I live in 33756 Las Vegas, Nevada. Have you been here before?

hello! http://www.dirare.com/Sweden/ online directory. About DIRare, Search in Business Category, Yellowpages search. From online directory .

As a loyal Democrat and local party leader I would love to see George Allen defeated this FAll and I and many, many others will work day and night to that end. I am afraid, however, that Allen will be very difficult to beat. Despite major successes in recent years by the Dems in traditionally conservative Virginia, Allen is still probably the most popular Republican in the state. He handily beat Chuck Robb 6 years ago and is a major fundraiser. While I do agree that Webb makes the clearly better candidate, I have heard that Allen has hired the diabolical folks behind the "Swift Boats for Truth" to assist in his campaign. Don't be suprised that Allen, like other major chicken hawks that sat out of Vietnam like Cheney and Bush, doesn't attack Webb's military career as was done to Kerry. Hopefully Webb will respond more quickly and more deliberately. Despite some favorable trends for the Dems in Virginia, I'm afraid it won't be enough: Allen 54% Webb 46%

Interesting about PA but I don't believe that the Democratic primary has occured. Why annoint a DINO like Casey when an actual democrat like Chuck P. is in the race and has substantial grass roots support, despite the best efforts of the DSCC.
In any event, what does it matter when races are decided by GOP candidate's family firm (Hagel) or GOP fixer firms (Diebold, Triad, etc.) Ask Max Cleland, whose enormous lead in GA 2002 was ended by Diebold machines. If votes were counted as cast it would be a Dem landslide comparable to 1974. Try reading John Dean's "Worse than Watergate". Unfortunately, in the fixed theofascist country W (who stole the presidency twice), tricky Dick Cheney, Rummy, and Karl (Rasputin) Rove etc. have created, it will take strong exit polls to get Americans in the streets to reclaim our democracy, after the 2006 "vote". Your name "The Fix" couldn't be more true to describe the present state of this country.
Kenfolk

I am an Ec0-Green Republican who is running for US Senate in 2006.
My web page is muffo.org.
As you have listed two democrats ,please add my name to the US map of campaigns.
I attended an event with Sen. Barack Obama (D.IL>), and Rep. Bernie Sanders (S.VT.),even Howard Dean was there.
You will see many more alliances then just Dem and Republican in the 2006 election year.From the huge turnout, and the big buzz there many political lines being crossed.
In Maryland many republicans are not happy with Carl Rove's fundraising, because of his Abramoff connections.
I am for quality health care for all, and cleaning up the environment.
I accept no pac money. Vote Muff or die.

About the Rhode Island Senate race you write, "We continue to think Chafee's best shot at winning reelection is to run as an independent, although he seems entirely disinterested in that gambit." You make one of the most frequent errors of English usage, and one that for some reason always bugs me. "Uninterested" means lacking interest. "Disinterested" means impartial, not biased.

Jackson Landers,

You should be leery of people who post using a name as well.

Top 10 senate races review is informative.
Should we not also be gauging the races
where the Fascist/Repubs have no chance.

Up here in Vermont, an air-head, anti-
abortionist Repub. millionaire is now
trying to get the nomination against
independent, Bernard Sanders.

Tarrant will be lucky to get 29% of the
Senate vote if he gets the nomination.
See how poorly Butch the Second made out
up here in 2004. Sanders, as an independent Senator replacing the more or
less inert ex-Republican Jeffords, now
retiring, will be a much more articulate
progressive voice in the U.S. Senate.

Are there any other likely Repub.losers
in the other 39 states not yet mentioned?
I certainly hope so! ICL, Burlington,Vt.
+ iclrevusa.com

Ken Blackwell recently gave a closed-door speech to the Council on National Policy - a far right-wing group bent on turning America into a theocracy, that was founded by a man who ran an organization that tries to prove that whites are genetically superior to blacks. The text of the speech was scrubbed from Ken Blackwell's website - apparently the members of this group are a secret and do not allow anyone other than members into meetings. Why would a black man pander to such a radical group and then try to erase the evidence he did so?

RMill-

As long as you are insisting on facts I would suggest you look at other polls besides the one random poll from Rasmussen that has the lead at 9 points. Rasmussen had Bush's approval at 49% for weeks when everyone else had it 37%, so maybe you should educate yourelf with some more accurate polls before you speak. Using one poll that regularly tilts very republican does not help your argument. Every other credible poll has a MUCH wider gap (25-30 points), and that is fact, not rhetoric.

If Rick from Cincy is a moderate Dem, then there is no way you would vote for a right wing idiot like Ken Blackwell.....Ted Strickland will win the Gov's race easy! Blackwell may not even win the Repub primary.

Rasmussen had the race at 9 points.

Like I stated, it is definately uphill battle against the incumbant Nelson but with a million dollars on hand, Jeb's support and I am sure a fundraising visit from GW and others, it will become more competitive regardless.

Don't discount the GOP machinery, especially in Florida to turn it around. Nelson is still below 50% and that is not good news for an incumbant.

And I hate to point out that the phrase "as good as over" is exactly rhetoric. Saying "Harris faces numerous challenges, behind in the polls and fundraising by a wide margin as well as rumored ties to potential scandal dampens her election chances" is factual.

I don't believe she has much of a chance either, but especially in a case where accurate language and factual infomation would suffice to make the point, resorting to rhetorical phraseology weakens the point, in my opinion.

RMill -

I see what you're saying about Harris and respect your opinion but I am not being partisn on this one and neither is anyone else when they say that the Florida race is hopeless.

