The Fix

A coalition of liberal interest groups is launching ads in 17 congressional districts over the July 4 weekend that thanks members of Congress for their vote in favor of President Obama's climate change legislation, a direct counter to a series of attacks on that same vote being sponsored by national Republicans.

Environmental Defense Fund, Americans United and Vote Vets are sponsoring the commercials, which will run in the following members' districts: Reps. Betsy Markey (Colo.), Allen Boyd (Fla.), Alan Grayson (Fla.), Suzanne Kosmas (Fla.), Baron Hill (Ind), Debbie Halvorson (Ill.), Ben Chandler (Ky.), Frank Kratovil (Md.), Gary Peters (Mich.), Mark Schauer (Mich.), Paul Hodes (N.H.), Dan Maffei (N.Y.), Mary Jo Kilroy (Ohio), Zack Space (Ohio), Tom Perriello (Va.), Gabrielle Giffords (Ariz.) and Steve Kagen (Wis.).

Here's a sample of the ads running in the districts above:

The release of these ads is evidence that the Democratic third party groups have grown increasingly well organized since President Obama took office roughly six months ago. The ability to funnel money to these groups and organize a coordinated message is a reflection of the stepped up coordination efforts being led by a handful of longtime Washington hands including Democratic consultant Erik Smith, who is with the group Common Purpose Project.

That's the number of days of the Fix July 4 vacation that starts today. (Ok, so it might not be the most important number in politics but it is sort of important to Fixistas, right?)

We still have a few posts up our sleeves -- the case against Richard Nixon's inclusion in the Fix Political Hall of Fame will come tomorrow, for example -- but, by and large, we will be off the grid, as the kids say.

That means no Line tomorrow (will you survive?) and no Morning Fix tomorrow or Monday.

The Fix will be fully operational again on Tuesday. Have a great fourth of July and try not to "Sanford it."

Is a Sarah Palin comeback in the works? Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

After enduring months of derision within Republican circles for her role as the party's 2008 vice presidential nominee and her uneven performance as a national figure this year, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin is experiencing something of a rebound among the D.C. chattering class in the 48 hours since the release of a very tough profile on her in Vanity Fair magazine.

In the wake of that piece -- a 9,800 word opus penned by Todd Purdum -- a number of operatives who worked closely with Palin during the 2008 campaign have reached out to the Fix to defend the governor.

"She's a fine person, with unique and unteachable political skills," said Mark Salter, a senior adviser to Sen. John McCain's (Ariz.) presidential bid who was deeply involved with the Palin pick. "I'm sure she has a future if she wants one."

Palin got a vote of confidence from Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele as well on Wednesday during an appearance on Fox & Friends.

"Sarah Palin will be a leader in this party," said Steele during an appearance Wednesday on "Morning Joe." "She has the ability to galvanize the base, and even folks outside the base. "And I think all the hindsight second guessing and back looking does nothing."

That sentiment -- boiled down to "enough is enough" -- seemed to be the prevalent opinion of Republicans in the aftermath of the Purdum piece, which contains a series of background quotes from former McCain-Palin operatives that suggest that the Alaska governor was fundamentally unfit for the job to which she aspired.

Jason Recher, who served as a senior adviser to Palin and her trip director for the general election and has remained supportive of the Alaska governor, told the Fix that he spent two and a half months traveling with Palin and "grew to like and respect her even more as did many of the folks on the plane." Reche added that the people attacking Palin should "stand up and prove them on the record or move on with their lives like Sarah Palin has."

To be sure, there are still plenty of Republicans involved in the 2008 campaign who roll their eyes when asked about Palin's readiness to be vice president or the possibility of her running in 2012 for the top job.

But, the glut of anti-Palin quotes and stories that have bounced about the Washington echo chamber for the better part of the last six months -- Is she coming to the congressional fundraising dinner? Why is she fighting with David Letterman? What is going on with her daughter -- seem to be having the cumulative effect of turning Palin into a sympathetic figure (at least at the moment) among the GOP operative class.

It's not uncommon for a series of negative stories -- no matter how much truth is contained therein -- to have a boomerang effect on the person at the center of the controversy.

