A QUESTION FOR THE EXPERTS:
Does a Lieberman win help or hinder the Dems chance to regain control of the Senate??

My answer: THE DEMS LOSE THE SEAT!

1. The 44 Senate seats currently held by the Dems include the CURRENT Senate seat held by the 'D'-Lieberman.
2. But the 'D'-Lieberman seat was officially lost in the primary! So it rests now in the tentative hands of 'D'-Lamont.
3. If the 'D'-Lamont loses, the Democratic Party in Connecticut has officially LOST THE SENATE ELECTION!! And the Senate count is reduced to 43 when the new Congress convenes.( before adding any new gains.)
4. If the 'I'-Lieberman wins he has NO EFFECT ON THE SENATE PARTY NUMBERS! Just as Jeffords had no effect on increasing either sides' number.

So all this B.S. about where Lieberman caucuses means diddly! Because its his 'D' seat that counts in official Minority/Minority numbers, not his rhetoric.
A Joe win is bad for the Dems!!

So, if I'm right why are the Dems so willing to deliberately let the seat go and accept a 'caucusing only Independant', with Senate control just inches away??

By the way, I'm not sure if anyone else follows the futures markets, but it looks like today the markets downgraded the chances of the GOP retaining the House and Senate respectively, although they still give the edge to the GOP in the Senate (as I write it is currently around a 70% chance for retaining the Senate, versus around 20% for the House).

The anecdotal evidence of good reporters/commentators who I've followed for years tells me - Big Wave.

One of those, David Broder, has it even larger seismically. From his column yesterday: "Bernadette Budde, the shrewd political observer who runs BIPAC, the Business Industry Political Action Committee, told me that the right description of this election cycle is not a 'tidal wave' against the GOP but 'an earthquake.'

"'A wave recedes, she said, 'but an earthquake reflects deep shifts in the underlying structure. The voters are deeply dissatisfied with the failure of government to move forward on the real problems the country faces.'"

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/03/AR2006110301403_pf.html
Interesting.

Bob Novak today even cited "...rapid deterioration in the past week." (in the Republican campaigns)

All of which leads me to believe that my estimate that the Democrats will pick up 25 seats in the House is too conservative. I still think that they will get five in the Senate, but six is just one too many.

The only "success" which the Republicans will be able to claim is if they retain control of both chambers. If they don't, any talk of "success" is rationalizing or self-delusion.

Republicans are so afraid to run on their merits that they continue to resort to dirty tricks.

Tim Daly from Clarendon got a call saying that if he votes Tuesday, he will be arrested. A recording of his voicemail can be found online at: www.webbforsenate.com/media/phone_message.wav

The transcript from his voicemail reads:

"This message is for Timothy Daly. This is the Virginia Elections Commission. We've determined you are registered in New York to vote. Therefore, you will not be allowed to cast your vote on Tuesday. If you do show up, you will be charged criminally."

Daly has been registered to vote in Virginia since 1998, and he has voted for the last several cycles with no problem. He has filed a criminal complaint with the Commonwealth's attorney in Arlington.

More from the Webb campaign (from an email):

Widespread Calls, Allegedly from "Webb Volunteers," Telling Voters that their Polling Location has Changed.

A couple of examples:

a. Norman Cox has been registered to vote in the same location in Arlington since 1972. Someone from a 406 number (in Montana) called to tell him that his polling place has changed. [Note: The Webb Campaign is NOT making any such phone calls.] Cox said he believed that he was being mislead and the caller hung up.

b. Peter Baumann in Cape Charles, VA (North Hampton) got a similar call from a "Webb volunteer" saying his polling location had changed. He said: No, I'm a poll worker and I know where I vote. The girl--who was calling from California--hung up.

The Secretary of the State Board of Elections Jean Jensen has logged dozens of similar calls, finding heavy trends in Accomack County (middle peninsula) and Essex County (outer peninsula) [as reported by the counties' registrars].

3) Fliers in Buckingham County Say "SKIP THIS ELECTION" (paid for by the RNC) have caused many in the African American community to call the Board of Elections to see if the election is still on. The full tag line says: "SKIP THIS ELECTION... (and then in smaller print): Don't Let the Tax and Spend Liberals Win."

4) Voter Machine Problems.

a. On many ballots in heavily Democratic neighborhoods, Jim's name is cut off. The ballots say: "James H. (Jim)" with no Webb.

b. New reports that ballots in Essex County have Jim's name split on 2 pages. The "James H (Jim)" on one page, "Webb" on the next.

c. Reports of voting machines in Isle of White that do not provide a clear image of the ballot, making voting a challenge.

Bobby Wightman-Cervantes

Those number are right in line with what they were Saying on McLaughlin on Saturday night.

I think the latitude is how broadly "toss-up" is defined.

Even the guy from the Washington Times said that given a lock on 12 and a toss-up on over 20, the odds of getting 15 is pretty good.

Not surprisingly though the talk was how the White House would spin any lower loss numbers as Rove's margin of success in minimizing losses.

Krauthammer was already spinning that in this mornings Chicago Trib, spewing about how normal mod term losses are over 30 and keeping them low is a testament to the R's success.

Yes, lylepink, he does.

Here's your 'small government' at work... seizing the private medical records of women who have had a legal mdical procedure -- and then handing them over to a radical rightwing TV talkshow host:

'TOPEKA, Kansas (AP) -- Two abortion clinics asked the state's highest court Monday to investigate Attorney General Phill Kline and Fox television's Bill O'Reilly over O'Reilly's statements that he had information from Kansas abortion records.

The clinics' attorneys want the Kansas Supreme Court to seize records that Kline, an outspoken abortion opponent, obtained on 90 of the clinics' patients.

The attorneys asked the court to appoint a special prosecutor to determine if O'Reilly's information came from the records turned over to Kline.

O'Reilly said Friday on his show "The O'Reilly Factor" that an inside source gave him information.'

JimD in Fl: I have not heard of a Porter Gauss. Could you mean Porter Goss? Just wondering.

'Alan: I would love to see nasty, racist Wyo. Rep. Barbara Cubin (R) bounced from the House.'

That mean old dog Jean Schmidt [R] in Ohio, too.

Alan: I would love to see nasty, racist Wyo. Rep. Barbara Cubin (R) bounced from the House.

Folks, the reality is the GOP has played defense in ways we could only hope for. MY projections remain in the 25-30 house races and the Senate 50-50.

What is in play is the GOP is spending time and money in RED states they had not planned. This HAS paved the way for DEMS to take the House. Anybody can see the DEM strategy is absolutely focuses on making the Northeast and Midwest all blue. This geographical region will be quite a balance to the GOP southern strategy.

The shift this cycle is to blue in the former Moderate GOP territories. THe battle now is to turn the interior mountain states to at least a purple hue. THis is also happening.

As for GOP tightening in polls, folks this was going to happen. The neocons are not going away easily. I no the Democratic breathern believe in their hearts of hearts this election should be slam dunk. However, in politics, things change slower.

This election is a reaction to the neocons actions. It is a fundamental shift away from the wayward movement to the right this country has seen over the past 12 years. So regardless if the final numbers, tomorrow is a major turning point in the direction of America. So go vote and vote often. Maybe one of your votes gets counted by Diebold.

