A good ad is a very bad ad if the candidate loses. It's the secret of political psychology.

A good ad is a very bad ad if the candidate loses. It's the secret of political psychology.

You may have noticed that at least half of the candidates who ran the commercials you chose as the best of 2006 -- lost. (Johnson, Ford, Steele, Lamont, and Grant). It would appear that a good ad ain't everything.

Voter turnout in Northern Virgnia is very heavy. In my precinct, moderately blue, with 3000+ registered voters, my voter permit number was 500+ at 10:40am. There were at least 100 folks behind me when I left, and more on the way. Many people I've talked to couldn't wait in line this morning because of the high volume and are planning to vote after work. We are predicting a 60%+ turnout here, good news for Democrats. The Democratic Precinct worker was Veteran's For Webb campaign worker. He indicated there was a sizable number of like minded vet's who are thouroughly disgusted with the Bush WH's handling of Iraq. The Republican campaign worker was not enthusiastic about their chances.

Vote Early, Vote Often

Meant, 'anyway' if this comment section goes...

Hey nor-Easter - I don't make predictions... I leave that to others. There are too many variables at this point for me to feel comfortable. I went to sleep thinking Kerry had won last election and when I woke up and found it was bush -- I threw up. Just literally made me physically ill. So I don't ever want to call any election again.

Made calls for D John Hall [NY19] until last night -- a lot of voter fatigue about calls--we found out yesterday R Sue Kelly {John's opponent] was using those harassment robocalls pretending to be from Dems, and just calling people over and over and over. I'm not surprised or even disappointed--we know that's just who they are--liars and cheaters.

What really surprised me was talking to people [both parties] who hadn't made their minds, or didn't know who the candidates were [one is a 5 term incumbent]. I wanted to shake them and say well just when were you going to take 5 minutes to care about the future of your country? When you get into the voting booth? Or will you just not bother? It's a tragedy to me.

Anyway, everyone go out and vote! I felt so grateful that we still have our old lever machines. I loooooove them!

I understand some say you have to email comments on The Fix now --which is a recipe for censorship. Trust me, most of your comments will never appear. The WaPo has done that before, when they started to get more comments from Dems than from R's. The press really doesn't want to heaar from us much, do they? I think they actually do have battered wife syndrome and prefer being bashed by rightwing freaks who hate their very existence.

Anyone is this comment section goes, I will never read the Post again --online or print -- and I urge my fellow junkies to also get their fix elsewhere. There's a lotta good sites out there -- I refuse to be neutered.

Andy R;

Its the same her in Kansas, right here where I live (small central-Kansas tourist town) they were getting them in a one or two a minute, which is way more than usual, and they were Dems predominantly, and they were very excited.

That is a good sign in Kansas that the formerly "Dem-moralized" Democrats arround here feel more confident that thier vote might just make a difference.

I would guess Gov. Sebelius will win bigger that anyone ever imagined, and they imagined a big win. Also, there is a preponderance of evidence that Bush's visit to help Jim Ryun beat Nancy Boyda may have backfired on them, it got the brainwashed base all foamed-up but along with the anti-Boyda robocalls.

It would appear the Kansas R's aren't faring well at the hands of the RNC, with their sleazy phone tactics and unpopular president.

They may have fired-up the already-obsessed cultists to a higher fever pitch, but that will not bring new voters in, most of these R's are so offensive to those around them, especially to those who don't agree with them, their influence can only exacerbate the R's lousy chances to hold onto Ryun's seat.

on CNN:

Apparently the Keane campaign is accusing the Menendez campaign of padlocking the Keane campaign headquarters. . .Menendez campaign claims the Keane campaign is trying to pull a fast one. . .

"delaying voters in Indiana, Ohio and Florida..."

Already the evidence is in.

Why these three states, particularly?

Can I get a group "DUH!"

Mikepcfl:

I voted for O'Malley this morning, but my heart won't break if Ehrlich wins. My only concern is if he wins, as I read in a much earlier post, he decides to run for Mulkowski's seat in two years. I have seen O'Malley twice in the last few days and he is really quite a gifted speaker - and Brown - wow - watch out for this guy! As I think it is good to have some balance of power, Ehrlich is a ok guy.

The trends have shown this movement, but I think it will surprise many people that Ehrlich will retain the Maryland governorship. He is a very moderate Republican and I think the Washington Post endorsement helped sway some independent voters.

Won't it be amazing if the voters turn out today to kick out the R's in many places, based on MORAL ISSUES like sleazy election burnout and Republican corrutpion and perversion??

Now there's some REAL moral issues worth voting for.

Anyone else have any surprises that are supposedly locked-in that you think might go the other way?

Three races you missed Rmill include two in Iowa (Spencer and Loebsack) and one in Kansas (Boyda), and if per chance these seats do go over to the Dems, so will some others on the same cusp, it will hit the 42 mark I predicted and maybe even pass it.

