The Trail: A Daily Diary of Campaign 2008

Currently Barack Obama holds a slight lead among delegates, 63-48, over Hillary Clinton. However, if Superdelegates are counted (and they will be at the convention and in every tally once it starts to be crunch time), Hillary holds the advantage, 257-181.

Here is how Super Tuesday is going to go down, mark my words on this.

California, Hillary 251, Obama 190; New York, Hillary 168, Obama 113; Illinois, Hillary 78, Obama 107; New Jersey, Hillary 72, Obama 55; Massachusetts, Hillary 76, Obama 50; Georgia, Hillary 50, Obama 53; Minnesota, Hillary 52, Obama 36; Missouri, Hillary 48, Obama 40; Tennessee, Hillary 52, Obama 35; Alabama, Hillary 31, Obama 29; Connecticut, Hillary 34, Obama 26; Colorado, Hillary 36, Obama 35; Arizona, Hillary 40, Obama 27; Arkansas, Hillary 28, Obama 19; Oklahoma, Hillary 31, Obama 16; Kansas, Hillary 22, Obama 19; New Mexico, Hillary 21, Obama 17; Utah, Hillary 18, Obama 11; Delaware, Hillary 13, Obama 10; Idaho, Hillary 12, Obama 11; North Dakota, Hillary 12, Obama 9; Alaska, Hillary 10, Obama 8.

This will give Hillary a total of 1203 delegates to Barack Obama's 979 (a lead of 224 delegates), and if their superdelegates that have ALREADY been designated were added to that the lead would then be 1412 to 1097. She will have won 20 of the 22 states that day, losing only Obama's home state of Illinois and the state of Georgia, which, like South Carolina has a HUGE African American community. She will have won 24 of the 28 states total, and will have effectively shown that while it is still mathematically possible for Obama to win, he would need to rout her in every remaining state to do so.

Come Wednesday morning, there's going to be a HUGE push for Obama to end his campaign and unify the Democratic Party. I know all the so-called experts aren't saying this, and I know Obama supporters are foolish enough to believe the BS the media is feeding them, but this is how it's going down, mark my words. The ONLY way Obama's getting in the White House January, 2009, is either if he's invited to the inaugural or is placed on the ticket by Hillary, which I hope she doesn't do as I don't think Obama's fit to shine my shoes, let alone be my president or vice-president.

Regardless, I do recognize that if she did put him on the ticket, the Democratic Party would win in a landslide so large it would make all others in history seem puny by comparison. And I wouldn't be able to vote for her, out of principle. Of course, since I live in New York, my lack of voting for her in that case wouldn't cause a ripple.

Oh, and even if she doesn't put him on the ticket, as I'm hoping she won't, he will still support her candidacy, will draw millions of voters to HER, and she will still win in a landslide. Electability is a completely irrelevant issue.

As a life-long liberal Democrat, my memory of the Clinton years is of a President who was impeached by the House of Representatives for lying under oath and for having sex with a 22 year old intern in the Oval Office while conducting official business on the phone. Moreover, the Democrats lost control of Congress under Clinton, and the National Democratic Party was left in great disarray which partially lead to Gore losing in 2000.

This is the Clinton legacy that Hillary is touting. If nominated, she will likely lose in November. We do not want another eight years of Neo-con Republican rule.

I dunno what kind of psychotropic substances they're slipping into the drinking water up in Staten Island, hotnuke, but you should bottle it and sell it, 'cause you're tripping pretty heavily with your figures there. Obama will take a majority of the delegates in at least 8 states at this point, including Delaware, Idaho and Alabama as well as Georgia and Illinois, and California, New Jersey and Connecticut are tightening up as we speak. (By the way, wasn't it great to see Maria Shriver join Michelle Obama, Caroline Kennedy and Oprah at UCLA to give Obama her surprise endorsement? Man, I loved that!) I hope you don't work in statistical analysis for a living, or you'll soon be out working a shoeshine stand yourself. Barring a major blowout in California due to high absentee voting that would skew heavily towrd Clinton, Obama should be slightly ahead in the overall delegate count Wednesday morning.

