See the Ad that Fox News' John Gibson Calls, "the Greatest Political Ad of All Time." This Ad Is So Powerful, a Sitting US Congressman Threatened TV Stations with Legal Action If They Dared to Play It...

Sex Studies Ad: http://nelson.sitebuilder.completecampaigns.com/common/media.php?id=6442

Does KOZ ever check any facts, or is it all just bitter invective?

Chris, I saw a poll reported in the Roanoke Times yesterday that shows George Allen ahead by 3 percent in Virginia. The poll you refer to is out-of-date I think. Are other references out-of-date?

You write everyday and manage somehow to evade the correct definations of most of the words ; That you Read or Type ; why is it Li`be`reals manage to do this with such consistencies ? My Father was a Democrate until he just could not stand the Improprieties any longer ! ""It`s Wrong ; That`s Not Right ; He`s Lying""; just aren`t the solutions for America`s Issues ; Stoppitt or at least offer some Complete Solutions ; spend some of the monies you have on telling America what you plan to do for "We The People" ! Finger Pointing won`t "Get Er Done" ! Stoppitt Now !! Nick

Vernon Robinson's attack ad, who's trying to unseat incumbent Democrat Miller for the U.S. House of Representatives in the 13th District of North Carolina:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ugpb7qchIU&eurl=

I still remember an ad that Al D'Amato used to depose Jacob Javits as NY Senator decades ago--a lingering shot of an empty wheelchair, intended to reinforce in voters' minds that Javits had been diagnosed with Lou Gehrig's disease and it would be a waste to elect someone that might die in office.....

I liked the Erskin Bowles ad from 2002 (first time around) where the ad opens in a bowling alley and some old man says Erskin Bowls??? Haha and then you see Erskin saying "why yes I do" or something along those lines. I liked that ad. It was fun.

ok, see that link

http://www.iggytv.com

KOZ:
As a retired teacher, I appreciate your analogies using children. I especially like this one: Rich self-righteous kid goes up to kids from the "wrong side of the tracks" on playground and calls them evil, ignorant, etc......They may have had to put up with it, since the money and power seem to be in the hands of the rich kids, but they happen to have the oil.

Barry Commoner. 1980 Presidential campaign. Does anybody else remember the first time they heard the words Bull Sh*t on the radio? I'm not sure it was a great ad because he got under 1% of the vote. But it's stayed with me some 26 years later.

I believe Ned Lamont had some great ads:

http://www.nedlamont.com/page/content/resources/

I especially liked the messy desk and old fashioned ads.

Sorry, link:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/09/AR2006100901218.html

To add to my 3:36pm post:

"""...the White House plans to amplify national security issues, especially the threat of terrorism, after North Korea's reported nuclear test, in hopes of shifting the debate away from casualties and controversy during the final month of the campaign. These efforts are aimed largely at prodding disaffected conservatives to vote for GOP candidates despite their unease.."""

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/09/AR2006100901218.html

There it is right there in black and white:

Playing the FEAR card for POLITICAL PURPOSES.

Ya know, Im sick of being right abt the Bush Admin's power lust and total disrespect for America.

Just too stupid to get the context. Tin ear and tin foil hat.

'but in reality this war is not my problem. I only know a few soldiers personally, there is a low casualty rate, the economy is doing well, my house price is up, my 401K is moving again, my grocery store is stocked. what makes you think this war effects me? '

The bottomless selfishness, greed and depraved indifference of this individual continue to shock and repel me... there's your typical R -- in it for himself and everyone else be damned. Too bad there's no draft. But I doubt if the service would even take him, too lazy and cowardly to fight.

It is up to the politicians to generate this sense of sacrifice. Pork-balling and self-centered efforts at agrandization don't point the way to honorary citizenship. Have you heard any pols running for election making any claims about sacrifice? Mostly they deride any effort to make this endeavor noble. but in reality this war is not my problem. I only know a few soldiers personally, there is a low casualty rate, the economy is doing well, my house price is up, my 401K is moving again, my grocery store is stocked. what makes you think this war effects me? Half the population thinks its "his" war.

If we are going to sacrifice ourselves abroad, to take on tyrannical organizations like the North Koreans, I want to see sacrifices here. And I dont.

Ive given money to buy body armor. I dont own a car anymore. where is the sacrifice here? Where are those people saying I dont need an SUV, I dont need tax breaks when we are at war and we cannot put armor on all the troops and vehicles? I just see a lot of people thinking it is not their problem.

Then you deny that Libya reacted as it did because of some aspect of the Iraq policy? how about syria/Lebanon? how about Egypt, Saudi? these activities were all recent enough after the invasion as to encourage a cause/effect analysis. Maybe not, it is far from mathematically sound.

did you ever consider that the badly behaving nations are acting just like an over-tired toddler would behave. when the other sibling is having too much attention, they throw a tantrum to bring the subject back to themselves. I have seen this form of ping-pong a lot lately and now chavez is trying to get in on it. N Korea is simply trying to stay on the front page of the NYT as often as possible - difficult these days.

but why would you claim that raising the US image is an effective approach? do we really care what Iraq and Korea think of us. their people do not have free access to any actual truthful news (many would say the same about NYers.) were you referring to France et al? Let's just stick with Poland, Denmark, Australia, etc. they don't seem to be easily fooled by slanted press coverage. One thing the enemy culture does seem to understand is death and defeat. Let's honor their request.

I thought the 1964 retort was, "In your gut, you know he's nuts".

FYI, Survey USA polling shows viewers of yesterday's MO Senate debate on Meet the Press thought McCaskill won: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportPopup.aspx?g=7190352e-b960-4dde-a2cf-a287b260444a&q=32275

44% came away with a less favorable opinion of Talent: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportPopup.aspx?g=7190352e-b960-4dde-a2cf-a287b260444a&q=32276

44% came away with a more favorable opinion of McCaskill: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportPopup.aspx?g=7190352e-b960-4dde-a2cf-a287b260444a&q=32277

JEP, just finished watching all the 1988 ads. The Willie Horton ad wasn't even the only scare tactic one. Both sides had some in 1984. I agree the current junta has perfected the tactic and elevated it to an extreme, especially of recklessness and irresponsibility. But there are scare tactics on both sides.

Feingold did well in the 92 primary with humorous ads that showed him rising above the mean, negative fray of the other two candidates. Just before the election, one of them realized what was happening and endorsed Feingold. I'm not sure whether it was a TV ad or interview, but I do recall that Feingold led a little tour of his house, complete with him opening a closet and saying "Look, no skeletons!".

Feingold and Wellstone were friends, meeting in socks in a room littered with books in 1989 laughing at the idea that either one could be elected to the Senate. I'm sure Feingold took a page from Wellstone's 1990 ad campaign (Wellstone's victory inspired Patty Murray and other progressives to run for office in 1992 and subsequent years). There are multiple Wellstone ads from 1990 using the strategy of running once and counting on the novelty of them to get replayed constantly in the free media. There were "Fast-Paced Paul" and the 60 second "Looking for Rudy" among others. There was a spot where Wellstone very earnestly and directly spoke about his vision of politics as a higher calling whose purpose was to improve peoples' lives. Another criticized Sen. Boschwitz on his record on children's issues and showed kids writing him campaign checks, suggesting that if kids could give to his campaign, he might pay more attention to them. At the end, another highlighted endorsements by the state's two biggest newspapers, followed by a light-hearted clip of Wellstone himself delivering the papers to Minnesotans' front doors. One ad criticized Boschwitz for missing key votes in Congress, then contributing to a mess that was brewing in the state's GOP with a gubernatorial candidate who had to withdraw at the last minute, ending with Wellstone in the senator's chair jokingly suggesting that he was better looking.

Most unusually, there was a POST-election ad in which Wellstone thanked the state for electing him, and invited the public to a free celebration before he went to Washington. Now that's class! I believe Fast-Paced Paul won an award for being so effective. These ads are around the internet, you can see them if you search a bit...

