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The Case For Tom Vilsack

As Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack formally kicks off his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination this morning, it seemed like the perfect time to make the case for his chances in a field potentially crowded with candidates named Clinton, Obama and Gore.

Iowa's Tom Vilsack
Tom Vilsack becomes the first Democrat to officially declare his presidential candidacy today. Above, he speaks Nov. 20 at the Statehouse in Des Moines. (AP Photo)

For the case against a Vilsack bid, check back early next week. Neither of these posts should be read as an indicator of whether Vilsack can win or not. These posts are meant to spark conversation, so feel free to agree, disagree, condemn or compliment in the comments section below.

Vilsack Can Win!

Any argument for Vilsack starts with his life story -- perhaps the most compelling of any candidate on either side considering the 2008 race.

An orphan, Vilsack was adopted by a couple in Pittsburgh. His adoptive father struggled financially and his mother battled alcoholism. Vilsack has described his upbringing as "troubled but loving." He went on to graduate from Hamilton College and Albany Law School. He married his wife -- Christie -- and they settled in her native Iowa. He was elected mayor of Mt. Pleasant in 1987 and to the state Senate five years later. In 1998 he made a miraculous comeback to win the governorship and was reelected four years later.

That sort of "up from the bootstraps story," which is an essential part of Vilsack's stump speech, is extremely compelling for voters who may feel that politicians have little understanding of the everyday lives of regular Americans. Vilsack, more so than any other candidate currently considering the race, has a sort of "everyman" appeal that may carry extra value for an electorate sick of politics as usual.

Vilsack also has somewhat successfully avoided being typecast as liberal or a conservative within the party. Yes, he is the head of the centrist Democratic Leadership Council, but he also enjoys relatively positive relationship with two antagonists of that segment of the party -- organized labor and the blog ("netroots") community. While neither is likely to embrace Vilsack with open arms (labor seems to be leaning toward former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, the blogs -- to the extent they have unity -- favor people like Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, former Vice President Al Gore and retired Gen. Wesley Clark), they will not likely be openly antagonistic to the Iowa governor's candidacy either. Vilsack supporters believe his concrete accomplishments as governor -- building six new power plants during his tenure, a focus on early childhood education -- that will play well to Democrats regardless of their ideological underpinnings.

The other primary argument in Vilsack's favor is geography. John Kerry's narrow loss in 2004 has made many within the party wary of nominating another northeastern candidate (Sen. Clinton, we're looking at you). The argument is that a candidate from the Midwest or South is better positioned to win key states like Minnesota, Ohio and -- you guessed it -- Iowa.

In 2000, Al Gore carried Iowa 49 percent to 48 percent over George W. Bush, a margin of 4,000 votes out of more than 1.2 million cast. Four years later, Bush beat Kerry 50 percent to 49 percent in the state -- 10,000 votes separated the two.

Putting together the electoral votes necessary for a Democrat to win the presidency in 2008 can be done any number of ways, but in each of the formulas, Iowa (7 electoral votes), Minnesota (8), and Ohio (20) are essential. Vilsack is likely to argue that he would give Democrats their best chance of piling up electoral votes in the Midwest while not hurting their chances in other regions of the country as -- arguably -- Clinton might do in the South.

Vilsack allies argue that much of Kerry's winning pitch in Iowa and beyond in 2004 was centered on the idea that he was the candidate best equipped to beat Bush. Winnability matters to early caucus and primary voters, they say, stressing that Vilsack has a strong case to make against anyone Republicans nominate.

Before making general election calculations, however, Vilsack must find a way to win his party's nomination -- a road that just happens to start in his home state. It remains to be seen whether Vilsack's native-son status is a blessing or a curse, but it's clear that he will be a major player in the Iowa caucuses along with Clinton, Obama, Edwards and Evan Bayh (if they should all choose to run).

Should Vilsack win the Iowa caucuses, he immediately becomes a major player in the nomination fight. Although he remains largely unknown outside of his home state, a win in the caucuses could well propel him to competitiveness in Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Vilsack is certainly not as well known as some of the top-tier candidates expected to run for the Democratic nod. But today he becomes the first Democrat to formally launch his campaign, which means something. He appears set to spend the next year traveling the country looking for support.

