The Fix

That's the number of House Democrats voting against tonight's health care bill who represent districts carried by President Barack Obama during the 2008 election.

Of the eight, Obama's highest percentage came in Rep. Artur Davis' 7th district where he won 74 percent of the vote. Davis' vote is rightly understood through a political lens as, despite the overwhelming support for Obama in his district, he is running for governor of a conservative-leaning state next November and wants to safeguard against attacks from Republicans.

Six of the remaining seven members -- Reps. John Adler (N.J.), Brian Baird (Wash.), John Barrow (Ga.), Larry Kissell (N.C.), Scott Murphy (N.Y.) and Glenn Nye (Va.) -- represent districts where the President took 55 percent or less in 2008, making their decision to vote "no" strategically defensible

(The last Democratic member holding an Obama district to vote against the bill was Rep. Dennis Kucinich who, as we all know, is tough to predict.)

That means -- for you non-math majors out there -- that 31 of the 39 Democrats who voted against the bill represent seats won by Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) last fall.

And who says there are no politics in policy debates?!

Check out the full list of Democrats who voted "no" tonight after the jump.

San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, California Sen. Dianne Feinstein and state Attorney General Jerry Brown. AP Photos

The recent decision by San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom to drop his candidacy for governor of California left only state Attorney General Jerry Brown in the race for the Democratic nod, knocking one of the Fix's top 10 primaries off of our Line.

But Brown's primary primacy was short-lived as a story in Thursday's San Jose Mercury News said that California Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) was still mulling a run for governor and would make a decision in early 2010 based on how the candidates currently in the race propose to deal with the state's budget crisis.

Feinstein's waiting-and-watching approach is a sea change from the widely-held expectation in Democratic political circles that she had long ago decided against the race, preferring to stay in Washington and retain her post as chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee.

Polling has long suggested that if DiFi ran for governor, she would be a wide favorite in both the primary and general election against the likes of former eBay Ceo Meg Whitman, state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner or former Rep. Tom Campbell -- all of whom are seeking the Republican nod.

It seems amazing to us that Brown, who first served as governor of the Golden State in 1974, would get a free pass in the primary -- particularly when one considers that California's Democratic tendencies make whoever becomes that party's nominee a clear favorite next fall.

The no-go decisions by Newsom and Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa earlier this year may well have re-opened the door for a Feinstein candidacy. If she runs and if Brown stays in the race, the California Democratic gubernatorial primary won't be off the Line for long.

The number one ranked race on the Line is the race we believe represents the best intraparty contest in the country. (For more on what makes a great primary, check our last primary Line.)

As always, your own thoughts are welcome in the comments section below.

To the Line!

10. Arizona Senate (Republican primary): Sen. John McCain isn't going to lose this primary to Chris Simcox, one of the founders of the anti-immigration Minuteman Civil Defense Corps. McCain ended September with more than $5 million in the bank while Simcox showed less than $10,000 in the bank. Why does this race make the Line then? Because Simcox will almost certainly benefit from the anger among the conservative base of the GOP, a group that has never liked McCain -- even when he was the party's presidential nominee last November. If Simcox can get 40 percent of the vote (or higher) -- unlikely but not impossible -- it would do two things: remind people of the power of the most conservative element of the GOP and embarrass McCain. (Previous ranking: N/A)

9. Michigan Governor (R): The GOP primary in the Wolverine State is a rare instance where there are four credible candidates in the field, each of whom can make a legitimate case for why the can win. The race appears to be three-tiered at the moment: state Attorney General Mike Cox and Rep. Pete Hoesktra are in tier one, Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard is in tier two and wealthy businessman Rick Snyder occupies tier three. Snyder's personal money -- and how willing he is to spend it -- are the x-factors in the primary fight. With the state's economy struggling badly and the likely Democratic nominee -- Lt. Gov. John Cherry -- inspiring little confidence even within his own party, this looks like a terrific opportunity for whoever winds up as the Republican nominee. (Previous ranking: 10)

