Viagra is a prescription drug used to treat erection difficulties, such as erectile dysfunction (ED). http://genvia.urlcutter.com/

Propecia (Finasteride) was originally a drug called Proscar, which was used to treat and reduce mens prostate conditions such as benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH). http://propecian.urlcutter.com/

I think two races that have not appeared on the Fix are two in western New York, Tom Reynolds in the NY 26th, and freshman Rep. Randy Kuhl. Reynolds only won 56-44 in 2004, the lowest re-election margain of any NY Representative. And with this climate, and the personal wealth of Democrat Jack Davis, Reynolds could lose his seat. Kuhl is in a race agaisnt a former Naval officer, and if the race turns out anything like Fitzpatrick in Pennsylvania, it could be close. I think western NY has the potential to offer some shocks on election day, and I think the Fix should do some more digging to guage the potential of this.

Meridia is targeted for the seriously obese and not for those who are looking to lose a few pounds. http://www.buymeridia.bbfast.com/

Obama is a player, no doubt, but he is too young and does not have enough experience to jump into the mix. Need to see him under fire before America can know if he is a Presidential candidate. Sure, he is a smooth talking guy, but that is an awesome office to hold. Time will give us the answers and there has not been enough yet...

Charleston WV TV Market is actually the Huntington-Charleston market and it does cover all of eastern Kentucky as well as southeastern Ohio and central and southern West Virginia. Attributing the Charleston Media buy to KY-04 is therefore most likely the correct read. HTS-CHS also covers the SE Ohio District and WV-02 and WV-03, but Steve is correct to say WV-01 isn't reached in any meaningful way.

apparently not, mindless pinko was my definition for a conservative of Viva's stature.

"Sorry, you're dealing with a conservative, not a mindless pinko.

....$50.00, 3-1 odds now on Blackwell" - Vivian

Can someone tell me what the difference is between a conservative and mindless pinko?

You gutless libs are the ones who talk of certain victory this November and yet want an even up bet. Sorry, you're dealing with a conservative, not a mindless pinko.

$50.00, 3-1 odds now on Blackwell
$50.00 even money on Dewine.

I'm not the one shooting off my mouth that we're going to win any specific race, you lefties are though.
Now who won't put your money where your mouth is?

Is KY-1 just "a sleeper"? Am I crazy to think incumbent Ed Whitfield, who defeated incumbent Tom Barlow in the 1994 Republican sweep, can now be swept out by that same Tom Barlow (major, major name recognition) in the Democratic sweep of 2006. Why is this race on no one's radar screen? We KY-1 Dems sure do hope some of that 11 weeks of Evansville time will be coming our way, because Evansville is where we get our local TV. Whitfield's got millions to spend, of course, but people around here are as fed up with the incompetents and rubber stamps in D.C. as the rest of the country, or damn near anyway.

Thanks Ohio guy. Hell, I'd take an even money bet on the Ohio Senate race, but I don't think you can find a right-winger who'll put their money where their mouth is.

SR - nice factual smackdown of bhoomes' evidence-free rants. Good read.

Oh, and those Ohio polls look beeeeee-yuuuuuu-ti-ful! I have to say though I am not surprised. Ohio is a very middle-of-the-road state, as I am sure you already know. Ohio does not usually elect extremist ideologues of either party to statewide office, it is almost always the more moderate candidate that wins, and this year that candidate is without a shred of doubt Ted Strickland. Blackwell brings nothing but hateful anti-gay rhetoric and fire and brimstone "religious" condemnation of those who are not like himself and his wingnut evangelical friends like Rod Parsely and Pat Robertson. Ohio is not going to fall for that again. But there I go again preaching to the choir.

Where's Vivian? I want an even-money bet on the Ohio governor's race just like you do.

http://www.dispatch.com/?story=dispatch/2006/07/23/20060723-A1-01.html

These independent poll results are dedicated to Gimmeabreak. They show that Ted Strickland is ahead of Ken Blackwell by 20 points in the Ohio Governor's race, while Sherrod Brown is ahead of Mike DeWine by 8 points in the Ohio Senate race. This poll is from the Columbus Dispatch, whose polls are widely respected for their accuracy despite the paper's very conservative editorial and reporting bias.

I wanted to put this in a separate comment in case the Post censors it, but Spiro Agnew's name is an anagram for "grow a penis".

Try it. It works.

Gimmeabreak, your post doesn't really make much sense at all.

1) You refer to "the angry left". How is the left any angrier than the right? Those abortion opponents, gay marriage fighters, flag "protectors", TV evangelists (9/11, Hurricane Katrina and the 2500+ dead soldiers in Iraq are punishments from God?), gun nuts and Minutemen don't seem too happy to me. Is Pat Toomey not angry? Is Steven Laffey not angry? Is Rick Santorum not always angry? Is Tom Tancredo a barrel of laughs? Does Fred Phelps seem like a fun chum to hang around with? Is Ann Coulter cheerful enough to pay to entertain as a clown at your child's birthday party?

2) What is your evidence that we feel like we're "movin on" just because of opinion discussion with other liberals and allegedly biased news coverage? Have you examined any poll results lately? Perused the analyses done by the various independent, experienced experts out there?

3) You allege that the media takes its cues from some sort of left-wing monolith. Please provide examples and/or evidence.

