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Parsing the Polls: How Strong Is Gore?

Following his Oscar victory earlier this week, both coasts are abuzz with the prospect of Al Gore declaring himself a presidential candidate.

The Fix has long been a close observer of Gore's movements and parser of his words on this particular topic.

We even argued why he should and shouldn't run.

But amid all the Gore hype, we thought it would be instructive to look at the raw data surrounding Gore -- and there is scads of it -- to see just how big an impact he could have on the race.

The answer? Not as much as you might think.

Let's parse the polls!

When Gore is included in hypothetical Democratic primary match ups, he regularly receives a low double-digit amount of support. That's good enough for third or fourth place behind Sens. Hillary Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois as well as former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina.

In a Washington Post-ABC News poll released this week, Clinton led the way with 36 percent, while Obama took 24 percent. Gore placed third with 14 percent, slightly ahead of Edwards.

Those results are mirrored in a variety of recent surveys. A Quinnipiac University poll, which was in the field from Feb. 13-19, put Gore at 11 percent and in third place -- 12 points behind Obama and 27 behind Clinton. In a WNBC/Marist poll, Clinton was at 37 percent, Obama 17 percent and Gore 11 percent. A January Cook Political Report survey also pegged Gore at 11 percent and tied for third with Edwards. They were well behind Clinton and Obama. Zogby's January poll showed Gore at 13 percent and again knotted with Edwards in third place.

Somewhat surprisingly, Gore's personal favorability ratings are weak as well. In a USA Today/Gallup poll in the field from Feb. 9-11 and testing 1,006 adults, 52 percent said they felt favorably toward Gore, while 45 percent felt unfavorably. Those ratings are considerably less impressive than when Gore was running for president in 2000. At the start of that year, Gore's favorable/unfavorable score was 56 percent and 38 percent in a Gallup poll. By June 2000, it had dropped slightly to 52/39. But Gore was back to 57/40 by year's end.

In a CBS News poll conducted at the beginning of 2007, just 32 percent had a favorable opinion of Gore while 46 percent were not favorably inclined to him. Nineteen percent were undecided. Those numbers are a slight improvement on Gore's ratings in a May 2006 CBS survey where 28 percent felt favorably toward Gore while 39 percent felt unfavorably.

The Fix spoke with several Democratic pollsters in hopes of understanding what these numbers could mean for a Gore candidacy. The pollsters unanimously agreed that Gore almost would certainly receive a bump of support if he formally entered the race. They said many Democrats right now aren't comfortable voicing their support for a candidate who they don't think will run.

However, remember that Gore carries universal name identification, especially among Democratic primary voters. And it is still only in the low double digits at the moment. Everyone knows him, and just 11 to 14 percent of voters are willing to say they would support him. If Gore announces in the coming months, he immediately would be competitive with Obama for second place. But it is much less likely that he would unseat Clinton's hold on first.

What is Gore's growth potential? While his favorability numbers are better among Democratic primary voters than the electorate at large, the polling suggests he is not as beloved as the recent media blitz would have you believe. And if Gore did become a candidate, his rivals surely would seek to remind voters of the things they didn't like about him when he ran for president in 2000.

None of this means that Gore wouldn't be a formidable candidate. He is the only potential candidate in the field who can clear three major hurdles simultaneously: raise the $50 million to $100 million necessary to compete in the barrage of early voting states, show a clean and long record of opposition to the war in Iraq, and offer a deep resume of experience in handling foreign and domestic challenges.

At the moment, Gore is all potential. It is unclear how the public would react if he became a candidate. How would Gore react? Would he be the wonkish but lovable Al Gore from "An Inconvenient Truth?" Or the didactic, sighing Al Gore from campaign 2000?

Regardless of which Gore would emerge, the raw numbers suggest that this race would be anything but a slam dunk for the former vice president. The idea that a Gore candidacy immediately would turn the 2008 nominating contest into a close two-person fight between Gore and Clinton is not supported in the available data.

By Chris Cillizza |  February 28, 2007; 1:04 PM ET  | Category:  Parsing the Polls
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Gore will enter, and announce a woman as his running mate either at that time, or shortly afterward.

Gore/Sibelius or Gore/Granholm, something of that nature. VP picks are rarely what we see them to be, but by doing this he would steal the thunder under anyone. He has more than five months to scope out a VP-mate, and do it discreetly.

The groundwork is there, the crystal ball is glowing.

