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List of Undeclared House Races
A handful of House races remain undecided. Only one of those races involves a seat currently held by Democrats -- GA-12. A GOP win there would slightly offset Democratic gains elsewhere
In Georgia's 12th, incumbent John Barrow (D) today claimed victory over former Rep. Max Burns (R). But the race has not been officially called. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported, "Elections officials said they could not confirm Barrow's claim that he had defeated ... Burns until problems with a computer server in Effingham County were resolved and the electronic ballots cast in the Effingham portion of the huge district could be processed. Technicians arrived shortly before noon to begin working on the computers."
Elsewhere across the country, the following GOP-held seats remain too close to call:
* CT-02: Current returns from the Associated Press show Democrat Joe Courtney with a 167-vote margin over Rep. Rob Simmons (R). The Hartford Courant reports, "An automatic recount is triggered when the margin of victory is less than half of 1 percent and is no more than 2,000 votes, a standard that state and local election officials say they believe will easily be met. ... If a recount is ordered, it must be completed within five business days after the election. Friday is a state holiday to recognize Veterans Day, pushing the deadline into early next week."
* LA-02: Rep. William Jefferson (D) was forced into a runoff against state Rep. Karen Carter (D). The runoff will be held on Dec. 9. Either way, the Democrats will continue to hold this seat.
* NM-01: Rep. Heather Wilson (R) holds a narrow lead over Attorney General Patricia Madrid (D), but elections officials are still counting some ballots. The Associated Press reports, "[S]till to be counted are 4,580 ballots in Bernalillo County that were kicked out of machines and must be hand-tallied, County Clerk Mary Herrera told reporters this morning. In addition, there are three precincts to be counted in Sandoval County and one in Santa Fe County. ... A wild card in the final unofficial count in Bernalillo County remains with 1,058 so-called 'in lieu of' ballots where a voter had requested but hadn't received an absentee ballot by mail and showed up at a polling place to vote, as well as 2,698 provisional ballots, which can be given out for a variety of reasons but are often disqualified."
* OH-02: Rep. Jean Schmidt (R) holds an apparently strong lead over Democrat Victoria Wulsin. But Wulsin says she will not concede until provisional ballots are counted. According to the Cincinnati Enquirer, "Provisional ballots are counted after they checked to make sure the voters were eligible. It wasn't clear how many such ballots there are."
OH-15: Rep. Deborah Pryce, a member of the GOP House leadership, holds a significant lead over Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy. But WBNS-TV reports that "Franklin County elections board numbers in the Pryce-Kilroy race are in question. The Associated Press is trying to contact elections officials to determine the correct results. ... Earlier in the day, Mary Jo Kilroy held a press conference saying she was not conceding and was still in the race."
TX-23: There will be a runoff in this race, long-delayed fallout from the Supreme Court decision that The Associated Press reported: "The race was thrown open this summer when the Supreme Court ruled that the district, redrawn by the Legislature in 2003, violated the Voting Rights Act by diluting minority votes. The boundaries were drawn again in August by a panel of judges, and the Hispanic voting-age population rose to 61 percent, from 51 percent in 2004. Five districts that were redrawn by the panel because of the high court's decision held special elections Tuesday. The 23rd was the only one to remain undecided. It appeared the incumbents in each of the other districts would get the more than 50 percent they needed to avoid a runoff."
* WA-08: The Democratic challenger in this race is not ready to concede. With 53 percent of the vote in, Rep. Dave Reichert (R) leads Darcy Burner (D) by nearly 3,000 votes. The Seattle Post-Intelligencer says its own analysis shows that Reichert will win reelection: "A P-I analysis of returns released early Wednesday shows that Reichert has nearly won his return to the U.S. House of Representatives. The former King County sheriff put up a substantial victory in Pierce County, while losing by a whisker in King County. According to the latest results, Reichert is 2,653 ahead. Because Reichert won both at the polls and in early absentee counting, Burner will most likely lose unless political lightning strikes among the votes remaining to be counted."
* WY-AL: Rep. Barbara Cubin (R) may have pulled off a very narrow win over Democrat Gary Trauner. Official results are pending, however. The Casper Star-Tribune reports that the "Associated Press still considered the race too close to call and was waiting for official results; results will become official after the State Canvassing Board meeds Nov. 15." Current tallies show Cubin ahead of Trauner by less than 1,000 votes.
UPDATE: A reader notes that NC-08 is also too close to call. Rep. Robin Hayes (R) has a razor-thin margin over Democrat Larry Kissell.
-- washingtonpost.com Editors
By washingtonpost.com Editors |
November 8, 2006; 5:15 PM ET
| Category:
House
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Get This Widget >>
Posted by: Ezetimibe | November 10, 2006 7:22 AM
Ezetimibe
Let's assume that President Bush somehow winds down the war in Iraq in the next two years; and
Let's also assume that the Democrats nominate Senator Clinton for President, while the Republicans nominate someone like Senator McCain or Governor Romney.
