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Wrapping up the Ohio River Ramble

After logging a thousand road miles, Chris, Jim, and Chet returned Thursday night from the Ohio River Ramble, driving back to Washington from West Virginia in a fierce thunderstorm. As the Ramblers rest comfortably, we are left to contemplate what they found in this marathon trip through nine competitive Congressional districts in nine days.

"Spend nine days traveling through one of this year's most contested political regions and there is no mistaking the mood of voters: They are angry," Jim and Chris wrote in today's Washington Post. "Nor is there any doubting the mood of incumbent politicians: They are anxious."

Fair enough, but the Ramblers also warn that "it is a mistake to assume that anger and anxiety look and sound the same in these coveted precincts as they do in Washington."

The Ramblers found that "debates over Iraq and President Bush shadow virtually every competitive race, but they do not dominate the conversation -- which suits many Democrats just fine."

They also assert that "interviews with voters, candidates and operatives made plain why the old line about all politics being local is a truism: It really is true."

Read the full article and then offer your take on the Ramble and how these nine districts might effect the election in November. Will the Democrats be able to take control of one or both chambers? Will the Republicans weather the storm and come out on top?

By washingtonpost.com Editors |  September 29, 2006; 10:20 AM ET  | Category:  House , Ohio River Ramble
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Mr. Cillizza, this article embraces nothing more than empty, liberal-driven speculation (Re: Allen-Webb race)...As a reporter/journalist, you should know how unreliable all national polls are.

Posted by: | October 6, 2006 4:08 PM

If you support pedophiles in the Congress, vote Republican.

If you don't, vote Democratic.

Posted by: Robert Dare | October 6, 2006 12:42 PM

Momentum in Ohio race appears to be back to DeWine. Four most recent polls show him gaining since July, with three statistical dead heats. Brown's ad strategy is misguided. He has to do more than energize his base - he has not defined himself nor has he made any appeal to independents, who will decide this race. Except for the disastrous 9/11 ad, DeWine's strategy portraying himself as a consensus-builder and fence-mender works well with independents tired of partisanship. This has been Brown's race to lose since mid-summer and, so far, he is succeeding at blowing it.

Posted by: timohio | October 5, 2006 9:42 AM

Does anyone posting here live in the Illinois 14th (Hastert) or Illinois 19th (Shimkus) Congressional Districts?
It seems to me that Speaker Hastert and Congressmen were both derelict in their responsibilities concerning Congressman Foley's e mail.
Is there any evidence that their constituents see it that way?

Posted by: Mouse | October 3, 2006 8:33 AM

'Right now, the Bush Administration is still protecting our nation, and is preparing to use the military tribunal system to go after the enemy combatants in Gitmo. Has anyone looked up the Nuremburg Trials and how the Germans and Japanese were sentenced to death or time in prison for war crimes?'

Tina, the first thing you should know about the Nuremburg Trials is they were TRIALS, conducted in public with the defendants having the right to see and challenge the evidence against them.

Hermann Goering, the most senior living Nazi, was permitted to harangue and cross-examine prosecutors for weeks in front of the cameras and journalists. Because the victorious Allies knew it was the only way the verdict would be a credible, lasting example. And because they knew they were the good guys, and they had nothing to hide.

The second interesting thing that you don't know about the Nuremburg trials is that a new law, the law against "waging aggressive war", was applied for the first time. In fact it was the American prosecutor, Judge Robert Jackson, who insisted on using it.

That law later became Article Two of the United Nations. It is the very law that your government broke when it invaded Iraq.

Six men were hanged for breaking that law at Nuremburg. Fourteen "Class A war criminals" -- policymakers convicted of the same crime -- were hanged in Japan.

Posted by: OD | October 2, 2006 10:40 PM

Some people have a strange definition of protection. Bush has put us in MORE danger, not less. His antics have created more terrorists, not fewer.

The way Dems go after Condi will pale in comparison to the ways in which the right has gone after Hillary since she was First Lady of Arkansas.

Bush began an illegal invasion and has continued an illegal occupation of a sovereign nation that he knew posed no threat whatsoever to us. They knew Saddam had no military to speak of and was not "45 minutes from a launch" against us or our allies. I mean seriously, how would we react if some other government claimed that we were a threat to their national security (even though they had no support from the UN on this) and unilaterally (OK, bi-laterally) decided to invade us, overthrow our government, and then occupy our land, build military bases, and tell us they will leave when THEY decide they are ready (not when we want them to)? Something tells me we wouldn't be very welcoming of these "liberators" and rightly so. As someone who loves his country, I would fight tooth and nail to expel the invaders as many of the Iraqi people are doing now.

Its just a shame that our president has decided to use our military as pawns in his game of world domination.

Posted by: peixegato | October 2, 2006 12:49 AM

Wow, the liberals and the Dems seem to be crawling out from under a few rocks in here.

Lots of namecalling again, I see.

Anyway, I agree with the statement, "Last night Chris Matthews hit the nail on the head when he observed - Once you indicate you are going to run for President everything you ever did is in play."

So we got a hint of the Condi vs Hillary debate of 2008 with punch and counterpunch about Clinton and the Fox interview. You can bet the Dems will attack Condi while not using the same standard on Hillary. You will find the lack of logic or reasoning to back up their claims of whatever they will try to toss against Condi but will allow Hillary to get a pass. That is politics, but it will also happen in the media. I doubt reporters will hold up the same questions to Hillary as they ask Condi. On the matter of tough enough for the job, if you like how Condi said "what we did in the 8 months was at least as aggressive as what the Clinton Adm. did in the preceding years", then you probably a Bush supporter/Republican. If you think Hillary was right, and you swallow all of her malarkey, you would be a Democrat/libreral. Again, that is politics.