The neocons are history. Stick a fork in em.

JEP,

sorry for delay in responding - I had meetings and the gym - I agree with our position about being a Team player, but there is more than one play available

A full study of the polling indicates that Dems were getting over confident - we need to make sure everyone knows that the numbers are slipping for us and Tuesday is not a day of rest because it is a sure thing.

If getting Dems to believe it is okay to challenge the leadership is what it takes to get them out to vote then so be it- we are working hard in South Texas to get the vote out for Dem Chris Bell for Governor -

when we hear traditional Dems start to bad mouth the party we say - cool it is good to debate - lets win and then we will clean house - if allowing them to vent means getting them to vote then I say vent all of the way.

Colin,

gerrymandering has become the excuse - we know this all too well in Texas - Texas Democrats who want to save the party from itself are infuriated with Dean and Pelosi's refusal to even admit we have problems in Texas - we have to fight tooth and nail to keep people in the party with nothing but contempt from Dean and Pelosi

here in south texas with the debate finally being opened to dissent against the Democratic Party leadership , people finally feel like it is okay to vote again because maybe this time we can clean house.

Bobby WIghtman-Cervantes
www.balancingtheissues.com

Just to reiterate my earlier predictions:

House -- Dems + 35

Senate -- Dems +5 (six could happen, but I'm not betting on it)

Alan: Did you mean the GOP "incombatant" in Wyoming, after Cubin's threat to the disabled candidate?

The Gallup poll on the Montana Senate race is the second to widely disagree with the Mason Dixon poll. In mid October, Mason Dixon showed it at 47-44 Tester, while an independant poll, run each election by Montana State University-Eastern, based in Billings, MT, showed Tester with a 47-36 advantage over Burns. Now we have Mason Dixon showing the race deadlocked at 47-47 and Gallup showing Tester at 50-39, still an 11-point lead with 11 percent not yet declaring a preference. The MSU-Eastern poll has been done every general election for years and has a history for accuracy. It will interesting to see who is farthest off tommorrow evening when the actual returns come in.

In the house, look for an upset in the Wyoming at large US house district. This race is off everyone's radar, but it is the Democrat now in a dead heat with the GOP incombant and with the closing momentum.

42 in the House,

6 (maybe 7) in the Senate.

I think the Senate will end up 50/50 unless there is an upset in AZ or NV that would gain an extra seat for the Democrats.

Rob
http://robwire.com

To pick up on something I mentioned in my last post- Porter Gauss was installed as CIA Director more for his political loyalty to the president than his ability to manage a major intelligence agency. This has been the hallmark of the Bush administration - appointing people to positions that require competence in certain areas soley on the basis of their political loyalty. A number of total incompetents were appointed in this manner, most famously, Brownie at FEMA.

drindl

Well I screwed up my post - I meant to say that I read a lot more about the CIA problems than the FBI problems. The CIA actually has been leaking quite a bit. That is one of the reasons Bush appointed a partisan like Gauss. They believed that the career CIA employees did not support the president's agenda and that CIA employees were leaking information that would undercut the administration's position on various issue. Gauss was installed to put an administration loyalist in charge at CIA and put a stop to the leaks

Slight adjustment from my earlier daily update, on US House only. I had skipped some lines in the spreadsheet.

US House
Dems +22
28 toss ups (2 D, 26 R)
Dems have advantage in 14, Reps have adv in 12, 2 dead even
11/6 RMill call: Dems +30

I've been amazed over the course of the Spring and Summer at how much personal investment many posters on The Fix put in "polls."

It's almost always that Candidate A must have done something wrong, where Candidate A was higher at one point but Candidate B is closing the gap.

Not necessarily.

Elections are much like the Economy; for the most part, there are many forces in play which neither side can control. Fix posters investing so much personal mental energy in polls, especially where we've seen such disparity in them this year, is nothing more than a prescription for anxiety.

I like RMill's approach; the polls are what they are, a snapshot on a given day, and they'll be different tomorrow.

It may be overused, but there is truly "only one poll which counts." Don't waste mental energy until that one is official.

Also, calling for heads on pikes is premature just because "gaps are closing." The gaps always close in the last week or two. It happens even when "perfect" campaigns are run.

Considering that we have been very close to a 50-50 divide for six years now, with Congressional re-districting re-inforcing that, why should we expect anything much duifferent?

Democrats winning just 218 House seats would be significant; everything after that is gravy. Democrats winning five Senate seats would be significant given the structure of this cycle's Senate class; six would be outstanding.

Republicans holding the Democrats below a gain of 15 in the house, or six in the Senate is indeed a victory (not just a lowered expectation); because they retain the power to control everything for another two years.

My guess though is: 1) Big Wave in the House and 2) the equivalent of that in the Senate, but because of what the Democrats had to win, the Senate probably ends in a tie.

"20 house seats and 5 Senate seats will be portrayed as a vindication of R policies"

Now that's one for the books.

That is one of the best spins you've provided for us EVER Zouk, are you really related to Baghdad Bob?

This is nothing more than your own backwards admission that you've been a blowhard all this time, you are just transparently setting us all up for your next generation of rationalization and denial of the abject failure of your neocon lords and masters.

I remember a time when you still believed Blackwell was a shoo-in. And Allen was ultimately Presidential material.

But now, with Dems poised to take the house and MAYBE the Senate, you will call anything short of a total sea-change reversal a victory for the R's.

Life is pretty simple when you can even fool yourself.

I hate the polls and I don't really hold stock to them. Most say Bush rating is down but I just believe the Republicans are the ones that are down. I hold to being a conservative neither Republican nor Democrat but I tend to lean toward the Republicans most of the time. However, the Republicans will undoubtedly fail if they don't stand together and be honest about who they are. Some Republicans are distancing themselves from Bush and causing a split that won't heal. Republicans do not seem to be strong on any issue and become turncoats when the going gets tough. If they would just stick together they would become strong. I would rather they lose all the seats instead of running away. It is sad that politicians will hang onto the job and not their values when it comes to the vote. Two parties want to rule America and I for one am sick of it. Elections are more like The Hatfield's and The McCoy's instead of leaders. I am a strong American and I support American traditional values.

"Nancy will expand the privacy no call list to stop political robo calls. Ryun voted to allow these political calls and is now using them in this campaign."

The real change begins when people like Nancy Boyda get in there and do the right thing about these draconian tactics, which R's just don't seem to be capable of, and now we know why.

Andy R,

I was waiting for someone to remind Senator Dole that there is no filibuster on Meet the Press.

Just got this off of the Nancy Boyda website, maybe this is exactly why Rove expected Dems to be angry at thier own candidates...

Jim Ryun's running behind her in the polls, and they are obvioulsy desperate. Political desperation is certainly the mother of campaign cunning...

ROBO CALL NOTICE!!!!

Someone is flooding homes with harassing robo calls. They are making it sound like many are coming from the Boyda campaign. These calls are part of the dirty tricks funded by billion dollar lobbyists from back East.

