CA: Mailing it in Could Mean Waiting it Out
By Robert Barnes
The voting has already started in California. It's when the counting will end that has some folks nervous.
The Golden State has taken to the idea of voting by mail in such a big way that Contra Costa County Clerk Stephen Weil doesn't like to even call it absentee voting anymore. About a third of the state's nearly 15.7 million voters have requested such ballots, and state officials believe about half of the vote will be cast via absentee ballots.
The problem for those anxiously awaiting the outcome of Super Tuesday's biggest prize is that the ballots can be turned in right up to the time California polls close Tuesday night. As a result, Weil estimates that more than 1 million votes -- perhaps far more than that -- won't be counted election night.
That could be crucial in what appear to be tightening presidential races on both the Democratic and Republican side.
Those votes that came in prior to the weekend will be the first counted, Weir said. Election officials are allowed to start opening the ballots seven days before the election, and the counting will begin as soon as the polls close. But less than half the absentees had been returned by then.
The counting that begins Tuesday at 11 pm EST could go on for quite some time.
The delegate allocation will not be a simple affair either.
It's fairly straight-forward on the Republican side. The winner in each of the state's 53 congressional districts wins three delegates, and the statewide victor gets 11 "bonus" delegates.
But calculators are required for the Democrats. Each congressional district has been allocated three, four, five or six delegates, depending on the district's Democratic leanings in past presidential votes. Delegates are awarded proportionally to a candidate with a minimum of 15 percent support.
In districts in which there are an even number of delegates, a candidate who loses but keeps it close can still lay claim to half the delegates. But the candidate ahead in districts with an odd number of delegates will get more than the loser. In addition, 129 delegates will be awarded proportionally based on the statewide vote.
Having spent much of the past week in the state, the major candidates are elsewhere today, leaving it to surrogates to spread the word. Former President Bill Clinton crisscrossed the state, rallying support for Hillary Rodham Clinton at events like one at Santa Ana College. "Will California stick with her as you always have?" he implored.
Meanwhile, the major Republicans are heading back West.
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney added a Long Beach rally tonight to his itinerary, and Sen. John McCain announced plans to be in Los Angeles on Election Day before heading back to Arizona.
Posted at 8:38 PM ET on Feb 4, 2008
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Posted by: goodvibekid | February 5, 2008 3:36 PM
Bottom Line:
Like all of you. I know that health care is the most critical, and important issue facing the American people. Now, and in the coming elections. And like the vast majority of the American people, I want HR 676 (Medicare For All) passed into law NOW! "Single payer, Tax Supported, Not For Profit, True Universal Health Care" free for all as a right. Like every other developed country in the world has. See: http://www.house.gov/conyers/news_hr676.htm
"HR 676:
For church goers: less money to insur. companies and more to the church- lots more.
Srs on Medicare: save way over $100/wk. Because no more medigap, long term care & dental insur. needed. No more drug bills."
But if we the American people fail to bring enough pressure on our current politicians to get HR 676 passed into law before the elections. We will have to identify, and replace all the politicians standing in the way of passage of HR 676. And, I think the best first place to start is with the politicians that blocked the bipartisan SCHIP bills for the kids. Passed by congress twice.
But what about the President. It was Bush after all that blocked the bipartisan SCHIP bill passed by congress to assure more health coverage for Americas kids. So which of the presidential hopefuls do I think will be most supportive of implementing the demand of the majority of the American people to have HR 676 (Medicare For All) passed into law immediately!
We have some very fine presidential candidates who would make good presidents. But none of the top Presidential candidates directly support HR 676, the only true Universal Health Care plan. So I am supporting Hillary Clinton. She is the only top candidate that has ever actually fought for universal health care before.
I have enormous admiration, and respect for Hillary Clinton. She fought a pitched battle against overwhelming odds back in 1993. To prevent this disastrous health care crisis that is now devastating the American people, and America. She fought so hard for the American people that she risk almost completely destroying her husbands presidency. I haven't forgotten her heroic effort. If any Presidential hopeful for universal health care deserves my support, it's her.
Also, if we the American people fail to bring enough pressure on our government to give us HR 676 which we all so desperately need NOW! Then we will need the most skilled politician we can get on our side to broker the best health care plan for the American people that we can get. Though it will be less than we need, and less than we deserve. The politician I think to best do this is Hillary Clinton. The Clinton's are probably the most skilled politicians in American history.