What states do you see the Democratic nominee carrying that Vice President Gore failed to carry in 2000--Florida? Ohio? Arkansas? Colorado?
Posted by: Mouse | November 9, 2006 1:34 PM
Ezetimibe,
The biggest problem a Republican outsider will have is that in the primaries, the social conservatives are the biggest group voters so unless the candidate walks their walk and talks their talk, its not likely the candidate will be sucessful. That's the problem McCain is having now. He is pandering to the right in order to get the nomination, but he will lose independents and fiscally conservative Democrats in the process.
Posted by: Repub | November 9, 2006 1:08 PM
Mouse,
Not being a Republican it is probably inappropriate for me to answer your question but I'm rarely ever appropriate.
If the conservatives embrace "conservatism" and smaller government, they're going to blow up like a 1974 Pinto. The work they have done to assemble a broad constituency was based on a bunch of incongruent issues.
Corporatists, religious right, safety moms, etc.
Having a coherent world view would probably not work for them. Their biggest weapon... fear is not aided by small government. They painted themselves into a corner.
I think it will take a successful outsider bid in 2008 to set the Republicans on a more successful course. Trying to get back to core conservative issues is not going to be easy. They need people who can disassociate themselves from the Bush era. I think they've got the guys to do it. Either Romney or McCain could position themselves apart from the rubber stamp congress and the Bush administration but they have limit their "base courting" or they'll get killed by whatever opinionless, centrist schmoe the Dems put forward.
Posted by: Ezetimibe | November 9, 2006 12:19 PM
Zouk,
What do you think that the Republican party should do now?
Should they move in a more libertarian/small government direction? socially conservative direction? strong defense/terrorism/larger government direction? move closer toward the center?
I have seen postings elsewhere from some conservatives who favor deeper involvement in Iraq and others who want to limit government. I don't see how these can be reconciled; do you?
Posted by: MOUSE | November 9, 2006 11:37 AM
A race that should have been too close to call, but was called is FL-13. The difference is 368 and there is an "undervote" of over 18,000 (people who voted other offices but did not for Congress). A flurry of legal activity is under way there.
Posted by: Dan | November 9, 2006 11:36 AM
I, too, have found it hard to understand the infatuation surrounding Steele, who lost by a much wider margin than this pre-election hype.
Then there's Menendez in NJ, a race that only existed in the spin of Republican strategists and columnists looking for something to write.
Chris has also been strangely silent about the wide margin of the Democrat in the Delay (TX 2) race. Pre-election, he kept hyping the Repub write-in candidate who had absolutely no chance of prevailing (for technical reasons) and everyone but Chris clearly understood was only a symbolic stand-in that the party was attempting to prep for an '08 comeback attempt.
Posted by: Henly, Texas | November 9, 2006 11:19 AM
Has anyone calculated the total votes cast for House Democratic candidates vs the total for all Republican candidates. Could be a proxy for a "popular" vote for the President. Might be interesting to compare it with the equivalent vote in 2004, Bush's actual vote in 2004, and the equivalent vote in 2002. Basis for an article?
Posted by: Kevin Burns | November 9, 2006 10:14 AM
Has anyone calculated the total votes cast for House Democratic candidates vs the total for all Republican candidates. Could be a proxy for a "popular" vote for the President. Might be interesting to compare it with the equivalent vote in 2004, Bush's actual vote in 2004, and the equivalent vote in 2002. Basis for an article?
Posted by: Kevin Burns | November 9, 2006 10:14 AM
Has anyone calculated the total votes cast for House Democratic candidates vs the total for all Republican candidates. Could be a proxy for a "popular" vote for the President. Might be interesting to compare it with the equivalent vote in 2004, Bush's actual vote in 2004, and the equivalent vote in 2002. Basis for an article?
Posted by: Kevin Burns | November 9, 2006 10:13 AM
Writepaul
I wasn't following the Florida Governor's race very closely. Please elaborate.
Posted by: Mouse | November 9, 2006 10:02 AM
Good morning, kingofzouk. You seem very subdued this morning. Off your wild oats?
Who's your daddy?
Posted by: Emperorofzouk | November 9, 2006 7:58 AM
Speaking of Gay Republican hypocrites ... Ladies and Gentleman, I give you the Governor-elect of Florida!
Posted by: Writepaul | November 8, 2006 9:54 PM
NC-8 (Hayes) is also undecided, according to AP this evening. Less than 500 vote lead.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/08/AR2006110800585.html
"Republican incumbents also were slightly ahead in four other states but those margins were too tight to declare a winner. They were GOP Reps. Heather Wilson in New Mexico, Robin Hayes in North Carolina, Dave Reichart in Washington and Barbara Cubin in Wyoming."