8. Kentucky Senate (R): Businessman Rand Paul's $1 million third quarter shows that the powerful Internet-based fundraising operation built by his father in the 2008 presidential campaign remains decidedly robust. And, the dynamic in the race -- Paul as outsider, Secretary of State Trey Grayson as party insider -- is sure to appeal to those conservative ideologues looking to re-create NY-23. (Worth noting: Grayson is not New York state Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava; he is a down-the-line conservative.) One other element of the race to keep an eye on: there is, according to smart Bluegrass operatives, growing dissatisfaction among grassroots GOP activists in the state with the political godfather role that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) has taken on over the years. Grayson is a McConnell protege and could become the focus of anti-McConnell sentiment in the party. (Previous ranking: N/A)

7. Illinois Senate (Democratic primary): The race to fill the seat vacated by President Barack Obama has been filled with a series of twists and turns -- exactly what one would expect from a Democratic primary fight in Illinois. State Treasurer Lexi Giannoulias has been in the race for the better part of the last year and remains the frontrunner. But, former Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman opened some eyes with his fundraising in the third quarter (nearly $900,000 raised including a $500,000 personal loan) and a poll conducted by Geoff Garin that showed the race very much up in the air. Giannoulias has countered with poll data of his own that shows him leading likely GOP nominee Mark Kirk and Hoffman falling short against Kirk. Add into the mix Chicago Urban League CEO Cheryle Jackson and you have a surprisingly intriguing primary in the works. (Previous ranking: N/A)

6. Nevada Senate (R): A former casino owner, the son of a legendary basketball coach, a controversial former state legislator and a wealthy banker walk into a primary....Not only is the backdrop of this race the always-interesting state of Nevada but whoever wins the GOP nod will immediately become a national figure as the man (or woman) tasked with trying to knock off Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. The co-frontrunners for the nod at the moment seem to be Sue Lowden (the casino owner and former chairwoman of the state party) and Danny Tarkanian (the son of longtime UNLV hoops coach Jerry Tarkanian). (Previous ranking: N/A)

The Fix took questions this morning on why Deeds lost, election hangovers, Crist vs. Rubio, DINOs and RINOs, and other assorted topics (Cillizza's new role on 'Vampire Diaries'?). Below is a taste of the conversation -- for the full dish, full of political meat and potatoes with the distinct Fix flavor, check out the full transcript of the discussion.

Fairfax, Va.: So, taking the lessons we've learn from NY-23 and looking forward, how much of a shot do you really think Rubio has going against Crist? Crist may not be the Republicans' Republican, but he's still a fairly popular governor, isn't he?

Chris Cillizza: I actually think that Rubio had already turned the primary into a real competition before NY-23.

The key moment for Rubio was when he reported raising more than $1 million in the third quarter, still well short of what Crist collected but enough to keep him within shouting distance of the governor. That financial showing proved that Rubio was in the race to stay and that he would have the money to make sure Republican primary voters knew they had an alternative to Crist.

Everything since then -- including NY-23 and Crist's unsuccessful attempts to walk back his support for the stimulus -- has been gravy.

My guess is that the Club for Growth gets involved for Rubio some time soon and, as they proved in NY-23, that means a significant financial windfall. Momentum is all on Rubio's side at the moment but Crist still has a 15-20 point lead which isn't insignificant.

Fairfax, Va.: Charlie Cook lists Boxer's seat as a "Lean Democrat." Stu Rothenberg lists her as a "Safe Democrat." Discuss.

Chris Cillizza: Terrific question.

I think I would rate the race somewhere in between Charlie and Stu.

Former HP exec Carly Fiorina is now officially in the race and while she got off to a VERY bumpy start in the runup to the campaign she should -- on paper -- present a semi-seriou challenge to Boxer.

Boxer should be safer than she is but moments like berating a witness at a Seate hearing for calling her "ma'am" rather than "Senator" tend not to sit well with some voters.

But, California if Cawlifornya and so Boxer starts with a clear edge.

Boston: From memory it seems the Dems have won almost every Congressional special election over the past few years. Is my memory correct? Any idea how many in a row and what is the longest special elect winning streak for either party?

Chris Cillizza: They have won the last five competitive special elections -- where both parties spent money -- over the last two years.

Mississippi's 1st, Louisiana's 6th and Illinois' 14th were all in 2008 and now New York's 20th and 23rd this year.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which oversees House races, deserves huge credit for that record as special elections are notoriously hard to predict with wacky turnout patterns and very low interest from voters.

