Archive
The Pollster
The Impact of Wright
Public polling has revealed several potentially troubling trends for Barack Obama's campaign over the past few days.
Posted on April 29, 2008 at 03:43 PM ET | Comments (77)
The Pa. Expectations Game
It is zero hour in Pennsylvania, and another opportunity to test the mettle of pollsters taking last minute reads of Democratic primary voters. --Jon Cohen
Posted on April 22, 2008 at 10:54 AM ET | Comments (22)
Voter Views on McCain's Temperament
Cross-posted from Behind the Numbers.
Posted on April 21, 2008 at 02:35 PM ET | Comments (51)
Clinton Lead in Pa. Dwindles
Hillary Clinton's Pennsylvania lead has dwindled to six points, according to a new statewide survey of likely Democratic primary voters. --Jon Cohen
Posted on April 8, 2008 at 02:35 PM ET | Comments (306)
Clinton Keeps Her Pa. Lead
Hillary Clinton holds a 9-point lead in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll. But it is the survey's general election numbers from three key swing states that may do more to bolster the New York senator's campaign. --Jon Cohen
Posted on April 2, 2008 at 02:17 PM ET | Comments (201)
McCain Democrats? Putting a Survey in Historical Context
By Jon Cohen Democrats afraid their party will suffer from the extended primary battle point...
Posted on March 27, 2008 at 06:05 PM ET | Comments (15)
New Pennsylvania Poll Shows Slim Clinton Lead
A new poll shows Hillary Clinton hanging to a slim lead in Pennsylvania, highlighting the breadth of Barack Obama's newfound appeal and the challenges Clinton faces should the race for the Democratic nomination reach the Keystone State. --Jon Cohen
Posted on February 27, 2008 at 11:50 AM ET | Comments (98)
Independents? In Florida?
By Jon Cohen Independents helped lift John McCain to victory in Florida. Really. As widely...
Posted on January 31, 2008 at 05:33 PM ET | Comments (0)
Exit Polls: How McCain Won
Updated 11:20 p.m. By Jon Cohen and Jennifer Agiesta Network exit polls out of Florida...
Posted on January 29, 2008 at 07:00 PM ET | Comments (21)
Obama 2008 vs. Jackson 1988
Former Pres. Bill Clinton caused a stir this week by comparing Barack Obama's success in South Carolina to Jesse Jackson's in 1988 and 1984. But an analysis of the data shows that, while there are some similarities, Obama has already crossed racial divides in his presidential bid that Jackson never did.--Jon Cohen
Posted on January 28, 2008 at 01:14 PM ET | Comments (24)
Obama Landslide Despite Racial Split in S.C.
As expected, Democratic voters in today's South Carolina primary were largely split along racial lines, with Barack Obama picking up overwhelming support among African Americans and a more competitive, three-way race for white voters, according to the National Election Pool exit poll. --Jon Cohen and Jennifer Agiesta
Posted on January 26, 2008 at 08:24 PM ET | Comments (12)
New Racial Dynamic in S.C.
The racial divide has deepened in South Carolina, with Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton by a wide margin among African Americans, but badly trailing both Clinton and John Edwards among white voters. And underneath the chasm in vote preferences in the new McClatchy-MSNBC poll by Mason-Dixon, there are signs of other, potentially irreconcilable differences. --Jon Cohen
Posted on January 25, 2008 at 04:36 PM ET | Comments (16)
Can Giuliani Turn it Around?
Polls forecast a tough road to the nomination for Republican Rudy Giuliani.(Getty Images). By Jon...
Posted on January 23, 2008 at 05:54 PM ET | Comments (22)
Behind McCain's Win
Arizona Sen. John McCain won the South Carolina GOP primary, losing only the party's most conservative voters and doing significantly better among evangelicals than he did in Iowa. --Jon Cohen and Jennifer Agiesta
Posted on January 20, 2008 at 09:03 AM ET | Comments (8)
A Tale of Two Electorates
Arizona Sen. John McCain and former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee are in a close race for the top spot in South Carolina, with McCain winning moderate and liberal GOP voters and Huckabee excelling among religious conservatives, according to preliminary network exit poll data. --Jon Cohen and Jennifer Agiesta
Posted on January 19, 2008 at 08:10 PM ET | Comments (3)
Gender Gap Benefits Clinton
In her Nevada caucus win today, Hillary Rodham Clinton benefited from a sizable gender gap and big turnout from mainline Democrats. According to the network's entrance poll
Posted on January 19, 2008 at 04:48 PM ET | Comments (18)
Mormons, Party Regulars Fuel Romney Success
A quarter of GOP caucusgoers were Mormon, according to the network's poll, and they broke overwhelmingly for Romney, himself a Mormon.--Jon Cohen
Posted on January 19, 2008 at 02:03 PM ET | Comments (42)
Burned Once Before in the Granite State
By Jon Cohen "America's beleaguered pollsters know exactly how Dole felt in 1996 after losing...