You claim that Chris Cilizza cites no independent polls. Many of Chris' posts here include links to independent polls. Go read the one on Lieberman and Lamont, for example. There's a lot more room for poll results in the comments than the original post, and you should find enough there to make your head spin. RMill alone is a continuous pipeline of independent poll data here, and my own blog has many links to any poll that comes across my email or that I can get my hands on. You'd have to deny reality altogether to examine current poll data on the whole and not conclude that Democrats are quite likely to gain House, Senate, and Governor seats this year. A long list of Republicans has already acknowledged as much (including the White House, by preparing contingency plans for a Democratic Congress). The vast majority of surveys lately have been good news for Democrats.

4) Trying to return to your original topic, what good would it do Democrats or liberals to pretend a non-competitive race was actually very close? Why would we WANT to waste our time and money on a race we really have no chance of winning? What evidence do you have that VA-2 is NOT competitive right now? Do you think Charlie Cook, Chris Cilizza, Chuck Todd, MoveOn.org, the Washington Post, the DCCC, every liberal in America, and the men's room attendant at the Trilateral Commission are in collusion on a grand conspiracy to pretend that one freshman Congresswoman is more endangered than she is?

5) Conservatives sit quietly and keep their powder dry until election day?? I suppose you've missed all the posts on this blog from Karen/Tina, bhoomes, VivaBushOH04, FH, and other Republicans and supporters of theirs who beat their chests as much as I and my liberal and Democratic colleagues do. I suppose Tucker Carlson, Sean Hannity, Bill O'Reilly, Rush Limbaugh, Ann Coulter, George Will, Cal Thomas, Mona Charen, Tom Reynolds, Elizabeth Dole, Karl Rove, Dick Cheney, William Raspberry, Pat Buchanan, Gordon Liddy, and Charles Krauthammer have all been silent on conservative or Republican election prospects for this year? We're not in the days of the silent majority anymore. Nor nattering nabobs of negativism. But if you want to continue in the path of a crooked Republican using 1968 strategy and rhetoric, you are by all means free to do so. Just don't expect a free ride when you make wild, irrational arguments or accusations.

I don't know much about bhoomes, but he doesn't know the difference between "there" and "their". Could be his views on politics are wrong too.

Mr. Sandwich-

you make my point! the angry left is in there pushing and feels that they're movin' on because a lot of us aren't going to dialogue or make our opinions known, we just keep the powder dry 'til the polls open. the media picks up these races selectively (notice no independent polling in Chris' piece) because they take their story cues from the left, they are no longer journalists, they just work for companies that sound like they must have journalists working for them! 9 out of 10 times, at the least, districts like these with structural advantages to one side don't flip, the talk just keeps the nattering nabobs' lips flapping through the summer.

but you are right on one thing, if the whole House does flip, it definitely won't be as big a surprise as 1994. any early rumblings in that year went unreported by a press whose worldview is so saturated by the culture that is the American left that they wouldn't see anything they don't want to see. in that, they'd be just like the rest of us, except for this act of cheerleading and sensationalizing issues that they care about (rather than just giving us the day's events), all the while swearing to their objectivity in such a self-delusional, sanctimonious way.

The city Duckworth lives in is half in the district and half out, so she isn't pulling a Keyes.

Here's a gateway to a bunch of interesting info on state legislatures: http://www.ncsl.org/programs/legman/elect/partycomp.htm

I stand corrected, there aren't 10,000 state legislators; merely 7328! Oy!

Some state legislatures I would watch this year off the top of my head: WA both, OR House, MN House, NY Senate, IN one or both, MT both, PA, MI or WI maybe, and I think IA.

Just for the record, I want to reiterate my strong belief that state legislatures should be unicameral.

I think the 2008 presidential race is quite relevant, but I've also said here before that more attention ought to be paid to state legislative races. There's a practical problem there, in that there are 50 states with 99 legislative bodies, and a total of over 10,000 state legislators in the country (check out http://www.ncsl.org ). However, it might be possible to look at those 99 bodies (or the 98 partisan ones) and rank the top 10-20 as to their likeliness of changing hands this fall. I would be all for replacing every other presidential line with a state legislative one. I think Chris has admitted that he's a little WH08 obsessed though. ;) Everyone has their idiosyncracies.

Ohio guy: Cool. I grew up in the 15th and went to college in the 12th. Yeah, the Rs in the legislature really screwed up Kaptur's district last redistricting, but I cited it above as one they packed a lot of Dems into so they could make surrounding ones safer for Rs. I remember a few years ago when ODP put up billboards in NW OH saying "Paul and Karen Gillmor, if you lived in your districts, you'd be home by now". That's when she was a state senator. He's still in the US House of course, doing little of anything as best I can tell...

http://sandwichrepair.blogspot.com

The PA-7 (where Joe Sestak is running) is an interesting district. Republicans enjoy a 2 to 1 advantage in registration. All the same, the PA-7 has been going Democratic for President and Governor since Clinton's '92 election.

The question, then, is when the Democrats are going to break through and start winning on a local level. 2006 looks like the year to do it. Curt Weldon is very vulnerable to Joe Sestak, and there are also promising state races. Bryan Lentz, an Iraq veteran and former prosecuotr, is poised to beat a 28-year Republican incumbent State Rep.

The PA-7 is definitely a place to watch.