Whatmeregister, say what you want, but you're going to be whining and weeping come Wednesday morning. Your views are based on these PHONY polls...lol The same phony polls I'm sure you relied on in New Hampshire, when you thought you were going to sew up the nomination that DAY. Yours and your lowlife candidate's disappointment that day was precisely what sparked him and his supporters, advocates, and surrogates, including that fukking ape of a wife, to start playing the race card (while claiming victimhood).

Anyway, you'll be weeping and whining in two days, saying, "HOW COULD THIS HAPPEN? THE CLINTONS CHEATED; WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!"...LOL

Hillary's going down. Her husband has spewed enough racist garbage to fill the Klan's dumpsters for years to come, and people are on to him. We expect Republicans to be racist. But it's unacceptable from a Democratic former President who has always pretended that he liked black people. Likes them when it suits his purposes, but that's it.

Hillary's supporters are abandoning her campaign in droves. They're all over on the Obama side, the side of hope, the side of the future, the side of positive and collaborative ideas for the future.

Just look at Hillary's supporters, and how bizarre they are behaving. Hillary's going down, and they know it. NOW sending shreaking hysterical attacks out against the most progressive Democrat in the Senate, accusing him of being sexist because he endorsed Obama? Getting their surrogates to send out vicious libelous e-mails telling the world Obama is a Muslim, he's a terrorist.

And we're just beginning to have people wake up to the fact that Bill Clinton is as crooked as they come. The NYT's article last week about Bill peddling influence in Central Asia for massive bribes should make every American sick. People were outraged that Reagan made a speech in Japan for $2.0 million? Well Bill Clinton got $100 million for peddling his ass in Central Asia to help some mine owner. There's lots more to come.

Hillary's going down. People are sick of corruption. Oddly, Hillary is the male figure (loves war, adversarial, can't see any further than just being tough and trying to come up with clever put-downs). And Obama is taking the female role, the one we women have been promoting for years: sensitive, collaborative, cooperative, inclusive, united rather than divided, seeking the betterment of all instead of the destruction of many.

Hillary's going down. If the Clintons try to steal the nomination by bribing politicians (the "Super" delegates), the convention will be torn apart and 1968 will be just a footnote.

Did you see the crowd at UCLA? GirlPower, all grown up. Oprah, Michelle, Maria Shriver, Caroline Kennedy, telling all the people in California that they don't have to vote for Hillary, that we are free people, we can choose and make the better choice. United, together. Powerful. Hillary's going down.

"Hot Nuke"- maybe if you shared with us how you came up with this supendous prediction, there'd be a reason to take it seriously. While I put no stock in the polls now that we're this close to Super Tuesday (to call the situation 'fluid' is understatement), but I they have more credulity than what you've minded from your posterior.

Whomever is is monitoring this blog, the 7:20 entry by apparent Clinton supporter hotnuke2008 is clearly racist. Please delete.

It is ironic that the Washington establishment that HRC is being accused of being a part of is almost entirely behind BHO.

Folks have been dancing on her grave since Iowa and she is still alive. As Yogi Berra would say, "it ain't over 'til it's over."

hotnuke2008...

You gave away any power behind your words with your ignorant comments. Take a path of less hatred...

I agree with the commenter at 7:31 about the comment at 7:20 by "hotnuke2008". It should be removed as being offensive, using profanity (disguised in a spelling "error").

Thank you.

There's only one flaw in hotnuke2008's argument: superdelegates are unpledged and therefore free to change sides. So if Obama does as well on Tuesday as hotnuke2008 seems to think, then many of those superdelegates will swing behind Obama, because they'll see he's the one with momentum to take the remaining states. All these guys are political pros - they don't want to be on the losing side.

"ASK NOT WHAT YOUR PRESIDENT CAN DO FOR YOU, BUT WHAT YOU CAN DO FOR YR PRESIDENT." HRC

"ASK NOT WHAT YOUR PRESIDENT CAN DO FOR YOU, BUT WHAT YOU CAN DO WITH YOUR PRESIDENT."
OBAMA

TOGETHER WE CAN.
VOTE OBAMA.

