The Fix

That's the gap in former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's favorability numbers among self-described conservatives (60 percent) and moderates (23 percent), according to a new independent poll conducted in the politically critical state of Iowa.

The chasm between how Palin is perceived among the Republican base and independent voters is nothing new as national polling has shown that sort of split for some time. But, that the dichotomy exists in Iowa, the place where Palin would -- presumably -- make her foray into presidential politics in 2012, is worth noting.

The numbers, which come courtesy of Ann Selzer aka the pollster who nailed the results of the 2008 Iowa Democratic caucuses, suggest that Palin is a potentially potent force in the state's caucus system but could well lose the swing state if she emerged as the party's nominee.

Among only Republicans, Palin has a very solid 68 percent favorable rating -- the second highest of any potential 2012 GOPer. (Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, the Rodney Dangerfield of the Republican party, stood at 70 percent favorable in the poll.)

Those numbers got Palin a headline in the Des Moines Register that any candidate with national ambitions would covet ("State Republicans like what they see in Sarah Palin") and are a very nice set-up for Palin's visit to Sioux City on Dec. 6 to promote "Going Rogue".

But, other data points in the poll should be worrisome to establishment Republicans who see real opportunity to oust President Barack Obama in 2012.

Despite her strong favorable numbers among Republicans, just 37 percent of all Iowans see Palin in a favorable light while a whopping 55 percent regard her unfavorably. Of that 55 percent, a whopping 30 percent rate Palin "very" unfavorably -- well more than the 12 percent who rate her very favorably. That sort of strong opposition to the idea of Palin means that if she wound up as the party's nominee in 2012 there will be many Democrats and even some Independents who will show up simply to vote against her -- never a good thing.

And, the fact that just eight percent of Iowans don't have an opinion about Palin -- a stunningly low number for a politician who is still relatively new to the national stage -- suggests that the former Governor will struggle to change her image in any meaningful way if she does decide to run for president.

The numbers out of Iowa bear out the Palin conundrum facing the GOP: she is amazingly popular within the party base and amazingly polarizing -- not in a good way -- among everyone else.

Arkansas Democratic Gov. Mike Beebe has all the tools to be a star but he lacks national ambition. AP Photo/Danny Johnston

In a world filled with politicians whose ambitions far outstrip their talents, Arkansas Gov. Mike Beebe is the exact opposite.

Beebe is among the most popular politicians in the country with polls regularly showing more than seven in ten voters in the Razorback State approving of the job he had done since coming to office in 2006.

And yet, despite repeated urgings from state and national admirers, Beebe expresses no interest in following in the national footsteps of past Arkansas governors named Clinton and Huckabee.

"I'm not a great traveler," Beebe told the Fix in an interview as part of our "Rising" series that profiles politicians you don't know but should. He added that the Democratic Governors Association had approached him several times in recent years to take on more of a leadership role but he had resisted. "They just want more folks to volunteer for hard duties," joked Beebe about the DGA entreaties.

Beebe's path to popularity (if not national prominence) has been a slow one. He spent two decades in the Arkansas state Senate before running and winning a race for Arkansas Attorney General in 2002.

Four years later, he sought the governor's office against former Rep. Asa Hutchinson who was touted by national Republicans as a potential star. Beebe crushed Hutchinson 56 percent to 41 percent and has spent the next three years focused on, in his own words, trying to drag the state from its traditional place at the bottom of state rankings on things like education and heath care.

"It's hard to get really excited about being 40th in something," Beebe acknowledges but notes that the successes the state has had in recent years -- moving to 40th in terms of overall health from 50th a decade ago --- are "nothing short of miraculous." (Of course, Beebe's predecessor -- former Gov. Mike Huckabee -- deserves a piece of that success as well.)

Former Ambassador Tom Schieffer's (D) decision to leave the Texas governor's race leaves a gaping hole for an establishment candidate, a space many people expect Houston Mayor Bill White to fill.

