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The Friday Line: Ten More Govs. Races to Watch
With 36 gubernatorial contests on the ballot this November, it's been difficult to choose just 10 "top" races for the Friday Line. Since we make up the rules as we go, this month's governors rankings will take a closer look at the second-tier of races, those that rank from 11 to 20 in terms of their chances of switching parties in the fall.
Almost every one of the races in this "second 10" should be hotly contested by both parties, and the contests occupying slots 11 to 15 could well eventually crack the top 10 before the cycle is over. (See my last governors rankings here.)
As always, kudos and quibbles are welcome in the comments section below.
20. Texas -- Rick Perry (R): While we don't expect Perry to lose this fall, this race has too many intriguing elements to leave it off the Line entirely. In addition to Perry and former Rep. Chris Bell (D), two other candidates -- state Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn (mother of White House spokesman Scott McClellan) and humorist Kinky Friedman -- are seeking to petition their way onto the ballot as independents. To do so, both need to secure more than 45,000 signatures of Texans who did not vote in either the Democratic or Republican primary by May 11 to qualify. If they do, expect a wild race that will garner considerable attention from the media. An independent poll conducted in mid-February showed Perry at 36 percent, Bell at 19 percent, Strayhorn at 16 percent and Friedman at 10 percent. Stay tuned.
19. Minnesota -- Tim Pawlenty (R): This race has drawn little national attention but has the potential to get interesting depending on who emerges as the Democratic nominee. The first major test for the Democratic candidates will be the state convention in July; a candidate will need to secure 60 percent of the vote to gain the formal endorsement of the party. State Attorney General Mike Hatch appears to be the frontrunner, having won the party's statewide caucus earlier this month, but he may not be able to secure the necessary delegate support to win the official party backing. Hatch, along with state Sen. Becky Lourey and wealthy developer Kelly Doran, plans to stay in the contest through the September primary no matter how the party convention turns out. Pawlenty could be hurt by a national climate that favors Democrats in this blue-leaning state.
18. Oregon -- Ted Kulongoski (D): Kulongoski dodged a major bullet when popular former Gov. John Kitzhaber decided not to challenge him in the May 16 Democratic primary. Even so, Kulongoski faces a primary test from former state Treasurer Jim Hill, who placed second behind Kulongoski in the 2002 primary, and Lane County Commissioner Pete Sorenson. Republicans have a primary of their own between 2002 nominee Kevin Mannix, state Sen. Jason Atkinson and Portland attorney Ron Saxton, who lost the 2002 GOP primary to Mannix. Kulongoski's numbers are far from stellar, so this remains a race to keep on the radar screen.
17. Alabama -- Bob Riley (R): Riley appeared to be in serious political trouble following voters' rejection in 2003 of his ballot proposal to update the state's tax code (a change that would have raised taxes overall by $1 billion). And his problems seemed compounded when former Alabama state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore, a conservative darling, entered the GOP primary. But Riley is now stumping for a tax cut plan of his own, and Moore has struggled to coalesce support against the incumbent, trailing 56 percent to 28 percent in a Mobile Register survey released in February. Meanwhile, Lt. Gov. Lucy Baxley, the establishment favorite on the Democratic side, is locked in a primary with former Gov. Don Siegelman, who narrowly lost to Riley in 2002. Although Siegelman is scheduled to go on trial in May on federal racketeering charges, he could well defeat Baxley in the state's June 6 primary, which would make Riley's reelection bid considerably smoother.
16. Pennsylvania -- Ed Rendell (D): Polling continues to show Rendell running neck and neck with former Pittsburgh Steelers great Lynn Swann (R). The race still seems like a mismatch between the consummate politician -- Rendell -- and a newcomer to politics -- Swann. But in a year when voters' distrust of politicians is nearing an all-time high, Swann's dearth of political experience could serve him well. Swann's performance recently on "This Week with George Stephanopoulos" made The Fix doubt that he is ready for prime time, but Republican strategists insist he will not make a major slip-up like that again. The race still tilts toward Rendell, but Swann is showing that he can make this a race.