Posted by: | March 12, 2007 6:19 PM

President Gore Rocks! He's already won the presidency one time. He will come in to the race at the right time and win in 08 and get this country straightened back out. God Bless President Gore!

Posted by: D | March 9, 2007 9:24 PM

The Gore support is thin. Once everyone gets past his environmental do-goodisms, you'll find, well, Al Gore. A nice guy but I don't think the person most folks want for president. I like Al, and I like him fine where he is. I'd much rather see what someone like Obama or Richardson or one of the other "under the radar" candidates has to say.

Oh, and that comment about Al winning Louisiana because he chartered a couple of planes during Katrina? You must be kidding. As a LA native and lifelong Dem, I can assure you national Dems have a long way to go before they can take that state. The Governor, in any other state, would be considered a conservative Republican. Same for the Senator. I got a kick out of the Kerry campaign throwing out feelers about being competitive in LA in 2004. He actually went there and spent (wasted) some time. Emblematic of how poorly that campaign was run.

Posted by: Capster | March 1, 2007 7:39 PM

The "they" who pulled out of Afghanistan to attack Iraq is the Bush administration. Compare the troop levels in the two countries. I support our troops, and wish we had put enough into Afghanistan to do the job. Bush had other priorities.

Posted by: CJVA | March 1, 2007 2:50 PM

Gore's numbers are not low. As a matter of fact, I think that they are incredibly high, because they amount to what is basically a "draft Gore" vote in the primary, and I'm sure that he would get far more support than the Draft Clark movement of 2003. Keith Olbermann said that if "enough people asked him nicely," Gore said he would run, and other people have talked about the same thing.

As far as money goes, Gore has the deep pockets with his investments over the last 5 years to put $50 million of his own money into the campaign if necessary, so that won't be a problem.

Last and most importantly, Gore has been right on pretty much every issue of the last 30 years, and well ahead of the curve at that. We need Al Gore, and it is our loss if we don't convince him that the country and the world needs him to run for President.

Posted by: Steve | March 1, 2007 2:21 PM

Gore is playing a risky but possible scenario. Wait & hope for a second ballot at the convention. THEME: Re-elect Al Gore!

He is every Democrats first or second choice and could re-unite the Party in an instant following a devisive primary fight.

Posted by: Peter L. Sun City Roseville, CA | March 1, 2007 12:06 PM

in re "they pulled out of afghanistan to attack saddam "
"They?" who is this "they" you speak of meuphys?

American troops are still in Afghanistan and will be for a long time. Sure the mission changed and continues to evolve as their newly elected government struggles along in infancy. We have not abandoned them as you suggest.

In fact one of my neighbors from the military base where I live is being deployed to Afghanistan next week. My husband may be next.

Please support the troops and don't forget the Americans who are over there every day.

Posted by: proudtobeGOP | March 1, 2007 10:41 AM

But by far the best part of Romney's strategy is his campaign's primal code for Brand Mormon. As the Globe explains:
"Enmity toward France, where Romney did his Mormon mission during college, is a recurring theme of the document. The European Union, it says at one point, wants to 'drag America down to Europe's standards,' adding: 'That's where Hillary and Dems would take us. Hillary = France.' The plan even envisions 'First, not France' bumper stickers."

According to his campaign, Mormonism is not some new-fangled, outside-the-mainstream religion. It's Romney's lifelong crusade against heathen France.

While John McCain was squandering his youth in a losing battle against Communists--started by the French--Mitt Romney had a mission worth fighting for: He was going door-to-door on foreign soil, storming the French Bastille before they destroy our way of life. The man has spent his life training to fight Joan of Arc. Other Republicans may attack Hillary, but only Romney will burn her at the stake.

Posted by: | March 1, 2007 7:55 AM

Since he's not yet in the race, Gore's numbers are not low at all. It's not hard to imagine how higher they would be if he was in.
Even if we already had this debate, I'm pretty sure he will run :
- he's got more experience than all the other candidates
- he's known and appreciated all around the world, and America really really needs a leader who can be appreciated by his allies and respected by the other countries
- he can be seen as a pop star, especially by the youth (don't forget the "live earth' to come)
- Hillary and Obama, while attacking each other, will get weaker and weaker in the months to come. There's a long way to go until the primaries and, in the next few months, the public will be longing for a new face in the campaign. This could be perfect for a dark horse to come.
- He can raise money without any problem so he doesn't have to run so early.
- If he definitely didn't want to run, he would have said it. Saying that you don't plan to run in 2008 is not binding.

