Morning Cheat Sheet
Populist, But Not Popular Message on Economy
By Peter Baker
As the presidential candidates tumble all over each other offering economic plans and expressing their concern about the prospect of recession, the two contenders who have offered populist messages aimed at the economically dislocated have not gotten as much traction as they might have expected on the issue.
As Dan Balz wrote in his Take yesterday and as we expanded on in a story in this morning's print edition, the economy has risen to become the top issue among Republicans and Democrats this year, eclipsing Iraq, immigration and terrorism. Former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani offered a new tax cut plan yesterday intended to stimulate the economy, while Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) plans to unveil today her own stimulus package, reportedly including $70 billion in spending and $40 billion in tax rebates.
And yet former North Carolina senator John Edwards on the Democratic side and former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee on the Republican side, both of whom have talked most passionately about the plight of those left behind in this economy, emerged from this week's New Hampshire primary with only a little more support among voters concerned about the economy than those who are not. The results suggest that they either have not gotten their messages through to their target audience or that economically distressed voters may simply have more faith that their party front-runners will be more electable or more likely to achieve their goals.
According to exit poll numbers compiled by Post polling director Jon Cohen, Edwards got 18 percent of the voters who consider the economy in poor or not-so-good shape compared with 12 percent among those more optimistic about the economy, and he got 19 percent among those who feel their own families are falling behind compared with 16 percent of those more confident about their situation. Similarly, Huckabee got 15 percent of those who think the economy is in bad shape, compared to 12 percent of those who think it's excellent or merely not so good. And he actually got less support among those whose own situation is declining or holding steady, 12 percent, than he did among those getting ahead, 12 percent. In Huckabee's case, he may be losing out to Rep. Ron Paul (R-Tex.), whose iconoclastic libertarian message seems to be appealing to the down-and-out part of his party -- he got 30 percent of those who think the economy is in poor condition.
Here's a chart of results that Cohen put together:
Democratic primary
Among the 38 percent of the electorate calling the economy the country's top issue: Clinton 44, Obama 35, Edwards 17.
State of national economy:
Excellent/good (14%)
Clinton 34
Obama 45
Edwards 12
Not so good (55%)
Clinton 37
Obama 40
Edwards 18
Poor (31%)
Clinton 44
Obama 31
Edwards 18
Family's financial situation:
Getting ahead (14%)
Clinton 31
Obama 48
Edwards 16
Holding steady (57%)
Clinton 38
Obama 39
Edwards 16
Falling behind (28%)
Clinton 43
Obama 33
Edwards 19
Republican Primary
Among the 31 percent of the electorate calling the economy the country's top issue: McCain 41, Romney 21, Huckabee 14, Paul 13. (Note: The GOP issue list included four issues, compared to three on the Democratic list, so the 31 percent and 38 percent are not directly comparable.)
State of national economy:
Excellent/good (49%)
McCain 33
Romney 41
Huckabee 12
Giuliani 13
Not so good (40%)
McCain 44
Romney 23
Huckabee 12
Poor (10%)
McCain 30
Romney 14
Huckabee 15
Paul 30
Family's financial situation:
Getting ahead (22%)
McCain 35
Romney 32
Huckabee 14
Holding steady (60%)
McCain 37
Romney 32
Huckabee 12
Giuliani 10
Falling behind (17%)
McCain 38
Romney 26
Huckabee 12
Paul 12
SOURCE: National Election Pool
Posted at 10:14 AM ET on Jan 11, 2008
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Posted by: politiciannc | January 14, 2008 11:21 AM
Would someone tell me why we should NOT elect Ron Paul? The rest with Richardson out and Kucinich low in the polls seem to be talking crazy talk about our military adventures in the Middle East. Additionally, no one else seems to understand the problems with the economy, inflation, and out of control deficit spending. One can not talk about tax cuts without talking about cutting spending. We have a $9 trillion debt that must be paid so we can afford Social Security and Medicare. The interest payments will eat us alive when we begin to fight inflation with higher Federal Reserve bank rates. And we must stop inflation or everyone's life savings will go down the tubes, along with our middle class, like what has happened to the middle class in most countries south of our border. And do not forget National Health Insurance, which is coming down the tracks right at us, unless Republicans begin to understand the seriousness of runaway inflation. And start educating the country. The Democrats will sure not fight inflation like Volcker and Reagan did!
Please vote Ron Paul and save the country from bankruptcy abroad and at home!
Posted by: RamseySt | January 11, 2008 1:45 PM
When the media covers only the horse race, it's not surprising that voters don't know whose message is strongest in which areas. How about some coverage of substance, about ALL the candidates, WashPost?
BTW, 50% greater support among people who list the economy poor is not a small shift.
Posted by: asahop | January 11, 2008 1:07 PM
Once again, the Post's political team asks us to redefine both "drawing" and "conclusions".
Posted by: zukermand | January 11, 2008 12:40 PM
The comments to this entry are closed.
When the British soldiers were shooting at us George Washington as a Commander in Chief was always on the Battle Front, on the line of fire, bullets were flying near his head, the sound of Cannons going off and dead soldiers all over the field.
A brave man George Washington was.
John McCain by his own words tells the world how he is going to lead our troops.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Wru8NRLdFE
You be the Judge.
John McCain for President!