Election Day
Final analysis
(includes overnights as of 9:30 AM)

US House
Rep seats likely Dem (last two weeks avg. D+8 pts or more)
AZ 8D+13.5, CO 7D+11.67, IN 8 D+13.34, NY 24D+11, NY 25 D+8.5, NY 29 D+11.5, NC 11 D+8.25, OH 15 D+12, OH 18 D+12.67, PA 7 D+8, PA 10D+9, TX 22 D+8 TOTAL-12 seats

Rep seats lean Dem (last two weeks avg. D+4-7)
CT 5D+5, FL 13D+7, FL 16D+5.67, FL 22D+5.5, IN 2D+6.33, IA 1D+5, NH 2D+5.2, NM 1D+5, NY 20D+7, PA 6D+5 TOTAL-10 seats

Dem seats lean Dem
IL 8D+4 TOTAL- 1

Rep seats lean Rep
AZ 1R+4, CA 4R+7, CO 5R+7, MN 6R+6, NV 3R+7, NH 1R+6.75, OH 12 R+5, PA 4R+4, VA 10R+5, WY atlrgR+5.5

Toss Ups
Rep seats with Dem adv
CA 11D+2, CO 4D+1, ID 1D+1, IL 6D+3.67, IN 9D+2.67, KY 3D+3.25, NY 19D+1, OH 1D+2, WI 8D+3 TOTAL- 9 seats

Dem seats with Dem adv
GA 12D+3 (This is Barrow not Marshall as CC indicated in his analysis), IN 7 D+1 TOTAL-2 seats

Rep seats with Rep adv
FL 24R+2,IA 2R+1, MN 1R+2, NJ 7 R+2.5, NY 3 R+1, NY 26R+2.5, NC 8R+3.34, OH 2R+1.75, PA 8R+3.67, VA 2R+1.14, WA 8R+1.33 TOTAL- 11 seats

Rep seats Even or under 1%
AZ 5R+0.5, CT 2D+0.67, CT 4D+0.67, IL 10 Even, KY 4D+0.33, NE 2 Even TOTAL- 6 seats

Special note: LA-2 Rep Jefferson will likely make it through to a December run-off. IMO, he will lose his seat but no Rep candidate will make the run-off and the seat will stay Dem.

RMill Election Day Call: Dems win 33 seats; 1 incumbent loses but stays Dem

US Senate
Rep seats going Solid Dem (10+ pts. last week avg)
OH Brown(D)+11.34, PA Casey Jr.(D)+9.67 TOTAL- 2 seats

Rep seats lean Dem (+5-9 pts avg past week)
RI Whitehouse(D)+5.34 TOTAL- 1

Dem seats lean Dem
NJ Menendez (D)+7.11 TOTAL- 1

Rep toss ups (1-4 pts either way)
MO McCaskill(D)+2.75, MT Tester(D)+3.67, Webb(D)+1.4 TOTAL- 3
MO and VA trending up towards lean Dem, MT trending downward towards lean R

Dem toss up
MD Cardin(D)+3.2 trending down towards lean Rep

RMill Election Day call: Dems +6

Governors
Dems +5 with 6 toss ups
AKR+3, IDD+2, IAD+3.4, MDD+1.25, MND+1.1, NVR+2.77

MD trending downward towards lean Rep
IA trending up towards lean Dem
MN and MD nearly a statistical dead heat

Nor'easter

I am not much of a prognosticator. I do think the Republicans have picked up some support in the last few days, probably from usually Republican voters resigning themselves to voting against the Democrats (as opposed to for the Republicans). However, I do think the Dems will take the House with 8-12 seats to spare. I do not think the Dems will quite manage to take the Senate, unfortunately. I see Montana, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Rhode Island switching to Democrats. I think Tennessee has slipped out of reach for the Democrats, which is very sad because I think Harold Ford could be a real national star. I am not sure about Missouri and I have a hunch, and that is all it is, that Webb will win in Virginia. I do not believe the Republicans will capture a single Democratic seat. It will all come down to turnout - especially African-American turnout.

Andy,

Here in Lansing MI I went to the polls (I am in a very, very Blue precinct) early and they were already very busy. The bad news for Democrats was that the Eastern/blue side of the state is having rain, while the Western/red side was having none. Still, it didn't look like it had an effect on turnout here.

Since CC won't start a new thread I will comment on his changes that he talked about there. First off, how is Tennessee now a lean's republican? The poll averages are within the margin of error AND the weather is gonna be crappy in the eastern part of the state all day. Memphis should clear up by midday meaning a strong turnout in Memphis which will help Ford big time. Also at my polling place and their was a line 30 people deep. Now I live in Cambridge MA which is about the most liberal place on the planet, but it is the most people I have ever seen there at one time. Also I asked one of the poll workers and she said people were waiting when they opened the doors which she had never seen. That is good sign for democrats, our base is pumped and ready to take these crooks out of office.