1. The new ad being run in Florida by the Club for Growth should send shivers down Gov. Charlie Crist's (R) spine. The commercial features Crist saying "we know that it's important that we pass a stimulus package" and embracing President Obama at a rally earlier this year. (Highlighting "The Hug" seems to be an attempt by the Club to parallel the infamous George W. Bush-Joe Lieberman kiss from the Connecticut senator's 2006 primary campaign.) The Club has openly flirted with the prospect of endorsing former stater House speaker Marco Rubio (R) in the Senate race, a move that would significantly complicate Crist's path to the nomination given that the Club raised better than $400,000 for Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman's candidacy in the special election in the 23rd district of New York. Crist's awkward attempt to walk back his support for the stimulus bill over the last 24 hours has done little to satisfy angry fiscal conservatives and may have actually increased the likelihood that the Club gets involved.

2. Speaking of the Club, not only did they help Hoffman raise hundreds of thousands of dollars for his candidacy, they also spent another $550,000 on television ads and other communication with voters in the district, according to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission and Fix reporting. That spending was dwarfed by the two party committees, however, with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee dumping $1.1 million into the race and the National Republican Congressional Committee spending $879,000. The DCCC got their man in Rep.-elect Bill Owens, however, while the NRCC saw their candidate -- state Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava -- drop from the race in the last minutes and endorse Owens. Was that sound of a flushing toilet?

3. Ramesh Ponnuru has a thoughtful piece on what the election results from Tuesday mean for the Republican Party in the latest issue of Time. Ponnuru dismisses the chatter of a lasting divide between the ideological right and middle -- rightly noting that Scozzafava was not a moderate Republican but a liberal Republican -- and instead writes that the biggest problem facing the GOP has been that "voters have not thought Republicans of any stripe had answers to their most pressing concerns" and adding that "addressing those concerns, rather than repositioning itself along the ideological spectrum, is the party's main challenge." Ponnuru highlights the successes of Bob McDonnell (Va.) and Chris Christie (N.J.) as evidence that the charge that the GOP lacks empathy or answers is fading and cites the workmanlike, pragmatic approach taken by former governor Mitt Romney (Mass.) since his defeat in 2008 as a sign that the party will continue to move in the right -- as opposed to the Right -- direction. Time will tell whether Ponnuru's thesis is right as ideologically-focused primaries in places like Florida, Kentucky and Illinois have the potential to rip the scab off of the moderate vs. conservative fight. But his argument is well worth reading.

4. New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D) will be feted at a fundraiser in Washington later this month, an event sure to stoke speculation about whether he plans to run for governor of the Empire State in 2010. The Nov. 16 event will be co-hosted by lobbyists Tony Podesta, the brother of Obama transition director John Podesta, and Bill Titelman, a major Philadelphia-based donor and fundraiser for, among others, the Clintons. Other heavy hitters included on the invitation, a copy of which was obtained by the Fix, include Recording Industry Association of America head honcho Mitch Bainwol and Motion Picture Association of American Chairman Dan Glickman. Polling suggests that Cuomo, who ran and lost a Democratic primary for governor in 2002, would crush Gov. David Paterson in a 2010 primary and would cruise in a general election when matched against either former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani or former representative Rick Lazio. Cuomo, perhaps wary of appearing to push Paterson out, has stayed silent on the potential race and has ordered those in his political orbit to do the same. The White House has been more vocal with political director Patrick Gaspard meeting with Paterson earlier this fall to urge him to reconsider a bid for a full term.

5. Paterson, seemingly unbowed by the criticism, is launching his first two ads of the 2010 campaign today. The commercials, which were produced by Steve Murphy and Mark Putnam, each acknowledge the problems Paterson has run into since taking over for disgraced Gov. Elliot Spitzer (D). In one, Paterson, speaking to the camera, says: "Some say I shouldn't be running for governor" before framing that sentiment against other challenges he has conquered -- fighting unions, closing the budget deficit etc. The second ad, a biography spot, notes that as governor Paterson has learned, he "made mistakes." The overarching theme of both ads is that Paterson has made decision with the people of the state in mind, not his own political calculus. The ads are rightly understood as an attempt by Paterson to punch up his numbers and, in the process, convince the White House, Cuomo and other New York Democrats that he can win and should be allowed to run.

After hours of tabulations and calculations, we are ready to declare a victor in the Fix's election prediction contest.