Posted by: Pierre | March 1, 2007 6:07 AM

I know this is late, but Gore could not possibly run.

If solving Global Warming was something that could be done without huge costs (i.e. Taxes) then it would have been done all ready. Gore would have to run on an extreme environmental position that would make any economic claims he made rediculous.

No, Gore will just keep making noise, forcing all democratic candidates to come out strongly for the environment, therefore pushing Mr Gore's agenda nicely without him having to relive the rigors of an election cycle.

Posted by: Bill | March 1, 2007 3:29 AM

Spoiled rich kid Gore--just like spoiled rich kid Bush has always been in bed with Mr & Mrs.Cheney's unsavory British philosophical sponsors. (In FDR's day we usually called them Nazis--those loving Empire while opposing any and all 3rd world progress & development.)
'Global warming theory' as promoted by the VERY WELL-FINANCED Gore-is a hoax--it is totally unscientific--and is really nothing more than promotion of a TECHNOLOGICAL APARTHEID designed to deny modern technology to third world nations--whose residents are insufficiently white to be socially acceptable in the social circles of Cheney and Gore.

Posted by: | March 1, 2007 12:42 AM

Army Times: Wounded Walter Reed patients told to avoid the media. "The Pentagon also clamped down on media coverage of any and all Defense Department medical facilities, to include suspending planned projects by CNN and the Discovery Channel, saying in an e-mail to spokespeople: 'It will be in most cases not appropriate to engage the media while this review takes place,' referring to an investigation of the problems at Walter Reed."

Posted by: | February 28, 2007 10:19 PM

Chris are you nuts? You are comparing Clinton, Obama and Edwards to Gore. Gore is not running and he is in third place.

Please keep in mind that he won the 2000 popular vote. I would like you to write a column titled "If Gore was appointed"

Mr. Gore if you read this America needs you, no the world needs you... please run!!

Posted by: John A | February 28, 2007 10:05 PM

I'm sorry, Gore would make a great president. A tried and true, tested-in-the-fire leader, for a change. Someone with real substance, for a change. Sane, and intelligent. Probably the most trustworthy person we could hope for. And his expertise extends far beyond climate change -- but to all the central issues affecting us -- our dependence on middle-eastern oil, for instance, which is warping our entire foreign and domestic policy, and straining our relationships around the world.

I think there could be a huge groundswell of support for him.

Posted by: drindl | February 28, 2007 9:29 PM

I agree with Nellie Bly. A Gore-Richardson would absolutely DEMOLISH any ticket the GOP came up with. I mean, how could you run against that? They were both right on the war, they both have executive experience, they both are committed to energy independence and the environment, they have geographic diversity, they connect with younger voters, they both have extensive resumes, and they even have the novelty factor working for them via Richardson's ethnicity. This combination would blunt McCain, Romney, AND Giuliani. Democratic voters better wake up quick because it appears that they are trying their hardest to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory...

Here's my analysis:
http://theseventen.blogspot.com/2007/02/gored-by-gore.html

Posted by: The 7-10 | February 28, 2007 9:23 PM

DTM said "By the way, I think Gore remains a very interesting possibility as a VP choice (I'm not saying he would do it, however)."

Agreed. Gore doesn't fit as the P, but the VP is a very different beast. He would be very good and it would be interesting.

Posted by: Golgi | February 28, 2007 9:19 PM

Of course I don't know if Gore will run, but if he does here is the obvious bumper sticker: Gore In 2008. This Time We*ll Get It Right (* to fool the stupid deleter of punctuation marks)

Posted by: jimk8mr | February 28, 2007 9:12 PM

Hillary still has a comfortable lead in spite of all the Obama mania of the last few months.

Posted by: csh | February 28, 2007 8:40 PM

Rite on meuphys. You say it so well.

Posted by: lylepink | February 28, 2007 7:32 PM

Gore could find a niche as Obama gets his first taste of battle and Edwards crumbles. Edwards has really lost it in his effort to try to belittle Hillary over Iraq.
http://political-buzz.com/?p=75

Posted by: justin oh | February 28, 2007 7:21 PM

JD: Your idea of a joke is not very funny and way out of line.

Posted by: lylepink | February 28, 2007 7:10 PM

Al Gore never said that he invented the Internet. He said that he sponsored the bill that funded the creation of the Internet. That's true.

