Chris Cillizza's Politics Blog -- The Fix

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Posted at 10:35 AM ET, 07/19/2008

Who Won the Week?

The past week in the presidential race was shaping up to be the quietest in recent memory until last night at 7:41 pm.

That's when John McCain's campaign sent out a statement from former Texas senator Phil Gramm in which he formally resigned his position as a co-chair of the effort. Gramm's resignation came nine days after he told the Washington Times that America was only in a "mental recession" and that the country was devolving into a "nation of whiners."

Gramm's resignation is an obvious attempt by McCain's campaign to put his comments behind them but it won't be that easy. Witness the statement put out by Barack Obama's campaign spokesman Hari Sevugan late last night:

"The question for John McCain isn't whether Phil Gramm will continue as chairman of his campaign, but whether he will continue to keep the economic plan that Gramm authored and that represents a continuation of the polices that have failed American families for the last eight years."

In other words, this ain't going away.

Following the scramble set off by Gramm's departure, another e-mail arrived in The Fix inbox at 3:24 a.m. from Obama spokesman Robert Gibbs. "At approximately 3:15 AM Eastern/2:15 AM Central, I received a phone call telling me that Senator Obama had landed at the airport in Kabul, Afghanistan," it read. "Since leaving Washington on Thursday, Senator Obama had stopped and visited troops in Kuwait."

That email signals the start of Obama's weeklong, whirlwind tour of the Middle East and Europe -- a trip that has long been anticipated and will receive the sort of saturation coverage most candidates can only dream about. (More on Obama's trip in our "FixCam Week in Preview" on Monday.)

So, who won the past week in politics? As always, we are looking for concise, creative and reasoned takes -- offered in the comment section below. Since everything this week has been late-starting (including our "Who Won the Week" competition which we usually start on Fridays), we'll give Fixistas until Sunday at 5 p.m. to submit their picks. The winner -- or winners -- scores an official Fix T-shirt.

Go to it!

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Posted at 08:07 PM ET, 07/18/2008

Gramm Steps Aside

Add former Texas Sen. Phil Gramm's name to an ignominious list -- Samantha Power, Billy Shaheen, Geraldine Ferraro to name just a few -- of campaign surrogates forced to step aside after making an impolitic comment.

John McCain's campaign just released the following statement from Gramm:

"It is clear to me that Democrats want to attack me rather than debate Senator McCain on important economic issues facing the country. That kind of distraction hurts not only Senator McCain's ability to present concrete programs to deal with the country's problems, it hurts the country. To end this distraction and get on with the real debate, I hereby step down as Co-Chair of the McCain Campaign and join the growing number of rank-and-file McCain supporters."

Gramm's resignation as co-chair comes nine days after Gramm told the Washington Times that the country was in a "mental recession" and went on to describe the United States as a "nation of whiners."

Democrats immediately seized on the comments as evidence that McCain and his campaign were out of touch with the average voter and weren't likely to let the issue go any time soon.

A few quick thoughts:

* Gramm's resignation is the inevitable byproduct of the modern political game best described by John Harris and Mark Halperin in "The Way to Win" as the "freak show." Once Gramm's comments made the cable television rounds for a few days, it was something close to inevitable that he would resign.

* It's a near-certainty that Democrats won't give up on the issue. The reality is that Gramm was one of McCain's closest confidantes when it came to the economy and simply because the former Texas Senator is no longer affiliated with the campaign does not mean Democrats won't remind voters of his comments in the fall.

* The position of Treasury Secretary in a McCain Administration is now WIDE open.

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Posted at 02:15 PM ET, 07/18/2008

Friday Veepstakes Line: Stark Choices

As Barack Obama and John McCain enter the final stretch in selecting their respective running mates, each man is faced with a stark choice.

For Obama, that choice is between change and experience. Does Obama opt for a vice president who reinforces his fresh-faced appeal (Govs. Tim Kaine of Virginia or Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas) or does he go for a more known commodity within the party who has the experience he lacks (Sens. Evan Bayh of Indiana and Jack Reed of Rhode Island)? (Make sure to check out the Post story by Shailagh Murray and The Fix in which we delve into Obama's decision-making process.)