Schieffer, the brother of "Face the Nation" host and all-around-great-guy Bob Schieffer is expected to leave the contest later today, according to a report in the Texas Tribune.

And, according to a source familiar with White's thinking, the Mayor, who is currently running for the not-yet-open seat held by Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R), will announce whether he will switch races as soon as tomorrow. The expectation is that he will make the switch although no one with intimate knowledge of White's thinking appears to be talking.

If White does run for governor, he gives Democrats a credible candidate who would be positioned to benefit from what is already a very nasty primary fight between Hutchison and Gov. Rick Perry. (The Perry-KBH race is the number one ranked contest on the Fix's Line of the best primaries in the country in 2010.)

Democrats, who have been decimated in the state over the past decade, have long seen the 2010 governor's race as their best chance to re-establish a foothold in Texas politics.

The state's growing Hispanic population -- and that group's strong move to the Democratic party in 2008 -- give the party reason to hope as does the fact that White is a known commodity in the state's largest (and most expensive) media market. White has also shown a capacity for raising money -- he ended September with more than $4 million in the bank, all of which could be transferred to a gubernatorial race.

Of course, Texas has become a Republican stronghold in recent years -- the party controls both Senate seats, 20 of the 32 House seats and every statewide office -- and either Perry or Hutchison would be favored against White in a general election.

With Hutchison delaying her resignation until after the March 2 primary (if at all), White may well see the governor's race as a more attractive option and make the leap. If he does, former state Comptroller John Sharp will be the almost-certain Democratic nominee if and when KBH steps aside -- a prospect, for the record, which we remain very skeptical about.

If White does make the switch he is rightly regarded as an "A" level candidate and something of a recruiting coup for the Democratic Governors Association.

Kansas Democratic Rep. Dennis Moore will leave the House in 2010, a decision that hands Republicans a golden opportunity for a pickup next year.

Brandon Naylor, communications director for Moore, confirmed the news, which was first reported by the Kansas City Star's Steve Kraske, and said that the Congressman would be releasing a statement on his decision later this morning.

Moore's decision is an interesting one given that he was being only lightly targeted by national Republicans after weathering a series of brutal battles earlier in the decade.

Regardless of the "why", Moore's departure makes his eastern Kansas seat a major Republican target next year. President Barack Obama narrowly won the seat with 51 percent in 2008 and then President George W. Bush carried it by 11 points in 2004.

Republicans, surprised by the announcement, were unsure of what the field would look like to replace Moore although the first name mentioned was former state Sen. Nick Jordan who took 40 percent of the vote against the incumbent in 2008. Jordan is seen as a unifying figure within a party that has seen battles between its moderates and conservative wings cost them the governorship, Moore's seat and several other races over the last decade.

It remains to be seen whether Moore's retirement is a harbinger of things to come for House Democrats or an isolated case.

To date, just eight House Democrats are retiring -- a low number that has been expected to insulate the party from massive seat losses next November.

If Moore is the first of a series of Democratic incumbents who decide to take a pass on running for re-election in what is shaping up to be a very tough environment, it will widen the playing field considerably and raise Republicans chances of winning a significant number of seats in the midterms.

1. President Obama meets with his Cabinet this afternoon at a critical time -- on both the domestic and foreign fronts -- for his administration. Obama won a victory over the weekend with the Senate's vote to bring his health care bill to the floor for debate but statements by Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) among others on the Sunday talks shows suggest that trouble lurks -- most notably over whether or not a public option will make the final version of the bill (if, of course, there is a final version of the bill). Internationally, Obama's decision on Afghanistan is expected any day -- make sure to read the Post's Mike Shear's terrific piece on the ever-shrinking calendar -- but it has become increasingly clear that the time the president has taken to make the decision has actually complicated things. Wrote the Post's Dan Balz in his Sunday Take: "The lengthy policy debate inside the administration has spun out of control as it nears its finish, with damaging leaks and counterleaks." Cabinet meetings have become more photo-op than serious policy discussion in recent years but the gathering of the Obama braintrust -- the first since Sept. 10 -- is sure to set off discussion of the series of challenges facing the administration in the coming months.