Posted by: Blarg | February 28, 2007 6:38 PM

Having served in government under both Jimmy
Carter (POTUS) and Al Gore (Vice-POTUS), I can say that these men make far better ex-presidents and ex-Veeps than they ever did when they were in office. Carter has proved himself a great humanitarian and Al Gore a great spokesman for the Environmental issues of the day. That is where I would like to leave it. Al Gore was constantly parading about and saying he "invented the internet" and Jimmy was too busy setting up tennis schedules micromanaging the White House. As far as I am concerned, you thank Jimmy C for the problems in Iran--who else would toast the Shah as a great respecter of Human Rights. This went over like the proverbial lead balloon in Iran and probably was the straw that broke the camel's back. While I am not entranced with any of the Democrats in the race at the moment, I guess Al is as superficial as any potential candidate. Probably the most qualified guy right now is Bill Richardson, Barack Obama is still much of an unknown but perhaps he will develop out in the next year.

Posted by: Red Rat | February 28, 2007 6:34 PM

Gore...? can we trust a completely happy, fulfulled person to be president?

Seems totally unpredictable. In my opinion, one problem with Bush 43 was, he was so satisfied with his own life and his own trajectory he was never motivated to improve anything.

Haven't the best presidents all had angst or stress, or something like that to keep them on target?

Posted by: Golgi | February 28, 2007 6:29 PM

Where in my comment did I talk about global warming?

The voting public is quite capable of adding 1+1 and coming to their own conclusions regarding whether Gore is right or not. What we say here is so dramatically irrelevant compared to that visceral conclusion that arguing about it is silly.

Posted by: Judge C. Crater | February 28, 2007 6:11 PM

Chris,

I agree with the thought that Gore's numbers will go up if he gets in. He is a true rock star with the deep background and current convistions to be elected in 08. I think he DOES get in and by late September. Money will not be an issue and he should be able to build a team on the run without a problem.

Couple of other thoughts.

Gore needs a very serios diet as he looks as if he will explode at any time.

Chris...get rid of the wig...or is that paint?

Posted by: WIlliam Pon | February 28, 2007 6:10 PM

hear ye, hear ye, o pretender of zouk. the only republican to show any positive movement in the polls is rudy, and those same polls indicate that his liberalism on social issues is a major problem for social conservatives.

and in re: fiddling while the world burns, do you not see that is precisely what the current administration has been doing for the past six years?

they had bin laden basically in their sights after the terrorist attacks, and let him get away - why?

they pulled out of afghanistan to attack saddam - a weak leader who they KNEW, according to intelligence the rest of the world is only just seeing now, did NOT pose a threat - why?

they refused to negotiate with iran when iran was willing to talk - why?

they withdrew from the npt, knowing what russia's (understandable) reaction would be - why?

and yes, they willfully ignored the entire global scientific community on the subject of climate change - why?

you will say 'to prop up the economy,' but six long years later, the economic gains that there were did not, according to top economists, come from tax cuts and reduced regulatory costs etc. but rather happened because the economy is cyclical... the only sustained growth in recent memory happened under bill clinton.

now, because we did not invest in developing alternative fuels, our economy is tied more closely than ever to the whims of opec, while brazil meets sth like 40% of its energy needs with ethanol. could be us, with more enlightened leadership.

and the rest of the world is moving ahead of us in terms of energy technology - wind, solar, biofuels, etc. - while the great innovators in the u.s. are still using what we used in the '70s, and not that much more efficiently, either.)

this country is in dire need of ENLIGHTENED new leadership, rather than the texas frat boy who thinks science is suspicious because he doesn't understand it and it doesn't make his friends money. we need a new direction, and hopefully january '08 will not be too late to start governing using our brains again, rather than the seat of w's pants.

Posted by: meuphys | February 28, 2007 6:08 PM

I agree. Mathematical modeling of climates should be left to the experts. And the verdict from those experts is in: Global warming is real, and it's probably caused by humans.

By complaining that scientists can't predict tomorrow's weather, you're showing that you don't understand the difference between weather and climate. Which means that your claims about global warming have absolutely no merit.

Posted by: Blarg | February 28, 2007 6:05 PM

Gore is ultra hip right now, but he said it himself: "The red carpet is just a rug." What's faddish one year is out the next.

Faddish popularity does not equal presidential competency.

The current Gore fad has nothing to do with his presidential qualities, if any.

It's really just an offshoot of the recent explosion of global warming awareness.

There are a LOT of other issues the POTUS is responsible for, other than minimizing our carbon footprint. Nobody is talking about those.