Sandwich Repairman - I'm from Toledo, I now live in Columbus - in Deborah Pryce's district actually - which is great b/c I get to vote for Kilroy this November. If I were still in Toledo my vote would not matter really b/c Dem Rep. Marcy Kaptur (OH-09, basically Toledo and Sandusky and everything inbetween) regularly gets reelected with 65% of the vote.

To dctalk: Why can't the problems with voting machines be 'fixed'? Obviously, they could --if anyone in power wanted them fixed. Since every electronic voting machine in this country is controlled by companies with Republican CEO's who are Bush Pioneers, they don't have a lot of interest in 'fixing' anything -- other than elections. There's nothing inexplicable about it.

"How do things look in the Melancon vs. Romero race in southern Louisiana? Will the race be competitive?"

It's hard to tell. It's a swing district, and because of Katrina, nobody knows how many people will vote. The results of the N.O. Mayoral election were a good sign for Melancon, because Nagin's win indicates that fewer people have completely abandoned the area permanantly than most people thought.

I concur with Mouse. Let's suspend coverage of the 2008 Presidential race until after the November election; unless something truly significant happens.

I think the discussion above is evidence that there are enough 2006 races to keep good discussions alive.

Chris, all you need to keep the 2006 material lively is to provide some variations on the theme. As the clock ticks down to November, they will do that on their own.

The 2008 Hilary/McCain/Warner/Bayh... material has become endlessly boring because it is endless without any substance; and until the 2006 races are completed it is only marginally significant.

Why can't the problems w/voter machinery accuracy and the ability to honesty audit them be fixed? It should be clean, quick and simple. Otherwise, it's a glaring and philosophically inexplicable failure in the American democratic process.

As I understand it, The Fix reports on the 2006 Senate, Gubernatorial, House races and the 2008 Presidential race on successive Fridays.
The Presidential race has nowhere near the immediacy of the other 3, and I suggest that you suspend that commentary until after the November 2006 election. That would allow you to report on the other 3 races every 3 weeks for the next 3 months or, since the House races seem the most fluid, you could report on them every other week.
How do others feel?
Also, is any site offering trends and predictions on the 2006 state legislative races?

RMill:The party also reserved time to advertise in districts held by Democratic Reps. Melissa Bean of Illinois (IL 8), Leonard Boswell of Iowa (IA 3) and Alan Mollohan of West Virginia (WV 2). Republicans have signaled they will target all three for defeat.

As a West Virginian, I can tell you right now that Alan Mollohan is in Rep. for WV-1, not WV-2. The seat is currently held by Shelley Moore Capito and being challenged by Mike Callaghan, a former Democratic Party chair, Sec. of WV Dept. of Environmental Protection and federal prosecutor. Ads in Charleston would reach a VERY small portion of WV-1. If they were really worried, they would be running ads in Wheeling and Clarksburg, and possibly Parksersburg. Ad time is much cheaper in the 1st and the 2nd, so I don't think the party is that concerned about Chris Wakim's chances (which seem to predicate on the hope that the GOP really finds some dirt on Mollohan juicier than the argument that because someone's wealth jumped in two years [never mind that his wealthy father died in that time] that he must be crooked.)

Ah, fair enough. I do indeed count Bernie Sanders as a Democrat, since he votes for the Democratic leader for speaker and would count in the Democratic Senate caucus. The DCCC has even helped his campaigns rather than Democratic ones at times. But this difference would account for the 2 seat discrepancy in our results.

Btw, where in Ohio are you?

Sandwich Repairman - You're counting Bernie Sanders as a democrat. I don't, although I realize he caucuses with the Dems, but his seat is nonetheless not currently in the Dem column. If every race on Chuck Todd's top 50 list switched parties (including indie to dem, assuming Welch wins), it would therefore be a net gain of 28 seats(39-11=28).

I'd add Mark Kirk (IL-10) to my list above.

I have not seen any polls on MN-6, but I would be very interested to. I definitely think this is a race to watch--the seat has only been Republican since Kennedy won it in 2000, and Wetterling is a strong candidate. She's clearly matured since last cycle. Plus the Gov. and Sen. races in MN this year should trend Democratic. MN is more Democratic than its current 4D-4R House delegation would suggest.

I cannot imagine that Regula faces any real threat in OH-16.

The dynamic Will points out--Katrina evacuees voting in Texas--is a good, legitimate wild card. How many are there? Where are they? How geographically concentrated are they? How many will turn out to vote? There's no question the political landscape of both LA and TX was permanently changed by the aftermath of the hurricane. Just how remains to be seen. It would seem like there's potential for Democrats to do better in TX if there are enough evacuees geographically concentrated who do turn out. By the same token, does that leave greater New Orleans more Republican? Or just that LA loses a House seat in the next reapportionment?

Gimmeabreak: You do realize that MoveOn already ran a round or 2 of ads in VA-2? Cook just moved this race from "Leans Republican" to "Tossup". The Post did an article a few weeks ago on how competitive this race has become. I don't think there's any conspiracy to trick people into thinking VA-2 is more competitive than it is. No one believed Republicans would take back Congress in 1994 until it happened.

Ohio guy: I follow Chuck Todd's rankings too, thanks for looking them up and posting the aggregate numbers! (although 38-12=26, not 28 ;)

TLSFederalist: The Constitution only requires that House members live in the states they represent; they don't have to live in their districts (Before the Civil Rights Act, many states--including IL--didn't have districts and just elected Congresspeople statewide). By custom and popular pressure, the vast majority of House members do live in their districts.

