reason, yes, senators are responsible for such conduct of their staff--especially those who build their careers on supporting "family values". Why do you think Kit Bond fired the press person he employed who started a blog named with the number of the plane Gov. Mel Carnahan died on?

And if you're using Survey USA polls, Brown is ahead of DeWine 52-42 in the most recent one. You have yet to fine a poll with DeWine ahead of Brown or even tied with him. Your blather is not backed up by the facts.

http://sandwichrepair.blogspot.com

Sandwhich repairman,

So, you still have nothing on Dewine without attempting to tie him to something someone else he knew did. Dewine hired a legal legislative director paid a prostitute...this is somehow Dewine's fault how? Is he responsible for this guy's personal life? You can attach things others do to Dewine, but I'm still uncertain you can attach things to him without using crooked endeavours of others. The latest poll does actually put Brown over 50%: Brown 51%-Dewine 47%. But, considering Dewine's financial advantages, the GOP realizing that Dewine is their best hope to keep his seat this cycle in Ohio (as Strickland is a great candidate and looks like he will take care of Blackwell handily). The National GOP will pour in money and attach the term liberal to Brown...for that's what he is. On Nov. 7, Dewine wins and keeps the Ohio seat for himself.

As for Steele, the newest poll says Steele 48%-Cardin 47% and Zeese with 4%. I'm not predicting a Steele victory just yet, but it's going to be close until the end. If I had to guess, I think Maryland voters may split the ticket and vote Ehrlich out of the govs. mansion and vote Steele into the U.S. senate. That's what polls look like right now, anyhow. I think they will split the ticket.

Rob,
I disagree, man. I think Tom Lee wins the CFO race handily while Charlie Crist wins the governor's race handily. The Attorney general's race will be close, we agree on that one.

Part Jewish?? Huh?? Under Jewish law, you are either 100% or 0% Jewish. If your mother is/was Jewish, or you converted, you are a Jew. Otherwise, you are not. There is no partial.

Nice to see Allen-Webb in the top ten. Allen just keeps stepping in it, doesn't he? But, seriously, what is so terribly sad is that someone who is even part Jewish could parade around with a Confederate flag. What a sad person George Allen must be. I really do feel sorry for him.

I honestly can't believe I did that. Looking back at my post and reading what I posted, all the logic is right, but the race is totally wrong. Florida has no shot of changing sides in the Senate, I can only hope I got distracted by someone talking about the Crist/Davis race when posting that. Since that is tha case, I remove Florida from the list, slip AZ and Nevada up 1, remove minnesota as the latest poll has Klobuchar blowing Kennedy away by over 20% and since there are no other real competetive races, my top 10 becomes a top 9

Reason,

Florida is on there for several reasons.

1 According to the Real Clear Politics poll average, the race between Crist and Davis is a close one, Crist is up 6.5, 46.8-40.3.

2 Some of you will look at those poll numbers and say that Crist has a big enough lead, especailly with his cash on hand advantage, but one thing you don't remember is that Davis, despite being the primary winner, isn't all that well known. His pick for Lt. Gov was a gem and will energize the African American base and Davis can mitigate Crist's advantage in Tampa where they both come from.

3 Charlie Crist has no guts, he says something about an issue and then does nothing. Examples, Terry Schiavo, Crist eventually said he was opposed to intervention but didn't say a thing while the debate raged on. He did nothing to prevent insurance rates from soaring even though he had direct oversight of the regulators as a cabinet member. He did nothing as Florida's teacher shortage got worse and worse as an education commissioner. He was opposed to rising phone rates in 04 but stayed quiet about that too, same thing about Gambling in Florida, he was opposed but said nothing. Charlie Crist doesn't have the guts to actually do anything.

4 Neither Crist not Harris is gonna excite the conservatives. Harris is toast and Crist is a not a conservative.

5 I see 3 potential races to be competetive in Florida Governor, Attorney General and CFO. Also, down ballot has some close House races like Klein v Shaw.

Also, what other races would you put there??

Plagerism seems to run in both parties. Taking Durbins legislation is smart and it was actually something that was good. What't the best form of an compliment. Copying it and attributing it to oneself.

I have an even better one for you, reason: Is Al Gore a proven vote-getter because Bill Clinton won the 1992 and 1996 elections? Or because he got 540,000 votes more than George W. Bush in 2000?

reason: How about DeWine employing a Legislative Director and Legal Counsel who paid a 23 year old staff assistant, Jessica Cutler, for sex AND pimped her out to other male Hill and official DC staffers as johns as well? Pretty unethical in my book.

Can you find any recent poll showing DeWine tied with or ahead of Brown? I can't.

Steele got 51.6% of the vote as a #2, not the top of the ticket, in a Republican year against a notoriously weak Democratic candidate. (The first Democrat to lose a MD Governor race since 1966) If you were around and paid attention to that race, you know the result had more to do with Townsend's weakness than Ehrlich's strength. Would you also call Dan Quayle a proven vote-getter because the Bush-Quayle ticket got 53% of the vote in 1988?

Also, you have far too many misspellings in your own posts to be correcting that of other people. It's chief, not cheif, for starters. And the senior senator from SC is Lindsay Graham, not Lyndsey (which is a woman's name spelled that way--we already know he's gay, if that's what you're implying). And Steele's first name is Michael, not Micheal.

vmi98mom: It might be confusing to use the abbreviation AA in Maryland politics. AA is also used as shorthand for Anne Arundel County. It's true that Elijah Cummings and Albert Wynn are incumbent Democratic congressman who will also be on the Maryland ballot.

SCliberal: I'll ask you the same question I posed on this blog before. If falling gas prices are a Republican conspiracy, why have they also fallen precipitously up here in Canada? The gas station across the street from me is at the equivalent of $3.03 a gallon today (C$.899/L). A month ago it was $4.30 (C$1.244/L). I don't think there's any conspiracy. I think it has more to do with the end of fighting in Lebanon, the discovery of new oil in the Gulf of Mexico, and the end of summer driving season. Otherwise, what Canadian election is Dick Cheney trying to manipulate?? Yukon's Territorial Legislative Assembly with its 18 seats?