This past week Harris was linked to the same defense contractor who bribed Duke Cunningham, from whom she has taken large campaign donations. She hired a lawyer and stayed inside her office for a few days. Her own top aides were reportedly PLEADING with her to drop out of the race. Those are not good signs. She was already trailing Nelson by 25-30 points in some polls before this latest bad news. It is all over the press in Florida. She was already a lightning rod, and her situatuion has only gotten worse. On top of that, Nelson has at least $8 million to Harris' $1 million. A majority of florida voters have a positive impression of Nelson and a negative impression of Harris.

For me to say something like 'democrats are going destroy Kay Hutchinson in the texas senate race' would be baseless, idiotic rhetoric. I don't even know who our candidate is in texas, and whoever it is will get creamed.

Stating that the Florida senate race is as good as over is NOT rhetoric. It's simply stating fact.

"Cantwell may well have a tough race on her hands but in a BLUE state like Washington I just don't see her losing. Take that with the whole Ports deal which I am sure will play big in Seattle and I think she is pretty safe."

Cantwell is a proponent of outsourcing and THAT is the real security hole. We have Chinese and Indian engineers here as guest workers, working on top security government contracts, being used as "mules" to ferry out prohibited technology and equipment. Indian companies are directly aiding the nuclear weapons programs in Iran, North Korea, Brazil, Argentina, and god knows where else. Our "friendship" with India and China is a temporary relationship built on the fact that we are giving them this technology, our jobs, our money, and the keys to our destruction. One day, a lot sooner than most people imagine, that is going to be used against us. We cannot afford Maria Cantwell any more than we can afford George Bush.

Given the current political climate in Virginia, with Democrats making somewhat of a comeback, a guy like Webb could really make things interesting against Allen.

Allen pales in comparison with our senior senator, John Warner. Webb should be able to pull in many of Virginia's ex-Navy vets, as well as moderates and independents, who rejected Allen clone (and rightwing buffoon) Jerry Kilgore last November.

Buckeye-

Don't chastise Republican rhetoric and then turn around and resort to the same tactics.

Harris has $1 M and the GOP is now consolidating support for her. Yes it is uphill and Nelson has a comfortable lead in cash and a slight lead outside the margin of error in polling at present but it is by no means decided.

It's so funny that Santorum and Burns have a combined $7 million more then their opponents, yet both have already lost. Many repubs will learn that you need conviction and positive ideas to win races, not hordes of dirty lobbyist cash.

Note that Mark Warner, while not endorsing anyone, showed up at a Harris fundraiser. If Warner throws his weight and name behind Miller, it could shift the balance against Webb. VA likes Warner, and trusts him.

It's so sad to read these posts and see how many delirious republican wingnuts are living in La La Land.

Cal - do you have any proof Casey dosen't show up for work - or are you just regurgitating Santorum drivel? At least he isn't raising his $$ from Washington lobbyists like that scumbag Santorum. Santorum is an extreme idealogue and is in the pocket of special interests and Casey isn't - that's what it boils down to. A republican accusing a dem of not being fit for office with Bush currently in the White House is the height of republican stupidity and hypocrisy.

The Virginia race deserves to be ranked ahead of Nebraska at #8. Nebraska shouldn't even be in the top 10. George is the new George Bush - stupid, unaccomplished governor, completely unaware of what isgoing on around him. This would make him an ideal choice for the 2008 GOP nomination - if he manages to survive Webb.
Jackson - actually Webb became a democrat again 5 YEARS ago, and before he was a republican in the reagan administration he was a democrat.

Anyone who thinks Cantwell is in serious trouble is delusional - Cantwell slaughters that jokw McGavick on all the issues. The only thing he has going for him is $$ - which the only thing a lot of repubs running this cycle have going for them.

Ohio - Dewine

Barry - obviously you haven't been reading the papers here in Ohio. Dewine IS losing his conservative base - they hate him b/c of many issues where he broke with his base and he has three primary challengers. Recently, however, Dewine has gone back to his old suck-up re-election-year self. He voted with the rest of the repubs on the intel. committee to not investigate the illegal domestic spying program to cover up for Bush. This pandering and dereliction of oath of office will no doubt draw mindless Bush-lovers back to his camp.

Rick in Cincy - how about basing your comments on facts, not wishes. Strickland is leading Blackwell by 12 points, and you claim Blackwell has it in the bag w/out even winning his primary.

I can book that one???

Get a clue. I would gladly make a bet with any moron willing to bet on Ken Blackwell. Cincinnatti may well be a republican bastion of ignorance - so it's not surprising Ken Blackwell was your mayor, but please.....try readign the paper before you open your motuh and embarrass yourself. He'll win Hamilton County and get crushed everywhere else.

Somebody aboved mentioned that they thought the Florida race was becoming competitve, so i,ll talk about it.
florida Senate race - not even on the radar. Dem prayers were answered earlier in the week when Harris decided to NOT drop out, ensuring a Nelson victory and a possible disaster all the way down the GOP ticket. Hopefully Liddy Dole and the rethugs will waste a lot of money on this race since Harris can't raise any herself.

Nevada should be in the bullpen if Goodman gets in the race.

Ensign has a sizable lead in money $2.37 M to Carter's $223 K.

SUSA 50 state approval ratings had Ensign below 50%, indicating an opening.