One needs only look back as far as the impeachment of former President Bill Clinton to see that phenomenon at work. The wall to wall coverage of Clinton had the effect -- over time -- of convincing people that Clinton had been beaten up enough and turning public opinion to his side.

That is what appears to be happening at the moment for Palin. The issue is whether she can take advantage of the softening of operatives' attitude toward her to re-introduce herself to the political set in Washington.

Although Palin will almost certainly run for president as an outsider to Washington (if she runs at all), she will need advocates inside the Beltway to help her raise money and keep a lid on the background sniping that is part and parcel of any presidential bid.

Palin may -- finally -- be understanding that reality.

Fred Malek, who served as a national finance committee chair for McCain's presidential bid, said that he recently hosted a foreign policy lunch at Palin's request in which she mixed with the likes of former secretary of defense Frank Carlucci and former deputy secretary of state Strobe Talbott.

"She has been vastly underestimated as a result of one or two interviews," said Malek of Palin. "I have spent a lot of time around her and can state unequivocally she is smart, perceptive, curious, and absolutely on top of issues like energy which are pivotal to her role as Alaska's Governor. "

The resignation hum is growing in South Carolina as Gov. Mark Sanford tries to weather the storm of his own making. AP Photo by Steve Helber

That's the number of Republican state legislators in South Carolina who have gone on the record to call for Gov. Mark Sanford to step aside in the wake of his disappearance and a series of admissions of dalliances outside of his marriage.

In addition to the 19 members of the state legislature calling for his ouster, six newspapers -- the Greenville News, the Rock Hill Herald, the Aiken Standard, the Spartanburg Herald-Journal, the Orangeburg Times and Democrat and the Charlotte Observer -- have also opined that Sanford's time leading the state is up.

Even Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C) seems to have turned the corner on Sanford, telling Fox & Friends this morning that "a lot of us are talking to him behind the scenes in hopes that he'll make the right decision about what needs to be done."

What all of the above means is that critical mass is rapidly being reached for a Sanford resignation.

As we wrote yesterday, Sanford almost certainly would have survived until the end of his term had he not granted an "emotional" (kiss of political death) interview with the Associated Press.

What Sanford did in that interview was turn the debate from one that was beginning to center on Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer's readiness for the office -- a topic explored brilliantly by Phil "Bring the Ruckus" Rucker in today's Post -- back into a conversation about how a man who had misled his family and the people of South Carolina multiple times could remain in office.

Sanford's interview with the AP amounted to a political kamikaze mission that seems to suggest that the operative question now is not if he will resign but when he will resign.

Politics is amazing, ain't it?

The latest installment of Mouthpiece Theater -- a day late due to Post digital video problems but NEVER a dollar short -- for your viewing pleasure.

Bananas

An unlikely diplomat, President Richard Nixon saw his presidency defined by his foreign policy accomplishments. (STF/AFP/Getty Images)

Today begins the first of three weeks of analysis and debate over the three nominees -- Richard Nixon, Franklin Delano Roosevelt and Tip O'Neill -- for inclusion in the Fix Political Hall of Fame.

We will make a case for and a case against each man in the next 21 days and at the end of that process, we'll turn it over to Fixistas for a vote. The man with the most votes enters the HOF. The others have to, as Doris Kearns Goodwin says, wait 'till next year (or, in this case, next month).

Nixon is first up in this shortened holiday week -- a slight that the former president almost certainly would have noticed and groused about were he still alive.

Perseverance Personified: If part of the American ethos is rising, being knocked backward and rising again, then Nixon is the politician whose career best embodies it. Nixon was a fast riser -- winning a seat in Congress while he was in his early 30s and getting elected to the Senate soon after that. By 39, he was Dwight Eisenhower's running mate and spent most of his 40s in the White House as vice president. (He almost didn't make it when allegations of his ties to a group of wealthy businessmen threatened his place on the ticket in 1952; Nixon, characteristically, bounced back with the "Checkers" speech).

Adversity struck in earnest as Nixon lost to John F. Kennedy in the 1960 presidential race and two years later lost a run for governor of California -- a defeat punctuated by his angry and self-pitying post-election address in which he famously declared: "You won't have Nixon to kick around anymore because, gentlemen, this is my last press conference."