Overall, I have to say there are a bunch of Republican incumbents (Lamar Smith TX-21, Mike Ferguson NJ-7, Pat Tiberi OH-12, Steve LaTourette OH-14, the freshman in PA-15, maybe Kenny Hulshof MO-9 or Mike Rogers MI-8) who based on their districts and approval ratings, and in Ferguson's case other random foibles, ought to be more vulnerable, but where the DCCC really failed to recruit good candidates. In a strong wave year, weak candidates will win who normally wouldn't. But that leaves us vulnerable in those seats down the line. We definitely need to be building farm teams to help future candidate recruitment. I'm glad to see groups like Wellstone Action and Democracy Alliance starting to do that.

Hey, Mr. Fix. I notice you've quit talking smack about Zack Space. Trying to cover your tracks, huh?

How do things look in the Melancon vs. Romero race in southern Louisiana? Will the race be competitive?

Another indication of DCCC priorities is their red to blue campaign-

Red to Blue Candidates

Charlie Wilson (OH-06)

Posted by: RMill | July 21, 2006 04:39 PM

why is this district a "red to blue" candidate? Strickland is a Democrat. I also think this seat is definitely leans Democratic. The Republicans targeted this seat after Wilson screwed up the filings. He regrouped and ran a great write in campaign. Wilson got more people to write-in his name than the total number of people that voted in the Republican primaries in that district. With Strickland on the top of the ticket, this district should come out for Strickland and by extension Charlie Wilson.

Lamar Smith (TX-21) has a 31% favorable; other number leave much to be desired for him (I like it this way). John Courage has more than a good chance of knocking him out. And he seems like less of a bad guy than most politician.

As a couple of you mentioned, Dr. Victoria Wulsin
is polling 44-44 against Mean Jean Schmidt, whose
performance number(33) is lower than Bush's.

Do you know how remarkable that is? This district
was the reddest of the red until Paul Hackett came
within an ace of upsetting Schmidt last August 1.
He appealed to a lot of Republicans and independents.

On the other side of town, John Cranley is giving
Steve Chabot a good run, as well.

Don't forget, folks! In 1994, the GOP took 54
seats with their "Contract With (On?) America"
that they did not keep. I believe we will win a
lot more than the l5 we need to re-take the House
this year. There's a lot of anti-GOP anger
everywhere!

Correction on my post on Virginia 2d--My (poorly phrased) post implied 20% of the VA 2d black vote is strongly Democratic. What I should have said...African Americans are about 20% of the electorate and vote 80% plus Democratic in the 2d. Northampton County, for example, a conservative rural county, consistenly produces Democratic majorities in the rightish 2d as a result of this swing. Other (larger) counties are closer than they seem.

Notably, Thelma Drake has a tough time with "issues" here, as she replaced Ed Schrock, a conservative GOP rep who resigned when news reports surfaced that he was likely gay.

This district could really be in play with some help from from DCCC.

Tammy Duckworth is "legally qualified to seek election and hold office if elected" because all that is required is to be a resident of Illinois. Her opponent Peter Roskam previously ran for Congress in District 13, and lost to the Republican incumbant, Judy Biggert. Changing residencies for political gain is a fact of life - Texas resident Dick Cheny switched to Wyoming to run for VP; Alan Keyes moved to Illinois to run for Senate.

Chris,

Thank you for adding VA-02. Great point about the Kellam ad. But, more importantly, look at Drake's "puff" ad. She claims to be an independant voice as well. Even more astounding is her ad never mentions that she is a Republican!! A fact that would have never been missing from an ad in prior years. This intentional "oversight" should also be considered for your future lists.

I wouldn't ever say all career military are republicans. I know, I have several cousins who are career officers and although they once were republicans, they have all changed their affilitiations after serving in Iraq.

But frankly, don't you think that blind acceptance of authority d seems to be characteristic of modern republicanism? Seems to me that the last repubican pundit, for instance, who stood up for limited government and privacy rights was William Safire.

And most party regulars seem to feel that it's perfectly okay for the government to spy on them and to have access to their most intimiate secrets, their financial and medical records, and indeed to make decisions for them in these areas also.

It's only Dems who are making a fuss about that.

DCCC Ad Buy details

$30 M in 24 roughly districts

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060721/ap_on_el_ge/ad_wars_10

The Democratic targets include clusters of Republican-held seats in the Philadelphia area held by Reps. Jim Gerlach, Curt Weldon and Michael Fitzpatrick (PA 6,7,8), as well as the Ohio River Valley, where Reps. John Hostettler of Indiana (IN 8), Geoff Davis of Kentucky (KY 4)and Steve Chabot of Ohio (OH 1)can expect a protracted televised barrage.

Based on information available to date, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee intends to air ads for eight weeks in an attempt to defeat Rep. Heather Wilson of New Mexico (NM 1). Rep. Clay Shaw of Florida (FL 22) faces a particularly well-financed opponent, but he can also expect to face five weeks of Democratic-paid advertising.

Other targets include Reps. Dave Reichert of Washington (WA 8), Mike Sodrel of Indiana (IN 9)and Rob Simmons of Connecticut (CT 2).