The insurance industry, and medical industry that has been ripping you off, and killing you has given Hillary Clinton so much money because they fear her. They have also given Barack Obama so much money because they fear Hillary Clinton. They think they can manipulate Barack Obama against the best interest of the American people better than they can manipulate Hillary Clinton. There is no race issue with Hillary Clinton. The Clinton's are the poster family for how African Americans want white people to be towards African Americans.
As always, African Americans are suffering, and dieing in this health care crisis at a much higher rate than any other group in America. The last time there was any significant drop in the African American death rate was when Bill Clinton was president.
My fellow Americans, you are dieing needlessly at an astounding rate. In higher numbers than any other people in the developed world. Rich, and poor a like. Insured, and uninsured. Men, women, children, and babies. And we the American people must stop it. And fix it NOW! Keep Fighting!!! Never! give up hope. There are millions of lives at stake. Bless you all... You are doing great!
Posted by: JackSmith1 | February 4, 2008 11:02 PM
Clinton will win California. Obama has convinced many voters to vote for him in the last three weeks, but the people who voted early generally voted for Clinton. It will be too much for him to overcome.
Obama's campaign can only hope for it to be close enough so that he can get a good share of California's delegates.
Posted by: junkmail | February 4, 2008 10:17 PM
Early votes help Hillary, right? So how much of her built-in advantage will be swept away by Obama's momentum?
Posted by: parkerfl | February 4, 2008 10:06 PM
When has California "stuck with Hillary Clinton"? Isn't the first time she's on a ballot in the State?
Posted by: JakeD | February 4, 2008 9:26 PM
To put it more positively, the nation needs someone with sound, rather than ideologic, economic judgment, integrity, vision, and a philosophy of government that embraces, rather than divides, all Americans.
I agree with Romney that McCain in spite of his protests declined to endorse the surge or the concept of the U.S. remaining in Iraq, while Romney and Senator Lugar have always seen our commitment as potentially long term. Their language was completely different from McCain's who was hedging his bets when he thought the tide was turning against our presence in Iraq. And I see no evidence of principle or integrity on the part of McCain, who said what he needed to get elected in Arizonia and is doing the same now.
Romney was right about immigration. McCain pontificated but wouldn't even pay a firm using legal American labor, fairly revealing about his commitment to his words.
The American people might go for Romney because they sense authenticity. Right now, that's the Republican Party's only hope. And I'm not saying I support Romney. His future will depend upon his selection of running mate, for in that he will signal the country the direction he truly plans to head.
(I forgot to mention Thompson... he's another one taken down even in the Republican Party by his embrace of a social conservative agenda.)
Posted by: enzospice | February 4, 2008 9:11 PM
The comments to this entry are closed.
As a volunteer for the Ron Paul For President Campaign, I made 100's of calls to registered republicans and encountered a lot who voted early for Ron Paul. While the race for the nomination is within the grasp of Ron Paul, I do feel that it's a toss up race.
Understanding the delegate process is paramount to understanding how the nomination is won. For those who aren't clear on this I will shed some light...
In the Republican party the nomination is had by the candidate who secures 1191 delegate votes at the National convention. With 4 men running on the Republican ticket it is almost guaranteed we will see a brokered convention, the first in over 60 years. That means that most voters today are not aware how it works.
It is highly unlikely that the first ballots cast at the National convention will be enough for any of the candidates to win. When this happens the delegates are now free to vote their conscience in the remaining ballots cast until a nominee is selected.
So don't let the media spoon feed you dukey about who's going to win. We will have an idea how things look going into the convention, but it is truly going to be the beliefs of those individual delegates that decide the winner, not the primaries... and with the true level of support Ron Paul has that seems to be being censored by the biased media, there's actually a very good chance he could win it.
Keep in mind as well, that the likelihood of Huckabee dropping out is really high, and that would free his delegates to vote their conscience on the first ballot. It is estimated that we may see as many as 3, 4, or even 5 ballots cast before there is a winner.
I hope for the well-being of this Nation and all of its inhabitants that by the grace of God we come to find that we did our job getting enough Paul supporting delegates to the convention... because at this stage it doesn't matter who's been awarded what delegates, as it is about 99% sure they will not be bound to cast their votes for the candidate they were bound to cast their vote for on ballot one... it is almost assured that they will be free to vote their conscience on subsequent ballots, and I can't wait to see how it turns out. I feel privileged to be part of this history in the making.