But, Nixon was far from done in politics; he had the itch and he couldn't resist scratching it despite himself. Nixon re-emerged as a national figure during the 1964 and 1966 campaigns and by 1968 he was not only running for president but (finally) winning his coveted office by beating Hubert Humphrey. Nixon's reelection romp four years later presaged his largest (and final) setback -- one that came to define his career.

But, a look at the totality of Nixon's political career shows a uniquely American story of aspiration, accomplishment, failure and (attempted) reclamation. Nixon is to politics as Darryl Strawberry, Dwight Gooden or even Michael Vick is to sports. We, as a country, love second chances and Nixon had more of them than any politician in modern memory.

Sen.-elect Al Franken. Photo by Eric Miller of Reuters

Senator-elect Al Franken's (D) victory over former senator Norm Coleman (R) in the Minnesota Senate race was among the closest (a 312 vote margin) and longest (it ended 238 days after election day) contests in modern political history.

How did Franken manage to wind up on top? In a race this close there are any numbers of things -- large and small -- that swayed the result. But, in conversations with strategists who were intimately involved in the campaign, the recount and the legal proceedings (whew!) a few key elements emerged.

• Legal Eagles: Marc Elias, a Democratic election attorney with Perkins Coie, was on the ground in Minnesota within days of the near-tie on election day. Elias spearheaded a series of legal victories in the early days of the recount that effectively defined the universe of votes that were counted and led to Franken going from behind on election night to ahead when they recount ended. By the time Ben Ginsberg, the Republicans' election lawyer par excellence, got deeply involved, it was already too late.

• An Organizational Mismatch: When Franken brought on Stephanie Shriock (and Eric Schultz) to manage the campaign in the summer of 2008, he (perhaps unknowingly) laid the groundwork for the victory he -- eventually -- scored on Tuesday. Shriock had guided Sen. Jon Tester's (D-Mont.) 2006 victory with a heavy emphasis on organization; she instituted that same mentality in Franken's campaign, building a large and aggressive machine that went into overdrive during the recount and simply outworked and outflanked the Coleman campaign. The edict from a state court that forced the two campaigns to go through each contested ballot and find an agreeable standard for counting played right into Franken's organizational strength.

• It Pays To Be Ahead: When the statewide recount ended, Franken led by 225 votes. As we wrote at the time (and many times after that), it's hard to overstate how important the fact that Franken was ahead was to setting public perception regarding the legal fight that ensued. Coleman was forced to be the aggressor legally, claiming that all sorts of ballots had been illegally counted (and not counted) while, through it all, the fact that Franken led by 225 votes hung over the proceedings. Voters tend to lose interest in politics quickly -- particularly after an election as nasty and long as this race was -- and that sort of fatigue played right into Franken's hands.

• Calm, Cool and Collected: Franken's problem throughout the race was, well, himself. A comedian, satirist and provocateur during the days before his Senate bid, Franken spent the entire campaign trying to prove to Minnesota voters that he was a serious person who wanted the job for all the right reasons. Franken's ad campaign did a solid job on that front (his two best featured his 4th grade teacher and his wife) even as Coleman was stripping off the bark with his own ad campaign. When the race ended in a tie, Franken did something very smart; he stayed out of the spotlight. He was rarely seen or heard and when he did pop into public view it was during an occasional visit to Washington when he was huddling with potential colleagues and getting briefed on issues by potential staffers -- in short, acting like a senator. He gave Republicans nothing to use to sow doubts about whether he was ready for the office to which he was headed. While Franken's personal discipline did little to effect the legal outcome, it played a critical part in slowly but surely securing public support behind the idea that not only had he won but that he was ready to be a senator.

• $$$: Recounts and six-month legal fights aren't cheap. Franken's national connections -- including his close ties to the affluent Hollywood community -- allowed him to collect more than $2 million from mid-November through the end of March. (Reports for the second fundraising quarter won't be filed with the Federal Election Commission until mid July.) Franken's willingness and ability to raise millions in support of the extended legal fight allowed him to keep on the best and brightest in terms of staff and run the sort of Rolls Royce campaign that kept him ahead throughout the seven plus months the race went into overtime.

Updated, 4:05 p.m. ET: Former senator Norm Coleman conceded to Democrat Al Franken, ending the Minnesota Senate race that has drawn on since November and clearing the way for Franken to become the 60th Democrat in the Senate.