Apart from Republican incumbents, Democrats intend to advertise in several GOP-held seats where lawmakers are retiring. They include districts held by Reps. Jim Kolbe in Arizona (AZ 8), Bob Beauprez in Colorado (CO 7), Jim Nussle in Iowa (IA 1), Mark Green in Wisconsin (WI 8)and Henry Hyde in Illinois (IL 6).

The party also reserved time to advertise in districts held by Democratic Reps. Melissa Bean of Illinois (IL 8), Leonard Boswell of Iowa (IA 3) and Alan Mollohan of West Virginia (WV 2). Republicans have signaled they will target all three for defeat.

For uncensored news please go to:

www.wsws.org
www.onlinejournal.com
www.takingaim.info
otherside123.blogspot.com

www.kurtnimmo.com

FOR IMMEDITATE RELEASE Contact: Jocco Baccus

July 18, 2006
678-520-2088

DIEBOLD ELECTRONIC MACHINES MALFUNCTION, VOTE FOR OTHER CANDIDATE

(Decatur) After one hour of voting, the McKinney campaign has received numerous calls that the voting machines are malfunctioning. Voters casting votes for McKinney are reportedly having their votes switched by the machines for Hank Johnson. This is not a new problem with Diebold machines. Lawyers for the campaign have been alerted and said that If this situation is not corrected, Cynthia McKinney for Congress will be forced to take additional measures.

"A McKinney representative confirmed for me that these reports have been coming in all morning," adds the blogger Joseph Cannon. "By every account, votes for Congresswoman McKinney have 'morphed' into votes for Johnson. So far, nobody has heard one anecdotal report of an intended vote for Johnson turning into a vote for McKinney."

Anecdotal or not, this is how elections work in America now--same as they work in any other dictatorship.

Although the oft-cited Uncle Joe Stalin quote--"It's not the people who vote that count, it's the people who count the votes"--is assumed to be an urban legend, it is applicable to America, circa 2006. Our ruling elite attempted to take down Cynthia McKinney for "assaulting" a Capital Hill cop, but that didn't work out as planned, so now they will steal the election from her.

Question: will Cynthia McKinney's supporters take to the streets and wage a civil disobedience campaign like the people of Mexico after the elite diebolded their election, or will they slump off and lick their wounds?

Follow up question: here in America, does the neocon Gestapo need kick in the door before people resist this sort of transparent fascism?

Don't answer. I have a pretty good idea.

Don't discount Katrina in Virginia 2d. Thelma Drake is a Bush lockstepper who did nothing more than toe the line on Katrina.
In a tight election, don't discount the moderate sea-level voters who make up the majority of this hurricane-target district, or the 20% of black voters who vote solidly Democratic in this GOP leaning district.

Drindl: Bhoomes 20-year military career may be the foundation of him blindly accepting authority; and don't go saying that career military and Republican are one and the same. They're not.

Also, wasn't Speedy the Counsel to Bush, not AG, when these opinions were given. [Speedy is the lawyer everybody wants to have; the one who will always tell you, "Sure you can do that!" and then find a way to rationalize it.]

I mention that because I believe that (horror of horrors) AG John Ashcroft actually give the White House an opinion that there was no legal basis for doing what they wanted to do.

For MN-6, Rove was in town today for another Bachman fundraiser to try to catch Wetterling in the dollar game. Its unclear how Bachman's unique brand of social conservatism will sell district-wide; I'd guess that her anti-gay marriage stance will be a plus, but anti-immigrants might be a wash. In any case, despite the publicity she's gained for her efforts in the State House, she's still fighting an uphill battle against Wetterling for name recognition & likely for 'strong feelings' for vs. against. Wetterling doesn't inspire a lot of distaste, where there are - statewide anyway - some very strong anti-Bachman feelings. It'll be interesting to watch.

Another indication of DCCC priorities is their red to blue campaign-

Red to Blue Candidates
Mike Arcuri (NY-24)
Bruce Braley (IA-01)
Chris Carney (PA-10)
Joe Donnelly (IN-02)
Christine Jennings (FL-13)
Phil Kellam (VA-02)
Patrick Murphy (PA-08)
Joe Sestak (PA-07)
Zack Space (OH-18)
Linda Stender (NJ-07)
Mike Weaver (KY-02)
Patty Wetterling (MN-06)
Charlie Wilson (OH-06)

Red to Blue First Wave
Darcy Burner (WA-08)
Phyllis Busansky (FL-09)
Joe Courtney (CT-02)
John Cranley (OH-01)
Jill Derby (NV-02)
Tammy Duckworth (IL-06)
Brad Ellsworth (IN-08)
Diane Farrell (CT-04)
Kirsten Gillibrand (NY-20)
Tessa Hafen (NV-03)
Baron Hill (IN-09)
Mary Jo Kilroy (OH-15)
Ron Klein (FL-22)
Nick Lampson (TX-22)
Ken Lucas (KY-04)
Patsy Madrid (NM-01)
Harry Mitchell (AZ-05)
Chris Murphy (CT-05)
Lois Murphy (PA-06)
Heath Shuler (NC-11)
Peter Welch (VT-AL)

sorry, should have been an end quotes after the word 'victory' in second graf--only that graf was a quote.