For anyone interested in how the Bush administration went about deciding to go to war in Iraq, I highly recommend Ron Suskind's "The One Percent Doctrine." In many ways, the administration truly did/does have the perspective often articulated by KOZ -- specifically that "rogue nations" have to be intimidated into not using WMDs against the US, and that our invasion of Iraq (even absent credibile intel) would serve that purpose.

To answer your question KOZ, the reason I don't think the "individual determination" to use force in Iraq was a good one directly addresses the problem I see with the One Percent Doctrine. Quite simply, invading Iraw HAS NOT created a deterrant for other rogue nations - like N. Korea, Iran, etc - to use or work towards acquiring WMD, biological and chemical agents, etc. To the contrary, I believe our failures to date in Iraq have emboldened those nations to take the steps they are now taking. Moreover, what many muslims view as our occupation of that country (whether that's a correct view or not) has also lead to further radicalizing of other muslim countries citizens and leaders. Finally, I would also add that reports post-invasion have shown that Saddam had been so weakened by sanctions that he didn't even control geographically 1/4 of Iraq - so I would respectfully disagree that the use of force was the only alternative when we used it. From my vantage point, it sure seems like the diplomatic solution was working quite effectively.

Now, what is my solution to addressing these rogue nations more generally? To be honest, I don't have anything approaching a "good answer" to that problem...and I don't think anyone else does either. There really is no "silver bullet," above and beyond slowly working towards improving the image of the US in the world while continually using special forces and our expanded human intelligence capabilities (which were never geared towards terrorism prior to 9-11)to try and go after the terrorist networks that exist accross the world. Truth be told, truly working towards energy independence - so that we can stop sending huge sums of money to an area of the world that largely wants to kill us - would probably be the most effective strategy.

For anyone interested in how the Bush administration went about deciding to go to war in Iraq, I highly recommend Ron Suskind's "The One Percent Doctrine." In many ways, the administration truly did/does have the perspective often articulated by KOZ -- specifically that "rogue nations" have to be intimidated into not using WMDs against the US, and that our invasion of Iraq (even absent credibile intel) would serve that purpose.

To answer your question KOZ, the reason I don't think the "individual determination" to use force in Iraq was a good one directly addresses the problem I see with the One Percent Doctrine. Quite simply, invading Iraw HAS NOT created a deterrant for other rogue nations - like N. Korea, Iran, etc - to use or work towards acquiring WMD, biological and chemical agents, etc. To the contrary, I believe our failures to date in Iraq have emboldened those nations to take the steps they are now taking. Moreover, what many muslims view as our occupation of that country (whether that's a correct view or not) has also lead to further radicalizing of other muslim countries citizens and leaders. Finally, I would also add that reports post-invasion have shown that Saddam had been so weakened by sanctions that he didn't even control geographically 1/4 of Iraq - so I would respectfully disagree that the use of force was the only alternative when we used it. From my vantage point, it sure seems like the diplomatic solution was working quite effectively.

Now, what is my solution to addressing these rogue nations more generally? To be honest, I don't have anything approaching a "good answer" to that problem...and I don't think anyone else does either. There really is no "silver bullet," above and beyond slowly working towards improving the image of the US in the world while continually using special forces and our expanded human intelligence capabilities (which were never geared towards terrorism prior to 9-11)to try and go after the terrorist networks that exist accross the world. Truth be told, truly working towards energy independence - so that we can stop sending huge sums of money to an area of the world that largely wants to kill us - would probably be the most effective strategy.

"Smells like a skunk to me. "

As a total aside, a buddy and I were biking through St Paul several weekends ago. We nearly ran over not one, but two - that's TWO skunks! That's Saint Paul, MN, the city scheduled to host the 2008 GOP convention.

Conclusions are left for the reader to draw on their own.

kingofzouk,

You were making a fairly reasonable point until you felt necessary to fall back on name-calling.

I would gladly have discussed the matter of 'rogue nations' in a sensible manner, but rewarding rogue posters is not a workable tactic.

Two ads that changed races:

1. The ad that Russell Feingold ran in an ugly 3-way primary for his first Senate race. His two well-financed opponents ran horrendous ads slamming each other (and ignoring Feingold as a minor candidate). His ad showed him ducking and weaving as two candidates threw mud at each other. He got the message across that he wasn't one of them.

2. Paul Wellstone's ad, run once, in his first senate race apparently changed the outcome though I never saw it.

3. The Kerry Swift Boat ad certainly deserves mention. It was a very close race. I believe it made the difference. It even added a verb to the language: to SWIFT boat someone.

Like children, rogue nations must be treated differently than civilized (adult) ones. would any serious person really want to enter into a debate on facts or ideas with the likes of drindl or FB or JEP. Instead of solid progress or a marketplace of ideas, you get zingers and soundbites based on conspiracy, insults, innuendo and lies. Just look at all the insults slung by drindl, all the conspiracies advanced by JEP, all the false innuendo by FB. thier world is like a episode of the X-files complete with the smoking man - G. Bush.

It is the same with Iraq, PLO, Iran, Syria, N Korea, etc. any agreement is not worth the paper it is printed on. any concession on our part is just another gimme with the bargained for chip uselessly garnered by the enemy. In fact, simply agreeing to talk to them in an adult forum gives their ridiculous positions a modicum of gravity. surely you have observed this over time.

so when my 4 yo starts hitting his sister, it is not a good idea to say "I will give you an ice cream if you stop hitting her". guess what happens next. the ice cream is gone and some chocolate is next on the list. hitting has been rewarded and the lesson is well learned. I know you Libs with the mentality of a 4 yo don't get this and have a tendancy to jump up and down and scream and then expect to be treated like adults, but only the other kids are paying any attention.

TJM, I appreciate your attempts at a rational debate, but as you can see, there are only a few here capable. I agree with most of your statements, but would challenge you to find a way to eventually draw a line. when does one do this? After the big boom down the street is the usual Dem answer. the Rs want to preclude that from happening with a more proactive stance. Dems want to fight in the streets of NYC, in the courts of America. Rs prefer to send the battle over there. to stop the attack before it happens. to punish, not reward abherrent behavior. not to lend prestige to erratic claims.

"Other than Willie Horton I'm not sure fear played such a huge role in the campaigns that year."

My point exactly.

Back in 88, it was the only "be afraid" ad on the tube, and because it worked so well, now every Republican ad touts terrorists as something Democrats can't deal with, just like Dukakis and Horton.
Probably the most egregious and graphic example was Max Cleland's cameo with bin Laden.

It is no longer the exception but the rule for Republicans running for office, to scare voters into voting for them, instead of dealing with real issues or policies.

But this is really nothing new, Hitler used fear of everything from Jews to Gypsies, just to keep his lemmings in line.

History has many other examples.

TJM, im sure Drindl can respond to the question you posed to her, but I just happened to be reading Donald Gregg's comments that are making the rounds (he was George HW Bush's security advisor under Reagan):

"Why won't the Bush administration talk bilaterally and substantively with NK, as the Brits (and eventually the US) did with Libya? Because the Bush administration sees diplomacy as something to be engaged in with another country as a reward for that country's good behavior. They seem not to see diplomacy as a tool to be used with antagonistic countries or parties, that might bring about an improvement in the behaviour of such entities, and a resolution to the issues that trouble us. Thus we do not talk to Iran, Syria, Hizballah or North Korea. We only talk to our friends -- a huge mistake."

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/postglobal/needtoknow/2006/10/bush_made_a_big_mistake.html

I was talking about our trolls, TJM... luckily none of them has nuclear weapons.

Calling other countries' leaders 'mindless mouthpieces for ideologies' is pretty hilarious coming from the mindless mouthpieces for ideology in this admin, eh?

Steve,

I well remember the "In Your Heart You Know He's Right" bumper stickers. But the retort I remember was "Yes.... Far Right"

Of course, today, Barry Goldwater would be considered a dangerous liberal by the religious right.

drindl wrote:
"tjm, Sophisticated arguments won't work on people who are just mindless mouthpieces for propaganda..."