Our campaign made only one call last week and it was a positive message. Please download this message and pass it one to your email contacts and ask everyone to vote for Nancy Boyda. Nancy will expand the privacy no call list to stop political robo calls. Ryun voted to allow these political calls and is now using them in this campaign.

We have received calls from all over the district that our yard signs are being stolen. Chalk that up to more dirty politics. Please report the incident to the police department.

Please tell everyone you know about these issues!

Incidentally, I think it is fascinating to think about this particular Senate group in isolation (and holding aside special elections). If my numbers are right, in the 1994 elections which handed the Senate to the GOP, it went from 21 Dem/12 GOP to 14 Dem/19 GOP. But then in 2000 it switched back to 18 Dem/15 GOP. That made the Senate 50-50, and of course Jeffords eventually flipped to the Democratic caucus, but Talent later took the seat that had been won in 2000 by the late Mel Carnahan and held by Jean Carnahan, bring it all back to 18 Dem/15 GOP (including Vermont with the Democrats).

So, a three-seat pickup for the Democrats (including VT and CT in their column) would put it right back to 21 Dem/12 GOP, which is where it was before 1994. And anything better than three seats would lead to even a better margin in this group than the Democrats enjoyed before 1994.

Now it looks like the Republican strategy, after six years of control of the White House and Congress, is to make crank calls (robocalls).

How impressive. How mature.

If you can't run on your record, make crank calls.

troll:

If you don't keep the house, it will be an overwhelming and complete metldown of your party. and that would do you some good.

I just wanted to post this election guide that was posted today. This tells you which races to watch for trends tomorrow night:

http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/2006/11/2006-election-night-viewer-guide.html

Any additions RMill?

DTM,
If any republican doesn't think that Elizabeth Dole is a complete moron they aren't paying attention. Did you see her on meet the press yesterday? Complete diahrea of the mouth, the woman just wouldn't shut-up, and she was talking nonsense. I thought that Rahm Emmanuel was going to reach across the table and smack her.

andy:

I hope you are right - I truly do.

JEP:

But you see - wouldn't it be great to not have to rely on 'maccaca' moments to swing it towards the left?

Also - I absolutely 100% agree with taking the moral high ground in campaigns, but as we were talking about late last week in regards to a couple of guys who wouldn't run negative ads and a couple who wouldn't take PAC money, it doesn't seem to won elections, does it? I have been proud that the Dems seem to, on average, run more positive, or at least less negative, campaigns. It is a hard line to draw. I don't want to 'win at any cost' - that is as bad as second-guessing the team captain at half-time, but I also see too many possibly good political careers being ruined by the other side - will Harold Ford have a future as a bright star after losing, potentially badly, to Corker? Maybe - but most likely not.
I don't remember a successful campaign that was revered for being 'positive'. . .

Most of all, whether you are JEP or Bobby or drindl or KOZ or bhoomes, the most important thing is that you vote. It is a given for those of us here, but try to get one person to the polls who would not have otherwise gone. It makes me very sad that so many people do not take advantage of this most basic right.

By the way, to back up an earlier comment:

I went back and looked at all the Congressional Countdowns. As previously noted it started with 5 leans GOP, 21 toss-up, and 9 leans Dem (which I will denote as "5/21/9").

It then went to 5/18/12. After a couple days it went to 5/17/13. After a few more days it went to 4/18/13 for a couple days. Next it went to 1/21/13 for a few days, and most recently it has been back at 3/20/12 for a few days.

Overall these are not huge moves, and mostly the trend for the Democrats has been positive, although obviously 3/20/12 is not quite as good as 1/21/13.

And as previously noted, all this doesn't take into account the wider universe of races in which the Democrats could make gains.

"tens of thousands of Republican volunteers"

No, Michael my friend, they aren't volunteers at all, they are actually being PAID!!!

ELECTION ALARM!! SPREAD THE WORD!!

For uncensored news please bookmark:

otherside123.blogspot.com
http://www.waynemadsenreport.com/
www.wsws.org
www.takingaim.info

http://www.michaelmoore.com/words/message/index.php?messageDate=2006-11-06

The Race Between the Right Wing and the Right Thing ...a message from Michael Moore

Friends,

Tomorrow night, those who sent 2,800 of our soldiers to their deaths -- all because of a lie the president concocted -- will find out if America chooses to reward them -- or remove them.

As good as things look for the Democrats, do not pop the corks and start the partying yet. Do not believe for a second that the Republicans plan on losing. They will fight like dogs for the next 24 hours -- relentless, unforgiving, nonstop action to squeeze every last conservative voter out of the house on election day. While the rest of us go about our day today, tens of thousands of Republican volunteers are knocking on doors, making phone calls, and lining up rides to the polls. They're not sleeping, they're not eating, they're not even watching Fox News. A day without Fox News? That's right, that's how insanely dedicated they are.

But the reason they have to work so hard is that, before they can get the vote out, they first have to completely turn around the massive public opinion against them. Almost 60% disapprove of Bush. Over 60% are opposed to the war. Those are landslide numbers. And the American people are not going to turn pro-war or into Bush-lovers by tomorrow morning. So it should be easy for us, right?

Yup. Just like it was when we won the popular vote in 2000 and when we were ahead in the exit polls all day long in 2004. You know the deal -- the other side takes no prisoners. And just when it seems like things are going our way, the Republicans suddenly, mysteriously win the election.

Well, it's not really that mysterious. They're out there busting their asses this very minute, right down the street from you. What are YOU doing? You're on a computer reading my cranky letter! Stop reading this! We have only a few hours left to wrestle control of the Congress away from these "representatives" who, if returned, will continue shipping our young men and women over there to die.

Here's what I'm imploring you to do right now:

1. Go through your address book on your cell phone and computer and call/e-mail everyone you know. Tell them how much it would mean to you if they vote on Tuesday. If they don't know where to vote, help them find their polling place.

2. Contact MoveOn.org ASAP. They will connect you to the folks who need you to make calls.

3. Contact your local Democratic Party headquarters. There are close races in nearly every state. They'll put you to work -- on the ground or on the phones. Or go to the local HQ for the Dem candidate running for the House of Representatives or the U.S. Senate and say, "Put me to work!"

OK, turn off the computer -- and I will, too. There's serious work to do. The good news? There's more of us than there are of them. Let's prove that, once and for all.

Is there anything more important that you have to do today? Nothing less than the rest of the world is depending on us.

Yours,
Michael Moore
www.michaelmoore.com
mmflint@aol.com

This cycle will depend mainly on the folks that want the change and how hard they work to get their voters to the polls. All else matters not one bit. The dems should easily take the House but the Senate is a ? mark at best and yet could be won with a good turnout mainly in Tenn. and Va.

Well, in the 6 year environment, those figures (15 seat-H and 3 seat - S) are considered a win and after all the Big Wave talk, 20 house seats and 5 Senate seats will be portrayed as a vindication of R policies as well as a black eye for pollsters and the lib press. the Dems have not managed expectations very well and are almost sure to be dissappointed. It seeems you have misunderestimated again. If you don't get the house, it well be an overwhelming and complete metldown of your party. and that would do you some good for next time.