Right now, the Bush Administration is still protecting our nation, and is preparing to use the military tribunal system to go after the enemy combatants in Gitmo. Has anyone looked up the Nuremburg Trials and how the Germans and Japanese were sentenced to death or time in prison for war crimes? Before you anti-Bush people pull out your knives, go back and take a look at the length of time and the horrible crimes against humanity from these men. Only then can you start to understand what these military tribunals will be trying to do as far as punishment for cutting off heads, blowing up the USS Cole, blowing up an embassy or other buildings, and murdering children to place their bloody bodies on the doorsteps of their grieving parents.

Posted by: Tina | October 1, 2006 4:25 PM

Allen was in Congress from 1991 - 1993. According to Wikipedia, redistricting split his district. He moved to Northern Virginia for a possible run against incumbent Republican Frank Wolf, but instead chose to run for Governor.

BTW - I'm seeing enough stories about Webb and his past. It's just that I'm seeing more about Allen. Every time he's denies something which he did, it just extends the story. He's causing his own problems.

Last night Chris Matthews hit the nail on the head when he observed - Once you indicate you are going to run for President everything you ever did is in play.

It's Allen's stonewalling that's killing him. If his advisers are telling him to stonewall, then they should be fired. If he's ignoring advice not to do that, then we don't need him as President.

Posted by: Nor'Easter | September 30, 2006 2:30 PM

'Have you ever seen the media protect a candidate (Webb) and go after an ex-governor, congressman, and sitting senator with so little proof?'

I don't believe George Allen ever served as a congressman, but he was a Virginia state senator before winning the governor's job and then the US Senate seat. Minor minutiae, but any trivia buffs know for sure?

Posted by: sturmgrenadier | September 29, 2006 4:22 PM

I have never observed a sense of shame in a Dem. Perhaps its a cultural thing or a left-over lesson learned from slick willie.

Posted by: kingofzouk | September 29, 2006 3:48 PM

From CC's most recent posting, I think it's safe to add Florida 16 to RMill's list.

Posted by: Zathras | September 29, 2006 3:43 PM

'At a PBS panel discussion featuring several prominent journalists, Carl Bernstein asked everyone in the room who voted for Bush to raise his hand -- and, lo, no one did. '

anyone sane person with a sense of shame wouldn't have admitted it.

Posted by: jane | September 29, 2006 3:28 PM

Man, Karen just drools over that porn, doesn't she? The more 'conservative' they call themselves, the kinkier they actually are.

Posted by: drindl | September 29, 2006 3:20 PM

so when an "esteemed" newspaper reports selectively filtered information as news and doesn't offer the other side or issue corrections, this is not bias? going after a president who is under impeachment is just not the same. that is actually news. running a story from many months back re-packaged as "news" is not bias? I guess if you close your eyes and plug your ears you won't see it. I am not talking about editorial pages, I am talking about front pages which should be reporting fact, not opinion, not fiction. need further proof - :
"former Washington Post reporter Tom Edsall ballparked the ratio of Democrats to Republicans in newsrooms as "15-25 to 1." At a PBS panel discussion featuring several prominent journalists, Carl Bernstein asked everyone in the room who voted for Bush to raise his hand -- and, lo, no one did. " NRO

http://www.mediaresearch.org/biasbasics/biasbasics1.asp If you want to see a professional job on this topic but please stop chanting nonsense. Accept your advantage graciously and try to make use of it.

Posted by: kingofzouk | September 29, 2006 3:19 PM

RMill - Thanks for filling in for Chris.

I think that Virginia is too high as it is still not yet likely to change. Haven't seen any good data which indicates that Webb will defeat Allen, in spite of all the bad news for Allen.

Posted by: Nor'Easter | September 29, 2006 3:06 PM

"If the exit polls don't match election returns - was the case in 2004 then we'll know something isn't Kosher." - What if it's simply that the voters being polled just lie? As I'm beginning to believe more and more with polls.

In Rhode Island they're still trying to determine who won certain races from the Sept. 12th primary. There are more votes in the machines than people who signed in at the polling place. Whether or not they are Diebold machines is not mentioned in the news items.

Henry Kissinger - He's not Dr. Strangelove, he's Freddy Krueger.

Posted by: Nor'Easter | September 29, 2006 3:00 PM

I guess killing a deer, ripping off its head and sticking it in the mailbox of an African-American family is just perfectly A-OK to people like Karen. Amazing.

I agree with most everyone here that I am glad the ORR is done. Instead of getting a feeling for the atmosphere of the region, Ive come away with a feeling that the postings here were just two people's opinions. Oh well.

Posted by: F&B | September 29, 2006 2:50 PM

Media bias stories are hysterical to me. Clinton got pounded worse than any president since Nixon, yet the Right still argues that there is a "liberal media." That's just silly. Now, there is certainly a "sensationalist" bias in the media, but really that's simply a reflection of our capitalist system - which the right really ought to appreciate.