The Bush Administration is quite fond of declaring nations with which it disagrees aren't worth talking to, that they're "mindless mouthpieces" for some ideology or another, that sophisticated arguments won't work on them. Looking around the world, do you think that attitude has had good or bad results?

colin: I appreciate your civility. I didn't make any personal viewpoints on abortion or other moral issues. I simply pointed out the difficulties contained in the Dems point of view. Ultimately it is not up to me to decide what is right and wrong, this is part of the process which I am willing to accept. I personally think that 16 yo boys are pretty capable of making thier own decision about sex. I wouldn't advocate using a position of power to influence that decision. similarly, a person's sexual proclivities don't bother me one bit, particularly between adults.

so use of force has been determined individually here. Korea was determined not to be a good candidate for force, as was Iran. that seems to line up nicely with your theory, so what is the problem? In Iraq, the other avenues had been exhausted, what was left?

"Dismissing your argument isn't naiveté"

"Dismissing" ANY arguement potentially constitutes naiveté. Are you really so certain there was no collusion, at any level? Or are you just arguing your point forensically?

Just for a moment, instead of arguing against the idea, try considering it just long enough to see if you own internal "truth detector" doesn't light up.

Just consider for a moment that it is quite possible that there are people around Kim who might have "outside" connections, that there may be a shadow group deciding diplomacy for NKorea.

I'm not asking you to believe it, just entertain the thought for a moment.

If you claim that is just somehow improbable, you aren't the historian you imagine yourself to be.

And if you look carefully, I posed questions, not assertions.

If you ascertained something from them, good. But I am simply pointing out, in question form, that if it smells like a skunk, looks like a skunk and lifts its tail when you get close, that it might just be a skunk.

And who ever said Karl Rove actually masterminded this?

"assume that Karl Rove is not behind the timing of the DPRK's nuclear test"

I ASKED in my opening statement if Kim was working for Rove, just to get the question in your mind, that obviously worked.

I have as yet actually asserted nothing, I have only suggested, in questions, some connections that might be there or not.

CAN YOU PROVIDE EVIDENCE THAT THERE IS NO COLLUSION?

It would be just as hard, or harder to prove there is no conspiracy, there is actually more evidence OF a conspiracy than against one.

"The only piece of "evidence" you cite for your contention is that out of the twelve months of the year, the DPRK chose to test in the one before American elections."

So now go ahead, tell me the timing was just co-incidental; and then lets get our "Kim" story straight.

Is Kim just plain stupid enough to accept this diplomatically dangerous date for the experimental detonation, or is he a genius who knows everything that goes on around him and calculated his decision for its greatest diplomatic effect?

If he's stupid, then he certainly could easily be fooled by brighter bulbs.

If he's a genius, why would he make such a strategic blunder that aids his biggest foes?

So which is it, is Kim a political genius or a diplomatic doofus, we will all appreciate the waffling appraisals.

Smells like a skunk to me.

The only thing we have to fear is fear itself-FDR
The only thing we have is fear-Rove

Is it Lowell Weicker?? (snicker)

One of the best ads
Reagan's
There is a bear in the woods....

One of the best ads
Reagan's
There is a bear in the woods....

"but you would have to agree the trend towards trash is not a trend, it is a centuries-old standard of politics."

Yes, I definitely have to agree with that. Dirty pool is all over 19th and even 18th century US politics. And that's only considering the US... In many ways you have to admit it's gotten gradually better. Presidential candidates tend not to compete on the basis of who can give away more free alcohol and get more people drunk these days, like in 1840. Especially when Bush is a teetotaler.

For those who don't get it...

'The bomb-grade plutonium that was on ice from 1994 to 2002 is now actual bombs. Try as you might it is difficult to imagine a policy -- any policy -- which would have yielded a worse result than the one we will face Monday morning.'

'Yet a number of senior U.S. officials have said privately that they would welcome a North Korean test, regarding it as a clarifying event that would forever end the debate within the Bush administration about whether to solve the problem through diplomacy or through tough actions designed to destabilize North Korean leader Kim Jong Il's grip on power.'

This is cheney. He wants nuclear confrontation, he honestly does. The man is insane. And what 'tough actions' do they think they can take now? There are not too many options, are there?

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/

The "Together" ad (Ohio, DSCC) is cute. For that matter, Bob Shamansky's Rubber Stamp ad of Pat Tiberi is amusing.

JEP, I'm still not sure I agree. 1988 was the year of "No New Taxes" and continuing the 'great Reagan legacy'. Other than Willie Horton I'm not sure fear played such a huge role in the campaigns that year. If you go to that Living Room Candidate site I linked to above, and watch the ads from 1968, I think you'll see more fear in those ads--crime, chaos, youth, nuclear weapons, Vietnam, Communism/Cold War... My recollection of 1988 is that it was more about dumb juvenile stuff like Bush being a wimp or Boston Harbor being dirty (which was the Administration's fault). Bush certainly painted Dukakis as an effete, out of touch liberal elitist, and slammed him on taxes and the death penalty, but I think of that year as more mean and juvenile than scaring people about the other candidate. It was a very negative year, maybe one of the first when more people were voting against the other candidate than for their own.

I'll go watch some of the 1988 ads and see if they change my mind.

tjm, Sophisticated arguments won't work on people who are just mindless mouthpieces for propaganda...

Best ad I've seen so far is a VoteVets ad against Santorum's rejection of new kevlar for our soldiers in Iraq:

http://www.ifilms.tv/votevetsweb/burns.html

Zouk, as I said earlier, I think the odds are that we get a nuclear North Korea no matter what we do. The question is what happens next. With diplomacy the DPRK gets nukes. Without diplomacy the DPRK gets nukes *and* the prestige of being a victim of Yankee oppression. People like Hugo Chavez discover that supporting Kim Jong Il wins them points, not criticism. Wouldn't you agree that, while both cases are dangerous, the latter case is far more so?

Just thought people here would be interested in this article:

Polls: GOP losing grip on married moms
POSTED: 12:39 p.m. EDT, October 9, 2006

After winning over moms in back-to-back elections, Republicans have lost their advantage among married women with children this year.

The Republican Party has seen the support of people like Jeannette Hopkins evaporate.

A 30-year-old married mother of two and a Republican, Hopkins voted for President Bush in 2004. But she says she probably will support the Democrat in her congressional district this fall "because of the way that everything's been handled" with the GOP in charge of Congress and Bush in the White House.

"We're in a really scary place right now," Hopkins said recently. She vented about what she called the gone-on-too-long Iraq war, a sluggish economy, the bungled Hurricane Katrina response and a continuing terrorism threat.

...

"People have no money. The economy is not going well," said Michele Huber, 29. A married mother of three, she gave the country a "poor to fair" rating as she speed-walked in a suburban Cincinnati park with one of her children, a niece and a nephew in tow.

A Republican, she voted for Bush in 2004. She said she was not sure whether she would again if she had the chance...

...

Outside a Wal-Mart in Fort Wright, Kentucky, two moms hauled their kids out of their minivans. One of the women voted for Bush. One did not. Neither was pleased with the direction of the country.

"We're not happy," said Christy Blaker, 32, as she loaded a McDonald's-munching Emily, 4, and Becca, 18 months, into a shopping cart. ...

...

Across the parking lot, another stay-at-home mom, Tina Wagner, 31, voiced similar fears while two of her three children, Grace, 4, and Faith, 15 months, fidgeted. Hope, 6, was in school.

A Republican, Wagner voted for Bush in 2004 but expressed disappointment about his job performance in the two years since.

http://www.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/10/09/married.moms.ap/index.html

More evidence that regular people are tired of being force-fed the Bush Admin's fraudulent policies.

"but more importantly the Willie Horton one was foreshadowed by the overtly racist "southern strategy" Nixon (aided by Roger Ailes) used in 1968.."