Star11, I understand your feelings. But in the broader picture, there will always be a few bad moments for each candidate in any campaign, and a few bad candidates for each party in any election. So, while it may well be that the Democrats fall just short in the Senate because they did not do everything perfectly, perfection just is not a reasonable expectation. And if one is comparing the Democrats to the Republicans overall, particularly in the Senate, then I think the Democrats have easily done a better job campaigning this year.

Incidentally, in my experience, privately a lot of Republicans will say the same thing, and I gather a lot of Republicans are very unhappy with Elizabeth Dole right now.

"If the Dems don't gain the Senate, let's hope that John Paul Stevens can hang on at least a couple more years."

That is very good point, with some interesting angles.

I've said before that the supposedly "moral conservatism" of this collection of W judges is not nearly as important to the neocons as their corporate patronage. These Bush judges are going to disappoint the religious right, but they will never let thier corporate icons down.

'Wherever you are, this can be your last-minute campaign effort: tell your undecided friends and co-workers about the Republicans' stunning record of incompetence in managing our national security. They don't know the truth, so lay it on 'em.

"Homeland Security estimates that the detonation (of a rail-based) chlorine container would kill 17,500 and injure 100,000.

Yet despite its own calamitous assessment of the risk ... DHS continues to rely on the voluntary cooperation of the rail industry ..." (The Next Attack, by Daniel Benjamin and Steven Simon)

The investigative unit that was uncovering outrageous cost overruns and contract failures - failures that put our troops in danger - was just shut down by the Republicans in Congress.

Several studies have shown that airport screeners are no more effective at preventing weapons from getting on planes than they were before 9/11.

In another sign of lousy postwar planning, they failed to secure the arms depots in Iraq: "In the fall of 2004, U.S. intelligence estimated that at least 4,000 missiles from Iraq's arsenal could not be accounted for ... The RAND Corporation ... determined that if a single aircraft were destroyed by a missile, the direct economic cost to the United States would be $1 billion. The indirect cost ... would reach $50 billion." (The Next Attack)

Guess they were too busy stealing missiles to welcome us with flowers.

The missile defense system they keep bragging about is just a boondoggle for their rich contractor friends. It just keeps failing and failing.

Generals, defense experts, and even the Army Times have called for Rumsfeld's resignation, but they keep him in place anyway. If bullsh** was bullets, his name would be Winchester. Talk is cheap and Rummy's the cheapest guy the've got. He's an amateur. Lose him.

They place politics over our national defense, time and time again: "A number of key appointments to White House posts involving career civil servants with vital experience have been held up because of concerns about the political loyalties of the individuals ... candidates report being flummoxed in their interviews by questions from White House staff about who they voted for in the last election." (The Next Attack )

The cost of bomb-detection machines at airports has skyrocketed, although the machines are so inefficient that their usefulness is being questioned altogether. Still, somebody's getting rich. (Funny how that keeps happening.)

There still has been no coordinated effort to create countermeasures against the use of private planes and/or ultralights in a terrorist attack. But did you hear that Michael Chertoff was just given a medal? Unbelievable. Must have had something to do with New Orleans.'

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rj-eskow/before-they-vote-tell-yo_b_33352.html

The new chief of the FBI's Criminal Division, which is swamped with public corruption cases, says the bureau is ramping up its ability to catch crooked politicians and might run an undercover sting on Congress.

Assistant FBI Director James Burrus called the bureau's public corruption program "a sleeping giant that we've awoken," and predicted the nation will see continued emphasis in that area "for many, many, many years to come."

So much evidence of wrongdoing is surfacing in the nation's capital that Burrus recently committed to adding a fourth 15- to 20-member public corruption squad to the FBI's Washington field office.

In the past year, former Republican Reps. Duke Cunningham and Bob Ney have pleaded guilty to corruption charges. FBI agents are investigating about a dozen other members of Congress, including as many as three senators. The Justice Department also is expected to begin seeking indictments soon after a massive FBI investigation of the Alaska Legislature.

If conditions warrant, Burrus said, he wouldn't balk at urging an undercover sting like the famed Abscam operation in the late 1970s in which a U.S. senator and six House members agreed on camera to take bribes from FBI agents posing as Arab sheikhs.

"We look for those opportunities a lot," Burrus said, using words rarely heard at the bureau over the last quarter century. "I would do it on Capitol Hill. I would do it in any state legislature. ... If we could do an undercover operation, and it would get me better evidence, I'd do it in a second." [...]

The FBI does appear to be stepping up its use of electronic surveillance and has conducted stings of state politicians. Bureau agents secretly taped Rep. William Jefferson, D-La., before finding $90,000 in his freezer during a raid last May. Cell phones were wiretapped for four months in an investigation of Rep. Curt Weldon, R-Pa., government sources say.

As long as this Congress has given the White House carte blanche to tap pretty much everyone without warrants or oversight, it's kind of delicious to think of the lawmakers squirming under the additional investigatory scrutiny, especially when so many of them apparently have reason to squirm.

"Also Bobby and Star I completely disagree with you on the roll that Howard Dean has played in this election. Due to Gerry-mandering of congressional districts people said that about 30 districts were even POSSIBLE to switch. Right now there are 50 plus that are in play. That is because Dean started his 50-state strategy two years ago."

Andy R., I heartily agree.

Dean's team has been consistently and progressivley involved in places past DNC chairmen wrote off for years.

Now many of those "sacrificial" districts are in play, but no one seems to want to acknowledge it was Dean's machine that, in great part, made it happen.

(With a little help from many R macaca moments and constantly failing Bush policies.)

Sometimes, I think Rummy, Cheney and W are working for the D's.

No JimD, you didn't insult me. I like setting the record straight. As you say, the CIA has managed not to leak so much. But Negrepointe is head of that now, and he's good at keeping secrets. It wasn't known for years that he had been a seminal figure in the murder of 35,000 innocent civilians in Nicaragua by US-funded Contras.

Btw, Ortega, the Sandinistra leader then, is poised to take power in Nicaragua again. I'm sure if the repugs hold onto power one of hte first things they'll do is throw together a few billion dollars to pay mercenaries and set them on the Nicaraguan people as a punishment for voting.

Interesting news...

'Iraq ambassador Khalilzad to quit.
The AP reports, "Zalmay Khalilzad, the plainspoken dealmaker and Republican insider who has won praise and criticism for attempts to broker Sunni political participation in Iraq's fragile government, is likely to quit his post as U.S. ambassador in Baghdad in the coming months, a senior Bush administration official said Monday."

Just to expand on my point above: most scenarios in which the Democrats pick up six seats in the Senate involve them losing no seats from their caucus and taking six seats from the Republicans.

That amounts to the Democrats going 18-for-18 in their current seats (including Vermont), and the Republicans only going 9-for-15 in their current seats. That would be a huge difference in electoral success.

KOZ -- I think you're busy spinning expectations my friend. You realy think 25 house seats and 4-6 Senate seat pick ups is a "victory" for the GOP? If so, I for one sure hope that the GOP keeps "winning" like that for the foreseeable future. Also, your 5% rule is a bit off. In the toss-ups you cite, the GOP candidate is the incumbant. Undecideds historically break for the challenger 2-1, which is why it is VERY bad when an incumbant is even below 50% on election day. There are no sure things in life, but having 30+ toss ups or worse is not a good place to be on November 6th.