2. The headline out of Gallup's daily tracking poll Friday was that the president's job approval numbers had dipped below 50 percent. Context matters, however. First, as Gallup noted, Obama's numbers have fluctuated within a relatively small range this fall after dropping somewhat precipitously in July and August. Second, as we noted when we wrote about the Quinnipiac poll, which showed Obama at 48 percent, last week's polls are a snapshot in time and using them as predictive measures is a major mistake. Interestingly, the arc of Obama's job approval as president most closely mirrors that of Ronald Reagan who dropped under 50 percent just days before Obama -- albeit 28 years earlier. If Obama stays on the Reagan path, the 2010 midterms will be tough on House Democrats (Reagan's party lost 26 seats in the House in 1982) and a break-even year for Senate Democrats (Republicans picked up a single seat in 1982).

3. The New York Times's Frank Rich has penned an insightful column on former Alaska governor Sarah Palin that includes this critical observation: "Palin is far and away the most important brand in American politics after Barack Obama, and attention must be paid. Those who wishfully think her 15 minutes are up are deluding themselves." We couldn't agree more -- whether or not you agree with Palin, she is a prime mover in Republican politics and cannot be ignored by anyone hoping to understand where the party is and where it's going. While Rich is highly critical of Palin in the piece, he does get at the heart -- we think -- of her outsize role within the political world; at one point Rich calls Palin the "pit bull in the china shop of American politics" and adds that "she can do what she wants, on her own timeline, all the while raking in the big bucks she couldn't as a sitting governor." Rich is right and that scares the Republican establishment.

4. Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) continues to insist he will not run for president in 2012 even while giving speeches that sound very much like those of a national candidate. Daniels' latest came in an address to the state Republican Party in which he pledged loftily that the GOP must "be soldiers who think always of opportunity, not of reputation." Daniels also slammed the Obama administration: "The pose is over," he declared. "I don't know what color these dogs are, but friends, it ain't blue, I'll tell you that right now." Daniels, as we have written in this space, could well be an appealing national candidate for Republicans as he has spent the past five years running out the same sort of hope and change message with which President Obama captivated the country last year. But, despite that appealing profile, Daniels pledged during his 2008 gubernatorial campaign that he would not run for any other office and he seems to be sticking by it. Of course, minds can change in politics....

5. Oregon Rep. Peter DeFazio's (D) strident call for Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner to resign -- the only House Democrat to do so to date -- has the whiff of politics, according to some longtime political observers. DeFazio, who turned down recruitment efforts for the 2008 Senate race, continues to flirt with the possibility of running for governor next fall. Running as a populist could be DeFazio's way into a governor's race with several well known names led by former governor John Kitzhaber. Republicans lost their best candidate late last week when Rep. Greg Walden announced he was staying in Congress. Without Walden, Republicans may well cede the state to whomever Democrats nominate.

We chatted live on Friday with Fixistas from around the country about politics, the universe and everything.

Among the hot topics: more analysis of former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (if that's possible), a look at some of the best Senate races of 2010, and an update on the Fix's quest to become the "homeless man's Bill Simmons".

A few of our favorite questions are below. The full transcript is here. Have a great weekend and drink a gingerbread latte for us!

Gainesville, Va.: Hello Chris,

Thank you for taking my question. Do you think that Sarah Palin is sacrificing a Presidential run in 2012 for the sake of promoting her book and other self interests?

I get the feeling that she knows she doesn't have a snowball's chance in 2012 and this book and promotion are a vehicle for generating an income. She does have knack for taking advantage of the situation and milking it.

Why else would she write a book that clearly makes her look even more undesirable as a serious politician? I mean accusing Couric of badgering by asking her questions like what she reads? Good thing Katie did ask her "What is your favorite color?". This seems to be verse for Palinites and people who would buy the book just to read what else in in there. Thanks again.