And some would say that minimizing our carbon footprint is other people's job, not the POTUS.

Posted by: Golgi | February 28, 2007 6:04 PM

Mark my words, Gore will enter the race in May/June or September, will become the nominee and select Obama as his running mate. Clinton will be left out in the cold, wondering how she went from "shoe-in" nominee to trying to put a positive spin on this outcome.

PG

Posted by: PeixeGato | February 28, 2007 6:03 PM

Except that hurricanes aren't related to the global warming theory, even in the most radical boroughs, Judge.
some aspects of the climate model which are not well understood include:

Solar flux
Gravity, Pressure
Temperature
Density
Humidity
Earth's rotation
Surface temperature
Currents in the Ocean (e.g., Gulf Stream)
Greenhouse gases
CO2 dissolved in the oceans
Polar ice caps
Infrared radiation
Cosmic rays (ionizing radiation)
Earth's magnetic field
Evaporation
Precipitation
Cloud formation
Reflection from clouds
Reflection from snow
Volcanoes
Soot formation
Trace compounds

And many, many others
http://www.americanthinker.com/2007/02/numerical_models_integrated_ci.html

they can't even get the weather prediction for tomorrow right, yet there are some who believe the predictions 20 or more years out. some things should be left to experts and mathematical modeling is one of them. Agenda driven science is simply NOT science as traditionally practiced and accepted.

Posted by: kingofzouk | February 28, 2007 5:53 PM

Isn't it becoming crystal clear that none of these Dems is going to beat anything the GOPs put up? who wants to return to the Peanut Farmer days and relive the 90s again. you really want to fiddle while the world burns? appeasement, price controls, higher taxes, scandels, corruption, etc.

I will go dig up my cardigan. that should keep me warm during the nuclear winter.

Ain't gonna happen.

Posted by: kingofzouk | February 28, 2007 5:48 PM

The forecast du jour is for a new La Nina in the Pacific typically associated with more hurricanes in the Atlantic. Note I said "du jour." If this turns out to be true and we get another city-killer like Katrina anywhere along the East Coast Gore will look like St. Gore and his chances will improve dramatically.

Partnering Gore with Obama would create a steamroller and cause HRC to drop out. She'd have no chance and she'd realize it within days of that announcement. Gore would peel off the environmentalists and those who voted for him in 2000 and Obama the minority vote (see recent polls) and HRC would be left with very little.

Gore-Clinton: don't make me laugh. HRC could not bring herself to agree to this arrangement. She'd take her millions and go off and sulk.

Posted by: Judge C. Crater | February 28, 2007 5:42 PM

gore / obama is my ideal combo, although gore / richardson would be perfectly acceptable as well... but i don't know if gore would or wants to run. i'm sure if he does not, it would not be out of loyalty to bill's wife.

i don't think al would be vp again, but if he were not the nominee, he might still be a good secretary of the interior or sth else environment-related.

wow - i just imagined gore in and hillary out, and the field of democratic candidates suddenly became much more appealing.

Posted by: meuphys | February 28, 2007 5:31 PM

Bailing when you're in politics is a big no-no. If you're not loyal to one politician, you won't be loyal to the next. Bailing is only acceptable if your boss is in criminal trouble or similar extenuating circumstances. That's especially true with the big name guys. Gore can have the entire blogosphere jump ship and join him, but he still won't pick up the senior staff that run the nuts and bolts of a campaign. The blogosphere can't replace senior staff who know how to get a candidate in the right places at the right time with the right message.

Also, Vince Foster was shot in the mouth.

Posted by: dc law | February 28, 2007 4:49 PM

Sorry, that last post was a joke. Everyone knows that Vince shot himself. Three times. In the back of the head.

Posted by: JD | February 28, 2007 4:31 PM

I agree that he would need to raise money mucho fast. I think that half of HRC's staff would bail, however, since they're only there to suck up to her to get jobs post-win. Some of Hollywood (Geffen et al) would also flock to Gore and abandon Osama Obama.

Then, with money, Gore could broadcast the photos of Hillary shooting Vince Foster at Ft Marcy Park.

Posted by: JD | February 28, 2007 4:29 PM

I think some, maybe even a significant portion, of Clinton, Obama, and Edwards supporters would jump on board with Gore in a second. I'm an Obama guy right now, but I would jump that ship instantly if Gore got into the race (it's one of the reasons why I'm still hesitating to put that Obama bumper sticker on my car, which may not happen until I'm 100% Gore is a no-go for '08)

Even if the numbers aren't that encouraging for Gore, it still says a lot that he's often third behind Clinton and Obama. If he does run in '08, I don't think he'll be as obsessed with winning as he was in 2000 - he'll be running strictly on his passion to solve the climate crisis and his oppositition to the War in Iraq.