Conventional wisdom dictates that Vilsack is a long shot for the nomination. But conventional wisdom can be wrong. Vilsack is hoping that in his case it is.

*** Read Post reporter Dan Balz's report from the Vilsack announcement, and read the full text of Vilsack's speech.

Monday: The Case Against Vilsack.

The Fix sat down with Vilsack early this year to talk about his governing philosophy and political future.

By Chris Cillizza |  November 30, 2006; 9:40 AM ET  | Category:  Eye on 2008
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Well, it has now been three weeks since the Washington Post has been delivered to my house. The delivery subcontractor still does not acknowledge or return phone calls, and apparently the Washington Post doesn't really care.

Do not bother subscribing to the Washington Post if you live in Lexington Park, MD.

Don't waste your money paying for a product not delivered.

Posted by: Don't Bother | November 30, 2006 09:49 AM

I think that although Vilsack does have a great back story, the only reason he is running for President is because he is the governor of Iowa. I see him as a Dick Gephardt type candidate. He will put all his eggs into winning Iowa and hope that will take him over the top. The only problem is with Nevada, New Hampshire (which by the way I think will move their election up maybe even ahead of Iowa), and south carolina coming so close a win in Iowa has lost some of its importance.

Posted by: Andy R | November 30, 2006 10:10 AM

Tom Vilsack is a very decent guy. Saying that, his chances of winning the nomination are as good as Ben Bradlee winning the Boston Marathon.

Posted by: Joe Turtle | November 30, 2006 10:14 AM

I don;t really give a damn about Vilsack, but I was so severely maligned on the board yesterday that I feel the need to set a few things straight.

For the record, I am not a Republican. I used to be a Democrat and am a veteran of both Clinton campaigns, the Gore campaign, though not Kerry.

I am currently a registered Independent. I became one when Dems started attacking people and not thinking for themselves. The fact that no one on the board yesterday, even when they read Lott's full, direct quote, could nopt realize what he was saying and see the frightening similarity to Kerry only proves that both the Dems and the GOP are completely incapable of thinking for themselves and are simply hell-bent on attacking each other and nothing else. And people wonder why an overwhelming majority of people in this country hate politics.

I encourage all of you to get some much needed perspective.

Posted by: Glover Park | November 30, 2006 10:18 AM

I don't buy the momentum argument. The primaries are all about the expectatios game. People will expect Vilsack to win in Iowa.

Posted by: Zach | November 30, 2006 10:29 AM

I don't buy the momentum argument. The primaries are all about the expectatios game. People will expect Vilsack to win in Iowa.

Posted by: Zach | November 30, 2006 10:29 AM

Vilsack, I just don't know yet. I have so little sense of him. I've been a dedicated political blogger for many years and there just hasn't been much out there about him. As Chris says, I don't think there is much passion either way about him in the progressive netroots--although being part of the corporatist DLC does raise concerns.

And I don't know how 'building 6 power plants' is a postive for a Dem. What kind of power plants? Polluting and regressive? Or cleaner technology? Makes a difference.

His life story is compelling, certainly... although not as much as Obama's. But I don't know how he sounds or emotes--does he have passion, can he move people? That counts, bigtime.

I see George Will of the rightwing media [here's looking at you, WaPo] is already attacking Jim Webb [who has a son in Iraq] for speaking frankly to the Little Prince [not allowed, might cause him to have a tantrum or hissy fit, which of course he did]. Webb had the audacity to say he would like his son to be coming home from Iraq... and Bush [whose own military-age daughters are currently enjoying a week-long partying spree in Argentina, even after being asked to leave by the Argentine government becvause their drunken debauchery was making them a security risk to other guests at thier hotel] just got real snippy about that. So Will and other winger pundits like Hannity just got so huffy:

'Even before his studied truculence in response to the president's hospitality, Webb was going out of his way to make waves. A week after the election, he published a column in the Wall Street Journal that began this way:

"The most important -- and unfortunately the least debated -- issue in politics today is our society's steady drift toward a class-based system, the likes of which we have not seen since the 19th century. America's top tier has grown infinitely richer and more removed over the past 25 years. It is not unfair to say that they are literally living in a different country."