Friday Line

McCain's choice is whether to throw a "short pass" or a "Hail Mary."

The short pass candidates are people that McCain is personally close to or would fit an obvious need for him. Choosing a "short pass" candidate would be a signal that McCain believes he can win this race without fundamentally altering its current dynamic. Among the "short pass" names are: Govs. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota and Charlie Crist of Florida, former governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, former Rep. Rob Portman of Ohio and South Dakota Sen. John Thune.

The "Hail Mary" option would suggest that McCain believes that he has to shake up the race with an entirely unexpected and unorthodox choice that would carry great reward and great risk. It's the opposite of a safe pick. Among that group: Govs. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana and Sarah Palin of Alaska.

As always, the number one ranked candidate is the most likely -- as of today -- to be the pick. Kudos or critiques are welcome in the comments section below.

To the Line (part deux)!

DEMOCRATS

5. Hillary Rodham Clinton: As we reported earlier this week, the New York Senator has not yet received a request from the Obama vetters for information. But, it's impossible to do a veepstakes Line without including Clinton. She could help Obama in a number of ways -- on the experience question, with Hispanics, with rural voters in the Rust Belt -- and yet there seems little momentum in Obama world to pick her. (Previous ranking: 5)

4. Joe Biden: Biden is the veritable definition of "Democratic Party Elder Statesman." And, Biden seems to be the choice of a number of relatively conservative figures in the party who believe he would broaden Obama's appeal in red states. Why isn't Biden higher on the Line? His penchant for shooting from the hip is the antithesis of what you want in a vice president. (Previous ranking: 4)

Jack Reed
Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.) (AP Photo/Steven Senne, File)

3. Jack Reed: The Rhode Island Senator is the hottest veep name in Democratic circles these days. In The Fix's informal poll of party strategists, Reed's name cropped up on nearly every list. And, for good reason: Reed spent more than two decades in the Army and Army Reserves, and is widely seen a one of Democrats' strongest voices on military matters. But, does Reed want it? (Previous ranking: N/A)

2. Tim Kaine: The governor of Virginia drops from the pole position he held last week simply because our sense of the Obama team's mindset is that they are leaning toward experience over change in their veep calculus. That could, of course, change. And, if it does, Kaine is in the strongest position to be the pick -- from his deep roots in the faith community to his popularity in an emerging battleground state to his close personal relationship with Obama. (Previous ranking: 1)

1. Evan Bayh: The Indiana Senator sits atop of the Line this week because he represents the best combination of traits that Obama is looking for in a vice president. Bayh has rich experience both domestically and internationally, having served as two term governor in Indiana and now as a senator from the Hoosier State. But, picking Bayh also allows Obama to re-affirm the generational change argument; Bayh, at 52, would make the ticket look a lot like Clinton-Gore back in 1992. (Previous ranking: 2)

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Posted at 07:00 AM ET, 07/18/2008

Friday Senate Line: More and Less of the Line

Editor's Note: Chris Cillizza was online this morning at 11 a.m. ET discussing the veepstakes, congressional approval ratings, the Senate Line and the latest news on politics.

With the vice presidential sweepstakes heating up (we are t-minus one month -- or so -- before the choices are announced), The Fix is ramping up our Line.

From now until the vice presidential picks are made, we are doubling our pleasure: the traditional Line (Senate, House and battleground states) on Friday mornings and a BONUS veepstakes Line every Friday afternoon -- what better way to get ready for the weekend than boning up on the vice presidential jockeying!

Friday Line

Since we are doing two Lines every Friday, each one will be somewhat more brief. (Mrs. Fix is a once-in-a-lifetime woman and we don't want to push our luck!)

As always, the top ranked race on the Line is the most likely to switch sides in the fall. And, the Line is meant as a conversation starter so if you disagree (or agree) with our ratings, feel free to sound off in the comments section.

To the Line (part 1)!