No mention of the clever AARP ads? Sure they weren't for a candidate but the "Don't Vote" series especially the guy singing, "Come have some pie with me." were cute.

Zathras is right. You need to put a thread on the last post CC.

I noticed that on Chris's most recent posting that comments have to be emailed in. I hope that is not the new rule here.

Wow Chris
So I guess if the RNC had run an ad that had a white woman running down the street screaming, with a black man chasing her and then had a voiceover that said "THIS is what will happen if you elect Harold Ford", so long as it was "effective", you'd praise it, while saying that whether it was morally right was for 'others' to decide.

Yeah, I guess when you've shown yourself to be amoral, you have no right to judge.

BTW, if Ford happens to win today, does THAT get the ad off your list?

JEP said:

"Just figured something out...

A lot of the Kerry bashing has lkittle to do with this election, they took him out of the Presidential loop once and for all, like they did to Allen and the MSM in general did to Dean.

Allen might say Kerry's been sidelined in the president's game."

And I'd say GOOD. Kerry is a recipe for Turdblossom Soup. Didn't they already beat this guy? Can we please have:

1. Fresh ideas to go with fresh faces

2. Somebody who half the country doesn't automatically detest(that's you Hill)

3. Somebody who can help geographically(that's the Edwards problem...who couldn't even carry his home state)

4. Somebody with Executive experience or alternatively with Military/Foreign Policy credentials. Both would be better.

I have alot more requirements but could vote for somebody that matches these.Anybody else ready to start in on 08 or are we still stoked by 06? Speaking of which...Don't know why the doom and gloom from some Dems. I follow 3 major political analysts:Sabato,Cook, and Rothenberg. Sabato and Rothenberg, as of this morning, are still predicting both the House and Senate to flip to the Dems. Cook says the House for sure and a possible 4-6 in the Senate. Also, one of the three did some checking on this notion of the generic national trend and noted that of the last 7 polls, the lower "pro-Dem" numbers were followed by 3 polls showing improvement for Dems on the generic ballot. Strange how the media seemed to focus on those lower numbers and skip the higher numbers that followed.

Jay said:

"What liberal, Politically Correct nonsense. Ford admitted to being at the Playboy party. The ad was inspired and funny, and equal-opportunity in its skewering of Rep. Harold "I don't make any apologies for liking football and women" Ford." responding to a post about the Playboy add being racist.

Leave it to a Republican(presumedly, or at least NOT a Dem) to claim that being anti-racist is Politically Correct. Uh, yes IT IS politically correct. It's also socially correct, morally correct, and religiously correct. You have problems with people who are anti-racist? Wonder what that says about you....

As for it being liberal...I'm amazed that you'd admit that being anti-racist is a liberal characteristic(presumably comparing it to conservative characteristics being racist?).

I'm quite proud of my "liberal" social leanings, thanks. Liberal-the philosophy of inclusion.

"I usually defend Chris, but JEP is absolutely right. There's a big difference between being "neutral" and being wilfully blind to racism. That ad was repugnant and everyone associated with it should be ashamed."

What liberal, Politically Correct nonsense. Ford admitted to being at the Playboy party. The ad was inspired and funny, and equal-opportunity in its skewering of Rep. Harold "I don't make any apologies for liking football and women" Ford.

ELECTION ALARM!! SPREAD THE WORD!!

For uncensored news please bookmark:

otherside123.blogspot.com
http://www.waynemadsenreport.com/
www.wsws.org
www.takingaim.info

HOW THEY STOLE THE MID-TERM ELECTION

by Greg Palast
for The Guardian (UK), Comment
Monday November 6, 2006

Here's how the 2006 mid-term election was stolen.

Note the past tense. And I'm not kidding.

And shoot me for saying this, but it won't be stolen by jerking with the touch-screen machines (though they'll do their nasty part). While progressives panic over the viral spread of suspect computer black boxes, the Karl Rove-bots have been tunneling into the vote vaults through entirely different means.

For six years now, our investigations team, at first on assignment for BBC TV and the Guardian, has been digging into the nitty-gritty of the gaming of US elections. We've found that November 7, 2006 is a day that will live in infamy. Four and a half million votes have been shoplifted. Here's how they'll do it, in three easy steps:

Theft #1: Registrations gone with the wind.

On January 1, 2006, while America slept off New Year's Eve hangovers, a new federal law crept out of the swamps that has devoured 1.9 million votes, overwhelmingly those of African-Americans and Hispanics. The vote-snatching statute is a cankerous codicil slipped into the 2002 Help America Vote Act -- strategically timed to go into effect in this mid-term year. It requires every state to reject new would-be voters whose identity can't be verified against a state verification database.