BOBBY -- I understand your frustration, but why exactly do you think Pelosi and Dean are incompetent again? Yes, Dems have a favorable climate to work in this cycle but they've also been fighting against crazilly gerrymandered districts and a GOP that - while not governing well -raises HUGe sums of money and knows how to GOTV. Those kind of structural advantages matter, as KOZ is apt to point out, and will of course somewhat limits gains this year. But Dean, even if somewhat late, is actually working to address the rusty structural operations of the DNC all accross the country. Honestly, I thought you'd be on board with that....

Star;
"but the Dems don't play nearly dirty enough to win."

As cunning goes, you are absolutely right!

That is because so many of the general public don't think for themselves, and are swayed by trash rather than reason.

I sincerely hope "the public" in general changes its heart for the better before the Democratic party goes sleaxy, I'm proud of our adherence to a code of electoral integrity, even if it has cost us (not lost us) more than one election.

History will acknowledge this one day, and we will all be proud we did not sell our souls for worldly power.

And doesn't it srike everyone as odd that the Foley/Hastert/Boehner scandal doesn't resonate as much with these apparently maleable voters as R attack advertising does?

Seems to me, the Dems have the daily news on thier side, so they shouldn't have to trash the R's, the R's have done it quite sufficiently to themselves.

First off, KOZ I have a full plate of crow for you to eat on Wednesday. The Democrats are going to take the house with 40 plus seat switch. Your boy in Montana is done and so is Steele. Allen is toast in VA, and McCaskill has solidified her postion ahead of Talent. And Don't count your chicken's in Tennessee yet. The Democratic Machine in Memphis and Nashville is going to bring out the Vote big time. You can quote one poll all you want but everyone knows that about 1 out of every 5 polls is an outlier. Now we have polls coming in 3 a day for some of these races and you pick the one that is the outlier to make your point. Bring me poll averages if you want to say that Burns or Chafee will win.

Also Bobby and Star I completely disagree with you on the roll that Howard Dean has played in this election. Due to Gerry-mandering of congressional districts people said that about 30 districts were even POSSIBLE to switch. Right now there are 50 plus that are in play. That is because Dean started his 50-state strategy two years ago. You two sound like you have accepted that we aren't going to win tomorrow, but your wrong. All the polling shows a huge wave coming. Don't be suprised to see 7 senate seat switch to democrats on Wednesday.

DTM:

A month ago I told my husband that the Dems needed to focus on the House and try to pick up 1 or 2, if possible 3 Senates. In my eyes, at the time, that would have set them up very nicely for 2008. Of course, can't prove this because no tape of
it. . .(:!
So, like I said, I got a little greedy and just frustrated when the opportunity to gain control of the Senate seemed to present itself - and more than a little angry when I saw Cardin run such a bad campaign in a state he should have won easily - any gain only counts if nothing is lost and I still think this one is going to be way too close and it is a potential loss for the Dems. If the Dems don't gain the Senate, let's hope that John Paul Stevens can hang on at least a couple more years.

'The first point is that civil wars last longer than interstate wars. The average civil war since 1945 has lasted 10 years, and the median (or typical) one has lasted seven years. If we date the start of Iraq's civil war in 2004 or 2005, we probably have at least another five years of fighting.

If you believe that the United States can stick it out that long, you must consider what it would achieve by doing so. In three out of four cases since 1945, civil wars have ended when one side has crushed the other. If the United States were prepared to use its troops to force the victory of Shiites or Sunnis, perhaps it could hasten the war's end. But neither side makes for a palatable ally.

The United States could stay in Iraq in the hope that it may be one of the unusual civil wars that ends with a political compromise. This is possible, but the academics do not believe it to be likely. In his analysis of 50-plus civil wars, Collier finds that sectarian conflicts such as Iraq's are harder to end than ideological conflicts such as El Salvador's. Meanwhile Fearon emphasizes that wars in which each side is splintered are less susceptible to negotiated conclusions, because you can't trust the other side to stick to a deal if the other side consists of multiple uncoordinated death squads. Both Sunnis and Shiites in Iraq are divided among competing militias.

Moreover, wars that end in negotiation tend to do so only after the combatants have fought to a standstill. Iraq seems a long way from that: Leaders on both sides appear to believe that, once the Americans are out of the way, they can get what they want by fighting. It may be that neither side will give up this belief until it has been tested. This leads Fearon to the view that U.S. withdrawal is a precondition for the military test that in turn is a precondition for peace.

If Fearon is right, remaining in Iraq actually prolongs the carnage. But even if he is wrong, it's not clear that remaining in Iraq is justified. In the past three months, 241 U.S. troops have died; another five years implies the death of 4,820 Americans, more than were killed in the terrorist attacks of 2001. Meanwhile the U.S. involvement in Iraq distracts from other pressing foreign policy problems. The price of staying in Iraq is high, while the gains are uncertain.

"americans want to win the war and remain prosperous."

And how, pray tell, would one define victory in Iraq? Who has the answer to that big question?

I the pat answer remains "stay the course," stay WHAT course?

At least the generals and the rank and file military is aware of this stupidity.

Thier own experts call "victory" a sham, but Cheney and his ignorant minions keep pushing the reality envelope by talking about "victory in Iraq."

We lost that when we let Saddam's army slip away into the Baghdad night. Wew were too worrind about securing the Oil ministry and the oilk fields to fight a real war when we had the chance, Mission Accomplished was a scam of historic proportions, and all the dead civilians and Americans, and those countless victims left crippled, mentally or physically, are a sad testimony to that scam.

Amazing how these neocon wannabe ideologues continue to spout rhetoric thier own masters have long since abandoned.

But, like I said in the last post, ignorance is bliss.

JEP: (12:20 post)

But if the Democratic leadership doesn't get better and much more brilliant in its response to the Republicans, and in fact takes on a much more offensive approach, we will always be sitting on the sidelines. There is nothing wrong with criticizing the Dem leadership - do you like to keep making the same mistake over and over again? Wouldn't it be nice if someone pointed out to you what you were doing wrong so that you could make some progress?
It is very difficult to get others to change their ways of doing things - do you think the neo-con Repubs care one bit about how you think they should act? It is better to just get your guy in office than to try to change the neo-cons behavior - and unless the Dems can run some better campaigns on a regular basis, that won't happen, or at least it will be more of the same.
I AM on the DEMS team!

star11,

One obvious reason the Democrats have longer odds in the Senate is that only 1/3 of the Senate (33 Senators to be precise) is being elected this year.

In fact, it turns out that 2006 is a particularly unfavorable year for the Democrats to pick up seats, since although the Republicans hold the majority of the Senate overall, they hold only 15 of the 33 seats up for election this year.

So, the fact that the Democrats are even close to picking up all the seats they need to regain the Senate in just one election, and in an election in which the Republicans were defending relatively few seats, actually demonstrates how well the Senate campaign has gone for the Democrats.