10. Minnesota (R) : Entertainer Al Franken (D) has had a dismal last few months in his race against Sen. Norm Coleman (R), and polling reflects it. The most recent survey conducted in the contest put Coleman ahead 52 percent to 39 percent. That might be a bit on the high side but even Democrats acknowledge Franken has work to do. Franken has put together a solid campaign team but needs to right the ship -- and quick. (Previous ranking: 9)

Elizabeth Dole
Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-N.C.) (Photo by Chris Hondros/Getty Images)

9. North Carolina (R): Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) is in the race of her political life against state Sen. Kay Hagan (D) but the incumbent's recent flight of ads helped solidify her lead a bit. Still, Hagan showed her fundraising ability over the last three months -- $1.5 million raised! -- and significantly narrowed Dole's cash-on-hand edge. National Democrats believe strongly in their chances here as evidenced by the nearly $6 million in ad time they have reserved. (Previous ranking: 8)

8. Mississippi (R): The Magnolia State moves up the Line this week as strategists on both sides of the aisle are now conceding this one is going to be a barn burner. Former governor Ronnie Musgrove (D) is far better known than appointed Sen. Roger Wicker (R) statewide but Wicker has a big cash edge and will be able to make up ground in the name identification fight quickly. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is now up with ads in Mississippi -- unwilling to cede the airwaves to Wicker. Never forget: this is a special election so neither Musgrove nor Wicker will have any party affiliation on the ballot, a fact that almost certainly accrues to Democrats' benefit. (Previous ranking: 10)

7. Louisiana (D): Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) continues to run a solid campaign -- steadily stockpiling millions of dollars and now on television with an ad that casts her as "fighter" for the state. Democrats seem entirely too dismissive of state treasurer John Kennedy (R), however, who continues to impress on the fundraising front. Remember that Landrieu, despite running against two very weak Republican opponents in 1996 and 2002, never topped 52 percent of the vote. This one is going to be close. (Previous ranking: 7)

6. Oregon (R): Sen. Gordon Smith's (R) recent ad touting his ties to Barack Obama reeks of desperation. And yet, state House Speaker Jeff Merkley barely eked by in what was supposed to be a coronation primary. The $1.4 million Merkley raised over the last three months combined with the fact that the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is now on the air and Democratic campaign guru Paul Johnson has been brought in to help all suggest this race could move up the Line in the coming months. (Previous ranking: 6)

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Posted at 05:24 PM ET, 07/17/2008

Edwards Vet Heads North to Help Franken

Eric Schultz, national spokesman for former North Carolina senator John Edwards's 2008 presidential bid, has signed on as deputy campaign manager for the foundering Senate bid of entertainer Al Franken in Minnesota.

Schultz, who was heavily lobbied by national Democrats to take the job, will have a broad role in the campaign -- overseeing the communications, research and speechwriting arms. He, along with highly regarded campaign manager Stephanie Schriock, media consultants Mandy Grunwald and Saul Shorr, and pollsters Diane Feldman and Roy Temple, will form Franken's political inner circle as he heads for a general election clash against Sen. Norm Coleman (R).

"I'm excited to head to Minnesota to help Al Franken change the Norm in Washington," said Schultz. HEYOOOO!

Prior to his work for Edwards, Schultz served as a spokesman and communications director for Sen. Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) and did a stint a New Hampshire communications director for Sen. John Kerry (Mass.) in the 2004 general election.

He joins a campaign under siege.

Franken got off to an extremely strong start, erasing many of the doubts that observers -- The Fix included -- had about the seriousness of the endeavor. Through a combination of extremely strong fundraising and a focus on grassroots organizing, Franken all but forced attorney Mike Ciresi from the race -- a development that ensured he would be the Democratic nominee.

And then, everything went wrong. Franken and his staff mishandled reports that he owed back taxes in a number of states -- allowing the story to linger for weeks before eventually paying off the money he owed. Then came the revelation of a satirical column Franken had written for Playboy magazine heavy on sexual talk (man does that sound prudish) that brought him condemnation from, among others, Minnesota Democratic Rep. Betty McCollum.

Franken caught something of a break when former governor (and professional wrestler) Jesse Ventura decided earlier this week not to join the race as an independent but recent polling suggests that Coleman has opened up a solid lead over Franken.