Sounds arcane and not too threatening. But look at the numbers and you won't feel so fine. About 24.3 million Americans attempt to register or re-register each year. The New York University Law School's Brennan Center told me that, under the new law, Republican Secretaries of State began the year by blocking about one in three new voters.

How? To begin with, Mr. Bush's Social Security Administration has failed to verify 47% of registrants. After appeals and new attempts to register, US Elections Assistance Agency statistics indicate 1.9 million would-be voters will still find themselves barred from the ballot on Tuesday.

But don't worry: those holding passports from their ski vacations to Switzerland are doing just fine. And that's the point. It's not the number of voters rejected, it's their color. For example, California's Republican Secretary of State Bruce McPherson figured out how to block 40% of registrants, mostly Hispanics. In a rare counter-move, Los Angeles, with a Hispanic mayor, contacted these citizens, "verified" them and got almost every single one back on the rolls. But throughout the rest of the West, new Hispanics remain victims of the "José Crow" treatment.

In hotly contested Ohio, Kenneth Blackwell, Secretary of State and the Republican's candidate for Governor, remains voter-rejection champ -- partly by keeping the rejection criteria a complete secret.

Theft #2: Turned Away - the ID game

A legion of pimple-faced Republicans with Blackberries loaded with lists of new voters is assigned to challenge citizens in heavily Black and Hispanic(i.e. Democratic) precincts to demand photo ID that perfectly matches registration data.

Sounds benign, but it's not. The federal HAVA law and complex new ID requirements in states like New Mexico will easily allow the GOP squads to triple the number of voters turned away. Rather than deny using these voter suppression tactics, Republican spokesmen are claiming they are "protecting the integrity of the vote."

I've heard that before. In 2004, we got our hands on fifty confidential internal memos from the files of the Republican National Committee. Attached to these were some pretty strange spreadsheets. They called them "caging lists" -- and it wasn't about zoo feeding times. They were lists (70,000 for Florida alone) of new Black and Jewish voters -- a very Democratic demographic -- to challenge on Election Day. The GOP did so with a vengeance: In 2004, for the first time in half a century, more than 3.5 million voters were challenged on Election Day. Worse, nearly half lost their vote: 300,000 were turned away for wrong ID; 1.1 million were allowed a "provisional" ballot -- which was then simply tossed out.

Tomorrow, new federal ID requirements and a dozen new state show-me-your-ID laws will permit the GOP challenge campaign to triple their 300,000 record to nearly one million voters blocked.

Theft #3: Votes Spoiled Rotten

The nasty little secret of US elections is that three million ballots are cast in national elections but not counted -- 3,600,380 not counted in 2004 according to US Election Commission stats. These are votes lost because a punch card didn't punch (its chad got "hung"), a stray mark voided a paper ballot and other machinery glitches.

Officials call it "spoilage." I call it, "inaugurating Republicans." Why? According to statisticians working with the US Civil Rights Commission, the chance your vote will "spoil" this way is 900% higher for Black folk and 500% higher for Hispanics than for white voters. When we do the arithmetic, we find that well over half of all votes spoiled or "blank" are cast by voters of color. On balance, this spoilage game produces a million-vote edge for the GOP.

That's where the Black Boxes come into play. Forget about Karl Rove messing with the software to change your vote. Rather, the big losses occur when computers crash, fail to start or simply don't respond to your touch. They are the new spoilage machines of choice with, statistically, the same racial bias as the old vote-snatching lever machines. (Funny, but paper ballots with in-precinct scanners don't go rotten on Black voters. Maybe that's why Republican Secretaries of State have installed so few of them.)

So Let's Add it Up

Two million legitimate voters will be turned away because of wrongly rejected or purged registrations.

Add another one million voters challenged and turned away for "improper ID."

Then add yet another million for Democratic votes "spoiled" by busted black boxes and by bad ballots.

And let's not forget to include the one million "provisional" ballots which will never get counted. Based on the experience of 2004, we know that, overwhelmingly, minority voters are the ones shunted to these baloney ballots.

And there's one more group of votes that won't be counted: absentee ballots challenged and discarded. Elections Assistance Agency data tell us a half million of these absentee votes will go down the drain.

Driving this massive suppression of the vote are sophisticated challenge operations. And here I must note that the Democrats have no national challenge campaign. That's morally laudable; electorally suicidal.

Add it all up -- all those Democratic-leaning votes rejected, barred and spoiled -- and the Republican Party begins Election Day with a 4.5 million-vote thumb on the vote-tally scale.

So, what are you going to do about it? May I suggest you ... steal back your vote.

It's true you can't win with 51% of the vote anymore. So just get over it. The regime's sneak attack via vote suppression will only net them 4.5 million votes, about 5% of the total. You should be able to beat that blindfolded. If you can't get 55%, then you're just a bunch of crybaby pussycats who don't deserve to win back America.

