Democrats Target Rep. Ryun in Kansas's 2nd District
In an ongoing attempts to expand the House playing field, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee yesterday launched its first ads of the campaign in Kansas's 2nd District.
The commercial hits Republican Rep. Jim Ryun for voting against a $1,500 combat bonus for U.S. troops while votiing himself two "huge" pay raises. (The DCCC is using this same line of attack against several other marginally vulnerable GOP incumbents, including Rep. Melissa Hart in Pennsylvania's 4th District.)
The ad's narrator goes on to call Democratic nominee Nancy Boyda "a better choice" who is "honest and independent."
The DCCC's decision to play in the 2nd District comes amid a slew of district-by-district polling that suggests a number of previously safe GOP incumbents are now ripe for the picking. Ryun joins a list that includes Rep. Cathy McMorris in Washington's 5th District and Rep. Ron Lewis (R) in Kentucky's 2nd.
There is a strong likelihood that none of these three (or any of the other longshot targets for the DCCC) lawmakers will wind up losing. But with so much late money pouring in and surveys showing the possibility of an upset, Democratic strategists are trying to make sure they maximize opportunity everywhere.
Ryun has been an on again, off again target for Democrats since coming to Congress in 1996. Boyda raised more than $1 million in the 2004 race but fell well short -- losing 56 percent to 41 percent. President George W. Bush carried the eastern Kansas district with 59 percent of the vote in 2004, a five-point improvement from his victory there four years earlier.
Democrats have long believed that Ryun, who remains well-known in the state for his record time running the mile in high school, is too conservative for the district. But voters seem to regularly disagree.
Why then would the DCCC go into the district at this late date? Our guess is that Democrats saw a poll that showed Ryun in less healthy shape than they expected and decided to take a gamble. Because advertising is so cheap in this district, it's a no-brainer for the committee to sponsor a week's worth of advertising -- taking a gamble that one of the longshot districts where the party has recently waded into will pay off on Nov. 7.
(Watch the DCCC ad running in Kansas.)
By Chris Cillizza |
October 28, 2006; 5:32 PM ET
| Category:
House
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Posted by: Zack Hamblin | November 12, 2006 5:41 PM
I just read that Rolling Stone article about the worst Congress ever, and it made my blood run cold. If you want to know what the Democrats are fighting for, read the article. It will fuel your rage. Democrats believe in democracy, hence the name.
Posted by: pjwhite530 | October 30, 2006 1:14 AM
See http://www.rollingstone.com/news/coverstory/worst_congress_ever
Vote for Jim Ryun! Keep the R's in office! Let's see just how low we can go! Maybe they'll be honest enough to just burn the Constitution in a public square during the next Congressional session.
Posted by: Judge C. Crater | October 29, 2006 11:12 PM
Not to forget that Mr. Ryun appears to have bought his DC townhouse from the DeLay syndicate for under market value in 2000.
Posted by: Johnbe | October 29, 2006 9:23 PM
KS-2, WA-5, and KY-2 might be rough sledding for the Dems, regardless of the increasingly blue-tinted water flooding Red State congressional districts.
However, PA-4 is most certainly in play. KDKA-TV's October 25 poll (http://kdka.com/topstories/local_story_298165605.html) shows Rep. Hart with a 4-point lead over her Democratic challenger, Jason Altmire, a statistical dead heat.
Given the increasing fragmentation of Republican support among whites, suburbanites, and rural voters in districts like PA-4 -- and other Rust Belt Republican ramparts -- DCCC dollars might prove to be the tipping point for a realigning election.
Peter S. Cohl
PoliticalBrandwagon.com
Posted by: Peter S. Cohl | October 29, 2006 6:43 PM
The one thing I fear the most is that Republicans rig the election.
They will do ANYTHING to cling to power.
Lying corrupt bastards.
Never trust a CON , a RepubliCON.
Posted by: markinseattle | October 29, 2006 2:29 PM
"It ain't over till it's over!"
Don't count your forks until they're done.
Not parrotting Bush and Rove, just sound advice.
Posted by: Yogi | October 29, 2006 11:28 AM
There's an RNCC attack ad running in the Cleveland media market against Dem Zack Space (R opponent Joy Padgett - Ney's old seat.) It says "Space is the highest paid" in the county (or twp - whatever) while jobs are being lost ! ... It's a stupid ad - he's a public employee - prosecutor or something.
Point is - Cleveland's like 100 miles or more from that district and I can't believe even a tiny fraction gets Cleveland shows on their TV. So votes / ad buys for this type of media are huge.
It means the GOP has money to burn right now and if the heat from those flames plays a roll, the GOP will prevent significant losses.
Course it could just be hot air . . .
Posted by: OhioRepublican | October 29, 2006 10:28 AM
"San Francisco Liberal Nancy Pelosi."
Why are right-wingers so afraid of women politicians? It's strange.
Posted by: coyote | October 29, 2006 10:00 AM
Back in the 60's, I watched a big dog attack a little girl in my neighborhood when I was kid in Des Moines. It loked very dangerous, because the little girl was only about 5 years old, and the dog was a big old mutt.
As the dog closed in, snarling, the little girl swung her little purse and fearlessly whacked the dog acros the jowls, which stopped the snarling and turned it into a whimper.
That dog just looked shocked, turned around, tucked its tail between its legs, and ran away.
I have always remembered that brave little girl, and listening to these fearmongers snarling at Pelosi remoinds me of that big, mean dog.