Chris Cillizza: Ok, I am going to take one AND ONLY ONE question on the Palinator since I have written my fingers to the nubs about her this week.

I think that the book tour and all of the media interview -- although not one with the Fix! -- that Palin is doing at the moment are in pursuit of her financial interests and have little to do with political calculation.

Palin acknowledged when she resigned the governorship over the summer that she wanted and needed to make money and it seems to me that the way in which she has approached the book tour -- interviews with Oprah, Barbara Wawa and NO serious political reporters -- reveals that she wants to drive book sales first and foremost and worry about 2012 later.

I also think the score-settling element of the book -- against Couric, Steve Schmidt, Nicolle Wallace etc -- suggest that political considerations are not at the top of her mind currently.

Does that mean she won't or can't run in 2012. Nope. I got out of the Palin political prediction business a long time ago.

The Republican Governors Association held its annual meeting earlier this week in Austin, Texas, a gathering where -- for the first time in recent memory -- the GOP had something to celebrate: the twin victories of Govs.-elect Chris Christie (N.J.) and Bob McDonnell (Va.) earlier this month.

Of the gathering, the Post's Dan Balz wrote:

"Republican governors wrapped up a two-day pep rally on Thursday with an expression of confidence that the political winds have begun to shift in their direction, thanks to what they called a backlash among many voters against the policies of the Obama administration."

Jonathan Martin of Politico quoted Gov. Jim Douglas (Vt.), a sometime-ally of President Barack Obama, insisting that "the American people believe that the folks in Washington are overreaching, that the pendulum is swinging too far."

While these sorts of gatherings always take on the feel of a high school pep rally before the big football game -- no matter the broader political circumstances for the party -- it's clear that the victories of McDonnell and Christie coupled with the energetic (if unfocused) reaction of the party's base to the policies put in place by President Obama have given Republicans more reason for optimism today than at any time since the 2004 election.

(To be clear, that is a relatively low bar. Republicans went into the political wilderness in a major way following Bush's re-election as he grew increasingly less popular and it became increasingly more clear that the party was either unable or unwilling to break with the chief executive in any major way. Polls suggest that the Republican brand remains badly damaged in the eyes of the American public with most people still trusting Obama far more than Republicans in Congress to solve the major issues of the day.)

With 2010 right around the corner, there is significant movement in this month's Line as we seek to rank the ten Republicans with the most influence in the future direction of the party. This is not -- and should not be read as -- a list of who is most likely to get the GOP nod in 2012. It's still too early for that kind of handicapping.

As always, your thoughts are welcome in the comments section below. And, for MUCH more on the state of the GOP, check out the Post's Republican project.

To the Line!

10. Bobby Jindal: The Louisiana governor seems to be focused almost exclusively on his 2011 re-election bid and there seems to be consensus among smart Republican operatives that he will not be a candidate for president in 2012. But, he is the consensus favorite for the 2012 vice presidential pick -- no matter who is leading the ticket -- and Jindal is seen as a near-certain presidential candidate in 2016. Everyone in the party regards Jindal as a looming force and no one wants to be on the wrong side of him. That's influence. (Previous ranking: N/A)

9. John Cornyn: The Texas Senator and chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee will spend the next year in the limelight as his slate of candidates seek to start the GOP on the long road back to majority status. Cornyn deserves major kudos on the recruiting front; if he can manage to convince either North Dakota Gov. John Hoeven or former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani to run for the Senate, he could lay claim to one of the best classes in recent memory. (Previous ranking: 6)

8. Michael Steele: On one hand, Steele, the chairman of the Republican National Committee, deserves credit for making major financial investments in Virginia and New Jersey. On the other, he seems to have reverted to his form from earlier this year -- popping off in the media with impolitic statements that draw lots of negative press attention to him and the committee. Steele deserves a spot on this Line simply because of his prominence within the party and his control over the purse strings at the RNC. But, he would be ranked far higher if not for his tendency to say whatever is on his mind at any given moment. (Previous ranking: 7)