********
Greg Palast is the author of the New York Times bestseller, "ARMED MADHOUSE."

For specific advice on How to Steal Back Your Vote, go to http://www.gregpalast.com/steal-back-your-vote

Catch Greg Palast on Election Night on the new Mike Malloy Show on many Air America affiliates.

The Johnson ad also lies about Chris Murphy's position. Assuming that Murphy has the standard liberal objection to Bush's program, he does not think that the government should wait around for a warrant while terrorists are making phone calls. He thinks that they should follow the law, the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, which allows the government to intercept the call immediately, but requires that they file paperwork within the next 72 hours so that a judge can verify that they're only eavesdropping on suspected terrorists.

Some really lousy choices here, as well as several mediocre ads.

Nancy Johnson's ad is terrible from several perspectives. If the decisive factor in these is effectiveness, then this one belongs in the "worst-ad" bin. Besides, it's desperately misleading about the issue, and falsifies her opponent's position. Laughably. How is this a good ad?

The Lamont ad is just mediocre. Who the hell can't morph one face into another? Would have been much better with a Conan O'Brian offspring photo.

Michael Steele's puppy? Republicans may never tire of politicians hanging onto their doggies, but the rest of us just laugh.

Heather Wilson, showing her opponent short of breath? Whatever.

And Corker's blatantly racist ad? Leave it up to others to decide? Others have already slapped you down for this, so I won't say more.

Altogether, an underwhelming and somewhat repulsive list.

If you're looking for repulsive, there's a heck of a nasty ad being aired by Steve Chabott accusing his opponent of wanting to put Section-8 housing "in your neighborhood" (picture of police at a murder scene). Maybe it belongs on the alternate list?

Nevada congressional candidate Jill Derby's ads were great, absolutely great.

Just figured something out...

A lot of the Kerry bashing has lkittle to do with this election, they took him out of the Presidential loop once and for all, like they did to Allen and the MSM in general did to Dean.

Allen might say Kerry's been sidelined in the president's game.

Charlie;

"Inside baseball" has nothing to do with the future of Democracy, and trivializes something that should be held much more sacred. Franklin would call you a bore.

Chris, look at all your posts above, you could have used a different one instead of the race baiting ad and later had a "hall of shame" special, and in that "Hall of shame" post tout this sleazy ad for its effectiveness.

Instead you chose to put it into a "10 Best" list and trivialize the sleaze factor.

Baseball's a great place for pastimes, but we're talking about the quality of our children's and granchildren's political future.

Its bad enough they have to see this kind of trash on mainstream TV.

What on Earth do the Tennessee fundamentalists and evangelicals think of thier kids having to watch this tripe? Does the racial threat simply overwhelm their Christian morals?

If you have any doubts as to its racist and sexist overtones, just switch the roles of the black girl and the white girl, and the ad just wouldn't work.

Watch it again, and you will see what I mean.

I don't keep up with politics, but there were some good ads here, potentially qualified for Super Bowl Sunday.

www.gosyro.com

Tx/Mi Zathras;

That's pretty cool, you giving the "new" "old" Zathras a moniuker qualifier by adding the Tx/Mi prefix.

I wish all our politicians were that selfless.

The Corker campaign's "Playboy Bunny" ad is knuckle-dragging racist filth. Period. I hope if it helps him into the Senate that he'll never live it down. But don't holler at The Fix for not denouncing it. The Fix is "Inside Baseball" for political junkies. Plenty of other places can make moral and ethical judgments. The Fix is about The Game. And it's fun. Keep it up, Chris.

Here's another vote for "Heads Up," at least as an honorable mention.

How can people leave off the Mike Fitzpatrick ad showing Patrick Murphy's Hardball appearance? That was very effective, and is part of the reason Fitzpatrick will probably be the only Philly area (I don't count Dent in that) left in 2 days.

I know Jon Tester already made the list, but his Truck ad is pretty good. The one where he says he's driving across MT in his pickup truck, and special interests will never hitch a ride in his truck.

If Jon Tester doesn't win this race, I don't know anymore. I've always had faith that people will do the right thing, and it is so clear in this race that Tester is simply the better public servant. He's a good man, and I'm pulling for him tomorrow.

Nancy Johnson's ad was a big mistake. her image is that of grandmotherly concern, and it took a big hit when one of the first ads to run changed her from Nice Nancy to Nasty Nancy.

It also put her squarely in line with the DC GOP crowd when her biggest problem already was looking out of touch with her constituents on Medicare Part D ("when's the last time she worried about insurance"?). The ad made her look as if she had "gone native" and become "one of them", radical and too far right. It was a really creepy ad for CT.

Overall, bad move.

Since Eliot Spitzer will in all likelihood win the race for New York's gubernatorial, you won't see much of his commercials. But they're brilliantly done and absolutely powerful wen you see them on his website.