Posted by: bglavin | November 8, 2006 9:51 PM
*howling with laughter*
So....if all of the races break as they are without any flips (7 R, 3 D), then the new balance in the house would be 232 D, 203 R. Now *that* is funny.
Posted by: rook | November 8, 2006 9:39 PM
Your list of republican held house seats too close to call omits NY 25th Congressional District, where the Republican incumbent, James Walsh was ahead of the Democratic challenger, Dan Maffei, by about 4000 votes. However, there still remain somewhere about 13,000 paper ballots to be counted, and Maffei could well win this seat.
Posted by: hegave | November 8, 2006 7:05 PM
Your list of republican held house seats too close to call omits NY 25th Congressional District, where the Republican incumbent, James Walsh was ahead of the Democratic challenger, Dan Maffei, by about 4000 votes. However, there still remain somewhere about 13,000 paper ballots to be counted, and Maffei could well win this seat.
Posted by: Neal M Hoffman | November 8, 2006 7:04 PM
Your list of republican held house seats too close to call omits NY 25th Congressional District, where the Republican incumbent, James Walsh was ahead of the Democratic challenger, Dan Maffei, by about 4000 votes. However, there still remain somewhere about 13,000 paper ballots to be counted, and Maffei could well win this seat.
Posted by: Neal M Hoffman | November 8, 2006 7:04 PM
Chris: having watched Mehlman on CNN last night CC's agenda is very clear: to help build on the GOP's splendid legacy of hypocritical diversity. Their obviously gay RNC Chairman has promoted a rabidly anti-gay agenda for the past several years. Now it's time to make the 'tent' even bigger and replace him with an African-American to promote a rabidly racist agenda for the next several years. Makes perfect sense.
On a more serious (but only slightly) note, I was constantly amazed that Mehlman's head didn't explode as a result of the words that were coming out of his mouth.
Posted by: Judge C. Crater | November 8, 2006 5:56 PM
I was going to comment myself about Steele. What is it with him, Chris?
Posted by: drindl | November 8, 2006 5:51 PM
My mistake. The Republican candidate Lavigne came in 4th, behind Jefferson and two other Democrats.
http://projects.washingtonpost.com/elections/keyraces/83/
Thanks for picking up on that.
Posted by: Nor'Easter | November 8, 2006 5:49 PM
La. U.S. House District 2 (KEY RACE)
Candidate Votes %
William Jefferson * (D) 27,706 30
Karen Carter (D) 19,972 22
Derrick Shepherd (D) 16,621 18
Other 28,118 30
Key: * Incumbent | Winner
Precincts: 100% | Updated: 2:59 AM ET | Source: AP
More About This Race ยป
Posted by: kingofzouk | November 8, 2006 5:46 PM
Other than the Bonilla runoff in TX-23 (He was just under a majority at 49%) and the open Delay seat, all of the Texas incumbents won.
Obviously, DeLay's Gerrymandering formula was on target. Give Bonilla the runoff win and discount the open seat and DeLay batted 1.000 .
Posted by: Nor'Easter | November 8, 2006 5:46 PM
Anybody know who Jefferson will have to face in a runoff in LA-2?
The Republican candidate came in 3rd.
Posted by: Nor'Easter | November 8, 2006 5:41 PM
Since it is impossible to comment on the post where this is relevant, I will post this here. In what world is losing by 10% to Cardin falling just short? In Illinois the Republican candidate for Governor lost by 9% and we say that she got whupped. I'm not sure what Steele Cillizza, but this continual sucking up is probably the biggest negative on this blog. Could you please explain the obsession?
Posted by: Chris | November 8, 2006 5:34 PM
I've got a funny feeling about OH-15...
Posted by: JEP | November 8, 2006 5:34 PM
Schmidt's OH seat looks safe, unfortunatly. Why on Earth she was sent back to the House is beyond my understanding, but oh well. You can't win them all.
Posted by: panurge | November 8, 2006 3:18 PM
The comments to this entry are closed.
Repub,
I agree with you. They'll have to limit their "pandering". However, those two appear to have a big head start on other possible candidates. Maybe they can limit the brandishing of their Republican cred.
Mouse,
Even if Bush gets out of Iraq, he or policies that are linked to the administration are going to be facing ugly investigations for the remainder of his term. Unless the Dems screw it up and appear looking for problems where there aren't any, the Republican nominee will be running and hiding from the Bush administration and those linked with it. The state question is an intersting one. I wonder if Hillary will still have high negatives by spring 2008. If so, I suspect you're right that Rebuplicans could win again. Another candidate could probably win Colorado, Nevada, Ohio or Florida.