But she's handling it just like that little girl did, and it seems to be having the same effect.
...just hit that big mean dog with a purse, and it slinks away in shame.
Posted by: JEP | October 29, 2006 9:52 AM
Nancy Boyda has never been a "second tier" candidate, especially to the Kansas Democrats who have supported her bid to take Jim (you can run but you can't hide) Ryun's congressional seat. She has run a top-notch campaign against a sports legend with legs.
Boyda's support mechanism is growing every day, even without help from the national, and the district she will represent is growing more blue every day.
With a boost from the DCCC, her chance to move this seat to the other side of the aisle will improve even more.
Finally, someone them are actually doing something about "What's the matter with Kansas!"
And as for that "cheap" shot, "Because advertising is so cheap in this district, it's a no-brainer...," at least you get what you pay for in Kansas.
As far as I can tell, this election season, most all the adve(R)tising has been "cheap."
Staley, you are so right about that last post of yours, there are many more-notable Dems who missed this wave, and they regret thier timidity. Now they will ALL be eying the local congressional seats, 2008 will be a veritable free-for-all of "top tier" candidates fighting for scraps of the Congressional carcass.
Posted by: JEP | October 29, 2006 9:38 AM
At this point, I'm betting there are dozens of locally prominent Democrats who wish they'd bit the bullet and thrown their hats into the ring about a year ago. Many candidates widely considered "Second (or Third) Tier" are looking like good bets at this point to be elected to Congress. Had this been a more typical midterm election (as it looked to be up until about a year ago or so), we would've had the same 98% retention rate we usually do and even strong challenges to incumbents would have been the same exercise in futility they almost always are (unless one is looking to build Name ID and/or political capital for a future race, which isn't unusual). Now all those state legislators, county officials, city council members, etc. are stuck sitting on the sidelines or running for reelection when they could have been on their way to Washington and up the ladder.
Posted by: Staley | October 29, 2006 8:53 AM
My mistake--Shamansky is 79, not 71. http://www.ohioelects.com/house/?story=dispatch/2006/10/25/20061025-A1-03.html
Posted by: Sandwich Repairman | October 29, 2006 4:53 AM
Ohio guy, Bob Shamansky is not a good candidate at all. The fact that he held the seat for one term, 25 years ago, means little. At 71, he comes across as old. He's been out of politics since 1982. Shamansky is a has-been. There is no compelling argument for his candidacy, and what's worse, there are PLENTY of other Democrats in the 12th district who would have been better candidates. OH-12 is just starting to show up on some analysts' list of competitive races as Likely Republican simply because of the size of the building Democratic wave nationally, and particularly in Ohio. The district only voted for Bush 51-49 in 2004 and could have been contested much more seriously by any number of suburban mayors, state legislators, judges, or Columbus City Council members. Michael Coleman would've been good to run there, or Ben Espy if he weren't running for Supreme Court. I've seen the ads on YouTube; a John Glenn endorsement is always helpful in Ohio, and another one was cute. But the fact remains that Shamansky is about a 3rd tier candidate.
Posted by: Sandwich Repairman | October 29, 2006 4:47 AM
I'm almost certain that the Democrats would gain at least 50+ seats in the House of Representatives if they were to put up signs saying:
"A vote for _________ means that Bush's Presidency will go down in flames, and that a bloated, hush money accepting whale will be out of the Speaker's Office"
Posted by: Concerned | October 29, 2006 1:57 AM
In OH-12 the Democrats have an excellent candidate. Bob Shamansky held the seat for one term ('80-'82) and he is persoanlly warlthy and has contributed over $1 million of his own money. He also has a great ad up on the air.
To Nervous GOP Voter:
Maybe us Democrats should out up signs at every polling place in the country that say:
"A vote for __________ counts as a vote to keep child predator-protecting Denny Hastert as Speaker of the House".
I think your party would lose every vulnerable seat and then some.
Posted by: Ohio guy | October 29, 2006 12:30 AM
Good for the DCCC. Jim Ryun is an extreme right-wing lunatic. Now if only they'd recruited far better candidates in OH-12 and OH-14, those seats would be top tier races...
Posted by: Sandwich Repairman | October 28, 2006 10:18 PM
GOP scare tactics,,, Give it up, if Pelosi is all you fear, then you are really in bad shape. The real GOP fear is that moderate and independant voters are rejecting the neocon world of hate, fear, lies, and torture.
If anyone thinks the DEM's winning the house will turn the country into a liberal bastion of self-indulgent sezxual liberalism is truly living in the past. This is the biggest lie that is still being told. The sexual revolution has been over for over 30 years, yet the GOP keeps running this same flag up the pole. Get over yourself, masturbation is not dirty or perverted. Only the Grand Ole Pedophiles are disgusting.
Posted by: Stick A Fork In IT | October 28, 2006 8:49 PM
Nervous -- that line only works with hardcore Republicans. The independents, who will decide the elction (along with turnout), are probably less afraid of Pelosi than they are with the current party in power.
Posted by: Marchant2 | October 28, 2006 7:23 PM
Perhaps we republicans can have all polling stations in the USA post a sign similar to the one in Florida 16 "Votes Cast for Mark Foley count for Joe Negron"
The signs will state:
"A vote for ______(Democrat), counts as a vote for San Francisco Liberal Nancy Pelosi."
Maybe we can hold a few of our vunerable seats ....then again maybe not.
Posted by: Nervous_GOP_Voter | October 28, 2006 5:52 PM
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