Our work was made somewhat easier by the fact that only a few predictors managed to get all three winners -- Chris Christie, Bob McDonnell and Bill Owens --- right.

Before we unveil the winner, let's review the results.

New Jersey Governor
Chris Christie (R) 48.7 percent
Jon Corzine (D) 44.6 percent
Chris Daggett (I) 5.8 percent

Virginia Governor
Bob McDonnell (R) 58.7 percent
Creigh Deeds (D) 41.3 percent

New York 23
Bill Owens (D) 49 percent
Doug Hoffman (C) 45.9 percent
Dede Scozzafava (R) 5 percent

And the winner is......"jcw_colby" who not only called all three winners right, but also missed the exact percentages in them by just 12 points combined.

To the winner goes the official Fix t-shirt. If you are "jcw_colby" make sure to send me an email at chris DOT cillizza AT washingtonpost DOT com with your mailing address and preferred size.

Thanks to everyone who participated. And, with 2010 nearly upon us, there will be LOTS more t-shirt winning opportunities in the months to come.

That's the percentage of adults who believe former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) is qualified to be president as opposed to 36 percent who believe he is not in a new national poll from Gallup.

Huckabee's numbers on the "qualified" question were matched only by fellow former Gov. Mitt Romney (Mass.) with 49 percent qualified/39 percent not qualified rating. Other potential 2012 candidates like former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (44/46) and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (31/62) fared worse on the question.

On several other numbers in the Gallup data, Huckabee also shows surprising strength. Roughly seven in ten Republicans say they would seriously consider supporting the former Arkansas governor if he ran for president (the highest of any potential candidate) while 40 percent of adults and independents said the same (tied with Romney for the highest in each group).

What these numbers seem to point to is that there is a significant disconnect between how Huckabee is perceived within the Beltway and how he is regarded outside of it.

Most professional political strategists believe that Huckabee's rise in 2008 was based entirely on the fact that the other major candidates ignored him. When attention focused on him in Iowa he pulled the memorable act of calling a press conference to preview a negative ad only to decide that he wouldn't run it but would show it to the gathered reporters anyway. (We still can't believe that happened.)

Moments like that coupled with Huckabee's inability to build on his Iowa victory or grow his base of support beyond social conservatives has led most of the Republican chattering class to write him off despite polling that shows him solidly in the first-tier of candidates along with Romney and Palin.

But, it's clear that Huckabee's 2008 race had a far different impact on the average American. Huckabee's run for president seems not only have left most Americans with a generally positive feeling about the former governor but also changed the perception of him from something of an entertaining oddity into someone who could be president one day.

It's a similar phenomenon to what former Sen. John Edwards (D-N.C.) experience between 2004 when he was the fresh-faced upstart to 2008 when he was taken far more seriously by voters and the political press.

While Huckabee clearly enjoys the good will of the American public at the moment, there still seems to be little political infrastructure in place to transform that likability into votes.

Unlike people like Romney and Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, Huckabee has no real political team to advise him on how to turn his native appeal into something more than that. And, he appears to have no interest in building that sort of team.

While a candidate who listens solely to his or her advisers is a recipe for disaster, a candidate trying to win the highest office in the land who serves as his own political strategist isn't much better.

Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty struggled this week. Photo by David McNew/Getty Images

Minnesota Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty, after making a series of smart strategic moves over the past few months in advance of an expected run for president in 2012, has struggled on the national stage in the past week.

First, Pawlenty waded into a special election in Upstate New York on behalf of Conservative party nominee Doug Hoffman -- a move that came directly on the heels of former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's decision to endorse Hoffman over state Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava (R).

"We cannot send more politicians to Washington who wear the Republican jersey on the campaign trail, but then votes like Democrats in Congress on issues like card check and taxes," Pawlenty said in a statement announcing his decision.

Then, in an appearance on MSNBC's "Morning Joe" on Monday, Pawlenty seemed to make an unforced error by calling into question whether Maine Sen. Olympia Snowe (R) truly belonged within the Republican party.

"If Olympia Snowe disagrees with us on one or two things there's room for her of course," said Pawlenty. "But if she disagrees on everything then that's a problem."

In retrospect, neither move was a smart one from a strategic point of view. Hoffman fell short in the special election and Pawlenty had to reach out to Snowe in the wake of his comments to make clear that his belief was that the party was a big tent rather than a small one.