Democrats should not stop Republican GOTV efforts; we need to do even better. More people participating in democracy is better, blocking those efforts would be anti-democratic and the kind of dirty pool Republicans have played over the years as in NH in 2002 when they jammed Democratic phone lines. At least one person has gone to jail for that so far. We don't need that on our side. We need to win honestly. And there's no reason why we can't.

Drindl, I'll have to check out that Post article you linked. It sounds really damning.

The fact is that Ehrlich won the election. Unlike Virginia, where the Lt. Governor runs separately from the Governor, Maryland voters can vote only for the package of Governor/Lt. Governor. How much Steele added to or subtracted from Ehrlich's total is problematical.

Loudoun voter,

The fact remains that Steele won a statewide election in 02' with 51.6% of the vote. That's a factual statement. I'm not suggesting that Ehrilch won b/c Steele is his running mate. But Steele won the Lt. Governor's spot because 51.6% of voters who voted in Maryland voted for Micheal Steele. Certainly you don't dispute this? If 51.6% vote for Steele in Md. here in 06' in the US senate race, he will be the next US Senator from Md.

What about the Republican controlled oil companies? There new strategy seems to be "lets take high gas prices off the debate table for a few weeks...." even though a barrel of crude is still above 60$! I wonder if the vp planned this contingency back in the early days of junior's first term when he had a somewhat secret summit with the oil barons....God Bless John Spratt!

Reason wrote: Steele is "a proven vote getter in Maryland, the proof is his winning 51.6% of the vote in 2002."

Reason: Are you not aware that the MD lieut. governor has NO official duties? NONE. The post is a joke. Anyone who votes for a gubernatorial candidate based on his/her running mate is an idiot.

Drindl,

While I do give McCain credit for standing up, I think Lyndsey Graham and John Warner deserve much of the credit as well. I think if Warner had sided with Bush on this, as chairman of the Armed Forces Committee, Bush would win this one. Warner, however, has decided to stick to his guns and take the best interests of the nation into account here. I think Warner is a wise chairman who realizes the international reputation of the USA is totally at stake here. Warner often deems himself "one of the senate's few old dogs left." In his state of Va., it's still popular to talk about dogs. I think that's Warner's style anyhow. In any event, Warner, Graham and McCain have combined efforts to stand their ground and do what's best for the nation. I commend them and support their efforts.

Politically speaking, the backing of Graham in South Carolina surely would help McCain in 08'. Would it be enough to win there? In Va., would Warner actually endorse McCain over Allen for the nomination? 2 powerful political allies for McCain in 08'!

Rob,

I don't understand Florida being on the list of your top 10 races. Those races were pretty well settled in the primaries. The winners in the state generals will be:
Gvr: Rep. Crist wins by a comfortable margin.
Lt. Gvr.: Rep. Kottkamp wins by the same margin as Crist.
Attorney General: Dem. Skip Cambell beats McCollum in a close one, ending McCollum's political career.
Cheif Financial Officer: Rep. St. Sen. majority leader Tom Lee blows out Alex Sink and becomes the fastest rising star in Fl. politics over the next few years.
Agriculture commissioner: Charlie Bronson wins in a walk.
U.S. Senate: Bill Nelson wins against Katherine Harris by a comfortable margin. It gets closer in the final days of the campaign, but I don't think there's any way in this world Harris has a legite shot to pull this one off. She's a crooked politician and it finally shows at the polls in Nov. when Nelson ends her bid once and for all.

In my view, Rob, the only statewide election that will be really close is the Attorney general's election. I think everything else is pretty well closed.

'For now, McCain and company are holding fast. And even the usually more compliant House Republicans are taking their own stand against the White House, holding up a separate law that would authorize Bush's controversial eavesdropping program.'

Interesting turn of events. Don't know what McCain is up to here. Genuine moral leadership? Because we could sure use some of that right now. I mean, it's a sorry spectacle, one I never thought I'd see, when the President of the US is fighting to inflict humiliating homoerotic torture on people. What is he, the Marquis de Sade? Watching him on TV, his spinsterish peevishness, his tics and squints and grimaces, his demanding, surly, pouting, 'I'm going to take the ball and go home now' attitude. Man. What a psycho. I honestly can't imagine anyone less presidential. I'd say Alfred E. Neuman, but the guy's too much like him.

Maybe McCain has just decided he's going to start being president now, instead of bothering with the formalities.

Mark,

Here's a source for you w/r/t Allen plagiarizing Durbin/Kennedy legislation:

http://www.alternet.org/blogs/peek/41510/

Allen basically copied Durbin's proposed amendment verbatim, changed a "will" to "shall", then stamped his own name on it and cut in before Durbin's amendment was to be proposed so that he could get credit for it instead of Durbin.

No mention in the bill of anything to do with brain-damage (other than his own).

I expect to see Maryland drop off the line in rather short order. I think Cardin is going to blow Steele out of the water, especially with the get out the voter effort O'Malley will bring in Baltimore. Everyone talks about how Rendell's efforts in Philly will help Casey but they don't seem to point that out in this case. Personally, as time goes on, I see any race with a Dem incumbent falling off the line with the exception of New Jersey. Looking at trends and my expectations. My looking to the future top 10 is as follows

PA the Casey Rendell top of ticket not only sweeps the Repubs away, it will help Dems lower on the ticket.

MT Tester is gonna croak Burns

OH With Strickland's help, and the dismal state of the Ohio GOP, Brown will pull this off.

RI Whitehouse got more votes in the primary than Chafee and Laffey combined in a non competetive primary. I think some of the unaffiliated voters will vote for Whitehouse once he begins to tie Chafee to Bush

MO McCaskill is a formidable opponent, she's leading in the polls and is really making a push for the rural vote.