Anyone ever remember Zouk saying ANYTHING bad about Bush, Cheney or Rumsfeld?

He CLEARLY hates Giuliani and McCain, but has he ever acknowledged fault in his OWN ideological masters?

Right or wrong, loyalty has its rewards.

And ignorance IS bliss.

I predict the VA race will also eventualy go to Allen. I didn't make predictions on the house races because there are so many that are labeled as toss up based on faulty polls. Remember the 5% rule I preached some time back which includes get-out-the-vote, incumbancy, dollars and sampling bias. If your challenger isn't ahead by more than 4, don't count on winning. the press has been all too ready to declare an even race will go D, but the fact is that that wave is now a ripple and in the 6th year, the Dems should have won over the Senate and 35 or more house seats. I will be surprised if you break 20. this is all because you have no leaders, no agenda and appear to be confused and mush-mouthed. americans want to win the war and remain prosperous. Dems don't seem to share this goal.

and that, folks, is why you are going to continue to lose again and again. Hillary has figured it out, why can't the rest of you?

"the Dems do find a way to self-destruct"

In the wake of their recent and pervasive sleazy ads, whatever bump the R's have gotten (real or imagined) should not be met with respect, just disdain and disgust.

You call ads like the Tennessee Cracker ad and these robocalling devices "Dems self-destructing?"

Is it possible there's a real moral difference between the way Dems and R's manage thier campaigns? Is it possible we Dems aren't so desperate for power that we are willing to sell our souls to beat the R's?

SO you are suggesting we (Dems) should cheat, lie, harrass and steal to win elections? How can Republican dirty tricks represent the Dems self-destruction?

I think this is what Karl has counted on all along, that when the dirt starts to fly, instead of leaning into it and showing some righteous unity, too many lackluster Dems blame thier own party.

JEP:

Sorry about the comments and perhaps you are right - maybe I should have written those things on Wed, not Mon - I am only motivated by frustration and, perhaps, greed at this point - greed meaning I want the Dems to win both the House and Senate and I see that the opportunity was there, but feel strongly that the Dems didn't react enough to the ads in TN from Corker - they even might have been positive ones, but a direct response would have been a great tactical move and it didn't happen (at least not that I have seen/heard). Same in VA with Allen's attacks on Webb's novels - he had been calling for a race on the issues and 10 days before the election he starts up with that? I saw a new ad on the same subject last night. How about Cardin coming straight out with an ad on Steele's record - or lack thereof? He did this very indirectly, but it could have been laid out point by point and it would have been more effective. I hate to say it - but the Dems don't play nearly dirty enough to win. Why do you think it is that we remember the Willie Horton and Daisy ads and from this election, the Playboy bunny ad?
Again - you have a point.

drindl,

I hope I didn't offend you, my wife says I have a compulsion to correct people over minor details.

The stories of how Gauss disrupted the CIA were widley publicized. One of the first things his replacment (General Hayden) did was to bring back a former senior CIA operations guy who quit in disgust over Gauss's policies. I have not seen anywhere near as much about the CIA. I guess CIA leaks more than the FBI does. That is supposedly one of the reasons that Bush installed a political hack there.

Bobby,

In response to your 10:37 am post, those are the same sorts of numbers people have been looking at all along. If the polls show that 10 seats currently held by Republicans are now leaning to the Democrats, and 20 seats currently held by Republicans are toss-ups, then the Democrats would have to get extremely unlucky not to get to a pickup of at least 15 seats.

In fact, if you flip a coin 20 times, your odds of getting heads (or tails) 5 or more times is something like 99.4%. But this is for illustration only, since unlike coin flips, political races in the same election are not independent.

Anyway, there may also be a lot more chances for Democratic pickups out there than are represented in this sample. And the more races where the Democrats have even a decent chance, the better their odds of getting to 15 one way or another.

By the way, in the inaugural Congressional Countdown on 10/24/06, it was 9 leans Dem, 21 tossup, and 5 leans GOP. So, things have actually gotten a bit more favorable for the Democrats over time.

Here is hoping you're right.

The post previous to yours just seem to be echoes of the democraticunderground, which touted no apology apology of the junior senator from Mass as a stroke of genius. I guess it is those same delusions that make them think they won in 2000 and 2004.

The two non-profits that paid for Rep. John Doolittle's (R-CA) trip to South Korea and Malaysia were run by Alexander Strategy Group, a lobbying firm operated by Ed Buckham, who is currently under investigation as part of the Jack Abramoff scandal.
[WaPo]

"when no else seems to be outraged,"

Most of us on the Dem side of this debate have openly criticized some of our "great leaders" for missing important cues. I have consistently suggested that the DCCC should have taken a much more geographically diverse approach.

But just because we are frustrated doesn't mean we are outraged with our own party, though, if you want to waste your outrage on the Dems (you own party) go right ahead, I'll save my outrage for the neocons.

JEP, I guess your advice doesn't apply equally to the President and the war. how confused are you?

kingofzouk:

Yes - but every race you cite is in the Senate, not the House. The Senate wasn't really in play until about a month, maybe 6 weeks, ago. The Dems will take the House and a new era will begin.
The truth of it is that in some ways, you are right, the Dems do find a way to self-destruct and this has already been discussed many times in more rational ways than you do.
As I stated before, there is so reason the Dems should not have taken both the House and the Senate - for some reason, it seems as though they were not able to capitalize on the Senate races as well as they did in the House, but the votes are not in and it remains to be seen and until then, let's play nice. It seems as though the only Senate race that is out of the reach of the Dems is the Tennessee race. I think Cardin will pull it out - but it will be much much closer than it should be - I have been saying that we needed to pay more attention to that race for a VERY long time.
I notice that you did not mention the Senate races in OH or PA - or VA for that matter - the first two are out of reach for the Repubs and you know it.
On Wed, or Thurs, or maybe even Fri, when the votes have been counted, and if the Repubs keep control of the Senate, then you can point fingers. Even if the Dems only gain a couple of seats in the Senate, I will agree with you, as much as it pains me, that the Dems ran a very campaign, because I have already said so and they should have been able to get control in both. Just wait a few more days to gloat.

JEP: exactly. KOZ would jump off the Brooklyn Bridge if his coach told him to.

In New Mexico yesterday, the state Democratic Party accused its GOP counterpart of calling Democratic voters and falsely telling them their polling place has changed.

This morning, the AP reports, the Dems are asking a judge to immediately bar the GOP from calling any registered Democratic voters in the state.

At least Zouk knows what team he's on...

"stunning record of incompetence in managing an election."

Now that is something we can all agree on for the Dem party- or should we start calling you the Whigs?

Bobby;

I don't know if you and Star were involved in team sports in your lifetime, but trashing your own quarterbacks on the eve of the big game seems, at best insensitive, and at worst, a subterfuge to those of us who understand how a tem works.

Please don't be offended, I mean none of this personally or vindictively, but if you held your peace until after the election, then went to work making the kind of changes your are right-on about, your motives might not seem questionable.

Now, at this vital point in this ever-so-important election, any Democratic Party naysayers seem, to those of us who consider this a team effort, very counter-productive, if not outright provocative.