I think there's only one bhummes and he's a typical pathological republican. He believes the tripe they push because he doesn't think for himself. He's an angry white guy who thinks every bad thing that ever happened to him is somebody's else's [democrat's] fault. That's the republican way, and rove is really good at manipulating this type. They like aggression and 'manliness' and it's very easy to them to accept authoritarianism, because they secretly crave it.

Here's an example:

'First, Bush had agreemnent from his AG that his actions were legal and constitional, 2nd, the leadership of both the Senate & House were briefed on the program and lastly I do agree this is a totally different type of war we have ever been engaged in and I am not sure when if ever you can declare victory.

Any fool can see that Gonazalez is the worst AG in possibly history, who has ALWAYS, has Bush's lawyer, caved to anything bush wanted to do.

Everyone who reads knows the 'leadership' of both senate and house were not properly briefed on the domestic spying program.

Thirdly, he says, that this is a different kind of war, and we may never be able to declare victory. So he is basically begging for a permanent dictatorship.

That's the way it is with cowards--they want a daddy figure to tell them what to do.

I'm really surprised that the MN-6 seat isn't on this list. It is an open seat with two well-known female candidates going toe-to-toe. Maybe the DCCC isn't buying time in MN just yet, but the ground fight is well underway and involvement from either national party could sway the outcome.

I'm getting the impression that there are three people who post using the bhoomes name.

One who presents to me what are rational reasonably supported points (even if I don't agree with a number of them), where historical knowledge is evident, albeit used very selectively (see missile defense today, or military strength other days).

A second who simply provides RNC talking points rationalizing party positions.

And a third, who has the characterics of a Junior High School/High School blogger. I'm expecting a "Your mother wears combat boots!" retort one of these times.

Too bad that the first bhoomes is the one who shows up least frequently.

I am simply amazed at the food fight national politics has become. The Bush and Republican supporters appear to be resorting to a ploy of "well, your guys are just as bad as ours". That's pretty scary. When the GOP can only field crooks and scounderals or lunatics they can pretty much expect to loose. I sure hope so. Their President (becasue he certainly isn't mine) is wrong on virtually every issue - immigration, "guest workers" sealing AMercian jobs and American technology, outsourcing, national heathcare, taxes, Iraq and much of the rst of his foreign policy, you name it. I would ask the GOP parisans to take a look, not at Bush the Republican, but at what he has done and what he proposes to do. Then, the issue is really very simple. We cannot afford Bush and we cannot support a Congress, a Senate, or a court system that would side with him. I'm going to hold my nose and vote Democat. Virtually eveyone I talk with is going to do the same. I expecrt this election to be a referendum on Bush and I expect the GOP to loose just about everywhere.

Up here in Vermont, I disagree with Andy R.: Vermonters are politically schizophrenic, and will indeed vote Republican for a statewide office. Sen. Jeffords was an R and only turned independent when the GOP tried to make him drink the Lott/Rove/Cheney koolade. The present Gov. and Lt. Gov. are R's, initially elected by minority numbers when the Dems and Progressives suicidally split the liberal vote. Both Gov. and Lt. Gov. now work incumbency very well, and Dems and Proggies are stuck throwing sacrificial lambs into the race. Richard Snelling was a Republican governor whose death put Lt. Gov. Howard Dean in the seat.
The odd thing I see in the House at-large race is very little fire. Rainville had Laura Bush up for a fundraiser, to middling results. McCain's coming up for her soon, and the GOP Senate candidate, Rich Tarrant, has jabbed an elbow in her face, trying to make it look like an event for him. The caterwauling on the talk shows and in the letters to the editor all focus on the Senate race that is Bernie's to lose. Barely a peep about Rainville and Welch. It's a tough one to read.

Bhoomes,
Now I'll admit that Shuler was terrible in the pros, but the guy could sling the hell out of a ball at Tennessee. And if Shuler is such a loser then why were the Republicans recruiting him four years ago? Shuler started his own company and has provided a much needed economic boost in an area that definitly needs it. He is a new face with a good family life and the type of name recognition to win over the NASCAR dads (which are a serious voting block in western NC). Not to mention he is an attractive young man that never hurts with the women's vote. Talyor is in trouble.

Haha. hoomes, I can vouch for that being a lifelong Skins fan. BUT, one thing that Republicans cant seem to learn how to seperate (in addition to that of church and state) is SPORTS and state. Tom Osborne, Lynn Swann, Jim Bunning, I'm sure plenty more that I'm forgetting.

Sometimes it works, sometimes not, but lets let the voters of NC decide whether they want him to be their representative, NOT based on his mediocre throwing arm, but instead on his ability to motivate the masses and to penetrate their psyche based on issues of substance to NCarlineans. Thanks for the laugh tho hehe.

I believe the rule is a congressman or senator has to live in the district at the time he/she takes office. When Alan Keyes ran against Obama I don't think he lived in Illinois but he could have moved to Illinois before January had he (by some miracle) won. Similarly, Dcukworth could move to her district before January should she win.

When does Delay's district make the list? If his name is on the ballot, I would think this would be the #1 district in the country most likely to change parties.

I wonder how much the Kentucky governor's scandal is going to effect the national races in that state as well as the surrounding states. The DCCC seemed to buy alot of time in Kentucky and I wonder if they think they can use the scandal as part of the culture of corruption strategy in those states.

