A Prognosticator Who Got it Right
By Dan Balz
DES MOINES -- Give Gordon Fischer the credit he deserves. The former Iowa Democratic chairman and now a senior adviser to Barack Obama's Iowa campaign went out on a limb before the caucuses, predicting not just a record turnout but an extraordinary turnout.
Interviewed Sunday night at an Obama rally in Indianola, Fischer boldly predicted that turnout would be 200,000. At the time, the bravest of prognosticators were saying turnout could reach as much as 160,000. Most anticipated turnout of 140,000 to 150,000.
But Fischer dismissed those predictions. "There's such intense field operations by all the campaigns," he said. "Everybody's coming out."
In the end, more than 235,000 Iowans attended the caucuses, at least 110,000 more than showed up four years ago and at least 176,000 more than in 2000.
Fischer's only hesitation was when he was asked whether there was any way Obama could lose if the turnout were as high as he was predicting. "Sure," he said, noting that Hillary Clinton was poised to turn out many women who had never attended a caucus before.
But when asked which candidate would turn out the most new caucusgoers, he didn't hesitate. "Obama," he said.
On that, and on the turnout, his antennae were as sharp as those of anyone in the state.
Posted at 11:59 PM ET on Jan 3, 2008
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Posted by: obiwankenobe1250 | January 4, 2008 10:22 AM
Give yourself credit, as well, Mr. Balz, for bringing this up. I'm glad you're giving Mr. Fischer credit. I only wish you'd have mentioned that you personally looked at his contention disdainfully.
Posted by: cmss1 | January 4, 2008 2:43 AM
I thought Joe Biden was the classiest candidate the Democratic Party has had in a while, but since he is no longer an option, I think it is important for the party to rally around Obama and save financial resources for the fight this fall.
Congratulations to Obama and to Gordon Fischer!!! On to November!!!
Martin Edwin Andersen
Churchton, Maryland
Posted by: Martinedwinandersen | January 4, 2008 12:57 AM
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Well done, Dan Balz,
It is indeed an honor to have served in the volunteer roll of an Obama Precinct Co-Captain for four months. Four years ago, I was a Gephardt PC (I'm still living under the vague memory of having told many in our precinct that Gephardt could *handily* beat Bush, but to no avail. We weren't even viable in 2004 -- so we'll never know the answer to that question. What we DO know, however, is that Kerry lost Iowa by 10,000 votes! I tried to tell them, but no one would listen! :^)).
Fortunately, our candidate did not make me look stupid this year. I picked Obama in August, Gordon in September. He, being astute, held back until he had processed all the variables -- I just went with my gut.
The probability that Gordon would make a bad choice is extremely low -- he is brilliant about such things. He added much credibility to my thought processes and, I've gotta admit, it's more fun working for a winning campaign. When you've picked a candidate to support, it's good to know Gordon Fischer is with you.
So, my hat is always off to Mr. Gordon Fischer and his IowaTrueBlue dot org Blog. Very helpful for this process of picking a winner.