As far as Webb and Allen go, looks like we're busting out the standard Republican playbook. If you can't answer for YOUR behavior, try to smear the other guy to make things as much of a wash as you can. FYI -- Webb wrote historical fiction books about the south. Is it really surprising that they include examples of racism? Also, if you really are such prudes that sexual descriptions bother you I suggest you avoid Lynn Cheneys fiction. She likes to write about lesbian sex in great detail. Hey, I'm not buying her books - or Webb's in all liklihood - but somehow me thinks that such descriptions aren't the equivalent of Allen allegedly stuffing a dear head into a black family's mail box. Thoughts?

Posted by: Colin | September 29, 2006 2:45 PM

THe NYT is even worse, although that secret is now out. Once a year the WaPo publishes a middle of the road article on something and that maintains it cred on believability. The NYT never publishes anything objective, even movie reviews manage to get in a slap at Bush. but after the fiasco last week of the NIE being totally distorted, even Katie Couric will know.

Posted by: kingofzouk | September 29, 2006 1:50 PM

I guess the blond bimbo reporter won't ask Allen if he denies he writes porn and uses the N Word as a daily part of the English language. Have you ever seen the media protect a candidate (Webb) and go after an ex-governor, congressman, and sitting senator with so little proof? The WaPo has truly belittled itself it in its partisan coverage and bias favoring Webb. If not for the internet, people might believe what is printed by the DNC spouses who control the news and editorial departments of the WaPo. As readership declines, so do their morals, professionalism, esteem and honor.

Posted by: Karen | September 29, 2006 1:46 PM

RMill,

I think you might be underestimating the race in Alaska for Governor. It should easily be 16 and I count it as not such a long shot. While Palin could beat Knowles in a 1 on 1 race and get close to 55% of the vote, We still have the candidacy of Andrew Halcro, who is just starting to get his campaign into gear. Moving alaska to 16 makes 7-16 as possible but lean holds and anything beyond 16 as unlikely, with Florida as just barely unlikely.

Posted by: Rob Millette | September 29, 2006 1:39 PM

What is going on in Indiana that would cause the Rs to lose 4 seats there? I would rather not hear the usual blather but instead, something intelligent.

Posted by: kingofzouk | September 29, 2006 1:35 PM

Well he is a fiction writer. As in Reagan would support him and he is going to win - pure fiction.

Posted by: kingofzouk | September 29, 2006 1:33 PM

JIM WEBB has a very dirty mind, and uses the N word ALOT!!!

Let's read some of his family values work.


Snake sees his mother on the bed: "She looked as if she were carefully attempting to re-create a picture from some long-forgotten men's magazine...She was naked underneath the robe....and the robe fell loosely away, revealing her. Snake shrugged resignedly." -- P.9


"N*ggers, Jesus Christ. I never thought Cannonball was like that. Get 'em back in the rear and they turn to sh*t." -- p.217


"He saw the invitation with every bouncing breast and curved hip...He was thirteen...She was fifteen...In a few moments she drew him to her and he murmured in his quiet voice, 'I am still small.' 'You are large enough,' she answered. And he found he was." -- P.280-281


"...(T)hey want stupid n*ggers, they'd all pay to see a dumb*ss n*gger." -- P.302

From Something To Die For:


"Fogarty...watch[ed] a naked young stripper do the splits over a banana. She stood back up, her face smiling proudly and her round breasts glistening from a spotlight in the dim bar, and left the banana on the bar, cut in four equal sections by the muscles of her vagina." -- P.36


"We're on our way to becoming the world's recreational center, a nation [USA] not to be taken seriously. Where are we still the undisputed leader? Music. Movies. Fast food. Drugs. . . . the billboards fifty years from now as you come over the bridge and stop at the tollbooths outside Manhattan: A smiling beautiful naked woman, and the sign saying AMERICAN *SS IS OUR MOST IMPORTANT PRODUCT." -- P.199

From A Country Such As This:


"Don't know why I crave watermelon the way I have over the past few weeks. Jimmy says I must have a n*gger in the woodpile." -- P.34


"You're so nice, sometimes I forget you're a Yankee. What you all don't understand is, some of my best friends really are n*ggers. N*ggers are just different, that's all. What's wrong with that?" -- P.34


Jimmy: "He got that n*gger band in there again. It sounds like a d*mn juke joint."

Red: Personally, "Jimmy, I like n*gger music. In fact, I even like Negroes!"

Jimmy: "Well, so do I. I think everybody should own at least one." -- P.42

I'm an Old South n*gger, he thought suddenly, smiling and nodding to Ambassador somebody or other. Yes, massa. Smilin over here, massa. Pickin it up over her, massa. Whooee. My mind right, massa." -- P.122


Discussing retiring to Miami, FBI agent Drought says: "and the n*ggers are everywhere, you're not going to get away from them." -- P.208


Two North Vietnamese nurses attended Red in the hospital, flirting with him coyly, until one day when one of them came to him, took off her top, stuck her breasts in Red's mouth, and masturbated him." -- P.398

Posted by: Karen | September 29, 2006 1:30 PM

JIM WEBB has a very dirty mind, and uses the N word ALOT!!!

Let's read some of his family values work.