"The Supreme Court has made its decision and I will abide by the results," Coleman told reporters at an afternoon press conference outside his home in St. Paul.

Original Post

The unanimous decision by the Minnesota Supreme Court today affirming a lower court's decision that Democrat Al Franken had won the state's Senate race is almost certainly the end of what has been a long and winding road.

The Court's decision, which was released just after 2 p.m., was long anticipated by both sides and in the days leading up to the ruling conventional wisdom among Republicans was that there was little appetite for former senator Norm Coleman to keep up his legal fight.

On Sunday, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) indicated he was inclined to sign the certificate of election for Franken if the state's Supreme Court ruled in favor of the Democrat.

If, as expected, this ruling forces a concession from Coleman, Senate Democrats will quickly move to seat Franken to bolster their numbers.

While Franken is technically the 60th democratic vote, Sens. Robert Byrd and Ted Kennedy are both in ill health and are not able to vote.

What the decision means for Coleman's political future is less clear.

Some have mentioned him running for the open governorship in 2010 but his extended legal fight has damaged him in the eyes of many voters -- making such a bid risky.

Updated, 3:05 p.m. ET: Sanford's very candid interview with the AP has the potential to derail what looked to be the increasing likelihood that he would hold on to his job.

The most problematic admission by Sanford in the interview is that he had strayed with other women but had not had sex with them.

Add that startling revelation to a number of odd quotes Sanford gave regarding his affair -- that his mistress "is his soul mate, but he will try to fall back in love with his wife" among others -- and you can see how Sanford has managed to pour fuel on a fire that appeared to be nearly out.

Not good.

In the aftermath of the interview, during which Sanford admitted meeting with his mistress on several occasions in New York, state attorney general Henry McMaster called for an investigation into the governor's trips.

Original Post

South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford's admission to the Associated Press today that he had five encounters with his Argentine mistress over the course of a single year including two overnight stays in New York isn't likely to fundamentally alter the resignation sweepstakes currently swirling around him.

Sanford had previously said that he had spent time with Maria Belen Chapur on four occasions over the past year and had not said that any of the encounters were in the United States.

While Sanford's latest admission is sure to keep the story churning in the state media and, to a lesser extent, the national media, it's hard to see how five meetings rather than four with his mistress will further imperil Sanford's chances of hanging on for his last 18 months in office.

For one, Sanford has acknowledged publicly that he weighed resigning in the immediate aftermath of the scandal but decided against it -- meaning that he isn't all that likely to re-weigh the possibility of resigning.

Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin is the subject of a lengthy profile in the August issue of Vanity Fair. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)

That's the number of words in Todd Purdum's opus on Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin in the August issue of Vanity Fair.

The piece is a massive examination of the enigma that is Palin, her political future and the 2012 presidential race. Writes Purdum succinctly: "Palin is at once the sexiest and the riskiest brand in the Republican Party."

Purdum's story is not -- at all -- favorable to the Alaska governor. It derides her "utter shortage of qualification" to be vice president, her "deep ignorance about most aspects of foreign and domestic policy" and calls her public life "an unholy amalgam of Desperate Housewives and Northern Exposure.

It details the lack of a relationship that Palin had with the staff she was given by John McCain once he chose her as vice president and features a scad of background quotes describing her as, among other things, a "whack job." (It's worth noting, however, that not a single former aide went on the record with Purdum -- a sign that Palin retains enough of a future in national politics that no ambitious operatives want to cross her.)

The best -- and most revealing -- section of Purdum's piece deals not with Palin's struggles on the national stage but rather the image of her back in Alaska.

That image was very much on Palin's mind throughout the 2008 campaign. In the days leading up to Palin's disastrous interview with CBS's Katie Couric, Purdum writes that the governor was more focused on filling out a questionnaire from the Alaska-based Frontiersman newspaper. Palin got so worried about her standing in the Last Frontier that McCain campaign manager Steve Schmidt decided to conduct a poll in the state to reassure Palin but when the poll was canceled due to other campaign needs, Palin was furious, according to Purdum.

Purdum concludes that Palin's experiences in Alaska government should have told McCain everything he needed to know about her (and why she would not be the campaign savior that the Arizona senator hoped she might be).