I agree, it is reasonable to put "fearmongering" and "race baiting" on the same page, but you would have to agree the trend towards trash is not a trend, it is a centuries-old standard of politics.

But the constant drumbeat and drip-drip-drip of this pervasive "be afraid, be very afraid" electioneering strategy can be traced to the "Bush in 88" Willie Horton ad.

Public Fear; It worked so well that time in 88, it is now their favorite political tool.

JEP, it's not "naive" or "enabling" to assume that Karl Rove is not behind the timing of the DPRK's nuclear test. It's just Occam's Razor. The only piece of "evidence" you cite for your contention is that out of the twelve months of the year, the DPRK chose to test in the one before American elections. Upon this single fact you pile the assertions that (a) some member of Kim's inner circle *might* be corrupt, and (b) this entirely hypothetical member *might* succeed in contacting the White House and arranging a quid pro quo, this despite the fact that communications outside North Korea are tightly controlled and travel outside the country all but nonexistent. You then disclaim the burden of proof for this rickety structure, and imply that it's on us to show that each one of your "maybe"s is an unequivocal "no". Dismissing your argument isn't naiveté. Until you can present actual evidence, it's just being reasonable.

I should expound--a subkiloton explosion means that either:

1) The detonation failed, fizzled
2) The detonation was not nuclear (or at best a 'dirty bomb')
3) NK's technology is about as good as Israel's

A recent Sherrod Brown ad pointing out the close connection between Mike DeWine and W deserves special kudos. For anyone not in Ohio, the ad paid for by the DSCC is HILARIOUS! With the background noise of children singing, viewers can't help but look at the TV and the goofy image of DeWine and Bush is just too much. In the ongoing battle for the Senate seat in Ohio, this ad stands out from the rest.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZVs3A7oNtX8

"...this is the clinton mentality - we need to be loved."

No, that's the Christian mentality, last I read.

I agree drindl. Why such insanity today? Definitely more disconnected than usual even. But I admit his 1:33pm post had me lol.

Speaking of good ads, or at least a good race. Harold Ford Jr. said this during Sat night's debate, in response to Corker calling him part of a "Ford political machine:

"I don't know why Mr. Corker keeps bringing up my family. Let me be clear: I love 'em and there's nothing you can say, Mr. Corker, that will bring any distance between my family and I ... It's you and I running for the Senate. It's our ideas, our plans to make the future better for everybody. Let's stick to you and I. And if you come up with a recipe to pick family, say it. Otherwise be quiet and let's run for the Senate."

http://www.commercialappeal.com/mca/politics/article/0,1426,MCA_1496_5051668,00.html

Um. We have a winnah.

JEP: I have to disagree with you a bit on the paramount importance of the Willie Horton ad. The daisy ad in 1964 is notorious for playing on peoples' fears, but more importantly the Willie Horton one was foreshadowed by the overtly racist "southern strategy" Nixon (aided by Roger Ailes) used in 1968. I see the 1988 ad, and many others before and since, as just continuations of the same strategy from 1968.

I thought McCaskill was dumb to go willingly into the abortion discussion. But Talent's stubborn insistence that he'd still vote for the war in Iraq knowing there were no WMDs, standing by his statements of how well the war is going esp. in light of the latest NIE, and complete obfuscation of what our "mission" there is, or was, or was supposed to be, was just shocking. But clearly, he is quite experienced and adept at it. I was surprised that Russert got wrong--and Talent didn't correct--that he was not in Congress at the time of the Iraq war vote. Jean Carnahan had the seat in October 2002. He also did a good job of papering over his stem cell flip-flop with a straight face and making it seem rational. I don't think either candidate came out with a clear win, and having closely watched MO elections for 14 years, I strongly agree with Chris' assertion from Friday that it's likely to end up the closest Senate race in the country. There's hardly a single poll finding a gap exceeding the margin of error--there may not be one at all. The race will come down to lots of micro issues, and there's no real way to predict who will win until election night.

An interesting trivia tidbit--both candidates ran for this Senate seat the cycle after narrowly losing bids for Missouri Governor; Talent in 2000 and McCaskill in 04. It reminds me of the old rule in Ohio politics that you had to run for and lose a statewide office before you won one.

http://sandwichrepair.blogspot.com

"Elton John's "Sorry seems to be the hardest word" would play softly in the background.

It might not help them regain their majority, but it would show a sense of humor."

LOL.. still...

I posted once that these Republican candidates are going to need a disclaimer like the drug ads on TV, at the end of each commercial there would be a statement like...
"this candidate has been arrested twice for DUI, once for spouse abuse, and suffered an election lasting more than four hours..."

drindl,

That there was a detonation is not under dispute. The 'subkiloton' is the key word there--the technology required to manufacture a <1kt bomb is much more sophisticated than something in the 10-20 kiloton range.

"the battle for public opinion"

A few years back, you might have needed to differentiate between "the world" version of "public" and "American" version of "public."

Not so these days.

One "public" (the latter) disapproves of Bush almost 60%, the other (the former) disapproves of Bush 80%.

(Republican trolls will add that up as 40% approval from Americans and 20% approval from the rest of the world, which, according to the book-cookers, actually constitutes a 60% popularity rating for W!)

Bush's failed diplomacy has seriously damaged "public opinion" towards the US, especially on the world stage, worse than any foreign leader could ever manage.

I think the GOP should make a compilation ad that could air nationally. Get a great economy of scale that way!

It would be 60 seconds and each member would just say "sorry" and the graphic would spell out their sin ("harrassed page," "took bribe," "spouted racism," "cheated on wife," "didn't do oversight of Iraq,"...)

Elton John's "Sorry seems to be the hardest word" would play softly in the background.

It might not help them regain their majority, but it would show a sense of humor.

Speaking of, new on EWM:
"Not all Republicans make good pets."
http://www.eyewitnessmuse.com/diary.php?p=231

do you suppose this zouk character is on drugs? or off meds? the ranting today is totally disconnected and irrational, i mean, more so than usual...more juvenile, more puerile. it's sad but soemhow kind of fascinating, like a car wreck.

roo-- not what I read. But there is some controvers,y agreed.

'The world this morning is a little scarier than it was yesterday, if the reports about North Korea are to be believed. The U.S. Geological Survey reports the nuclear test was enough to set off a small earthquake--magnitude 4.2--with the epicenter at a depth of "0 km." (Most quakes happen several miles down, sometimes hundreds of miles.) '

However,

"Jack Date of our Washington bureau provides this from someone who asked only to be identified as a senior intelligence community official:

"The Intelligence Community detected a Sub-Kiloton explosive event in North Korea. We cannot confirm if it was a nuclear explosion. For an initial test a yield of several Kilotons has been historically observed."

http://blogs.abcnews.com/scienceandsociety/

So there seems to be some doubt. Also I wonder why this senior official won't be identified, then? And why this admin and many others around the world are taking it seriously? I mean the Asian stock market tanked...

So if we just surrender to all the bad guys we will win the PR war. great idea.
do you work for the NYT? this is the clinton mentality - we need to be loved. We wouldn't want some dictator with 100% control of the press putting out true reports of our refusal to bend over and take whatever they dish out now would we? If only their mommy had hugged them more. I suppose Kerry would just say "I surrendured to them before I got tough with them."

"But there is no doubt that they did so without collusion. Kim Jong Il would never go for that.."

Oh, so now Kim Jong Il is omniscient, all powerful, and actually knows he has been played like a fiddle?

Who ever said it was collusion with Kim himself? Is it possible there are other players in this game, who have the power and the resources to deceive Kim?

Kim's obvioulsy surrounded by some very dangerous people, particularly his military advisors. Isn't it possible one or some of them have other "loyalties" outside Kim's delusions?

How can you be so certain any one, or even a group of these NKorean Generals and civic leaders, many who gained power under Kim's father, haven't misled the NKorean leader into a circle of deceit?

And how can you be so certain those same generals and advisors could not have some greedy agenda for their own benefit?