Snake sees his mother on the bed: "She looked as if she were carefully attempting to re-create a picture from some long-forgotten men's magazine...She was naked underneath the robe....and the robe fell loosely away, revealing her. Snake shrugged resignedly." -- P.9


"N*ggers, Jesus Christ. I never thought Cannonball was like that. Get 'em back in the rear and they turn to sh*t." -- p.217


"He saw the invitation with every bouncing breast and curved hip...He was thirteen...She was fifteen...In a few moments she drew him to her and he murmured in his quiet voice, 'I am still small.' 'You are large enough,' she answered. And he found he was." -- P.280-281


"...(T)hey want stupid n*ggers, they'd all pay to see a dumb*ss n*gger." -- P.302

From Something To Die For:


"Fogarty...watch[ed] a naked young stripper do the splits over a banana. She stood back up, her face smiling proudly and her round breasts glistening from a spotlight in the dim bar, and left the banana on the bar, cut in four equal sections by the muscles of her vagina." -- P.36


"We're on our way to becoming the world's recreational center, a nation [USA] not to be taken seriously. Where are we still the undisputed leader? Music. Movies. Fast food. Drugs. . . . the billboards fifty years from now as you come over the bridge and stop at the tollbooths outside Manhattan: A smiling beautiful naked woman, and the sign saying AMERICAN *SS IS OUR MOST IMPORTANT PRODUCT." -- P.199

From A Country Such As This:


"Don't know why I crave watermelon the way I have over the past few weeks. Jimmy says I must have a n*gger in the woodpile." -- P.34


"You're so nice, sometimes I forget you're a Yankee. What you all don't understand is, some of my best friends really are n*ggers. N*ggers are just different, that's all. What's wrong with that?" -- P.34


Jimmy: "He got that n*gger band in there again. It sounds like a d*mn juke joint."

Red: Personally, "Jimmy, I like n*gger music. In fact, I even like Negroes!"

Jimmy: "Well, so do I. I think everybody should own at least one." -- P.42

I'm an Old South n*gger, he thought suddenly, smiling and nodding to Ambassador somebody or other. Yes, massa. Smilin over here, massa. Pickin it up over her, massa. Whooee. My mind right, massa." -- P.122


Discussing retiring to Miami, FBI agent Drought says: "and the n*ggers are everywhere, you're not going to get away from them." -- P.208


Two North Vietnamese nurses attended Red in the hospital, flirting with him coyly, until one day when one of them came to him, took off her top, stuck her breasts in Red's mouth, and masturbated him." -- P.398

Posted by: Karen | September 29, 2006 1:28 PM

I did not know about the other site. but after reviewing it, it seems to be reporting the same information. these results are just polling results, from Zogby in the list I posted. This is how the second site makes its predictions:
"It uses a mathematical model based on pundits, polls, and past voting to determine a projection for every race."

My math training leads me to be skeptical but it is fun anyway and you know how these predictions can be, even the night before or afternoon of.

I don't believe there is any (un)evenhandedness in this, the results will be what they will be. I have always been fair but usually insist upon some standards of evidence which is almost always lacking in opinion on this particular site. My opinionn certainly differs from the average opinion on this site, but my main complaint is that my facts also differ. that is not supposed to happen.
It is interesting to me that the historical advantage of the out party in year 6 of a President's run has been totally squandered by the Libs. they have not been able to turn the war into any sort of deficit for the Rs and the economy is hurting thier positions with its robust improvements. but if the Ds can't win in this environment, what will it take? a little nibbling around the edges (2 Senate and 9 house seats - no effect really)is probably not what Dean has in mind. This should point out a major flaw in the D strategy. Everyone knows they have no ideas and they have even stopped disputing this. when the Rs were out of power for so long, they went to the think tanks and they invented some new policies. If you are so progressive why do you support the status quo on schools, retirement, health care, etc.?

Posted by: kingofzouk | September 29, 2006 1:19 PM

koz, i'm impressed. most conservatives distrust electoral-vote.com and prefer the openly hard-right electionprojection.com

did you just not know about the other site, or has some degree of even-handedness leaked into your head? ;-)

Posted by: david | September 29, 2006 12:57 PM

koz, i'm impressed. most conservatives distrust electoral-vote.com and prefer the openly hard-right electionprojection.com

did you just not know about the other site, or has some degree of even-handedness leaked into your head? ;-)

Posted by: david | September 29, 2006 12:56 PM

..I don't think there's any question...if there was another attack, it would all be over. Martial law would be declared, end of Constitional protections, dissenters declared enemy combatants and held without trial. I kind of expect that to happen anyway, before the next two years is up.

Of course it's possible they might say it was proof R's need to be-relected because something even worse would happen if Dems were in power. And from what I've seen so far, lotsa people are plenty stupid and brainwashed enough to believe it.

Posted by: drindl | September 29, 2006 12:56 PM

Chris, sounds like you guys are taking a dodge, come on, give us your prediction. You spent enough time in this region to give us a calculated guess. Will the dems take the House; Yes or No?

Posted by: bhoomes | September 29, 2006 12:45 PM

This looks like a pretty good prediction. from electoral-vote:


State Dem Dem % GOP GOP % Ind Ind %
PA Bob Casey 46 Rick Santorum* 40
MN Amy Klobuchar 49 Mark Kennedy 40
VA Jim Webb 44 George Allen* 49
NJ Bob Menendez* 47 Tom Kean, Jr. 41
MO Claire McCaskill 45 Jim Talent* 47
OH Sherrod Brown 45 Mike DeWine* 41
WA Maria Cantwell* 50 Mike McGavick 43
CT Ned Lamont 44 Alan Schlesinger 05 Joe Lieberman* 46
TN Harold Ford, Jr. 42 Bob Corker 48
MI Debbie Stabenow* 49 Mike Bouchard 42
MD Ben Cardin 52 Michael Steele 39
AZ Jim Pederson 44 Jon Kyl* 51

Posted by: kingofzouk | September 29, 2006 12:37 PM

I don't have a problem with NJ being on the list but the polling for Corker in Tennessee is just as bad, and Chafee has been consistently down in the polls in RI. Taken with the huge cash advantage that Menendez has over Kean I see it as more of a 7 or 8 on the list.