Webb is what the DC pundits and Kool Kids hate most -- a straight-talking populist. WEhat John MCCain wishes he were. And what's really hilarious is that Will, that mummified, pompous, pontificating bore, calls Webb a 'boor'.

So if you want to know who the rigwingers fear most -- watch who they are attacking right now. Yesterday Hannity went after Webb and Obama, to try to destroy them now, before they get stronger.

Posted by: drindl | November 30, 2006 10:29 AM

Glover park -- i suggest YOU get some perspective. To compare John Kerry [a war hero, for all his lack of communication skills] to Trent Lott, ]a sleazy, corrupt chickenhawk racist his entire life] is just ludicrous. End of story.

Posted by: drindl | November 30, 2006 10:37 AM

I thought it was interesting that Will left out part of what Bush said in order to make it seem as if Webb was picking a fight. Bush did ask "How's your boy?" and Webb said "I'd like to get them out of Iraq." Instead of giving him a kind of forlorn nod or something to show compassion, Bush replied curtly with, "That's not what I asked you. How's your boy?" Let's face it-- that's just smarmy. And clearly Webb was not picking a fight; he went out of his way to avoid the President, who ultimately cornered him to ask him about his son, who is in combat in a war that the president started under false pretenses and refuses to end based on a nonexistant strategy. I'd say Webb was justified, and Will is a self-righteous jerk.

Posted by: JD | November 30, 2006 10:37 AM

I honestly can't believe how rude bush was to webb -- the man is disgusting. The lowest of the low. Thought it was pretty funny though when he was snubbed by the King of Jordan and the PM of Iraq yesterday though... nobody in the world has any respect for him anymore. Except of course for the reality challenged 30 % or so in this country.

Posted by: | November 30, 2006 10:40 AM

Can't agree more about George Will's pomposity. I guess slaughtering thousands of people and promoting instability in the most unstable area of the world is okey dokey for this tool. Bush needs people telling him reality, not the lickspittles that think he is Jesus mark II.

Posted by: John Lease | November 30, 2006 10:48 AM

This is what bush's incompetence has done to afghanistan:

"The gunmen came at night to drag Mohammed Halim away from his home, in front of his crying children and his wife begging for mercy. The 46-year-old schoolteacher tried to reassure his family that he would return safely. But his life was over, he was part-disembowelled and then torn apart with his arms and legs tied to motorbikes, the remains put on display as a warning to others against defying Taliban orders to stop educating girls. Mr Halim was one of four teachers killed in rapid succession by the Islamists at Ghazni, a strategic point on the routes from Kabul to the south and east which has become the scene of fierce clashes between the Taliban and US and Afghan forces."

We could and should have wiped out the Taliban 2 years ago. But there was all that oil in Iraq...

Posted by: | November 30, 2006 10:48 AM

If I'm not mistaken, I think Vilsack also served in the military, something that will also help his candidacy.

Posted by: Anonymous | November 30, 2006 10:49 AM

There is a large voting constituency within the Democratic Party that will never embrace Vilsack: The Progressive Democrats of America. The PDA is relentlessly seeking official designation as a formal "caucus" within the Democratic Party. PDA is the antithesis of the DLC, and Vilsack's DLC credentials will set the PDA aggressively against him.

Posted by: Bob | November 30, 2006 10:49 AM

Wow, are the gates so high and locked down inside the beltway that Chris cannot get out and look for more credible things to talk about?

The amount of information about the direction of the country in the down the ballot elections is so overwhelming - but so distant to the inside the beltway pundits.

Did any of you know that in Dallas County (a county wherein the Freedom project has gotten more people out of jail than in any other entire state) 47 County wide elected republicans were sent packing and left to claim unemployment - in one election the Republican party in W.'s soon to be home was thumped into the history books.

Of note though, here in South Texas the last bastion of the Texas Democratic party - a Republican was elected as the new County CEO (we call him the county judge - but not really a judge)

An analysis of the down the ballot elections shows the people are no longer voting merely party lines - but becoming engaged in the process and voting the corrupt bumps out of office.

