Parsing the Polls: The "First Impressions" Problem
You never get a second chance to make a first impression.
The Fix -- aspiring writer that he is -- tries to avoid clichés, but sometimes they are fitting. And when it comes to judging how voters view the candidates running for president at this early stage in the race, first impressions are critical.
A new USA Today/Gallup poll looks at how voters perceive the frontrunners for the 2008 Democratic and Republican presidential nominations.
Let's parse the polls!
After asking a series of horse-race questions, the poll seeks to drill down to what specific character traits recommend one candidate over another in voters' minds.
On the Republican side, self-identified supporters of John McCain were asked why they backed the Arizona senator over former Rudy Giuliani. The question was open-ended -- meaning that the pollster did not prompt respondents with a series of choices about why they preferred McCain.
A combined 37 percent cited either McCain's deeper experience (19 percent) or their higher level of familiarity with him (18 percent) as the prime reason why they are backing him over Giuliani. Sixteen percent said they supported McCain over Giuliani because they agreed with the Arizona senator's "views" on issues (not including so-called "moral" issues); another 16 percent supported McCain because of his military background and strong stance on defense issues. Fourteen percent chose McCain over Giuliani because of his "honesty" and "integrity," while 11 percent cited his views on "moral issues/abortion" as their prime motivator.
USA Today/Gallup asked the same question of avowed Giuliani supporters. Not surprisingly, roughly one in five (18 percent) said the former mayor's handling of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks and terrorism more generally recommended Giuliani over McCain. Thirteen percent cited Giuliani's profile as a "strong leader" -- an image directly connected to the terrorist attacks of 2001. The idea that McCain is "too moderate" or a "maverick" was cited by 10 percent of Giuliani backers -- the same percentage who said agreement with Giuliani on issues or his performance as mayor of New York City was the main reason they preferred him over McCain.
These numbers suggest that McCain's best route to winning the GOP nomination is to focus heavily on his years of on-the-job training to be president -- from his military service to his years in Congress to his run for president in 2000. The importance that McCain supporters invest in his "experience" could be the antidote for those undecided voters who believe that the Arizona Senator is too old to be elected president.
For Giuliani, his image as the candidate best able to keep America safe appears to be overriding any policy differences he has with supporters. The fact that 10 percent of Giuliani backers said they were behind the mayor because McCain was too moderate is a shocking testament to the fact that voters either aren't familiar with Giuliani's own moderate views or don't care. McCain and his team have been fighting the perception that he isn't a true conservative ever since the 2000 election, but it appears as though a segment of Republican voters simply aren't buying what the McCain camp selling.
Now, let's turn our attention to the Democrats where USA Today/Gallup asked the same question of supporters of Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama.
Roughly one-third of Clinton supporters said they were backing the former first lady because she was more experienced than Obama, while one in five (21 percent) cited Clinton's stances on issues as the reason they chose her over Obama. Fourteen percent said Clinton's gender was the deciding factor, while 11 percent said they didn't know enough about Obama to support him over Clinton.
Interestingly, the most common reason Obama supporters cited for their backing of the freshman senator was that they liked him better than Clinton or simply did not like Clinton. A matching 18 percent said they were more closely aligned with Obama on issues; 13 percent said he was a "fresh face" while 12 percent said Clinton has "too much baggage" or they "don't want another Clinton."
So, while Clinton supporters are largely motivated either by her experience or her stances on issues, Obama's support is rooted in the fact that he appears to be the best alternative Clinton. A whopping 30 percent of Obama backers mentioned their distaste for Clinton as the main reason for their decision to support the Illinois senator. Obama remains largely unformed, even in the minds of those who support him, while those backing Clinton have a seemingly clear idea of why they are behind her.
Yes, it's still very early in the nomination race; voters still have months (and months) to get to know each of these candidates better. But in politics, voters' first impressions of candidates tend to be the impressions they have of them by the end of the campaign. So, while these first impressions are just that, they are not to be discounted.
By Chris Cillizza |
March 28, 2007; 10:45 AM ET
| Category:
Eye on 2008
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Parsing the Polls
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Posted by: anonymous | April 1, 2007 2:11 AM
I support Obama because nn the past twenty years, I have seen Presidents come into office with a clear "mandate" and wonderful sounding platform, only to by stymied by their inability to LEAD. To lead means being able to marshall the forces of Congress to work together to pass legislation essential to carrying out a Presidential mandate or platform. I have not seen this. Therefore, the top priority I am looking for in the next President is the ability to work in a non-partisan manner - to gain the trust and support of Congress and to get Congress to work together in a non-partisan manner. The second priority is someone with a clear vision of current domestic and foreign issues; a vision of what America will like be in the future and our place in a global world; and how are we going to get their.
I see Senator Obama as the only person who can heal our divided nation - he has proven to me that he can work in a non-partisan manner. He has a vision for America - just read his book.
Abraham Lincoln once said ``A house divided against itself cannot stand.'' For too long we've been a divided country. We need someone who will be a unifying force and the force is with Senator Obama.
Posted by: andrea from Las Vegas | March 30, 2007 1:36 PM
What is up with this? Here we have Clinton and Obama, two senators who lack hands-on experience, anointed the frontrunners by the media who in turn talk about their lack of experience. Yet at the same time we have an EXTREMELY well-experienced and capable of candidate in the form of New Mexico governor Bill Richardson, whose one single reason for lack of broad support is that -- wait for it -- not enough people support him because the don't know who he is.
Well, isn't that the media's job? To inform us about these people? Richardson, Hagel (on the GOP side), etc. deserve just as much press coverage as Clinton, Obama, or Rudy.
Oh, and if the media is so addicted to having a "first" in the form of the Democratic nominee, Governor Richardson would be the first Hispanic president, thank you very much.
Posted by: Nate Doten | March 29, 2007 1:01 PM
The single over-riding reason I will not vote for HRC?