15. Maine -- John Baldacci (D): Filing closed in Maine this week with two Democrats, three Republicans and a Green party candidate all qualifying for the race. Baldacci is not likely to be seriously tested in the Democratic primary, while state Sen. Peter Mills and former Rep. Dave Emery are considered the two frontrunners for the Republican nomination. The picture for 2006 is not yet complete, however, as independent candidates have until June 1 to file their candidacies. Maine has shown a penchant for electing independents -- witness Gov. Angus King's (I) eight-year tenure from 1994 to 2002. And the state's public financing system, which provides funds for any candidate able to collect 2,500 $5 contributions, gives candidates able to reach that threshold a chance to compete with better-funded politicians like Baldacci. Baldacci doesn't seem to have committed any fireable offense, but Democrats are worried enough about his reelection prospects to earn him a spot in the top 15.
14. Illinois -- Rod Blagojevich (D): Republicans are set to pick their nominee Tuesday. State Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka is the frontrunner, although we hear state Sen. Bill Brady is gaining ground thanks to his support downstate. Blagojevich has been buffeted by controversy over allegations of favoritism in state contracts for major donors to his campaign. The allegations have taken their toll on Blagojevich's poll numbers: He held just a seven-point lead over Topinka in an independent poll taken earlier this month. Blagojevich's biggest asset in the race is his bank account, which weighs in at nearly $16 million. Starting at such a financial disadvantage, Topinka (or whoever winds up as the GOP nominee) will need millions of dollars in support from the Republican Governors Association, which has a number of other more pressing priorities in 2006.
13. Alaska -- Frank Murkowski (R): Murkowski's poll numbers are miserable, and he continues to postpone a decision on whether he will run again. Our guess? He retires. That sentiment is shared by both former state Sen. John Binkley and former Wasilla Mayor Sarah Palin, each of whom is raising money to run for the Republican nomination in the August primary. Binkley raised more than $350,000 in the first six weeks of his campaign, establishing him as the nominal frontrunner. State Reps. Eric Croft and Ethan Berkowitz are seeking the Democratic nomination, but they are being overshadowed by former Gov. (and 2004 Senate candidate) Tony Knowles, who continues to mull a bid. Alaska is a solidly Republican state in federal races, but it has shown a willingness to elect Democrats to state office. If Knowles decides to run, this will be a barn-burner.
12. Nevada -- OPEN (Republican Kenny Guinn is retiring): The massive population growth in Nevada makes its politics extremely changeable. Although Guinn is leaving office on a high note after eight years, Democrats believe the state's ever-changing populace gives them a real chance to win here in November. Both parties will play host to August primaries. For Democrats, state Senate Minority Leader Dina Titus and Henderson Mayor Jim Gibson are squaring off. Titus is the more liberal of the two, and hence the slight favorite in the primary, although Gibson released a poll conducted for his campaign in February that showed him trailing by just two points. On the Republican side, it appears to be Rep. Jim Gibbons's race to lose, although he faces Lt. Gov. Lorraine Hunt and state Sen. Bob Beers in the primary. Democrats believe that Gibbons is too conservative for the average Nevada voter and think either Titus or Gibson can beat him.
11. Colorado -- OPEN (Republican Bill Owens is retiring): Republicans seem headed toward an August primary between Rep. Bob Beauprez, the establishment choice, and former University of Denver President Marc Holtzman. A Tarrance Group poll conducted for Beauprez in January showed the congressman with a commanding 58 percent to 13 percent lead over Holtzman. Former Denver District Attorney Bill Ritter has the Democratic field to himself after a number of other potential candidates -- including Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper -- took a pass. There were concerns within the Democratic base about Ritter's anti-abortion views, but the party has now coalesced behind him. A poll conducted for the Denver Post in February showed Ritter with a 43 percent to 37 percent edge over Beapurez -- a startling result given the latter's higher name identification and base in the Denver area. With Democrats winning open Senate and House seats in 2004, Colorado looks to be trending their way.