TN Ford has come out with a doozy of a commercial and Corker looks stupid attacking it. That won't play well with the religious folks of TN

NJ corruption is the theme here, the Repubs tend to poll better than they actually do, which is why this is so low on the list

VA Webb croacked Allen in the debate, has had the lead in some polls, has one hell of a resume, and will get some big time support from the dems, Kaine and Warner, who will once again use Webb to show his name can win the state of Virginia

FL Davis isn't that far behind Crist and has run a solid campaign. With Nelson's victory all but assured, how will that play out in the Gov's race.

AZ Pederson's deep pockets will really play into this race as the race goes on. If you think Pederson is on the offensive now, just wait till the end of October when he's really trying to make an impact. One wonders if there will be any space left on TV for a commercial aside from one by Pederson.

this last slot could really go to anyone, but at this time, I'll give it to a tie between Nevada and Minnesota neither of these races is really competetive and I think Carter has more potential to do something than Kennedy does but if he's not on the trail, he really can't do much can he?

Reason,
Steele has NO proven vote getting skills, as he has never run for office on his own. Do you really believe that the 51.6 was because of Steele on the ticket? Most of his money is tied back the the GOP, and the Dems will hammer this point over and over.

Mfume conceded and is backing Cardin and will hopefully put the GOP in its place with its on-going race baiting. Trying to imply that the AA community will be so upset that Simms and Mfume are not on the ticket and will jump to the GOP because of Steele's skin color is offensive to the AA community. Exactly how many black GOP congressmen are there? Or how many have run? I don't think the GOP wants to play this game, because they will be serious losers. That's not to say that some in the AA community won't vote for him, but I would not expect more than a point or two bump over average, certainly no where near 30%.

I expect the Cardin campaign will trot out Steele's close ties with the administration and paint him as what he is -- a vote for the Administration's policies, which are not exactly popular here in MD. In addition to his own war chest, Cardin will get plenty of assistance from the Party establishment.

At some point Steele is going to actually have to address the issues in front of Congress that affect MD families. When he does, he'll either have to completely flip/flop and be proved the poser that he is, or maintain positions that are antithetical to those of the majority in MD.

Still haven't seen the data for the Gonzales poll, but based on the results of the primaries, I'd say they are suspect. The last Zogby poll had it at 49/40 Cardin. I predict Steele tops out at 45% and the race goes to Cardin. If next poll shows similar results this should drop from the Line.

Jeb,
earlier I said "as far as I know, Dewine has no major ethical problems." I don't know of any major ethical problems that Dewine has. Can you give any specific examples that carry weight of anything without using the names Bush and Taft that can demonize Dewine? If there is any, I'm certain that Brown will be throwing it at him. I stand by my reasoning of my opinion that Dewine will weather the storm and keep the Ohio seat.

I also stated "Steele is a great candidate with alot of money." You said "half wrong". What part of that is false? Do you have any evidence to base your view, or are you just simply engaging in partisan rhetoric? Be specific, as I was, in telling you why I think Steele has a great chance at the Maryland senate race. Tell me why, either he's not a good candidate or you don't believe he has and can raise money. Which part of this do you doubt? Look at some of his fundraising records with Bush and company. Also, realize that he's the sitting Lt. Governor. He's a proven vote getter in Maryland, the proof is his winning 51.6% of the vote in 2002.

I'm not going to answer the petty name calling, it's really not worth discussing. I must tell you that it's spelled "arrogant, not arragant". Now,I am asking you to respond with examples, however. Look forward to hearing from you on these questions.

I saw most of the debate this morning. Webb definitely wiped up the floor with Allen on Iraq. Allen definitely looked liked an amateur. Webb slipped up a bit with his answers on women in the military, but not enough to prevent him from getting a decisive win in the debate.

GOOD DEBATE this am.

Webb just destroyed Allen. Made it glaringly obvious just how little Allen knows... about anything.

Webb destroyed Allen in the debate on Meet the Press today--of course, Allen has to defend the increasingly untenable Bush Administration positions on these issues. The longer this campaign runs, the less engaged and less able Allen looks...

I agree with Scott. To get average voters the Democrats need to push one message nation wide like the republicans did. Also, the Democrats need to figure out a way to stop the Republican get out and vote scheme. If the Democrats do those two things they will take control of both the Senate and the House

From NewsMax, ultrarightwing propagamda outlet:

'Rino Chafee Killing John Bolton Nomination: Fight Back!'

Or, How the Base Feels About Chaffee.... hahahaahaha

Josh Marshall on the idiocy of our press corps:

'Brian Williams opened his newscast last night with this: "Good evening from Havana, Cuba, the host city for what is called the Summit of Non-Aligned Nations--in short, all of the enemies of the United States, really, gathered in one room."

Well, then. There are 118 developing countries that are part of the nonaligned movement, including India, Pakistan, and Thailand. Sure hope we don't have to invade them all.'

Want to know why Iraq is now a failed state, a total, unmitigated disaster? Here's your answer--it was set up to fail:

'After the fall of Saddam Hussein's government in April 2003, the opportunity to participate in the U.S.-led effort to reconstruct Iraq attracted all manner of Americans -- restless professionals, Arabic-speaking academics, development specialists and war-zone adventurers. But before they could go to Baghdad, they had to get past Jim O'Beirne's office in the Pentagon.

To pass muster with O'Beirne, a political appointee who screens prospective political appointees for Defense Department posts, applicants didn't need to be experts in the Middle East or in post-conflict reconstruction. What seemed most important was loyalty to the Bush administration.

O'Beirne's staff posed blunt questions to some candidates about domestic politics: Did you vote for George W. Bush in 2000? Do you support the way the president is fighting the war on terror? Two people who sought jobs with the U.S. occupation authority said they were even asked their views on Roe v. Wade .
Many of those chosen by O'Beirne's office to work for the Coalition Provisional Authority, which ran Iraq's government from April 2003 to June 2004, lacked vital skills and experience. A 24-year-old who had never worked in finance -- but had applied for a White House job -- was sent to reopen Baghdad's stock exchange. The daughter of a prominent neoconservative commentator and a recent graduate from an evangelical university for home-schooled children were tapped to manage Iraq's $13 billion budget, even though they didn't have a background in accounting.'