Haven't we elected enough ex-presidents relatives? C'mon people, this is getting out of hand. Were going to go Bush, Clinton, Bushes son, Clintons wife...what next, Jeb, does Chelsea get a turn? The Bush family schnauzer? ENOUGH.
We're a country of 300 million people, is the best choice REALLY the last guys wife? What are the odds (300,000,000 to 1)?
Posted by: Dijetlo | March 28, 2007 11:00 PM
very funny, u r ffuunneeyy.
Posted by: lylepink | March 28, 2007 7:49 PM
p.s. Just for the record, I hate snakes.
Posted by: God | March 28, 2007 7:22 PM
Just wanted to clear a few things up:
* Rudy is a boob, and an egotist. After a lifetime of self-absorbed philandering, he claims to have suddenly discovered a relationship with Me, conveniently in time for the Southern primaries. I don't know whether to laugh or cry.
* Hillary is actually a robot. I first created her as a test of My newer technologies, but never expected her to get this far. Now I see that she has convinced otherwise intelligent and normal people that she is 1. a human, 2. a woman (Oh Me, I laughed when she and Bill were courting), and 3. a reasonable choice for president. The technology is obviously not all there yet, but I have eternal patience.... (get it? "Eternal." As you can see, My sense of humor isn't bad, either.)
* Mitt Romney. Sin of pride. (1 or the 7 deadlies, remember? btw that movie "Seven," with Morgan Freeman, seemed to Me quite good. I get all your first-runs up here, even before you do. It's good to be the deity!) Anyway, say no more.
* Obama is a nice boy. I don't know if he's ready to be president, but he's a nice boy.
* For the record, My office was NOT responsible for the Elizabeth Edwards situation. And Johnny was good about it... actually, everyone was. (They're too scared of Me to make fun of cancer, for which I thank Myself... didn't want to deal with THAT, on top of everything else.)
* John McCain has been diverted from the Straight Path by the fallen angel Karl and his imp Dubya. For the moment, I allow them to live, to exemplify sin to the rest of My creation. At some point, I will get sick of the fun. Not yet, though.
* Billy Richardson I like, too. I may still let him have some luck once the Spirit really hits the fan. Stay tuned.
(yawns) Oh, but the weight of the world makes Me weary... Not! Still, I like to pretend fatigue from time to time, just to take a lil' break from My heavy responsibilities. But I will be watching with interest as the campaign continues, and will not interve, so help me Me. You see, I look on you with tolerant fondness, much as you may have your tropical fish whe you were young. So carry on, and I'll be watching...
Posted by: God | March 28, 2007 7:15 PM
The South is where most of the Christen right are located.
Posted by: lylepink | March 28, 2007 6:59 PM
rudy fearless? no, just a bully...
Posted by: | March 28, 2007 6:28 PM
lyle, the snake thing was never all that widespread, and then occurred mostly in the South. Today it has mostly disappeared.
Posted by: | March 28, 2007 6:27 PM
Andy R - I think you are way off base. Illinois state senate vs. running a city that if it was a country would rank in the top 20 in GDP. A bit better than costa rica, try a european country.
Being mayor of new york city is more complex than being governor of New Mexico - the land of the tumbleweed.
Rudy was also a fearless prosecutor for many years as well. If you want to attack his credehtials, attack foreign policy credentials not executive credentials. Incidentally, I am certain that Obama has zero of those as well.
I think Edwards and Obama are both challenged on the experience front and this is not insignificant.
Posted by: TG | March 28, 2007 5:24 PM
From what I saw of McCain on the network morning shows today, he has seriously lost his grip on reality. Too bad, since he has shown that he is capable of objective thinking in the past on issues like climate change. He is on the wrong side of this Iraq disaster and he should have learned not to stick by Bush OR his policies after what Rove Inc. did to him in 2000. You blew it John! The 29% that agree with you on the war still won't vote for you because you aren't a Jesus-freak!
Posted by: maria | March 28, 2007 5:18 PM
drindl: You are part correct. Pentecostal churches do include in their name such as " The Pentecostal Church of Christ" and some of the ones I mentioned earlier practice with poisen snakes. From my limited knowledge, this is the practice of the so called true believers.
Posted by: lylepink | March 28, 2007 5:15 PM
lyle,
actually the original 'holy-rollers' were Pentecostals, becuase they 'spoke in tongues'. I was raised in this church and the thrashing around and so forth that accompanies is the 'rolling'.Some baptist congregations practice this, but I'm pretty sure Church of Christ doesnt.
From NRO:
What little credibility Gonzales had is gone.
Posted by: drindl | March 28, 2007 4:44 PM
I have seen over these past years that the "Christian Right" has a lot of churches that are referred to as Holy Rollers. These incude, but are not limited to, Church of Christ, Holiness, and some Babtist. The hardest thing is to find just who the folks are that support these agendas.
Posted by: lylepink | March 28, 2007 4:23 PM
Am I me? I am getting confused again
Posted by: | March 28, 2007 4:05 PM
zouk is a sick cookie. the jimmy carter thing gives it away. what a transparent nut job.
Posted by: | March 28, 2007 4:03 PM
pigs are hot
Posted by: | March 28, 2007 4:00 PM
plan a war? I prefer the jimmy carter method. send in your four best guys - in secret. shhhh
Posted by: | March 28, 2007 3:59 PM
I am shocked, but the procedure isn't working. the voices remain
Posted by: | March 28, 2007 3:57 PM
Truth Hunter: I think I will put you in my "Jealous or Envy" catagory on a tempory basis. More and more your posts about Hillary seem to suggest just that, as in your 02:17pm trying to start yet another rumer about Bubba playing around.
Posted by: lylepink | March 28, 2007 3:56 PM
JD, are you serious. What does the mayor of New York City actually do. Does he run the Subways (no that is the transit authority) how about Education (no most of that is handled from the state level), over see the national guard (no again), write laws (no that is the city council), he keeps the streets clean and safe and thats about it. Now Rudy did a great job at that, and he is totally ready to be the Governor of NY but President of the United States. Give me a break.