Posted by: Andy R | September 29, 2006 12:28 PM

Thought-provoking question for the crowd; If a serious terrorist incident happened now, in US, before election, (not necessarily 9-11, but ugly enough) and it made everyone question the regime's old mantra "we've made America safer" and "Iraq was meant to fight'em over there, not here", how would the regime spin it ?
Would they; 1) say it was Democrats fault because they foolishly and unpatrioticaly raised debate & doubt over our commitment and thus inspired a terror attack?, or 2) say it's proof of Iraq strategy success with terrorists desperatly in their last throes?, or 3) declare something akin to martial law and suspend elections?

Posted by: | September 29, 2006 12:26 PM

one more thing...kansas doesn't belong anywhere on the list. of the the three heavy duty red states with dem gvnrs (kansas, oklahoma and wyoming) sebelius is by far the best positioned for any easy win. not only is her opponent a sorry excuse for a candidate, but she brilliantly plucked the former republican state chair who wisely abandoned his party for the dems as her running mate.

Posted by: david | September 29, 2006 12:17 PM

Glad to see you back RMill. However, you have missed the Texas governor's race. It's closer than 1/2 of the ones you list. Again, being a 4-way race makes it extremely unpredictable, so it belong there somewhere.

Posted by: Zathras | September 29, 2006 12:12 PM

'I don't know about you, but all the latest news, combined with chickenhawk Bush calling into question the patriotism of Dems, makes me fear for this country's soul'

No kidding. It's so disheartening to see that people will so easily believe the outrageous lies of a disgraceful AWOL wartime deserter like bush and a craven cowardly chickenhawk loser like rumsfeld, over people who served honorably.

But it's a cult mentality, because thats what R's in this country have become -- zombie members of a death cult. I expect them all to start Seig Heiling bush any minute now.

Posted by: drindl | September 29, 2006 12:11 PM

well done rmill, especially on nj. people should not underestimate how fed up many new jerseyans (sp?) are with the democratic party machine, which menendez is the living embodiment of (had corzine appointed interim governor cody to the seat, this race wouldn't even be close). moreover, tom kean's name is simple political gold as his father still has huge fans, on both sides of the political divide.

however, i would strenously disagree with two of your senate picks. polling for quite awhile now has shown the maryland and arizona races to be much closer than either the michigan or nevada races (though none of these will actually switch parties).

but overall, well done.

ps i get my polling data from www.electoral-vote.com...how about you?

Posted by: david | September 29, 2006 12:09 PM

Much agreed on the need to get back to the Lines, and am a little tired of this Ohio River Ramble stuff.

RMill, thanks for the line, good to see you on the site. But you're missing Delay's seat (which is poised to go Dem with write-in complications). I'd also swap PA-6 with PA-10, and think IA-1 should be #2 or 3.

Largely agree on Senate and gov rankings, except that maybe IA gov's race may be more competitive

Posted by: Greg-G | September 29, 2006 12:06 PM

I did the MA numbers but they have fluctuated whereas OH has been very consistant for much of the year. I would contend that the TOP 6 are nearly all likely occurances and the real questions come with MI at #7 and end at #15 NV. The final five #16-#20 are highly unlikely IMO.

SC added with some recent and surprising poor polling numbers for Sanford within 4-9 points in the last month or so.

NJ US Senate polling is all over the place. When Menendez is up it is by 1 or 2 pts. When Kean is up, it is 4 or 6 pts. I think NJ will be the showcase for anti-incumbancy to be played out as will Michigan in the gubernatorial races.

The House looks very problematic for the Republicans despite the ramblings in the Ohio River Valley (could have gone a few more days to look at WV 1). I believe that all of the seats could possibly turn over, giving Dems control just from this list. There are other seats that could be listed but for which I have not seen numbers for.

Still 5-1/2 weeks to go but thats how things look to me right now.

Posted by: RMill | September 29, 2006 11:55 AM

The breathless questions posed by Chris ....

"Will the Democrats be able to take control of one or both chambers? Will the Republicans weather the storm and come out on top?"....

should say, "Will the Democrats be able to have counted the votes cast for them? Will the Republicans terrorist-threat storm win the day?"

Sad.

http://whathappenedtomycountry.blogspot.com


Posted by: Truth Hunter | September 29, 2006 11:53 AM

Great wrap-up analysis of the 'Ramble'. Trying to predict trends and winners is, as you say, ambiguous & difficult. But we are talking about a mid-term here - against backdrop of generally unpopular Republican Washington ...unpopular even in diehard GOP districts. Therefore you've got to give an overal edge to Democrats.
If these elections seem to boil down to mainly local issues - and the forecast is ambiguous - then smart money says Iraq, Bush, Republican scandal (especially Ohio) is a whole lot more tangible & credible than splashing Nancy Pelosi all over the airwaves.
But then again, maybe Nancy Pelosi & Ted Kennedy really is the answer for Republicans seeing as how many people are just so set in their ways & beliefs (you know - 'values' voters) that threats of taxes and gays will always trump Huge lies over war, outsourcing jobs, and trampling civil liberties & Constitution.