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/16/AR2006091600193.html

'At the National Counterterrorism Center -- the agency created two years ago to prevent another attack like Sept. 11 -- more than half of the employees are not U.S. government analysts or terrorism experts. Instead, they are outside contractors.

At CIA headquarters in Langley, Va., senior officials say it is routine for career officers to look around the table during meetings on secret operations and be surrounded by so-called green-badgers -- nonagency employees who carry special-colored IDs.

Some of the work being outsourced is extremely sensitive. Abraxas Corp., a private company in McLean, Va., founded by a group of CIA veterans, devises "covers," or false identities, for an elite group of overseas case officers, according to current and former U.S. intelligence officials familiar with the arrangement.

Contractors also are turning up in increasing numbers in clandestine facilities around the world. At the CIA station in Islamabad, Pakistan, as many as three-quarters of those on hand since the Sept. 11 attacks have been contractors. In Baghdad, site of the agency's largest overseas presence, contractors have at times outnumbered full-time CIA employees, according to officials who have held senior positions in the station.

The post-9/11 period has brought sweeping changes to the U.S. intelligence community. Spy budgets have swelled by more than $10 billion a year, and agencies have seen their roles and authorities altered by legislation.

Largely because of the demands of the war on terrorism and the drawn-out conflict in Iraq, U.S. spy agencies have turned to unprecedented numbers of outside contractors to perform jobs once the domain of government-employed analysts and secret agents.
The proliferation of contractors has outstripped the intelligence community's ability to keep track of them.

Former intelligence officials said most U.S. spy agencies did not have even approximate counts of the numbers of contractors they were employing -- although several officials said the number at the CIA had nearly doubled in the last five years and now surpassed the full-time workforce of about 17,500. Often, the contract employees had previous ties to the agencies.'

A good deal of discussion awaits us on the Va. race later on today. Meet The Press is the debate we have been waiting for and it should give us a good idea of how well Webb,my favorite, is able to state his position. Russert is usually harder on dems than repugs so this should be a great show for us that are "political junkies". As an issue, some may be suprised, the war most likely will be the main focus but Russert, one can never tell.

I am new on the scene here. I've been reading Chris' Blog for a while, but have just now found my way to this part of the cyber world.

FiscalDems: I have wondered the same things regarding fiscal responsibility. Then I realized that we are a nation of people living on credit. Your average Joe/Josephine lives on credit cards and borrowed money, so to them, its a way of life and there's nothing wrong with it. Sad, but it seems to be true.

Regarding the torture issue, I fully expect that in October, those renegade Republicans who are standing up to Bush will cave on a "compromise" plan that will prevent torture (Rove will tell them in very short order that he will personally see to it that their political careers are cut short if they don't fall in line), but will allow the President to sidestep that anytime he believes it is in the interest of National Security. This "compromise" will also be retro-active, meaning that any torture that occurred before signing of the Bill would be "legalized". This will allow Bush AND his renegade Republicans to claim victory while at the same time, trying to make Democrats look weak on security.

If that doesn't happen, then the President will sign a Bill banning torture and then issue a "signing statement" that says he does not believe he is bound by the law if he is acting in the Nation's best interest (as he has done so many times in eht past).

Don't get me wrong, I am a staunch Liberal. But I guess I am also a bit cynical.

Regarding Elections: I am very worried. While it looks like the Dems are poised to take control of both houses of Congress, I keep going back to one thing: this administration believes in winning at ANY cost and will stop at nothing (even breaking the law) to maintain their complete control over the Senate and House. I jsut don't see that things have changed enough with our voting systems to prevent this administration and the Republican party from "stealing" votes. We have already seen that our media is willing to overlook the statistical impossibility of exit polls being so far off of the "actual" tally as they were in Ohio by simply questioning the validity and usefullness of exit polls. If the same thing happened again, I'm sure you would read stories with headlines like "what's wrong with exit polls?" or "Why exit polls no longer work".

As someone who lives in Cali, I feel like I'm missing out on the competitive races. But then again, maybe I should just count my blessings. I could also wake up and realize that Gov'na Arnold will likely be re-elected. Life can be oh so bittersweet.

OK. I have rambled enough for my first post. I have to go to bed.

I dont understand why Dems are not pushing the total lack of fiscal responsibility by GOP. The last three GOP presidents, Reagan and PoppyBush and Babybush have almost bankrupt this country. There is nothing conservative about this. The bottom line is GOP has been more corrupt, fiscally irrresponsilbe, and hypocrits since they came into power in 1994. The reality is they have no moral compass, could care less about sound government, and simply are a bunch of self centered egotistical, power hungry baffons.

Any time a political party and its puppet dictator can make Bill Clinton look like he belongs on Mount Rushmore, abeit with Monica on her knees in front, you have to be looking at a party with nothing to offer.

Jackson Landers: It's not really fair to compare the TN Senate and Gov. contests. The Senate seat is open; the Governor is a popular incumbent. If you read the report summary from Ford's own campaign poll where he came out ahead of Corker 44-42, they talk pretty explicitly about benefitting from Bredesen's coattails.

MD: In addition to O'Malley's black LG running mate, Ben Cardin is Jewish. And if black voters in MD vote based on race, why couldn't Alan Keyes ever crack 30% of the vote?? And will the people making this argument ever pay attention to the scientific study which found that Democrats gain a few percentage points when they run a white candidate against a black one? Steele can keep nipping at Cardin's heels, but this is Cardin's race to lose. Steele is a moderate?!? Where did that come from? Frist's successor as Republican Senate leader is no mystery; Mitch McConnell (KY) is next in line.