7. Bob McDonnell: Whether you are a Republican or a Democrat, it's hard to argue that McDonnell ran a picture-perfect campaign. From the very beginning he talked relentlessly about jobs while downplaying his social conservatism. The result? A massive, sweeping victory in a state where Democrats had won the last two governors races, hold both Senate seats and won in the 2008 presidential election. McDonnell -- along with pollster Glen Bolger and media consultant Doug McAuliffe -- laid out a blueprint this fall for any Republican seeking to win a swing seat in the Obama era. In doing so, McDonnell almost certainly guaranteed himself a place in the veep discussion in 2012. (Previous ranking: 10)

6. John Thune: The South Dakota Senator makes his debut on the Line thanks to a very positive column from conservative commenter David Brooks and increasing signs that Thune is working to raise his profile in advance of the 2012 race. As we wrote this week in the Fix, Thune is doing everything to put himself in position to make a real run at the Republican nomination if that's what he decides he wants to do. (Previous ranking: N/A)

1. Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour's (R) repeated refusal to say that Sarah Palin is "qualified" to be president of the United States during an interview Thursday night with "Hardball" host Chris Matthews is illustrative of the problems the former Alaskan governor can -- and likely will -- cause the party. Asked by Matthews whether Palin was qualified -- in the wake of a Washington Post/ABC poll that showed more than six in ten Americans didn't believe she was -- Barbour responded: "Well, constitutionally, she sure is." Despite repeated proddings from Matthews, Barbour would go no further. Why? There's undoubtedly some parochial political concerns involved since Barbour fancies himself a potential candidate in 2012 and doesn't want to be seen offering too fulsome of praise for a would-be rival. But, the broader point is that Barbour, as chairman of the Republican Governors Association and a past chairman of the Republican National Committee, is a card-carrying member of the GOP establishment and his unease with wrapping his arms fully around Palin is evidence of a general uncertainty from party leaders about how to deal with her. Palin is without doubt a political force but she is, as her resignation earlier this year proved, decidedly unpredictable. Barbour and other establishment leaders want to take advantage of the passion of Palin supporters but are still wary of bringing her entirely into the fold. It's a fascinating back and forth that will continue to play itself out as Palin gets more active in political races next year. (Also read: Why Stu Rothenberg is sick of Palin talk -- subscription only.)

2. New polling in Nebraska, Louisiana and Arkansas commissioned by Health Care for America Now (HCAN), a liberal interest group pushing President Obama's plan, and obtained by the Fix shows huge majorities of voters in all three states favor the bill being debated on the floor. Eighty-eight percent of likely 2010 Nebraska voters, 84 percent of likely Arkansas voters and 82 percent of likely voters in Louisiana told Democratic pollster John Anzalone that regardless of whether they supported the health care legislation, they believed it should get a full floor debate. (Those numbers include more than two-third support among Republican and independent voters.) The release of the data comes roughly 24 hours before the Senate will vote on doing just that with 60 votes needed to get it onto the floor. And, it's clearly meant to influence the votes of the three Democrats -- Sens. Ben Nelson (Neb.), Mary Landrieu (La.) and Blanche Lincoln (Ark.) -- who have publicly wavered on the vote. Lincoln seemed to signal that she would vote with Democrats to get the bill to the floor in an email sent to supporters Thursday. "Even if the Senate decides to open debate on this measure, there will be many days and weeks of efforts to improve it and I will look forward to your comments and observations," wrote Lincoln. Meanwhile on the House side, the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) is going up with ads -- with a total cost of $1 million -- in eight House districts represented by Democrats who voted for the health care bill. The ads comes just days after American United and the American Federation of State County and Municipal Employees launched similar commercials in eight districts -- and represent an attempt by liberal groups to answer the pounding these Members are taking from the 60 Plus Association and the Chamber of Commerce. The SEIU ads will run in Indiana's 2nd, 8th and 9th districts, Maine's 2nd, North Dakota's at-large seat, New Hampshire's 2nd and Virginia's 5th.