I'll take +39 seats in the House, +6 in the Senate. Lieberman extracts his revenge and gets to have his pick of chairmenships.

Tx/Mi Zathras

Corker ad Racist? How about this one?

"I'm Renee Mullins, James Byrd's daughter.
On June 7, 1998 in Texas my father was killed. He was beaten, chained, and then dragged 3 miles to his death, all because he was black.

So when Governor George W. Bush refused to support hate-crime legislation, it was like my father was killed all over again.

Call Governor George W. Bush and tell him to support hate-crime legislation.

We won't be dragged away from our future. "

The word has been used so much it no longer has any meaning.

Thanks for the mention of our "Republicans on Sali" ad, which we are pretty sure is the first ad ever to use the term "frickin."

We're also very pleased with Larry's ad, "Truth," which was directed by Idaho-based filmmaker Michael Hoffman ("A Midsummer Night's Dream," "One Fine Day," "Soapdish," etc.) This one is Larry Grant's final pitch in the face of more than a million dollars' worth of Republican attacks.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uBAyX1Uy-zA&eurl=

42 seats int the House for the Dems,
and now I think it will be 7 (yes, seven!) in the Senate...

Garrison Keilor's here live tonight, going to see his talk at the college...

Good luck and a have good vote, tomorrow.

See you in the next bloglife.

JEP

Check out independent Christy Mihos' ad - Mass gov race - "Heads Up." It's a cartoon featuring various officials sticking their heads up their asses, in response to Mihos' questions regarding the Big Dig. Certainly got everyone talking about his campaign (even if he doesn't stand a chance).
http://www.christy2006.com/pages/multimedia.cfm

Harold Ford himself didn't think the ad was racist, just stupid. And what were they supposed to do, have a black Playboy bunny (which are rarer than black Republicans)? Playboy bunnies are stereotypically blond, and the ad was intended to make Ford look like a playboy out of touch with TN values by attending parties at Hef's.

The Corker ad is indeed racist... what bothers me more from afar is that the telephone call accusation still has legs. From what I've seen of Ford, he's the kind of politician we need more of. I hope he's able to eventually shake this stupid accusation.

Chris - thanks for pulling the links together. Steele's and Richardson's ads were wonderful. And, I can' t believe Madrid and Sali are still ahead. Yikes!

OtherZathras-

I've never been in this position before. However, since I've been posting for here longer and more regularly than you, I think it is you that should try using another moniker. This is the first I've seen you post, and so I definitely not trying to impersonate you with a moniker I have used for over 10 years.

There is also nothing wrong with "y'all." ;)) Being from Texas (although now living in Michigan) it is a standard part of my parlance.

Drindl, JEP, bhoomes (I suspect he's reading), VivaBush (him too), TruthHunter, JimD, Sandwich, Bobby C-W, Bsimon, Zippy, Irish Curse, RNC Troll, even PatheticPoster, etc...

- Predictions?

The first thing I'd observe is that clever, effective ads have been a small fraction of all the campaign ads run this year. I can't count the number of ads I've heard this year that sound as if they were made by dopes who think voters are also dopes. Like bad commercials for any other product, the only way they can be effective is by being repeated endlessly. Someone aware that many consultants get paid more the more often the commercials they produce are run might be tempted to believe that some of them make bad commercials deliberately.

The second thing I'd observe is that the Corker ad Chris Cillizza praises seems undeniably racist. In the world of campaign consultants that may not matter if an add moves the poll numbers, but effectiveness in stirring up old feelings against voting for a man because he is black is not something the rest of us should be called on to admire.

Finally, I've observed on this thread and occasionally elsewhere that another poster has taken to using the cybernym "Zathras." There is no law against this, and no reason for me to think that he adopted a moniker I've used for years in various places just to impersonate me. In fairness, also, I have to say that his posts otherwise reflect no discredit on him or on this board.

Still, it might be best if he chose another cybernym, to avoid confusion among the great majority of readers unaware, for example, that being from Wisconsin I would never use let alone write a vulgar expression like "y'all."

Left out a quote mark, after 'rallly' in the 3rd graf from the bottom...

From an old Letterman Top Ten (with minor editing)

10. Practice voting by flicking light switch on and off.

9. Always know what a candidate's stand is on Sunday beer sales.

8. If you repeat the name "DeLay" 100 times out loud, it starts to sound real funny.

7. We want a President who stands up to Iran or Iraq or whoever has the bearded guy.

6. As a gag, close curtain in booth and shout "Hey who used all the hot water?"

5. Voting is important, but nobody would blame you if you stayed home to watch "Hardbodies" on cable again.

4. If a station preempts wrestling -- call and complain.

3. Introduce yourself in bars as Albert Gore. Who would know?

2. President Stallone: it won't happen unless we make it happen. [Or Governor Friedman. Why Not!]

1. Remember: your vote counts as much as people who do know who the candidates are!

So Karl Rove publicly mocked the R candidate, because he was hiding from angry toddler bushboy? My, my, aren't we getting testy:

'PENSACOLA, Florida (AP) -- The White House did not hide its irritation Monday at Florida GOP gubernatorial candidate Charlie Crist for ducking President Bush at a campaign rally in the Republican-friendly Panhandle.