Chafee *is* a decent guy, but he's a dim bulb and awfully spineless. I remember his office telling us he would cosponsor a bill we were introducing, but only if another Republican went on first. "He likes to have company." Real profile in courage. He has none of the gravitas his father did. I think his opponent and general climate are worse than the ones he faced in 2000. The real R victory here is indeed that Dems will have to spend money in RI instead of 2nd tier races like TN and VA (though it's worth pointing out that the DSCC has led the NRSC in fundraising all year). As others have noted, Whitehouse alone got more votes than were cast in the entire Republican primary this week--and the Democratic one wasn't even competitive. No state is more Democratic than RI in presidential elections (it ranks 2nd only to DC). This is Whitehouse's race to lose. (And as a post-mortem, who thinks Laffey would've won the primary if Matt Brown hadn't dropped out of the Democratic race? That freed up a lot of Dems to reregister as unaffiliated for Chafee.)

Rep. Ney did NOT resign from Congress. He folded his reelection campaign. That's normally called retiring from office. Duke Cunningham and Tom DeLay resigned.

Dick Wadhams is hardly unbeatable as a campaign manager. Just ask Senator Nethercutt.

Quite a few southern Democrats switched parties after 94? Sen. Dick Shelby (AL) and Rep. Nathan Deal (GA) do not constitute "quite a few" in any sense of the phrase I'm familiar with.

lylepink: There is no significant overlap of voters in the MO and TN media markets. Those 2 states share a short border, and the few southeast Missourians who see ads from Memphis are far too few to make any significant difference, and that region is very Republican already. Moreover, living in MO, I doubt they care about Corker and Ford.

St. Louis County is key to every statewide election in MO. Yes, Jean Carnahan won it in 2002, but by much too small a margin. The difference compared to 2000 is that Talent is from St. Louis County, mitigating the Republicans' weakness there, as opposed to Ashcroft who's from southwest MO. Talent's being from STL County will help him neutralize McCaskill's advantage there again. On one hand, it's true he only beat Carnahan 50-49 in 2002, but on the other, she was an incumbent who garnered some sympathy for the deaths of her husband and son. McCaskill doesn't have that. What she does have is a much more Democratic environment to run in, and she's campaigned shrewdly and aggressively so far. Bush has low ratings in MO, as does Gov. Blunt (R). Every major race in MO seems to go down to the wire (2000 Senate, 2000 Governor, 2002 Senate, 2004 Governor, plus some other state offices); I expect this one to do the same. McCaskill has been campaigning in rural MO more than she did in the Governor's race in 04, which should help her reduce the Republican advantage in rural MO. Obviously she also has to maximize her pluralities in STL City and County as well as Kansas City at the same time. The stem cell issue and ballot initiative will help her, as will the minimum wage initiative. But the biggest positive development of all was probably the overturning this week of the outrageous photo ID law Republicans had enacted. That stood to disenfranchise 200,000 voters, most of whom would be Democratic voters. Now they can vote again. And that's easily more than the margin of victory in a close MO race.

http://sandwichrepair.blogspot.com

I am wondering how Hawaii is allowed to hold its primary elections next Saturday the 23rd--that's Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish New Year! And don't tell me there are no Jews in HI because the Governor is one.

Also don't forget Monday's provincial election in New Brunswick which is going right down to the wire! The polls show a dead heat, and redistricting since the last election has added suspense and uncertainty. NB had about 730,000 people in the 2001 census; that's about the same as South Dakota.

Yahoo article: http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/15092006/2/national-swing-seats-difference-tight-n-b-election-monday.html

CBC page: http://www.cbc.ca/nbvotes2006/

Has anyone heard anything about George Allen stealing legislation from Dick Durbin and presenting it to the senate as his own. Supposedly, he changed one word from shall to will. I was told it was a bill for brain damaged soldiers.

SHAME, SHAME ON R. JEFFREY SMITH OF THE WAPO, for writing this disgusting piece of filth, obfuscating and excusing what bushco is trying to do:

'President Bush's push this week for legislation that narrowly defines U.S. obligations under the Geneva Conventions is motivated by his aides' conviction that the CIA must continue using a small number of highly controversial interrogation techniques on suspected terrorists, according to current and former U.S. officials. These methods include some that cause extreme discomfort and have been repudiated by other federal agencies.'

'Extreme discomfort' -- my ass. They want to be able to torture people to death -- they already have -- and get away with it. They don't want to stop at organ failure, at irrevocable injury, they want no boundaries.They want to torture people so that they will get the false information they need to justify bombing Iran.

It's so painfully obvious -- when you torture people you can get them to say anything you want.You can get them to say that Iran already has 10 nuclear weapons, that it plans to use them on the US, that it intends to conquer the world. People will say anything to make intolerable pain stop. They don't call it intolerable for nothing.

Bush said just this week, 'imagine if we don't stop Iran. Imagine if in 50 years they control all the Middle Eastern oil..'

As on oil man, of course, that's his biggest fear. And that's what this is all about. More blood for oil. And so the once-greatest country in the world grovels in the pits of hell for its addiction to oil.

Look out Brownback--you're governor may take you out next...

SHHHH!

"Mad King George wants the War Act overturned so that he and the other war criminals -- Cheney, Rumsfeld, Rice, Wolfowitz, and Perle -- can escape indictments in the future."

I'm jealous, this is a great line, wish I had written it.

Can there be any doubt they are in the process of covering their tracks and pre-empting the investigative posse that they fear will be sent after them, if the Dems win just one house?

Beware the cornered beast...

"How many disenchanted black dem. voters can Steele muster?"

This is proof of what I just posted.

Are you suggesting blacxk voters are not disenfranchised with the Republicans?

Can I get a group "DUH!?"

You DO live in Denial, Ohio, don't you!

"As I know of, Dewine himself has no major ethical problems, either." (totally wrong)

"Mike Steele is a great candidate with alot of money." (half wrong)

Have you been living in a cave, or just in the town of Denial, Ohio?(a "shady" little town that is getting bigger every day.)