John Ensign of Nevada
Main article : Nevada U.S. Senate election, 2006

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Senate_election,_2006#John_Ensign_of_Nevada

John Ensign of Nevada is running for re-election, however recent poll shows he has only a 49% approval rating, which is usually not good for an incumbent going into an election year. The comparatively popular Las Vegas mayor Oscar Goodman has said he will probably try to get the Democratic nomination.[9] An Ensign-Goodman race would likely be competitive, but Goodman would first have to defeat Jack Carter, son of ex-President Jimmy Carter in the primary election. Carter doesn't have very much name recognition, and is currently trailing Ensign in the polls (33% to 48%). However, Goodman polls very close to Ensign (42.5 to 45, respectively) and within the margin of error. It should be noted that most of Nevada Democrats are in Goodman's Las Vegas, where he won with 86% of the vote the last election, providing a possible advantage in the primary election.

Jackson-Landers...

Who else is running for the Nevada Senate nomination? Do you think Goodman really will run and are there others out there? If it comes down to Carter vs. Ensign in the general, don't you think the national mood will play a part in this election as it will in many others? Carter's a pretty smart guy and I don't think he would be doing this race if he didn't think he could win. I hope he can give Ensign a race cause Ensign is just not up to the level that most US Senators possess. He is truly dull and boring and, again, so tied to Bush. Also, what is that ranking of Ensign's you mentioned as I'm unaware of it?..Thanks!!

Silent Cal, I'm glad you prefer to re-elect a guy who brings his dead miscarried fetus home with him, and cuddles it, and even gets pictures! At least you can support a guy who takes his convictions to heart, especially if they provide a good photo-op for the American Taliban in our midst--even if these views are far removed from any consideration of reality. Good on ya!

US Senate Money Race
(cash on hand as of 12/31/05)
http://www.tray.com/cgi-win/x_webl.exe?

Bullpen Virginia-
Allen $6.2 M
D) no data

Bullpen Washington-
Cantwell $5 M
R) McGavick $955 K

Bullpen Michigan-
Stabenow $5.6 M
R) Butler $779 K Bouchard $752 K

Bullpen Florida-
Nelson $8 M
R) Harris $1 M

#10 New Jersey-
Menedez $4.2 M
R) Kean $860 K

#9 Maryland-
D) Cardin $2.15 M Mfume $
R) Steele $786 K

#8 Nebraska-
Nelson $3.2 M
R) Ricketts $210 K Kramer $142 K

#7 Tennessee-
R) Corker $3.8 M Hilleary $1.01 M Bryant $956 K
D) Ford $1.86 M

#6 Minnesota-
R) Kennedy $2.6 M
D) Klobuchar $1.74 M

# 5 Missouri-
Talent $4.6 M
D) McCaskill $1.27 M

#4 Ohio-
DeWine $4.3 M
D) Brown $2.3 M

#3 Montana
Burns $3.3 M
D) Morrison $752 K Tester $166 K

#2 Rhode Island-
Chafee $1.76 M
R) Laffey $830 K
D) Whitehouse $1.56 M Brown $481 K

#1 Pennsylvania-
Santorum $7.7 M
D) Casey Jr. $3.4 M

RMill
I agree with taking Nebraska out. I know that it is a RED as red get state but Nelson has it locked. He is well respected in the State and well respected in Washington. In this environment there is no way Nelson goes down.

Sorry, my name didn't make it to the post about Webb.

The thing about the Virginia race is, unless there is something really stupid done by the Webb team (he is not a seasoned politicans, remember) his candidacy can change the terms of debate not just for Virginia but for the entire country.

Webb has not just a degree of charisma (sadly lacking in Harris Miller) but has clearly thought the issues through. He is an outsider with refreshing ideas and integrity, and it will be interesting to see if he can bring the blue collar and disaffected middle class back into the Democratic Party.

Watch the Washington state race heat up later this month after Senator McCain's visit in support of Mike McGavick. If McGavick sticks to his positive toned and issues centered campaign, Senator Cantwell is history come November. Her negative votes on Roberts and Alito alone will sway enough Independent and moderate Democratic voters that allowed her to squeak in 5 years ago.

We have all seen the dangerous fallout of a party in total power.

It will be nice to see the Dems take control of the power and fight the current administration.

Most need to resign or retire due to the mess they have created for our country.

What about Nevada -- It's a sleeper but Jack Carter's dad is starting to get involved in the race. With the GOP polls down and with a state where the rural votes count (+45k for Bush, cities -20k for Bush), a small town person like Jack Carter could put this senate seat in play.

RMill:
My point precisely. It's been about 3 weeks since that last Rasmussen poll and I haven't seen anything since.

True, Dewine might be up 9% but as you note, he is yet to crack 50%. A lot of time for that to happen. As long as he stays in the high 40's he'll be ok. If he sustains 50% by next fall, well...

I don't agree with those that say that this is a national election and that the GOP is going down. Case in point: Ohio. Taft may be in the dumper, Bush may be unpopular but these two aren't going to get Red State Ohio to elect left winger Brown over incumbent, middle-of the-roader Dewine.

Also, prior to November 2004, Bush rarely broke the 50% threshold in the polls. Even the last polls were showing him no higher than 49%, only to finish with 51% due to the GOTV effort.

I hope the Dems are feeling overconfident.

test test

#10 New Jersey-
Uncommitted running strong at 25%. Menendez clings to slight lead within margin of error over GOP's Kean.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/February%202006/New%20Jersey%20Senate%20February.htm

#9 Maryland-
Cong. Cardin has wide lead on GOP's Steele. Mfume in dead heat in head to head but trails Cardin by 7 in primary match up.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/February%202006/Maryland%20Senator%20February.htm

#8 Nebraska-
No new poll since October 2005 when inclubant Nelson was over 50% and had double digit leads over both GOP hopefuls.

