congressman when I lived on Long Island. Rick Lazio. I also campaigned for Steve Israel who beat the Republican replacement.
I was floored by the attack. I definetely expected that from the Republicans, but not from the Clintons of all people. Our first...ahem "Black President"
As to Edwards he also is doing the, "wink wink, nudge nudge, I am the southern white boy strategy. Though not as obvious as the Clinton attack. It politics and it is hardball, so I'll let Edwards message go, since it was actually expected. This is America....The place Edwards calls TWO Americas. LOL the irony.
Unfortunately, he voted for the war and this year I won't settle, like I did with Kerry/Edwards last time. I won't campaign against Edwards or Hillary, but I won't vote or campaign for them either.
So.... I see myself sitting it out this election. There will be no anti war candidate I can really believe in. I currently live in NC so my vote probably won't matter anyway.
For the record I currently have a nephew who just got back from Iraq. Thankfully in good shape. So this issue is very important to me, since I also was against the war from the beginning.
To republicans, while I disagree with McCain, I will say that I don't believe he would have resorted to the Karl Rove tactics and that is saying a lot. He is probably the only Republican I can stomach, because at least when he says something, you can believe it..... As much as I disagree with it.
Posted by: vitana1900 | December 31, 2007 06:33 PM
Hillary should be asked about her loving husband, Bill Clinton and his recieving million dollar donations from Dubai Ports and the Saudi Royalty for his Library in Arkansas.
"I did not have sexual realtions with that woman." "I did not inhale"
How many more lies will we be subjected to?
Tell us about Bill sponsoring Nafta and the loss of three million good paying jobs!
Posted by: umt | December 31, 2007 06:38 PM
Who better to stump for this career criminal than a disbarred lawyer & impeached President? And with Bill she gets both rolled into one.
Now if she could just get those imprisoned donors to show up.....................
Posted by: eco-pharm | December 31, 2007 06:38 PM
What a lot of vitriol! let's face it -- all, that is ALL, of the Democratic candidates are qualified, interesting, intelligent, caring. And all, yes ALL of the Republicans are pandering and unrealistic about the war, about health care,about education, about corporate greed. so those of you who shout racist about Hillary are being silly. c'mon. and if you say you'll stay home if she gets the Dem nomination you are cutting off your nose to spite your face. We absolutely don't want another Republican for the next 50 years. or forever for that matter. We Dems have to stick together and not be dragged into the backbiting and nastiness of Republicans. we don't want to turn ourselves into Karl Roves. Whoever wins the Dem nomination deserves to be supported by all of us. don't get duped into being as negative, divisive and stupid as the Republicans. go Democrats!!
********************************************
What an uninformed, closed minded, bigot you are. You're all the things you claim to be against. You must hate yourself.
Posted by: eco-pharm | December 31, 2007 06:43 PM
Boy, I sure don't see the attraction Clinton has for some people. She is a carpetbagger pure and simple, and speaking of being simple, she is the prize example.
Oh, she's sly and underhanded and vindictive for sure, all top priority's for a president, eh?
What she really is, is a loser! I'm very hopeful that Iowan's see her for this reality and give her a last place finish, along with that goofy husband of hers. Just two scheming chumps trying to get back in the catbird seat at the Whitehouse.
We can well do without either one of them! Let's all help her keep her head down -- forever!
Posted by: surfer-joe | December 31, 2007 06:43 PM
That's just the point: Billary doesn't give us any meaningful answers. Her answers are Clintonesque in their evasiveness. Thats bascically her campaign. One night she's for drivers licenses for illegals, wakes up to realize thats not too popular with the public, and lo and behold, the next night shes not for drivers licenses for illegals. And so it goes. Its time for this pinch faced bag to get lost and leave us alone.
Posted by: birvin9999 | December 31, 2007 06:50 PM
Well folks WaPo has decided to let us post http links.
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Posted by: harried | December 31, 2007 07:10 PM
Http links?!?! Let me test. Here goes:
http://www.correntewire.com/obama_stump_speech_strategy_of_conciliation_considered_harmful
Posted by: lambert_strether1 | December 31, 2007 07:17 PM
Kudos to those who recognize the racist idealogue that Hil and her husband hold, always did hold while in office.
The way they are blundering, it shows that Ron Brown was a major brain in the Bill Cli nton Presidential administration, and he and his entire staff were killed without investigation which seems so odd. Ron Brown was understood to have certain truths under his belt as well as his intelligence.
Some suspected Clinton, but with the hatchet job they are trying on Obama it's evident, Ron Brown was like Karl Rove in the Bush presidential admin.
Blacks, yeah wake up! 2007 has been the year of the truth, and 2008, a year of new beginnings!!!
See the light, it's bright and in your face!
Posted by: scheduler | December 31, 2007 07:21 PM
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