Posted on January 12, 2008 at 10:54 AM ET | Comments (0)
The Invisible Primary Voter: Evangelical Democrats
Since nearly eight in 10 white evangelicals voted for President Bush in 2004, Democrats have been plowing thought, money and time into changing the story line. They have faith advisers, faith forums and faith strategies that show there is such a thing as a progressive evangelical. So imagine their annoyance when exit polls in Iowa and New Hampshire asked only Republican voters if they consider themselves "born-again" or evangelical. --Michelle Boorstein and Jon Cohen
Posted on January 10, 2008 at 05:29 PM ET | Comments (17)
What if the Polls Were Right?
By Jon Cohen Democratic Pollster Peter Hart has a contrarian view on the latest polling...
Posted on January 9, 2008 at 07:55 PM ET | Comments (28)
About Those Democratic Polls
Yesterday's Democratic result is sure to fuel debate among poll-watchers about the accuracy of polls in contests with African American candidates. --Jon Cohen
Posted on January 9, 2008 at 12:55 AM ET | Comments (50)
Numbers Shift in Advance of N.H. Primary
On the eve of the New Hampshire primary, a slew of new polls. Go figure. --Jon Cohen
Posted on January 7, 2008 at 07:59 PM ET | Comments (3)
Younger Iowans Were More Ideological, Survey Shows
A detailed look at what happened in Iowa.
Posted on January 7, 2008 at 02:32 PM ET | Comments (1)
Obama Takes the Lead in N.H.
Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) has jumped to a double-digit lead in New Hampshire with two days to go, neutralizing New York senator Hillary Rodham Clinton's onetime advantage among female voters, according to two state polls released today. --Jon Cohen
Posted on January 6, 2008 at 09:26 PM ET | Comments (229)
Clinton, Obama Tied in NH; McCain Leads GOP Field
The first CNN-University of New Hampshire-WMUR poll taken after the Iowa caucuses shows Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton still in a tight battle for the Democratic primary, while on the Republican side, Arizona Sen. John McCain has taken his first lead since April. McCain holds a narrow, six percentage point, lead over the GOP field, supported by 33 percent of likely primary voters in the new poll to 27 percent for former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney. --Jon Cohen
Posted on January 5, 2008 at 07:08 PM ET | Comments (48)
Change Trumps Experience in Iowa
The Iowa caucuses are typically low-turnout affairs that are notoriously hard to predict, but this year, pre-election polls accurately captured the underlying dynamics of both party's contests. Illinois Sen. Barack Obama appealed to a change-oriented Democratic electorate, while former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee won the GOP race in large by picking up significant support among evangelicals. --Jon Cohen and Jennifer Agiesta
Posted on January 3, 2008 at 11:07 PM ET | Comments (5)
About That Independent Turnout
Questions about the validity of entrance polls.
Posted on January 3, 2008 at 09:01 AM ET | Comments (7)
Obama, Huckabee Lead Register Poll
Among Democrats, Barack Obama holds a 7-point lead over Hillary Clinton and an 8-point advantage over John Edwards -- outside the margin of sampling error for the first time in this poll. On the GOP side, Mike Huckabee is up six points over Mitt Romney, 32 percent to 26 percent, with John McCain well back in third place at 13 percent. A month ago, Huckabee stood at 29 percent, Romney at 24 percent. --Jon Cohen
Posted on January 1, 2008 at 10:00 AM ET | Comments (70)
Iowa: Nearly 80,000 polled
When Iowans return home Thursday evening after the caucuses, they'll be greeted by an uncommon quiet: no pollsters or campaigns will be calling. --Jon Cohen
Posted on December 30, 2007 at 02:04 PM ET | Comments (7)
The Missing Oprah Bounce
More than eight in 10 Democrats said Oprah Winfrey's endorsement would not make any difference come primary day. --Jennifer Agiesta
Posted on December 11, 2007 at 06:22 PM ET | Comments (15)
War Top Issue Now, Could Shift By '08
While polls show voters are most concerned about the war in Iraq, previous election cycles indicate that the focus could shift by the time those voters cast their ballots.
Posted on September 12, 2007 at 12:53 PM ET | Comments (1)
In Line, But Out of Step With Public?
At a candidate forum at Howard University, Democrats decried a Supreme Court decision on...
Posted on August 16, 2007 at 03:55 PM ET | Comments (4)