And this comment
"NYC, which has a bigger government than most countries". Fine, Rudy can go be president of Costa Rica.
And I'm not saying that Obama is experienced, but he is more experienced then Rudy.
Posted by: Andy R | March 28, 2007 3:56 PM
'Too much pork' How can there be too much pork for you? You're a republican. You guys have been feasting on the whole pig for years now. And buying votes? You're shocked! Shocked!
Posted by: | March 28, 2007 3:52 PM
'Iran's latest action of seizing 15 Royal Navy troops plays into Bush's military ambitions, even perhaps bringing war supporters back in favor and leaving egg on the face of congressional Dems.'
The Brits were in Iranian waters, my friend. It was a clear and intentional provocation. It's all over Russian and European papers that the Russian gov't says the British and US will attack Iran in April - Blair's last month in office. Why do you think a military buildup happened over thee so fast? they've been planning this for over a year and a half.
Posted by: | March 28, 2007 3:48 PM
Tuesday, March 27, 2007; A05
'FBI agents repeatedly provided inaccurate or false information to win secret court approval of surveillance warrants in terrorism and espionage cases, prompting officials to tighten controls on the way the bureau uses that powerful anti-terrorism tool, according to Justice Department and FBI officials.
The errors were pervasive enough that the chief judge of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court, Colleen Kollar-Kotelly, wrote the Justice Department in December 2005 to complain. She raised the possibility of requiring counterterrorism agents to swear in her courtroom that the information they were providing was accurate, a procedure that could have slowed such investigations drastically.'
Posted by: | March 28, 2007 3:41 PM
"If Congress fails to pass a bill to fund our troops on the front lines, the American people will know who to hold responsible."
Yep, they'll hold the guy responsible who they disagree with most: George W. Bush. Thanks for not getting the message of 2006 and throwing the GOP into the dumpster for 2008. Brilliant strategy. The lack of any timetable at all + an unpopular war = an albatross weighing down the neck of the once-proud GOP + no end in sight
Posted by: ashamedtobeGOP | March 28, 2007 3:23 PM
Andy R, I hope you're joking about the experience comparison.
Being mayor of NYC, which has a bigger government than most countries, and saving them from the brink of Dinkins, compared to 2 years (not 3) in Congress? Give me a break.
There's a reason why executives (mostly governors) get elected president and not Senators/Reps....they've actually balanced budgets and run governments. Congressmen just run their yaps, mostly.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying Obama is all bad, and some of his ideas have merit; but please don't try to say he's experienced - quite the opposite.
Posted by: JD | March 28, 2007 2:54 PM
Thank you venicemenace, for your refreshingly forthright admission that the pork attached to the War funding bill is not meaningless. You're right, terrible legislation is not meaningless.
What it means is that many elected officials' votes were purchased with 'special interest' bribes for their home districts, you know...the spinach farmers, peanut storers, $6.4 million for the House of Representatives salaries and expenses account, $40 million for "tree assistance" , $3.5 million for "visitors to tour the Capitol and see for themselves how Congress works." etc etc..
I agree with the president when he says:
"I don't know what that is, but it is not related to the war and protecting the United States of America."
Too much pork, too many conditions on our commanders and an artificial timetable for withdrawal. not meaningless at all.
Posted by: proudtobeGOP | March 28, 2007 2:33 PM
Random observations....
-Is the bloom fading for Hillary's best rose Bill? Unseemly, the continuing rumors of his dalliances, and his coziness with George "posterior patting" Bush is unsettling too. And, after all, Bill did start the NAFTA snowball rolling.
-If Dobson is against Fred Thompson, then I guess I have to give Thompson another look.
-Iran's latest action of seizing 15 Royal Navy troops plays into Bush's military ambitions, even perhaps bringing war supporters back in favor and leaving egg on the face of congressional Dems.
-Saw a McCain interview on CNN today, he was caught in several exaggerations and looked anything but presidential.
Posted by: Truth Hunter | March 28, 2007 2:17 PM
Off-topic and apropos of nothing, I need to publicly admit how wrong I was about the war funding bill in discussions on the Fix. I said the pork therein is meaningless because the bill will never pass the Senate. Boy, was I wrong. It looks like GWB will have to decide whether he wants to lay down the gauntlet with a veto or negotiate. We'll see how it plays out, but I was adamant enough in my previous posts that I felt the need to admit I was off base! Carry on...
Posted by: Venicemenace | March 28, 2007 2:10 PM
Psbro: Chris Matthews, is and has been from the moment Bubba was elected, one of the leading "Haters" of The Clintons. I have no knowledge of why he feels this way, but it is there for everyone to see.
Posted by: lylepink | March 28, 2007 2:07 PM
Sure,
Obama was in the state legislature for like 8 years where he did alot of good things while working with both sides of the aisle. He has also been in the Senate now for three years and has already shown himself to be highly regarded by his peers for his work ethic and open-mindness to work with others.
Rudy was Mayor of a city. He cleaned up a neighborhood, and stood in front of a camera during one of the worst times in recent history. So he has shown what to you that would make you think he can run the largest bueracracy in the WORLD. Being president isn't just about giving speaches it is about managing the United States of America and working with congress.
Posted by: Andy R | March 28, 2007 1:47 PM
Andy R and JD: I hope you will back Hillary in the General, for, imo, she will be the next person to call The White House her home for the next 4 years, at least.
Posted by: lylepink | March 28, 2007 1:47 PM
Gee, you forgot to provide documentation for that gigantic criminal enterprise remark. Typical Democratic party operative. Insult, deny, and scream vast right wing conspiracy or in this case gigantic criminal enterprise. By the way, the Monica thing actually happened, the vast right wing conspiracy was made up by Hillary. Just bringing you up to speed. All the scandals I list are with documentation. Your opinion doesn't qualify as documentation. Just because you disagree with the war or certain policies or practices doesn't make them criminal. But using undocumented rhetoric borders on it.