I also think his major selling point if he did get into the race is his experience. He trumps all the candidates in that regard and if Dems really want to ease voter concerns, we'll need an experienced candidate. Clinton, Edwards, and Obama don't really fit that bill in my opinion.

As for potential Gore runningmates:
Gore-Obama or Gore-Clinton (bring back that '90s magic!)

Posted by: Dave D | February 28, 2007 4:26 PM

There are two good reasons that Gore will not jump in.

1. Unless he announces within the next two-three months, it will be physically impossible for him to raise the amount of money required to compete in the primary. Yes, he has massive name recognition. But so does Obama, Edwards and Clinton. Name recognition alone won't do it this time. Money is required to get your message out, especially with 20+ states holding primaries on the first Tuesday in February.

2. A lot of the key hires are already committed. Baring a major candidate bailing out and putting their entire staff at Gore's disposal, there aren't enough qualified and experienced staff left to run a national primary campaign. A good candidate isn't enough. There are a thousand mistakes that an inexperienced staff can/will make that would sink any candidate. An experienced staff is necessary to avoid the pitfalls. Gore would have to pull from other candidate's staff to get a good team together and he can't do that.

Posted by: dc law | February 28, 2007 4:03 PM

Hillary has the goods on Gore, and would slime him mercilessly. Al, on the other hand, has plenty on the Clintons, and has also shown himself to be a pretty dirty fighter.

The knife-fight would leave the **victor** crippled. Gore knows all this.

Posted by: gitarre | February 28, 2007 4:02 PM

By the time of the first primary,both the lady and the child will be tattered and torn. They will not survive. If either is nominated, the mayor will win the election.The mayor will chart new ground in trouble making and incompetence. Please be nice to Al. We will need him.

Posted by: c. perry | February 28, 2007 3:57 PM

Gore is the man. He is going to jump in. I feel it in my bones. The pollsters are flat out wrong. The passionate undercurrent of Gore supporters is a lot stronger than people think. The Clintons are the main reason Gore lost. Without that baggage he will blow everone else away. GO GORE 08

Posted by: banneroos | February 28, 2007 3:52 PM

CBC, why isn't Gore a practical candidate? He won the popular vote and nearly the election in 2000. Since then, he's become a lot more likeable. And I think a lot of people regret voting for Bush; a vote for Gore would be a chance to make up for that. So what's the problem?

Posted by: Blarg | February 28, 2007 3:49 PM

This whole speculation is just an example of the hype problem in american politics. The Fix will not let the Gore topic go and will continue to hype it until the primaries actually begin. There is no substance to this and Gore is no longer a practical national candidate.

Posted by: CBC | February 28, 2007 3:36 PM

I agree that Gore would get a serious bounce if he announced. I'm also pretty sure a lot of it would come at Edwards' expense.

By the way, I think Gore remains a very interesting possibility as a VP choice (I'm not saying he would do it, however).

Posted by: DTM | February 28, 2007 3:25 PM

Wouldnt it be funny if it came down to the weather the next couple years, as to whether Gore was viewed as credible for his 'sky is falling' global warming crusade. In other words, if we have a cool spring and summer and fall....

Before you ersatz scientists start yelling at me, yes I know global warming is more appropriately measured over decades or centuries, not months. But the American public doesn't necessarily think that way, not any more in today's age of short-attention-span theatre.

Posted by: JD | February 28, 2007 3:23 PM

I'm usually skeptical of party pollsters or analysts or what-have-you, but I do have to agree with those you talked to - Many are hestitant to state support for Gore b/c he has said so often he doesn't plan on running, but that their opinions would change if he did. The support he would garner is considerably more than the polls let on.

Posted by: corbett | February 28, 2007 3:15 PM

Oh Nellie -

Gore/Richardson - what could they do do to restore dignity and smarts and respect to the US? Oh - so very much. It would be amazing to see this ticket. There isn't a better ticket out there. After all we have been through, all the deception and lies, this would be the best thing that could happen. Let's hope that Gore knows we want him in the race. There is just something about him now that was missing before and I think it has 'President' written all over it!