How about a little pre-emptive unity?

I sure would make me feel better about your opinion if you weren't expressing it at such an important moment in history.

'Wherever you are, this can be your last-minute campaign effort: tell your undecided friends and co-workers about the Republicans' stunning record of incompetence in managing our national security. They don't know the truth, so lay it on 'em.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rj-eskow/before-they-vote-tell-yo_b_33352.html

your sanity, like your prospects are slipping, slipping away. but you will never admit that it is because of your lame-brained ideas and will somehow try to blame your losses on Karl Rove.

Burns has pulled even, as I predicted months ago. chaffee is now ahead. you can't even beat a Steele in an overwhelmingly Lib state. TN is a done deal for Rs. Maybe you'll salvage NJ despite your corruption.

When all those "toss-up" races break R tomorow the recriminations will start, but no mention of all the dumb ideas you (didn't) offer.

Ha ha ha. what fun to see you all self-destruct again. Despite all the blowhard press trying its best to hand it to you. too bad they didn't consult any actual voters.

Bobby Wightman-Cervantes:

If nothing else - at least it isn't my imagination and I am not the only one who sees the inadequacies in the Dem party as far as the campaigning and so forth. . .sometimes I think I am imagining it is is so
bad. . .and when no else seems to be outraged, then well, one wonders. . .

hope the fish was good this weekend. . .

JEP,

I have seen Chris Mathews go after these ads - he hit hard on that NY ad trying to make it look like the guy was hiring a prostitute -

But JEP, it s for our party leadership to pound the pavement to force the press to give us a counter voice on these ads, unfortunately Pelosi and Dean are hiding in caves thereby abandoning their leadership roles.

Bobby Wightman-Cervantes
www.balancingtheissues.com

PS;

...the fact that the these robocalls are deceptive isn't the illegal part; it is the call-back factor that puts them well into the phone harassment category, if they just "went away" after the first hang-up, it would probably be legal.

everyone out there who thinks the R's and thier shameful shenanigans are somwhow the result of rovian genius, needs to look up the word "cunning".

As long as people like Chris Cilliza and Chris Mathews nod so respecfully towards these sleazebags, and don't raise thier voices in concern every time a questionable tactic is attempted, the public will always be confused between the genius of masterful campaigning, and the cunning of deceptive and negative.

With all the power these "top pundits" wield as the information avatars to the general public, they should be watchdogs, not lapdogs.

Can anyone explain why, in a year when the GOP is struggling to finance all those house races, all their donors have maxed out to Lieberman (to the tune of about $20 million now)? It's awfully important to them that he retain this Senate seat. If that smells funny to you, you're not alone.

Can the GOP's fear tactics work again? This race is going to turn on turnout, to use the cliche. Moving past the cliche, who can deliver the turnout? Will the robo-calls scare enough GOP supporters to get them to the polls? Can that tactic overcome the anger driving the Dem supporters? Is the Dem 'anger' enough to turn the races?

Anecdotally, here in MN, the Hennepin County Board recently approved a new ballpark for the Twins - without a referendum on the issue, which is supposed to be required. People were pissed. But did that drive them to the polls in the primary? no. Will it drive them to the polls tomorrow? Not likely - I've seen zero coverage in local media on the issue. You have to work to even find out who the candidates are.

So, can either party inspire the voters enough to either drive this Democratic tidal wave or hold it off?

Excuse me, JimD, I keep getting my incompent partisan bureacratic hacks confused.

I do know someone, a 20-year vet, who left the bureau last year because he was so disgusted with how badly it was mismanaged. A clown show, he said. Doesn't seem to me like a 'clown show' is going to make us ''safer'...

star11

unfortunately we are chasing windmills - Pelosi and Bush drink from the same fountain of delution - she will think a small victory in the House will give her a mandate and then waste it on divisive politics in the same way Bush wasted it.

I hope come Wednesday morning that if the Dems pull off the House that someone among the Dems will say - you know what now we need real leadership - hopefully someone will step up to the plate and challenge Pelosi

Being the voice of dissent in the minority is not a qualification for being the head of the House.

Bobby Wightman-Cervantes
www.balalncingtheissues.com

I fully intend to write my Democratic House Member to encourage he support someone other than Pelosi - my only problem is he basically lives in Bejing running his family trade business - maybe someone knows Solomen Ortiz address in China

BWC

The meaning of "cunning" as I am
proposing, from "The" Wiktionary on "the" internet(s):

Noun;
Skill used in a conniving matter as to deceive.

Adjective; Sly; crafty; clever in surreptitious behaviour.

Better yet, the swedish word for cunning is "slug".

Karl the Slug and subterfuge team have left quite a slime trail, one that will be easy to follow when the subpoenaes are issued after this election...

Is there any doubt, if they are willing to break the law so egregiously wiuth these sleazy robocall campaigns, they are also willing to "FIX" the election?

drindl

Ineresting article on the FBI terrorist investigations. However, what did Porter Gauss have to do with that? He was the CIA Director. In fact, he was so incompetent at it that he was forced out by the administration. Considering the record of incompetence this administration has achieved, it is mind boggling to think about the level of incompetence required to be fired by Bush.

"On Ohio the GOP had to hire door-knockers for $12 an hour for their vaunted get-out-the-vote "machine."

So much for getting out the base through volunteers...

By the way, everyone out ther who thinks the R's and thier shameful shenanigans are somwhow the result of rovian genius, needs to look up the word "cunning", it is a much better description of this subterfuge than "genius."

Again, I submit, to those who trash the Dem leadership for not responding to this "R" cunning with comensurate "D" cunning: It doesn't take a genius to cheat.

On Ohio the GOP had to hire door-knockers for $12 an hour for their vaunted get-out-the-vote "machine."

Bush will headline a rally in Florida today but GOP candidate Crist has bowed out to campaign elsewhere.

In very red Grand Island, Nebraska the Bush rally couldn't fill the hall.

The fat lady is warming up....

http://whathappenedtomycountry.blogspot.com

Bobby Wightman-Cervantes:

I have to agree 100% with your post at 10:37 - the Dems are so very incompetant in running their campaigns and managing the spin - it is appalling and it is impossible to understand why it is tolerated. There is a Democratic Karl Rove out there - somewhere. . .we need to find that person immediately!!! There isn't an excuse out there for the election mismanagement across the board by the Dems - many, many opportunities go by unexploited and unanswered. The Dems should easily be able to win the House AND the Senate this cycle and yet they are only struggling to get the House.
I am, for one, outraged by the leadership, but unless there is a broader outcry, it doesn't matter. It will only be after all of their rights are taken away and the Constitution is literally thrown out that the people will realize what will have happened and then it will be too late.
The truly sad thing is that is doesn't require a degree in rocket science to figure it out, but I haven't ever seen so many stick their heads in the sand. The Republicans do not have a corner on the spin market or on fundraising, yet the Dems act as though they need a handbook on how to write a decent ad, much less capitalize on the nation's mood. Sorry - just a bit of a rant that I usually give to my husband - maybe he won't have to hear it
tonight. . .