It is sad the in the beltway pundits seem to fail to understand that what happens in the down the ballot elections portends for the future of the up the ballot elections

Character and honesty will carry the day in 2008 - Vilsack cannot win because he cannot and will not be honest about how Corn syrup is causing an epidemic of diabetes in our children and how fertilizer from the corn crops is killilng the Gulf of Mexico.

Bobby Wightman-Cervantes
www.balancingtheissues.com

A Christmas message

http://balancingtheissues.com/christmasfaith.htm

remember boycott all products (Christmas Gifts) made in China - there is something profoundly wrong with financially supporting a government which prosecutes Christians, buy buying products made in China for Christmas gifts

Posted by: Bobby Wightman-Cervantes | November 30, 2006 10:51 AM

I had the opportunity to meet Gov. Vilsack on the campaign trail in Iowa this fall, and he has his talking points down. (Nevermind that he was at a rally for Democrats and that we were all on board with the candidates he was out supporting already.) The important thing here is that he has been spending A LOT of time touring the ever-important Iowa all year. He's not somebody who flies in for a big gig and disappears, and he has made himself high-profile there.

I think that if Vilsack really wants the nomination (and some have questioned the sincerity of his intentions), he needs to get out of Iowa and run the same kind of ground campaign he has going in his home state. Even if he does take the Iowa caucus, the media will dismiss that win as a gimme for the former governor. He won't get to November if he doesn't run serious campaigns in other states and come out with at least one other win in an early primary.

Posted by: GoBlue girl | November 30, 2006 10:51 AM

And so I suppose the real legacy of George Bush is that he will be known as a sort of anti-Christ. .... Jesus took the sins of the world upon himself and suffered for everyone else's sake. Bush, by contrast, casts his own sins upon the world and makes everyone suffer for his sake.

Posted by: | November 30, 2006 10:53 AM

if you remember the stupid luntz focus groups, voters responded very negatively to all his religious talk.

Posted by: college kid | November 30, 2006 10:59 AM

If there is one lesson Democrats should learn from this month's elections it is that winning is everything. And winning means candidates who are acceptable to the wide range of voters. We should keep our minds, eyes and ears open to everyone, including Tom Vilsack.

Posted by: larendt | November 30, 2006 11:21 AM

I like him. He'll make an excellent member of a Democratic administration. Can't see him overcoming Hillary, Obama or Gore if he decides to run.

http://intrepidliberaljournal.blogspot.com

Posted by: Intrepid Liberal Journal | November 30, 2006 11:25 AM

Wesley Clark and Barack Obama have "up fromt he bootstraps stories" that are far more widely known than Vilsack's...you really think this is gonna get him elected?

Posted by: | November 30, 2006 11:37 AM

Vilsack should skip the Iowa caucuses. That's right, I said it. When IA Senator Tom Harkin won the caucuses in 1992, he gained absolutely nothing. He spent valuable time and money achieving nothing except that which was expected of him.

By contrast, Vilsack losing Iowa spells the end of his candidacy. Contesting Iowa is an absolute no win proposition. He should instead spend his time and money trying to win Nevada, where even a second or third place showing keeps him alive.

Posted by: Chris DeRose | November 30, 2006 11:37 AM

'If there is one lesson Democrats should learn from this month's elections it is that winning is everything. And winning means candidates who are acceptable to the wide range of voters.'

Agree, however, that does not mean candidates who are antithetical to core progressive values...Webb is a good example of the kind of people we need, so is Jon Tester of Montana.

Posted by: drindl | November 30, 2006 11:45 AM

This blog gets more partisan every day, if that is possible. In a post about a Democratic candidate for President, people can't help themselves but add something negative about President Bush. Can you survive one thread in a blog without mentioning your opinion of the White House? The President sought out someone to say hello and ask about Webb's son. Seems simple to say something cordial in return. Webb's response was disrespectful and negative. This is the new bi-partisanship the Dem freshman brings to D.C.? If he dind't want to talk to the President, why did he go to the White House? He could have easily found a reason to miss the engagement. Hard to believe some folks could turn this around and find fault with anyone but Webb.