Posted by: tarheel | March 28, 2007 1:46 PM
Psbro,
Have you met Hillary personally? Do you know if she is a nice person? I don't hate Hillary or even dislike her, what I do not like is the fact that she voted for a War that she shouldn't have and she refuses to apologize for it. Now I am fine with the fact that everyone makes mistakes, but I really want a president who will admit those mistakes and try and correct them.
Presidential candidates have to EARN our support, Period. She has not earned mine yet.
Posted by: Andy R | March 28, 2007 1:39 PM
Andy R, did you just say that Obama has more experience than Rudy?
Whhaaaa?
Posted by: JD | March 28, 2007 1:37 PM
And will you be posting (and repeatedly reposting) articles about Republican scandals also, tarheel? Or do you prefer to ignore them in your continued effort to make people think that Democrats are evil and Republicans are saints?
ashamedtobeGOP made a good point. The fact that the DOJ fires attorneys who don't prosecute Democrats strenuously undermines all of these Democratic corruption stories. It's not that the stories aren't true, but there's reason to believe the prosecution of Democrats is just political. The recent actions of Bush and Gonzales have made it hard to trust anything the DOJ does.
Posted by: Blarg | March 28, 2007 1:29 PM
sorry to break it to you tarheel, but unless you can link to your story, its probably made up. besides chi-town politics(and illinois politics in general)is crooked. not to mention a drop in the bucket to some of the crimes the repubics are up to. oh yeah if you dont like someone mocking you, either get a thicker skin or prove your point more forcefully. crying about some anon calling you a liar does make you look a little silly.
Posted by: spartan | March 28, 2007 1:28 PM
I love the Hillary haters. It use to really tick me off at the double standard in media and elsewhere when it came to Hillary. Hate is such a strong negative and unhealthy emotion. Unless you have met her personally you don't KNOW her well enough to hate her. What has she done to you?
But there are some hate filled irrational people out here, I know that because they're responsible for who we have in the White House.
I hope HRC wins just so I can watch Chris Matthews levitate in his seat and spray spit for eight years (chairman of the board of Hillary haters).
Posted by: Psbro | March 28, 2007 1:26 PM
tarheel and his tiny petty little dug up scandals -- compared to the gigantic criminal enterprise that is the entire bush administration... sorry buddy. you aren't hitting nerves, you're just desperately fishing for something to cling to.
Posted by: Sam | March 28, 2007 1:26 PM
Senator Clinton's Lawyers Seek to Halt Fraud Suit, by Fred Lucas, CNSNews.com Staff Writer, March 27, 2007.
Attorneys for Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) are trying to keep her out of a lawsuit that may ultimately force her to testify under oath about an alleged violation of campaign finance laws.
Peter Paul, the Hollywood businessman who is suing both Bill and Hillary Clinton, alleges that fraudulent actions by the Clintons and others cost him his multi-million dollar Internet venture. Paul claims to have been the largest contributor to Sen. Clinton's U.S. Senate campaign, spending $1.9 million to hold a 2000 fundraising gala attended by Hollywood celebrities including Whoopi Goldberg, John Travolta and Brad Pitt.
After investigating the matter, the FEC ruled that Sen. Clinton's 2000 campaign committee underreported cash it received at the fundraising event Paul sponsored and slapped the campaign committee with a $35,000 fine. The Clinton campaign committee also amended financial reports to show Paul's share of the production costs were understated by $721,000. The legal limit for an individual to contribute was $2,000 at the time.
Let's see. He could contribute $2,000 but actually contributed $1.9 million. Clinton was fined $35,000. That's a net profit of $1.865 million for Hillary. Maybe Hillary can use her knowledge of illegal campaign contributions to balance the budget!
Posted by: tarheel | March 28, 2007 1:23 PM
iceman -
Oh, excuse me. Gore, in a recent speech, advocated relaxing or doing away with existing federal gun control laws as "ineffective and unnecessary". So...I'd vote for him, too. So, Edwards, Gore, Richardson all appear to be pretty decent candidates.
Posted by: MikeB | March 28, 2007 1:20 PM
not a problem drindl, i suspect there is going to be a bloodbath in 08 if newt becomes the gop nom. one attack ad reminding people of his escpades with the government shut down and the clinton impeachment,(not to mention his personal life) and its game over.
Posted by: spartan | March 28, 2007 1:20 PM
Gee, some insults truly indicative of the left's maturity level and ability to accept reality. Seems I've hit a nerve, although unnamed posters really don't have nerves.
I'll be cutting and pasting until November 2008 because you can't deny these scandals documented in the Chicago Tribune, New York Times, Boston Globe, etc. When I used to just report on the scandals I got hit with where's your documentation or that is unsubstantiated BS. So now you can argue with the newspapers accounts. Go tell the convicted Democrats they really aren't in jail, it's all been made up. I'm sure that'll be a big comfort to them, just before the guys in white jackets take you away.
These are all liberal newspapers that at least have the integrity to publish and acknowledge scandals within the Democratic party. Something you are obviously incapable of.
Posted by: tarheel | March 28, 2007 1:18 PM
Oh thank you for that, spartan -- precious. Dobson thinks Newt is more of a 'christian' than fred is.... rich, very rich. Watching the mullahs bend over backwards to embrace the most foul characters imaginable is too funny...
All of these ' christian' men who've dumped their wives for younger women, [even while one was reccovering from cancer surgery] who've abandoned their kids, publicly humiliated their families... the hypocrisy of this is just beyond anything I hsve seen.
Posted by: drindl | March 28, 2007 1:16 PM
iceman, now I'm admittedly an Edwards fan, but there is certainly nothing wrong with Richardson. I could vote for him. Gore, too, if he abandoned the gun control nuts that seem to surround him.