#7 Tennessee-
Ford trails all GOP possibles.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/February%202006/Tennessee%20Senate%20February.htm

#6 Minnesota-
Both Dems Bell and Klobuchar lead GOP's Kennedy, but its tight. With Bell out, Klobuchar should consolidate some additional support.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/February%202006/Minnesota%20Senate%20February.htm

#5 Missouri-
GOP's Talent gains slight edge, still within margin or error over Dems McKaskill.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/February%202006/Missouri%20Senate%20February.htm

#4 Ohio-
Mentioned in above posting

#3 Montana-
Dems' Morrison showing strength in widening lead, Tester ties incumbant GOP Burns. Morrison leads Tester by 7 in primary match up (favorables).
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/February%202006/Montana%20Senate%20February.htm

#2 Rhode Island-
GOP Incumbant Chafee leads both Brown and Whitehouse but worried.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/January%202006/Rhode%20Island%20Senate%20January.htm

#1 Pennsylvania-
Santorum getting thrashed by 16 pts. by Casey Jr.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/February%202006/Pennsylvania%20Senate%20February.htm

Bullpen- Virginia
Allen still holds substantial leads but Dems making up ground fast.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/February%202006/Virginia%20Senate%20February.htm

Bullpen- Florida

Dem Incumbant Nelson leads Harris but GOP finally rallying behind their candidate.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/February%202006/Florida%20Senate%20February.htm

Bullpen- Washington State
Dem incumbant Cantwell with double digit lead, right at 50%.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/February%202006/Washington%20Senate%20February.htm

Bullpen- Michigan
Dem incumbany Stabenow leads both GOP challengers by double digits, above 50%.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/February%202006/Michigan%20Senate%20February.htm

MY CURRENT TOP 10
#10 Virginia
#9 Maryland
#8 Tennessee
#7 Minnesota
#6 New Jersey
#5 Missouri
#4 Ohio
#3 Rhode Island
#2 Montana
#1 Pennsylvania

On deck- Washington

Anonymous & Colin,

Thank you for the source. I am naturally leery of totally anonymout postings as there are a lot of hacks for both parties that troll sites like these and pretty much make up crap.

I looked at the full current Rassmussen report and found a few things interesting. First, the high number of undecideds. Then there was this:

"Respondents unaffiliated with either major party favor the Republican candidates by roughly two-to-one margins. But moderates prefer Ford over the Republicans by about the same large margins."

Talk about a crap-shoot. Usually you have one candidate who both those groups lean towards. There may be something about TN political demographics which would explain this that I just don't get.

The third intersting thing about the March results is that Ford continues to have much higher 'positive' approval ratings than anyone except for Hilleary. Given the high number of undecideds, that gives Ford a lot of room to move in should Hilleary lose the nomination.

Here's a link to the full Rassmussen data:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/February%202006/Tennessee%20Senate%20February.htm

Good analysis by The Fix and cogent replies but everyone misses the forest from looking at and analysing all of the trees.

This is a national election and there will be an electoral tsuanmi coming. It is all about Bush and the crazy GOP. That is the message for the Dems. And when we go to the polls in November, we will be coming off another bad hurricane season. Even if the administration responds correctly, it will bring back memories of Katrina.

My prognosis: bad news for the GOP congress, they are toast in both houses; Bush may be smart enough to then clean house and have a succesful last 2 years as a centrist. A lot of you point to the weaknesses of the Democratic field, but these weaknesses won't be relevant until 2 or 6 years from now when these people come up for their first re-election.

Vienna Voter, You're right, many have jumped ahead to picturing a Webb versus Allen race instead of focusing on his primary run against Harris Miller. But I think this is reflective of the current thinking, and though Miller will have lots of money at his disposal, he is an uninspiring candidate that would easily be defeated by Allen and that machine. People who know both candidates have already moved on--dangerous thinking, but easy to do.

Viennavoter,

If Webb raises the money then he's likely to have this one easily. There's just no buzz among the grassroots for Harris Miller and Democrats from the left, right and center are all jazzed about Webb. Miller has no 'story,' no experience and no particular qualification for office. His name is totally unknown, wheras Webb is a successful author and a legend in the Navy. Webb has Tidewater pretty well wrapped up on that count and Southside knows him as a local boy (Webb grew up in the same hometown as Jerry Kilgore). Miller lives in Northern Virginia (where he is still unknown except among a handful of wealthy businessmen), which hardly has the same meaning for local support that being a Southside boy does. You don't hear much about 'Northern VA suburban pride,' do you?

Last Saturday I was at a local Democratic City Council caucus here in Charlottesville, VA. Charlottesville went 70% for Kerry, so it's clearly a good example of the kind of place where VA Dem primary candidates want to look for votes. I talked with dozens of people about the Senate primary and only one person told me that they were inclined to back Miller. Everyone else was excited about Webb, even as they had concerns about his having been a Republican until about 5 minutes ago.

When Miller announced, you may remember the collective 'huh' that echoed across Virginia. Nobody whatsoever thought of him as anything but a token candidate to keep Allen busy for the rest of the year. Including Miller himself. Insiders bragged that he would 'slow down Allen's momentum for President.' Wheras everyone knows that Webb is running to win. The idea of James Webb in this race has conservatives ranging from local Republican bloggers to the National Review wringing their hands and seriously questioning not only whether Webb might knock Allen down but whether they themselves might not jump the fence to vote for him.

True I am for Webb but I think VA is smart enough to know he's the best run against Allen. And I think VA is an important race because Allen is a possible 08 contender for the White House and this race could make or break that chance. (BREAK!) Plus Allen is still, on his website, siding for the Dubai deal. That will hurt him in the National Security department and that's a big part of VA.