A quick run-down of the top 10 governors races (from the Feb. 17 Friday Line):
10. Florida (currently R)
9. California (R)
8. Michigan (D)
7. Wisconsin (D)
6. Arkansas (R)
5. Massachusetts (R)
4. Maryland (R)
3. Iowa (D)
2. Ohio (R)
1. New York (R)
Don't forget to check out washingtonpost.com's interactive Election 2006 map for information on competitive House, Senate and governors races.
By Chris Cillizza |
March 17, 2006; 6:00 AM ET
| Category:
Governors
,
The Line
Previous: 2008: The Case Against Rudy Giuliani |
Next: House: Upstate New York Republican to Retire
Get This Widget >>
Comments
Posted by: Wisconsin Observer | April 15, 2006 8:16 AM | Report abuse
Dems are defending 14 Governor spots and Reps have 22 up in 2006.
Safe D- AZ, OK, NH, NM, WY (5)
Safe R- CT, GA, HI, ID, NE, RI, SC, SD, TX, VT (10)
In the top 20, 9 are D seats and 12 are R seats.
Most R seats are in the top 10
(my rankings as well as The Fix's) so the liklihood is that Dems will even out the national holdings.
Right now, I see a party switch in NY, OH, MA, AR, MN, CO, and CA for Dems and IA and MI for Reps.
I am still holding out ME, WI, PA, IL for Dems as "toss-up or in danger" and AL, FL for Reps.
This could wipe out gains in the top 10.
Even though there is a big ? for Alaska, I don't see it changing party hands.
If I had to guess now, Dems +3-+5.
Posted by: RMill | March 20, 2006 10:37 AM | Report abuse
Missed a more recent Nevada poll:
Survey of 500 Likely Voters
January 23, 2006
Election 2006
Nevada Governor
Jim Gibbons (R) 43%
Jim Gibson (D) 38%
RasmussenReports.com
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Election 2006
Nevada Governor
Jim Gibbons (R) 46%
Dina Titus (D) 41%
RasmussenReports.com
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2006/03/the_friday_line_ten_more_govs.html
Posted by: RMill | March 20, 2006 10:23 AM | Report abuse
US Governors
2006 Election
The Fix Top 20
Most recent polls by Rasmussen Reports
Bullpen- Kansas
Survey of 500 Likely Voters
February 9, 2006
Election 2006 Kansas Governor
Kathleen Sebelius (D) 47%
Robin Jennison (R) 36%
RasmussenReports.com
Election 2006 Kansas Governor
Kathleen Sebelius (D) 45%
Jim Barnett (R) 37%
RasmussenReports.com
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/February%202006/Kansas%20Governor%20February.htm
#20 Texas
February 6, 2006
Election 2006 Texas Governor
Rick Perry (R) 40%
Carole Keeton Strayhorn (I) 31%
Chris Bell (D) 13%
Kinky Friedman 9%
RasmussenReports.com
Election 2006 Texas Governor
Rick Perry (R) 38%
Carole Keeton Strayhorn (I) 29%
Bob Gammage (D) 18%
Kinky Friedman 8%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/February%202006/Texas%20Governor%20February.htm
#19 Minnesota
Survey of 500 Likely Voters
February 20, 2006
Election 2006 Minnesota Governor
Mike Hatch (D) 45%
Tim Pawlenty (R) 40%
RasmussenReports.com
Election 2006 Minnesota Governor
Steve Kelley (D) 42%
Tim Pawlenty (R) 42%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/February%202006/Minnesota%20Governor%20February.htm
#18 Oregon
Survey of 500 Likely Voters
February 23, 2006
Election 2006 Oregon Governor
Ted Kulongoski (D) 51%
Kevin Mannix (R) 36%
RasmussenReports.com
Election 2006 Oregon Governor
Ted Kulongoski (D) 47%
Ron Saxton (R) 33%
RasmussenReports.com
Election 2006 Oregon Governor
Ted Kulongoski (D) 48%
Jason Atkinson (R) 36%
RasmussenReports.com
Election 2006 Oregon Governor
Jim Hill (D) 47%
Kevin Mannix (R) 35%
RasmussenReports.com