Heath Shuler is a total loser, just ask the Redskins organization who wasted a top draft pick on him. The last I heard from him, was I thought he was selling vacuum cleaners door to door. Remember, Dems, losers always do what got them tagged as losers, and that is to LOSE.

In your list of media buys, you show for CT both the 2nd and the 5th districts. Is the omission of CT 4--Shays/Farrell--an oversight? It's ninth on your list, and I would be VERY surprised if the DCCC would ignore it!

TLS Federalist -

The Constitution only requires House office-seekers to live in the state they represent, not any particular part of it, since states draw their own House districts.

Some states have passed laws requiring House candidates to live in their districts, but I don't believe that Illinois is one of them.

Why did OH-6 drop off the list without any mention whatsoever? The Fix hinted at this eventuality in June but some explanation is nonetheless due.

The explanation, of course, is not hard to ascertain. Simply stated, Charlie Wilson's (D) stunning write-in primary victory turned off the GOP's money spicket to his opponent. Chuck Blasdel (R) simply does not have the financial resources ($277K on hand) to mount an effective campaign this Fall. Without sufficient money, and given the ineffectiveness of the GOP's ugly negative attacks during the primary, Mr. Blasdel's campaign is now devoid of both an effective message for Eastern Ohio voters, not to mention the money necessary to deliver such a message should he find one between now and November.

Chris misunderestimated the breadth of
the DCCC buy of airtime. The story was
from a Republican source, and wasn't
reality-based.

Hey, Chris, get a map and do this story right!

The buy on the Charleston, WV station
is aimed at Shelley Moore Capito (R). She is
opposed by Callaghn, a former federal
prosecutor and former state Dem party chair.
So DCCC thinks this one can be taken.

Charleston WV is a long long way from the
TWO competitive KY districts.

But the Louisville buy is a two-fer. KY 04,
as Chris pointed out, is where former
(D) Congfressman Lucas is challenging
Davis (R). Add KY 03, the Louisville
district itself, where Northrup (R)
faces a strong attack from Yarmouth,
a (D) candidate in a (D) year in a
corrupt (R) state.

But wait! Louisville is a three-fer, with
TV signals spilling across the Ohio River
into IN O9.

If the DCCC will be running only generic
"Vote Democratic" ads, the pricey Louisville
media market turns out to be a real bargain!

Likewise Denver TV can carry a load for
many (D) candidates. Not only CO 07 lying
east of the city. But also much of CO 04,
where Cong Musgrace is again facing a real
run for it. And even CO O5 where the (D) is
a "Fighting Dem" Iraq veteran and Netroots
favorite, admittedly in a deep red district.

As has been pointed out, Cincinnati TV
also reaches into four or more competitive
districts, KY 04, IN 09, as well as two in the
Cincinnati area that were not mentioned
on the Republicans list. In OH 01, Cranley
is running strong against Chabot. And
in OH 02, Paul Hackett's race last year
may have begun an upheaval. Polls show
the (R) newbie incumbent Jean Schmidt
tied with the (D) Victoria Wullin.

So Chris, you said the DCCC buy is 11 markets
and covers 14 districts.

Here's another 6 districts in this comment.
That DCCC buy covers 20 districts, not 14,
and it shows real optimism on the (D) side.

The Fix,

I've been trying to tell you for months about IN-2. A combination of George Bush, gas, Mitch Daniels, Indiana Toll Road, Iraq, and "country club" Count Chocola, will mean Joe Donnelly is going to Congress next year. His poll even indicates it: 48-38!

I have heard that Tammy Duckworth does not actually live in the District she is seeking to represent; further, I have heard she says she is unable to move because her house was specially outfitted to accomodate her injuries.

If this is true, how is she legally qualified to seek election and hold office if elected?

One race that isn't in the top 20 that should be is the 6th District in MN. Rep. Mark Kennedy (R) is vacating the seat to run for Senate against Hennepin County Prosecutor Amy Klobuchar (D) where he will lose. The 6th seat is between Patty Wetterling (D) - child advocate and Michelle Bachmann (R) or more plainly stated - Right Wing Nut Job. Wetterling lost to Kennedy in '04 by only a few points, these results as a political novice. Bachmann is a pro-family advocate who is anti-gay marriage, and very extreme on a number of other social issues that put her to the right of most of the district. She was once caught in the bushes at a pro-gay Marriage rally, presumably up to no good. Having said all that, this race should definitely be in the top 10, if not top 5. It is almost a sure pick up for the DEMS.

bhoomes,

We are all intitled to our opinions and my opinion is that you are one sick puppy.
Thank god that we all have mothers so we know that someone loves us.

In New Mexico, Patricia Madrid ran an ad attacking Heather Wilson's connection to Tom Delay. It said (IIRC) she received money from him, mentioned Abramoff and that she voted to make it harder to indict Delay. I saw it last night.

Sandwich Repairman -

'The Hotline's' Chuck Todd ranks the top 50 most competitive House races - as opposed to just the top 20 on this site - in the country on a monthly basis and he just updated his rankings yesterday.

Of the 50 races, 38 seats are currently held by a republican, 11 by a Democrat, and 1 by an independent (Bernie Sanders). If all of those seats were to flip, that would be a net gain of 28 seats for Democrats.