I would guess corruption in NKorea is just as greed-based as it is here.

So to assume there could not possibly be any "connection" because "Kim would not let that happen", is naive at best and enabling at worst.

You might quite astutely argue that Kim has lots of bullies working for him to keep the citizens in line, and that would preclude such treason.

Quite true, Kim's bullies keep his public fearfully submissive.

But who keeps the bullies, especially the top ones, in line?

Can you just assume Kim has no money-hungry traitors in his entire extended civil and military staff?

Seriously, do you really believe Kim knows EVERYTHING that goes on under his nose?

Sounds like your argument suggests this, and it is just naive, Kim's got internal loyalty issues just like Bush, or any world leader does.

Hitler's own generals tried to blow him up, remember?

Do you think Kim have more authority in Korea than Hitler had Germany?

To suggest Kim is above being fooled by those around him is ignoring all of history's lessons. And one of Shakespeare's most efficient lines.

"Et Tu, Brute'?"

Kim's "Brutus" could be anyone in his close ranks, and he, like Caesar and many other of history's leaders (Reagan?), might find it is someone who is considered closest to them, who actually threatens them the most.

The mortgage bomb in the future... check out just how badly you can now be screwed by lenders, because of deregulation passed in the last five years:

'Mortgage rates have been trending down, but that won't do much to benefit those who signed up for low-teaser-rate adjustable-rate mortgages in the past few years.

An ARM charges an initial discounted rate for a period of time, after which it adjusts to market levels. When some types of ARMs with teaser rates of 2 percent or less reset, the rates are likely to jump to more than 6 percent - and even as high as 9 percent.

That can mean a doubling in monthly payments owed for those homeowners saddled with the loans.

The jump in payments could be even bigger for some people. They could have a loan balance that's larger today than it was when they got their mortgage - a situation called negative amortization. And it's common with what are called "payment option" ARMs.

That's because the initial teaser rate is a "payment rate," not an interest rate. That means the market-rate interest on the loan starts to accrue from the get-go and monthly payments aren't enough to cover it, let alone pay down any of your principal.

There may also be a trigger ceiling, meaning when the balance reaches a certain level - say 120 percent of the original balance - the introductory terms will end and the rate will reset upward, according to Christopher Cagan, director of research at First American Real Estate Solutions, a mortgage information provider.

End result: A much higher interest rate on a bigger loan than the homeowner ever intended.

KOZ -- no offense, but what are you talking about today. We get it - you think a more muscular foreign policy is ALWAYS the answer to foreign policy issues and you hate Clinton. Message received - no need to repeat it anymore. Some of us simly disagree, and instead feel that (1) determinations regarding the use of force need to be made on an individual basis (First Gulf War, Afghanistant good. Iraq stupid), and (2)Clinton did both GOOD and BAD things as president.

Incidentally -- I notice that when you want to rail against Democrats, you bring up support for abortion rights and gay rights as immoral and negative, yet you also have said that you're libertarian on these issues yourself. It seems somewhat disingenuous to me that you seem to switch your stance on these issues where it suits your purpose. Personally, I have no trouble stating that I think abortion is wrong, but that government has no business being involved in the decision. Some consistency from you on these points would be refreshing.

The nuclear test was quite possibly a failure--either that or not nuclear at all. The detonation was so small that it is unlikely for North Korea to possess the technology to have purposefully created it. This from my more physisistically aligned acquaintances.

drindl--thanks for starting to add the sources, quotation markers etc.

NSA programs actually do something to protect us. One of the few government programs that do. this is the program you want to shut down? while leaving SS on cruise control into bankruptcy. the evidence of your lack of any vision is mounting. I can only presume that income redistribution is more important than defending this country. a good point to make right before an election which lays out your values crystal clear.

Andy r - I want a deadline for withdrawal but not a firm deadline, kind of like a negotiable deadline. that is thought out?? In who's labotomized brain? the scholars of the world will not be joined anytime soon by this woman.

BY ROBERT NOVAK Sun-Times

Disgraced former Congressman Mark Foley had two excellent job offers in the private sector this year when Rep. Tom Reynolds, National Republican Congressional Committee chairman, talked him into seeking a seventh term.

Although Reynolds says Foley was merely deciding whether to run again, the talk in Republican circles on Capitol Hill was that he was ready to leave Congress. His inappropriate e-mails to a former page were known to the Republican leadership late last year. The 16th Congressional District was considered so safely Republican that any GOP candidate could carry it but now likely will be lost with Foley still on the ballot.

--So Robert Novak [who would know] admits that Foley's Peccadillos were well known to the leadership. Wotta surprise.

kingofzouk:
Yeah, diplomacy might not have worked in North Korea. But obviously lack of diplomacy hasn't worked, either. The difference is that going the non-diplomatic route give the DPRK another stick with which to beat us over the head in the battle for public opinion. They get to claim they're being oppressed by the big, bad Americans, and that gives them access to a built-in fanbase all around the world. If we bend over backwards to follow all of the diplomatic rules, North Korea is clearly the one being unreasonable, and we gain capital toward our purpose of making the DPRK an international pariah. If we "get tough", Kim Jong Il wins points by "standing up to us", and we *lose* political capital.

Diplomacy is just not something they understand, TJM. It's too complex, to win requires understanding and being smarter than your opponent. So we're at a disadvantage from the beginning. Like dumb beasts, all the base R's can understand is butting their heads against something. Or finding a hornet's nest and smashing it with a baseball bat.

diplomacy worked so well with Arafat and N Korea back in the clinton salad days???? why don't you Libs ever learn from mistakes? you clearly have no understanding of world affairs. Maybe you should just sit back, have another latte and let the adults take care of you. just like you always wanted for everyone else in your socialist nanny-state.

drindl:
I'm not going to argue that there's been any rational foreign policy under this administration, because there plainly hasn't. However, I don't think that there's much of anything anybody could have done to keep the DPRK from getting the bomb sooner or later. By being "too tough" I mean that the U.S. has needlessly antagonized North Korea and failed to live up to its treaty obligations. Speaking more softly might at least have bought us some more time.

GOP = Grand Old Phonies

"5 - whan all else fails - create another unweildy government program.."

Did you mean that the office of Homeland Security?

Or the NSA spying program?

Or were you speaking about Negraponte's new job title?

Which of Bush's many new, unweildly government programs are you talking about here?

On the McCaskill Talent debate, I thought McCaskil looked pretty good. She had good answers that sounded resonable and thought out. Talent did OK but he got slammed by Russert at every turn. My favorite was when he tried to make it sound like Iraq was going well and that our job was almost done. The guy really does not have a grasp on reality.

The ads portraying Max Cleland, who lost his limbs while fighting in Vietnam, as a wimpy terrorist sympathizer, practically a buddy of Osama bin Ladn, was disgusting, but it worked. As did the Jesse Helms ad with the white hand. One that backfired was one by the late Gov. Pat Brown of California, when he ran for reelection against Ronald Reagan: in one ad Brown is seeing asking a young black child if he knew that an actor killed Lincoln and that Reagan was also an actor. Just dumb. The daisy-plucking ad used by LBJ´s campaign against Goldwater was over the top but it was also effective. Best bumper sticker duel I can recall: Goldwater´s ´In Your Heart You Know He´s Right,´and the retort, ´In Your Guts, You Know He´s Nuts.´

'who seemed to be using the press release to argue that the Bush Administration had been too soft on North Korea. I think they've been too tough.'

Umm, you sound very reaosnable but I don't get that. If they've been 'too tough' why do we now have this nut with bomb? HUH? It isn't a questionof toughness, it's a question of rational policies, of which R's have none presently.

Oh and Tina -- the mushroom cloud condi warned about! it's here! She was right! Only it wasn't Iraq, was it? the real threat was NEVER addressed. Oops.

Hey G&B -- it's not difficult to ignore zouk. He's just thrashinng around on the floor foaming and soiling himself. Embarrassing.