Posted by: MikeB | March 28, 2007 1:15 PM
the incompetence is stunning...
"WASHINGTON (AP) -- Poorly written Justice Department documents cost the federal government more than $100 million in what was supposed to have been the crowning moment of the biggest tax prosecution ever.
Walter Anderson, the telecommunications entrepreneur who admitted hiding hundreds of millions of dollars from the IRS and District of Columbia tax collectors, was sentenced Tuesday to nine years in prison and ordered to repay about $23 million to the city.
But U.S. District Judge Paul Friedman said he couldn't order Anderson to repay the federal government $100 million to $175 million because the Justice Department's binding plea agreement with Anderson listed the wrong statute.
Friedman said he could have worked around that problem by ordering Anderson to repay the money as part of his probation. But prosecutors omitted any discussion of probation -- a common element of plea deals -- from Anderson's paperwork.
"I've come to the conclusion, very reluctantly, that I have no authority to order restitution," Friedman said. "I hope the government will appeal me."
Posted by: | March 28, 2007 1:12 PM
http://www.usnews.com/usnews/news/articles/070328/28dobson.htm
Focus on the Family founder James Dobson appeared to throw cold water on a possible presidential bid by former Sen. Fred Thompson while praising former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who is also weighing a presidential run, in a phone interview Tuesday.
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"Everyone knows he's conservative and has come out strongly for the things that the pro-family movement stands for," Dobson said of Thompson. "[But] I don't think he's a Christian; at least that's my impression," Dobson added, saying that such an impression would make it difficult for Thompson to connect with the Republican Party's conservative Christian base and win the GOP nomination.
Mark Corallo, a spokesman for Thompson, took issue with Dobson's characterization of the former Tennessee senator. "Thompson is indeed a Christian," he said. "He was baptized into the Church of Christ."
In a follow-up phone conversation, Focus on the Family spokesman Gary Schneeberger stood by Dobson's claim. He said that, while Dobson didn't believe Thompson to be a member of a non-Christian faith, Dobson nevertheless "has never known Thompson to be a committed Christian--someone who talks openly about his faith."
"We use that word--Christian--to refer to people who are evangelical Christians," Schneeberger added. "Dr. Dobson wasn't expressing a personal opinion about his reaction to a Thompson candidacy; he was trying to 'read the tea leaves' about such a possibility."
Thompson has said he is leaving the door open for a presidential run and has won plaudits from conservatives who are unenthusiastic about the Republican front-runners. A Gallup-USA Today poll, released Tuesday, showed Thompson in third place among Republican and Republican-leaning voters, behind former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Arizona Sen. John McCain.
While making it clear he was not endorsing any Republican presidential candidate, Dobson, who is considered the most politically powerful evangelical figure in the country, also said that Gingrich was the "brightest guy out there" and "the most articulate politician on the scene today."
sorry tompson lovers, mullah dobson just decreed that newt is the chosen one.
Posted by: spartan | March 28, 2007 1:11 PM
If I were betting, I`d take long odds on Gore being the Democratic nominee under the following scenario...Edwards has exceptional strength and organization in Iowa, and I suspect he`s going to overtake Obama as the anti-Hillary (those polls saying `I`d vote for a black, but I don`t think my friends and neighbors will` have some sorry realities hidden underneath). Or at least Edwards will if he remains in the race, but I can see him dropping out beforehand if his wife`s cancer worsens. Gore steps in and gets lots of Edwards` support, plus that of his own base. Not saying it`s likely, just the one I`d try to make serious money on. None of these Dems, by the way, is my personal choice (that`d be Richardson, but I have a tendency to pick candidates that come in last), so I`m not playing favorities here.
Posted by: iceman | March 28, 2007 12:53 PM
tarheel - liar, liar, pants on fire
Posted by: | March 28, 2007 12:49 PM
I am soooo smart. I cut and paste. they won't let me use sharp scissors
Posted by: | March 28, 2007 12:48 PM
Love it when ashamedtobeGOp and his buddies deny these scandals are valid, even when a liberal newspaper publishes it. Who is out of touch with reality?
Political hirings/firings scandal to cost $12 million. Source: Daley agrees to set up fund to compensate victims of hiring scandal, March 21, 2007, Chicago Sun Times, by Fran Spielman, City Hall Reporter.
Democratic Mayor Daley of Chicago agreed Wednesday (3/21/07) to establish a $12 million fund to compensate victims of City Hall's rigged hiring system and abandon his five-year-old effort to vacate the federal Shakman decree banning political hiring. Daley's former patronage chief was convicted of rigging city hiring and promotions to benefit Daley supporters and Democratic Party workers. Plaintiff Michael Shakman said the city "should have fixed its hiring system a long time ago" -- long before Daley's patronage chief was convicted of rigging city hiring.
The $12 million fund, disclosed last month by the Chicago Sun-Times, would be administered by federal hiring monitor Noelle Brennan. Brennan was appointed in August 2005 by a federal judge livid with the city for making a mockery of the Shakman decree, which was supposed to end political hiring and firing.
Posted by: tarheel | March 28, 2007 12:47 PM
I get all my news from Fox and am incapable of thought. dick - tell me what to think today.
Posted by: | March 28, 2007 12:46 PM
Why doesn't mommy love me
Posted by: | March 28, 2007 12:44 PM
JD -- you wanna see what some wingers do for kicks to bloggers they consider lefties?
'But when it was my turn, somebody crossed a line. They posted a photo of a noose next to my head, and one of their members (posting as "Joey") commented "the only thing Kathy has to offer me is that noose in her neck size."
You wanna talk about irrational hatred? Go to the Blog Report on Salon and just scroll down the righthand side. It oozes with raving, ranting, violent hatred for dems.