To VivaBush: I thought a Rasmussen poll had DeWine up by 9%. Earlier polling was far closer. In any case, I agree with you that the notion of a Sen. Brown should energize all but the most ardently conservative Republican. Plus, Sherrod as, you know, hasn't been on the ballot outside of NEO in 15 years, whereas DeWine's been a regulat statewide option.

As for SEOH, I don't think it's "hard-core conservative." It certainly is on some social issues, but I think it's more moderate on economic matters and education. This is, I venture to guess, why Strickland (pro-gun and pretty much pro-life) has met with success.

I am from Ohio and DeWine Blackwell and alot of other Reps are finished due to Rep corruption in this state. It is so simple to understand this. Dems also out number Reps here. Case closed! Neocon fantasyland is over! Ohio will be a BLUE state for many years to come

Care what you ask for Jackson this is from http://www.politics1.com/

TENNESSEE. The latest Rasmussen Reports poll shows the Republicans are pushing further ahead of Congressman Harold Ford Jr. (D) in the open US Senate seat race. Former Congressman Ed Bryant (R) leads Ford by a 45% to 36% vote. Former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker (R) runs ahead of Ford by a much closer vote of 39% to 35%. Former Congressman Van Hilleary (R) leads Ford by a 43% to 35% vote. As this appears to be a trend, I'm close to moving this one from "Leans GOP" to the "GOP Favored" category.
Posted by Ron Gunzburger - 03.07.06 | Permalink | COMMENTS (165)

Re TN -- Rasmussen has Ford losing ground over the last couple polls against all three Republicans. Ford clearly still has a shot at winning, but right now he IS clearly the under dog. It will be interesting to see whether his ads on the ports issue show will improve his numbers. While I'm not a huge fan of some of his more conservative positions, the guys is clearly a smart and able politician. I hope he pulls off the upset.

Hey, anonymous writer who posted this:

"Recent polls have shown Ford going down against all the possible rep. My guess is his ads just reminded the rest of the state that he's black and that just doesn't fly in large chunks of TN."

What polls exactly are you referring to? Because I don't believe they exist. I've been watching polls on that race for months and have never seen a single one that showed Ford going down against all 3 candidates. The worst he's done this year has been a point or 2 behind Corker in one poll, but still within the MOE. He's been consistently ahead of the other 2 candidates and often polls in front or even ahead of Corker.

I think you're making things up. I'm using my real name. You should use yours.

Ford is actually going down in polls against all possible rep. My guess is his ads just remind the rest of the state he's black, which doesn't help him in large parts of TN.

I keep seeing comments about Webb v. Allen, as if that's already set in stone. Webb has to get the Democratic nomination before that match-up can happen; and there was already a candidate on the Democratic side, Harris Miller, when Webb entered the race. Let's not get the cart before the horse.

Blancotrader,

Ensign is vulnerable based on his SUSA approval ratings and Jack Carter's entry into the race got me pretty interested, too. But each of the Nevada Senate polls I've seen show Carter polling in the 20's. I have a hard time taking his campaign seriously until that changes. I'll go out on a limb and say that the Carter name gets him absolutely nothing in terms of votes in the general election. He's going to have to work for those votes just as much as any retired businessman running his first political campaign would. Bear in mind that Carter is not the only horse in that primary race.

As for Virginia, it's a second-tier race right now because we've yet to really see what Webb's campaign is made of. He's still putting together his staff and doing his initial fundraising. Allen polls *very* dangerously, taking only 49% for reelection a few weeks ago. If I were in Liddy Dole's shoes, I'd be abandoning those doomed candidates in NY and MD immediately to shovel that money and talent into Allen's campaign. He's clearly beatable and Webb is a dream first-time candidate for the Dems, but it's too early to call this a sure top-tier race. If Webb can raise the big money for his primary and not fall flat on his face, then I'd call it a 50/50 chance of a Dem pick-up.

Remember that there's only one competetive House race in VA this year, and Phil Kellam can easily finance his own campaign. So Virginia Dems can focus just about every penny against George Allen. Mark Warner and Tim Kaine together can raise anything Webb needs. In the GE, this race is unlikely to come down to either man being outspent. The question is how Webb will avoid letting Allen define him. Somehow, I can't imagine that the man who resigned from the Reagan administration because Reagan wasn't hawkish enough for him - the same man who took on Oliver North in a legedary fist fight at Annapolis - is likely to be anything resembling a pushover in a real down-and-dirty fight with Allen.

If I was going to name a 6th race that screams 'Democratic pick-up' right now, it would be Tennessee. Everyone got used to saying that TN is a red state and Dems have no chance in that race. But for many months now Harold Ford has been polling ahead or even with each of his potential Republican adversaries. We're not talking about a single anomaly - this is poll after poll all year. Harold Ford is a tested, experienced campaigner with solid funding who doesn't make amateur missteps. That should meet any reasonable definition of a top-tier race.

Ohio-
DeWine may be breathing a little easier but still hasn't cracked 50% and has only risen from 43% to 46% in the last three months. Brown has taken a hit among Dems because of fall out from the Hackett hatchet job as he exited. Time will determine whether this is a temporary bump in the road (which I believe it is) as Hackett fades into the background.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/February%202006/Ohio%20Senate%20February.htm

And if are going to use this one poll (Rasmussen) as the measuring stick for now with the Senate race, then Blackwell isn't even a lock for the primary yet.

Stickland leads head to head 47 - 35% (beating Petro 44 - 37%)and has more money than either.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/February%202006/Ohio%20Governor%20February.htm

Recent polls have shown Ford going down against all the possible rep. My guess is his ads just reminded the rest of the state that he's black and that just doesn't fly in large chunks of TN.