Election 2006 Oregon Governor
Jim Hill (D) 44%
Ron Saxton (R) 31%
RasmussenReports.com
Election 2006 Oregon Governor
Jim Hill (D) 42%
Jason Atkinson (R) 36%
RasmussenReports.com
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/February%202006/Oregon%20Governor%20February.htm
#17 Alabama
Survey of 500 Likely Voters
February 23, 2006
Election 2006 Colorado Governor
Bob Riley (R) 53%
Lucy Baxley (D) 37%
RasmussenReports.com
Election 2006Colorado Governor
Roy Moore (R) 44%
Lucy Baxley (D) 46%
RasmussenReports.com
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/February%202006/Alabama%20Governor%20February.htm
#16 Pennsylvania
Survey of 500 Likely Voters
February 16, 2006
Election 2006 Pennsylvania Governor
Ed Rendell (D) 46%
Lynn Swann (R) 43%
RasmussenReports.com
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/February%202006/Pennsylvania%20Governor%20February.htm
#15 Maine
Survey of 500 Likely Voters
February 27, 2006
Election 2006 Maine Governor
Dave Emery (R) 39%
John Baldacci (D) 37%
RasmussenReports.com
Election 2006 Maine Governor
Chandler Woodcock(R) 35%
John Baldacci (D) 40%
RasmussenReports.com
Election 2006 Maine Governor
Peter Mills (R) 39%
John Baldacci (D) 38%
RasmussenReports.com
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/February%202006/Maine%20Governor%20February.htm
#14 Illinois
Survey of 500 Likely Voters
February 22, 2006
Election 2006 Illinois Governor
Rod Blagojevich (D) 42%
Judy Baar Topinka (R) 36%
RasmussenReports.com
Election 2006Illinois Governor
Rod Blagojevich (D) 49%
Jim Oberweis (R) 37%
RasmussenReports.com
Election 2006Illinois Governor
Rod Blagojevich (D) 47%
Ron Gidwitz (R) 33%
RasmussenReports.com
Election 2006Illinois Governor
Rod Blagojevich (D) 47%
Bill Brady (R) 29%
RasmussenReports.com
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/February%202006/Illinois%20Governor%20February.htm
#13 Alaska
No recent poll available
#12 Nevada
Survey of 500 Likely Voters
December 1, 2005
Election 2006Nevada Governor
Gibbons (R) 45%
Titus (D) 39%
Other 7%
Not Sure 9%
RasmussenReports.com
Election 2006Nevada Governor
Gibbons (R) 39%
Gibson (D) 42%
Other 9%
Not Sure 11%
RasmussenReports.com
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2005/Nevada%20Governor%20December%206.htm
#11 Colorado
Survey of 500 Likely Voters
February 22, 2006
Election 2006 Colorado Governor
Bill Ritter (D) 40%
Bob Beauprez (R) 33%
RasmussenReports.com
Election 2006Colorado Governor
Bill Ritter (D) 41%
Marc Holtzman (R) 28%
RasmussenReports.com
Election 2006Colorado Governor
Gary Lindstrom (D) 36%
Bob Beauprez (R) 37%
RasmussenReports.com
Election 2006Colorado Governor
Gary Lindstrom (D) 35%
Marc Holtzman (R) 33%
RasmussenReports.com
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/February%202006/Colorado%20Governor%20February.htm
#10 Florida
Survey of 800 Likely Voters
February 6, 2006
Election 2006 Florida Governor
Charlie Crist (R) 42%
Jim Davis (D) 37%
RasmussenReports.com
Election 2006 Florida Governor
Tom Gallagher (R) 44%
Jim Davis (D) 34%
RasmussenReports.com
Election 2006 Florida Governor
Charlie Crist (R) 45%
Rod Smith (D) 33%
RasmussenReports.com
Election 2006 Florida Governor
Tom Gallagher (R) 45%
Rod Smith (D) 32%
RasmussenReports.com
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/February%202006/Florida%20Governor%20February.htm
#9 California
Survey of 500 Likely Voters
February 8, 2006
Election 2006 California Governor
Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) 40%