Posted by: | March 28, 2007 12:41 PM
I like ice cream
Posted by: | March 28, 2007 12:37 PM
Annon Poster 03/28/06 12:26 - this is something I have been warning people about for years. Bush and Gonzales are gun control nuts. Gonzales has actually promoted confiscation of all privately owned hand guns. And, incidentally, the descending federal judge in the recent ruling that overturned a flat out ban on gun ownership in Washington D.C. was a Bush Appointee!
Posted by: MikeB | March 28, 2007 12:35 PM
I get all my news from Kos and am incapable of thought. al - tell me what to think today.
Posted by: | March 28, 2007 12:33 PM
This is one really interesting article. Gun owners, bushco is asking your neithbors to spy on you:
'Project Safe Neighborhoods
PSN is agressively implementing the Bush Administration's strategy to reduce gun violence in America. The effectiveness of the PSN program is largely based on the ability of federal, state, and local agencies to cooperate in a unified offensive led by the United States Department of Justice. The new web site is playing a key role in helping coordinate the activities of the various agencies and the citizens and community leaders who seek to help them.'
Posted by: | March 28, 2007 12:26 PM
" Shiite militants and police enraged by massive truck bombings in Tal Afar went on a revenge spree against Sunni residents in the northwestern town Wednesday, killing as many as 60 people, officials said."
Who needs the "sand flea" when we are sending money to friends like these? Seems like the Shiite policemen we are supporting with blood and money are doing a fine job of murdering babies and women.
Thank you, George W. Bush for allying us with murderers that make the REAL sand fleas look like amateurs AND telling us that we absolutely need to keep doing it with a straight face.
Posted by: ashamedtobeGOP | March 28, 2007 12:24 PM
'Thank you donkeys for informing me of the day I can return to Iraq and continue my work of murdering babies and women.'
omigod, ROFFLOL, what a clown... what a freaking loser.
Posted by: | March 28, 2007 12:16 PM
After a 20 year reign of Bush and Clinton presidencies ranging from generally competent, to competent but irresponsible and dividing, to grossly imcompetent and even more dividing, this country gets a chance at a clean slate. Are the announced or postering candidates we have so far the best this country has to offer, including Hillary who at least 1/3 of real America hates, and whom another 1/3 probably dislikes? Those numbers are probably low, at least in the part of the country where I live. I was really looking forward to 2008 and the chance to elect an intelligent, mature and competent president that half of the country wouldn't hate. But I just don't know. I could go for either a Dem or Rep, but the choices look slim so far. I like Richardson okay, but he doesn't have a chance is is probably shooting for a VP slot. There is some hope for Obama, but too early to tell. I can't even think of anyone on either side I would want to get in the election who would actually have a chance in our current system.
Posted by: DHB | March 28, 2007 12:12 PM
Mpf, the difference between Rudy and GW is that W was elected striclty because of his 'moral' beliefs. It had nothing to do with his leadership abilities or his accomplishments. He was elected because the two people running against him 2000 and 04 were unlikable people. Rudy is also unlikable. According to everyone who knows him they say he is a real a-hole.
Now does that mean he won't win the nomination? No, but I think he will have real trouble in the general, especially if Obama, Edwards, or Richardson are nominated. All three of them are very likable people, with more experience then Rudy. Against Hillary he actually comes out ontop of the likability reading, but with Bill (in general the most popular politician alive) at her side she will be hard to beat.
Posted by: Andy R | March 28, 2007 12:12 PM
After a 20 year reign of Bush and Clinton presidencies ranging from generally competent, to competent but irresponsible and dividing, to grossly imcompetent and even more dividing, this country gets a chance at a clean slate. Are the announced or postering candidates we have so far the best this country has to offer, including Hillary who at least 1/3 of real America hates, and whom another 1/3 probably dislikes? Those numbers are probably low, at least in the part of the country where I live. I was really looking forward to 2008 and the chance to elect an intelligent, mature and competent president that half of the country wouldn't hate. But I just don't know. I could go for either a Dem or Rep, but the choices look slim so far. I like Richardson okay, but he doesn't have a chance is is probably shooting for a VP slot. There is some hope for Obama, but too early to tell. I can't even think of anyone on either side I would want to get in the election who would actually have a chance in our current system.
Posted by: DHB | March 28, 2007 12:11 PM
"Ex-Daley aide indicted by DOJ Political Stooge Who's Job Performance Depends Largely on How Many Democrats He Indicts Whether the Charges are Valid or Not"
Thank you, George W. Bush, for making everyone suspect amorality in government that was previously beyond comprehension.
Posted by: ashamedtobeGOP | March 28, 2007 12:11 PM
Thank you donkeys for informing me of the day I can return to Iraq and continue my work of murdering babies and women. We were losing hope about our victory in jihad, but now, I can take some time off, and return after the US troops have left. I always knew you Democrats were on our side and also hoped for eventual US loss. My first market bombing will be in your honor. I can't wait to visit New york and start "working" there.
Posted by: Sand flea | March 28, 2007 12:10 PM
I see zouk ['sandflea' ] is up to his old tricks again. jeezus he's delusional. wingnuttia personified in every way...
Posted by: | March 28, 2007 12:09 PM
Ex-Daley aide indicted. Sanchez rigged hiring for political workers, U.S. Attorney says, by Jeff Coen, Todd Lighty, and Dan Mihalopoulos, Chicago Tribune staff reporters. Published March 22, 2007.
A former top aide to Mayor Richard Daley was charged Thursday with rigging city hiring for Democrats who were members of a pro-Daley political group, becoming the highest-ranking mayoral ally indicted in the federal investigation of City Hall. Former Streets and Sanitation Commissioner Al Sanchez was accused of playing a prominent role in a scheme to reward loyal campaign workers for the Hispanic Democratic Organization from 1994 until 2005. Prosecutors declined to estimate how many HDO members Sanchez allegedly helped. A 2002 Tribune investigation found at least 500 HDO members on the city payroll, many in Streets and Sanitation. Sanchez retired from the city weeks after federal investigators raided the mayor's office in 2005. He receives a monthly city pension of $8,120. Sanchez, 59, led the group's Southeast Side operation, which had as many as 500 campaign workers, authorities said. Those workers were sent out to help candidates for mayor, City Council, Illinois House and Senate, statewide posts and federal offices.