All is not lost for Democrats in the state, however. The additions of Schultz and Shriock should help bring order and discipline to Franken's campaign and Barack Obama's presence at the top of the ticket should also provide a boost to the Democratic ticket.

Schultz is the latest alumnus of Edwards's presidential campaign to re-up somewhere within the Democratic campaign machine. Research director Christina Reynolds, one of Edwards's closest aides, is now the director of rapid response for Obama. Andrea Purse, who headed up Edwards television and radio communications team, and James Kvaal, the campaign's policy director, are both at the Center for American Progress. Top aides Joe Trippi and Jonathan Prince have returned to their respective consulting companies.

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Posted at 01:40 PM ET, 07/17/2008

The Case Against Charlie Crist

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist is one of the few potential vice presidential candidates of either party who doesn't seek to downplay his interest in and excitement about the post.

VP Watch

"It is very flattering to be considered and even the mere mention of the question is a humbling kind of thing for someone like me," Crist told Sky News during an interview earlier this week on a trip to Europe.

Yesterday we made the case for why Crist would be the perfect pick as John McCain's running mate. Today we argue the opposite.

Conservative Catnip

Crist insists he is a conservative but no one outside of his staunchest allies in the Republican party really believe him.

Crist, who downplays policy questions on the campaign trail and in the governor's office (more on that later) has taken a variety of positions on issues dear to conservatives' hearts -- among them abortion and and gay marriage.

Charlie Crist
Fla. Gov. Charlie Crist (Bloomberg News)

Crist is also far more friendly with trial attorneys -- he famously declared "the lawyers are back!" soon after taking office -- than most Republican office-holders and activists who tend to see plaintiffs attorneys as nothing more than ambulance chasers trying to score a quick buck.

The sentiment of movement conservatives toward Crist was summed up in a column in the Washington Times penned by Burnie Thompson, a Florida talk-radio host. "Crist is the RINO poster boy," wrote Thompson. "He's a Republican in name only. He's as politically calculating as the Clintons, and equally enamored of power."

In other words, Crist isn't one of them. And, despite his largely conservative record, neither is McCain. While conservatives have generally rallied behind McCain following the primary fight, it's an open secret that most movement conservatives would have preferred either of the two former governors -- Mitt Romney (Mass.) and Mike Huckabee (Ark.) -- to McCain.

For McCain to have any chance at winning this fall, he MUST find ways to excite the conservative base about turning out for him. The easiest way to do that is to pick someone as vice president that conservatives see as one of their own. And, that isn't Charlie Crist.

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Posted at 10:05 AM ET, 07/17/2008

Obama's Fundraising in Context

Sen. Barack Obama's $52 million haul in the month of June is nearly certain to quiet whispers that his vaunted fundraising machine had slowed, and seems to justify his decision last month to opt out of public financing for the general election.

Obama's campaign announced this morning the $52 million take and that Obama had ended the month, his first as the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, with $72 million in the bank.

"You continue to prove what ordinary Americans committed to change can accomplish, despite the Washington lobbyists and special interest PACs funding so much of our opponents' campaign," wrote campaign manager David Plouffe in an e-mail to supporters announcing the news that doubled as a fundraising pitch of its own.

"As I mentioned in my video message to you earlier in the week, we're facing a Republican machine with unprecedented resources at its disposal," writes Plouffe. "The McCain campaign and the Republican National Committee finished June with nearly $100 million in the bank."

While the money chase tends to get outsized attention in the media -- it's easily quantifiable and the numbers are BIG -- it's impossible to overstate how much money matters in the race between Obama and John McCain.

Obama's decision to opt out of public financing for the general election -- the first presidential candidate to do so since the system was put in place in the early 1970s -- means that money will be front and center to every strategic decision made by both sides in the coming months.

Obama took a calculated risk in opting out: that his fundraising advantage over McCain would be large enough to justify the time and energy it takes to collect hundreds of millions of dollars.

So, how did he do in his first month as the nominee?

That depends on who is doing the analyzing.

Obama soared well above the $30 million figure laid out in the Wall Street Journal (and vehemently disputed by the campaign at the time) but well below the $100 million number that some Democratic fundraisers floated.