Hotnuke2008, Wednesday when your figures are proven to be totally wrong, how will you post then?

I believe there are going to be some suprises on Super Duper Tuesday.

hotnuke is just an idiot who keeps posting here. Where did he get his numbers? the dude is doing his own polls...laughable.

Um... yeah. I thought racists were also usually sexist, but apparently that's not a perfect rule. Or maybe racism just trumps sexism. Nice to see that HRC's support includes the likes of those either racist or stupid enough to use such inappropriate language when referring to an African American woman.

That comment should be removed (7:20 - HotNuke) not only for the language, but also because hopefully the Post would not allow such disgusting sentiments in a forum on its site?

Free speech is one thing, but the Post is not obligated to print KKK manifestos, and they shouldn't be obligated to allow this post either.

And Hotnuke, I can't wait for an America where people like you have finally become completely marginalized. But... we are already on our way there, albeit slowly.

See you in the poor house next time I donate my old clothes! Hopefully I won't see the place you're headed after that.

hotnuke,

at first i just thought your prediction was insane. then you posted racist trash and i realized that you are also insane.

anywho...Obama is on a roll. Way too much momentum right now. HRC can push-poll until she's blue in the face but she's trapped.

Fineman said this would either be close or Obama would run away with it. looks like obama is running away with it.

HRC campaign reminds me of a basketball team that's lost its legs late in the game. they are hoping for the clock to wind down.

He's got to contrast with Hillary on something. Lots of folks are too dumb to see the differences between the two by themselves. He's got work to do to stay in the race beyond Tuesday.

http://www.political-buzz.com/

I was at the UCLA rally today which wasn't even Obama and there were about 9000 people there.

For those of you who don't live in CA, you have no idea the tidal wave that is building.

History is about to be made.

And this is just the beginning, folks.

Hotnuke has always been nothing more than a mass of raging blind hatred in search of a target. He's plainly an obscenity-spewing racist and deserving of nothing more than scorn and pity. I don't associate him with any other Hillary democrats here since it's obvious that his "democratic" self-identification is a product of geography rather than conviction--if he lived in Alabama he'd be a registered Republican with the same ig'nant redneck attitude.

But, on the positive side, at least as long as he's indoors sitting in front of his computer lashing out at the world, the kids in his neighborhood can play outside safely. LOL

Hey, everybody! Take a deep breath. Nobody knows how this will all turn out.

One thing is undeniable, though: the polling trend since SC is in Obama's favor. The national poll is essentially tied, he has passed Hillary in CT and closed within 1 in NJ and MO and 2 in AZ, and the last three polls from CA have him leading there.

Something is definitely happening out there and, as Carville said on MTP this morning, if Hillary loses CA - which could happen - it's going to be "very bad" for her. If that does happen, then watch the so-called "super-delegates" start lining up for Obama.

The Hillary camp is getting desperate. They're using dirty tricks like push-polling now...

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/02/breaking-news-p.html

What are these people talking about? They don't even know what kind of change they're talking about. Did Obama share some of his cocaine? Change can be made by someone who understands how to work within a system and who has proven, based on her record, that she can make significant change. Talk is just talk. Lots of young people in a stadium doesn't impact DC politics - it's just fun and trendy. These people are going to go back to their lives, and if Obama is elected, continue to be ashamed of their incompetent President as they were for the last 8 years. Clinton '08 - the candidate of substance.

Looks like HotNukes hot air is at it again. Hillary wins, the DEM party splits. She is a devisive person and cannot beat McCain or Romney. As for the Super Delegates it boils down to how many owe support to Clinton and how many owe support to Ted Kennedy. I believe the Kennedy clan still controls the DEM party, contrary to what the Clinton machine would like to believe. A brokered convention is where we are headed folks. The big question is will the DEM party stay with the old or follow the people and begin anew?