Recent polls have shown Ford going down against all the possible rep. My guess is his ads just reminded the rest of the state that he's black and that just doesn't fly in large chunks of TN.

Sujay:
I was just going to comment that I haven't seen any recent numbers on Dewine-Brown. Have you? What? From whom?

The Dewine campaign is genuinely worried about the base and is working on changing their opinion. He continues to get low marks from the grassroots conservative but they have time to come to grips with the possibility of "Senator Brown" which should bring them back to their senses.

On Saturday April 1, Senator Dewine will be the keynote speaker for the Lorain County GOP Annual Lincoln Day dinner. This will take place in Avon, OH, Sherrod Brown's hometown. Prior to the dinner will be a highroller fundraiser for the Senator.

Still too early to know expected turnout but anything below 200 would be a real slap. Keep in mind that LoCo is in NEOH which differs from SEOH which is supposed to be hard-core conservative.

We Paleo- Retro-, Neo- and Ex-Cons up north in the 13th District know Serrod well enough to know that we will work our butts-off to ensure Brown retires to private life after December, hopefully out of state.

If the Dems want to take back the Senate (or the House, for that matter) they need only adopt the following 1-word theme: 'oversight.'

It's checks-and-balances stupid. The Dems need to make clear that maintaining one-party rule rubber-stamps Bush.

Let's see if they get it.

Seems to me the post-Katrina landscape means that Texas has quite a few more Dem voters who hate GOP do-nothing House/Senate members, so Kay Bailey better not count her tumbleweeds before they've rolled against the wire fence, if you catch my drift.

Born in Texas, unlike a certain red commie in the White House.

1. Re: Penn., How does the fix claim that Casey wins by "a scintilla"? I'm not from Pa., but Casey's a big name in a (light) blue state. Santorum, in contrast, has become a nationally ridiculed extremist (seen his book?), whom I see getting votes only outside the large metro areas. He may be a Republican, but he no Heinz, Specter, or Thornburgh.

2. Re: Tenn., I remain flummoxed that this is even in the top ten. I'm not from Tenn. either, but the idea of a Black Democrat (though a respected one) winning a statewide race in Tennessee? Sounds crazy to me. Al Gore, a white native son, from a big political family, couldn't even carry the state in 2000.

3. I AM from Ohio, and remain equally non-plussed about this state's high ranking. As Barry and Rick from Cincy correctly point out, DeWine is here to stay. Forget any perceived "Hackett effect." DeWine, though I'm personally not thrilled about it, wins on his own merits. He's a moderate, with plently of name recognition, and is as far from the Ohio GOP scandals (figuratively and literally) as an Ohio Republican can get. As such, he'll garner many independent votes and most Republicans. And while the disaffected far-right Republicans might sit out, but they're certainly not voting for Sherrod. Recent polling supports this view, as DeWine is widening his lead over Sherrod.

Speaking of politicians who would be sitting in cubicles were it not for accidents of birth...

For a republican to suggest that someone's not fit for office just because they're incompetent but happen to come from an accomplished lineage is like a democrat trying to impeach politicians for extramarital affairs.

One that just might sneak in is the Virginia race. George Allen's numbers are dropping, and with then entrance of James Webb in to the race, it will get pretty hot in the Commonwealth! Webb brings lots of cred, already has the support of Republican mods. Watch this one closely!

Rigged Diebold machines, felony culled voter lists, neocons and their supreme court minions, blind faith fundamentalist born agains, corporate oligarchs, national security paranoids --- all voting GOP.

And it WON'T EFFIN MATTER!!!
Not even disorganized cowardly DC Dems and DINOs can stop it.

There is a political tidal wave of change coming to America.

It will at least match the change of the '94 election,
possibly '74 and maybe '64, and if the economy tanks...we'll see election levels ala 1932.

My prediction for '06 --60 house seats, 10 senate seats for Dems.
Then no impeachment, just a lot of congressional investigations and vetos and a few overrides with suppoort of GOP Senators up in 2008.

Andrew - if I worked for Santorum's campaign, I would never admit he might lose. But if you're going to be for Casey, you might consider learning something positive about him so you can form a cogent argument.

AndyR - the race is not over, but Santorum's 40% in the polls is very bad news if you prefer him as I do. A couple things to remember: 1. Rendell trailed Casey by a wider margin in the 2002 Democratic primary, beat the living hell out of him on TV (saying even meaner things than I did; Ed is no shrinking violet), and won easily. 2. Casey has won some easy statewide races against underfunded Republicans. He has never had $25 million and an effective grassroots machine work against him.

Sorry if what I said offended you, but as you pointed out, you don't know much about Casey. I do. It's true. Many Democrats will admit it (most also will vote for him regardless).

This is why I say if Santorum can somehow make the race about Casey, he has a shot. Right now, it is about Santorum, and if it stays that way, Casey wins, and Patty Murray is no longer America's dumbest Senator.

I'm also interested in the Webb campaign. When Allen is already trotting out the "liberal" label, you know the Republicans are worried about this one.

you can take both New Jersey and Maryland off this list. Washington belongs in at number 9 as Cantwell will have a fight. There are several states like Nevada Virginia and Arizona that belong on this list for now, because of the climate against Republicans, that belong on the list over New Jersey and Maryland. Neither Steele nor Kean stands a chance in those states in this anti-republican climate.

I don't see how Harold Ford Jr. can be so high on the list due to "Republican missteps in other states." That's illogical. Despite the well-publicized results of some generic preference polls, I just don't see this huge anti-GOP wave quite yet. Let's be honest...if Bush's approval ratings were at 50% or slightly over, the top five on this list would still be in the top five for the same reasons they are currently there. I've never understood how some pundits believe that a macroanalysis of congressional races paints a truer picture than a microanalysis.