Compared to the cash-collecting performance by Sen. John Kerry (Mass.) following his own securing of the nomination, Obama measured up well.

Kerry collected $44 million in March 2004, the first full month it was clear that he would be the Democratic nominee. That was a huge spike from the $8.4 million he had raised in February and the $7.6 million (including a $3.5 million loan) he collected in January of that year. All tolled for his primary campaign, Kerry raised $249 million; Obama, as of the end of June, had collected $347 million -- all but a few million of which is in primary dollars.

Obama did not set his own personal fundraising record for a month. The $52 million in June was close but not quite as much as the $56.7 million the campaign raised in February. In that, Obama is the victim of his own successes; had he not raised $136 million in the first three months of the year (Kerry raised $60 million during that time in 2004, McCain raised just $39.7 in that same time period this cycle), there would be no question about the unmitigated success of Obama's fundraising.

Taken broadly, what Obama's June fundraising number means is that rumors of his fundraising machine's demise have been vastly exaggerated. Obama continues to compete only with his past eye-popping totals when it comes to cash collection and, due to the relatively small average contribution to his campaign ($68 in June), he continues to grow a massive list of donors who can keep giving as he turns his attention to raising money for the general election.

If Obama can put together four more months of $50 million raised, he will have $200 million to spend on the general election; more than double the $84 million that McCain will get from the public financing system. (UPDATE: The Fix, no math whiz, has been informed by several smart sources that the previous calculation is not entirely accurate. Of the $52 million Obama raised in June, jusr $2 million was for the general election. Therefore, Obama needs to find a way to continue to raise considerable cash for the primary -- until he becomes the party's formal nominee in late August -- AND collect money for the general election, a more daunting feat that was made clear above.)

It now seems clear that Obama is positioned to enjoy a significant financial edge over McCain in the general election.

It's important to remember that money, especially at the presidential level, is not determinative of the outcome as demonstrated by McCain's underfunded run to the Republican nomination earlier this year.

But, any campaign or candidate would rather have more money to spend than their opponent coming down the home stretch. And, as of today, Obama seems likely to be in that position when summer turns to fall.

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Posted at 07:00 AM ET, 07/17/2008

Fix Pick: Get To Know Sheldon Adelson

For anyone who has been to Las Vegas in the last few years, it's hard to miss Sheldon Adelson's imprint on the Strip -- his Venetian and Palazzo casinos are among the most luxurious in Sin City. But, for those of who who toil day in and day out in the nation's capital, Adelson has been a distance presence.

No longer.

Adelson, the third richest man in America according to Forbes magazine, has in recent years turned his attention and, more importantly, his wallet to American politics. Adelson has donated more than $229,000 to various state and national Republican committees and candidates over the last three elections but his real influence is felt in the contributions he has -- and continues to make -- to 527s and 501(c)(4)s that engaged in public education/political efforts

Adelson is one of the prime movers and major backers of Freedom's Watch, the independent, conservative-aligned group expected to play a major role in House and Senate races this year. He has reportedly donated $30 million to fund the groups activities, but because Freedom's Watch is a 501(c)(4), it is not required to make public its donors.

Although Adelson has lurked in the shadows for years, two new profiles -- one by the Wall Street Journal (subscriber-only, boooo!), the other by the New Yorker -- bring him into sharp relief.

Among the tidbits we learn about Adelson:

* His massive wealth is a relatively recent phenomenon due in large part to his investment in casinos on the Chinese island of Macau. Adelson invested hundreds of millions; his return on the investment was in billions.

* Adelson is a major figure in Israeli politics, having started a free daily newspaper known as Israel Hayom that is widely seen as a vehicle to re-install conservative Benjamin Netanyahu as the country's prime minister.

* The gaming tycoon sees his role in the coming fall election as "the cavalry coming over the hill, bugles blaring," according to a rare interview (Adelson idolizes MGM Grand majority shareholder Kirk Kerkorian in press relations; "Kirk never talks to the press," he says) with the Wall Street Journal.