Posted by: Dave | November 30, 2006 11:46 AM

"Vilsack allies argue that much of Kerry's winning pitch in Iowa and beyond in 2004 was centered on the idea that he was the candidate best equipped to beat Bush"

Yeah, how'd that work out for you?

Posted by: AmishRobot | November 30, 2006 11:46 AM

Vilsack has a huge mountain to climb in order to build up support and that starts with given short and dynamic speeches. I watched him on CNN, Thursday morning, 11AM ET time. What a boring speech maker. The only thing exciting are the people cheering to give him VA VOOM. Like Bill Frist, the lack of energy in a speech makes any 2008 hopeful appear lame.

1) He had better start flying around the nation and meeting with Democrats or he will get stomped by Edwards, Obama, and Hillary as they run for the finish line.
He needs to pull himself out of the slump in the polls, and if he not over 10% in national polls by November 2007, he better give it up.
2) Winning Iowa is expected. If he can't win his home state after serving 8 years as governor, then it is a sign of weak support. Again, he had better concentrate on his home state as well, to protect him own butt if he is going to be a serious contender.
3) Also, he is going to need to raise at $20 million to offset the 10's ofmillions in the back of Kerry, Clinton, and Edwards.
Advertising, setting up an office and hiring staff with suck up Vilsack's money as fast as he can hope to raise it.
4) Right now there are 10 Democrats seeking the White House, so when are we going to see a few drop out for lack of support? Probably by August 2007, if they are not high in the polls by then, they are toast.

Posted by: Cheryl Collins | November 30, 2006 11:55 AM

dave -- you are so partisan you didn't quite get the point -- it was bush who was rude to the man whose son is risking his life in iraq. he sought him out and then was rude and snippy and pissy, as he always is. he was rude, even though he has two daughters the same age, trotting around the world drinking and taking their clothes off for strangers. it's relevant and it's offensive.

this is a blog about politics. period. if you don't like it to talk about politics, go somehwere else.

Posted by: drindl | November 30, 2006 11:56 AM

of btw dave? you expect 'bipartisanship' from the Dems? absolutely. you'll get the same kind of 'bipartisanship' we got from republicans.

Posted by: | November 30, 2006 11:57 AM

Hurtling down an icy mountain at high speeds is supposed to be what defines skiing as a sport of extremes. This season, however, the extremes have all been about the weather, and it has some skiers and international ski officials concerned about the future of snow sports. There are fears global warming is causing a meltdown of the sport of ice and snow.

Three World Cup alpine ski events and two snowboard events have already been cancelled in the past month because of mild temperatures and rain. The warm weather has affected competitions in the heartland of snow sports -- Austria, Italy, Switzerland and France. In Europe, a World Cup snowboard event in Italy was called off yesterday because of a lack of snow, as was another snowboard spectacle scheduled for the first week of December in Paris.'

Posted by: | November 30, 2006 12:00 PM

Vilsack would have been a better choice for Kerry's running mate in 2004. Edwards brought nothing to the ticket, and could not even help Kerry win his home states of North and South Carolina. Kerry likely would have carried Iowa with Vilsack as his VP candidate. The only argument against Kerry-Vilsack ticket was that they're both Catholic. But Kerry lost the Catholic vote nationally, and having Vilsack on the ticket might have made a difference in that regard, too.

Posted by: Progressive | November 30, 2006 12:02 PM

Well-informed scuttlebutt on Capitol Hill has it that Kansas Sen. Pat Roberts may be looking for an exit from the Senate Intelligence Committee, which he has chaired since 2002 and which Democrat West Virginia Sen. Jay Rockefeller will chair in the 110th Congress.

Those in the know say this editorial from the Lawrence Journal-World is worth a close read on Roberts' intentions, especially the "he has told some" sentence.

With the soon-to-be-minority Senate GOP determining committee assignments for the next Congress right now, things could shake out as early as next week.