Putting it into print doesn't make it true, but it does reinforce your own confusion. Don't be so arragant as to label yourself "reason" when you really practice partison propaganda. Call yourself "excuses" or "the noble liar", but reason has many close relatives (truth, logic, integrity) who might not appreciate your using their family name to foment confusion.

"Talent, who has none of the baggage of a DeWine or Burns..."

That is a very presumptuous, rather all-knowing statement... Almost sounds like pre-emptive denial.

Don't be surprised to learn differently in the very near future.

It is going to be very hard for anyone with the name "Talent" to distance themselves from the Tom and Jack show, once the dominoes start falling.

Secrets abound, and will be unveiled in the dogfight coming over thenext couple years, and particularly the next two months.

Chris has positioned the Missouri race correctly, but he should be wary of Talent's St. Louis base. He has a base among social conservatives in the St. Louis area, but look at the numbers from 2002, when he defeated Jean Carnahan. Suburban St. Louis county, Talent's home county, casts more votes than any county in the state. Carnahan won St. Louis County by 4%, or 15,000 votes. There has been a controversy about whether the Republicans have been conceding St. Louis County to build up support in farther suburbs and rural areas. After outspending McCaskill on ads 10-1 for a while, Talent, who has none of the baggage of a DeWine or Burns, still looks to be well short of 50% in matchups with McCaskill. I think it's dead even, but McCaskill has the wind at her back. Talent only won in 2002 by 1% statewide.

Pretty good analysis, Chris. Pa. and Montana are definately the top 2. No question about it, Santorum and Burns are both in trouble! In Ohio, I don't think Dewine is in as much trouble as most people think. He is very well funded and has a fairly moderate record, Ohio tends to like moderate right leaning politicians. As I know of, Dewine himself has no major ethical problems, either. Brown is a liberal, and Dewine has the financial resources to defend himself and cast that message. I think Dewine weathers the storm and keeps the seat in Ohio. I think this race should be moved up a few notches. Rhode Island and New Jersey are propably placed correctly. Tennessee is propably more vulnerable than Mo. They should propably switch places. Maryland, I believe, should be lower than #8. Mike Steele is a great candidate with alot of money. Cardin has been defined as "the good ol' boy candidate" by Mcfume already. He only got 45% of the democratic vote. With Zeese, the Liberterian, Green and Maryland Populist party nominee trying to take votes from Steele and Cardin, he will get the most from Cardin. I think Zeese will take prolly the whole 5% of dems. that voted for Rales in the primary plus some. Cardin is down to 95% of dems. How many disenchanted black dem. voters can Steele muster? I think quite a few. With Mcfume's assertion that "Democrats want blacks in the voting booth, but not in office." Plus, Mcfume hasn't endorsed Cardin yet and has said good things about Steele. This combined, plus the funds Steele has, can very well be a formula for victory for Steele. I think Maryland should be moved down, Steele has a great chance. While it seems generous, I can't think of a better race than Washington at #9 for the reasons you mentioned. Virginia at #10, no way! I think Allen wins this race. I think with Bouchard, Michigan should get the #10 slot. It looks like the GOP will really play there. My view on your top 10!

The Preznit is desperate to cover his (and his thugs') law-breaking backside. He can smell the turning tide. That is why he is now apoplectic about demands for accountability. Mad King George wants the War Act overturned so that he and the other war criminals -- Cheney, Rumsfeld, Rice, Wolfowitz, and Perle -- can escape indictments in the future.

He may well succeed, for the moment...

Just look at Chile, which just stripped Pinochet and other criminals of their immunity, after so many years.

Justice will be done at some point.

Army deputy chief of staff for intelligence Lt. Gen Jeff Kimmons presented to reporters the military's new field manual on which interrogation techniques are allowed and which will be forbidden. Kimmons said that "No good intelligence is going to come from abusive practices. I think history tells us that. I think the empirical evidence of the last five years, hard years, tells us that. And, moreover, any piece of intelligence which is obtained under duress, through the use of abusive techniques, would be of questionable credibility, and additionally it would do more harm than good when it inevitably became known that abusive practices were used. And we can't afford to go there. Some of our most significant successes on the battlefield have been--in fact, I would say all of them, almost categorically all of them, have accrued from expert interrogators using mixtures of authorized humane interrogation practices, in clever ways that you would hope Americans would use them, to push the envelope within the bookends of legal, moral, and ethical, now as further refined by this field manual. So we don't need abusive practices in there."

Senator Felix "Macaca" Allen, right-wing chickenhawk, coward and racist extraordinaire, is in trouble.

This may be a hopeful sign that the average American is finding his/her moral compass again.

Dana Milbank performs on cue for Rove: Bark like a poodle, Dana! Squeal like a pig!

'Midterms. The always fickle Zeitgeist does a near 180. After expectations that Democrats could take the House, Republicans regain the edge by accusing the opposition of being in cahoots with Osama Bin Laden and other forms of high treason. Will the public fall for it for the third straight time? New polls point to "yes."

Economy. Wealthy denizens of political Washington are impervious to gas-price swings but learn from new polls that Americans are less worried. Gallon of gas drops to $2.62 from $3.04 a month earlier--causing a corresponding drop in Democrats' midterm prospects.'

If the republicans actually do keep the House for the above reasons, Americans have become so easily manipulated and soft and stupid that we don't stand a chance against whatever enemies we have.

"President Bush said yesterday that he senses a "Third Awakening" of religious devotion in the United States that has coincided with the nation's struggle with international terrorists, a war that he depicted as "a confrontation between good and evil."

In other words -- welcome to the New Crusades.

My reasoning is the same except Va. I think Webb will win by 5% and went out on a limb making my prediction a couple days ago. The attention the macaca/monkey thing is getting was the main reason for picking Webb with Allens' strong support for the war in Iraq a strong second. Va. has a large military community and the fine folks in the military cannot speak out against their Commander in Chief while on active duty on in the reserves without getting in a whole bunch of trouble. Remember [The Grass and Lawnmower] thing? It is there, make no mistake about it. I can't see those folks being much different about how they feel than the rest of the country.