Posted by: | September 29, 2006 11:49 AM

... and I will be hitting the streets this time. You know there'll be problems. They intend for there to be. That's why the R's blocked a Dem resolution to provide back-up paper ballots. There's no other reason for them to do that except they intend to cheat. Which is what they always do.

'BAGHDAD, Iraq (CNN) -- "They killed my mother! God help me, they killed my mother!" Osama Rumani sobbed into his cell phone before handing it to his brother Ali, who was crying even harder.

At the other end of the line were relatives in Canada. As Ali spoke to them, Osama cursed the unknown killers through his tears: "May God orphan you. May you lose your mother and go through this pain. Shoot her once, shoot her twice, break her leg, her arms, but why this?"

Osama covered his face as he cried. His mother, Umm Luma, was an ordinary citizen, well-loved in the neighborhood where she was gunned down in front of her home. (Watch a son describe picking up his mother's brains -- 2:46)

In recent months, terrorists and death squads in Iraq have increased attacks on civilians. Though the Pentagon says the sectarian violence is not tantamount to civil war, it concedes that the swelling sectarian strife has produced an upsurge in attacks, kidnappings and execution-style killings.

According to a Pentagon report, Iraqi casualties jumped 51 percent this summer, and the Baghdad coroner's office reported receiving 3,400 bodies in June and July. Ninety percent of them had been killed execution-style, the report said.'

Posted by: drindl | September 29, 2006 11:44 AM

How are we supposed to have a 2-party system when we don't even come close to spending what the GOP is gonna spend in the contested regions?

I don't know about you, but all the latest news, combined with chickenhawk Bush calling into question the patriotism of Dems, makes me fear for this country's soul.

http://scootmandubious.blogspot.com/2006/09/loss-will-steal-far-more-than-just_28.html

Posted by: scootmandubious | September 29, 2006 11:42 AM

I just hope their is no Diebold style distortions come November. If the exit polls don't match election returns - was the case in 2004 then we'll know something isn't Kosher.

http://intrepidliberaljournal.blogspot.com

Posted by: Intrepid Liberal Journal | September 29, 2006 11:40 AM


For uncensored news please bookmark:

www.wsws.org
www.takingaim.info
www.onlinejournal.com
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US Congress legalizes torture and indefinite detention

The legislation adopted by the House of Representatives Wednesday and the Senate Thursday, legalizing the Bush administration's policy of torture and indefinite detention without trial, as well as kangaroo-court procedures for Guantánamo detainees, marks a watershed for the United States.

For the first time in American history, Congress and the White House have agreed to set aside the provisions of the Constitution and the Bill of Rights and formally adopt methods traditionally identified with police states.

This bill is the outcome of a protracted process of decay of American democracy, which has accompanied the immense growth in social inequality and reached a turning point in the stolen election of 2000. In early December of 2000, on the eve of the US Supreme Court ruling that halted the counting of votes in Florida and awarded the presidency to George W. Bush, who had lost the popular vote nationally to his Democratic opponent Al Gore, David North, the national secretary of the Socialist Equality Party of the US and chairman of the international editorial board of the World Socialist Web Site, in a report on the US election crisis said:

"What the decision of this court will reveal is how far the American ruling class is prepared to go in breaking with traditional bourgeois-democratic and constitutional norms. Is it prepared to sanction ballot fraud and the suppression of votes and install in the White House a candidate who has attained that office through blatantly illegal and anti-democratic methods?

"A substantial section of the bourgeoisie, and perhaps even a majority of the US Supreme Court, is prepared to do just that. There has been a dramatic erosion of support within the ruling elites for the traditional forms of bourgeois democracy in the United States."

The Supreme Court ruling and the refusal of the Democratic Party to oppose it demonstrated that there remained no significant constituency within the American ruling elite for the defense of democratic rights.

The battery of police state measures enacted by the Bush administration, without any serious opposition from within the political establishment, has confirmed this analysis.

The Military Commission Act of 2006 will do far more than set down the procedures to be used to rubber-stamp the incarceration of prisoners at Guantánamo Bay and other US-run detention camps throughout the world. It attacks the rights of all American citizens as well as all legal residents and other immigrants, who will now be subject to the threat of arrest and imprisonment for life, on the order of the president alone, without judicial review.

The legislation now goes back to the House of Representatives for a final vote Friday, to reconcile minor language differences between the two versions. President Bush is expected to receive the bill for signing by the weekend.

Under the terms of this law, the president may designate any person as an "unlawful enemy combatant," to be rounded up by intelligence agents and jailed indefinitely without legal recourse. The law defines an "unlawful enemy combatant" as "an individual engaged in hostilities against the United States" who is not a regular member of an opposing army.

Given the Bush administration's elastic view as to what constitutes "hostilities," this definition has the potential to erase any legal distinction between an actual Al Qaeda terrorist, an Arab immigrant who makes a charitable donation to Lebanese relief, and an American college student who clashes with police during a protest demonstration against the Iraq war.

The legislation passed the House Wednesday with the support of 34 Democrats, who joined 219 Republicans in the lopsided vote of 253-168. The Senate adopted the bill the next day, by an even wider 65-34 margin, with 12 Democrats joining a near-unanimous Republican bloc.

Before voting on the overall bill, senators defeated four amendments: to restore habeas corpus rights for prisoners, defeated 51-48; to increase congressional oversight of the CIA torture program, which lost 53-46; to impose a five-year limit on the military commissions, which lost 52-47; and to ban specific, named torture techniques, which lost by a similar margin.