Roberts has drawn partisan barbs for years for his stewardship of the committee. Critics say he did all he could to protect the Bush Administration from oversight; Rockefeller once memorably accused him of taking "all his talking points from the White House."

Posted by: | November 30, 2006 12:02 PM

I live in Iowa and am very enthusiastic about Vilsack's bid. He's been very popular here, including among Republicans. He's got progressive, common-sense ideas without being threatening to more conservative voters. The geographic element and his experience bode well--after all, the last two Dems to win the presidency were governors of non-Northeast states that have a conservative streak to them (though Iowa is far more along the lines of old-school Midwest progressivism, ala Minnesota, than hard-core conservative). He's got good, solid ideas on energy issues--I hope he comes to "own" the energy issue in the way that Edwards "owns" poverty, because I think energy policy is the single most crucial issue facing our nation and is where Democrats have the best potential for impressing the electorate with fresh, bold thinking. In short, from someone who's seen him up close, I think he'll be a great candidate, of whom we'll be seeing a lot over the next decade.

Posted by: Nic Arp | November 30, 2006 12:06 PM

Does Vilsack have anything on the ground in NH, SC, NV yet? If he won in Iowa he would need infrastructure in place to be able to use the momentum that was started.

Rob
http://robwire.com

Posted by: Rob | November 30, 2006 12:06 PM

Dave, have you ever been invited to a work party you didn't want to go to, but it was part of your job to be there? That is why Webb went to the event. He tried to avoid Bush and Bush sought him out. Now if you know someone doesn't like you why would you go an instigate a confrontation?

And Chris you need to walk over to George Will's office and slap some sense in him. The president of the United States is a person. Not any better or more important than any other person in America. And if someone spoke to me like that I would say the same thing. Your editors should be ashamed of themselves for publishing such an obvious childish attack.

Posted by: Andy R | November 30, 2006 12:08 PM

nic arp -- much better analysis than Chris. need to talk to people outside of DC more often chris!

Posted by: | November 30, 2006 12:10 PM

The comments made regarding Vilsack being a strong Presidential nominee are very good. However, they do not help him win the nomination!

Posted by: greg smith | November 30, 2006 12:13 PM

Glover Park,

Don't expect objectivity from this crowd. The lens is not one of independence and fair mindedness.

But take courage, moderating voices on here are good and add to the debate in my view. I am not in the like-mindedness club but do enjoy the debate - even Drindl aint so bad.

I did see your point about Lott and commented on it. I think you are right to an extent. I really don't think Lott intended to endorse segregation but his comments certainly weren't a repudiation of it. I am also not really sure Kerry thinks the american soldier is an un-educated doofus (although as a charter member of the liberal east-coast elitist crowd I wouldn't put it past him.) I think the situations are similar although the one sentiment - Lott's - is certainly more hurtful than the others.

Posted by: TG | November 30, 2006 12:15 PM

TG--thahks for the ringing endorsement.

'I am also not really sure Kerry thinks the american soldier is an un-educated doofus '

Are you forgetting that Kerry WAS an american soldier who actually served and was wounded in a war?

'objectivity' i might point out, is a very elastic concept...

Posted by: drindl | November 30, 2006 12:19 PM

Vilsack is hard pressed to deliver Iowa for himself in a caucus battle (I think he came in third behind Clinton and Edwards).

He will use this as leverage for VP or cabinet post slot.

2 term Governor with no foreign policy/security experience. Haven't we learned yet?

Posted by: RMill | November 30, 2006 12:28 PM

Any American who wants the capable, intelligent leadership that has been absent in the White House these past six years should be pleased Tom Vilsack is running for president. As is often discussed on this blog, governors do far better in presidential contests than do members of the Senate. (Which is why Obama should run now before his condition is irreversible). I think it is also likely, as Ciliza points out, that Democrats are more likely to look to someone from the Midwest, West or South as their standard-bearer, especially with the change in the primaries and caucuses. I agree with those who suggest Vilsack should begin working in states like Nevada to show broader national appeal, but no one should be surprised come March 2008 to discover Vilsack is one of the two or three Democratic candidates still standing.

Posted by: Scott Farris | November 30, 2006 12:34 PM

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