10--Webb has an ideal candidate's bio, Allen has grabbed that AK-47 from the ad and shot himself in the foot, but w/o the money to back up the upstart dem (or a massive push by Warner) he falls just short. NC
9--McGavick is D-U-N, done. I'm from Washington; NO democrat, no matter how lukewarm (and Cantwell is definitely that), is going to blow a double digit lead in 8 weeks unless she's discovered to have a dead 13 y/o boy her basement in that time. NC
8--Ford has everything going his way, and the man has consistantly been reelected to TN as a Democrat, meaning he knows what he's doing. Dems +1
7--Remember, Bob Dole tied Clinton for 72 hours after that matchup was set too; he never sniffed anything that close again and neither will Steele. NC
6--This is the one the Dems have GOT to have, if they're smart they'll make this their #1 target from here on in because the rest in one way or another should take care of themselves. McCaskill's saavy Rams PR "show's me" she can win; "show her the money" Schumer! Dems +2
5--Nothing I can say here that hasn't already been said. At the end of the day (rightly or wrongly) does anyone really think that the Democratic machine WON'T find a way to win here? NC
4--Chafee's fate was sealed the moment Spitzer and HRC won their primary. If you don't think they'll pony up some PAC dough and staff expertise to Whitehouse to pick off the bluest red seat in the Senate, you're crazy. Dems +3
3--My dog could run as a Dem in Ohio and be within the margin of error against a generic Republican right now. Brown is no dog. Dems +4
2--Cunningham, Delay, Ney, Burns. Besides the prospect of jail-time, the one thing these four men have in common is none will be worried about holding down 2 mortgages come January. Holy Cow, don't look now, but MT's a blue state people! Dems +5
1--A former Democrat sr. senator and now a pro-life Democrat jr. senator. Classic PA politics. Look out Brownback--you're governor may take you out next... Dems +6 to retake the Senate by 1

Add to my last post about Ford helping her. They are in the same media marker for a lot of the folks there and each will help the other if I am correct about the media market, which I'm not sure of and should have been in my last post. Sorry.

John you may be referring to me about a post I made a long time ago. The fact remains that a "feeling" about something can not be ignored. When you or any one does not a "feeling" about something they have very little knowledge of the specific event but are well versed in the field and the subject is raised, in my opinion, it would be almost a given that someone would have some reaction [feeling] about it. If memory serves me McCaskill was given zilch of a chance only about two months ago and now is pretty well even given the campaigh Ford is running will surely help her also. Like they say, a lifetime in a political campaign can be mighty short indeed.

You provide no evidence to back up your "feelings" regarding the Missouri Senate race In fact, Mr. "we believe in polls," McCaskill leads in the three most recent independent polls released - albeit, all within the margin of error - but the polls are consistent. So, either you need to explain why those three polls are off-the-mark or - please - stop making these statements that are not grounded in anything other than your own hunches or biases.

JEP: You are so rite-on about Olberman. He is my favorite of the talking boom booms. At least he comes across in a funny manner and shore duees get his point across with a good laugh to boot. I do watch O'reilly and the plain out false stuff he puts out would be funny as well, if only he did not appear to actually believe his own junk. This MSM Liberal myth is about on a par with Superman. The dems have so much truth going for them and yet they are not using it. Makes me wonder if they are holding back until a couple weeks before the election to have maximum effect or just missing it.

About the Santorum/Casey debate: when Santorum said (paraphrasing) "I think GW has been a great president", well, thats about the 2,500 reason to vote against Slick Rick....

Perhaps there was a time when republicans were a party to look up to when they focused on tax & business issues..Now, it's all about them shoving their religious views down everyone's throats & legislating morality ie: ban pornography, ban strip clubs, ban Howard Stern, banning everything that doesn't fit into their self-centered & self-righteous universe...

I'll never vote for a republican again in any election...

drindl: I noticed the same thing. Hillary was only trying to do her job for NY. The hype put on this going back to the many dems trying to get help for the folks that really put their own lives on the line during the immediate aftermath of the planes crashing and cleanup that followed. The repubs wanted to build "Bridges to nowhere". Tax cuts for the wealthy. Not giving our troops adequate equiptment to fight a war for oil/money and not going after the true enemy Osama bin Laden. Who BTW was the main caracter responsible for the twin towers and around 3,000 innocent lives. All of a sudden the administration says they would do the same thing again the same way. I just can not get this thru this thick skull of mine.

"Still don't understand why National DEms dont go negative on culture of corruption. I would already have an ad up that shows a picture of Katherine Harris, Conrad Burns, Bob Ney, Tom Delay, Duke Cunningham, and ask a basic question. What do these all of these have in common. Corruption...then show a face of Jack Abramoff."

Coming soon to a TV near you... Sounds like a great idea, but it will require a group like MoveOn or someone with serious resources (the DCCC, DLC, or DNC) to accomplish it on the national venue, where it would be EXTREMELY effective.

I wouldn't call it negative, either, this stuff isn't mudslinging, it is just "fact stating." There is a big difference from scrounging up decades-old dirt and pouring water on it to turn it into campaign mud.

While the neocon swift-booters may call an ad like this negative, it is really just the truth and someone needs to tell it. The MSM won't do it, but they won't turn down our advertising money if we want to do it.

From "I am sick unto nausea" post

"Save that crap for the Daily Kos or Redstate or whatever turns you on.

Can we please have just one place on the internet to talk politics in a detached, professional way?"

How long you been blogging?

Like I have said so many times, you aren't doing Cilliza, the Post or free speech any favors by demanding an academic discussion along thread lines you consider worthy.

A blog is a blog is a blog. You need a dedicated chatroom, not a blog. You can make up your own blog, and invite everyone to share your moderated thoughts, but don't expect a lot of traffic.