The sweeping legislation meets all the desires of the Bush administration except for an explicit repeal of the Geneva Convention. The White House agreed to slightly weaker language that gives the president the power to "interpret" the Geneva Convention to permit lesser forms of torture.

Its major provisions include:

* Authorizing the president to establish military commissions to prosecute detainees taken into US custody, either overseas or within the United States.

* Giving the military commissions power to determine punishment, up to and including death.

* Rules of evidence that permit hearsay evidence and testimony coerced from witnesses.

* Permitting the use of testimony obtained by "cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment" if the torture took place before December 30, 2005, when it was banned by Congress.

* Allowing prosecutors to withhold from defendants evidence given to a jury, if it involves classified information, and substitute unclassified summaries.

* Stripping US courts of jurisdiction over detainees, and stripping detainees of their right to seek a writ of habeas corpus.


Violations of the Constitution

Many of the provisions of this legislation are flagrant violations of the US Constitution. This was acknowledged by Republican Senator Arlen Specter, chairman of the Judiciary Committee, who

For the rest of this article please go to:

http://www.wsws.org/articles/2006/sep2006/tort-s29.shtml

Posted by: che | September 29, 2006 11:20 AM


For uncensored news please bookmark:

www.wsws.org
www.takingaim.info
www.onlinejournal.com
otherside123.blogspot.com

US Congress legalizes torture and indefinite detention

The legislation adopted by the House of Representatives Wednesday and the Senate Thursday, legalizing the Bush administration's policy of torture and indefinite detention without trial, as well as kangaroo-court procedures for Guantánamo detainees, marks a watershed for the United States.

For the first time in American history, Congress and the White House have agreed to set aside the provisions of the Constitution and the Bill of Rights and formally adopt methods traditionally identified with police states.

This bill is the outcome of a protracted process of decay of American democracy, which has accompanied the immense growth in social inequality and reached a turning point in the stolen election of 2000. In early December of 2000, on the eve of the US Supreme Court ruling that halted the counting of votes in Florida and awarded the presidency to George W. Bush, who had lost the popular vote nationally to his Democratic opponent Al Gore, David North, the national secretary of the Socialist Equality Party of the US and chairman of the international editorial board of the World Socialist Web Site, in a report on the US election crisis said:

"What the decision of this court will reveal is how far the American ruling class is prepared to go in breaking with traditional bourgeois-democratic and constitutional norms. Is it prepared to sanction ballot fraud and the suppression of votes and install in the White House a candidate who has attained that office through blatantly illegal and anti-democratic methods?

"A substantial section of the bourgeoisie, and perhaps even a majority of the US Supreme Court, is prepared to do just that. There has been a dramatic erosion of support within the ruling elites for the traditional forms of bourgeois democracy in the United States."

The Supreme Court ruling and the refusal of the Democratic Party to oppose it demonstrated that there remained no significant constituency within the American ruling elite for the defense of democratic rights.

The battery of police state measures enacted by the Bush administration, without any serious opposition from within the political establishment, has confirmed this analysis.

The Military Commission Act of 2006 will do far more than set down the procedures to be used to rubber-stamp the incarceration of prisoners at Guantánamo Bay and other US-run detention camps throughout the world. It attacks the rights of all American citizens as well as all legal residents and other immigrants, who will now be subject to the threat of arrest and imprisonment for life, on the order of the president alone, without judicial review.

The legislation now goes back to the House of Representatives for a final vote Friday, to reconcile minor language differences between the two versions. President Bush is expected to receive the bill for signing by the weekend.

Under the terms of this law, the president may designate any person as an "unlawful enemy combatant," to be rounded up by intelligence agents and jailed indefinitely without legal recourse. The law defines an "unlawful enemy combatant" as "an individual engaged in hostilities against the United States" who is not a regular member of an opposing army.

Given the Bush administration's elastic view as to what constitutes "hostilities," this definition has the potential to erase any legal distinction between an actual Al Qaeda terrorist, an Arab immigrant who makes a charitable donation to Lebanese relief, and an American college student who clashes with police during a protest demonstration against the Iraq war.

The legislation passed the House Wednesday with the support of 34 Democrats, who joined 219 Republicans in the lopsided vote of 253-168. The Senate adopted the bill the next day, by an even wider 65-34 margin, with 12 Democrats joining a near-unanimous Republican bloc.

Before voting on the overall bill, senators defeated four amendments: to restore habeas corpus rights for prisoners, defeated 51-48; to increase congressional oversight of the CIA torture program, which lost 53-46; to impose a five-year limit on the military commissions, which lost 52-47; and to ban specific, named torture techniques, which lost by a similar margin.

The sweeping legislation meets all the desires of the Bush administration except for an explicit repeal of the Geneva Convention. The White House agreed to slightly weaker language that gives the president the power to "interpret" the Geneva Convention to permit lesser forms of torture.

Its major provisions include:

* Authorizing the president to establish military commissions to prosecute detainees taken into US custody, either overseas or within the United States.

* Giving the military commissions power to determine punishment, up to and including death.

* Rules of evidence that permit hearsay evidence and testimony coerced from witnesses.

* Permitting the use of testimony obtained by "cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment" if the torture took place before December 30, 2005, when it was banned by Congress.

* Allowing prosecutors to withhold from defendants evidence given to a jury, if it involves classified information, and substitute unclassified summaries.