Pawlenty detractors are sure to see these two incidents as evidence of a transparent attempt to tack to his ideological right in advance of a presidential primary process that is dominated by conservative activists.

Defenders of the governor insist that his motives had little to do with 2012. In the case of New York's 23rd, he felt compelled to get involved once he became aware of the selection process -- a group of 11 county chairs picked the nominee -- and Scozzafava's support for the Employee Free Choice Act while with Snowe it was less premeditated attempt to appease the right than simple mistake by a candidate somewhat new to the national stage.

And, they add, Pawlenty, as vice chairman of the Republican Governors Association, deserves some credit for the victories in Virginia and New Jersey this week as well as the Minnesota kickoff of his Freedom First PAC last night.

Fair enough.

But, regardless of why Pawlenty did what he did, his actions over the last week reveal how difficult and fraught with peril the national political scene is for candidates who are new to it.

Running for president is not easy. Let's not forget that President Barack Obama was a unsteady and, at times, uninspiring, candidate on the stump and a long-winded debater when he entered the 2008 presidential races.

Pawlenty still has more than two years to grow into the role he is running for. And, now is the time to make mistakes -- when only a few super-nerdy political junkies (yours truly very much included) and a handful of party activists are paying close attention.

Still, Pawlenty's past week shows why candidates who have run before tend to do better the second time around -- particularly on the Republican side.

The American Future Fund, an Iowa-based conservative interest group, will launch ads tomorrow that seek to link the Obama Administration's handling of the H1N1 flu with broader questions about the viability of a public option being included in a health care overhaul.

The ad begins by noting that in July the Obama Administration promised 120 million H1N1 vaccines would be available by October but only 27 million actually were ready at that time. "Children, pregnant women, seniors line up for nothing," says the ad's narrator before adding that the government had planned to give vaccines to prisoners at Guantanamo Bay. (The White House on Thursday denied talk that Gitmo prisoners were being vaccinated before the general public.)

"If the government can't run a flu program can we trust them to run America's entire health care system?" asks the narrator at the ad's conclusion.

The ad, which will run on national cable as well as on broadcast television during the Sunday political talk shows, is costing American Future Fund $450,000 although the group may put more money behind it in the coming days, according to a source familiar with the ad buy.

As we have written before, how the Obama Administration handles concerns about H1N1 -- and, as importantly, how the public perceives the actions the government takes and doesn't take -- could have real political consequences.

President Obama was elected, at least in part, on his pledge to turn the page from the seeming incompetence of the Bush Administration when it came to delivering the basic goods and services that people expect from the government.

The H1N1 virus -- and the fears it has evoked -- marks the first major test of how the Obama Administration will do things differently from its predecessor.

Fear (and doubt) are powerful political motivators, and ads like this one are hoping to take the concerns people have about H1N1 and port it over to broader concerns about the government taking an even larger role in health care.

Couple those doubts with the Tuesday's election defeats for Democrats -- and the fleeing of independents from their party standard -- and it's easy to see that the health care overhaul isn't quite a done deal yet.

1. The news that Illinois Rep. Mark Kirk (R) is actively seeking the backing of former Alaska governor Sarah Palin in his Senate primary race is the latest evidence of the power the 2008 vice presidential nominee carries -- thanks to the fact that she has become the voice of the angry right. The rumor that Palin is considering weighing in on a race is enough to set a candidate on edge; witness the nervousness of Gov. Charlie Crist (R-Fla.) at simply the whisper that Palin was likely to endorsed former state House speaker Marco Rubio in the Florida Senate primary. (It's not happening, according to Palin spokeswoman Meg Stapleton, who says an it's too early for an endorsement of either Rubio or Crist.) Palin is, by all accounts, focused heavily on her book, which hits shelves on Nov. 17, and isn't jonesing to throw herself into a series of primary fights any time soon.