"last gasps of real diplomacy before the U.S. began yet another unilateralist effort"

If Bush had been willing to simply send a surrogate to talk to NKorea, the tests would probably have been abandoned, or at least postponed.

Why won't Bush deal directly with NKorea?

Is there some sort of "diplomatic pride" that demeans us by talking to our enemies?

James Baker is quoted just this morning as saying that we need to talk directly to our adversaries around Iraq, in order to find stability in the region, but Bush's diplomatic ego and his secretary of defense Rumsfeld will have none of it.

Since when did serious diplomacy make a nation weak?

If our diplomacy is so weak, that we can only answer with military response, we are no superpower at all, just a big, blind dunderheaded dolt, swatting at fleas with a baseball bat and breaking our own bones in the process.

That is not what I would call ignoring zouk.

you can continue to try to ignore every point that is made, same as Dems nationwide. continue chanting. you may want to emply some of your usual approaches although I think they are running thin these days.
1- conspiracies whenever plausible
2 - pretend clinton was a saint
3 - no subject - just random insults
4 - trying to locate some principles
5 - whan all else fails - create another unweildy government program

Good posts TJM, and I agree with your 11:57am response to my post. I believe that they purposefully did nothing that would have prevented NKorea from testing the nuke so they could take advantage of the situation by playing the fear card at home... But there is no doubt that they did so without collusion. Kim Jong Il would never go for that.

Oh, and good job ignoring Zouk, all. Ive noticed an interesting pattern to his posts: #1 ignore reality on whatever topic, #2 blame clinton, #3 change subject, #4 appeal to "principles", #5 when all else fails, harp on "BigG" (to which he has never supplied a definition). That is his contribution to "debate" very sad.

Litmus Test of Calcification: It's been about 2100 days since Bush took office. Does he bear more than 0% responsibility for the bomb North Korea just tested? Yes or No.

From the party that thinks - "first grope doesn't count". the searching around for a moral base is quite amusing. when will you have the same values you had yesterday? Sending emails to 16 yo's is bad but abortions without any advice for 13 yo's is good. homosexuality is to be encouraged, unless you are running against a Dem. Being black is noble unless you run for R office. In those cases, bigotry is to be encouraged. the party of "whatever" is desperately trying to hit upon a zinger, any one, which will resonate sufficiently to get them through the next month. no sense wasting any time or effort on a foundation that might last more than a month. too bad the economy is doing so well. too bad the foreign policy you advocate is so clearly pointless. so you are left with "we will raise all teenagers wages by a buck if elected". Maybe you should try to lower the voting age to 12, same as you want to lower the age of consent, to capitalize on this policy. you will surely get the vote of those Wendy's workers who can't get the free government condoms.

drindl said:
"TJM--I wasn't talking about the $95 million per se -- but the fact that BUSH REMOVED THE NUCLEAR INSPECTORS FROM NORTH KOREA. WHY?"

It's in my second paragraph. The withdrawal of inspectors was meant to be an act of protest highlighting claims of North Korean intransigence. It was a step on the road to withdrawing from the Agreed Framework altogether and going the unilateral route. I agree that this was a reckless and bellicose maneuver. My objection was to JEP, who seemed to be using the press release to argue that the Bush Administration had been too soft on North Korea. I think they've been too tough.

I thought McCaskill and Talent were both middling on their TV debate yesterday. Talent dodging one way, McCaskill dodging the other way. I'm not a huge fan of Tim Russert, but he's very good at cutting to the chase on tough questions, and not letting the candidate finesse it without reasking the question. He doesn't always get the cut-and-dried answer he wants, but he asks it clearly and enough times to make it clear that the candidate is dodging. The one thing I wish McCaskill had done was respond to Talent's incessant repetition of the phrase "artificial deadline for withdrawal." All she needed to say was "I'm not looking at an artificial deadline. I want a GENUINE deadline."

I think the current ad by Devual Patrick who is ruuning for Governor in Mass. is very uplifting and has a great positive message and soundtrack.

"The outbreaks have sparked demands to create a new federal agency in charge of food safety."

Now there you liberals go again, trying to make the government bigger...

What business does the government have in the meat industry, anyway?

The meatpackers should be allowed to police themselves, no matter how many people get e-coli.

We sure don't want the government sticking their noses into our feedlots.

Of course, you all realize this is an exercise in sarcasm. Unfortuantely, it is an accurate rendition of the redneck mantra.

If there's one place these fake Texans want to diminish the size and power of government, it is in its oversight of food and ag industries like milk, meat and produce.

And if there's any one industry that needs closer scrutiny than the Ag industry, in order to keep the public safe, I can't think of it.

Government regulatory agencies aren't 'working' right now because they aren't supposed to. The are staffed by industry insiders, the foxes guarding the henhouses. Anybody with a brain knows this.

Oh, I forgot. I'm not dealing with someone with a brain.

There are two ads drawing attention in the Mass gubanatorial race right now. One, in which Healey attacks Patrick for having once defended a cop killer, brings to mind the infamous Willie Horton ads and suggests maybe it will backfire on her. Certainly, she has just forfeited the votes of any defense attorneys (not that she had any).
The second is one in which she implores voters to vote for her to avoid the unamerican, evil possibility of (gasp!) one party rule! Against the backdrop of the last six years of one party GOP (mis)rule, this is so hypocritical that it is funny. Overall, the ads by Healey, especially in contrast to Patrick's reasoned, calm ads, scream desperation and give me hope that Healey is history.

Chris, My favorite campaign ad. I don't remember the year or the candidate, but the office was the Washington State Land Commissioner. The opening camera panned over a Hawaiian beach and focused in on a guy taking a nap in a lawn chair. The, it said to vote for "whomever" becasue they would go out and commission the land, valiantly! It was wonderful! It was the best use of humor, sticking a pin an an unnecessary and bloated government office I have ever witnessed. "whomever" lost, but so did the office of land commissioner.

TJM--I wasn't talking about the $95 million per se -- but the fact that BUSH REMOVED THE NUCLEAR INSPECTORS FROM NORTH KOREA. WHY?

What earthly reason coudl there have been for that? Doesn't it look to you like everything they do is about trying to start a war? You can make a lot of profit in a very short time in a war, can't you? Ask rumsfeld and cheney...

"If Sherwood loses, then it just gives the Democrats more confidence in using "weapons of personal destruction" to ruin a Republican's career."

I thought Sherwood ruined his own career?

Or is he not to be held responsible for choking a woman, because he is a Republican Congressman?

Were the Democrats there to hold her arms while he choked her?

Do you even care whether or not a woman was actually abused by one of our authority figures?

Or is the fate of the Republican Party this election cycle more important to you than human rights and women's rights?

How could the Democrats damage Sherwood any more than he has done to himself?

Its the latest quick-response strategy from the Republican's brainwashed base; Blame the Dems first, then ask questions later.

And, by the way, was Bush SR. lying about his mistress? Politicians do lie, you know, R's and D's alike, but unfortunately for the R's, whoever is in power usually has to take responsibility for whatever comes of that power.

If so, the cult Republicans have no "pre-clinton" moral ground to go back in time to stand on, now that they've lost all contemporary moral credibility.

All their old delusions are based on stale lies and long-exposed cover-ups.

Shocking- Dems have one Federal agency that isn't quite working as promised - the solution: create another. same answer every time. And you socialists think this is a good idea?

There's a difference between a party with principles not doing a good job executing those principles and a party with no principles. Anyone who thinks that turning the reins of power over to Democrats will raise the country's moral bar should take a cold shower. -Star Parker

Dems doing something to fight the contaminated food epidemic caused by republican deregulaation:

'On Friday, an Iowa company announced that it was recalling 5,200 pounds of ground beef suspected of having E. coli. The government said no illnesses have been reported from consumption of the beef.

The outbreaks have sparked demands to create a new federal agency in charge of food safety. Sens. Charles Schumer and Hillary Rodham Clinton, both New York Democrats, are sponsoring legislation authored by Sen. Richard Durbin, D-Ill., to create the unified Food Safety Agency.