If my history is correct, Tennesseans haven't elected a senator from Memphis since 1946. Thus, Ford doesn't start off with much of a base of popular support, and in a general election Ford's liberalism will undoubtedly prove to be more of a liability statewide than Hilleary or Bryant's conservatism.

Doesn't Memphis have a port on the Mississippi?

Dewine may win but if Iraq and health care gets worse, republican heads are going to role come November. Steele has zero chance

otherside123.blogspot.com
www.onlinejournal.com
www.takingaim.info
www.wsws.org

Let's get real about our rigged voting system
By Bev Conover

Writer after writer keeps talking about how we are just going to march into the polls come November and vote the monsters out. If only that were true.

The system is rigged, folks. Just like oil and water, computers and voting don't mix. And that includes touch screens, optically-scanned ballots, even punch cards that are tabulated by computers. Worse, the voting equipment is in the hands of partisan private firms and they deny you the right to see the code, claiming it is proprietary information.

Adding so-called "verifiable" paper receipts to touch screens would be meaningless, because a handful of scumbags still can change the results just enough to give their candidates a win without triggering a hand recount.

Is this so hard to understand? It must be, because we, Bev Harris, Lynn Landes Bob Fitrakis and others have been screaming about this elephant in the room for nearly six years.

Bev Harris and her Black Box Voting team have proved in state after state how easily computers can be rigged. Lynn Landes' voting rights lawsuit has made its way to the US Supreme Court (Docket No. 05-930), where she intends to represent herself.

"I tried to get civil rights organizations interested in this case, but had no luck. Their disregard for this issue is incredible. It's clear to me that without direct access to a physical ballot and meaningful transparency in the process, our elections have no integrity whatsoever," Landes said.

Fitrakis and three other attorneys, who filed a 1awsuit questioning the results of the 2004 presidential election in Ohio, found themselves the target of Ohio Attorney General James Petro, who sought stiff legal sanctions against the four for filing a "political nuisance" lawsuit.

In a Feb. 3, 2005, Free Press article, Steve Rosenfeld and Harvey Wasserman wrote, "In documents filed with the Ohio Supreme Court, Petro’s office charges that the citizen contestors -- Ohio voters -- and their attorneys lacked evidence and proceeded in bad faith to file the challenge. Petro says the election challenge was a 'political nuisance' lawsuit, and as such, the legal team should be fined -- personally -- many thousands of dollars."

That ploy backfired on Petro, when more documents were entered into evidence, including the 102-page Status Report of the House Judiciary Democratic Staff entitled "What Went Wrong in Ohio?", further exposing the 2004 skullduggery. While Petro's sanction motion was denied by the Ohio Supreme Court, the voters lost again when the case was dismissed.

But instead of remedying the situation, the legislature passed and Gov. Robert Taft, the only sitting Ohio governor ever convicted of a crime, signed into law on Jan. 31 a draconian bill (HB 3), which Fitakris noted in a Dec. 7 article, "HB3's most publicized provision will require positive identification before casting a vote. But it also opens voter registration activists to partisan prosecution, exempts electronic voting machines from public scrutiny, quintuples the cost of citizen-requested statewide recounts and makes it illegal to challenge a presidential vote count or, indeed, any federal election result in Ohio. When added to the recently passed HB1, which allows campaign financing to be dominated by the wealthy and by corporations, and along with a Rovian wish list of GOP attacks on the ballot box, democracy in Ohio could be all but over."

So what chance do you think Fitrakis, who is now a Green Party candidate for Ohio governor, has against the winner of the GOP primary -- either Petro or Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell, the man at the center of the 2004 vote horror? Ditto for whoever wins the Democratic primary.

While the Bushistas have learned to be a bit more careful in the wake of the 2000 Florida debacle, stuff happens, as Donald Rumsfeld would say. Perhaps Florida in 2000 and Ohio in 2004 were diversions to keep people from looking at the skullduggery that went on everywhere. For example, George W. Bush received an extra 100,000 votes -- "phantom votes," as Chris Floyd called them -- in Alaska in 2004.

Floyd wrote, " A good example of how this control really works can be found in Alaska. There, the state Democratic Party has long been seeking an audit of some of the 2004 Diebold-counted returns, which produced a series of strange anomalies – including awarding George W. Bush an extra 100,000 votes that turned out to be phantoms. First, state officials blocked the request because that information – the vote count of a public election – was a "company secret" that belonged exclusively to Diebold, Friedman reports. Then they decided that the returns could be examined – but only on the condition that Diebold and the Republican officials be allowed to "manipulate the data" before it was released. In the end, even this tainted transparency was too much for the Bushist ballot crunchers; late last month, Alaska officials suddenly declared that examining the returns would pose a dire but unspecified "security risk" to the state.

Yet, writers blat on and on about what the Democrats need to do to win, as if the Democratic cretins were any better than the Republican cretins, and how "progressives" of any stripe need support in the primaries and general election.

Meanwhile, the Bushes and their criminal allies continue on their merry way, pulling off "miraculous" win after "miraculous" win. Hey, God is on their side and if the exit polls say the other guy or gal should have won, declare the exit polls erroneous.

Some pundits are even foolish enough to think that a little bribery scandal spells the end of Rep. Katherine Harris' bid for a US Senate seat. Harris, who, as Florida's secretary of state, pulled every dirty trick in the book to hand the Sunshine State's electoral votes to George W. in 2000, was rewarded with a seat in the US House of Representatives. So why not a Senate seat? Harris, unlike Tom DeLay, hasn't yet been indicted, and an indictment didn't stop DeLay from "winning" his primary bid against three opponents. Harris will be gone only if the powers that be, not the voters, want her gone.