* Adelson and Rep. Shelley Berkley (D) are engaged in a long-running feud. When Adelson fired Berkley, who in the late 1990s was vice president of government and legal affairs of Sands, he penned a letter to the Las Vegas Review Journal accusing Berkley of attacking him "in order to draw attention away from her own ethical lapses." Berkley, who ran for and won a seat in Congress in 1998, responded with a letter of her own alleging that "Mr. Adelson seeks to dominate politics and public policy through the raw power of money." Only in Vegas.

What's clear from both pieces about Adelson is that Republicans in Congress view him as a potential savior (he is referred to in both profiles as the conservatives answer to liberal philanthropist Georges Soros). Adelson is not the silver bullet answer many Republicans are looking for, but it would be a mistake by Democrats to underestimate the power that one extremely wealthy man with an agenda to push can have on congressional races.

The key in determining Adelson's impact? How much money does he ultimately give to Freedom's Watch, and other-like minded groups, and does the money have strings attached or can the operatives at the organizations spend it as they see fit?

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Posted at 03:41 PM ET, 07/16/2008

Wrestling for Control of Iraq

Two new ads focused squarely on the war in Iraq albeit it with VERY different messages are hitting the television airwaves today.

The ads are being sponsored by Vets for Freedom, a group touting the success of the surge in Iraq, and by MoveOn.org, one of the most outspoken critics of the Bush Administration policies in the Middle East.

The dueling ads represent the ongoing battle in the country about the next step in Iraq. While strong majorities believe the war wasn't worth fighting, the new Washington Post/ABC News poll showed the country is far more divided on what to do now; 50 percent said they favored Obama's plan to withdraw all combat troops within 16 months while 49 percent preferred no specific timetable.

"We think the news that Iraqis really want a timetable for withdrawal just like Americans, just like Obama, hasn't really gotten out there," said MoveOn.org executive director Eli Pariser about the ad. "We want to educate voters about that."

Pete Hegseth, chairman of Vets for Freedom, said the goal of his group's ad is twofold: "inform the general public about the success of the surge" and "recognize that this policy...was indeed opposed by some."

The ads are below. Which one more effectively makes its point?

Vets For Freedom

MoveOn.org

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Posted at 12:50 PM ET, 07/16/2008

Inside the Post Poll: What Obama-Clinton Divide?

The political chatter over the last few days has centered on the continued rift between backers of Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton.

First came the report over the weekend that Obama had, in a private conversation with a Democratic donor friendly to Clinton, said that former President Bill Clinton would be a "complication" to his wife's chances at the vice presidency.

Then came a story by Huffington Post in which three major donors to Clinton's campaign expressed their doubts and hesitations about jumping on board with Obama.

A look inside the numbers of the most recent Washington Post/ABC News poll in which Obama lead John McCain 50 percent to 42 percent suggests, however, that while elements of discontent remain, Obama is not suffering broadly among any group that overwhelmingly sided with Clinton in the primary season.

(A note of thanks to Post polling director Jon Cohen and polling analyst Jennifer Agiesta for making the numbers available to The Fix.)

Among women, the strongest pillar of Clinton's support in the primary, Obama holds a wide 54 percent to 39 percent lead over McCain. And, even among white women, who were one of Obama's weakest constituencies in the primary season, he fights McCain to a statistical draw -- 47 percent to 46 percent. Compare that to the 2004 presidential race in which Sen. John Kerry (Mass.) lost white women by 11 points to President George W. Bush and won women overall by just three points.

As for the white, rural, blue-collar voters of whom much was made following large Clinton victories in places like Ohio, Kentucky, Pennsylvania and West Virginia, there also seems to be no entrenched resistance to Obama's candidacy.

While Obama is losing among white voters (50 percent McCain, 42 percent Obama), there is no gap between how he performs among whites with college degrees and those without a college education; McCain lead 51 percent to 44 percent among white college graduates and 50 percent to 41 percent among white non-college graduates.

Among white voters who make $50,000 a year or less -- those lower middle class voters some strategists believed would abandon Democrats after Clinton lost the nomination fight -- Obama and McCain are running even (45 percent Obama, 44 percent McCain).

In both voting blocs, Obama is overperforming Kerry's showing in 2004. Kerry lost white non-college voters by 23 points to Bush and came up short among white voters earning less than $50,000 by seven points.