KOZ - from the Post today regarding McCaskill and Talant:

On Friday, a USA Today/Gallup survey of 577 likely voters, showed McCaskill leading Talent 48 percent to 45 percent, with 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was plus or minus five percentage points.

Sure, the poll is withing the margin of error but for an opponent to be leading an incumbent, even withing the margin of error, at this point shows how clueless Talant might be, at least in the eyes of the voters. Besides, this was a Democratic seat until Talant's election - it looks like after one term the voters might be going back that way.

KOZ - from the Post today regarding McCaskill and Talant:

On Friday, a USA Today/Gallup survey of 577 likely voters, showed McCaskill leading Talent 48 percent to 45 percent, with 7 percent undecided. The margin of error was plus or minus five percentage points.

Sure, the poll is withing the margin of error but for an opponent to be leading an incumbent, even withing the margin of error, at this point shows how clueless Talant might be, at least in the eyes of the voters. Besides, this was a Democratic seat until Talant's election - it looks like after one term the voters might be going back that way.

Check out the ads by the DNC in Michigan against Challenger for Governor Dick Devos. One of the funniest ones has a comment saying- do you think there's a province in China looking for governor? As CEO of Amway (a Michigan co.) Devos invested millions in China, while jobs at amway decreased over his tenure as CEO.

The $95 million of drindl's post question went not to North Korea directly, but to KEDO, the "Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization". KEDO is controlled primarily by the American, Japanese, and South Korean governments, and its purpose is to construct light water reactors in North Korea to replace the DPRK's heavy water reactors in accordance with the Agreed Framework of 1994. The idea behind this replacement was that it is much more difficult to use light water reactors to produce weapons-grade plutonium.

The waiver of inspection requirements came following North Korea's restrictions on the IAEA's access to its nuclear facilities. According to the 1994 treaty, this behavior was supposed to result in a suspension of aid, but the KEDO countries had not yet taken that step. The Bush Administration claimed at the time that calling attention to the DPRK's noncompliance as it released the money was meant as a first step toward the U.S. withdrawing from its treaty obligations altogether--and sure enough, in the fall of 2002 the Administration did just that.

The short version of all of this is that the action in the press release that drindl cites was in fact made in accordance with a longstanding treaty, and was one of the last gasps of real diplomacy before the U.S. began yet another unilateralist effort. North Korea has repeatedly cited American failure to live up to the KEDO obligations as a reason for going ahead with its nuclear program. I fully agree that Bush's North Korea policy has been a disastrous wrong turn, but this press release represents the last bit of sanity, not a dereliction of duty. That part came later.

kingofzouk - The facts are that the voters don't trust the keystone cops you guys installed as President any more. Get real! Bush and company have lied about the economy, lied about Iraq and Afghanistan, lied about the effects of outsourcing and guest workers, lied about their sexual proclivities, lied even about George's "faith", they handed out their last favor to some wealthy country club swine of a friend and are about to have the tires on their bandwagon removed and be the subject of investigations that will (hopefully) freeze Bush and his band of nut cases from doing *anything*.

It's a dangerous world out there and everyone is taking a very close look at George Bush right now and figuring out that he is just crazy enough to get them all killed. So, they are voting, not so much for the Democrats, as they are voting to get rid of the biggest mistake most of them ever made.

'If Sherwood loses, then it just gives the Democrats more confidence in using "weapons of personal destruction" to ruin a Republican's career. '

AS THEY SHOULD HAVE. Because that is ALL republicans have been doing for years now. It's time to take off the gloves and expose the R's for what they are --lying hypocrites. Time to make the same dirty ads they do, talking about their newts, their foleys, their their sherwoods. Time to talk about how R's running on 'values' is a tragic little inside joke.

TIME TO EXPOSE THE ROT AT THE CORE OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY.

"finally we have a President who understands this and is willing to do something difficult about it."

We're still waiting for that difficult action!! It seems that GWB would rather attack odious but non-nuclear dictators than deal with the countries and terrorists who constitute REAL threats to our nation's security.

The Swift Boat ads have to rank up there with ads that doomed a campaign -- surprised it did not get a mention in your piece, Mr Cillizza.

I have another New Mexico ad to mention -- the one that just started running out here that mentions that while Heather Wilson voted against extra money for Natl Guard, she voted herself a pay raise six times. What makes the ad particularly effective is that throughout the narration, there is a photo of HW with the caption, "Heather Wilson. She's changed." I do not know if it will have the cataclysmic effect of some of the other ads mentioned above, but I found it a strikingly effective piece of work, standing out over all of the other nasty ads being run by both sides in this race.

'But let us examine the idea that this North Korean test will help the president and by extension his party change the subject back to homeland security.

It was in January of 2002 that the president spoke these words: "North Korea is a regime arming with missiles and weapons of mass destruction, while starving its citizens. ... I will not wait on events, while dangers gather. I will not stand by, as peril draws closer and closer. The United States of America will not permit the world's most dangerous regimes to threaten us with the world's most destructive weapons. "

So, how will we "not permit" North Korea to threaten us?

Certainly not through immediate military action. No, the president said this morning he was committed to a diplomatic course through the United Nations.

Perhaps voters will find this wise, but given the president's original bellicose promise "not to permit," it will be harder to make the case that only he and the Republicans can protect the homeland.'

Remember how Bush WOULD NOT PERMIT kimjong to threaten us... and what became of that, hmm?

INCOMPETENT. IMPOTENT. LIAR.

Did Joel Klein ever apologize to Bill Clinton for his book "Primary Colors"? It came out in 1996, and if Bob Dole had won the election, would Klein have taken credit for taking down a president? Gary Hart had his problems and pulled out of a White House race as well.

If Sherwood loses, then it just gives the Democrats more confidence in using "weapons of personal destruction" to ruin a Republican's career. Then the challenge becomes on the Democrats to beware of their own sexual affairs with staff members or whatever blows their skirt up, so to speak.

I think the historic reporting of Gary Studds, and others is that neither side should be messing around. Foley is out, his career is over, but I doubt the entire party will suffer for the bad behavior of one or two. I can't place guilt on all Democrats for the bad behavior of their own members. I think that is the message.

Repairman;
"That was possibly the most important single TV ad of the 88 presidential campaign."

Id call it the most important single TV ad of a whole political generation...

It was a glimpse into the future of "fear for sale", and showed where Republican political strategy was heading, which is where we are right now.

Let us not forget who worked right alongside these fear-mongering Willie Horton strategists in that campaign.

W was 2nd in command under Atwater, he was Daddy Bush's bully enforcer, then Lee got caught with his pants down in Rolling Stone.

Where was Rove at that time?

Anyone remember?

Was Karl involved in the Willy Horton fearmongering ruse, or was that all Atwater?

clinton had at least ten chances to get OBL - he took a shot on one occasion. Perhaps he was firing away from Monica instead of towards Osama - regardless, after the criticism, he crawled back and never acted again. even after a Navy warship was blown wide open. 8 years, 10 or 11 opportunities, no competing interests to distract and yearly incidents or attacks - yet no results. you say dick clarke but clinton himself ignored him, now plays him off as some sort of sage. attacked Kosovo - from 20,000 feet - without UN or congressional approval and no threat to us interests??? simply put, police can't get terrorists, soldiers need to do it - the important distinction between the two in attitude and action taken.

Versus what - 8 months in a new administration (remember those days - Dems were so angry about the election loss nothing happened in congress).

do you know how long it takes to build a nuke? when do you think these programs started? what signals were sent in the 90s that they could do as they please? which signals should be sent? how does a country do this - by appeasement? I think not.

'October Surprise, Kim Jong Il Tests Bush
President Bush calls North Korea's nuclear test a "provocative act." Might the test actually be a gift for a Republican party in need of a boost?'

From ABC -- this is how insane the media has become. A madman acquires a nuclear weapon and they suggest that this is a 'gift' for republlicans?