BLOGS THAT STAY ON THREAD LOSE READERSHIP.

IF YOU WANT TO START YOUR OWN BLOG, THEN YOU CAN DETERMINE ITS MODERATION. But last I heard this is Cilliza's blog, and he has, as yet, never asked anyone to assuage their message to match his ego.

People who call other people's free speech "that crap" should live alone on an island.

But whining about diversity in discussion, outside your personal circle of understanding and expertise, just makes you seem like an effete psuedo-intellectual snob.

PS Olberman is so cool.

Sorry that is so off thread, but, is it really?

Do you get it? Can you manage more than one concept at a time. Can you relate that simple statement, somehow, to the thread?

Or does the thought of calculating other opinions, that might require come creative thought and not just your own limited perspective, make you nauseated?

To the few who will actually read this late posting, here's a simple exercise in personal free will that does not infringe on others:
IF YOU DO NOT WANT TO READ A PARTICULAR POST BECAUSE YOU DO NOT CONSIDER IT GERMANE TO YOUR PERSONAL DISCUSSION, JUST SCROLL PAST IT.

'How many times does Bush have to fight tooth and nail for torture before we get the message? Remember how hard the Bush administration fought against the original McCain amendment against torture. Then when they lost, Bush signed a "signing statement" saying they could torture detainees anyway. Then the Supreme Court told him that he must abide by the Geneva Conventions -- which is the law of the land (this land!).

Now, he's back at it again. Challenging the Senate to allow him to continue torturing people despite the Senate's earlier bill and the Supreme Court decision. Man, this guy just loves torture. He can't get enough of it. Now, normally someone would be embarrassed to lobby so hard in public for something so clearly despicable. But Bush doesn't have to worry about that, because he has the press to cover his ass. Shhh, don't mention what we're really talking about, let people think Bush is "trying to protect them" with "tougher interrogations."

I know that the detainee interrogation bill is also about other issues, such as secret prisons and secret trials. The existence of these other issues does not justify the obfuscation of the critical torture issue. In fact, it makes it worse. I remember when I was a kid growing in America, we used to be enraged at third world countries that ran secret prisons and held secret trials. We thought it was barbaric. Has America changed so much?

I don't think so. But I do think we have barbaric leadership that the press is trying very hard to normalize (as usual -- for fear that they will be called liberal if they say the emperor has no clothes). If we're comfortable with what we used to abhor, then let's come out and say it. America is for torture, secret prisons and secret courts.'

http://www.smirkingchimp.com/node/620

"As we continue to monitor air and drinking water in and around New York City, and as EPA gets more comprehensive analysis of this monitoring data, I am relieved to be able to reassure New York and New Jersey residents that a host of potential contaminants are either not detectable or are below the Agency's concern levels....Results we have just received on drinking water quality show that not only is asbestos not detectable, but also we cannot detect any bacterial contamination, PCBs or pesticides." Christine Todd Whitman Sept. 21, 2001.

Even while her agency's own testing directly contradicted that statement.

In her more than 80 page decision, Federal Judge Deborah Batts denied Whitman immunity against the class action lawsuit and said:

"No reasonable person would have thought that telling thousands of people that it was safe to return to lower Manhattan, while knowing that such return could pose long-term health risks and other dire consequences, was conduct sanctioned by our laws....The allegations in this case of Whitman's reassuring and misleading statements of safety after the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks are without question conscience-shocking."

'Yesterday, Republican Senators blocked Senator Clinton's proposal to fund almost 2 billion for medical treatment for sick 9/11 responders. As reported in NYC's Daily News:

Senate leaders invoked parliamentary rules, saying Sen. Hillary Clinton's (D-N.Y.)amendment to a measure funding port security was not "germane."

This made me gag.But it shouldn't surprise ayone.

My face is red.... of course I meant Webb. Not enough coffee this morning. Thanks for catching this.

"accuse your opponent of doing what you are doing that way you will know what you are doing". The last 20 to 30 posts have, for the most part, been doing the exact same thing I have been trying or was trying to get across. Just go back and read the prior 20 to 30 posts and you will see how true the quote really is.

I kind of doubt bush expected this -- a rebellious senate? This rubber stamp republican congress, rebellious? I never would have expected it. But if these people are acting out of genuine conviction, I admire them. Of course, perhaps they are jsut running jfor re-election... either way, work for me.

'A rebellious Senate committee defied President Bush on Thursday and approved terror-detainee legislation he has vowed to block, deepening Republican conflict over terrorism and national security in the middle of election season.'

chris you are wrong on the missouri senate race mcaskill will carry the stlouis and kansas city areas by very big margins and mike dewine is in big trouble the whole gop party of ohio is in big trouble.

Scott, sorry didn't see your post. The Dems are (mostly) doing what they need to the Republicans on national security, and that's to try and take the issue and show how the Repubs have made us less safe. One thing I don't know why the Dems don't scream every time this administration boasts about there not being a terrorist attack since 9/11, because we're fighting them over there so we don't have to fight them here BS is this:
There was an EIGHT year break between the first WTC attack and 9/11. Doesn't that mean that Clinton should be given a ton of credit? But he didn't have to go create a war in the Middle East to engage them on another continent so that they wouldn't attack us again. Al Qaeda is a lot of things, but one thing they are not is stupid. They knew that if they managed to pull of 9/11 the way they planned, it would probably be a long time before they got another opportunity.
Dems need to get across that this administration has hurt out national security in ways that are immeasurable. We have ensured that generation upon generation of Muslims will hate us deeply. More so than they already did. We created a terrorist recruiting country in Iraq.

" If Chafee is to be defeated, the Dems must make it clear that a vote for Chafee is a vote for McConnell, Inhoffe and the rest of the GOP neanderthals who actually run the Senate"

Make it clear its a vote for Karl Rove and the national Republican machine that kept Chafee in the race; then