2. National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn's (Texas) much-publicized comment Wednesday that his organization won't be financially involved in any of the party's contested primaries is, in truth, less than it seems at first glance. For people like Kirk, Gov. Charlie Crist (Fla.), former state attorney general Kelly Ayotte (N.H.) and Secretary of State Trey Grayson (Ky.) -- all of whom have received tacit or overt support from the NRSC -- money won't be the reason they win or lose their respective primaries. In fact, the involvement of the NRSC is far more potentially problematic than its decision to hold its money out of primary fight; Senate Democrats have used the NRSC's support of Ayotte to gin up conservative opposition to her in the Granite State. (And, don't forget that the NRSC hasn't been involved financially in many primary races in recent years; the only two that jump to mind are Pennsylvania's Senate race in 2004 -- for Arlen Specter! -- and the Rhode Island Senate race in 2006.)

3. Do Democrats sense opportunity in the Florida Senate race? While the attention of the national political world is focused on the Crist-Rubio tussle on the Republican side, a number of Democratic bigs are helping Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) raise cash. Former president Bill Clinton is doing his fifth(!) fundraiser for Meek on Dec. 1 in New York City and earlier this week Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (Ill.) helped Meek collect cash in Chicago. And, the Goreacle -- a.k.a. Al Gore for Fix novices -- will be at the Westin in Ft. Lauderdale on Nov. 14 to collect cash for Meek. Polling suggests Crist would be a heavy favorite against Meek but that the contest between Meek and Rubio would be much closer. Even if Meek doesn't win, if he can make national Republicans have to spend money in the Sunshine State Democrats will count it as a victory.

4. Need/want more winners and losers from the blowout in Virginia on Tuesday? Ryan Nobles, one of the Fix's best state-based political reporters, offers his take. A few more from the Fix vault: Winner: political consultant Barbara Comstock (R) who was the only GOPer to knock off a Democratic incumbent inside the Beltway . . . Loser: Sen. Jim Webb (D) who is up for reelection in 2012 and faces a re-energized Republican Party with many names jockeying for the top few slots. Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling's (R) decision to step aside in favor of Gov.-elect Bob McDonnell this year means he almost certainly will go for governor in 2013. State Attorney General-elect Ken Cuccinelli (R) has said he wants to serve several terms as top cop but the recent history of Republicans in that job suggests he might reconsider. And then, of course, there is former senator and governor George Allen who may well be looking for a way back into the politics game. All three men won't run for governor and if any of the three decides to take on Webb it could be a tough slog for the Democrat.

5. Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer (R) plans to announce she will seek a full-term in 2010, according to the East Valley Tribune, a decision that virtually ensures she will be near the top of Democrats' target lists in 2010. Brewer, the secretary of state who became governor when Janet Napolitano (D) became the head of the Department of Homeland Security in the Obama administration, has struggled to date as she seeks to balance the state's budget. The Democratic establishment has lined up behind state Attorney General Terry Goddard and polling -- albeit auto-dialed surveys -- shows him with a clear lead over the Republican incumbent.

That's the percentage of the Virginia electorate that identified themselves as conservatives, the highest number among that ideological group in the Commonwealth since 1994.

And, not only did conservatives comprise an extremely large segment of the Virginia electorate, they also cast their ballots for Republicans at a historically high rate; 91 percent of self-identifying conservatives voted GOP while just nine percent cast their vote for Democrats.

(Compare that to 2008 when conservatives were one in every three voters and roughly one if five -- 18 percent -- voted Democrat and you see the considerable change in that segment of the electorate in just one year's time. A hat tip, as always, to Post polling director Jon "JC" Cohen for digging into the data.)

Those twin figures are clear evidence that the Republican party base is clearly energized and polarized -- a worrisome sign for Democrats heading into a midterm election.

Midterms are traditionally far lower turnout affairs than presidential year election and, as such, wind up being a battle between the two parties' bases. When one side is significantly more energized than the other then, major swings in seats happen; witness Democrats widespread gains in the House and Senate in 2006 when Democratic base voters turned out in droves to signal their unhappiness with President George W. Bush.

That same phenomenon now appears to be happening for the Republican base in regards President Barack Obama. As has been shown in tea parties and town halls earlier this year, the most conservative element of the GOP is mad as hell about the expansion of government under Obama and they aren't going to take it anymore.

What remains to be seen is whether the Republican establishment can direct the intensity/anger of their base in positive directions. The unwillingness of the base to accept the candidacy of state Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava (R) in Upstate New York almost certainly cost the party a seat it should have won.

If that scenario plays itself out in future contests -- somewhat unlikely due to the unique ballot and party system in New York -- the energy of the base won't translate into the sort of Republican gains it should in a midterm election.