Older voters, who went strongly for Clinton over Obama in the primaries, also seem to have come home to the Illinois senator. He took 47 percent to McCain's 46 percent among voters between 50 and 64 years of age and only trailed the Arizona senator by five points -- 45 percent to 40 percent -- among those 65 and older.

In 2004, Bush won a narrow 51 percent to 48 percent victory over Kerry among those 45 to 59 years of age, while taking a broader 54 percent to 46 percent edge among those over 60 years old.

The news of the poll is not entirely hunky-dory for those Democrats who hope to leave the "Obama vs. Clinton" narrative behind heading into the fall election, however.

Among those who said they supported Clinton in the primary, nearly one in four (23 percent) said they would back McCain over Obama in a hypothetical trial heat -- a significant chunk of voters given that the vast majority of backers of the New York senator are far more likely to agree with Obama rather than McCain on issues.

Overall, however, the results of the Post/ABC poll seem to contradict the conventional wisdom that a major rift remains in the party. There are, without question, a group of Clinton allies -- particularly in the major donor community -- who can't, and may never be able to, bring themselves to back Obama.

But, for the average person, the scars of the primary (if they ever really existed) seem to have healed. That's good news for Democrats who have long believed the one thing that could keep them from the White House in the fall is a significant fracture within their base of supporters.

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Posted at 07:00 AM ET, 07/16/2008

The Case for Charlie Crist

Florida Republican Gov. Charlie Crist has been all over the national news lately.

On the policy front, he backed up Sen. John McCain's (R) call for lifting the moratorium on offshore drilling, a reversal of his opposition to drilling spurred, Crist said, by the high price of gas.

On the personal front, Crist announced his engagement to Carole Rome; the couple had been dating for nine months.

VP Watch

So, given all the attention paid to Crist of late, does he merit being McCain's vice presidential pick later this summer?

Today we make the case for McCain to pick Crist. Tomorrow we argue the opposite side. (Looking for past "cases for/cases against"? Check out the "Veepstakes" category on The Fix.)

Florida, Florida, Florida

The Sunshine State has been at the epicenter of the race for the White House in the last two presidential elections. In 2000, it was literally the linchpin on which the presidency turned while four years later there was slightly less drama as President Bush won a 52 percent to 47 percent victory over Sen. John Kerry (Mass.) in the state.

Conventional wisdom heading into this fall's presidential election is that Florida is McCain's to lose -- especially given the lingering tensions between supporters of Barack Obama and backers of Hillary Rodham Clinton. Clinton remains extremely popular in Florida -- particularly among the state's influential Jewish and Hispanic voters -- and polling has long suggested she would have been a more formidable foe against McCain than Obama.

Charlie Crist and John McCain
Fla. Gov. Charlie Crist stands with Sen. John McCain in Florida in June. (AP Photo/David Adame)

But, two recent developments suggest that Florida may not be the cakewalk for McCain that many observers believe.

The first is the report that seven (seven!) times more Democrats have registered to vote than Republicans since the first of the year in Florida. Democratic registration increased by more than 100,000 in that time while Republican registration grew by less than 17,000.

The second is Obama's decision to advertise aggressively in the state. His latest ad, which hit Sunshine State airwaves yesterday, touts his bipartisan work with Sen. Dick Lugar (R-Ind.) to secure loose nuclear materials.

Obama's willingness to spend money and campaign extensively in Florida coupled with Democratic registration gains there suggest that the race could be far more competitive than currently assumed.

Regardless of whether you believe Florida is a genuine toss-up or a leaning Republican state, adding Crist to the ticket helps.

In a toss-up race, Crist could make the difference as he not only has a demonstrated appeal at the ballot box (and high approval ratings to boot) but also has surrounded himself with a highly regarded political team -- both in Florida and Washington.

If the state already leans toward McCain, then naming Crist would put it away before Labor Day -- taking a hugely expensive state off the battleground map and allowing McCain, who is likely to be operating at a significant financial deficit to Obama, to re-allocate resources to other large states like Ohio and Michigan.

It's a win-win proposition.

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