Posted by: star11 | February 28, 2007 3:06 PM

Gore/Richardson, that's my ticket. They are the smartest and possess the best resume. I do not care if they are fat or woody or the types you would not want to have a beer with. I do not want to have a beer with the president. I want him to get us out of this terrifying mess we are in, and restore our military, our infrastrutures and our respect throughout the world.

Posted by: Nellie Bly | February 28, 2007 2:59 PM

right you are blarg; I just enjoy playing the game of potentials and what-ifs.
What would be your dream team?

Posted by: proudtobeGOP | February 28, 2007 2:53 PM

CC:

The problem with your analysis is that you fail to do any historical comparison. In september of '06, Obama polled at best 3rd (where Gore is now) in a prospective Democratic field. After a full blown book tour, an actual expressed desire to run for president, an announcement, and a wave of positive press, Obama is now a solid #2 in national polls and is either one or two in IA & NH polling.

The fact is that if Gore allows for a speculation/anticipation build up in the same way Obama did, Gore will unquestionably receive a huge bounce in polling. Whether he'll be able to maintain it is a different story but his polling, despite his name recognition, hasn't maxed.

Posted by: gorebot | February 28, 2007 2:53 PM

proudtobeGOP, that's not really an issue. Candidates never declare their VP until after the primaries are over. I'd like to see one of the candidates select a VP now so they could campaign together, but it's not likely. It's too much of a risk for both the presidential and VP candidate to join up this early.

I'd love to see Gore run. The most likely scenario is that he'll wait until all of the other candidates have been picked apart by stupid "scandals" (Geffen, Edwards bloggers, etc.) and then swoop in to be the best candidate by default.

Posted by: Blarg | February 28, 2007 2:46 PM

CC - I don't see how you can make the case that these numbers indicate Edwards is ahead of a (potential) Gore candidacy. Even as a re-re-tread unannounced candidate, Gore fares better than Edwards in the polls. Looks like a fracture of the dem vote again.

question:
How would their VP choice affect the numbers?
Clinton/Clark
Obama/Edwards
Gore/?

Posted by: proudtobeGOP | February 28, 2007 2:38 PM

My mother-in-law, my father-in-law, myself, my best friend from college, my wife, and my wife's best friend all would prefer Al to any other candidate. I can assure you that there is not a single issue that this group of people have ever unanimously agreed upon.

Posted by: elliottg | February 28, 2007 2:34 PM

Nothing would make me happier than a Gore Presidency. Right now he is my dream candidate and I am part of that 11-14% mentioned in the article. I agree with those people who have said that his support would increase dramatically if he entered. I refuse to decide on any of the announced Democrats until December, though edwards is not that bad. I figure if he is not in by then that I will just have to face reality.

Posted by: Chance Brown | February 28, 2007 2:27 PM

The idea of Gore vs Clinton in 2008 certainly presents a wealth of delicious story lines: The former Number 2 running against his Number 1's wife. Gore taking down Hillary as payback for the pall Monicagate cast over 2000. Gore as "the new New Nixon" (Gore will be the same age in 2008 as Tricky Dick was in 1968). Automaton Al remaking himself as progressive firebrand. Passion vs. polling.

Posted by: GOAHEADMAKE MYDAY | February 28, 2007 2:23 PM

Gore's number would surge the moment he announced. There are also a couple of things you haven't focused on. Like the fact that he packs a 10 000 people in IDAHO! Could have had even more had the building been bigger.

His slide show is even poplar in the church societies in the deep deep south. He is in Oklahoma today.

Also. Louisiana goes for Gore when the story breaks that he chartered two flights an single-handedly evacuated a lot of sick people out of New Orleans after Katrina. Probably was responsible for successfully evacuating more people quickly than Bush.

Posted by: J. Henriksen | February 28, 2007 2:15 PM

While I've got agree AG's pick of the smarmy and supercilious Joe Lieberman for VP was a substantive political blunder, I still believe he would make a strong candidate and an excellent POTUS. That, said, I'm leaning strongly toward Obama at this point(the man is seriously, in capital letters B-R-I-G-H-T and that's somthing that's been absence in the white house for 8 long year) and Gore would have a tough row to hoe in convinving me that of the the two men, he'd do the better job.