Phil Angelides (D) 41%
RasmussenReports.com
Election 2006 California Governor
Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) 39%
Steve Westly (D) 34%
RasmussenReports.com
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/February%202006/California%20Governor%20February.htm
#8 Michigan
Survey of 500 Likely Voters
February 9, 2006
Election 2006 Michigan Governor
Jennifer Granholm (D) 44%
Dick DeVos (R) 43%
RasmussenReports.com
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/February%202006/Michigan%20Governor%20February.htm
#7 Wisconsin
Survey of 500 Likely Voters
January 23, 2006
Election 2006 Wisconsin Governor
Jim Doyle (D) 47%
Scott Walker (R) 40%
RasmussenReports.com
Election 2006 Wisconsin Governor
Jim Doyle (D) 48%
Mark Green (R) 41%
RasmussenReports.com
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/January%202006/Wisconsin%20Governor%20January.htm
#6 Arkansas
Survey of 500 Likely Voters
February 8, 2005
Election 2006 Arkansas Governor
Mike Beebe (D) 48%
Asa Hutchinson (R) 38%
RasmussenReports.com
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/February%202006/Arkansas%20Governor%20February.htm
#5 Massachusetts
Survey of 500 Likely Voters
March 7, 2006
Election 2006Massachusetts Governor
Thomas Reilly (D) 38%
Kerry Healey (R) 27%
Christy Mihos (I) 19%
RasmussenReports.com
Election 2006Massachusetts Governor
Deval Patrick (D) 38%
Kerry Healey (R) 25%
Christy Mihos (I) 17%
RasmussenReports.com
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/March%202006/Massachusetts%20Governor%20March.htm
#4 Maryland
Survey of 500 Likely Voters
January 10, 2006
Election 2006 Maryland Governor
Bob Ehrlich (R) 47%
Martin O'Malley (D) 42%
RasmussenReports.com
Election 2006 Maryland Governor
Bob Ehrlich (R) 50%
Doug Duncan (D) 41%
RasmussenReports.com
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/January%202006/Maryland%20Governor%20January%2010.htm
#3 Iowa
Survey of 500 Likely Voters
February 7, 2006
Election 2006Iowa Governor
Jim Nussle (R) 40%
Chet Culver (D) 41%
RasmussenReports.com
Election 2006Iowa Governor
Jim Nussle (R) 41%
Michael Blouin (D) 36%
RasmussenReports.com
Election 2006Iowa Governor
Jim Nussle (R) 42%
Patty Judge (D) 37%
RasmussenReports.com
Election 2006Iowa Governor
Jim Nussle (R) 42%
Ed Fallon (D) 32%
RasmussenReports.com
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/February%202006/Iowa%20Governor%20February.htm
#2 Ohio
Survey of 500 Likely Voters
January 3, 2005
Election 2006 Ohio Governor
Ted Strickland (D) 47%
Ken Blackwell (R) 35%
RasmussenReports.com
Election 2006 Ohio Governor
Ted Strickland (D) 44%
Jim Petro (R) 37%
RasmussenReports.com
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/February%202006/Ohio%20Governor%20February.htm
#1 New York
Survey of 500 Likely Voters
August 23, 2005
Election 2006New York Governor
William Weld (R) 20%
Eliot Spitzer (D) 55%
Other 7%
RasmussenReports.com
Election 2006New York Governor
Tom Golisano (R) 23%
Eliot Spitzer (D) 52%
Other 9%
RasmussenReports.com
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2005/New%20York%20Governor.htm
My Top 20
#1 NY
#2 OH
#3 MA
#4 AR
#5 IA
#6 MI
#7 MN
#8 MD
#9 CO
#10 CA
#11 WI
#12 NV
#13 PA
#14 ME
#15 FL
#16 KS
#17 AL
#18 IL
#19 OR
#20 AK
Texas is interseting but not in danger
Posted by: RMill | March 20, 2006 10:02 AM | Report abuse
MN: Sue Jeffers is the candidate to keep an eye on in this race, I think. A dark-horse that will surprize conventional thinkers.