Hey Drindl' if you think Bush is tanking in the polls now, take a look at his numbers before and after 9-11.

Seems as if a 28% approval rating got "FIXED" real quick right after 9-11.

QUI BONO?

9/27/01 70%
9/13/01 63%
9/9/01 26%
8/12/01 28%

How did the Dems go from the House being a done deal to only 12 seats leaning Dem and 20 being a toss - up ?

Every true Democrat should be livid with Pelosi and Dean for their total incompetence in the management of this campaign cycle -

Dems will not because as we all know any Democrat who cares enough to look objectively at our weaknesses is really a Republican plant.

If the Dems cannot solve their own problems with honest and frank discussion among themselves how will they ever run the Congress any better than the Republicans? they won't and the Republican will take back the House in 2008 and more importantly retain control of the White House

If the Dems can still win the House, the Dems need to accept the fact Pelosi cannot lead and find someone who can help them hold onto the House in 2008 and throw the Republicans out of the White House.

Unfortunately, I am now chasing windmills - the Dems will never self analyze and think about how they will hold on to the House in 2008

Bobby Wightman-Cervantes
www.balancingtheissues.com

Daily Update:

US House
Dems +20
25 toss ups (2 D, 23R)
Dems have adv in 8, Reps have adv in 13, 3 are dead even)
11/6 RMill Call: Dems gain 26

US Senate
Dems +3
4 toss ups (1 D, 3 R)
Dems have adv in 3 of 4
11/6 RMill call: Dems gain 5 seats

Governors
Dems +6
5 toss ups (1 D, 4 R)
Dems have adv in 3 of 5
11/6 RMill call: Dems gain 8

Just talked to one of the Congressional candidates I've worked for this season, and while I won't say who, I will say that local polls show him running even or ahead of his R opponent, while national polls show a much bigger gap.

And this race was never included in the DCCc's dole-out list, so what does that say about thier geographically-limited strategy?

Makes me wonder some of these national polls are also being used as tools of deception.

Fraoming the polls'

Frank Luntz was a master of word games, and he may be back heloing the R's fram thier poll questions.

I remember just after 9-11, how the first polls asked "Do you believe George W.Bush is doing a good job?" and for a couple weeks after the NYC disaster, his numbers hot way up.

Then, almost as if the public woke up, those numbers started dipping,ever so slightly, but still dipping.

So the next poll that cam out COMPLETELY DROPPED the name "Bush" and simply asked"Do you believe THE PRESIDENT is doing a good job?" and after 9-11, no American would speak against thier own nation's leader, despite the fact they might speak against Bush as a person.

SO THESE POLLS, AT THIS LATE STAGE OF THE GAME NEED TO BE SCRUTINIZED CLOSELY FOR THIER LANGUAGE AND FRAMING.

Which could quite clearly identify the differences between these polls' results.

Manipulation of the framing of poll questions is in and of itself a deceptive science, which the R's have obvsiously tapped in this late stage of the game.

The "Conquest" of Democracy?

How ironic.

In response to that handy dandy thread change, thought I'd see if this reposts.

I just tried to post a comment that Terry Nelson should be scrutinized and improisoned for taking all those "caller ID" phone numbers from Rove while Rove was in the White House, and for the first time in a long time, it did not post.

Just want to see if this makes it to the blog..

Nelson and Rove let someone else take the fall for them in NH, but if the Dems take even one house, that series of phone calls to and from the WH (all of them on the public record) could be the most important evidence we can uncover, if we really hold or democracy sacred.

How republican Porter Goss destroyed the FBI. Even the Justice Dept. under a reich hack like gonzalez won't prosecute these phony, trumped-up for fear-mongering cases:

'The Justice Department increasingly has refused to prosecute FBI cases targeting suspected terrorists over the past five years, according to private researchers who reviewed department records.

The report being released Monday by the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse at Syracuse University raises questions about the quality of the FBI's investigations.

Prosecutors declined to bring charges in 131 of 150, or 87 percent, of international terrorist case referrals from the FBI between October 2005 and June 2006, according to the report. The study was based on the most recent data available from the Justice Department's executive office for U.S. attorneys.

That number marks the peak of generally steady increases from the 2001 budget year, when prosecutors rejected 33 percent of such cases from the FBI, according to the report.

The data "raise troubling questions about the bureau's investigation of criminal matters involving individuals the government has identified as international terrorists," the report said.

It noted that prosecutions in traditional FBI investigations since 2001 including drug cases, white collar crimes and organized crimes have decreased while the number of agents and other employees has risen.

"So with more special agents, many more intelligence analysts, and many fewer prosecutions the question must be asked: What is the FBI doing?" the report said.'

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory?id=2630742

Source of calls:

Could be Conquest Communications Group, of Richmond, Va. according to several news stories (e.g. LINK one, LINK) based on FEC filings. Communications Group: 2812 Emerywood Parkway, Suite 103, Richmond, Virginia 23294. - PHONE (804) 358-0560 - FAX (804) 213-0797

Conquest managers:

Victor A. Gresham (founding partner)
David S. Johnson (founding partner) (used to work for NRCC)
Winfree W. Chewning, Jr. (SVP)
Broc B. Johnson (Sr. Account Rep.)

--Contact your Attorney General: list at NAAG.org. INCLUDES PARTY AFFILIATION.

More atrocity:

'An automated voice at the other end of the telephone line asks whether you believe that judges who "push homosexual marriage and create new rights like abortion and sodomy" should be controlled. If your reply is "yes," the voice lets you know that the Democratic candidate in the Senate race in Montana, Jon Tester, is not your man.

In Maryland, a similar question-and-answer sequence suggests that only the Republican Senate candidate would keep the words "under God" in the Pledge of Allegiance. In Tennessee, another paints the Democrat as wanting to give foreign terrorists "the same legal rights and privileges" as Americans.

Using a telemarketing tactic that is best known for steering consumers to buy products, the organizers of the political telephone calls say they have reached hundreds of thousands of homes in five states over the last several weeks in a push to win votes for Republicans. Democrats say the calls present a distorted picture.

The Ohio-based conservatives behind the new campaign, who include current and former Procter & Gamble managers, say the automated system can reach vast numbers of people at a fraction of the cost of traditional volunteer phone banks and is the most ambitious political use of the telemarketing technology ever undertaken'

A poll on CNN:

'Will the Saddam Hussein death sentence influence your vote in the midterm elections?'

I guess the media really does think we are THAT simple and childlike and easy to manipulate. But I guess many are, otherwise R's wouldn't have been in power.

'President Bush's popularity has dipped to 35 percent, according to a new CNN poll, with 41 percent of likely voters saying their disapproval of his performance will affect their vote in Tuesday's elections for control of Congress.

Sixty-one percent of the 1,008 adult Americans who responded to the Opinion Research Corp. poll said they disapproved of the way Bush is handling his job as president, according to the survey. The poll was conducted by telephone Friday through Sunday.

This finding represents a two-point decline in Bush's approval rating compared with a CNN poll conducted a week earlier.'

He should really just shut up and stay home. Everytime he opens his mouth, people like him less. Is he the least popular president ever, is that the lowest poll rating? Anybody know?