Plus, a few of the Dem-held seats that Todd has as endangered really have NO chance whatsoever of being won by the republicans, such as LA-03, WV-01, TX-17(where Chet Edwards has a $1-million COH advantage), SC-05 (Spratt survived in '94, could he possibly LOSE in '06???), and especially OH-06, where Dem Charlie Wilson is looking more and more likely to DESTROY Chuck Blasdel in the seat Ted Strickland is vacating to run for governor. If these are the republicans' BEST pick-up opportunities that is really telling. In a couple more months this race and others will be completely off the radar and the prospect of Democrats making huge gains while defending all of their incumbents will look even better.

Was any TV time purchased in the Connecticut 4th?

bhoomes -- Where to start. Reagan pushed missile defense programs of one kind or another starting with his election in 1980, so it's simply wrong to argue that the idea hasn't been around - with money spent on it - for 20+ years. Moreover, after literally hundreds and hundreds of BILLIONS of dollars we have now had - by your count - TWO successful "tests" of the current program. Your conclusion, based upon that evidence, is that this has been a good program for the US? Interesting is all I can say, given our continued failure to inspect what comes into our ports as another poster noted.

Oh, and how much is our safety worth? Anything bhoomes, literally anything. Which is why this administration's continued failure to act on the 9-11 commission's recomendations is terrifying and insulting. The threat of someone slipping through our borders (from the north_ with a dirty bomb - which recently happened as part of a security test - is MUCH greater than Korea sending a missile our way. And of course, we could always try succeeding diplomatically with Korea. But nah, the current foreign policy of the Bush administration is working too well to try that.

Peter--

Good point on the election concerns not really crossing party lines at this point. I believe that the details are mostly only being followed by liberals, but I think that frustration with elections is something most people are generally aware of. Blackwell's ties to Diebold and some of his controversial directives are becoming more common knowledge in the state. Most of the criticism is wisely not coming directly from the campaigns but from democratic umbrella groups, high profile dems, and to some extent usually nonpartisan groups like the League of Women Voters which is maintaining a law suit against Ohio's election system generally.

I also agree that the statewide races, particularly the Governor's race will decide the fate of most of the downticket items. I see a possibility (no where near a probability) that there could be a sea change in Ohio government like what happened in the mid-nineties which I think was in response to democrat dissatisfaction and corruption like attitudes towards Republicans now. This would include dems winning all statewide offices except probably A.G. and Dewine's Senate seat, and picking up federal and state house raises. This would not include general assembly control switching hands, the Republican lead is just too large (60-39 in the house and 22-11 in the Senate). Even if this happens I don't doubt the Dems abiilty to lose again in 2010 and in general support changes to Ohio's districting process to limit partisanship.

Bhoomes,
I don't disagree that Missile defense is a beneficial program to explore. But Colin is right our success in this field is terrible. The real problem with Missile defense is that it destablizes the nuclear powers. The whole idea behind nuclear weapons is ensured mutual destruction. That goes out the window when you start talking about missile defense. The response that other nuclear powers will have devise other ways to gaurantee our destruction. Book-bag bombs, biological weapons, etc are then back in play to counter our nuclear advantage.
The real travesty in my eyes is that missile defense was made a political tool. This program should have been kept super secret so that WHEN it was operational you can use it as a huge bargaining chip with allies (Europe, Isreal, etc) and against our enemies (NK, Iran, China etc). However, the GOP have constantly used this as a political tool on security, and the dems have used it as a sign of government waste.
Also Missile defense will do nothing against the more serious threat of a terrorists obtaining a nuclear device and stowing it in a cargo container and sending it through our sieve like ports. If the administration had spent the same money on port security that they did on MD then I for one would feel alot safer.

bhoomes, thanks for the kind words. See, we can discuss things rationally even if we disagree.

Re: Missle Defense, I think Colin largely summed up how I feel. If we are going to engage in a program like that, it needs to be effective and there needs to be a clearly defined threat. NKorea, in my mind, does not satisfy that threat. ICBMs from Russia in the 70s/80s COULD have defined that threat, but mutually assured destruction principle basically cancelled that out.

By far our biggest threat is Iran and NKorea developing and disseminating nuclear devices (brief-case bombs) and detonating it in a major American city. Spending billions upon billions of dollars on an inordinately difficult mission (knocking a tiny missle out of the sky with another missle coming from opposing angles) makes NO sense to me when we are basically leaving our ports WIDE OPEN. The 9/11 Commission, which you can obv agree or disagree with, indicated the need for greater port security, and what did the Bush Admin/GOP congress want to do? Sell port control (for lack of a better word) to a country that POSSIBLY could have ties to islamic extremist/terrorists. Terrible terrible idea, even if the possibility of a terrorist infiltrating the otherwise secure system is fairly remote.

So, again, the world is not black and white, and I think you will find that if you spend the time to discuss these issues with people from across the aisle, you will find VERY rational arguments for their (our) stance. NOT the bogus and insulting Limbaugh/Rove-induced argument that we are SOFT on National Security. When it comes down to it, we have the same goals: protect America, keep America the best country in the world and preserve our status as a beacon for freedom around the world. Period.

Colin, the Air Force just had there 2nd successful test of missile defense yesterday. We have only been working on Missile Defense since Bush took office and not for the last 20 years because previous Presidents were still tied to the old ABM Treaty during the Nixon era. But in case you have a short memory, when Bush took office and stated he was going to disregard the out dated treaty, the Dems through a fit and said it was in our National defense not to build a missile defense