3. It's over (again) in New York's 23rd district where Rep. Bill Owens's (D) lead over Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman is beyond the number of uncounted absentee ballots, according to the Watertown Daily Times. The paper reports that Owens is now ahead by 3,105 votes with 3,072 uncounted. Hoffman has grown increasingly outspoken about the results of late, insisting that the election was stolen from him by conservative bogeyman ACORN and promising a challenge of the results. Hoffman is likely to be buoyed by a new Public Policy Polling, um, poll that shows a majority (52 percent) of Republicans nationally believe ACORN played a role in stealing the election for Owens. (Of course, PPP -- an auto-dialed survey -- also showed Hoffman beating Owens by 17 points in a poll released 48 hours before Owens won.) When all the shouting is done -- and there will be shouting -- Owens will still be the congressman from the 23rd. Republicans would better expend their energy in recruiting a serious challenger for Owens in 2010 rather than fighting yesterday's battle.

4. Texas Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) is up with her first ad of her primary challenge to Gov. Rick Perry, a 30-second commercial that seeks to explain to voters why -- despite past pledges to the contrary -- she isn't resigning her Senate seat. "I'm going to do everything I can to stop the government takeover of health care," Hutchison says in the ad. "And it's why I'm staying in the Senate through the primary, at risk to my political future." The aim of the ad, which will be running on broadcast and cable stations statewide, is two-fold: to put her decision in the broader "fighting for you" context and to differentiate her policy before politics approach from that of Perry. Hutchison and her team also know that Perry is going to slam the senator for her vote in favor of the TARP legislation last year and want to make sure that her work in Washington isn't an unalloyed negative for the campaign. (Perry quickly launched an ad of his own asserting that "Washington is broken" and painting himself as a problem solver.) Staying in the Senate and fighting against a "government takeover of health care" (as she says in the ad) is a good way to make Washington work for KBH in the context of a campaign.

5. The Democratic National Committee raked in $11.5 million in October, roughly $3 million for than the Republican National Committee, according to reports to be filed with the Federal Election Commission today. Both committees spent heavily in the last month on races in Virginia and New Jersey and, as a result, will show less money in the bank at the end of October than they did at the close of September; the DNC had $12.3 million on hand at the end of the last month while the RNC had $11.2 million. (Those numbers are mitigated somewhat for Republicans by the fact that the DNC carried $4.4 in debt while the RNC has no debt.) Both sides paint the numbers as a victory for their side. For Republicans, staying competitive with the DNC despite being out of the White House is a sign that their donor base is returning. For Democrats, the RNC's inability to use the energy in their base to drastically outraise the DNC bodes well for the 2010 midterms.

Is former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani weighing a Senate bid? Photo by Bonnie Jo Mount of the Washington Post

After months of relative quiet regarding the political future of former mayor Rudy Giuliani (R), the New York newspapers have exploded this afternoon with reports that not only has he decided not to run for governor in 2010 but that he plans to enter the Senate race against Kirsten Gillibrand instead.

Maria Comella, a spokeswoman for Giuliani, released a statement insisting that no decisions -- about the Senate or governors races -- have been made; "When Mayor Giuliani makes a decision about serving in public office, he will inform New Yorkers on his own," added Comella.

According to conversations with several Giuliani insiders, the Mayor has not made up his mind yet although a run for either governor or Senate is not likely. Interestingly, a Senate bid appears to be the more likely choice if Giuliani decides to get back into the political game, note the sources.

A Giuliani Senate candidacy would be news to most national Republicans who say they have heard or seen little in recent weeks to indicate that the mayor is actively considering a challenge to Gillibrand.