Posted by: Minnesota Man | March 19, 2006 3:58 AM | Report abuse
y'all's interactive election maps incorrectly lists jason atkinson as a Democratic candidate for governor of oregon. he's a republican.
Posted by: editor | March 18, 2006 10:31 AM | Report abuse
MN: Mike Hatch is tremendously popular statewide and would be a formidable challenger to Pawlenty. I believe Rasmussen already has a poll showing Hatch leading Pawlenty 45-40.
Posted by: Sandwich Repairman | March 18, 2006 2:41 AM | Report abuse
Re: making up the rules as you go. Bush does a lot of that too, but it's not fun when he does it.
Posted by: mg | March 17, 2006 8:09 PM | Report abuse
Up here in Vermont, in the governor's race,
the likely Democratic candidate,Scudder
Parker,is a very strong bet to beat the
vapid and oblivious Republican Governor,
Jim Douglas in this very anti-Bush state.
Note how long Howard Dean served up here
and the waves he has made since.
Ion C. Laskaris, Burlington, Vermont
in this highly anti-Bush state
Posted by: Ion C. Laskaris | March 17, 2006 8:03 PM | Report abuse
Regarding Nevada, Gibson (the Democrat) is pro-life and gun ... an unlikely primary winner ... Titus stands ZERO chance of winning the rural and North that anyone needs to win in this State ... as for the GOP, Lorraine Hunt stands very little chance to beat Jim Gibbons - she has almost no money and a shallow track record. This race is Gibbons to lose.
Posted by: P Morabito | March 17, 2006 7:12 PM | Report abuse
Being a Libertarian, I'm loathe to vote for this bunch of Republicrats. Jim Hill might be an execption. But I'm currently rooting for Ron Westlund, he sounds like a man of reason to me, somebody to find some common ground between city/rural, red/blue Oregon. He's apparently got nothing to lose and little time to lose it in. I'll change my party to vote for him if I must.
Posted by: Byron Dye | March 17, 2006 6:16 PM | Report abuse
According to you there is no sense for any Republican to show up for any race be it for Governor or the Senate or House. I think you are in for a very big surprise come the election in November.
Posted by: Ed Allen | March 17, 2006 4:07 PM | Report abuse
Like Justin, Kitzhaber, Kulongoski, and the other Democratic candidates are not all that popular here. They are viewed as too much in the pocket of the public employees here, who have bankrupted the state. However...the Republican candidates are simply awful! Most have ties to some really corrupt businesses and out-of-state wealthy individuals and no one with any sense at all would even dream of voting for them. So....we got here the lesser of two evils. It appears that this is true pretty much across the country - do you want a Democratic crook or a Republican one? At least the Democratic ones aren't so keen about sending our children off to die in foreign wars and may have learned the lesson that the American people WANT PROTECTIONIST legislation and an end to this globalization nonsense. Or, maybe not; maybe we need to just give up.
Posted by: Mike | March 17, 2006 2:58 PM | Report abuse
I'm wondering why no one has mentioned the effect of Democratic success in gubernatorial races on the possible presidential candidacy of Bill Richardson. He is, after all, the chairman of the Democratic Governors' Association, so he's helming the effort to get more Dems into governorships across the nation. While everyone obsesses about the Senate races and their effect on '08, nobody is talking about the fact that, should lots of Democrats win gubernatorial races, Richardson is in a very good position to run.
Posted by: The Caped Composer | March 17, 2006 2:55 PM | Report abuse
I don't know who you were talking to but John Kitzhaber is not really popular in Oregon. There's a reason he decided not to run.
Posted by: Justin | March 17, 2006 2:38 PM | Report abuse
The gubernatorial landscape continues to look great for Democrats. We have so many pick-up opportunities it's not at all a stretch to see us with 30 governorships to the repubs' 20 after election day.
