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S.C.'s 5th District: The GOP's Best Shot at Spratt?
COLUMBIA, S.C. -- After a quick lunch today at Willy's, I made my way to a meeting with state Rep. Ralph Norman (R) -- the candidate being touted as Republicans' best chance in years of ousting Rep. John Spratt (D) in the 5th District.
National Republicans are pulling out all the stops for Norman. White House Deputy Chief of Staff Karl Rove will be in South Carolina tomorrow to raise campaign cash for Norman, and Vice President Dick Cheney is scheduled to do a fundraising event next month in Rock Hill.
Despite an overall national climate that is not favorable for Republicans, Norman said he likes where he stands because "people want change. People don't want your typical politicians."
Norman, 52, is a new to elected office having run only one previous race -- a 2004 open state House contest where he took 52 percent of the vote in the Republican primary and was unopposed in the general election. Despite his rookie status, Norman has one major advantage over past GOP candidates who challenged Spratt: He (like Spratt) hails from York County -- the fastest growing area of the sprawling district. York's population, Norman said, has been growing steadily over the past decade with "conservative voters moving in primarily for jobs and, hand in hand with that, quality of life."
The winning formula for Norman, to hear several Republicans tell it, is to raise enough money to get on Charlotte (N.C.) television, which reaches into York, and thereby maximize Republican turnout. At the end of 2005, he had more than $400,000 in the bank, compared to the $736,000 Spratt had in his campaign warchest.
Although the low-key Norman is a strong candidate on paper, he faces several major hurdles in trying to oust Spratt, who has held the seat since 1982. First, he must get by former teacher Park Gillespie in the Republican primary. Gillespie, who graduated from Bob Jones University, was selected as the "American Candidate" in a Showtime reality show of the same name in 2004. So far, his real-life candidacy has been less successful as Gillespie had just $24,000 in the bank at the end of 2005.
The second major challenge for Norman is raising his name identification in a district that spans 14 counties and four different media markets. Spratt is a known commodity throughout the 5th, a presence that has allowed him to win reelection time and time again in spite of the clear Republican lean of the district. (President Bush carried it by 15 points in 2004.) Norman insisted that his blueprint for beating defeat Spratt is clear: "You lay out his record as best you can with the funds you have," he said, saying that on a variety of spending issues Spratt has staked out a liberal position.
While Norman is generally well-thought of by national Republicans, there is some grumbling in GOP circles that he has moved too slowly in hiring a professional campaign team. Norman has now brought on Glen Bolger of Public Opinion Strategies as his pollster and Sonny Scott of Anthem Media as his media consultant.
Norman represents Spratt's most serious challenge since the mid 1990s when the Democrat won reelection with 52 percent (1994) and 54 percent (1996) of the vote. But if Spratt could hold this GOP-tilting seat in a Republican tidal wave election like 1994, he seems likely to hold it again in 2006.
Spratt has made no secret that he is considering retirement in the not-too-distant future, however, and if he beats Norman in a close contest this fall he may decide to make the 110th Congress his last. In that event, Norman would begin an open-seat race in 2008 as the early favorite.
By Chris Cillizza |
February 23, 2006; 5:14 PM ET
| Category:
House
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Get This Widget >>
Posted by: Joe | August 6, 2006 1:07 PM
Despite his rookie status, Norman has one major advantage over past GOP candidates who challenged Spratt: He (like Spratt) hails from York County -- the fastest growing area of the sprawling district.
Here is proof that Chris Cillizza, like the rest of the lazy Beltway press corps, will print anything you tell them.
Spratt has faced a York County opponent in FOUR out of the last FIVE races. Rock Hill restaranteur Larry Bigham (1994 and 1996), Clover Town Manager Mike Burkhold (1998), the aforementioned Carl Gullick (2000). He faced token opposition from a Limestone College professor in 2002.
A previous commenter described how the "Spratt is vulnerable" meme gets pushed in every cycle, and every year Spratt wins by a larger and larger margin.
Posted by: What Liberal Media | February 27, 2006 2:15 PM
This race isn't on the national radar and Norman way over-hyped. There are GOP partisans who want to oust Spratt, but they've been voting against him since 1982. SC-05 is more Democratic than the rest of the South Carolina, and there are better investments for the NRCC than this one.
Posted by: Snoozer Race | February 24, 2006 9:56 AM
Spratt's 1994, 1996, and 2000 opponents were all hyped as the next big thing and ran national campaign with loads of DC cash. If the NRCC couldn't knock him off then, how do they expect to do it in a better Democratic year like 2006? How many Republicans at Shaw AFB vote will support Spratt because he saved them during BRAC?
Posted by: Dream on | February 23, 2006 10:21 PM
The GOP's "best shot" at Spratt would have to be one by Dick Cheney.
Posted by: FairAndBalanced? | February 23, 2006 8:22 PM
Norman is a loser.
Posted by: Puh-lease | February 23, 2006 5:53 PM
Spratt's last "serious" competition came in 2000 when Carl Gullick, chairman of the York County Council, ran against him. Gullick was a lackluster fundraiser and Spratt trounced him by 18 percentage points. District-wide, Spratt won that race by approximately 44,000 votes, and won York County by a narrow marigin. Since that time, York County has grown to the tune of 13,000 new registered voters as of November 2005. No other county has seen their voter roles increase by more than a thousand. So, right off the bat, it's obvious that the only significant growth has occurred in York County.
Even if every single one of these new voters turned out, and if every single one of them voted for Norman, as unlikely as such a scenario would be, Spratt would still win by a significant marigin. The numbers simply don't work in Norman's favor. Spratt hasn't lost a single county in the entire district since 1998. And the percentage of African-American voters actually increased after the last round of redistricting.
Moreover, while York County is solidly Republican, Spratt has always held his own there, never losing the county by more than a thousand votes. Spratt has deep ties to the county. His family literally settled the county back in the mid-1700's.
Norman is a serious candidate who clearly has the ability to raise the money to be competitive, but he's too much of a political neophyte to topple someone with the organization and financial backing of the likes of John Spratt. Spratt won't beat him by 18 percentage points, but I'll bet good money Spratt stays above 55%.
Spratt will hold on to this seat until he chooses to retire. At that time, the Republican nominee, whoever he or she may be, will most likely be favored, but not because of the district's lean. Democrats will face the same problem that dogs them all across SC - they have neglected the party apparatus at the county level for twenty years, which has left them without a farm-team and with no natural successor to Spratt's seat.
Posted by: 5th District Resident | February 23, 2006 5:47 PM
Thank you Chris for your post. I hope he doesn't retire; South Carolina and the country definitely needs people of Rep. Spratt's savvy, experience, and expertise in Washington.
Posted by: Jason | February 23, 2006 5:46 PM
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Congressman John Spratt is an embarrassment to South Carolina and the Country. Just ask the people in Winnsboro. He has hooked up Nancy Pelosi from San Francisco and he is meddling in the private lives of our high school kids.