Crist said he considered the Pensacola area so firmly in his camp that it made more sense to campaign elsewhere in the state as the race to replace outgoing Gov. Jeb Bush tightened.

On a tarmac in Texas where the president boarded Air Force One for the trip east, Bush political strategist Karl Rove mockingly questioned what kind of alternate rally Crist could put together that would rival the expected 10,000-person crowd that Bush was expected to draw at the Pensacola Civic Center.

The White House already had distributed schedules saying Crist would introduce Bush at the rally.

What a gem this is. Trolls are so delightfully simple-minded. 'it is so obvious with posters doing predictions'...coz I guess republicans don't do that...

'This is a Democrat website. It is so obvious with posters doing predictions. The Was Post is a mouthpiece for the Left and is doomed.'

"Ford's campaign was over. Done. Finished. Over"

Star, you're sounding very unDemocratic right now, this just plays into their myth machine.

They have no doubt POLLED the results of the Kerry attack and decided to resurrect it because it made some sort of noticable dent...

Unfortunately, the Ford ad would get my vote as the best of this election cycle - regardless of the overt racism and everything else that is wrong with it, it had achieved its goal perfectly - the second someone had the idea for the ad, Ford's campaign was over. Done. Finished. Over. Until that point, the race was very close. After, the polls immediately showed Corker pulling away from Ford. It is a shame.
The other really unfortunate thing was that as far as I know, Ford didn't offer a good rebuttal to it - something like that deserves to be addressed at least tangentially if not directly - when we stop ignoring it and deem it unacceptable, it will go away.

Well, I was wrong, Mehlman's robocall commercials ARE illegal, even outside the repeat calls; apparently, if you don't identify yourself and offer a return phone number, AT THE TOP OF THE AD, it is ILLEGAL.

> Reducing information to the quality of beer ads for the superbowl is a travesty. At this point, the super bowl ads are more truthful.

Apparently you guys have been asleep. The Washington Post long ago ceased to be about informing its readers. It's now a happy mouthpiece for unfiltered, un-truth-contexted presidential lies. That John Harris giddily jumped on the All-John-Kerry-All-The-Time bandwagon over the last few days (after hypocritically writing a book decrying the very same trend in journalism) should leave that painfully clear to all of its former readers.

Matthews thought "the floozy" was real cute...

Anyone else see a hard-time girl, down on her luck and willing to say or do anything?

That was a "class" slam, just like the black girl fawning over Ford's good looks was race baiting.

Wonder if they tried switching them?

HYPOCRITES!

I don't know about the amusement in the ads.

THey are downright nasty and an affront. But they are a reality. Worse though, is that the nastier they get without a popular rejection of the candidates using them, the more precedent they provide for candidates to blatantly lie in future campaigns.

These are elections about our national policy direction whether we want to acknowledge that or not.

Reducing information to the quality of beer ads for the superbowl is a travesty. At this point, the super bowl ads are more truthful.

"Like it or not, the Playboy "call me" ad was effective."

So is arsenic...

That doesn't leave the moral issue up for grabs, Chris needs to call it what it really is: a sleazy political ad that represents the very subterfuge of intractible arrogance and ultimate corruption that brought down Rome, Great Britain, and Napoleon. And every other self appointed super-power ruled by a status quo willing to do anything to hold onto that power.

Sorry, Zathras, you are right in the essence of your post, but my arguement wasn't with the "effectiveness" factor, it was the pandering.

Chris did nothing in this post to advance our nation's future progress, to some place in democracy, beyond this profane power ceiling suffered by all the great nations in history, because these "leaders" will not change to meet the needs of history..

Until we all stand up and demand something better, in everything we say and do AND WRITE we just cycle right into the same self-destructive trap.

We're talking the Washington Post here, folks, not the Anytown Gazette.

This is a Democrat website. It is so obvious with posters doing predictions. The Was Post is a mouthpiece for the Left and is doomed.

Progressive - the Ford/Mehlman parody ad link should be

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=axJ67DOHpXQ

Clever. Thanks for the heads up. That Ken Mehlman is gay is just another thing the GOP doesn't want its "useful nuts" in the evangelical ranks to know.

Ok - now my predictions. . .

House - 21
Senate - 4

Vote!

"Morally right or wrong? We leave that debate to others."

Anyone remember when the media had integrity? It seems so long ago.