Posted by: Ohio guy | March 17, 2006 2:09 PM | Report abuse
Chris. Thanks for moving beyond the constraints of the top-10 format. Any chance we can get a look at the House races ranked 10-20 next time you do the People's House? As the Dems would need a pick-up of 15 or more seats, it is really those races that would be decisive.
Posted by: mike | March 17, 2006 12:32 PM | Report abuse
You and the national pollsters have missed the big issue in Oregon which is the role of candidates other than Republicans and Democrats. Governor Kulongoski will win against any Republican in a two person race. However, an independent candidate, Ben Westlund, will have a lot of appeal and traditional 3rd party candidates may pull votes as well. This makes Kulongoski's task much more difficult.
Posted by: John Calhoun | March 17, 2006 11:33 AM | Report abuse
You neglected one of the major contenders in MN, Steve Kelley is a state senator, who is gaining popularity everyday as the only candidate who has agreed to abide by the DFL endorsement over the summer.
Posted by: Jake MN | March 17, 2006 10:20 AM | Report abuse
Correction:
I hope the idiots in Washington giving money to Radnofsky will NOW stop and realize just how important a Bell win is for the National Democratic Party.
Bobby WC
Posted by: Bobby Wightman-Cervantes | March 17, 2006 9:08 AM | Report abuse
Thank you Chris for putting Texas on the map -
Democrats in Texas are mad as H. various groups were able to force the National Party to force the resignations of our Democratic Party Chair Charles Soetching - this was good for the Texas Democrats.
Chris Bell in the primaries received solid support from the Democrats thereby avoiding a run-off - unlike his senate counter-part who could not win out right againt a man calling for making Mexico the 51st State or the perennial US Senate candidate Gene Kelly (BTW we in Texas know he is dead - Gene runs as the we want a better choice candidate in the Democratic Primary - he is our protest vote) Radnofsky had 55% of the Dems vote against her.
The campaign in Texas now is to push for Gene Kelly to win the Senate primary so that all of the money will go to Chris Bell
I have not seen Democrats so heated up about winning the Governor's House since Ann Richard's first ran and won -
If the Dems are smart enough to replace the Party Chair with a power house Latino who can get the Latino vote out in November we will take the Governor's HOuse.
Washington needs to remember - If Bell wins and the US Supreme Court throws out the last redistricting - then the districting reverts back to the old one wherein the Dems won a lot more seats.
Remember Texas only allows it legislature to meet once every two years for a 120 days - if they cannot accomplish redistrcting during the regular session only the Democratic Governor can call for a special session - this could be good for the Dems in the US House.
I hope the idiots in Washington giving money to Radnofsky will not stop and realize just how important a Bell win is for the National Democratic Party.
Bobby Wightman-Cervantes
www.balancingtheissues.com
Posted by: BObby Wightman-Cervantes | March 17, 2006 9:07 AM | Report abuse
The race that has me the most curious is Iowa. Partly a bellweather and will Vislak demonstrate the sort of coattails that Mark Warner did. If so, then perhaps he'll have a New York Times Magazine Cover spot only with a better picture.
Posted by: Intrepid Liberal | March 17, 2006 7:57 AM | Report abuse
The comments to this entry are closed.
Wisconsin's presumptive GOP nominee, Mark Green, has close ties to Jack Abramoff and as Abramoff's testimony begins to see the light of day, look for Green's eight-point deficit in the polls to widen. So cozy was the relationship that Abramoff regularly left tickets for entertainment events to Green's chief of staff and current campaign manager.
A recent state legislature scandal brought down GOP and Dem powers and two from each party are serving time. By implication in the trial, Green, when in the Wisconsin legislature, either began the illegal practices or continued them.
Democrat Jim Doyle has been solid and has not raised taxes as Governor, nullifying a standard GOP attack line.
The word out here is that former Governor Tommy Thompson may enter the GOP primary. If he does, Green is a goner.