Posted by: Damian in Pittsburgh | February 28, 2007 2:10 PM

I think that Chris is wrong - if Gore entered, his numbers are going to go way up. He is doing really well for someone who is not running.
I would consider jumping off the Richardson bandwagon for Gore if he would run. There is just something about him this time. He wouldn't make the same mistakes - he would jump all all over his opposition and if Bush and Co. continue to ignore how the American people feel about the war, I think Gore could win. Granted, he wouldn't be able to call on Pres. Clinton to campaign for him, as he would be taking the nomination from Hillary and there would be a lot of bad feelings, but I don't think the lack of Pres. Clinton on the campaign trail would be such a big deal this time. Pres. Clinton might even be able to see the greater good in campaigning for Gore, who knows. I think the tease at the Oscars was a predictable and a little silly, but who knows - it doesn't seem as though Gore would have gone for that if he is as adamant about not running as he says he is.
I think he would be a great choice - no doubt. The primary campaign would give us all enough opportunity to see how his speaking ability and demeanor have changed - if they haven't, he's not going to win the primaries.
Go Gore!

Posted by: star11 | February 28, 2007 2:09 PM

BW-C: You're leaving out too much information. Prosecuting attorneys for what? State crimes committed while acting as attorneys before the federal bench? Federal crimes while acting as attorneys before Texas (State)courts? Most members of federal judicial districts are licensed in the State in which the federal district court sits. It is not required, but it is usually the case. I don't understand your premise, and frankly find your thinking muddled. Lay out all facts before posting a screed like this.

Posted by: L.Sterling. | February 28, 2007 2:05 PM

Frankly I am sick of the Al Gore folks that continue their lost cause when the man has made it quite clear he is not going to run. I Recall what happened when Bubba handed him the office of POTUS on a silver platter, if I can state that as an opinion, and he then went on to trash Bubba every way possible with the pick of Joe, some call LIEbermann, as his VP, the Crown Jewel. I cannot forgive him for that and he is doing great work in the field that is his passion. Let him go folks, he in not interested.

Posted by: lylepink | February 28, 2007 2:04 PM

When a pol is going to run, they usually get into a physically streamlined mode... like Richardson. So far, Gore doesn't seem to be heading toward fighting trim.

However, it's a long time until fall, and current-candidates fatigue will undoubtedly set in, and... if "climate change" ramps up, his crusading and steadying hand may look pretty good to those who are dismissing him now.

It's not over until a fat Gore doesn't sing.

http://whathappenedtomycountry.blogspot.com

Posted by: Truth Hunter | February 28, 2007 1:57 PM

Personally, I believe Gore would make a better president than any of the other current candidates/prospective candidates out there. But why should he put himself through all the pain and hassle of a campaign? If he wins, his job is to try to begin cleaning up all of Bush's messes (that'll take more than one term!). If he loses, he's a two-time loser. I'm sure it's flattering to have people urging him to run. But he can live a much better life, and still make a considerable positive impact on our world, in his current role.

Posted by: JH in Four Points | February 28, 2007 1:23 PM

In the immortal words of that Laugh-in Character "very very interesting but, stupid" Playing Gore's game while issues remain undiscussed is sad.

He said he is out - let it go - he is out

I would love to see a poll wherein the candidates are tied to the issues of the day - not going to happen because we are not discussing issues.

Chief Justice Roberts of the SUpreme Court authorized Texas to start criminally prosecuting all attorneys admitted to practice law before the federal courts - but not in the state of Texas - and the press will deem that as not worth the ink - the politicians will dismiss it as who cares.

It is not about the parties - it is about the Constitutionally conferred authority the people gave to the Supreme Court to regulate the federal courts and Chief Justice Robert's decision to relinguish that power to the State of Texas - how sad - how typical of Washington - self absorbed narscissistic Washington.

I am sorry but I am tired of endless popularity press driven polls which ignore issues and the people

The third Branch of Government under Chief Justice Roberts left in place a ruling which says - the State of Texas has an interest in regulating who can and cannot practice law before the United States Supreme Court

Chief Justice Roberts to protect Bush cronies relinguished the power of the Supreme Court to Texas - it is the 3rd branch of government relingishing its power to the State of Texas -

If that is not newsworthy then nothing is.

again this is not about the parties it is about our constitution and the fact Chief Justice Roberts has declared the Supreme Court impotent against the encroachment by the States on the Power of the Supreme Court

If the US Senate cannot smell a rotten egg in this it is because the Brain Farts have so stunk up the Senate they can no longer smell rotten eggs.

Washington has become one huge Brain Fart - news of the day - which is the best popularity poll out there?

Bobby Wightman-Cervantes

www.balancingtheissues.com

Posted by: Bobby Wightman-Cervantes | February 28, 2007 1:22 PM

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