* Stripping US courts of jurisdiction over detainees, and stripping detainees of their right to seek a writ of habeas corpus.


Violations of the Constitution

Many of the provisions of this legislation are flagrant violations of the US Constitution. This was acknowledged by Republican Senator Arlen Specter, chairman of the Judiciary Committee, who

Posted by: che | September 29, 2006 11:19 AM

Finally...I was bored after the first Ramble. It was a good excuse for a vacation but you could have chosen a vacation spot with some beaches. Can we get back to the fix now? I have not been reading since you've been rambling.

Posted by: Scott | September 29, 2006 11:17 AM

Come on, moderators. When are you going to resume the nationwide rankings and analysis? This Ohio/WV River series has been somewhat interesting (but apparently has been a resource hog), but you really should have provided it as an addition to your usual coverage which is sorely missed. Please return to the usual format soon. It's been a while.

Posted by: sturmgrenadier | September 29, 2006 11:15 AM

'Republicans have become so accustomed to using the phrase "cut and run" that they probably mumble it while sleeping and their childlike leader, George W. Bush, babbled it again yesterday, saying at yet another GOP fundraiser that "the party of FDR and the party of Harry Truman has become the party of cut and run."

That takes a ton of nerve coming from a Chickenhawk like Bush, who used Daddy's connections to avoid Vietnam and then went AWOL from his cushy stateside post. But we've heard that empty phrase from the cretins in the right-wing of the Republican party so many times that it barely even registers any longer.

They like to question the courage and patriotism of Democrats for being unwilling to shed more American blood and waste billions more on a pointless war, that the country was lied into and that's made us far less safe and more despised throughout the world. Aside from the fact that the majority of Americans no longer support the Iraq war -- and, thus, they must all be cut-and-run defeatists as well -- it is the Republicans who have shown themselves to be the lily-livered cowards among us.

Bush, Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld and their whole craven cabal are scared stiff -- and they want us to all be very afraid as well. How frightened are they? They're so afraid that they are willing to go against everything this country stands for, in a blind panic that they think will somehow protect their sorry asses from the big, bad terrorist bullies.

They are so damn scared that they're willing to take a country that was founded on individual liberty and turn it into a police state -- all out of fear.

So they respond to Osama bin Laden and Al-Qaeda attacking our country -- and, according to Bush, "our way of life" -- by putting their collective tails between their legs and abandoning the very core principles crafted by the founding fathers to embody "our way of life."

Posted by: joan | September 29, 2006 11:10 AM

'This summer, President Bush said: "When 12 million Iraqis went to the polls and said, 'I want to be free,' it was an amazing moment." Well, we've just had another amazing moment in which the Iraqi people have spoken. But this time the message isn't "We want to be free." It's "We don't mind seeing American soldiers blown up." You read that right. In a stunning new poll, over 60 percent of Iraqis said they approve of attacks on U.S. troops. U.S. deaths in Iraq just passed 2,700 and the Iraqi people seem to be dancing on the graves. Large numbers of those voters who held up their purple-stained fingers back in December now seem intent on giving America the finger.'

Posted by: drindl | September 29, 2006 11:07 AM

Good to have you back Chris. I liked the info from the field (getting out of the beltway is always a good idea), but I think you guys should write a transcript of all your videos so that us at work can read them, and don't have to watch the videos.

I look forward to some election lines soon.

Rmill, I don't know about the NJ Senate race as 4. NJ is a blue state, and in solid blue election i just don't see it flipping. Also Mass should be number 2 on the govenors list Survey usa has Patrick up 64 to Healey's 25%. It is going to be a slaughter.

Posted by: Andy R | September 29, 2006 11:07 AM

Pretty balanced article. The use of harmless quotes from "voter Laurie Pitcock" is effective even though we know she's a rank partisan. Your article leaves me with the impression that D gains may be larger than I anticipated.

Posted by: Judge C. Crater | September 29, 2006 11:05 AM

Card urged White House to replace Rumsfeld. Twice. The second time with the support of Laura Bush. "Card tried again around Thanksgiving, 2005, this time with the support of First Lady Laura Bush, who according to Woodward, felt that Rumsfeld's overbearing manner was damaging to her husband. Bush refused for a second time, and Card left the administration last March, convinced that Iraq would be compared to Vietnam and that history would record that no senior administration officials had raised their voices in opposition to the conduct of the war."

Posted by: joan | September 29, 2006 11:04 AM

Friday Lines:
US House
1. AZ 8
2. CO 7
3. IN 8
4. IA 1
5. IN 2
6. IN 9
7. PA 10
8. CT 2
9. NC 11
10.KY 4
11.FL 13
12.IL 6
13.IL 8 (D)
14.VA 2
15.WA 8
16.NY 26
17.OH 2
18.OH 18
19.PA 6
20.NM 1

US Senate
1. PA
2. MT
3. OH
4. NJ (D)
5. RI
6. MO
7. TN
8. VA
9. MI (D)
10.NV/WA

Governor's
1. NY
2. OH
3. MA
4. CO
5. AR
6. MD
7. MI (D)
8. MN
9. IA (D)
10.ME (D)
11.RI
12.WI (D)
13.OR (D)
14.SC
15.NV
16.KS (D)
17.FL
18.IL (D)
19.CA
20.AK

Posted by: RMill | September 29, 2006 10:57 AM

It all depends on who counts the votes, doesn't it?

Posted by: drindl | September 29, 2006 10:53 AM

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