Of course, Giuliani's near-universal name recognition in the Empire State coupled with a vast national fundraising network built during his 2008 run for president make him far less dependent than a typical Senate challenger on entities like the National Republican Senatorial Committee and its ilk.

On its face, the Senate race is a more winnable race for Giuliani. Gillibrand was appointed to the seat by Gov. David Paterson (D) earlier this year and remains a somewhat unknown commodity statewide. The White House, however, has done much to strengthen Gillibrand's hand -- most notably getting Rep. Steve Israel to bow out of a primary challenge to her.

While Paterson is deeply unpopular and trails Giuliani by double digits in most general election polls, there is almost no political person -- of either party -- in the Empire State who believes that he will be the Democratic nominee for governor. That title is almost certain to fall to state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, who, although he has yet to give any signal of his interest in the race, holds a huge lead over Paterson and is regarded as near-lock next November as well given the Democratic lean of the state. Giuliani would also have to beat former Rep. Rick Lazio in a primary for governor, a doable but not simple task.

What remains to be seen is whether Giuliani, the consummate chief executive (for both good and ill), wants to become a member of the minority party in a chamber that proudly touts its reputation as the world's greatest deliberative body. Giuliani has already run for Senate once -- an abbreviated bid against Hillary Clinton in 2000 -- and those close to him say he misses the political game.

Still, the Senate seems an odd fit for someone with Giuliani's interests and approach to politics and governing. Our bet? Giuliani stays in the private sector, biding his time for a race that's a better fit.

That's the number of points separating Florida Gov. Charlie Crist and former state House Speaker Marco Rubio in their Republican primary fight for the seat of retiring Sen. Mel Martinez (R), according to anew survey conducted by Research 2000 for the liberal Daily Kos blog.

Crist leads Rubio 47 percent to 37 percent in the survey, a huge change from January when Crist held a wide 57 percent to 4 percent edge over Rubio (state Attorney General Bill McCollum took 11 percent) in a similar Research 2000 poll.

A Quinnipiac University poll released in late October showed a similarly rapid narrowing of Crist's margin from 29 points in August to just 15 last month.

That Rubio has made up so much ground without spending any real money on voter contact -- television or radio ads, direct mail etc. -- should be very worrisome to Crist as it seems to suggest considerable softness in his numbers. In other words, the more Republicans look closely at Crist, the less they like what they see.

Crist has struggled mightily over the past month or so to square some of the positions he has taken as governor -- particularly his support for President Barack Obama's economic stimulus package -- with the prospect of a serious primary challenge from his ideological right in the form of Rubio.

These numbers will almost certainly aggravate those problems for Crist while simultaneously handing even more momentum to Rubio who, by all reports, is raking in money hand over fist in recent weeks as he capitalizes on his newfound status as a conservative cause celebre.

While the race is clearly moving in the wrong direction for Crist, assuming all is lost for the governor is an overreaction.

"We are confident that as we start a dialogue with voters
about Charlie Crist's vision of less government and more freedom that he will take to Washington, and, as voters learn who the real Marco Rubio is, Charlie Crist will undoubtedly be the next U.S. Senator from Florida," said Crist communications director Andrea Saul.

Adam Smith, ace reporter for the St. Pete Times, penned a fascinating column offering Crist five pieces of advice on how to battle back against Rubio. Among them: "govern", "aggressively start questioning Rubio's record" and "Lay off the 'I'm more conservative' stuff, because nobody buys it."

Smith's most important piece of advice to Crist? "Show some principle." Crist's life in electoral politics reveals a desire to try to be everything to everybone. He has largely avoided taking on controversial fights for fear that they would impact his sky-high approval ratings. But, voters don't like politicians when they act like politicians and so the best thing Crist can do is decide what he believes in and talk about that relentlessly between now and the Aug. 24, 2010 primary.

Will he do it? The Kos numbers show that if Crist doesn't start making some changes soon, he is in real danger of being washed away by Rubio's momentum.