Posted by: tarheel | March 28, 2007 12:06 PM
The emotional attachement that voters feel with Rudy will always win out over the "experience" of McCain. Rudy is being described in the same ways as GWB, and he won two elections.
But isn't the real story of this poll Fred Thompson?
http://political-buzz.com/?p=119
Posted by: mpf | March 28, 2007 12:03 PM
Why won't girls talk to me
Posted by: | March 28, 2007 12:01 PM
Meyerson writes in today's Post:
What gives with the Republicans? How have they -- not just in the White House but in Congress, too -- become so detached from reality?
There are, I think, four possible, partial explanations. The first is Rudy-ex-machina-- the hope that the party will nominate somebody who is not perceived to be part of their current mess and who will sweep them back into power no matter how big a hole they may now be digging for him. The second is a strategy to make it impossible for the Democrats to pass any legislation, and then run against the do-nothing Democrats.
The third is that the alternative reality conveyed by the Republican media -- Fox News, Rush Limbaugh and their ilk -- has created a Republican activist base that is genuinely not reality-based, and from which the current generation of Republican pols is disproportionately drawn. And the fourth, pertaining specifically to the inability of the administration to stop politicizing government, is that good government is just not in their DNA. Bush and Rove are no more inclined to create a government based on such impartial values as law and science than they are to set up collective farms.
Meanwhile, if you hear something go bump in the night, it's the Republicans, sleepwalking.
Posted by: Progressive | March 28, 2007 11:52 AM
People contribute a lot of time to Wikipedia for free, including high quality sections in math and science. There are valuable and useful math and science papers available free on the web. This leads to greater productivity.
The top 1 percent get 20 percent of the income each year. McCain is the 7th wealthiest senator and Kennedy the 8th. They are getting the benefit of this free work of others by getting 20 dollars of every 100 dollars created by our hard work.
McCain needs to emphasize more that he gets the benefit of our work and of free work like Wikipedia and that his immigration bill is intended to preserve his getting 20 dollars of every 100 dollars we create for the rest of his life.
McCain should emphasize that we can look up in Wikipedia how to find the maximum of a function, but that McCain has already figured that out. He maximizes his income by taking 20 dollars of every 100 we create by his immigration bill. That is The McCain Calculus.
Posted by: Old Atlantic | March 28, 2007 11:48 AM
they're very amusing, don't you think?
Posted by: | March 28, 2007 11:45 AM
I'd also point out that Richardson has done what none of the others have:
He's a budget balancing, minimum wage raising, tax cutting, green energy supporting, hostage-freeing, Western state governor.
I think that's far more of a winning combo than a calculating, poll-driven liberal Senator from NY with lots of baggage.
Posted by: MBW | March 28, 2007 11:42 AM
Clinton, Obama Meet With Teamsters Leadership
http://onthehillblog.blogspot.com/2007/03/clinton-obama-meet-with-teamsters.html
Posted by: | March 28, 2007 11:38 AM
Keep your eyes on Bill Richardson. People will get tired of Hillary and Obama...Once they do, Richardson will be primed to rise.
He just needs to get in a few more elbows here and there. He's hands down the most qualified candidate running.
And he won 69% of the vote running for re-election in a battleground state...
Posted by: MBW | March 28, 2007 11:37 AM
Sam, you must be kidding - HRC policies equal those of McCain or Rudy? (I don't consider Mitt a frontrunner as he hasn't a chance).
This isn't a very good format for comparing them position by position, but I think it's safe to say that there are some serious differences among the most important issues.
Posted by: JD | March 28, 2007 11:35 AM
Russian military intelligence services are reporting a flurry of activity by U.S. Armed Forces near Iran's borders, a high-ranking security source said Tuesday. "The latest military intelligence data point to heightened U.S. military preparations for both an air and ground operation against Iran," the official said, adding that the Pentagon has probably not yet made a final decision as to when an attack will be launched.
I left Iraq to get away from americans. Now where am I supposed to hide. It is beginning to look like I may have to camp out in the new york times editorial office if I don't want to get dead from americans. can't you just let me kill babies with bombs? you american donkeys were supposed to hand us victory allready. what is taking so long. we are running out of everything.
Posted by: Sand flea | March 28, 2007 11:30 AM
McCain should stress his position on immigration, take him or leave him. That's what he believes, he should run on that.
Income inequality is U shaped in the 20th century as a function of time. The top 1 percent got 20 percent of each year's income before 1920's restriction on immigration. From then to a few years after 1965 they got 10 percent. Now its back up to 20 percent from legal immigration from Kennedy's 1965 Immigration Act. Kennedy is the 8th richest senator. McCain is 7th. Of the top 8 richest senators all but one voted for McCain Kennedy S. 2611. Rockefeller didn't vote. None of the top 8 voted against it, because they are in the top 1 percent that get 20 percent of the income.
McCain married money. Kennedy inherited it. McCain should emphasize that he is better than us because of his wife's money and that is why he and Kennedy deserve 20 dollars of every 100 dollars we make.
Posted by: Old Atlantic | March 28, 2007 11:28 AM
Those poll questions and answers are terrible. They assume that each nomination is a 2-man race, and ignore the numerous other candidates on each side. This is just more evidence that the media doesn't want a real primary; it wants to anoint two candidates per party as the frontrunners and ignore everyone else.
I want to slap the 11% of Hillary supporters who say they picked her because they don't know enough about Obama, and the 12% of Obama supporters who picked him because they don't like Hillary. Then why not support Edwards, Richardson, Dodd, Biden, Kucinich, etc.? It's too early in the race to pick a candidate based on who you dislike. Support a candidate for a positive reason: Policies, experience, personality, etc. Don't act like it's a 2-man race and pick the one you dislike less. There will be plenty of time for that later.