Elections, for most people, used to be a relatively simple thing. They took a paper ballot into a voting booth and penciled an X next to the names of the candidates they favored. The paper ballot was then dropped into a locked box. At the end of the voting day, the box was opened and the votes were counted one by one. Most states even allowed the public to witness the counting.

Sure, it was slow and, depending on the length of a ballot, the election board workers tended to gripe. For the voters, though, election nights used to be filled with anticipation and excitement as the results trickled in. So the question comes down to do we want accurate and honest vote counts or fast and crooked vote counts?
If it's fast and crooked, stay with easily rigged computers. If it is accurate and honest, demand a return to paper ballots, which make it much harder to steal a statewide, congressional or presidential election.

Odd as it may seem, the Democrats have a better chance to retake the House than capture a majority in the Senate. Remarkable when factoring in gerrymandering but that's the political landscape at the moment.

http://www.intrepidliberaljournal.blogspot.com

To follow up: DeWine will get every Republican vote in this state, and enough votes from moderate Dems like me that it won't even be very close.

I agree with Barry. I continue to shake my head when I see DeWine in the top 5 week after week. There's no denying that Bob Taft is the laughingstock of this state. But I don't think he's tainted other Republicans. I think he is seen as just a hapless buffoon. Republican Ken Blackwell is the next governor of Ohio. You can book that one. Certainly my opinion is influence by where I live. This town got pretty excited a couple of weeks ago when GWB came in to raise funds for DeWine. Maybe the North part of the state feels quite a bit differently about DeWine than the Southern half does. But if Brown beats DeWine, I will be pretty surprised.

Webb will defeat Allen and no mention?

Mark, I live in Ohio and do not see Dewine being in any trouble whatsoever. For Dewine to be in trouble he would have lose his conservative base and that ain't going to happen my friend. I disagreed with Dewine over Alaska drilling and his agreement over judicial nominees but I got over it. We know whats at stake and will not let Sherrod in the game. The last time I saw Sherrod Brown, Colin Powell was making him look at an idiot while testifying at the committee.

Cantwell is in serious trouble and if she (and others) doesn't know it yet, she will soon enough. Can't believe you don't have her on your list, but trust me, she'll get there (and has earned it).

D'accord! Bush will get creamed if he runs again!

Mark,
Cantwell may well have a tough race on her hands but in a BLUE state like Washington I just don't see her losing. Take that with the whole Ports deal which I am sure will play big in Seattle and I think she is pretty safe.
If you think about money the republicans can't spend a ton in Washington either without droping Santorum or Chafey (TV ads in RI and PENN are high). I think the Republican Senate Comm will put the money in holding onto seats that are more secure(Missouri, Ohio, and Tenn) and basically right off RI and Penn. That way they keep the majority which in the end is what they want.

I'm with you, Bo! I've had it with boola-boola for the time being! How about Schumer, isn't he an honors graduate from Bronx College?

I'm sorry to say it but it's time we got some Princeton persons in high elective office. Anyone with me on this?

Andrew is right. That was a bit of a punch in the gut on Casey. I don't really know anything about Casey's abilities but if he has a 10+ point lead in the polls now then this race is already over. Not to mention that most people in PA will be focused on the Governors race leaving Casey/Santorum to second fiddle.
Also how many independents in a blue state might say vote for Swann (gov) but balance thier vote with a vote for Casey. I don't know if there is a real term for these folks but I call them see-saw voters.

NEVER underestimate Jack Carter, just as people in 1976 should NEVER have underestimated his father.

It's still extremely early in the election cycle out here in Nevada; I don't believe the primary is until around September.

If the national Democrats put in a pile of money in this state, which I think they will, given Jack Carter's connections, Ensign could be in for an upset. I don't think his people are all that confident he, a mediocre senator at best, will be re-elected.

DeWine is in trouble here in Ohio, as is the entire GOP ticket. Brown is uninspired but may come in with the wave.

On the other hand, I hear Maria Cantwell is in more trouble in Washington than is generally assumed. And I expect a disproportionate amount of Democratic money to go to defeat Santorum in Pennsylvania, given the liberal obsession with him. This means less money to assist other candidates.

I'm from Texas and agree with the Radnofsky post..she hasn't a snowball's chance of besting Kay Bailey, who by all rights isn't a bad Senator in my mind(I'm a democrat and have voted for her in every race she's ever run!!!).

There is a question I have, though, and a comment as well. While I know the Ensign-Carter race in Nevada will likely not make the top ten any time soon, my gut tells me if the planets line up just right, Jack Carter could pull the upset of the election cycle. Nobody will work harder than he will and this writer learned long ago NEVER to underestimate a Carter. And, he's running against a very mediocre incumbent, one who is attached at the hip to a very unpopular and ethically-challenged President. Those are the comments..the question would be, does anybody agree with me??

Silent Cal: What a great post. One question - how long have you been working for Rick Santorum's reelection campaign?

How about Virginia? Seantor Allen has strong support across the state, but Miller is well funded, and Webb brings strong credentials. Any chance of this getting interesting?

To complicate his chances of winning in Maryland, Michael Steele has opted to completely wrap himself in the warm embrace of the Republican national party machine - bringing in Rove and Card for fundraisers. If he thinks this blue state (with a 2:1 ratio of registered Democrats to Republicans) and it's Democratic nominee (as you said, most likely Ben Cardin) are going to let that slip by, he's sadly mistaken. This race belongs, at best, at #13 on your Top Ten.