Jesus christ, how monstrous. How absolutely monstrous that anyone could think like this. So much for the 'liberal media'. incredible.

I have to agree that Baucus' 2002 ad portraying Taylor as a 70s hairdresser was reprehensible. What I really didn't get about it--and I think it's emblematic of the paranoia among elected officials but especially Democrats--is that Baucus was going to win in a landslide anyway. Like Nixon in 72. Why bother doing such stupid, outrageous, damaging, or costly things when you don't even need them in the first place?

But, to suggest that Democrats rather than Republicans are the ones guilty of gay-baiting is truly ridiculous and laughable.

Somebody mentioned the Newsmax story, and it is here for you to read and make up your own minds:

Brazile Spread Rumor About Former President Bush By Ronald Kessler

When running for president, Michael S. Dukakis fired campaign aide Donna Brazile, who later became Al Gore's campaign manager, for spreading a rumor. The rumor was that then-Vice President George H.W. Bush was having an affair with his executive assistant. These details are laid out in a new book by Bush's daughter, Doro Bush Koch.

For the book, "My Father, My President: A Personal Account of the Life of George W. Bush," Doro Koch interviewed 135 people ranging from Dukakis and former President Clinton to Tony Blair, President Bush, Laura Bush, Gov. Jeb Bush, and Vice President Dick Cheney. In addition, she obtained written recollections from another 167 people.

Only a few news accounts in 1999 mentioned the firing of Donna Brazile, now a Democratic strategist, for spreading the rumor about Bush and Jennifer Fitzgerald, Bush's executive assistant when he was chief liaison to China and later director of Central Intelligence.

Asked about the rumor back then, George H.W. Bush told Newsweek in June 1987, "The answer to the big 'A' question is N-O." Koch's account is the first to quote Dukakis himself about the incident.

"To hell with that," Dukakis told Koch. "I just said, 'Look, we're not going to have any part of that.'"

"I love that he [Dukakis] fired her, and that he wasn't going to stand for that," Doro Koch said in a NewsMax interview. "And one of the funny things that happened to me, and I didn't interview her for the book because I just didn't have time, but I bumped into Donna Brazile one day. And she came up to me and she said -- this is so typical of my dad -- she said, 'I love your father!' I said, 'Really?' And she said, 'Your dad, he forgave me for all that, and I'd do anything for him. Do you want me to write a blurb for the book?'" .....

As Koch tells it, the idea for her book came from Patty Presock, perhaps former President Bush's closest assistant in the White House. Presock kept separate files for some of Bush's most personal correspondence and notes, with the idea that they might someday form the basis for a book. ........

For the first time, "My Father, My President" gives a detailed account of how President Bush authorized then-Deputy Chief of Staff Andy Card to fire Chief of Staff John Sununu. The book also reveals that a CBS producer boasted he would knock Bush out of the race against Dukakis by getting Bush to lose his cool during an interview with Dan Rather, who was briefed before the interview by a Democratic advisor.

"My dad is a relationships guy," Koch said. "He still maintains a really good relationship with Gov. Sununu, which I think is amazing. I mean people whom basically Dad has had to fire, and they still love my dad."

The book says that when Ronald Reagan was undergoing surgery, presidential power was temporarily transferred to Bush, who was vice president. During that time, Bush stumbled and momentarily blacked out while playing tennis, leaving the country without a president for a few seconds.

Asked if her father regretted anything, Koch said, "He regretted saying 'Read my lips -- no new taxes.' Then he had to go ahead and agree to a deal that would raise taxes for the good of the American people, but to his own political peril."

She said Bush felt that if he had had the communication skills of a Ronald Reagan, he might have been able to explain his decision better.

Cold War Ends Without a Bang

Asked what her father was proud of, Koch said, "Dad is not someone who will tell you, 'Well, I'm most proud of this.' But I think Dad is very proud of ushering in the end of the Cold War without a conflict. And to this day, he maintains all these relationships with world leaders and people he knew when he was president, and I'm sure he's proud of that."

Koch said her father has chosen not to write an autobiography because, rather than looking back, he's always looking for the next project.

"His mother taught him a lot of the very basic lessons in life," Koch said. "And one of them was, 'Don't talk about yourself.' I think that must have had something to do with it."

Despite being a politician, Koch said, "My dad has sort of maintained his moral compass throughout and has been able to hold on to what's important in life. Obviously, going in I admired him. But coming out of it, I admire him just tenfold. Lou Gehrig, who said he was the luckiest man on the face of the earth, is my dad's hero. And my dad feels that way as well."

Oh yeah, I forgot, he hasn't done anything about the genocide in Darfur either.

Appreciate you bringing up the Taylor ad. Another example of the Democrats gay-baiting and raising allegations of perversion to win elections.

I like Robert's question about TV ads that had the opposite effect--tanking a politician's candidacy. While it certainly wasn't the only factor, Michael Dukakis' spontaneous decision to get in a tank driving around with a dopey smile and helmet definitely made him look like a joke and damaged his candidacy. What's a shame is that he was partially trying to remind people that he was a Korean War vet. But he was a terrible campaigner who should never have been allowed to make such decisions for himself. In that same race, I think you'd have to note Bush's (Atwater's) racist Willie Horton ad. That was possibly the most important single TV ad of the 88 presidential campaign. Its premise wasn't really even accurate (the furlough program it criticized was created by a Republican governor), but what mattered is that it reinforced hesitations people already had about Dukakis.

Similarly, no question that the racist Helms "white hands" ad played a major role in reelecting him against Harvey Gantt, as someone else noted above. Even though affirmative action has nothing to do with quotas, which the Supreme Court banned in the early 1980s.

The "daisy" ad is quite infamous, and you can see it on the site I linked to above. There was also a Humphrey ad in 1968 that was considered mean, but that I find kind of entertaining. (That Dukakis could've used in 88) All it did was put Spiro Agnew's name on the screen, and you hear a guy laughing hysterically at the idea of the guy as VP. Then at the end an announcer comes on and says something like, "It would be funny if it weren't serious". Too bad Humphrey lost that one 43.4%-42.7%.

I watched the 2 minute Allen ad. I also thought Susan Allen looked ridiculous in it. She was there for her looks?? Come on, that's like Bill Clinton blowing his presidency for Monica Lewinsky! ;)

http://sandwichrepair.blogspot.com

KOZ, who went after the terrorists? Clinton fired missiles at Bin Laden and tried to get the guy. He attacked Kosovo to protect Muslims from genocide. He left the White House trusting President Bush would listen to Dick Clarke.

Bush didn't listen. He did do the right thing and go into Afghanistan but then decided to finish Daddy's job in Iraq instead of killing Bin Laden. Now the whackjob in Iran is a hero of the Arab street and both Iran and North Korea are going to have nukes.

Now there's a conspiracy theory of monumental proportions.'

It's all about that same thing -- M-O-N-E-Y."

That is the very conspiracy I was alluding to, the ultimate conspiracy of greed that underpins the Republican platform.

'scuse me, I meant Boehner...

"Chris Cillizza seems to be more interested in sex instead of who is the best person for the job in Congress."

No, that's Hastert, Foley and Boner.

See JEP, it isn't a conspiracy at all --

'Why would Bush and Cheney ever want to remove our nuclear inspectors AND give NKorea $95 million?

Now there's a conspiracy theory of monumental proportions.'

It's all about that same thing -- M-O-N-E-Y.

Carlysle, Bush senior's company, was involved in the deal too. And I would be Cheney made $ on it as well. Just the same way that Bush's grandfather got rich dealing with the Nazis, Bush senior got it from selling the security of the US.

A whole family of traitors and their assorted cronys. And to beleive there are still people in this country rock-bucket stupid enough to believe their lies.

did anyone notice how clearly out of her league Talant's opponent was in the MTP debate? I think some of the nut-jobs on this site must have written her material. I suspect that her numbers will drop off precipitously now. how embarrassing.