Posted by: Blarg | March 28, 2007 11:28 AM
Is Obama's campaign flaming out? http://www.solidpolitics.com
Posted by: William | March 28, 2007 11:26 AM
Everything you say about Hillary is precisely true about every frontrunning republican as well. Will you not be voting for them either?
Posted by: Sam | March 28, 2007 11:24 AM
I will spend the whole day having a conversation with the other voices in my head.
Posted by: | March 28, 2007 11:23 AM
.Gonazles Runs Out of Conference to Avoid Question.
Atty. Gen. Alberto Gonzales today cut short a press conference about Internet safety, leaving the room at the Dirksen U.S. Courthouse in Chicago when reporters questioned him about the firings of U.S. attorneys.
The questioning was to have lasted about 15 minutes, but it ended after less than three.'
You gotta see the pictures. He literaally cuts and runs. not looking good for gonzo.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2007/03/27/gonzales-runs-out-of-conf_n_44386.html
Posted by: drindl | March 28, 2007 11:21 AM
No hatred of anyone, actually, Sam. Life is way too short.
I wouldn't vote for her, because I don't trust her policies. I think she would greatly increase the size of the government. She can't be trusted on the immigration issue. And she's very wishy-washy on a lot of important issues, especially Iraq and health care.
Posted by: JD | March 28, 2007 11:19 AM
oops, full quote:
"Honestly, Wolf, you'll barely last twenty minutes out there. I dont know what part of Neverland Senator McCain is talking about when he says we can go strolling in Baghdad."
Posted by: Sam | March 28, 2007 11:17 AM
'During an interview on "The Situation Room" this afternoon, John McCain told Wolf that he needs to "get up to speed" and stop reporting three-month-old news from Iraq. According to McCain, the surge is working! and the streets of Baghdad are safe for Americans to go strolling down. The only problem? Michael Ware, who is, ya know, in Baghdad, says McCain hasn't a clue... he said, 'I don't know what part of Neverland Senator McCain is talking about..'
That's 'moderate mccain' for you...batshi*t crazy.
Posted by: Sam | March 28, 2007 11:15 AM
'If the president's aides were using RNC emails or emails from other Republican political committees, they can't have even the vaguest claim to shielding those communications behind executive privilege.'
This might be what undoes them... hoist on their secrecy petard.
Posted by: Dawg | March 28, 2007 11:13 AM
And you have no irrational hatred of Hillary, do you, JD?
Posted by: Sam | March 28, 2007 11:10 AM
Andy R, I couldn't agree with you more. HRC has a constituency pretty much set in stone - those who like her will vote for her, and those who don't never will, and neither's mind will be changed.
As for Rudy - I'm telling, you, it comes down to how desperate the GOP is in 08. It may be a matter of: support Rudy or get HRC (or Obama). They'll come out, believe me.
Posted by: JD | March 28, 2007 11:09 AM
moral issues/abortion -- because there's only one 'moral' issue and that is government control over women's bodies.
Posted by: | March 28, 2007 11:09 AM
I think the real story here as always when talking about HRC is the dislike of her in the party. These are likely primary voters and 1/3 of them (at least ones that back obama) just don't like her. That is a rather Large hurdle to jump. I would be interested to see what Edwards or Richardson backers said. My guess is it would be fifty percent issues. The democrats who are really paying attention and shopping for a candidate are moving towards the Edwards Richardson group IMO.
The 10 percent that back Guiliani and said McCain was too moderate spells real trouble for Rudy. I would expect the 'issue' ads attacking Rudy's stances to start real soon in Iowa and South Carolina. It will be someone like the crazy catholic guy who backs Brownback who will form a 527 to take him down. No way will the christian right get behind a guy who supports gay marriage, and state-funded abortions. I don't buy the 80% argument with these folks. Alot of republicans sure, but not the hardliners.
Posted by: Andy R | March 28, 2007 11:00 AM
'Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) wanted to know why the bureau chief for San Diego Dan Dzwilewski had complained to the press about Carol Lam's firing, said that he "guaranteed" politics was involved, and that without her, a number of ongoing investigations might be jeopardized. '
Posted by: obstruction of justice | March 28, 2007 10:52 AM
'I personally believe that maybe 20% of the country absolutely hates this guy, and it goes all the way back to the close 2000 election.
No matter what policy he would come up with, the lefty extremists would hammer him regardless. Even stuff they should like, like his amnesty/immigration bill, No Child Left Behind, and Medicare part D, are all liberal laws for the most part.
The right looks at this blind hatred and considers it a form of mental illness.'
God you are hilarious. Mental illness? You mean like the way you hate Bill and Hillary Clinton? Now there's mental illness for you. And 20% -- I would bet that more like 75% percent of the country hates bush. And with very good reason -- he is destroying this country and tearing it apart.
Liberal laws? You really are a resident of the back wards. In what way is are all these gigantic corporate giveaways of taxpayer's money 'liberal'? What planet are you on?
Oh hey, are you one of those folks who thought allowing government bureacrats to paw through your underwear drawer was a good idea?
'Yesterday, FBI Director Robert Mueller appeared before the Senate Judiciary Committee to grovel for forgiveness. Over the past several years, the FBI has used thousands of National Security Letters to improperly obtain private information on citizens. The reasons, according to Mueller: "mistakes, carelessness, confusion, lack of training, lack of guidance and lack of adequate oversight."
Posted by: | March 28, 2007 10:51 AM
'The fact that 10 percent of Giuliani backers said they were behind the mayor because McCain was too moderate'
oh jeezus christ -- maccain too 'moderate' you mean, not radically wingnutty enough? clearly there are a lotta folk out there who are not taking their meds...
Posted by: | March 28, 2007 10:48 AM
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