They must have missed this one:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DHKo-16-fKI

Do yourself a favor and go online to YouTube to see a great parody of the RNC Playboy Party ad. In the search field on YouTube.com, type the following: blogActive parody of Ford ad and Ken Mehlman. You might also try this link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=axJ67DOHpXQ. Brilliant!

Chris, I like your blog but you are being very naive to assume that the Corker ad was not an act of racism.

First of all, there was one black person in the entire and she says "I like the way he looks". Very shallow and considering that this is the only person of color in the ad, a pretty demeaning implication.

Secondly, the floozy, the fact that the ad closes on her indicates that the GOP wants the focus to be on HER and the fact that Harold Ford apparently dated her.

The ad was racist and to say otherwise is either sheer naivete or outright denial. Racism is no longer as obvious as saying the "n" word on the street or even Jesse Helms's "hands" ad against Harvey Gantt in 1990.

The Best commerical hands down has been Gen Wes Clark's commericial against the Iraqi war -

It presents the issue in clear stateman's like manner - I am certan the ad is going to push a lot of independents out to vote Dem.

If this ad is a preview of his up and comming presidential campaign then I say "look out McCain - you are about to be buried alive."

Bobby Wightman-Cervantes
www.balancingtheissues.com

Ya'll are missing the point of this blog. "Best" here means most effective. Like it or not, the Playboy "call me" ad was effective. It doesn't matter whether the implications were true or not, because that deals with the substantive issues. This blog is not about the substantive issues--it is about winning the votes, pure and simple (okay, maybe not pure). Democrats make the mistake over and over again that they should win elections because they are in the right. It doesn't work that way! Because of this fallacy, Democrats have not refined their approach to the procedural aspects of elections nearly as well as Republicans. If Democrats don't start taking these issues seriously, they might find themselves on the political sidelines for even longer.

When I clicked on the link, I was hoping that perhaps the Fix would reward politicians for ads that were honest representations. That perhaps the "best" ads would be some combination of positive message ads and honest ads which differentiated policy positions without demonizing one's opponent.

Sadly, no. Hackery is again rewarded. Is this ad truthful? Who cares! It was effective! Does this ad contribute to fair debate? Who cares, it worked!

No, the worst ad in my opinion was the Kerry-healey ad in Mass with the woman walking through the dark parking deck. Her poll numbers went DOWN after this ad was aired and she paid for it.

As funny as the Puppy ad - has anyone seen the Democrat ad that's lambasting Steele's record, and at one point shows a picture of him with the puppy as the announcer says, "It isn't even his dog"?

It was the caption that read, "Someone else's dog," that absolutely cracked me up.

I assume there's going to be a "worst of" entry? I'm laying down a hunny dollars right now on Steve Chabot's (OH-1 CD) ad wherein a little 7-year old girl gets electrocuted for the worst ad of this or any other election cycle ever. Because his opponent favors electrocuting little girls!

Charlie Crist the Republican candidate for governor here in Florida has been running some very funny ads against his opponent, Congressman Jim Davis. Davis has the "second worst attendance record" in Congress since he started running for governor. The ads depict an empty chair zipping by some of Washington's landmarks with a voiceover asking "Where's Jim Davis?". The ad talks about his attendance and his alleged support for tax increases. He is identified as a "Washington insider", paid over $1,000,000 to represent Florida but he does not show up for work. It also shows people looking for him. After castigating his tax record and his "F" from the NRA and his endorsement by Hillary Clinton, the add says "Jim Davis, wrong for Florida when he does show up".

I'm not a fan of Steele's commericals because I thought they were so vague.

However, I would have listed it under a "Puppy" umbrella to include the Democrat response: "Michael Steele may like puppies, but he LOVES George Bush!" was a smart, funny counterpoint using the same light-hearted approach.

I usually defend Chris, but JEP is absolutely right. There's a big difference between being "neutral" and being wilfully blind to racism. That ad was repugnant and everyone associated with it should be ashamed. I'm all for politics being a contact sport, but this kind of stuff --- in 2006? I guess the southern strategy remains alive and well.

The Klobuchar "ashamed" ad was pretty good. For those not in the know, her opponent Mark Kennedy began running ads calling Klobuchar 'soft on crime.' To which her campaign responded with an ad depicting some victims of crime supporting Klobuchar's (current Hennepin County attorney) candidacy & record. The ad ends with the mother of a little girl who was killed by a stray bullet saying "Mark Kennedy, you should be ashamed." It was the best of both: fluffy pro-candidate piece, that also manages to deliver a stinger to the opponent.

The Democratic Party needs to find more Jon Tester's to run for office. He has been one of best new candidates this year and had a great ad campaign.

Rob
http://robwire.com

"Morally right or wrong? We leave that debate to others."

that is almost as shameful as the commercial...

First time I've really been personally disappointed in one of your posts, Chris.

If people like you don't take a stand on these election related moral issues, instead of the phony ones, who can we turn to for guidance?